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Northern Sea Route Cargo Flows and Infrastructure- Present State And Northern Sea Route Cargo Flows and Infrastructure – Present State and Future Potential By Claes Lykke Ragner FNI Report 13/2000 FRIDTJOF NANSENS INSTITUTT THE FRIDTJOF NANSEN INSTITUTE Tittel/Title Sider/Pages Northern Sea Route Cargo Flows and Infrastructure – Present 124 State and Future Potential Publikasjonstype/Publication Type Nummer/Number FNI Report 13/2000 Forfatter(e)/Author(s) ISBN Claes Lykke Ragner 82-7613-400-9 Program/Programme ISSN 0801-2431 Prosjekt/Project Sammendrag/Abstract The report assesses the Northern Sea Route’s commercial potential and economic importance, both as a transit route between Europe and Asia, and as an export route for oil, gas and other natural resources in the Russian Arctic. First, it conducts a survey of past and present Northern Sea Route (NSR) cargo flows. Then follow discussions of the route’s commercial potential as a transit route, as well as of its economic importance and relevance for each of the Russian Arctic regions. These discussions are summarized by estimates of what types and volumes of NSR cargoes that can realistically be expected in the period 2000-2015. This is then followed by a survey of the status quo of the NSR infrastructure (above all the ice-breakers, ice-class cargo vessels and ports), with estimates of its future capacity. Based on the estimated future NSR cargo potential, future NSR infrastructure requirements are calculated and compared with the estimated capacity in order to identify the main, future infrastructure bottlenecks for NSR operations. The information presented in the report is mainly compiled from data and research results that were published through the International Northern Sea Route Programme (INSROP) 1993-99, but considerable updates have been made using recent information, statistics and analyses from various sources. Stikkord/Key Words Northern Sea Route, Russia, Arctic, shipping Bestilling til/Orders to: Fridtjof Nansen Institute, Postboks 326, N-1326 Lysaker, Norway. Tel: (47) 6711 1900 Fax: (47) 6711 1910 Email: [email protected] Preface The Northern Sea Route (NSR) is the Russian name for what is often known outside Russia as the Northeast Passage (NEP). In Europe, the term Northeast Passage has for centuries nurtured visions – that have never completely died out – of an adventurous shortcut that may bring about a revolution in sea trade between Europe and East Asia. In Russia, the term Northern Sea Route holds different connotations, and mainly evokes visions of a grand national waterway, created by the efforts of the Russian people, and mainly an internal transport corridor for bringing natural resources out, and for bringing deliveries in to the many settlements in the Russian Arctic. The Russian emphasis on the route’s internal character is further seen from the formal Russian definition, by which the NSR is strictly confined by the Novaya Zemlya islands in the west and the Bering Strait in the east. This report tries to assess the sea route’s commercial potential and economic importance. It does so by first making a survey of past and present Northern Sea Route (NSR) cargo flows. The route’s economic potential and importance, both as an international transit route and as a transport corridor to and from the Russian Arctic regions, is then discussed, before forwarding estimates of future cargo potential. An overview of the status quo of the NSR infrastructure (above all the ice-breakers, ice-class cargo vessels and ports) is also made, with estimates of its future capacity. Based on the estimated future cargo potential, future infrastructure requirements are calculated and compared with the estimated capacity in order to identify possible future bottlenecks for NSR operations. A large portion of the information presented in this report is compiled from data and research results that were published through the International Northern Sea Route Programme (INSROP) 1993-99. The establishment of INSROP was brought about by the formal opening of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) to non-Russian vessels in 1991, and was a multi- disciplinary, international research programme with the aim of investigating all relevant aspects and consequences of international shipping on the NSR. The programme involved more than 450 researchers from 14 countries, approximately half of them from Russia. The INSROP data has been updated and supplemented by data and analyses from various sources – the most important ones being the NSR User Conference in Oslo November 1999, and a report commissioned by the EU body Tacis in 2000 to identify the Northern Sea Route’s infrastructure bottlenecks. This author is most indebted both to the many INSROP scientists who have provided much of the baseline data, as well as the Russian and Dutch scientists that participated in the Tacis project. Table of Contents 1 The Northern Sea Route - Introduction and Basic Features........................................ 1 1.1 Why make commercial studies of the Northern Sea Route?.......................................... 1 1.2 Historic development of the Northern Sea Route........................................................... 1 1.3 Definition of the study area............................................................................................ 2 1.4 Legal, administrative and operational framework of NSR shipping.............................. 3 1.5 The physical environment of NSR shipping................................................................... 7 1.5.1 Shallow seas...........................................................................................................................................7 1.5.2 Ice conditions.........................................................................................................................................8 1.5.3 Climatic change ...................................................................................................................................10 2 Historic and Actual NSR Freight Flows ....................................................................... 11 2.1 Transport directions...................................................................................................... 11 2.1.1 Cabotage import from other regions of Russia..................................................................................11 2.1.2 Cabotage export to other regions of Russia.......................................................................................14 2.1.3 Intra-Arctic cabotage...........................................................................................................................14 2.1.4 Foreign import.....................................................................................................................................14 2.1.5 Foreign export......................................................................................................................................14 2.1.6 Transit...................................................................................................................................................14 2.1.7 Eastern NSR vs. western NSR............................................................................................................15 2.2 NSR commodities......................................................................................................... 15 2.2.1 Hydrocarbons .......................................................................................................................................15 2.2.2 Non-ferrous metals and ores ...............................................................................................................16 2.2.3 Timber and wood products .................................................................................................................17 2.2.4 Dry cargo and fuel provisions to Arctic settlements.........................................................................17 2.2.5 Materials for oil/gas development ......................................................................................................18 2.2.6 Coal.......................................................................................................................................................18 2.2.7 Passenger transport..............................................................................................................................19 2.3 Conclusions .................................................................................................................. 19 3 Transit Traffic Potential................................................................................................ 21 3.1 Transit cargo potential.................................................................................................. 21 3.1.1 Ferrous metals......................................................................................................................................24 3.1.2 Fertilisers..............................................................................................................................................24 3.1.3 Nuclear fuel..........................................................................................................................................25 3.1.4 Cargoes not suitable for NSR transit..................................................................................................25 3.1.5 Conclusions – transit cargo potential .................................................................................................26
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