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Chinese Aviation Revealed Fly by Wire How Quick a Recovery? U.S./UK Hypersonic Thresher for All

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The U.S. Marine Corps is recommending deactivation of three 32 aviation units.

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COMMERCIAL AVIATION 21 | The aerospace supply chain’s worst falloff ever FEATURES 39 | FARA downselect gives U.S. Army 23 | Mitsubishi Aircraft flies the first armed scout configuration options SpaceJet of revised design 14 | Hypersonic Threshold The UK confirms a new hypersonic 40 | As pandemic rages, ULA delivers 24 | Domestic networks provide a weapon project with the U.S. final AEHF satellite into orbit safety net for Asian carriers leveraging decades of expertise PROPULSION 24 | Chinese airline domestic capacity 18 | Life Support 42 | Hydrogen gains renewed interest, responds to policy Differing levels of support for the but challenges remain SPACE world’s airlines and aerospace HYPERSONICS 28 | OneWeb goes bankrupt after companies threaten to distort 44 | HyperSpace unveils hypersonic prime backer exits amid pandemic competitive dynamics engine concept tests 30 | NASA picks tops priorities as its 26 | Point/Counterpoint 46 | Aircraft developer Hermeus tests a centers shut down Will China’s aviation sector scaled engine to Mach 5 dominate or recede after the DEFENSE COVID-19 crisis passes? UNMANNED AVIATION 34 | New contenders emerge for the 50 | USMC assesses eVTOL potential U.S. Army’s intel fleet 32 | Pacific Pivot in unmanned air logistics The U.S. Marine Corps’ proposed 36 | GA-ASI adapts the Gray Eagle for force design changes may affect CARGO the Future Vertical Lift future aircraft buys in the next decade 52 | Cargo operators work together for 37 | South Korea’s KF-X radar sustainability gains prototype nears ground testing 48 | Fly by Wire for All U.S. startup Skyryse develops a EDITORIAL 38 | Tempest accelerates toward end- FBW retrofit for a wide range of 58 | A straightforward code of conduct of-year decision milestone light aircraft and helicopters for the aviation industry’s recovery

ON THE COVER DIGITAL EXTRAS The U.S. Marine Corps has proposed a massive force structure shift, the largest for the amphibious force in nearly Access exclusive online two decades, as it focuses attention on the Pacific. A number of squadrons and groups would be deactivated, and features from articles the planned purchase of aircraft including the CH-53K, being developed to replace the CH-53E, could be curtailed. accompanied by this icon. Pentagon Editor Lee Hudson’s report begins on page 32. U.S. Navy photo. Aviation Week publishes a digital edition every week. Read it at AviationWeek.com/AWST

AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 3 Editor-In-Chief Joseph C. Anselmo [email protected] Executive Editors Jen DiMascio (Defense and Space) [email protected] Jens Flottau (Commercial Aviation) [email protected] Graham Warwick (Technology) [email protected] Editors Lindsay Bjerregaard, Sean Broderick, Michael Bruno, Bill Carey, Thierry Dubois, William Garvey, Ben Goldstein, Lee Hudson, Irene Klotz, Helen Massy- Beresford, Jefferson Morris, Guy Norris, Tony Osborne, Bradley Perrett, James Pozzi, Adrian Schofield, Lee Ann Shay, Steve Trimble Chief Aircraft Evaluation Editor Fred George Director, Editorial and Online Production Michael O. Lavitt Associate Managing Editor Andrea Hollowell Art Director Lisa Caputo Artists Thomas De Pierro, Rosa Pineda, Colin Throm Copy Editors Jack Freifelder, Arturo Mora, Natalia Pelayo, Andy Savoie Production Editors Audra Avizienis, Theresa Petruso Contributing Photographer Joseph Pries Director, Digital Content Strategy Rupa Haria Content Marketing Manager Rija Tariq Data & Analytics Director, Forecasts and Aerospace Insights Brian Kough Senior Manager, Data Operations/Production Terra Deskins Manager, Military Data Operations Michael Tint Editorial Offices 2121 K Street, NW, Suite 210, Washington, D.C. 20037 Phone: +1 (202) 517-1100 GoGo beyondbeyond thethe newsnews ofof thethe 605 Third Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10158 Phone: +1 (212) 204-4200 dayday withwith AviationAviation WWeekeek Bureau Chiefs Auckland IntelligenceIntelligence Network’sNetwork’s Adrian [email protected] Market Brieﬁ ngs. Beijing Bradley Perrett [email protected] Cape Canaveral These sector-specifi c intelligence Irene Klotz [email protected] Chicago briefi ngs empower busy Lee Ann Shay [email protected] executives to stay-ahead of the Frankfurt market, identify opportunities and Jens Flottau [email protected] Houston drive revenue. Mark Carreau [email protected] London Tony Osborne [email protected] Los Angeles LEARN MORE: Guy Norris [email protected] aviationweek.com/marketbrieﬁ ngs Lyon Thierry Dubois [email protected] Moscow Maxim Pyadushkin [email protected] Paris Helen Massy-Beresford [email protected] Washington Jen DiMascio [email protected] Wichita Molly McMillin [email protected]

President, Aviation Week Network Gregory Hamilton Managing Director, Intelligence & Data Services Anne McMahon

4 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST P C

Editor-In-Chief Joseph C. Anselmo [email protected] Executive Editors Jen DiMascio (Defense and Space) [email protected] How can we help you navigate, recover and grow? Jens Flottau (Commercial Aviation) [email protected] Graham Warwick (Technology) [email protected] Editors Lindsay Bjerregaard, Sean Broderick, The daunting challenges that currently face humanity will Michael Bruno, Bill Carey, Thierry Dubois, William Garvey, Ben Goldstein, Lee Hudson, Irene Klotz, Helen Massy- leave an indelible mark, but there will come a point when Beresford, Jefferson Morris, Guy Norris, Tony Osborne, the COVID-19 crisis begins to fade and we adjust to life in Bradley Perrett, James Pozzi, Adrian Schofield, Lee Ann Shay, Steve Trimble the aftermath of this pandemic. Chief Aircraft Evaluation Editor Fred George The Aviation Week Network has helped to keep our industry abreast of global Director, Editorial and Online Production Michael O. Lavitt Associate Managing Editor Andrea Hollowell developments during every major crisis since we launched the fi rst edition of Art Director Lisa Caputo Aviation and Aeronautical Engineering on Aug. 1, 1916, in the middle of the Artists Thomas De Pierro, Rosa Pineda, Colin Throm World War I. Copy Editors Jack Freifelder, Arturo Mora, And today — more than at any point in our history — the Aviation Week Natalia Pelayo, Andy Savoie Network is uniquely positioned to help the world’s aviation community make Production Editors Audra Avizienis, Theresa Petruso sense of seemingly overwhelming challenges. Contributing Photographer Joseph Pries Director, Digital Content Strategy Rupa Haria Recent additions of CAPA, ASM and Routes to our team mean that we have the entire information spectrum covered in Content Marketing Manager Rija Tariq all regions, from daily news to detailed analysis from the industry’s most experienced and connected team of experts, a Data & Analytics unique portfolio of data and forecasts and all forms of face-to-face and digital events. The Aviation Week Network can Director, Forecasts and Aerospace Insights Brian Kough help the industry through the coming weeks and months by supporting situational awareness, critical decision-making Senior Manager, Data Operations/Production and, ultimately, a return to growth. Terra Deskins Manager, Military Data Operations Michael Tint We are committed to action and are introducing more robust ways for you to know, predict and connect as we all Editorial Offices navigate the crisis and position for the future. 2121 K Street, NW, Suite 210, Washington, D.C. 20037 Phone: +1 (202) 517-1100 Know. Predict. Connect. 605 Third Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10158 GoGo beyondbeyond thethe newsnews ofof thethe The fi rst step has been about situational awareness as the crisis unfolds and morphs every day around the world: Phone: +1 (212) 204-4200 dayday withwith AviationAviation WWeekeek Bureau Chiefs ● So far, our global team of aerospace journalists and analysts have produced more than 4,000 articles, podcasts IntelligenceIntelligence Network’sNetwork’s Auckland and news briefs covering the crisis, diving deep to help each of our customer communities: Air Transport, Adrian [email protected] Defense & Space, Aerospace, Business Aviation and MRO. Market Briefi ngs. Beijing Bradley Perrett [email protected] ● We have launched a curated landing page to help you navigate that content across our portfolio along with the Cape Canaveral fi rst of an expert-webinar series to share predictions, advice, viewpoints and best practices. These sector-specifi c intelligence Irene Klotz [email protected] Chicago See the landing page: AviationWeek.com/COVID19 briefi ngs empower busy Lee Ann Shay [email protected] executives to stay-ahead of the Frankfurt Register for our webinar series: AviationWeek.com/COVID19/webinar market, identify opportunities and Jens Flottau [email protected] Houston At the same time, we are ramping up our analytical and forward-looking intelligence and data. Finally, we are drive revenue. Mark Carreau [email protected] pursuing innovative ways to reestablish buyer-seller relationships in the absence of face-to-face platforms London across the aviation community. Tony Osborne [email protected] Los Angeles There is much, much more to come. Is it helpful? What can we do better? LEARN MORE: Guy Norris [email protected] aviationweek.com/marketbriefi ngs Lyon I’d love to hear from you. Thierry Dubois [email protected] Moscow As a recent Aviation Week editorial said: “This is without doubt the greatest crisis aviation has faced since the dawn Maxim Pyadushkin [email protected] of the commercial jet age more than six decades ago....The coming days will be dark, but rest assured the industry Paris will recover and once again prosper.” The Aviation Week Network is proud to stand alongside our partners during this Helen Massy-Beresford [email protected] unprecedented period of challenge, helping to keep the market informed and focused on a bright future. Washington Jen DiMascio [email protected] I’ll keep you up-to-date on new initiatives in this letter in the coming weeks. Wichita Molly McMillin [email protected]

President, Aviation Week Network Greg Hamilton, Gregory Hamilton President, Aviation Week Network Managing Director, Intelligence & Data Services Anne McMahon [email protected]

4 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 FEEDBACK

MORE CARROT, LESS STICK to on every flight unless you are lucky notes,” which reliability engineers, I just read with interest Helmut enough to be in first class. In fact, the failure analysts and flight-test crews Kunz’s letter “Local Languages” removal of every other row would be a in the average large manufacturer are (March 23-April 5, p. 6). I was a Royal good idea in the future as well. well equipped to program. Air Force navigator long ago, flying With about a 20% load factor these But that automated subsystem Canberras, Buccaneers and Torna- days, and probably for a long time in must never be given control authority dos. I did two tours in Germany and the future, this will keep us safer and over the airplane without the pilot am now a happily naturalized U.S. give us lots of legroom. having reviewed the conclusions and citizen—I just celebrated 35 years of proposed course of action. There is very fulfilling life here in the U.S. Bob Seelos, San Diego always the possibility that the au- It is not “arrogance” to use one’s tomation logic may fail under some native language in the air, as Kunz AUTOMATION LOGIC rare unforeseen combination of writes; it is merely natural and David Vecchi hits the nail on the head circumstances, as with the Boeing 737 convenient. in his letter “Manual Proficiency” MAX’s Maneuvering Characteristics I fully agree about the vital im- (March 23-April 5, p. 6): The basic Augmentation System. portance of everyone being “on the problem is “the inability or reluctance To preserve the admirable Boeing same page”—that is, in the same of some pilots to fly under manual philosophy of designing an airplane language—in aviation, but a lot more control.” that can be flown satisfactorily under carrot, a lot less stick and some rea- At the same time, we must rec- fully manual control, then we must ban sonable tolerance for the less gifted ognize that the system complexity automated gizmos that accommodate linguists among us aviators seems a accompanying automation is placing flaws in mandatory flight character- more hopeful way forward. unreasonable demands on the pilot istics if we are to continue producing to instantaneously recognize system airplanes that will be flown by pilots of Tim Price, Pittsburgh failures, their cause and the best greatly varying experience. remedial action. The answer to that THE MIDDLE SEAT is to automate and expand the “pilot’s Malcolm Bowden, McDonald, Tennessee American Airlines recently announced that it would not be assigning the middle seat to help combat COVID-19 Address letters to the Editor-in-Chief, Aviation Week & Space Technology, and achieve social distancing. This 2121 K Street, NW, Suite 210, Washington, DC, 20037 or send via email to: should be a permanent solution to the [email protected] Letters may be edited for length and clarity; cramped quarters we are subjected a verifiable address and daytime telephone number are required.

BEHIND THE SCENES Forced to work from home since March 10 due to the novel coronavirus pandemic, the New York- based Aviation Week & Space Technology editorial production team produced the March 23-April 5 print issue of AW&ST from 12 home offices—or living rooms, dining rooms or kitchens— a first in the history of the magazine. The team has transferred their highly collaborative workflow online, substituting chat messages, screen-shares and calls via the Teams app for the immediacy of shouting questions across the newsroom and discussing edits and layouts face-to-face until it is safe to return to their office in Manhattan. The production crew (top row, from left): Andrea Hollowell, Michael Lavitt, Lisa Caputo; (second row, from left): Michael Stearns, Thomas DePierro, Theresa Petruso; (third row, from left): Colin Throm, Audra Avizienis, Arturo Mora (and Pretty); (bottom row, from left): Rosa Pineda, Michael Hayes and Jack Freifelder.

6 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST FEEDBACK WHO’S WHERE

MORE CARROT, LESS STICK to on every flight unless you are lucky notes,” which reliability engineers, has I just read with interest Helmut enough to be in first class. In fact, the failure analysts and flight-test crews Dany Eshchar leadership positions at LMI Advisors, as his last active duty position. He been hired as CEO Kunz’s letter “Local Languages” removal of every other row would be a in the average large manufacturer are Kymeta and EADS North America and succeeds Norris Krone, who passed of Orbit Communica- (March 23-April 5, p. 6). I was a Royal good idea in the future as well. well equipped to program. serves as director and treasurer of the in 2019. tions Systems, which Air Force navigator long ago, flying With about a 20% load factor these But that automated subsystem International Institute of Space Law. Honeywell has elected U.S. Army provides maritime Canberras, Buccaneers and Torna- days, and probably for a long time in must never be given control authority Capella Space has hired Dayna Gen. (ret.) Raymond T. Odierno to and airborne satcom dos. I did two tours in Germany and the future, this will keep us safer and over the airplane without the pilot Anderson as vice president of business its board as an independent direc- terminals and mis- am now a happily naturalized U.S. give us lots of legroom. having reviewed the conclusions and operations and Mack Koepke as vice tor. Odierno was military advisor sion-critical airborne citizen—I just celebrated 35 years of proposed course of action. There is president of global sales. Anderson to former U.S. Secretaries of State audio systems. Eshchar was deputy very fulfilling life here in the U.S. Bob Seelos, San Diego always the possibility that the au- and Koepke previously worked for Colin Powell and CEO for the Israel- and U.S.-based It is not “arrogance” to use one’s tomation logic may fail under some Maxar Technologies. Condoleezza Rice. Aeronautics Group. native language in the air, as Kunz AUTOMATION LOGIC rare unforeseen combination of Rodney Freling- Western Aircraft Aeronautics Group has hired Moshe writes; it is merely natural and David Vecchi hits the nail on the head circumstances, as with the Boeing 737 huysen has joined has hired Jacqueline Elazar as CEO. He succeeds Amos convenient. in his letter “Manual Proficiency” MAX’s Maneuvering Characteristics Greenberg Traurig Rambacal as regional Mathan. Elazar was Rafael Advanced I fully agree about the vital im- (March 23-April 5, p. 6): The basic Augmentation System. as a senior director sales manager. Prior Defense Systems executive vice pres- portance of everyone being “on the problem is “the inability or reluctance To preserve the admirable Boeing for government to joining Western ident and general manager of Rafael’s same page”—that is, in the same of some pilots to fly under manual philosophy of designing an airplane law and policy. For- Aircraft, she served land and naval division. He also held language—in aviation, but a lot more control.” that can be flown satisfactorily under mer congressman as vice president of aviation at Bank senior positions in Israel’s defense carrot, a lot less stick and some rea- At the same time, we must rec- fully manual control, then we must ban Frelinghuysen had been chairman of OZK in Little Rock, Arkansas. ministry and the Israel Defense Forces. sonable tolerance for the less gifted ognize that the system complexity automated gizmos that accommodate the House Appropriations Committee. AAR has appointed H. John Gilbert FlightSafety International has hired linguists among us aviators seems a accompanying automation is placing flaws in mandatory flight character- Electro-magnetic motor company son, Jr., to its board. Gilbertson is a Brad Thress as president and CEO. He more hopeful way forward. unreasonable demands on the pilot istics if we are to continue producing ePropelled has promoted Tim Quaglieri former managing director and 27-year succeeds David Davenport, who has to instantaneously recognize system airplanes that will be flown by pilots of to head its human resources team in veteran of Goldman Sachs. left. Thress was senior vice president Tim Price, Pittsburgh failures, their cause and the best greatly varying experience. addition to his role as Clark Hill law firm has hired at Textron Aviation and before that, remedial action. The answer to that director of finance. Eduardo Alfonso Angeles as managing president of Able Aerospace. THE MIDDLE SEAT is to automate and expand the “pilot’s Malcolm Bowden, McDonald, Tennessee Mehtap Cevher director and senior counsel for gov- Spacecom has hired Dan Zajicek as American Airlines recently announced Conti has joined ernment and regulatory affairs in Los CEO. He succeeds interim CEO Itzik that it would not be assigning the Hogan Lovells’ New Angeles. Angeles was general counsel Shnaiberg, who resumes his deputy middle seat to help combat COVID-19 Address letters to the Editor-in-Chief, Aviation Week & Space Technology, York finance practice and senior assistant city attorney at CEO position. Zajicek was CEO of and achieve social distancing. This 2121 K Street, NW, Suite 210, Washington, DC, 20037 or send via email to: as a partner. Previ- Los Angeles World Airports, which Satcom Systems, chief financial offi- should be a permanent solution to the Letters may be edited for length and clarity; ously with Arnold & oversees Los Angeles International [email protected] cer at Bezeq International and senior cramped quarters we are subjected a verifiable address and daytime telephone number are required. Porter Kay Scholer, she brings 15 years and Van Nuys airports. deputy director general of Israel’s of finance experience across a variety communications ministry. of aviation transactions. Dunmore has promoted Thomas AE Industrial Partners has named HONORS & ELECTIONS S. Rimel, Jr., to president from chief Kevin McAleenan an operating part- Mark Spangler has been selected to operating officer. Dunmore produces BEHIND THE SCENES ner of the aerospace, defense and serve on the Armed Forces Commu- laminated film substrates for the air- government-services private equity nications and Elec- Forced to work from home since March 10 due to craft industry. firm. McAleenan was acting secretary tronics Association Motion Indus- the novel coronavirus pandemic, the New York- of Homeland Security. He also will sit International Cyber tries has promoted on the boards of portfolio companies Committee. Spangler based Aviation Week & Space Technology Greg Cook to exec- Gryphon Technologies and American is TriSept Corp.’s editorial production team produced the utive vice president Pacific Corp. senior cybersecu- March 23-April 5 print issue of AW&ST from 12 home from senior vice Amit Musli has rity advisor, with president. He contin- offices—or living rooms, dining rooms or kitchens— been hired as Percepto 36 years of CIA ues to serve as chief vice president of and National Reconnaissance Office a first in the history of the magazine. The team has financial officer of the industrial parts sales. Musli joins the leader ship experience. transferred their highly collaborative workflow online, distributor as well. autonomous industri- The fifth Martha King Scholarship for substituting chat messages, screen-shares and calls Mitsubishi Aircraft Corp. has shifted al drone manufactur- Female Flight Instructors was awarded executive responsibilities in its push to at the annual Women via the Teams app for the immediacy of shouting er from Kramer Elec- Anna Stanphill to obtain SpaceJet M90 certifica- tronics, where he was on the senior in Aviation International Conference questions across the newsroom and discussing edits tion. Senior Vice Presidents Keisuke management team. in Orlando, Florida, in February. It and layouts face-to-face until it is safe to return to Masutani and Hiroyuki Tatsuoka will The University Research Foundation provides lifelong flight-instructor con- their office in Manhattan. The production crew (top become board directors with, respec- has hired U.S. Navy Vice Adm. (ret.) tinuing education from King Schools, tively, oversight of governance and as president. Architzel founded by National Aviation Hall of row, from left): Andrea Hollowell, Michael Lavitt, David Architzel engineering development. Hitoshi was with Naval Air Systems Command Famers John and Martha King. c Lisa Caputo; (second row, from left): Michael Stearns, Kaguchi becomes a part-time director, Thomas DePierro, Theresa Petruso; (third row, and Hiroyoshi Kodama a part-time To submit information for the Who’s Where column, send Word or attached text files statutory internal auditor. from left): Colin Throm, Audra Avizienis, Arturo Mora (no PDFs) and photos to: [email protected] For additional information on HawkEye 360 has hired Dennis companies and individuals listed in this column, please refer to the Aviation Week Intelligence (and Pretty); (bottom row, from left): Rosa Pineda, Burnett as executive vice president Network at AviationWeek.com/awin For information on ordering, telephone Michael Hayes and Jack Freifelder. and general counsel. Burnett held U.S.: +1 (866) 857-0148 or +1 (515) 237-3682 outside the U.S.

6 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 7 FIRST The Deep Drop: 70% Less Trafﬁc TAKE Predicted Globally For the latest, go to 20% AVIATIONWEEK.COM 10 0 COMMERCIAL AVIATION -10 The $29 billion in loan guarantees for -20 IATA is projecting a 38% fall in average revenue pas- U.S. airlines, and $17 billion for the senger kilometers for the world’s airlines in 2020, -30 defense industrial base, available un- due to an expected 70% drop in traffic in the second der a $2.2 trillion rescue bill to offset -40 quarter caused by COVID-19. Based on this forecast, the coronavirus crisis come with re - -50 IATA is predicting a $252 billion loss of passenger strictions including limits on layoffs revenue for 2020 (page 13). (page 18). -60 -70 Change Year-Over-Year Percent Facing delivery deferrals and substan- -80 tial production cuts, Airbus has boost- 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 ed liquidity to €30 billion ($32 billion) but is not asking European govern - Source: International Air Transport Association ments for help.

IATA is pushing for broad adoption of British taxpayers have paid £156 million Qantas pilots have voted to accept new travel vouchers in place of requiring air- ($193 million) so far in response to the contract conditions that would allow lines to refund passengers when flights September 2019 collapse of leisure air- ultra-long-haul flying, although plans are canceled during the COVID-19 crisis. line Thomas Cook. to order aircraft for such flights are on hold. VIEW FROM WASHINGTON SPACE Broadband satellite constellation net- FAA Proposes Supersonic Standards work operator OneWeb filed for Chap- ter 11 after its biggest investor, Japan’s Responding to a congressional directive to exercise leadership in SoftBank, balked at providing addition- enabling the return of supersonic air travel, the FAA has proposed al financing because of the COVID-19 noise certification regulations for new supersonic aircraft. The crisis (page 28). proposed rules cover landing and takeoff noise and would not lift Veteran astronauts Shannon Walker of the prohibition on civil supersonic flight over land. NASA and Soichi Noguchi of the Japan The notice of proposed rulemaking (NPRM) released on March Aerospace Exploration Agency have been added to SpaceX’s first operational 30 outlines landing and takeoff (LTO) noise standards for super- Commercial Crew flight. sonic aircraft with a maximum takeoff weight no greater than 150,000 lb. and a maximum cruise speed up to Mach 1.8. The FAA NASA has selected SpaceX as the first to fly cargo to the planned lunar-orbit- defines such aircraft as Supersonic Level 1 (SSL1). ing Gateway in anticipation of spending “This definition would include most of the proposed supersonic $7 billion over 15 years with multiple airplane design concepts that U.S. manufacturers have described companies to resupply the outpost. to the FAA,” the NPRM says. As defined, SSL1 would include Aeri- TEXTRON AVIATION on’s AS2 supersonic business jet but would not cover Boom Super- sonic’s larger Overture airliner, which is being designed to carry up to 75 passengers at speeds up to Mach 2.2. “The FAA anticipates that when data is available to establish LTO-cycle noise standards for other weight and speed supersonic airplanes, other similar classes of airplane and noise level would be added . . . with separate definitions,” the NPRM says. “The FAA has indicated this is an initial step,” says Boom. “We’re actively engaged with U.S. and other international regulators and GENERAL AVIATION Textron Aviation has completed initial with ICAO to develop thoughtful, practical standards that will ground engine tests on its prototype apply to larger and faster aircraft such as Overture.” Cessna SkyCourier twin-turboprop utility aircraft.

8 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST FIRST The Deep Drop: 70% Less Trafﬁc TAKE Predicted Globally Dornier Seawings’ prototype New Gen- ture Attack Reconnaissance Aircraft to The U.S. Space Force has awarded Ray- eration Seastar amphibious aircraft replace AH-64 Apaches used for armed theon $378 million to replace comput- For the latest, go to 20% AVIATIONWEEK.COM made its 31-min. first flight from Ober- reconnaissance (page 39). ers in its next-generation GPS ground 10 pfaffenhofen, Germany, on March 28. system due to cybersecurity concerns. 0 Excessive leaks first identified in July COMMERCIAL AVIATION -10 2019 in the fuel system of the Boeing Saab has cut metal on the first compo- The $29 billion in loan guarantees for KC-46A have been upgraded to a Cate- nents for the two-seat JAS 39F Gripen, -20 IATA is projecting a 38% fall in average revenue pas- U.S. airlines, and $17 billion for the senger kilometers for the world’s airlines in 2020, gory 1 deficiency in the U.S. Air Force’s being developed for export customer -30 defense industrial base, available un- due to an expected 70% drop in traffic in the second DORNIER SEAWINGS new aerial refueling tanker. Brazil. der a $2.2 trillion rescue bill to offset -40 quarter caused by COVID-19. Based on this forecast, the coronavirus crisis come with re - at least its Space -50 IATA is predicting a $252 billion loss of passenger China appears to have deployed The U.S. Space Force declared strictions including limits on layoffs one of perhaps three direct-ascent an- Fence surveillance system operational revenue for 2020 (page 13). (page 18). -60 ti-satellite systems under development, on March 27, on Kwajalein Atoll in the -70 Change Year-Over-Year Percent according to a pair of U.S. reports is- Marshall Islands. Facing delivery deferrals and substan- -80 Electric air taxi developer Lilium has sued March 30. tial production cuts, Airbus has boost- 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 raised an additional $240 million from Germany will make a split buy of 45 Eu- ed liquidity to €30 billion ($32 billion) existing investors, taking the total Work on a hypersonic weapon concept, rofighters and 45 Boeing F/A-18 Super but is not asking European govern - Source: International Air Transport Association raised so far by the German startup to Thresher, is underway between the Hornets to replace its Panavia Torna- ments for help. more than $340 million. UK’s Defense Science and Technology dos, local media reports suggest. Laboratory and the U.S. Air Force Re- IATA is pushing for broad adoption of British taxpayers have paid £156 million Qantas pilots have voted to accept new Lynn Tilton has stepped down as CEO of search Laboratory (page 14). The U.S. Marine Corps is to commission travel vouchers in place of requiring air- ($193 million) so far in response to the contract conditions that would allow MD Helicopters after a bankruptcy court an independent study of a plan to rede- lines to refund passengers when flights September 2019 collapse of leisure air- ultra-long-haul flying, although plans ordered her to sell companies to repay After receiving antitrust and other reg- sign its force that would reduce the num- are canceled during the COVID-19 crisis. line Thomas Cook. to order aircraft for such flights are on loan obligations worth nearly $2 billion. ulatory approvals for their merger, United ber of F-35s in its squadrons (page 32). hold. Technologies and Raytheon planned to European create the combined Raytheon Technol- OBITUARIES VIEW FROM WASHINGTON Embraer received Brazilian, SPACE and U.S. type certification for its up - ogies on April 3. Jean-Marie Saget, former chief test pi- Broadband satellite constellation net- graded Phenom 300E light business lot for Dassault, died March 19 at age FAA Proposes Supersonic Standards work operator OneWeb filed for Chap- jet on March 27. Airbus has paused production of 91. Born in Paris, Saget was a pilot with ter 11 after its biggest investor, Japan’s A400M and C295 airlifters and A330 the French Air Force in 1954 when he Responding to a congressional directive to exercise leadership in SoftBank, balked at providing addition- DEFENSE tanker/transports in Spain because of won a Paris-Cannes air race in an Oura- enabling the return of supersonic air travel, the FAA has proposed al financing because of the COVID-19 Bell and Sikorsky are to build compet- a more restrictive lockdown to combat gan fighter. The fol- noise certification regulations for new supersonic aircraft. The crisis (page 28). ing prototypes of the U.S. Army’s Fu- COVID-19. lowing year, Marcel proposed rules cover landing and takeoff noise and would not lift Dassault hired him Veteran astronauts Shannon Walker of as a test pilot. He the prohibition on civil supersonic flight over land. NASA and Soichi Noguchi of the Japan was chief test pilot The notice of proposed rulemaking (NPRM) released on March Aerospace Exploration Agency have 50 YEARS AGO IN AVIATION WEEK from 1955 to 1989. been added to SpaceX’s first operational Europe’s first Boeing 747 was featured “He will remain, at 30 outlines landing and takeoff (LTO) noise standards for super- Commercial Crew flight. Dassault Aviation, on our cover of April 13, 1970, flying over sonic aircraft with a maximum takeoff weight no greater than DASSAULT AVIATION an example of the 150,000 lb. and a maximum cruise speed up to Mach 1.8. The FAA NASA has selected SpaceX as the first western Washington shortly before its entry qualities that the aeronautical world to fly cargo to the planned lunar-orbit- into service with Lufthansa. The widebody requires to accomplish the greatest defines such aircraft as Supersonic Level 1 (SSL1). ing Gateway in anticipation of spending aircraft, one of five 747s initially ordered by purposes,” the company says. “This definition would include most of the proposed supersonic $7 billion over 15 years with multiple the German carrier, was scheduled to fly airplane design concepts that U.S. manufacturers have described companies to resupply the outpost. between Frankfurt and New York. But all was Aviation entrepreneur Joe Clark, co- TEXTRON AVIATION not well at Boeing, which was suffering from founder and CEO of blended winglet to the FAA,” the NPRM says. As defined, SSL1 would include Aeri- developer Aviation Partners (API), died declining commercial sales and a slump in on’s AS2 supersonic business jet but would not cover Boom Super- in Palm Springs, California, on March sonic’s larger Overture airliner, which is being designed to carry up its defense and space businesses. The com- 30 at age 78. Clark, who was born in pany’s workforce—already projected to drop Canada, also cofounded Horizon Air. to 75 passengers at speeds up to Mach 2.2. from 134,000 at the start of 1969 to less He formed Seat- “The FAA anticipates that when data is available to establish than 79,000 by the end of 1970—declined tle-based API in 1991 LTO-cycle noise standards for other weight and speed supersonic at nearly twice the expected rate during after selling Horizon the first quarter, the magazine reported, Air to Alaska Air- airplanes, other similar classes of airplane and noise level would be lines. “His legacy will with the heaviest hits coming in the Seattle added . . . with separate definitions,” the NPRM says. long be visible on the “The FAA has indicated this is an initial step,” says Boom. “We’re area. Lufthansa ultimately ordered 81 747s Aviation Week Intelligence Network’s Fleet thousands of busi- between 1966 and 2006. Thirty-two of those Discovery database: 19 747-8s, 11 747-400s actively engaged with U.S. and other international regulators and GENERAL AVIATION ness and commercial Textron Aviation has completed initial are still in the airline’s fleet, according to the and two freighters. aircraft fitted with AVIATION PARTNERS with ICAO to develop thoughtful, practical standards that will ground engine tests on its prototype his winglets to increase performance apply to larger and faster aircraft such as Overture.” Cessna SkyCourier twin-turboprop Read every issue of Aviation Week back to 1916 at: archive.aviationweek.com and efficiency,” says the National Busi- utility aircraft. ness Aviation Association. c

8 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 9 COMMENTARY GOING CONCERNS MICHAEL BRUNO

UP UNTIL THE START OF MARCH, tential stress tests, minimum employment levels and/ new Boeing CEO and President David or labor controls. In turn, they say, Boeing’s stock will Calhoun’s biggest challenge was getting trade at a discount. the 737 MAX back in the air. Since then, While these conditions are the most prominent the narrowbody’s grounding and production halt has “strings attached” being discussed for Boeing, they may become quaint as Wall Street and others subtly but not be the last—nor should they be. As one Wall Street increasingly wonder whether Boeing can survive the icon said recently about government bailouts, it is time post-COVID-19 world. for a better return on investment for the country. Boeing triggered the new skepticism March 17 when it Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz chief economic advisor formally asked Washington for a $60 billion-plus bailout and the former CEO of fixed-income investing company of the U.S. aerospace manufacturing sector, ostensibly to Pimco, says: “The notion of governments in different flow through the Chicago-based OEM. So dramatic was companies, that’s going to be the case because a lot the turn of events that Nikki Haley, a former official in the of companies are going to have to be bailed out. [It is] administration of President Donald Trump, quit Boeing’s best to start with the technocratic approach, which is board in protest, asserting that companies should not to define your objectives. Protecting jobs is one exam- receive federal handouts. ple; protecting nation- In response, Boeing al security is another. thanked her for almost a Bail Out Boeing? Then go through what it year of directorship and mean[s] for who you bail removed her chair from Likely yes, but maybe not the way Boeing wants out and how you bail out, the boardroom. Wheth- and importantly, how you er Haley has ulterior motives is a debate for another get incentive alignment coming out of the bailouts.” day, but it is clear why the manufacturer is seeking What do such incentive alignments with Boeing look money. According to Jefferies analysts, Boeing Com- like? It should go way beyond maintaining employment mercial Airplanes alone was burning through about figures and shelving shareholder returns. Washington $4.3 billion a month to fund its operations and support is desperate for U.S. aerospace and defense providers suppliers before the novel coronavirus outbreak. to innovate, but independent research and develop- Boeing has $15 billion in liquidity, Calhoun said ment (IRAD) spending has been emaciated over the March 24. But it ended 2019 with more last decade as public companies raced than $27 billion in debt. By mid-March, “THE NOTION OF GOVERNMENTS to reward shareholders. Getting Boe- it had fully drawn down a new credit ing to double or triple IRAD could be line totaling nearly $14 billion. And by IN DIFFERENT COMPANIES, a good start. the time Calhoun spoke, Boeing had At the same time, the Pentagon, closed Puget Sound widebody manufac- NASA and Congress are exhausted turing for health reasons, frozen hiring, THAT’S GOING with poor contractor performance on suspended dividend payments—which its major defense acquisition and space on top of already frozen share buybacks TO BE THE CASE.” programs. Does anyone remember the is a doomsday for investors—and said Future Combat Systems or the recent Calhoun will forgo pay through 2020. Starliner failure? As government au- But as fellow Chicagoan and former Chicago Mayor ditors have documented in countless reports, weapon Rahm Emanuel once said, you never let a good crisis programs are years late and often double-digit per- go to waste. If there was ever a time to socialize the centages over budget—assuming they ultimately de- risks facing Boeing, this pandemic is the hook. The liver. With that in mind, Boeing could be “incentivized” question for U.S. leaders then becomes: Is it worth tak- to dramatically improve its results across the board. ing Boeing up on its bailout bid? Finally, there has been a lot of talk in the U.S. in re- The answer likely is “yes,” but maybe not for obvious cent years about a crisis of not producing enough sci- reasons—and probably not the way Boeing wants. Pro- ence, technology, engineering and math (STEM) grad- tecting Boeing’s workforce of more than 150,000 em- uates. But as Aviation Week workforce studies have ployees and tens of thousands of suppliers is statistical- shown, industry acts as a poor pull on the demand for ly significant as Washington tries to fend off a prolonged such graduates, with relatively few hired out of schools recession, but maintaining Boeing’s payroll and supply each year. Instead, companies have long preferred to chain could be accomplished other ways, such as direct poach talent from each other when needed. So make payments to those employees or grants to suppliers. Boeing either more directly fund STEM education or Boeing will surely have to swallow some once-in- hire an industry-leading ratio of cohorts each year. conceivable conditions, starting with an ongoing lack There are likely many more ways to better align Boe- of dividends and share buybacks. UBS analysts say ing with U.S. interests, and they should be considered. Af- there also likely will be executive pay regulation and ter all, U.S. taxpayers already are being promised more incremental board governance oversight, including po- bang for the buck—so let us get more Buck Rogers. c

10 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMENTARY GOING CONCERNS MICHAEL BRUNO

UP UNTIL THE START OF MARCH, tential stress tests, minimum employment levels and/ new Boeing CEO and President David or labor controls. In turn, they say, Boeing’s stock will Calhoun’s biggest challenge was getting trade at a discount. the 737 MAX back in the air. Since then, While these conditions are the most prominent the narrowbody’s grounding and production halt has “strings attached” being discussed for Boeing, they may become quaint as Wall Street and others subtly but not be the last—nor should they be. As one Wall Street increasingly wonder whether Boeing can survive the icon said recently about government bailouts, it is time post-COVID-19 world. for a better return on investment for the country. Boeing triggered the new skepticism March 17 when it Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz chief economic advisor formally asked Washington for a $60 billion-plus bailout and the former CEO of fixed-income investing company of the U.S. aerospace manufacturing sector, ostensibly to Pimco, says: “The notion of governments in different flow through the Chicago-based OEM. So dramatic was companies, that’s going to be the case because a lot the turn of events that Nikki Haley, a former official in the of companies are going to have to be bailed out. [It is] administration of President Donald Trump, quit Boeing’s best to start with the technocratic approach, which is board in protest, asserting that companies should not to define your objectives. Protecting jobs is one exam- receive federal handouts. ple; protecting nation- In response, Boeing al security is another. thanked her for almost a Bail Out Boeing? Then go through what it year of directorship and mean[s] for who you bail removed her chair from Likely yes, but maybe not the way Boeing wants out and how you bail out, the boardroom. Wheth- and importantly, how you er Haley has ulterior motives is a debate for another get incentive alignment coming out of the bailouts.” day, but it is clear why the manufacturer is seeking What do such incentive alignments with Boeing look money. According to Jefferies analysts, Boeing Com- like? It should go way beyond maintaining employment mercial Airplanes alone was burning through about figures and shelving shareholder returns. Washington $4.3 billion a month to fund its operations and support is desperate for U.S. aerospace and defense providers suppliers before the novel coronavirus outbreak. to innovate, but independent research and develop- Boeing has $15 billion in liquidity, Calhoun said ment (IRAD) spending has been emaciated over the March 24. But it ended 2019 with more last decade as public companies raced than $27 billion in debt. By mid-March, “THE NOTION OF GOVERNMENTS to reward shareholders. Getting Boe- it had fully drawn down a new credit ing to double or triple IRAD could be line totaling nearly $14 billion. And by IN DIFFERENT COMPANIES, a good start. the time Calhoun spoke, Boeing had At the same time, the Pentagon, closed Puget Sound widebody manufac- NASA and Congress are exhausted turing for health reasons, frozen hiring, THAT’S GOING with poor contractor performance on suspended dividend payments—which its major defense acquisition and space on top of already frozen share buybacks TO BE THE CASE.” programs. Does anyone remember the is a doomsday for investors—and said Future Combat Systems or the recent THERE IS NO COMPARISON. Calhoun will forgo pay through 2020. Starliner failure? As government au- But as fellow Chicagoan and former Chicago Mayor ditors have documented in countless reports, weapon NO EQUAL. THERE IS ONLY ONE. Rahm Emanuel once said, you never let a good crisis programs are years late and often double-digit per- go to waste. If there was ever a time to socialize the centages over budget—assuming they ultimately de- THE COMMERCIAL JET ENGINE risks facing Boeing, this pandemic is the hook. The liver. With that in mind, Boeing could be “incentivized” IN A LEAGUE OF ITS OWN. question for U.S. leaders then becomes: Is it worth tak- to dramatically improve its results across the board. ing Boeing up on its bailout bid? Finally, there has been a lot of talk in the U.S. in re- Powered by an industry‑first geared architecture — and more than The answer likely is “yes,” but maybe not for obvious cent years about a crisis of not producing enough sci- 40 other groundbreaking innovations — the Pratt & Whitney GTF™ reasons—and probably not the way Boeing wants. Pro- ence, technology, engineering and math (STEM) grad- tecting Boeing’s workforce of more than 150,000 em- uates. But as Aviation Week workforce studies have is unlike any engine that’s come before it. ployees and tens of thousands of suppliers is statistical- shown, industry acts as a poor pull on the demand for EXPLORE THE FUTURE OF FLIGHT AT PRATTWHITNEY.COM ly significant as Washington tries to fend off a prolonged such graduates, with relatively few hired out of schools recession, but maintaining Boeing’s payroll and supply each year. Instead, companies have long preferred to chain could be accomplished other ways, such as direct poach talent from each other when needed. So make payments to those employees or grants to suppliers. Boeing either more directly fund STEM education or Boeing will surely have to swallow some once-in- hire an industry-leading ratio of cohorts each year. conceivable conditions, starting with an ongoing lack There are likely many more ways to better align Boe- of dividends and share buybacks. UBS analysts say ing with U.S. interests, and they should be considered. Af- there also likely will be executive pay regulation and ter all, U.S. taxpayers already are being promised more incremental board governance oversight, including po- bang for the buck—so let us get more Buck Rogers. c

10 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMENTARY INSIDE BUSINESS AVIATION WILLIAM GARVEY

THE NOVEL CORONAVIRUS HAS There’s more. Clark, who has facilitated the private severely affected the aviation commu- sale of thousands of warbirds, including 80 P-51 Mus- nity, among countless others. Were it tangs, says: “Anybody with enough money can buy one not for the pandemic, spring’s arrival of these things.” But, he adds, if the aircraft is heavy, normally means many of us would likely encounter complex or a jet, the purchaser will need appropriate some deep-throated, octogenarian war veterans with piloting experience and training and to demonstrate a surprising flash, noble character and clearly serious high level of skill to win government approval to go fly it. purpose. And with eyes drawn skyward, we would And more. Even with the FAA’s blessing of the air- watch them rumble by. craft and pilot, a warbird operator still needs insur- These are members of the “warbird” fleet—all for- ance. According to Lance Toland, a prominent avia- mer military fighters, bombers, transports, trainers, tion insurance broker and pilot who at one time observation and other owned 38 warbirds, cov- aircraft now owned and erage for such aircraft is operated by civilians. The Warbirders hard to find and becom- There were to be 100 ing “exorbitant.” such aircraft forming Keeping history alive and airborne As far as the Mente- an aerial parade up the marketed F-5 is con- National Mall in Wash- cerned, Toland says, ington, on May 8 as part “I wouldn’t touch that of the Arsenal of Democ- with a 10-ft. pole.” Such racy Flyover (AW&ST a negative outlook is Feb. 10-23, p. 14), but concerning for warbird COVID-19 forced a re- operators since “with- scheduling to Sept. 25. out in surance they risk Delaying or canceling everything they own on air events has become a a single flight,” he added. common practice since Then there’s the mat- the virus took hold. ter of maintenance and While there has been parts. The production of attrition over the de- COURTESY AIRCRAFT many warbirds ended 60 cades—the loss of a B-17 in Connecticut along with or more years ago, and those with the skills required seven on board last October is among the most recent to keep them flying have steadily declined in number. and tragic example—there remain an estimated 6,000 Clark says there remains “a pretty good network of warbirds in the U.S. alone, though not all are airworthy. shops” able to service the fleet. However, in any mar- It comes as a surprise to many outside of aviation ket, scarcity affects pricing. that an individual or group of individuals can buy and For all those reasons, Toland has a frank assessment fly a B-25 Mitchell bomber or MiG jet fighter. But it is of the appeal of warbird ownership: “I think it’s waning.” perfectly legal . . . albeit with lots of restrictions. And yet there are those with a special passion for Brian Hammer, vice president of transactions at the the winged vets. They see the machines as fabric and Mente Group, a business aircraft sales company and aluminum symbols of bravery, determination, selfless- consultancy in Dallas, oversaw the sale of a MiG-29 ness and love of country. They are iconic artifacts and, late last year. Furthermore, he’s got a Northrop F-5 on by the way, fun to fly and put on display. the market right now. The price? It’s “Make offer.” Steve Craig, a lawyer, real estate investor and ho- Should that offer come from a foreign customer and tel man from Lawrence, Kansas, is one such person. be accepted, the aircraft would have to comply with A seasoned aviator—and owner of the Beaumont federal International Traffic in Arms Regulations. Hotel, a favorite Kansas nexus among pilots—he has And any foreign-registered warbird must receive an owned a variety of warplanes including a Grumman import permit from the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, F4F Wildcat, Boeing Stearman PT-17 and a Buecker Firearms and Explosives to enter the U.S. Jungmeister. He loved them all. Furthermore, explains Mark Clark, a well-known In Craig’s experience, the warbird appeal is three- warbird specialist and president/owner of Courtesy fold. First is the welcoming fraternity of fellow enthu- Aircraft in Rockford, Illinois, such aircraft must be ab- siasts who have included Harrison Ford, Bob Hoover, sent any guns or cannons, bombs or targeting systems Baron Hilton and Robin Olds, among many. Second is and any drop tanks must be permanently secured. the thrill and satisfaction of piloting such unique air- With the exception of some light aircraft, most war- craft. And third is “doing my part in a small way to birds fall under the “experimental” airworthiness cat- preserve history.” c egory. As such, they have specific operational restrictions imposed by the FAA. William Garvey is Editor-in-Chief of Business & Commercial Aviation

12 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMENTARY COMMENTARY INSIDE BUSINESS AVIATION AIRLINE INTEL WILLIAM GARVEY JENS FLOTTAU

THE NOVEL CORONAVIRUS HAS There’s more. Clark, who has facilitated the private BEFORE THE NOVEL CORONAVIRUS without government aid will apply for it, because they severely affected the aviation commu- sale of thousands of warbirds, including 80 P-51 Mus- began to dominate events in aerospace know their competitors will be seeking similar infu- nity, among countless others. Were it tangs, says: “Anybody with enough money can buy one and air transport, the most heated politi- sions. Governments will then pick winners and losers. not for the pandemic, spring’s arrival of these things.” But, he adds, if the aircraft is heavy, cal debates took place around how much In the U.S., for instance, a massive coronavirus normally means many of us would likely encounter complex or a jet, the purchaser will need appropriate government support should be allowed in the industry. bailout signed into law by President Donald Trump some deep-throated, octogenarian war veterans with piloting experience and training and to demonstrate a There was no shortage of disputes: The long and bitter includes $29 billion for airlines to keep their workers surprising flash, noble character and clearly serious high level of skill to win government approval to go fly it. trade conflict between the U.S. and the EU about sub- employed through Sept. 30, even if most of their fleets purpose. And with eyes drawn skyward, we would And more. Even with the FAA’s blessing of the air- sidies for Boeing and Airbus began in 2004 and is still are grounded. While that’s good news for the carriers watch them rumble by. craft and pilot, a warbird operator still needs insur- going strong. For years, the big three U.S. legacy airlines and their employees, that level of support is highly con- These are members of the “warbird” fleet—all for- ance. According to Lance Toland, a prominent avia- argued that market access for the big three Gulf carri- cerning for airlines elsewhere. mer military fighters, bombers, transports, trainers, tion insurance broker and pilot who at one time ers should be limited because they received state sup- Consider that before the coronavirus crisis the five observation and other owned 38 warbirds, cov- port—a claim Emirates has always denied. In Europe, largest U.S. airlines already made about half of the in- aircraft now owned and erage for such aircraft is bailouts of Alitalia have been a never-ending story, as dustry’s profits worldwide. Most of those profits were operated by civilians. The Warbirders hard to find and becom- have been airport subsidies and “marketing support” for directed back to shareholders (leaving a thin cushion There were to be 100 ing “exorbitant.” whenever an airline opened a new route (the least con- for hard times). But there was still enough money left such aircraft forming Keeping history alive and airborne As far as the Mente- tentious issue since everyone benefited at some point). for Delta Air Lines to begin building a global empire by an aerial parade up the marketed F-5 is con- JOEPRIESAVIATION.COM National Mall in Wash- cerned, Toland says, ington, on May 8 as part “I wouldn’t touch that Should governments be shaping of the Arsenal of Democ- with a 10-ft. pole.” Such Airline Bailouts the industry’s future? racy Flyover (AW&ST a negative outlook is Feb. 10-23, p. 14), but concerning for warbird COVID-19 forced a re- operators since “with- scheduling to Sept. 25. out in surance they risk Delaying or canceling everything they own on air events has become a a single flight,” he added. common practice since Then there’s the mat- the virus took hold. ter of maintenance and While there has been parts. The production of attrition over the de- COURTESY AIRCRAFT many warbirds ended 60 cades—the loss of a B-17 in Connecticut along with or more years ago, and those with the skills required seven on board last October is among the most recent to keep them flying have steadily declined in number. Now that COVID-19 is changing life as we know it, investing in Virgin Atlantic, Air France-KLM, LATAM and tragic example—there remain an estimated 6,000 Clark says there remains “a pretty good network of some of those that have been most outspoken against Airlines, Aeromexico and China Southern, among oth- warbirds in the U.S. alone, though not all are airworthy. shops” able to service the fleet. However, in any mar- state support, such as Boeing, could be big beneficia- ers. Delta even seriously considered buying a stake in It comes as a surprise to many outside of aviation ket, scarcity affects pricing. ries of it, via government loans or guarantees aimed notoriously unprofitable Alitalia. that an individual or group of individuals can buy and For all those reasons, Toland has a frank assessment at ensuring their survival. In the airline industry, even While the case for taxpayer support exists now, fly a B-25 Mitchell bomber or MiG jet fighter. But it is of the appeal of warbird ownership: “I think it’s waning.” the healthiest carriers now say they cannot survive for governments need to realize they cannot be long-term perfectly legal . . . albeit with lots of restrictions. And yet there are those with a special passion for an extended period without state aid. An industry that players in the industry and should define their sup- Brian Hammer, vice president of transactions at the the winged vets. They see the machines as fabric and likes to routinely criticize governments for failing to port as emergency relief. Unfortunately, there is no Mente Group, a business aircraft sales company and aluminum symbols of bravery, determination, selfless- recognize its strategic importance to the world econo- coordination among nations, even those inside the EU. consultancy in Dallas, oversaw the sale of a MiG-29 ness and love of country. They are iconic artifacts and, my is now fully dependent on them. In most countries, France has said it will do whatever is needed to res- late last year. Furthermore, he’s got a Northrop F-5 on by the way, fun to fly and put on display. governments appear willing to help, debunking some cue companies in which the government has stakes— the market right now. The price? It’s “Make offer.” Steve Craig, a lawyer, real estate investor and ho- of the routine complaints that have become common- among them are Airbus and Air France. It is incon- Should that offer come from a foreign customer and tel man from Lawrence, Kansas, is one such person. place at industry conferences in recent years. ceivable that Germany would let Lufthansa Group fail, be accepted, the aircraft would have to comply with A seasoned aviator—and owner of the Beaumont That is not to say that the case for government aid for even though it is a fully private company. Meanwhile, federal International Traffic in Arms Regulations. Hotel, a favorite Kansas nexus among pilots—he has aviation is spurious. The economic crisis that has way- airlines in the UK have been told not to expect a direct And any foreign-registered warbird must receive an owned a variety of warplanes including a Grumman laid airlines is partially the result of government-im- government rescue. import permit from the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, F4F Wildcat, Boeing Stearman PT-17 and a Buecker posed travel restrictions to deal with the initial health To be sure, the industry’s playing field was never Firearms and Explosives to enter the U.S. Jungmeister. He loved them all. crisis. And given aviation’s critical role in the global completely level in good times. Italy spent billions of Furthermore, explains Mark Clark, a well-known In Craig’s experience, the warbird appeal is three- economy, there is a strong case to be made that it is in euros on Alitalia over decades. The airline, now nation- warbird specialist and president/owner of Courtesy fold. First is the welcoming fraternity of fellow enthu- the public interest to preserve a critical mass that can alized, still exists but is no longer relevant. Etihad Air- Aircraft in Rockford, Illinois, such aircraft must be ab- siasts who have included Harrison Ford, Bob Hoover, ramp back up once the COVID-19 pandemic subsides. ways was propped up with billions by Abu Dhabi but sent any guns or cannons, bombs or targeting systems Baron Hilton and Robin Olds, among many. Second is The industry undoubtedly will look different after the has been retrenching after it became abundantly clear and any drop tanks must be permanently secured. the thrill and satisfaction of piloting such unique air- crisis. To start with, it will be smaller, though analysts that its strategy did not work. Those examples show With the exception of some light aircraft, most war- craft. And third is “doing my part in a small way to vary widely in their estimates of how much. Wheth- that in the past, even the biggest subsidies ultimately birds fall under the “experimental” airworthiness cat- preserve history.” c er airlines live or die will depend not on their perfor- did not rescue unfocused or flawed business models. egory. As such, they have specific operational restric- mance, but on which has access to government money But they pale in comparison to the market distortions tions imposed by the FAA. William Garvey is Editor-in-Chief of Business & Commercial Aviation and which does not. Even airlines that might survive that will be caused by the COVID-19 bailouts. c

12 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 13 HYPERSONICS HYPERSONIC THRESHOLD > UK/U.S. THRESHER PROJECT EXPERIMENTS CONTINUE TO 2022-23

> PROJECT ADDS TO UK-FRENCH HYPERSONIC MISSILE WORK

> UK IDENTIFIES BOOSTERS, AERO DATA AS HYPERSONIC NEEDS

Steve Trimble Washington, Guy Norris Los Angeles and Tony Osborne London

he disclosure of a new U.S./UK collaboration on a hypersonic weapon concept highlights proposals within the British government and industry to leverage de- France also committed to fielding a cades of research and expertise in high-speed flight and hypersonic, nuclear cruise missile by T the mid-2030s. propulsion to rapidly emerge as the latest country to weaponize The UK, a pioneer in the field since hypersonic technology. a Queen’s University professor de - veloped the hypersonic waverider Extensive experimentation for comprehensive weapon system con- concept in 1951, has quietly remained a new weapon concept called the cept,” with science and technology- active as basic research has shifted to Thresher—originally an acronym for level activity for the Thresher over the weapons development. Air Vice Mar- Tactical High-Speed, Responsive and next 3-4 years focused on the aerody- shal Rocky Rochelle, leader of the Roy- Highly Efficient Round but now sim- namics, warhead and propulsion, the al Air Force’s (RAF) Rapid Capabili- ply a name—is underway between the Defense Ministry says. ties Office, committed in July to study UK’s Defense Science and Technology The two-year-old collaboration was the feasibility of fielding a hypersonic Laboratory (DSTL) and the U.S. Air launched as the U.S. laid plans for a weapon within four years. Force Research Laboratory (AFRL), $10 billion investment in a broad port- “The RAF, in particular, has been the UK Defense Ministry confirms to folio of conventional hypersonic weap- clear about its desire to obtain hy - Aviation Week. ons, responding to moves last year personic munitions for air launch in The previously undisclosed joint by Russia to field the nuclear-armed the early 2020s if at all possible,” says Project Arrangement, which expires Avangard and by China to deploy the Justin Bronk, a research fellow for the in fiscal 2022 or 2023, is “maturing intermediate-range DF-17 hypersonic Royal United Services Institute. technologies within the context of a glide vehicles by year-end. Last year, The existence of the collaborative

DSTL studies of a notional hypersonic glide vehicle are helping to hone UK high-speed design tools. Control Surfaces

Nose Tip Antenna Windows

DSTL

14 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST HYPERSONICS DSTL HYPERSONIC THRESHOLD > UK/U.S. THRESHER PROJECT EXPERIMENTS CONTINUE TO 2022-23

> PROJECT ADDS TO UK-FRENCH HYPERSONIC MISSILE WORK

> UK IDENTIFIES BOOSTERS, AERO DATA AS HYPERSONIC NEEDS

Steve Trimble Washington, Guy Norris Los Angeles and Tony Osborne London he disclosure of a new U.S./UK collaboration on a hypersonic weapon concept highlights proposals within the British government and industry to leverage de- France also committed to fielding a For its concept study, DSTL employed a Boeing cades of research and expertise in high-speed flight and hypersonic, nuclear cruise missile by 747-400-based airborne-launch system similar to T the mid-2030s. DSTL propulsion to rapidly emerge as the latest country to weaponize the Virgin Orbit’s underwing-location (inset) method. The UK, a pioneer in the field since hypersonic technology. a Queen’s University professor de - veloped the hypersonic waverider Thresher and Rochelle’s feasibility Fires Capability, which has also been capability in the hypersonic realm. Extensive experimentation for comprehensive weapon system con- concept in 1951, has quietly remained study may suggest that the RAF is shelved. “DSTL is developing tools and ex- a new weapon concept called the cept,” with science and technology- active as basic research has shifted to preparing multiple projects to ad- Despite a rich history of hyperson- pertise to understand this new class Thresher—originally an acronym for level activity for the Thresher over the weapons development. Air Vice Mar- vance the science and technology, ic research within the UK, a senior of vehicles, and we are on the road to Tactical High-Speed, Responsive and next 3-4 years focused on the aerody- shal Rocky Rochelle, leader of the Roy- says James Bosbotinis, a UK-based DSTL official acknowledges collabo- do that,” says Hunter. Highly Efficient Round but now sim- namics, warhead and propulsion, the al Air Force’s (RAF) Rapid Capabili- defense and international affairs rations are necessary to transition the Designed for a maximum speed of ply a name—is underway between the Defense Ministry says. ties Office, committed in July to study analyst. A final decision may await technology to an operational weapon. Mach 5 and impact speed of Mach UK’s Defense Science and Technology The two-year-old collaboration was the feasibility of fielding a hypersonic the conclusions of the still-pending For example, the UK lacks the indus- 2-plus, the configuration that emerged Laboratory (DSTL) and the U.S. Air launched as the U.S. laid plans for a weapon within four years. review of the UK’s defense, security trial capacity to manufacture large from the study was 3.6 m long (12 ft.) Force Research Laboratory (AFRL), $10 billion investment in a broad port- “The RAF, in particular, has been and foreign policy, he says. solid rocket motors, which must by and 1.2 m wide, with a small nose the UK Defense Ministry confirms to folio of conventional hypersonic weap- clear about its desire to obtain hy - Any commitment that emerges supplied by international partners, radius of only 10 mm (0.4 in.). “That Aviation Week. ons, responding to moves last year personic munitions for air launch in from the review would build on de - DSTL Principal Scientist David keeps drag down, but that will have The previously undisclosed joint by Russia to field the nuclear-armed the early 2020s if at all possible,” says cades of UK hypersonic science and Hunter said at a Royal Aeronautical a thermal penalty,” says Hunter. The Project Arrangement, which expires Avangard and by China to deploy the Justin Bronk, a research fellow for the technology research. Society conference on hypersonics vehicle’s mass of 900 kg (2,000 lb.) in fiscal 2022 or 2023, is “maturing intermediate-range DF-17 hypersonic Royal United Services Institute. In the early 2000s, a team of UK en- in late November. The UK also needs was “sufficient to fit a [350-kg] war- technologies within the context of a glide vehicles by year-end. Last year, The existence of the collaborative gineers from Qinetiq performed trials of access to high-speed wind tunnels, as head in it for a medium-range [2,500- a scramjet engine called the HyShot 3, limited hypersonic flight-test data to 3,000-km] hypersonic glide vehicle.” developed jointly with Australian re- date reduces the quality of predictions Carbon-carbon material was se- DSTL studies of a notional hypersonic searchers. Fitted to a sounding rock- for aerodynamic control over Mach 5, lected for the nose tip and control glide vehicle are helping to hone UK et, the HyShot successfully achieved Hunter says. surfaces, with carbon or silica pheno- speeds of 9,000 kph (5,600 mph), A notional air-launched hyperson- lic used in a heat shield to protect the high-speed design tools. prompting the UK to consider follow-up ic glide vehicle outlined at the confer- interior. Navigation would be provided Control trials. Two flights of the Sustained Hy- ence by Hunter also offered a glimpse by an integrated GPS/inertial system personic Flight Experiment, a Mach 6 of one possible pathway toward an with support from a ground-scanning Surfaces ramjet, were scheduled, with the first affordable offensive tactical weapon synthetic aperture radar. The vehicle set for August 2009. But the plans system using existing technology. itself would be designed for direct were scrapped as the UK reconsidered Based loosely on Lockheed Martin’s insertion into its glide phase, there- Nose Tip its deep-strike aspirations. High-Performance Maneuvering Re- by eliminating the complexity of an Antenna The technology was being mulled entry Vehicle of the 1990s, which was exoatmospheric reaction control sys- Windows for the Defense Ministry’s Future related to the common air vehicle tem for post-boost reorientation. Long-Range Cruise Missile, later re- concept, the blended body study was Computational fluid dynamics anal- DSTL named the Future Long-Range Deep used to exercise DSTL’s new design ysis indicated that at Mach 7.5, 5 deg.

14 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 15 HYPERSONICS

alpha (angle of attack) and an altitude quiring the rocket technology, aero- ti-ship missiles. “The program is early of 30 km, the vehicle had a lift-to-drag dynamic prediction and control, and in the concept stages and represents ratio of 3.5. “That’s not quite as good thermal protection systems,” Hunter an opportunity for the UK and France as we hoped. But the good aspect of says. “If we did it, the weapon would to build on the hugely successful fam- that is we have quite a wide peak on be highly capable.” ily that has produced Storm Shadow, the lift-to-drag curve, which means we International hypersonic develop- Meteor, Brimstone, Perseus [and] Sea should be able to fly at higher lift-to- ment partnerships are the most likely Ceptor—to name a few,” says Bollom. drag ratio for a wide range of opera- option for the UK, says Air Marshal “We are studying some concepts tional conditions,” Hunter says. (ret.) Simon Bollom, CEO of Defence at present, and this brings an inter- The results indicated the vehicle can Equipment and Support, the keynote esting trade-off into play between get “600-km cross-range and change speaker at the conference. “The cost speed and low observability,” he says. heading by up to 90 deg. azimuth. That associated with developing a weapon “The program has down-selected to means defenders would have to pro- or air vehicles would probably be pro- two main concepts with a number of tect across a huge range, which would hibitive at a single-nation level, and if derivatives: one based on high speed be a big challenge,” he adds. we are going to get into this technol- and the other on low observability. The glide vehicle would be boosted ogy, we are probably going to have to The two workstreams are probably to a deployment altitude of 65 km by collaborate,” he says. not compatible in a single system at air-launch on a two-stage solid rock- While the UK is beginning its initial this stage, and it is likely we’ll have to et from beneath the wing of a Boeing forays into potential hypersonic weap- take one or both paths to deliver the 747-400. The 747 design incorporates ons projects with the U.S., the bulk of full capability across a demanding set a built-in structural hardpoint, orig- the nation’s missile investment is with of requirements.” inally designed for carrying spare France through MBDA. “Much of the His comments support speculation engines, which provides a convenient hypersonic subject-matter-expert that the program is moving toward location for a mounting for rocket knowledge in this partnership resides development of a subsonic, low-ob- launching. in MBDA France, and the UK is work- servable, air-launched weapon to The same design forms the basis of ing with France to develop a future replace the SCALP/Storm Shadow Virgin Orbit’s 747-based LauncherOne cruise anti-ship weapon for entry into missile and a higher-speed missile to smallsat delivery system. The com- service in the late 2020s,” says Bollom. replace the air- and surface-launched plete DSTL concept stack is 13.5 m Launched in 2017, the joint pro - anti-ship Exocet and Harpoon mis- long and weighs in at 16,300 kg, “so it gram is targeted at replacing British siles. It remains unknown whether does fit on the 747,” Hunter says. and French cruise/long-range pre- the high-speed option, currently base- “[The study shows] it would be cision-strike and anti-ship missiles, lined on supersonic capability, could possible for the UK to develop a hy- including the air-launched SCALP/ be extended to hypersonic speeds of personic glide vehicle, but there would Storm Shadow as well as the air- and Mach 5-plus. be significant challenges including ac- ship-launched Exocet and Harpoon an- Peter Hall, head of aerodynamics

Hypersonic Defense Concept Targets Air Volumes

AS GOVERNMENTS AND THE AEROSPACE INDUSTRY GRAPPLE Assuming a head-on engagement, the missile would re- with the challenges of developing hypersonic countermea- quire around 35 sec. detection time—or around 200 km sures, even outline details of concepts for missile defense distance—prior to launch, providing time for last-second have remained classified. However, a notional system propagated targeting coordinates to be uploaded and dubbed the Quartet Interceptor, unveiled at the Royal sufficient time for intercept. The first stage would boost Aeronautical Society’s recent hypersonic conference, pro- for 6 sec. to place the missile at an altitude and speed at vides clues as to how some architectures may evolve. which the subinterceptors would separate, spread out and Conceived by Cranfield University researcher John Mar- begin flying preprogrammed trajectories toward a target kow, the Quartet is designed to use current or near-term air volume. propulsion, systems and seeker technology to meet the With a rocket burn time of around 10 sec., each inter- challenges of very brief engagement timelines and geome- ceptor would fly at up to Mach 8 toward the air volume and tries, hard-to-detect targets and precise fuse and warhead activate a seeker with a detection range of around 15 km. timings. The ground-launched system would be based “The subinterceptors decelerate to about 2000 m/sec. and on large, 5-6-m-long (16-20-ft.) vehicles incorporating a home in on their assigned section. At least one will find booster and multiple rocket-boosted subinterceptors. the target and intercept it,” says Markow. To compensate “The idea is to launch when the target is still relatively for the short time available for the end-game intercept, he far away, on the order of 10s of kilometers,” says Markow, says various solutions could be considered, including link- who modeled the system on inbound hypersonic missiles ing the warhead fuser to merger cues from Doppler chang- approaching at Mach 6-8 and altitudes up to 15 km (9 mi.). es in the pulse repetition frequency of the seeker. c

16 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST HYPERSONICS alpha (angle of attack) and an altitude quiring the rocket technology, aero- ti-ship missiles. “The program is early for MBDA UK, stresses the impor- the UK has “some dialog with the U.S. frame to develop a defensive capabil- of 30 km, the vehicle had a lift-to-drag dynamic prediction and control, and in the concept stages and represents tance of leveraging existing European from an exploitation and countering ity. “[But] through our collaborative ratio of 3.5. “That’s not quite as good thermal protection systems,” Hunter an opportunity for the UK and France partnerships to advance hypersonic viewpoint,” says Bollom. “At this stage, e orts, particularly with MDA, there as we hoped. But the good aspect of says. “If we did it, the weapon would to build on the hugely successful fam- missile developments in a timely and our spending is relatively modest with- is clearly an opportunity and an area that is we have quite a wide peak on be highly capable.” ily that has produced Storm Shadow, cost-e ective manner. The company, in the research program, but as oppor- of signifi cant interest to MDA,” Dack the lift-to-drag curve, which means we International hypersonic develop- Meteor, Brimstone, Perseus [and] Sea which is studying hypersonics for the tunities within hypersonics emerge, says. “That is the lead organization should be able to fly at higher lift-to- ment partnerships are the most likely Ceptor—to name a few,” says Bollom. UK’s Complex Weapons Program, we’d look to weigh them against many in research and development in the drag ratio for a wide range of opera- option for the UK, says Air Marshal “We are studying some concepts “sees a lot of benefit from working competing defense priorities.” U.S., particularly for hypersonic glide tional conditions,” Hunter says. (ret.) Simon Bollom, CEO of Defence at present, and this brings an inter- with other nations,” says Hall. The At the same time the UK’s interest vehicles, and there are UK players The results indicated the vehicle can Equipment and Support, the keynote esting trade-off into play between pan-European partnership avoids du- and involvement in hypersonic weap- supporting the U.S. mission.” get “600-km cross-range and change speaker at the conference. “The cost speed and low observability,” he says. plication, pools resources and reduces ons systems is in its very early phases. He adds: “Multinational engage- heading by up to 90 deg. azimuth. That associated with developing a weapon “The program has down-selected to costs, he adds. “We are literally in the proof-of-con- ment is key to our work, [as is] the means defenders would have to pro- or air vehicles would probably be pro- two main concepts with a number of MBDA, which is evaluating the cept stages, and the research as it strong relationship with the U.S. MDA tect across a huge range, which would hibitive at a single-nation level, and if derivatives: one based on high speed ASN4G, a high-supersonic or hyper- stands at the moment is to understand enabled through a [memorandum of be a big challenge,” he adds. we are going to get into this technol- and the other on low observability. sonic successor to the French ASMP-A the technology that’s out there and the understanding] signed in 2003 be- The glide vehicle would be boosted ogy, we are probably going to have to The two workstreams are probably supersonic stand-o missile, “is head- range of requirements we would need tween the UK and U.S. . . . This ar- to a deployment altitude of 65 km by collaborate,” he says. not compatible in a single system at ing toward having full-scale hypersonic to put together to counter these weap- rangement had allowed us to under- air-launch on a two-stage solid rock- While the UK is beginning its initial this stage, and it is likely we’ll have to [liquid] ramjet test facilities available,” ons,” says Bollom. take many collaborative activities and et from beneath the wing of a Boeing forays into potential hypersonic weap- take one or both paths to deliver the says Hall. “Germany has similar test The UK also has the potential for generated data analysis for the benefi t 747-400. The 747 design incorporates ons projects with the U.S., the bulk of full capability across a demanding set facilities for solid rocket ramjets.” The collaboration in hypersonic defense of both our nations.” a built-in structural hardpoint, orig- the nation’s missile investment is with of requirements.” company also has access to a “wealth” through its close relationship with the “Hypersonic missile defense may inally designed for carrying spare France through MBDA. “Much of the His comments support speculation of high-temperature-capable materials U.S. Missile Defense Agency (MDA) well be the most e ective area to in- engines, which provides a convenient hypersonic subject-matter-expert that the program is moving toward across Europe and to specialist seeker says Paul Dack, chief scientist of the vest in, and it may well be this that location for a mounting for rocket knowledge in this partnership resides development of a subsonic, low-ob- and missile control system technology UK Missile Defense Center (MDCT), a becomes the limit of our ambition in launching. in MBDA France, and the UK is work- servable, air-launched weapon to in the UK. MBDA’s European arm, led Defense Ministry-led government-in- terms of taking a program forward,” The same design forms the basis of ing with France to develop a future replace the SCALP/Storm Shadow by France, is also working on Twist- dustry partnership. Established in Bollom says. “The defense against Virgin Orbit’s 747-based LauncherOne cruise anti-ship weapon for entry into missile and a higher-speed missile to er (Timely Warning and Interception 2003 to address requirements, issues cruise challenging and difficult, smallsat delivery system. The com- service in the late 2020s,” says Bollom. replace the air- and surface-launched with Space-based TheatER Surveil- and opportunities related to ballistic since they remain in the atmosphere plete DSTL concept stack is 13.5 m Launched in 2017, the joint pro - anti-ship Exocet and Harpoon mis- lance), an endoatmospheric intercep- missile defense, the MDCT’s remit has throughout their fl ight times.” long and weighs in at 16,300 kg, “so it gram is targeted at replacing British siles. It remains unknown whether tor designed to tackle ballistic missiles been expanded in recent years to “in- Pointing out that the U.S. already does fit on the 747,” Hunter says. and French cruise/long-range pre- the high-speed option, currently base- and next-generation threats including clude maneuvering reentry vehicles fi elds a number of anti-cruise missiles “[The study shows] it would be cision-strike and anti-ship missiles, lined on supersonic capability, could hypersonic glide vehicles. and latterly hypersonic systems and including the SM-2, SM-6, NIADS possible for the UK to develop a hy- including the air-launched SCALP/ be extended to hypersonic speeds of Aside from national research e orts more specifi cally hypersonic glide ve- and Evolved Sea Sparrow systems, personic glide vehicle, but there would Storm Shadow as well as the air- and Mach 5-plus. through DSTL with British industrial hicles,” Dack says. he notes that none are designed for be significant challenges including ac- ship-launched Exocet and Harpoon an- Peter Hall, head of aerodynamics aerospace and defense contractors, There is currently no specifi c time countering hypersonic missiles. c

Hypersonic Defense Concept Targets Air Volumes I C

AS GOVERNMENTS AND THE AEROSPACE INDUSTRY GRAPPLE Assuming a head-on engagement, the missile would re- Subinterceptors (two more on rear side) Protective with the challenges of developing hypersonic countermea- quire around 35 sec. detection time—or around 200 km Shielding sures, even outline details of concepts for missile defense distance—prior to launch, providing time for last-second Mating Foldable Booster Structure Detachment Wings: have remained classified. However, a notional system propagated targeting coordinates to be uploaded and Fins Stowed (solid) dubbed the Quartet Interceptor, unveiled at the Royal sufficient time for intercept. The first stage would boost Unfolded (outline) Aeronautical Society’s recent hypersonic conference, pro- for 6 sec. to place the missile at an altitude and speed at vides clues as to how some architectures may evolve. which the subinterceptors would separate, spread out and Conceived by Cranfield University researcher John Mar- begin flying preprogrammed trajectories toward a target 22 in. (55 cm) kow, the Quartet is designed to use current or near-term air volume. 6.7 in. (17 cm) propulsion, systems and seeker technology to meet the With a rocket burn time of around 10 sec., each inter- challenges of very brief engagement timelines and geome- ceptor would fly at up to Mach 8 toward the air volume and tries, hard-to-detect targets and precise fuse and warhead activate a seeker with a detection range of around 15 km. timings. The ground-launched system would be based “The subinterceptors decelerate to about 2000 m/sec. and 5.6 ft. 10.5 ft. Missile Mount on large, 5-6-m-long (16-20-ft.) vehicles incorporating a home in on their assigned section. At least one will find (1.7 m) (3.2 m) (computer and electronics internal) booster and multiple rocket-boosted subinterceptors. the target and intercept it,” says Markow. To compensate O 2,560 lb. (1,160 kg) “The idea is to launch when the target is still relatively for the short time available for the end-game intercept, he 1,365 lb. (620 kg) far away, on the order of 10s of kilometers,” says Markow, says various solutions could be considered, including link- 4 X 2,000 lb. (100 kg) who modeled the system on inbound hypersonic missiles ing the warhead fuser to merger cues from Doppler chang- approaching at Mach 6-8 and altitudes up to 15 km (9 mi.). es in the pulse repetition frequency of the seeker. c 310 lb. (140 kg) Source: Cranﬁ eld University

16 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 1 COMMERCIAL AVIATION > Supply chain drop-off p. 21 Revised SpaceJet flight p. 23 Asian domestic networks p. 24 Chinese airline recovery p. 24 Life Support

> U.S. AIRLINES AND AEROSPACE COMPANIES TO RECEIVE GRANTS AND LOANS

> EUROPE, ASIA-PACIFIC GOVERNMENTS LAUNCH MULTITUDE OF RESCUE PLANS

Ben Goldstein, Michael Bruno and Sean Broderick Washington, Helen Massy- Airlines are grounding thousands of Beresford Paris, Adrian Schofield Auckland and Jens Flottau Frankfurt aircraft as air travel comes to a halt.

s air traffic began to move in markets that have been vacated by option in that time frame, the industry toward a level of zero in key those who fell by the wayside. would burn up to $61 billion in cash in Amarkets the past few weeks, Major conflicts are already emerg- the next three months (see graph, page the major players in aerospace and ing between airlines. Virgin Australia 20). IATA Director General and CEO air transport were soon very clear on is requesting a loan guarantee of A$1.4 Alexandre de Juniac says he is “fully one point: For this industry to sur- billion ($2.3 billion) from the govern- conscious of the inconvenience” the in- vive, bailouts would be needed. And ment so that it can survive, as part of troduction of vouchers would mean, as they would have to be big bailouts, a broader industry package. But its customers would not get their money to support the supply chain, aircraft much larger rival Qantas opposes a back at least in the short term. “But for manufacturers and airlines globally. bailout specifically for Virgin. If mon- us it is a matter of survival,” he says. Within days—often as part of gen- ey is allocated nonetheless to Virgin IATA expects the industry as a eral economic rescue packages—finan- Australia, Qantas wants three times whole to lose $39 billion in the second cial support at an unprecedented scale that amount, given the size difference quarter, versus a $7 billion profit in the was firmly on its way in some countries, between the carriers. In the UK, Virgin same period a year earlier. Revenues first and foremost in the U.S., which Atlantic is lobbying hard for state sup- for the quarter will be down 68% (and has been clear that it will do whatev- port, but International Airlines Group 38% for the full year) from the same er is needed to keep the sector intact. (IAG) and its UK unit British Airways periods a year ago, according to the This includes measures unthinkable say they are not asking for public funds latest estimates. For the quarter, IATA less than a month ago. But globally and are lobbying behind the scenes expects the industry to reduce capital the picture is less clear. Some coun- against aid for their rival. expenditures, including for new air- tries—many with a legacy of an active The International Air Transport craft, to zero from $17 billion in 2019. government industrial policy, such as Association (IATA) estimates air- As a result, Airbus and Boeing will France—appear equally committed to lines will need $200 billion globally in basically be unable to find airline cus- aviation, while other important players rescue funds to avoid a collapses on a tomers willing to accept aircraft in the such as the UK are telling their airlines major scale. next three months. And de Juniac says not to expect special treatment. Beyond the dearth of traffic, pas- no airline will be ready to buy new or As has been the case in past disputes senger refunds are the single biggest used aircraft “in the next 6-9 months.” over state aid, there is a major risk of it near-term threat to liquidity. IATA is In the U.S., President Donald Trump distorting competition if the measures pushing for broad adoption of travel signed into law a sweeping $2 trillion are not harmonized. They have not vouchers in place of passenger re - coronavirus rescue package, including been—and the financial volumes of the funds when flights are canceled. IATA up to $58 billion in financial aid to help aid packages will make market distor- warned that the refunds are a potential airlines blunt the financial impact of tion an even more pressing issue post- liability for the industry of up to $35 the COVID-19 pandemic. COVID-19, as state-sponsored carriers billion in the second quarter alone. If The 883-page Coronavirus Aid, Re- compete with privately funded airlines all customers were to use the refund lief, and Economic Security (CARES)

18 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMERCIAL AVIATION > Supply chain drop-off p. 21 Revised SpaceJet flight p. 23 Asian domestic networks p. 24 Chinese airline recovery p. 24

Updates Follow coronavirus coverage from across the Aviation Week Network United Airlines CEO Oscar Munoz if the government will not step in, other funders will. at: AviationWeek.com/coronavirus and President Scott Kirby said in Life Support a candid message to the company’s By contrast, Airbus—like Boeing Check 6 AAR Corp. CEO John Holmes 100,000 employees that there will be faced with an avalanche of delivery de- joined the company just before the Sept. U.S. AIRLINES AND AEROSPACE COMPANIES no furloughs or layoffs through Sept. 30 ferrals and preparing for substantial > 11 terrorist attacks and helped lead it TO RECEIVE GRANTS AND LOANS as per the law but added that some production cuts—is asking that Euro- through the global economic meltdown downsizing may still be needed follow- pean governments not step in directly and a dire workforce shortage. Hear ing that date if air travel demand fails to aid it but instead focus on support EUROPE, ASIA-PACIFIC GOVERNMENTS how AAR is preparing for the COVID-19 > to rebound in a meaningful way. “If the for suppliers and airlines. LAUNCH MULTITUDE OF RESCUE PLANS downturn: AviationWeek.com/podcast recovery is as slow as we fear, it means Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury our airline and our workforce will have stressed that the company has a strong Act will provide $29 billion in work- to be smaller than it is today,” they said. balance sheet and “significant liquidity force grants for airline workers, avert- The legislation provides U.S. air- available to cope with additional cash ing the possibility of mass furloughs ports $10 billion in additional FAA requirements related to COVID-19.” for the next six months. Airport Improvement Program funds, The company now has access to a new The grants include $25 billion for authorized “for any purpose for which €15 billion ($16 billion) credit facility passenger carriers, $4 billion for cargo airport revenues may lawfully be used.” that increases its available liquidity JEFF SWENSEN/GETTY IMAGES airlines and an additional $3 billion for “The funding and flexibility provided from €25 billion as of the end of 2019 contractors such as caterers and air- by Congress will help airports cover new by almost another €5 billion. This is de- port workers. All of the money must operating costs, avoid defaults on their spite a €3.6 billion compliance penalty go toward employee pay and benefits. bonds and keep people working during payment to authorities, €500 million Airlines that accept the funds will be these challenging times,” says Airport for the acquisition of Bombardier’s barred from involuntarily furloughing Council International-North America share in the Airbus Canada partner- employees through Sept. 30. President and CEO Kevin Burke. ship and the funding of operations in Carriers receiving federal assis- An additional carve-out will pro- what normally is a low-delivery time Ben Goldstein, Michael Bruno and Sean Broderick Washington, Helen Massy- Airlines are grounding thousands of tance will also be prohibited from vide $17 billion to national security of the year. Beresford Paris, Adrian Schofield Auckland and Jens Flottau Frankfurt aircraft as air travel comes to a halt. repurchasing stock or paying out div- contractors, likely including aero- European airlines have been slash- idends through Sept. 30, 2021, and will s air traffic began to move in markets that have been vacated by option in that time frame, the industry have to abide by certain limits on exec- Daily European Network Trafﬁc Evolution toward a level of zero in key those who fell by the wayside. would burn up to $61 billion in cash in utive pay increases. The act includes a markets the past few weeks, Major conflicts are already emerg- the next three months (see graph, page provision that would allow the federal A the major players in aerospace and ing between airlines. Virgin Australia 20). IATA Director General and CEO government to receive warrants, debt air transport were soon very clear on is requesting a loan guarantee of A$1.4 Alexandre de Juniac says he is “fully securities or equity in exchange for the one point: For this industry to sur- billion ($2.3 billion) from the govern- conscious of the inconvenience” the in- aid, although it is still unclear how this vive, bailouts would be needed. And ment so that it can survive, as part of troduction of vouchers would mean, as measure will be implemented. they would have to be big bailouts, a broader industry package. But its customers would not get their money The aid package also makes a fur- back at least in the short term. “But for to support the supply chain, aircraft much larger rival Qantas opposes a ther $29 billion in loans and loan manufacturers and airlines globally. bailout specifically for Virgin. If mon- us it is a matter of survival,” he says. guarantees available to cover losses Within days—often as part of gen- ey is allocated nonetheless to Virgin IATA expects the industry as a unrelated to labor expenses, although eral economic rescue packages—finan- Australia, Qantas wants three times whole to lose $39 billion in the second analysts question whether carriers cial support at an unprecedented scale that amount, given the size difference quarter, versus a $7 billion profit in the will opt for the loans, given the re - was firmly on its way in some countries, between the carriers. In the UK, Virgin same period a year earlier. Revenues strictive terms and conditions in the first and foremost in the U.S., which Atlantic is lobbying hard for state sup- for the quarter will be down 68% (and legislation and airlines’ ready access has been clear that it will do whatev- port, but International Airlines Group 38% for the full year) from the same to private capital markets. Airlines Source: Eurocontrol er is needed to keep the sector intact. (IAG) and its UK unit British Airways periods a year ago, according to the also secured suspension of a host of This includes measures unthinkable say they are not asking for public funds latest estimates. For the quarter, IATA aviation taxes through the end of the space companies such as Boeing and ing their flight schedules, by the end of less than a month ago. But globally and are lobbying behind the scenes expects the industry to reduce capital year, including taxes paid on domestic General Electric, the former of which March leaving only the bare minimum the picture is less clear. Some coun- against aid for their rival. expenditures, including for new air- tickets, international arrivals and de- Source: Eurocontrolhas separately called on Congress for of services operating to bring home tries—many with a legacy of an active The International Air Transport craft, to zero from $17 billion in 2019. partures, award-mile purchases, cargo $60 billion spread out across the aero- stranded nationals or maintain essen- government industrial policy, such as Association (IATA) estimates air- As a result, Airbus and Boeing will and kerosene. space supply chain. tial transport links. In addition, calls France—appear equally committed to lines will need $200 billion globally in basically be unable to find airline cus- American Airlines Chairman and Boeing proffered itself as the clear- for support from national governments aviation, while other important players rescue funds to avoid a collapses on a tomers willing to accept aircraft in the CEO Doug Parker said in a video inghouse for all of the $60 billion-plus and the European Union intensified. such as the UK are telling their airlines major scale. next three months. And de Juniac says message that the Fort Worth-based it originally asked for, meaning Boeing Italy, where the novel coronavirus not to expect special treatment. Beyond the dearth of traffic, pas- no airline will be ready to buy new or airline—the country’s largest by fleet ostensibly would dole out funds to has hit hardest so far in Europe, acted As has been the case in past disputes senger refunds are the single biggest used aircraft “in the next 6-9 months.” size and passengers flown—will be el- suppliers as appropriate. Also, Boeing decisively. Its national carrier Alitalia over state aid, there is a major risk of it near-term threat to liquidity. IATA is In the U.S., President Donald Trump igible to receive $12 billion of the total sought the funds without strings at- was already in trouble before the out- distorting competition if the measures pushing for broad adoption of travel signed into law a sweeping $2 trillion $50 billion in financial aid available for tached. President and CEO David break, three years into an unsuccessful are not harmonized. They have not vouchers in place of passenger re - coronavirus rescue package, including passenger carriers. Calhoun contends that aid to Boeing, search for a route out of bankruptcy. been—and the financial volumes of the funds when flights are canceled. IATA up to $58 billion in financial aid to help “We are confident that those funds, and secondarily its suppliers, is a gov- Italy plans to nationalize the airline. aid packages will make market distor- warned that the refunds are a potential airlines blunt the financial impact of along with our relatively high available ernment imperative for numerous rea- According to Italian media, the new tion an even more pressing issue post- liability for the industry of up to $35 the COVID-19 pandemic. cash position, will allow us to ride sons. He also insists that the future of Alitalia could see its fleet reduced to COVID-19, as state-sponsored carriers billion in the second quarter alone. If The 883-page Coronavirus Aid, Re- through even the worst potential fu- commercial aviation remains bright, 25-30 aircraft, around a quarter of compete with privately funded airlines all customers were to use the refund lief, and Economic Security (CARES) ture scenario,” Parker said. the long-term business case holds, and the current total, therefore making it

18 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 19 COMMERCIAL AVIATION

an entity of negligible size. The move ployee salaries for a period of up to 12 dustry during the crisis. Some moved to nationalize Alitalia is part of a €25 months if they are forced into part-time early to introduce packages based on billion economic support package ap- work. Condor and TUIfly have asked waivers of fees and charges, and state- proved on March 16 aimed at helping for government-backed loans to bridge backed loans for airlines have been of- the country, which is still in lockdown, the period during which essentially fered. Some governments are consid- recover from the COVID-19 crisis. no flights are taking place. Industry ering additional forms of financial aid French authorities have promised sources say they are likely to be helped. for carriers, with more likely to follow. to do whatever it takes to support the Condor could be taken over temporari- The Singapore government is a lead- big companies in France, including Air ly by the government through the KfW er in this regard, unveiling significant France-KLM, in which it holds a 14.3% development bank. measures to help aviation and other stake. Economy Minister Bruno Le Norwegian Air Shuttle was in trouble sectors on March 26. These include Maire said March 19: “We have several before the COVID-19 crisis hit, but the funding 75% of up to S$4,600 ($3,200) options on the table for all big industrial long-haul low-cost carrier said March of aviation workers’ monthly pay and companies that could be under threat 24 that it had reached an agreement providing S$350 million in fee relief for on the market. They include increasing with banks that would allow it to unlock airlines. This is part of a massive S$48 or taking a stake, or even nationaliza- an initial tranche of state-backed aid. billion economic stimulus package an- tions. All options will be studied and The Norwegian government launched nounced by the government. Singapore Airlines (SIA) is raising up to S$15 billion through the issue of A I E S C new shares and bonds, with the back- ing of its majority shareholder, state- $80 owned Temasek Holdings. SIA will 60 offer shareholders S$5.3 billion in new equity and up to S$9.7 billion through 40 Cash burn of 10-year mandatory convertible bonds. 20 $61 billion in These will be offered to them on a second quarter pro-rata basis, and both issuances will 0 be treated as equity on the company’s -20 balance sheet, says SIA.

-40 SIA has also arranged a S$4 billion

U.S. $ billion during quarter bridge loan facility with DBS Bank, -60 which it said will support “near-term

-80 liquidity requirements.” South Korea has deferred payments Tax CAPEX of airport landing, parking and facility Revenue Cash burn Crew costs Fixed costs Debt interest fees. State-run banks have also agreed Variable costs Semi-ﬁxed costs to provide 300 billion won ($245 mil- Source: IATA Working capital charge lion) in unsecured loans to help low- cost carriers that have been hard-hit presented very soon to the president. a 6 billion Norwegian krone ($580 mil- by plummeting air traffic. The most We willSource: then IATA take action as and when lion) loan guarantee package for the recent step is a proposal for a 30-50% it is needed according to market con- country’s airlines, with up to half of aircraft property tax reduction for ma- ditions, with the sole strategic aim of that earmarked for Norwegian. But the jor airlines including Korean Air and preserving our key industries.” government said its provision of 90% of Asiana Airlines, although it has yet to The French government will have to the total sum was contingent on the fi- be finalized by the government. work out a way to coordinate help for nancial sector supplying the remaining South Korea’s Ministry of Infrastruc- Air France-KLM with the Netherlands, 10%. Finland has also proposed a €600 ture, Land and Transport has met with which owns a 14% stake in the airline million statutory pension premium loan airlines to explore measures to help the group. The Dutch government made guarantee for Finnair. industry. Airlines also held a separate the controversial purchase of the stake Meanwhile in the UK, the govern- meeting to discuss potential options for a year ago to give it a voice in strategic ment has effectively told the country’s government aid and are likely to push decisions for the group. airlines that they must exhaust all for further assistance. In Germany, too, the government other avenues to shore up their cash The Hong Kong Airport Authority, has launched a multibillion-euro res- reserves and protect their liquidity backed by the government, has rolled cue package from which airlines, OEMs before turning to the treasury for as- out an HK$1 billion ($129 million) and aerospace suppliers can benefit. sistance. UK Finance Minister Rishi package of financial relief to the avia- Lufthansa is in talks with the govern- Sunak wrote to airlines and airports tion industry. About two-thirds of this ment about loan guarantees and other March 24 insisting that they first tap comprises a government waiver of air options, including a minority share- their own shareholders for additional traffic control charges for the 2019-20 holding after the airline has cut back. funding to get them through the cur- year, which will be passed on to users. Like other businesses, it benefits from rent crisis. Other forms of airport fee relief for recently passed legislation that allows Asia-Pacific governments also are airlines and airport users make up the the state to partially take over em- taking steps to support the airline in- remaining third of the package. c

20 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMERCIAL AVIATION an entity of negligible size. The move ployee salaries for a period of up to 12 dustry during the crisis. Some moved The Aerospace Supply Chain’s later this year, lower long-term rates. to nationalize Alitalia is part of a €25 months if they are forced into part-time early to introduce packages based on He has lots of company in thinking billion economic support package ap- work. Condor and TUIfly have asked waivers of fees and charges, and state- Worst Falloff Ever that. “With airlines globally effective- proved on March 16 aimed at helping for government-backed loans to bridge backed loans for airlines have been of- ly parking the vast majority of their the country, which is still in lockdown, the period during which essentially fered. Some governments are consid- > ANALYSTS SEE 25% HITS TO NARROWBODIES AND WIDEBODIES fleets and an airline industry recovery recover from the COVID-19 crisis. no flights are taking place. Industry ering additional forms of financial aid likely to take several years, we expect French authorities have promised sources say they are likely to be helped. for carriers, with more likely to follow. > FACTORIES STRUGGLE UNDER HEALTH QUARANTINES AND aircraft production rates at Airbus to do whatever it takes to support the Condor could be taken over temporari- The Singapore government is a lead- WORKER FEARS and Boeing to fall materially,” says an- big companies in France, including Air ly by the government through the KfW er in this regard, unveiling significant alyst Cameron Doerksen of National France-KLM, in which it holds a 14.3% development bank. measures to help aviation and other Michael Bruno Washington and Thierry Dubois Lyon Bank of Canada Financial Markets. stake. Economy Minister Bruno Le Norwegian Air Shuttle was in trouble sectors on March 26. These include “Demand for new aircraft will collapse Maire said March 19: “We have several before the COVID-19 crisis hit, but the funding 75% of up to S$4,600 ($3,200) year ago, many commercial Tier 1 defense primes and OEMs ap- in the near term.” options on the table for all big industrial long-haul low-cost carrier said March of aviation workers’ monthly pay and aerospace suppliers were parently are not cutting workforces Analysts Rob Stallard and Karl Oehl- companies that could be under threat 24 that it had reached an agreement providing S$350 million in fee relief for A wondering how they were yet, many—Boeing for one—have fro- schlaeger of Vertical Research Part- on the market. They include increasing with banks that would allow it to unlock airlines. This is part of a massive S$48 ever going to meet rising production zen hiring. They also are rushing to ners foresee a 40% plummet in reve- or taking a stake, or even nationaliza- an initial tranche of state-backed aid. billion economic stimulus package an- rates set by leading OEMs as industry secure billions of dollars in new financ- nue passenger miles (RPM) this year, tions. All options will be studied and The Norwegian government launched nounced by the government. faced historic backlogs of airliners to ing as a short-term liquidity freeze the largest RPM drop in the history of Singapore Airlines (SIA) is raising build. Now some suppliers might be roils every market. In the latter half of commercial aviation. Looking beyond up to S$15 billion through the issue of wondering if they can even survive in March, Northrop Grumman priced that, they see a revised requirement A I E S C new shares and bonds, with the back- the post-COVID-19 world. $2.25 billion in debt, General Dynam- for around 6,300 new aircraft over the ing of its majority shareholder, state- For the aerospace manufacturing ics unveiled $4 billion in long-term next five years, compared with their $80 owned Temasek Holdings. SIA will sector, the novel coronavi- previous forecast of about 60 offer shareholders S$5.3 billion in new rus pandemic and ensuing Companies More Exposed 8,300 aircraft. By type, equity and up to S$9.7 billion through economic falloff combines they envision about 1,540 40 to the Commercial Aftermarket Cash burn of 10-year mandatory convertible bonds. the sudden shock of lost fewer narrowbodies and Degree of focus on civil aerospace 20 $61 billion in These will be offered to them on a business after the Sept. 11, roughly 380 fewer wide- second quarter pro-rata basis, and both issuances will 2001, terrorist attacks with bodies, both roughly 25% 0 be treated as equity on the company’s the drip-drip of worsen- cuts versus their prior de- -20 balance sheet, says SIA. ing news during the 2008 mand model. The market

-40 SIA has also arranged a S$4 billion financial crisis and Great for widebodies will be hurt

U.S. $ billion during quarter bridge loan facility with DBS Bank, Recession. It is shaping more than for narrowbod- -60 which it said will support “near-term up to be the worst collapse ies, cementing the latter

-80 liquidity requirements.” in business that commer- as the unrivaled airliner South Korea has deferred payments cial aerospace and the for decades, according to Tax CAPEX of airport landing, parking and facility aftermarket have ever multiple analysts and con- Revenue Cash burn Crew costs Fixed costs Debt interest fees. State-run banks have also agreed seen, while other corners sultants. The biggest risk Variable costs Semi-ﬁxed costs to provide 300 billion won ($245 mil- for delivery cuts are to the Source: IATA of aerospace and defense Working capital charge lion) in unsecured loans to help low- (A&D) struggle through Boeing 777 and 787, and cost carriers that have been hard-hit related challenges such the Airbus A330 and A350. presented very soon to the president. a 6 billion Norwegian krone ($580 mil- by plummeting air traffic. The most as liquidity crunches and of focus on the aftermarket* Degree Delivery drop-offs also We willSource: then IATA take action as and when lion) loan guarantee package for the recent step is a proposal for a 30-50% closed factories. Industry would be exacerbated by it is needed according to market con- country’s airlines, with up to half of aircraft property tax reduction for ma- consultants note conversa- * Includes defense services an expected sharp increase ditions, with the sole strategic aim of that earmarked for Norwegian. But the jor airlines including Korean Air and tions with corporate clients Note: GE represents GE Aviation; Honeywell represents Honeywell Aerospace in aircraft retirements. Ag- preserving our key industries.” government said its provision of 90% of Asiana Airlines, although it has yet to where Friday’s worst-case ing, larger models are es- The French government will have to the total sum was contingent on the fi- be finalized by the government. scenario becomes Mon- Source: Roland Berger pecially vulnerable for sev- work out a way to coordinate help for nancial sector supplying the remaining South Korea’s Ministry of Infrastruc- day’s best-case desire. notes, and Honeywell International eral reasons, including fuel inefficiency Air France-KLM with the Netherlands, 10%. Finland has also proposed a €600 ture, Land and Transport has met with Each business day seems to bring announced a $6 billion loan agreement. and looming maintenance check costs. which owns a 14% stake in the airline million statutory pension premium loan airlines to explore measures to help the an announcement of another commer- “The biggest question is what is Targeted fleets could include Boeing group. The Dutch government made guarantee for Finnair. industry. Airlines also held a separate cial supplier in Tier 2 or below laying going to happen with air travel, and 747s, 757s and 767s and Airbus A380s. the controversial purchase of the stake Meanwhile in the UK, the govern- meeting to discuss potential options for off staff, shelving investments, cutting here the spread of scenarios is quite Even middle-aged A320s and 737 Next a year ago to give it a voice in strategic ment has effectively told the country’s government aid and are likely to push pay and taking other actions aimed at wide, from a ‘decent recovery by the Generation airframes might be retired. decisions for the group. airlines that they must exhaust all for further assistance. shoring up balance sheets. Triumph end of the year’ to ‘we’ll never get back The effect is a double whammy for In Germany, too, the government other avenues to shore up their cash The Hong Kong Airport Authority, Group, Astronics, CAE and more in to where we were before the crisis’ be- many suppliers, particularly those has launched a multibillion-euro res- reserves and protect their liquidity backed by the government, has rolled March announced workforce cuts, cause behaviors will have changed, at- that boosted their focus and revenue cue package from which airlines, OEMs before turning to the treasury for as- out an HK$1 billion ($129 million) following those of TransDigm Group, titudes will have changed,” says Man- generation around commercial after- and aerospace suppliers can benefit. sistance. UK Finance Minister Rishi package of financial relief to the avia- Spirit AeroSystems and others in Jan- fred Hader, co-head of Roland Berger’s market opportunities (see graphic). Lufthansa is in talks with the govern- Sunak wrote to airlines and airports tion industry. About two-thirds of this uary and February. Wichita aerostruc- global A&D practice. Roland Berger, Oliver Wyman, JP ment about loan guarantees and other March 24 insisting that they first tap comprises a government waiver of air tures giant Spirit warns more tighten- He says the pandemic is the “second Morgan analysts and others have options, including a minority share- their own shareholders for additional traffic control charges for the 2019-20 ing could be coming. General Electric black swan to hit in a row,” following warned of a hit of up to 40% to after- holding after the airline has cut back. funding to get them through the cur- year, which will be passed on to users. Aviation has furloughed workers. the Boeing 737 MAX’s production halt. market revenue streams this year. Like other businesses, it benefits from rent crisis. Other forms of airport fee relief for Several suppliers also announced Hader predicts Airbus and Boeing will There are few places to hide. Suppli- recently passed legislation that allows Asia-Pacific governments also are airlines and airport users make up the that they have drawn down lines of announce new, lower, 2020 produc- ers will not be able to diversify much the state to partially take over em- taking steps to support the airline in- remaining third of the package. c credit available to them. And while tion rates for airliners in April—and into business jets, for instance, as an-

20 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 21 COMMERCIAL AVIATION US D I H S

GINI

alysts continue to sour on the pros- fi nal assembly facility for the F-35, Gov- see a problem in a 2-3-week production pects for Bombardier and Embraer as ini notes. The latest monthly survey of suspension, comparing it to a busi- stand-alone business aircraft-makers local businesses from the Federal Re- ness-as-usual holiday period. Despite due to the potential for a permanent serve Bank of Dallas, released March protection measures on site, a CGT reduction in business travel from in- 30, found plenty of angst. “Business clo- representative would rather avoid hun- fection fears and recession cutbacks. sures are causing supply-chain disrup- dreds of workers propagating the virus. “Demand for business jets is histor- tions/stoppages and must end quick- Still, unions stopped short of using ically linked to the broader business ly—within two weeks—or the impact the so-called right of withdrawal, seen cycle, so the coming recession will al- will last a decade in my opinion,” one as their “nuclear option.” Under that most certainly hurt demand for new manufacturing executive told the bank. clause, if an employee perceives a “se- business jets,” Doerksen says. It sounds the same in France. For rious and imminent” danger to their The defense industrial base—now the supply chain, the bottom line is health, they may legally stop working. widely considered the best end-market uncertainty. CEOs face difficulties “Unions know a complete stop of in which to be across A&D, due to lon- planning on the number of employees production activity is not in their in- ger-term procurements and govern- who will show up in the morning. terest. They are walking a fi ne line,” ment protection of contractors—is not “People are scared,” says Safran says a French analyst, speaking on beyond risks either. Primes and suppli- CEO Philippe Petitcolin. “We do not condition of anonymity. ers are anxious about the possibility of ask 100% of [our] workers to come For some companies, the conun- having to close facilities due to health to work; we only ask that production drum is more about technical needs quarantines or because workers just lines keep operating to deliver our versus fi nancial risks. Some produc- fear becoming infected, Eric Fannings, products to those customers who are tion facilities are based on continuous Aerospace Industries Association CEO still open for business.” processes, as opposed to the manu- and president, tells Aviation Week. But some smaller businesses have facturing of discrete objects. After a While trade representatives man- halted operations. “Some small sup- shutdown, restarting is complex. aged to help push U.S. Defense and pliers have paused for 2-4 weeks,” says “Take a 3-hectare [7.5-acre] facility Homeland Security department o - Petitcolin. “If they do not resume work with a convoluted network of ducts; cials in March to declare the defense after that period, we will have a hard every gate setting and confi guration sector part of the nation’s critical infra- time.” Safran has an estimated 2-3 is critical for the quality of the fi nal structure—helping defense primes and weeks of production inventory. product,” says Stephane Albernhe, Ar- suppliers to convince state and local of- Unions have expressed reluctance chery Strategy Consulting president. fi cials to allow them to stay open while about resuming work. When Airbus If the facility is shut down, impurities most other businesses shutter—a heat- announced it was partially resuming may form in the ducts and cause “non- map by consultancy Govini of risks to production at its French factories, quality” problems, says Albernhe. Ev- major defense contracting communities unions reacted negatively or, at best, ery setting would have to be redefi ned. shows reason for concern (see map). cautiously. Some, like the CFE-CGC ex- Companies operating such factories For instance, the key centers of ma- ecutive employees union, did not oppose may have to choose the lesser of two jor defense contractors, such as Lock- the resumption, as long as the required evils. Continuing production may cause heed Martin Aeronautics, are in the health protection measures were taken. rocketing inventory costs. Stopping it Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, as is the Others, such as the CGT union, do not may create even greater problems. c

22 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMERCIAL AVIATION MITSISI AIAFTIT US D I H S AW Hed Here Two Lines of Copy Two in the fi nancial year ending March 31, The sixth SpaceJet prototype made 2021. First delivery follows certifi ca- Lines Two Lines its initial ight from the program’s tion, so the delay must be at least nine nal assembly base at Nagoya. months. Looking toward the transfer > DECK COPY HERE ONE LINE of FTV10 to Moses Lake, the spokesman said then: “We will have a better > DECK COPY HERE TWO LINES DECK COPY HERE TWO LINES COPY understanding of our schedule once HERE TWO LINES this happens, because as it begins its portion of our fl ight-test program, we Name Name City will enter the fi nal phase of TC [type certifi cation] fl ight test.” ropCap Interstate Black 9.5 on The twin-engine SpaceJet is pow- 10/5 ered by the Pratt & Whitney PW1200. D When the program was launched in 2008, fi rst delivery was scheduled for late 2013. All Nippon Airways is the Mitsubishi Aircraft Flies First launch operator. FTV10, at first called 10010, was SpaceJet of Revised Design tested for basic aircraft performance in normal operating conditions over THE NEXT STEP IS TO SEND THE AIRCRAFT TO MOSES LAKE the Pacific Ocean. The pilots were > Hiroyoshi Takase and Akira Udagawa. GINI > AFTER THAT, THE SCHEDULE SHOULD BECOME CLEARER It handled as expected, Takase says. Four SpaceJets of the superseded alysts continue to sour on the pros- fi nal assembly facility for the F-35, Gov- see a problem in a 2-3-week production Bradley Perrett Beijing design are at Moses Lake. The fi fth pects for Bombardier and Embraer as ini notes. The latest monthly survey of suspension, comparing it to a busi- has been kept at Nagoya for ground stand-alone business aircraft-makers local businesses from the Federal Re- ness-as-usual holiday period. Despite lying a sixth SpaceJet proto- plant. The aircraft is a SpaceJet testing. due to the potential for a permanent serve Bank of Dallas, released March protection measures on site, a CGT type on March 18, Mitsubishi M90—the version designed for 88 All these are also SpaceJet M90s. reduction in business travel from in- 30, found plenty of angst. “Business clo- representative would rather avoid hun- FAircraft took a big step toward passengers in a standard, all-econ- To better suit major U.S. airlines’ pi- fection fears and recession cutbacks. sures are causing supply-chain disrup- dreds of workers propagating the virus. certifi cation of the regional jet, though omy confi guration; it was previously lot contracts—which, contrary to ex- “Demand for business jets is histor- tions/stoppages and must end quick- Still, unions stopped short of using the company is not saying when ex- called the MRJ90. pectations in 2008, have not become ically linked to the broader business ly—within two weeks—or the impact the so-called right of withdrawal, seen actly it hopes to reach that milestone. Most SpaceJet testing is taking less restrictive—the second version cycle, so the coming recession will al- will last a decade in my opinion,” one as their “nuclear option.” Under that The fl ight came 1.5 months after the place in the U.S. at Moses Lake, will be the M100. Despite its designa- most certainly hurt demand for new manufacturing executive told the bank. clause, if an employee perceives a “se- company announced a sixth program Washington. “Our next priority be- tion, it will be smaller than the M90, business jets,” Doerksen says. It sounds the same in France. For rious and imminent” danger to their delay—and for the fi rst time did not comes preparing for the FTV10 ferry with standard all-economy seating for The defense industrial base—now the supply chain, the bottom line is health, they may legally stop working. even name a target date for complet- fl ight to the U.S., joining the fl ight- 84. Within the weight limits that the widely considered the best end-market uncertainty. CEOs face difficulties “Unions know a complete stop of ing development. The extension will test fleet and beginning the final U.S. airlines’ pilot contracts impose in which to be across A&D, due to lon- planning on the number of employees production activity is not in their in- be at least nine months long, however. phase of certifi cation fl ight test,” the on outsourcing carriers, the M100 ger-term procurements and govern- who will show up in the morning. terest. They are walking a fi ne line,” Mitsubishi Aircraft expects to nar- spokesperson says. achieves a better combination of ment protection of contractors—is not “People are scared,” says Safran says a French analyst, speaking on row down its outlook once the new The previous fi ve SpaceJet proto- payload and range than the M90 and beyond risks either. Primes and suppli- CEO Philippe Petitcolin. “We do not condition of anonymity. prototype has joined the program’s types were built before Mitsubishi Air- former MRJ70. ers are anxious about the possibility of ask 100% of [our] workers to come For some companies, the conun- fl ight-testing operation in the U.S. craft discovered in 2016 that design The program lost a major customer having to close facilities due to health to work; we only ask that production drum is more about technical needs The aircraft that fl ew on March 18 changes were necessary to achieve in October, when Trans States Hold- quarantines or because workers just lines keep operating to deliver our versus fi nancial risks. Some produc- is the fi rst that conforms to the new, certification. Avionics and wiring ings canceled an agreement to buy fear becoming infected, Eric Fannings, products to those customers who are tion facilities are based on continuous certifi able design of the regional jet, needed to be moved to improve sur- 50 SpaceJets and take options on 50 Aerospace Industries Association CEO still open for business.” processes, as opposed to the manu- formerly called the MRJ. The proto- vivability in case of water ingress or more. That company, the owner of and president, tells Aviation Week. But some smaller businesses have facturing of discrete objects. After a type, FTV10, will be the one used most explosions. This prompted the com- several carriers in the U.S., has since While trade representatives man- halted operations. “Some small sup- shutdown, restarting is complex. heavily for the remaining test-fl ying pany to defer scheduled fi rst delivery decided to close one of them, Trans aged to help push U.S. Defense and pliers have paused for 2-4 weeks,” says “Take a 3-hectare [7.5-acre] facility for the program, the company says. from mid-2018 to mid-2020. States Airlines. Homeland Security department o - Petitcolin. “If they do not resume work with a convoluted network of ducts; Two more aircraft of that design But that outlook became highly The contract was replaced by one cials in March to declare the defense after that period, we will have a hard every gate setting and confi guration are in the fi nal stages of production, doubtful in November 2019, when from Mesa Airlines in the previous sector part of the nation’s critical infra- time.” Safran has an estimated 2-3 is critical for the quality of the fi nal a spokesperson says. Mitsubishi Air- Mitsubishi Aircraft majority owner month for the same order and option structure—helping defense primes and weeks of production inventory. product,” says Stephane Albernhe, Ar- craft intends to use them mainly for and SpaceJet airframe contractor quantities and specifi cally covering suppliers to convince state and local of- Unions have expressed reluctance chery Strategy Consulting president. ground tests. “With the completion Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) the M100 version. Another U.S. cus- fi cials to allow them to stay open while about resuming work. When Airbus If the facility is shut down, impurities of FTV10’s first flight, Mitsubishi said the schedule was under review. tomer, SkyWest Airlines, ordered 100 most other businesses shutter—a heat- announced it was partially resuming may form in the ducts and cause “non- Aircraft Corp. is prepared to enter Also, FTV10 was clearly running late SpaceJets (MRJs at the time) in 2012 map by consultancy Govini of risks to production at its French factories, quality” problems, says Albernhe. Ev- the fi nal phase of certifi cation fl ight by then; it had been expected to join and took options on 100 more. major defense contracting communities unions reacted negatively or, at best, ery setting would have to be redefi ned. testing for the SpaceJet M90,” the the fl ight-testing e ort in late 2018. De- Mitsubishi Aircraft is reshuffling shows reason for concern (see map). cautiously. Some, like the CFE-CGC ex- Companies operating such factories company says. lays in receiving parts were to blame, executive positions. In April, Presi- For instance, the key centers of ma- ecutive employees union, did not oppose may have to choose the lesser of two FTV10 was in the air for 1 hr. 47 according to the Nikkei newspaper. dent Hisakazu Mizutani will become jor defense contractors, such as Lock- the resumption, as long as the required evils. Continuing production may cause min. after taking o at 2:53 p.m. local Mitsubishi Aircraft finally nar- chairman, replaced in his current role heed Martin Aeronautics, are in the health protection measures were taken. rocketing inventory costs. Stopping it time from Nagoya Airport, the loca- rowed down the outlook on Feb. 6, say- by Takaoki Niwa, president of MHI Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, as is the Others, such as the CGT union, do not may create even greater problems. c tion of the program’s fi nal assembly ing the aircraft would not be certifi ed America. c

22 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 2 COMMERCIAL AVIATION C DI S C Domestic Networks Provide Safety Domestic International ANA A Net for Asia-Pacific Carriers > SIA, CATHAY ARE MORE VULNERABLE TO INTERNATIONAL DECLINE DOMESTIC TRAFFIC IS EXPECTED TO BOUNCE BACK FASTER > Adrian Schofield

he COVID-19 crisis shows that international traffic look more exposed. A A while it is good to have a glob- While international travel was the *Measured in available seat kilometers. ally diverse network, a strong first to be hit, the coronavirus crisis T Sources: CAPA – Centre for Aviation and OAG domestic operation is a major advan- has caught up with many domestic Sources: CAPA – Centre for Aviation and OAG tage for carriers when a shock disrupts networks as governments increasing- international markets were progres- international traffic flows. ly lock down internal movement. But sively closed off due to tightening travel Industry logic holds that a broad domestic networks can be expected to restrictions. spread of international routes lessens return sooner, and demand likely will SIA has been forced to ground 138 an airline’s reliance on any single mar- recover more quickly. of its 147 aircraft and suspend 96% of ket, including its home patch. So if a The Asia-Pacific region provides its capacity through at least the end of downturn occurs in one country or case studies of the benefits and limita- April. SIA notes that “without a domes- region, carriers can divert resources tions of different approaches. Singa- tic [operation] the group’s airlines be- to unaffected areas. Many successful pore Airlines (SIA) and Cathay Pacific come more vulnerable” when countries airlines have built their models around are examples of airlines that rely exclu- restrict or ban international travel. this concept. sively on international networks, and Cathay Pacific likewise plans to cut And that approach makes sense— lean heavily on connecting internation- its passenger capacity by 96% in April until something such as a pandemic al markets via their hubs. and May. The airline will operate just a appears out of nowhere to trigger At first both carriers were hurt “bare skeleton” schedule, and even this global border closures. Then domes- due to their relatively high number of could be under threat if more travel re- tic networks become a godsend, and routes to mainland China, which was strictions are imposed. carriers that depend on connecting the first market affected. Then other Japan Airlines (JAL), All Nippon

travel easier, helping to improve national output a bit. Obeying Orders, Chinese The Civil Aviation Administration of China has said sev- Airlines Lift Capacity eral times that the government will help airlines recover from the effects of the pandemic, especially those that make an extra effort to assist the country. There are no specifics > CAPACITY HAS BEEN FLAT AND MODERATE on future support, but airline managers are hopeful. INDUSTRY MANAGERS HOPE FOR FUTURE The government expects little from international opera- > tions. Although airlines are presumed to keep open minimal GOVERNMENT SUPPORT connections to foreign countries, they are forbidden from increasing capacity because China fears reimportation of Bradley Perrett Beijing the coronavirus that began in Wuhan. hinese domestic airline activity is not as good as it Domestic capacity for the week of March 30, measured looks. The airlines are doing national service: facil- by seats offered, should be 60% of 2019 levels, according to Citating economic recovery and creating the impres- OAG and Aviation Week Network’s CAPA – Centre for Avia- sion of a return to normality to suit government policy—not tion. Since growth for 2020 was expected before the corona- their profitability. virus hit, the airlines are flying roughly 55% of the capacity Domestic capacity is more or less holding up at a mod- they would have offered in the absence of the pandemic. erate level reestablished early in March, when the country Expected domestic capacity for the week of March 30 was well on its way to bringing the COVID-19 pandemic was down about 8% from a week earlier—contrasting enor- under at least temporary control. But the carriers have not mously with the 35% surge that the airlines had planned. followed through on plans to surge the offered number of The reasoning behind the decision not to surge capacity seats by more than a third in the week of March 30. Also, is clearer than the impetus to do so in the first place. The av- aircraft are only about two-thirds full and fares remain low. erage flight was only 66% full on March 25 and 26, according Loads are edging higher, however. to a compilation of industry-wide load factors obtained by The industry is evidently flying unnecessary capacity be- Aviation Week. This data includes international operations cause the government has been trying, for about six weeks, but is dominated by domestic. The load factor was about 57% to get the country back to normal. And Beijing expects all for the first nine days of the month and 83% for March 2019. industries to cooperate. Reasonably high flight frequencies Comprehensive data for yields is unavailable, but casual send a signal to the country that commercial aviation is checks with travel agencies reveal that fares are deeply dis- operating more or less normally. They also make business counted; for example, normally, the price for a one-way flight

24 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMERCIAL AVIATION C DI S C

Domestic International Domestic Networks Provide Safety Airways (ANA) and Korean Air are is the world’s busiest domestic market. As recently as March 13, Virgin Aus- ANA A other examples of airlines for which In terms of seats rather than ASK, do- tralia said it was “insulated” to some Net for Asia-Pacific Carriers international connecting traffic is a key mestic capacity has increased from extent from the international market part of their strategies. However, un- 25.5% to 60.6% of the total for Korean. decline, since it is a “predominantly do- > SIA, CATHAY ARE MORE VULNERABLE TO INTERNATIONAL DECLINE like Cathay and SIA, these carriers also Garuda Indonesia typically has more mestic airline” with 78% of its revenue have domestic networks. And their do- domestic seats than international—by from that part of the business. Since DOMESTIC TRAFFIC IS EXPECTED TO BOUNCE BACK FASTER mestic operations have taken on great- a factor of three in 2019. The airline has then, however, it has been forced to > er importance since the COVID-19 out- noted that its extensive domestic net- suspend 90% of its domestic capacity. Adrian Schofield break began, as they have shrunk far work, spread over many islands, gives Carriers in Vietnam also have had less than international services. it an advantage over other carriers to shut down most of their domestic he COVID-19 crisis shows that international traffic look more exposed. A A This dynamic has caused the share more reliant on hubs. routes due to government restric- while it is good to have a glob- While international travel was the *Measured in available seat kilometers. of domestic operations to increase for Airlines based in Australia also had tions. Vietnam Airlines has canceled ally diverse network, a strong first to be hit, the coronavirus crisis all three of the airlines. In fact, the two a distinct advantage when COVID-19 all of its domestic flights except for T Sources: CAPA – Centre for Aviation and OAG domestic operation is a major advan- has caught up with many domestic Sources: CAPA – Centre for Aviation and OAG Japanese carriers now have more do- struck due to their broad domestic one flight per day on its three core tage for carriers when a shock disrupts networks as governments increasing- international markets were progres- mestic capacity—as measured in avail- networks, which remained in opera- trunk routes. Vietnam’s Hanoi-Ho Chi international traffic flows. ly lock down internal movement. But sively closed off due to tightening travel able seat kilometers (ASK)—than in- tion after international services were Minh City route is usually one of the Industry logic holds that a broad domestic networks can be expected to restrictions. ternational, reversing the trend from a shut down. However, their domestic busiest domestic routes in the region, spread of international routes lessens return sooner, and demand likely will SIA has been forced to ground 138 year ago, according to data from CAPA services have now also been dramat- and likely will be again when the pan- an airline’s reliance on any single mar- recover more quickly. of its 147 aircraft and suspend 96% of - Centre for Aviation and OAG. For the ically cut back as restrictions on local demic eases. ket, including its home patch. So if a The Asia-Pacific region provides its capacity through at least the end of week of March 30, 63.7% of ANA’s to- travel tighten. Air New Zealand has reduced its downturn occurs in one country or case studies of the benefits and limita- April. SIA notes that “without a domes- tal capacity was domestic, compared Qantas will cease all internation- international capacity by 95% and on region, carriers can divert resources tions of different approaches. Singa- tic [operation] the group’s airlines be- to 38.6% for the week of April 1, 2019. al service from the end of March April 2 raised domestic cuts to the to unaffected areas. Many successful pore Airlines (SIA) and Cathay Pacific come more vulnerable” when countries For JAL, domestic comprises 55% now through at least the end of May, and same level. Domestic demand and airlines have built their models around are examples of airlines that rely exclu- restrict or ban international travel. compared to 34.4% a year ago. will reduce domestic capacity by 60%. services will likely increase when the this concept. sively on international networks, and Cathay Pacific likewise plans to cut Korean Air’s domestic ASK share for Qantas CEO Alan Joyce predicts the country’s internal travel lockdown is And that approach makes sense— lean heavily on connecting internation- its passenger capacity by 96% in April the week of March 30 has risen to 8.1% domestic market will recover far fast- lifted. But CEO Greg Foran notes the until something such as a pandemic al markets via their hubs. and May. The airline will operate just a of its total, compared to 3.1% a year er than the international side. Domes- carrier is heavily reliant on internation- appears out of nowhere to trigger At first both carriers were hurt “bare skeleton” schedule, and even this earlier. South Korea does not have as tic restrictions are likely to be lifted al tourism, and because this traffic will global border closures. Then domes- due to their relatively high number of could be under threat if more travel re- extensive a domestic network as Japan, earlier, and consumer confidence may not bounce back for some time; there tic networks become a godsend, and routes to mainland China, which was strictions are imposed. and routes are mostly shorter. But it also be more easily restored on flights will be “a flow-on effect on our domes- carriers that depend on connecting the first market affected. Then other Japan Airlines (JAL), All Nippon does have the Seoul-Jeju route, which within the country. tic network.” c

Obeying Orders, Chinese travel easier, helping to improve national output a bit. doubt many potential tourists, fearful for their jobs, prefer The Civil Aviation Administration of China has said sev- Chinese Airline Operations to save their money. Airlines Lift Capacity eral times that the government will help airlines recover Feb. 17-April 5, 2020 vs. 2019 After the government in mid-February called for the from the effects of the pandemic, especially those that make 15 75% country to get back to work, tens or hundreds of millions an extra effort to assist the country. There are no specifics Load Factor (percent) of people began returning to offices and factories in big cit- > CAPACITY HAS BEEN FLAT AND MODERATE on future support, but airline managers are hopeful. ies from their hometowns where they had been spending INDUSTRY MANAGERS HOPE FOR FUTURE The government expects little from international opera- the Lunar New Year when the coronavirus emergency was > tions. Although airlines are presumed to keep open minimal recognized in late January. Some demand for flights still GOVERNMENT SUPPORT 10 50 connections to foreign countries, they are forbidden from appears to be coming from people returning to work, in- increasing capacity because China fears reimportation of dustry managers say. But after so many weeks, that effect Bradley Perrett Beijing the coronavirus that began in Wuhan. is surely dwindling. hinese domestic airline activity is not as good as it Domestic capacity for the week of March 30, measured Seats (millions) Weekly That leaves business travel as the likely main support looks. The airlines are doing national service: facil- by seats offered, should be 60% of 2019 levels, according to 5 25 for domestic demand in the industry, although even in Citating economic recovery and creating the impres- OAG and Aviation Week Network’s CAPA – Centre for Avia- this activity it is easy to see restraints. Anecdotes suggest sion of a return to normality to suit government policy—not tion. Since growth for 2020 was expected before the corona- that many companies are keeping belts tight and have em- their profitability. virus hit, the airlines are flying roughly 55% of the capacity braced video conferencing. State enterprises have less to Domestic capacity is more or less holding up at a mod- they would have offered in the absence of the pandemic. 0 0 fear from financial losses than private businesses do, but erate level reestablished early in March, when the country Expected domestic capacity for the week of March 30 20 25 29 5 10 15 20 25 31 5 they must pay particular attention to government demands was well on its way to bringing the COVID-19 pandemic was down about 8% from a week earlier—contrasting enor- February March April to minimize travel to help prevent a recurrence of conta- under at least temporary control. But the carriers have not mously with the 35% surge that the airlines had planned. Note: load factor data available for March 1-26 only. gion. (This policy is at odds with expecting airlines to offer followed through on plans to surge the offered number of The reasoning behind the decision not to surge capacity so many seats.) seats by more than a third in the week of March 30. Also, is clearer than the impetus to do so in the first place. The av- Sources: CAPA – Centre for Aviation and OAG; and internal industry statistics The industry load factor began picking up on March 10, aircraft are only about two-thirds full and fares remain low. erage flight was only 66% full on March 25 and 26, according between Beijing and Shanghai is about CNY1,200 ($170), but when it jumped to 60%. Then it tended higher, reaching Loads are edging higher, however. to a compilation of industry-wide load factors obtained by the airlines are now typically asking for around CNY400. 63% by March 24, followed by two days at 66%. More recent The industry is evidently flying unnecessary capacity be- Aviation Week. This data includes international operations Anecdotally, almost no leisure travel is happening in China information is unavailable, but the upward trend is clear. cause the government has been trying, for about six weeks, but is dominated by domestic. The load factor was about 57% right now. One obvious reason is that it would not be much Domestic capacity has been less stable, but the trend to get the country back to normal. And Beijing expects all for the first nine days of the month and 83% for March 2019. fun. Amusements such as night clubs and karaoke bars are can be characterized as flat: The weekly number of seats industries to cooperate. Reasonably high flight frequencies Comprehensive data for yields is unavailable, but casual still generally closed—the rules vary from city to city—and offered wandered from 8.5 million in the first week of March send a signal to the country that commercial aviation is checks with travel agencies reveal that fares are deeply dis- though some scenic attractions reopened a few weeks ago, to a peak of 8.8 million three weeks later, then dropped to operating more or less normally. They also make business counted; for example, normally, the price for a one-way flight last week the operators were told to close indoor facilities. No 8.1 million planned for the week of March 30. c

24 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 25 POINT/COUNTERPOINT

China’s Appetite for Aircraft May Disappoint By Richard Aboulafia etliner market recoveries for the past few de- travel demand drop. While 2018 saw a record of 355 cades have greatly benefited from the rise of jetliners delivered to Chinese customers, this was cut JChina, whose market was the only one that almost in half in 2019, to 180 jets. Some of this de- combined fast demand growth with sheer size. Over crease was due to the cessation of Boeing 737 MAX the past two decades, the country grew in impor- deliveries. But Airbus did not exactly pick up the tance to our industry, taking 2% of total Airbus and slack: Deliveries from Airbus fell 12% in 2019, despite Boeing output in 2001 and rising to a peak of 23% in a capacity expansion at the European company’s 2018. The graph below indicates this dramatic in- Tianjin A320 final assembly line. crease in China’s importance to the market. Even before the coronavirus-related traffic col- Our industry is clearly headed into a bust cycle, we lapse, scheduled deliveries in 2020 were slightly low- hope to be followed by a recovery. But this time, the er than 2019’s already low level. In relative and abso- industry might find that post-coronavirus Chinese lute terms, the China market has been halved, and demand is not what it was before and that the recov- given the coronavirus situation, it is quite likely that ery side of a V-shaped market downturn is a bit less demand will fall further before it resumes growth, steep. There are two reasons to be concerned. hopefully in the next few years. But it might not get back to the 2018 peak until 2023 or later. The situation is not completely bleak. L D C China can provide state aid for airlines 350 25% and lessors more readily than most other countries, although that is just a sta- 300 T 20% bilization measure. It is not the same as 250 returning the country and its air travel 200 15% industry to the remarkable growth track it was on as it transformed from a poor 150 10% country to a middle-income one. In terms 100 of its economy and its air travel market, 5% China might be plateauing out. 50 This crisis has worsened China’s rela- 0 0% tions with the U.S. and the West, which 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 were already deteriorating. Looking beyond the post-coronavirus recovery, Source: Teal Group as economic nationalism increases and Western supply chains move away from First, China’s economic problems and its air traf- China—and as state aid plays a bigger role in many fic slowdown started months before COVID-19 was economies due to the coronavirus economic down- identified. Nominally, GDP growth last year was 6.1%, turn—China might pursue an increasingly autarkic but there were plenty of indicators of a less robust future. reality. For example, car sales actually fell more than Building jetliners is already a priority in the coun- 8%. And according to the International Air Trans- try’s 2035 plan, and while the results so far have been port Association, China air travel demand fell from poor, that problem could be solved with trade barri- 12.2% year-over-year growth in late 2018 to just 5.3% ers: Chinese airlines would be forced, against their by October and November 2019. will, to buy local jets. Typically, air travel demand for a fast-growth mar- This bigger concern about China’s aviation future ket like China is roughly twice GDP; that late-2018 is more of a post-2030 problem. But for the com- 12.2% figure is clearly supportive of 6.1% GDP growth, ing few years, the important conclusion is that Chi- capping many years of double-digit growth. The sin- na likely will not play the same big role in a steep gle-digit growth in the second half of 2019 would be V-shaped recovery. The country probably will stay at typical for an emerging economy growing at 2.5-3%. a somewhat muted level of growth in its economy, air China’s recent economic figures reflect a much travel demand and the jetliner market even after the worse reality. Its economy contracted in January COVID-19 crisis passes. There might be a robust Chi- and February for the first time in over half a century. na traffic recovery, but we are unlikely to see the kind Industrial production fell 13.5% from a year earlier. of strong, sustainable growth numbers that benefited China domestic air travel in January fell by 6.8%, the aviation industry for the last two decades. c which was just the start of the COVID-19 impact. Second, China’s jetliner market downturn started Richard Aboulafia is vice president of analysis at Teal Group. a year before COVID-19, in line with the country’s air He is based in Washington.

26 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST POINT/COUNTERPOINT POINT/COUNTERPOINT

China’s Appetite for Aircraft No, Nationalism and Protectionism May Disappoint Will Favor China By Richard Aboulafia By Peter Harbison etliner market recoveries for the past few de- travel demand drop. While 2018 saw a record of 355 ince the first aircraft took flight, aviation has the different markets’ return to health and economic cades have greatly benefited from the rise of jetliners delivered to Chinese customers, this was cut moved in lockstep with politics and national secu- security. Combined with a likely pushback on mar- JChina, whose market was the only one that almost in half in 2019, to 180 jets. Some of this de- Srity and has been a major global socio-economic ket liberalism, the resulting constraint on airline net- combined fast demand growth with sheer size. Over crease was due to the cessation of Boeing 737 MAX force for good. It is no coincidence that the economic and work-planning freedom will create a further impedi- the past two decades, the country grew in impor- deliveries. But Airbus did not exactly pick up the political rise of China and Asia in this century has creat- ment to restoring the global system. The priority will tance to our industry, taking 2% of total Airbus and slack: Deliveries from Airbus fell 12% in 2019, despite ed a major power shift in aviation geopolitics, too. Later be on direct links between major countries. Boeing output in 2001 and rising to a peak of 23% in a capacity expansion at the European company’s in this decade, China is projected to overtake the U.S. Network airlines rely on access to a wide range of 2018. The graph below indicates this dramatic in- Tianjin A320 final assembly line. as the world’s largest aviation power. The coronavirus markets around the world, and achieving critical mass crease in China’s importance to the market. Even before the coronavirus-related traffic col- crisis will either accelerate or slow this transition. The depends on multiple feed routes. These factors will Our industry is clearly headed into a bust cycle, we lapse, scheduled deliveries in 2020 were slightly low- smart money would have to be on China’s preeminence. make life difficult for sixth-freedom operators with hope to be followed by a recovery. But this time, the er than 2019’s already low level. In relative and abso- Government leaders are increasingly describing the small or no domestic domain, particularly if liberal industry might find that post-coronavirus Chinese lute terms, the China market has been halved, and coronavirus onslaught as a world war. In fact, it is both market access is in retreat. demand is not what it was before and that the recov- given the coronavirus situation, it is quite likely that much bigger than World War II and very different from China, however, has the great advantage of a mas- ery side of a V-shaped market downturn is a bit less demand will fall further before it resumes growth, it. This time, there are 185 countries fighting it, with sive and still growing government-supported domes- steep. There are two reasons to be concerned. hopefully in the next few years. But it might not get more still to join, and every country is a battlefront. tic market, ensuring both a substantial airline indus- back to the 2018 peak until 2023 or later. Moreover, a collection of allies worked The situation is not completely bleak. more or less in concert in World War II to L D C China can provide state aid for airlines defeat the common foe, a fight led in its later C R P G 350 25% and lessors more readily than most oth- stages by the U.S. Today, there are few signs (2008-20)* er countries, although that is just a sta- of a similar level of cooperation; faced with 300 1,500 30% 20% bilization measure. It is not the same as this invisible invasion, most countries have fo-

T Revenue Passenger 250 returning the country and its air travel cused almost entirely inward, with no sign of Kilometer Growth 20% 200 15% industry to the remarkable growth track leadership from the world’s largest economy. 1,000 it was on as it transformed from a poor The coronavirus has arrived at a time 10% 150 10% country to a middle-income one. In terms when nationalism, with its adverse effects of its economy and its air travel market, on globalization, has been rising. Rather 500 100 0%

China might be plateauing out. than vanquishing nationalism, as happened Revenue Passenger 5% Kilometers (billions) 50 This crisis has worsened China’s rela- in 1945, winning this war appears likely to 0 -10% 0 0% tions with the U.S. and the West, which entrench it. That is bad news for the airlines. 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2000 were already deteriorating. Looking Hopefully, the virus war will not last as Jan. to Jan. * Through January 2020 beyond the post-coronavirus recovery, long as World War II did. But even if it is Note: All services, domestic and international Source: Teal Group as economic nationalism increases and over in a matter of months, the world into Sources: CAPA – Centre for Aviation and CAAC Western supply chains move away from which we emerge will be very different from First, China’s economic problems and its air traf- China—and as state aid plays a bigger role in many the one we left a few weeks ago. Many airlines will have try and a wide range of international point-to-point fic slowdown started months before COVID-19 was economies due to the coronavirus economic down- died, and most survivors will have their government connections. Its geographical positioning sets it up identified. Nominally, GDP growth last year was 6.1%, turn—China might pursue an increasingly autarkic bailouts to thank, with overhanging obligations. as a massive transfer hub—with many large transit but there were plenty of indicators of a less robust future. In 2021, we will be confronting a deep economic points—straddling the major markets of Asia-Pacific reality. For example, car sales actually fell more than Building jetliners is already a priority in the coun- recession that the International Monetary Fund ex- and Europe, and even much of North America. 8%. And according to the International Air Trans- try’s 2035 plan, and while the results so far have been pects will be “worse” than the one following the global In a less liberal aviation marketplace, China is conse- port Association, China air travel demand fell from poor, that problem could be solved with trade barri- financial crisis of 2008-09. Back then, it took the U.S. quently likely to be the big winner. Herein lies a paradox 12.2% year-over-year growth in late 2018 to just 5.3% ers: Chinese airlines would be forced, against their airline market until 2014 to recover to pre-recession for U.S. policymaking. The current administration’s na- by October and November 2019. will, to buy local jets. levels. China’s system, by contrast, bounced back with tionalistic attitude, strongly prompted by airline unions, Typically, air travel demand for a fast-growth mar- This bigger concern about China’s aviation future annual double-digit growth in revenue passenger kilo- is likely to confine its airlines even further within an ket like China is roughly twice GDP; that late-2018 is more of a post-2030 problem. But for the com- meters every year for the decade starting in 2009, only international network reliant on a low-growth—albeit 12.2% figure is clearly supportive of 6.1% GDP growth, ing few years, the important conclusion is that Chi- slipping below, to 9.3%, in 2019. But these data scarcely historically valuable—North Atlantic market as well as capping many years of double-digit growth. The sin- na likely will not play the same big role in a steep offer a basis for extrapolating this time. Latin America, both of which appear fragile now. gle-digit growth in the second half of 2019 would be V-shaped recovery. The country probably will stay at In the new world we are entering, populated mostly Alternatively, there is a great opportunity, emu- typical for an emerging economy growing at 2.5-3%. a somewhat muted level of growth in its economy, air by government-supported airlines, the dynamics of avi- lating the optimism of the post-World War II govern- China’s recent economic figures reflect a much travel demand and the jetliner market even after the ation will have very different drivers from the previous ments, to reformulate the aviation regulatory system. worse reality. Its economy contracted in January COVID-19 crisis passes. There might be a robust Chi- supply-demand formula. The system is likely to resem- That would at least mean removing foreign ownership and February for the first time in over half a century. na traffic recovery, but we are unlikely to see the kind ble the restrictive profile of the 1970s, now overlaid by controls on airlines to allow rationalization and consol- Industrial production fell 13.5% from a year earlier. of strong, sustainable growth numbers that benefited a vigorous trade war between the U.S. and China. idation in a liberal framework. But that would require China domestic air travel in January fell by 6.8%, the aviation industry for the last two decades. c Aviation and the much larger tourism industry will vision and cooperation. c which was just the start of the COVID-19 impact. emerge greatly weakened and reduced in size. The in- Second, China’s jetliner market downturn started Richard Aboulafia is vice president of analysis at Teal Group. ternational market will lag domestic recovery mark- Peter Harbison is chairman emeritus of CAPA – Centre for Aviation, a year before COVID-19, in line with the country’s air He is based in Washington. edly because there will be limited synchrony between which is part of the Aviation Week Network.

26 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 27 SPACE ARIANESPACE PHOTOS OneWeb Falls

> COMPANY GOES BANKRUPT AFTER PRIME BACKER EXITS > 74 SATELLITES ARE ALREADY IN ORBIT One of OneWeb’s first six satellites during integration Irene Klotz Cape Canaveral onto its payload dispenser. ight weeks ago, OneWeb was riding high, confident “We continue to work with both shareholders—Airbus after the successful kickoff of a 20-flight sprint to build and OneWeb—while OneWeb negotiates its financing,” added Eout its broadband internet satellite network in low OneWeb Satellites CEO Tony Gingiss. “We are deeply sad- Earth orbit. dened to see our friends at OneWeb being so significantly But by the time the next batch of satellites reached orbit impacted, and we stand behind them and their families as on March 21, the company’s financial situation had turned they go through this difficult period.” grim. Its primary backer, Tokyo-based SoftBank—already OneWeb is hoping its days in bankruptcy proceedings will stinging from a troubled investment be short. “Our current situation is a portfolio—saw its market value col- consequence of the economic impact lapse as the COVID-19 coronavirus of the COVID-19 crisis,” Steckel said. crisis engulfed the planet. “We remain convinced of the social The SoftBank conglomerate, and economic value of our mission to which reported ¥9.1 trillion ($84 bil- connect everyone everywhere.” lion) in revenue in 2018, announced OneWeb said it had been in ad- an emergency asset sale to raise vanced negotiations since January funds, buy back shares and reduce for investment to fully fund the com- debt. For OneWeb, the situation pany through the deployment of its proved fatal. initial 648-member constellation. SoftBank, which had spent about “While the company was close to $2 billion on OneWeb, balked at pro- obtaining financing, the process did viding additional financing—though not progress because of the finan- as majority shareholder, the Japa- cial impact and market turbulence nese conglomerate retains the power related to the spread of COVID-19,” to set terms under which potential OneWeb said. new investment could come in. Since In addition to 74 satellites in orbit, its founding in 2012, OneWeb has OneWeb has global spectrum rights raised about $3 billion in four rounds and has completed or is in the proof financing. cess of developing half of 44 planned So on March 27, with its 34 newly ground stations. The company also is launched satellites still climbing into working on a range of user terminals operational orbits, OneWeb filed for for different types of customers and relief under Chapter 11 of the Bank- has demonstrated data transmission ruptcy Code in the U.S. Bankruptcy Thirteen months after a Soyuz rocket speeds greater than 400 Mbps and a Court for the Southern District of delivered its first six satellites into orbit, latency of 32 millisec. New York. OneWeb has filed for bankruptcy. “We are confident that our recent “Today is a difficult day for us at successes have created a strong OneWeb,” OneWeb CEO Adrian Steckel said in a statement foundation for future owners,” the company said. “It is im- after the filing. “It is with a very heavy heart that we have portant to know we are looking at several paths under the been forced to reduce our workforce and enter the Chapter Chapter 11 process, and it is too early to know the exact out- 11 process.” come of the restructuring process.” Before filing, the company cut 90% of its 530-member OneWeb continues to operate and test its 74-member net- workforce, located in London; McLean, Virginia; and Moun- work. “We are committed to being responsible space stew- tain View, California. ards,” OneWeb noted. OneWeb also is part owner of OneWeb Satellites, a man- OneWeb’s top creditor is Arianespace, which was owed ufacturing arm it operates with Airbus adjacent to the $238 million as of the March 27 filing. OneWeb in 2015 signed Kennedy Space Center in Florida. OneWeb Satellites is not a $1.1 billion contract with Arianespace for 21 Soyuz launches. part of the bankruptcy proceedings, but on March 30 it, too, So far, three of the launches have taken place, all successfully. furloughed an undisclosed number of employees. The next flight had been targeted for May. “OneWeb Satellites is primarily implementing temporary Other unsecured creditors include Qualcomm Technol- furloughs to have the flexibility to respond to the changing ogies, which is owed $8 million; Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu, environment and is still operating with no plans of filing for $6.9 million; Hughes Network Systems, $5.4 million; and bankruptcy,” the company said in a statement. Deutsche Bank, $5.2 million. c

28 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST SPACE ARIANESPACE PHOTOS OneWeb Falls September 1-3, 2020 > COMPANY GOES BANKRUPT AFTER PRIME BACKER EXITS Dallas, TX > 74 SATELLITES ARE ALREADY IN ORBIT One of OneWeb’s first six satellites during integration Irene Klotz Cape Canaveral #MROAM | onto its payload dispenser. ight weeks ago, OneWeb was riding high, confident “We continue to work with both shareholders—Airbus after the successful kickoff of a 20-flight sprint to build and OneWeb—while OneWeb negotiates its financing,” added Eout its broadband internet satellite network in low OneWeb Satellites CEO Tony Gingiss. “We are deeply sad- Earth orbit. dened to see our friends at OneWeb being so significantly But by the time the next batch of satellites reached orbit impacted, and we stand behind them and their families as on March 21, the company’s financial situation had turned they go through this difficult period.” grim. Its primary backer, Tokyo-based SoftBank—already OneWeb is hoping its days in bankruptcy proceedings will stinging from a troubled investment be short. “Our current situation is a portfolio—saw its market value col- consequence of the economic impact lapse as the COVID-19 coronavirus of the COVID-19 crisis,” Steckel said. crisis engulfed the planet. “We remain convinced of the social MRO Americas to Address The SoftBank conglomerate, and economic value of our mission to which reported ¥9.1 trillion ($84 bil- connect everyone everywhere.” lion) in revenue in 2018, announced OneWeb said it had been in ad- an emergency asset sale to raise vanced negotiations since January Moving Forward funds, buy back shares and reduce for investment to fully fund the com- debt. For OneWeb, the situation pany through the deployment of its proved fatal. initial 648-member constellation. SoftBank, which had spent about “While the company was close to • Industry in Crisis: How to build resiliency in your business in $2 billion on OneWeb, balked at pro- obtaining financing, the process did viding additional financing—though not progress because of the finan- the midst of a global pandemic. as majority shareholder, the Japa- cial impact and market turbulence nese conglomerate retains the power related to the spread of COVID-19,” • Navigating the World of Mergers & Acquisitions and to set terms under which potential OneWeb said. new investment could come in. Since In addition to 74 satellites in orbit, Industry Consolidation its founding in 2012, OneWeb has OneWeb has global spectrum rights raised about $3 billion in four rounds and has completed or is in the pro- • All Hands on Deck: What can the industry realistically expect in the of financing. cess of developing half of 44 planned So on March 27, with its 34 newly ground stations. The company also is coming days and what role will MROs, OEMs, fuel companies, and launched satellites still climbing into working on a range of user terminals operational orbits, OneWeb filed for for different types of customers and fi nancial institutions play in helping to keep US airlines in business? relief under Chapter 11 of the Bank- has demonstrated data transmission ruptcy Code in the U.S. Bankruptcy Thirteen months after a Soyuz rocket speeds greater than 400 Mbps and a Court for the Southern District of delivered its first six satellites into orbit, latency of 32 millisec. New York. OneWeb has filed for bankruptcy. “We are confident that our recent “Today is a difficult day for us at successes have created a strong OneWeb,” OneWeb CEO Adrian Steckel said in a statement foundation for future owners,” the company said. “It is im- after the filing. “It is with a very heavy heart that we have portant to know we are looking at several paths under the been forced to reduce our workforce and enter the Chapter Chapter 11 process, and it is too early to know the exact out- 11 process.” come of the restructuring process.” Before filing, the company cut 90% of its 530-member OneWeb continues to operate and test its 74-member net- workforce, located in London; McLean, Virginia; and Moun- work. “We are committed to being responsible space stew- tain View, California. ards,” OneWeb noted. OneWeb also is part owner of OneWeb Satellites, a man- OneWeb’s top creditor is Arianespace, which was owed ufacturing arm it operates with Airbus adjacent to the $238 million as of the March 27 filing. OneWeb in 2015 signed Kennedy Space Center in Florida. OneWeb Satellites is not a $1.1 billion contract with Arianespace for 21 Soyuz launches. part of the bankruptcy proceedings, but on March 30 it, too, So far, three of the launches have taken place, all successfully. furloughed an undisclosed number of employees. The next flight had been targeted for May. Learn more and register at: “OneWeb Satellites is primarily implementing temporary Other unsecured creditors include Qualcomm Technol- furloughs to have the flexibility to respond to the changing ogies, which is owed $8 million; Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu, mroamericas.aviationweek.com environment and is still operating with no plans of filing for $6.9 million; Hughes Network Systems, $5.4 million; and bankruptcy,” the company said in a statement. Deutsche Bank, $5.2 million. c

28 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST SPACE NASA

NASA Picks Tops Priorities As Centers Shut Down

> SLS STATIC TEST FIRE ON HOLD > WORK CONTINUES ON MARS 2020 ROVER

Irene Klotz Cape Canaveral

ith 10 NASA centers shuttered, the U.S. space agency is reassessing every program in its port- Wfolio in light of employee safety amid the growing threat from the highly contagious COVID-19 coronavirus, which has infected nearly 1 million people worldwide and more than 216,000 in the U.S. as of April 2. Among the earliest programs to be mothballed was the seemingly unstoppable Space Launch System (SLS) program. Prime contractor Boeing overcame all kinds of adver- sity over the last nine years to develop and deliver the first SLS core stage to NASA for testing, but now the program is stopped dead in its tracks. NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine suspended work on the SLS and Orion deep-space capsule at the agency’s Michoud Assembly Facility, located outside New Orleans, and the Stennis Space Center in southern Mississippi, effective March 20. With the number of COVID-19 cases rising in both communities—and the first confirmed case of the disease at Michoud—Bridenstine closed the centers to all personnel The core stage for the first SLS booster underwent modal except those needed to protect life and critical infrastruc- testing at NASA’s Stennis Space Center in Mississippi on ture. Access to NASA’s Ames Research Center at Moffett Jan. 30. Data from the test will be used to verify structur- Field, California, was similarly restricted on March 17. A week later, the shutdown list had expanded to include al vibration modes and verify flight control parameters. Glenn Research Center in Cleveland, Goddard Space Flight The test is part of a Green Run series of integrated testing prior to the SLS debut flight.

The Glenn-operated Plum Brook Station in nearby San- dusky, Ohio, stayed open long enough to ship out the Orion spacecraft earmarked for a lunar flyby flight test in 2021. The capsule, built by Lockheed Martin, completed four months of thermal vacuum and electromagnetic environment testing at Plum Brook and arrived at the Kennedy Space Center in Florida on March 25. Kennedy, NASA headquarters in Washington and the rest of the agency’s field sites remained open for mission-critical personnel as of April 2. Those facilities include: the John- son Space Center in Houston; Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California; Langley Research Center in Hampton, Virginia; and White Sands Test Facility in New Mexico. The Orion capsule may have an extended stay in Florida. The SLS rocket expected to launch Orion on a flight test around the Moon was finally shipped from its Michoud manufacturing facility to Stennis for integrated testing in January, Processing on the Mars 2020 rover Perseverance remains following two years of delays to resolve technical problems. A full-duration static test firing of the core’s four RS-25 underway at the Kennedy Space Center’s Payload Hazard- engines, now on hold, was scheduled for this summer. The ous Servicing Facility. “Green Run” test campaign had been approaching avionics Center in Maryland and Wallops Flight Facility in Virginia, power-on, SLS prime contractor Boeing writes in an email as well as the Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New to Aviation Week. York. By April 1, the Armstrong Flight Research Center at Still to come before the SLS hot-fire test are a countdown Edwards, California, and Marshall Space Flight Center in demonstration and wet dress rehearsal.

CORY HUSTON/NASA CORY Huntsville, Alabama, were added to the shutdown list. Completion of the Green Run sets the stage for SLS’

30 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST SPACE NASA

NASA Picks Tops Priorities In addition to processing the first Orion spacecraft, Ken-

CORY HUSTON/NASA CORY nedy Space Center personnel are continuing to work on the As Centers Shut Down Commercial Crew and Commercial Resupply Services programs in support of the International Space Station. NASA > SLS STATIC TEST FIRE ON HOLD also is continuing to process the Mars 2020 rover at Kennedy for launch this summer. The opportunity to launch to Mars, > WORK CONTINUES ON MARS 2020 ROVER which occurs every 26 months, is from July 17-Aug. 5. “Mars 2020 is one of only two missions within SMD [Sci- Irene Klotz Cape Canaveral ence Mission Directorate] that is the highest priority,” Lori Glaze, director of NASA’s Planetary Science Division, said ith 10 NASA centers shuttered, the U.S. space at a March 19 town hall meeting. The forum was held virtu- agency is reassessing every program in its port- ally due to cancellation of the annual Lunar and Planetary Wfolio in light of employee safety amid the growing Science Conference in Houston. threat from the highly contagious COVID-19 coronavirus, “As of right now—and even if we go to a next stage of which has infected nearly 1 million people worldwide and Technicians test the small helicopter that will accompany alert—Mars 2020 is moving forward on schedule, and ev- more than 216,000 in the U.S. as of April 2. the Mars 2020 rover as part of a technology demonstration. erything so far is very well on track,” Glaze said. “We’re also Among the earliest programs to be mothballed was the making sure that our personnel are healthy and safe.” seemingly unstoppable Space Launch System (SLS) pro- long-awaited flight test, a mission now known as Artemis 1 NASA’s other high-priority science mission was the James gram. Prime contractor Boeing overcame all kinds of adver- that will send an uncrewed Orion capsule around the Moon. Webb Space Telescope (JWST), due to launch in 2021 from sity over the last nine years to develop and deliver the first Originally targeted for 2017, SLS’ debut was delayed to 2019 the European Space Agency’s spaceport in Kourou, French SLS core stage to NASA for testing, but now the program and, most recently, to November 2020. Guiana. is stopped dead in its tracks. However, even before Michoud and Stennis were shut- France on March 16 suspended launch campaigns from NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine suspended work tered due to COVID-19 concerns, NASA was not going to the Guiana Space Center due to the COVID-19 pandemic. on the SLS and Orion deep-space capsule at the agency’s make the 2020 launch date. The agency in April had planned On March 20, NASA suspended work on JWST, which is Michoud Assembly Facility, located outside New Orleans, to announce a new target launch date for Artemis 1 of mid- located at prime contractor Northrop Grumman’s facilities and the Stennis Space Center in southern Mississippi, ef- to-late 2021. in Redondo Beach, California. fective March 20. “We realize there will be impacts to NASA missions,” With the number of COVID-19 cases rising in both com- Bridenstine said in a statement announcing the Michoud munities—and the first confirmed case of the disease at and Stennis closures. “But as our teams work to analyze Michoud—Bridenstine closed the centers to all personnel The core stage for the first SLS booster underwent modal the full picture and reduce risks, we understand that our except those needed to protect life and critical infrastruc- testing at NASA’s Stennis Space Center in Mississippi on top priority is the health and safety of the NASA workforce.” ture. Access to NASA’s Ames Research Center at Moffett Jan. 30. Data from the test will be used to verify structur- Current plans call for Artemis 1 to be followed in 2022-23 Field, California, was similarly restricted on March 17. by Artemis 2, a crewed flight test around the Moon, and A week later, the shutdown list had expanded to include al vibration modes and verify flight control parameters. in 2024 by Artemis 3, which would land astronauts on the Glenn Research Center in Cleveland, Goddard Space Flight The test is part of a Green Run series of integrated test- south pole of the Moon. The expedited schedule to land on ing prior to the SLS debut flight. the Moon was set by President Donald Trump in March 2019. NASA and Boeing are negotiating a production contract The Glenn-operated Plum Brook Station in nearby San- covering 10 more SLS cores for missions beginning with the dusky, Ohio, stayed open long enough to ship out the Orion Artemis 3 Moon landing. spacecraft earmarked for a lunar flyby flight test in 2021. The core stage for Artemis 2, currently under construc- The capsule, built by Lockheed Martin, completed four tion at Michoud, is part of Boeing’s original development and months of thermal vacuum and electromagnetic environ- production contract—work that NASA’s Office of Inspector ment testing at Plum Brook and arrived at the Kennedy General estimates will have cost the agency more than $17 bil- Space Center in Florida on March 25. lion through the end of fiscal 2020, a March 10 audit shows. Kennedy, NASA headquarters in Washington and the rest NASA in October 2019 authorized Boeing to purchase of the agency’s field sites remained open for mission-critical long-lead materials and parts needed for Artemis 3, but the Work on the James Webb Space Telescope, already at risk personnel as of April 2. Those facilities include: the John- company does not yet have authorization to begin assembly. of not making its March 2021 launch date, was suspended son Space Center in Houston; Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Boeing is aiming to establish a supply chain and a produc- as part of shutdowns to stem the spread of COVID-19. Pasadena, California; Langley Research Center in Hampton, tion line using its existing tooling to produce a core stage The observatory is at Northrop Grumman’s facility in Virginia; and White Sands Test Facility in New Mexico. about every eight months. Redondo Beach, California. The Orion capsule may have an extended stay in Florida. The engine section, intertank, liquid oxygen tank, liquid The SLS rocket expected to launch Orion on a flight test hydrogen tank and forward skirt structures for Core Stage 2, Northrop, as well as other aerospace companies desig- NORTHROP GRUMMAN around the Moon was finally shipped from its Michoud man- which was due for completion in spring 2022, have been nated essential suppliers, are exempt from the state’s manufacturing facility to Stennis for integrated testing in January, welded and built, says Boeing spokesman Jerry Drelling. datory shelter-in-place orders intended to curb the spread Processing on the Mars 2020 rover Perseverance remains following two years of delays to resolve technical problems. Meanwhile, in September 2019 Lockheed Martin, the prime of the novel coronavirus and COVID-19. A full-duration static test firing of the core’s four RS-25 contractor for Orion, signed a $4.6 billion production and op- However, NASA said it could not ensure its employees underway at the Kennedy Space Center’s Payload Hazard- engines, now on hold, was scheduled for this summer. The erations contract with NASA covering manufacturing of six and contractors could safely and effectively work under ous Servicing Facility. “Green Run” test campaign had been approaching avionics more spacecraft at Michoud. That work is now suspended. current social distancing protocols, which prohibit many Center in Maryland and Wallops Flight Facility in Virginia, power-on, SLS prime contractor Boeing writes in an email The first Orion capsule was built under a $7 billion de- people gathering in a tight place. Based on that assessment, as well as the Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New to Aviation Week. velopment and production contract. Including funds spent NASA curtailed work on JWST on March 20. York. By April 1, the Armstrong Flight Research Center at Still to come before the SLS hot-fire test are a countdown on Orion during the predecessor 2006-11 Constellation pro- “For most of the missions, there is nobody working hands- Edwards, California, and Marshall Space Flight Center in demonstration and wet dress rehearsal. gram, NASA budget figures show the project will have cost on anymore at NASA facilities,” says NASA chief scientist c CORY HUSTON/NASA CORY Huntsville, Alabama, were added to the shutdown list. Completion of the Green Run sets the stage for SLS’ $18.5 billion by the end of fiscal 2020. Thomas Zurbuchen.

30 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 31 DEFENSE > U.S. Army intel fleet p. 34 FVL future p. 36 KF-X prototype p. 37 Tempest speeds up p. 38 FARA downselect p. 39 Final AEHF sat p. 40 US NAY P A C I F I C PIVOT

The Marines propose deactivating a CH-53 unit. > U.S. MARINE CORPS TO DOUBLE UAS SQUADRONS > MASSIVE ARTILLERY INCREASE PLANNED

Lee Hudson Washington he U.S. Marine Corps is proposing sweeping changes to its force design with a single-minded focus—the TPacifi c—that may have major implications for the aircraft it will purchase in the next decade. Eight months after Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David A Reduction in F-35 Squadron Size Berger issued planning guidance revealing force design as his 2019 Marine Corps Aviation Plan top priority, the service released details about the future force. 9 Squadrons of 16 F-35Bs “I have already initiated, and am personally leading, a future- force design e ort,” Berger writes. “We will divest of 5 Squadrons of 10 F-35Bs legacy defense programs and force structure that support 4 Squadrons of 10 F-35Cs legacy capabilities.” The central theme of his planning guidance is that the 2020 Proposal Marine Corps must be organized, trained and equipped for a Reducing the maximum high-end fi ght with China set at sea. This means a complete number of F-35B and C aircraft deemphasis of the types of counterterrorism missions the per squadron to 10 Corps has specialized in over the past two decades. Going forward, the service should not focus on forcible entry. Instead, the Marine Corps will pivot and focus on distributed operations, where small groups of Marines fi ght in- dependently and employ advanced technologies such as the Lockheed Martin F-35B, unmanned systems and long-range

precision fi res. Berger’s plan also calls for developing the abili- US MARN CORPS PHOTOS ty to “dominate inside the enemy’s weapon engagement zone.” To get within that engagement zone, China’s “bubble of air, missile and naval power,” the Marines will have to develop CH53K “low-signature, a ordable, and risk-worthy platforms,” writes Deactivating HMH-462 may have signifi cant consequences Mark Cancian, senior advisor with the Center for Strategic for the Sikorsky CH-53K King Stallion. “I think they’re go- and International Studies International Security Program. ing to cut about one-third of the [CH-53K] buy,” Cancian tells The modernized design is envisioned to optimize the Aviation Week. Cancian served in the Marine Corps more than Marine Corps for the National Defense Strategy and will 30 years and has worked on force structure and acquisition require signifi cant changes over the next 10 years. The ser- issues in the O¥ ce of the Secretary of Defense and at the vice proposes a 7% reduction in total force structure, roughly O¥ ce of Management and Budget. 12,000 personnel. “We suppose that implies 12 fewer CH-53Ks, though the Specifi cally, for aviation, the service recommends deacti- program has not yet hit production, and a total of 196 are vating Marine Medium Tiltrotor Sqdn. (VMM) 264, Marine planned,” says Byron Callan, managing director of Capital Heavy Helicopter Sqdn. (HMH) 462, Marine Light-Attack Alpha Partners. Helicopter Sqdns. (HMLA) 469 and 367, and Marine Wing If the commandant’s plan becomes reality, the CH-53K will Support Groups (MWSG) 27 and 37. most likely trigger a congressional warning of a cost overrun Those changes in force structure also include major revi- for a major acquisition program, known as a Nunn-McCurdy sions to the Marines’ previous plans to develop and procure breach. That occurs when the procurement unit cost increas- aviation and missile systems. es 15% or more over the current baseline estimate, or 30%

3 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE > U.S. Army intel fleet p. 34 FVL future p. 36 KF-X prototype p. 37 Tempest speeds up p. 38 FARA downselect p. 39 Final AEHF sat p. 40 US NAY PHOTO

US NAY or more over the original baseline estimate. “If the program weren’t as far along as it is, I think this would also be up for cancellation. But I think it’s probably just P A C I F I C far enough,” Cancian says. Deactivating Units The CH-53K is designed to: transport weapons, equipment, The Marine Corps is recommending supplies and personnel; support forward arming and refueling the deactivation of three aviation units: points and rapid ground refueling; provide assault support in PIVOT evacuation and maritime special operations; and o er casu- Tiltrotor Sqdn. 264 alty evacuation and recovery of downed aircraft and airborne

12 MV-22s US MARN CORPS PHOTOS control for assault support. Development began in 2006, with initial operational capa- Light Attack Sqdn. 469 bility (IOC) planned for 2015. The annual Marine Corps Avia- tion Plan delays IOC for seven years because the program has 15 AH-1Z / 12 UH-1Ys encountered many developmental hurdles. The three-engine Heavy Helicopter Sqdn. 462 The Marines propose design created several integration issues such as exhaust gas reingestion (EGR). EGR occurs 12 CH-53Es deactivating a CH-53 unit. > U.S. MARINE CORPS TO DOUBLE UAS SQUADRONS when the hot engine gases are ingested back into the system, which can cause increased life-cycle costs, MASSIVE ARTILLERY INCREASE PLANNED > engine overheating and stalls, according to Debbie Cleavenger, chief engineer for the heavy-lift helicop- Lee Hudson Washington ter program o ce. The heavy-lift helicopter is powered by three 7,500-shp Gen- he U.S. Marine Corps is proposing sweeping changes eral Electric T708 turboshafts. In late 2018, it was revealed to its force design with a single-minded focus—the that EGR into the No. 2 and No. 3 engines posed a signifi cant TPacifi c—that may have major implications for the air- challenge for the program and forced a restructuring. How- craft it will purchase in the next decade. ever, Sikorsky and Naval Air Systems Command modeled the Eight months after Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David A Reduction in F-35 Squadron Size EGR problem and redesigned fl ight components. Test results reconnaissance capabilities, unmanned systems and resilient Berger issued planning guidance revealing force design as his 2019 Marine Corps Aviation Plan show all the issues were successfully addressed. networks. “Future budget requests will include an expanded top priority, the service released details about the future force. 9 Squadrons of 16 F-35Bs list of viable unmanned capabilities that will create signifi cant “I have already initiated, and am personally leading, a F35 opportunity for industries across the country,” the service says. future- force design e ort,” Berger writes. “We will divest of 5 Squadrons of 10 F-35Bs The Marine Corps proposes reducing the maximum num- For instance, the Marine Corps anticipates a 300% increase legacy defense programs and force structure that support 4 Squadrons of 10 F-35Cs ber of Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighters in a giv- in rocket artillery capacity, doubling the number of unmanned legacy capabilities.” en squadron from what it had planned a year ago. The 2019 aircraft system (UAS) squadrons, a new light amphibious war- The central theme of his planning guidance is that the 2020 Proposal Marine Corps Aviation Plan called for nine squadrons to each ship and new mobile air defense and counterprecision guided Marine Corps must be organized, trained and equipped for a Reducing the maximum receive 16 F-35B short-takeo -and-vertical-landing variants, missile systems. Some of the advanced technologies being high-end fi ght with China set at sea. This means a complete number of F-35B and C aircraft fi ve squadrons to each receive 10 F-35Bs and four squadrons considered are directed-energy systems, loitering munitions, deemphasis of the types of counterterrorism missions the per squadron to 10 to each receive 10 F-35Cs. signature management, electronic warfare and expeditionary Corps has specialized in over the past two decades. The new plan, prompted in part by a perceived pilot short- airfi eld capabilities to support manned and unmanned aircraft. Going forward, the service should not focus on forcible age, drops the maximum number of aircraft for any one The Navy is conducting market research to gauge industry entry. Instead, the Marine Corps will pivot and focus on dis- squadron to 10. “[The reduction] comes out to about 45 in the interest in adapting a commercial ship design for a light am- tributed operations, where small groups of Marines fi ght in- squadrons and probably another 15 or so in overhead—I would phibious warship in fi scal 2022-23. The new ship would operate dependently and employ advanced technologies such as the guess a total of 60 fewer F-35s,” Cancian says. in small, undeveloped ports and beaches, and secondary mis- Lockheed Martin F-35B, unmanned systems and long-range Callan says he does not expect a reduction in the planned sions may include force sustainment and reconnaissance. The precision fi res. Berger’s plan also calls for developing the abili- US MARN CORPS PHOTOS purchase of F-35s to occur until after fi scal 2026-27. program executive o ce for ships plans to host two industry ty to “dominate inside the enemy’s weapon engagement zone.” And for now, Berger says the Marines are not planning to days for a more comprehensive discussion on the platform con- To get within that engagement zone, China’s “bubble of air, buy fewer of the fi fth-generation fi ghters. “Right now, I’m not cept, capabilities and additional design methodology. missile and naval power,” the Marines will have to develop CH53K changing the program of record,” Berger says. “But I am sig- Cancian predicts the Corps will add three armed UAS “low-signature, a ordable, and risk-worthy platforms,” writes Deactivating HMH-462 may have signifi cant consequences naling to industry we have to be prepared to adjust.” squadrons. It is unclear what UAS the service will select, es- Mark Cancian, senior advisor with the Center for Strategic for the Sikorsky CH-53K King Stallion. “I think they’re go- pecially since it opted not to pursue a shipboard Group 5 UAS and International Studies International Security Program. ing to cut about one-third of the [CH-53K] buy,” Cancian tells V22/AH1Z as part of the Marine Air-Ground Task Force UAS Expedition- The modernized design is envisioned to optimize the Aviation Week. Cancian served in the Marine Corps more than The Marines Corps has fi nished its buy of both the Bell-Boeing ary (MUX) program. “They could have bought Reapers if they Marine Corps for the National Defense Strategy and will 30 years and has worked on force structure and acquisition MV-22B Osprey and Bell AH-1Z Viper. Since the service is really wanted to get the capability out there quickly,” he says. require signifi cant changes over the next 10 years. The ser- issues in the O¥ ce of the Secretary of Defense and at the proposing to deactivate squadrons that operate these aircraft, The Marines operate General Atomics MQ-9 Reapers from vice proposes a 7% reduction in total force structure, roughly O¥ ce of Management and Budget. Cancian says it could use the additional aircraft for overhead MCAS Yuma in Arizona to support Task Force Southwest in 12,000 personnel. “We suppose that implies 12 fewer CH-53Ks, though the and attrition. For example, the Marines are still using MV- Afghanistan. The capability is intended to inform concepts Specifi cally, for aviation, the service recommends deacti- program has not yet hit production, and a total of 196 are 22As for V-22 training and could potentially replace those with of operations for MUX and is allowing the service to nurture vating Marine Medium Tiltrotor Sqdn. (VMM) 264, Marine planned,” says Byron Callan, managing director of Capital the B model, he says. The service could also opt to use the its own cadre of UAS operators, according to Lt. Gen. Steven Heavy Helicopter Sqdn. (HMH) 462, Marine Light-Attack Alpha Partners. surplus Vipers to replace damaged aircraft. Rudder, deputy commandant for aviation. Helicopter Sqdns. (HMLA) 469 and 367, and Marine Wing If the commandant’s plan becomes reality, the CH-53K will “With a family-of-systems approach, my sense is we’re go- Support Groups (MWSG) 27 and 37. most likely trigger a congressional warning of a cost overrun GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES ing to have an air vehicle that can do some of the higher-end Those changes in force structure also include major revi- for a major acquisition program, known as a Nunn-McCurdy The proposed future-force design is not all doom and gloom requirements from a land-based, high-endurance vehicle, but sions to the Marines’ previous plans to develop and procure breach. That occurs when the procurement unit cost increas- for industry. Over the next 10 years, the Marine Corps intends we’re still going to maintain a shipboard capability. It may just aviation and missile systems. es 15% or more over the current baseline estimate, or 30% to make investments in long-range precision fi res, advanced not be as big as we originally confi gured,” says Rudder. c

3 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 33 DEFENSE

High-Accuracy Detection Exploita- Army Aims High tion System (HADES). The Army wants a “business-jet- class” aircraft that can reach at least > THE SERVICE PLANS A SENSOR FLY-OFF IN 2021 41,000 ft., or 64% above the service ceiling of the de Havilland Dash > MODIFIED COMMERCIAL DERIVATIVES ARE BEING CONSIDERED 8-Q315 EO-5C Airborne Reconnais- sance Low-Multifunction (ARL-M), Steve Trimble Washington which replaces the Dash 7-derived EO-5 fl eet starting this year. wkward questions arose two by Lockheed Martin onto the Em- “[The Army is] looking at sever- years ago when the U.S. Air braer 145 regional jet. But the sensor al different platforms,” says Keller. AForce chose to cancel the $6.9 package proved to be more than 40% “There are some efforts to look at billion J-Stars Recap program—while heavier than the payload limit of the [aircraft] the other services have that citing the Joint Stars fl eet’s vulnerabil- ERJ-145, which forced the Army to we’d be able to take and use as-is or ity to projected advances in adversary cancel the $879 million engineering with modifi cations to include our own air defense technology after 2025. and manufacturing development pro- sensor capabilities, or potentially a After all, if the Air Force doubted gram for the ACS in January 2006. new platform altogether.” the ability of a commercial aircraft Over the next decade, the Army’s pri- Asked if the P-8 or C-37 aircraft derivative to perform the Northrop orities for the fi xed-wing intelligence represent the performance the Army fl eet shifted to supporting counter- seeks for AISR, Keller replied: “You’re terrorist and counterinsurgent oper- in the right area.” Several commercial ations. The Army’s funding for AISR, how- aircraft derivatives, The Pentagon’s focus is back to ever, remains uncertain. The Joint including Boeing’s competing with powerful and sophis- Requirements Oversight Council has 737-based P-8A, could ticated militaries, forcing sweeping approved the initial capabilities doc- changes in modernization priorities. ument for the service’s Multi-Domain be considered for the For the Army’s intelligence branch, Sensor System (MDSS) concept, Army’s next airborne U.S. ARMY intelligence eet.

U.S. ARMY CON THROM/AST

Grumman E-8C’s ground-surveillance mission, how long could similar aircraft in the Defense Department’s fleet—such as the Navy’s Boeing 737-derived P-8A or the Air Force’s the technology priority has shifted which includes the AISR fl eet as the own Boeing RC-135—expect to con- from technology that can identify most near-term priority. Follow-on tinue operating with a reasonable radio-frequency triggers for impro- plans include an Army-operated sat- chance of survival? vised explosive devices to electronic ellite constellation in low Earth orbit A new program emerging with- receivers that can eavesdrop on com- and stratospheric airships. So far, the in the Army’s airborne intelligence munications between an adversary’s Army has requested only about $50 branch raises the question again. headquarters and field units, along million in the fi scal 2021 budget for If the Army’s program proceeds as with long-range radars that can de- the MDSS, requiring signifi cant new planned, a small fl eet of fewer than tect mobile, high-value targets for a investment in the service’s fi scal 2022 10 large derivatives of a commercial new class of surface-to-surface mis- spending request. aircraft—potentially, a P-8, Gulfst- siles with ranges far beyond the Ar- “It is a signifi cant amount of mon- ream G550-derived C-37 or Bombar- my’s current 185-mi. limit. ey,” says Keller. “From the perspec- dier Global 6000-based E-11—could “As we started to pivot to that peer- tive of [the intelligence branch] and be fielded by around fiscal 2028, to-peer threat, we realized that our the Army leadership, they look at this performing a mission that combines ability to stand o© and see deep was as a game changer and as something many of the capabilities of the E-8C very limited,” says Christian Keller, that could really enable us.” J-Stars and signals-intelligence-gath- the Army’s project director for sen- The newly developed HADES pay- ering RC-135 Rivet Joint. sors-aerial intelligence. load would provide many of the same The program revives and expands Last year, the Army quietly started onboard capabilities, but from a high- the concept for the Aerial Common searching for a new intelligence-gather vantage point, extending the range Sensor (ACS), which attempted to ering Aerial Intelligence, Surveillance of the Army’s most sophisticated package an advanced, multi-intelli- and Reconnaissance (AISR) aircraft, electronic eavesdropping equipment, gence-gathering payload integrated which would be equipped with a new along with a synthetic aperture radar

3 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE

High-Accuracy Detection Exploita- (SAR) that can track moving targets launched effects and things of that quisition system. The program exec- Army Aims High tion System (HADES). on the ground. nature,” says Keller. utive o cer for aviation is responsible The Army wants a “business-jet- As planned, the Army’s future Air-launched e ects (ALE) refers for acquiring the aircraft, a process class” aircraft that can reach at least AISR aircraft will match the perfor- to a broad range of systems in devel- that will begin in fi scal 2022 or 2023. > THE SERVICE PLANS A SENSOR FLY-OFF IN 2021 41,000 ft., or 64% above the service mance of the Air Force’s RC-135 and opment. Recoverable ALEs are essen- Keller’s o ce is directing the acquisi- ceiling of the de Havilland Dash retiring E-8C but with a payload that tially air-launched unmanned aircraft tion process for HADES, the sensor > MODIFIED COMMERCIAL DERIVATIVES ARE BEING CONSIDERED 8-Q315 EO-5C Airborne Reconnais- performs the functions of both. systems. Disposable ALEs represent payload. A fl y-o to compare the ca- sance Low-Multifunction (ARL-M), China and Russia have displayed munitions or nonkinetic systems such pabilities of the companies seeking to Steve Trimble Washington which replaces the Dash 7-derived anti-radiation missiles with ultra-long as decoys and jammers. If deployable supply the HADES package is sched- EO-5 fl eet starting this year. range, presenting a perfect weapon ALEs become part of the AISR re- uled for next year. wkward questions arose two by Lockheed Martin onto the Em- “[The Army is] looking at sever- against a derivative of a commercial quirement, the manned aircraft could “From there we’re going to select years ago when the U.S. Air braer 145 regional jet. But the sensor al different platforms,” says Keller. airliner or business jet with a radiat- act as a mothership and preserve a a set of sensors and be able to have AForce chose to cancel the $6.9 package proved to be more than 40% “There are some efforts to look at ing sensor. Despite the rising threat, capability to operate in the presence that ready for whenever we do have a billion J-Stars Recap program—while heavier than the payload limit of the [aircraft] the other services have that the Army is not particularly worried of long-range anti-radiation missiles. platform in place,” Keller says. citing the Joint Stars fl eet’s vulnerabil- ERJ-145, which forced the Army to we’d be able to take and use as-is or about the relevance or survivability of “When the risk is high, they’re As the acquisition unfolds, the ity to projected advances in adversary cancel the $879 million engineering with modifi cations to include our own such an aircraft. probably going to fl y this thing in a Army is seeking to avoid the same er- air defense technology after 2025. and manufacturing development pro- sensor capabilities, or potentially a A critical factor in the Air Force’s way where it’s going to maintain a safe rors that doomed the ACS program 14 After all, if the Air Force doubted gram for the ACS in January 2006. new platform altogether.” decision to cancel the J-Stars Recap distance and still be able to do its job,” years ago. The two key lessons it has the ability of a commercial aircraft Over the next decade, the Army’s pri- Asked if the P-8 or C-37 aircraft involved the range of the sensor. The says Keller. drawn from the ACS experience are derivative to perform the Northrop orities for the fi xed-wing intelligence represent the performance the Army APY-7 radar on the E-8C has a listed The high-altitude AISR also is ex- to be careful about how much author- fl eet shifted to supporting counter- seeks for AISR, Keller replied: “You’re range of more than 96 mi. Russia ad- pected to perform other roles. Along ity to give the contractor over the air- terrorist and counterinsurgent oper- in the right area.” vertizes the 40N6 interceptor in the with the smaller, King Air-derived craft and sensor integration process, Several commercial ations. The Army’s funding for AISR, how- S-400 air defense system, which has RC-12, the EO-5 fleet maintains a and to select an aircraft with plenty aircraft derivatives, The Pentagon’s focus is back to ever, remains uncertain. The Joint been exported to China, with a 400- vigilant presence on the Korean Pen- of spare capacity. including Boeing’s competing with powerful and sophis- Requirements Oversight Council has km (250-mi.) range. If an aircraft insula, for example. The aircraft per- “We gave the contractor full authority to pick the airframe and all 737-based P-8A, could ticated militaries, forcing sweeping approved the initial capabilities doc- such as the E-8C must be stationed form routine patrols, developing an changes in modernization priorities. ument for the service’s Multi-Domain beyond the range of the 40N6 or the electronic “pattern of life” of North the sensors,” says Keller. “We had be considered for the U.S. ARMY For the Army’s intelligence branch, Sensor System (MDSS) concept, 40N6e export version, the APY-7 ra- Korean military emitters such as ra- issues—a lot of it was [size, weight, Army’s next airborne dar would be unable to see into enemy dars, communications systems and power and cooling]. And then when intelligence eet. territory. jammers. we tried to make some adjustments Army o cials recognize the prob- “I see the [AISR] very much doing on the [concept of operations], we lem but suggest there are work- the same thing but on a more capable didn’t get a lot of support [from the arounds, even for a nonstealthy, radi- platform, with more capable sensors contractor]. So we learned a lot of U.S. ARMY ating aircraft. and fl ying higher and looking deeper,” hard lessons that way. Those lessons CON THROM/AST “I could also see a case where you says Keller. were not lost on the Army, and [we’re] might be deploying other capabilities Responsibility for the AISR acqui- making sure we pick a platform that Grumman E-8C’s ground-surveil- of a platform like this, such as air- sition is divided within the Army ac- has margin and the ability to grow.” c lance mission, how long could similar aircraft in the Defense Department’s fleet—such as the Navy’s Boeing 737-derived P-8A or the Air Force’s the technology priority has shifted which includes the AISR fl eet as the own Boeing RC-135—expect to con- from technology that can identify most near-term priority. Follow-on tinue operating with a reasonable radio-frequency triggers for impro- plans include an Army-operated sat- chance of survival? vised explosive devices to electronic ellite constellation in low Earth orbit The U.S. Army’s focus on intelligence-gathering aircraft has shifted to A new program emerging with- receivers that can eavesdrop on com- and stratospheric airships. So far, the sophisticated threats, marking a change from a decade of investment in the Army’s airborne intelligence munications between an adversary’s Army has requested only about $50 in low-end capabilities such as the RC-12 (pictured). branch raises the question again. headquarters and field units, along million in the fi scal 2021 budget for If the Army’s program proceeds as with long-range radars that can de- the MDSS, requiring signifi cant new planned, a small fl eet of fewer than tect mobile, high-value targets for a investment in the service’s fi scal 2022 10 large derivatives of a commercial new class of surface-to-surface mis- spending request. aircraft—potentially, a P-8, Gulfst- siles with ranges far beyond the Ar- “It is a signifi cant amount of mon- ream G550-derived C-37 or Bombar- my’s current 185-mi. limit. ey,” says Keller. “From the perspec- dier Global 6000-based E-11—could “As we started to pivot to that peer- tive of [the intelligence branch] and be fielded by around fiscal 2028, to-peer threat, we realized that our the Army leadership, they look at this performing a mission that combines ability to stand o© and see deep was as a game changer and as something many of the capabilities of the E-8C very limited,” says Christian Keller, that could really enable us.” J-Stars and signals-intelligence-gath- the Army’s project director for sen- The newly developed HADES pay- OHN HGGNS/US AR ORC ering RC-135 Rivet Joint. sors-aerial intelligence. load would provide many of the same The program revives and expands Last year, the Army quietly started onboard capabilities, but from a high- the concept for the Aerial Common searching for a new intelligence-gather vantage point, extending the range Sensor (ACS), which attempted to ering Aerial Intelligence, Surveillance of the Army’s most sophisticated package an advanced, multi-intelli- and Reconnaissance (AISR) aircraft, electronic eavesdropping equipment, gence-gathering payload integrated which would be equipped with a new along with a synthetic aperture radar

3 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 3 DEFENSE US ARMY GA-ASI Adapts Gray Eagle for FVL Future

> NEW SENSORS, STORES SET FOR JUNE DEMO > ARMY’S AUAS REQUIREMENT REMAINS UNDEFINED

The MQ-1C’s mission is shifting from supporting counterinsurgent operations to lling a potentially critical role in the U.S. Army’s emerging strategy for more sophisticated adversaries. Steve Trimble Washington

s the U.S. Army quietly considers options for the a more sophisticated military adversary. The Army also Advanced Unmanned Aircraft Systems, General wants a UAS that can employ a more diverse set of e ects A Atomics Aeronautical Systems Inc. (GA-ASI) is than an AGM-114, including nonkinetic options and even staging a series of demonstrations to prove the MQ-1C recoverable systems. Extended-Range (ER) UAS is up to the task, with a few In November, GA-ASI’s fi rst demonstration showed how upgrades and perhaps additional production. the Army could in the future operate the MQ-1C from a Public attention has focused on two intense competi- laptop computer instead of a cumbersome, shelter-based tions now underway by the Army’s aviation branch: the ground control station. GA-ASI also integrated the Lynx Future Long-Range Assault Aircraft (FLRAA) and the Block 30A SAR with a ground-moving-target indicator Future Attack Reconnaissance Aircraft (FARA). But the mode, which is capable of detecting targets at up to 47 mi. Army’s original plans for the Future Vertical Lift family (75 km). Such distances are well beyond the range of any of systems included a third acquisition program: the Ad- onboard AGM-114 missiles, but the MQ-1C now could be vanced Unmanned Aircraft Systems (AUAS). Unlike the used to cue the Army’s surface-to-surface missile batteries, rapidly moving FLRAA and FARA programs, however, the such as the Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System or Army has said little about the next steps for AUAS since Advanced Tactical Missile System. completing a concept design phase in early 2019. The second demonstration in January added more ca- Meanwhile, GA-ASI’s strategy is focused on proving the pabilities, including the L3Harris Rio Nino lightweight MQ-1C ER, also known as the Gray Eagle, as the Army’s AUAS. communications-intelligence payload. The Rio’s antennas Since November, the Poway, California-based compa- are described as capable of detecting emitters such as a ny has staged two demonstrations funded by internal re- modern adversary’s command-and-control links at ranges search and development (IRAD) accounts of the MQ-1C up to 155 mi., vastly extending the reach of the Army’s ER. A third and fi nal demonstration is planned in June. medium-altitude UAS fl eet. “We took it upon ourselves on IRAD,” says Chris Pehr- The demonstration also hinted about future weapon son, vice president of strategic development. stores. The aircraft carried two Area-I Altius-600s, which GA-ASI designed the MQ-1C about 15 years ago to meet belong to an emerging class of UAS called Air-Launched the Army’s requirements for an extended-range/multi- Effects (ALE). These stores are designed to perform a purpose (ER/MP) UAS. The ER/MP profi le called for the range of functions. Some are launched only to gather intel- MQ-1C to operate as a standalone system, one capable of ligence. Other ALEs carry sensors and explosives, creating sensing targets at a short range in any weather—using a new class of air-launched loitering munitions. either a Northrop Grumman StarLite synthetic aperture The MQ-1C will launch the ALEs for the fi rst time during radar (SAR) and an electro-optical/infrared payload—and a third demonstration scheduled in June in Arizona, which carrying up to four AGM-114 Hellfi re missiles. The aircraft so far has not been postponed due to the outbreak of the is controlled from a mobile, ground-control station con- novel coronavirus and COVID-19. tained in a shelter. “The threats the Army is thinking about with Gray But the Army’s requirements for a medium-altitude, Eagle are the more tactical-range [surface-to-air missile Group 4 UAS are evolving. The AUAS requirements out- systems],” Pehrson says. “The Gray Eagle, even equipped lined in the concept design stage call for an aircraft that for [the future], is not going to be a penetrating platform. can sense dozens of kilometers beyond the limit of the cur- What the Gray Eagle will survive on is stando distance rent radar, as well as new payloads capable of identifying and awareness of threats.” c

3 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE US ARMY

GA-ASI Adapts Gray Eagle for FVL Future KF-X Radar Prototype an antenna and software from the ADD and Hanwha and signal processors and software from Elta. > NEW SENSORS, STORES SET FOR JUNE DEMO > ARMY’S AUAS REQUIREMENT REMAINS UNDEFINED Nears Ground Testing But South Korean officials and industry leaders have a strong tendency to play up the role of indigenous engineer- > ADD-HANHWA AND LIG NEX1 SENSORS ing work. It would not be surprising, therefore, if Elta helped BOTH USE GALLIUM NITRIDE in design or at least refinement of the demonstrator. Similar- ly, the Israeli company may be quietly helping, or standing > ELTA HAS SUPPORTED WORK ON KF-X by to help, with development of the production sensor. RADAR DEVELOPMENT In December, the ADD announced a contract with Hanwha to add the terrain-following function. Pictures and Kim Minseok Seoul and Bradley Perrett Beijing models of the KF-X have previously shown it with a navigation pod, like the U.S. AAQ-13, implying that the radar adar development for the Korea Aerospace Industries lacked terrain-following, which is used for low-altitude flight. (KAI) KF-X fighter is moving toward production of a A video presentation made by Hanwha shows the demon- Rprototype, following evaluation of a technology strator radar was tested in three air-to-air modes: all-aspect demonstrator in Israel and search and track, nose aspect South Korea. The program, led search and track and air com- by the government’s Agency for LIG Nex1 blocks of TRMs from Phase bat maneuvering. The tested The MQ-1C’s mission is shifting from supporting counter- Defense Development (ADD), C (left) and Phase D (right), with a air-to-surface modes were insurgent operations to lling a potentially critical role in the is planning to ground-test the business card for scale. The Phase C stationary and moving-target production-representative pro- indication, synthetic aperture, U.S. Army’s emerging strategy for more sophisticated adversaries. block is deeper. totype by the end of May, man- ranging and air-to-sea. Steve Trimble Washington ufacturing subcontractor As for the LIG Nex1 private Hanwha says. effort, building of a complete s the U.S. Army quietly considers options for the a more sophisticated military adversary. The Army also The company that Hanwha radar and flight-testing it is Advanced Unmanned Aircraft Systems, General wants a UAS that can employ a more diverse set of e ects beat to the contract, LIG Nex1, planned for 2023, a source A Atomics Aeronautical Systems Inc. (GA-ASI) is than an AGM-114, including nonkinetic options and even this year is beginning a fourth close to the program says. staging a series of demonstrations to prove the MQ-1C recoverable systems. phase in its effort to privately The transmission frequency Extended-Range (ER) UAS is up to the task, with a few In November, GA-ASI’s ﬁ rst demonstration showed how develop an advanced fighter is in the X band. upgrades and perhaps additional production. the Army could in the future operate the MQ-1C from a radar, aiming at reducing the Saab has provided advice Public attention has focused on two intense competi- laptop computer instead of a cumbersome, shelter-based size of transmission and recep- to LIG Nex1 on this program, tions now underway by the Army’s aviation branch: the ground control station. GA-ASI also integrated the Lynx tion units. especially in regard to testing, Future Long-Range Assault Aircraft (FLRAA) and the Block 30A SAR with a ground-moving-target indicator Development of the KF-X ra- says the source. The South Future Attack Reconnaissance Aircraft (FARA). But the mode, which is capable of detecting targets at up to 47 mi. dar is 50% complete, Hanwha Korean company is designing Army’s original plans for the Future Vertical Lift family (75 km). Such distances are well beyond the range of any researcher Hong Yoon-Sung all the hardware. of systems included a third acquisition program: the Ad- onboard AGM-114 missiles, but the MQ-1C now could be told the Chosun Ilbo newspa- LIG Nex1 began work on vanced Unmanned Aircraft Systems (AUAS). Unlike the used to cue the Army’s surface-to-surface missile batteries, per, adding that the prototype AESA radars with what it rapidly moving FLRAA and FARA programs, however, the such as the Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System or would be tested within months. calls Phase A in 2007-10. At Army has said little about the next steps for AUAS since Advanced Tactical Missile System. A prototype radar is due to that time and in Phase B, in completing a concept design phase in early 2019. The second demonstration in January added more ca- be fitted in a KF-X for flight 2011-13, it used gallium arse-

Meanwhile, GA-ASI’s strategy is focused on proving the pabilities, including the L3Harris Rio Nino lightweight tests in 2023. Development is BRADLEY PERRETT/AW&ST nide. For Phase C, in 2014-19, MQ-1C ER, also known as the Gray Eagle, as the Army’s AUAS. communications-intelligence payload. The Rio’s antennas scheduled for completion in it moved to gallium nitride, Since November, the Poway, California-based compa- are described as capable of detecting emitters such as a 2026, the year in which deliveries of the fighter are sup - which, the source says, provided 10 times as much power ny has staged two demonstrations funded by internal re- modern adversary’s command-and-control links at ranges posed to begin. Software for air-to-air and air-to-surface from each transmit-receive module (TRM). A Phase C ra- search and development (IRAD) accounts of the MQ-1C up to 155 mi., vastly extending the reach of the Army’s modes is due to be developed by October 2021. dar was tested in the air, mounted on the cargo door of a ER. A third and fi nal demonstration is planned in June. medium-altitude UAS fl eet. The design includes an active, electronically scanned Lockheed Martin C-130H Hercules. “We took it upon ourselves on IRAD,” says Chris Pehr- The demonstration also hinted about future weapon array (AESA) and, according to a government research The key objective of Phase D is reducing antenna depth. son, vice president of strategic development. stores. The aircraft carried two Area-I Altius-600s, which institute statement in 2014, gallium-nitride components. The array is composed of blocks that each contain 16 TRMs, GA-ASI designed the MQ-1C about 15 years ago to meet belong to an emerging class of UAS called Air-Launched In several countries, the latter are superseding gallium- which are externally visible as little holes. If the blocks can the Army’s requirements for an extended-range/multi- Effects (ALE). These stores are designed to perform a arsenide technology—formerly the standard for AESAs. be shallower, the array they form will be farther from the purpose (ER/MP) UAS. The ER/MP profi le called for the range of functions. Some are launched only to gather intel- The demonstrator also uses gallium-nitride technology, nose. Since the radome tapers, the array can be larger. MQ-1C to operate as a standalone system, one capable of ligence. Other ALEs carry sensors and explosives, creating according to the South Korean news outlet Today Defense. The benefit of this is greater than it may seem. In a repre- sensing targets at a short range in any weather—using a new class of air-launched loitering munitions. Cooling power provided to the demonstrator radar is 7.7 sentative aircraft design, there will be space for a 750-mm- either a Northrop Grumman StarLite synthetic aperture The MQ-1C will launch the ALEs for the fi rst time during kW, Hanwha says. Analyzing the gallium-arsenide Northrop dia. (29.5-in.) Phase D antenna instead of the 700 mm radar (SAR) and an electro-optical/infrared payload—and a third demonstration scheduled in June in Arizona, which Grumman APG-83 radar, Hellenic Air Force researchers possible for the Phase C array, says the source. Area and carrying up to four AGM-114 Hellfi re missiles. The aircraft so far has not been postponed due to the outbreak of the last year worked on the basis of 5.6 kW cooling and found an therefore power can be 15% greater, at least in principle. is controlled from a mobile, ground-control station con- novel coronavirus and COVID-19. average antenna output of up to 1 kW. So the South Korean In practice, LIG Nex1 expects to fit an antenna of about tained in a shelter. “The threats the Army is thinking about with Gray demonstrator should exceed that figure. 1,100 Phase D TRMs in the larger space, compared with But the Army’s requirements for a medium-altitude, Eagle are the more tactical-range [surface-to-air missile Hanwha said in November that evaluation of the demon- about 1,000 for Phase C, so the increase is 10%. Group 4 UAS are evolving. The AUAS requirements out- systems],” Pehrson says. “The Gray Eagle, even equipped strator hardware had been completed. The demonstrator LIG Nex1 exhibited TRMs from all four phases at the lined in the concept design stage call for an aircraft that for [the future], is not going to be a penetrating platform. radar was installed in an Elta Systems-owned Boeing 737 Seoul Aerospace and Defense Exhibition held in October can sense dozens of kilometers beyond the limit of the cur- What the Gray Eagle will survive on is stando distance testbed and flew 10 times in Israel and six times in South 2019. It also showed a mockup of a complete radar, but the rent radar, as well as new payloads capable of identifying and awareness of threats.” c Korea, the ADD said in October. The demonstrator includes exhibit provided little information. c

3 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 37 DEFENSE

Tempest Accelerates Toward “We need to talk about the value of the Combat Air as opposed to the cost of Com- End-of-Year Decision Milestone bat Air,” Kennedy says. “The Combat Air Strategy outlined very clearly at the time > INDUSTRY REMAINS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT that Combat Air is a critical POTENTIAL JAPANESE PARTNERSHIP national asset.” That is not just a reference ITALYSWEDEN JOINT STUDIES FEEDING to the Royal Air Force (RAF), he > suggests, but to the wider indus- INTO UK BUSINESS CASE The UK’s Tempest technology Tony Osborne London and innovation work will expand oward year-end, British during 2020 and 2021. procurement o - Tcials will submit trial enterprise that “underpins their fi rst business case the ability for the RAF to for pursuing develop- BAE SYSTES EPT BARD STTERST have the kind of freedom ment of a next-generation combat aircraft. of action [and] opera- The process will be the fi rst major milestone for the UK’s tional advantage that accelerating Combat Air Strategy and the Team Tempest it requires.” industry consortium supporting the UK’s Future Combat A key part of bring- Air System Technology Initiative (FCAS TI). ing the platform to It has been almost two years since the UK formally an- the fore in 2035 will nounced it was embarking on FCAS TI, developing the be international part- processes, technology and experience necessary to take nerships. The UK has already secured a 10-year memo- the lead on the development of a next-generation combat randum of understanding from Sweden and a statement aircraft. of intent agreement with Italy, signed in July and Septem- The government has invested close to £2 billion ($2.5 ber, respectively. Both accords involve looking at how the billion) for the FCAS TI, with industry—including BAE nations can best collaborate and how the information ob- Systems, Leonardo, MBDA and Rolls-Royce—also making tained from ongoing studies will “inform the business case,” sizable but as yet undisclosed investments to support it Kennedy notes. through the Team Tempest consortium. The aim of the studies is to align not only on military “The idea of bringing a system into service by 2035 is a requirements but also on industrial expectations, timelines challenging task,” Andrew Kennedy, BAE’s Tempest stra- and cost. The countries are also discussing the industrial tegic campaigns director, tells Aviation Week. “If you look model for the Tempest. Kennedy says it is possible the mod- back at recent programs and the type of capabilities we el adopted could be completely di£ erent from that used by are looking at, you are looking at a pretty racy program. . . . aerospace or defense in the past. So what we need to do within the Tempest activity is give “What we are trying to do is fi nd a model that is opti- [ourselves] confi dence and give the government confi dence mized for delivery. . . . I can’t go into the details of what it that we can deliver on those promises.” is that we’re looking at, but what we’re focused on is the The promises are a challenge. They call for development end-goal as opposed to anything else,” he says. of an advanced next-generation combat aircraft that is easi- Procurement o cials are looking at the F-35 develop- ly upgradable and programmable and that can be delivered ment model, with the UK as a “controlling mind.” But some in half the time it took to bring the Eurofi ghter Typhoon to have suggested this may be too autocratic. Another option the front line. Several elements of the work to support the could be the so-called “best athlete” approach, whereby Tempest have been disclosed in recent months. Leonardo each nation brings its best capabilities to the table, such revealed work on miniaturized radar warning receiver tech- as Sweden’s rapid-development capabilities or Italy’s ex- nology, while Rolls-Royce has been progressing in its work perience in electronic warfare. on embedded electrical starter generators. Work to bring Japan onboard is also proceeding de- Hurdles remain, however. spite media reports suggesting Tokyo is instead looking at The UK may be busy battling the novel coronavirus that working with the U.S. on its JF-X program to replace the causes COVID-19, but it is also ploughing through an inte- Mitsubishi F-2. grated review of its defense capabilities, with a particular Kennedy says the Team Tempest partners “continue focus on the UK’s oft-criticized defense procurement pro- to work and support the UK government in discussions cess (AW&ST March 23-April 5, p. 46). with the Japanese to consider more deeply how the two Nonetheless, the view from industry is that the Tempest nations can collaborate on the combined combat air re- will be viewed favorably as a wider national e£ ort that could quirements.” have spillover benefi ts for other sectors. The work has al- The business case will decide whether the Tempest ready created 1,000 full-time jobs across industry and gov- concepts will be mature enough to begin the traditional ernment. This will grow to around 1,400 jobs by year-end development cycle. If approved, the project will move from and 2,500 in 2021. And exports could help underpin London’s the current concept into an assessment phase, with a cor- diplomatic e£ orts, particularly in the post-Brexit world. responding lofty increase in spending. c

3 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE SIKORSKY

Tempest Accelerates Toward “We need to talk about the value of the turity of their designs, and their ability not only to meet the Combat Air as opposed to the cost of Com- Army’s schedule and “execute the Competitive Prototype End-of-Year Decision Milestone bat Air,” Kennedy says. “The Combat Air program, but move into a final integration qualification Strategy outlined very clearly at the time phase and into production.” > INDUSTRY REMAINS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT that Combat Air is a critical AVX with L3Harris Technologies and Karem with POTENTIAL JAPANESE PARTNERSHIP national asset.” Northrop Grumman and Raytheon had strong teams, but That is not just a reference Raider-X’s rigid coaxial rotors provide as small companies they were always outsiders. Boeing to the Royal Air Force (RAF), he offered an all-new winged compound that likely was judged ITALYSWEDEN JOINT STUDIES FEEDING speed and agility. > suggests, but to the wider indus- higher- risk. Bell drew on its 525 commercial helicopter and INTO UK BUSINESS CASE Sikorsky on its S-97 prototype. The UK’s Tempest technology Rugen calls out Bell’s low-drag design and says the Raider Tony Osborne London and innovation work will expand “continues to impress” in flight tests. “It presents us with a Risk and Reward great problem to have because we have two great compet- oward year-end, British during 2020 and 2021. itors on a program that we must deliver for the Army. Our procurement o - > BELL 360 INVICTUS DRAWS ON COMMERCIAL No. 1 gap is our future scout aircraft,” he says. Tcials will submit trial enterprise that “underpins MODEL 525 The Army has set aside $750 million for each prototype, their ﬁ rst business case the ability for the RAF to $15 million of which was spent on Phase 1 initial design, for pursuing develop- BAE SYSTES EPT BARD STTERST have the kind of freedom > SIKORSKY’S RAIDER-X DEVELOPED and manufacturers are contributing their own funds, says ment of a next-generation combat aircraft. of action [and] opera- FROM S-97 PROTOTYPE Bailey. The next major decision point is the final design re- The process will be the ﬁ rst major milestone for the UK’s tional advantage that view, planned for December, when the Army will again as- accelerating Combat Air Strategy and the Team Tempest it requires.” Graham Warwick and Lee Hudson Washington sess whether the competitors are meeting the requirement industry consortium supporting the UK’s Future Combat A key part of bring- and if there is a “risk of not meeting our schedule,” he says. Air System Technology Initiative (FCAS TI). ing the platform to he U.S. Army has bracketed its chances of success- Ground-testing of the prototypes is planned to start in It has been almost two years since the UK formally an- the fore in 2035 will fully developing a new armed scout rotorcraft by 2022, with first flights targeted for November 2022. In the nounced it was embarking on FCAS TI, developing the be international part- Tselecting both conventional and unconventional de- fourth quarter of fiscal 2023, flight-testing will move from processes, technology and experience necessary to take nerships. The UK has already secured a 10-year memo- signs for two competing prototypes of its Future Attack the contractors’ sites to Redstone Arsenal in Alabama for the lead on the development of a next-generation combat randum of understanding from Sweden and a statement Reconnaissance Aircraft (FARA). a final flyoff evaluation using government-only crews. aircraft. of intent agreement with Italy, signed in July and Septem- Bell and Lockheed Martin company Sikorsky have The Army, meanwhile, will mature the FARA require- The government has invested close to £2 billion ($2.5 ber, respectively. Both accords involve looking at how the moved into Phase 2 of the FARA Competitive Prototype ments through a series of gates leading to a weapon sys- billion) for the FCAS TI, with industry—including BAE nations can best collaborate and how the information ob- program, with the Army terminating “other transaction tem preliminary design review and competitive downselect

Systems, Leonardo, MBDA and Rolls-Royce—also making tained from ongoing studies will “inform the business case,” for prototype” agreements with AVX Aircraft, Boeing and BELL sizable but as yet undisclosed investments to support it Kennedy notes. Karem Aircraft, which lost. through the Team Tempest consortium. The aim of the studies is to align not only on military The decision pits the most conventional option, the Bell “The idea of bringing a system into service by 2035 is a requirements but also on industrial expectations, timelines 360 Invictus winged helicopter, against Sikorsky’s unconven- challenging task,” Andrew Kennedy, BAE’s Tempest stra- and cost. The countries are also discussing the industrial tional Raider-X compound helicopter in a schedule-driven tegic campaigns director, tells Aviation Week. “If you look model for the Tempest. Kennedy says it is possible the mod- contest to replace Boeing AH-64Es used in the armed recon- back at recent programs and the type of capabilities we el adopted could be completely di£ erent from that used by naissance role. The first unit is to be equipped in fiscal 2030. are looking at, you are looking at a pretty racy program. . . . aerospace or defense in the past. “We could not have asked for more,” says Dan Bailey, So what we need to do within the Tempest activity is give “What we are trying to do is fi nd a model that is opti- FARA program manager. “All five of the vendors brought [ourselves] confi dence and give the government confi dence mized for delivery. . . . I can’t go into the details of what it different configurations. And the beauty going forward that we can deliver on those promises.” is that we’re looking at, but what we’re focused on is the is we have two different configurations continuing in the The promises are a challenge. They call for development end-goal as opposed to anything else,” he says. program.” The wing and second engine are key Procurement o cials are looking at the F-35 develop- of an advanced next-generation combat aircraft that is easi- Few mandatory requirements have been set for FARA, to Invictus’ speed capability. ly upgradable and programmable and that can be delivered ment model, with the UK as a “controlling mind.” But some but they include a maximum cruise speed of at least 180 kt. in half the time it took to bring the Eurofi ghter Typhoon to have suggested this may be too autocratic. Another option and a rotor diameter of no more than 40 ft. to enable the the front line. Several elements of the work to support the could be the so-called “best athlete” approach, whereby aircraft to fly between buildings in urban combat. from two to one in late 2023, enabling a program of record Tempest have been disclosed in recent months. Leonardo each nation brings its best capabilities to the table, such The Raider-X has side-by-side seating, rigid coaxial ro- to start in the first quarter of 2024. revealed work on miniaturized radar warning receiver tech- as Sweden’s rapid-development capabilities or Italy’s ex- tors, tail-mounted propulsor and a single 3,000-shp General “This is the beauty and benefit of the prototyping design nology, while Rolls-Royce has been progressing in its work perience in electronic warfare. Electric T901 engine. Sikorsky’s S-97 Raider demonstrator of this program,” says Pat Mason, program executive officer on embedded electrical starter generators. Work to bring Japan onboard is also proceeding de- has reached 207 kt. in flight testing. for aviation. “We will get to see both vendors go to their final Hurdles remain, however. spite media reports suggesting Tokyo is instead looking at The Invictus has tandem seating, a single main rotor and designs and build their prototype air vehicles as we simulta- The UK may be busy battling the novel coronavirus that working with the U.S. on its JF-X program to replace the a ducted, canted tail rotor. To meet the 180-kt. requirement, neously carry forward the integrated mission systems and causes COVID-19, but it is also ploughing through an inte- Mitsubishi F-2. the Bell design has a wing to offload the rotor and a supple- other elements of the FVL ecosystem. That will give us a grated review of its defense capabilities, with a particular Kennedy says the Team Tempest partners “continue mental power unit to augment the single T901. clear indication on the technology, maturity and the ability focus on the UK’s oft-criticized defense procurement pro- to work and support the UK government in discussions “Both performers we are taking into Phase 2 provide of the prototype aircraft to meet the requirements.” cess (AW&ST March 23-April 5, p. 46). with the Japanese to consider more deeply how the two leap-ahead capabilities . . . in speed, range and endurance at While configuration was not an explicit part of the eval- Nonetheless, the view from industry is that the Tempest nations can collaborate on the combined combat air re- range—that combination which gives us superior lethality uation, the downselect gives the Army disparate options. will be viewed favorably as a wider national e£ ort that could quirements.” and survivability over our current fleet,” says Brig. Gen. “We didn’t even tell them if it was a side-by-side or a tandem have spillover benefi ts for other sectors. The work has al- The business case will decide whether the Tempest Walter Rugen, director of the Future Vertical Lift (FVL) cockpit. . . . So it really was a holistic look at the overall ready created 1,000 full-time jobs across industry and gov- concepts will be mature enough to begin the traditional Cross-Functional Team. aircraft,” Bailey says. “The beauty will be that, in the fiscal ernment. This will grow to around 1,400 jobs by year-end development cycle. If approved, the project will move from The Bell and Sikorsky proposals were deemed “most ad- 2023 time frame, we will have two aircraft flying that bring and 2,500 in 2021. And exports could help underpin London’s the current concept into an assessment phase, with a cor- vantageous overall,” says Bailey. This was judged on three different unique aspects to the solution and allow the war- diplomatic e£ orts, particularly in the post-Brexit world. responding lofty increase in spending. c criteria: how well they met the mandatory attributes, ma- fighter to make the best decision.” c

3 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 39 DEFENSE

vious AEHF contracts by purchasing Finishing Touch AEHF-5 and -6 in a block buy,” says Mike Cacheiro, AEHF program manager at Lockheed Martin, which built > FIRST MISSION FOR U.S. SPACE FORCE the satellites. AEHF-6 was delivered into a geo- > LAUNCH TEAM EMBRACED SOCIAL DISTANCING stationary transfer orbit by a United Launch Alliance (ULA) Atlas V rock- Lee Hudson Washington and Irene Klotz Cape Canaveral et, which lifted off from Cape Canav- eral AFS on March 26. The launch was hile thousands of U.S. compa- March 24 prelaunch press conference. the first payload for the newly created nies and agencies shut down Milstar technology of the 1990s U.S. Space Force, though the base’s of- Wto help stem the spread of could support only low data rates, ficial renaming was postponed due to the COVID-19 coronavirus, the 45th which distorted voice quality. AEHF work and travel restrictions stemming Space Wing at Cape Canaveral AFS, incorporates Milstar’s low and medium from the COVID-19 pandemic. Florida, and United Launch Alliance data rates—from 75-2,400 bps and 4.8 Once AEHF-6 reaches its operation- launched the sixth and final member kbps-1.544 Mbps, respectively—and al orbit 22,000 mi. (35,400 km) above of a satellite constellation that is de- adds a new signal capable of support- the equator and passes initial tests, signed to provide secure, jam-proof ing 8.192 Mbps. The data rates are slow it will join a constellation to support communications services for Presi- by terrestrial standards but include the secure communications for the U.S. dent Donald Trump, U.S. armed forc- ability to resist jamming and continue Army, Navy, Air Force and national es and allies worldwide. operating even after a nuclear war. security agencies as well as interna- The Advanced Extremely High The AEHF satellites are cross- tional partners Australia, Canada, the Frequency (AEHF) network follows linked so they can transmit signals Netherlands and the UK. The constel- the five-member Military Strategic around the world without sending lation is designed to operate well into and Tactical Relay (Milstar) Block II data down to a ground station. They the 2030s. satellites, launched 1994-2003. Both include gimbaled-dish antennas to The launch was the first of nine networks provide national security reach mobile users, frequency-hop- planned U.S. Space Force missions leaders with assured, survivable com- ping radio technology and phased-ar- this year. The missions remain a top munications services that are difficult ray antennas that use software to priority for the military amid base for adversaries to detect or intercept. adapt transmission patterns to block shutdowns, travel disruptions and With 10 times the throughput of potential jamming signals. mandatory telework orders imple- the heritage Milstar system, the new The Air Force purchased the last mented in March to minimize the network will, for example, be able to two AEHF satellites, AEHF-5 and -6, spread of the novel coronavirus. support recognizable voice commu- under a firm, fixed-price contract for “We are continuing with the secre- nications, says Lt. Col. Paul La Tour, $2.15 billion for both spacecraft—more tary of defense’s priorities of taking AEHF space segment material leader. than 40% less than the predecessor care of our military members and their Imagine a post-nuclear environ- AEHF satellites. The cost does not families; second, continuing the mis- ment in which the U.S. president could include launch services. sion; and third, supporting the whole- communicate but the voice would not “The Pentagon was able to achieve of-government effort for the situation,” be recognizable, La Tour said during a more than 40% cost savings over pre- said Brig. Gen. Douglas Schiess, com- mander of the 45th Space Wing and

ULA director of the Eastern Range at Patrick AFB, Florida. For the AEHF-6 launch, the 45th Space Wing and ULA cut about 25% of their launch teams and implemented COVID-19 social-distancing protocol by spacing apart workers’ consoles and isolating teams. “For example, the crew working the AEHF launch and the next crew working a different launch— we’re keeping those two crews sepa- rated . . . so they’re not in the same facility at the same time,” Schiess says. Schiess also barred trainees and observers from mission control centers and closed the base from public launch viewing. A United Launch Alliance Atlas V The next National Security Space lifted off with the AEHF-6 satellite mission is a GPS-3 satellite, which is from Cape Canaveral on March 26. scheduled to launch onboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket on April 29. c

40 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE vious AEHF contracts by purchasing Finishing Touch AEHF-5 and -6 in a block buy,” says Mike Cacheiro, AEHF program manager at Lockheed Martin, which built > FIRST MISSION FOR U.S. SPACE FORCE the satellites. AEHF-6 was delivered into a geo- > LAUNCH TEAM EMBRACED SOCIAL DISTANCING stationary transfer orbit by a United Launch Alliance (ULA) Atlas V rock- Lee Hudson Washington and Irene Klotz Cape Canaveral et, which lifted off from Cape Canav- eral AFS on March 26. The launch was hile thousands of U.S. compa- March 24 prelaunch press conference. the first payload for the newly created nies and agencies shut down Milstar technology of the 1990s U.S. Space Force, though the base’s of- Wto help stem the spread of could support only low data rates, ficial renaming was postponed due to the COVID-19 coronavirus, the 45th which distorted voice quality. AEHF work and travel restrictions stemming Space Wing at Cape Canaveral AFS, incorporates Milstar’s low and medium from the COVID-19 pandemic. Florida, and United Launch Alliance data rates—from 75-2,400 bps and 4.8 Once AEHF-6 reaches its operation- launched the sixth and final member kbps-1.544 Mbps, respectively—and al orbit 22,000 mi. (35,400 km) above of a satellite constellation that is de- adds a new signal capable of support- the equator and passes initial tests, signed to provide secure, jam-proof ing 8.192 Mbps. The data rates are slow it will join a constellation to support communications services for Presi- by terrestrial standards but include the secure communications for the U.S. dent Donald Trump, U.S. armed forc- ability to resist jamming and continue Army, Navy, Air Force and national es and allies worldwide. operating even after a nuclear war. security agencies as well as interna- The Advanced Extremely High The AEHF satellites are cross- tional partners Australia, Canada, the Frequency (AEHF) network follows linked so they can transmit signals Netherlands and the UK. The constel- the five-member Military Strategic around the world without sending lation is designed to operate well into and Tactical Relay (Milstar) Block II data down to a ground station. They the 2030s. satellites, launched 1994-2003. Both include gimbaled-dish antennas to The launch was the first of nine networks provide national security reach mobile users, frequency-hop- planned U.S. Space Force missions Tomorrow’s Technology Leaders leaders with assured, survivable com- ping radio technology and phased-ar- this year. The missions remain a top munications services that are difficult ray antennas that use software to priority for the military amid base for adversaries to detect or intercept. adapt transmission patterns to block shutdowns, travel disruptions and With 10 times the throughput of potential jamming signals. mandatory telework orders imple- the heritage Milstar system, the new The Air Force purchased the last mented in March to minimize the Congratulations to the 2020 network will, for example, be able to two AEHF satellites, AEHF-5 and -6, spread of the novel coronavirus. support recognizable voice commu- under a firm, fixed-price contract for “We are continuing with the secre- nications, says Lt. Col. Paul La Tour, $2.15 billion for both spacecraft—more tary of defense’s priorities of taking 20 Twenties Winners! AEHF space segment material leader. than 40% less than the predecessor care of our military members and their Imagine a post-nuclear environ- AEHF satellites. The cost does not families; second, continuing the mis- Aviation Week Network and AIAA congratulate this year’s 20 Twenties honorees for ment in which the U.S. president could include launch services. sion; and third, supporting the whole- communicate but the voice would not “The Pentagon was able to achieve of-government effort for the situation,” their exceptional academic accomplishments, high value research and civil service. be recognizable, La Tour said during a more than 40% cost savings over pre- said Brig. Gen. Douglas Schiess, com- mander of the 45th Space Wing and ➤ Emily Beckman, Purdue University ➤ Alexis Hepburn, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University

ULA director of the Eastern Range at ➤ Valerie Bernstein, University of Colorado Boulder ➤ Chloe Johnson, University of Texas at Austin Patrick AFB, Florida. ➤ ➤ For the AEHF-6 launch, the 45th Kate Byrd, Harvard University Michelle Lin, University of Colorado Boulder Space Wing and ULA cut about 25% ➤ Katherine Carroll, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign ➤ Julia Mihaylov, Johns Hopkins University of their launch teams and implement- ➤ Sean Devey, University of Alabama ➤ Victoria Pellerito, Lawrence Technological University ed COVID-19 social-distancing protocol ➤ Paula do Vale Pereira, Massachusetts Institute of ➤ Ethan Plaehn, Purdue University by spacing apart workers’ consoles and Technology isolating teams. “For example, the crew ➤ Simon Shuham, University of Colorado Boulder ➤ working the AEHF launch and the S. Reza Fattahi M., Sharif University of Technology ➤ Gautham Viswaroopan, University of Colorado Boulder ➤ next crew working a different launch— Kanika Gakhar, Massachusetts Institute of Technology ➤ Laura Yenchesky, Massachusetts Institute of Technology we’re keeping those two crews sepa- ➤ Shannon Gatta, University of Washington ➤ David Zuehlke, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University rated . . . so they’re not in the same ➤ Jane Gillette, University of Alabama facility at the same time,” Schiess says. Schiess also barred trainees and observers from mission control cen- Learn more about these winners: ters and closed the base from public launch viewing. aviationweek.com/aerospace/introducing-2020-20-twenties A United Launch Alliance Atlas V The next National Security Space lifted off with the AEHF-6 satellite mission is a GPS-3 satellite, which is In Association With: from Cape Canaveral on March 26. scheduled to launch onboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket on April 29. c

40 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST PROPULSION Hydrogen In, Carbon Out > EUROPEAN REPORT SEES ROLE FOR CLEAN HYDROGEN IN AVIATION > SIGNIFICANT BARRIERS REMAIN

Graham Warwick Washington H2Fly’s four-seat Hy4 is planned to y using hydrogen fuel cells in 2020 under Europe’s Mahepa project. Periodically, hy- While it promises benefi ts, hydrogen 33 kWh/kg, three times that of kero- drogen rises to the propulsion presents signifi cant chal- sene and more than 100 times that of surface as a way to lenges, the report says, but with other the best lithium-ion batteries. reduce aviation emis- transportation and industrial sectors But liquid hydrogen has a volumetric sions only to sink making increasing use of the technolo- energy density less than a quarter that under the weight of gy for power trains and energy storage, of kerosene and must be stored at cryo- ONE IN A SERIES challenges in using aerospace could benefi t from a rapidly genic temperatures in large and heavy the high-energy, but low-density, fuel growing supply chain. insulated tanks. Aircraft-grade storage in aircraft. Interest in hydrogen is en- Roland Berger identifi es sustainabil- systems could reduce the stored hydro- joying a resurgence, though, as part of ity options for aviation that range from gen’s energy density to 10-21 kWh/kg, wider e orts to combat climate change. “net-zero” to “true zero” emissions. Roland Berger says, adding: “Never- That renewed interest is strongest in Carbon offsetting and sustainable theless, hydrogen remains superior Europe, where on March 10 the Euro- aviation fuels o er a path to net-zero to conventional fuel in terms of power pean Commission announced plans to carbon emissions, while hybrid-electric density by unit weight.” launch a Clean Hydrogen Alliance as aircraft could reduce gross emissions Of the five barriers identified by the centerpiece of a new strategy to ac- by 10-50%. the report, one is the need to redesign celerate both the decarbonization and Combustion of hydrogen instead of aircraft to provide additional volume digitalization of the region’s industries. kerosene in jet engines could reduce to accommodate cryogenic hydrogen The alliance is intended to bring in- gross carbon emissions by aircraft to tanks. Roland Berger acknowledges vestors together with governmental, zero but would still produce nitrogen this as the main drawback but argues institutional and industrial partners to oxides (NOx), which are indirect green- liquid hydrogen still o ers advantages foster the use of clean hydrogen both house gases. Electric propulsion using over battery storage in energy density. as an energy carrier and directly to hydrogen fuel cells could reduce gross Because of hydrogen’s low volu- reduce emissions from industrial pro- emissions to zero, including NOx. metric density, “the airplane becomes cesses such as steel production. Hydrogen propulsion—either by larger, heavier, with more drag so it While aviation was not specifi cally combustion or fuel cell—would emit needs more energy; so you could be called out at the high-level launch of water vapor, which is also a greenhouse increasing your carbon footprint, not Europe’s new industrial strategy, the gas. Water vapor additionally can create dropping it,” says Alan Epstein, Mas- promise of widely available clean hydro- contrails and cirrus clouds, which can sachusetts Institute of Technology gen is turning the heat up under the re- contribute to climate change through professor emeritus and former Pratt surgent interest in its use as a low-emis- radiative forcing. But “its harmful ef- & Whitney vice president of research sion renewable fuel for aviation. fects can be minimized through careful and environment. Alongside sustainable fuels and operation,” the report says. “Because of the low density, the val- electric propulsion, hydrogen has a Roland Berger identifies five key ue of hydrogen is very dependent on role in helping aviation address emis- barriers to hydrogen in aviation, none aircraft speed. So it might make sense sions challenges, and industry should of which will surprise aircraft and for a surveillance application where the allocate resources to exploring its po- engine developers. Hydrogen stores aircraft just loiters, such as Boeing’s tential, concludes a report by Europe- a lot of energy but in a large volume. Phantom Eye, or slow general-aviation an consultancy Roland Berger. It has a gravimetric energy density of aircraft, but it gets much harder as the

4 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST PROPULSION

Hydrogen In, speed goes up,” he says. “Indeed, it’s un- jet fuel at about $0.05/kWh, but green The European-funded Mahepa re- clear that the airplane design will even hydrogen produced by electrolysis search project is developing a modular be close at airliner Mach numbers.” is about three times as expensive, at hybrid-electric propulsion architecture Carbon Out “You need 4-5 times the volume to $0.14/kWh. Energy projects are under and will fly two four-seat test aircraft store the same amount of energy as jet development that promise green hy- this year: one with a combustion engine > EUROPEAN REPORT SEES ROLE FOR fuel. This means there is insufficient drogen costs as low as $0.07/kWh, the and batteries and one with fuel cells. CLEAN HYDROGEN IN AVIATION room to store the hydrogen in the report notes. Slovenia’s Pipistrel is studying scaling wing, which increases the bending mo- Safety is not identified as a barri- up the technology to a 19-seater. > SIGNIFICANT BARRIERS REMAIN ment on the wing root and results in a er by the report, despite hydrogen’s Looking further ahead, NASA heavier wing structure,” acknowledges Hindenburg reputation, an omission has funded the Center for Cryogenic Robert Thomson, Roland Berger part- noted by Epstein. “I have yet to see an High-Efficiency Electrical Technolo- ner and one of the report’s authors. airliner design with liquid hydrogen in gies for Aircraft (Cheeta) at the Uni- “Thus our view is [that] hydrogen is which the passengers have any chance versity of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign unlikely to be used for long-range air- of survival in an accident, both from to study a fully electric single-aisle craft where drag and weight are criti- contact with the liquid cryogen and the airliner using hydrogen fuel cells and cal and cruising speed important,” he fact that the wide flammability range of superconducting electrical systems. says. “Hydrogen’s most likely use will hydrogen makes it very easy to ignite “Our program was initiated as a way be in the narrowbody market, where compared to Jet A,” he says. to study far-future aviation technolo- aircraft don’t spend that long at cruise, “Airbus studied safety as part of its gies that have a much longer develop- H3FLY so a slightly lower speed doesn’t have research into the Cryoplane around 20 mental timescale associated with them, that much effect on trip duration, and years ago and stated it is a ‘psycholog- compared to nearer-term turbine/bat- drag is also less important.” ical problem primarily,’ pointing out tery hybrid-electric configurations, for Graham Warwick Washington H2Fly’s four-seat Hy4 is planned to y using hydrogen fuel cells in 2020 under Europe’s Mahepa project. A second barrier Roland Berger that hydrogen doesn’t form a carpet example,” says Phillip Ansell, associate identified is the need to redesign the of fire and the proceeds of combustion professor at the university’s Grainger Periodically, hy- While it promises beneﬁ ts, hydrogen 33 kWh/kg, three times that of kero- engine to burn hydrogen or the aircraft are not toxic,” Thomson responds. “But College of Engineering. drogen rises to the propulsion presents signiﬁ cant chal- sene and more than 100 times that of to take advantage of distributed pro- no one has certified a hydrogen aircraft “We are seeing substantial promise surface as a way to lenges, the report says, but with other the best lithium-ion batteries. pulsion architectures enabled by but yet, and the means to do so is not yet in the idea of hydrogen-electric air- reduce aviation emis- transportation and industrial sectors But liquid hydrogen has a volumetric not unique to fuel-cell power trains. established,” he acknowledges. craft and have seen potential ways to

sions only to sink making increasing use of the technolo- energy density less than a quarter that The report cites two combustion con- UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS URBANA-CHAMPAIGN under the weight of gy for power trains and energy storage, of kerosene and must be stored at cryo- cepts that reduce NOx production from ONE IN A SERIES challenges in using aerospace could benefi t from a rapidly genic temperatures in large and heavy burning hydrogen to levels at or below the high-energy, but low-density, fuel growing supply chain. insulated tanks. Aircraft-grade storage kerosene: lean direct injection and the in aircraft. Interest in hydrogen is en- Roland Berger identifi es sustainabil- systems could reduce the stored hydro- micromix combustor. joying a resurgence, though, as part of ity options for aviation that range from gen’s energy density to 10-21 kWh/kg, The remaining three barriers iden- wider e orts to combat climate change. “net-zero” to “true zero” emissions. Roland Berger says, adding: “Never- tified by the report relate to the hydro- That renewed interest is strongest in Carbon offsetting and sustainable theless, hydrogen remains superior gen supply chain: sustainable produc- Europe, where on March 10 the Euro- aviation fuels o er a path to net-zero to conventional fuel in terms of power tion, infrastructure and cost. Of the pean Commission announced plans to carbon emissions, while hybrid-electric density by unit weight.” 70 million tons of hydrogen produced launch a Clean Hydrogen Alliance as aircraft could reduce gross emissions Of the five barriers identified by today, the report says, only 1 million the centerpiece of a new strategy to ac- by 10-50%. the report, one is the need to redesign tons are “green” hydrogen produced The NASA-funded Cheeta center celerate both the decarbonization and Combustion of hydrogen instead of aircraft to provide additional volume sustainably via electrolysis using re- is studying technology for a digitalization of the region’s industries. kerosene in jet engines could reduce to accommodate cryogenic hydrogen newable energy. But this is changing full-size fuel-cell-powered airliner. The alliance is intended to bring in- gross carbon emissions by aircraft to tanks. Roland Berger acknowledges as the growth in renewable electricity vestors together with governmental, zero but would still produce nitrogen this as the main drawback but argues drives the use of hydrogen for energy institutional and industrial partners to oxides (NOx), which are indirect green- liquid hydrogen still o ers advantages storage. As its name suggests, Europe’s foster the use of clean hydrogen both house gases. Electric propulsion using over battery storage in energy density. Clean Hydrogen Alliance can be ex- Roland Berger identifies several address some fundamental challenges as an energy carrier and directly to hydrogen fuel cells could reduce gross Because of hydrogen’s low volu- pected to accelerate that trend. hydrogen aircraft projects. These in- associated with use of hydrogen, but reduce emissions from industrial pro- emissions to zero, including NOx. metric density, “the airplane becomes Infrastructure barriers include hy- clude startups Alaka’i, developing the many solutions will require large in- cesses such as steel production. Hydrogen propulsion—either by larger, heavier, with more drag so it drogen delivery to airports. Existing Skai electric vertical-takeoff-and-land- vestments—for example infrastruc- While aviation was not specifi cally combustion or fuel cell—would emit needs more energy; so you could be natural gas networks could be used to ing (eVTOL) air taxi, and ZeroAvia, ture—or substantial R&D efforts to called out at the high-level launch of water vapor, which is also a greenhouse increasing your carbon footprint, not transport gaseous hydrogen, the report which with UK government support complete,” he says. Europe’s new industrial strategy, the gas. Water vapor additionally can create dropping it,” says Alan Epstein, Mas- notes, but would require significant is developing a power train for 10-20- “There is a precedent for hydro - promise of widely available clean hydro- contrails and cirrus clouds, which can sachusetts Institute of Technology investment. And the hydrogen would seat aircraft. Both are using hydrogen gen-powered aircraft, either with gen is turning the heat up under the re- contribute to climate change through professor emeritus and former Pratt have to be liquefied at the airport. This fuel cells. internal combustion engines or fuel surgent interest in its use as a low-emis- radiative forcing. But “its harmful ef- & Whitney vice president of research would require infrastructure, and hy- Singapore’s HES Energy Systems cells, so we know the idea is viable,” sion renewable fuel for aviation. fects can be minimized through careful and environment. drogen liquefaction is energy-intensive has unveiled plans for a four-passen- Ansell says. “The bigger question is Alongside sustainable fuels and operation,” the report says. “Because of the low density, the val- and therefore costly. ger regional aircraft, the Element One, how to scale previous demonstra- electric propulsion, hydrogen has a Roland Berger identifies five key ue of hydrogen is very dependent on Cost is the final barrier identified by while Germany’s APUS is developing tions up to single-aisle platforms, role in helping aviation address emis- barriers to hydrogen in aviation, none aircraft speed. So it might make sense Roland Berger, which notes hydrogen a four-passenger light aircraft, the i-2. determine if the aircraft concept sions challenges, and industry should of which will surprise aircraft and for a surveillance application where the is more expensive than kerosene on a They also are using fuel cells. Toyota can be cost-competitive and devise allocate resources to exploring its po- engine developers. Hydrogen stores aircraft just loiters, such as Boeing’s kilowatt-hour basis. “Gray” hydrogen is flight-testing a fuel-cell unmanned a way to be able to sustain energy tential, concludes a report by Europe- a lot of energy but in a large volume. Phantom Eye, or slow general-aviation produced by steam methane reform- eVTOL at Mojave Air and Space Port production and distribution across an consultancy Roland Berger. It has a gravimetric energy density of aircraft, but it gets much harder as the ing or coal gasification is on par with in California. entire fleets of aircraft.” c

4 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 43 HYPERSONICS Hyper Cycle

HYPERSPACE PROPULSION

> NAVAL RESEARCH LABORATORY TO TEST HYSCRAM SCRAMJET ELEMENT TO MACH 5 > CONCEPT COMBINES MHD, RAM/SCRAMJET Guy Norris Los Angeles AND HYBRID GAS-ELECTRIC TURBINE

novel hybrid hypersonic propulsion system combining The core is circumferentially superconducting electrical power, a gas turbine, ram/ enclosed by a cluster of nine dual- scramjet and magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) technol- mode ramjet/scramjets arranged A ogy is being developed by California-based startup in load-carrying segmented ducts. HyperSpace Propulsion. The turbine-based combined-cycle The company’s commercial de - mented ducts. Air is admitted to the (TBCC) engine is designed to power signs have most recently focused on ram/scramjets by a translating inlet a hypersonic vehicle from a standing a Mach 6.65 airliner concept sized spike or cone. This resembles the start to speeds of Mach 8-plus and for 200 passengers and a range of design used in the Mach 3.3-capable could be adapted to commercial and 10,600 nm. Provisionally targeted at Lockheed SR-71, which moved fore military applications ranging from entry into service in the early 2030s, and aft depending on flight condi - high-speed aircraft to missiles as well the design is configured with four tion. When the electrically actuated as, potentially, space launch systems, 190,000-lb.-thrust commercial-deriv- spike is fully forward, the airflow is the developer says. The baseline ative Hyscram hybrid turbofan ram/ directed to the ramjet/scramjets, and concept is an outgrowth of a hybrid scramjet MHD engines, which share when retracted the bulk of the flow is electric-gas turbine configuration some of the same fundamental design diverted into the power-generation unveiled in the 2010s by HyperSpace features of the military TBCC concept. turbine core. The “three engine cy- sister company HyperMach for a pro- The core of the Hyscram (hyperson- cles—turbine core, ram/scramjet and posed Mach 5 business jet dubbed ic hybrid superconducting combustion MHD thrust” are therefore never fully HyperStar. ram accelerated magnetohydrody- disconnected, Lugg says. Although development of the initial namic) engine is a turbofan configured HyperSpace claims several advan- hybrid civil engine concept has taken with a magnetically levitated fan and tages for the superconducting electric longer than hoped, HyperSpace says compressor and turbine stages, along hybrid TBCC versus a conventional the recent increase in interest in with a series of axially mounted super- turbine-based design because the tur- hypersonic technologies by the U.S. conducting power generators. As each bine core is completely integrated and Defense Department has injected rotating stage is held in place with ac- embedded inside the ramjet/scramjet fresh impetus into the new TBCC de- tive permanent-magnet air bearings, engines with a common central flow rivative version. “We have the support the design requires no mechanical path. The design has the theoretical and the focus now for our efforts,” says support shaft, oil system or gearing. capability of operating to a much HyperSpace CEO Richard Lugg. “If A plasma combustor generates an higher takeover Mach number before we are successful with an electric-hy- ionized flow that, along with exhaust transitioning from turbine to ram/ brid scramjet, we have a product gas, is accelerated by a four-ring MHD scramjet mode. that could become a naval weapons electromagnetic augmenter device at The company estimates the turbine program, and at the same time we the back of the engine. will run up to Mach 5-6 before transi- can maintain our trajectory toward a Circumferentially enclosing the tioning to scramjet power, which will commercial hypersonic program with core is an array of nine dual-mode be used to operate to Mach 8-plus. the full TBCC Hyscram engine.” ramjet/scramjets arranged in seg- “Our turbine is operable at very high

44 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST HYPERSONICS

Mach numbers because it is shaft- the flow through the engine propa- Initial testing of a single represen- less-electric, and all the loads of the gates upstream and spills out of the in- tative hybrid ramjet/scramjet duct will rotating machinery are carried in let. “So we are attempting to use MHD occur under a Cooperative Research Hyper Cycle the exoskeleton of the engine struc- to electrically power combustion and and Development Agreement with ture,” Lugg says. “We are operating at stabilize it in all flight conditions in the the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory rpms and loads that were previously ram/scramjet via a strut-jet ignition (NRL). Testing will be conducted in impossible until we came along with system across Mach 5-8,” he adds. the NRL Hypersonic Wind Tunnel, this concept.” The hollow core of the engine is scheduled to become operational this The outer casing for the turbine en- used to transfer electrical power fall. The test program is divided into gine also forms the inner casing of the generated by the turbine to the com- three main phases, with the initial double-walled ram/scramjet ducting. pressor and fan. “The beauty is you study focused on wind-tunnel testing The space between the double walls can turn this off or on like a switch of a subscale hybrid ramjet/scram- HYPERSPACE PROPULSION is used to hold the JP7/8 subsystem on the wall,” Lugg says. “Say, if you jet duct, followed by demonstrations for fueling and cooling as well as to don’t need the first three stages of the of the cycle in a flight-test vehicle in provide space for the electromagnetic compressor as much because you are “2023,” Lugg says. Follow-on phases, if power systems and controls. The com- transitioning to supersonic compres- sanctioned, “would test more integrat- pany says the common airflow path through > NAVAL RESEARCH LABORATORY TO TEST the center of the pow- A HYSCRAM SCRAMJET ELEMENT TO MACH 5 erplant eliminates the need for completely Four-Ring > CONCEPT COMBINES MHD, RAM/SCRAMJET separate turbine and Inlet/Compression Ramjet/Scramjet Ramjet/Scramjet Isolator Magnetohydrodynamic AND HYBRID GAS-ELECTRIC TURBINE ramjet/scramjet en- System Combustor Nozzle Guy Norris Los Angeles Augmenter gines. “Ours is all one novel hybrid hypersonic propulsion system combining The core is circumferentially mass flow, so we are HYPERSPACE PROPULSION enclosed by a cluster of nine dual- saving volume, weight superconducting electrical power, a gas turbine, ram/ and complexity. Plus, mode ramjet/scramjets arranged scramjet and magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) technol- we don’t have the is- ogy is being developed by California-based startup in load-carrying segmented ducts. sue of cocooning a hot A turbine,” he adds. HyperSpace Propulsion. The engine is con- The turbine-based combined-cycle The company’s commercial de - mented ducts. Air is admitted to the figured with a three- (TBCC) engine is designed to power signs have most recently focused on ram/scramjets by a translating inlet stage fan, a 13-stage a hypersonic vehicle from a standing a Mach 6.65 airliner concept sized spike or cone. This resembles the compressor (all elec- start to speeds of Mach 8-plus and for 200 passengers and a range of design used in the Mach 3.3-capable trically driven), and could be adapted to commercial and 10,600 nm. Provisionally targeted at Lockheed SR-71, which moved fore a low-speed, subson- military applications ranging from entry into service in the early 2030s, and aft depending on flight condi - ic combustor. Flow high-speed aircraft to missiles as well the design is configured with four tion. When the electrically actuated exits the combustor Moving Hollow Three-Stage Bypass 13-Stage Core Three-Stage Core as, potentially, space launch systems, 190,000-lb.-thrust commercial-deriv- spike is fully forward, the airflow is through a three-stage Spike Shaftless Superconducting Duct Superconducting Combustor Superconducting Nozzle Turbine Core Fan Compressor Power Turbine the developer says. The baseline ative Hyscram hybrid turbofan ram/ directed to the ramjet/scramjets, and power turbine that concept is an outgrowth of a hybrid scramjet MHD engines, which share when retracted the bulk of the flow is generates both thrust electric-gas turbine configuration some of the same fundamental design diverted into the power-generation and electricity. “We want to be able to sion in ramjet mode, then you can turn A translating spike is designed to unveiled in the 2010s by HyperSpace features of the military TBCC concept. turbine core. The “three engine cy- generate a large amount of electricity them off. At around Mach 5.5, when we control inlet air flow to the core sister company HyperMach for a pro- The core of the Hyscram (hyperson- cles—turbine core, ram/scramjet and across the entire flight envelope, so transition to scramjet mode and you turbine and divert air to the ramjet/ posed Mach 5 business jet dubbed ic hybrid superconducting combustion MHD thrust” are therefore never fully we keep the turbine core operating need hardly any mechanical compres- HyperStar. ram accelerated magnetohydrody- disconnected, Lugg says. above Mach 5 to produce electricity, sion, then we may need only three or scramjet for hypersonic flight. Although development of the initial namic) engine is a turbofan configured HyperSpace claims several advan- and above Mach 6 it is producing less so high-pressure compressor stages hybrid civil engine concept has taken with a magnetically levitated fan and tages for the superconducting electric thrust and more electricity due to the and shut the others off electrically.” ed versions and a full engine build of longer than hoped, HyperSpace says compressor and turbine stages, along hybrid TBCC versus a conventional ramjet/scramjet engines taking over,” In a typical application, the tur- this highly innovative TBCC Hyscram the recent increase in interest in with a series of axially mounted super- turbine-based design because the tur- Lugg says. bine core would be started using engine,” he adds. hypersonic technologies by the U.S. conducting power generators. As each bine core is completely integrated and “We use electrical power to run ground-supplied electrical power. The new research test facility, locat- Defense Department has injected rotating stage is held in place with ac- embedded inside the ramjet/scramjet the MHD, and in our scenario, we are “You have electrical input to start ed at the NRL’s High-Speed Aerody- fresh impetus into the new TBCC de- tive permanent-magnet air bearings, engines with a common central flow using it to augment thrust as well as the induction motor, and at the same namics Laboratory at the Naval Center rivative version. “We have the support the design requires no mechanical path. The design has the theoretical manage shockwaves,” he says. The time, the turbine blisks will rotate so for Space Technology in Washington, and the focus now for our efforts,” says support shaft, oil system or gearing. capability of operating to a much MHD is also designed to provide a that will begin [ingesting and] com- is a long-duration aerodynamics test HyperSpace CEO Richard Lugg. “If A plasma combustor generates an higher takeover Mach number before constant ignition source for the plas- pressing air and achieving combustion site capable of real-time altitude and we are successful with an electric-hy- ionized flow that, along with exhaust transitioning from turbine to ram/ ma combustor in the ram/scramjet. for start-up,” Lugg says. “Once you speed variation. The facility, which re- brid scramjet, we have a product gas, is accelerated by a four-ring MHD scramjet mode. “With the engine-vehicle design have start-up, you have electric pow- lies on a pressurized air source and a that could become a naval weapons electromagnetic augmenter device at The company estimates the turbine planned to be highly maneuverable, er for thrust to power the fan for low- convergent-divergent nozzle to achieve program, and at the same time we the back of the engine. will run up to Mach 5-6 before transi- there is a high chance of incurring an speed operation and taxiing to the run- test points, is designed to recreate can maintain our trajectory toward a Circumferentially enclosing the tioning to scramjet power, which will ‘unstart,’ ” Lugg says. An unstart is an way. At takeoff, you will be at 90-100% flight conditions from sea level to alti- commercial hypersonic program with core is an array of nine dual-mode be used to operate to Mach 8-plus. instability that occurs when a strong power and then running on turbine tudes over 30 km (19 mi.), and speeds the full TBCC Hyscram engine.” ramjet/scramjets arranged in seg- “Our turbine is operable at very high shock initiated from a disturbance in core power and burning jet fuel.” from Mach 1.3 to more than Mach 6. c

44 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 45 HYPERSONICS Power Progress

> TURBINE-BASED COMBINED-CYCLE TURBOJET- RAMJET COMBO TESTED TO MACH 5

> REDUCED SCALE AND OFF-THE-SHELF HARDWARE

CUT TEST COSTS EXPONENTIALLY HERMEUS CONCEPT

Guy Norris Los Angeles tlanta-based hypersonic air- Atlanta, and high-speed testing com- Hermeus is targeting a Mach 5 craft developer Hermeus has pleted at Purdue University,” says transport for 20 passengers and A completed scaled static and Hermeus cofounder and CEO AJ a range of 4,000 nm. wind-tunnel tests of a turbine-based Piplica. The turbine-based combined- combined-cycle engine prototype up cycle (TBCC) engine consists of an off- a powerplant that can propel a reus- to Mach 5 and is working on near- the-shelf turbojet, an in-house-devel- able aircraft from takeoff to Mach 5 term plans to test transition between oped precooler and a ramjet. The tur- and back, using a combination of an engine modes. bojet is designed to operate from a off-the-shelf turbine engine and a du- The company is focusing on propul- standing start to Mach 3.3, while the al-mode ramjet-scramjet. sion development as the first priority ramjet operates over the transition “It is super-critical to reduce as in its ambitious initiative to develop range from Mach 2.8 to above Mach 3 many of the risks as possible, and a high-speed transport for entry into and then onward up to Mach 5. there are good test facilities around the country, many of them at univer- sities at this scale at least, that allow us to do this at much lower cost than the probably tens or hundreds of mil-

HERMEUS PHOTOS lions of dollars if you’re doing it at full scale. Of course, you’re not solv- ing everything, but you’re starting to knock down the biggest challenges. You have to start somewhere,” Pipli- ca says, noting that extensive use of additive manufacturing has also con- tributed to savings in cost and time. Tests of the engine, which incorporates a common inlet and nozzle for the two flow paths, have so far focused on “operability of individual operating modes and demonstrat- ing overlap between them,” he adds. “Mode transition is on the near-term A scaled version of the Hermeus combined-cycle engine has run to Mach 5-like road map though.” For the moment, Hermeus declines conditions in direct connect tests. to provide details of the precooler sys- service by the end of this decade. Pro- “We have moved very quickly and tem or the off-the-shelf turbojet. Piplica visionally sized to carry around 20 efficiently to buy down technical risk,” says, however, that “the engine is passengers over transatlantic ranges Piplica says. The company has gone pretty small and nothing we’d put in at speeds of up to Mach 5, the vehicle from “nothing to a tested engine at a flight vehicle, but it is bigger than a is designed around existing and near- Mach 5 in nine months for almost two JetCat [a high-end hobby turbine pro- term airframe, materials, systems orders of magnitude less cost than vider] and smaller than a Williams.” and propulsion technologies. AFRE,” he says, referring to DARPA’s Hermeus has “built everything else,” “Sea-level static testing has been Advanced Full-Range Engine (AFRE) he adds. “In June, we had an open completed at our in-house facility in program. AFRE aims to demonstrate field and grass at DeKalb-Peachtree

46 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST HYPERSONICS

Airport in [Chamblee,] Georgia. best. The exact engineer that we Power Progress Six months later, we had a test need doesn’t exist because there facility in a modified shipping haven’t been too many people container and an engine test working on these types of sys- campaign completed with over tems in the past; so we have to 100 tests. It was a busy second pull people from different parts half of last year.” of the industry. That’s the big Tests at Purdue’s Zucrow thing,” he says. Labs in West Lafayette, Indi- ana, and in Georgia have eval- Exhaust from the turbojet and TURBINE-BASED COMBINED-CYCLE TURBOJET- > uated the TBCC with a direct ramjet passes through the RAMJET COMBO TESTED TO MACH 5 connect inlet. “The hardest same integrated nozzle. part of the whole thing is really > REDUCED SCALE AND OFF-THE-SHELF HARDWARE the inlet, and we haven’t bitten So far this year, the company

CUT TEST COSTS EXPONENTIALLY HERMEUS CONCEPT off that part yet,” Piplica says. has put out calls to recruit an “We will be getting into inlet aerodynamics engineer—re- testing at a different facility sponsible for aerodynamic and later this year.” Beyond this, system-level design, analysis, Guy Norris Los Angeles Hermeus plans to scale to a integration and testing—and Mach 5 flight vehicle “over the an airframe mechanical engi- tlanta-based hypersonic air- Atlanta, and high-speed testing com- Hermeus is targeting a Mach 5 next few years,” he adds. neer for the design, analysis, craft developer Hermeus has pleted at Purdue University,” says transport for 20 passengers and In the near term, the compa- manufacture, test and certifica- A completed scaled static and Hermeus cofounder and CEO AJ a range of 4,000 nm. ny’s other key challenge is grow- tion of the airframe assemblies. wind-tunnel tests of a turbine-based Piplica. The turbine-based combined- ing the development team. “We Hermeus seeks to fill other posi- combined-cycle engine prototype up cycle (TBCC) engine consists of an off- a powerplant that can propel a reus- were at eight people in January, tions ranging from lead avionics to Mach 5 and is working on near- the-shelf turbojet, an in-house-devel- able aircraft from takeoff to Mach 5 and we have to get up to 25 or 30 engineer to flight software en- term plans to test transition between oped precooler and a ramjet. The tur- and back, using a combination of an by the end of the year. That’s an gineer and mechanical engineer engine modes. bojet is designed to operate from a off-the-shelf turbine engine and a du- extra 20 hires of really just the for propulsion. c The company is focusing on propul- standing start to Mach 3.3, while the al-mode ramjet-scramjet. sion development as the first priority ramjet operates over the transition “It is super-critical to reduce as in its ambitious initiative to develop range from Mach 2.8 to above Mach 3 many of the risks as possible, and a high-speed transport for entry into and then onward up to Mach 5. there are good test facilities around the country, many of them at univer- sities at this scale at least, that allow us to do this at much lower cost than the probably tens or hundreds of mil-

HERMEUS PHOTOS lions of dollars if you’re doing it at full scale. Of course, you’re not solv- ing everything, but you’re starting to knock down the biggest challenges. Aircraft Insight to You have to start somewhere,” Pipli- ca says, noting that extensive use of additive manufacturing has also con- Grow Your Business tributed to savings in cost and time. Tests of the engine, which incorporates a common inlet and nozzle for the two flow paths, have so far With a database of over 220,000 aircraft, including more than focused on “operability of individual 840 aircraft and 170 engine types, only Fleet Discovery provides: operating modes and demonstrat- ing overlap between them,” he adds. ➤ Complete aircraft history, seating & utilization histories, and “Mode transition is on the near-term current technical specifi cations for aircraft at the serial number level A scaled version of the Hermeus combined-cycle engine has run to Mach 5-like road map though.” For the moment, Hermeus declines conditions in direct connect tests. ➤ Ad hoc reports for real-time answers to provide details of the precooler sys- ➤ Month-over-month trend analysis service by the end of this decade. Pro- “We have moved very quickly and tem or the off-the-shelf turbojet. Piplica Go to aviationweek.com/fd visionally sized to carry around 20 efficiently to buy down technical risk,” says, however, that “the engine is passengers over transatlantic ranges Piplica says. The company has gone pretty small and nothing we’d put in Learn more or call Anne McMahon at + 1 (646) 291 6353 or at speeds of up to Mach 5, the vehicle from “nothing to a tested engine at a flight vehicle, but it is bigger than a Thom Clayton +44 (0) 20 7017 6106 Find out how Fleet Discovery simplifi es tracking aircraft lifecycles, is designed around existing and near- Mach 5 in nine months for almost two JetCat [a high-end hobby turbine pro- identifying new business opportunities, and will assist you to term airframe, materials, systems orders of magnitude less cost than vider] and smaller than a Williams.” and propulsion technologies. AFRE,” he says, referring to DARPA’s Hermeus has “built everything else,” enhance your strategic planning. “Sea-level static testing has been Advanced Full-Range Engine (AFRE) he adds. “In June, we had an open completed at our in-house facility in program. AFRE aims to demonstrate field and grass at DeKalb-Peachtree

46 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 47 AVIONICS

that make the aircraft increasingly Fly by Wire for All capable over time.” FlightOS has been architected by Skyryse Chief Technology Officer > HIGH-RELIABILITY FBW DESIGNED TO BE AIRCRAFT-AGNOSTIC Gonzalo Rey, who was previously CTO at Moog, where he was involved in the > R44 LIGHT HELICOPTER BEING USED FOR DEVELOPMENT certification of fly-by-wire systems on multiple aircraft, Groden says. “The Graham Warwick Washington backbone is a DAL A system that can be STC-ed into an existing aircraft ly by wire has improved the ufacturing of a fly-by-wire system,” he and, on the back of that, software up- safety and capability of military says. “But if your system is designed dates will make it increasingly auto- F and commercial aircraft but has to be aircraft-agnostic across platform mated to make the aircraft safer and yet to penetrate general aviation be- types, and you build that architecture more capable.” cause of its cost and complexity. Now a so it truly can be put into all GA air- Skyryse has been flight-testing U.S. startup is targeting the safety re- craft around the world—retrofit and FlightOS since January 2017. “We’ve cord of light aircraft and helicopters by future vehicles—now you’ve achieved architected the system to be entirely developing a high-reliability fly-by-wire economies of scale.” aircraft agnostic across anything with system for retrofit across a wide range of aircraft to provide simplified flight control with full envelope protection. Skyryse has already installed its FlightOS automation system on three different types of helicopter, including the Robinson R44, and anticipates FAA supplemental type certification (STC) of its first retrofit in “months,” CEO Mark Groden says. Skyryse is using the Robinson R44 light helicopter as the development platform for its flight automation system. FlightOS is based on a triple-redundant fly-by-wire (FBW) architecture engineered to the same DAL A design assurance level as commercial aircraft systems, with a probability of catastrophic failure of 10-9/hr. This provides envelope protection, auto- mates emergency management and integrates hazard avoidance. SKYRISE “What we have built is an abili- FlightOS uses triple-redundant, a pilot. We are already working on the ty to abstract a lot of the dynamic jam-proof electromechanical actua- R44, which arguably is the hardest flight control so as to allow the pilot tors that can replace an aircraft’s me- platform to do in general aviation be- to be more focused on mission de - chanical flight controls or piggyback cause you don’t have much volume or cision-making,” Groden says. “This on them to enable mechanical linkages available power. And by the way, it’s technology is capable of reducing the to be retained as a backup. Triplex super unstable because it’s a light he- cognitive load on pilots and helping localization sensors are included, and licopter,” he says. unlock their ability to think many FlightOS can interface with terrain The hardware is essentially identi- steps ahead of the aircraft.” maps and sense-and-avoid systems cal, whatever the application. “So we Skyryse’s goal is to bring FBW to understand its environment and can integrate into fixed-wing aircraft to general aviation (GA) to improve detect dynamically moving obstacles. or bigger rotorcraft. And those are safety by developing a system that is “The software is something that is much easier platforms for us to in- agnostic to the aircraft type on which pretty unique to us. What we are mak- tegrate into because there is power, it is installed, thus reducing cost by ing possible is the first set of aircraft weight and cooling capacity, and of increasing production volume. to be software-defined in the way Tes- course those aircraft are inherently “If you architect one of these sys- la created software-defined cars,” he more stable,” Groden says. tems for one aircraft platform, you says. “Once the system is installed in The data required to develop FBW would have a problem, because the an aircraft, we have the capability of systems for GA aircraft generally does volumes in general aviation don’t sup- accessing all of the primary flight-con- not exist, so Skyryse performs exten- port the design, engineering and man- trol functions with software updates sive system-identification flight tests

48 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIONICS that make the aircraft increasingly to characterize the vehicle’s flight en- Ultimately, Skyryse wants to make into the technology,” Groden adds. Fly by Wire for All capable over time.” velope and control responses. “That it easier to learn to fly any aircraft, “But it definitely shouldn’t be hap - FlightOS has been architected by process we have done three times fixed- or rotary-wing. “It’s our vision pening through the World War II-like Skyryse Chief Technology Officer already, with three different helicop- that it will be as easy to get into any controls that exist in every aircraft > HIGH-RELIABILITY FBW DESIGNED TO BE AIRCRAFT-AGNOSTIC Gonzalo Rey, who was previously CTO ters,” he says. “And helicopters are aircraft as it is in today’s automo - right now.” at Moog, where he was involved in the much more difficult to characterize biles, where your user interfaces Skyryse has a “clear path” to certifi- > R44 LIGHT HELICOPTER BEING USED FOR DEVELOPMENT certification of fly-by-wire systems on than fixed-wing.” are identical—steering wheel, gas cation defined with the FAA but is not multiple aircraft, Groden says. “The Skyryse’s strategy to improve safe- pedal, brake pedal. It doesn’t matter disclosing a specific timeline. “What Graham Warwick Washington backbone is a DAL A system that can ty is to automate and simplify flight what make or model car; whenever I can say is Gonzalo [Rey] has been be STC-ed into an existing aircraft operations. “We know that in general you get into the vehicle, in a matter through this about a dozen times on ly by wire has improved the ufacturing of a fly-by-wire system,” he and, on the back of that, software up- aviation today, the level of safety is not of seconds you’re driving out of the other projects during his tenure at safety and capability of military says. “But if your system is designed dates will make it increasingly auto- where it needs to be. Even for the best parking lot,” Groden says. Moog, so we are confident in our pro- F and commercial aircraft but has to be aircraft-agnostic across platform mated to make the aircraft safer and pilots with thousands of hours flying a The training framework already cess with the FAA,” he says. yet to penetrate general aviation be- types, and you build that architecture more capable.” helicopter, it’s a lot to handle,” Groden exists to gain a private pilot’s license Although Skyryse has focused on cause of its cost and complexity. Now a so it truly can be put into all GA air- Skyryse has been flight-testing says. “We want to take the 6,000-hr. in 40 hr., or a sport pilot’s license in the light-utility R44 as the platform U.S. startup is targeting the safety re- craft around the world—retrofit and FlightOS since January 2017. “We’ve or 8,000-hr. pilot and make them as 20 hr., but “it’s just not supporting the for development, its initial target mar- cord of light aircraft and helicopters by future vehicles—now you’ve achieved architected the system to be entirely good as they’ve ever been on their proficiency of those highly perishable ket for FlightOS retrofits will be high- developing a high-reliability fly-by-wire economies of scale.” aircraft agnostic across anything with best day. And we want to take pilots skills,” he says. “So we can empower er-value special mission helicopters. system for retrofit across a wide range with a couple of hundred hours and those people [who] already know how “We’re engineering the system to be of aircraft to provide simplified flight elevate them to the same level, so it to fly to fly a heck of a lot safer and in capable of operating the hardest ve- control with full envelope protection. is like a rising tide.” flying conditions that they otherwise hicle type, which is the light helicop- Skyryse has already installed its To achieve this goal, FlightOS must wouldn’t be capable of doing.” ter, while simultaneously saying, FlightOS automation system on three be highly reliable and available. “This Skyryse is still experimenting with ‘Where is the market demand the different types of helicopter, including isn’t like an autopilot, where we expect “intuitive” interfaces for FlightOS. strongest?’” Groden adds. the Robinson R44, and anticipates the aircraft to be dumped back on the “I’d like to get away from convention- He cites firefighting, search-and-res- FAA supplemental type certification pilot when it fails. It’s our intent for al flight controls because they utilize cue and offshore oil, “where missions (STC) of its first retrofit in “months,” the system to be online and in control the human body fully if you’re flying are difficult to fly and the platforms CEO Mark Groden says. and capable of handling all situations the aircraft in bare metal,” he says. are generally more expensive,” he the aircraft can encounter,” he says. “You’ve got a hand or a foot on some- says. But Skyryse’s ultimate goal is to Skyryse is using the Robinson “We know complex systems fail in thing that doesn’t enable you to grab apply FlightOS across as many cur- R44 light helicopter as the complex ways, and that is the worst a checklist or push another button or rent and future aircraft types as possi- development platform for its time to dump a system on the pilot flip a switch or change your radio fre- ble to drive volume up and cost down. flight automation system. and say, ‘It’s your bird; figure out quency. It’s very cumbersome. “Think of us as Microsoft,” he says. what’s going on, and then try to make “There’s a wide body of possibility, “We want to be the platform technol- FlightOS is based on a triple-redun- the best decision as quickly as possi- and obviously doing this in a way that ogy stack, the software that powers all dant fly-by-wire (FBW) architecture ble.’ A computer is much more capa- has the redundancy and the reliability your existing transportation today in engineered to the same DAL A design ble than the human in managing those needed is most important because this general aviation and then future trans- assurance level as commercial air- types of situations,” Groden adds. is where the human ultimately plugs portation for the air taxi market.” c craft systems, with a probability of catastrophic failure of 10-9/hr. This provides envelope protection, auto- mates emergency management and integrates hazard avoidance. SKYRISE “What we have built is an abili- FlightOS uses triple-redundant, a pilot. We are already working on the ty to abstract a lot of the dynamic jam-proof electromechanical actua- R44, which arguably is the hardest Epic Aircraft proudly uses Toray’s flight control so as to allow the pilot tors that can replace an aircraft’s me- platform to do in general aviation be- 2510 advanced composite prepreg to be more focused on mission de - chanical flight controls or piggyback cause you don’t have much volume or cision-making,” Groden says. “This on them to enable mechanical linkages available power. And by the way, it’s system for its E1000 all carbon technology is capable of reducing the to be retained as a backup. Triplex super unstable because it’s a light he- cognitive load on pilots and helping localization sensors are included, and licopter,” he says. fiber airframe. unlock their ability to think many FlightOS can interface with terrain The hardware is essentially identi- steps ahead of the aircraft.” maps and sense-and-avoid systems cal, whatever the application. “So we Skyryse’s goal is to bring FBW to understand its environment and can integrate into fixed-wing aircraft to general aviation (GA) to improve detect dynamically moving obstacles. or bigger rotorcraft. And those are safety by developing a system that is “The software is something that is much easier platforms for us to in- agnostic to the aircraft type on which pretty unique to us. What we are mak- tegrate into because there is power, it is installed, thus reducing cost by ing possible is the first set of aircraft weight and cooling capacity, and of increasing production volume. to be software-defined in the way Tes- course those aircraft are inherently Materials can change our lives “If you architect one of these sys- la created software-defined cars,” he more stable,” Groden says. tems for one aircraft platform, you says. “Once the system is installed in The data required to develop FBW [email protected] | www.toraycma.com would have a problem, because the an aircraft, we have the capability of systems for GA aircraft generally does www.epicaircraft.com volumes in general aviation don’t sup- accessing all of the primary flight-con- not exist, so Skyryse performs exten- port the design, engineering and man- trol functions with software updates sive system-identification flight tests

48 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 49 UNMANNED AVIATION

CARGO CONNECTIONS

Military interest in the potential of eVTOLs follows an evaluation of Joby’s tiltprop air taxi.

> US MC ASSESSES eVTOL POTENTIAL > MILITARY UNMANNED LOGISTICS IN UNMANNED AIR LOGISTICS USE EYED FOR URBAN AIR TAXIS

Graham Warwick Washington

Y II The pace of devel- 3,000-lb. payload over a 150-300-nm Chartis Federal took second place opment in the urban radius, from ships to small, austere with Periscope Aviation’s Mk. 4 heavy- air mobility market landing zones on shore and from dis- lift UAS. Autonodyne took third place. is adding energy tribution sites to expeditionary bases. “We’ll go on to develop prototypes and opportunity to In addition to cargo, the autonomous of the top two or three, and those prototypes will be put into the fl eet in a ONE IN A SERIES the U.S. military’s vehicles could carry passengers. long flirtation with ULS-As of various sizes would take little di erent way from what our ac- unmanned logistics. Encouraged and resupply convoys o risky roads and quisition system has done in the past,” intrigued by the vehicles it sees being free up manned helicopters for com- says Borrelli. The Marine Corps could developed, the U.S. Marine Corps has bat missions, says Carmine Borrelli, begin fi eld-user evaluation of the pro- joined the U.S. Air Force’s Agility Prime deputy of the Logistics Innovation totypes as early as fiscal 2021. This program to accelerate commercial O ce at the Marine Corps Warfi ght- could lead to a procurement program, development of electric vertical-take- ing Laboratory (MCWL). he says. The Marine Corps is aiming o -and-landing (eVTOL) aircraft. The small platform “would be sim- for early operational capability by 2023 The Air Force unveiled Agility Prime ple enough that you hit the button and and full operational capability by 2026. in February with the goal of helping plan the mission,” he says. “It takes o , Development of the medium plat- commercial manufacturers obtain lands or drops the cargo, and is able to form is being pursued with the U.S. FAA certifi cation for their vehicles by simply return to base or continue its Army through the three-year ULS-A providing access to government test re- mission. The small [ULS-A] e ort is joint capability technology demonstra- sources. The service also aims to foster funded toward midtier acquisition for tion (JCTD) funded by the O ce of the potential government markets for ear- fi ve years. That e ort is moving along. Secretary of Defense and running to ly adoption of commercial eVTOLs for We just completed a prize competition 2021. This is looking at autonomous missions such as distributed logistics, out of Naval Air Systems Command.” logistics and, potentially, limited ca- medevac, fi refi ghting, search and res- The Tactical Resupply Unmanned sualty evacuation and emergency ex- cue, disaster relief and base security. Aircraft System (TRUAS) competitive traction. The Marine Corps is aiming The Marine Corps is interested in fl yo was conducted at Yuma Proving for early operational capability with three classes of VTOL cargo aircraft, Ground, Arizona, on Jan. 27-31 to eval- the medium ULS-A by 2025 and full or Unmanned Logistics Systems-Air uate the autonomous aerial delivery operational capability by 2030. (ULS-A). The small platform would de- capability of existing small UAS. Six There is approximately $120 mil- liver 60-150 lb. over a 5-10-nm radi us for companies competed. lion in the budget beginning in fis- squad resupply. The medium platform Survice Engineering won the cal 2019 for the small platform and would carry 300-500 lb. over a 15-110- $100,000 fi rst prize with the TRV-150, to begin preparations for a medium nm radius for platoon resupply and car- a multirotor cargo UAS developed with ULS-A program once the JCTD is go fl ights between expeditionary bases. the UK’s Malloy Aeronautics. Capable complete, says Borrelli. There is also The large ULS-A, where eVTOLs of lifting up to 150 lb., the TRV-150 can approximately another $30 million could fi nd a niche, would fl y a 1,000- carry a 50-lb. payload 50 km (27 nm). from stakeholders in 2019-21 for the

AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST UNMANNED AVIATION

JCTD. Early operational capability of for a couple of years, since the Penta- pensive aviation platforms,” he says. the medium ULS-A is planned by 2023 gon’s Defense Innovation Unit funded In February, the Air Force’s Agility CARGO and full operational capability by 2030. Joby Aviation and Kitty Hawk to ex- Prime program o ce published an “in- The Marines used two unmanned plore the military utility of the vehi- novative capabilities opening” (ICO), Kaman K-Max external-lift helicopters cles. The idea was hard to sell to the establishing a contracting framework CONNECTIONS operationally in Afghanistan in 2011-13. user community, but that is changing for prototyping projects designed to Able to lift up to 6,000 lb., these air- with the growing momentum in the show whether, as their developers as- craft were retired after returning air-taxi sector, Borrelli says. sert, eVTOL vehicles can revolution- from Afghanistan. The K-Maxs have The large ULS-A requirement was ize mobility, particularly logistics. now been reactivated, and Congress originally to carry up to the 6,000-lb. Under the ICO framework, which added $18.5 million to the 2020 bud- capacity of the K-Max. But seeing will remain open until Feb. 28, 2025, the get to use them to advance autonomy the potential to use commercial ur- service plans to release a series of so- and beyond-line-of-sight capabilities ban air mobility vehicles to move not licitations for di£ erent “areas of inter- for the large ULS-A. only cargo but also people, the Marine est” (AOI). The fi rst of these—the “Air In the large category, Borrelli says, Corps has adjusted its requirement to Race to Certifi cation”—was released Military interest in the potential the Marine Corps is interested in the look at the 1,000-2,000-lb. capacity of on Feb. 25. Other AOIs could range of eVTOLs follows an evaluation potential of the eVTOL industry to most eVTOLs. from autonomy to manufacturing. of Joby’s tiltprop air taxi. provide a platform that is lower-cost “If the market is moving toward Under the fi rst AOI, the Air Force and simpler to operate. “We are heav- the 1,000-lb. cargo platform that’s o ce plans to issue contracts to pro- ily partnered with the Army on the a flying car, and many of them are duce test reports that will substanti- medium. Now the Marine Corps War- going to be out there and the cost is ate company claims for their vehicles. > US MC ASSESSES eVTOL POTENTIAL > MILITARY UNMANNED LOGISTICS fi ghting Lab will be partnering with going to come down considerably, Based on a test report, the service IN UNMANNED AIR LOGISTICS USE EYED FOR URBAN AIR TAXIS Agility Prime,” he says. The MCWL then it would be in our best inter- could proceed to the next step, poten- will provide funding and help in de- ests to figure out how best we use tially an early procurement, according Graham Warwick Washington veloping use cases for eVTOLs based that platform,” says Borrelli. “So in to Nathan Diller, Agility Prime inte- on its analysis work. the 1,000-lb. [category], we look to grated product team lead. Y II “We’ve had a lot of experience with ride on the coattails of the industry.” “They can leverage that test report The pace of devel- 3,000-lb. payload over a 150-300-nm Chartis Federal took second place use cases, [and determining] what and The Marine Corps is still looking to get military certifi cation that would opment in the urban radius, from ships to small, austere with Periscope Aviation’s Mk. 4 heavy- how we want to deliver. We look for- at heavier cargo. “We also want to allow near-term government use cases air mobility market landing zones on shore and from dis- lift UAS. Autonodyne took third place. ward to the next year in partnering get our requirement out there in the that would accelerate commercial is adding energy tribution sites to expeditionary bases. “We’ll go on to develop prototypes with Agility Prime so we can develop 2,000-3,000-lb. [range] and beyond certification, potentially providing and opportunity to In addition to cargo, the autonomous of the top two or three, and those pro- some use cases and begin to fl y some that to 6,000 lb., where we still have revenue and data that accelerates the totypes will be put into the fl eet in a things we need to move. It would be broader adoption of the technology,” ONE IN A SERIES the U.S. military’s vehicles could carry passengers. things on some of the larger plat- long flirtation with ULS-As of various sizes would take little di erent way from what our ac- forms,” he says. important to get out there and see Diller says. The Air Force is aiming for unmanned logistics. Encouraged and resupply convoys o risky roads and quisition system has done in the past,” The MCWL’s Logistics Innovation what the [eVTOL] market could an initial operational capability in 2023 intrigued by the vehicles it sees being free up manned helicopters for com- says Borrelli. The Marine Corps could O ce has been interested in eVTOLs bring without making these very ex- with a “handful-plus” of vehicles. c developed, the U.S. Marine Corps has bat missions, says Carmine Borrelli, begin fi eld-user evaluation of the pro- joined the U.S. Air Force’s Agility Prime deputy of the Logistics Innovation totypes as early as fiscal 2021. This program to accelerate commercial O ce at the Marine Corps Warfi ght- could lead to a procurement program, development of electric vertical-take- ing Laboratory (MCWL). he says. The Marine Corps is aiming o -and-landing (eVTOL) aircraft. The small platform “would be sim- for early operational capability by 2023 The Air Force unveiled Agility Prime ple enough that you hit the button and and full operational capability by 2026. Survice Engineering won the in February with the goal of helping plan the mission,” he says. “It takes o , Development of the medium plat- U.S. Navy’s TRUAS yo with the commercial manufacturers obtain lands or drops the cargo, and is able to form is being pursued with the U.S. Malloy-designed TRV-150. FAA certifi cation for their vehicles by simply return to base or continue its Army through the three-year ULS-A providing access to government test re- mission. The small [ULS-A] e ort is joint capability technology demonstra- sources. The service also aims to foster funded toward midtier acquisition for tion (JCTD) funded by the O ce of the potential government markets for ear- fi ve years. That e ort is moving along. Secretary of Defense and running to ly adoption of commercial eVTOLs for We just completed a prize competition 2021. This is looking at autonomous missions such as distributed logistics, out of Naval Air Systems Command.” logistics and, potentially, limited ca- medevac, fi refi ghting, search and res- The Tactical Resupply Unmanned sualty evacuation and emergency ex- cue, disaster relief and base security. Aircraft System (TRUAS) competitive traction. The Marine Corps is aiming The Marine Corps is interested in fl yo was conducted at Yuma Proving for early operational capability with three classes of VTOL cargo aircraft, Ground, Arizona, on Jan. 27-31 to eval- the medium ULS-A by 2025 and full or Unmanned Logistics Systems-Air uate the autonomous aerial delivery operational capability by 2030. (ULS-A). The small platform would de- capability of existing small UAS. Six There is approximately $120 mil- liver 60-150 lb. over a 5-10-nm radi us for companies competed. lion in the budget beginning in fis- squad resupply. The medium platform Survice Engineering won the cal 2019 for the small platform and Y ERI would carry 300-500 lb. over a 15-110- $100,000 fi rst prize with the TRV-150, to begin preparations for a medium nm radius for platoon resupply and car- a multirotor cargo UAS developed with ULS-A program once the JCTD is go fl ights between expeditionary bases. the UK’s Malloy Aeronautics. Capable complete, says Borrelli. There is also The large ULS-A, where eVTOLs of lifting up to 150 lb., the TRV-150 can approximately another $30 million could fi nd a niche, would fl y a 1,000- carry a 50-lb. payload 50 km (27 nm). from stakeholders in 2019-21 for the

AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 CARGO JOEPRIESAVIATION.NET Cargo Operators Work Together for Sustainability Gains

> COVID-19 CRISIS WILL DELAY BUT NOT HALT AIR CARGO’S SUSTAINABILITY DRIVE > EMBRACING DIGITIZATION WOULD ALSO HELP SUSTAINABILITY, SAYS HACTL CEO

Optimizing flight routes is part of Lufthansa Cargo’s sustainability effort.

Helen Massy-Beresford Paris

52 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST CARGO JOEPRIESAVIATION.NET TIACA The company is also with short-term goals But is there a danger that even once Cargo Operators Work Together using mobile computing such as helping compa- the coronavirus outbreak subsides, to shake up its ramp op- nies measure their sus- recovery efforts within the industry for Sustainability Gains erations, reducing tug tainability performance will push sustainability initiatives far distances, cutting fuel through self-assessment down the agenda? Polmans thinks not. > COVID-19 CRISIS WILL DELAY BUT NOT HALT AIR CARGO’S SUSTAINABILITY DRIVE consumption and emis- and providing advice “If this had happened two years ago, sions as well as replac- and training. that would have been a danger. At that > EMBRACING DIGITIZATION WOULD ALSO HELP SUSTAINABILITY, SAYS HACTL CEO ing some diesel vehicles “My dream as TIACA time, sustainability was too much of a with electric ones. chairman is to even- fashion. But I think it has now become As a big player—it tually have in place an important enough for everybody not can handle up to 3.5 official logistics sustain- to be forgotten.” million tons per year— ability index, with cer- Polmans also notes that improving Hactl has an advantage TIACA Chairman Steven tificates for companies sustainability means not only cutting over smaller counter- Polmans wants more showing how sustain- emissions—the cargo sector has a role parts. coordination to improve able they are based on to play in humanitarian crises as well “Any change we make air cargo sustainability. TIACA’s sustainability as in safeguarding wildlife, for exam- tends to have a very vis- vision,” Polmans says. ple. “Too often when we talk about ible impact,” Kwong adds. “But there Of course, the association’s short- sustainability, people do not look fur- are opportunities for the industry as term activities are being disrupted by ther than the environment, and sus- a whole, even at small sites, such as the COVID-19 crisis, which is threat- tainability is so much more than that.” solar power [and] switching from die- ening the very survival of some oper- TIACA has launched an annual sel to electric power.” ators in the broader air transport sec- sustainability award and, in Novem- Optimizing flight routes is part of Lufthansa To encourage cooperation, bring to- tor, which was already under pressure ber 2019, recognized Wings for Aid, Cargo’s sustainability effort. gether disparate players within the air before the pandemic hit: 2019 was the which is developing a remotely piloted cargo supply chain and bring smaller worst year for air cargo in a decade, aircraft system to deliver humanitari- companies on board, TIACA has set thanks to weak growth in global trade an goods to people isolated by natural Helen Massy-Beresford Paris up a sustainability working group, and tariff wars. disasters and human-made crises. c

While the world all about, even if it’s a very prominent using lighter containers, improving reels from the spi- one,” Polmans says. “We’re afraid that energy and resources consumption raling impact of the too much attention is going to that at ground operations, improving op- COVID-19 pandem- part. And we do not want that to be erations such as boosting load fac- ic, air cargo is one an excuse for other players in the in- tor and optimizing flight routings, ONE IN A SERIES of the sectors keep- dustry to say, ‘That’s the problem part investing in innovation projects and Topics focus on key components driving ing the economy of the industry—we can ignore it.’” working with customers on environ- the industry: moving by delivering goods and vital Wilson Kwong, chief executive of mental issues. The future of aerospace manufacturing medical supplies around the world. Hong Kong air cargo terminal oper- Although new technologies provide Operations: systems integration and agile manufacturing But once the immediate corona- ator Hactl, a major player in what opportunities for sustainability, such How automation and digitalization will transform virus crisis is under control, will cargo he describes as the “often-forgotten as modernizing cargo fleets, introduc- aerospace manufacturing operators resume their focus on what cargo-handling area,” sees potential ing biofuels or using lightweight mate- How suppliers need to adopt and adapt to the they see as vital efforts to make their for improving sustainability in paral- rials to reduce the weight of contain- new manufacturing era businesses more sustainable? lel with industry’s efforts to increase ers, many established technologies are Additive manufacturing in aerospace from a The International Air Cargo As- digitization to make operations more still not being fully exploited, Kwong strategic business perspective How can innovation around manufacturing sociation (TIACA) has set up a pro- efficient, reliable and transparent. says. He notes that Hactl, which holds contribute to job creation and workforce diversity gram aimed at driving sustainabil- “As an industry, we need to stop re - a Green Week to improve ecological AUGUST 25-26, 2020 ity goals throughout the industry sisting digitization—that would take awareness among staff, has recently Charleston, SC by raising awareness, sharing best thousands of tons of waste paper out banned single-use plastics from its Who benefits from attending? practices, encouraging innovation of the business, save many trees as terminal—replacing them with cot- Designed for leaders and decision-makers from OEMs to Equipment OEMs, sub-tier manufacturers, material and parts suppliers and partnerships, and supporting well as [provide] greater efficiency ton bags, reusable staff lunch boxes, Supplier Tiers in the Aerospace Manufacturing Industry cargo operators, especially the small- and visibility.” refillable water bottles and 80 wa- Supply chain executives and senior decision er players that make up a large part Kwong adds: “Something we ter fountains—and has made use of makers The SpeedNews 8th Annual Aerospace Manufacturing Conference will bring together Strategic planning, marketing executives and of the industry. learned long ago is that steps that abandoned wooden pallets to make leading manufacturers and suppliers in the aerospace industry to present updates and business development leaders Above all, TIACA Chairman Ste- make good eco sense also often make furniture. “We hold a Green Week to developments in manufacturing operations, capabilities and processes, innovation within Executives in production, operations, research ven Polmans says, more cooperation good business sense.” make our staff think about how they manufacturing, modern machining technologies, and automation. & development, technology and engineering is needed to improve the sector’s sus- Lufthansa Cargo, which operates can contribute to a more sustainable Delegates will gain a full understanding of the latest trends, challenges and forecasts in the tainability record. “We do believe that a fleet of MD-11F and Boeing 777Fs planet,” he says. aerospace manufacturing industry, and be provided with insider knowledge and examples as an industry, we urgently need to and makes use of the belly capacity of “We have upgraded our extensive of products that can have a direct impact on their own operations and improve their work on sustainability,” he says, not- Lufthansa passenger aircraft, is aim- chiller facilities to run on less harm- productivity and profitability. ing that the entire industry needs to ing to reduce its specific CO2 emissions ful gases, installed air curtains to pre- take action, not just aircraft or engine by 25% from its 2005 level by 2020. serve temperatures and reduce pow- 2901 28th Street, Suite 100 Register and Learn More at: Santa Monica, CA 90405, USA manufacturers or airlines. To do this, Lufthansa Cargo is re- er consumption, and more carefully Conf.Events/AMC Tel: +1-310-857-7691 • Email: [email protected] “The flying part is a very small por- ducing CO2 emissions by implement- regulated air conditioning to reduce tion of what the air cargo industry is ing fleet and engine modernization, power use,” Kwong says.

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54 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST Aerospace Calendar Contact Us To submit Aerospace Calendar Listings President/Publisher: Gregory D. Hamilton; +1 (212) 204-4368; [email protected] email: [email protected] Managing Director, Global Media: Iain Blackhall (UK); +44 (0)20 7975 1670; [email protected] March 30-April 2 Now Oct 31-Nov. 3—36th Space Symposium. Broadmoor Hotel. U.S. Sales Offices Colorado Springs. See spacesymposium.org Managing Director, Americas: Beth Wagner; April 1-4 Now July 20-21—DoD Hypersonic Capabilities Symposium. Mary M. (202) 517-1061; [email protected] Director, Commercial Sales: Tom Davis; Gates Learning Center. Alexandria, Virginia. See hypersonics.dsigroup.org (469) 854-6717; [email protected] April 6-8 Canceled—Sea-Air-Space 2020. Gaylord National Resort & Convention International Regional Sales Offices Center. National Harbor, Maryland. See seaairspace.org Publisher, Defense, Space & Security: March 31-April 1 Now April 13-15—Passenger Terminal Expo 2020. Venue TBD. Andrea Rossi Prudente (UK); +44 (207) 182 4524; Amsterdam. See passengerterminal-expo.com/en [email protected] April 1-4 Now April 14-17—Aero Friedrichshafen. Messe Friedrichshafen. Marketing Services Friedrichshafen, Germany. See aero-expo.com/aero-en Director, Digital Customer Solutions: Jason Washburn; (216) 931-9161; [email protected] April 20-21 Now Dec. 14-15—Aero Montreal. Palais des Congres. Montreal. Sales Team Listings: @AviationWeek.com/sales-contacts See aeromontreal.ca April 20-23 Now Aug. 24-27—Defense Services Asia Exhibition & Conference. Business/Production Senior Manager, Ad Production: Jim Heffron; Malaysia International Trade and Exhibition Center. Kuala Lumpur. (630) 524-4552; [email protected] See dsaexhibition.com Production Coordinator: Kara Walby; April 21-23 Canceled—Asian Business Aviation Conference & Exhibition (913) 967-7476; [email protected] (ABACE2020). Shanghai Hongqiao International Airport. Shanghai. Advertising/Marketing Services See abace.aero/2020 Media Kits, Promotions or Custom Media: www.aviationweek.com/mediakits or Elizabeth Sisk; April 22-26 Now June 24-28—Eurasia Airshow 2020. Antalya International (860) 245-5632; [email protected] Airport. Muratpa/Antalya, Turkey. See eurasiaairshow.com Business and Finance Manager: Gabriel Balmes; May 5-7 Now Aug. 10-12—Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems +44 (0) 7881-010660; [email protected] International (AUVSI) XPONENTIAL 2020. Boston Convention Center. Boston. 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Wright’s Media, 2407 Timberloch Place, Suite B April 28-30 Now Sept. 1-3—MRO Americas. Dallas. The Woodlands, Texas 77380 Office: (281) 419-5725 May 1 Now Nov. 12-13—CAPA LCCs in Asia Summit. Sentosa Island, Singapore. Toll Free: (877) 652-5295 Cell: (713) 724-6987 May 7-8 Postponed/TBD—CAPA Americas Aviation & LCCs Summit. San Juan, Fax: (281) 419-5712 Puerto Rico. wrightsmedia.com/sites/aviation-week/contact.cfm May 12-13 Now Aug 25-26—Speednews Aerospace Manufacturing Conference. Social Media Charleston, South Carolina. Join the conversation. Follow us at: linkedin.com/company/aviation-week May 19-21 Now Oct. 27-29—ap&m Europe Summit & Expo. Manchester, England. Twitter.com/AviationWeek Facebook.com/AvWeek June 2 Postponed/TBD—ATW’s Airline Industry Achievement Awards. Vienna. YouTube.com/AviationWeek June 3-4 Now Spring 2021—MRO BEER (Baltics, Eastern Europe and Russia). Aviation Week & Space Technology is published biweekly, Istanbul. with one issue in August by Informa Markets, a trading division of Informa PLC, 9800 Metcalf Ave., Overland Park, KS 66212-2216. Member of Audit Bureau of Circulations and Magazine Publishers of America. Periodicals postage paid at Kansas City, MO and ADVERTISERS IN THIS ISSUE Meggitt ...... 2nd Cover additional mailing offices. Canadian GST #R126431964. Aviation Week Events Pratt & Whitney...... 11 Title reg.®in U.S. Patent Office. Copy right © 2020 by Informa Markets, a trading division of Informa PLC. All Aerospace Manufacturing Conference . 53 Raytheon...... 4th Cover rights reserved. All rights to these names are reserved MRO Americas ...... 29 Toray ...... 49 by Informa Markets. Postmaster: Send address changes to Aviation Week & Space Technology, Attention: Aviation Week Network ...... 3rd Cover Subscription Services, P.O. Box 1173, Skokie, IL 60076. Aviation Week 20 Twenties Winners... 41 Classified Advertising...... 54 Aviation Week & Space Technology Fleet Discovery...... 47 Abaris ...... 54 April 6-19, 2020 VOL. 182, NO. 7 Market Briefings...... 4 Matec ...... 54 (ISSN 0005-2175)

56 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 AviationWeek.com/awst Aerospace Calendar Contact Us To submit Aerospace Calendar Listings President/Publisher: Gregory D. Hamilton; +1 (212) 204-4368; [email protected] email: [email protected] Managing Director, Global Media: Iain Blackhall (UK); +44 (0)20 7975 1670; [email protected] March 30-April 2 Now Oct 31-Nov. 3—36th Space Symposium. Broadmoor Hotel. U.S. Sales Offices Colorado Springs. See spacesymposium.org Managing Director, Americas: Beth Wagner; April 1-4 Now July 20-21—DoD Hypersonic Capabilities Symposium. Mary M. (202) 517-1061; [email protected] Director, Commercial Sales: Tom Davis; Gates Learning Center. Alexandria, Virginia. See hypersonics.dsigroup.org (469) 854-6717; [email protected] April 6-8 Canceled—Sea-Air-Space 2020. Gaylord National Resort & Convention International Regional Sales Offices Center. National Harbor, Maryland. See seaairspace.org Publisher, Defense, Space & Security: March 31-April 1 Now April 13-15—Passenger Terminal Expo 2020. Venue TBD. Andrea Rossi Prudente (UK); +44 (207) 182 4524; Amsterdam. See passengerterminal-expo.com/en [email protected] Fleet Discovery Military April 1-4 Now April 14-17—Aero Friedrichshafen. Messe Friedrichshafen. Marketing Services Friedrichshafen, Germany. See aero-expo.com/aero-en Director, Digital Customer Solutions: Jason Washburn; (216) 931-9161; [email protected] April 20-21 Now Dec. 14-15—Aero Montreal. Palais des Congres. Montreal. Sales Team Listings: @AviationWeek.com/sales-contacts See aeromontreal.ca April 20-23 Now Aug. 24-27—Defense Services Asia Exhibition & Conference. Business/Production Senior Manager, Ad Production: Jim Heffron; Malaysia International Trade and Exhibition Center. Kuala Lumpur. (630) 524-4552; [email protected] See dsaexhibition.com Production Coordinator: Kara Walby; April 21-23 Canceled—Asian Business Aviation Conference & Exhibition (913) 967-7476; [email protected] Discover Opportunity with (ABACE2020). Shanghai Hongqiao International Airport. Shanghai. Advertising/Marketing Services See abace.aero/2020 Media Kits, Promotions or Custom Media: Unparalleled Tracking of www.aviationweek.com/mediakits or Elizabeth Sisk; April 22-26 Now June 24-28—Eurasia Airshow 2020. Antalya International (860) 245-5632; [email protected] Airport. Muratpa/Antalya, Turkey. See eurasiaairshow.com Business and Finance Manager: Gabriel Balmes; Global Military Fleets May 5-7 Now Aug. 10-12—Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems +44 (0) 7881-010660; [email protected] International (AUVSI) XPONENTIAL 2020. Boston Convention Center. Boston. Subscriber Service See xponential.org/xponential2020 U.S.: (800) 525-5003 Outside the U.S.: +1 (847) 763-9147 Aviation Week Network’s Fleet Discovery Military Manage Your Subscription (and Claim Digital Edition) at: Edition simplifi es tracking global military aircraft and aviationweek.com/awstcustomers engines — piloted and unpiloted, fi xed wing and rotary Conferences/Exhibitions — so you can discover new opportunities to grow your Aviation Week Network Events www.aviationweek.com/events: +1 (800) 722-6344 or Events.AviationWeek.com/ To Sponsor/Exhibit: Beth Eddy; business. (561) 279-4646; [email protected] April 1-2 Now Oct. 26-27—CAPA Airline Leader Summit: Making Money 2020. To Register: Virginia Gongora; ● Featuring over 70,000 aircraft and 110,000 Dublin. (212) 204-4202; [email protected] engines in service with more than 400 military April 27-28 Now Apr. 27-28, 2021—Urban Air Mobility Americas. Orlando, Florida. AW&ST Mailing List Rental and Sales Mary Ralicki: (212) 204-4284; [email protected] April 27-29 Postponed/TBD—Routes Europe 2020. Bergen, Norway. operators. Reprints, Photocopies and Permissions April 28-29 Now Sept. 2-3—Military Aviation Logistics ● Custom Reprints: [email protected] Searchable and ﬁ lterable by aircraft, engine, & Maintenance Symposium. Dallas. Wright’s Media, 2407 Timberloch Place, Suite B category, mission, lift type, weight class and April 28-30 Now Sept. 1-3—MRO Americas. Dallas. The Woodlands, Texas 77380 Office: (281) 419-5725 more. May 1 Now Nov. 12-13—CAPA LCCs in Asia Summit. Sentosa Island, Singapore. Toll Free: (877) 652-5295 Cell: (713) 724-6987 May 7-8 Postponed/TBD—CAPA Americas Aviation & LCCs Summit. San Juan, Fax: (281) 419-5712 See for yourself how Fleet Discovery Military can Puerto Rico. wrightsmedia.com/sites/aviation-week/contact.cfm help you track aircraft and engines so you never May 12-13 Now Aug 25-26—Speednews Aerospace Manufacturing Conference. Social Media miss a business opportunity. Charleston, South Carolina. Join the conversation. Follow us at: linkedin.com/company/aviation-week May 19-21 Now Oct. 27-29—ap&m Europe Summit & Expo. Manchester, England. Twitter.com/AviationWeek Facebook.com/AvWeek June 2 Postponed/TBD—ATW’s Airline Industry Achievement Awards. Vienna. YouTube.com/AviationWeek June 3-4 Now Spring 2021—MRO BEER (Baltics, Eastern Europe and Russia). Aviation Week & Space Technology is published biweekly, To learn more, go to Istanbul. with one issue in August by Informa Markets, a trading division of Informa PLC, 9800 Metcalf Ave., Overland aviationweek.com/FDMilitary Park, KS 66212-2216. Member of Audit Bureau of Circulations and Magazine Publishers of America. Or call: Meggitt ...... 2nd Cover Periodicals postage paid at Kansas City, MO and ADVERTISERS IN THIS ISSUE additional mailing offices. Canadian GST #R126431964. Anne McMahon +1 646 291 6353 Aviation Week Events Pratt & Whitney...... 11 Title reg.®in U.S. Patent Office. Copy right © 2020 by Informa Markets, a trading division of Informa PLC. All Thom Clayton +44 (0) 20 7017 6106 Aerospace Manufacturing Conference . 53 Raytheon...... 4th Cover rights reserved. All rights to these names are reserved MRO Americas ...... 29 Toray ...... 49 by Informa Markets. Postmaster: Send address changes to Aviation Week & Space Technology, Attention: Aviation Week Network ...... 3rd Cover Subscription Services, P.O. Box 1173, Skokie, IL 60076. Aviation Week 20 Twenties Winners... 41 Classified Advertising...... 54 Aviation Week & Space Technology Fleet Discovery...... 47 Abaris ...... 54 April 6-19, 2020 VOL. 182, NO. 7 Market Briefings...... 4 Matec ...... 54 (ISSN 0005-2175)

56 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 AviationWeek.com/awst EDITORIAL

A Code of Conduct for Aviation

esperate times call for bold measures, and the er possible to keep them healthy and well-informed. In the $2.2 trillion coronavirus economic rescue package near term, furloughs, wage freezes and hiring freezes may Dpassed by the U.S. Congress and signed into law be unavoidable to control costs. But prioritizing share- by President Donald Trump certainly passes that test. holders or senior executives over workers would create Tucked into the gargantuan measure was $58 billion for labor issues that could slow any recovery. airlines and cargo carriers, including $29 billion in grants Take care of your customers. You will only recover if to keep workers paid for the next six months, even if they they recover, so be flexible in responding to their issues are staffing empty flights. Boeing did not get the $60 billion during the crisis. Relationships cemented during hard directly that it had sought for aerospace manufacturers, times will pay off, while fractured relationships could but the aircraft giant and its suppliers still qualify for hefty cause long-term damage. rescue loans or guarantees. Take care of your suppliers. Aviation manufacturers The secretary general of the United Nations has called have spent decades pushing risk down to suppliers while COVID-19 the worst crisis the world has seen since World trying to limit their rewards to reduce costs. If your sup- War II, and governments have a duty to ensure that this pliers do not survive or take too long to recover, all those unprecedented pandemic does not wipe out vital indus- risks will rebound onto you. tries. But the torrent of rescue money could have negative Take care of your industrial base. The Pentagon wields side effects, and it is imperative that governments step an enormous amount of buying power at the taxpayers’ back when the crisis subsides. expense. That should be deployed to keep its supply base The market distortions of state aid already are appar- healthy in the near term, even if it is at the expense of ent in the airline industry, where a lack of coordination delaying long-term capabilities. among governments—even those within the EU—has tilt- Take care of your business. You need to come back more ed the playing field (see page 13). And what if Boeing re- agile and flexible than ever to adjust to the immediate ceives government backstops that Airbus has said it does challenges of a recovery and to tackle future challenges not need? unrelated to the coronavirus, such as climate change. It is increasingly likely that when the pandemic sub- And what about taking care of shareholders? Consider sides, the aviation industry will be facing a long uphill that in one recent year Boeing returned nearly six times march to recovery, rather than the quick bounce-back as much money to shareholders through stock buybacks that had been hoped for. As such, we urge the industry’s and dividends as it invested in R&D. Or consider that U.S. stakeholders to start looking ahead and taking steps that airlines sent 96% of their free cash flow to shareholders will position them to recover as quickly as possible. Con- over the last five years. Now that hard times have hit, tax- sider this Code of Conduct: payers are being asked to step in and foot the bill to save Take care of your employees. You will need them to the industry. Shareholders need healthy airlines and excel and work as a team when you recover. Do whatev- healthy manufacturers. They can wait their turn. c ALEX WONG/GETTY IMAGES ALEX WONG/GETTY

58 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST EDITORIAL Know. A Code of Conduct for Aviation Predict. esperate times call for bold measures, and the er possible to keep them healthy and well-informed. In the $2.2 trillion coronavirus economic rescue package near term, furloughs, wage freezes and hiring freezes may Dpassed by the U.S. Congress and signed into law be unavoidable to control costs. But prioritizing share- by President Donald Trump certainly passes that test. holders or senior executives over workers would create Connect. Tucked into the gargantuan measure was $58 billion for labor issues that could slow any recovery. airlines and cargo carriers, including $29 billion in grants Take care of your customers. You will only recover if to keep workers paid for the next six months, even if they they recover, so be flexible in responding to their issues are staffing empty flights. Boeing did not get the $60 billion during the crisis. Relationships cemented during hard directly that it had sought for aerospace manufacturers, times will pay off, while fractured relationships could but the aircraft giant and its suppliers still qualify for hefty cause long-term damage. rescue loans or guarantees. Take care of your suppliers. Aviation manufacturers The secretary general of the United Nations has called have spent decades pushing risk down to suppliers while COVID-19 the worst crisis the world has seen since World trying to limit their rewards to reduce costs. If your sup- War II, and governments have a duty to ensure that this pliers do not survive or take too long to recover, all those unprecedented pandemic does not wipe out vital indus- risks will rebound onto you. tries. But the torrent of rescue money could have negative Take care of your industrial base. The Pentagon wields side effects, and it is imperative that governments step an enormous amount of buying power at the taxpayers’ back when the crisis subsides. expense. That should be deployed to keep its supply base The market distortions of state aid already are appar- healthy in the near term, even if it is at the expense of ent in the airline industry, where a lack of coordination delaying long-term capabilities. among governments—even those within the EU—has tilt- Take care of your business. You need to come back more ed the playing field (see page 13). And what if Boeing re- agile and flexible than ever to adjust to the immediate ceives government backstops that Airbus has said it does challenges of a recovery and to tackle future challenges not need? unrelated to the coronavirus, such as climate change. It is increasingly likely that when the pandemic sub- And what about taking care of shareholders? Consider sides, the aviation industry will be facing a long uphill that in one recent year Boeing returned nearly six times march to recovery, rather than the quick bounce-back as much money to shareholders through stock buybacks that had been hoped for. As such, we urge the industry’s and dividends as it invested in R&D. Or consider that U.S. stakeholders to start looking ahead and taking steps that airlines sent 96% of their free cash flow to shareholders will position them to recover as quickly as possible. Con- over the last five years. Now that hard times have hit, tax- sider this Code of Conduct: payers are being asked to step in and foot the bill to save Take care of your employees. You will need them to the industry. Shareholders need healthy airlines and excel and work as a team when you recover. Do whatev- healthy manufacturers. They can wait their turn. c Business-critical information, predictive intelligence and connections with opportunities and people. That’s how the Aviation Week Network helps you make decisions and build your business. Delivering award-winning journalism, deep data and analytics, world-class events, and content-driven marketing services, our core principle is helping our customers succeed. Let’s grow your business. aviationweek.com/productservices ALEX WONG/GETTY IMAGES ALEX WONG/GETTY Know. Predict. Connect. 58 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/APRIL 6-19, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST WHEN INNOVATION STRIKES, THE MISSION SUCCEEDS.

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