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Argus Russian Coal Issue 17-36 | Monday 9 October 2017 MARKET COmmENTARY PRICES Turkey lifts coal imports from Russia Russian coal prices $/t Turkey increased receipts of Russian thermal coal by 9pc on Delivery basis NAR kcal/kg Delivery period 6 Oct ± 29 Sep the year in January-August, to 7.79mn t, according to data fob Baltic ports 6,000 Nov-Dec 17 86.97 -0.20 from statistics agency Tuik, amid higher demand from utili- fob Black Sea ports 6,000 Nov-Dec 17 90.63 -0.25 ties and households. Russian material replaced supplies from cif Marmara* 6,000 Nov 17 100.33 0.33 South Africa, which redirected part of shipments to more fob Vostochny 6,000 Nov-Dec 17 100.00 1.00 profitable markets in Asia-Pacific this year. fob Vostochny 5,500 Nov-Dec 17 87.0 0 1.75 *assessment of Russian and non-Russian coal In August Russian coal receipts rose to over 1.26mn t, up by 15pc on the year and by around 19pc on the month. Russian coal prices $/t This year demand for sized Russian coal is higher com- Delivery basis NAR kcal/kg Delivery period Low High pared with last year because of colder winter weather in 2016-2017, a Russian supplier says. Demand for coal fines fob Baltic ports 6,000 Nov-Dec 17 85.25 88.00 fob Black Sea ports 6,000 Nov-Dec 17 89.50 91.00 from utilities has also risen amid the launch of new coal- fob Vostochny 6,000 Nov-Dec 17 100.00 100.00 fired capacity, the source adds. Turkey has added 700MW of fob Vostochny 5,500 Nov-Dec 17 87.0 0 87.0 0 imported coal-fired capacity since August last year. And a decrease in deliveries from South Africa to Turkey also prompted Turkish consumers to buy more coal from Argus fob Baltic ports spot coal assessment $/t other origins. Turkey reduced imports of South African coal fob Baltic cif ARA by 45pc on the year to only 951,000t in January-August, 100 as South Africa has redirected part of shipments to Asia- 95 Pacific this year, where prices are higher compared with the 90 Mediterranean. 85 As a result, South Africa's share of Turkey's thermal coal 80 hhh import mix fell in the first eight months of this year to 5pc from 9pc in the same period a year earlier, while Russia 75 slightly increased its share — by one percentage point on 70 the year to 39pc (see table and graphs). Although in August 65 imports from South Africa rebounded to their highest since 60 March 2016 — to 380,000t, up from about 100,000t in August 27 Sep 16 29 Dec 16 31 Mar 17 06 Jul 17 06 Oct 17 last year and only 64,000t in July. Argus fob Vostochny spot coal assessment $/t fob Vostochny fob Newcastle 120 CONTENTS 110 Coaster freight rates leap at southern Russian ports 3 Latvian ports boost coal throughputs despite rail cuts 4 100 SDS-Ugol sells coal assets 5 hhh 90 Russian prices pick up in Asia-Pacific 5 Netback prices 7-11 80 Data: Coal production in Russia, September (preliminary) 12 Data: Planned rail shipments of coal to ports 70 27 Sep 16 29 Dec 16 31 Mar 17 06 Jul 17 06 Oct 17 and border crossing in October 2017 13-29 Copyright © 2017 Argus Media group Argus Russian Coal Issue 17-36 | Monday 9 October 2017 But Colombia gained the most from lower deliveries to Turkish thermal coal imports ’000t Turkey from South Africa. Colombia increased shipments to Jan-Aug 2017 Jan-Aug 2016 ± 17/16 ±% 17/16 Turkey by 13pc to 10.65mn t in January-August, increasing its Colombia 10,645 9,398 1,247 13 market share by 4 percentage points to 54pc over the same Russia 7,792 7,141 651 9 period. Colombian coal imports jumped in August by 77pc South Africa 951 1,738 -787 -45 on the year to 1.72mn t, but this was just 4pc higher on the Other 393 656 -263 -40 month. Colombian suppliers usually deliver coal to Turkey by Total 19,781 18,933 848 4 Capesize vessels, which results in lower freight costs, increasing competitiveness of Colombian coal compared with other origins, including Russia, on the cfr Turkey basis. Invest-Uglesbyt and others, shipping directly and through Colombian coal is mostly used for power generation in trading firms. Turkey. Russia is Turkey's second-largest supplier of thermal “Colombian coal delivered by Capesize vessels remains coal after Colombia. Russia usually sends thermal coal for the most competitive in Turkey,” the supplier says. Turkish power plants on Panamax vessels from Baltic Sea Major Russian thermal coal suppliers to Turkey include ports or Ukrainian Black Sea ports. Turkish utilities, as well Kru, which ships coal through trading firm Carbo One, and as cement producers, consume Russian thermal coal fines. SDS-Ugol, which also delivers coal through trading company Russia also ships sized coal to Turkish households, mainly in — Mir Trade. These two suppliers together account for the small parcels from Black Sea and Azov Sea ports, which are lion’s share of Russian exports to Turkey. Smaller suppli- in shallow waters and only able to accommodate handysize ers are Suek, Resurs, Stroyservis, the Kiyzassky opencast, vessels or coasters. Freight rates for Panamax prompt deliveries $/t Turkish thermal coal imports by origins in Jan-Aug 17 % 6 Oct ± 29 Sep Russia Vostochny^ — South Korea 5.50 -0.30 39 Vostochny^ — Taiwan 7.10 -0.40 Vostochny^ — Japan 6.00 -0.20 Vostochny^ — China 6.90 -0.30 Vanino — China 6.10 -0.30 Vanino — Japan 4.90 -0.20 Vanino — Taiwan 6.20 -0.30 South Africa 5 Vanino — South Korea 4.90 -0.20 Colombia Vanino — India* 7.80 -0.10 54 Other 2 Baltic ports — ARA 7.0 0 0.00 Murmansk — Rotterdam 6.80 0.50 — Tuik *Rates for Capesize deliveries; ^General cargo terminal PPK-1 Freight from Baltic ports to ARA, Panamax $/t Turkish thermal coal imports by origins in Jan-Aug 16 % 12 Russia 38 11 10 9 South Africa 8 hhh 9 7 Other 3 6 Colombia 50 5 — Tuik 07 Oct 16 06 Jan 17 07 Apr 17 07 Jul 17 06 Oct 17 Copyright © 2017 Argus Media group Page 2 of 30 Argus Russian Coal Issue 17-36 | Monday 9 October 2017 More demand for coal in Turkey Novorossiysk is a major southern Russian coal-handling port. In January-August Turkey increased total thermal coal im- It can accommodate vessels with a draught of 11-13.4m and a ports by 5pc on the year to 19.78mn t, as receipts in August deadweight of 40,000-45,000t. reached their highest level since November last month — Higher freight rates have already limited demand for 3.42mn t, which is 54pc or 1.2mn t more than a year earlier, Russian coal cargoes, making their price less competitive on Tuik data show. The growth was a result of higher consump- the regional market. tion at coal-fired plants. “Sellers offering coal from Rostov, Azov, Yeisk, Temryuk Coal-fired power output by generators utilising imported and Taganrog terminals on the spot market might not find coal rose by 12.7pc year-on-year to 5.01TWh in August, a any demand in Turkey because prices on cfr Turkey basis are third consecutive monthly rise, according to data from grid too high,” a trader said. operator Teias. And capacity utilisation at coal-fired plants The NAR 6,000 kcal/kg thermal coal price on fob Black reached 81pc in August, its highest since at least January Sea and Azov Sea ports basis was assessed by Argus at 2016, based on data provided by the energy ministry and $90.63/t on 6 October, which implies a cfr Turkey price of market operator Epias. $104-125/t, depending on the seller and port of destination. Dark spreads, a proxy for coal-fired plant profitability, The maximum acceptable level is currently $98-100/t cfr. rose in June-August, encouraging increased output. And Seasonally high demand for vessels during peak grain Turkish coal burn may continue to rise as the winter heating exports prompted vessel owners to raise their freight rates season approaches. in August. And rates kept rising in September-October. In August-September, Russian Railways (RZD) limited coal Coaster freight rates leap at southern Russian shipments to some southern ports to speed up the transport ports of construction materials and grain. Freight costs for small bulk carriers on routes from Russia's Unfavourable weather conditions also supported higher Azov and Black Sea ports to Turkey rose by almost 300pc on freight rates, with vessel owners keen to hedge against pos- the year in October, reflecting heavy weather conditions and sible risks linked to vessel downtime. the peak season for grain exports. And rates might stay at Russian ports in the Azov Sea and Black Sea suspended the current level until the first half of November, when they operations from 25 September to 3 October after a storm could start falling with the end of the grain export season warning. RZD imposed a number of limitations on coal de- and lower demand for coal from Turkish buyers, according to liveries to southern ports to ease rail congestion. All ports market participants. resumed operations last week after the weather improved At the start of October, freight rates for 3,000t river-sea and pressure on ports' infrastructure eased.
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