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The Winning of the Carbon War

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The Winning of the Carbon War JEREMY LEGGETT THE WINNING OF THE CARBON WAR POWER AND POLITICS ON THE FRONT LINES OF CLIMATE AND CLEAN ENERGY THE WINNING OF THE CARBON WAR POWER AND POLITICS ON THE FRONT LINES OF CLIMATE AND CLEAN ENERGY JEREMY LEGGETT The Winning of The Carbon War © Jeremy Leggett 2015. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this license, visit http:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, PO Box 1866, Mountain View, CA 94042, USA. This first edition published 2016 by Jeremy Leggett. Colophon Set in Minion Pro, 11pt on 14pt leading. For Aki Humanity is in a race, a kind of civil war. On the light side the believers in a sustainable future based on clean energy fight to save us from climate change. The dark side defends the continuing use of fossil fuels, often careless of the impact it has on the world. Jeremy Leggett fought for the light side for a quarter of a century as it lost battle after battle. Then, in 2013, the tide began to turn. By 2015, it was clear the the war could be won. Leggett’s front-line chronicle tells one person’s story of those turnaround years, culminating in dramatic scenes at the Paris climate summit, and what they can mean for the world. iv “Given how vital developments in energy and climate will be for the future global economy, a front-line chronicle of events as they unfold in the make-or-break year ahead promises to be fascinating. With a past in oil and gas, a present in solar and finance, and two decades of climate campaigning along the way, we can rely on Jeremy Leggett to provide an interesting and insightful perspective.” Richard Branson Founder, Virgin Group “Jeremy’s clear and penetrating eye-witness account of the Paris climate summit captures beautifully the story both of the historic agreement reached and of the understandings on which it is based. It is great fun to read; kind, tough, and often very funny.” Professor Lord Nicholas Stern Chair of the Grantham Research Institute, London School of Economics “This is one of the first books on climate change that I truly could not put down. A brilliant page turner, alternately daringly funny, coldly sobering, starkly terrifying. A deeply rewarding look into the most significant problem we face today – poetic, personal, beautiful and intensely urgent. If you want to understand why fossil fuels may not just tank the environment but might also bring down the world economy, read this book, and – for all of our sakes – read it fast.” Josh Fox Emmy-winning film director “Leggett has a unique vantage point that he shares frankly, openly and with candid humor and humility. I don’t tend to gush about books on climate politics, but I can’t recommend this resource highly enough. I’ve been eagerly reading what actually comes across as a thriller ….and can’t even begin to list all the insights gleaned so far.” Sami Grover Writer and Creative Director, The Change Creation, on treehugger.com v “If you are interested in @COP21 and are not reading Winning the Carbon War by @JeremyLeggett you should be” Tom Carnac Senior Advisor to the Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC “In all my years as an energy analyst in investment banking, I have rarely encountered an entrepreneur with the factual grounding Jeremy Leggett has across the full spectrum of the energy and climate space. From his beginnings in the oil industry to his leadership in campaigning for new clean, green energy, he has a vital message that deserves as wide an audience as possible. We see the signs of what he has predicted beginning to unfurl around us with severe ramifications for the future of the oil industry and fossil fuels.” Mark Lewis Head of European Utilities, Barclays “Jeremy Leggett has been right about climate change longer than just about anyone, and he’s consistently thought of innovative ways to get the message across–here’s one more powerful medium for helping spread the most important message ever.” Bill McKibben Founder, 350.org “One of the crucial themes in Jeremy Leggett’s narrative is shale, on both sides of the Atlantic. As a long-time opponent of fracking, it is fascinating for me to read Jeremy¹s perspectives, particularly given his past life in the oil industry where he has researched shale funded by both BP and Shell – and his current generous sharing of his expertise with British parliamentarians of all political parties.” Caroline Lucas MP Green Party of England and Wales vi “An unusual book by an author with an unusual professional life. I do not know any person who brings together intimate knowledge of relevant fields the way Leggett does. He has not only studied the climate problem scientifically but seen the innermost workings of multilateral climate policy. He also has inside knowledge of fossil energy, especially the oil industry and the prevailing corporate culture. Purely academic scholars lack this expertise.” Prof. Jochen Luhman Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy, Germany “I found it entertaining, informative and almost impossible to put down, like a James Bond adventure it puts you at the heart of the action in the main theatres of the carbon war—US, China, Russia, Germany, Saudi Arabia, and Africa—in solar factories, the Bank of England, World Economics Forum, Occupy camp in London… It’s a real eye opener and a colourful read that makes a complex subject easy to digest.” Nicci Talbot Huffington Post vii Contents Chapter 1 We have good quality assets ..............................................1 Shanghai, 2nd May 2013 ......................................................................1 London, 19th June 2013 ........................................................................3 London, 2nd August 2013 .....................................................................5 Chapter 2 The men behind the wire ...................................................9 Balcombe, 18th August 2013 ................................................................9 Geneva, 28th August 2013................................................................. 13 Tunbridge Wells, 27th September 2013 ............................................. 15 London, 5th October 2013 ................................................................. 18 Chapter 3 Not responsible ................................................................21 Daegu, 14th October 2013 ................................................................. 21 Oslo, 31st October–5th November 2013 ............................................. 24 Amsterdam, 13th November 2013 .................................................... 26 Chapter 4 Comrades in arms ...........................................................29 Istanbul, 25th & 26th November 2013 ............................................... 29 Berlin, 29th & 30th November 2013 .................................................. 30 London and Washington, 20th November 2013 ............................... 33 London and Washington, 10th December 2013 ............................... 36 Chapter 5 If only he had the money .................................................40 New York, 13th January 2014 ........................................................... 40 New York, 15th January 2014 ........................................................... 43 Davos, 22nd–26th January 2014 ........................................................ 46 Chapter 6 He who brings light .........................................................52 Kenya, 3rd February 2014 ................................................................. 52 Oxfordshire, 25th February 2014 ...................................................... 54 Chapter 7 Duty, bubbles and neuroscience .....................................57 Brighton, 25th March 2014 ............................................................... 57 City of London, 31st March 2014 ...................................................... 60 viii Chapter 8 I am here in learning mode .............................................65 London, 24th April 2014 ................................................................... 65 City of London, 8th May 2014........................................................... 69 Stockholm, 13th May 2014 ................................................................ 72 Chapter 9 Doom, boom, or bust ......................................................74 London, 12th June 2014 ..................................................................... 74 London, 2nd July 2014 ....................................................................... 79 London, 7th July 2014 ........................................................................ 81 Online, 10th July 2014 ....................................................................... 83 Chapter 10 Music to my ears ..............................................................85 London, 15th September 2014 ........................................................... 85 Riyadh, 18th September 2014 ............................................................ 89 Chapter 11 We cannot pretend we don’t hear them ...........................92 New York, 21st–26th September 2014 ................................................ 92 Moscow, 14th October 2014 .............................................................. 98 Chapter 12 Seven percent by 2035 ...................................................105 Freiburg, 21st October 2014 ............................................................ 105 London, 24th & 25th October 2014 ................................................
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