Opinion

CLIMATE CHANGE End of the carbon war? World-changing report petroleum technology, we know it

The new report hailed by Leggett is technically feasible to bury CO2 was prepared by a Task Force on safely in subsurface reservoirs, once Climate-related Financial we’ve made use of the carbon. Disclosures (TCFD), chaired by Obituaries for the fossil-fuel Michael Bloomberg, former New industry are premature. York City Mayor and CEO of Here, I should declare my hand. Bloomberg. The task force was set I’m a geologist with a long-standing up in December 2015 by the G20’s involvement with the resource Financial Stability Board, chaired by industry – formerly with BP Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank Exploration, most recently as of England. adviser to BHP. I might perhaps be According to Leggett, the TCFD expected to be in the ranks of those will give investors: ‘… visibility of who have resisted the Anti-carbon how climate-change risk will affect Army. I’m not in those ranks, individual businesses, and a because I trust messages from roadmap for reacting to it.’ the rocks. Investors appear to be using that visibility. An announcement by Rock solid argument Bloomberg and Carney in Paris, on Leggett named the ‘carbon war’ in 12 December 2017, claims initial 1999. That same year saw the success for the TCFD: ‘237 publication of the first in a crucial companies with a combined market series of studies of past changes in capitalisation of over $6.3tn have climate, chronicled in the geological publicly committed to support the record. This body of observational TCFD. This includes over 150 science independently supported financial firms, responsible for the concern of climate scientists assets of over $81.7tn.’ TCFD is now about human-induced climate leading the commercial world change. Dr Bryan Lovell OBE CGeol MEI, along the path to a low-carbon The ability to analyse past economy. If a particular company changes in climate on a near- Senior Research Fellow in Earth does not think this is a wise course human timescale was Sciences, University of Cambridge*, to follow, they can bet against it – demonstrated in 1999 in a paper in hoping their investors will share Nature by Richard Norris and suggests victory is in sight in the their views. Ursula Rohl, in which they describe so-called ‘carbon war’ in the climate So far, so peaceful. But Leggett’s a core of 55mn-year-old rocks claim of victory in the carbon war recovered from beneath the sea bed change debate. suggests that animosity to fossil of the North Atlantic Ocean. These fuels will persist given that the rocks contain evidence of a rapid ew York City is taking BP, ‘…intention is for the capital and large input of carbon to the Chevron, ConocoPhillips, markets to behave consistently Earth’s atmosphere, comparable in N ExxonMobil and Shell with the aims of the Paris size and rapidity to that for which to court over climate change Agreement on climate change; we are now responsible. The same (see bit.ly/2p1Yscn). This which is to say progressively retreat rocks also contain evidence of rapid unleashing of lawyers in pursuit of from fossil fuels and increasingly change in climate caused by that billions of dollars appears to raise favour clean-energy investments, injection of carbon, creating the prospect of a meaty battle. But not least renewables.’ inimical conditions for various is this merely a late skirmish in a forms of life. In a commentary long global conflict that is coming Too soon for obituary published in the same issue of to an end? Do we really have to retreat from Nature, Gerald Dickens states that: Victory is in sight for the coal, gas and oil? Many readers of ‘…we can now begin to view aspects environmental forces, according to Petroleum Review will hope not. of Earth’s future in an entirely new Jeremy Leggett, Founder/Director There is indeed hope, because we light’. of Solarcentury, ‘scourge of the oil know very well that the For some of us, real conviction companies’and ‘first general of the fundamental problem is not the that we should be concerned about Anti-carbon Army’. The end of the fuels themselves, but the way climate change came in 1999, with conflict that Leggett himself named we use them. that new geological evidence. By in his book entitled The carbon war The customers of the oil then, I had retired from full-time (Penguin, 1999), involves financial companies are responsible for over work with BP, to pick up my rather than legal forces. On 80% of emissions of carbon dioxide research interests. Bearing the

3 January 2017, Leggett wrote: ‘… it (CO2) resulting from use of their 21 October copy of Nature, I went to is rare for a report to hold the products. The customers could ask my Cambridge colleague Nick potential to change the world. But control those emissions, but only by McCave, Professor of Geology: ‘Is one published on 14 December using the skills of those same this as important as Dickens says?’ 2017 did.’ companies. Using advanced The answer: ‘Yes’, it was.

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McCave was one of the denial of responsibility is now We do know already that distinguished authors of a happily becoming a thing of whatever path is followed statement on climate change the past. eventually, we will need to extract published by the Geological Society from Earth the many resources we of London in 2010. Those seeking Industry picks up reins need for nuclear, solar and wind guidance on the significance of past OGCI Climate Investments is an power. Geologists are preparing changes in Earth’s climate recorded example of constructive new to cope. In June 2018, the in rocks and ice should start with attitudes. A consortium of 10 major International Union of Geological this document. oil companies (BP, CNPC, Eni, Pemex, Sciences will tackle these issues at a In the 21st century it is no longer Reliance, Repsol, Saudi Aramco, conference in Vancouver, Canada; a defensible for petroleum geologists Shell, Statoil and Total), based in 10 preparatory meeting took place at to use, as an excuse for inaction, different countries, promised to the Geological Society in London in their reservations about the make $1bn of low-carbon November 2017. predictive models of the climate investment over the next 10 years. The Anti-carbon Army fought for scientists. Month-by-month since The resource industry at large has the right basic cause – we really do 1999, the geological evidence begun to take appropriate need a rapid reduction in emissions supporting the climate scientists responsibility for its own emissions, of CO2 from human activities. But, has grown more and more and for helping its customers to do the wartime tactic of general convincing. Geologists in the oil the same. assault on the resource industry has industry know from hard In September 2015, BHP had its day. experience it is unwise to argue anticipated the work of Bloomberg’s with a rock. TCFD and led the way in publishing Responsibility and investment an analysis of its portfolio against The largely independent Patchy oil industry response the background of a global move approaches of climate scientists BP and Shell expressed public towards a low-carbon economy. and Earth scientists have combined concern on climate change in 1997 Other resource companies are now this century to confirm the – a big help to Leggett and his beginning to develop portfolios that seriousness of human-induced nascent Anti-carbon Army at the are resilient in the face of the climate change. Building on the Kyoto climate summit later that targets set at the December 2015 strength of that rational cause for same year. Other majors took a Paris climate summit. concern, Bloomberg’s TCFD helps different attitude concerning Kyoto, Those targets are too demanding the Anti-carbon Army’s long leading to a North Atlantic divide in to allow in-fighting. Over the last 20 campaign. The crucial nature of the oil industry. The first evidence years, the oil industry has that support from the TCFD has that this divide was closing frequently defended its activities by been publicly recognised by came only years later, during a reminding us that gas is a lower- Leggett himself. BP–ExxonMobil debate on climate carbon fuel than coal. Significant The oil companies are beginning change at the Geological Society in reductions in emissions have indeed to take appropriate responsibility London in 2003. been achieved in recent years in on their own initiative, without The closing of the divide came individual nations, by substituting necessarily waiting for through the power of observational gas for coal. But the Paris targets encouragement from legislators and science. As the geological evidence will not be met unless the CO2 regulators. Against that background, for concern on climate change built generated in the use of gas is also the ‘New York City versus the oil up, some oil folk previously captured and stored. One part of the companies’ legal action in 2018 unconvinced by the predictions of fossil fuel industry cannot save begins to take on the appearance of the climate scientists began to itself simply by picking on another. a battle deep in the jungle, where reassess their position. Some of Nor will the Paris targets be met word has not yet got through that those working in the resource at all easily without using a wide hostilities are at an end. industry kept up with the range of technologies and resources. I suggest that the carbon war is scientific literature on climate We might in the end find that over. In the ensuing peace, we will *Dr Bryan Lovell is Senior change and accepted its message. carbon capture and storage (CCS) rely on the skills of industry to find Research Fellow in Earth Others did not. cannot be developed safely on an the resources we need – and to help Sciences at the University As a result, acceptance of appropriate scale and at a its customers use those resources of Cambridge. He was President of the Geological responsibility by the fossil-fuel manageable cost. If so, the game is wisely. Through our choice of Society from 2010–2012. His industry was patchy. Some indeed up for the fossil fuel investment, we will support the book ‘Challenged by carbon: companies took the lead. In other industry and hitting the Paris companies that offer us this help. The oil industry and climate change’ was published by quarters, reluctance to act went as targets will become much more Those not willing to do so can take Cambridge University Press far as denial of responsibility. That difficult. their chances. ● in 2010.

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