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ISSN 2221-2698 Arkhangelsk, Russia DOI 10.17238/Issn2221-2698.2016 ISSN 2221-2698 Arkhangelsk, Russia DOI 10.17238/issn2221-2698.2016.25 Arctic and North. 2016. N 25 2 ISSN 2221-2698 Arctic and North. 2016. N 25. CC BY-SA © Northern (Arctic) Federal University named after M.V. Lomonosov, 2016 © Editorial board of electronic scientific journal “Arctic and North”, 2016 The journal “Arctic and North” is registered at Roskomnadzor as an internet periodical issued in Russian and English, Registration certificate El № FS77-42809, November 26, 2010; at the system of the Russian Science Citation Index (RSCI), license contract № 96-04/2011R, April 12, 2011; Scientific Electronic Library "Сyberleninka" (2016); in the catalogs of international databases: Directory of Open Access Journals — DOAJ (2013); Global Serials Directory Ulrichsweb, USA (2013); NSD, Norway (2015); InfoBase Index, India (2015); ERIH PLUS, Norway (2016). The Journal is issued not less than 4 times per year; 25 issues were published in 2011—2016. The Founder — Northern (Arctic) Federal University named after M.V. Lomonosov (Arkhangelsk, Russia). Editor-in-Chief — Yury F. Lukin, Doctor of Historical Sciences, Professor, Honorary Worker of the higher education of the Russian Federation. All journal issues are available free of charge in Russian and English. Rules and regulations on submission, peer reviews, publication and the Declaration of Ethics are available at: http://narfu.ru/aan/rules/ The Journal is devoted to the scientific articles focused on the Arctic and the North relevant for the following professional degrees: 08.00.00 Economics; 22.00.00 Sociology; 23.00.00 Political science; 24.00.00 Culturology. No payments for publication are collected from authors, including students and post-graduate students. Honorariums are not paid. Аll manuscripts are reviewed. The Editorial Board considers receiving of the manuscripts as an authors’ transfer of rights to be published in “Arctic and North” and be placed in the databases, including RSCI and DOAJ, which assists and promote the publishing activity of the authors and is in authors’ interests. Our English webpage is located at: http://narfu.ru/en/research/journals/ann/ We will be glad to see you among the authors of “Arctic and North”! Arctic and North. 2016. N 25 3 Сontents ECONOMICS, POLITICAL SCIENCЕ, SOCIETY AND CULTURE ЭКОНОМИКА, ПОЛИТИКА, СОЦИУМ И КУЛЬТУРА Sandi Lansetti The “keep in the ground future” of Arctic fossil fuel resources 5 Лансетти С. Будущее арктических запасов ископаемого топлива — оставаться в земле Jukka Nyyssönen A cosmopolitan, Sami-friendly scholar? Väinö Tanner on the best way to treat the Sami 20 Нюссонен Ю. Дружественный саамам учёный-космополит? Вяйнё Таннер о наилучшем способе обращения с саамами Irina S. Astakhova, Liliya R. Zhdanova The geological heritage of academic expeditions on the Arctic coast of European Russia 36 Астахова И.С., Жданова Л.Р. Геологическое наследие академических экспедиций на арктическом побережье Европейской части России Kseniia S. Babenysheva Ethnodemographic processes among the Sami of modern Norway 48 Бабёнышева К.С. Этнодемографические процессы среди саамов современной Норвегии Polina S. Golomidova, Aleksander A. Saburov State policy towards indigenous peoples of Alaska: historical review and contemporary issues 55 Голомидова П.С., Сабуров А.А. Государственная политика в отношении коренных народов Аляски: исторический обзор и современные проблемы Dmitry P. Kondral, Nikolai A. Morozov Studying the Russian Arctic: the experience of political analysis 69 Кондраль Д.П., Морозов Н.А. Изучение Арктической зоны Российской Федерации: опыт политологического анализа Ekaterina S. Kotlova Searching for balance: Swedish ethnic policy model today 76 Котлова Е.С. В поисках баланса: шведская модель этнической политики на современном этапе Olga E. Medvedeva, Marina A. Vakula Technique of the selection of investment projects for elimination of accumulated damage to the environment in the Russian Arctic based on cost-benefit analysis 94 Медведева О.Е., Вакула М.А. Методика отбора инвестиционных проектов ликвидации накопленного вреда окружающей среде в Арктической зоне России на основе анализа затрат и выгод Lia A. Melkaya The possibility of social planning in the aspect of training children-northerners with special needs to independent adult life 107 Мелкая Л.А. Возможности социального проектирования в аспекте подготовки детей-северян с особыми потребностями к взрослой самостоятельной жизни Oleg V. Minchuk Ethnonational policy of the Komi Republic: normative and infrastructural support Минчук О.В. Этнонациональная политика Республики Коми: нормативное и инфраструктурное 119 обеспечение Arctic and North. 2016. N 25 4 Olga O. Smirnova, Svetlana A. Lipina, Elena V. Kudryashova, Tatyana F. Krejdenko, Yulia N. Bogdanova Formation of the support zones in the Arctic: methodology and practice 129 Смирнова О.О., Липина С.А., Кудряшова Е.В., Крейденко Т. Ф., Богданова Ю.Н. Формирование опорных зон в Арктике: методология и практика Flera H. Sokolova Migration processes in the Russian Arctic 137 Соколова Ф.Х. Миграционные процессы в Российской Арктике Nikolay G. Shishatskiy, Elena A. Bryukhanova, Valery S. Efimov, Alexander M. Matveev Strategic positioning of the Arctic region as an object of territorial development (on the example of Khatanga-Anabarsky region) 150 Шишацкий Н.Г., Брюханова Е.А., Ефимов В.С., Матвеев А.М. Стратегическое позиционирование Арктического региона как объекта территориального развития (на примере Хатангско-Анабарского региона) REVIEWS. ОБЗОРЫ Anna M. Gornova Review of fishing in Arctic waters Горнова А.М. О состоянии рыболовства в арктических акваториях 171 Yury F. Lukin Arctic tourism in Russia 185 Лукин Ю.Ф. Арктический туризм в России SUMMARY. РЕЗЮМЕ Authors, abstracts, keywords / Авторы, аннотации, ключевые слова 190 Editorial board of “Arctic and North” journal / Редакционный совет журнала «Арктика и Север» 199 Output data / Выходные данные 201 Arctic and North. 2016. N 25 5 ECONOMICS, POLITICAL SCIENCЕ, SOCIETY AND CULTURE ЭКОНОМИКА, ПОЛИТИКА, СОЦИУМ И КУЛЬТУРА UDC 332.1 + 504 DOI: 10.17238/issn2221-2698.2016.25.5 The “keep in the ground future” of Arctic fossil fuel resources © Sandi Lansetti, PhD student in Science and Management of Climate Change, Department of economics and Department of environmental sciences Università Ca’ Foscari, Venezia. E-mail: [email protected] Abstract. It is extremely important to understand which role Arctic fossil fuel resources will play in the development and geopolitics of the Arctic region. The article analyses the recent trends in the world energy supply with special focus on renewable energy and future demand for fossil fuels. Focusing on the Arctic LNG projects it comes to the conclusion that there is a growing possibility that the majority of Arctic oil and natural gas will be kept in the ground. Such an outcome would strongly influence the sustainable development and geopolitics of the region. Keywords: Arctic fossil fuels, renewable energy, carbon budget, oil and gas demand, transport electrification, Yamal LNG, International cooperation The increased international and media focus on the Arctic region has been until recently highly influenced by its estimated reserves of natural resources, especially oil and gas. The vast majority of actual publications cite the famous 2008 US geological survey [1]. It has increasingly become one of the strongest arguments in favour of the resource exploitation Arctic paradigm due to its high estimates of undiscovered Arctic fossil fuel reserves. There are, however, a series of reasons to believe, as some authors have already extensively discussed this issue [2, pp. 169-193; 3, pp. 103-133; 4, pp. 45-55], that the offshore Arctic oil and gas will not play a crucial role in the economy and geopolitics of the Arctic and in the world energy supply. This, undoubtedly, would lower the economical and geopolitical importance of the region. Some northern areas have been and could be strongly impacted by the developments in the oil and gas sector, but on the wider regional scale, the Arctic oil and gas intensive exploitation has not materialized yet. This is especially true for the offshore sector which could also have the strongest impact on the region’s ecosystem and regional relations due to the harsh environmental conditions and possible border issues which will not be addressed here. The major transformations in the energy market This article will analyze some recent developments especially in the gas sector and propose some additional reasons which would suggest that the Arctic is far from being a place of an energy resources race among the Arctic and adjacent countries. The oil and gas markets have become incredibly flexible with many analysts speaking about a new oil order referring to the fast cycle of Arctic and North. 2016. N 25 6 shale oil1. Similarly, the increasing liquefied natural gas technology adoption has disrupted the long-term pipeline planning system and the bargaining power especially on the side of the suppliers. The remoteness of the North pole region, the difficulties in building infrastructure there and the two more recent step downturns in energy prices, with the last still ongoing in May of 2016, are strong arguments against widespread Arctic resource extraction. The pick oil arguments, which dominated the debate for many years, have been sided by a fierce price competition and rising non conventional supply which does not allow a dynamic of ever increasing oil prices to dominate the energy market. In addition,
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