The global energy transition and renewables: A status report

Jeremy Leggett 8th Jun When the G7 agreed to push for decarbonisation in 2015 the Paris Agreement, few believed it would happen

….and up to 70% cuts by 2050, 34 years from now 12th Dec Unexpected result: a clear signal in the Paris 2015 Agreement - decarbonisation, as soon as possible 137ththJanJan Renewable electricity will be consistently in lower 20182016 range of undercutting fossil fuels by 2020: IRENA

Fossil fuel cost range 57thth AprJan Solar was the biggest single sector for new global 20182016 power capacity additions for the 2nd year in 2017

Large Nuclear $160 bn of 11 investment: biggest hydro sector in £280 bn 19 total renewables investment Solar Gas 98 38 38%

Coal Net new 35 Wind power after 52 retirements

GW Source: UNEP / BNEF 77thth Sep Jan All China’s new power demand in 2015 2016 met with wind and solar 97thth Feb Jan Almost 90% of new power in Europe 20172016 came from renewables in 2016

Lisbon: 4 straight days of renewable-only power in 2016 47thth AprJan Portugal's electricity consumption was 20182016 met 104% by renewables in March

Another first. Highest demand for 40 years met 97% wind & hydro, the rest solar etc. Average wholesale price €4 less than 2016 (39.75 €MWh). 3rd Jan 7th Jan Wind supplies record 43.6% of Denmark’s 20182016 electricity, with no grid problems

Target by 2020 is 50% wind, with a further 30% from solar, biomass and other renewables ….80% in all 137thth JanApr World’s most powerful wind turbine installed 20182016 off Scotland: 191 metres, 8.8 MW

Vestas for Vattenfall. Just one rotation of the blades can power the average UK home for a day. 277thth JanFeb 20182016 43 cities are now 100% renewable powered

The 43 are mostly in Latin America. Of 570 cities reporting to CDP, 101 are 70% or more renewable powered, compared to 42 in 2015. 47thth AprJan Google owner Alphabet, biggest corporate 20182016 renewables buyer, reaches 100% renewable power

$3 bn investment in wind and solar powers all data centres, where electricity use grows in double digits % each year. 107thth JanApr Apple reaches 100% renewable power for all its 20182016 operations in 43 countries

Solar roof on Apple HQ

Tim Cook, Apple CEO: “We’re going to keep pushing the boundaries of what is possible ….because we know the future depends on it.” 237thrdJanJan If the 122 RE100 companies were a country, it 20182016 would be the world’s 24th biggest user of electricity

Source: RE100 Progress and Insights report

Their use of renewable electricity in 2017 was up 49% on 2016. PPAs quadrupled. 25 companies had achieved 100% by end 2016. 17stthDecJan US -fired power plant to be shut down 20172016 and replaced by solar

Wisconsin utility WEC Energy’s 1,190MW Pleasant Prairie plant to be replaced by a 350 MW solar farm 237thrd JanApr US workers in solar and wind in 2016: 475,000 20172016 ….more than coal and gas

Coal

Gas

Solar Win d

0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 Source: US Department of Energy 137th JanNov 82% in 13 countries believe it is important to create 20172016 a world fully powered by

Largest ever such study: 26,000 people surveyed by Edelman for Orsted 30 Mar 7th Jan Google futurist Ray Kurzweil argues that analysts 2016 tend to struggle with exponential effects

Solar doubles every c.2 years 60 8 doublings 2000 – 2016… 50 …to 2% of global 40 (GW)

6 more doublings to 2028… 30

…to >100% of 2016 global energy20 c. 13,600 mtoeand >150,000 TWh 10 Ray Kurzweil Co-founder, Singularity University 57thth DecJan Lithium-ion battery prices down 80% since 2010 20172016 ….to an average $209 / kWh

$ kWh

1,000

800 600 400

200

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

$100 is widely viewed as the tipping point for EVs …and on current trends is reached by 2025 287th JanMar At least 7 new gigawatt-size battery factories will 20182016 come onstream in Europe by 2020

LG, Samsung, Tesla/Panasonic, Daimler, Northvolt, TerraE will be producing 80GWh a year within a decade: > 3x 2017 global production. 127thth JanFeb “A Powerful Mix of Solar and Batteries 20182016 Is Beating Natural Gas”

The Way Humans Get Electricity Is About To Change Forever e.g. California PURC requires PG&E to use batteries over gas Arizona PSC opts for a First Solar solar-battery project cheaper than gas. 17stthDecJan Tesla switches on world’s biggest 20172016 lithium-ion battery

c.129 MW power at the 350 MW Hornsdale wind farm in South Australia. 67thth Feb Jan “How Tesla's big battery is bringing Australia’s 20182016 gas cartel to heel”

RenewEconomy: gas companies manufacture shortages to hike prices for frequency control …and the big battery kicks in much cheaper. 27ndth OctJan Carmakers embrace an electric future 2016 at Paris motor show

Daimler Chairman Dieter Zetsche unveils the Mercedes-Benz EQ 19th Oct7th Jan China's Chongqing Changan to sell only EVs 20172016 from 2025 137thth JanSep Digitalisation “will increase the profitability of solar 20172016 power across every part of the value chain”

$800bn of additional value for renewables by 2030, according to Europe. 197ththJanJan Nissan launches a solar power management system 20182016 for homes in partnership with Solarcentury 167ththJanJan “In 50 years, when we ship off the last barrel 2016 of petrol, we will not be sad”

Crown Prince Shaikh Mohammad Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Abu Dhabi: “I promise you, my brothers and sisters, we will be celebrating.” 57thth DecJan All major EU power utilities commit to carbon- 20172016 neutral power ‘well before’ 2050

Eurelectric secretary-general Kristian Ruby 27ndthApril Jan Despite huge cuts, most oil majors couldn’t even 20172016 cover their costs at $50 oil in 2016

“If $100 was too high for the world, $50 is too low for the industry. It will have to be somewhere in between.” John Hess CEO, Hess Corporation 277thth JanDec The shale business hasn’t funded itself 20172016 at any oil price

33 shale-weighted E&P companies in the 4 main shale oil plays:

Free cash flow

Source: Bloomberg Even at $100 oil prices in 2012 and 2013, the 33 companies spent more money producing shale energy than they made from operations. 17stthJune Jan “The Global Oil & Gas Industry Is Cannibalizing Michael Bloomberg: US cities, states and 20172016 Itself To Stay Alive”businesses will still meet Paris targets Amount of bonds below investment grade that the US energy companies need to pay back each year

75% of operating The Debt Wall cash flow just to pay interest 147th JanMar Statoil plans to change its name to Equinor, 20182016 reflecting shift in strategy toward renewable energy

CEO Eldar Sætre: “For us, this is a historic day”. ….But the company still only expects to be investing 15-20% of capex in renewables by 2030. One (former) oil and gas company has already shown that total transition is possible…. 77ththNovJan Dong Energy profit soars on offshore wind and sale 2016 of gas grid, with all oil and gas to be divested next 27ndth OctJan DONG changes its name to reflect 20172016 near-100% transition to renewables

on track for a 95% renewable footprint by 2023

Named after the Danish electricity pioneer, to reflect its “profound strategic transformation from black to green energy.” “It can be done!” It can done profitably It can done sustainably with technologies that are cooler, cleaner, smarter, less costly, more communal, less resource stressed, more safe, and more secure …a saga spanning 2013-2017

…with multiple storylines

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