ames Mckay ow dbyJ edite and Benjamin Dickson al uture nf am of bo re car ad

Adream of alow carbon future McKay /Dickson emarkable ar ore sustainable am ustainable, low carbon etter future, you should as ab ike? he planet? ction art, and informed by the fi kl tont ositive vision for ap ow Carbon Future’ adopts the unique approach of r” uture might be like. When problem-solving, it is often aL ovel is the equivalent of that rough sketch” Wa af cn You nspire people with ositive future where we are not only adapting to climate change but -toi ap mpact on the planet, and want to help create uide. This graphi si he future will loo ag cult task orts to understand our impact on the planet, and to create ust Read Before ffi ff tt uM ery di Yo holly realistic about the av ook about the future that is wha gw ab orum for the Future out humanity’s impac ositive narrative of the future. ‘A Dream of ,F reatively designed and executed, and ap ow Carbon Future’, imagines lanet.” ab aL art have been used to show what living in such sP ssoc fi ickson ou are concerned about humanity’ nD ndered .Ify ned ow Carbon Future’ attempts ough sketch of the desired outcome as ustainable, low carbon and equitable world. aL ar wo omics and sci- hat lie ahead. It’ as ,c st uge challenge to create ked hundreds of school children, writers, scientists, engineers and comic artists to visualise their ideas. This book, the sequel

ah as ollaborative graphic novel with contributions from scientists, artists, writers, students and school children to build

Cover art by James McKay Cover design by Benjami Jonathon Porritt, Founder Director fate of our dear and preciou antidote to all those who feel crushed by despair at the still worsening so full of provocative and fascinating ideas, that it provides the perfect Paul Gravett, author of “1001 Graphic Novels read this book for inspiration.” challenge “It is ac “How incredibly refreshing to have Die” vision of tomorrow wonderfully positive, whilst remainin vital to draw

From the foreword by Jeremy Leggett, author of “The Winning of the Carbon Ever ‘“A Dream of future. Concer future which avoids totally catastrophic climate change but doesn’t shy away from some serious impacts we’re already heading for. Unusually thriving in We The news is full of doom and gloom regarding the future. Through the medium of comics and science- ideas of leading thinkers, we instead celebrate the e to the acclaimed ‘Dreams of Project Leader:Prof Paul Williams INDEX Energy 39-43 Palaeocene-Eocene Th Editors: JamesMckay andBenjaminDickson Aeroplanes 46 Energy Demand 43 ermalMaximum 8-10 Afrosindian Alliance 73,55 Energy Gardens27-40 PanArctica 87-90 ProjectAssistant:Emily Bryan-Kinns Agriculture 36 Environmental limits 64-69 Parasite 72 Airpollution18,51 EROI 6 Peak Oil20 Unlesshand-drawn,all lettering,composition anddesignisbyBenjamin Dickson Airtravel46,47 Evapotranspiration 51 Permaculture 30-35 Angels rail 51,72 Extinction 73 Permafrost thaw 87 Antibiotics 51 First City 16 Phosphorus69 Credits: Anti-fragile22Flamingoes 80-82 Photosynthesis12 Arrhenius,Svante65Flooding34,35,78-83 Photovoltaics 42 Titlepage—cartoonusedcourtesy of Joel Pett Page 72—AmesRuben text by Corban Wilkin Atmosphere 12,18,51 Food 36-37 Phytoplankton14 Page 7—Energy transitionbyMarkWilkinson Page 73—Lynxand Dales habitat text by Mark Fisher BayofYork80Forest fires75Planetaryboundaries 69 Page 10/56/61/88-90— ArtbyCorbanWilkin, partial text by Corban Wilkin, Pages74/75—Salico text fragmentsbyDougieFhillips, Little Greenbyart by Beaver 73 Forests70-75 Pollution69 Bees 27,50 Fossil Fuels 17-20,39 Population 23 basedonaconcept by LizStainforth John Swogger, ‘LittleGreenby’title by GillianFinnerty Bieberia 35,50 FractalEnergyGrid39,42,43 Port of Beverley 87 Pages11-20 -BluePearl text adaptedfrom ‘HalfGone’ by Jeremy Leggett Page 76—Arcologyart by John Swogger BigShift 58,65 Fusion72Powerstation 40 Page 16/17—Catalhoyuk landscapeart by John Swogger Page 77—Sar-Zhen text by Justin Waine; conceptbyPaulWilliams Biochar40,41 GaianBioeconomy64-69 Priestley,Joseph4,65 Page22— Intro text(1st paragraph)bySam Pickard Page 78—Doggerlandart by John Swogger, maps adaptedfrom National Geo- Biodiversity27,70,73 Gas18Public Transport 44-45,48 Bioenergy40,41 Geoengineering 40 Rainforest 68 Page23and 80—Elmet mapsbyJeffreyLinn graphic Dec 2012 Biomass34,40 Geothermal energy 85 RedKites 73,77 Page 24—editedtext by Clare Linton andRachael Unsworth Page 80 and82—portraits by HannahMcCann Biorefinery 34,40 Glaciers79,87 Refrigeration 29 Page 26/27—editedtextbyEddyMitchelland RachaelUnsworth Page 83—Iat ChongRestaurant text by AidanSmith Birds(of BayofYork) 81-83 Global warming18,23 Refugees 23,84 Page 28—Lea text by Caroline Hellgren,Co-optext by HannahMcCann Blue Pearl11-20,58-60 Greenhouse effect18,65 Re-wilding34,73 Brotherhood of theLastMile47,48 Greenhouse gases13,18,23,87 Rhizosphere37 Page 29—Myrtilletext by Katrina Adam,Tiernantext by Eddy Mitchell Page 84/85—SettlementbyJohnSwogger,Phaedra portraitbyHannahMc- Bulrushes 42 HaberProcess91Ruben, Ames72 Pages30-33—Permaculture Principles courtesy of thePermaculture Associa- Cann, Phaedra text by EveCarcas, SeaKinglanguage by MiaMckay Capitalism72,77 Hansen, James65Salico,Sebastiao 74,75 tion,art by EmmaChinnery Page 86—Religiontext by AndreaFranklin, quotes from Luther StandingBear; Carbon capture andstorage 40 Health 50,51 SeaKings 50,84,85 Page 33—Forest Garden captions adaptedfrom ‘Forest Gardening’ by Robert “Evergreen”—poembyJonathanHirst akaJoe Nodus Carbon Cycle12-18,69 Herepath 55 SeaLevel Rise 23,78-79 Carbon Dioxide 12,18-19,40,68 Housing26,27 Shipping 47,60 Hart Page 87—Leavingfor PanArcticaart by Hannah McCann Carboniferousperiod13Hurricanes29,58 SmartTransport 47 Page 38—treeart by Kirn Jutlla Page 88—90 text adaptedbyCorbanWilkinfrom storybyJamie Bright Carlotta54Hydrogen 40 Soil 30,40,68 Page 39-43— Energy text fragmentsbySteve Hall Page 90—Elmet text by RachaelUnsworth Cars 46-48 Hypercarbonates26,43 Solarclothes dryer27 Page 48—Transporttext by Rachael Unsworth Page 94—PhotosofworkshopbyAnnaWoolman,art by students from Mirfield Catatumbolightning23,85 IceAge 15,78 Solarenergy42 Catchment 35,75 Industrial Revolution17Storage43 Page 49—Cycle mapbyRobin Lovelace,Transport HubbyGrisha Grebennikov, GrammarSchool; Skipton Girls High School;WakefieldCityAcademy; David Cement/concrete 43 Insect farm 26,37 Survivalists 72 Airships by Mark Wilkinson YoungAcademy, Leeds; NicolasHawksmoorPrimary School,Towcester; Priest- Chatterton Act27Internationalcooperation 55,65 TarSands 20 Page 50/51—Health text by Iona McCleery,fragmentsfrom JannikGiesekam horpe School, Leeds; LeedsGrand Mosque Scout group;KingJames School, Chevin tech hub10,57 IPCC94Temperature change18,23 Page 52—MondaytextbyElena Trowsdale Knaresborough Circulareconomy 66-69 JragnFligh22Thalweg34,35 Citizen’s Income 67 Keeling, Charles 65 Thousand Flowers 55,65 Page 53—LeedsCyclingart by EmmaChinnery Page 95/96—Knowledge andImagination Resourcesreadinglist compiled by Climatechange 18-20,58,78-87 Kitejammer 47 Tiernan29 Pages54-55—City text by Rachael Unsworth, RachaelUnsworth Coal 13,77 Knaresborough 24,25 Tipping point23,87 Pages58-60—BluePearl text adaptedfrom ‘HalfGone’ by Jeremy Leggett Communism 72,77 Kytoons74Trains 44,47 Pages62/63—PerilsofProgresstext andart by Joel Millward-Hopkins Allother artand text by JamesMckay Computer models 79 Lea28Transport 44-49 COP21 65 Leeds44,53-55 Tyndall,John65 Page 64-69—GaianBioeconomytext adaptedfrom resources provided by Dan Cretaceous14LILAC 26,27 United Northern Kingdom23,71 O’Neill Theeditors apologisefor anyomissions or mistakes in theabove attributions Da HaiYou Min(SeaKings) 84 London Basin 8-9 UNOColonialAuthorities 57,74 Page 68—Industrial ecosystem text adaptedfrom ‘ReinventingFire’ by Amory De Bordes, Maia 25 Lovelock,James 65 Urbangreen space 51,55 Lovins Thanks to thefollowing models! DeepTime86Lovins,Amory 68 Urbanheatislandeffect55 Deforestation73Lynx 73 Utopia71 “Cast” in order of appearance: Democracy77Marine reserves 25,34 Vegetarianism37 Maia—Michelle Akure Derwentvirus50,73 Mason, Kingsley 22,28,56,88-90 Vieri, Tina 50,51 Tiernan—EddyMitchell Desalinisation 42 Merantau 24,77 VirtualPower Plant43 Japhet—KiranParmar Diseases 50 Methane87Watercycle 69 Doggerland 78 Myrtille29Weather23 Tina Vieri—IonaMcCleery Drought29Neomania 7 Wells, H.G. 6 ShaminaLalloo—Paula McNamee Dryad 37,38,52 Ngosi 54-55 Wild boar 73 Governor Chimalagi—YeshuiZhang Dystopia3NitrousOxide 43 Wind energy 39,42 Ames Ruben—Ramzi Cherad Earth12Nodus, Joe86Wolf 73 Ecology25,86 Nuclearenergy42Zones(permaculture)35 SebastiaoSalico—DougiePhillips Economy64-67 O’Byrne, Sar-Zhen 77,85 Religious girl—AndreaFranklin Ecosystem68-69 Oceanacidification 79 Electricity 19,39-43 Oil17-20 Elmet22Oxygen 12 Empire of Oil18 adream of alow carbonfuture

editedbyJames Mckayand BenjaminDickson withaforeword by Jeremy Leggett

‘The oldest task in human history –tolive on apieceofland without spoiling it’ –Aldo Leopold

1 Acknowledgements

As editor andprojectmanager,James Mckaywould like to thankProf Paul PhDResearchStudentsinthe EPSRC Centresfor Doctoral Trainingin Williams,Directorofthe EPSRC Centre forDoctoralTraining in Low LowCarbonTechnologies, Bioenergyand Next Generation Nuclear: Carbon Technologies; Prof JennyJones, Directorofthe EPSRC Centre for Katrina Adam,RobertBloom,James Hammerton, Vicky Hoolohan,Kelly Doctoral TraininginBioenergy;and Prof PiersForster, Directorofthe Marsh, Jennifer Norris, Kate Palmer,DougiePhillips, AidanSmith,Chris Priestley International Centre forClimateatthe UniversityofLeeds forall Vingoe, Dave Allen, Jamie Bright,Stephen Chilton, Joshua Cottom,Lloyd their supportand encouragement throughout the‘Dreams of aLow Carbon Davies, BenDooley, Harriet Fletcher,EddyMitchell, Morgan Tatchell- Future’projects. Evans, Thom Best,RuthBush,AndyDixon,Ray Edmunds,Holly Edwards, JannikGiesekam,James Gooding, DavidJacques, Ross Jarrett, ClareLinton, This projectdeveloped from ‘Dreams of aLow Carbon Future’supported Rici Marshall,Paula McNamee, RichardRiley,JoanneRobinson, Helen by theRoyal Academy of Engineering’sINGENIOUSschemefor science Saunders, ChrisSmith,GemmaBrady, ZarashpeKapadia, DavidWyatt,Jayne outreach,shortlisted forthe NCCPEEngageAwards2014. Detailscan be Windeatt,PhilippaUsher, RamziCherad,Tom Lynch, SamPickard,Hannah foundonthe Academy’swebsite. James, GillianHarrison, PhilippaHardy,ShemaiahWeekes, Diarmaid Clery, Luke Conibear,AndrewDyer, GillianFinnerty,OliverGrasham, Hana Thanks also to: Mandová, Tomi Oladipo,KiranParmar, LeeRoberts, CharlotteStead, Robert White, Richard Birley,EllaBlanquet,Natalie Brown, Julius Gane, George Monbiot, author of ‘Feral’ and‘Heat’; Jonathon Porritt,authorof ChrisHolt, ChristianMichelbach, DavidPotter,IramRazaq,Samantha ‘TheWorld We Made’; Derrick Jensen, author of ‘Endgame’; Jeremy Leggett, Sime,Daisy Thomas,Weiyi Yao, Nicola Wood,Jeni Spragg,Charlotte author of ‘TheEnergyOfNations’for useofhisstory ‘TheBluePearl’; Prof Weaver,JessicaShiels,Charlotte Parrington, JaiyanaBux, Helen Freeman SirDavid Mackay,authorof‘SustainableEnergyWithout theHot Air’;Prof Kate Pickett, co-authorof‘TheSpiritLevel’for delivering aworkshoptothe Otherstudents: Jonathan Carruthers-Jones, Jonathan Acomb, Yeshui projectstudents; Dr DanO’Neill andDrRob Dietz, authorsof‘Enough is Zhang,JoelMillward-Hopkins,ElenaTrowsdale,MitchellGregory,Anna Enough’for supporting andinspiring theproject andcontent forthe Gaian Woolman Bioeconomy section;Prof Thomas StockerofIPCC; Prof KevinAnderson, Tyndall Centre forClimateChange Research;Sir Alan Langlands, Vice- At King James andStJohn’sCof ESchoolsKnaresborough: Chancellor,UniversityofLeeds;Prof Patricia Thornley,SUPERGEN Teachers Mark Birch, SteveHutchinsonand Rowan BioenergyHub;PaulGravett,authorof‘1001 Graphic Novels youmust Feltham; AmyRossand Faye Pashby andtheir students read before youdie’; CorinnePearlman, editor,MyriadEditions; Lydia Wyzsocki,AppliedComics Network; RogerMartin, Population Matters; At LeedsGrand Mosque ScoutGroup: Ismail Saddiq andstudents GavinWood, CTCCycling; JoeAtkinson,UKPermaculture Association; JeffreyLinn, forhis amazingsea levelrisemaps; Laurie Goering, Thomson At Priesthorpe School: Teachers Tom Reuters, forcoverage of theproject; Dr DavidCarlson,Director, World Butterworthand PeterSolowka andtheir students. ClimateResearchProgramme;MaraDambour andRowanna Cromerford of EUMETSAT,DarmstadtGermany,for an invitation to contributeart Artists: Corban Wilkin, EmmaChinnery, Hannah McCann, Mark to theEUMETSATClimateSymposium, October 2014; Paul Manners, Wilkinson,JohnSwogger,KirnJutlla, Grisha Grebennikov Directorofthe National CoordinatingCentrefor Public Engagement (NCCPE), andSophie Duncan,Becci Felthamfor theinvitationtohosta National Geographic magazineprovidedthe inspiration forthe format project sessionatthe Engage Conference December2014; TudorGwyn of some partsofthe bookand referencefor many of thepictures. The andLiz Peniston at Eureka! Children’s museum Halifax forinvitationtoa documentaryphotographs of SebastiaoSalgado,Don McCullin, Francis workshoponanewgallerybased on Sustainability;Laura Winter,JoTrigg, Frith, FrankSutcliffe, Godfrey Bingleyand DorotheaLangewerealso Manisha Lalloo andBen Gammon of theRoyal AcademyofEngineering an inspiration,along with 19thCYorkshirescenesbythe painterJohn INGENIOUSscheme; Justin Waine, fordiscussions on economics; Dr Atkinson Grimshaw,the science-fictionand fantasy artofJimBurns,Simon RachaelUnsworth; Miriam Unsworth forproofreadingthe book;Sara Stålenhag,Léo,James Gurney andSyd Mead; andthe environmental artof Kettle; Pete Shortand Mark Cleaver, RSPB;DrSimon Mair,Centrefor Helen Mayer andNewtonHarrison. UnderstandingSustainableProsperity; JoeNodus forhis poems;Prof AndrewHeyes,UniversityofStrathclyde; Dr TimothyFoxon,University Some artwas createdaspart of theEU-funded“Bottom-UpClimate of Sussex, foruse of the Thousand Flowers concept; JeffreyBennett, author AdaptationStrategies TowardsaSustainableEurope” (BASE) project2016, of ‘A Global WarmingPrimer’;Julia Meaton,UniversityofHuddersfield, aDepartmentfor TransportFunded“National Propensity to CycleTool” whoencouragedustoincorporate Permaculture into ourfuturevision. project, 2015 -2016, EdinburghInternational Science Festival 2015, British Science Festival 2015, Future Cities workshopLeeds2014, Leeds2050 Supportstaff at the UniversityofLeeds: Emily Bryan-Kinns,Margo CyclingCampaign2014. Hanson,KateLock, AndreaFranklin,PatriciaGray, GedHall,Nicola Smith, DeborahFraites,Kerry Baker, PreCarbo,RuthHolland andthe Accessand TheIntergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange(IPCC) 5thAssessment Engagement Team,James Dixon-Gough,MikeHowroyd,ClaireBastin report 2014, andUKCP09 predictionsbythe MetOffice were used as andthe Sustainability Services Team,Lizzie Reather, Alexa Ruppertsberg, referencefor climateand impactsbut artistic license wastaken. We used LizStainforth,Katie Tapply,IsabelCotton,EmmaRichardson, Jennifer some of themostgloomyscenarios forclimate(RCP8.5) to illustrate Scattergood. negative impacts, then went further(e.g. forsea levelrise). We used themost optimistic projectionsfor reducedemissions (e.g.SharedSocio-Economic Academicsatthe University of Leeds: Prof PeterTaylor, Prof John Barrett, PathwaySSP1—Taking theGreen Road after O’Neill 2014) andagain took Prof Alison Tomlin, Prof Andrew Shepherd,Prof PiersForster, Prof William thesefurther. Theaim wastovisuallyhighlight some of themostdamaging Gale,DrCharlotteHaigh,DrDominickSpracklen, Dr RobinLawlor, Dr consequences of climatechange at thesametimeasbeingasoptimistic as Iona McCleery,DrChunfei Wu,DrKatyRoelich, Dr CatherineBale, Dr possible about ourability to deal with them. DanTrowsdale,DrAndyTurner, Dr SteveCarver, Dr Mark Fisher, Dr Olivia Rendon,DrDan O’Neill,DrPaulChatterton, Dr RobinLovelace,Dr Lauren Gregoire,DrCat Scott,DrSteve Hall,DrJames Witts, Dr Jonathan Ward

2 Foreword

“Thecombined effects of population growth andclimate change, andthe implications in termsofpolitical upheaval,globalhealthand energy,food and watersecurityare almostunimaginablefor someone of my generation. Iwanttoliveinasociety that is readyfor thesechallenges–willing to takeon board newideas, insightsand technologicalinnovations that challengeconventionindefining andrespondingtohuman welfarechallenges relating to health, education, environmental degradation, humanrights, conflicts andgovernance.”

SirAlanLanglands(Vice-Chancellor, UniversityofLeeds)

“Sowehavetodothe impossible andimagine the next century. Thedefault probabilityisbad –not just dystopia, butcatastrophe,amassextinction eventthatwewillhavecausedand thensuffered ourselves. That’s astory we should tell,repeatedly, butit’sonlyhalfthe probabilityzone. It is also within our powers to create asustainable permaculture in ahealthy biosphere.”

KimStanley Robinson (authorofRed Mars,2312) quoted in Nautilus onlinemagazineJuly2014

Theaim of this bookistoillustratesomeideas aboutapositive,low throughoptimism—byshowing (literally) what apositive future would carbon future,along thelines that KimStanley Robinson has outlined look like andfeellike. above. By all accountsthishas been hard work! Theimplications of It is difficult to seeaway forwardwhenour problemsare so large, climatechange, andthe necessary transitiontoalowcarbonfuture, complex andfull of uncertainty.Ifwecould be more certain of agood provide atruly daunting challenge. place we wanted to getto, it wouldbeeasier forustomakechanges today. This book attempts averydifficult task -toinspire people with a positive visionwhichavoidstotallycatastrophic climatechangebut This bookshows oneview. It’s astart. Theeditors freely admititislittle doesn’t shyawayfrom some seriousimpacts we’realready headingfor. more than a‘sketch’ora‘conceptdesign’.Whenproblem-solving, it is often vital to drawarough sketch of thedesired outcome as aguide. Unusually,comics andsci-fi arthavebeenusedtoshowwhatlivingin This graphicnovel is theequivalentofthatrough sketch.It’snot ablue- such afuturemight be like.Contributions have come from hundreds print—there aremanythings left unresolved or only hinted at. The of school children, artistsand othermembers of thepublic, dozensof editorsinvitereaderstouse their imaginationtofill in gaps or inconsis- PhDresearchstudents, andalsofrom experts in many fields including tencies. If this inspires people to thinkmore deeply about ourfuture, it energy,sustainability, lowcarbonhousing, ethics andsoon. Theeditors will have rendered an importantservice. have triedtotakeintoaccountmanydiverse contributors’ perspectives throughout thebook–very difficult to do. Jeremy Leggett, author of ‘TheWinning of the Carbon War’ and‘Energy of Nations’ Thereare many different potential outcomestoour present predicament, but howdoweenableapositive future?Manyhavetried, andfew canagree.Mostadmittheir visions aretroubling. Many people have closed theirminds to “dystopia” (a badfuture)—orsuccumbedto despair. This bookisremarkablefor thefactthatitaimstoinfluence

3 If youwould like to find outmore aboutthisproject, please All artis©individual creators 2016 contacteditorJames Mckay Allmistakes andomissions are theeditors’. [email protected] Allviews andopinions arethose of theindividualcreatorsand do not represent thesupportingorganisations. Or visitwww.engineering.leeds.ac.uk/dtclowcarbon Printedon100% recycled post-consumer waste. First published2016 by UniversityofLeeds We wouldbedelighted if theprojectart andideas were used and This projectisdedicated to the memory of widely disseminated foreducational purposes, butpleasenotifythe creators first (via theemail above) andcreditappropriately. Prof DavidMackay andDrAndy Dixon

HEALTH WARNING:

Many aspectsofthe future societyinthe followingpages areCONTROVERSIALand involve useofIMAGINATIONand WISHFUL THINKING. Thoseofanervous disposition shouldput thebookdownnow!

Many of thecontributorstothe projectDON’Tacceptthe visionofthe future presentedinthisbook(we’vetried to include their critical views).

Whilewehaveattempted to check factsand figures, this is notintendedtobe atextbook. It combines existingtechnologies andhistorical events with sci-fi inventions.Wehopereaderswillunderstandthispoint.

We cannot possibly hope to coverall issues involvedinafair andbalanced way—manypeoplehavespent their entire careersresearching itemsthatwebrush past in asinglesentenceorpicture. Thosewho want to find out more shouldturntothe ‘Knowledge andImagination Resources’section.

Some of theadvisorstothisprojectare world-leadingscientificexperts in their field. Some contributorsare comics artistswithno scientificbackground. Others are12-yearold school children! Theeditors believe all contributions giveningood faithare equally important.

Below: theskyline of Elmet’s Leeds Hubdominated by the statue of Joseph Priestley (1733-1804) erectedin2116. Priestley is credited with the discovery of oxygen andcarbondioxide andthe carbon cycle(photosynthesis).

4 Contents

Introduction 6 Maia andNujod 8 TheStory of theBluePearl Part One11 Elmet–MyGarden City 21 Permaculture 30 Food 36 Energy 39 Transport 44 Health 50 Aday in thelife… 52 TheStory of theBluePearl Part Two58 ThePerilsofProgress62 TheGaian Bioeconomy64 ThePeopleofthe Pennines 70 TheRisingWaters78 Leavingfor PanArctica 87 Timeline1600-2150 91 Glossary 92 Howthisbookwas created94 Knowledgeand ImaginationResources 95 Index Inside Back Cover

5 HOWTOREAD THIS BOOK:

It’s impossibletopredict the future…that’snot what What does this implyfor our future?How do youend up with a this bookisabout. positive result andnot adisaster? We areusedtodeveloping shiny newtechnologies to invent ourway out of trouble, but that is unlikely to be sufficient.Muchharder is to reduce ourdemandfor energyand This isthe storyofone particular positive view of thefuture, designed theearth’s otherresources. asawayofillustratingsomeideas aboutclimate changeand low carbon technologies. It is basedlargely on work carried out during dozensofworkshops by school children andPhD research studentsas Yetthere is hope.Just at thepoint wherewehavedeveloped theability part of aeducational project(formore on this seePage94) . to destroy theplanetovernight,our rapidlydeveloping understanding of itssystems mayenableustoeffectively solveour problems. As HG Wellssaid“Civilisationisarace betweeneducation andcatastrophe”. No doubtpeoplein2050 or 2150will laugh at theideas in thefollowing pages, just as we laughatthose from 1950or1850. Yes, ourideas are likely to be wildly off themark. Butscience fictionisimportant as a It’s easy to imagine the badversion.It’smuchmore waytoenableustounderstandour ownsituation better by looking difficult butvital to imagine aPOSITIVE future. back from some future time or foreignplace.It’sabout projecting our hopesand fearsintoaneutralspace andimagininghow they will play out. We want to “makehopepossible, rather than despairconvincing”. It is about imagining afuturewhere,althoughsomebad things are happening(like sealevel rise)humans have learnedhow to adapt, So thinkofthis bookasathought experiment,based andpeoplehaveareasonablequality of lifewithout damaging the on the followingpremise: environmentfor future generations–in onedefinition,they‘meet theneedsofthe present without compromisingthe abilityoffuture generationstomeettheir needs’. Ourindustrial civilisation has been builtusing fossil fuels (coal, oil andgas). We rely on them foreverythingwedo, from drivingacar, to watchingTV, to sendinganemail,tobeing abletoeat freshfruit from This isabookofideas, notatextbook; we usestories, theother side of theworld in themiddle of winter. comics andillustrationtobring adifferentperspective. People’s lives(in wealthycountries that have made themostuse of fossil fuels)are longer, healthier,and more full of opportunity than at When an ideaissketchedonapage, it canbeexamined anddiscussed anytimeinhuman history,partlyasaresult of cheap, denseenergy much more easily than when it merely existsinpeople’sheads. powering an ever-growing global economy. Note that thesamecannot be said forbillionslivinginpoverty acrossparts of thedeveloping world. Is thepositive future outlined in thefollowing pagesplausible? Is it even apositive future?You areinvited to make up your ownmind. Critical voices have been included in thebookand we wouldstrongly Unfortunately, duetotheir side effects –causing climatechangedue encourage critical thinking.Wehopethatthe effortofresponding to releaseofgreenhousegases—wehavetostopusingfossilfuels andreacting toour ideas will be worthwhile regardlessofwhether immediately (in fact, preferably yesterday). We cannot continue to youagree. burn thefossilfuels that arelockedinthe ground, andleave theplanet habitablefor most life(let alonesuitablefor acomplex civilisation). Ourpositivevisionisbased on radical but achievablechanges. We want people to be inspired to make thosechanges.Ifweact rightnow, Even if we decide to stop usingfossilfuels,itwill takesometimeto itisstill possibletoavoid some of theworst impactsofclimate change make thechange, andweare alreadylockedintosomesevereclimate (for example thepossibility of runawayglobal warming). Ourpositive changeproblemsbecauseofthe greenhouse gaseswehaveput into societyisnot autopia. We have alreadycausedtoo much damage to theatmosphereoverthe last 200 years.Inaddition,replacements for thenatural systems that supportusfor that.But if we make positive fossil fuels tend to be lessenergydense.You generallyget lessenergy changes now, it will be farbetterthanthe alternative. out forthe amount of energy youput in (low ‘EnergyReturnon Energy Invested’ or EROI). JamesMckay -Editor

6 The status quo (our continued reliance on coal, oil and gas) implies the most extreme of all negative futures.

Reducing energy demand and using low carbon energy technologies is the key to apositive future...

Sci-fi technologies Questions to consider: Thefollowing pagesare aworkofscience fiction,informedasmuchas •What sort of future society would you be happy possiblebysomecurrent scientificideas.Someofthe technologies we to live in, given that using fossil fuels is not an illustrate don’texist (yet). Othersare wellknownand have been discussed option? formanyyears. Thereader maybesurprised to seethatsomeclichés of science fictiondonotappearhere–for example deep space travel, •What level of technology will there be in a gravity-defying skyscrapers,robotswithsuperhumanintelligence, future without access to cheap, energy dense amazingdevelopmentsingenomeengineering andcybernetics, even fossil fuels? Think about the implications for thedefeatofaging anddeath. Theseare certainly possible at some point health care, food production, communications, in thefuture-but notifwedon’t solveour energy problems. Allofthe transport, city life, culture… aboverequireadvancedtechnologies dependentonastablesocietynot immediately threatened by climatic catastrophe. •Inthe future, will it be better to live in cities (where people’scarbon emissions are lower Neomania because of economies of scale)orinself- sufficient, rural communities? Can there be a As Nicholas Naseem Talebpointsout in hisbook‘Anti-Fragile’,many combination of the two? future forecasters areobsessedwithwhathecallsneomania–the love of noveltyfor itsown sake. We forget that many things in ourlives that we •Can capitalism solve the problems that it has takefor grantedhavechanged little forthousands of years. caused, or is it possible to have an alternative system? “Today, Iwill be meeting friendsinarestaurant(they have existedfor at least 2500 years). Iwill be walking there wearing shoeshardlydifferent •How will authorities (from local to international) from those worn 5300 years agobythe mummified mandiscoveredina encourage green initiatives and enforce glacierinthe AustrianAlps. Iwill be drinking wine,aliquidthathas been “green” laws to prevent carbon emissions? in use foratleast sixmillennia…So, thankGod,[in the future]Iwill not be dressedinashiny synthetic space-style suit,consuming nutritionally •Can you have asustainable society in an optimisedpillswhile communicating with my dinnerpeers by means of environment that is rapidly changing? screens”

Importantly, in the fieldofenergyand sustainability people have been Obstacles: wrestlingwiththe same problemsfor thousandsofyears. Thus,the future in thefollowing pagesmight featurefewer spaceships than a Thereare many thorny problemsthatcould prevent us achieving Hollywood film, but hopefullythe reader will find it no lessinteresting. apositive future.Withlimitedspace,we’ve tried to consider how some of thesewereovercome. Youcan find out more in theread- On location in Yorkshire... inglistatthe endofthe book: Readersmay also be surprisedwehavedecidednot to focusonNew York,orLondon—standard settings forsci-fi books and films. Every region will respondtochangeinits ownway,sowefocus on oneregion of theUKas acasestudy.It’swhere many of thecontributorslive,and enables us to overlayafuture societyontop of ourexistingone,for addedrealism (somepictureswerebased on photos taken on location). It shouldn’t preventreadersfrom otherverydifferentregions around theworld from appreciatingthe underlyingideas.

7 Londonbasin— The Thames Estuary.

55.5 million years BC: the height of the Palaeocene –Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM)

CO2 parts per million=1000- 3000? (compared to Holocene 280, Anthropocene 500)

Global temperature 5-10°c? above 2000AD Sudden rise of 5-8°c in less than 200,000 years—but much slower than during the Anthropocene.

Mass extinctions of deep-seafloor organisms. Forests at the North Pole, animal migrations across land bridges into Europe. Few extinctions of land animals—but diversification including artiodactyls, horses and primates.

8 VOICE: “Maia? Maia! Time’s up.It’sDREAM curfew.

MAIA: Awww…

9 10 THE STORYOFTHE BLUE PEARL Adapted from the book ‘Half Gone’ by Jeremy Leggett

Once upon atime therewas aplanet on Some of them made a which life evolved intosuch astate thatthe spaceship thatcould highestanimal species could think. blastperilouslyfrom the planet and land on alarge rock in orbit around it. They wereconscious of their own past,present and future.

They stoodonthe barren and lifeless surface of the rock and lookedback at their planet.

Asmall blue pearl in athick seaof black mystery. That’s how it looked. They weremorethan routinelyglad to survive the return journey.

11 The planet had notalwaysbeenablue pearl. It started out as alifeless rock itself.Somehow,somewhereon the planet,some atoms combined to form molecules thatcombined to form compoundsthatcombined into strings thatwereable to replicate themselves –life had begun.

The main building block of life on the planet wasachemical element called carbon. Together with water, it made up the single cellsofthe planet’s earlylife forms.These cellseventuallyfound away to create energy thatwas so ingenious thatmany cellscopied it without significant improvements for several billion years.

The cellstookcarbon dioxide, combined it with water, and builtcomplex molecules called carbohydrates, giving off the gas oxygen in the process.

All thatwas needed for this to happen waslight and acertain vaguelymagical pigment in the cell (chlorophyll). The Thinkerslater called this process Carbon dioxide water photosynthesis.

Energy Having photosynthesised,the planet’s earlylife forms could then burn the Oxygen carbohydrateintheir cellstoproduce useful energy,releasing carbon dioxide and water again.

Chlorophyll

Asimple loopthatcreated energy along the way. Carbohydrates Clever or what?

Slowlyoxygen builtupinthe atmosphereatthe expense of carbon dioxide. The Blue Pearl wassome planet.Its evolving life forms made their own breathable atmosphere.

12 Billions of yearslater, once oxygen levelshad risen high enough, an explosion of life tookplace. Many-celled animals with hard bodies evolved.They lookedlikescary cockroaches and earwigs onlymuch bigger.

Everything lived in the sea, but eventuallyenough oxygen built up in the atmospherefor the first living things to appearonland.

About 350 million yearsfromthe end of the story, forests grew thick upon the land of the Blue Pearl. They grew so thick, in fact,thatdeadtreesand other plants built up seams of virtuallysolid carbon. These wereburied by sediment and hardened intoablack shiny rock.

The Thinkerswould later call this phase of the planet’s history the Carboniferous Period, and they called the rock coal.

APOCALYPSE ONE: About 100 million yearslater, disaster struck -a mass extinction. The Thinkersdisagreedabout whathad caused it – many thought arise in greenhouse gases due to avastvolcanic eruption had made the atmosphereunbreatheable. Whatever, around 90 per cent of all species disappeared.

As youcan tell from the name, there weremoreapocalypses to come.

13 The planet warmed up and a group of giant lizard-likeanimals evolved,with tails, claws, impressive teeth and unimpressive brains.

They came to dominate both the land and seaand would later capturethe imagination of countless young Thinkers.

The Blue Pearl had been home to anumber of weird natural phenomena, and now These plants lived,photosynthesised, another one happened. reproduced and died in many billions of billions.When they died, they created asubmarine rain of organic matter intothe sediments on the seafloors.The rain wasso thick all the oxygen wasused up, and the organic matter wasnot oxidised likenormal.

In some places the sediments builtupthick and fast,and their weight created enough pressureand heat to cookthe organic matter, turning it into 100 million yearsbefore something called oil. the end of the storygiant blooms of microscopic plants formed in the planet’s seas.

14 APOCALYPSE TWO: Justasbefore when biodiversity wassetting new records, disaster struck. Agiant meteorite slammed intothe planet. Once again, the atmosphereturned from nurturing to unliveable.

Around 50 per cent of the animal species bit the dustthis time, including the mega-lizards.

Much smaller, and generallyhairier animals They themselves suffered afew survived the climatic disruption and tookover the million yearslater when a suddenlydepopulated neighbourhoods. massive, sudden surge in global temperatures occurred.Tropical forests spreadintothe Arctic.

After this event,the trend wastoa decline in greenhouse gaslevelsand ageneral cooling of the globe.

Notlong beforethe end of the story, grasslandsevolved.Grasses had worked out Around 2million yearsbeforethe end of the story, anew type of photosynthesis thatwas much moreefficient at lower carbon dioxide upright-standing, less hairyspecies evolved. levels. The climate cooled further, heading intoanother ice age.

Soonthese guys developed simple grunts into complex spoken language, and discovered thatby rubbing twostickstogether youcould get fire.

The Thinkershad arrived.

15 If youthink of the storyofthe planet as a24-hour clock, they arrived one second beforemidnight.But they began to dominate the planet in away no animal had come close to doing before.

Their thinking, impressive though it was, started outshakywhen it came to their own security,and stayed thatway until the end of the story.

They drew and redrew lines on mapstoshow wheretheir countries began and ended. Mostlythey redrew the lines by waging wars of increasing scale and bloodiness.

It wasn’t all bad.Some Thinkersbegan a collective train of thought about science. Other Thinkerscreated sublime art. Prettymuch all of them liked to have agooddance.

16 The Thinkersdiscovered how to dig up Sooncame the amazing discoverythatcoal, as well as coal and burn it to produce steam being used for steamengines and factorymachines, could and drive engines thatcould power be burnt to generatesteam thatcould turn awheelto machines much better than wind or makesomething called electricity.Special coal-burning water could.They had created what power plants werebuilt. Coal wasburnt by the thousands, they called an Industrial Revolution. then the millions, then the billions of tonnes.

Another invention wasthe ‘horseless carriage’. These proliferated likewildfire, just likethe electric power plants had,and roadsspreadthe length and breadthofthe land.The horseless carriages burned oil in order to move, and soonoil wasbeing burnt in hundredsof millions, then billions of tonnes, justascoalhad been.

17 The Thinkersthen found Apattern emerged wherethe nation they could burn natural states thatweremoreadvanced in gasinstead of coal, their industrialisation burned gas venting farfewer fumes. for preference in power plants, and oil for preference in transport. The less advanced nation states would burn coal because they had to,and oil whenever they could get it.

BIGOVERSIGHT ONE: The problem was thatwhenever oil, coal and gaswere burned,carbon dioxide, which had been trapped all those millions of years ago by the ancient plants, wasreleased, trapping heat in the Earth’s atmosphere. The Thinkerscalled it a‘greenhouse gas’.

They noticed that–oops,surprise But therewas aproblem. More surprise –the average temperature than 100 yearsofburning of oil, at the surface of the planet was and twohundred yearsofcoal, going up.Almostallthe nation had created quite aset of vested states of the planet gottogether and interests among the Thinkers. negotiated atreatytocut back the use of coal, oil and natural gas.

Many organisations wereindanger of being left with whatthey called “stranded assets”, and this included notafew of the nation states, especiallythe ones where oil had accumulated in largequantities during the GreatUnderground Cook-ups.

These vested interests had created aweb of power, in effectakind of Empire-the EmpireofOil. This waslooselybound, and even capable of civil war, but it was without doubtthe mostpowerful interest group on the planet.The biggestcompanies werealloil companies or companies making horseless carriages, in which most of the oil wound up being burnt.

18 So although the leadersofthe nation states The majority of scientific Thinkersbecame gottogether regularlytotalk about the alarmed.They sawthatthe build-up of gases problem of the build up of greenhouse gases, would cause terrible effects but which held the therewas little meaningful action. danger of notbeing clear enough to persuade anyone to actuntil it wastoolate.

There were alternatives to provide energy thatdidn’t involve producing heat- trapping gases. Mostofthese alternatives used the heat of the sun, in one way or another, to makefuelsand electricity.

But the Thinkershad become, in essence, abunch of addicts hookedonakind of drug thatwas goingtoscrew them over big time, and the rest of the Blue Pearl with them. That waseven without the second Big Oversight.

19 BIGOVERSIGHT TWO: This had to do with the Blue Pearl’s Great Underground Cook-ups. The fact wasthatmostofthe oil and coal had formed during shortish periodsinthe history of the planet,and required veryspecial conditions to form.

It meant thatthe Thinkersknew thatthe oil to which they wereallowing themselves to become addicted to would, well,kind of run out one day. Hardlyanyone questioned this.They justdidn’t,you know,talk about it much.

At some point it would become clear. The Thinkerswould no longer be able to run their To makethings even lives and their industries on GROWING amounts moreuncertain, it also of CHEAP oil. All they could expectthereafter became clear thatthere were SHRINKING supplies of EXPENSIVE oil. wasstill enough oil, gasand coal in the ground to frythe planet. Therewereother, more unconventional ways to extractthe harder-to- access reserves.Eachnew method wasmoreenergy- intensive and damaging than the last.Itbegan to dawn on the Thinkersthat whatwas left had to stay in the ground.

They wereeither going to defy the status quo and voluntarilystop using their drug, or they weregoing to come up againstthe inescapable Oversights One and Two— whichever hit first.

It lookedlikethings weregoing to get decidedlynasty.

And then something remarkable happened...

20 ELMET –MYGARDEN CITY By Maia de Bordes

21 Hello from Elmet! First: sorry if this is an intrusion on your Around the turn of the millennium, once climate change was DREAM time. Although Ihope that isn’t the case Iwill bear no recognisedasaproblem, the challenge was both to adapt to it grudge if you’d rather not be on the mailing list—just let me know. and at the same time to reduce the chances of it becoming totally catastrophic. Second: for those not acquainted with my DREAM style, this is likely going to be an overly long ramble concerning afew Global society is therefore built around the principle of keeping things that I’ve put together in preparation for my Earthcorps carbon emissions to zero (or negative). We arrived at this point by presentation in September,along with Harjeet and the others. the late 21st Century,but there were many delays and setbacks on the way,and it is still unclearifour actions were sufficient to Nujod asked us to present the delegation with an overviewof prevent further climate change. Elmet society,its history and culture, and how we got here. Iwas lucky to be chosen (although I’m sure it’sbecause Kingsley,who There are many variations on the theme, and here we focus on chaired the Global AdjustmentTeamalongside Alex Mckay,ismy our home region. great-great granddad). We hadahard job learning about the Big Shift and alot of things we’d always taken for granted –such as Elmet is apolyopolis made up of many ‘hub’ towns and cities how Elmet arrived at asustainable level of technology.Iknew across the southern bioregionofthe United North (UNK). It more than the others initially because it’sthe kind of thing that stretches around the Bay of York and developed out of the old Kingsley always tells me about—the ‘good old days’ of the Big counties of West, East and North Yorkshire, covering the river Shift. I’m always pestering him for more DREAM time to explore catchments and thalwegs of the Swale, Ure, Nidd, Wharfe, Aire, the ‘Energy Ascent’. He says I’m far too excited aboutall the old Calder,Derwent and Don. tech from before the Big Shift and that it’snot healthy… hmmm... Elmet is one of the most fortunate regions of the world in terms So here we go: of climate change. We’re blessed by the followingfactors which may help explain our success: We thought the first thing to do was to break this report into sections. There are several things that are key to understanding •Amoderate maritime climate with one of the world’s Elmet society: smallest temperature anomalies, and plenty of fresh water

•Anti-Fragile regenerative society,based on sustainable •Afull catchment: from upland forest areas generating ownership of food, waste, energy and water. rainfall, to fertile river valleys, large areas of productive wetlands andacomplex coastline, underlain by diverse •Permaculture food production geology

•Zero-carbon energy •Small dense cities, historicallywith alot of green space

•Sustainable transport •Ahistorical concentration of carbon emitters (factories and power stations) that could be adapted for CarbonCapture •Advanced communications technology and global and Storage (CCS), right next to one of the most successful cooperation carbon dioxide storage reservoirs under the North Sea

•Steady-state circular economy Elmet is aregenerative anti-fragile society.Werecognised 100 years ago that we couldn’t just shrink our footprint on the earth – •Re-wilding we have to find ways to actively regenerate –build soil, restore freshwater,pollinate, compost, decompose, re-wild. We’ll try to cover each of these in turn while describing how they affect our daily lives. Tsaone and Harjeet’sproject was to go up Basically,wetry to live in away that won’t end up hurting to the Dales Forests and meet some of the Dissenters, so they’re future generations. Our teachers always remind us it’sawork included too. in progress. Although we pride ourselves on our achievements since the Big Shift there are plenty of areas where we still have a lot to do —more on this later.

Aerial view taken from aJragn Fligh, looking from the Bay of York towards Leeds and York Hub.

22 Highlands and Islands (Central Highlands, West Coast, islands)

United Northern Kingdom (Northampton up to Perth/Dundee). Capital:Edinburgh. The Scottish half of the UNK is much the stronger.Many important re-wilding initiatives were undertaken in the mid-21st Century leaving its landscape in much better shape.Ithas also lost fewer areas of arable land than the Elmetcoast.

Yorscandiavirtual state and Hanseatic Archipelago

Detail below ExclusionZone (EZ): parts of Southern England abandoned due to fallout from Channel submarine nuclear disaster

Climate

Ask anyone about the weatherinElmet, and they’ll tell you it’s ‘a bit rubbish’. This sentiment seems not to have changed for hundreds of years, however,the climate has changed alot!

Population After the decade-longblip of the ‘Big Freeze’ following the Hekla eruption, temperatures globally are more than 2°c higher than Guru Attenborough:“All environmental problems become the Holocene average reference point. In northern Europe, harder to solve, and ultimately impossible, with ever more the temperature anomaly is higherbut not as extreme as in people” PanArctica and continental interiors. Due to the delays in making the transition to alow carbon economy in the early 21st Century, Leeds, Bradford, Wakefield, Harrogate, Wetherby and York the target of 1.5°c was missed. This in itself was catastrophic make up the main urban areas of Elmet. but worryingly could be the trigger for even larger changes in future centuries due to climate tipping points. It is still unclear if Population 10 million (including 2million EZ refugees, we have passed this point, though greenhouse gas rises seem 2,200,000 east coast refugees, 1.5 million billeted Sea to be levelling off.The Dry Season in the UNK is blisteringly Kings, 3.5 millionindependent Da Hai YouMin (very hot, (with occasional monsoon conditions in July/August) and approximately –noaccurate censusexists) features unpredictable droughts. The Wetseason begins in late September through to January with high-energy thermal storms Population of UK 85 million, rising more slowly than at leading to floods and widespread damage. the turn of the century.Fears about global populationrise in the Age of Ascent turned out to be wide of the mark. Central Elmet is dominated by the Bay of York, an inland lagoon, In fact, the challengewas rapidly declining population, expanding every year as sea levels rise. Emissions of decaying especially in Europe, with the added problem of migration matter in the lagooncause electrical storms every evening and resettlement in response to climate change—with many (Catatumbo Lightning). refugees coming from Southern Europe and Middle East. The UNK, along with Yorscandia, is one of the few regions showing asignificant increase in population due to its status as arefuge for those from more badly affected areas—for the reasons detailed opposite. Dales Forest Wolds (Swale, Nidd, Forest Urban area Wharfe, Aire, Calder catchments) York Hub Forest area ELMET

Leeds Marine reserve Hub

Bay of Sea Kings York Yorscandia League ports

Dales Wolds Forest Forest

23 I’m on my way from the tech monastery on the Chevin to Knaresborough in time for lights off.Ineed to get back early as we’ve had word that Mitchell is coming home! He’sbeen away in the UNOColonial Navy on his Merantau for three years and we’re preparingabig party for him.

Harvest festivals will be taking place shortly –there is frantic work going on to get the crops in before the storm season starts. It’salso the 100th Anniversary of the Thousand Flowers.

I’m so glad it’sgetting towards the end of the summer.Imean it’s always unbearable but this one just seemed so much worse. It’s starting to ease up. Ithink… Ihope! It’sbeen too hot to even cycle most days. We had more than twenty Heat Calls.

Despite the weather,Elmet is amuch happier place than it used to be during the days of the Sea King raids and the Big Freeze. Everyone accepts each other for who they are, and nobody is afraid to show their true selves. There is now abroadly shared sense that quality of life is more important than the high growth rates that came from working long hours and buying yet more gizmos to save time. Society has definitely changed for the better.

Knaresborough in the Age of Energy Ascent

24 The core of KnaresboroughHub is an ancient market town. It’sone of the chain of hub towns within the wider Elmet Garden City circlingthe Bay of York, including Ilkley,Wetherby, Harrogate, Easingwold—all connected by the Light Rail system.

Knaresborough sits on the Nidd thalweg and is governed from Nidd council headquarters at the DREAM hub.

It’smarket day.Knaresborough has held aweekly market in this place every Wednesday since 1310. The Tudor tea rooms, formerly Ye Olde Chymist’sshop, dates to 1720.

Things have changed in many respects since the 14th Century. No longer do livestock wanderthe streets, fouling them with manure as they did right up until the early 20th Century; nor are the streets choked with cars as they were around the turn of the millennium. However there is asurprising amount of continuity: ordinary life goes on; residents are well known for their Yorkshire humour and eccentricities including the annual Bed Race Festival.

The challenges we have include rising population due to the Sea Kings and refugees from the Saharopean area; loss of arable land due to the formation of the Bay; high temperatures putting pressure on crops; invasive species and loss of biodiversity.

Abit aboutme: I’m 14. I’m still at our local Permaculture college, although obviously I’m seconded to the Chevin Tech Hub at the moment. My family is descended from French refugees from Paris, and of course the famous Kingsley Mason is my great- great granddad. There are some pictures of my family on Page 29. My dog Cu really belongs to Mitchell.

I’m training to be an engineer and am also in the Earthcorps service. This means getting hands on with alot of our engineering kit, but also studying biodiversity,ecological economics, climate science and earth systems science. DREAM gives me aheadache. We’re only supposed to do one hour per day on it, but because of the delegation, Ihave to put in alot more than that—more hours than is normally recommended (and way over credit).

25 My LILAC It’samazing to think that in the early 21st Century something called ‘Fuel Poverty’ was aproblem. This was because the houses were very inefficient and lost alot of heat, so Here you can see my home community—it people were spending alot of money keeping warm in the cold winters they had then. was one of the first stand-alone LILACS—a ‘Low Impact Living Affordable Community’, Obviously,the problem now is cooling, ventilation and refridgeration! Some of the before the idea became standard for ur- houses are raised above ground level to allow acooling breeze underneath. Most ban design.The key idea is to exist as a south-facing aspects are shaded, with heavy shutters. Some of the more techno- self-sufficient, sustainable housing co-op- logically advanced houses have old-style Mechanical Heat Recovery and Ventilation erative, made up of zero-carbon dwellings Systems. Others have Zone 5green roofs, and the most modern houses are Plant- optimised for storm and flooding resilience, ers—i.e. constructed from bio-materials and calcium hypercarbonate sourced from energy production, waste treatment and carbon scrubbers, maximised for plant growth and ediblebiodiversity (you can even water capture. eat some parts of the houses as they grow!) Houses are designed to support hun- dreds of species of animals and plants within andaround the building fabric. Homes with net-zero energy requirements became common by the 2040s, however, many originally built in the mid 20th Cen- Biopylons—artificial photosynthesis tury were crumbling by the mid 21st. You can see they are amixture of old and new, efficient and inefficient, as aresult of piece- meal replacement during the Big Shift. Some utopians say we ought to start again from scratch—that the best way to reduce emissions would be to completely redesign our settlements. Others say that we should apply the Permaculture principles of small and slow changes. Permaculture college

Grain bins: keeping grain dry is a key problem in the hot wet weath- er.Most grain and preserves are stored underground in caverns

Workshop

Communal eating area

Aquaculture

Seedbank Waste:

All toilet waste is passed through reed beds to be broken down naturally .Wehave adevice called an ElectroWaste which uses processes like microwave plasma gasification and hydrothermal Insect farm carbonisation to turn everything into electricity using afuel cell. All you have left at the end are these little black pellets which are really good for the garden –the flowers love it!

26 Energy: Work:

Most of our energy is produced on site with All chores are divided evenly between the co-op roof slates solarised for electricity generation, with each member committing to 6hours each solar shaders and wind stalks bought and week. We’re getting ready for Wetseason planting maintained by everyone in the cooperative. We in November.There are many seasonal workers run an unusually large algal biorefinery utilised staying with us at the moment, and lots to do! by the wider community—we sell its fuels and Most people do several jobs: as well as working products to other LILACS via the fractal grid. the land with their communities, they may special- ise in certain areas. The point is not that this is more efficient than 20th C(it’snot) but that this is more flexible in an unstable environment. More people know abit about more things. In addition to each house’sallotment and food production spaces, there is alarge allotment field and Energy Gardens just out of the picture, these belong to two or three LILACS together.

Algal biorefinery

Stilt house

Bus stop

Wood stack—representing Energy Storage. Small, easily used, diverse, dispersed, low value, unlike more expensive storage batteries Boundary Access road—no Solar clothes dryer vehicles allowed on the main community site Composting area

Land is now held in trust by amosaic of co-operatives. The Chatterton Act in the late 2080s made private land own- Fruit Trees and Hedges ership athing of the past and residential property prices are pegged to people’sability to pay.Welearned the lesson that treating houses as property destroys com- munities, whereas treating them as homes preserves them. Most citizens rent their flat, town house or ‘flexi- Bee hives: Bees are so important in so pod’, invented in 2025 by aLeeds architecture graduate many ways in nature; it’ssuch ashame to respond to the need for households to expand and that we have to have whole armies of contract without moving house. My friend Carlotta’spar- people working to stabilise their popu- ents, now in their 60s, live in one of them. When friends lation and re-introduce them to areas or relatives come to stay,they can rent an adjacent pod where they went extinct. All areas of the instead of having aguest room lying empty most of the LILAC are managed to promote maxi- time. Neighbours who live in atown house often have mum biodiversity. ‘sofa surfers’ staying with them.

27 Dinner in the de Bordes household: From left to right, Maia, Talbot, Tiernan, Myrtille, Kingsley Mason

It’sKingsley’sleaving party.He’smade up his mind to travel north to PanArctica! At his age (he’s113 next week)! Dinnerconsists of goneeje mealworm rice and mitten crabs from the aquaponics centre, washed down with some vintage Dundee wine. There are alot of Sea King farm workers here to help with harvest—a lot of mouths to feed.

CO-OP LIFE:

Within each LILAC, we live on acooperative basis. Individual Business meetings involve agood deal of consensus members can take on ‘roles’. These include things like Energy decision-making [with the aid of hand signals] and are often Officer,Treasurer,Maintenance Officer,and Rent Officer. in acommunal area such as kitchen or living room. Once inducted into these roles, you are expected to follow the job description, fulfilduties, create and deliverreports on We recognise there is aworld of difference between ‘informing progress or issues at the monthly business meeting. and consulting’ and ‘empowering and engagement’. Decisions don’t need to be perfect—just good enough. They’re very None of this is officially mandatory,but it wouldn’t make much much based on consensus. sense to join ahousing co-op like ours if you didn’t want to work. While the existence of these roles allows individual Lots of skill-sharing and hands-on learning goes on as we members to feel integrated, useful and apart of the co-op, try as much as possible to keep aDIY approach. In old 20th they also endow them with useful skills applicable to other Century housing there are many issues surrounding any kind areas of life, and encourage aculture of knowledge -and of refurbishment(at the moment, this is particularly centred skill-sharing. around insulation work) and any building work must attend to specificneeds of old houses. It’saninteresting version We have twomeetings amonth: business and feelings. of working with your environment –aswell as this, we try Business is where our officers report on the work they’ve to ensure our materials and methods are as eco-friendlyas been carrying out; finances (particularly large outgoings); possible.Reusing and ‘upcycling’ are essential. proposals for things to do in the upcoming month; etc. Asmall detail you might find interesting: we recently bought a Feelings is where we check up on each other,toknow what is ‘log maker’, which is basically abioplas filter tube which helps going on in the individual members’ lives, outside of the co-op create fuel for our stoves from old paper,leaves, teabags, and also how life in the co-op is affecting them. Both follow and such. This is asimple device which goes asmall way to particular structures to help ensure productive meetings. help usefully eliminate waste.

Lea Salih someone else’spastoral group. On the she was young and how much the world roof of the pod we have acommunal has changed. Unfortunately my great “I’m 8years old. I’m Maia’scousin. My garden, asolar thermal system and granddad passed away last year,he family are 3rd generation originally from chicken coop. All of the children help had Bieberia.” Kurdistan. My granddad on my mum’s out with the garden every Saturday, side came with the Sea Kings in the this is my favourite day of the week as I 90s. Ilive with our extended family in get to see the chickens and learn about abig pod in the Stockwell LILAC. (An how to grow food. Igotoschool every old-style nuclear family is too small for Monday to Thursday.Ilearn about so many aspects of ecological living— many things, about renewable energy you need 10-15 members). Ihave no and about how we need to take care siblings but there are other children of the planet better and ourselves. My in the pod that Ilove to hang out and favourite food is mussels in every form, play with, for example my best friend my granddad has amussel farm on the Mohammad (his family were from Sirte Bay and Ilove visiting him because he in what used to be acountry called makes the best mussel soup. My great Libya in North Africa). Each person grandmother lives in the same house, is responsiblefor 8peopleinpastoral she’s94years old and often tells me group —they themselves belong to stories of how it was growing up when 28 Myrtille for mechanical jobs otherwise, like milling. The methane produced “I’m aphysical training instructor in the paddy fields is harnessed for the Otley militia—this is my and stored for use underground service work, with my Hub earning- in big salt caverns. Iteach the work focused on teaching about next generation of engineers energy.Myspecialitiesare wind how to determine what each and water –mechanical conversion new LILAC needs in terms of to electricity includingassessment energy resources, and how to of the available resources –I’m decide on the best combinations told that the designs we have now of wind-stalks, waterwheels and are similar to those from 300 years paddy-powertobeself-sufficient ago, but few written records of throughout the year.Luckily with those times remain outside of the our warmer climate since the Big Tech Hub. I’m sure Maia has been Freeze, heating isn’t so important, researching them... but refridgeration and ventilation are critical.” Anyway,both the water and wind generators are used all over the country now,with water filling in the gap for electricity when the wind isn’t blowing, but being used

This is my tything—my extended family (5-10 households); we all look after each other and under UNOColonial authority if one person in the tything breaks the law,weare all held responsible. The tythings also form the basic unit of our Virtual Power Plants in the Fractal Energy Grid, and provide the pool from which juries are chosen for voting on important issues—both locally and internationally via DREAM. We recognised that the best adaption to climate change is to build an Anti-Fragile community where everyone looks after each other. Everyone receives six weeks’ police training at age 21and are then expected to serve the community,orleave and go on their ’Merantau’ (military service or ‘Walkabout’)

Tiernan problem since the switch from the Big Freeze. Some years we have “I’m aclimate scientist working for had barely any rain at all –2146 was an environmental consultancy.My the worst. There was ahuge civil main job is to track storms over engineeringproject to pipe water the North Atlantic and try to predict from Scotland which worked really when and where they will hit the well at first, but now it has reached UK and what impact they will have. its capacity and it struggles to cope We have some highly advanced with the unpredictability of rainfall. technology to do this; including In the ’46 drought, alot of people sophisticated DREAM models and in Elmet lived off water carried in hundreds of pup drones. My job is by Cloud Shepherds for months. Of vital these days as some years we course, we’re still much better off have been pummelled by enormous than other areas of the world such storms almost continuously for as the Saharopean desert (Spain, months on end, with intense Southern France, North Africa). flooding across much of the UNK. Clean water is such aprecious It seems odd but in some regions resource now,Ican’t believe they we’ve also had awater shortage used to flush toilets with it!”

29 30 31 32 33 The Permaculture Biointensive Landscape

Permaculture Principle 7: ‘Design from Pattern to Details’. We recognise that just as humans are apart of nature, cities are apart of the landscape and surrounding ecosystem. The whole system needs to be consideredwith the human economy as asub-set of the surrounding bioregion. Permaculture was developed by Mollison and Holmgren in the late 20th Century but didn’t become mainstream until the time of the Thousand Flowers movement. Some regard Holmgren’s book ‘Principles’ as the single most important book of the Age of Energy Descent, on apar with Wem Sheekes’ ‘Notes on What’sWhat’. Permaculture is a‘way of seeing’ -itisabout stability and “anti-fragility”- asystem that grows stronger when under strain, about deepening soils and cleaner water,thriving communities in self- Any slope reliant regions, biodiverse agriculture and social justice, over 18° is polyculture rather than monoculture. forested— protecting against erosion The key points: and flooding •Workwith nature rather than against it. •The problem is the solution. •Make the least change for the greatest possible effect. Biomass Cycle •The yield of asystem is theoretically unlimited (or only limited by the imagination and information of the Fringes of Yorkshire Dales— designer). upland plantation mosaics; •Everything gardens (or modifies its environment) long rotation mixed forests, hazel coppices, miscanthus, When we design to meet our needs, we must do so in a bamboo and marabu feed way that supports the bioregion as awhole.Sowecreate biorefineries around Bay of York, carbon is captured and wildlife corridors and engage in landscape-level rewilding. piped underground in North Sea This is all enabled by the Global Earth Observation reservoirs. System set up in the mid-21st Century which via holistic DREAM models lets us instantly assess the ecological consequences of any action.

About 20% of population is engaged in food production. A farmer with 3-50 acres is typical.

Water management requires cooperation between those connected by rivers from source to sea (the ‘Thalweg’) and also between river valleys—for comparison and learning. Drainage systems are interconnected and interdependent.

Coastal Mangroves—storm defence, protected fish breeding grounds Blacktoft National Park and Marine Reserve (no fishing allowed)

Bay of York Energy Zone— Bulrush fields, Solar Trees, CCS pipeline algal bioenergy Da Hai YouMin (Sea Kings) chikshuj (hydropolis)— aquaculture, algal bioenergy

Port of Beverley

Humber boom (tidal energy)

34 Zone 5—Self-willed land, with re-wilding programmes connecting across the whole landscape.Also includes rooftops, hedges and underground spaces, the space Catchment between low and high water and coastal cliffs. boundary

Catchment—Headwaters pure but infertile, estuaries fertile but accumulate toxins

Zone 4—managed forest (freeholder woods), wood pasture, biomass The Thalweg (everything plantations, coppicing, pollarding, is connected): Decisions Road Verge Gardens made at source affect all downstream. Riparian corridors (wide strips of trees), beaver dams, swales and johads help protect against flooding and capture nutrients, act as wildlife corridors.

Zone 3—the wider micro-city or ‘Hub’, pastures, plantations, dams (swales, johads), large livestock

Zone 2—LILAC communities: orchards, allotments, urban farms, Energy Gardens

Following Guru Lovelock, we aim to set aside 1/3 of land as natural woodland (forest mosaics and wildlife corridors), half of this as ‘tabu’ Sites of Special ScientificInterest where only the children who data collect are allowed permits; and 2/3 high-density urban micro-villages or ‘Hubs’. 15% of the landscape should be under water—although management is Zone 1—the ‘Pod’ or needed to reduce breeding opportunities for the mosquitoesthat carry homestead and irrigated Bieberia. Some areas are set aside for large-scale SMART-intensive garden farming, but most of our needs come from the urban Edible Landscape –permaculture market gardens.

35 An Edible Urban Landscape: The Forest Gardens of Elmet

Permaculture Principle 3: ‘Obtain aYield’: food is not optional! One The Five Steps of our biggest challenges during the Big Shift was to provide food at the same time as reducing greenhouse gas emissions to zero. During the Big Shift, there were 5main changes in our approach to food driven by the Thousand Elmet food production is based on permaculture,using every Flowers Permaculture movement: square inch and every microclimate available in our urban spaces—walls, roofs, shaders, balconies, road verges—visitors Freeze ecological footprint—deforestation often remark how untidy and ramshackle our communities appear stopped; nitrogen emissionsreduced by athird to be! Productionisintensive and above all local. Importantly,about by planting winter cover crops 20% of population is engaged in food production—aboutthe same as in 1900, far more than during the peak of the Ascent. Obtain ayield—high technology precision growing e.g. smart irrigation Diet is seasonal and rationing is sometimes imposed—as in the ‘46 drought. It’sharvest time now,soplenty to go around. However,we Use renewable resources more efficiently—for often have problems duringthe ‘Hungry Gap’ in late Spring. example, making use of invasive species

We follow amainly plant-based diet with animal protein supplied Shift diets to less meat and dairy by our insect farms—(see facing page). We try to strategically grow the highest calorie, most nutritious foods—other foods are a Produce no waste—unbelievably at the luxury.For this reason it’sillegal to grow coffee or tea outside the peak of the Energy Ascent, people were Yorscandia Economic Zone areas; caffeine smuggling is endemic wasting nearly half of all food produced! though. Our food production also utilises waste (such as humanure) for nutrients Due to rapidly changing conditions since the Hekla eruption and Big Freeze in the 90s, we assist in the migration of certain fruit and vegetable crops, for example vineyards have moved to Scotland.

Restoration of topsoil is our top priority,following Guru Holmgren’s Guru Fukuoka’s4principles: maxim “Rebuilding soil is the most important contribution we can make to the survival of humanity”. In fact some of our soil is No ploughing or turning of the soil. The earth exported to the new regions in PanArctica that lack it. cultivates itself naturally

No chemical fertiliser or prepared compost— these drain the soil of essential nutrients

7. Vertical No weeding by tillage or herbicides— weeds garden— are kept under control rather than eliminated, as climbing berries, they are an essential part of building soil fertility nasturtiums, and balancing the biological community.We runner beans, also eat quite afew. vines No dependence on chemicals—weak plants develop as aresult of ploughingand fertilising, increasing vulnerability to disease and invasive species (as was seen in the Great Famine)

Family trees –several com- patible varieties on asingle rootstock

36 In the Age of Energy Ascent there was a global shift towards eating animal protein across the world, resulting in ahuge increase in greenhouse gas emissions and food production intensity.During the Big Shift there was an equally rapid move back again (for richer societies) -this time with protein suppliedbyinvertebrates. Seven Stories of aForest Many people in Elmet eat no meat at all, Garden: others believe in utilising animal protein as 1. Canopy –tall energy part of abalanced use of the surrounding coppice and pollarded fruit trees bioregion.

It seems every year there are new pest species, and new diseases(especially of crops). Until the Big Shift, people regarded pests as aproblem. However,according to Guru Holmgren, we know that pests and invasive species represent surplus abundance—they can be useful. They are often the result of lack of management of a previously managed environment.

Typically within an Insect Farm it takes 2kg of meal to produce 1kg of insect protein, whereas it takes 25kg of feed (or more) to produce 1kg of beef. Insects are agreat source of micronutrients e.g. iron and zinc

Insect farm and Aquaponics system: uses only 2% of the water of a 2. Low tree layer— conventional irrigated farm. fruit and nuts on dwarfing rootstocks Rearing Tank—raising and feeding fish and bamboo Biofilter—nitrification bacteria growand convert ammonia into nitrates

Hydroponics subsystem—plants grown by absorbing excess nutrients

3. Shrub layer e.g. currants, gooseberry

4. Herbaceous layer—herbs and perennial veg

6. Rhizosphere—shade 5. Ground cover— tolerant and winter root creeping plants plants

Soil—managed as acarbon sink—vital for carbon storage Above: Dryads preside over aforest garden on the site of the pioneering Sustainable Gar- den on the campus of the University of Leeds

37 The TreesofElmet —Our Life Support System

Here’smyHome Oak… or you could call it asolar energy generator with advanced carbon and energy storage facilities, along with atmospheric scrubbing, nitrogen fixing and Naming individual trees and treating oxygen generation. Asingle them as citizens of our community was oak can support 300 other life one way to prevent careless abuse. So forms, many thousands more are the Home Tree Movement began. Each sustained by the wood-wide web. tree is named after achild. Each person has the following:

ABirth Tree

AHome Tree (an old, significant tree growingwithin the community) that they share with everyone else in theirLILAC

During the Big Shift, there was a ALandbase Tree (a significant tree sea-change in our understanding far away,either in someone else’s and appreciation of trees. People community,orinaChildren’sForest) realised that atree planted in the 2020s would longoutlast fossil As afurther protection, the forests also fuels—and would act as carbon benefitfrom their famous guardians, the storage for centuries. Billions Dryads. were then planted across the globe, forming the basis of our bioeconomy.

38 ENERGY TECHNOLOGY IN THE AGE OF ENERGY DESCENT

Permaculture Principle 5: ‘Use and value renewable resources’. For along time during the ‘Wobble’ energy curfews, power cuts, The key to our survival when faced with climate change was ‘brown-outs’, and rationing of some goods (and in some cases the shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy to reduce carbon over-supply) were anormal state of affairs in Elmet. Eventually emissions to zero (or negative). the Thousand Flowers movement began, using LILACS as individual fractal micro-grids. Each LILAC microgrid can optimise The Big Shift in the 2020s to 2040s could also be called the with neighbours and build energy security from the bottom ‘Second Industrial Revolution’,orthe ‘Second Energy Revolution’. up. Our co-operative power plant is plugged into DREAM and Right up until the early 21st Century mid-Victorian tech was being managed to balance supply and demand across the Saharopean used—burningfossil fuels in big power stations to generate Union. steam to turn aturbine. The Big Shift used radicallyalternative technologies. We have to throw everything at the problem—no Within apermaculture society,energy is just one component one technology is sufficient on its own. The Big Shift was enabled of anexus— the FOOD/WATER/ENERGY nexus. For example by the introduction of the Carbon Tax—straight away this meant obtaining food requires both energy and water.Nosingle resource that the old fossil fuels couldn’tcompete with low carbon energy can be considered on its own. technologies because of the environmental costs. Renewable energy use has led to amore peaceful planet. If you don’t rely on oil, for example, then you don’t need to go to war None of the alternative technologies can fully replace the cheap, over it. dense fossil fuels of the Age of Energy Ascent and in many cases they are more resource intensive, but as Guru Holmgren shows, In addition, with less energy available,there is more work that limited and erratic technologygives us valuable feedback telling needs to be done by human or animal power—a lot more jobs. us when we are putting too much strain on our surrounding Note—more labour doesn’t always mean more jobs: slavery environment. returned in some areas of the world in the mid-21st Century— especially in the wilder micro-states of the North Sea and Baltic.

The Saharopean Energy Union The North African and European fractal super grid extends from the Sahara desert north to Iceland and PanArctica, ensuring that renewable low carbon energy can be shared among many nations. For example, when wind speeds are low on the giant Dogger Arrays in the North Sea, extra energy from the Saharan solar farms can be carried north to compensate. No one area can survive on its own, it is asystem built on collaboration and unity.

Each fractal LILAC unit has an energy officer who looks after energy infrastructures and sits on the board of the next fractal level up, the ELMET Fractal Unit. The ELMET unit is responsible for commissioning and co-producing the larger CCS infrastructures, floating wind platforms, Biopylons and other gen-tech suited to our bioregion. They then share this with higherand lower fractal levels to achieve balance and secure, if not always abundant, supply.

39 CO taken in BIOENERGY more successful, reducing pressure on food and other systems. 2 No aspect of energy impacts on publiclife more than Bioenergy. by plants Bioenergy is unique as arenewable energy source Most of the population are engaged at one time or another because it not only provides power,but also heat, in biomass-processing and life cycle. Elmet energy officers fuels, and products that replaced the petroleum-based learned early on to manage biomass carefully—dried and stored products of the Age of Energy Ascent. It is also unique in biomass can self-combust! that it is based on living systems—therefore, depending on how it is managed you may get wildly different results in terms There are tensions within different models of bioenergy— of energy yield, greenhouse gas emissions and air quality.1st for example large biorefineries and power stations are very generation biofuels gained abad name as they were food crops efficient with stringent environmental controls. Small residential and therefore put pressure on food resources. 2nd generation generation (which involvesmost LILACS) can result in poor air biofuels were dedicated energy crops like miscanthus grass quality in some areas. There are many challenges regarding which still took up space. 3rd generation biofuels greenhouse gas balancesand other environmental impacts. are algal and bacterial based and are much

Biorefinery including anaerobic digestion

Above: Energy gardens and road gardens: trees Nutrient and shrubsgrown for recovery energy on field bunds (nitrogen and Biochar and road verges, phosphorus) (carbon storage thus avoiding and soil competition for improvement) space with food crops.

Hydrogen gas (energy storage)

Products CO2 buried (timber,bioplas, underground construction biocomposites) Food In the early 2020’sthere was aheadlong (oils, rush to developcarbon capture technologies. sugars) Critically,Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) can actually remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and this is akey reason for our success (so far) in Transport fuels avoiding totally catastrophic climate change. (biogas for heavy Combined heat By 2050, the network of UK CCS pipelines goods vehicles, and power, and geo-storage had almost completely biodiesel) lighting and decarbonised the UK energy system. cooling Using now aging infrastructure comes with real drawbacks in terms of maintenance and storage security,but is still acritical contributor of negative carbon electricity to the Saharopean energyunion.

40 ENERGY FROM WASTE:

Energy can be recovered from waste agricultural residues, but our most important source is mining old landfill sites and generating biogas (methane). In keeping with the permaculture principles of our bioeconomy there is huge emphasis on recycling of nutrients.

As well as wastes, invasive species like marabu are utilised. It’sinteresting that the Dryads themselves are created from Japanese Knotweed-derived biocomponents.

Crop wastes are converted into biochar,used for carbon sequestration with the pyrolysis heat used for electricity generation and household warmth. Over time we sequestered megatons of carbon in this way.Biochar is great for holding solid nutrients and water,contributing to crop fertility in nutrient leached areas and holding onto water in soils.

We usebiochar as acarbon based biofilm reactor which soaks up nutrients and grows algae on asolar waterfall. Most people think the solar waterfallsare beautiful, but Ithink they look like mouldycurtains!

As we regenerated soil life we were able to better use that life to incorporate soil-based microbial fuel cells into our wastewater treatment and bio-energy production. Bio- based supercapacitors are used for round the clock algal cultivation, they reduce parasitic energy loss. In this way we made our soil regeneration work for us over and over again. Soil regeneration produces more and better food, which is recycled through wastewater treatment and diverted into algal production.

BIOPYLONS or ‘JACKS’ *

Above: The unmistakeable Biopylons rise above Elmet like giant green trees.

Nature has evolved an extremely efficient means of generating energy—photosynthesis. We mimic nature by creating artificial photosynthetic structures—these were developed and widely deployed by the 2070s. Of course, the ‘leaves’ which capture energy from the sun only do this duringthe day.Ameans of energy storage for times when the sun is not available was found—a ‘pumped storage’ system. During the day the power generated by the ‘leaves’ pumps water high up into the top of the structure. During the night and at times of high demand, valves open allowing water to pour down the interior of the tree into an underground reservoir.The descending water drives turbines that generate the electricity.

In some cases this process uses more energy than it consumes, but by combining with other energy sources, it reduces the need for extra provision at times of high demand. In parallel, Hedgefox bio-batteries utilise synthetic enzymes to store energy as sugars. The batteries form huge power blocks in the trunks of the trees. New research is finding ever more ingenious ways to reduce the size of the batteries and increase their efficiency.

*possibly from ‘Jack and the Giant Beanstalk’

41 SOLAR

By the mid 21st Century solar power was the largest source of electricity via the giant Saharopean arrays. Solar desalination plants like the Sunflowers are vital for producingfresh water during the Dry Season when most of the Elmet rivers run almost dry.Solar energy is also used in combination with other technologies e.g. to torrefy biomass for use in slurry engines and to scrub carbon dioxide from the air within the Solar Trees.

WIND

The most common large scale wind technologies are the Bulrush fields in the Bay of York. The Humber Ar- ray was severely compromised during the Sea King disorders at the turn of the century,but now provides alarge fraction of Elmet’senergy,and is twinned with the Yorscandian North Sea and Dogger Bank Arrays stretching across to Denmark.

HYDROPOWER/MARINE

The Humber Barrage Pelamis is the most large-scale manifestation of the use of water power for energy. Throughout the permaculture landscape, water is used through waterwheels, mills, dams, Pumped Storage stations (for example within the biopylons), and all use is managed NUCLEAR with flood defence in mind.

Small modular reactors now provide reliable baseload energy for Elmet communities. Though many campaigners for low carbon energy during the Big Shift were opposed to nuclear,the fact remained that whereas nuclear waste is alocal problem, climate change is global. Eventually smart modular reactors with aclosed cycle (which meant that waste never came out of the reactor) were established. Following permaculture principles (the problem is the solution) they were even able to use the waste from the old 20th Century reactors and were thus part of the clean-up operation. Even more amazingly, after Manson NDela’ssuccessful campaign to rid the world of nuclearweapons, the leftover warheads were used as afuel. However,new installations had to be built to treat the waste first, which in some cases was cripplingly expensive. Clearing up nuclear waste from early,primitive nuclearsites will be along-term job lastinghundreds of years.

42 Reducing Energy Demand—the Easier Option

In order to get to zero carbon emissions, new technologies were not enough. It required amassive reduction in energy demand—a change in the whole economy (see pages 64-69) and achange to how energy is managed. But importantly,itdidn’tneed any complicated and expensive new tech—just new ideas.

Energy Storage

The “Holy Grail” of successful energy systems. Easily accessible energy storage =water,fertile soil, The Anti-Fragile Fractal Grid seed, good timber forests, peat land. In the Energy Ascent storage of fossil fuel energy was easy (huge We run different autonomous piles of coal and billions of barrels of oil). Storage for but interconnected systems renewable energy systems was much more difficult. side by side: Community It wasn’t until the Big Shift that viable ‘Generation- energy (Thousand Flowers), Integrated Energy Storage’ methods were developed, Regional energy (e.g. Dogger for example molten salts, heat-exchangesystems, Arrays), Transnational liquid airand Hedgefox bio-batteries. Energy—the Saharopean Energy Union

Virtual Power Plants

Thousand Flowers communities time their energy demands and trading based on energy forecasts via DREAM and globanking. This is balanced by feeding in their own energy at the right time to avoid mismatches of supply across the fractal grid. One of the most important jobs of the LILAC energy officer is to communicate the ELMET Energy Forecast each day.Wemaximise power use during the sunny or windy spells so the better we are at responding to useful conditions the more efficient we can be with our energy resource.

Dealing with those other emissions...

There are two areas where it is impossible to reduce greenhouse emissions to zero: agriculture and heavy industry,for example metallurgy and cement manufacture. Energy service companies

Even with our permaculture food production methods and shift to Communitiesdon’t need a vegetarianism, agriculture is still an emitter of greenhouse gases— particular fuel, they just need not just carbon dioxide but also methane and nitrogen oxides. heating, cooling, light and power However,asour permaculture approach beds in, we are seeing to do work. Energy service the soil in some areas return to being acarbon sink. It has taken companiesmanage this through years of careful and patient recycling of nutrients, biochar addition, complex DREAM networks utilising grazing management and compost production to get to this point. every available source of energy within the Fractal grid. We have mostly moved away from construction methods requiring concrete and steel, through use of bio-materials and hypercarbonate composites. However,wehave always struggled to reduce the emissions in these areas, and we’re not there yet.

Large carbon emitters are linked to the White Rose Carbon Capture and Storage pipeline, taking carbon dioxide out for burial in North Sea reservoirs. This is the best we can do at the moment.

43 Transport—Getting around Elmet

York Road, East Leeds, in the Age of Energy Ascent (inset) and today.Where previouslycities were designed around cars, the development of low carbon means of travel has led to areturn to walking, cycling and use of public transport, and agreat improvement to the urban environment.

AHistory of Transport through the Age of Ascent and Descent— York Hub Museum, Elmet 18th Century Transport Water was the most efficient way of getting around—expansion of overseas trade routes and canal networks. Much-needed improvements to roads through unpopular tolls. First flight—hot air balloons

First rail vehicles—used for hauling coal

Early trains and the first railways. First bicycles—’Dandybikes’ (often called ‘Boneshakers’) Early 19th Century Transport

44 Late 19th Century Transport Massive development of rail network—a Steamships—no revolution in transport longer reliant on and decisive in wars wind

First motorcars (“horseless carriages”)—run on peanut oil, coal dust and liquid air before development of gasoline and diesel

First bicycles with rubber tyres—pave the way for motor vehicles Horses still provide much of the by requiring smooth power for urban transport—and road surfaces alot of manure! Increasing public awareness of hygiene problems

45 Early 20th Century First aeroplanes and rapid development of transport Model TFord— due to access to cheap revolutionisespersonal fossil fuels, innovations transport—more flexible through World Wars than other means

Trams successfully replace horse transport at first, then abandoned in favour of cars in many urban areas as city suburbs grow and commuting times lengthen

Late 20th Century— early 21st Century

Growth of motorways and redesign of urban areas based around cars

“Weare nourishing at immense Commercial aviation cost amonster of great potential and passenger jets. destructiveness and yet we love Peak of aviation him dearly” - Buchanan 1963 around 2020

Fossil fuels allow vehicles to become bigger,faster ,more energy-intensive, but often not much more efficient

Space travel—International Space Station; Lunar and Martian landings

46 Mid 21st Century—the Big Shift Rapid transition to low carbon transport. Development of electric, hybrid and automated vehicles plugged into smart grids. Utilisation of vehicles as energy storage, car pooling, cycle routes, solar roads Decline of aviation as low carbon fuel proves impossi- ble to achieve—transition to airships and aerozips

The Wobble causes problems for smart integration. Huge reduction in car use. Major shift back to walking, cycling, change in design of urban areas— more emphasis on Carbon tax on aviationand shipping—development of pedestrianisation low carbon shipping—Kitejammers

Early 22nd Century

International travel via solar airships (Cloud Shepherds), aerozips and hydropols

Development of liquid air rail and opening of branch lines and light rail services by UNOColonial authorities

Conversion of much space on motorways to Most travel within urban areas by foot or by tram. road gardens

Brotherhood of the Last Mile—cyclecouriers move Bio-bicycles (Zixingches) -made of bamboo and most goods within cities through freight bike integra- knotweed composites—naturally shock-absorbing tion with light rail and redeveloped canal networks and growing 47 TRANSPORT:

When trafficwas re-routed and reduced, it opened up many Where have all the cars gone? opportunities for redevelopment as well as vastly improving quality of life in urban areas. Whereas ease of access by car Since recognising in about 2020 that cheap oil was athing of used to be amajor selling point for any business building,the the past and that carbon taxes could minimise the use of the much more tranquil feel of the city centres helped to stave off remaining fossil fuels, lives were surprisingly rapidly reorganised relocationstobusiness parks and indeed, many firms moved so that travel for work, education, shopping and leisure was back. minimised. Even the most efficient electric and fuel cell cars required huge resources (materials like aluminium, hydrocarbons It’sodd to hear about how some folk who used to live in villages and carbon composites) for the bodyshell, tyres, interiors and up in the Dales but had jobs in Leeds had to spend hours going batteries. Now we mine the graveyards of 20th Century cars for to and fro by car.Places in Elmet are much more self-contained useful resources. than they used to be. Travel in urban areas used to be dominated by the badly-named For local and regional travel, trains are still useful. The whole rail ‘rush hour’, but now many more people work part-time or flexi- system, the most aged parts of which are now more than 300 time, work from home or commute by bike, on foot or by electric years old, has been upgraded to take the latest rolling stock, all vehicles. All this means that there is no congestion and very little powered by liquid air and high-efficiency solar skins. An extensive noise or pollution. There are still plenty of delays though—Elmet tram system, integrated with heavy rail, makes for auseful trams are notorious! network connecting the city centre with outlying neighbourhoods.

The Brotherhood of the Last Mile

Left: Japhet McCleery

“Bike couriering is atough job. Iride aNidd 2130 Multiplier traction bike –itcan clear 3tons. Istore it out at Thistle Hill depot near the Great North Road as it’stoo heavy for the town’sroad gardens. The typical working week is 3and ahalf days but varies depending on season. There are some important tasks, such as transporting documents for the UNOColonial force. In the event of disorder involving the Sea Kings or Red Kites, Icould get drafted. My friend Mitchell was called up for six months on his return from Pan Arctica –he’sdue home any day now.

Bike couriers are used to transport most items across Elmet –on‘last mile’ drop-offs. Transportation further afield is undertaken using Light Rail and the Keels and Kitejammers on the Bay.”

48 Travel mode priorities for currenturban design (in order):

Walking Map identifying Cycling roads most frequently Trams used for cycle journeys within Leeds Train Hub Bus

Electric/Hybrid cars—remote areas only

Aerozips/Hydropols-international travel

49 Bramham Health Centre: ALifeline forthe Bay

“Sometimes the little success stories mean a Ihave acomplicated drip irrigation system based on wooden and says Tina Vieri, 48. She works as anurse and nutritionist lot” clay pipes and straw.Inthe wet winters we collect the water in at ahealth centre she runs under UNOColonial jurisdiction for covered clay-lined tanks which are kept clear of vegetation and the benefitofthe Da Hai YouMin community at Bramham west silt. Ihave aseries of water wheels that run on bicycle power. of the Bay of York. We take it in turns to pump the water around the garden and keep it aerated. Not only is the garden crucial for food, but it “The centre sits in the middle of extensive forest gardensthat produces the essential vinegar,alcohol and honey that Ineed to used to be owned by the Chevin Tech Hub. At the far end there keep wounds clean and to make the health centre as aseptic and is aquarantine centre with its own kitchens and water supply; germ-free as possible. this is for refugees who might arrive sick and in need of care but also could carry diseases and parasites that we are anxious My still room is constantly busy in the autumn as the apples come not to introduce to the area (e.g. the type of mosquito that acts in. Ialso convert potatoes and cereals into distilled butanol and as avector for Bieberia). Most people respond well to aclean, ethanol –purely for medicinal purposes! In between the fruit comfortable environment, good food and plenty of sleep. Most of trees and the rows of roots and herbs, Ihave large numbers of the sick and newly arrived refugees just want to talk or find some bee hives. We monitor hives all over the community and ensure peace. that there are plenty of flowers for them throughout the season. The bees pollinate everything but also provide us with honey and She explains, “my team and Idoour best to patch up minor inju- wax, which have many different functions. ries and diagnose more serious conditions. One man arrived in Elmet seeking his family.Hehad dreadful leg ulcers that would The bane of my life: Ticks, nits, gnats, mozzies, midges, bed- not heal even after plenty of rest and convalescence. Imade him bugs, flies, fleas, cockroaches! aplaster cast, covered the foot of the cast with aremnant of an old rubber tyre and Ithen popped afew maggots into the cast As far as Bieberia is concerned, this is amajor worry.Most Sea and sent him on his way.Six months later he returned, not having King adults get doses of tertian or quartan fever from time to time found his family but with acompletely healedleg –thanks to the and they live with it. In some people it saps their strength. For the maggots which had gorged on the rotten flesh, turned into flies children, however,itcan be fatal. Many of them die of malaria-like and flown away. symptoms or dysentery before they are two and there is little we can do about it except prevention. The buboes from Derwentvi- Other than cooking, cleaning and comforting those Icare for,my rus (endemic in the Bay region) are horrible. main responsibilities are gardening and pest control. The garden covers several acres and provides fruit and vegetables for the Every window here is covered with amesh of waxed linen (flax centre and the wider community.Wealso have a field of Bulrush- is something else that Igrow in the fields around my garden). es out on the hill that power our diagnostic equipment. Ikeep Genetically engineered spider silk is also ahelp, but most people large numbers of hardy chickens and goats for eggs and milk find it unbearably hot in summer as it blocks the breeze too much products. We only eat the old hens and cockerels when they are even if it plays amajor role in preventingmosquito-borne diseas- no longer productive; same with most of the goats, although we es. Iconstantly struggle to get people to use screens around their do eat the male kids especially at festivals. Acommunity needs hot, screaming children. agood feast on occasion in order to feel alive! Everything that we eat is grown in the garden –apart from seafood which we get from the Sea Kings out on the Bay.

50 Three times ayear we load up the Angel Rail (Dales monorail) Since antibiotics ceased being viable in the mid-21st Century with food and medical suppliesand visit as many communitiesup (due to bacterial resistance) and in situations in remote commu- in the Dales Forests as we can along the line. Mostly we provide a nities without anaesthesia the chances of the women surviving a good meal, hygiene advice and psychological support. That goes caesarean are very slim. It can only be done in the direst emer- avery long way.Wealso deliver babies, pull teeth, set bones and gency e.g. to save the baby (only after the mother’s life is no perform cataract operations and other minor procedures. Some- longer viable as she would usually take priority) because of the times the pain of the condition is such that people will submit to dangers of shock and infection. This was the case before the major procedures such as hernia repair and amputations. 1950s (and certainly before the 1860s -there’slimited evidence of women surviving at all before then). The same goes for any Maternal mortality in Elmet is much better than it has been at any kind of major operation involving the chest or abdomen. time since the start of the Big Freeze, Ithink. We train midwives in how to deal with awide range of complications and birth posi- The most important thing aboutour work though is giving people tions and send them out to the communities. hope and showing that somebody cares.”

Health in aLow Carbon World Trees and green walls (in narrow streets) help soak up Decarbonisation was ahuge health opportunity.Poor air quality particulate pollution, very important for those communitiesthat due to fumes from cars and fossil fuel burning was once one of use alot of bioenergy—such as in the Dales where conditions the biggest killers. Our shift to more plant-based diets, and the are often basic. increased levels of physical activity from working on the land helped too. Healthcare today is geared towards prevention Reproductive Health rather than cure, with individual control over health monitoring via DREAM tech. As Guru Taleb pointed out, humans don’t deal Over the last hundredyears, in the same way as with energy, with abundance well—scarcity can be better.Physical health in radical developments in healthcare struggled to keep pace times of rationing—for example in late spring—can often be with accelerating challenges such as the demise of antibiotics. better than average. People grumble about the imposition, but The ability to swiftly sequence an individual’s genome led crucially they agree the system is fair. to immense improvements in human health. However,new fertility technologies allowed people in some countries to Healthy places =healthy people select only for boys, for example, or children with particular characteristics, and this led to an imbalanced society in gender Apermaculture approach to urban design and the rise of and skills. LILACS improved conditions within urban areas by increasing the amount of green space and biodiversity.Access to urban The widespread availability of more effective contraception green spaces is key to lowering stress levels and improving drastically reduced birth rates. After all, during the Age of mental health in general. The impact on the elderly is Energy Ascent, the rise in global population each year was particularly evident. about the same as the number of unplanned pregnancies! We shouldn’t forget these more mundaneinterventions in everyday Green spaces reduce the impact of heatwaves and trees cool life which often have amuch greater effect on populations and the air through evapotranspiration. lifestyles than more visible technology.

51 ADAY IN THE LIFE…. by Shamina Lalloo

MONDAY. 32°c Sunshine and showers

It’smorning. Iamsat on the roof of my dad’sworkshop, the He’seven looking over the traction bikes to see if he tallest building in our LILAC. Ican see the sun rising—it’s can improve them. He doesn’t have any Hub jobs at the golden light streaming through the tall green biopylons of moment so sometimes Ilike to sneak into the comms theCity of Elmet. As it rises higher and higher Ican see room and just call arandom number; it’slike nothing else every leaf, every branch of the giant tree-like structures. being able to shake hands with someone knowing they Birds all around me are singing their different songs. Ican are however many thousand of miles away.Mydad said feel the chill now evaporating, becoming the warm and wet my name would magically appear on the cleaning roster morning fog with the warmth the sun has bestowed. The every day if Iever did it again after the escapade with the world is waking up. Hanseatic collaboration.

In the distance on the south fields Ican see the farm After ahasty lunch gathered from the allotment the work workers chugging along down the grassy roads on their resumes downstairs and Igodown the road to study.I traction bikes. Ihear the church bells chime for 7–end of learn terotechnics (maintenance engineering), design, curfew.Then Iclimb down the ladder into the hydroponics chemistry and Mandarin. Also they have an old-fashioned and make sure the algal bioreactors are working, the solar powered DREAM interface that we can use to study different gas chambers are functioning and that the programming. School is easy here because everyone humidity and all that hooha is working fine by looking at the speaks English but Ihave acousin wholives in Edinburgh gauges. After this Igothrough aquick decontamination whose lessons are taught in about ten different languages and into our little clean room to check all the equipment is simultaneously. on and start to heat up the big machines like extractors by connecting them to the AE. At about this time my dad and After school and after the farmers finish work Igoforaging the team are starting to stir downstairs so Ihop through in the Children’sForest with my friends. People say the the old glass windows we have up there and down one of mushrooms from Foolish Wood are the best ever so we the outer trees. get lots, as many as its Dryad will allow us to take. My friend Benny owns aSol-Ute we all use. If I’m perfectly The workshop itself is the best part of the building.Ithas honest, that’sthe best thing about going. That and my dad recycled walls of Driftplastic and bioplas– if you look you likes me to search for seeds for the seed bank. can see bottle tops, plastic scissors and even toy car parts. Things dating from nearly two centuries ago that Just before dusk when the night time church bells ring I would have just been forgotten about have been recycled. get home with my earnings from the market crowd and Dad takes DREAM calls from businesses all around sit to alovely mealworm stew and garden salad. Igoto Elmet. Mostly,like all community workshops, the farmers, sleep soon afterwards in our roof garden where we have cobblers, bakers, potters and all the other tradespeople anice breeze and soft spider silk hammocks that my dad and crafts people come to him with their problems and he engineered to be the ultimate in bug-resistant ventilation. tries to come up with aPermaculture compatible solution. Ifall asleep to the insects humming and the chatter of He really enjoys just coming up with new ideas to do with parakeets as they settle down for the night. the lab work. Occasionally they’re useful!

52 TUESDAY: 35°c Heat Call.

Trip to Leeds Hub to meet some of the other students involved in the visit. (below: view of Headrow)

WEDNESDAY: 30°c Workshop day

“Man shows his best when he is in aposition to apply his usually varied capacities to several pursuits in the farm, the workshop, the factory,the study or the studio, instead of being riveted for life to one of those pursuits only”

PKropotkin 1898

Elmet technology is lamprasim-based: so-called “intermediate technology” designed to be Long-lived,Anti-fragile, Multi- Purpose, Renewable, Adaptable, SImple to Maintain.

THURSDAY: 24°c -Storm/rain

Farm day on Jacob Smith fields. Jonfei gave me along lecture about soil condition –he’sthe most serious teacher.Big storm in afternoon –about 3.30. Talbot didn’t get the armour out in time and fist-sized hail smashed all the greenhouse windows. River was 3m higher than normal from all the rain in the last few weeks, and washed out the Marigold, but the Sea King floating restaurant was ok.

53 FRIDAY8.30am Leeds South Bank

Some think the city should be an organism designed for pedestrians and street life, others that it is amachine to be improved upon.

-Guru Taleb

I’m with my mother’s friendCarlotta and her friend Ngosi We’re next to the ‘Feed Leeds’ vertical farm near historic Elmet CollegeinHunslet. Youcan see an aerozip pod easing its way onto the earth station not far from the 18th century riverside granary that is now awildlife and water- ways management hub. There had been aproposalfor ahigh-speed train but before the scheme could be properlyimplemented, technology had moved on and long-distance travel was by this new mode: avertical ascent, rapid horizontal movement in zero friction at the edge of space and then descent to the destination. All Leeds is left with is alength of high-level line that got converted into alinear park after the Thousand Flowers Revolution.

Students of various ages are already at work in the farm, learning the era of private land ownership, when maximising returns from hydroponics, protein simulation, algae culturing and farm main- each square metre of what used to be called ‘real estate’ was the tenance and turning out auseful percentage of the city’sfood driving force, rather than how people prefer to live and work. In supply.The district greywater system meets all the water needs addition, it’svery difficult to cool abuilding that’smore than seven of the farm so my filtered morning shower water is making its way stories high—very wasteful of energy.The whole macho symbol- to the vegetable roots. Carlotta just dropped off her son Ricardo ism of one-upmanship has faded as an urban design impulse: at the College Nursery and is abouttobegin her flexi-shift mento- you can see there are some decorative spires but no towers. ring the students and helping them shape up their learning plans There is agreat mix of places to live, including houses of white- for the next 5years. They are all part-timers who fitlearning into washed straw bale and bio-composites– pretty,quirky buildings their schedules around various other streams of work. ‘Pay’ is in all designed by different architects, they have features in com- the form of spendable points into their Globankaccounts. mon but all look similar in terms of their height and proportions. Just beyond South Bank in Beeston, there are hundreds of old Talking of history,it’saninteresting point that there are very few back-to-back houses (Leeds has more of these than any oth- buildings around here surviving intact from my great great grand- er city in the UNK, even accounting for the fact that many were mother’s era at the turn of the second millennium. They proved destroyed in the 90s). All have super-quick broadband, DREAM too expensive to run and insufficiently adaptable, so they have screens, acommunal CHP boiler and clever insulation –aspe- mostly been dismantled and the components re-used or recycled. cial film over the traditional brick. There are no extremely tall buildings because they belongedto

SATURDAY: 24°c—cloudy

Thousand Flowers centenary festival! Woke at 5am! Ouch! Had to take the bus to Leeds. Iwas with the girls from class –wewere marshals. Thousands of people turned out. We played Jingling! Wonaprize! Had agreat time with Lea and her family.BBQ –totally stuffed! Watched the Rugby League match. Amazingly managed to get 1hour’s DREAM time (Nujod will be pleased).

The festival this year includes arenewal of many of the fields and forest gardens initiated 100 years ago, with awhole month of celebrations. Revisiting past times may not be possible outside of DREAM, but an appreciation of insights from the past has grown –hence the 10,000-year library.

54 Ngosi

“Improving ‘green infrastructure’ created an enormous number of high- quality and rewarding jobs. I’m employed in asmall firm that designs buildingcomponents from 100% recycled bio-materials. It’sanexample of the vastly expanded environmental goods and services sector that over the last 20 years has helped to lift Leeds and the whole Elmet region out of the doldrums. My civil partner,Imtiaz, works from home, designing the latest generation of 4D printers which are prototyped here in Hunslet, one of the original cradles of engineering entrepreneurship more than 250 years ago. The designswill be exported all over the Yorscandia economic zone. The cluster of buildings in Holbeck became one of the first exemplary ‘green’ developments, built to the highest environmental standards. This is just one part of amuch greener scene than my great great grandmother tells of in her memoirs about the city in the time before the Big Shift, when development proposals rarely met sustainability criteria and hardly ever included green open space.

Eventually,bythe middle of the 21st century,acity centre wilderness well as many more trees than there used to be, there are miles of green park was completed just south of the river.Ithas specialised in re-intro- “herepaths” (people’spaths) and many rooftops covered in sedum or ducing native species and cultivars of traditional ones that are resistant turned into gardens –all helping to reduce the ‘Urban Heat Island Effect’ to the various diseases that spread as the climate changed. Every tree on aday like this. Greenery also takes up carbon dioxide and helps to in the park is adopted by residents as aName Tree, Home Tree etc. As reduce run-off during thermal storms and flash flooding.

Fang Sheng Gai Xin—The Thousand Flow- Akey aspect was the introduction of new strains of plants developed by an international team of botanical engineers ers Movement (led by adescendant of the famous 21st century botanist, Meriel O’Conor) to provide food, pollution processing, topsoil By the 2030s the failure of the previous steps towards tack- stabilisation, natural fibres and healthcare products. ling climate change meant the AfroSindian Alliance tired of trying to negotiate with various rogue/failing states over sus- The original formulation of the Thousand Flowers was in re- tainability.Having recognisedthe mortal danger that human- lation to energy—moving away from centralised provision to ity was in, with fearsome climate change taking hold, water community– led solutions. It became amuch wider symbol stress across many regions, species extinction and ecosys- of communitiestaking control of their own solutions in ev- tem collapse, they devised away to bring about abloodless ery aspect of life, at the same time preserving international revolution, shifting decision-making towards sustainable op- links—for example, through the Fractal Energy Grid and Jury tions, instituting amore or less completely circular economy Tythings. So amassive cultural change was brought about and influencing behaviour in all spheres of life towards lower towards active and positive engagement with life support sys- consumption of primary resources—the Gaian Bioeconomy. tems that had been largely ignored or poorly understood and This was backed up by the Emerald Planet reafforestation widely abused. and re-wilding under the Global Adjustment Team.

55 56 Mayor (Elmet Bioregion) Chimalagi

“I lead the Bioregional Assembly based at Elmet’sYeadon Hub and work closely with the UNOColonials, in preparation for their scheduled departure in 2152. The Chevin Tech Hub is essentially our HQ, with UNOColonial comms at Menwith Hill in North Yorkshire, and Forward Operating Bases at Knaresborough, Ripon, Leeds, York, Scarborough and the Central Bay Arcology. Recently there have been conflicts between Nidd Thalweg and the Dissenters in the Dales National Forest. The Red Kites are aproblem for all communities in the Dales. Since they are advocating areturn to using fossil fuels urgent action is needed to prevent proliferation.”

AFORTRESS OF LEARNING: Ke Ji Zhong Xin (Chevin’sTech Hub Mon- astery)

The Tech Hub was created on the site of the old Leeds Bradford Airport when it was realised during the ‘Wobble’ that abreak in technology of one generation would mean all civilised structures would be lost –due to the fact that resourc- es easily recoverable without advanced technology had been used up. The intention was to preserve as much as possible, especially communications and records, and offer an impregnable redoubt for the UNK DREAM node. One challenge was the difficulty of remastering digital information from the ear- ly 21st Century—a key period in the Big Shift, but one we have few accessible records for.Atthe time of the creation of the Clouds, little thought was given to historical storage (except for ventures like the 10,000 year library), leavingus with amajor gap in our knowledge. We know more about the early 20th Century than the early 21st!

The DREAM node allocates all work options for Service work in the Elmet City region, in addition to the satellites at Knaresborough, Skipton and York Hubs.

As with many structures in Elmet, alarge fraction of it is underground.

Yes. Time for your next module on the Blue Pearl The Big Maia. Shift?

57 BLUE PEARL -Part Two

The Thinkersdrifted on as Big Oversights At this point,disaster struck One and Twobuiltuptotheir crisis in the mostimmediate and points.They had never beenverygoodat obvious way. One of the west- spotting slow-burning high-consequence ern nations’ wealthiestcities threats at the bestoftimes. wasdestroyed by astorm surge following avicious hurricane amplified by higher sealevels. It had beenfull of the kind of Thinkerswho didn’t liketomention the words‘climate change’, and who had actuallypassed a lawforbidding the use of those words. This wasfinallythe prompt for real action.

Despite all their trialsand disappointments, and notwithout some major civil conflicts, the Thinkerswereable to unlock awellof exploita- tion of the Alternatives to oil, coal and gas. In fact,therewas an amazing ’coming together’ of humanity in the face of the multiple threats—a global response, exemplified by the signing of the ‘Declaration of Interdependence’.

Amid the hard times, many Thinkers had developed an understandable in- terestininstalling Alternative-Energy gadgets thatcombined electricity and heat derived from the sun.

58 They could even exportpower to the electricity grid, Localmanufacturing of Alternative Energy kit sprout- localornational. Verysoonfew buildings weregoing ed everywhere. All manner of locallyproduced goods up anywherethatweren’t temples to Alternative Energy. for localneeds came alongside this new featureof Thinker behaviour. The Community Thinkersorganised trading pools to trade greenelectricity for the best prices they could find in the carbon markets set up by the new governments in their efforts to head off the worst excesses of the Big Oversights.

They organised pension clubs, and used money made from Alternative Energy generation to topuptheir funds. Growing numbersofThinkersseemed to have learned the lesson about interdependence.

The Community Thinkers lived and worked quite happilyintheir neigh- bourhoods,but they shared ideas and plans with other like-minded communities in their own and other nation states.They wanted to know thattheir neigh- bourswereassecure as they were!

As the craze for Alternatives spread, so depen- dence on oil first withered and then vanished.

59 Thinkersbegan to talk as much about ‘localisation’ Many of the routine as they did globalisation. assumptions current among They still had globalisation Trading Thinkersinthe Age of communications of of Oil Addiction simply course. Thatwas abig evaporated.For example, factor in the renaissance once it had made sense of hope after the second thatwidgets should be GreatDepression. manufactured on one side of the Blue Pearl because labour wascheap and shipped to markets on the other side, at great The spreadofAlternatives but entirelyunaccounted in the poorernation pollution cost.Ballast states, and the deliveryof transferred invasive species, electricity to the third nearlyhalf of all shipping of Thinkerswho hadn’t wasoffossil fuels, and it had it at all beforethe tookhuge amounts of fuel GreatAwakening meant a justtopower the ships. verysimple thing: light at night everywhere. Enter the textbooks.

The Thinkersbynow began to lookasifthough they might be on course to stabilising their global population. The key, of course, wasthe education and consequent emancipation of women, as wasclear even beforethe Big Shift.

Slowlyitlookedasifthe worstexcesses of Big Oversight One could be avoided although the infrastructurechallenges associated with adapting to the delayed effects, especiallyofthe rising sea levels, remained huge.

But concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmospherewerebeginning to level off.Scientists were becoming less anxious.Innovations in the technologies of both abatement and adaptation werebreakingout all over in the Alternative Energy communities. As the Thinkerslookedback, it seemed oh so difficulttounderstand why they had takenso long to see,and do,allthese obvious things.

60 61 The Perils of Progress—Joel Millward-Hopkins

In the centuries of the Energy Ascent the Thinkers began to …sothey rushed recklessly towards their misconceived goal, realise something...they really were phenomenallyclever.They and they looked down on those cultures refusing to build towers had travelled to the moon, split the atom and played with the like theirs –surely they must not be as capable as us! secrets of life. But what didn’t cross their minds was that, unlike the bees and Their collective brain had grown unfathomably large, but this their hives, their tower was not the product of tens of millions of presented some problems. In comparison an individual brain years of evolution… and it was leading them, running, climbing, was minute, so no single Thinker could really come close to fully flying, straight into atrap…because the further the tower grasping their collective knowledge. protruded into the sky,the more incapable they became of living down on the ground, in the real world…and the tower,too, had no Unfortunately,the fact that they knew so much led them to believe safe destination -they couldn’tsee that it was taking them ever that they couldn’t, at the same time, be incredibly stupid… often further into thin air. more so than their ‘primitive’ancestors. Then came the floods and the storms, the droughts and the Even though it became almost impossible for any Thinker to famines, the wars and rationing. Now they could no longerremain become an expert in even arelatively small subject, they were blind to their self-destruction, the fragile base of their tower that still obsessed with finding out more, inventing bigger,faster and they’d believed would support eternal consumption. more complex things, and becoming,bytheir definition, ever more intelligent; they were pushingforward the boundaries Their tower ruptured at its foundations and fell back to earth. of knowledge and technological progress without really understanding how or why. Finally,the Thinkers understood that ahealthy civilisation must grow as awhole, with its mythology,culture and politics evolving In building their civilisation they were like bees building their hive: in harmony with its geographical and technological expansion. no individual bee designs ahive themselves…they design only After all, how healthy would ahuman body be if the growth of its an individual cell, based upon those few cells aroundthem. heart, lungs and mind did not keep pace with that of its flesh and its bones? But where ahive works, this tower into the sky was unstable. The Thinkers in the nations that had done most to build the tower had For too long they had focused only on flesh and bone –the pulse no idea where it was going,but from every corner of society could of their civilisation had grown weak, it was gasping for breath, be heard achorus of enthusiastic proclamations… while its mind lay frozen. We’re moving forward! Progress is being made! So they began to attend to these neglected, undernourished Don’t panic! organs, to synthesise where they could the spirit of both the old Everything is under control! and the new.

62 They realisedthat their individual freedom had come hand in hand with asense of isolation and separation, and that it was astrange type of freedom, directed by economic deliberation.

When they began to aim for amore sustainable society they rediscovered a community spirit of the past, but one where each individual retained their liberty -their freedom of expression, sexuality,and spirituality.

They realised that money had come to preside over every aspect of life, separating them from the impacts of their actions, corrupting the value of things upon which you cannot put aprice.

So, without forgetting its value as ameans of exchange, they began discussing how to demonetarise those things that should always have remained out of financial range.

They realised that the path from holistic hunter-gatherer to hyper-specialised modern human had cast them as expendable parts in adirectionless machine.

So, recognising the power of cooperation and acollectively shared goal, they carefully divided their labour and skills while ensuring that each and every person remained aware of the whole.

There was no doubt that during the Age of Energy Ascent they had achieved many miraculous things, but their methods had cultivated atragic dependence upon a manmade world that they should never have hoped to sustain and while their cultural knowledge was driven to extinction, they had clung to their brave-new-world in vain.

On the day they no longer called this progress, things began to change.

63 Elmet: AGaian Bioeconomy

Planet Earth—Gaia—is a finite object. This im- For200 yearsinthe Age of Energy Ascent,society wasbased plies thattherehas to around limitless growth—relying on fossil fuelstoprovide more Any child could be alimit to growth. and moreenergy to increase foodproduction, which drove a have told you growing population, which used morestuff,and so on. thatthis would be abit of a problem.

meanwhile, the Thinkers wereatitagain—on their waytothe moon for the third time.

Houston, we have a problem…

The explosion in the oxygen They had limited,basic tools and not tank caused adangerous much time. Nevertheless,away wasfound build up of carbon dioxide They wereaverylong to stop the build up of gasinthe cabin in the cabin. wayfromhome. and to bring the travellerssafelyhome.

On alarger scale this wasthe storyofGaia— Spaceship Earth. 2. We knew the solution—keep emissions 1. We knew what the problem was—a dan- to zero (and try to remove what had gerous build up of greenhouse gases lead- already been released) ing to climate change.

3. We had the tools: carbon pricing, new technologies, changes in behaviour...

...but what to do exactly?

64 The Timeline of the Big Shift We created a new We used our creativity to kind of society… mimic nature and turn our Irecognised asociety with astable system from one based oxygen, carbon populationand use of on limitless growth to dioxide and the resources that keeps within natural carbon one based on adynamic, the boundaries of its home self-regulating steady- cycle ecosystem. Joseph Priestley state: AD 1772 aGaian Bioeconomy.

Idiscovered carbon dioxide is agreenhouse gas which keepsthe earth warm John Tyndall AD 1860s Permaculture Principle 7: Apply Self-regulation: Guru Taleb: “The richer we are, the harder it is for us to Idiscovered that live within our means” humans were “All livingsystems have in increasing carbon Most emissions were dioxide levels common that they sustain a Svante Arrhenius created by the richest AD 1890s steady state by being dynamic nations. The poorest nations had no choice but and self-regulating” to increase emissions as Isaw levels of they brought people out of carbon dioxide in Guru Lovelock poverty.Inorder to reduce the atmosphere total emissions, this meant rapidly rising Crucially,aGaian dynamic equilibriumisnot static—it the first step towards zero Charles Keeling reacts, evolves and grows more resilient in response to a emissions was for the AD 1958 rapidly changing environment: it is Anti-Fragile. richest nations to go through aprocess of degrowth.

Iinformed governments that this would be a The Thousand Flowers Movement problem James Hansen Keeping emissions to AD 1988 zero required global cooperation—this was the philosophy of the Thousand We (195 nations) Flowers movement agreed warming as expressed in must be limited to the Declaration of 1.5°c Interdependence. COP21 AD 2015 For example, international trade meant that emissions generated within a We (200 nations) country were dwarfed by the emissions associated with food signed the and consumer goods imported from outside. It was no good Declaration of Interdependence, if one country acted alone—a global approach was needed. triggering the Big Shift In fact, the reality of the world even during the Ageof COP28 Energy Ascent was adrive towards ‘globalisation’ -ever AD 2022 closer integration and cooperation. The overconsumption and corruption of the Age of Energy Ascent did not negate all the good that had been achieved. The spread of ideas and expertise improved the lives of millions of people. Ichaired the Global Adjustment Team at the time net zero Thus during the Big Shift, there was a‘great release’ of carbon emissions the human spirit. The idea of the ‘Brotherhood of Man’ were achieved common in many religions became apractical necessity. Maari Wangarathi Humans across the globe were no longer in competition, AD 2098 but were bound together in the face of adversity.This was the essence of the Thousand Flowers.

65 The Circular Economy: Asystem where nothing is wasted and resource use is minimised—Permaculture Principle 9: Produce no waste

This is all well and good, but there are things that do not fit Around aquarter of all the circle… materials were used to build roads, bridges, houses… …in theAge of Energy Ascent nearly half There had to be no of all materials were overall growth in the built burned to generate environment. energy

There had to be afull shift By the 2040s, all the benefits of acircular economy had been eat- to zero carbon energy en up by economic growth. Somethingmore was needed...

It was ameasure of everything Crazily,italso included bad things. In the Age of Energy Ascent, that society produced—all For example, an oil spill required something called GDP was used goods and services. huge amounts of money to clean to measure how well asociety up—and this counted towardsGDP. was doing.

So if you wanted abetter GDP score you needed afew more disasters!

66 AGaian Bioeconomy has 0% GDP but since this Other measures of success are now used—for measure of success was discarded during the example levels of health and wellbeing.There are four Big Shift it is no longer relevant. characteristics of atypical Gaian Bioeconomy:

1. Sustainable 2. Limit inequality Scale: stable through the population and Citizen’sIncome. consumption. Growth was a Nature largely substitute for hope did this for us— in an unequal by the start of world. Inequality the 22nd Century was abig problem populations were resulting in poorer declining in most health—even for areas (though the rich. not Elmet)

3. Efficient allocation of 4. Measuring resources things that through matter: health Globanking—a and happiness. DREAM Instead of GDP, piggybank. we have GDW— Transactions Gross Domestic are geo-coded Wellbeing— so local trade is including the encouraged. following 4 measures:

A) Keep connected: B) Keep Active: for example our system of DREAM Permaculture and cafes allow Hub jobsensures us to connect that everyone with anyone has something anywhere, physical to do trading, learning within their and sharing working day. talents and expertise.

D) Keep Learning: C) Keep Giving: Our DREAM DREAM gives environments us the chance mean that the to build credit youngest childcan by volunteering access learning and contributing beyond the wildest our expertise dreams of those to help solve living onlya problems century ago. anywhere.

Those societies who score highly in all of the above report the greatest levels of good health and satisfaction,atthe same time as keeping emissions to aminimum.

67 heat

waste

raw materials

products

As pointed out by Guru Lovins*, Our processes put rare and exotic On the other hand, during the Energy Ascent, we elements from all over the periodic table nature makes myriad mined ores, fashioned them into through violent conditions inside costly products, even self- products, then threw them away. furnaces and reaction vessels, and then replicating and self- discarded most of the results as waste. reproducing ones, from just:

Biomimicry and Air aRegenerative Economy Soil Water

Sunlight

Nature uses only ahandful of common elements, reactions are catalysed by enzymes at lightning speed under normal temperatures and pressures, and there is zero waste.

Each step’sproducts are food for the next in an endless cycle.

Although we still have along way to go, through mimicking nature we aim to achieve our regenerative society.

Our aim is for every person to leave the planet in ahealthier “You state than it was when they have noticed that were born. Any negatives (for everything we do is in acircle, example, the materials we and that is because the Power of Nitrogen cycle consume just in order to stay the World always works in circles, and alive) must be outweighed by everything tries to be round…the sky is round, and Ihave heard that the earth is the restoration we engage in. round like aball, and so are all the stars. The wind, in its greatest power, whirls. Birds make It’skind of ironic that one of their nests in circles, for theirs is the same our biggest uses of energy religion as ours… Even the seasons form a is just to deconstruct old great circle in their changing, and always materials and resources from come back again to where they were. The the Age of Energy Ascent life of aman is acircle from childhood to and reintroduce them into childhood, and so it is in everything where power moves.” natural cycles. Black Elk

*Source: Amory Lovins “Reinventing Fire”

68 There are 9planetary boundaries:

Climate Change—apparently stabilising following falls in greenhouse gases

Biodiversity Loss— uncertain recovery in some areas following re-wilding

Biogeochemical Flows—recoveringfollowing Permaculture approach to food “When production one tugs at asingle thing in Ocean acidification—major worries and global impacts. No sign of recovery so far nature, one finds it attached to the rest Land Use Change—problems increasing due to competition between food, energy and ecosystem services of the world” -John Muir Freshwater use—recovering in Elmet, under severe pressure globally Energy Ozone depletion—recovering followingMontreal Protocol in late 20th Century from the Sun Atmospheric aerosols—recovering, but problems resulting from use of biomass for energy

Chemical pollution (toxics, plastics, heavy metals, radiation) -recovering

Carbon cycle Water cycle

Circular economy

Biosphere -composed of many ecosystems

Ecosystem

Carbon storage Human economy

69 The People of the Pennines Awalk through the communities of the United North

by Tsaone Fishner-Kroos

“As it is useful that while mankind are imperfect there should be different opinions, so it is that there should be different experiments of living; that free scope should be given to varieties of character,short of injury to others; and that the worth of different modes of life should be proved practically,when anyone thinks fittotry them.” JSMill –OnLiberty

“The wealth of nations is measured by the quantity and quality of their forests” -Holmgren, “Principles”

The glory of the PennineForests— seeminglyunbroken temperate rainforest from horizon to horizon in the hazy evening light. Appearances can be deceptive however.This, the Dales National Forest, is aworking landscape, full of people. Large areas of the forest are coppiced for biomass, and tended as forest gardens. The Littondale Arcologies (abandoned in 2096) can be seen in the distance..

Biodiversity is high, and rising, with the re-wilding of the landscape proceeding apace after initial reafforestation in the mid-21st century.

70 Elmet is by no means autopia...

Although we have been fortunate in the development of have agreat deal to offer by giving apractical demonstra- our low carbon society,there are critical voices, none more tion of many different concepts of humanity’srelationship so than in the upland areas of the country that have gone to the land, of their ability to be sustainable, the treatment through radical changes in the last hundred years. While of different races, sexes, religions and minority groups. the defining feature of the urban areas of Elmet is of a They can help answer pressing questions such as the val- coming together of groups and an increased degree of co- ue of technology vs primitivism, capitalism vs communism, operation, not everyone has bought into this vision. The nomadism vs settled life, specialism vs generalism in a Pennine forests are inhabited by abewildering variety of rapidly changing environment and the efficiency of cities communities, sects and factions united only by their desire vs self-sufficient rural districts/communities. for separation from the mainstream. Oh, and they’re also famous for their music—after all, Little The growth of the forests through the late 21st Century, Greenby is the birthplace of Angelina Nazee of ‘Yorscan- and the rises in temperature, allowed for colonisation of dian Rhapsody’ fame. the infertile uplands by quite adense population, descend- ed in part from refugees and environmental and religious Keeping in mind the Permaculture principle groups, not to mention afew outlaws. Many of these com- ‘Use and Value Diversity’ we have to munities feel that the sustainability culture of Elmet does consider the Experimentals’ response not go far enough. For some, civilisation itself is the prob- to our drive for sustainability—why lem. However,atleast one group advocates adangerous exactly do they not share our re-birth of afossil-fuel economy,and have deliberately set views? By questioningus, they themselves up in conflict with everyone in the region… help us define ourselves.

The people of the coast have several names for the up- landers, including the derogatory ‘Feral’. The most gener- al terms in use are ‘Dissenters’ or ‘Experimentals’. They

71 ADales Visionary Deadman Communities: One of the largest groups in the Pennine area, characterised by militant environmentalist and anti-authoritarian views. Members go barefoot, live in tree houses and pueblo-style eco-villages; mostly vegetarian apart from ritual feast days; religious views include the ‘live simply so others may simply live’ movement.

Sons of Fire: Often called the ‘Green Dictatorship’, life is dominated by draconian punishments for environmental infringements like littering, includingthe notorious ‘eco-prisons’. A‘dry’ community (no alcohol allowed).

Meughers: an all-female group, using artificial means of reproduction. Level of technology very high, focused on advanced renewables especially micro-hydro technologies, wind and solar, Ames Ruben is a40-year-old tech-entrepreneur who with acombination of organic farming and genomic engineering. is planning on opening aresearch facility in the Dales Forest for nuclear fusion power,with the eventual Cornucopians/Free Marketeers: closely aligned with the Red aim of, in his own words, “ending the world’senergy problems within 50 years, and facilitating economic Kites (whom the colonialsregard as aterrorist organisation) growth indefinitely”. At the press conference that was –core beliefs are arevival of early 21st Century free-market held to mark the opening of the pilot-stage facility a philosophy—a ‘winner takes all’ attitude—in addition to denial of terrorist incident occurred, still under investigation climate change, extractivist use of fossil fuels, child labour and by the authorities. AParasite was set off,injuring slave labour.They are conspicuous meat eaters—and poachers 23 people. Amilitant group claimed responsibility, of the Dales Forest animals. These groups also include “Cargo objecting to his search for essentially free energy, cultists” who worship the material goods of the Age of Energy pointing out that there would then be no limit on Ascent. humanity’suse of the earth’sother resources. Rubens’ long-term plan is in fact to re-wild large Limiters: Abizarre neo-Buddhist sect. Religious views include sections of the earth, and he believes that producing the right to excrete only acertain amount of CO2 in their lives, an infinite, clean energy source in underground followed by ritual suicide. Practise extreme meditation and power stations will allow this to happen. He argues starvation techniques to slow metabolism. that “through developing powerful technology utilising ‘free energy’ we will end up mostly eliminating the Nomads: Groups of Travellers, itinerant farm workers, wandering need for factories, roads, cities and so on, i.e. goods poets, Sea King refugees, and others. Appleby Horse Fair is can be produced locally using printing manufacturing afocus for these communities. Included in this group are the technology,transport can be via an underground travelling medics of the Angels Rail, taking their life-saving skills network of ‘vacuum cars’, telecommunication will remove the need for urban congregations, and from settlement to settlement. people will be able to live in suitable dwellings within alargely natural surface landscape.” Survivalists: Small groups and individualswho choose to avoid community living for various reasons includingapocalyptic and fundamentalist religious beliefs. Below: Ribblehead viaduct in the early 20thC—moorland burning led to loss of diversity.It’sshocking to think that Old Timers: Original farming inhabitants of the Dales who have 150 years ago there were almost no trees in the area. Now managed to adapt to the changes over recent decades and are it’sarich ecosystem: animals need athree dimensional now thriving. environmenttoinhabit. Topoffacing page: the same area today.

72 One of the iconic Dales Lynxes with roe deer prey at Ribblehead viaduct, Understory vegetation is critical for Eurasian lynx, and is ameasure of near Little Greenby,Dales National Forest. suitable quality of habitat, since they prefer woodland with structural diversity,good cover for stalking prey (the woodland dwelling roe deer) There are finds of British Eurasian lynx bones dating from as little as and dense thickets for resting. 1,700 years ago. The animal then went extinct in the UK, and was reintroduced in 2029; the first lynx in this area were recorded during the The limestone landscape of the Dales may in fact give them an edge – Big Freeze of the 2090s. giving sufficient cover in some places to hang on in small numbers across awide area. Looking to the future, acombination of limestone geology, with areturning woodland cover and an associated increased presence of roe deer attracted to the woodland, suggest that the lynx will do well.

Self-willed Land —Zone 5ofPermaculture

In the early 21st Century,the turmoil of the Big Shift resulted Afew examples: in many people returning to using biomass (wood) for energy on ahuge scale. Deforestation was catastrophic. At the same Beavers: Extinct in UK by 1000AD,reintroduced early 21st time, in many areas of Europe, people were abandoning rural C, (Pennines: 2028) Beaver are akeystone species and are areas to move to cities. Fortunately the global reafforestation called ‘ecosystem engineers’— that is, they make habitat for programme then took place under the auspices of the Global many other animals—lush meadows, small pools, luxuriant Adjustment Team. In the UK, the Pennine grouse moors riverside vegetation. European beavers don’t make large had disappeared under athick canopy of carbon-absorbing dams, and are frequently hard to detect. woodland by late in the century. Boar: Extinct in the UK by 1500AD, reintroduced late 20th C The re-wilding movement and Children’sForests, akey part of (Pennines: 2020s) Boar eat rhizomes of bracken and prevent it the Thousand Flowers regeneration, began with reintroductions spreading. Their rooting through the soil makes space for wild of birds like sea eaglesand red kites, the return of salmon flowers to establish themselves. However, theydamage crops to rivers, and continued through the 21st and early 22nd and are implicated in the spread of Derwentvirus. centuries driven by advocates such as Guru WemSheekes, the Brazilian earth systems scientist. Lynx: Extinct in the UK by 800AD, reintroduced early 21st C(Pennines: 2090s) Toppredators are essential to an In the forests, ash is thriving, at least in the damp crevices in the ecosystem. Lynx predate on roe deer,preventing them from limestone. Juniper is obviously also suited to that environment. overgrazing, especially in the limestone areas of the Dales. Across the region we see vast beech forests, hazel, rowan They (alongwith wolves) have become icons of the National (mountain ash), blackthorn and even wild cherry.Silver birch is Forest, and abig tourist draw. the pioneer tree par excellence. It is known for improving soil quality and preparingthe ground for other species. Wolves 2045AD (Pennines: 2090s) Wolves too alter the behaviour of prey species, encouraging acascade of positive Reintroductions are still continuing—the latest debate is over changes to the landscape.The effect on humans is also bears. Public acceptability of large mammals—especially profound: senses become heightened when travelling through predators- is ahuge issue in the UNK, however we are alandscapecontaining apotentially dangerous predator. learning much from neighbours on the continent where re- wilding is much more advanced. Each reintroduction helps to reconnect the strands in the web of life– including humans and their communities.

73 Left: Sebastiao Salico, like the trees he loves, is craggy, weathered and solid. Over six foot, swarthy and built like a bear,heexudes an air of unshakeable authority,essential in holding his fractious community together.

The Pennine Eco-Community of Little Greenby

Early morning. We are standing near the firewatch tower on the felling in the Brimham catchment –especially the Children’s watershed above Mossdale Scar near Little Greenby,onthe Forest of Guisecliff Woods. trail of roe deer.Smoke from aforest fire hangsover the valleys ahead and shimmers in aheat haze. SALICO: “First, I’d like it on record that this is along-standing problem. We’ve been working with the AfroSindians at I’m with Sebastiao Salico, leader of one of the most successful Knaresborough Hub to stop the infringements in the national Deadman Communities (famous as the birthplace of Angelina park area but they’ve so far seemed unable (or unwilling) to Nazee). Iask him about the continuing dispute between the intervene.” Ridge Experimentals (mostly from Salico’scommunity) and the people of the Nidderdale conurbations over poaching and tree- FISHNER-KROOS: “Tell us abit about you and your community...”

Right: the Pennine community of Little Greenby.

Built on the remains of a 19th century village, communal apartments are constructed within the tree canopy on top of the older buildings.

Power is provided by sun, water and high-altitude kytoons, protein by termites housed in artificial mounds.

Community members regard the Earth as alive and wounded by technology; they avoid walking on the ground where possible.

74 SALICO: “I’m the leader of Little Greenby—one of the FISHNER-KROOS: “You have been quoted many times to the Deadman Communities. It’sanenvironmentally driven effect that civilisation itself is not sustainable. Civilisation is based Rhizome commune. Although the final judgment on decisions on cities, which by their nature require imports of raw materials lies with me, the socialist ethos of the commune leads to the from somewhere else. However,some would say your eco-village majority of decisions being made by the people’scouncil. communities are trying to return to arosy-tinted vision of the past. What do you say to those who think it’sirresponsible to advocate I’m adriven individual who, ultimately,gets the job done. Iwill apre-industrial lifestyle out in the forests when the population fight tooth and nail for my beliefs and the philosophy of the is so dense? The UK could support amillionpeople living your commune. It is vital that people are made aware of the necessity lifestyle at most. Instead, we have apopulation of upwards of 80 to embrace the ways of the forest. Holmgren said 150 years ago million.Your groups only survive in fact because of protection by that ‘The measure of anation’swealth is the quantity and quality the authorities.” of its forests” and “forest must be the predominate land-use in uplands of the catchment”. These forests are already under SALICO: “Yes, we believe civilisation itself is the problem. threat from invasive species and fires due to rising temperatures Technology and techno-fixes are not the answer...Think carefully and mismanagement. Trees are struggling from elevated CO2 about how many people your hub in Elmet could support if you levels and heatstress, reducing their resistance to diseases that did not import energy and resources from elsewhere. To us, are turning parts of the forests into dead zones. The re-education it is obvious that we have to find away to survive in the long of society in the ways of Mother Nature is amust and we, within term on our ‘landbase’—those few square miles surrounding this community,will strive to achieve this by any means possible.” our settlement. Only then can we claim to have achieved atruly sustainable culture.” The commune members are of the belief that all of the earth’s issues stem from the inherent unsustainability of acomplex FISHNER-KROOS: “But, in effect, you imply that even in an industrial civilisation and therefore have made aconscious effort almost zero-carbon society like Elmet most of the population is to promote amove towards a‘pre-urban society’, reverting back surplus to requirements—and doomed? That there will be some to acommunity which is reliant upon the sustainable utilisation kind of crash?” of the Earth’snatural products. The commune members see themselves as part of asymbiotic relationship with the earth, the SALICO: “Wetry to avoid making these kind of predictions. We trees and the ecology they consequently sustain. are there to show there is another way—we are the reservoir of ideas that will be called upon when the time comes. Perhaps in the long run people will think of us as pioneers to abetter future. It will not be afuture where complex civilisation exists.”

75 The Littondale Arcologies

An arcology is distinguished from amerely large building in that it is designed to lessen the im- pact of human habitation on any given ecosys- tem, through being self-sufficient and self-reg- ulating.

They seemed to be agreat idea at first—rather than having to adapt to climate change globally, humans could retreat to climate-controlled bub- bles. The movement was particularlyinfluential in the mid-21st Century but most Arcologieshad been abandoned or adapted for other uses by the end of the century.While some were well- planned and able to house thousands of people in an area with avery small ecological footprint, many had become enclaves for elites to shut themselves off from the world. They failed as it proved impossible to keep them running without significant external energy inputs.

Industrial archaeologists are attempting to exca- vate and restore some of the support systems of this arcology in the upper Litton valley,inorder to preserve it as atourist and cultural attraction. In line with Elmet’spermaculture approach, it is also being mined for recyclable materials and re-purposed as asection hub for the Chevin ar- chives—its termite-mound inspiredventilation systems proving to be excellent for preservation of old documents and textiles.

76 The Red Kites—The Real Dissenters of the Dales

“Climate change causes conflict like it causes storms”—Francois Hollande

“I have one sole passion, that of the free life in one of the rare plac- es where aman can still be free”

What are your views of Elmet society? Above: The notoriousSar-Zhen O’Byrne is the leader of the Red Kites, aFree Market “People in Elmet talk about asustainable equitable society,but none of group. He is rumoured to run illegal goods up their ideas stand much scrutiny.Their so-called community consists of and down the East Coast, and was implicated in the murder of the UNOColonial liaison acomputer programme running every aspect of their lives, backed up officer Da Shi Thomas Haymer in 2148. by UNOcolonialmilitary force if they step out of line. The Red Kites have a‘winner takes all’ world- This so-called low carbon life that they aim for is nasty,brutish and view,indirect conflict with the prevailing short. They can’t stop looking to the past but Iampretty sure that those Interdependency culture of Elmet and the more agricultural-based societies prior to 1750 were grossly unequal, grossly extreme Experimentals, whom they despise. In discriminatory of women and underpinned by slave or peasant classes. many cases they are the descendants of the They were marked by periods of starvation, poor health and short life elites who created the arcologies in the mid-21st spans. Century,but who lost out when many of the fossil fuel and other resources they monopolised were no longer needed. Then after 1750 and the start of the Energy Ascent there was rapid economic growth: over that period there was asignificant They regard attempts to foster community reduction in inequality be it economic or sexual, and in addition a living as being equivalent to 20th Century-style huge improvement in public health and life span, industrialisation state communism. Most of the ‘community’ and urbanisation. The social structure went from autocratic to broadly seems to consist of young men who feel that democratic rule overthe same period. the peaceful Elmet culture offers them little in the way of excitement, despite the ethos of the Meanwhilethe attempts at egalitarian societies such as Soviet Russia Merantau Walkaboutbetween age 16-24. They aggressivelypromote their outlook and cause and Communist China resulted in rapid and dirty industrialization endless troublefor their neighbours. and massive abuse of human rights. Those societies were not egalitarian, instead they just allocated resources to asmall elite in a Recently,this has taken athreatening turn, with different way.They were also highlypolluting. the rise of Syed Goodfellow and the Rebel Coal climate change deniers in South Yorkshire. So the idea that you will end up with an egalitariansociety in asteady In love with the ideals of the Age of Energy state system is not supported by any historical evidence. Alow carbon, Ascent, they believe it is their God-given right zero growth society is likely to be highly unequal, bigoted with poor to return to the ‘days of glory’ when the mining healthcare and short lifespans.” communities of the coalfieldswere at their most prosperous. There have been several clashes with the Thalweg assembly authorities –in2147 and 2149 –and currently the whereabouts of Goodfellow are unknown.

77 THE RISING WATERS:DOGGERLAND—6200 BC

“The sea has risen before. We know now,from discovery of the Doggerland ‘Tundra Towns’ in the mid 21st Century,that North European civilisation was developed to a large degree in the low areasthat were drowned as the Ice Ages ended.

It’squiet. No buses, no bikes, no tech. Silent. The trickling of water catches my attention. Itread carefully.“Who’s there? No answer.“Hello?” Still no answer.Afluttering of wings –itwas just abird.

The storm has been and gone. Iwatch as adistant stream of refugees wind their way up towards higher ground.

You’ve no doubt noticed that we’re proud of Elmet’ssustainable society.We’ve achieved ahuge Below: Timeline of sea level rise in amount, but great challenges remain. The Big Shift took just alittle too long (although as always Northwest Europe. Note that between roughly 6000BC and 2050AD sea level we have to remember it’samazing that it happened at all). We reached zero emissions afew was stable. In that time, humans went decades too late to avoid atemperature rise of less than 2°c. It remains to be seen whether, from being farmers and hunters to living with our carbon capture technologies, we’ll be able to keep positive feedbacks in check (that in skyscrapers and walking on the moon. Stable conditions were vital for stable is, to prevent runaway global warming). The danger is not aslow buildup of problems; we know societies. It is likely that full ice melt is that instead earth systems can respond by lurching into anew state—like the abrupt differences now inevitable,and will probably take between Ice Ages and warm periods. Although we’ve managed to stabilise greenhouse gases, an equivalent amount of time. So for and they fell quite rapidly after the Big Shift, it will be hundreds or even thousandsofyears before the period 2050AD—10,000AD humans will have to deal with ever increasing they decline to pre-Ascent levels. The next hundred years are crucial in many ways. One tipping sea levels—a moving target. Do you point that has definitely occurred as alegacy of the Age of Energy Ascent is ice sheet melt leading evacuate coastal towns now,orina to sea level rise. hundred years? Human socieities will have to constantly adapt.

16000BC 8000BC 7000BC 6000BC –2050AD 2150AD

Adapted from National Geographic Magazine Dec 2012

78 Climate and Sea Level Although this seemed small to some, it still meant that “The danger lies in those places we aren’t looking, hundreds of millions of people were displaced from low-lying because we don’t have the imagination to look” areas across the globe. Paulo Bacigalupi The unprecedented bursting of agiant sub-surface lake in East In the late 20th Century when climate change first attracted Antarctica put paid to previous confidence. From that date, a attention, films and stories focused on the entire world’s cascade of changes guaranteed catastrophic sea level rises landmasses being drowned. People’simaginations were within decades rather than hundreds of years as previously captured by tsunamis, storm-surges, and apocalyptic thought. destruction. Science fiction writers imagined underwater living pods and Seabed Cities. It is true there were many instances of terrible impacts earlier on, including Miami in 2018, but this was in adifferent league. The reality was very different. Day after day,year after year,communities in low-lying areas found themselves under siege from the rapidly rising waters. In the first half of the 21st Century the impacts from climate Storms consolidated the rise…2m was reached by the end of change were revealedtobemuch more complex than anyone the century,with another 2m in the next forty years. had imagined,and taking place far more quickly.Huge efforts were made by scientists to constantly improve the In the UNK, the timing was bad. In 2093, as aresult of the predictions of their computer models, through rapidly growing Sea King disorders, work on the Humber and Wash barrages understanding of climate processes. Much knowledge was was abandoned, and the sea flooded in to form the Bay.Anew gained by acomparison with the rapid warming at the end of ecosystem had been formed. the last Ice Age (see below). Sea level rise is, however,not the worst problem associated By the mid-21st Century,decades of observationand with climate change—itisjust easier to comprehend.For improvements in computational power meant that the gap example, ocean acidification and the breakdownofoceanic between models and real-world changes had in most cases ecosystems is perhaps amore insidious threat. In principle, we vanished. The consensus from the 2000s through to 2050 was can cope with sea level rise. We can deal with mass migration, that sea level rise would be around half ametre by 2100. A with floods and droughts. We have nomeans of surviving metre or so at worst. fundamental change within the global oceanic system.

End of the Ice Age Post-2000AD Greenhouse gases contributed only around Antarctic could contribute 3m over 340 years. 1.3m over 150 athird of warming. Orbital forcing triggers years. Plus Greenland =1-2m =3mintotal. Thwaites Glacier deglaciation 19,000 years ago, greenhouse effect possibly 0.5m—non linear effects—rapidchanges. noticeable 17,000 years ago.

4-5 degrees of warming “within decades” Bolling-Allerod 14,600 years ago—exact cause unknown

79 THE RISING WATERS YueKeWan—The Bay of York By Talbot Overbury

2110AD—2.5m 2140AD— rise compared 4.0m rise with 2000AD

Predicted for Predicted for 2300AD 5,000AD 8m rise 40m rise

80 Like aliving dawn, greater flamingos rise above the western end of the Bay within the nature reserve. The shy birds seek out brackish ponds where they feast on plank- ton and bottom-dwelling organisms. In spring, some 2,000 migrants from South- ern France join the hundreds of perma- nent residents in this, the second largest flamingo colony in North Europe after the Wash. By June, the Bay begins to dry,with eutrophication sometimes causing mass die-offsoffish and other wildlife.

“As our Permaculture principles state: you “The idea of creating anational park in the Bay had been circulating even before Mayor Chimalagi’sappointment, but no Wild birds have have to think landscape-scale: one was taking any action. Ihelped establish the Bay Marine large reproductive potential—but large numbers in one place Reserve Association, under the auspices of the UNK SPB.” doesn’t mean large numbers globally. Management over whole landscapes is needed—including monitoring across the UNK In fact, he became its tireless, stubborn, single-minded director. using the Earthcorps cadets” Durayh became amissionary for the park project, spreading his gospel to anyone who would listen. So says George Durayh, an emeritus professor of terotechnology (maintenance engineering), looking out over the Bay.Bythe He envisaged anational park extending from the barrier islands of 2120s the new ecosystem of the Bay was being threatened Hornsea and Wolds Island north to York and south to Doncaster by proposed barrages and reclamation schemes, as well as –more than amillion acres that would make the Bay the largest sprawling Sea King settlements marine reserve in the U.N.K. Durayh’splan, which antagonised too many people, wasn’t implemented, but it proved to be Durayh, from Scarborough, moved to York to set up abusiness prophetic. When Mayor Chimalagi dedicated the Bay Marine in the York area, but fell in love with the Bay.Where others saw a Reserve in 2137, the barrier islands were excluded; ten years land ripe for development, Durayh saw ageographically peculiar later the colonials made the area anational park. and biologically diverse treasure.

81 Left: Otlaadisa Mahmud, an octogenarian living on Hornsea Island, likes to watch fast sailing ships –Kitejammers -leaving for PanArctica from her beach home –asmall dwelling made from reclaimed materials such as Driftplastic.

One focal point of the aesthetic is ahuge window (almost an entire wall) made from recycled glass –like astained glass window in achurch, the design depicting abeautiful shoal of fish speaks of the veneration of sea life. Agreater respect forthe vast power of Mother Oceania has recently inspired aresurgence in water deities rather than the sky gods of the Age of Energy Ascent.

Below: “Use Edges, Value the Marginal”: Seaweed harvesters near Beverley,East Elmet. Most of the surrounding area having been submergedover the course of the past century,and having suffered more than most from Sea King troubles, anew economy has emerged based on settlers making aliving from shallow-marine ecosystems.

Ocean acidification has caused many problems but at least within the Bay and Barrier Islands technologies that reduce acidification have made some progress in preserving stocks of bivalves such as mussels. Purifying stations use genetically modified algae and bacterial cultures to rid the water of heavy metal pollutants and radiation.

Life on these small islands is quiet now –most citizens moved to cities for protection when coastal areas became more risky to live on at the turn of the century.Restoration has been slow.

The Bay National Park is now a huge avian sanctuary.Different degreesofsalinity create achoice of habitats for Sea Eagles, Eurasian cranes, Great Egrets, Spoonbills, Little Bittern, Bluethroat, Black Kite, Marsh Harrier,Teal, Gadwall, Flamingos, Avocet, Whiskered Tern, Penduline Titand Kingfishers among many others.

82 The famous Inn on the Bay,above, established2113, is amajor draw for tourists and meeting place for young and old

The Inn on the Bay

Iat Chong “Larry” Goodwood’sancestors moved to the then Vale offered by this location is almost unmatched—unlike the dense of York some 100 years ago. urban areas of Elmet. DREAM holidays are ok when you have enough credit, but people want real-life beauty.Itisacombina- Over the latter half of the 21st century extreme weather had be- tion of the quiet and the astounding bird life which Ithink attracts come normal for the UK, with disasters coming too thick and fast people to the area”. for many communitiestorecover in between. However,the low pressure which hit the evening of 2nd March 2081 was excep- While the restaurant and hotel provide Larry and his family with all tional even by modern standards; it was made much worse by their needs, his real calling is permaculture of the aquatic variety, the spring tide which happened to coincidewith the storm. It was and it is through the restaurant that he can indulge this passion. about 3amwhen the combination of river flow and sea water All the food is produced within the Bay of York and surrounding broke though the levees, engulfing thousands of homes. In his marshes, mostly in the form of exotic algaes and jellyfish grown view Larry’sfamily were “appropriately prepared” however.Fore- in Larry’ssubmarine farms which flank the complex. Larry has seeing that the great flood may one day arrive the Goodwoods always been enchanted with this form of permaculture ever since had been in the forefront of designing modular floating commu- he can remember and spends almost all of this time developing nities. Their experimental community rode out the flood, merely new strains of algae with different tastes and textures to serve to having the inconvenience of tidying the gardens afterwards. his guests, in combination with the best of Sea King cuisine. It is for this reason, and also the nightly Catatumbo lightning show, The waters in the Vale of York retreated but soon returned and that guests flock from far and wide to dine at the complex. within 20 years the Vale of York was no more, replaced by in- tertidal salt marshes and eventually continuous water.Larry still The fame of the restaurant and hotel has now provided Larry with resides on alarge and rather impressive floating complex built by aplatform to promote the floating settlement concept and the his family following the great floods. He explains: idea that simply larger and larger levees and dykes cannot over- come nature. He regularly dines influential leaders who flock to “I’ve lived in other locations but the Bay of York is in my mind a his complextosample the exquisite food and better understand magical location and the place Ifeel most at home. It’ssuch a his approach. As he says: calm, beautiful, place and after the eventual construction of the tidal boom at the mouth of the bay (the Humber Gateway) which “Aquatic permaculture is the future. My algae farms require little single-handedly meets the whole area’senergy demand, the in the way of input and produce vastly greater yields of food than waters are almost always millpond smooth. The quiet tranquillity even the once highly productive soils of the Vale of York”.

83 The Da Hai YouMin (Sea Kings)

Permaculture Principle: ‘Creatively Use and Respond to Change’. One of the most serious impacts of climate changeduring the ‘Wobble’was the mass movement of people from Southern Europe and the Middle East, their poor treatment and the resulting destabilisation of communities in Northern Europe. In Elmet, billeting of refugees with native families, under the auspices of the UNOColonial authorities, was the preferred option. In some areas this worked well, but in many others there were protests— often the refugees were billeted with those least able to cope. By the early 22nd Century,amore stable and dynamic society had formed, and the bad old days had fadedfrom memory.

Now some of these communities are flourishing, and have developed aunique cosmopolitan culture (indeed, some have become tourist destinations in their own right).

Many people think of the Sea Kings as asingle group. In fact, they comprise acombination of deprived recently-arrived refugees living on floating hulks out in the North Sea, settled communities living among the experimentals of the Dales, high-tech micro- states, and the true Da Hai YouMin—the Bay of York and Doggerland West communities.

Above: Morning light picks out VAWTS (vertical axis wind turbines) surrounding aDaHai YouMin settlement—Drax Chikshuj— akey hyrdopolis settlement in the southern area of the Bay.

Phaedra Flit, aged 12, talks about her home on the Bay. We eatlots of fish and exotic fruit and veg grown in the hot domes. Most of our plants are grown hydroponically underwater “I live in the Arachnas-Kychy.Many years ago, due to global and we’re famous for our sehkachb (bivalve) farms. We don’t eat warming, the levels of the sea rose, and we had to find new ways vertebrate or dairy products as it would take up valuable resourc- of surviving. My people built aspider’s web of kibbutz hydropolis es. We keepbees of course. Birds eggs (made into the classic islands –chikshuj -each with its own purpose: dish beshkich) come from the wildfowl islands (with occasional poaching from the Marine SSSI). The central island is where we harvest our energy.Wehave smart SOVAWTs (Solar vertical axis wind turbines) that turn to Every day we do adifferent job, whether it is teaching children face the sun throughout the day,tocollect as much energy as how to work in the domes, grinding flour or supervising the tur- possible, and these also desalinate seawater. bines. If one person is especially good at their job, they become ateacher to those who take longer to learn. The next circle of floating islands are ‘home domes’. They are scattered with tinted geodesic domes made from solar-thermic We may seem advanced, but some aspects of life are basic, like glass that filters out UV,but still collects the energy.The individu- medical care. In comparison to Elmet, people have shorter life al triangles of glass automatically turn towards the sun to collect spans but happier lives. energy.Itissaid that from space, the home domes would look like giant dewdrops in aspiders web. From aworld where everyone could be your enemy,wehave become asymbiotic society where not only is everyone equal, The outside ring is for permaculture and manufacturing, things but we rely and depend on each other –wecouldn’t survive oth- like bee skeps, metalworking shops, desalinisation. All these is- erwise. Picture acamping trip: everyone relies on each other’s lands are connected by PELAMIS booms and sub-surface tur- skills and equipment to survive, no-one can possibly carry every- bines. In astorm, gyroscopes in the bases of the domes keep thing they need to keep going.” As Sea Kings say “ifyou want them steady and they ride out the waves. Everything is built from to walk fast, walk alone. If you want to walk far,walk together”. recycled Driftplas.

84 There are clouds on the horizon though. The Da Hai YouMin are often threatened by Triad gangs; in the Bay of York area this includes the Red Kites and the Sons of Fire. It is believed that the notorious gang leader Sar-Zhen O’Byrne is behind recent problems.

Right: ADaHai YouMin (Sea Kings) family make an evening meal in one of their floating settlements around Hull as Catutumbo lightning flickers over the Bay.Two little girls play on the floating barge garden (chinampas/hugelkultur—seaweed based agriculture)outside.

Below: This particular chikshuj generates some power through heat-stacks which exploit the geothermal temperature differential of the foundation reef of Barlow Mound, central Bay area.

85 Live Simply so Others may Simply Live

Anew religion of regeneration for the UNK? Conversation with an adept By Harjeet Overbury

Evergreen By Joe Nodus*

Tell us about your religion… Rhododendronand holly leaves; shroud, leaf-mould, ever-green; The religion is strange because its origin cannot be traced back to any one person, although it was prefigured by Arne Naess’ Deep Ecolo- Bare trees, reach, high above; moss capped rock. gy movement. Isuppose the most tangiblething we can point to was the 1968 view of Earth from the Moon –the famous Earthrise photo, Rosehip, and pink berries; spot, ivy-clad escarpment, that showed how alone we are in the Universe, and how vulnerable, at the same time as the fact that we’re all one family.Human beings water flows; beside, the path. are merely one of an enormous number of created beings all of which are woven together in the vast tapestry of life, with ties of kinship that Clouds come from ocean; river from clouds; stretch back into the mists of Deep Time. cycle unbroken; ever new.

The religion does not promise reward of everlasting life (at least not in River,relentless; as time; the way of many previous religions). There is no anthropomorphic ‘god’ estuary like entry; to real life that is worshipped. People talk about the religion but do not prosely- tise. People appear to take up the religion with no human prompting, Fish, to sea; we progress; but it seems to occur most often in people who spend alot of time in the ‘new’ forests, or around the many lakes and rivers springing up. Luther to the limitless. Standing Bear said “Every act in life is areligious act. We recognise the spirit in all creation, and draw from it spiritual power.The elements Beyond changing nature; and majestic forces in nature –lightning, wind, water, fire, frost –are vapour,condensation; regarded with awe as spiritual powers. Spirit (or ‘breath’) pervades all of creation and every creature possesses asoul.” sadness, gladness, Summer,Winter. It’sasimple religion –spend your time undoing human damage; re- generate the world; avoid excessive reproduction; leave this life when Mortal feelings you feel the time is right, and in away that will leave your body fitfor animals to eat, or to fertilise the land. The followers do not seem to feel come and go; fear or doubt, but rather increasing excitement as the time of leaving deciduously. approaches. Love Supreme; Which ‘human damage’ do followers spend their time undoing? Evergreen.

Humans recognised that though we exceeded the carrying capacity of the planet during the Age of Energy Ascent, we can’t reduce our population except very slowly.There are billions of us. We all have a responsibility to generate life rather than take it. The economic system in the Age of Energy Ascent turned living systems into garbage. Our new systems are designed instead to promote life. Cleaning the plastic and other garbage out of the sea, digging up concrete and tarmac and planting trees to finish the job, dismantling dams, reintroducing local- ly extinct animals and plants (rewilding), guardingagainst overconfi- dence in genetic engineering... Wow–there’salot to be done!

*the famous “Pilgrim Poet” of Elmet

86 Below: Embarkation at LEAVING FORPANARCTICA Port-of-Beverley

Elmet among others: Can Elmet be atruly sustainable culture? They know they are unlike- Before we finish our tour of Elmet and journey ly to see the UNK again. onwards, it’sworth considering for amoment We advise you to devise your own DREAM and Passengers boarding the how Elmet compares to the other groups and always keep exploring. U.N.K. Nansen at Beverley societies we met. October 27th 2050, for the voyage to Nuuk, Green- What is our response to those who advocate a As Guru Fukuoka said: “Before researchers be- land, are fully aware that a different lifestyle? come researchers, they shouldbecome philos- hard life awaits them in the ophers. They should consider what the human new North, but they are full Why exactly is Elmet agood place to live? goal is, what it is that humanity shouldcreate.” of hope.

NW Europe and Arctic PanArctica is loosely the region opened up by hostile, lacking soil and fresh water,and sub- the thawing Arctic, but also the nation state of ject to massive changes -permafrost thaws the same name comprising northern Siberia, inducing sinkholes, coastal erosion and car- Canada, Greenland and Arctic Sea islands. bon and methane releases. Not least, it is The Arctic Sea sometimes freezes over for dark for several months of the year.Itispossi- several months in winter,making travel dan- ble that the methane releases could overtake gerous. In comparisontothe conditions pre- all our effortstostabilise the climate and they vailing for most of the past few million years, represent amenacing threat. At the moment, this is balmy.The melting ice sheets have however,capture and storage technologies allowed settlement along the west coast of are managing to keep the situation just about Greenland, northern Canada and elsewhere. under control, and colonisation of the new The new lands exposed by retreating ice are lands in the north proceeds apace. 87 88 89 90 TIMELINE OF THE ENERGY ASCENT 1866 –First Atlantic TelegraphCablelaid 1968 –Earth rise photograph 1870— Rockefeller founds Standard Oil 1960s—UK conversionfromtowngas (made 1600 –Start of theAnthropocene(1st company from coal)tonaturalgas (fromnew North occurrence of maize pollen from theNew 1881—World’s first electricity supply driven Seasources)

WorldinEuropeansediments, dipinCO2due by waterwheel—Godalming, Surrey,UK 1973 –OPECoil crisis andPeak Oilfor USA to re-growthofAmericanforests) 1886 –First motorcar reserves 1698 –First steam engine – Thomas Savery 1890s –First long distance AC transmission, 1979—ThreeMileIslandnuclear accident SteamPump electrictrams replace horsetransport in US 1980s – Thatcher andReagan–neoliberal 1712—NewcomenSteam Engine used to 1896 –SvanteArrhenius theorisesthat policies pump waterfromamineatDudleyCastle, humans arecausingclimatechange 1986—Chernobyl nucleardisaster Staffordshire 1903 –First heavier than air flight –Wright 1988 –Hansentestimony on climatechange 1769 –James Watt steamengine Brothers TorontoWorld conference on Changing 1770 –Enclosures Act 1913—Haber-Bosch Process first used Atmosphere: 1772—JosephPriestley of Leeds, UK, commerciallytoproduce ammoniafertiliser “Humanityisconductinganunintended discoversbiological CO2 Cycle (the ‘detonator of thepopulation explosion’) uncontrolled globallypervasive experiment 1776 –AdamSmith writes ‘TheWealth of 1914 –Outbreak of WorldWar I whoseultimateconsequences couldbesecond Nations’,James Watt 1stcommercialsteam 1933 –Hitlercomes to powerinGermany only to global nuclearwar” engine 1939—Outbreak of WorldWar II 1989—Montreal Protocol limits CFCs 1789 –FrenchRevolution 1942—Beveridgeintroduces rationingduring 1991 –Fall of USSR 1801 –First demonstration of steam transport WWII 1992 –Rio EarthSummit 1816—Theyearwithout asummer—global 1943 –BattleofStalingrad –Hitlerfails to 1990s –Cubans adapttofossilfuels beingcut temperature dipcausingfamines as aresultof gain accesstoSoviet oil—amajor factorin off Tamboravolcanic eruption thedefeatofNazi Germany. Developmentof 2001 –9/11 attacks, startofWar on Terror 1829 –RocketSteam Engine Fischer-Tropschprocess(syntheticgas from 2000s –Peak Oil(from conventional sources) 1842—Experiments with electric cars coal)asareplacement 2010s –FloodsinUKattributed to climate 1844—RochdaleSocietyofEquitable 1948 –Welfare StateinUK(National Health change Pioneers—1st Co-operative service creation) 2011—Fukushimanuclear disaster 1848 –Revolutions andKarlMarx‘The 1951 –UKClean AirAct 2015 –Paris protocol on ClimateChange— Communist Manifesto’ 1957—Windscale andKyshtym nuclear aimtolimitglobalwarmingto1.5°c rise 1859 –Darwin‘Origin of Species’ accidents 2015—Slump in oilprices 1859 –Edwin Drake drillsfor oil, Titusville 1958 –Measurementsofrisingcarbondioxide 2016—Gridparityfor photovoltaics across Pennsylvania in atmosphere(KeelingCurve) most of EU 1860s –JohnTyndall recognises greenhouse 1960s –Green Revolution—new miracle 2018 –Miami Wipeout effect crops 2023—Oiland gasprices shoot up andhit 1860s –First bicycles, steam cars 1962—Rachel Carson ‘SilentSpring’ highest point

TIMELINE OF THE ENERGY DESCENT reintroducedtoUK flooded 2046 –Middle East famine 2080s—FoundingofPanArctica—unionof 2025 –Wem Sheekes‘NotesonWhat’s 2050s – The‘Wobble’,mass migration from Svalbard,Greenland andNovayaZemla What’-Great Famineoccurs. ‘Declaration of Mediterranean, Russia &significant sealevel 2080s—riseof‘Live Simply so others may Interdependence’and introduction of global rise;BilletingAct simplylive’ carbon tax. 2051—Submarine nucleardisasterinEnglish 2093 –Sea Kingsdisorder 2026- Construction of first offshore artificial Channel—parts of Southern Englandand 2090s -nearzerocarbonemissions achieved islandasmicrocountry off mainland US- Northern France evacuated(ExclusionZone) forthe first time develops into pirate state 2055 –Gridcrash,development of Tech hubs 2090s -Hekla eruption, BigFreeze, Foot and 2028 –UScivilwar triggered by 3-day andArcologies. Mouth. Norway andIceland devastated after blackout on East Coast. Nucleardisaster 2050s—Bioenergy CCSestablishedonahuge beingdominantinBig Shift during war; secessionofTexas andCalifornia scale—beginstodrawsignificant CO2 out of 2103 –‘Gojira’earthquakedestroysTokyo 2030 –UNRe-WildingAct &European atmosphere 2110—AfroSindian Alliance restores Energy Unioncompleted;peak phosphorus 2060s –Major expansionofsustainablefood order,reconstruction under UNOColonial 2031-2040 – Thousand Flowers movement productioninAfricathrough Thousand government;Biopylons widely deployed established in China Flowers movement—Golden Rice converted 2114 –Further flooding,formation of Bayof 2035 –First full-scale floating cities to aC4plant York.Hull barragefails Rotterdam&New Orleans 2061—Lagos EarthSummit, Saharopean 2120s—Floatingsettlements established in the 2038—Chineseabandon moon mining Energy Union area of Hull andBay of York.BuildingofPort 2040s –Re-wildingofUK, Amazon 2069 –Lastpetrolcars of Beverley reafforestation;space-based solararrays 2070s –Artificial photosynthesiscommercially 2130s—Forest coverreaches over 50% in established available; global population begins to decline Pennines 2045 –Greenland ice-sheet collapse,sub-ice 2074 –last regularconventionalaeroplane 2139 –PanArctica gold rush –mass migration lake burst in East Antarctica flights 2147—Bay of York National Park created 2047 –Abujanuclear disaster 2075 –Doggerlandincident—refugee crisis 2148— Record of 2consecutive decades of

2042 –MarsMissiondiscovers fossilised life. 2076— Human–levelmachineintelligence decliningCO2levels Global EarthObservation System completed. arrives, startofDREAM 2045—Extinctionoftigersinwild. Wolves 2081 –Floods, Thames Barrier fails, Hull 91 Glossary •Desalination- Processesthatremovesaltand minerals from sea watersothatitissafe fordrinkingand forindustrialuse. •Anti-fragile-Concepttaken from thebook‘Anti-Fragile’ by Naseem Taleb: notjust robust,but actuallygrowing stronger •DREAM-In this book: An immersive Virtual Realityexperience under stress,as, forexample,bones do. that pervades lifeinmanyways, forexample in learning(children canenter past worlds). Regulatesmanyaspects of thebioeconomy. •Aquaponics-Acombination of aquaculture(farmingofaquatic animals, e.g. fish)and hydroponics(growingplantsinwater). The •Dryad- In this book: aplant-based robot, used as ‘guardians’of aquaticwastefeedsthe plants andthe plants provide a filter for children’s forests. theaquatic life to live in; they form an integrated system. •Dystopia–This is theopposite of Utopia, an unsustainablesociety •Arcology-Derivedfromthe words‘architecture’and ‘ecology’, this wherethe majority of people leadmiserablelives. Within a conceptrefers to aself-sustainingcitythatisdesignedasadensely dystopia, it’s possible that afew people (the wealthiest) mayhave populated, eco-friendlycommunity. averypleasantlife(forashort time)byusingeverythingfor themselves, whileothersmissout. •Biochar-A solidmaterialobtainedfrompyrolysisofbiomass that canbeaddedtosoils,improving fertility, drainageand carbon •Economy–This comesfromthe Greekwords‘oikos’ (home) and storage. ‘nomos’(management) that is,managingthe affairs of your home. Thebuyingand sellingofproductsand services make up an •Biodiversity-Thevarietyofall living things, includingplants, economy. animals, microorganisms andhow they relate to oneanother. Maintainingbiodiversityensures cleanair,water andfertile soils •Ecosystem–Also derives from ‘oikos’–our‘home’system. The andisthe foundationofthe healthy, functioningecosystems upon plants andanimalsthatare foundinaparticular locationare whichall lifedepends. referred to as an ecosystem. Theseplantsand animalsdependon each othertosurvive. Obviouslyan‘economy’ must be part of an •Biomass -Organic material made from plants andanimals, ‘ecosystem’,but this is notthe case at presentwhere theeconomy containingstoredenergyfrom thesun. Biomassisarenewable is instead destroyingecosystems. energy source becausewecan keep growingmore treesand crops. Examples arewood,manureand seaweed. •Ecosystem Services -Beneficialservicesprovidedtohumans by naturalsystems -clean air, water, decomposition of waste, •Biopylon-In this book: agiant artificial photosynthesisstructure. regulation of climate. Includes spiritual andculturalbenefits.

•Bulrushes-In this book, atypeofwind-generating device that •Energy- Energy is definedasthe abilitytodowork.Itiswhat resembles agiant fieldofreeds. movescarsalong theroadand makesaeroplanes fly. Energy is needed forour bodies so that we cangrowand move about and •Capitalism-Asocial, politicaland economic systemwhere a also forplantssotheycan make flowersand fruit. Energy demand country’strade andindustryare controlled by individuals, rather is theamountofenergyneeded to do things. Lowering global than by thegovernment. Examples of things that individualsand energy demandmay be vital to thepreventionoffurther climate companies owninacapitalistsocietyare land,oil andfactories. change.

•CarbonCapture andStorage-Carbon dioxide from power •EnergyStorage-Energy canbestoredfor useatalater time.A stations andfactories is captured andsentthrough apipelineto wind-upclock storespotential energy (in this case mechanical,in underground rock formations whereitcan be storedsafely and thespringtension). permanently(in theory anyway). •Eutrophication- dense growth of plantlifeinanaquatic •CarbonCycle-Carbon is akey componentoflivingsystems, environmente.g.algae followingpollution by excessnutrients andcyclesinand out of theatmosphere. Throughout theearth’s from agriculture. history,ithas fluctuated andextinctions have occurred when therehavebeenanomalies. •Evapotranspiration–Theprocessthatinvolveswater evaporating from soil andplantsintothe atmosphere.Itisintegraltothe water •Catchment- Theareaoflanddrained by ariverand itstributaries. cycle.

•Civilisation-Asocietywithcomplex legal, politicaland religious •Extractivism-Away of lifebased around theextraction of natural organizationsand divisionoflabour. Allcivilisations so farhave resources, such as fossil fuels,minerals,and timber. been unsustainablebecausetheyrequirethe importationofraw materials. •Fossil Fuels-Coal,oil andgas,made from theremains of ancient organismsthatcapturedsunlight throughphotosynthesis, then •Climate- Theaverage of theweather over thelongterme.g.the were buried. UK has acooler climatethanBrazil, despitethe factthatona givenday,itmight be hotter in theUKthanBrazil. •FuelCells -Cellsthatproduce electricity by oxidationoffuel (hydrogenand oxygen or zincand air); foruse in electric cars and •Cloud Shepherd-Inthisbook: asolar-powered airship smaller gadgets e.g. mobile phones.

•Coal-Afossilfuelformedfromlandplantswhichare buried and •Geoengineering—Large scalealterationstothe planet, for transformed over millions of yearsbyheatand pressure. example,restoring foreststoincreasethe amount of carbon drawn from theatmosphere. •Communism- Asocial,political andeconomic systemwhere property,land, oil, etc. areowned by thecommunity as awhole, or thegovernment.

92 •Green Roof - Aroofofabuildingwhichispartiallyorcompletely •Polyculture- Thecultivation of severalspecies of cropsoranimals coveredwithplants. This acts to regulate thebuilding’s in thesamespace.Polyculture tries to imitate nature by creating temperature,air quality, andalsoprovide ahabitat forsomeplants many layers,varying distances between oneother,and different andanimals. varieties of species in oneplace.

•Haber-BoschProcess-This processisthe primarytechnique for •Polyopolis-In this book, an urban area made up of many ‘mi- producingammonia (a compound of nitrogen andhydrogen). cro-cities’separated by greenspace. This artificial nitrogen fixation processwas developedbyGerman chemists FritzHaber andCarlBosch. •PumpedStorage Power Station-Here,water is storedbehind adam.Whenthe waterisreleased, it runs down pipes to turn •HydrogenEnergy-Hydrogen canbeusedasanalternative fuel to aturbine. Theturbineisconnected to ageneratortoproduce powervehicles, or devices like mobile phones. Hydrogen fuel cells electricity. Thewater is then pumped back into thereservoir when (batteries) make electricity. They areveryefficient, butexpensive thereare periodsoflow powerdemand, forexample when thereis to build. When hydrogen is usedfor fuel in acar,water comesout excessenergybeing producedbyother powerstations. of theexhaust pipeinstead of harmful chemicals. •Pyrolysis-Burningsubstances e.g. biomassinthe absenceofoxy- •Hydropolis-In this book, a floating settlement. gen, creating productssuchaschar, gasand oils

•Hydroponics- Growingplantsinwater usingmineralnutrient •Resource-Aperson, asset, material,ormoneywhich canbeused solutions,without theuse of soil. to accomplish agoal.Whenparts of theworld e.g. water, soil, fish stocks, plants andanimalsare regarded as aresource, it usually •Hydropower-Generating energy throughthe powerofwater e.g. means they will be destroyed or notlookedafter. usingdamsand turbines. •Solar Energy-Solarenergyisthe sun’srays(solarradiation) that •Jragn Fligh-Inthisbook: an observationdronelinkedtothe reachthe Earth. This energy canbeconverted into otherforms of operator’svisual cortex via aDREAM interface energy,suchasheatand electricity.

•Meanwhile Space- Useoflandand buildings to provide sought- •Sustainability-Usuallymeant in apositive way- to actinaway after space forcommunalactivities, such as pop-upallotments, that doesn’t regard theplanetasaresource to be used up:“Meet- areasfor community projects or exhibitions. ingthe needsofthe present,without compromisingthe abilityof future generationstomeettheir needs”. •Merantau- An Indonesian concept: youngpeoplegooffto seek their fortune, before returningtobring thebenefits back to their •Tar Sands-Also referred to as oilsandorbituminoussand, tar community. sandsare acombination of clay,sand, water, andbitumen. Tar sandsare mined forthe oilrichbitumen whichisrefinedintooil. •Microalgae-Thereare severalgroupssimilartovascularplants called microalgae.Just like seaweed,microalgae lack true leaves, • Thousand Flowers-Aconcepttaken from research into energy roots, flowers, andother structures. They canbeutilised as a futures: aproposed future scenario whereenergygeneration is source of bioenergythatdoesnot competewithland-based crops. decentralised.Inthisbook, theideahas been expandedtocover areasother than energy. •Monoculture - In agriculture,growing asinglecropoveralarge area.Vulnerabletodisease,requiringhugeenergyand fertiliser •Tidal Energy-Themoon’spull on theEarth resultsintides;i.e. inputs, butefficientatfeeding largenumbers of people. risesand fallsinwater level. Thereare severalwaystoturnthis tidal energy into electricity,includingtidal fences, tidal barrages •Nuclear Fission-Some atomsare unstableand splitapart -termed (like dams)and tidalturbines. Each uses themovementofthe nuclear fission. Theenergyreleasedinmostnuclear reactionsis tides to spin turbines, or electromechanical generators. much largerthanthatfor chemical reactions. •Torrefaction- Aprocessthatconvertsbiomass,e.g.wood,intoa •Nuclear Fusion -This is aprocessinwhich twonucleijointo coal-like material,whichhas better fuel characteristics than the form alarger nucleus, therebygivingoffenergy.Nuclear fusionis original biomass.Torrefaction is amildpyrolysisand occurs at theenergysourcewhichcausesstars to “shine”. temperaturestypicallybetween 200 and320°C.

•Oil - Afossilfuelformedfrommarinemicro-organisms like •Tything- Ahistoriclegal, administrative or territorialunit-a bacteria andphytoplanktonwhichfalltothe seabed andforma grouping of tenhouseholds. liquid trappedinlayersofrock. •Utopia– This is asocietythatisinperfect balance andharmony, •Permaculture- From ‘permanent’and ‘agriculture’-agricultural whereeveryone’sneeds aremet. Forthe purposesofthisbook, a systems that aredesignedtobeself-sufficientand sustainable. utopia wouldbeasustainablesocietywhere humans arelivingin harmonywiththeir surroundingecosystem. •Photosynthesis- Theprocessused by plants andother organisms to convertenergyfromsunlight andcarbondioxide andwater to •Weather- Variations in environmental conditions from daytoday make food. Thefood is made up of sugars andgivesthese plants (see Climate) andorganisms energy to grow.Oxygen is givenoffas awaste product. •WindEnergy-Likeold fashionedwindmills, today’swindtur- binesuse blades to collectthe wind’s energy. Thewind flowsover •Phytoplankton-Phytoplanktonare microscopicplant life floating theblades creating lift,just like aeroplane wings, whichcauses in surface waters andphotosynthesisinglikelandplants, captur- them to turn. Theblades areconnected to adrive shaft that turns inghugeamounts of carbon dioxide from theatmosphereand an electric generatortoproduce electricity. providingalot of our oxygen.

93 Howthis book was created:

Buildingasustainablesocietytoavoid catastrophic climatechangeisthe -Thescenario must developfrom ourexistingworld –soavoidingthe biggestchallenge humanity has ever faced. sci-fi cliché of an apocalypse, then asocietyof‘survivors’ buildinganew worldfromscratch.For example,unlessthere is anew worldwar,itis Throughtheir research, scientistsand engineerswill play akey role. likely that many buildings currentlyinexistencewill still be around in However, thereare toofew opportunities forscientiststocommunicate 2150AD their work to thegeneralpublic. Howtomakeapositive future from theabove? To this end, this projectwas created—a collaborationbetween scientists andengineers,students, artists, writersand school children. Throughworkshops, we askedhundredsofpeopletowrite and drawtheir ideas.Manyparticipantsexpectedthe future to fea- This book developedfromaprojectsupportedbythe RoyalAcademy ture massive disruption anddisaster, although with afew saying of Engineeringentitled‘Dreams of aLow Carbon Future’, ledbyPhD they then expecteda‘techno-utopia’ to be builtfrom theruins. students andstaff at theEPSRC*Centres forDoctoralTraininginLow Carbon Technologies andBioenergy at theUniversityofLeeds. This vision of apositive, sustainable, lowcarbonand equitablesociety wouldthenseem to be wildlyoptimistic. The first project involvedvisualisingdifferentfuture scenarios– some bad, some good.Itbecameclear that most contributors favoured one This bookrepresentsafuturewhere we beat theodds, as imagined by particularpositive future –asustainable, lowcarbonand equitable hundreds of contributors. We took acreative approach,working back worldfeaturing reduceddemandfor energy,use of renewableenergy andforth between theeditors’ideas andthe contributionswereceived technologies, localism, permaculture andre-wilding. We decidedto so as to be both visionaryand responsive. Theeditorsbelieve that in our produce anew book exploring this worldindepth. Therewerecertain societyasawholewestand more chance of constructing arobust(or constraints, as follows: anti-fragile), interestingand inclusivefuturewiththisway of thinking.

-Weare alreadylockedintosevereclimatechangeimpacts:wechose We hope youhaveenjoyed readingthisbook. If youdisagreewiththe a2-3°c global temperature rise whichimplies catastrophic floods, visionpresented here,why don’tyou note down your response?You can droughts, biodiversitylossand mass migration send it to theeditors usingthe addressatthe frontofthisbook, andit maybepostedonthe projectwebsite. -Wechose to featurea4m sea-levelriseby2150AD whichismuchhigh- er than theconsensus IPCC** predictions, but within therangethat some experts have predicted

-Peak oilorequivalent(i.e. voluntary abandonment) is likely to occur

-Barring disasters,global population couldriseto9-10 billionbythe *EPSRC =Engineering andPhysicalSciences Research Council mid 21stcentury **IPCC=IntergovernmentalPanel on ClimateChange

94 KNOWLEDGE AND IMAGINATIONRESOURCES (NON-FICTION)

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