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Northern Sea Route Cargo Flows and Infrastructure –
Present State and Future Potential

By Claes Lykke Ragner
FNI Report 13/2000

FRIDTJOF NANSENS INSTITUTT
THE FRIDTJOF NANSEN INSTITUTE

Tittel/Title

Northern Sea Route Cargo Flows and Infrastructure – Present

Sider/Pages

124
State and Future Potential

Publikasjonstype/Publication Type

FNI Report

Nummer/Number

13/2000

Forfatter(e)/Author(s)

Claes Lykke Ragner

ISBN

82-7613-400-9

  • Program/Programme
  • ISSN

0801-2431

Prosjekt/Project Sammendrag/Abstract

The report assesses the Northern Sea Route’s commercial potential and economic importance, both as a transit route between Europe and Asia, and as an export route for oil, gas and other natural resources in the Russian Arctic. First, it conducts a survey of past and present Northern Sea Route (NSR) cargo flows. Then follow discussions of the route’s commercial potential as a transit route, as well as of its economic importance and relevance for each of the Russian Arctic regions. These discussions are summarized by estimates of what types and volumes of NSR cargoes that can realistically be expected in the period 2000-2015. This is then followed by a survey of the status quo of the NSR infrastructure (above all the ice-breakers, ice-class cargo vessels and ports), with estimates of its future capacity. Based on the estimated future NSR cargo potential, future NSR infrastructure requirements are calculated and compared with the estimated capacity in order to identify the main, future infrastructure bottlenecks for NSR operations.

The information presented in the report is mainly compiled from data and research results that were published through the International Northern Sea Route Programme (INSROP) 1993-99, but considerable updates have been made using recent information, statistics and analyses from various sources.

Stikkord/Key Words

Northern Sea Route, Russia, Arctic, shipping

Bestilling til/Orders to:

Fridtjof Nansen Institute, Postboks 326, N-1326 Lysaker, Norway. Tel: (47) 6711 1900 Fax: (47) 6711 1910 Email: [email protected]

Preface

The Northern Sea Route (NSR) is the Russian name for what is often known outside Russia as the Northeast Passage (NEP). In Europe, the term Northeast Passage has for centuries nurtured visions – that have never completely died out – of an adventurous shortcut that may bring about a revolution in sea trade between Europe and East Asia. In Russia, the term Northern Sea Route holds different connotations, and mainly evokes visions of a grand national waterway, created by the efforts of the Russian people, and mainly an internal transport corridor for bringing natural resources out, and for bringing deliveries in to the many settlements in the Russian Arctic. The Russian emphasis on the route’s internal character is further seen from the formal Russian definition, by which the NSR is strictly confined by the Novaya Zemlya islands in the west and the Bering Strait in the east.

This report tries to assess the sea route’s commercial potential and economic importance. It does so by first making a survey of past and present Northern Sea Route (NSR) cargo flows. The route’s economic potential and importance, both as an international transit route and as a transport corridor to and from the Russian Arctic regions, is then discussed, before forwarding estimates of future cargo potential. An overview of the status quo of the NSR infrastructure (above all the ice-breakers, ice-class cargo vessels and ports) is also made, with estimates of its future capacity. Based on the estimated future cargo potential, future infrastructure requirements are calculated and compared with the estimated capacity in order to identify possible future bottlenecks for NSR operations.

A large portion of the information presented in this report is compiled from data and research results that were published through the International Northern Sea Route Programme (INSROP) 1993-99. The establishment of INSROP was brought about by the formal opening of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) to non-Russian vessels in 1991, and was a multidisciplinary, international research programme with the aim of investigating all relevant aspects and consequences of international shipping on the NSR. The programme involved more than 450 researchers from 14 countries, approximately half of them from Russia.

The INSROP data has been updated and supplemented by data and analyses from various sources – the most important ones being the NSR User Conference in Oslo November 1999, and a report commissioned by the EU body Tacis in 2000 to identify the Northern Sea Route’s infrastructure bottlenecks. This author is most indebted both to the many INSROP scientists who have provided much of the baseline data, as well as the Russian and Dutch scientists that participated in the Tacis project.

Table of Contents

  • 1
  • The Northern Sea Route - Introduction and Basic Features........................................ 1

1.1 Why make commercial studies of the Northern Sea Route?.......................................... 1 1.2 Historic development of the Northern Sea Route........................................................... 1 1.3 Definition of the study area............................................................................................ 2 1.4 Legal, administrative and operational framework of NSR shipping.............................. 3 1.5 The physical environment of NSR shipping................................................................... 7

1.5.1 1.5.2 1.5.3
Shallow seas...........................................................................................................................................7 Ice conditions.........................................................................................................................................8 Climatic change ...................................................................................................................................10

  • 2
  • Historic and Actual NSR Freight Flows....................................................................... 11

2.1 Transport directions...................................................................................................... 11

2.1.1 2.1.2 2.1.3 2.1.4 2.1.5 2.1.6 2.1.7
Cabotage import from other regions of Russia..................................................................................11 Cabotage export to other regions of Russia.......................................................................................14 Intra-Arctic cabotage...........................................................................................................................14 Foreign import.....................................................................................................................................14 Foreign export......................................................................................................................................14 Transit...................................................................................................................................................14 Eastern NSR vs. western NSR............................................................................................................15

2.2 NSR commodities......................................................................................................... 15

2.2.1 2.2.2 2.2.3 2.2.4 2.2.5 2.2.6 2.2.7
Hydrocarbons .......................................................................................................................................15 Non-ferrous metals and ores ...............................................................................................................16 Timber and wood products .................................................................................................................17 Dry cargo and fuel provisions to Arctic settlements.........................................................................17 Materials for oil/gas development ......................................................................................................18 Coal.......................................................................................................................................................18 Passenger transport..............................................................................................................................19

2.3 Conclusions .................................................................................................................. 19

  • 3
  • Transit Traffic Potential................................................................................................ 21

3.1 Transit cargo potential.................................................................................................. 21

3.1.1 3.1.2 3.1.3 3.1.4 3.1.5
Ferrous metals......................................................................................................................................24 Fertilisers..............................................................................................................................................24 Nuclear fuel..........................................................................................................................................25 Cargoes not suitable for NSR transit..................................................................................................25 Conclusions – transit cargo potential .................................................................................................26

3.2 Basic factors for commercial NSR transit traffic......................................................... 26

3.2.1 3.2.2 3.2.3 3.2.4
NSR tariffs ...........................................................................................................................................26 NSR ice-insurance premiums .............................................................................................................29 Vessel size ............................................................................................................................................29 Construction costs ...............................................................................................................................30

3.3 Cost comparison for NSR-Suez transit shipping.......................................................... 31

3.3.1 3.3.2
Results ..................................................................................................................................................31 Possible remedies ................................................................................................................................35

3.4 Conclusions .................................................................................................................. 36

  • 4
  • The NSR’s Significance for the Economic Development of the Russian Arctic ....... 37

4.1 Chukotka Autonomous Okrug...................................................................................... 37

4.1.1 4.1.2 4.1.3 4.1.4
Geography and infrastructure .............................................................................................................37 Probable future cargoes.......................................................................................................................38 Less probable cargo sources ...............................................................................................................38 What difference can the NSR make for Chukotka A.O.?..................................................................39

4.2 Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) ........................................................................................ 39

  • 4.2.1
  • Geography and infrastructure .............................................................................................................39

4.2.2 4.2.3 4.2.4
Probable future NSR cargoes..............................................................................................................41 Less probable cargo sources ...............................................................................................................42 What difference can the NSR make for the Republic of Sakha?......................................................43

4.3 Krasnoyarsk Kray (including Taymyr Autonomous Okrug)........................................ 43

4.3.1 4.3.2 4.3.3 4.3.4
Geography and infrastructure .............................................................................................................43 Probable future cargoes.......................................................................................................................44 Less probable cargo sources ...............................................................................................................46 What difference can the NSR make for Krasnoyarsk Kray?............................................................47

4.4 Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug ............................................................................ 48

4.4.1 4.4.2 4.4.3 4.4.4
Geography and infrastructure .............................................................................................................48 Probable, future cargoes......................................................................................................................49 Less probable cargo sources ...............................................................................................................51 What difference can the NSR make for Yamalo-Nenets A.O.?........................................................51

4.5 Nenets Autonomous Okrug .......................................................................................... 52

4.5.1 4.5.2 4.5.3
Geography and infrastructure .............................................................................................................52 Probable, future cargoes......................................................................................................................52 What difference can the NSR make for Nenets A.O.? ......................................................................54

4.6 Murmansk and Arkhangelsk Oblasti............................................................................ 54 4.7 Conclusions .................................................................................................................. 55

  • 5
  • Forecasting of Future NSR Cargo Flows, 2000 - 2015................................................ 57

5.1 Hydrocarbons................................................................................................................ 57 5.2 Non-ferrous metals and ores......................................................................................... 58 5.3 Timber and wood products........................................................................................... 59 5.4 Provisions and fuel to Arctic settlements ..................................................................... 59 5.5 Materials for oil and gas development ......................................................................... 60 5.6 Coal .............................................................................................................................. 60 5.7 Transit cargoes.............................................................................................................. 60 5.8 Conclusion.................................................................................................................... 61

  • 6
  • The NSR Infrastructure: Status, Outlook and Future Requirements....................... 65

6.1 The NSR cargo fleet..................................................................................................... 65

6.7.1 6.7.2 6.7.3
The shipping companies......................................................................................................................65 Present state .........................................................................................................................................68 The future.............................................................................................................................................69

6.2 The ice-breakers ........................................................................................................... 72

6.2.1 6.2.2 6.2.3 6.2.4
Existing fleet ........................................................................................................................................72 Future available fleet...........................................................................................................................73 Future required fleet............................................................................................................................75 Conclusions ..........................................................................................................................................76

6.3 NSR seaports ................................................................................................................ 76

6.3.1 6.3.2 6.3.3 6.3.4 6.3.5 6.3.6 6.3.7 6.3.8 6.3.9
Murmansk.............................................................................................................................................80 Arkhangelsk.........................................................................................................................................81 Amderma..............................................................................................................................................82 Kharasavey...........................................................................................................................................82 Novyy Port ...........................................................................................................................................82 Yamburg...............................................................................................................................................83 Dikson..................................................................................................................................................83 Dudinka.................................................................................................................................................83 Igarka....................................................................................................................................................84
6.3.10 Khatanga...............................................................................................................................................85 6.3.11 Tiksi......................................................................................................................................................85 6.3.12 Zelëny Mys ..........................................................................................................................................86 6.3.13 Pevek....................................................................................................................................................86 6.3.14 Mys Shmidta........................................................................................................................................87 6.3.15 Provideniya...........................................................................................................................................87 6.3.16 Other ports............................................................................................................................................88 6.3.17 Conclusions / future development ......................................................................................................88

6.4 Ice-information and ice-forecasting.............................................................................. 89

  • 6.4.1
  • Satellite monitoring .............................................................................................................................89

6.5 Communication and navigational aids ......................................................................... 90

6.5.1 6.5.2 6.5.3 6.5.4 6.5.5 6.5.6 6.5.7
Satellite communication......................................................................................................................90 Radio communication..........................................................................................................................91 Pilotage.................................................................................................................................................91 Nautical charts ....................................................................................................................................91 NSR Navigation guide.........................................................................................................................92 Coastal navigation aids........................................................................................................................92 Satellite navigation..............................................................................................................................93

6.6 Accident preparedness: search & rescue, repair facilities............................................ 93

6.6.1 6.6.2 6.6.3
Search & rescue operations.................................................................................................................93 Ship repair facilities.............................................................................................................................93 Conclusion – search & rescue.............................................................................................................94

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    Ornis Hungarica 2018. 26(2): 222–231. DOI: 10.1515/orhu-2018-0030 Migratory movements of Peregrine Falcons Falco peregrinus, breeding on the Yamal Peninsula, Russia Vasiliy SOKOLOV1, Aleksandr SOKOLOV2 & Andrew DIXON3* Received: October 30, 2018 – Revised: November 11, 2018 – Accepted: December 21, 2018 This is a contribution submitted to the Proceedings of the World Conference on the Peregrine Falcon in Buda- pest in September 2017. Sokolov, V., Sokolov, A. & Dixon, A. 2018. Migratory movements of Peregrine Falcons Falco peregrinus, breeding on the Yamal Peninsula, Russia. – Ornis Hungarica 26(2): 222–231. DOI: 10.1515/orhu-2018-0030 Abstract We describe the migration pathways of 12 Peregrine Falcons Falco peregrinus cali­ dus breeding on the Yamal Peninsula, Russia. Overall, we tracked 30 complete (17 autumn and 13 spring) and 5 incomplete seasonal migration routes. Winter ranges extended from the Atlantic coast of southern Portugal in the west to Kish Island in the Arabian Gulf in the east, and from Krasnodar in southern Russia in the north to South Sudan. Eight birds were tracked to their wintering sites, with migration pathways ranging from 3,557 km to 8,114 km, taking 14 to 61 days to complete. Birds spent an average of 190 days in their winter ranges (range 136 to 212 days, N = 14), and departure on spring migration took place in April. The home ranges used by win- tering Peregrines were varied including coastal habitats, agricultural landscapes, savannah, desert and an urban city. Departure from breeding areas took place in September with birds returning in May. Peregrines exhibited a high degree of fidelity to their winter ranges, with four birds tracked over three successive migrations until the 2012 breeding season.
  • The Concept of Reducing the Man-Made Impact Of

    The Concept of Reducing the Man-Made Impact Of

    UDC 629.764.7 DOI: 10.25206/2588-0373-2019-3-2-115-126 THE CONCEPT OF REDUCING THE MAN-MADE IMPACT OMSK SCIENTIFIC BULLETIN. SERIES AVIATION ВЕСТНИК. СЕРИЯ АВИАЦИОННО ОМСКИЙ НАУЧНЫЙ OF LAUNCHES OF THE PROMISING IRTYSH LAUNCH VEHICLE IN THE IMPACT AREAS OF THE BAIKONUR COSMODROME B. T. Suimenbayev1, V. I. Trushlyakov2, G. T. Yermoldina1, Zh. B. Suimenbayeva1, A. M. Bapyshev1 1 - Institute of Information and Computational Technologies, 3 NO. 2 2019 ENGINEERING VOL. ROCKET AND POWER Republic of Kazakhstan, Almaty, Pushkin St., 125, 050010 2 - Omsk State Technical University, 3 № 2 2019 МАШИНОСТРОЕНИЕ ТОМ И ЭНЕРГЕТИЧЕСКОЕ РАКЕТНОЕ Russia, Omsk, Mira Ave., 11, 644050 Scientific and methodological approaches to minimizing the man-made impact of launches of promising carrier rockets of the «Irtysh» type by oxygen-kerosene main liquid-propellant rocket engines of the Baiterek rocket complex in areas of falling of the Baikonur cosmodrome are considered. The basic directions for reducing the anthropogenic impact of the spent booster of the first stage of the «Irtysh» type LV in the areas of falling are: determination of optimal areas for the spent booster to fall in selected areas of the FA with the highest stability and minimum cost of works on restoring the soil state — (A); controlled descent of the spent booster after separation from the LV to the designated section of the fall with an accuracy not exceeding the size of the selected optimal section — (B). To solve problems of direction A, it is proposed to create an additional information and analytical system of the area of falling.