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ROMAHDUS Vipu
ROMAHDUS ViPu Lokakuu 2014 1 Sisällys Lukijalle……………………………………………………… 2 1 Mikä romahdus?…………………………………………… 2 2 Romahduksen lajeista……………………………………… 6 3 Romahduksen vaiheista…………………………………… 15 4 Teoreetikkoja ja näkemyksiä……………………………… 17 5 Romahdus—maailmanloppu, apokalypsi, kriisi, utopia… 25 6 Romahdus ja selviytyminen………………………………. 29 7 Pitääkö romahdusta jouduttaa?…………………………… 44 8 Romahdus, tieto ja hallinta………………………………… 49 9 Romahdus ja politiikka…………………………………….. 53 2 Lukijalle Tämä teksti on osa pohdiskelua, jonka tarkoituksena on luoda pohjaa Vihreän Puolueen poliittiselle toiminnalle. Tekstin aiheena on jo monin paikoin ja tavoin alkanut teollisten sivilisaatioiden ja modernismin kehityskertomuksen romahdus. Tekstin ensimmäiset 8 lukua käsittelevät erilaisia teorioita, käsityksiä ja vapaampaankin ajatuksenlentoon nojaavia näkökulmia romahdukseen. Ne eivät siis missään nimessä edusta ViPun poliittisia käsityksiä tai tavotteita, vaan pohjustavat alustavia poliittisia johtopäätöksiä, jotka esitetään luvussa 9. Toisin sanoen luvut 1-8 pyörittelevät aihetta suuntaan ja toiseen ja luku 9 esittää välitilinpäätöksen, jonka on edelleen tarkoitus tarkentua ja elää tilanteen mukaan. Tätä romahdus-osiota on myös tarkoitus lukea muiden ViPun teoreettisten tekstien kanssa, niiden ristivalotuksessa. 1 Mikä romahdus? Motto: "Yhden maailman loppu on toisen maailman alku, yhden maailmanloppu on toisen maailmanalku." Moton sanaleikin tarkoitus on huomauttaa, että vaikka yhteiskunnan romahdus onkin yksilön ja ryhmän näkökulmasta vääjäämätön tapahtuma, johon -
Transition Northfield
We live in interesting times. Useful Resources Peak Oil: How much oil is left? Ex- Books perts say that half of our nonrenew- The Transition Handbook by Rob Hop- able resource across the globe is gone. kins That which is left will be difficult to The Party’s Over by Richard Heinberg harvest and refine, causing costs to Heat by George Monbiot inevitably sky-rocket. What are our The Last Oil Shock by David Strahan choices for renewable energy? How Permaculture by David Holmgren TRANSITION will we choose to use the oil that is left? Movies The Power of Community Northfield Global climate change: Might we choose The End of Suburbia to be proactive instead of reactive What a Way To Go to the changing climate? By chang- An Inconvenient Truth ing our oil-based habits we can live In Transition a better balanced and healthier life, Bringing the heads, hearts, and hands of our community together in the transition that gives back to our earth instead of Websites depleting it of its resources, causing to life beyond oil. www.transitionus.org damage to our earth and ourselves. www.transitiontowns.org www.energybulletin.net Global economic uncertainty: Can call us www.realclimate.org to a place of ingenuity and creativity www.transitionculture.org to challenge our current definition of growth. Recreating a place of self- “It is necessary to urgently design and im- sufficiency and sustainability involves plement low-carbon, resilient ways of living developing local resilience and build- — climate changes makes this imperative, ing a communitywide Energy De- peak oil makes it inevitable, and transition scent Action Plan. -
Michael: Welcome to This Episode of the Future Is Calling Us to Greatness
Michael: Welcome to this episode of The Future is Calling Us to Greatness. Today I’ll be talking with John Michael Greer, who is a peak oil writer, a blogger, actually, to be quite honest, of everyone that I’m interviewing in this series, I’ve not read anyone more deeply and more enthusiastically than John Michael. In face, my first introduction to him was just maybe eight months ago. I read The Ecotechnic Future. Richard Heinberg was the one that introduced me to that book. Then I listened to it. Fortunately it was available on audio. Then I’ve read several others of his books that I’ll talk about here. But John Michael, welcome to this podcast series, this interview series, on The Future is Calling Us to Greatness. John: Thank you. It’s a pleasure to be on. Michael: So John Michael, could you begin just by sharing with our viewers and listeners a little bit about your own background, your accomplishments, and especially what you’re particularly passionate about or interested in at this time. John: Well, I reached adulthood at the end of the 1970’s, the early 1980’s, at the last time that American society was showing any signs of paying attention to the future or any future outside of Ronald Reagan’s distorted imaginations. I was at that time very heavily involved in what we used to call the appropriate tech movement. There’s a phrase that doesn’t get a lot of reference these days, but doing things like solar energy and wind power, but not taking over vast amounts of Nevada. -
Dowd 2016 Oneing (Vol 4, No 2) Essay.Pages
Evidential Medicine for Our Collective Soul What’s Inevitable? What’s Redemptive? By Michael Dowd Religions are evolving. Nowhere is this more evident than in how spiritual leaders across the spectrum are expanding their views of revelation to include all forms of evidence. We are witnessing the birth of what I have been calling the Evidential Reformation,1 a time when all forms of evidence (scientific, historic, cross-cultural, experiential) are valued religiously. Crucially, ecology—the interdisciplinary study of God’s nature—becomes integral to theology. Pope Francis, Patriarch Bartholomew, the Dalai Lama, and the signers of the Islamic Declaration on Global Climate Change are spearheading this evidence-honoring greening of religion. The movement has been passionate and inspired for decades. But the noble sentiments that spawned care for Creation are no match for the crises now spinning out of control. It is time for a prophetic turbo-charging of our religious traditions. Foremost is the need to expand beyond the self-focus of individual salvation or enlightenment to also include vital community concerns—notably, survival. The community now, of course, is the entire human family and the more-than-human Earth community.2 A renewed call to action cannot be expected to offer pat solutions. Sadly, what were problems in the recent past have now exploded into predicaments. A predicament (by definition) is a kind of problem for which there are no solutions. It can neither be solved nor overcome; yet it is too impactful to ignore. A predicament must be dealt with conscientiously and continuously. Our responses can offer only more or less helpful interventions. -
Part I: Introduction
Part I: Introduction “Perhaps the sentiments contained in the following pages are not yet sufficiently fashionable to procure them general favor; a long habit of not thinking a thing wrong gives it a superficial appearance of being right, and raises at first a formidable outcry in defense of custom. But the tumult soon subsides. Time makes more converts than reason.” -Thomas Paine, Common Sense (1776) “For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst and provide for it.” -Patrick Henry (1776) “I am aware that many object to the severity of my language; but is there not cause for severity? I will be as harsh as truth. On this subject I do not wish to think, or speak, or write, with moderation. No! No! Tell a man whose house is on fire to give a moderate alarm; tell him to moderately rescue his wife from the hands of the ravisher; tell the mother to gradually extricate her babe from the fire into which it has fallen -- but urge me not to use moderation in a cause like the present. The apathy of the people is enough to make every statue leap from its pedestal, and to hasten the resurrection of the dead.” -William Lloyd Garrison, The Liberator (1831) “Gas is running low . .” -Amelia Earhart (July 2, 1937) 1 2 Dear Reader, Civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon. This is not the wacky proclamation of a doomsday cult, apocalypse bible prophecy sect, or conspiracy theory society. -
Museletter 327 / May 2020
MuseLetter 327 / May 2020 richardheinberg.com MuseLetter #327 / May 2020 by Richard Heinberg Dear Readers, This month I offer two short pieces: my review of Planet of the Humans, a new film produced by Michael Moore; and "Nobody Takes Renewable Energy Transition Seriously," in which I offer suggestions for what we should do if we really want to get society off of fossil fuels and avert catastrophic climate change. Stay safe and healthy, Richard Review: Planet of the Humans A few days ago, Emily Atkin posted a reaction to Michael Moore’s latest film, Planet of the Humans (directed and narrated by Jeff Gibbs), in which she began by admitting that she hadn’t seen the film yet. When writers take that approach, you know there’s already blood in the water. (She has since watched the film and written an actual review. Full disclosure: I’m in the film, included as one of the “good guys.” But I don’t intend to let that fact distort my comments in this review.) The film is controversial because it makes two big claims: first, that renewable energy is a sham; second, that big environmental organizations— by promoting solar and wind power—have sold their souls to billionaire investors. I feel fairly confident commenting on the first of these claims, regarding renewable energy, having spent a year working with David Fridley of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory to assess the prospects for a complete transition to solar and wind power. We found that the transition to renewables is going far too slowly to make much of a difference during the crucial next couple of decades, and would be gobsmackingly expensive if we were to try replacing all fossil fuel use with solar and wind. -
A Degrowth Response to an Ecomodernist Manifesto
A Call to Look Past An Ecomodernist Manifesto: A Degrowth Critique Authors and Endorsers: Jeremy Caradonna, Iris Borowy, Tom Green, Peter A. Victor, Maurie Cohen, Andrew Gow, Anna Ignatyeva, Matthias Schmelzer, Philip Vergragt, Josefin Wangel, Jessica Dempsey, Robert Orzanna, Sylvia Lorek, Julian Axmann, Rob Duncan, Richard B. Norgaard, Halina S. Brown, Richard Heinberg One of the counties within the province of sustainable development is now called “ecomodernism,” and it has come to prominence over the past few years, in part because of the figures associated with it, including prominent environmental thinkers such as Ted Nordhaus, Michael Shellenberger, and Stewart Brand. The New York Times recently praised the ecomodernist message in an article called, misleadingly, “A Call to Look Past Sustainable Development.”i Why is the article’s title so misleading? For the simple reason that the figures within ecomodernism want cultural and economic change that is sustainable, just like the rest of us; they simply want to move the focus of development in a new direction, even though this “new” direction seems surprisingly and troublingly conventional at times. The New York Times article mentions a new statement of principles that the ecomodernists published this year. It is called An Ecomodernist Manifesto (2015) and is co-authored by eighteen leading lights of the sustainability movement, including Nordhaus, Shellenberger, and Brand, but also the physicist David Keith, the scientist, Nobel Prize Winner, and Indian economist Joyashree Roy, and -
The Politics of Oil
SYLLABUS PS 399 (CRN 58533): The Politics of Oil Oregon State University, School of Public Policy Spring 2012 (4 credits) Tue & Thur 4-5:50pm, Gilkey 113 Instructor: Tamas Golya Office: Gilkey 300C Office Hours: Tue & Thur 10-11am Phone (during office hours): 541-737-1352 Email: [email protected] “The American Way of Life is not negotiable.” Dick Cheney, Former US Vice President “The species Homo sapiens is not going to become extinct. But the subspecies Petroleum Man most certainly is.” Colin Campbell, Founder of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil Course Description The world’s economic and political developments of the last century played out against the backdrop of a steadily rising supply of energy, especially oil. There are signs that this period of “easy energy” is coming to an end, turning energy into a major economic and political issue in its own right. Peak Oil is a term used by geologists to describe the point in time at which the world’s annual conventional oil production reaches a maximum after which it inevitably declines. Recent evidence suggests that we may pass this peak in this decade. In a broader sense, Peak Oil also stands for the economic, political, and societal effects of a dramatically changing energy supply. These effects will create unprecedented problems, risks and opportunities for policy makers as well as for consumers and businesses. In part due to higher oil prices, the US has begun to catch up to this issue, as evidenced by the founding of a Peak Oil Caucus in the House of Representatives in 2005 and by the demand of former President Bush to find ways to cure “America’s addiction to oil”. -
The End of Growth: Adapting to Our New
Advance Praise for The End of Growth Heinberg draws in the big three drivers of inevitable crisis—resource constraints, environmental impacts, and financial system overload—and explains why they are not individual challenges but one integrated system- ic problem. By time you finish this book, you will have come to two conclusions. First, we are not facing a re- cession—this is the end of economic growth. Second, this is not our children’s problem—it is ours. It’s time to get ready, and reading this book is the place to start. — PAUL GILDING, author, The Great Disruption, Former head of Greenpeace International Richard has rung the bell on the limits to growth. This is real. The consequences for economics, finance, and our way of life in the decades ahead will be greater than the consequences of the industrial revolution were for our recent ancestors. Our coming shift from quantity of con- sumption to quality of life is the great challenge of our generation—frightening at times, but ultimately freeing. — JOHN FULLERTON, President and Founder, Capital Institute Why have mainstream economists ignored environ- mental limits for so long? If Heinberg is right, they will 3/567 have a lot of explaining to do. The end of conventional economic growth would be a shattering turn of events—but the book makes a persuasive case that this is indeed what we are seeing. — LESTER BROWN, Founder, Earth Policy Institute and author, World on the Edge Heinberg shows how peak oil, peak water, peak food, etc. lead not only to the end of growth, and also to the beginning of a new era of progress without growth. -
The Ecotechnic Future: Envisioning a Post-Peak World John Michael Greer
The Ecotechnic Future: Envisioning a Post-Peak World John Michael Greer Click here if your download doesn"t start automatically The Ecotechnic Future: Envisioning a Post-Peak World John Michael Greer The Ecotechnic Future: Envisioning a Post-Peak World John Michael Greer “[John Michael] Greer’s work is nothing short of brilliant. He has the multidisciplinary smarts to deeply understand our human dilemma as we stand on the verge of the inevitable collapse of industrialism. And he wields uncommon writing skills, making his diagnosis and prescription entertaining, illuminating, and practically informative. Not to be missed.”—Richard Heinberg, Senior Fellow, Post Carbon Institute and author of Peak Everything “There is a great deal of conventional wisdom about our collective ecological crisis out there in books. The enormous virtue of John Michael Greer’s work is that his wisdom is never conventional, but profound and imaginative. There’s no one who makes me think harder, and The Ecotechnic Future pushes Greer’s vision, and our thought processes in important directions.” —Sharon Astyk, farmer, blogger, and author of Depletion and Abundance and A Nation of Farmers “In The Ecotechnic Future, John Michael Greer dispels our fantasies of a tidy, controlled transition from industrial society to a post-industrial milieu. The process will be ragged and rugged and will not invariably constitute an evolutionary leap for the human species. It will, however, offer myriad opportunities to create a society that bolsters complex technology which at the same -
Degrowth Journal of Cleaner Production
Journal of Cleaner Production 18 (2010) 519e522 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Journal of Cleaner Production journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jclepro Editorial Degrowth The publication of the proceedings of the April 2008 interna- Thesaurus, but the names aren't there to express this ‘cool down, tional conference in Paris dedicated to degrowth constitutes, as of take it easy, slack off, relax man’ included in the sense of degrowth. now, the richest and most complete collection analysing various ‘Decrease’ exists, but it is too exotic and essentialist (product more aspects of the subject. Though the matter has been mooted for quite than process) to capture the meaning. I sometimes ask myself if some time, the term Degrowth has only recently been used in terms like ‘decreasing, diminishing, moderating’ could not be economic and social debates, even if the origin of the ideas that it useful. ‘To grow or not to grow e that is the question!’ covers has a relatively old history. The expression does not appear ‘Moderate/Moderating Growth’? One could always quite simply as such in any dictionary of social sciences before 2006, where one leave ‘décroissance’ in the text, with an explanation in footnotes. I finds however entries on related themes such as “Zero Growth”, wonder whether the best translation would not be ‘decreasing “Sustainable Development” and of course “Steady State” [1]. While growth’” e that has the advantage of being at the same time passive the translation of the French Décroissance by Degrowth has still to (a simple fact) and active: it is, well, necessary to decrease; it is meet with unanimous approval, the project to which it answers necessary to decrease well; (here ‘decreasing’ would correspond already enjoys a relatively long and complex history and has not to a societal project or better still, to a true Social Project). -
1. What Is Sustainability?
1. What Is Sustainability? Further Reading Articles, Chapters, and Papers Barnofsky, Anthony D. et al. “Approaching a State Shift in Earth’s Biosphere.” Nature (June 7, 2012): 52–58. A review of evidence that, as with individual ecosystems, the global ecosystem as a whole can shift abruptly and irreversibly into a new state once critical thresholds are crossed, and that it is approaching a critical threshold as a result of human influence, and that there is a need to improve the detecting of early warning signs of state shift. Boström, Magnus, ed. “Special Issue: A Missing Pillar? Challenges in Theorizing and Practicing Social Sustainability.” Sustainability: Science, Practice, & Policy, vol. 8 no. 12 (winter 2012). Brown, J. and M. Purcell. “There’s Nothing Inherent about Scale: Political Ecology, the Local Trap, and the Politics of Development in the Brazilian Amazon.” Geoforum, vol. 36 (2005): 607–24. Clark, William C. “Sustainability Science: A Room of Its Own.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 104 no. 6 (February 6, 2007):1737–38. A report on the development of sustainability science as a maturing field with a core research agenda, methodologies, and universities teaching its methods and findings. Costanza, Robert et al. “The Value of the World’s Ecosystem Services and Natural Capital.” Nature, vol. 387 (1997): 253–60. Estimates the current economic value of 17 ecosystem services based on both published research and original calculations. Ehrlich, Paul R., Peter M. Kareiva, and Gretchen C. Daily. “Securing Natural Capital and Expanding Equity to Rescale Civilization.” Nature, vol. 486 (June 2012): 68–73.