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Table of Contents AN ANALYSIS OF THE DEVELOPMENT AND THE IMPORTANCE OF OIL AND GAS RESOURCES IN RUSSIA AND THEIR RELATIONSHIP TO THE RUSSIAN ECONOMIC GROWTH AND FOREIGN POLICY A Ph.D Dissertation by GÖKTUĞ KARA Department of International Relations Bilkent University Ankara September 2008 To my family AN ANALYSIS OF THE DEVELOPMENT AND THE IMPORTANCE OF OIL AND GAS RESOURCES IN RUSSIA AND THEIR RELATIONSHIP TO THE RUSSIAN ECONOMIC GROWTH AND FOREIGN POLICY The Institute of Economics and Social Sciences of Bilkent University by GÖKTUĞ KARA In Partial Fulfilment of the Requirements for the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY in THE DEPARTMENT OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS BİLKENT UNIVERSITY ANKARA September 2008 I certify that I have read this thesis and have found that it is fully adequate, in scope and in quality, as a thesis for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in International Relations. --------------------------------- Professor Erdal Erel Director I certify that I have read this thesis and have found that it is fully adequate, in scope and in quality, as a thesis for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in International Relations. --------------------------------- Professor Norman Stone Supervisor I certify that I have read this thesis and have found that it is fully adequate, in scope and in quality, as a thesis for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in International Relations. --------------------------------- Professor Dr. Hasan Ünal Examining Committee Member I certify that I have read this thesis and have found that it is fully adequate, in scope and in quality, as a thesis for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in International Relations. --------------------------------- Asst. Prof. Nur Bilge Criss Examining Committee Member I certify that I have read this thesis and have found that it is fully adequate, in scope and in quality, as a thesis for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in in International Relations. --------------------------------- Asst. Prof. Ömer Faruk Gençkaya Examining Committee Member I certify that I have read this thesis and have found that it is fully adequate, in scope and in quality, as a thesis for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in in International Relations. --------------------------------- Asst. Prof. Sean McMeekin Examining Committee Member ABSTRACT AN ANALYSIS OF THE DEVELOPMENT AND THE IMPORTANCE OF OIL AND GAS RESOURCES IN RUSSIA AND THEIR RELATIONSHIP TO THE RUSSIAN ECONOMIC GROWTH AND FOREIGN POLICY Kara, Göktuğ Ph.D., Department of International Relations Supervisor: Prof. Norman Stone September 2008 This dissertation analyzes the development of the oil and gas sector in Russia with a view to understand the role of these assets on the formation of Russian state interests and consequent policy prioritization, both at the domestic and the international level. The study identifies economic and political issues on which the influence of the oil and gas resources has been significant. The dissertation elucidates the various links between Russian economic development and revenues from the oil and gas sector, and well as explicit and implicit connections between Russian foreign policy and the oil and gas sector. In the changing world order, strategic manipulation, communication, persuasion and economic incentives became as important as military might or an outright threat in order to shape the outcome of international issues. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, oil and gas diplomacy, pipeline politics, subsidised energy deliveries, threats to cut-off energy deliveries coloured Russian attempts to revitalize influence throughout the territory of the former Soviet iii Union. Russia today is wedged between net consumers of energy which are competing to secure best terms for their oil and gas deliveries. As the Russian military capabilities fell after 1991, the policy around these vital resources has become the primary drivers of Russian domestic and foreign agenda. Another aim of this analysis is to contribute to the study of international relations by emphasizing its analysis of a state’s domestic agenda’s effect on the international arena. Domestic factors have a crucial relevance to relationships shared by actors at the international level. This dissertation will use Russia’s development of the oil and gas sector as a case for evaluating and understanding the relationship between domestic and international issues. Keywords: Russia, oil, gas, energy policy, energy security, Russian economy, oligarchs, Yeltsin, Putin, iv ÖZET RUSYA’DA PETROL VE GAZ KAYNAKLARININ GELİŞİMİ, ÖNEMİ VE BU KAYNAKLARIN RUS DIŞ POLİTİKASI VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜMESİ İLE İLİŞKİSİNİN BİR ANALİZİ Kara, Göktuğ Doktora, Uluslararası İlişkiler Bölümü Tez Yöneticisi: Prof. Norman Stone Eylül 2008 Bu tez, Rusya’daki petrol ve gaz sektörü gelişimini, Rus Devleti çıkarlarının ve politika önceliklerinin oluşumu ile ilgili bu değerlerin rolünü anlamak amacıyla hem ulusal hem de uluslararası seviyede incelemektedir. Tez, petrol ve gaz kaynaklarının etkisinin önemli olduğu ekonomik ve siyasi konuları belirlemektedir. Tez, Rusya’nın ekonomik gelişimi ile petrol ve gaz sektöründen elde edilen gelirler arasında ve aynı zamanda Rus dış politikası ve petrol ve gaz sektörü arasında açık ve kapalı çeşitli bağlantıları izah etmektedir. Değişen dünya düzeninde, stratejik manipülasyon, iletişim, ikna ve ekonomik tedbirler, uluslararası hususların sonuçlarını biçimlendirme hususunda askeri güç veya direkt tehlikeler kadar önemlidir. Sovyetler Birliği’nin çöküşünün ardından, petrol ve gaz diplomasisi, boru hattı politikası, sübvansiyonlu enerji teslimleri, enerji teslimlerinin kesilmesi tehlikeleri, eski Sovyetler Birliği bölgesi genelinde Rus etkisini canlandırmaya yönelik girişimleri renklendirmiştir. Rusya bugün, petrol ve gazlarını en iyi koşullarda güvenceye almak için rekabet eden net enerji tüketicileri arasında sıkışıp kalmıştır. Rusya’nın 1991 yılında v askeri kabiliyetlerinin azalmasından sonra, bu önemli kaynaklar etrafındaki politika Rusya’nın dahili ve harici gündeminin birincil etmeni olmuştur Bu çalışmanın diğer bir amacı, bir devletin ülke içi gündeminin uluslararası arenadaki etkisinin analizini vurgulayarak uluslararası ilişkilerin araştırmalarına katkıda bulunmaktır. Ülke içi faktörlerin, uluslararası düzeydeki oyuncuların paylaştığı ilişkiler hususunda can alıcı bir bağlantısı vardır. Bu tez Rusya’nın petrol ve gaz sektöründeki gelişiminde ulusal ve uluslararası ilişkileri değerlendirmek ve anlamak için kullanılacaktır. Anahtar Kelimeler: Rusya, petrol, gaz, enerji politikasi, Rus ekonomisi, oligarşi, Yeltsin, Putin vi ACKNOWLEDGMENTS It has been a tough and long journey that required hard-work, discipline and sacrifice. I am delighted to reach this point where I can express my gratitude to those who have been helpful and can claim a share in the victory. First and foremost, I shall remember the colleagues and the members of the international relations department at the Bilkent University. The cooperation and collaboration from Professor Norman Stone has provided me with the best working conditions. His understanding and determination in the most critical moments is integral to the success of this dissertation. I would also like to thank my dissertation committee members Professor Dr. Hasan Ünal and Asst. Prof. Emel Osmançavuşoğlu for their support. Strategic and academic guidance from Prof. Ünal was precious. I am grateful to Asst. Prof. Hasan Ali Karasar for his friendship, guidance and for making his office available whenever I asked for it. Of course, I shall always remember Muge Keller’s smiling and inviting face who has now become the longest standing member of the department secretariat, an idol. Apart from the academic world, there are those who have carried along with me in this journey and shared my burden. My parents, Kamil and Nermin, deserve a special place. Their love, compassion and trust in me gave me the internal strength to carry on at vii times when I was about to give up. I am who I am thanks to their confidence, care and support. I am indebted to Sabri Çarmıklı and İlhan Tekin for their mentoring and the enourmous backing they mobilised from London. It would not have been possible without their help. My special thanks to those friends, Orkun, Ilkim, Burcu, Francois and Yener who stood by me and encourared me to finish what I have started. Lastly, I am grateful to my love, Gamze, who has been patient and supportive over the last year and a half. Her existence was a stimulus to move things forward and an endless source of enthusiasm. viii TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT……………………………………………………………………………...iii ÖZET ................................................................................................................................. iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ................................................................................................ v TABLE OF CONTENTS................................................................................................... vi LIST OF TABLES ...........................................................................................................viii LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................... ix CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION: METHODOLOGY, THEORY AND THE ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK........................................................................................ 1 1.1 Subject and Scope ..................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Methodology
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