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ROMAHDUS Vipu
ROMAHDUS ViPu Lokakuu 2014 1 Sisällys Lukijalle……………………………………………………… 2 1 Mikä romahdus?…………………………………………… 2 2 Romahduksen lajeista……………………………………… 6 3 Romahduksen vaiheista…………………………………… 15 4 Teoreetikkoja ja näkemyksiä……………………………… 17 5 Romahdus—maailmanloppu, apokalypsi, kriisi, utopia… 25 6 Romahdus ja selviytyminen………………………………. 29 7 Pitääkö romahdusta jouduttaa?…………………………… 44 8 Romahdus, tieto ja hallinta………………………………… 49 9 Romahdus ja politiikka…………………………………….. 53 2 Lukijalle Tämä teksti on osa pohdiskelua, jonka tarkoituksena on luoda pohjaa Vihreän Puolueen poliittiselle toiminnalle. Tekstin aiheena on jo monin paikoin ja tavoin alkanut teollisten sivilisaatioiden ja modernismin kehityskertomuksen romahdus. Tekstin ensimmäiset 8 lukua käsittelevät erilaisia teorioita, käsityksiä ja vapaampaankin ajatuksenlentoon nojaavia näkökulmia romahdukseen. Ne eivät siis missään nimessä edusta ViPun poliittisia käsityksiä tai tavotteita, vaan pohjustavat alustavia poliittisia johtopäätöksiä, jotka esitetään luvussa 9. Toisin sanoen luvut 1-8 pyörittelevät aihetta suuntaan ja toiseen ja luku 9 esittää välitilinpäätöksen, jonka on edelleen tarkoitus tarkentua ja elää tilanteen mukaan. Tätä romahdus-osiota on myös tarkoitus lukea muiden ViPun teoreettisten tekstien kanssa, niiden ristivalotuksessa. 1 Mikä romahdus? Motto: "Yhden maailman loppu on toisen maailman alku, yhden maailmanloppu on toisen maailmanalku." Moton sanaleikin tarkoitus on huomauttaa, että vaikka yhteiskunnan romahdus onkin yksilön ja ryhmän näkökulmasta vääjäämätön tapahtuma, johon -
1 Combined Wind/Pumped Hydro Energy System in WNY As An
Combined Wind/Pumped Hydro Energy System in WNY as an Alternative to Peak Oil Induced NY State Socioeconomic Disaster Derek Bateman [email protected] David Bradley [email protected] Submitted to the ESSCCA Conference, Buffalo, NY on April 1, 2001 1 Abstract The economy on which our civilization is based is both environmentally and economically unsustainable. Two obvious examples are the pending economic dislocation that will inevitably take place as a result of “Peak Oil” and Global Climate Change. For huge sectors of the economy many or most business models will no longer work when we are paying $5.00 to $20.00 a gallon for transportation fuel. What examples from social science research are available to prepare our society to avoid economic depression if not societal collapse? This paper will show how “Renewable Energy Feed-In Laws” (REFILs) can offer an approach to addressing Peak Oil and fossil fuel induced Global Climate Change, as well as Peak Oil induced economic damage. It also will focus on how wind turbines along with pumped hydroelectric energy storage and biomass for WNY/NY State can help address energy shortages that will result from Peak Oil while providing jobs and maximizing social cohesion. Summary • Global Warming and Peak Oil are related items • Oil combustion and oil consumption related infrastructure (e.g. cars, sub- urbs, car-centric shopping centers/malls, etc) are major emitters and/or causes of CO2 pollution, the major cause of Global Warming • Global Warming and Peak Oil have different time scales for noticeable effects and the timing of their impacts will often differ • Global Warming is mostly a weather, climate, rainfall, and ocean level phenomena, plus the effects of those on humans and their societies • Peak Oil is mostly an economic phenomena, and transportation (of goods and people) related • Peak Oil is a liquid fuels problem – liquid fuels have unique properties • Peak Oil is really a Peak World Oil Export problem for the U.S. -
Zeleni Alati Za Održivu Revoluciju Zagreb, Ožujak 2007
Bruno Motik Dražen Šimleša Zeleni alati za održivu revoluciju Zagreb, ožujak 2007. www.stocitas.org www.zmag.hr Autori: Bruno Motik i Dražen Šimleša Izdavači: Što čitaš i ZMAG Skeniranje i obrada ilustracija: Bruno Motik Grafička obrada: Marko Strpić Na našoj internet stranici potražite ostala izdanja i velik broj besplatnih elektroničkih knjiga i tekstova: www.stocitas.org 2 Sadržaj Uvod 5 Ekološki otisak - kako gazimo planet? 8 Hrvatska – mala zemlja za preveliki otisak 15 Permakultura – trajna revolucija 22 Pazi, hrana pada 26 Praktični savjeti za stvaranje permakulturnog vrta 33 Permakluturni dizajn 57 Izumiranje naftnog dinosaura 66 Zelena energija 76 Energija sunca 79 Energija vjetra 94 Transport 104 Energija biomase 107 Graditeljstvo 127 Održivo graditeljstvo 132 Otpad 153 Voda 162 Organizacija 174 Kako hodati nježnije - gradske priče 182 Prema praktičnim stazama održivosti 191 Literatura 202 3 4 UVOD Najbolje vrijeme za posaditi stablo bilo je prije deset godina. Slijedeće najbolje vrijeme je sad. Kineska poslovica U redu, najbolje vrijeme za objaviti ovakvu knjigu bilo je prije deset godina. Ali što da se radi. Prije deset godina smo brijali na pank, klupice u parku, gutali fanzine i šivali prišivke do zauvijek. Lagali bi kad bismo rekli da nam je žao. Uostalom, najljepša i najjača iskrica koja nas je zapalila za anarhopank – uradi sam kultura – danas je zaista prišivena na našim srcima. I što ćeš normalnije nego da mi nakon deset godina napišemo ovakvu knjigu. Zato jer je sad slijedeće najbolje vrijeme. Prije četiri godine smo krenuli u stvaranje Recikliranog imanja, našeg odsanjanog životnog prostora, ali i otvorenog edukacijskog centra. No, osim otvorenih srca i brda energije nismo imali previše znanja i vještina kako izgraditi jednu takvu priču. -
Michael: Welcome to This Episode of the Future Is Calling Us to Greatness
Michael: Welcome to this episode of The Future is Calling Us to Greatness. Today I’ll be talking with John Michael Greer, who is a peak oil writer, a blogger, actually, to be quite honest, of everyone that I’m interviewing in this series, I’ve not read anyone more deeply and more enthusiastically than John Michael. In face, my first introduction to him was just maybe eight months ago. I read The Ecotechnic Future. Richard Heinberg was the one that introduced me to that book. Then I listened to it. Fortunately it was available on audio. Then I’ve read several others of his books that I’ll talk about here. But John Michael, welcome to this podcast series, this interview series, on The Future is Calling Us to Greatness. John: Thank you. It’s a pleasure to be on. Michael: So John Michael, could you begin just by sharing with our viewers and listeners a little bit about your own background, your accomplishments, and especially what you’re particularly passionate about or interested in at this time. John: Well, I reached adulthood at the end of the 1970’s, the early 1980’s, at the last time that American society was showing any signs of paying attention to the future or any future outside of Ronald Reagan’s distorted imaginations. I was at that time very heavily involved in what we used to call the appropriate tech movement. There’s a phrase that doesn’t get a lot of reference these days, but doing things like solar energy and wind power, but not taking over vast amounts of Nevada. -
Dowd 2016 Oneing (Vol 4, No 2) Essay.Pages
Evidential Medicine for Our Collective Soul What’s Inevitable? What’s Redemptive? By Michael Dowd Religions are evolving. Nowhere is this more evident than in how spiritual leaders across the spectrum are expanding their views of revelation to include all forms of evidence. We are witnessing the birth of what I have been calling the Evidential Reformation,1 a time when all forms of evidence (scientific, historic, cross-cultural, experiential) are valued religiously. Crucially, ecology—the interdisciplinary study of God’s nature—becomes integral to theology. Pope Francis, Patriarch Bartholomew, the Dalai Lama, and the signers of the Islamic Declaration on Global Climate Change are spearheading this evidence-honoring greening of religion. The movement has been passionate and inspired for decades. But the noble sentiments that spawned care for Creation are no match for the crises now spinning out of control. It is time for a prophetic turbo-charging of our religious traditions. Foremost is the need to expand beyond the self-focus of individual salvation or enlightenment to also include vital community concerns—notably, survival. The community now, of course, is the entire human family and the more-than-human Earth community.2 A renewed call to action cannot be expected to offer pat solutions. Sadly, what were problems in the recent past have now exploded into predicaments. A predicament (by definition) is a kind of problem for which there are no solutions. It can neither be solved nor overcome; yet it is too impactful to ignore. A predicament must be dealt with conscientiously and continuously. Our responses can offer only more or less helpful interventions. -
Part I: Introduction
Part I: Introduction “Perhaps the sentiments contained in the following pages are not yet sufficiently fashionable to procure them general favor; a long habit of not thinking a thing wrong gives it a superficial appearance of being right, and raises at first a formidable outcry in defense of custom. But the tumult soon subsides. Time makes more converts than reason.” -Thomas Paine, Common Sense (1776) “For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst and provide for it.” -Patrick Henry (1776) “I am aware that many object to the severity of my language; but is there not cause for severity? I will be as harsh as truth. On this subject I do not wish to think, or speak, or write, with moderation. No! No! Tell a man whose house is on fire to give a moderate alarm; tell him to moderately rescue his wife from the hands of the ravisher; tell the mother to gradually extricate her babe from the fire into which it has fallen -- but urge me not to use moderation in a cause like the present. The apathy of the people is enough to make every statue leap from its pedestal, and to hasten the resurrection of the dead.” -William Lloyd Garrison, The Liberator (1831) “Gas is running low . .” -Amelia Earhart (July 2, 1937) 1 2 Dear Reader, Civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon. This is not the wacky proclamation of a doomsday cult, apocalypse bible prophecy sect, or conspiracy theory society. -
Museletter 327 / May 2020
MuseLetter 327 / May 2020 richardheinberg.com MuseLetter #327 / May 2020 by Richard Heinberg Dear Readers, This month I offer two short pieces: my review of Planet of the Humans, a new film produced by Michael Moore; and "Nobody Takes Renewable Energy Transition Seriously," in which I offer suggestions for what we should do if we really want to get society off of fossil fuels and avert catastrophic climate change. Stay safe and healthy, Richard Review: Planet of the Humans A few days ago, Emily Atkin posted a reaction to Michael Moore’s latest film, Planet of the Humans (directed and narrated by Jeff Gibbs), in which she began by admitting that she hadn’t seen the film yet. When writers take that approach, you know there’s already blood in the water. (She has since watched the film and written an actual review. Full disclosure: I’m in the film, included as one of the “good guys.” But I don’t intend to let that fact distort my comments in this review.) The film is controversial because it makes two big claims: first, that renewable energy is a sham; second, that big environmental organizations— by promoting solar and wind power—have sold their souls to billionaire investors. I feel fairly confident commenting on the first of these claims, regarding renewable energy, having spent a year working with David Fridley of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory to assess the prospects for a complete transition to solar and wind power. We found that the transition to renewables is going far too slowly to make much of a difference during the crucial next couple of decades, and would be gobsmackingly expensive if we were to try replacing all fossil fuel use with solar and wind. -
Policy 11.Qxd.Qxd
1755 Massachusetts Ave., NW Suite 700 Washington, D.C. 20036 – USA T: (+1-202) 332-9312 F: (+1-202) 265-9531 E: [email protected] www.aicgs.org 34 AICGS POLICY REPORT OVERCOMING THE LETHARGY: CLIMATE CHANGE, ENERGY SECURITY, AND THE CASE FOR A THIRD INDUSTRIAL Located in Washington, D.C., the American Institute for Contemporary German Studies is an independent, non-profit public policy organization that works REVOLUTION in Germany and the United States to address current and emerging policy challenges. Founded in 1983, the Institute is affiliated with The Johns Hopkins University. The Institute is governed by its own Board of Trustees, which includes prominent German and American leaders from the business, policy, and academic communities. Alexander Ochs Building Knowledge, Insights, and Networks for German-American Relations AMERICAN INSTITUTE FOR CONTEMPORARY GERMAN STUDIES THE JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY TABLE OF CONTENTS Foreword 3 About the Author 5 The American Institute for Contemporary German Studies strengthens the German-American relation - Chapter 1: Introduction 7 ship in an evolving Europe and changing world. The Institute produces objective and original analyses of Chapter 2: Climate Change and Energy Security: An Analysis of developments and trends in Germany, Europe, and the United States; creates new transatlantic the Challenge 9 networks; and facilitates dialogue among the busi - ness, political, and academic communities to manage Chapter 3: The Third Industrial Revolution: How It Might Look - differences and define and promote common inter - or Is It Already Happening? 17 ests. Chapter 4: Making the Economic Case for Climate Action 23 ©2008 by the American Institute for Contemporary German Studies Chapter 5: A New Era for Transatlantic Cooperation on Energy ISBN 1-933942-12-6 and Climate Change? 35 ADDITIONAL COPIES: Notes 47 Additional Copies of this Policy Report are available for $5.00 to cover postage and handling from the American Institute for Contemporary German Studies, 1755 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Suite 700, Washington, DC 20036. -
Anatomy of the 10-Year Cycle in Crude Oil Prices Philip K. Verleger
Anatomy of the 10-Year Cycle in Crude Oil Prices Philip K. Verleger, Jr. David Mitchell/EnCana Professor of Strategy and International Management Haskayne School of Business University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada March 2009 John Wiley & Sons published Twilight in the Desert in 2005. The book’s author, Mat- thew Simmons, contends the world will confront very high and rising oil prices shortly because the capacity of Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil producer, is insufficient to meet the future needs of oil consumers. In 448 pages, Simmons extensively discusses his views regarding Saudi Arabia’s future production levels. He asserts that the Saudis have refused to provide details about their reserves, insinuating at several points that the Kingdom’s leaders withhold information to keep the truth from the public. At its core, Simmons’ book is no more than a long exposition of the peak oil theory first espoused by King Hubbert in 1956. Hubbert, it may be recalled, studied the pattern of discovery of super giant oil fields. His review led him to conclude that world productive capacity would peak and then begin to decline. In 1974, Hubbert suggested the global zenith would occur around 1995. Simmons and other adherents to the “peak oil theory” enjoyed great prominence in the first half of 2008. Again and again, one read or heard that the oil price rise was occurring be- cause the flow from world oil reserves had reached or was approaching the maximum while de- mand was still growing. Here’s what one economist wrote just as prices peaked: Until this decade, the capacity to supply oil had been growing just as fast as de- mand, leaving plenty of room to expand production at the first sign of rising pric- es. -
Global Oil Risks in the Early 21St Century
CORE Metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk Provided by Munich RePEc Personal Archive MPRA Munich Personal RePEc Archive Global oil risks in the early 21st century Dean Fantazzini and Mikael Hook and Andr´e Angelantoni Moscow School of Economics, Moscow State University, Russia, Uppsala University, Global Energy Systems, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Uppsala, Sweden, www.PostPeakLiving.com (USA) 1. February 2011 Online at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/33825/ MPRA Paper No. 33825, posted 30. September 2011 17:16 UTC Global oil risks in the early 21st Century Dean Fantazzini∗ Mikael H¨o¨ok† Andr´eAngelantoni‡ Abstract The Deepwater Horizon incident demonstrated that most of the oil left is deep offshore or in other difficult to reach locations. Moreover, obtaining the oil remaining in currently producing reservoirs requires additional equipment and technology that comes at a higher price in both capital and energy. In this regard, the physical limitations on producing ever-increasing quantities of oil are highlighted as well as the possibility of the peak of production occurring this decade. The economics of oil supply and demand are also briefly discussed showing why the available supply is basically fixed in the short to medium term. Also, an alarm bell for economic recessions is shown to be when energy takes a disproportionate amount of total consumer expenditures. In this context, risk mitigation practices in government and business are called for. As for the former, early education of the citizenry of the risk of economic contraction is a prudent policy to minimize potential future social discord. -
Twilight in the Desert: Twilight in the Desert: Conventionalconventional Energyenergy Wisdom:Wisdom: Middlemiddle Easteast Oiloil Isis Limitlesslimitless
TwilightTwilight InIn TheThe Desert:Desert: TheThe FadingFading OfOf SaudiSaudi Arabia’sArabia’s OilOil Hudson Institute September 9, 2004 Washington, DC Presented By: Matthew R. Simmons ConventionalConventional EnergyEnergy Wisdom:Wisdom: MiddleMiddle EastEast OilOil IsIs LimitlessLimitless All long-term oil supply/ demand models assume Middle East oil can grow as fast as oil demand rises. Middle East oil will also be “cheap”. If more is needed, drill anywhere. SIMMONS & COMPANY INTERNATIONAL SaudiSaudi ArabiaArabia IsIs TheThe MiddleMiddle East’sEast’s OilOil KingKing Energy planners’ assumption: – Saudi Arabia can produce 10, 15, 20 or even 25 million barrels per day. Common belief: – More oil can easily be found; – Many discovered but yet to be produced fields are waiting in the wings. SIMMONS & COMPANY INTERNATIONAL SaudiSaudi ArabiaArabia IsIs World’sWorld’s “Oil“Oil Cornerstone”Cornerstone” World’s top oil exporter. 25% of world’s reported proved reserves. SaudiSaudi Arabia:Arabia: Lowest cost oil producer. The World’s Only significant provider of “Oil Cornerstone” spare daily capacity. Image Courtesy of National Geographic. No other oil producer could begin to replace a Saudi Arabian oil shortfall. SIMMONS & COMPANY INTERNATIONAL ThisThis MiddleMiddle EastEast EnergyEnergy BeliefBelief IsIs AnAn IllusionIllusion The Golden Middle East oil is NOT Triangle “everywhere”. Few giant oilfields were found after mid-1960s. Many giant producers are nearly depleted. SIMMONS & COMPANY INTERNATIONAL EvenEven SaudiSaudi Arabia’sArabia’s GreatGreat OilOil ResourcesResources AreAre ScarceScarce Seven key fields produce Field 1994 Production 90%+ of Saudi Arabia’s oil. (B/D) Ghawar 5,000,000 Safaniya 960,000 Average “life” of this produced oil is 45 to Abqaiq 650,000 50 years. -
The End of Growth: Adapting to Our New
Advance Praise for The End of Growth Heinberg draws in the big three drivers of inevitable crisis—resource constraints, environmental impacts, and financial system overload—and explains why they are not individual challenges but one integrated system- ic problem. By time you finish this book, you will have come to two conclusions. First, we are not facing a re- cession—this is the end of economic growth. Second, this is not our children’s problem—it is ours. It’s time to get ready, and reading this book is the place to start. — PAUL GILDING, author, The Great Disruption, Former head of Greenpeace International Richard has rung the bell on the limits to growth. This is real. The consequences for economics, finance, and our way of life in the decades ahead will be greater than the consequences of the industrial revolution were for our recent ancestors. Our coming shift from quantity of con- sumption to quality of life is the great challenge of our generation—frightening at times, but ultimately freeing. — JOHN FULLERTON, President and Founder, Capital Institute Why have mainstream economists ignored environ- mental limits for so long? If Heinberg is right, they will 3/567 have a lot of explaining to do. The end of conventional economic growth would be a shattering turn of events—but the book makes a persuasive case that this is indeed what we are seeing. — LESTER BROWN, Founder, Earth Policy Institute and author, World on the Edge Heinberg shows how peak oil, peak water, peak food, etc. lead not only to the end of growth, and also to the beginning of a new era of progress without growth.