Drumbeat: April 27, 2008
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Coal and Oil: the Dark Monarchs of Global Energy – Understanding Supply and Extraction Patterns and Their Importance for Futur
nam et ipsa scientia potestas est List of Papers This thesis is based on the following papers, which are referred to in the text by their Roman numerals. I Höök, M., Aleklett, K. (2008) A decline rate study of Norwe- gian oil production. Energy Policy, 36(11):4262–4271 II Höök, M., Söderbergh, B., Jakobsson, K., Aleklett, K. (2009) The evolution of giant oil field production behaviour. Natural Resources Research, 18(1):39–56 III Höök, M., Hirsch, R., Aleklett, K. (2009) Giant oil field decline rates and their influence on world oil production. Energy Pol- icy, 37(6):2262–2272 IV Jakobsson, K., Söderbergh, B., Höök, M., Aleklett, K. (2009) How reasonable are oil production scenarios from public agen- cies? Energy Policy, 37(11):4809–4818 V Höök M, Söderbergh, B., Aleklett, K. (2009) Future Danish oil and gas export. Energy, 34(11):1826–1834 VI Aleklett K., Höök, M., Jakobsson, K., Lardelli, M., Snowden, S., Söderbergh, B. (2010) The Peak of the Oil Age - analyzing the world oil production Reference Scenario in World Energy Outlook 2008. Energy Policy, 38(3):1398–1414 VII Höök M, Tang, X., Pang, X., Aleklett K. (2010) Development journey and outlook for the Chinese giant oilfields. Petroleum Development and Exploration, 37(2):237–249 VIII Höök, M., Aleklett, K. (2009) Historical trends in American coal production and a possible future outlook. International Journal of Coal Geology, 78(3):201–216 IX Höök, M., Aleklett, K. (2010) Trends in U.S. recoverable coal supply estimates and future production outlooks. Natural Re- sources Research, 19(3):189–208 X Höök, M., Zittel, W., Schindler, J., Aleklett, K. -
ROMAHDUS Vipu
ROMAHDUS ViPu Lokakuu 2014 1 Sisällys Lukijalle……………………………………………………… 2 1 Mikä romahdus?…………………………………………… 2 2 Romahduksen lajeista……………………………………… 6 3 Romahduksen vaiheista…………………………………… 15 4 Teoreetikkoja ja näkemyksiä……………………………… 17 5 Romahdus—maailmanloppu, apokalypsi, kriisi, utopia… 25 6 Romahdus ja selviytyminen………………………………. 29 7 Pitääkö romahdusta jouduttaa?…………………………… 44 8 Romahdus, tieto ja hallinta………………………………… 49 9 Romahdus ja politiikka…………………………………….. 53 2 Lukijalle Tämä teksti on osa pohdiskelua, jonka tarkoituksena on luoda pohjaa Vihreän Puolueen poliittiselle toiminnalle. Tekstin aiheena on jo monin paikoin ja tavoin alkanut teollisten sivilisaatioiden ja modernismin kehityskertomuksen romahdus. Tekstin ensimmäiset 8 lukua käsittelevät erilaisia teorioita, käsityksiä ja vapaampaankin ajatuksenlentoon nojaavia näkökulmia romahdukseen. Ne eivät siis missään nimessä edusta ViPun poliittisia käsityksiä tai tavotteita, vaan pohjustavat alustavia poliittisia johtopäätöksiä, jotka esitetään luvussa 9. Toisin sanoen luvut 1-8 pyörittelevät aihetta suuntaan ja toiseen ja luku 9 esittää välitilinpäätöksen, jonka on edelleen tarkoitus tarkentua ja elää tilanteen mukaan. Tätä romahdus-osiota on myös tarkoitus lukea muiden ViPun teoreettisten tekstien kanssa, niiden ristivalotuksessa. 1 Mikä romahdus? Motto: "Yhden maailman loppu on toisen maailman alku, yhden maailmanloppu on toisen maailmanalku." Moton sanaleikin tarkoitus on huomauttaa, että vaikka yhteiskunnan romahdus onkin yksilön ja ryhmän näkökulmasta vääjäämätön tapahtuma, johon -
The Way I Saw Things
The Oil Drum | The Way I Saw Things http://www.theoildrum.com/node/10198 The Way I Saw Things Posted by Robert Rapier on August 23, 2013 - 4:56pm I often find myself wondering where my life would be today had I not stumbled across The Oil Drum in 2005. I don’t know that I would still be writing today were it not for my early experiences with TOD readers. As TOD winds down, I thought I’d share my story, which I have not told before. In 2005 I was a chemical engineer at the ConocoPhillips Refinery in Billings, Montana. I worked in the group that among other things did refinery economics. We optimized the refinery for which crude slates to run and how the refinery should be run, depending on the crude slate as well as whether margins were higher for diesel or for gasoline. We could shift production about 5% one way or the other. We often joked about the fact that my boss was the Director of Optimization, Process, and Economics (the “DOPE”). At that time the Montana government was in the midst of trying to implement an ethanol mandate for the state, and the refinery manager knew I had some background with ethanol from my graduate school days at Texas A&M University. So whereas other refineries in the state were sending their plant managers to testify, I was asked to go to the Montana State Legislature to provide testimony on this bill. As I was preparing for my testimony, I wanted to be sure I also emphasized the dangers of being overly dependent on a depleting resource like petroleum. -
Peak Oil, Peak Energy Mother Nature Bats Last
Peak Oil, Peak Energy Mother Nature Bats Last Martin Sereno 1 Feb 2011 (orig. talk: Nov 2004) Oil is the Lifeblood of Industrial Civilization • 80 million barrels/day, 1000 barrels/sec, 1 cubic mile/year • highly energy-dense • easy to transport, store • moves goods and people • allows us to fly (there will never be a battery-operated jet plane) • digs huge holes and puts up huge buildings • ballooned our food supply (fertilize, cultivate, irrigate, transport) • our 'stuff' is made from it (iPods to the roads themselves) • we're not "addicted to oil" -- that's like saying a person has an "addiction to blood" Where Oil Comes From • raw organic material for oil (e.g., from plankton) is present in low concentrations in ‘all’ sedimentary rocks, but esp. from two warm periods 90 million and 140 million years ago • temperature rises with depth (radioactivity, Kelvin’s mistake) • oil is generated in rocks heated to 60-120 deg Celsius • rocks at this temp. occur at different depths in different places (N.B.: water depth doesn't count) • oil is ‘cracked’ to natural gas at higher temps (deeper) • abiotic oil from “crystalline basement” is negligible, if it exists • exhausted oil fields do not refill Recoverable Oil • oil must collect in a “trap” to be practically recoverable • a trap is a permeable layer capped by an impermeable one • obvious traps: anticlines, domes (“oil in those hills”) • less obvious traps found by seismic imaging: turned up edges of salt domes, near buried meteorite crater (Mexico) • harder-to-get-at traps: shallow continental shelf (GOM) • even-harder-to-get-at traps: edge continental slope (Macondo, resevoir pressure: 12,000 pounds [6 tons] per sq inch) • essentially no oil in basaltic ocean floor or granitic basement (Used to be!) Second Largest Oilfield Cantarell used to supply 2% of world oil (water) Guzman, A.E. -
Transition Northfield
We live in interesting times. Useful Resources Peak Oil: How much oil is left? Ex- Books perts say that half of our nonrenew- The Transition Handbook by Rob Hop- able resource across the globe is gone. kins That which is left will be difficult to The Party’s Over by Richard Heinberg harvest and refine, causing costs to Heat by George Monbiot inevitably sky-rocket. What are our The Last Oil Shock by David Strahan choices for renewable energy? How Permaculture by David Holmgren TRANSITION will we choose to use the oil that is left? Movies The Power of Community Northfield Global climate change: Might we choose The End of Suburbia to be proactive instead of reactive What a Way To Go to the changing climate? By chang- An Inconvenient Truth ing our oil-based habits we can live In Transition a better balanced and healthier life, Bringing the heads, hearts, and hands of our community together in the transition that gives back to our earth instead of Websites depleting it of its resources, causing to life beyond oil. www.transitionus.org damage to our earth and ourselves. www.transitiontowns.org www.energybulletin.net Global economic uncertainty: Can call us www.realclimate.org to a place of ingenuity and creativity www.transitionculture.org to challenge our current definition of growth. Recreating a place of self- “It is necessary to urgently design and im- sufficiency and sustainability involves plement low-carbon, resilient ways of living developing local resilience and build- — climate changes makes this imperative, ing a communitywide Energy De- peak oil makes it inevitable, and transition scent Action Plan. -
Michael: Welcome to This Episode of the Future Is Calling Us to Greatness
Michael: Welcome to this episode of The Future is Calling Us to Greatness. Today I’ll be talking with John Michael Greer, who is a peak oil writer, a blogger, actually, to be quite honest, of everyone that I’m interviewing in this series, I’ve not read anyone more deeply and more enthusiastically than John Michael. In face, my first introduction to him was just maybe eight months ago. I read The Ecotechnic Future. Richard Heinberg was the one that introduced me to that book. Then I listened to it. Fortunately it was available on audio. Then I’ve read several others of his books that I’ll talk about here. But John Michael, welcome to this podcast series, this interview series, on The Future is Calling Us to Greatness. John: Thank you. It’s a pleasure to be on. Michael: So John Michael, could you begin just by sharing with our viewers and listeners a little bit about your own background, your accomplishments, and especially what you’re particularly passionate about or interested in at this time. John: Well, I reached adulthood at the end of the 1970’s, the early 1980’s, at the last time that American society was showing any signs of paying attention to the future or any future outside of Ronald Reagan’s distorted imaginations. I was at that time very heavily involved in what we used to call the appropriate tech movement. There’s a phrase that doesn’t get a lot of reference these days, but doing things like solar energy and wind power, but not taking over vast amounts of Nevada. -
Dowd 2016 Oneing (Vol 4, No 2) Essay.Pages
Evidential Medicine for Our Collective Soul What’s Inevitable? What’s Redemptive? By Michael Dowd Religions are evolving. Nowhere is this more evident than in how spiritual leaders across the spectrum are expanding their views of revelation to include all forms of evidence. We are witnessing the birth of what I have been calling the Evidential Reformation,1 a time when all forms of evidence (scientific, historic, cross-cultural, experiential) are valued religiously. Crucially, ecology—the interdisciplinary study of God’s nature—becomes integral to theology. Pope Francis, Patriarch Bartholomew, the Dalai Lama, and the signers of the Islamic Declaration on Global Climate Change are spearheading this evidence-honoring greening of religion. The movement has been passionate and inspired for decades. But the noble sentiments that spawned care for Creation are no match for the crises now spinning out of control. It is time for a prophetic turbo-charging of our religious traditions. Foremost is the need to expand beyond the self-focus of individual salvation or enlightenment to also include vital community concerns—notably, survival. The community now, of course, is the entire human family and the more-than-human Earth community.2 A renewed call to action cannot be expected to offer pat solutions. Sadly, what were problems in the recent past have now exploded into predicaments. A predicament (by definition) is a kind of problem for which there are no solutions. It can neither be solved nor overcome; yet it is too impactful to ignore. A predicament must be dealt with conscientiously and continuously. Our responses can offer only more or less helpful interventions. -
Crude Oil Reserves 1986
o un E I Introduction FACTS AND FIGURES is produced annually at the OPEC Secretariat in Vienna, to assist people requiring a means of rapidly assimilating important facts about the energy industry, without themselves having to delve into time- consuming research from an array of sources. Since it is the belief of OPEC Member Countries that energy cannot be viewed in isolation from other global economic considerations, parts of this booklet broach such related issues as comparisons between the economic fortunes of industrialized and developing nations. A wide range of authoritative sources have been con- sulted in producing this booklet. Where disparities have occurred among sources, great pains have been taken at the Secretariat to distill those figures which most faithfully reflect observed market trends. The graphs are presented in six sections. The first three examine energy issues on a global scale, the next two con- centrate on OPEC, while the final one makes broad econ- omic comparisons between different world groupings. It is hoped that this latest issue of FACTS AND FIGURES, which covers the period up to the end of 1986, will prove of interest and value to its readers. November 1987 Published by: The Secretariat, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Obere Donaustrasse 93, A-1020 Vienna, Austria 1987 Printed in Austria by H Carl UeberreuterGes. m. b. H-, Vienna OPEC flows of crude and refined oil — 1986 I I OPEC Far East 4 Indonesia ^| OPEC Latin America - 2 Ecuador; 13 Venezuela • OPEC Africa 1 Algeria; 3 Gabon; 9 -
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)
Exhibit 21 Initiative arbon Tracker Carbon supply cost curves: Evaluating financial risk to gas capital expenditures About Carbon Tracker Acknowledgements Disclaimer The Carbon Tracker Initiative (CTI) is a financial Authored by James Leaton, Andrew Grant, Matt Carbon Tracker is a non-profit company set-up not for profit financial think-tank. Its goal is to Gray, Luke Sussams, with communications advice to produce new thinking on climate risk. The align the capital markets with the risks of climate from Stefano Ambrogi and Margherita Gagliardi organisation is funded by a range of European and change. Since its inception in 2009 Carbon Tracker at Carbon Tracker. This paper is a summary which American foundations. Carbon Tracker is not an has played a pioneering role in popularising the draws on research conducted in partnership with investment adviser, and makes no representation concepts of the carbon bubble, unburnable carbon Energy Transition Advisors, ETA, led by Mark Fulton, regarding the advisability of investing in any and stranded assets. These concepts have entered with Paul Spedding. particular company or investment fund or other the financial lexicon and are being taken increasingly vehicle. A decision to invest in any such investment The underlying analysis in this report prepared seriously by a range of financial institutions including fund or other entity should not be made in by Carbon Tracker and ETA is based on supply investment banks, ratings agencies, pension funds reliance on any of the statements set forth in this cost data licensed from Wood Mackenzie Limited. and asset managers. publication. While the organisations have obtained Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial information believed to be reliable, they shall not intelligence for the energy, metals and mining Contact be liable for any claims or losses of any nature industries. -
The Politics of Oil
SYLLABUS PS 399 (CRN 58533): The Politics of Oil Oregon State University, School of Public Policy Spring 2012 (4 credits) Tue & Thur 4-5:50pm, Gilkey 113 Instructor: Tamas Golya Office: Gilkey 300C Office Hours: Tue & Thur 10-11am Phone (during office hours): 541-737-1352 Email: [email protected] “The American Way of Life is not negotiable.” Dick Cheney, Former US Vice President “The species Homo sapiens is not going to become extinct. But the subspecies Petroleum Man most certainly is.” Colin Campbell, Founder of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil Course Description The world’s economic and political developments of the last century played out against the backdrop of a steadily rising supply of energy, especially oil. There are signs that this period of “easy energy” is coming to an end, turning energy into a major economic and political issue in its own right. Peak Oil is a term used by geologists to describe the point in time at which the world’s annual conventional oil production reaches a maximum after which it inevitably declines. Recent evidence suggests that we may pass this peak in this decade. In a broader sense, Peak Oil also stands for the economic, political, and societal effects of a dramatically changing energy supply. These effects will create unprecedented problems, risks and opportunities for policy makers as well as for consumers and businesses. In part due to higher oil prices, the US has begun to catch up to this issue, as evidenced by the founding of a Peak Oil Caucus in the House of Representatives in 2005 and by the demand of former President Bush to find ways to cure “America’s addiction to oil”. -
2. PEAK OIL 10 2.1 the Origin of Oil 11 2.2 History of Oil 12 3
Bachelor's thesis (Turku University of Applied Sciences) Degree Programme in International Business International Business Management 2012 Aleksi Rantanen, Lauri Stevens PEAK OIL – A study of the phenomenon and possible effects and alternatives in Finland BACHELOR´S THESIS | ABSTRACT TURKU UNIVERSITY OF APPLIED SCIENCES International Business | Management 2012 | 66 + 5 Emmanuel Querrec Aleksi Rantanen and Lauri Stevens PEAK OIL – A STUDY OF THE PHENOMENON AND POSSIBLE EFFECTS AND ALTERNATIVES IN FINLAND This thesis studies a phenomenon called oil peak; what does it mean, what are the possible effects and consequenses in Finland. The theoretical framework covers facts about oil and energy, different theories from microeconomics all the way to different oil theories. It provides comprehensive information on the subject. The empirical research includes two separate expert interviews with the aim of understanding peak oil and its effects in Finland from two different perspectives. The other expert coming from from private sector and the other expert from public sector. The research was conducted by using qualitative method and the questions were made mainly based on the theoretical framefork. Main findings of this study were that peak oil is recognized but experts still argue what does it mean practically; when is it going to happen or has it already happened. The era of cheap oil is coming to an end and it is time for Finland to investigate all possible solutions which could decrease our level of oil dependency. KEYWORDS: Peak oil, oil dependency, oil crunch, eroei, energy, alternative energy, energy in Finland, oil theory, energy production, energy consumption OPINNÄYTETYÖ (AMK) | TIIVISTELMÄ TURUN AMMATTIKORKEAKOULU International Business | Management 2012 | 66 + 5 Emmanuel Querrec Aleksi Rantanen and Lauri Stevens ÖLJYHUIPPU – TUTKIMUS ILMIÖSTÄ JA SEN MAHDOLLISISTA VAIKUTUKSISTA JA VAIHTOEHDOISTA SUOMESSA Tämä opinnäytetyö tutkii öljyhuippua ilmiönä; mitä se tarkoittaa ja mitkä ovat sen mahdolliset vaikutukset ja seuraukset Suomessa. -
Global Solar Leaders and UNEP Outline Central Role for Solar in Climate Solution at United Nations Climate Change Conference in Poland
December 8, 2008 Global Solar Leaders and UNEP Outline Central Role for Solar in Climate Solution at United Nations Climate Change Conference in Poland POZNAN, Poland, Dec 08, 2008 /PRNewswire-Asia via COMTEX News Network/ -- Representatives from three leading international solar companies and the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) -- Dr. Zhengrong Shi, Suntech's Chairman and CEO, Jeremy Leggett, Executive Chairman of Solarcentury, Mike Ahearn, Chairman and CEO of First Solar, and Achim Steiner, UNEP Executive Director -- gathered at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Poznan, Poland to propose the rapid implementation and expansion of policies designed to support the growth of the solar industry and the global adoption of solar technology as a major contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction in support of global climate goals. The four representatives stated that solar technology is already a cost-effective alternative for generating electricity and countries world-wide should immediately revise energy development plans to include a higher proportion of this clean and sustainable energy source: "Solar technology is no longer a niche energy solution, but is already reaching the scale and cost points to fundamentally change the way we generate electricity. As a result of substantial investments over the past 5 years, the solar industry has dramatically improved solar technologies and established roadmaps for further cost reductions. In fact, electricity generated from solar installations is already reaching parity with peak energy and retail energy prices in many regions." "Now is the time for world leaders, businesses and communities to build the platform for solar to be adopted on a much greater scale.