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Home , Hirsch report, Peak oil, The End of Suburbia

SYLLABUS PS 399 (CRN 58533): The Politics of Oil

Oregon State University, School of Public Policy Spring 2012 (4 credits) Tue & Thur 4-5:50pm, Gilkey 113

Instructor: Tamas Golya Office: Gilkey 300C Office Hours: Tue & Thur 10-11am Phone (during office hours): 541-737-1352 Email: [email protected]

“The American Way of is not negotiable.” Dick Cheney, Former US Vice President

“The species Homo sapiens is not going to become extinct. But the subspecies Man most certainly is.” Colin Campbell, Founder of the Association for the Study of

Course Description

The world’s economic and political developments of the last century played out against the backdrop of a steadily rising supply of , especially oil. There are signs that this period of “easy energy” is coming to an end, turning energy into a major economic and political issue in its own right. Peak Oil is a term used by geologists to describe the point in time at which the world’s annual conventional oil production reaches a maximum after which it inevitably declines. Recent evidence suggests that we may pass this peak in this decade. In a broader sense, Peak Oil also stands for the economic, political, and societal effects of a dramatically changing . These effects will create unprecedented problems, risks and opportunities for policy makers as well as for consumers and businesses. In part due to higher oil prices, the US has begun to catch up to this issue, as evidenced by the founding of a Peak Oil Caucus in the House of Representatives in 2005 and by the demand of former President Bush to find ways to cure “America’s addiction to oil”. This class explores the events that may be ahead of us, and what they mean. We will evaluate different policy options, including support for alternative energy sources, efficiency and conservation measures. Which ones are short-term fixes, what are long-term solutions? Are wars around the corner? Have they already begun? We’ll find out about the vital role petroleum has played in the last 100 years in foreign policy. We will understand the role of oil prices for and and what regions and industries will fare better than others in an environment of high energy prices, which relates to issues such as where you may want to live, or what you may want to invest in. This class also seeks to put the coming into a larger context of environmental changes, questions of and the workings of our . Are globalization, SUVs or suburbia only temporary phenomena? We will see that even though Peak Oil may be inevitable, many hypothesized effects are highly contingent. In the end, the way political and economic systems will work, and what every single citizen decides to do regarding energy use, will make a difference. For this and other reasons, this class will be just as valuable to students of social sciences, geography, or business, as indeed to anyone interested in his or her future.

1 Readings

Required books available at the OSU Bookstore , The Party's Over: Oil, War, and the Fate of Industrial , 2 nd edition 2005 (New ) Dilip Hiro, Blood of the Earth: The Battle for the World’s Vanishing Oil , 2006 (Nation Books) Richard Heinberg and Daniel Lerch (ed.), The Post Carbon Reader: Managing the 21 st Century’s Sustainability Crises , 2010 (Watershed Media) Recommended Daniel Lerch, Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty , 2008 (Post Carbon Press) Robert L. Hirsch, Roger Bezdek, Robert Wendling: Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation & Risk Management (“”), SAIC / US Department of Energy, 2005, available online: http://www.pppl.gov/publications/pics/Oil_Peaking_1205.pdf City of Portland Peak Oil Task Force: Descending the Oil Peak: Navigating the Transition from Oil and (“Portland Peak Oil Report”), 2007, available online: http://www.portlandonline.com/osd/index.cfm?c=42894&a=145732 Various short readings and sound files will be available online or posted on Blackboard Recommended Websites The internet is particularly useful for this topic, in part because it is more up-to-date than any book can be, and because the mainstream (in the media as well as in academia) is only slowly catching up to issues related to Peak Oil. The following websites are great for a first look at the subject matter (several provide excellent introductions or primers). But they will also provide quality material for take-home exercises and the optional paper, as well as keeping the lecture and in-class discussion up-to-date.

Some Interesting Websites on Energy, Oil (especially Peak Oil and its Effects) and Related Issues: http://www.energybulletin.net/ http://www.eia.gov/ http://www.iea.org/ http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse http://www.drydipstick.com/ http://peakoil.net/ http://www.aspo-usa.com/ http://www.oilcrisis.com/ http://www.postcarbon.org/ http://dieoff.org/ http://peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/

The Best Discussion Forum on Peak Oil. Thought-Provoking and Diverse: http://www.theoildrum.com/

Websites Accompanying the Required Readings and Authors Used in Class: http://www.endofsuburbia.com/ http://www.richardheinberg.com/ http://www.postcarboncities.net/ http://www.postcarbon.org/reader

2 Assignments and Grading

In-Class Midterm (25%) The 60-minute midterm exam will take place on Tuesday of Week 6 (5/8). It will be roughly equally divided into a multiple choice part and an essay part that tests your understanding of the material covered in the required readings AND in the lecture. No open books or notes are allowed. Tips regarding the multiple choice part: There’s always only ONE correct answer. If you have no clue, take a guess. Read carefully! Tips regarding the essay part: Read extra carefully! Try to take every word of the question into account while writing your answer. Construct a logically coherent argument (e.g. define and describe a theoretical concept before you apply it to a case). Discuss counterarguments too. Provide examples. You are not graded on your opinions (even if asked to provide them), but on how well you use facts, theories and authors discussed in class to build your argument and form your conclusions.

In-Class Final (35%) Similar in structure to the midterm, the final exam is longer (110 minutes). In both exams, you will be given a choice of essay topics. The final is cumulative (covering the entire term). The final exam will take place on Thursday, 6/14 , at 2pm.

Exercises (40%) There will be six short exercises out of which your top four scores will count. At least three of these will be home work assignments. The in-class exercises will not be announced in advance. These exercises are meant to stimulate your learning beyond the memorization of the contents of the textbook, with the additional benefit of a relatively low pressure to score well (because the two lowest scores will be dropped).

Grading Even though more than 100 points are possible (due to bonus points), your minimum grade will be determined by treating the total number of points in this class as percentage points in the following way: A 93.0 or more points C 73.0-76.5 points A- 90.0-92.5 points C- 70.0-72.5 points B+ 87.0-89.5 points D+ 67.0-69.5 points B 83.0-86.5 points D 63.0-66.5 points B- 80.0-82.5 points D- 60.0-62.5 points C+ 77.0-79.5 points F 59.5 or fewer points If your final Blackboard score is close to a cutoff point between grades, you will be rewarded for regular contributions to class discussions with the higher grade.

Class Policies

Late Work / Make-Ups There is no make-up and no graded late work for the exercises. In fact, the additional exercise scores that will get dropped can be seen as make-up opportunities. In medical or other emergency situations or time conflicts, you may petition the instructor to change the midterm or final exam time or date. However, you need to contact me about such issues as soon as you become aware of them and NOT after the exam. Student-athletes should contact me as early as possible (i.e., at the beginning of the

3 term) regarding excused days of absence and with relevant contact information for proctoring exams on the road.

Incompletes Incompletes will only be granted in exceptional emergency situations. In all other cases the grade will be based upon the work completed by the end of the class, which may result in a failing grade. The grade “I” for Incomplete will be assigned only after the instructor and the student have completed and signed a Contract for Grade of Incomplete, which will specify deadlines for the student to finish the missing assignments.

Academic Integrity and Civility The Oregon State University Student Conduct Code will be enforced. You can read the code at: http://oregonstate.edu/studentconduct/code/index.php Behaviors disruptive to the learning environment will not be tolerated and will be referred to the Office of Student Conduct for disciplinary action. The Conduct Code is also concerned with academic dishonesty, which it defines as an act of deception such as: cheating (use or attempted use of unauthorized materials, information or study aids); fabrication (falsification or invention of any information); assisting (helping another commit an act of academic dishonesty); tampering (altering or interfering with evaluation instruments and documents); and plagiarism (representing the words or ideas of another person as one's own). If you are caught doing any of this you risk failing the class and being reported to university authorities. Whenever you’re in doubt about what constitutes cheating, contact me before problems arise.

Disabilities Students with documented disabilities will be accommodated. Please contact Disability Access Services, A200 Kerr Administration Building (737-4098 or http://ds.oregonstate.edu/home/ ) and they will advise me as to how to meet your needs.

The #1 Class Policy Have fun – with the assignments, the readings, the web surfing, and, hopefully, in class! You are encouraged to think outside the box. I will leave room for plenty of discussion time. Take advantage of that…

Course Outline (A detailed reading schedule on Blackboard will show what to read when)

4/3 Introduction; Petroleum Man 4/5 DVD “” 4/10-4/12 Hubbert’s Peak; Peak Oil Critics; EROEI 4/17-4/24 Alternative Energy Sources 4/26 Conservation and Mitigation 5/1-5/3 Oil and the 5/8 MIDTERM EXAM ; Open Topic 5/10-5/15 Oil and 5/17 Guest Lecture: Daniel Lerch on Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy Uncertainty 5/22-5/24 The End of Growth? vs. Ecology 5/29-6/7 Responses to Energy Uncertainty 6/14 FINAL EXAM at 2pm

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