Scalability of the Air Transportation System and Development of Multi-Airport Systems: A Worldwide Perspective by Philippe A. Bonnefoy B. Ing., Mechanical Engineering, École Polytechnique de Montréal, Canada, 2002 S.M., Aeronautics & Astronautics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2005 Submitted to the engineering systems division in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY at the MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY June 2008 2008 Philippe A. Bonnefoy, All rights reserved. The author hereby grants to MIT the permission to reproduce and to distribute publicly paper and electronic copies of this thesis document in whole or in part. Signature of Author: ______________________________________________________ Philippe A. Bonnefoy Engineering Systems Division May 30th 2008 Certified by: _____________________________________________________________ R. John Hansman, Professor Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics and Engineering Systems Thesis Supervisor Certified by: _____________________________________________________________ Cynthia Barnhart, Professor Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Engineering Systems Certified by: _____________________________________________________________ Richard de Neufville, Professor Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Engineering Systems Certified by: _____________________________________________________________ Amedeo Odoni, Professor Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics and Civil and Environmental Engineering Accepted by: ____________________________________________________________ Richard Larson, Professor Engineering Systems Division Chair, Engineering Systems Division Education Committee [Page Intentionally Left Blank] 2 of 442 SCALABILITY OF THE AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM AND DEVELOPMENT OF MULTI-AIRPORT SYSTEMS: A WORLDWIDE PERSPECTIVE by Philippe A. Bonnefoy Submitted to the Engineering Systems Division on May 30th 2008 in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor in Philosophy in Engineering Systems ABSTRACT ith the growing demand for air transportation and the limited ability to increase Wcapacity at some key points in the air transportation system, there are concerns that in the future the system will not scale to meet demand. This situation will result in the generation and the propagation of delays throughout the system, impacting passengers’ quality of travel and more broadly the economy. This thesis proposes the investigation of the mechanisms by which the air transportation system has scaled to meet demand in the past and is expected to do so in the future using a multi-level engineering systems approach. The air transportation system was first analyzed at the U.S. national level using network abstractions. In order to investigate limits in scaling of the U.S. air transportation network, theories of scale-free and scalable networks were used. It was found that the U.S. air transportation network was not scale-free due to capacity constraints at major airports, also preventing it from being scalable. However, the construction and analysis of a new network for which sets of two or more significant airports that serve passenger traffic in a metropolitan region (i.e. multi-airport systems) were aggregated into single nodes showed that it was scale-free and scalable. These results were also supported by a time series analysis of airport and multi-airport system growth. These analyses demonstrated the importance of regional level scaling mechanisms (i.e. development of 3 of 442 multi-airport systems) in the ability of the air transportation system to adapt and scale to meet demand. Given the importance of multi-airport systems, an in-depth multiple-case study analysis of 59 multi-airport systems worldwide was performed. This analysis was used to develop a feedback model that captures the fundamental processes that govern the evolution of multi-airport systems. Multi-airport systems were found to evolve according to two fundamental mechanisms: (1) the construction of new airports and (2) the emergence of secondary airports through the use of existing non-utilized airports. Several differences and similarities in the occurrence of these dynamics were identified across world regions. It was found that in the United States and Europe, the construction of new large airports occurred prior to or during World War II and to a minor extent during the 1960s and 1970s. More recently, significant limitations to the development of new airports (e.g. opposition from local communities) and changes in the airline industry (e.g. emergence and growth of low-cost carriers) led multi-airport systems in the United States and Europe to evolve through the emergence of secondary airports. In the Asia-Pacific region, multi-airport systems have predominantly evolved through the construction of new airports, due to fewer available airports, high projections of demand and weaker opposition to the construction of airports. The analyses and insights from this thesis were also used to analyze and better understand the evolution of future multi-airport systems and provide recommendations for infrastructure management policies and multi-airport system development strategies. In the United States and in Europe, there is the need to protect non-utilized exiting airport infrastructure (both civil and military airports) that can later be used to accommodate demand through the emergence of secondary airports. In parts of Asia where the existing under-utilized airport infrastructure is weak and where projections of high volume of demand -with high uncertainty- are high, there is the need to apply a dynamic approach to develop multi-airport systems. This approach includes actions such as reserving land area for future airport development and keeping original airports open since this option has proven to be useful and successful in the other regions of the world (i.e. United States and Europe). In some parts of Asia, such as India, where the military 4 of 442 airport infrastructure is more developed than in other parts, there is also the need, as in the United States and Europe, to protect these airports since they may become future secondary airports following the airport status conversion dynamics that were observed in Europe. Doctoral Committee: R. John Hansman (Thesis Supervisor) Title: Professor of Aeronautics & Astronautics and Engineering Systems Cynthia Barnhart Title: Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Engineering Systems Richard de Neufville Title: Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Engineering Systems Amedeo Odoni Title: Professor of Aeronautics and Astronautics and Civil and Environmental Engineering 5 of 442 [Page Intentionally Left Blank] 6 of 442 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Firstly, sincerest thanks to my research advisor Professor R. John Hansman for giving me the opportunity to work with and learn from him throughout the course of my research journey at MIT. I also wish to thank my other doctoral committee members; Professor Cynthia Barnhart, Professor Richard de Neufville and Professor Amedeo Odoni from MIT for sharing their incredible knowledge and experience and for their valuable insights and feedback. Thank you to the sponsors of my research; the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada. I wish to thank Prof. Alexandre Bayen from Berkeley University for his help in accessing ETMS data and Dr. Alexander Zock from the European Center for Aviation Development (ECAD) in Darmstadt, Germany for sharing insights into the European perspective of this research topic and OAG data. Thanks also to my colleagues and friends from the MIT International Center for Air Transportation for their feedback on my research and their much appreciated collaboration and friendship over the years, including Richard Cleaz-Savoyen, Jonathan Histon, Masha Ishutkina, Aleksandra Mozdzanowska, Tom & Hayley Reynolds, Laurence Vigeant-Langlois and Roland Weibel. On a more personal level, I wish to thank my cello teacher, Professor Arnold Friedman, for his understanding and patience in accommodating my busy PhD schedule during the last three years and for allowing me to think about and work on different scales than air transportation system scales. Greatest thanks of all go to my family. To my parents, Bernard and Claude, and to my siblings, Alexandra and Jean-Charles, for their continuing encouragements, help and support throughout all these years. Sincerest thanks to Noëlly and Patrick. Finally, my deepest thanks go to my wife, Emilie, for always supporting and believing in me! 7 of 442 [Page Intentionally Left Blank] 8 of 442 TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................................3 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................................................................................7 TABLE OF CONTENTS ..............................................................................................................9 LIST OF FIGURES ...................................................................................................................15 LIST OF TABLES .....................................................................................................................23 ACRONYMS & ABBREVIATIONS ............................................................................................25