Universidade De São Paulo Instituto De Energia E Ambiente Programa De Ciência Ambiental-Procam

Total Page:16

File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb

Universidade De São Paulo Instituto De Energia E Ambiente Programa De Ciência Ambiental-Procam UNIVERSIDADE DE SÃO PAULO INSTITUTO DE ENERGIA E AMBIENTE PROGRAMA DE CIÊNCIA AMBIENTAL-PROCAM GINNETH PULIDO GÓMEZ EXPLORACIÓN DE PETRÓLEO EN EL ÁREA DE LA NUEVA FRONTERA COLOMBIA – NICARAGUA: APROXIMACIÓN GEOPOLÍTICA SÃO PAULO 2017 GINNETH PULIDO GÓMEZ EXPLORACIÓN DE PETROLEO EN EL ÁREA DE LA NUEVA FRONTERA COLOMBIA – NICARAGUA: APROXIMACION GEOPOLÍTICA Dissertação de Mestrado apresentada ao Programa de Pós-graduação em Ciência Ambiental do Instituto de Energia e Ambiente da Universidade de São Paulo para a obtenção do título de Mestre em Ciência Ambiental Orientador: Prof. Dr. Wagner Costa Ribeiro VERSÃO ORIGINAL SÃO PAULO 2017 AUTORIZO A REPRODUÇÃO E DIVULGAÇÃO TOTAL OU PARCIAL DESTE TRABALHO, POR QUALQUER MEIO CONVENCIONAL OU ELETRÔNICO, PARA FINS DE ESTUDO E PESQUISA, DESDE QUE CITADA A FONTE. FICHA CATALOGRÁFICA PULIDO-GÓMEZ, Ginneth. Exploração de Petróleo na área da nova fronteira Colômbia-Nicarágua: Aproximação Geopolítica./ Ginnteh Pulido -Gómez; orientador Wagner Costa Ribeiro. – São Paulo, 2017. 138 f : il.; 30 cm. Dissertação (Mestrado em Ciência Ambiental) – Programa de Pós- Graduação em Ciência Ambiental – Instituto de Energia e Ambiente da Universidade de São Paulo. 1. Petróleo. 2. Geopolítica. I. Título. Nome: Pulido Gómez Ginneth Título: Exploração de Petróleo na área da Nova Fronteira Colômbia – Nicarágua: Aproximação Geopolítica. Dissertação de Mestrado apresentada ao Programa de Pós-graduação em Ciência Ambiental do Instituto de Energia e Ambiente da Universidade de São Paulo para a obtenção do título de Mestre em Ciência Ambiental Aprovada em: Banca examinadora: Professor Instituição: Julgamento Assinatura Professor Instituição: Julgamento Assinatura Professor Instituição: Julgamento Assinatura “Me estremecieron mujeres que la historia anotó entre laureles Y otras desconocidas gigantes que no hay libro que las aguante” S. R. Para las mujeres de mi vida, Stella y María José, las más fuertes, por ser increíbles, y porque ambas me enseñaron más de la vida que la vida misma, gracias por aguantarme tanta ausencia Y para Tomás, por ser el más valiente de los niños AGRADECIMIENTOS No se puede empezar una nota de agradecimiento sin pensar en todos los que están lejos y que me dan su fuerza desde la distancia, mi familia, antes que nada, que ha sido el sostén de mi fortaleza en esta travesía. Debo comenzar por Mariajo por su paciencia y comprensión, le agradezco a mi mamá por enseñarme lo que soy, desde la paciencia hasta el corazón sensible que me sirvió para resistir la distancia, a mi papá, por las letras, los chistes, las fotos y por sentirse feliz por su hija, la inmigrante. A Felipe en su más lejano Kazajistán y a Juandi porque sé que siempre nos amaremos y contaremos con nosotros, con el amor por la música que nos unirá hasta siempre, a Tomás le agradezco seguirme, espero que un día tenga alas suficientes par volar sin mí. A mis tías, las Gómez Munévar, en la tierra o en el cielo de las tías, porque les aprendí sin saberlo el poder femenino, la sororidad y el amor. Junto a ellos, los otros amores de la distancia, Jonny, René, Sara Milena y Samuel, cuyas buenas vibras me han hecho persistente. Debo agradecer enormemente a las mujeres que he conocido en este proceso especialmente a Sarah Azevedo, Suzanna Ferreira, Elvira Riba, Suzana Lourenço, Nicole Damasceno, Sandra Regina, y todas las madres que he conocido durante esta experiencia y que optaron por la vida académica, porque entendemos que a veces el trabajo para nosotras es doble o triple, si se quiere. Por supuesto debo incluir a las colombianas maravillosas Maita Muñoz, Verónica Ramírez, Yohanna Villafañez, Laura Román, que saben lo qué significa este proceso de llantos y risas. Junto a ellas los cruspianos, los habitantes del mundo solidario de la USP, Minoti, Brunna, Leidy, Daniel, André, Pedro, Michel, Pedrito, Keti, Bruno, Marina. Entre tantos otros que se me quedan por fuera del texto, pero no del corazón. Agradezco a las personas eventuales que vivieron conmigo de una u otra forma y que me enseñaron a perder, porque con cada despedida conocí el valor de dejar ir para continuar amando, Luisa Hernández, Leslie Zabala, Naldo Pereira, Diego Barros, Annamaria Gianninni, Carolina Toro, Jimena Morena, Marcela Suárez, Mario Díaz Hinojosa, Juliana Damelines, Jerson Zambrano, Julián ‘Lupin’, Chriss Hess, Alex Höpner. Agradezco a la geología en pleno, por el café, la compañía y el amor: Andrés, Santiago, María Paula, María Isabel, y el resto de los que hacen parte de ese mundo hermano. A Valdomiro y sus tres tesoros. A Diego Scalada, cuyas ayudas, correcciones, fuerzas, cervezas y abrazos lo hacen el dueño ad honorem de mis mejores pensamientos, porque hablar o escribir portugués es una inmediata referencia a todo lo que me continua enseñando. Junto a él a todos los dracenenses y agregados Tatu, Tati Marina, Mauro, Nicolau, Rafinha, desde mi primera llegada a Brasil fueron la fuente de buenos momentos. A mi amigo, hermano y niñero Juan Ignacio, por las cenas, los aguacates, por la compañía, por ser la mano que he necesitado. A Alejandro Ospina ‘Yê’, por la compañía, por la música, por la risa, por la geografía, por la casualidad. Quiero agradecer a los profesores que me han llevado por este camino comenzando por mi orientador Wagner Costa Ribeiro, cuyo apoyo, conocimiento y experiencia, me ayudó a consolidar este proceso, a Juan Manuel Díaz, quien me transmitió el interés enorme de estudiar asuntos del mar. A todos los que hicieron parte de mi proceso de aprendizaje en la USP: Ana Paula Fracalanza, Pedro Jacobi, Wanderley Messias da Costa y Wagner Menezes. Al grupo de investigación de geografía política y medio ambiente dirigido por mi orientador, cuyas discusiones fueron esenciales para la construcción de este documento. Debo enviar un abrazo apretado y enfático a las mujeres maravillosas que conocí en él Cinthia, Zeni, Mariana, Livia y Suenia. A la estructura social de la USP, que me garantizó vivienda y alimentación durante todo este tiempo, espero que continúen existiendo los apoyos para que la prevalencia estudiantil sea un hecho constante. Al coral Escuela Comunicantus, y sus directores Marco Antonio Silva Ramos y Susana Igayara, por darme los viernes musicales que necesitaba para estar en paz, junto a ellos, a todos los integrantes de ese lindo juego de voces. Al Centro de Referencia de Danza de São Paulo, por las clases, las salas, la danza, con él a los bailarines de esta ciudad gris. A la USP, al Instituto de Energía y Ambiente (IEE) al departamento de Geografía de la Facultad de Filosofía y Ciencias Humanas (FFLCH), al programa PEC-PG y al CNPq por los apoyos económicos y estructurales concedidos para llevar a cabo este proceso. A la estructura que me permitió a mi hijo acompañarme, La Salinha del CRUSP, al escuela EMEF Desembargador Amorim Lima, el Programa Esporte Talento del CEPE-USP y el programa Curumim del Sesc Pinheiros. A Brasil en pleno, por ser mi segunda casa, porque al igual que Colombia hoy logra llenarme de angustias por la situación conturbada que vive, espero de corazón que lleguen personas más ilustres y conscientes a la silla más importante de la Federación, porque quien ha usurpado ese lugar, no merece de forma alguna reconocimiento, que la violencia no se apodere de esta tierra y que la justicia social aparezca para quedarse. Espero también que la estructura del sistema educativo básico y superior gratuito se fortalezca y que permita que más personas logren formarse en un intento por apaciguar las desigualdades de este mundo. A todas las personas que en el camino amaron a mi hijo, les deseo el doble de lo que le entregaron de corazón a él. Los caminos del verdadero amor no son nunca fáciles. Karl Marx (El Capital. Tomo I, p. 73) RESUMEN PULIDO-GÓMEZ, Ginneth. Exploración de Petróleo en el área de la nueva frontera Colombia-Nicaragua: Aproximación Geopolítica. 2017, 138 f. Disertación (Maestría en Ciencia Ambiental) Programa de posgrado en Ciencia Ambiental - Instituto de Energía y Ambiente (IEE) de la Universidad de São Paulo. São Paulo, 2017 Las fronteras son líneas imaginarias trazadas a partir del resultado de diferentes procesos sociales de índole político, económico o cultural. Generalmente son reconocidas como áreas dinámicas de tensión, especialmente en territorios con herencias coloniales. Entre Colombia y Nicaragua ha existido una histórica tensión fronteriza que incluye el interés por el ejercicio de soberanía en el archipiélago de San Andrés, Providencia y Santa Catalina, y en el área marítima subyacente, en el mar Caribe; dicha frontera fue delimitada por la Corte Internacional de Justicia de La Haya en 2012, como resultado de un proceso de un poco más de una década; lo que redefinió el área susceptible de usufructo en el mar, de ambos países. La cuenca del Caribe occidental, en este marco de tensión fronteriza se posiciona como área de interés del mercado global dado el avance de ambos países en abrir espacios a empresas no nacionales para la concesión de exploración/explotación de hidrocarburos en el mar; es importante considerar que en la región se localiza el canal de Panamá, una de las vías de transporte de mercancías y materias primas más importante del mundo, a la vez que se está gestando la construcción de un segundo canal transoceánico que atravesaría la zona sur de Nicaragua, ambos puntos de importancia geo- estratégica del comercio global. El lugar del petróleo en el panorama energético global, hace que ocupe un lugar destacado en el sistema económico contemporáneo. La inminente disminución de las reservas de combustibles fósiles ha permitido el desarrollo de técnicas de exploración en áreas de mayor profundidad, que incluyen los lechos marinos, denominadas offshore, las cuales se presentan como alternativa a la crisis petrolera. En relación a lo anterior y dada la exhaustiva búsqueda de recursos naturales a lo largo de la historia, especialmente de petróleo, en áreas del planeta diversas, ha desencadenado diferentes crisis, entre ellos impactos socio-ambientales complejos, como el Cambio Climático y la devastación de ecosistemas locales, los cuales merecen un abordaje geopolítico ambiental.
Recommended publications
  • World Oil Exports [01] Angola Some History Production
    The Oil Drum: Europe | World Oil Exports [01] Angola http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/4184 World Oil Exports [01] Angola Posted by Luis de Sousa on July 1, 2008 - 10:00am in The Oil Drum: Europe Topic: Supply/Production Tags: angola, exports, oil exports, original, woe, world oil exports [list all tags] Angola is one of the few oil producing countries with a bright future ahead. Decades of war prevented the country from developing it's energy resources properly, but is now becoming one of the largest world oil exporters in a period of rampant prices. Just as if Fortune decided to compensate Angola for its misfortunes during the XX century. Becoming an OPEC member just recently, Angola is set to build one of the strongest economies in Africa, with its GDP growing over 30% 15% annually (numbers here), one of the highest rates in the world. Hopefully Oil will be just the trigger of a golden era in a country that possesses other important natural resources. 17 diggs digg it Some History To read a not so short History of Angola, click here. Production Colin Campbell first assessed Angola in December of 2003 in ASPO's newsletter 36. Back then it was already clear that the Regular Oil cycle was approaching peak (if not already past it). It was also clear that Deep Water fields were coming strongly on stream promising to more than double the country's production. Using 10 Gb for both Regular Oil and Deep Water ultimates, the best estimate was resulting in a total production peak by 2020 just under 2 Mb/d.
    [Show full text]
  • The Winning of the Carbon War
    JEREMY LEGGETT THE WINNING OF THE CARBON WAR POWER AND POLITICS ON THE FRONT LINES OF CLIMATE AND CLEAN ENERGY THE WINNING OF THE CARBON WAR POWER AND POLITICS ON THE FRONT LINES OF CLIMATE AND CLEAN ENERGY JEREMY LEGGETT The Winning of The Carbon War © Jeremy Leggett 2015. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this license, visit http:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, PO Box 1866, Mountain View, CA 94042, USA. This first edition published 2016 by Jeremy Leggett. Colophon Set in Minion Pro, 11pt on 14pt leading. For Aki Humanity is in a race, a kind of civil war. On the light side the believers in a sustainable future based on clean energy fight to save us from climate change. The dark side defends the continuing use of fossil fuels, often careless of the impact it has on the world. Jeremy Leggett fought for the light side for a quarter of a century as it lost battle after battle. Then, in 2013, the tide began to turn. By 2015, it was clear the the war could be won. Leggett’s front-line chronicle tells one person’s story of those turnaround years, culminating in dramatic scenes at the Paris climate summit, and what they can mean for the world. iv “Given how vital developments in energy and climate will be for the future global economy, a front-line chronicle of events as they unfold in the make-or-break year ahead promises to be fascinating.
    [Show full text]
  • LUZ Y FUERZA DEL PUEBLO&Qu
    SCUOLA DI DOTTORATO UNIVERSITÀ DEGLI STUDI DI MILANO-BICOCCA "Riccardo Massa" Department for Human Sciences PhD program in Cultural and Social Anthropology Cycle XXXI in joint – supervision with École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales PhD program in Social Sciences FIGHTING FOR AND FIGHTING THROUGH ELECTRICITY. AN ETHNOGRAPHY OF THE CIVIL RESISTANCE MOVEMENT "LUZ Y FUERZA DEL PUEBLO", FROM CHIAPAS, MEXICO Phd Candidate: Cao Umberto Registration number: 803149 Tutor: prof. Alice Bellagamba Co-tutor: prof. Valeria Siniscalchi Coordinator: prof. Alice Bellagamba ACADEMIC YEAR 2017-18 Acknowledgments This work has been realized thanks to a Ph.D. Scholarship granted by the University of Milano Bicocca, for the period November 2015 – October 2018. The research has also counted on the support of: the École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales, the Centre Norbert Elias (UMR 8562), and the IRIS Global Studies at PSL - Paris Sciences et Lettres. During the period October 2016 – February 2018, who writes has been Visiting Ph.D. Student at the CIMSUR – Centro de Investigaciones Multidisciplinarias sobre Chiapas y la Frontera Sur, of the UNAM – Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México. The views and opinions expressed in this work belong solely to the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of any of the aforementioned institutions. The author's deepest thanks go to: the academic supervisors of this work – professors Alice Bellagamba in Milan, Valeria Siniscalchi in Marseille, and José Rubén Orantes García in San Cristóbal de las Casas; the external rapporteurs, professors Alessandro Mancuso and Filippo Zerilli; the language proofreader Sheriff Kora; all persons in Sardinia, Italy, France, and Mexico, that in any form and at any extent have supported and accompanied him during the complex but wonderful years of this doctorate; and above all, the people of Luz y Fuerza del Pueblo.
    [Show full text]
  • ISSN 2221-2698 Arkhangelsk, Russia DOI 10.17238/Issn2221-2698.2016
    ISSN 2221-2698 Arkhangelsk, Russia DOI 10.17238/issn2221-2698.2016.25 Arctic and North. 2016. N 25 2 ISSN 2221-2698 Arctic and North. 2016. N 25. CC BY-SA © Northern (Arctic) Federal University named after M.V. Lomonosov, 2016 © Editorial board of electronic scientific journal “Arctic and North”, 2016 The journal “Arctic and North” is registered at Roskomnadzor as an internet periodical issued in Russian and English, Registration certificate El № FS77-42809, November 26, 2010; at the system of the Russian Science Citation Index (RSCI), license contract № 96-04/2011R, April 12, 2011; Scientific Electronic Library "Сyberleninka" (2016); in the catalogs of international databases: Directory of Open Access Journals — DOAJ (2013); Global Serials Directory Ulrichsweb, USA (2013); NSD, Norway (2015); InfoBase Index, India (2015); ERIH PLUS, Norway (2016). The Journal is issued not less than 4 times per year; 25 issues were published in 2011—2016. The Founder — Northern (Arctic) Federal University named after M.V. Lomonosov (Arkhangelsk, Russia). Editor-in-Chief — Yury F. Lukin, Doctor of Historical Sciences, Professor, Honorary Worker of the higher education of the Russian Federation. All journal issues are available free of charge in Russian and English. Rules and regulations on submission, peer reviews, publication and the Declaration of Ethics are available at: http://narfu.ru/aan/rules/ The Journal is devoted to the scientific articles focused on the Arctic and the North relevant for the following professional degrees: 08.00.00 Economics; 22.00.00 Sociology; 23.00.00 Political science; 24.00.00 Culturology. No payments for publication are collected from authors, including students and post-graduate students.
    [Show full text]
  • Update on Megaproject Megaproject
    The Oil Drum | Update on Megaproject Megaproject http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3347 Update on Megaproject Megaproject Posted by Stuart Staniford on December 10, 2007 - 11:00am Topic: Supply/Production Tags: megaprojects, peak oil, plateau [list all tags] New liquids capacity with first oil in each year as estimated from Petroleum Review megaproject reports (last available estimate in each case), and interim estimates from Wikipedia table as of December 10th, 2007. Error bars on Petroleum Review figures are as documented in Is the Decline of Base Production Accelerating. The Wikipedia Oil Megaprojects task force (Khebab, Ace, and I) has been busy over the last few weeks. With some assistance from helpful strangers, we have been ploughing through press releases and annual reports, adding projects to the Wikipedia page on Oil Megaprojects. I introduced this project two weeks ago, and today I want to give an interim progress report. As of now, we've reached about 350 citations used in collating the information. I have mainly been working on the past - the years 2003-2006 - while the years from 2007 onwards have mainly been handled by Ace and Khebab (though there is some crossover both ways). The 2003-2006 projects, of which there are currently 108, depend on about 140 citations. In attempting to assure completeness and quality of the list, I have reviewed the 2003-2006 annual reports, and/or all press releases, for the following companies: Anadarko Apache Page 1 of 7 Generated on September 1, 2009 at 2:51pm EDT The Oil Drum | Update on Megaproject
    [Show full text]
  • Peak Oil Strategic Management Dissertation
    STRATEGIC CHOICES FOR MANAGING THE TRANSITION FROM PEAK OIL TO A REDUCED PETROLEUM ECONOMY BY SARAH K. ODLAND STRATEGIC CHOICES FOR MANAGING THE TRANSITION FROM PEAK OIL TO A REDUCED PETROLEUM ECONOMY BY SARAH K. ODLAND JUNE 2006 ORIGINALLY SUBMITTED AS A MASTER’S THESIS TO THE FACULTY OF THE DIVISION OF BUSINESS AND ACCOUNTING, MERCY COLLEGE IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION, MAY 2006 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS AND CHARTS v LIST OF TABLES vii PREFACE viii INTRODUCTION ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM 1 PART I THE BIG ROLLOVER: ONSET OF A PETROLEUM DEMAND GAP AND SWITCH TO A SELLERS’ MARKET CHAPTER 1 WHAT”S OIL EVER DONE FOR YOU? (AND WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF IT STOPPED DOING IT?) 5 Oil: Cheap Energy on Demand - Oil is Not Just a Commodity - Heavy Users - Projected Demand Growth for Liquid Petroleum - Price Elasticity of Oil Demand - Energy and Economic Growth - The Dependence of Productivity Growth on Expanding Energy Supplies - Economic Implications of a Reduced Oil Supply Rate CHAPTER 2 REALITY CHECK: TAKING INVENTORY OF PETROLEUM SUPPLY 17 The Geologic Production of Petroleum - Where the Oil Is and Where It Goes - Diminishing Marginal Returns of Production - Hubbert’s Peak: World Oil Production Peaking and Decline - Counting Oil Inventory: What’s in the World Warehouse? - Oil Resources versus Accessible Reserves - Three Camps: The Peak Oilers, Official Agencies, Technology Optimists - Liars’ Poker: Got Oil? - Geopolitical Realities of the Distribution of Remaining World
    [Show full text]
  • Recent Developments a 'Unique' Victory for Iranians: Rouhani
    WWW.TEHRANTIMES.COM I N T E R N A T I O N A L D A I L Y 16 Pages Price 20,000 Rials 1.00 EURO 4.00 AED 39th year No.13242 Sunday OCTOBER 28, 2018 Aban 6, 1397 Safar 18, 1440 Larijani congratulates Zionist regime seeks Esteghlal set to sack Director Ghaffarzadeh new Iraqi PM division among Muslim Winfried Schaefer: working on co-production 2 countries 2 report 15 between Iran and Turkey 16 Iran-EU financial channel to be See page 2 opened soon: CBI governor ECONOMY TEHRAN – Governor of bilateral monetary treaty between the deskof the Central Bank of two sides. The treaty aims to help Iranian Iran (CBI) announced on Saturday that a and European companies and entrepre- new financial channel is soon to be opened neurs to establish and maintain business between Iran and the EU nations, Tasnim relations with each other. news agency reported. EU powers, namely France, Germany Abdolnaser Hemmati made the announce- and Britain, and Iran have been in talks ment on social media, “The details of the Euro- over launching this payments channel pean Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) for trade for months, which would enable Euro- between Iran and the EU were discussed at pean companies to trade with Iran as a meeting in Brussels last week.” part of efforts to defy U.S. sanctions The official emphasized that the dis- and keep alive a landmark nuclear deal cussed financial channel is in fact some sort with Tehran. WTTC ranks Iran’s tourism 20th Recent developments among 185 in 2011-17 TOURISM TEHRAN — Iran’s investment that is based on absolute growth deskbudding travel sector has seen between 2011 and 2017.
    [Show full text]
  • The Major Greenhouse Gases
    A New Kind of Sharing A New Kind of Sharing Why We Can't Ignore Global Environmental Change June D. Hall and Arthur J. Hanson INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH CENTRE Ottawa • Cairo • Dakar• Johannesburg• Montevideo• Nairobi New Delhi• Singapore Preface We live in a time of great uncertainty, of dazzling political change, and of shifting economic reality. In the twinkling of an eye we have witnessed the fall of the Berlin Wall, the collapse of the Soviet Union, the end of the Cold War, and real progress toward nuclear disarmament. We have seen the settlement of many long-standing civil wars, the first steps toward the dismantling of apartheid, and a new status for the United Nations. But the heralded "peace dividend" may be diverted to brush fires else­ where, as ethnie rivalries, doused during the Cold War, are reignited. In Canada, we face the possible breakup of the country, economic malaise, and the decline of our traditional sources of income. We watch the parallel rise to prominence of Pacifie Rim countries and the launching of an integrated European economy in 1992. In the midst of all this, it would be tempting to close our eyes to the problems of other regions, and especially to forget about the struggles of developing nations outs ide the mainstream of our daily thoughts and actions. In preparation for the 20th anniversary of Canada's Interna­ tional Development Research Centre (IDRC) in 1990, several studies were commissioned on the impact on Canada of change in the countries we have corne to call the South. This book is one of the products of this effort.
    [Show full text]
  • Wikipedia Megaproject Update (August 2008)
    The Oil Drum | Wikipedia Megaproject Update (August 2008) http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4419 Wikipedia Megaproject Update (August 2008) Posted by Sam Foucher on August 25, 2008 - 8:42am Topic: Supply/Production Tags: megaprojects, wikipedia [list all tags] This is an update on the Wikipedia Oil Megaproject Database maintained by the Oil Megaprojects task force (Ace, Stuart Staniford, myself and many others). The database contains now more than 440 separate entries and is growing everyday. The derived net new capacity (i.e. once depletion from existing production is included) is around 1.5 mbpd for 2008 and 2009 after which depletion may dominate. Possible future supply capacity scenario for crude oil and NGL based on the Wikipedia Oil Megaproject database. The resource base post-2002 decline rate is a linearly increasing rate from 0% to 4.5% between 2003 and 2008 then constant at 4.5% afterward. The decline rate for each annual addition is 4.5% after first Page 1 of 6 Generated on September 1, 2009 at 2:20pm EDT The Oil Drum | Wikipedia Megaproject Update (August 2008) http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4419 2003 and 2008 then constant at 4.5% afterward. The decline rate for each annual addition is 4.5% after first year. The observed data points are the monthly crude oil + NGL estimates from the EIA. Here is the last compilation of new supply peak contributions stacked according to their projected first oil year: update: Ace has also produced this chart yesterday (Click to enlarge): Below is the evolution of this chart since the database creation.
    [Show full text]
  • Peak Oil and Australia's National Infrastructure
    1 PEAK OIL AND AUSTRALIA’S NATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE SUBMISSION TO INFRASTRUCTURE AUSTRALIA Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas October 2008 We need to leave oil before it leaves us. Dr Fatih Birol, Chief Economist, International Energy Agency, 2008 The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to its close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences. Winston Churchill, 1936 Peak Oil and Australia’s National Infrastructure ASPO-Australia i Contents Contents i About ASPO-Australia ii Executive Summary iii Introduction 1 The Peak in World Oil Production 1 Implications for the World Economy 7 Socio-economic Implications for Australia 8 Infrastructure Australia’s Goals and Strategic Priorities 10 Energy Infrastructure 11 Transport Infrastructure 12 Conclusion 15 List of Figures 1. World Oil Production vs Discovery, Regular Conventional Oil 1 2. World Oil & Gas Depletion Profiles, ASPO 2007 Base Case 3 3. World Oil Production, 1980-2008 4 4. Oil Megaprojects Database, Moderate Decline Rate Scenario 5 5. World Oil Exports, 1965-2020 6 6. Australian Oil Production vs Demand, 1970-2030 9 Peak Oil and Australia’s National Infrastructure ASPO-Australia ii About ASPO-Australia ASPO-Australia is a non-partisan network of professionals working to reduce Australia’s oil vulnerability, by bringing the probabilities, risks and opportunities presented by peak oil to the attention of decision-makers. Our membership includes scientists, geologists, engineers, transport and urban planners and a wide range of other professionals, comprising working groups focusing on the implications of peak oil on different sections of the community and the economy.
    [Show full text]
  • Crude Oil and Liquids Capacity Additions: 2011-2015
    The Oil Drum | Crude Oil and Liquids Capacity Additions: 2011-2015 http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7785 Crude Oil and Liquids Capacity Additions: 2011-2015 Posted by Sam Foucher on April 13, 2011 - 8:39pm This is a guest post by J. Michael Bodell and myself. Michael is currently an energy consultant operating as Aperio Energy Research. Mr. Bodell is the in-house expert on oil and natural gas market fundamentals for Strategic Energy Research & Capital, LLC, a specialized brokerage and investment firm. He worked for CERA from 2005 to 2007 and was the architect and lead project manager for a two-phase multi-client report, "Diminishing Returns: The Cost of North American Gas Supply in an Unconventional Era," a body of work that evaluated the all-in, full- cycle cost structure of about 275 supply basins. In 2008 as a consultant, he was the lead author on a CERA decision brief research paper, "Natural Gas Yield Curve: A Powerful Tool for Natural Gas Market Analysis." Prior to CERA and SERC, Mr. Bodell was the strategic planning manager for Unocal Midstream & Trade, where he lead a team to perform oil, gas and power market fundamentals and strategy evaluation in underground natural gas storage development. This analysis is designed to demonstrate why we believe that productive capacity relative to consumption will be sufficiently tight over the next several years to elevate crude prices to the investment cost of the marginal unit, about $100 per barrel. In fact, if annual non-OECD demand continues to grow at 3.5 percent or 1.4 Mb/d per annum, we expect another episode of deficit comparative inventory that will elevate spot prices above this mid-cycle price.
    [Show full text]
  • Peak Oil and Our Future How Energy Depletion Will Change Our Lives
    Peak Oil and Our Future How Energy Depletion Will Change Our Lives by Doug Craft [email protected] Updated March 2013 © 2013Charles Douglas Craft Image Sources (ASPO Spain 2002, DOE 2004, EIA 2007b) Peak Oil and Our Future How Energy Depletion Will Change Our Lives by Doug Craft [email protected] Doug's Resume Art: http://www.dougcraftfineart.com Original June 2007 – Updated March 2013 © 2013 Charles Douglas Craft SUMMARY Peak Oil and declining energy supplies represent the most serious crisis we have ever faced as a species. Current world population and our relatively luxurious way of life in America are completely dependent on cheap and readily available energy. Our civilization has developed over the past 150 years because we have discovered and exploited abundant – but finite – fossil fuels for cheap energy. Coal, oil, and natural gas were formed millions of years ago, and our use of this one-time planetary energy endowment has significantly increased food production and has led to exponential population growth. Cheap energy has produced social progress and technological wonders, but it has also allowed our population to expand seriously beyond the ability of the earth's natural (non-fossil fuel) carrying capacity. Production of all finite natural resources over time follows a bell-shaped curve of increasing production, peaking maximum production, and then decreasing production. Unfortunately, this behavior is a fundamental property of nature and the laws of thermodynamics. While there's a large amount of underground oil remaining in the world, we have already used the higher quality and easy to produce half of known reserves and are at or very near the ultimate peak of world production – Peak Oil.
    [Show full text]