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FEATURES COMMERCIAL AVIATION UNMANNED AVIATION 22 | New 787 problems spotlight 34 | Reliable Robotics reveals auton- 18 | Reality Bites Boeing’s quality issues omous Caravan for cargo Most observers agree aircraft manufacturers are too optimistic 24 | Border openings and uniformity TECHNOLOGY about demand for new aircraft crucial to airline recovery, CEOs say 36 | U.S. Air Force contract launches new supersonic jet company 26 | European airlines warn of barriers 40 | Adaptive Aims to recovery SUSTAINABILITY U.S. defense propulsion research 38 Startup tackles barrier to takes on new and di erent | DEFENSE decarbonizing with hydrogen challenges including a ordable 28 | The UK plans a bespoke AESA and attritable engines for missiles radar for Typhoon retroﬁ t DEFENSE and UAVs 57 | Reforging of U.S. Air Force pilot 29 | Finnish needs prompt Saab air- training hits new complications 50 | Hunter-Killer II launched decoy development Northrop Grumman and ASK THE EDITORS Lockheed Martin unveil details of 30 | Russia reveals unmanned Grom 63 | Questions about destabilizing of their MQ-9 replacement projects loyal wingman concept hypersonic weapons and stealth SPACE VIEWPOINT 58 | Brain Drain 32 | Vega and Electron return to 66 | Many companies miss the chance As industry ranks are decimated, service with new o erings to leapfrog the status quo OEMs and top-tier companies already are worried about losing too many talented workers ON THE COVER 60 | What’s Next for NOAA To target the looming threat of mobile missile launchers in Russia and China, Northrop Grumman The U.S. agency expands is developing an SG-2 next-generation hunter-killer UAS that could swarm behind enemy lines or partnerships, adding new neutralize electronic threats. Defense Editor Steve Trimble’s report on this and Lockheed Martin’s weather-monitoring tech concept for an MQ-9 replacement begins on page 50. Northrop Grumman concept image. and moving to cloud-based Aviation Week publishes a digital edition every week. Read it at AviationWeek.com/AWST data services DIGITAL EXTRAS Access exclusive online features from articles accompanied by this icon.

AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 3 AVIATION 4 SPACE& WEEK TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 for Over 45Years Your FleetsFlying Trusted to Keep Pedigree Parts Provider ofOEM The LeadingGlobal MRO Facilities Manufacturing and 5 World Class [email protected] 818-678-6555 EXPANDING OUR CAPABILITIES EXTENDING THE LIFE OF YOUR LEGACY AIRCRAFT Guy Norris, Tony Osborne, Bradley Perrett, James Pozzi, Adrian Schofield, Lee AnnShay, Steve Trimble William Garvey, Ben Goldstein, Lee Hudson, Irene Klotz, HelenMassy-Beresford, Jefferson Morris, Editors Managing Director, Intelligence &Data Services AnneMcMahon Copy Editors Editor-In-Chief Joseph C. Anselmo [email protected] Senior Manager, Data Operations/Production Terra Deskins Lindsay Bjerregaard, Sean Broderick, MichaelBruno, BillCarey, Thierry Dubois, Director, Editorial andOnline Production MichaelO. Lavitt Jens Flottau (Commercial Aviation) [email protected] Jen DiMascio (Defense andSpace) [email protected] Helen Massy-Beresford Director, Forecasts and Aerospace Insights BrianKough President, Aviation Week Network Gregory Hamilton Graham Warwick (Technology) Production Editors Audra Avizienis, Theresa Petruso Manager, Data Operations Military Michael Tint Director, Digital Content Strategy Rupa Haria Artists 2121 K Street, NW, Suite 210, Washington, D.C. 20037 Chief Aircraft Evaluation Editor Fred George Bradley Perrett Associate ManagingEditor Molly [email protected] Thierry Dubois [email protected] Tony Osborne [email protected] Contributing Photographer Joseph Pries Jen DiMascio [email protected] Lee Ann Shay [email protected] Content Marketing Manager Rija Tariq Maxim Pyadushkin [email protected] Jens Flottau [email protected] Irene Klotz [email protected] Adrian Schofield Guy [email protected] Mark Carreau [email protected] Jack Freifelder, Arturo Mora, Natalia Pelayo, Andy Savoie 605 Third Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10158 Thomas De Pierro, Rosa Pineda, Colin Throm Art Director Lisa Caputo Phone: +1 (212)204-4200 Phone: +1 (202) 517-1100 Executive Editors Data &Analytics [email protected] [email protected] Editorial Offices Cape Canaveral Bureau Chiefs Los Angeles Washington Frankfurt Auckland Houston Chicago Moscow Wichita London Beijing [email protected] Paris Lyon [email protected]

Andrea Hollowell

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Editor-In-Chief Joseph C. Anselmo [email protected] FIDDLING WHILE ROME BURNS ‘INFINITE WING’ Executive Editors My July viewpoint (July 13-26, p. 74) about the systemic On behalf of my husband, Roger Read, a long-time subscrib- Jen DiMascio (Defense and Space) [email protected] mismanagement of GPS and how perennial GPS managers er to your magazine who died Dec. 24, 2019, I would like to Jens Flottau (Commercial Aviation) [email protected] wield enough power to resist accountability points out that thank your editorial team for the very excellent tool Aviation Graham Warwick (Technology) [email protected] this has caused GPS to fall behind the Chinese and Euro- Week provided him. In his retirement years—after a long Editors Lindsay Bjerregaard, Sean Broderick, Michael Bruno, Bill Carey, Thierry Dubois, pean systems while remaining vulnerable to adversary career in aerial survey and aerial photography and as a William Garvey, Ben Goldstein, Lee Hudson, Irene Klotz, Helen Massy-Beresford, Jefferson Morris, attacks for decades, with resolution still a decade away. lecturer and author—he and aviation friend John J. A. Smith Guy Norris, Tony Osborne, Bradley Perrett, James Pozzi, Adrian Schofield, Lee Ann Shay, Steve Trimble Three great Americans in their fields—Adm. (ret.) Thad endeavored to bring the Infinite Wing, a cutting-edge in- Chief Aircraft Evaluation Editor Fred George Allen, Prof. Brad Parkinson and Capt. “Sully” Sullenberger— vention to eliminate wingtip vortices, to the attention of the Director, Editorial and Online Production Michael O. Lavitt coauthored a “rebuttal,” “LightSquared Fiasco 2.0” aeronautics world. In this, Aviation Week & Space Technology Associate Managing Editor Andrea Hollowell (Aug. 17-30, p. 66), that did not address my assertions head- proved an important source of information. Art Director Lisa Caputo on. Instead, they restated the argument that Ligado’s use of Since the passing of my husband, Mr. Smith has con- L-band causes harmful GPS interference, which has been tinued the scientific association started in 2014 with the Artists Thomas De Pierro, Rosa Pineda, Colin Throm soundly debunked by extensive world-class testing, internal College of Engineering at Swansea University. Copy Editors Jack Freifelder, Arturo Mora, Natalia Pelayo, Andy Savoie Defense Department-National Telecommunications and Milton Friedman said: “Only a crisis—actual or per- Production Editors Audra Avizienis, Theresa Petruso Information Administration documentation and the world’s ceived—produces real change.” Will COVID-19 prove to be Contributing Photographer Joseph Pries foremost spectrum management organization, the FCC. such a crisis? The Infinite Wing could offer: Director, Digital Content Strategy Rupa Haria This is deeply troubling because it confirms the worst: Climb fuel saving >15% Content Marketing Manager Rija Tariq GPS is a national security and economic vulnerability. It is Cruise fuel saving >10% Data & Analytics time for a reckoning of this mismanagement before a GPS Descent fuel saving >5% Director, Forecasts and Aerospace Insights Brian Kough “9/11” takes place in America. The L-band’s value to U.S. 5G Simple “bolt-on” wingtips is clear, as Nokia, Ericsson, Samsung, MITRE and others No spar strengthening needed Senior Manager, Data Operations/Production Terra Deskins have confirmed. Reduced noise footprint Manager, Military Data Operations Michael Tint Congress must eliminate debilitating amendments in the Reduced CO2 and NOx emissions Editorial Offices National Defense Authorization Act—notably the contract- No moving parts. 2121 K Street, NW, Suite 210, Washington, D.C. 20037 ing amendment by House Armed Services Committee Rank- Aviators, take note! Phone: +1 (202) 517-1100 ing Member Michael Turner (R-Ohio) that, disastrously, 605 Third Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10158 would give the Pentagon a “veto” over the FCC and punish Tuula Read, Enschede, The Netherlands Phone: +1 (212) 204-4200 private companies for freely and legally choosing to build Bureau Chiefs out the L-band 5G network. ‘UNLOADING’ CAVEAT Auckland We have a 5G race to win. As FCC Chairman Ajit Pai Regarding “Signs of a Shift” (July 13-26, p. 18), the “Roller- Adrian [email protected] testified to the Senate in June 2020: “This process has gone Coaster” method of unloading the stabilizer when using Beijing on long enough. . . . We made a decision based solely on the manual stabilizer trim is described in the 1982 Boeing 737- Bradley Perrett [email protected] facts and the law. I will defend this decision before any forum 200 pilot training manual and depended whether nose-up Cape Canaveral in this Congress or around the country.” or nose-down trim was required. Irene Klotz [email protected] Continuing to oppose the FCC’s unanimous, legal and If nose-up trim was required because the aircraft was in OUR CAPABILITIES AIRCRAFT LEGACY THE LIFE OF YOUR EXPANDING EXTENDING Chicago accurate finding—that Ligado bolsters U.S. 5G without a dive, the technique recommended by Boeing required the Lee Ann Shay [email protected] harming GPS—is fiddling while Rome burns. nose to be raised initially well above the horizon. This may require both pilots on the controls to raise the nose. Control 5 World Class Frankfurt Daniel S. Goldin, Malibu, California column pressure is then relaxed, allowing the nose to start Manufacturing and Jens Flottau [email protected] to fall. This is called unloading, and simultaneously one or MRO Facilities Houston both pilots rapidly wind the manual trim handles backward. Mark Carreau [email protected] As the nose passes the horizon (and the aircraft picks up London COMMERCIAL JET ENGINES Expected Revenues and Market Share, 2020-29 (U.S. $ billion) speed), the maneuver is repeated until the stabilizer trim The Leading Global Tony Osborne [email protected] Provider of OEM Single-Aisles Twin-Aisles is neutral. If this maneuver is simulated when airborne, the Los Angeles Pedigree Parts $4.2 Boeing 737 instructor manual warned that the trim was Guy Norris [email protected] $19 3% not to be deliberately set more than 2.5 units of stabilizer Lyon 14% trim either side of normal. This was a safety limitation to Thierry Dubois [email protected] $75.2 $41 Trusted to Keep 34% 31% prevent excessive control forces. Your Fleets Flying Moscow Trials reported in your article showing two pilots could Maxim Pyadushkin [email protected] $147.4 exert enough force to move the trim wheel without drop- for Over 45 Years 66% $67.9 Paris 52% ping the nose would have had to have been conducted at Helen Massy-Beresford [email protected] relatively low airspeed to be effective. 818-678-6555 Washington Jen DiMascio [email protected] Pratt & Whitney CFM GE Rolls-Royce Trent XWB Other Rolls-Royce Engines John Laming, Tullamarine, Australia [email protected] Source: Teal Group Wichita Molly McMillin [email protected] CORRECTIONS Address letters to the Editor-in-Chief, Aviation Week & President, Aviation Week Network Gregory Hamilton The slices in the “Twin-Aisles” pie chart accompanying the Space Technology, 2121 K Street, NW, Suite 210, article “‘The Golden Age Is Over’” (Aug. 31-Sept. 13, p. 16) Washington, DC, 20037 or send via email to: Managing Director, Intelligence & Data Services Anne McMahon were misidentified. The corrected pie chart appears above. [email protected] Letters may be edited The scale for “Growing Military Engine Repair, 2020-29” for length and clarity; a verifiable address and daytime (Aug. 31-Sept. 13, p. 9) should have been “(U.S. $ billion).” telephone number are required. Source: Teal Group

4 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 5 WHO’S WHERE Webhed: New Positions, Promotions, Honors And Elections Teaser: Primary Category: Kendall Goodman Redwire has hired Al Tadros as chief facility at Miami-Opa Locka Executive Secondary Category: has been promoted growth officer and executive vice pres- Airport. Michel (Mike) Menard suc- to AVX Aircraft president of space infrastructure. He joins ceeds Beaudette as general manager Bullet Points: ident and chief oper- Redwire from Maxar, where he was of the Tucson, Arizona, service center. ating officer. Good- vice president of space infrastructure Beaudette has 30 years’ experience man was serving as and civil space. with Bombardier. Menard was vice chief operating offi- Wheels Up has president and general manager for cer and also had been senior vice pres- appointed U.S. Air StandardAero and ident of the company’s Future Vertical Force Lt. Gen. (ret.) Dassault Aircraft Lift effort and program manager of its Thomas W. Bergeson Services U.S. Future Attack Reconnaissance Aircraft chief operating of- NASA has named Competitive Prototype. Goodman has ficer. He succeeds Catherine Koerner been awarded six U.S. patents. Jason Horowitz, who manager of the Orion International Airlines Group has moves to a new role as chief business program, overseeing named Luis Gallego as CEO; he suc- officer. Bergeson will oversee company development and op- ceeds Willie Walsh, who has retired. operations; Horowitz will focus on busi- erations of NASA’s newest spacecraft to Gallego was the head of Iberia and ness strategy. carry astronauts to the Moon and back. launched Iberia Ex- Risk management and mission sup- Koerner has been a flight director, space press; before that, he port services provider Constellis has shuttle manager, deputy manager of the was chief operating hired Richard Hozik as chief financial vehicle office and manager of the trans- officer at Vueling. officer. Hozik held executive positions for portation integration office for the Inter- Elizabeth Anderson government and commercial entities. national Space Station has been appointed Astroscale has program. CEO of the British hired Sharon Parker- Renee Martin- Interplanetary Society Lines as UK opera- Nagle has joined think tank. She worked at the Con- tions director. Parker- Eckert Seamans as federation of British Industry, The Lines was director of special counsel in Aldridge Foundation and at the Royal the Oxford Center for the firm’s Pittsburgh College of Surgeons of England, where Innovation. office. She served for she led a major overhaul of governance. Parker Aerospace more than 20 years at Airbus Americas, Jean-Paul Alary has been named CEO has promoted Michael Portela to group retiring in 2011 as vice president, gen- of Safran Aircraft Engines. He succeeds vice president of operations, airframe eral counsel, chief compliance officer, Olivier Andries, who has been named and actuation. He was general manager head of environmental affairs, corporate Safran executive vice president to suc- at Advanced Atomization Technolo- secretary and board member. She joins ceed Philippe Petitcolin in January 2021. gies, a Parker Aerospace-GE Aviation Eckert Seamans from water law and Andries had served with the French joint venture. resources consultancy A Ripple Effect, finance ministry and the Lagardere GRSi has promoted Kelly Baldwin where she was CEO and president. group. Alary was head of Safran Power to vice president of defense programs U.S. Navy Rear Adm. (ret.) and Units (formerly Snecma). Both men are and general manager of the company’s Space Foundation CEO Thomas Zelibor on the executive committee. Naval Information Warfare Center has joined the Defense Innovation Board Vertical Aerospace operations. He was project manager Space Advisory Committee. has hired Eric and leader of the platform integration Aerojet Rocketdyne has appointed Samson as head of business unit. Audrey McNiff to its board. She worked engineering. He was Elliott Aviation has promoted at Goldman Sachs in the hedge funds and vice president of en- Lawrence Harting to vice president sovereign wealth funds departments. gineering and head of of operations from vice president Maintenance, repair and overhaul design at Jet Aviation. and general manager at Flying Cloud provider Elliott Aviation has named Gulfstream has Airport in Eden Prairie, Minnesota. Melissa Maddox to its board. She was appointed Josh Thompson as chief He was director of operations and vice president and general manager for financial officer. He had been with Gen- manager of scheduling and planning at StandardAero in Houston. eral Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Dassault Aircraft Services. Novaria Group has elected Bonnie Systems. He succeeds Dan Clare, who Bombardier Aviation has appointed Peat and James Riley to its board. Peat has retired. Marc Beaudette general manager of its was vice president at Parker Aero- Lisa Campbell has been appoint- Fort Lauderdale, Florida, service cen- space, and Riley was CEO of Consoli- ed president of the Canadian Space ter, which is planned to move to a new dated Precision Products. c Agency. Campbell was associate deputy minister of Veterans Affairs Can- To submit information for the Who’s Where column, send Word or attached text files ada and before that led military and (no PDFs) and photos to: [email protected] For additional information on marine procurement for the country. companies and individuals listed in this column, please refer to the Aviation Week Intelligence She succeeds Sylvain Laporte, who Network at AviationWeek.com/awin For information on ordering, telephone has retired. U.S.: +1 (866) 857-0148 or +1 (515) 237-3682 outside the U.S.

6 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST WHO’S WHERE Webhed: New Positions, Promotions, Honors And Elections Teaser: Primary Category: Kendall Goodman Redwire has hired Al Tadros as chief facility at Miami-Opa Locka Executive Secondary Category: has been promoted growth officer and executive vice pres- Airport. Michel (Mike) Menard suc- to AVX Aircraft president of space infrastructure. He joins ceeds Beaudette as general manager Bullet Points: ident and chief oper- Redwire from Maxar, where he was of the Tucson, Arizona, service center. ating officer. Good- vice president of space infrastructure Beaudette has 30 years’ experience man was serving as and civil space. with Bombardier. Menard was vice chief operating offi- Wheels Up has president and general manager for cer and also had been senior vice pres- appointed U.S. Air StandardAero and ident of the company’s Future Vertical Force Lt. Gen. (ret.) Dassault Aircraft Lift effort and program manager of its Thomas W. Bergeson Services U.S. Future Attack Reconnaissance Aircraft chief operating of- NASA has named Competitive Prototype. Goodman has ficer. He succeeds Catherine Koerner been awarded six U.S. patents. Jason Horowitz, who manager of the Orion International Airlines Group has moves to a new role as chief business program, overseeing named Luis Gallego as CEO; he suc- officer. Bergeson will oversee company development and op- ceeds Willie Walsh, who has retired. operations; Horowitz will focus on busi- erations of NASA’s newest spacecraft to Gallego was the head of Iberia and ness strategy. carry astronauts to the Moon and back. launched Iberia Ex- Risk management and mission sup- Koerner has been a flight director, space press; before that, he port services provider Constellis has shuttle manager, deputy manager of the was chief operating hired Richard Hozik as chief financial vehicle office and manager of the trans- officer at Vueling. officer. Hozik held executive positions for portation integration office for the Inter- Elizabeth Anderson government and commercial entities. national Space Station has been appointed Astroscale has program. CEO of the British hired Sharon Parker- Renee Martin- Interplanetary Society Lines as UK opera- Nagle has joined think tank. She worked at the Con- tions director. Parker- Eckert Seamans as federation of British Industry, The Lines was director of special counsel in Aldridge Foundation and at the Royal the Oxford Center for the firm’s Pittsburgh College of Surgeons of England, where Innovation. office. She served for she led a major overhaul of governance. Parker Aerospace more than 20 years at Airbus Americas, Jean-Paul Alary has been named CEO has promoted Michael Portela to group retiring in 2011 as vice president, gen- of Safran Aircraft Engines. He succeeds vice president of operations, airframe eral counsel, chief compliance officer, Olivier Andries, who has been named and actuation. He was general manager head of environmental affairs, corporate Safran executive vice president to suc- at Advanced Atomization Technolo- secretary and board member. She joins ceed Philippe Petitcolin in January 2021. gies, a Parker Aerospace-GE Aviation Eckert Seamans from water law and Andries had served with the French joint venture. resources consultancy A Ripple Effect, finance ministry and the Lagardere GRSi has promoted Kelly Baldwin where she was CEO and president. group. Alary was head of Safran Power to vice president of defense programs U.S. Navy Rear Adm. (ret.) and Units (formerly Snecma). Both men are and general manager of the company’s Space Foundation CEO Thomas Zelibor on the executive committee. Naval Information Warfare Center has joined the Defense Innovation Board Vertical Aerospace operations. He was project manager Space Advisory Committee. has hired Eric and leader of the platform integration Aerojet Rocketdyne has appointed Samson as head of business unit. Audrey McNiff to its board. She worked engineering. He was Elliott Aviation has promoted at Goldman Sachs in the hedge funds and vice president of en- Lawrence Harting to vice president sovereign wealth funds departments. gineering and head of of operations from vice president Maintenance, repair and overhaul design at Jet Aviation. and general manager at Flying Cloud provider Elliott Aviation has named Gulfstream has Airport in Eden Prairie, Minnesota. Melissa Maddox to its board. She was appointed Josh Thompson as chief He was director of operations and vice president and general manager for financial officer. He had been with Gen- manager of scheduling and planning at StandardAero in Houston. eral Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Dassault Aircraft Services. Novaria Group has elected Bonnie Systems. He succeeds Dan Clare, who Bombardier Aviation has appointed Peat and James Riley to its board. Peat has retired. Marc Beaudette general manager of its was vice president at Parker Aero- Lisa Campbell has been appoint- Fort Lauderdale, Florida, service cen- space, and Riley was CEO of Consoli- ed president of the Canadian Space ter, which is planned to move to a new dated Precision Products. c Agency. Campbell was associate deputy minister of Veterans Affairs Can- To submit information for the Who’s Where column, send Word or attached text files ada and before that led military and (no PDFs) and photos to: [email protected] For additional information on marine procurement for the country. companies and individuals listed in this column, please refer to the Aviation Week Intelligence She succeeds Sylvain Laporte, who Network at AviationWeek.com/awin For information on ordering, telephone has retired. U.S.: +1 (866) 857-0148 or +1 (515) 237-3682 outside the U.S.

6 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST FIRST DRDO

combined 26.1 billion yuan ($3.8 billion) DEFENSE TAKE net loss for the first six months of 2020, India’s defense research For the latest, go to even as they worked their way back to- organization conducted a AVIATIONWEEK.COM ward normal capacity. 20-sec. scramjet-powered, Mach 6 test flight of the Embattled aircraft connectivity provider indigenous Hypersonic COMMERCIAL Gogo will sell its commercial aviation Technology Demonstration A quality issue with assembly of hori- unit to bankrupt satellite services pro- Vehicle on Sept. 7. zontal stabilizers is slowing deliveries vider Intelsat for $400 million. of the Boeing 787, and follows discovery The U.S. Air Force has awarded sole bid- of unrelated defects in fuselage sections An Etihad Airways 787-10 has begun a der Northrop Grumman a $13.3 billion of the widebody twin (page 22). series of test flights as part of Boeing’s contract for the Ground-Based Strate- ecoDemonstrator program aimed at re- gic Deterrent program to replace the Ed Dandridge has been named senior ducing CO2 emissions and noise. Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic vice president and chief communications missile. officer of Boeing. He joins from AIG Gen- Contracts totaling $33 million for eral Insurance, where he was global chief all-electric power train and fuel-to-elec- The U.S. Air Force is to launch a competi- marketing and communications officer. tric power conversion technologies for tion between General Electric and Pratt future single-aisle airliners have been & Whitney to deliver up to 461 engines Embraer is laying off 900 employees awarded by the U.S. Energy Department. for its planned Boeing F-15EX fleet. in Brazil, 4.5% of its global workforce, blaming COVID-19 and the termina- E-commerce giant Amazon has received As a budget debate continues over the tion of the planned commercial-aircraft FAA Part 135 air-carrier certification helicopter program’s fate, Boeing has partnership with Boeing (page 58). for its Prime Air drone service but does delivered the first MH-47G Chinook not plan to begin commercial deliveries modified to Block II standard to U.S. China’s three state carriers reported a imminently. Special Operations Command.

VIEW FROM LONDON The UK is investing £317 million ($410 million) in development of an active- array radar for the Royal Air Force’s Brexit Threat Returns Euro fighter Typhoons (page 28).

The UK aerospace industry is again warning of the dangers of a KAI “no-deal” Brexit after it emerged that the UK government could renege on elements of the Withdrawal Agreement previously struck with the EU. “The economic impact of the pandemic makes the cost of failure in negotiations especially severe,” says trade association ADS’ CEO Paul Everitt. His comments came after media reports the UK could tear up elements of the agreement relating to Northern Ireland. The first Korea Aerospace Industries Reneging on that agreement is seen by many as a nuclear option KF-X fighter prototype has entered final and could result in UK-EU trade talks collapsing. That would leave assembly and is scheduled to be rolled the UK without a deal with its largest trading partner, in turn dam- out in June 2021. aging an increasingly fragile aerospace industry already ravaged DARPA and the U.S. Air Force plan to by COVID-19. start free-flight tests of Lockheed Martin “A no-deal outcome to Brexit negotiations is the worst possible and Raytheon scramjet-powered missile demonstrators by the end of the year. result,” Everitt says. “Manufacturers in our sectors rely on complex Pan-European supply chains, international regulatory ar- Airbus is to deliver 17 uprated, fenestron- rangements and access to the EU market as the largest destination tailed UH-72B Lakota helicopters to the U.S. Army and National Guard over the for UK aerospace products.” next two years. The UK left the EU in January but remains a part of the single market and customs union for a transition period that ends on SPACE Launched by a Long March 2F booster, a Dec. 31. The news emerges as the UK aviation industry awaits Chinese “reusable experimental space- government plans for a stimulus package like those in France craft” touched down at the scheduled and Germany. c landing site on Sept. 6 after two days in orbit.

8 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST Where China’s Air Force Still Lags FIRST DRDO 2,200 Where China’s Air combined 26.1 billion yuan ($3.8 billion) DEFENSE 2,000 U.S. Air Force TAKE net loss for the first six months of 2020, India’s defense research Force Still Lags 1,800 PLAAF For the latest, go to even as they worked their way back to- organization conducted a The latest U.S. Defense Department annual report AVIATIONWEEK.COM ward normal capacity. 20-sec. scramjet-powered, 1,600 Mach 6 test flight of the on China’s military notes the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) is rapidly catching up with Embattled aircraft connectivity provider indigenous Hypersonic 1,400 COMMERCIAL Gogo will sell its commercial aviation Technology Demonstration Western capabilities. Aviation Week Network analy- A quality issue with assembly of hori- unit to bankrupt satellite services pro- Vehicle on Sept. 7. 1,200 sis shows that while China has made huge strides in zontal stabilizers is slowing deliveries vider Intelsat for $400 million. modernizing its fleet, the greatest disparity remains 1,000 of the Boeing 787, and follows discovery The U.S. Air Force has awarded sole bid- in mobility and power projection: Tankers and trans-

Number of Aircraft ports account for 33% of the U.S. Air Force fleet of unrelated defects in fuselage sections An Etihad Airways 787-10 has begun a der Northrop Grumman a $13.3 billion 800 of the widebody twin (page 22). series of test flights as part of Boeing’s contract for the Ground-Based Strate- compared to 15% of the PLAAF’s. c ecoDemonstrator program aimed at re- gic Deterrent program to replace the 600 Ed Dandridge has been named senior ducing CO2 emissions and noise. Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic vice president and chief communications missile. 400 To request more information about Aviation officer of Boeing. He joins from AIG Gen- Contracts totaling $33 million for Week’s Military Fleet & MRO Forecast, go to eral Insurance, where he was global chief all-electric power train and fuel-to-elec- The U.S. Air Force is to launch a competi- 200 pages.AviationWeek.com/Forecasts marketing and communications officer. tric power conversion technologies for tion between General Electric and Pratt 0 future single-aisle airliners have been & Whitney to deliver up to 461 engines Fighter Bomber C4ISR Tanker Transport Source: Craig Caffery/Aviation Week Intelligence Network Embraer is laying off 900 employees awarded by the U.S. Energy Department. for its planned Boeing F-15EX fleet. in Brazil, 4.5% of its global workforce, Source: ra aerao ee ellece eor blaming COVID-19 and the termina- E-commerce giant Amazon has received As a budget debate continues over the Arianespace’s Vega rocket returned to the U.S. National Security Space Archi- AWARDED tion of the planned commercial-aircraft FAA Part 135 air-carrier certification helicopter program’s fate, Boeing has flight Sept. 3 from Europe’s spaceport in tecture, for launch by Sept. 2022. Former NASA Administrator USMC Maj. partnership with Boeing (page 58). for its Prime Air drone service but does delivered the first MH-47G Chinook Kourou, French Guiana, with a ride-share Gen. (ret.) Charles Bolden is to receive not plan to begin commercial deliveries modified to Block II standard to U.S. mission carrying 53 satellites (page 32). After repeated attempts to sell a sol- the 2020 Wright Brothers Memorial China’s three state carriers reported a imminently. Special Operations Command. id-propellant, heavy-lift vehicle for U.S. Trophy for his “public service in avia- Lockheed Martin and York Space Systems national security launches, Northrop tion and aerospace as an aviator, astro- VIEW FROM LONDON The UK is investing £317 million ($410 will each build 10 networking satellites Grumman is discontinuing work on its naut and leader,” says the U.S. National million) in development of an active- for the Tranche 0 Transport Layer of Omega rocket. Aeronautic Association. c array radar for the Royal Air Force’s Brexit Threat Returns Euro fighter Typhoons (page 28). 75 YEARS AGO IN AVIATION WEEK KAI The UK aerospace industry is again warning of the dangers of a Peace came fast in 1945. On Aug. 5, Operation Downfall, the U.S. Project scientists, he wrote, predicted that it would take a decade “no-deal” Brexit after it emerged that the UK government could ground invasion of Japan set for November, was still a “go.” One to harness atomic energy for civilian purposes, which proved eeri- renege on elements of the Withdrawal Agreement previously week—and the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki—later, ly precise when the first nuclear power plant opened in the Sovi - struck with the EU. Japan was set for unconditional surrender. Whatever the staff of et Union nine years later. In the meantime, the device to look for “The economic impact of the pandemic makes the cost of failure Aviation had planned for the September issue, they pivoted. After next, Powell predicted, was the integration of the atom bomb with an eight-page special feature that meticulously diagrammed the two other scientific marvels yielded by World War II: Germany’s in negotiations especially severe,” says trade association ADS’ CEO physics of atom splitting, Herb Powell, the associate editor, at - V-2-type missiles precisely guided by “radio-electronic devices.” Paul Everitt. His comments came after media reports the UK could tempted to grapple with the implications. A survey of Manhattan In other words, an intercontinental ballistic missile. c tear up elements of the agreement relating to Northern Ireland. The first Korea Aerospace Industries Reneging on that agreement is seen by many as a nuclear option KF-X fighter prototype has entered final and could result in UK-EU trade talks collapsing. That would leave assembly and is scheduled to be rolled the UK without a deal with its largest trading partner, in turn dam- out in June 2021. aging an increasingly fragile aerospace industry already ravaged DARPA and the U.S. Air Force plan to by COVID-19. start free-flight tests of Lockheed Martin “A no-deal outcome to Brexit negotiations is the worst possible and Raytheon scramjet-powered missile demonstrators by the end of the year. result,” Everitt says. “Manufacturers in our sectors rely on complex Pan-European supply chains, international regulatory ar- Airbus is to deliver 17 uprated, fenestron- rangements and access to the EU market as the largest destination tailed UH-72B Lakota helicopters to the U.S. Army and National Guard over the for UK aerospace products.” next two years. The UK left the EU in January but remains a part of the single market and customs union for a transition period that ends on SPACE Launched by a Long March 2F booster, a Dec. 31. The news emerges as the UK aviation industry awaits Chinese “reusable experimental space- government plans for a stimulus package like those in France craft” touched down at the scheduled landing site on Sept. 6 after two days and Germany. c Subscribers can access every issue of Aviation Week back to 1916 at: archive.aviationweek.com in orbit.

8 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 9 COMMENTARY UP FRONT RICHARD ABOULAFIA

FOR THE TWO BIG COMMERCIAL There are few new European programs, and the aircraft OEMs, the next few years will be most important by far, the Franco-German-Spanish very tough going. It will be important for Future Combat Air System, has been given to Dassault. them to maintain a strategic plan, a list Dassault has a strong fighter culture and is not famous of goals and directions beyond mere survival. In July, for cooperating with other primes. Kevin Michaels’ column provided a definitive list of For Airbus, the challenge is clear: It must motivate Boeing’s priorities (July 27-Aug. 13, p. 10). Here is my political leaders to create new programs, get more equivalent strategic priorities list for Airbus: work on existing programs or promote military de- ➊ Make a tough twin-aisle choice. Airbus A350 XWB rivatives of civil platforms such as the KC-30 tanker output is falling quickly, probably by at least 50%. Mean- or H160M helicopter. while, Airbus’ other twin-aisle, the A330neo, has an ➍ Preserve a global production strategy. Boeing has extremely weak orderbook and faces years of two-per- six final production lines in three sites: Renton (737) and month production rates. The two aircraft are not all that Everett (777/777X, 767/KC-46, 787, 747) in Washington, different in terms of capabilities and price point. Airbus and Charleston (787) in South Carolina. The Boeing 747 must decide whether to bolster A350XWB sales by kill- line is closing, and one 787 line is likely to close, leaving the A330, which would end a profitable long-running ing four lines. Airbus has nine lines in five sites: Tou- program but rationalize production, saving money. louse (A320, A330, A350, A380); Hamburg, Germany Forward Planning A five-part strategy for Airbus

AIRBUS This decision largely comes down to Delta Air (A320/321); Mobile, Alabama (A220, A320/321); Tianjin, Lines, the only truly strategic (and healthy) A330neo China (A320/321); and Montreal (A220). This line prolif- customer. Since Delta is also an A350XWB customer, eration represents high fixed costs, and in a downturn consolidating these orders should not be a problem. there will be some temptation to rationalize these sites. Airbus also needs to consult with Rolls-Royce, the en- But in many cases, particularly in China and the gine prime on both programs, since Airbus needs to U.S., secondary lines have helped to circumvent probe mindful of Rolls’ health. tectionist trade barriers. While the A330neo may be ➋ Maintain aircraft design capabilities. Overall, Airbus’ on the chopping block and the A380 is dying, Airbus product portfolio is in better shape than Boeing’s, would be well-advised to preserve the other seven since the latter company is heavily dependent on the lines, despite the overhead. 737-8 for its single-aisle market standing, while Airbus ➎ Leverage better supplier relations. With Partnering enjoys a strong presence throughout its narrowbody for Success and other initiatives, Boeing has been product line. It will be easy for Airbus to become com- squeezing its suppliers’ margins by demanding price placent and coast on this product lineup, though, jeop- concessions, aftermarket rights and lengthened pay- ardizing its strong design capabilities. ment terms. The results are a weakened supply chain So far, unlike Boeing, Airbus has not announced seri- and a lot of alienation. ous R&D budget cuts. Yet it is not really clear what its Airbus can take advantage of Boeing’s aggressive ap- engineers are doing: Airbus has not had an active new proach by quietly telling suppliers that it will offer bet- commercial development program since the A350-1000 ter terms and conditions in exchange for superior and entered service in February 2018. Factory digitization, more innovative products. This approach could mean green initiatives and ancillary aviation concepts are not that the next generation of Airbus jets will be more com- the same as designing a new jet. Some kind of new pro- petitive than Boeing’s, since Airbus’ will be enabled by gram—even just a stretched A220-500—is essential to best-in-class subsystems and technologies that surpass keep jet design and integration skills intact. what Boeing’s aggrieved suppliers are willing to provide. ➌ Rejuvenate defense. Two decades ago, Airbus (and The COVID-19 downturn will be brutal. But if Airbus predecessor EADS) defense programs were all about prioritizes long-term outcomes, it will come out of it to hit their stride. The A400M transport, Eurofighter/ stronger than ever. c Typhoon, Tiger and NH90 helicopters and others had promising futures. Today, these platforms are winding Contributing columnist Richard Aboulafia is vice president of down, with dwindling backlogs. analysis at Teal Group. He is based in Washington.

10 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMENTARY UP FRONT RICHARD ABOULAFIA

AIRBUS This decision largely comes down to Delta Air (A320/321); Mobile, Alabama (A220, A320/321); Tianjin, Lines, the only truly strategic (and healthy) A330neo China (A320/321); and Montreal (A220). This line prolif- customer. Since Delta is also an A350XWB customer, eration represents high fixed costs, and in a downturn consolidating these orders should not be a problem. there will be some temptation to rationalize these sites. Airbus also needs to consult with Rolls-Royce, the en- But in many cases, particularly in China and the gine prime on both programs, since Airbus needs to U.S., secondary lines have helped to circumvent probe mindful of Rolls’ health. tectionist trade barriers. While the A330neo may be ➋ Maintain aircraft design capabilities. Overall, Airbus’ on the chopping block and the A380 is dying, Airbus product portfolio is in better shape than Boeing’s, would be well-advised to preserve the other seven since the latter company is heavily dependent on the lines, despite the overhead. 737-8 for its single-aisle market standing, while Airbus ➎ Leverage better supplier relations. With Partnering enjoys a strong presence throughout its narrowbody for Success and other initiatives, Boeing has been product line. It will be easy for Airbus to become com- squeezing its suppliers’ margins by demanding price placent and coast on this product lineup, though, jeop- concessions, aftermarket rights and lengthened pay- ardizing its strong design capabilities. ment terms. The results are a weakened supply chain So far, unlike Boeing, Airbus has not announced seri- and a lot of alienation. ous R&D budget cuts. Yet it is not really clear what its Airbus can take advantage of Boeing’s aggressive ap- engineers are doing: Airbus has not had an active new proach by quietly telling suppliers that it will offer bet- commercial development program since the A350-1000 ter terms and conditions in exchange for superior and entered service in February 2018. Factory digitization, more innovative products. This approach could mean green initiatives and ancillary aviation concepts are not that the next generation of Airbus jets will be more com- The Courage to Meet Tomorrow's Challenges Today the same as designing a new jet. Some kind of new pro- petitive than Boeing’s, since Airbus’ will be enabled by gram—even just a stretched A220-500—is essential to best-in-class subsystems and technologies that surpass keep jet design and integration skills intact. what Boeing’s aggrieved suppliers are willing to provide. IAI draws on innovative solutions and proven technologies to meet today and tomorrow's challenges. ➌ Rejuvenate defense. Two decades ago, Airbus (and The COVID-19 downturn will be brutal. But if Airbus We've been creating exceptional solutions since 1953. predecessor EADS) defense programs were all about prioritizes long-term outcomes, it will come out of it IAI offers tailored interconnected and interoperable solutions within and across domains. to hit their stride. The A400M transport, Eurofighter/ stronger than ever. c Leap into the future together with us. Typhoon, Tiger and NH90 helicopters and others had promising futures. Today, these platforms are winding Contributing columnist Richard Aboulafia is vice president of www.iai.co.il • [email protected] down, with dwindling backlogs. analysis at Teal Group. He is based in Washington.

10 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMENTARY GOING CONCERNS MICHAEL BRUNO

LEAVE IT TO A SILICON VALLEY Indeed, research continues to show the top tiers of software startup to try to puncture the the defense industry to be a nearly impenetrable cadre doom and gloom of today’s aerospace that is shrinking. Since fiscal 2015, the total number of and defense markets with a ray of hope: prime vendors doing business with the Defense De- Palantir, the big-data cruncher for the U.S. military and partment has fallen 15%, while the number of new intelligence community, expects to go public in a stock prime vendors has dropped 16%, according to a 2019 offering, according to a recent regulatory filing. report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies. At the same time, and despite a multiyear rebound in Pentagon spending, defense contract obliga- Status Quo tions awarded to the Big Five primes increased 32%. “These trends, particularly the continued decline Why the Old Guard should in number of new entrants, are troublesome, as the not fear the new upstarts Defense Department and the National Defense Strat- egy emphasize the National Security Innovation Base Too bad it means nothing when it comes to chang- and try to attract nontraditional defense companies ing the sclerotic, government-dependent defense in- to do business with the Defense Department,” the dustrial base. think tank said. For certain, Palantir is making waves, and not just The COVID-19 crisis is only expected to make it because it is a rare new entrant to the clubby defense worse. Large pure-plays should come through the pan- contracting world—where libraries of regulations, de- demic relatively unscathed but may see lower spending cades-long vendor locks and revolving-door relationships make for almost insurmountable Pentagon Prime Vendors Continue Fall-Off barriers against outside competitors. Early 80,000 Legacy Vendor last decade, Palantir fought its way onto the 70,000 U.S. Army’s Distributed Common Ground Sys- 60,000 tem despite reluctance from service leaders at 50,000 the time and quiet congressional lobbying from 40,000 New Entrant established defense primes. 30,000

The company is backed in part by Peter Count Vendor 20,000 Thiel, who started PayPal with Elon Musk and who has differentiated himself from other tech 10,000 0 titans by publicly endorsing President Donald 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Trump’s reelection campaign. In the guise of a Fiscal Year prospectus for potential stock investors, Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies Palantir made what amounted to a public oath Source: SS of allegiance to government customers. The move growth outlooks, according to Capital Alpha Partners helped gloss over disclosures that Palantir—with defense analyst Byron Callan. Mergers and acquisi- $3 billion in venture capital along with annual reve- tions will become an even more important corporate nue—has not been profitable in its 17-year history and tool for delivering growth in 2021-25 and will further lost $590 million last year alone. concentrate the sector. There are other challenges. As AllianceBernstein “One factor that has struck us is the stability among analysts noted Aug. 25, Palantir still is small relative to defense contractors over the past 5-10 years,” he said the major government information technology contrac- in August. “With the exception of SpaceX, there has tors such as Leidos and General Dynamics Information not been a new entrant that has scaled to multi-hun- Technology. Plus other large defense contractors tend dred million dollars in annual sales.” to have operating margins in the high-single-digit range But do Palantir, SpaceX and Anduril represent a and valuations of just about 1x sales—far below the multi- new wave of entrants? Probably not. In a recent let- ples that investors expect from software companies. ter to defense officials published in DefenseNews, sev- Still, Palantir, Musk’s SpaceX and Thiel-supported An- eral venture capital leaders bemoaned how govern- duril—another Silicon Valley startup that aims to marry ment, with all its actions to date, seems eager to rally artificial intelligence, UAVs and sensors for government around its legacy primes. customers and which in July unveiled a $200 million Se- “We need new entrants into the defense indus- ries C round of new funding—certainly are attention-get- try more than ever, but without government support ting newcomers to the government contracting arena. through crises like this one, the talent and capital sim- But all three have yet to pass the test of time as going ply won’t be there,” they wrote. “If we see the same concerns—a key feature in a sector where government old story of the government claiming to support small programs can run half a century, like the B-52—let alone businesses but prioritizing its old incumbents, those as indicators of new competition in defense acquisition. investment dollars will disappear.” c

12 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMENTARY GOING CONCERNS Enabling the Extraordinary MICHAEL BRUNO To Fly To Power To Live

LEAVE IT TO A SILICON VALLEY Indeed, research continues to show the top tiers of software startup to try to puncture the the defense industry to be a nearly impenetrable cadre doom and gloom of today’s aerospace that is shrinking. Since fiscal 2015, the total number of and defense markets with a ray of hope: prime vendors doing business with the Defense De- Palantir, the big-data cruncher for the U.S. military and partment has fallen 15%, while the number of new intelligence community, expects to go public in a stock prime vendors has dropped 16%, according to a 2019 offering, according to a recent regulatory filing. report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies. At the same time, and despite a multiyear rebound in Pentagon spending, defense contract obliga- Status Quo tions awarded to the Big Five primes increased 32%. “These trends, particularly the continued decline Why the Old Guard should in number of new entrants, are troublesome, as the not fear the new upstarts Defense Department and the National Defense Strat- egy emphasize the National Security Innovation Base Too bad it means nothing when it comes to chang- and try to attract nontraditional defense companies ing the sclerotic, government-dependent defense in- to do business with the Defense Department,” the dustrial base. think tank said. For certain, Palantir is making waves, and not just The COVID-19 crisis is only expected to make it because it is a rare new entrant to the clubby defense worse. Large pure-plays should come through the pan- contracting world—where libraries of regulations, de- demic relatively unscathed but may see lower spending cades-long vendor locks and revolving-door relationships make for almost insurmountable Pentagon Prime Vendors Continue Fall-Off barriers against outside competitors. Early 80,000 Legacy Vendor last decade, Palantir fought its way onto the 70,000 U.S. Army’s Distributed Common Ground Sys- 60,000 EXTREME tem despite reluctance from service leaders at 50,000 the time and quiet congressional lobbying from 40,000 New Entrant established defense primes. 30,000

The company is backed in part by Peter Count Vendor 20,000 Thiel, who started PayPal with Elon Musk and 10,000 who has differentiated himself from other tech Around the globe, military and aerospace systems titans by publicly endorsing President Donald 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Advanced thermal designers have turned to Meggitt to help them Trump’s reelection campaign. In the guise of a Fiscal Year prospectus for potential stock investors, meet thermal and power management challenges Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies management for extreme Palantir made what amounted to a public oath Source: SS with compact, lightweight, and efficient vapor cycle of allegiance to government customers. The move growth outlooks, according to Capital Alpha Partners systems, liquid cooling systems and components helped gloss over disclosures that Palantir—with defense analyst Byron Callan. Mergers and acquisi- military environments $3 billion in venture capital along with annual reve- tions will become an even more important corporate including fans, pumps and compressors. nue—has not been profitable in its 17-year history and tool for delivering growth in 2021-25 and will further lost $590 million last year alone. concentrate the sector. Meggitt has developed cooling solutions for the most There are other challenges. As AllianceBernstein “One factor that has struck us is the stability among challenging flight conditions, missions, and extreme analysts noted Aug. 25, Palantir still is small relative to defense contractors over the past 5-10 years,” he said the major government information technology contrac- in August. “With the exception of SpaceX, there has environments. From low supersonic flight, to high tors such as Leidos and General Dynamics Information not been a new entrant that has scaled to multi-hun- hot wet hover, to desert and arctic operations, our Technology. Plus other large defense contractors tend dred million dollars in annual sales.” thermal management solutions are proven and ready to have operating margins in the high-single-digit range But do Palantir, SpaceX and Anduril represent a to meet the challenge of the more electronic platform and valuations of just about 1x sales—far below the multi- new wave of entrants? Probably not. In a recent let- ples that investors expect from software companies. ter to defense officials published in DefenseNews, sev- and battlefield. Still, Palantir, Musk’s SpaceX and Thiel-supported An- eral venture capital leaders bemoaned how govern- duril—another Silicon Valley startup that aims to marry ment, with all its actions to date, seems eager to rally Tel: +1 949 465 7700 artificial intelligence, UAVs and sensors for government around its legacy primes. customers and which in July unveiled a $200 million Se- “We need new entrants into the defense indus- E-mail: [email protected] ries C round of new funding—certainly are attention-get- try more than ever, but without government support ting newcomers to the government contracting arena. through crises like this one, the talent and capital sim- But all three have yet to pass the test of time as going ply won’t be there,” they wrote. “If we see the same www.meggittdefense.com concerns—a key feature in a sector where government old story of the government claiming to support small programs can run half a century, like the B-52—let alone businesses but prioritizing its old incumbents, those as indicators of new competition in defense acquisition. investment dollars will disappear.” c

12 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMENTARY LEADING EDGE GRAHAM WARWICK

BARELY 20 YEARS AGO, PIPISTREL fl ight experience back to the two-seat Taurus Electro of was a virtual unknown in the aviation in- 2007. “How to do it? Fly, fl y and fl y more,” he says. dustry, a tiny Slovenian manufacturer of In ground testing on an iron bird, all elements of the small ultralight aircraft. In June, the pri- power train operate at the same electrical potential be- vately held company entered the history books when it cause the system is connected to the Earth. “When you received the fi rst internationally recognized type certif- fl y, there’s no cable to the ground,” Tomazic says. “Almost icate for an electric aircraft. by defi nition, the components will be fl oating in voltage. European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) cer- If you don’t make sure they all operate at the same po- tifi cation for the Velis Electro two-seat trainer—and tential, you may see interesting things going on.” its in-house-developed electric engine and battery sys- Other issues relate to electromagnetic interference and tem—was not the fi rst aviation milestone for Pipistrel. cable routing and can range from “some interesting In 2007, its one-o , dual-fuselage Taurus G4 won NASA’s ringing and singing in the radios” to spurious cockpit indi- Green Flight Challenge ; the battery-powered four-seater cations from the air data computers, he says. “You learn exceeded the equivalent of 400 mpg per passenger. a lot about the placement of AC cables between the power electronics and the motor, because those are kilowatt- Electric Experience level antennas—very exciting things,” Tomazic notes. Vision of clean, quiet aviation drives Slovenian manufacturer

The most popular misconception about electric aircraft that Pipistrel has encountered? That an aircraft needs 4-hr. fl ight endurance to be useful, far beyond the capability of today’s batteries. The Velis Electro can fl y a 50-min. IISR tra c-pattern training mission. “Just because you can Pipistrel followed up in 2014 with the WattsUp, a proof- fl y for half an hour or an hour doesn’t render this aircraft of-concept electric trainer that started its journey toward useless,” Tomazic says. “ It could be very useful.” the Velis Electro. Along the way, German aerospace cen- Pipistrel is not stopping at the Velis Electro. The ter DLR modifi ed the Taurus G4 into the Hy4, which in company is leading Europe’s Mahepa project, which is 2016 became the fi rst four-seater to fl y on hydrogen fuel- developing a hybrid-electric propulsion architecture us- cell propulsion. That same year, Pipistrel ground-tested ing modular components. This will fl y with fuel cells in a 200-kW serial hybrid-electric power train. the Hy4, and batteries and a combustion engine in the All this experience proved invaluable in gaining Panthera. Under Mahepa, Pipistrel is studying scaling EASA approval for not only the Velis Electro but also the system up to a 19-seat commuter aircraft. a complete licensing, operating and maintenance eco- The company also has announced its next aircraft: It system around the aircraft that allows buyers to begin is an electric vertical-takeo -and-landing (eVTOL) type training immediately. “We ship the airplane with the and a departure from the more than 2,000 light aircraft it charger as well,” notes Tine Tomazic, Pipistrel group has built to date. But it is not an urban air taxi for Uber, chief technology o cer. as expected. It is the Nuuva family of hybrid-electric un- “Why do we do it?” he asks , referring to electric pro- manned cargo aircraft. With a 1,700-kg (3,750-lb.) maxi- pulsion. The answer is cost: The energy cost of fl ying the mum takeo weight and 13.2-m (43.3-ft.) span, the V300 Velis Electro is just €0.9 ($1.06 ) per hour. That compares is designed to carry a 300-kg payload 300 km (185 mi.) at with $40-60 per hour in avgas to fl y a popular piston- 165 kt. The 6-m-span, 100-kg V20 will carry up to 16 kg. powered trainer such as the Cessna 172. Factoring in The company slowed work on its Uber design to ac- battery replacement takes the Velis Electro to €17 per celerate development of the unmanned cargo aircraft, hour, but even its total operating cost of €33 per hour is arguing regulatory and other constraints could delay a fraction of the $150-200 per hour for a 172. entry into service of eVTOL air taxis to 2028. The V300 Pipistrel has learned much by bringing the Velis Elec- is planned to enter service in 2023, but deliveries of the tro to market and hopes its EASA certifi cation “will cre- V20 could begin as early as 2021. Pipistrel says the sim- ate good precedents for other applicants in the pipeline,” ple, reliable Nuuva will be able to operate from standard Tomazic says. One key has been Pipistrel’s electrifi ed helipads at a fraction of the cost of a helicopter. c

1 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMENTARY LEADING EDGE GRAHAM WARWICK

BARELY 20 YEARS AGO, PIPISTREL fl ight experience back to the two-seat Taurus Electro of was a virtual unknown in the aviation in- 2007. “How to do it? Fly, fl y and fl y more,” he says. dustry, a tiny Slovenian manufacturer of In ground testing on an iron bird, all elements of the small ultralight aircraft. In June, the pri- power train operate at the same electrical potential be- PW800 vately held company entered the history books when it cause the system is connected to the Earth. “When you received the fi rst internationally recognized type certif- fl y, there’s no cable to the ground,” Tomazic says. “Almost icate for an electric aircraft. by defi nition, the components will be fl oating in voltage. A LEGENDARY BOMBER. European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) cer- If you don’t make sure they all operate at the same po- tifi cation for the Velis Electro two-seat trainer—and tential, you may see interesting things going on.” its in-house-developed electric engine and battery sys- Other issues relate to electromagnetic interference and AND THE ENGINE THAT TAKES IT FURTHER. tem—was not the fi rst aviation milestone for Pipistrel. cable routing and can range from “some interesting In 2007, its one-o , dual-fuselage Taurus G4 won NASA’s ringing and singing in the radios” to spurious cockpit indi- FOR THE USAF AND THE B-52, THE FUTURE BEGINS NOW. Green Flight Challenge ; the battery-powered four-seater cations from the air data computers, he says. “You learn exceeded the equivalent of 400 mpg per passenger. a lot about the placement of AC cables between the power Pratt & Whitney’s revolutionary PW800 changes the game for the United States Air Force — and creates new possibilities electronics and the motor, because those are kilowatt- for what its B-52 can accomplish. With unmatched fuel efficiency — and significantly lower maintenance costs — level antennas—very exciting things,” Tomazic notes. the PW800 will take the B-52’s capabilities to new heights for decades to come. Electric Experience Vision of clean, quiet aviation drives EXPLORE THE FUTURE OF FLIGHT AT PRATTWHITNEY.COM/B52 Slovenian manufacturer

1 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMENTARY THE LAUNCHPAD IRENE KLOTZ

MANY OF US HAVE BEEN EXCLUDED Panel member Charles Bolden, another former astro- —or worse—at some point in our lives due naut who served as NASA’s administrator from 2009 to skin color, gender, sexual orientation, size, to 2017, grew up in the segregated South of the 1950s religion, family pecking order, etc. We’re under the specter of lynchings. also, unknowingly or otherwise, part of the problem. Years later at the U.S. Naval Academy, Bolden faced In an effort to raise awareness of discrimina - another form of racism. “The assumption was because tion and to stem racist practices and proclivities, I was black that I couldn’t swim,” he says. “I was a ExploreMars.org devoted an opening day panel of its competitive swimmer all my life, so I was a damn good Aug. 31-Sept. 2 Humans To Mars (H2M) summit to the swimmer. It was always funny, because the instruc- topic of race, an event held virtually this year due to the tors would see [me] get in the pool and they’d go get COVID-19 pandemic. the shepherd’s crook For many of us, because they thought including staff and Jettisoning Racism they were going to management of this have to pull me out.” magazine, our virtual As his career pro- workplaces have be- gressed, Bolden found come a fruitful ground that “the higher you for new discussions get in rank, the more about increasing di- subtle” the racism versity and combating and discrimination racism. We all have became—dogging skin in the game, so him all the way into to speak. the NASA adminis- The takeaway from trator’s office. the H2M panel, mod- Helpfully, panel erated by Lockheed member Danielle Martin’s J.R Edwards Wood, director of the and planetary scien- EXPLOREMARS.ORG Space Enabled re- tist Sian Proctor with Mars exploration advocates search group at the Arizona’s Maricopa tackle diversity and inclusion Massachusetts Insti- Community College tute of Technology’s District, is that our future on Mars will be deter- Media Lab, provided a two-book reading list: Home mined by who we resolve to be on Earth today, notes from Nnedi Okorafor’s spacefaring science fiction series, ExploreMars President Janet Ivey. Binti, and How To Be An Antiracist by Boston University’s “I remember when I was in high school I was in the Ibram Kendi. car with my girlfriend, and a police officer rolled up on “I am a space engineer, but my goal is actually to us,” recalled panel member Leland Melvin, a former develop research abilities to combine antiracism with NASA astronaut and retired National Football League our space engineering research so that all of us could wide receiver. “He took her out of the car and told her then ask ourselves: What am I doing in my job—any that I was raping her because he wanted me to go to job you might have in the space community, anything jail,” Melvin said. “You know, when young black men get you’re designing or building or leading—to be antiracist into the prison system, they really never get out. They while I do it?” Wood says. never have a second chance. “It simply means asking two questions,” she con- “Every father in the black community has a conver- tinues. “Am I bringing anything from the history of sation with their son to tell them that if you get stopped racist ideas and policies in the U.S. and repeating by an officer, you assume the position, which is ‘10 and those in my work? And second: When I evaluate the two’ [hands on the wheel]. You’re very respectful . . . outcomes of my work—whether it’s a communications all these things. system, a hardware system or an event—who is ben- “I’ve been to space two times. I’ve ridden this rocket efiting, and are people from different racial groups with millions of pounds of thrust, and not once was I benefiting, equally?” afraid going to space,” Melvin says. “It’s when I’ve been And the last word goes to NASA’s Camille Alleyne, stopped by police officers I didn’t even know that I was deputy manager of the Commerical Lunar Payload starting to sweat and was holding the steering wheel Services program at the Johnson Space Center in really hard. Houston, who counsels: Always show up as your most “People have to ensure two things,” he adds. “Make authentic self. sure they’re not part of the problem . . . and [decide] You can view the entire panel discussion, “Celebrat- what are they doing to help—being antiracist versus ing Black Lives in the Space Industry: An Exchange of not a racist.” Leadership Stories and Experiences,” on YouTube. c

16 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMENTARY

THE LAUNCHPAD Innovation in Miniature IRENE KLOTZ

MANY OF US HAVE BEEN EXCLUDED Panel member Charles Bolden, another former astro- —or worse—at some point in our lives due naut who served as NASA’s administrator from 2009 to skin color, gender, sexual orientation, size, to 2017, grew up in the segregated South of the 1950s WHEN IT COMES TO PERFORMANCE, religion, family pecking order, etc. We’re under the specter of lynchings. also, unknowingly or otherwise, part of the problem. Years later at the U.S. Naval Academy, Bolden faced In an effort to raise awareness of discrimina - another form of racism. “The assumption was because WE’RE YOUR WINGMAN. tion and to stem racist practices and proclivities, I was black that I couldn’t swim,” he says. “I was a ExploreMars.org devoted an opening day panel of its competitive swimmer all my life, so I was a damn good Aug. 31-Sept. 2 Humans To Mars (H2M) summit to the swimmer. It was always funny, because the instruc- topic of race, an event held virtually this year due to the tors would see [me] get in the pool and they’d go get COVID-19 pandemic. the shepherd’s crook For many of us, because they thought including staff and Jettisoning Racism they were going to management of this have to pull me out.” magazine, our virtual As his career pro- workplaces have be- gressed, Bolden found PEACE OF MIND, SINCE 1948. come a fruitful ground that “the higher you Count on The Lee Company for relentless support and for new discussions get in rank, the more about increasing di- subtle” the racism unsurpassed reliability. That’s been our approach for versity and combating and discrimination racism. We all have became—dogging over 70 years, which has placed our field-proven skin in the game, so him all the way into Microhydraulic fluid control components on to speak. the NASA adminis- The takeaway from trator’s office. board every military and commercial aircraft the H2M panel, mod- Helpfully, panel flying today. So, whether you need a erated by Lockheed member Danielle Martin’s J.R Edwards Wood, director of the standard or custom-engineered solution, EXPLOREMARS.ORG and planetary scien- Space Enabled re- choose The Lee Company and relax. tist Sian Proctor with Mars exploration advocates search group at the Arizona’s Maricopa tackle diversity and inclusion Massachusetts Insti- We’ve got your back. Community College tute of Technology’s District, is that our future on Mars will be deter- Media Lab, provided a two-book reading list: Home mined by who we resolve to be on Earth today, notes from Nnedi Okorafor’s spacefaring science fiction series, ExploreMars President Janet Ivey. Binti, and How To Be An Antiracist by Boston University’s “I remember when I was in high school I was in the Ibram Kendi. car with my girlfriend, and a police officer rolled up on “I am a space engineer, but my goal is actually to us,” recalled panel member Leland Melvin, a former develop research abilities to combine antiracism with NASA astronaut and retired National Football League our space engineering research so that all of us could wide receiver. “He took her out of the car and told her then ask ourselves: What am I doing in my job—any that I was raping her because he wanted me to go to job you might have in the space community, anything jail,” Melvin said. “You know, when young black men get you’re designing or building or leading—to be antiracist into the prison system, they really never get out. They while I do it?” Wood says. never have a second chance. “It simply means asking two questions,” she con- “Every father in the black community has a conver- tinues. “Am I bringing anything from the history of sation with their son to tell them that if you get stopped racist ideas and policies in the U.S. and repeating by an officer, you assume the position, which is ‘10 and those in my work? And second: When I evaluate the Your Microhydraulics Flight Manual. two’ [hands on the wheel]. You’re very respectful . . . outcomes of my work—whether it’s a communications The Lee Technical Hydraulic Handbook all these things. system, a hardware system or an event—who is ben- has, for decades, served as the industry- “I’ve been to space two times. I’ve ridden this rocket efiting, and are people from different racial groups standard engineering reference for hydraulic with millions of pounds of thrust, and not once was I benefiting, equally?” components. Request your free copy today at afraid going to space,” Melvin says. “It’s when I’ve been And the last word goes to NASA’s Camille Alleyne, www.theleeco.com/new-hydraulic-handbook stopped by police officers I didn’t even know that I was deputy manager of the Commerical Lunar Payload starting to sweat and was holding the steering wheel Services program at the Johnson Space Center in really hard. Houston, who counsels: Always show up as your most “People have to ensure two things,” he adds. “Make authentic self. The Lee Company 860-399-6281 • www.TheLeeCo.com sure they’re not part of the problem . . . and [decide] You can view the entire panel discussion, “Celebrat- W E S T B R O O K • L O N D O N • P A R I S • F R A N K F U R T • M I L A N • S T O C K H O L M what are they doing to help—being antiracist versus ing Black Lives in the Space Industry: An Exchange of not a racist.” Leadership Stories and Experiences,” on YouTube. c

16 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMERCIAL AVIATION > 787 quality misses p. 22 Asia airline recovery p. 24 European airline crisis p. 26 REALITY BITES > MORE AIRCRAFT > AVIATION WEEK DATA > MARKET CONTRACTS PRODUCTION CUTS SUGGESTS 16,000 BY 30% COMPARED TO LOOM, ANALYSTS SAY DELIVERIES IN 10 YEARS PREVIOUS FORECASTS

Annual Commercial Aircraft Deliveries 2015-30 Aircraft 2,000 Projected 1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Source: ao ee oercal ao lee a oreca

Source: ao ee oercal ao lee a oreca Jens Flottau Frankfurt and Sean Broderick and Michael Bruno Washington

ix months after commercial aero- Some big-picture perspective is needed to recap where the industry is. Twenty-nineteen was the last year in what space entered its worst-ever crisis, was called a super-cycle. Airlines in the U.S. in particular more data on tra c trends is becom- fi nally found ways to generate good profi t margins —so good ing available, and analysts are begin- that American Airlines CEO Doug Parker predicted they S would never su er a loss again. Tra c growth fl attened and ning to better understand what the near- and overall airline profi ts declined toward the end of the last long-term outlooks are for commercial aircraft decade, but times were still really good. production. New Aviation Week Intelligence Aircraft manufacturers believed in a never-ending growth Network data suggests demand will be down cycle, too. Airbus at one point talked about monthly single-aisle production in excess of 70 aircraft. Boeing was chas- around 30% over the next 10 years compared ing its rival, only to be held back by the grounding of the 737 to previous assumptions. The more worrying MAX, angering customers that complained the OEM was near-term threat is that OEMs have not yet cut destroying network expansion and profi ts at a time when more capacity was needed. production enough and will have to decide on There is an argument that pre-COVID-19 production plan- more reductions quickly. ning was too optimistic, even if the good times had persisted.

1 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMERCIAL AVIATION > 787 quality misses p. 22 Asia airline recovery p. 24 European airline crisis p. 26

In its 2019 global market forecast (GMF), Airbus projected Commercial Aircraft Deliveries a demand for 39,000 new aircraft over the next 20 years, by Aircraft Type, 2021-30 while Boeing saw a market for 44,000 units. If Airbus’ projection had been accurate, the industry as a whole could Turboprop REALITY BITES have produced an average of 1,970 aircraft with more than Regional Jet 100 seats annually until 2038. But in 2019, Airbus and Boeing 6% > MORE AIRCRAFT > AVIATION WEEK DATA > MARKET CONTRACTS alone would have already ended up close to 1,900 aircraft had 7% PRODUCTION CUTS SUGGESTS 16,000 BY 30% COMPARED TO MAX deliveries continued as planned. Taking the GMF into account, there was already no more room for any growth be- LOOM, ANALYSTS SAY DELIVERIES IN 10 YEARS PREVIOUS FORECASTS yond last year’s rates. And there was hardly any room left for existing or emerging competitors such as Embraer, Comac Widebody 16% or United Aircraft Corp. (UAC) that would surely take a Narrowbody Annual Commercial Aircraft Deliveries share of the large regional/small narrowbody demand—or 71% more painful for Boeing and Airbus, the domestic China and 2015-30 Russia markets. Aircraft Going into the COVID-19 outbreak, the thinking was still 2,000 that there would be a relatively short-term dip through Projected which narrowbody deliveries could be sustained at a rela- 1,800 tively high rate. That rate would have even allowed Boeing to resume some level of MAX deliveries from the end of this year or when regulators unground the aircraft. The target Source: Aviation Week 2021 Commercial Aviation Fleet and MRO Forecast 1,600 OEMs had in mind was to reach the level of production they were used to as quickly as possible. Only a few weeks ago, too high relative to deliveries,” they said. “This is particularly 1,400 Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury was still dreaming of a steep an issue for Airbus, which intends to produce 40 A320neos rise in narrowbody deliveries from 2022, which admittedly per month through 2021. Airbus was able to deliver those 1,200 could still happen if things go exceptionally well. But the in July, but weSource: do Aviation not Week believe 2021 Commercial that Aviation rate Fleet can and MRO be Forecast sustained. It sentiment from most analysts has now changed. The sum- is an issue for Boeing and Airbus on widebodies, [as both] mer, as illustrated by the July traffic figures released by the are already delivering far fewer airplanes than they are pro- 1,000 International Air Transport Association (IATA), continues ducing. If one expects a global resolution of COVID issues to be disappointing. Global air travel is still down 80% from in 2021 that could change the outlook. But we see the odds 800 last year, and long-haul international travel is hardly exis- as against that.” tent as most countries keep some form of travel restrictions Agency Partners analyst Sash Tusa wrote to clients: “We 600 in place. remain very surprised that, given an arguably weakening The outlook for the fall and winter, low seasons even in COVID-19 backdrop, and impending oversupply as Boeing economic booms, is so frightening that IATA Director Gen- restarts 737 MAX deliveries, Airbus should even be talking 400 eral and CEO Alexandre de Juniac is now calling for a second about raising production rates, let alone from as early as round of government bailouts: “The initial round of mea- the second half of 2021. We suspect that Airbus and Boeing 200 sures will need to be topped up, and the debt burden cannot are now playing a potentially damaging game of chicken: be increased,” he said. According to IATA, governments have Neither will cut rates until airlines agree to pay the costs of 0 pumped around $120 billion into the airline sector globally the deferrals, especially since premature cuts might cede 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 to avoid financial collapse. deliveries share to the competitor.” “If airline passenger volumes don’t start to improve Airbus so far cut rates for the A320neo family from 60 Source: ao ee oercal ao lee a oreca meaningfully in 2021, we are likely to see further aircraft to 40 aircraft per month, for the A350 from 10 to five, and Source: ao ee oercal ao lee a oreca production rate cuts,” writes Jonathan Root, senior vice for the A330neo from five to around two. But Tusa argues Jens Flottau Frankfurt and Sean Broderick and Michael Bruno Washington president at Moody’s Investors Service. Large commercial more painful reductions have to be made. He predicts that aircraft production will be around 30-40% lower than 2019 A320neo rates will shrink to 24 aircraft per month in 2021, ix months after commercial aero- Some big-picture perspective is needed to recap where levels in 2021. New-aircraft build rates will partially depend while A220 output will go from four per month in 2019 to two, the industry is. Twenty-nineteen was the last year in what on resumption of Boeing 737 MAX production, with manu- new-build A350 aircraft will be down to three, and A330neo space entered its worst-ever crisis, was called a super-cycle. Airlines in the U.S. in particular facturing volumes for other aircraft remaining flat or even production will drop to two. more data on tra c trends is becom- fi nally found ways to generate good profi t margins —so good declining, Root wrote in an Aug. 27 report. In 2025, Tusa expects Airbus to produce no more than 46 ing available, and analysts are begin- that American Airlines CEO Doug Parker predicted they The outlook from credit analyst Root matches what a A320neo family aircraft monthly, as well as six A350s, six S would never su er a loss again. Tra c growth fl attened and growing list of sell-side stock analysts are expecting. A trio A220s and three A330neos. ning to better understand what the near- and overall airline profi ts declined toward the end of the last of AllianceBernstein analysts told their investor clients on However, Charles Armitage, European Aerospace and De- long-term outlooks are for commercial aircraft decade, but times were still really good. Aug. 24 that they are not seeing substantial improvement fence analyst at Citi Research, has a different view. “What production. New Aviation Week Intelligence Aircraft manufacturers believed in a never-ending growth in prospects since a June industry report. Doug Harned, [Airbus] is doing is not stupid,” he says. “If you believe that Network data suggests demand will be down cycle, too. Airbus at one point talked about monthly sin- George Zhao and Caius Slater said they expect Airbus and 2,400 aircraft is the demand over the next four years, then it gle-aisle production in excess of 70 aircraft. Boeing was chas- Boeing to eventually deliver most airplanes currently in pro- is a sensible thing to do.” He argues that it is not very painful around 30% over the next 10 years compared ing its rival, only to be held back by the grounding of the 737 duction, as airlines have already paid in cash and the aircraft to build up inventory in a low-interest-rate environment be- to previous assumptions. The more worrying MAX, angering customers that complained the OEM was have been built for specific carriers. But they see risk rising cause it saves Airbus the difficulty of cutting back and then near-term threat is that OEMs have not yet cut destroying network expansion and profi ts at a time when later this year and into 2021, with airlines reluctant to put rebuilding in a few years and does not disrupt production more capacity was needed. more cash into progress payments. unduly. The question is whether the market will recover to production enough and will have to decide on There is an argument that pre-COVID-19 production plan- “Even with high replacement demand, which we expect, the expected level and when it will do so. “There are huge more reductions quickly. ning was too optimistic, even if the good times had persisted. production rate plans at Airbus and Boeing through 2023 are uncertainties,” Armitage says.

1 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 19 COMMERCIAL AVIATION

This factory-new Finnair Airbus much like to hand over to customers. Assuming regulators do A350 is one of thousands of not start granting MAX approv- aircraft currently stored. als much before late in the year, ES LOAAS however, an aggregate delivery How will we build a total of fewer than 1,000 new aircraft is a strong possibility. sustainable global space economy? If so, it would mark only the 10th time in the last three decades that air transport manufacturers jointly handed over fewer than 1,000 aircraft in a How will we maintain a calendar year—and the first time since 2006. Last year’s to- permanent off-world civilization? tal, held down by the MAX delivery halt that kept some 400 aircraft from entering service, was 1,425. The drop in deliveries and What international policies are needed to jump in both retirements and temporary removals will leave ensure the peaceful use of space for all? the year-end 2020 global fl eet of aircraft certifi ed for 19 or more Another twist comes from the opportunities for order seats on par with 2015’s fl eet size, underscoring the pandem- cancellation and deferral stemming from the MAX debacle. ic’s ramifi cations on global air tra§ c demand. “Earlier this year, we thought having 737 MAX exposure While retirements are on the rise, many stored aircraft was a liability for U.S. airlines, and in January we downgrad- are expected to rejoin operators’ fl eets to support demand ed Southwest Airlines on this,” Vertical Research Partners recovery. Aviation Week projects 2,100 aircraft returning wrote Aug. 19. “Now we view a MAX orderbook purely as a from long-term storage by 2023. source of fl eet optionality, a valuable asset when the demand The global fl eet is projected to grow at a compound annual outlook is less certain than ever.” growth rate of 2.4% in 2021-30, resulting in a fl eet of 38,300 What Vertical’s Rob Stallard, Karl Oehlschlaeger and aircraft, the forecast says. New deliveries will total 16,200 Darryl Genovesi mean is: Because Boeing has failed to meet during the decade—about 30% lower than prepandemic its contractual commitments, fi rm MAX orders have become estimates. options for airlines to take MAX deliveries “if and when they Widebody deliveries likely will total about 2,500 during see fi t.” Vertical’s forecast is that Boeing will deliver only the 10-year stretch, which is 42% below the prepandemic 45 MAXs this year and just 192 in 2021. That would equate forecast, refl ecting the slower expected return of long-haul to 53% of the currently parked MAX inventory, with the rest demand. Narrowbody deliveries will top 11,500—a 28% de- being delivered in 2022. cline compared to prepandemic calculations. Regional jets, “While this means that our 737 production forecast is already on the decline, thanks largely to upgauging trends, more elongated than Boeing’s plan of getting to 31 [aircraft are projected to account for 1,150 deliveries, or 38% less than Without answers, per] month in early 2022, we still think there is downward before the COVID-19 outbreak. risk to our estimates,” they add. “For airlines to be taking In other words, there is room for an annual average of we’re stuck on Earth. 16–18 November 2020 | Online these 237 new MAX aircraft in 2020-21 is dependent on [re- 1,150 narrowbody deliveries for the entire industry, 250 wide- certifi cation] timing, demand recovering, no further corona- bodies and 115 large regional jets. In 2018, Airbus and Boeing virus waves, and no additional trade war fl are-ups.” combined delivered 1,225 narrowbodies (and only 816 in 2019 To solve problems, do business, and work together to According to the Aviation Week Intelligence Network fore- because of the MAX grounding). The two OEMs handed answer important questions like these, join the smartest cast, the active global air transport fl eet will be 10% smaller over 380 widebodies in 2018 and 426 last year, showing the and most ambitious leaders from around the world at the end of 2020, compared to a year earlier, thanks to a degree of contraction that is needed to adjust to the new 16-18 November 2020 at ASCEND, online. Save 25% Now blend of retirements, temporary storage and a precipitous demand level. drop in deliveries. Looking further ahead, lower demand Airlines will permanently retire nearly 9,200 aircraft This international event is designed to deliver technical coming out of the novel coronavirus pandemic will reduce during the decade, the Aviation Week forecast shows. Cal- and non-technical content in a highly interactive format. ascend.events new-aircraft deliveries 30% in the decade ahead compared endar-year peaks are projected to come in 2028 and 2029, Join representatives from 550 leading organizations to pre-downturn projections. with each year expected to see more than 1,000 retirements. in the space ecosystem for 90 technical sessions, 30 Global passenger and cargo carriers will have 27,300 air- The average of 920 retirements per year during the com- workshops, 4 keynotes and networking. Don’t miss out. Powered by craft in service on Dec. 31, down from 30,500 at the start of ing decade is a notable jump over recent fi gures. Aviation the year, the revised fi gures show. The net decline of 3,200 Week data shows that annual retirements in 2015-19 aver- aircraft includes a projected 720 retirements, or 2.4% of the aged 657 before climbing to a projected 720 in 2020, in part active fl eet. due to the pandemic’s fallout. c Deliveries this year are projected to total just 895 aircraft. The timing of the Boeing 737 MAX return-to-service approv- Aviation Week editors discuss why Airbus and als could a£ ect this number, as the manufacturer has more Boeing will need to further trim output to ride out the than 450 built MAXs sitting in storage that it would very COVID-19 crisis: INAUGURAL CORNERSTONE FOUNDING SPONSOR

AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMERCIAL AVIATION

Two issues affecting Boeing 787 rear fuselage sections were introduced during production in Boeing’s Charleston, South Carolina, facility.

SEAN BRODERICK/AW&ST New 787 Problems Boeing determined eight 787s have both defects, which together make those aircraft susceptible to structural fail- Spotlight Boeing’s ure at loads they are designed and certified to withstand. This prompted Boeing to tell affected operators to ground Quality Issues the aircraft for immediate inspection and likely repairs that will take at least two weeks per airframe. The fuselage production issues were first reported by The Air Current. AIRCRAFT-MAKER CONFIRMS THREE NEW > The third issue came from stabilizer parts that were not 787 PRODUCTION ISSUES assembled per Boeing’s design specifications. While there is HUNDREDS OF AIRCRAFT COULD BE AFFECTED no immediate risk, premature aging of affected parts could > require in-service repairs. The manufacturer declines to say how many of the 980 Sean Broderick Washington and Guy Norris Los Angeles 787s built so far have one of the defects. A source with knowledge of the issue confirms that “many” airframes are roduction mistakes on scores of Boeing 787s will in- affected, while a second industry source says the figure is tensify scrutiny of the manufacturer’s quality- control “several hundred.” Boeing acknowledges there are three Pcapability and could place it in violation of a 2015 issues but declines to discuss their scope. agreement with the FAA triggered by other manufacturing “Boeing has identified two distinct manufacturing issues problems, including some on the 787 program. in the join of certain 787 aft body fuselage sections, which, Boeing has discovered two seemingly unrelated defects in combination, result in a condition that does not meet introduced in composite fuselage sections during 787 pro- our design standards,” the company says. The issues were duction and a third in the aircraft’s horizontal stabilizers. discovered during a “regular” production-system audit “as One fuselage issue involves shims, or material added during part of our quality management system,” Boeing says. assembly to fill gaps between structures or adjust how piec- The FAA confirmed it is “investigating manufacturing es fit together to ensure tolerances are met. flaws affecting certain Boeing 787 jetliners,” adding that it The composite material that makes up the 787 fuselage is “too early to speculate about the nature or extent of any is extremely stiff when cured. Achieving the correct corner proposed airworthiness directives that might arise from angle between the cured part and final shape is hard to the agency’s investigation.” control, so shimming is used to make parts of the 787 fuse- The stabilizer issue, uncovered in an internal audit this lage sections mate together. In some 787s, Boeing found the year, affects subassemblies produced at a Boeing facility in shims are not the correct size. Salt Lake City. The second defect is an out-of-tolerance problem with the Certain parts were assembled with greater force than fuselage’s inner mold line. The defect areas exceed Boeing’s specified in Boeing’s build documents, resulting in larger- 0.005-in. tolerance limit for flatness, the source says. than-specified gaps between certain pieces, the company

22 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMERCIAL AVIATION

Boeing 787 Deliveries, 2020 The new fuselage defects affect the join between the 787’s two composite aft fuselage sections, known as Section 47, 12 which is pressurized, and Section 48, which is unpressur- 11 ized and supports the empennage, or tail, section. Both sections are made in Boeing’s Charleston, South Carolina, manufacturing facility, which it purchased from Vought Air- Total craft in 2009. The sections are then joined and moved to one of the two 787 final assembly lines—either in Charleston, 6 42 which assembles all 787 variants, or in Everett, Washington, which assembles 787-8s and 787-9s. 4 4 Boeing has dealt with 787 fuselage-shimming problems in 3 the past. A 2014 FAA review of 787 design, certification and 2 manufacturing states that Boeing “identified a significantly higher number of nonconformances related to shimming as 0 compared to other fuselage sections” with similar design features. “Aft fuselage shimming issues were identified in April May June July production and in the full-scale fatigue test,” explains the March August January February report, prompted by overheating incidents of in-service lith- Source: Boeing ium-ion batteries that led to the fleet’s 123-day grounding says. The target maximum gap tolerance is 0.005 in., and in 2014. shims are used to fill in any extra space. Improper gap ver- Although most of the shim problems were found and Two issues affecting Boeing 787 rear ification can lead to shims that are the wrong size. corrected before delivery, five aircraft entered service with fuselage sections were introduced While there is no immediate safety threat, Boeing says one “potentially discrepant shims,” leading Boeing to issue an during production in Boeing’s ramification could be more rapid aging of the affected parts. alert service bulletin to ensure they were fixed. Charleston, South Carolina, facility. Boeing and the FAA are analyzing the in-service fleet for Word of new, extensive production issues expands on potential action. The manufacturer said it has addressed the issue in its production process. SEAN BRODERICK/AW&ST One near-term ramification has been a Boeing is evaluating the in-service slowdown in deliveries. Boeing is producing 10 787 fleet for possible repairs. New 787 Problems Boeing determined eight 787s have both defects, which 787s per month, but after handing over 29 in together make those aircraft susceptible to structural fail- the first three months of 2020, it delivered only Spotlight Boeing’s ure at loads they are designed and certified to withstand. 13 in the five months ended Aug. 31, company This prompted Boeing to tell affected operators to ground figures show. Quality Issues the aircraft for immediate inspection and likely repairs that Part of the discrepancy is rework being done will take at least two weeks per airframe. The fuselage pro- on the widebodies that is delaying handovers to duction issues were first reported by The Air Current. customers, the company says. AIRCRAFT-MAKER CONFIRMS THREE NEW > The third issue came from stabilizer parts that were not The two fuselage issues are more urgent. Nei- 787 PRODUCTION ISSUES assembled per Boeing’s design specifications. While there is ther problem on its own creates an immediate HUNDREDS OF AIRCRAFT COULD BE AFFECTED no immediate risk, premature aging of affected parts could safety-of-flight issue, Boeing says. > require in-service repairs. “Individually, these issues, while not up to The manufacturer declines to say how many of the 980 specifications, still meet limit load conditions,” Sean Broderick Washington and Guy Norris Los Angeles 787s built so far have one of the defects. A source with or the maximum aerodynamic load the design is knowledge of the issue confirms that “many” airframes are expected to experience in service, Boeing says. roduction mistakes on scores of Boeing 787s will in- affected, while a second industry source says the figure is “No immediate action is required for the tensify scrutiny of the manufacturer’s quality- control “several hundred.” Boeing acknowledges there are three rest of the fleet,” the manufacturer adds. “We Pcapability and could place it in violation of a 2015 issues but declines to discuss their scope. are analyzing data on the in-service fleet to JOEPRIESAVIATION.NET agreement with the FAA triggered by other manufacturing “Boeing has identified two distinct manufacturing issues determine if action is required, poten tially including more a long-running series of quality-control deficiencies that problems, including some on the 787 program. in the join of certain 787 aft body fuselage sections, which, frequent inspection or rework. It could also be determined have affected several Boeing aircraft programs. In Decem- Boeing has discovered two seemingly unrelated defects in combination, result in a condition that does not meet that no further action is required if the condition is found ber 2015, Boeing and the FAA agreed to a settlement after introduced in composite fuselage sections during 787 pro- our design standards,” the company says. The issues were to not impact the longevity of the structure.” the agency dug into two main issues—using noncompliant duction and a third in the aircraft’s horizontal stabilizers. discovered during a “regular” production-system audit “as Half the 787’s airframe by weight consists of carbon-fi- fasteners and missing deadlines for providing instructions One fuselage issue involves shims, or material added during part of our quality management system,” Boeing says. ber-reinforced plastic and other composites, which was on the installation of fuel tank inerting systems. During the assembly to fill gaps between structures or adjust how piec- The FAA confirmed it is “investigating manufacturing groundbreaking at the time it entered production. Known FAA’s probe of those issues, 11 others came to light, includes fit together to ensure tolerances are met. flaws affecting certain Boeing 787 jetliners,” adding that it issues in a few hundred 787 fuselages in service could ing some “production quality-control problems,” the agency The composite material that makes up the 787 fuselage is “too early to speculate about the nature or extent of any provide some of the most comprehensive information to said in its 2015 announcement of the settlement. is extremely stiff when cured. Achieving the correct corner proposed airworthiness directives that might arise from date on how defects progress in pressurized composite One issue involved incorrectly installed 787 engine fuel angle between the cured part and final shape is hard to the agency’s investigation.” airframe structures. feed manifold couplings. Boeing found three problems control, so shimming is used to make parts of the 787 fuse- The stabilizer issue, uncovered in an internal audit this “Aluminum has been around [in airplane design] for 100 with coupling assemblies—incorrectly installed or missing lage sections mate together. In some 787s, Boeing found the year, affects subassemblies produced at a Boeing facility in years,” one veteran materials engineer and nondestructive O-rings, lock wires and fastener retaining rings. In Novem- shims are not the correct size. Salt Lake City. testing expert says. “We have a lot of experience with it. ber 2012, Boeing revealed that 38 of the first 787s built had The second defect is an out-of-tolerance problem with the Certain parts were assembled with greater force than Composite structures—we don’t have that history. There’s a at least one of the flaws, and 31 had all three. Fuel leaks on fuselage’s inner mold line. The defect areas exceed Boeing’s specified in Boeing’s build documents, resulting in larger- big learning curve . . . on these airframes. We can speculate, at least two in-service aircraft were traced to the problem, 0.005-in. tolerance limit for flatness, the source says. than-specified gaps between certain pieces, the company but we don’t know for sure.” prompting the FAA to issue an immediately effective air-

22 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 23 COMMERCIAL AVIATION

worthiness directive in December 2012. The 2014 report affected by process or design changes continue to conform cited “a lack of clarity and verification for certain fuel cou- to type design.” pling installation requirements” for the problems, adding The agreement’s “performance period” lasts through Jan- that they did not comply with Boeing’s quality management uary 2021. “In the event that BCA does not meet its commit- system. ments under this agreement, BCA and the FAA agree that Under the settlement agreement, Boeing agreed to pay BCA shall be subject to additional civil penalties up to $24 $12 million—half of what the FAA proposed—and commit to million,” states the agreement, made public following a 2017 a series of process improvements. Among them was using Freedom of Information Act request by The Seattle Times. a safety management system to “proactively seek continual Boeing’s latest 787 problems come as it grapples with process improvements and correct undesired conditions,” ongoing quality control issues on its KC-46 tanker and 737 the agreement says. It also requires Boeing Commercial MAX programs. In both cases, numerous instances of tools Airplanes (BCA) to “implement improvements to process- and other foreign object debris (FOD) left inside completed es to ensure that assembly installations that have been aircraft have drawn scrutiny and concern.

24 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMERCIAL AVIATION worthiness directive in December 2012. The 2014 report affected by process or design changes continue to conform The U.S. Air Force has halted deliveries of the 767-deriv- to the top of the company and ensuring aircraft are built cited “a lack of clarity and verification for certain fuel cou- to type design.” ative KC-46 multiple times due to FOD discovered during as designed. One emphasis is granting—many would say pling installation requirements” for the problems, adding The agreement’s “performance period” lasts through Jan- both routine production and nonroutine rework. The FOD returning—more influence to engineers, in part by reor- that they did not comply with Boeing’s quality management uary 2021. “In the event that BCA does not meet its commit- issue is one of several that has hampered the program. ganizing them out of business units and under one line system. ments under this agreement, BCA and the FAA agree that Boeing in recent months made changes to its 737 produc- of leadership. Under the settlement agreement, Boeing agreed to pay BCA shall be subject to additional civil penalties up to $24 tion line to combat rampant FOD issues discovered in 737 “I believe that the alignment of our company—the cen- $12 million—half of what the FAA proposed—and commit to million,” states the agreement, made public following a 2017 MAX fuel tanks. The model has been grounded since March terpiece being the [single] engineering function with its a series of process improvements. Among them was using Freedom of Information Act request by The Seattle Times. 2019 to correct design- and training-related shortcomings eye on safety—will have the authority and the charter” to a safety management system to “proactively seek continual Boeing’s latest 787 problems come as it grapples with linked to two fatal accidents in five months, and production drive across-the-board improvements, CEO David Calhoun process improvements and correct undesired conditions,” ongoing quality control issues on its KC-46 tanker and 737 was briefly paused earlier this year. told Aviation Week in July. The Boeing boss is confident the the agreement says. It also requires Boeing Commercial MAX programs. In both cases, numerous instances of tools The fallout from the MAX accidents and prolonged revamped approach gives the right internal stakeholders Airplanes (BCA) to “implement improvements to process- and other foreign object debris (FOD) left inside completed grounding have prompted Boeing to make a series of or- “the ownership and the visibility to get ahead of issues, as es to ensure that assembly installations that have been aircraft have drawn scrutiny and concern. ganizational changes aimed at elevating safety concerns opposed to catching up to them.” c

Border Openings and Uniformity Development of a vaccine will help, but “will not be a silver bullet,” says Crucial to Airline Recovery, CEOs Say Wilson. “Rapid, cheap and effective testing is what we’re all waiting for.” > SOME NATIONS ARE WORKING TO RESUME TRAVEL, Japan is another country where the BUT OTHERS ARE RELUCTANT government is taking steps to reopen international travel, says Tadashi > AIRLINES WANT STANDARD APPROACH TO COVID-19 RESTRICTIONS Fujita, vice chairman and director for Japan Airlines. The government is Adrian Schofield opening travel corridors—described as business or residence tracks—with eopening borders is one of the try’s strategy to be a regional hub for multiple Asian countries. It is also most urgent concerns for air- shipping, aviation and finance. considering relaxing entry restric- Rlines as they grapple with the However, there is a “reluctance” tions more broadly for travelers from COVID-19 crisis—not just to ensure im- from other Asia-Pacific countries to Australia, New Zealand, Thailand mediate survival but also as an essen- follow suit, except for the essential and Vietnam. Qatar Airways CEO Akbar Al Baker wants more predictable tial ingredient for long-term recovery. travel corridors, Wilson says. So Sin- Fujita says the expansion of rules for opening or closing airports due to COVID-19. The importance of this issue made gapore does not have reciprocal agree- COVID-19 testing capacity “is one it a hot topic for airline leaders at the ments for its unilateral initiatives to of the essential factors” in the gov- JOEPRIESAVIATION.NET CAPA – Centre for Aviation Australia reduce quarantines. ernment’s plans to resume interna- become available, internationally rec- Qantas, Virgin Australia and Re- to reopen their borders and instead Pacific Aviation Summit, held as a vir- There have also been no multilat- tional travel. In July, 2,000 tests per ognized health certificates should be gional Express Holdings (Rex) have focus on isolating smaller “hot spots.” tual event on Sept. 2. Industry CEOs eral travel arrangements involving day could be carried out on inbound issued, he says. all reported strong demand for routes He wants Australian state border re- and senior executives stressed the more than two countries formed in the passengers. But this rate is expect- Al Baker says some airports have within individual states, but interstate strictions to be removed by Dec. 25. need for more action and uniformity Asia-Pacific region. Progress in this ed to increase to 10,000 tests per extended international traffic closures flights have been reduced to a trick- Taking a more localized approach on relaxing border restrictions, both regard is “frustratingly slow,” Wilson day, thanks to new testing centers at with just one or two days’ notice, forc- le. Getting state borders open “will to domestic travel restrictions would for international travel and between says. “The ingredients are there, [but] Haneda Airport and Narita Airport in ing last-minute cancelations. He says make a huge difference” to domestic be better than the “blunt instrument” states in the same country. we just don’t see a shared appetite yet.” Tokyo, and at Osaka’s Kansai Airport. national authorities should provide demand, said John Sharp, deputy of shutting down an entire state, says Scoot CEO Campbell Wilson notes Whether or not countries take a Qatar Airways CEO Akbar Al Baker notice at least 15 days in advance if chairman of Rex. John Hart, executive chair for tourism that Singapore has been one of the more progressive approach is “very says the wide variety of national stan- they are going to extend closures. The Qantas CEO Alan Joyce contends of the Australian Chamber of Com- most proactive in terms of easing much driven by domestic politics,” he dards for closing borders or restrict- carrier has cut back plans to add more that state border closures are current- merce and Industry. entry and quarantine requirements says. Factors include how much po- ing flights due to COVID-19 is one of destinations next month because of ly not based on scientific or fact-based Virgin Australia CEO Paul Scurrah for certain countries identified as litical capital a government has, the the airline’s main challenges in oper- the uncertainty regarding border clo- criteria. He is urging the development says he agrees with Joyce’s calls for low risk. There is no quarantine country’s economic dependence on ating internationally. sures, says Al Baker. of nationally agreed upon standards “medical [and] fact-based deci - needed for inbound travelers from trade and tourism, and the degree of There needs to be more uniformi- Australia remains closed to most in- to determine when COVID-19 restric- sion-making” regarding state bor- New Zealand or Brunei, and it has isolationist sentiment. The countries ty regarding when and how airports ternational travelers. Qantas does not tions should be removed from travel ders. It “doesn’t make sense” when been halved for those from six other that open first will be those “where are opened or closed to international expect to see meaningful levels of in- between states or applied in more cities with low COVID-19 rates cannot countries. COVID-19 tests are still there is an understanding that inter- traffic, Al Baker said during the CAPA ternational traffic return until the mid- specific localities. “Business doesn’t be connected, he says. There should required, however. connectedness is a necessity for eco- summit. He urged international orga- dle of 2021, although individual travel like uncertainty,” he says. be more of a “market-by-market Singapore has also negotiated travel nomic success.” nizations to become more involved bubbles with countries such as New While Qantas has enough liquidity decision process.” corridors with at least four countries, Proximity, familiarity and econom- in establishing global standards on Zealand could come earlier than that. to survive the state closures for some Scurrah says Virgin Australia but these are for essential travel only. ic ties will determine which countries this issue. The immediate concern for Aus- time if necessary, the same is not true would also welcome the chance to re- Unlike the quarantine reductions, the open their borders to each other first, Standardized requirements would tralian airline CEOs is reopening for smaller tourist operators, says sume flights to New Zealand. “If that travel corridors are bilateral rather Wilson says. This means “neighbors allow airports to open safely and domestic borders between states. A Joyce. He notes that it will be a big opens up soon, we’d jump at it. We’ve than unilateral moves. will open to neighbors” before look- efficiently, Al Baker says. He notes resurgence in coronavirus cases has blow for the economy and leisure trav- got aircraft we want to deploy there The Singapore government “clearly ing further afield. But they will still that differing quarantine standards caused most Australian states to re- el if the tourist ecosystem disappears. and New Zealand is part of our future gets the necessity” to open borders, need to develop trust in each other’s are also confusing passengers and strict or block domestic travel from Australian Prime Minister Scott plans. . . . The sooner we can be back says Wilson. This aligns with the coun- COVID-19 testing and reporting. airlines. When COVID-19 vaccines certain other states. Morrison has been pushing for states there the better,” he says. c

24 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 25 COMMERCIAL AVIATION

European Airlines Warn they hope will allow the Commission to swiftly approve it. Since a COVID-19 vaccine—the key development needed of Barriers to Recovery for a return to more normal levels of air traffic and long-haul activity—is still months away even under the most optimistic > NORWEGIAN CAUTIONS IT MAY NOT SURVIVE forecasts, airlines must adjust to the new reality. WITHOUT MORE CASH “We were all looking forward to a good summer,” says Thomas Reynaert, managing director of European airline in- > RYANAIR CUT ITS SEPTEMBER AND dustry body Airlines for Europe. “Even in difficult times, there OCTOBER CAPACITY was some optimism because the general economy was picking up just before the summer. But unfortunately, the airline busi- Helen Massy-Beresford Paris and Jens Flottau Frankfurt ness hasn’t followed the economic trend as it usually does.” The gloom is not limited to Europe. Airports Council ummer 2020 was far from a bumper season for International expects passenger volumes to be down 59.6% Europe’s COVID-19-hit airlines, but by offering cheap in 2020 compared with its precoronavirus forecast, and it Sdeals and flexible tickets to lockdown-weary travelers in believes that passenger volumes will not recover to 2019 need of a change of scene, they managed to make the best of levels before 2023. Markets that rely on significant interna- it. Now, in September, with infection rates on the rise and trav- tional traffic are not expected to rebound until 2024. el restrictions tightening, airlines face a brutal reality check. In the near term, statistics released by Eurocontrol on According to the latest figures from Eurocontrol, the re- Sept. 7 show that traffic for the week of Aug. 31-Sept. 6 covery in air traffic has stalled at just under half the levels reached 47.9% of 2019, or 16,769 flights a day on average; that seen in 2019. Airlines and airports blame the inconsistent represents a drop of 511 flights per day compared with the travel regulations put in place by individual governments, previous week. Eurocontrol Director General Eamonn which they say are harming traveler confidence. Brennan previously warned that the recovery has reached The International Air Transport Association (IATA) a “plateau,” partly because of state restrictions. called for governments to implement International Civil Reynaert also points out that while Eurocontrol numbers Aviation Organization guidelines globally, reopen borders show evolving patterns in traffic, they do not take into account JOHN MACDOUGALL/AFP/GETTY IMAGES

Wizz Air says capacity may recover more slowly than forecast because of travel restrictions.

and create an effective system of COVID-19 testing, as it load factor and booking trends. “This summer, we [did not reported on a “disappointing” July, in which traffic levels see] the amount of passenger traffic and the revenue that were below what it had forecast. we hoped for,” he says. According to IATA, July traffic came in at 79.8% below “We have also seen many late bookings, which are a chal- last year’s level, whereas airlines offered 70.1% less capacity. lenge for airline planning. In terms of load factors, we’ve seen The combination of low traffic and excess capacity led to a very diverse picture, with some of the LCCs doing relatively an all-time low load factor of 57.9% for the industry. The well. But overall load factors have been well below 70%.” Asia-Pacific region had recovered the most after a decline Eurocontrol says it expects very limited growth in Sep- of 72.2%, whereas demand in North America was still down tember, as airlines adjust their schedules to reflect the evo- 80.6%, and traffic in Europe dropped 81.3%. lution of COVID-19 travel restrictions in the region. The trade association also said further government fi- Ryanair, by far Europe’s busiest carrier—with 1,400 daily nancial assistance would be needed for the industry and flights on average during that week compared with its clos- called for the European Union to suspend the 80-20 slot est competitor EasyJet’s 781—said on Aug. 17 it would cut rule for the upcoming winter season. That slot waiver is capacity in September and October by almost 20% because seen as so important that IATA and other airline and indus- of weak forward bookings due to the uncertainties about try associations have put forward a set of conditions that COVID-19 case rates and travel restrictions.

26 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMERCIAL AVIATION British Airways is still operating less than 20% of its schedule.

European Airlines Warn they hope will allow the Commission to swiftly approve it. Among the recent changes, the Since a COVID-19 vaccine—the key development needed UK has removed Spain, France and of Barriers to Recovery for a return to more normal levels of air traffic and long-haul the Netherlands from its safe list activity—is still months away even under the most optimistic of “travel corridors”; arrivals from > NORWEGIAN CAUTIONS IT MAY NOT SURVIVE forecasts, airlines must adjust to the new reality. those countries must self-isolate for 14 WITHOUT MORE CASH “We were all looking forward to a good summer,” says days or face a fine. In response, Willie Thomas Reynaert, managing director of European airline in- Walsh—CEO of International Airlines > RYANAIR CUT ITS SEPTEMBER AND dustry body Airlines for Europe. “Even in difficult times, there Group, the parent company of British OCTOBER CAPACITY was some optimism because the general economy was picking Airways, which is still operating less up just before the summer. But unfortunately, the airline busi- than 20% of its normal schedule— Helen Massy-Beresford Paris Jens Flottau Frankfurt ness hasn’t followed the economic trend as it usually does.” wrote in The Times on Sept. 1: “The The gloom is not limited to Europe. Airports Council UK has officially hung up the ‘Closed’ ummer 2020 was far from a bumper season for International expects passenger volumes to be down 59.6% sign. . . . Safeguarding people’s health Europe’s COVID-19-hit airlines, but by offering cheap in 2020 compared with its precoronavirus forecast, and it is obviously the top priority. But en- Sdeals and flexible tickets to lockdown-weary travelers in believes that passenger volumes will not recover to 2019 forced quarantine from an ever-shift- need of a change of scene, they managed to make the best of levels before 2023. Markets that rely on significant interna- ing list of countries is not effective.” JOEPRIESAVIATION.NET it. Now, in September, with infection rates on the rise and trav- tional traffic are not expected to rebound until 2024. Budapest-based Wizz Air warned on Sept. 1 that it would hind the worst-case scenario laid out in the recovery busi- el restrictions tightening, airlines face a brutal reality check. In the near term, statistics released by Eurocontrol on restore less capacity than previously expected in the coming ness plan because people are returning to air travel more According to the latest figures from Eurocontrol, the re- Sept. 7 show that traffic for the week of Aug. 31-Sept. 6 months if COVID-19 travel restrictions persist across Europe. slowly than anticipated. Lufthansa plans more draconian covery in air traffic has stalled at just under half the levels reached 47.9% of 2019, or 16,769 flights a day on average; that Wizz Air’s announcement came after Hungary abruptly closed measures, including asset disposals and layoffs, uncommon seen in 2019. Airlines and airports blame the inconsistent represents a drop of 511 flights per day compared with the its borders to all nonresidents, with a few exceptions. even in times of crisis. travel regulations put in place by individual governments, previous week. Eurocontrol Director General Eamonn Wizz Air said it expected capacity for the three months On the fleet side, the airline will soon decide whether it which they say are harming traveler confidence. Brennan previously warned that the recovery has reached ending in September to reach roughly 60%, but for the third will permanently phase out the Airbus A380s and A340s The International Air Transport Association (IATA) a “plateau,” partly because of state restrictions. quarter it would probably remain at that level rather than and Boeing 747-400s, measures that would reduce the wide- called for governments to implement International Civil Reynaert also points out that while Eurocontrol numbers rise to 80% as previously anticipated, if travel restrictions body fleet by 70 aircraft. The group operated 181 passenger Aviation Organization guidelines globally, reopen borders show evolving patterns in traffic, they do not take into account across its network remain in place. It also warned that fur- widebodies at the end of June.

JOHN MACDOUGALL/AFP/GETTY IMAGES ther capacity reductions remained a possibility and that it With the bailout assumptions looking increasingly unre- could park part of its fleet throughout the winter season to alistic, industry insiders believe the airline may ask for a protect its cash balance. second round of government financing in early 2021. The first Air France has already seen the effects of rapidly changing package, however, came with tight conditions and a commit- travel rules such as the UK quarantine but is still ramping up ment on interest rates that spiral up to about 9% after three its capacity; the airline plans to operate at about 50% of 2019 years. Lufthansa sources say it is unimaginable that it would levels in September and 60% in October, up from 35% in July be in a position to repay a second bailout that has the same and 40% in August. Over the summer, Air France served 150 or similar conditions, particularly if revenues and cash flow destinations, about 80% of its normal network. In September, become even more depressed than foreseen. it plans to fly to 170 destinations using 163 aircraft—up from But without further assistance and no quick recovery, 106 in July and August—from its total fleet of 224. Lufthansa could soon run out of options. Before the first Germany intends to enact a mandatory quarantine for ar- bailout, the airline had considered filing for voluntary re- rivals from high-risk zones beginning in October. The travel structuring as part of the protective shield process, roughly industry has criticized this rule change, warning it may soon equivalent to the U.S. Chapter 11 process. At the time, that halt forward bookings to many destinations. In August, the idea was rejected as too disruptive to employees, customers federal government had introduced a control regime that re- and investors; however, it could be back on the agenda if placed mandatory quarantines with broad testing for passen- traffic does not rebound. Wizz Air says capacity may recover more slowly gers arriving from what were considered high-infection-risk If the future looks bleak even for one of the region’s stal- than forecast because of travel restrictions. countries or regions. Every traveler, regardless of point of ori- warts, the fate of less financially stable airlines is even more gin, could be tested at the arrival airport on a voluntary basis, uncertain. And the COVID-19 crisis may well lead to addi- free of charge; arrivals from one of the high-risk locations tional casualties in the coming months and years. and create an effective system of COVID-19 testing, as it load factor and booking trends. “This summer, we [did not had to take a COVID-19 test prior to onward travel. Long-haul low-cost carrier (LCC) Norwegian Air Shuttle reported on a “disappointing” July, in which traffic levels see] the amount of passenger traffic and the revenue that Only three weeks later, however, the German government has said a government loan guarantee may not be enough were below what it had forecast. we hoped for,” he says. changed course again, arguing that the system was unsus- to get it through the prolonged crisis; on Aug. 28, the LCC According to IATA, July traffic came in at 79.8% below “We have also seen many late bookings, which are a chal- tainable because of insufficient testing capacity. Instead, warned of a significant risk of insolvency after it reported a last year’s level, whereas airlines offered 70.1% less capacity. lenge for airline planning. In terms of load factors, we’ve seen every passenger arriving from a high-risk point will again net loss of 5.3 billion Norwegian krone ($605 million) for the The combination of low traffic and excess capacity led to a very diverse picture, with some of the LCCs doing relatively be required to self-quarantine for 14 days, a period that can first half of 2020 and a 71% decline in passenger numbers. an all-time low load factor of 57.9% for the industry. The well. But overall load factors have been well below 70%.” be shortened if a COVID-19 test taken after five days is neg- After initially saying it would keep its fleet largely in hi- Asia-Pacific region had recovered the most after a decline Eurocontrol says it expects very limited growth in Sep- ative. The new rules are to be made effective in October, bernation mode until next year, Norwegian relaunched some of 72.2%, whereas demand in North America was still down tember, as airlines adjust their schedules to reflect the evo- though the exact timing has not been confirmed. short-haul services during the summer: It operated 20 air- 80.6%, and traffic in Europe dropped 81.3%. lution of COVID-19 travel restrictions in the region. Lufthansa and industry lobby group BDL criticized Ger- craft in July, and planned to have 25 in service in September. The trade association also said further government fi- Ryanair, by far Europe’s busiest carrier—with 1,400 daily many’s decision, saying it would lead to a second lockdown: The airline also plans to restart some transatlantic ser- nancial assistance would be needed for the industry and flights on average during that week compared with its clos- 80% of the world would no longer be reachable without quar- vices in December. Travel restrictions between the U.S. and called for the European Union to suspend the 80-20 slot est competitor EasyJet’s 781—said on Aug. 17 it would cut antine upon return, and demand would collapse. Europe, however, are still in place—an obstacle not only for rule for the upcoming winter season. That slot waiver is capacity in September and October by almost 20% because The country’s largest airline, having received a €9 billion Norwegian but also for Europe’s legacy carriers, as they con- seen as so important that IATA and other airline and indus- of weak forward bookings due to the uncertainties about ($11 billion) government bailout in June, has already told its template a challenging winter season in which they are still try associations have put forward a set of conditions that COVID-19 case rates and travel restrictions. employees in internal briefings that Lufthansa is falling be- largely locked out of lucrative transatlantic activities. c

26 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 27 DEFENSE > Saab air-launched decoy p. 29 Russian loyal wingman p. 30 MQ-9 replacement offers: Northrop p. 50 and Lockheed p. 53 U.S. Air Force: Software shift p. 54 and pilot training complications p. 57

UK Plans Bespoke AESA Germany’s Hensoldt and Spain’s Indra. Radar 2, on the other hand, will for Typhoon Retrofit be almost entirely bespoke; the com- monality will be limited to power FIRST UK TYPHOONS TO BE FITTED WITH AESA IN 2022 generation, cooling systems and the > existing interface to the Eurofi ghter’s > RADAR WILL USE BOTH GALLIUM ARSENIDE AND attack computer. GALLIUM NITRIDE SEMICONDUCTORS “From there forward, you are talking about a completely di erent Tony Osborne London set of hardware,” program officials confi rmed. he UK has made a long-awaited beyond-visual-range air-to-air missile, The Mk. 2 sensor will feature a new commitment to the develop- Radar 2 will provide the UK’s Ty- processor; a new receiver, along with Tment of an active, electronically phoon fl eet with electronic attack and a dedicated EW receiver and tech- scanned array radar for the Euro- electronic warfare (EW) capabilities. niques generator; and a new system fi ghter Typhoon. Furthermore, its open architecture for rotating the swashplate that gives The British government is plowing could enable an evolved version of the the radar its increased field of view £317 million ($414 million) into the sensor to be featured on the UK-led over fixed-position AESAs. A new

de he h e d

Array with increased transmit- receive module count for greater sensitivity Radar 2 will sit behind a New high-bandwidth new radome, capable of radome handling the bandwidths generated by the new multifunction array.

Improved swashplate to increase radar ﬁ eld of view New multichannel receiver and processor

Source: BAE Systems

development of the European Com- Future Combat Air System, the Tem- radome will also be developed to sup- mon Radar System (ECRS) Mark 2 pest, which is due to enter service in port the bandwidths required for the version of the Euroradar Captor-E— the mid-2030s and to which the radar radar while maintaining the existing also known as Radar 2—a multifunc- program has “strong ties.” form factor of the current Eurofi ghter tion array that British o cials say will But Radar 2 also arguably adds an- nose. The Radar 2’s array will feature be among the most advanced active, other complication to the convoluted a larger number of transmit and re- electronically scanned array (AESA) web of development for the four- ceive modules over the other ECRS radars yet installed on a Western nation fi ghter, which now has three variants, allowing the delivery of nar- combat aircraft. largely di erent AESA radars in its rower, focused beams to support the Insertion of the Mk. 2 radar into the development road map. electronic attack capability as well as Typhoon would make the platform an Kuwait this year will take delivery boosting the sensitivity to detect lower “ideal partner for the fi fth-generation of its fi rst AESA-equipped Typhoon, radar cross-section targets. According and unmanned-force mix” and would fi tted with the Radar 0 derivative of to Leonardo, the array will use a com- give the fourth-generation Typhoon Captor-E; Qatar expects to receive bination of both gallium arsenide and a “second lease of life,” defense offi- this version of the radar as well. gallium nitride semiconductors. cials close to the program told Avia- In June, Germany and Spain made By using the two materials, Leon- tion Week. commitments for the development of ardo says it will “blend the strengths In addition to broadening the capa- Radar 1, a version of Radar 0 equipped of the different technologies.” Both bility of the aircraft to use existing with a new multichannel receiver and Radar 0 and Radar 1 versions use gal- weapons such as the MBDA Meteor new modes that will be produced by lium arsenide.

2 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE > Saab air-launched decoy p. 29 Russian loyal wingman p. 30 MQ-9 replacement offers: Northrop p. 50 and Lockheed p. 53 U.S. Air Force: Software shift p. 54 and pilot training complications p. 57

UK Plans Bespoke AESA Germany’s Hensoldt and Spain’s Indra. Development of the Mk. 2 radar Radar 2, on the other hand, will builds on a number of UK sovereign for Typhoon Retrofit be almost entirely bespoke; the com- radar research programs, notably the monality will be limited to power Advanced Radar Targeting System FIRST UK TYPHOONS TO BE FITTED WITH AESA IN 2022 generation, cooling systems and the (ARTS) technology demonstration > existing interface to the Eurofi ghter’s program, which saw the installation attack computer. of an experimental AESA in a Pa- > RADAR WILL USE BOTH GALLIUM ARSENIDE AND SAAB GALLIUM NITRIDE SEMICONDUCTORS “From there forward, you are navia Tornado and in a BAC 1-11 testbed Sweden’s Gripen proposals for talking about a completely di erent during the 2000s. The ARTS demon- Finland include jammer pods, the Tony Osborne London set of hardware,” program officials strator was then adapted for fitment confi rmed. into the Typhoon’s nose through a pro- LADM and Saab’s GlobalEye he UK has made a long-awaited beyond-visual-range air-to-air missile, The Mk. 2 sensor will feature a new gram called Bright Adder. Radar 2 has airborne early-warning platform. commitment to the develop- Radar 2 will provide the UK’s Ty- processor; a new receiver, along with yet to fly, but a prototype is undergoing Tment of an active, electronically phoon fl eet with electronic attack and a dedicated EW receiver and tech- extensive testing in a rig at Leo nardo’s scanned array radar for the Euro- electronic warfare (EW) capabilities. niques generator; and a new system facilities in Edinburgh, England. fi ghter Typhoon. Furthermore, its open architecture for rotating the swashplate that gives The contract, announced on Sept. 3, Finnish Needs Prompt Saab The British government is plowing could enable an evolved version of the the radar its increased field of view provides funding to BAE Systems £317 million ($414 million) into the sensor to be featured on the UK-led over fixed-position AESAs. A new and Leonardo for the development Air-Launched Decoy Development and integration of the sensor. Al- though BAE is the prime contractor, LADM IS PART OF FINNISH GRIPEN CAMPAIGN de he h e d the lion’s share of the contract will > flow to Leonardo. > SAAB IS ALSO INVOLVED IN EUROPEAN AEA ACTIVITIES The contract funds the production Array with increased transmit- of sets for test and evaluation. The Tony Osborne London receive module count for first examples of Radar 2 will be in- greater sensitivity Radar 2 will sit behind a stalled on UK Typhoons as early as aab has revealed air-launched to Finland. Yet work on the LADM is New high-bandwidth new radome, capable of 2022. Also funded are the first three decoy development efforts as quite advanced, explains Petter Be- radome production radar sets. Sregional concerns grow about doire, Saab’s chief technology officer handling the bandwidths An initial operating capability the proliferation of anti-access/area- and previously the deputy head of the generated by the new (IOC) of Typhoons with the radar is denial (A2/AD) air defense systems. company’s EW business. multifunction array. expected “soon after 2025,” officials The company’s planned Lightweight “The A2/AD threat has become a say. Contracts for full-scale produc- Air-Launched Decoy Missile (LADM) huge challenge,” Bedoire says. “Swe- tion will follow later. forms a component of Sweden’s pro- den and Finland are among several Currently, the Royal Air Force is posal for the Gripen E in Finland’s HX countries who are in the vicinity of an Improved swashplate to increase radar planning to retrofit Radar 2 in its Fighter requirement, but it also re- adversary with A2/AD capabilities, fi eld of view New multichannel 40-strong Tranche 3 fleet but is mull- flects Europe’s growing interest in and [they] really need something to receiver and processor ing whether the sensor should also airborne electronic warfare (EW) ca- be able to tackle them.” feature in the 65-strong Tranche 2 pabilities. Having relied heavily for While the future Gripen will be kit- fleet. Such a decision could form part decades on U.S. capabilities, European ted out with an organic EW system, of the planning currently underway air forces both NATO-aligned and Saab’s analysis of the A2/AD threat for the UK’s Integrated Review of de- neutral are looking to develop more concluded that the company also Source: BAE Systems fense and foreign policy. The review extensive sovereign EW capacity. needed to develop active jamming is due to be published this November. Plans call for escort and standoff jam- capabilities to increase the aircraft’s development of the European Com- Future Combat Air System, the Tem- radome will also be developed to sup- The radar installation program is sep- ming provided through pods or dedi- offensive capabilities. The additional mon Radar System (ECRS) Mark 2 pest, which is due to enter service in port the bandwidths required for the arate from the UK’s Project Janus, cated platforms, as well as making use jamming capacity would be provided version of the Euroradar Captor-E— the mid-2030s and to which the radar radar while maintaining the existing the follow-on to Centurion that en- of electronic attack capabilities inher- through Saab’s development of its also known as Radar 2—a multifunc- program has “strong ties.” form factor of the current Eurofi ghter abled the Typhoon to take on the mis- ent within the latest generation of Electronic Attack Jammer Pod. tion array that British o cials say will But Radar 2 also arguably adds an- nose. The Radar 2’s array will feature sions and weaponry of the Tornado active, electronically scanned array Once launched, the aerial decoy be among the most advanced active, other complication to the convoluted a larger number of transmit and re- GR4 in early 2019. radars (AESA). can be used to screen larger forma- electronically scanned array (AESA) web of development for the four- ceive modules over the other ECRS Radar 2 is also under consideration The LADM would become Europe’s tions and create protective corridors radars yet installed on a Western nation fi ghter, which now has three variants, allowing the delivery of nar- for Germany’s Tranche 4 fleet, which second air-launched decoy develop- for aircraft and standoff weapons to combat aircraft. largely di erent AESA radars in its rower, focused beams to support the will partly replace the Panavia Tornado. ment, following in the footsteps of fly through. Insertion of the Mk. 2 radar into the development road map. electronic attack capability as well as In addition, Radar 2 forms part of the MBDA’s Spear EW, a derivative of Bedoire says the decoy, like the Typhoon would make the platform an Kuwait this year will take delivery boosting the sensitivity to detect lower UK’s offer to Finland for its HX Fighter the network- enabled standoff missile jammer pod, would essentially be - “ideal partner for the fi fth-generation of its fi rst AESA-equipped Typhoon, radar cross-section targets. According requirement and for Saudi Arabia’s also being developed. In addition, Ray- come an extension of the Gripen’s and unmanned-force mix” and would fi tted with the Radar 0 derivative of to Leonardo, the array will use a com- 48-strong Batch 2 order, for which theon has offered its Miniature Air- own EW system. “It will use the same give the fourth-generation Typhoon Captor-E; Qatar expects to receive bination of both gallium arsenide and Riyadh signed a memorandum of in- Launched Decoy (MALD) for export kind of interfaces and interpreta- a “second lease of life,” defense offi- this version of the radar as well. gallium nitride semiconductors. tent in 2018. Most likely, as with Ger- to European air arms. tion of threats using the same kind cials close to the program told Avia- In June, Germany and Spain made By using the two materials, Leon- many’s Tranche 4, these Typhoons will Saab is remaining tight-lipped of technique and threat libraries on tion Week. commitments for the development of ardo says it will “blend the strengths go on to replace the kingdom’s own about the development—revealed at Gripen,” he says. In addition to broadening the capa- Radar 1, a version of Radar 0 equipped of the different technologies.” Both fleet of Tornados. Remaining Euro- Finland’s Kauhava Air Show in Au- The company does not discount be- bility of the aircraft to use existing with a new multichannel receiver and Radar 0 and Radar 1 versions use gal- fighter partner Italy has yet to make gust—because it does not want to ing able to use the LADM from differ- weapons such as the MBDA Meteor new modes that will be produced by lium arsenide. a decision on an AESA retrofit. c give away too much about its proposal ent platforms, although at the moment

2 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 29 DEFENSE

the capability is being devised with the adapting previous designs of weap- cially available components for the Finnish campaign in mind. ons to fulfill the role, although it is un- active systems to be installed inside Bedoire would not say how many of clear whether this design would be of the decoy, with the work leaning heav- the decoys a single Gripen would be a weapon previously integrated onto ily on Saab’s technology center in Tam- able to carry, but the idea is to create the Gripen. pere, Finland—where the company was a swarm. “We currently have that [missile] able to draw in engineering experience The LADM likely would be powered platform at [technology readiness level] from the telecommunications industry, by a small turbojet engine as on other of 6-7, so it is quite mature,” Bedoire from such companies as Nokia and air-launched decoys, but no details have says, noting that development is Microsoft, to work on radio-frequency been given on range or endurance. aligned with the timelines of Finland’s antennas and sensors. Work is also Saab’s EW business is working proposed procurement plans. The being supported by academia, Bedoire with the company’s Dynamics unit on LADM will use off-the-shelf commer- says, including students from Finland’s

(UAS). The Grom also can destroy surface targets and Russia Reveals Loyal conduct reconnaissance and electronic jamming. It can carry weapons weighing up to 500 kg (1,100 lb.): two in- Wingman Concept side the fuselage and two suspended from underwing pylons, up to a total of 2 tons. The Grom is to be powered by > RUSSIA’S FIRST LARGE UAS HAS ENTERED SERVICE two 2,500-kg-thrust (5,500-lb.) AI-222-25 turbofans, also used by the Yak-130 jet combat trainer. > ALTIUS-RU AND OKHOTNIK UAS TRIALS CONTINUE For now, the Grom is being developed using internal funding, with the expectation of a Russian defense ministry Piotr Butowski Gdansk, Poland contract. “Today, the [defense ministry] has an understand- he Kronstadt Co. is building on the success of Russia’s first modern large unmanned Taircraft system Inokhodets-BLA (Orion), revealing a full-scale mockup of its loyal wingman concept aircraft as well as its ambitions to expand in the large UAV market. Russia’s foray into modern UAV development began long after that of the U.S. and other countries—and after the war with Georgia in 2008 revealed Russia’s military weaknesses. Moscow has

Kronstadt’s Grom UAS mockup is a concept for a loyal wingman that would target an enemy’s air defense systems ahead of Russian manned fighters. since developed and started production of the Orion, the Russian equivalent of the General Atomics Aeronautical Systems MQ-1 Predator. Behind it, multiple projects are in the pipeline that could be exported to nations that do not want to buy aircraft from Europe, Israel or the U.S. Kronstadt began with that Predator-replica Orion, mastering design and production of thin-walled ultralight structures made of carbon composites using a ing that a UAV of this class should en masse come into ser- vacuum infusion method. Orion is also the first fully electric vice with the Aerospace Forces,” says Nikolai Dolzhenkov, aircraft of this size in Russia. The company aims to use that designer general of Kronstadt. experience to stay ahead of other Russian manufacturers The Orion is currently Kronstadt’s main product, devel- and the needs of the nation’s defense ministry and to gain oped under the defense ministry’s Inokhodets-BLA program. ground in the export market. It is the first large UAS in Russia to enter production. At the Army 2020 exhibition in Kubinka near Moscow Kronstadt CEO Sergey Bogatikov said during Army 2020 in August, Kronstadt’s stand was dominated by a full-size that the first Inokhodets-BLA system had been delivered to mockup of the Grom strike aircraft. The Grom is intended as the Russian Armed Forces and the company had been award- an unmanned “loyal wingman” that will fly in front of a group ed a contract for further deliveries. The military also request- of manned aircraft to pave the way through an enemy’s air ed additional requirements, and a modernized version with defense system using anti-radiation missiles. weapons that were not included in the original requirements According to the company, the manned fighter can will be produced. “We are showing a modernized version with guide three or four Grom unmanned aircraft systems greater takeoff weight and weapons,” Bogatikov said.

30 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE the capability is being devised with the adapting previous designs of weap- cially available components for the Aalto University, which has done exten- Some two-seat aircraft could be used program as well as in the Responsive Finnish campaign in mind. ons to fulfill the role, although it is un- active systems to be installed inside sive research into AESA technology. as dedicated EW aircraft or suppres- Electronic Attack for Cooperative Bedoire would not say how many of clear whether this design would be of the decoy, with the work leaning heav- The LADMs could be prepro - sion-of-enemy air-defense platforms. Task program, which forms part of the decoys a single Gripen would be a weapon previously integrated onto ily on Saab’s technology center in Tam- grammed prior to takeoff, but the close Saab would not comment if the a tri-national European PESCO pro- able to carry, but the idea is to create the Gripen. pere, Finland—where the company was integration with the Gripen means LADM is desired by Sweden, but the gram to look at the creation of a Eu- a swarm. “We currently have that [missile] able to draw in engineering experience that an EW operator in the backseat company is paying close attention ropean podded airborne electronic The LADM likely would be powered platform at [technology readiness level] from the telecommunications industry, of a Gripen could also task the decoys to Germany’s luWES requirement, attack (AEA) capability. by a small turbojet engine as on other of 6-7, so it is quite mature,” Bedoire from such companies as Nokia and while in flight. This would allow for which calls for the creation of a fleet The Gripen is one of five Western air-launched decoys, but no details have says, noting that development is Microsoft, to work on radio-frequency “increasing flexibility to react to ad- of standoff and escort jamming plat- fighters being proposed for Finland’s been given on range or endurance. aligned with the timelines of Finland’s antennas and sensors. Work is also versary actions,” Bedoire suggests. forms. Saab is also involved in the €9.4 billion ($11.1 billion) HX require- Saab’s EW business is working proposed procurement plans. The being supported by academia, Bedoire Sweden is proposing a mix of single- European Commission-funded Pre- ment. A selection decision is expected with the company’s Dynamics unit on LADM will use off-the-shelf commer- says, including students from Finland’s seat and twin-seat Gripens for Finland: paratory Action on Defense Research in 2021. c

(UAS). The Grom also can destroy surface targets and Kronstadt is counting on traditional importers of Russian Russia Reveals Loyal conduct reconnaissance and electronic jamming. It can military equipment to buy the Orion, but the company faces carry weapons weighing up to 500 kg (1,100 lb.): two in- stiff competition from China. The Chinese Casc CH-4 and Wingman Concept side the fuselage and two suspended from underwing py- Chengdu Wing Loong have been bought by Algeria, Egypt lons, up to a total of 2 tons. The Grom is to be powered by and Iraq as well as former Soviet Union states Kazakhstan > RUSSIA’S FIRST LARGE UAS HAS ENTERED SERVICE two 2,500-kg-thrust (5,500-lb.) AI-222-25 turbofans, also and Uzbekistan. In civilian tasks, the Orion is being pro- used by the Yak-130 jet combat trainer. posed to monitor large areas, such as for early detection of > ALTIUS-RU AND OKHOTNIK UAS TRIALS CONTINUE For now, the Grom is being developed using internal forest fires in Siberia or patrolling the Northern Sea route in funding, with the expectation of a Russian defense ministry the Russian Arctic. Russia’s legislature is developing a legal Piotr Butowski Gdansk, Poland contract. “Today, the [defense ministry] has an understand- framework for the use of UAS in civilian airspace. he Kronstadt Co. is building on the success of Russia’s first modern large unmanned Kronstadt Grom UAV Specifications Taircraft system Inokhodets-BLA (Orion), revealing a full-scale mockup of its loyal wingman concept aircraft as well as its ambitions to expand Dimensions [m (ft.)] in the large UAV market. Length ...... 13.8 (45.3) The Russian Sirius UAV includes a built-in satellite Russia’s foray into modern UAV development Wingspan ...... 10 (33) terminal to enable longer-range communications. began long after that of the U.S. and other coun- Height ...... 3.8 (12.5) tries—and after the war with Georgia in 2008 re- tem also includes a communication suite for cooperation vealed Russia’s military weaknesses. Moscow has Weights [kg (lb.)] with piloted aviation, which allows the use of our [UAS] in mixed formations,” he said. Kronstadt’s Grom UAS mockup is a concept for a loyal Max. takeoff ...... 7,000 (15,400) A mockup of the aforementioned Helios UAS, also wingman that would target an enemy’s air defense Max. payload ...... 2,000 (4,400) made by Kronstadt, was presented in the early-warning systems ahead of Russian manned fighters. Helios-RLD radar picket variant with a large surveillance Performance radar under the fuselage. The aircraft weighs 4,000 kg and since developed and started production of the Max. speed ...... 1,000 kph (620 mph) can fly 30 hr. at 11,000 m altitude. Orion, the Russian equivalent of the General Atomics Cruising speed ...... 800 kph (500 mph) The Army 2020 exhibition also included displays closed Aeronautical Systems MQ-1 Predator. Behind it, to the public; footage of them was released by the defense multiple projects are in the pipeline that could be Ceiling ...... 12,000 m (40,000 ft.) ministry. That imagery showed two exhibits in a hangar at exported to nations that do not want to buy air- Operational radius ...... 700 km (380 nm) Kubinka Air Base on display for the defense minister and craft from Europe, Israel or the U.S. his entourage. Those included the new-generation Sukhoi Kronstadt began with that Predator-replica Orion, Source: Piotr Butowski Su-57 fighter and a large Sukhoi S-70 Okhotnik (Hunter) mastering design and production of thin-walled unmanned combat aircraft. The Okhotnik copy displayed ultralight structures made of carbon composites using a ing that a UAV of this class should en masse come into ser- In addition to the Orion, Army 2020 featured a full- in Kubinka carried the number “070;” it was probably vacuum infusion method. Orion is also the first fully electric vice with the Aerospace Forces,” says Nikolai Dolzhenkov, size mockup of the twin-engine Inokhodets-RU aircraft a full-size mockup. The S-70B demonstrator, which has aircraft of this size in Russia. The company aims to use that designer general of Kronstadt. (Sirius), which is twice as heavy as the Orion. The name been undergoing flight tests since Aug. 3, 2019, bears the experience to stay ahead of other Russian manufacturers The Orion is currently Kronstadt’s main product, devel- “Sirius” might cause a bit of confusion because at the number “071.” and the needs of the nation’s defense ministry and to gain oped under the defense ministry’s Inokhodets-BLA program. MAKS 2019 exhibition that name appeared on a different The S-70 Okhotnik is a flying-wing aircraft that weighs ground in the export market. It is the first large UAS in Russia to enter production. aircraft, which is now being called the Helios. The new about 20 tons and is powered by a single 117BD turbojet At the Army 2020 exhibition in Kubinka near Moscow Kronstadt CEO Sergey Bogatikov said during Army 2020 Sirius is important because the company received an or- engine, which is a nonafterburner version of the AL-41F1 in August, Kronstadt’s stand was dominated by a full-size that the first Inokhodets-BLA system had been delivered to der for it this year, said Bogatikov. (117) engine of the Su-57. It carries weapons in two internal mockup of the Grom strike aircraft. The Grom is intended as the Russian Armed Forces and the company had been award- The aircraft has a takeoff weight of 2.5 tons, including bays, similar to the Su-57. The armament itself is common an unmanned “loyal wingman” that will fly in front of a group ed a contract for further deliveries. The military also request- 450 kg of weapons and stores, and can stay in the air 20 hr. to both the Su-57 and S-70 as well. of manned aircraft to pave the way through an enemy’s air ed additional requirements, and a modernized version with at an altitude of 7,000 m (23,000 ft.). Bogatikov pointed out The 7-ton Altius-RU high-altitude long-endurance UAS defense system using anti-radiation missiles. weapons that were not included in the original requirements that Inokhodets-RU has a built-in satellite communication also was in the closed section of the exhibition. Two likely According to the company, the manned fighter can will be produced. “We are showing a modernized version with terminal, in contrast to the current Orion, whose radius small air-launched UAVs, the Molniya (Lightning) and Pira- guide three or four Grom unmanned aircraft systems greater takeoff weight and weapons,” Bogatikov said. is limited to the range of direct communication. “The sys- nia (Piranha), were among the closed exhibits, too. c

30 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 31 SPACE

32 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST SPACE

Vega, Electron Return to will experiment with artificial intelligence to improve the efficiency of sending vast quantities of data to Earth. It will Service With New Offerings acquire numerous images and allow scientists to monitor changes in vegetation and water quality, detect urban heat islands and carry out experiments on the role of evapo - transpiration in climate change. The SSMS project was proposed by Arianespace. An Arianespace’s ESA product, it was developed by Vega prime contractor Vega launcher Avio and built by Czech Republic-based SAB Aerospace. delivered 53 satellites Satellite integration was performed in the Czech Republic. into orbit during The European Union funded the proof-of-concept flight. its Sept. 2 return- The successful 16th flight of Vega on the SSMS mission fol- OCTOBER 20-21, 2020 to-flight mission, lowed a series of delays due to the July 2019 launch failure of Vega’s 15th mission, the coronavirus pandemic and a spate of The Ritz-Carlton Tysons Corner demonstrating poor weather. Investigators found that the most likely cause EUROPEAN SPACE AGENCY McLean, VA a new ride-share of the accident was thermo-structural failure in the forward service. dome area of the Zefiro 23 motor, which powers Vega’s second stage. The event led to a breakup of the launcher in two main parts: the Zefiro 23; and the assembly composed of the The DefenseChain Conference is designed for leaders and decision-makers from primes to suppliers, fairing, satellite, flight adapter, AVUM (Attitude and Vernier including strategic planning and business development leaders, program and project managers, supply chain Upper Module) fourth stage and the Zefiro 9 third stage. executives, market analysts, investment bankers and financial institutions. 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Shaping acquisitions of the future Rocket Lab’s Electron have returned to flight, with satellite into orbit for Capella Space, a San Francisco-based Supply chain opportunities Sboth companies unveiling new services in an increas- information services company. The technology innovation capacity of the The THREE MAIN PILLARS of the DefenseChain Conference are: ingly competitive market for small satellite launch services. Engineers traced the July 4 failure to a faulty electrical industry Business Strategy, Supplier Opportunities and Program Excellence. Operated by Arianespace from Kourou, French Guiana, connection that triggered a premature shutdown of the The program leadership response to 2020s Vega flew its first ride-share mission, with 53 satellites on- rocket’s second stage. The failed flight claimed seven satel- Knowledge gained from each pillar is actionable—enabling delegates to effectively board owned by 21 customers. Meanwhile, Long Beach, lites owned by Canon, Planet and In-Space Missions. secure significant and sustainable growth opportunities. California-based Rocket Lab launched its 14th Electron Capella’s first commercial satellite, named Sequoia, fared mission from New Zealand’s Mahia Peninsula, placing a better, arriving in its intended orbit 500 km (310 mi.) above Business Strategy Supercharge Your Business Strategy Who benefits from attending? 220-lb. synthetic aperture radar Earth-observation space- Earth and inclined 45 deg. relative to the equator. The loca- Delegates at DefenseChain engage with top industry Strategic planning, business development, engineering and technology leaders craft into orbit for startup Capella Space. 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Analysts, investment and financial Arianespace debuted a ride-share service similar to one of- disaster response and recovery, among other applications. community members fered by SpaceX and the Indian Space Research Organization The company plans to operate an initial constellation of seven to haul dozens of satellites into orbit on a single mission. satellites following successful trials with a demonstration Supplier Opportunities Grow Your Business or Organization Vega’s ride-share is like a bus, whereas Electron—like satellite, named Denali, that launched in December 2018. DefenseChain shows suppliers how to make their mark Virgin Orbit’s LauncherOne and other dedicated smallsat On Sept. 3, Rocket Lab revealed that the kick stage motor with top Defense programs and clear the fiscal realities Sponsorships boosters—resembles a taxi. 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Spacecraft Mission Service (SSMS) demonstration, with The satellite, which is expected to remain operational for Customized sponsorships are also available. 53 spacecraft mounted on a new European Space Agency 5-6 years, is intended as a technology demonstration, test- The earlier you begin your Sponsorship – Program Excellence Stay Informed on Breakthroughs to Program Performance the more valuable it is! The Aviation Week (ESA)-financed payload dispenser. ing systems—such as power management, thermal control Network averages more than two million page The satellites, with a combined weight of 1,667 lb., were re- and attitude control—that do not have flight heritage. 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Seven microsatellites, weighing 55-320 lb., were attached have to do between the launch vehicle and the satellite and 2020 Program Excellence finalists and winners. to the upper portion of the carbon-fiber payload dispenser, then the ground piece as well—to be able to really provide while 46 nanosatellites, weighing 0.6-15 lb. rode beneath, something useful and [do so] quickly. This is an effort to along with several deployers. One of the cubesats, PhiSat-1, really smash all that down.” c Register and learn more at: conf.events/DCPE 32 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST UNMANNED AVIATION

Reliable Robotics Reveals Autonomous the FAA can handle, he says, from aircraft certification to flight standards. Caravan for Unmanned Cargo “Certification of these systems is about more than just the equipment RELIABLE ROBOTICS HAS FLOWN A CESSNA 172 SKYHAWK that goes on the aircraft. You also need > the communications system, ground FULLY UNMANNED IN U.S. AIRSPACE network and control center—for the > CARAVAN IS TO BE CERTIFIED FOR AUTONOMOUS OPERATION foreseeable future, you are going to have pilots operating these systems Graham Warwick Washington remotely. And then you have maintenance and the Part 135 and Part 121 n cargo feeder service with package Reliable Robotics has a “singular [operating requirements] aspects,” carriers such as FedEx Express, focus” on certification, says co-founder he notes. ICessna Caravans and their pi- and CEO Robert Rose, who led flight “What makes us different from lots fly only a couple of hours a day. software development on the Falcon 9 others out there is we are looking at Startups seeking to disrupt the avi- rocket and Dragon capsule at SpaceX solving this problem holistically and ation market see an opportunity in and the Autopilot diver-assistance pro- how you vertically integrate all this converting the aircraft to supervised gram at Tesla. Juerg Frefel, co-founder together to create a complete opera- autonomy and moving the pilot to a and vice president of engineering, led tion,” Rose says. “For the first approv-

After unmanned flights with a Cessna 172, Reliable Robotics conducted an autonomous landing with a Caravan.

RELIABLE ROBOTICS ground station to increase utilization development of the computing plat- al to do this, you are going to have to and improve economics. form for the Falcon 9 and Dragon. answer questions about the onboard Reliable Robotics, founded by for- The San Francisco-based start- system, control center, maintenance mer SpaceX and Tesla engineers, is up’s autonomy platform is divided plan and training for the pilots.” developing an autonomy platform to into layers that can be certified in- The core layer of the autonomy convert the Cessna 208 Caravan for crementally with the FAA. “Others platform is a fly-by-wire control sys- unmanned cargo operations. The com- talk about developing the minimum tem “that’s responsible for keeping pany performed its first automated viable product, we joke internally the aircraft flying and following tra- landing with a Caravan on June 30, about minimum viable autonomy. jectories,” Rose says. On top of this is having already flown a Cessna 172 And that means breaking the prob- an outer-loop layer that performs tra- Skyhawk fully unmanned in national lem down into bite-size chunks that jectory definition and manages other airspace. Another U.S. startup, Xwing, you can push through the certification aircraft systems. A layer on top of is also flight-testing a Caravan modi- process,” Rose says. that deals with issues extrinsic to the fied to autonomous operation (AW&ST The layers divide up the overall sys- aircraft, while a further layer enables Aug. 31-Sept. 13, p. 34). tem into pieces that different parts of remote operation of the entire system.

34 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST SEPTEMBER 2020 UNMANNED AVIATION

Reliable Robotics Reveals Autonomous the FAA can handle, he says, from air- Caravan for Unmanned Cargo craft certification to flight standards. “Certification of these systems is about more than just the equipment RELIABLE ROBOTICS HAS FLOWN A CESSNA 172 SKYHAWK that goes on the aircraft. You also need > the communications system, ground FULLY UNMANNED IN U.S. AIRSPACE network and control center—for the > CARAVAN IS TO BE CERTIFIED FOR AUTONOMOUS OPERATION foreseeable future, you are going to have pilots operating these systems Graham Warwick Washington remotely. And then you have maintenance and the Part 135 and Part 121 n cargo feeder service with package Reliable Robotics has a “singular [operating requirements] aspects,” carriers such as FedEx Express, focus” on certification, says co-founder he notes. ICessna Caravans and their pi- and CEO Robert Rose, who led flight “What makes us different from lots fly only a couple of hours a day. software development on the Falcon 9 others out there is we are looking at Startups seeking to disrupt the avi- rocket and Dragon capsule at SpaceX solving this problem holistically and ation market see an opportunity in and the Autopilot diver-assistance pro- how you vertically integrate all this converting the aircraft to supervised gram at Tesla. Juerg Frefel, co-founder together to create a complete opera- autonomy and moving the pilot to a and vice president of engineering, led tion,” Rose says. “For the first approv-

After unmanned flights with a Cessna 172, Reliable Robotics conducted an autonomous landing with a Caravan. Gaining How Japan RELIABLE ROBOTICS ground station to increase utilization development of the computing plat- al to do this, you are going to have to Airlines Is and improve economics. form for the Falcon 9 and Dragon. answer questions about the onboard Reliable Robotics, founded by for- The San Francisco-based start- system, control center, maintenance Visibility Coping With mer SpaceX and Tesla engineers, is up’s autonomy platform is divided plan and training for the pilots.” developing an autonomy platform to into layers that can be certified in- The core layer of the autonomy COVID-19 convert the Cessna 208 Caravan for crementally with the FAA. “Others platform is a fly-by-wire control sys- Across the unmanned cargo operations. The com- talk about developing the minimum tem “that’s responsible for keeping pany performed its first automated viable product, we joke internally the aircraft flying and following tra- landing with a Caravan on June 30, about minimum viable autonomy. jectories,” Rose says. On top of this is Turbocharging having already flown a Cessna 172 And that means breaking the prob- an outer-loop layer that performs tra- Innovation Skyhawk fully unmanned in national lem down into bite-size chunks that jectory definition and manages other Aftermarket airspace. Another U.S. startup, Xwing, you can push through the certification aircraft systems. A layer on top of is also flight-testing a Caravan modi- process,” Rose says. that deals with issues extrinsic to the fied to autonomous operation (AW&ST The layers divide up the overall sys- aircraft, while a further layer enables Aug. 31-Sept. 13, p. 34). tem into pieces that different parts of remote operation of the entire system.

34 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST ’ L n o u on ofi c no o b n b n fi of fo c f b c n c cu n o non-fl -b -w c f Ou p o w fi p o con o n u on w n b n fi of c c c no o o Tomorrow’s technology today

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SAFETY & REGULATORY MRO 5 Required MAX Modifications Engine MRO 6 ARSA Update Evolution AIRLINE INSIGHT MRO 8 JAL Engineering or Disruption? Outlining Japan Airlines’ engineering operation today f you’re not following the development of new engine Did flight-hour SUPPLY CHAIN technologies, you should if service agreements MRO 10 A New Digital Dawn I Seeking better visibility your business includes pro- reach their peak across the aftermarket pulsion maintenance because before the pandemic? is leading to expanded big changes could be coming. digital options First, consider that engine MRO ways we didn’t expect,” he predicts. TECHNOLOGY accounts for about 40% of total af - Since the 1960s and ’70s, when en- MRO 14 Appetite for Acceleration termarket expenditures and that gines such as the Pratt & Whitney Despite pandemic-related many engines are covered by flight- JT8D and General Electric CF6 en- uncertainty, aviation industry hour agreements that (not surpris- joyed 50 years of service, each subse- tech accelerators press on ingly) charge on a flight-hour basis quent decade has shaved off several with innovation efforts whether the aircraft flies with a 30% years of engine life, Tusa pointed out or 90% load factor. “Airlines are very, during a recent Aviation Week webi- OPERATIONS very good at working out the cost nar. The 1980s-era engines’ lifespan MRO 20 China Airlines: and value that they have in every maxes out at about 40 years, while Not Taking Chances engine,” says Sash Tusa, an Agency the 1990s engines’ expected duration How the Taiwanese carrier is Partners aerospace analyst, so he ex- decreases by about another 10. actively preparing its aircraft pects a disruption in engine schedul- What does that mean for today’s for lease returns, increased ing within the next 18 months. Did newest engines such as the Pratt & cargo demand and typhoons OEMs’ lucrative flight-hour ser - Whitney geared turbofan, the CFM In- vice agreements reach their peak ternational Leap and General Electric ENGINES before the pandemic without them GE9X? Tusa predicts their lifespans MRO 22 CFM56 Repairs knowing it? will shorten to two decades, “given the CFM fleet on the upswing Meanwhile, the push for more sus- immense pressure on the industry to tainable operations and lower carbon move to more-electric or alternative ENGINEERED emissions is accelerating the develop- fuel” versions to decrease emissions. MRO 25 Constellation Compatibilities ment of alternative propulsion tech- OEMs have done a good job produc- New satellite systems speed nologies based on all-electric, hybrid- ing incremental improvements, but the up antenna advancements electric and hydrogen power. While industry needs a bigger leap. an all-electric 100-plus-seat aircraft is So how will this affect the after - AIRCRAFT ANALYSIS unlikely in the near future, “different market? MRO 27 Time and SpaceJet flavors of electric” will start to emerge Sustainable fuels work with existing Mitsubishi Aircraft’s regional over the next few years, on everything engines and hydrogen needs a “high- jet development has been from commuter and regional aircraft temperature gas generator,” so the slow, but competition has to single and twin-aisle transports, aftermarket is less affected by those fallen off as well says my colleague Guy Norris, a pro- two alternatives, says Tusa. Hybrid- pulsion specialist and author of this electric still requires a gas turbine MARKETPLACE issue’s Viewpoint (page MRO31). core, but due to the lower power out- MRO 29 Innovative Startups Ranging from higher-energy-density put, aftermarket demand as we know batteries and embedded motor/genera- it could be reduced, he believes. How- VIEWPOINT tors to distributed propulsion systems ever, the all-electric engine will require MRO 31 Guy Norris, driven by hybrid-electric engines or a different aftermarket model. Aviation Week hydrogen fuel cells, these technologies Tomorrow’s engines could dictate could also lead to significantly more ef- some significant changes for MRO. So ficient future airliner designs. There keep an eye on this space. c

BACKGROUND: BAGOTAJ/GETTY IMAGES. HAND: PAVEL ZHURAVLEV/ will be innovations as well over “the GETTY IMAGES. LINE ART: RATTIKANKEAWPUN/SHUTTERSTOCK INC. next few decades that will creep in in —Lee Ann Shay

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Highlights Contracts MROs, eVTOL Manufacturers Begin Collaboration Aeronautical Engineers was selected by Aero Capital Solutions to convert three Urban air mobility (UAM) vehicle manufacturers and MROs are beginning to lay the groundwork for the maintenance ecosystem the industry will need Boeing 737-800s to freighters. Mod touch to service electric-vertical-takeoff-and-landing (eVTOL) vehicles. work will be performed by Staeco in China. At Aviation Week’s UAM Virtual event in August, German startup It also won a contract with KF Aerospace Lilium—which is developing its Lilium Jet eVTOL for operations starting to convert a fourth 737-400 to a freighter. in 2025—noted that it is beginning to create maintenance manuals for the Mod touch labor will be performed at KF aircraft and collaborate with MRO providers to identify how the mainte - nance process will work. Aerospace’s facility in Canada. A number of MROs are already working to build up expertise in maintenance and repair services for unmanned aircraft systems (UAS). In August, Airinmar was selected by Frontier Air- AFI KLM E&M subsidiary Barfield joined the Robotic Skies network to provide maintenance and repair services for UAS in its Louisville, Ken- lines to provide warranty management and tucky, facility. According to Barfield, it is equipped with the appropriate value engineering services. test benches and expertise to support UAS and is well-positioned to adjust technician knowledge to meet the emerging market. Meanwhile, Lufthansa Technik (LHT) is offering a SafeDrone Health FLYdocs was selected by Argo MRT to service for UAVs. LHT says the cloud-based service helps drone manufac- be its records platform of choice for end- turers and operators monitor the technical condition of their drones by of-lease return services and maintenance providing data on failures and maintenance recommendations so repairs records review. can be “carried out at the optimal time rather than too early or in reaction to a critical situation.” It says the service can reduce maintenance costs by 50% or more. HAECO Xiamen was named by Aeronau- tical Engineers as an authorized conversion center and will be operating two lines UIA’s MRO Subsidiary Approved by EASA starting in April 2021, increasing Aeronauti- A subsidiary of Ukraine International Airlines (UIA) has become the first cal Engineers’ capacity to 14 simultaneous MRO provider in the country to receive European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) Part 145 certification for base maintenance services. lines at five facilities. MAU Technik, launched by the carrier in 2017, will now be able to maintain commercial aircraft registered in the European Union. Since its inception, Joramco was selected by the Ryanair the company has carried out a mix of UIA fleet work and third-party line and Group to perform heavy checks on five base maintenance services for local operators based in Ukraine from its base at Kiev’s Boryspil Airport. With the new approval, MAU Technik will be able Boeing 737NGs and seven Airbus A320s to undertake base maintenance on Boeing 737-700, -800 and -900 aircraft through March 2021. along with Embraer 190 aircraft in accordance with EASA requirements. Algirds Mikelsons, CEO of MAU Technik, says that despite difficulties related to COVID-19 that have affected the entire industry, the company has Lufthansa Technik extended its 737NG further plans to bolster its offerings. “Next, we shall improve marketing and Total Base Maintenance Support contract sales so that more companies may use our capabilities to receive quality with Norwegian. service and advantages in a lower cost base,” he says.

Magnetic MRO was selected by BOC Azul Opens New MRO Center in Sao Paulo Aviation to provide continuing airworthi- Brazilian airline Azul has opened a new MRO center at Viracopos Interna- ness management organization services. tional Airport in Sao Paulo, which it says is the largest MRO complex con- The first 737NG has been sent to Tallinn. structed in Brazil in the last 40 years. The $35 million investment is aimed at improving maintenance efficiencies and better supporting Azul’s fleet. Construction on the 377,000-ft.2 MRO center, designed by Ghafari Associ- Piedmont Propulsion Systems and ates, began in 2018 and was completed this year despite some delays related Malaysia Airlines signed a joint venture to COVID-19. In addition to a hangar that can accommodate one widebody the memorandum of understanding to provide size of an Airbus A350 alongside two or three narrowbodies or three or four ATR/Dash 8 propeller maintenance for Fire- ATRs or Embraer E-Jets, the complex features support spaces for technical shops, logistics management, administrative areas, a technical training center fly/MASwings and third parties. The airline and management and engineering offices. will manage the supply chain of OEM re- Azul says the hangar has been certified for Airbus A320neo checks and placement parts. is expected to be certified for the A330neo by year-end. It intends to have 75 technicians for each line in the hangar, along with 20-25 support staff. c Contract Source: SpeedNews

MRO4 INSIDEMRO SEPTEMBER 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO InsideMRO News Briefs InsideMRO Safety & Regulatory Highlights Contracts MAX Mods MROs, eVTOL Manufacturers Begin Collaboration Aeronautical Engineers was selected by Modifying wiring bundles will take Aero Capital Solutions to convert three most of the time needed to imple - Urban air mobility (UAM) vehicle manufacturers and MROs are beginning Boeing 737-800s to freighters. Mod touch ment mandatory changes to Boeing to lay the groundwork for the maintenance ecosystem the industry will need 737 MAXs as part of return-to-service work will be performed by Staeco in China. to service electric-vertical-takeoff-and-landing (eVTOL) vehicles. preparation, instructions provided to At Aviation Week’s UAM Virtual event in August, German startup It also won a contract with KF Aerospace operators by Boeing and used by the JOEPRIESAVIATION.NET Lilium—which is developing its Lilium Jet eVTOL for operations starting to convert a fourth 737-400 to a freighter. FAA to develop the requirements show. in 2025—noted that it is beginning to create maintenance manuals for the Mod touch labor will be performed at KF The FAA on Aug. 6 released its no- aircraft and collaborate with MRO providers to identify how the mainte - nance process will work. Aerospace’s facility in Canada. tice of proposed rulemaking (NPRM), A number of MROs are already working to build up expertise in mainte- detailing most of the work MAXs must nance and repair services for unmanned aircraft systems (UAS). In August, undergo before being cleared to return Airinmar was selected by Frontier Air- AFI KLM E&M subsidiary Barfield joined the Robotic Skies network to to service. The draft rule references changing the routing of two existing The bulletin does not specify flight provide maintenance and repair services for UAS in its Louisville, Ken- lines to provide warranty management and three already-issued service bulletins bundles and installing five new ones so conditions that would test the modified tucky, facility. According to Barfield, it is equipped with the appropriate value engineering services. (SB) that will be mandated, each re- that separation standards are met in Maneuvering Characteristics Augmen- test benches and expertise to support UAS and is well-positioned to adjust quiring different modifications and, 12 different places. The work requires tation System (MCAS) flight control technician knowledge to meet the emerging market. in one case, a comprehensive “readi- accessing the nose wheel well, forward law implicated in both MAX accidents. Meanwhile, Lufthansa Technik (LHT) is offering a SafeDrone Health FLYdocs was selected by Argo MRT to ness flight” to verify the aircraft are cargo compartment, electrical and Boeing estimates that the readiness- service for UAVs. LHT says the cloud-based service helps drone manufac- be its records platform of choice for end- airworthy after months of inactivity. electronics compartment and the rear test process will take 50 combined work turers and operators monitor the technical condition of their drones by of-lease return services and maintenance Other requirements, including modi- fuselage area, or section 48. The new hours, with a five-person crew working providing data on failures and maintenance recommendations so repairs records review. fied flight-control computer (FCC) bundles add 2.6 lb. to the 737-8’s gross a 10-hr. stint. can be “carried out at the optimal time rather than too early or in reaction software and new pilot training, are weight and 3.2 lb. to the 737-9’s. Boeing released the wiring and MDS to a critical situation.” It says the service can reduce maintenance costs still being finalized and will be includ- Boeing’s estimated work hours for update instructions in June and the by 50% or more. HAECO Xiamen was named by Aeronau- ed in new Boeing operator bulletins. the wiring changes vary based on the AOA/readiness flight bulletin in July, tical Engineers as an authorized conver- The mandates exclude maintenance- aircraft model and configuration but following consultations with the FAA. sion center and will be operating two lines related work that operators must range 160-200 hr. per aircraft—more Operators and Boeing have begun do- UIA’s MRO Subsidiary Approved by EASA starting in April 2021, increasing Aeronauti- conduct to ready stored aircraft for than twice the FAA’s draft-rule esti- ing some of the required work in an- line flying. mate of 79 hr. per aircraft. The Boeing ticipation of the agency approving the A subsidiary of Ukraine International Airlines (UIA) has become the first cal Engineers’ capacity to 14 simultaneous MRO provider in the country to receive European Union Aviation Safety Most of the required work has no bulletin assumes most of the work will MAX changes and clearing the model Agency (EASA) Part 145 certification for base maintenance services. lines at five facilities. direct link to the two fatal accidents, be done by four-person teams, suggest- to return to revenue service sometime MAU Technik, launched by the carrier in 2017, will now be able to maintain Lion Air Flight 610 in October 2018 and ing each aircraft will require 4-5 days in the next few months. The global commercial aircraft registered in the European Union. Since its inception, Joramco was selected by the Ryanair Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 in March of work. grounding forced airlines to park 385 the company has carried out a mix of UIA fleet work and third-party line and Group to perform heavy checks on five 2019, that led regulators to ground Another SB explains a MAX flight- in-service MAXs, and Boeing has more base maintenance services for local operators based in Ukraine from its base the fleet and Boeing to halt deliveries deck display system (MDS) software than 450 undelivered aircraft in stor- Boeing 737NGs and seven Airbus A320s at Kiev’s Boryspil Airport. With the new approval, MAU Technik will be able 18 months ago. Operators will spend up update that changes how the MAX’s age awaiting delivery to customers. to undertake base maintenance on Boeing 737-700, -800 and -900 aircraft through March 2021. to 200 work hours per aircraft modi- angle-of-attack (AOA) disagree alert The FAA’s draft directive’s public along with Embraer 190 aircraft in accordance with EASA requirements. fying wire bundles that do not meet functions. The update requires less comment period runs until Sept. 21. Algirds Mikelsons, CEO of MAU Technik, says that despite difficulties re- electrical wiring interconnection sys- than 1 hr. per aircraft. The agency, which is not operating on lated to COVID-19 that have affected the entire industry, the company has Lufthansa Technik extended its 737NG tem (EWIS) separation standards put A third SB covers an AOA sensor a specific timeline, will then make nec- further plans to bolster its offerings. “Next, we shall improve marketing and Total Base Maintenance Support contract in place in 2007 and applicable to the system test and an operational readi- essary changes and issue a final version sales so that more companies may use our capabilities to receive quality with Norwegian. MAXs, the Boeing document shows. ness flight. The AOA test should follow service and advantages in a lower cost base,” he says. of the rule, incorporating the FCC soft-

“A simultaneous short circuit be- a MAX aircraft maintenance manual ware and training requirements. Magnetic MRO was selected by BOC tween the [horizontal stabilizer arm], procedure added in July, the SB said. Efforts to have the MAX approved Aviation to provide continuing airworthi- one of the [stabilizer control] signal Estimated time for the test is 40 hr., by regulators are slated to check off Azul Opens New MRO Center in Sao Paulo lines, and a 28-volt direct current which Boeing breaks down as one five- a major milestone in mid-September. ness management organization services. Brazilian airline Azul has opened a new MRO center at Viracopos Interna- source, will cause uncommanded stabi- person team working eight hours. The Joint Operations Evaluation tional Airport in Sao Paulo, which it says is the largest MRO complex con- The first 737NG has been sent to Tallinn. lizer movement, and potentially result The operational readiness flight, to Board, including pilots from Brazilian, structed in Brazil in the last 40 years. The $35 million investment is aimed at in a stabilizer trim runaway,” Boeing be conducted after all other work is Canadian, European, and U.S. regula- improving maintenance efficiencies and better supporting Azul’s fleet. explains in the SB detailing the chang- accomplished, includes “flaps retract- tors, will evaluate proposed new train- Construction on the 377,000-ft.2 Piedmont Propulsion Systems and MRO center, designed by Ghafari Associ- es. “Physical separation of the horizon- ed flight at or above 20,000 ft. Mean ing during 10 days of simulator trials ates, began in 2018 and was completed this year despite some delays related Malaysia Airlines signed a joint venture tal stabilizer arm and control wiring Sea Level,” the SB explains. System outside of London, England. Feedback to COVID-19. In addition to a hangar that can accommodate one widebody the memorandum of understanding to provide implemented by these changes will tests should begin during pre-flight, from the trials, which will follow flight size of an Airbus A350 alongside two or three narrowbodies or three or four ATR/Dash 8 propeller maintenance for Fire- ATRs or Embraer E-Jets, the complex features support spaces for technical ensure that uncommanded stabilizer including brakes and steering, extend tests by Canadian and European reg- shops, logistics management, administrative areas, a technical training center fly/MASwings and third parties. The airline motion and a stabilizer runaway can- through the flight itself and continue ulatory representatives, will be used and management and engineering offices. will manage the supply chain of OEM re- not result from a single EWIS failure.” following arrival. The flight should use by the FAA to help finalize initial and Azul says the hangar has been certified for Airbus A320neo checks and placement parts. Instructions differ slightly between “normal procedures and appropriate recurrent training requirements for is expected to be certified for the A330neo by year-end. It intends to have the 737-8 and 737-9, but the general fix supplementary procedures as needed,” all MAX pilots. c 75 technicians for each line in the hangar, along with 20-25 support staff. c Contract Source: SpeedNews is the same. On the 737-8, it involves Boeing says. —Sean Broderick

MRO4 INSIDEMRO SEPTEMBER 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO AviationWeek.com/MRO INSIDEMRO SEPTEMBER 2020 MRO5 InsideMRO Safety & Regulatory

ARSA UPDATE Create the Best

QUICKLY FOLLOWING ARSA’S 2020 Engage government for industry tions, ARSA will seek input. Once the Annual Conference in March, with its relief. In the U.S., ARSA advocates recommendations are made, you can usual focus on the aviation mainte- for the future of aviation even as busi- help make them a reality. Stay tuned. nance workforce crisis, things changed nesses struggle to survive the present. dramatically. Much of the industry ARSA’s survey assessing the impact of Follow through with existing efforts. went from urgently seeking new hires the current crisis described the ways The FAA reauthorization process estab- to desperately looking for ways to pay the CARES Act has benefited much of lished a grant program to invest in avia- current employees. In the first half of the industry. You can add pressure on tion technician career development. this year, staffing cuts may have put both the Congress and the Executive With the program authorized and some 50,000 maintenance technicians Branch to address these problems funds appropriated, ARSA and its al- out of work just in the U.S. by sharing the information from arsa. lies are pushing the FAA to implement Despite this seminal shift in the org/covid-relief with your elected of- the program—$5 million is available short-term employment outlook, the ficials. (Find congressional contact this year for distribution—and ensure original crisis isn’t over—in fact, it has information at govtrack.us/congress/ its long-term future through continued been amplified. Market recovery and members/map) funding. A letter to your congressio- sustainability depend on developing nal representative asking where the robust talent pipelines. Many experi- Update technician school curricu- agency is in its process wouldn’t hurt. enced technicians have accepted ear- lum. ARSA is working to require an ly retirement options or transitioned update to 14 CFR Part 147, the regu- Embrace new technology. Use the out of full-time employment and will lation that establishes maintenance industry’s two-year-old effort to ob- never return. The remaining work- technician school requirements. The tain FAA acknowledgment that re- force may not come back to aviation, rule and its curriculum haven’t been mote-connectivity tools are accept- following a long-troublesome trend updated in 50 years; overhauling it able for use under the current rules. for workers whose skills transfer eas- will ensure technicians of the future Once U.S. regulators recognize this ily to other technically advanced and are better prepared for careers in the reality, the industry must implement more stable employment options. 21st century aerospace industry. You technologies that support business The additional loss of experience only can support those efforts, too, by fol- operations respecting the “new nor- makes recruitment and development lowing the steps outlined by the Avia- mal” of social distancing. problems more serious. tion Technician Education Council at A strong workforce will power recov- As work comes back, who will be atec-amt.org/news/reform147 ery and sustainability for the mainte- around to do it? nance community. Building a baseline To answer that question, we need Use workforce programs for change. of technical knowledge and awareness to use the current crisis to avert the As mandated by the 2018 FAA Re- of skills-based value will give the indus- future one. We need to worry less authorization Act, the Transportation try its needed talent pool. We can have about whether workers stay within Department created and appointed the best once we create the best. c the walls of aviation or take their skills representatives to the Women in Avi- to another industry needing talented ation Advisory Board and the Youth To learn more about these efforts or technicians. It means getting back to Access to American Jobs in Aviation share the work you are doing on be- the skills-based education that has Task Force. Those bodies will be ve- half of the industry, reach out to me proven sustainable—including invest- hicles to advance improvements in directly at [email protected]. ing in apprenticeship programs; job government and industry policies for shadowing; local, national and inter- technical career development. ARSA Brett Levanto is vice president of op- national partnerships; and constant is represented on the “youth” panel erations at Obadal, Filler, MacLeod internal and external education. and has colleagues supporting the & Klein, managing communications To do that, we need to support women’s effort. All will push for avia- for regulatory and legislative policy long-term workforce training efforts tion engagement programs that start initiatives. He provides strategic sup- now. These are the next steps we young and never stop. As these work- port for the Aeronautical Repair Station need to take. force bodies develop recommenda- Association.

MRO6 INSIDEMRO SEPTEMBER 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO InsideMRO Safety & Regulatory

Custom-repaired flange: ARSA UPDATE Thousands of dollars saved. Create the Best

QUICKLY FOLLOWING ARSA’S 2020 Engage government for industry tions, ARSA will seek input. Once the Annual Conference in March, with its relief. In the U.S., ARSA advocates recommendations are made, you can usual focus on the aviation mainte- for the future of aviation even as busi- help make them a reality. Stay tuned. nance workforce crisis, things changed nesses struggle to survive the present. dramatically. Much of the industry ARSA’s survey assessing the impact of Follow through with existing efforts. went from urgently seeking new hires the current crisis described the ways The FAA reauthorization process estab- to desperately looking for ways to pay the CARES Act has benefited much of lished a grant program to invest in avia- current employees. In the first half of the industry. You can add pressure on tion technician career development. this year, staffing cuts may have put both the Congress and the Executive With the program authorized and some 50,000 maintenance technicians Branch to address these problems funds appropriated, ARSA and its al- out of work just in the U.S. by sharing the information from arsa. lies are pushing the FAA to implement Despite this seminal shift in the org/covid-relief with your elected of- the program—$5 million is available short-term employment outlook, the ficials. (Find congressional contact this year for distribution—and ensure original crisis isn’t over—in fact, it has information at govtrack.us/congress/ its long-term future through continued been amplified. Market recovery and members/map) funding. A letter to your congressio- sustainability depend on developing nal representative asking where the robust talent pipelines. Many experi- Update technician school curricu- agency is in its process wouldn’t hurt. enced technicians have accepted ear- lum. ARSA is working to require an ly retirement options or transitioned update to 14 CFR Part 147, the regu- Embrace new technology. Use the out of full-time employment and will lation that establishes maintenance industry’s two-year-old effort to ob- never return. The remaining work- technician school requirements. The tain FAA acknowledgment that re- force may not come back to aviation, rule and its curriculum haven’t been mote-connectivity tools are accept- following a long-troublesome trend updated in 50 years; overhauling it able for use under the current rules. for workers whose skills transfer eas- will ensure technicians of the future Once U.S. regulators recognize this ily to other technically advanced and are better prepared for careers in the reality, the industry must implement more stable employment options. 21st century aerospace industry. You technologies that support business The additional loss of experience only can support those efforts, too, by fol- operations respecting the “new nor- makes recruitment and development lowing the steps outlined by the Avia- mal” of social distancing. problems more serious. tion Technician Education Council at A strong workforce will power recov- As work comes back, who will be atec-amt.org/news/reform147 ery and sustainability for the mainte- around to do it? nance community. Building a baseline To answer that question, we need Use workforce programs for change. of technical knowledge and awareness to use the current crisis to avert the As mandated by the 2018 FAA Re- of skills-based value will give the indus- future one. We need to worry less authorization Act, the Transportation try its needed talent pool. We can have about whether workers stay within Department created and appointed the best once we create the best. c Longer-lasting compressor shroud: Corrosion-free bearing plate: the walls of aviation or take their skills representatives to the Women in Avi- More uptime for your fleet. to another industry needing talented ation Advisory Board and the Youth To learn more about these efforts or Hundreds of cool, technicians. It means getting back to Access to American Jobs in Aviation share the work you are doing on be- comfortable passengers. the skills-based education that has Task Force. Those bodies will be ve- half of the industry, reach out to me proven sustainable—including invest- hicles to advance improvements in directly at [email protected]. ing in apprenticeship programs; job government and industry policies for shadowing; local, national and inter- technical career development. ARSA Brett Levanto is vice president of op- national partnerships; and constant is represented on the “youth” panel erations at Obadal, Filler, MacLeod A small component repair that internal and external education. and has colleagues supporting the & Klein, managing communications To do that, we need to support women’s effort. All will push for avia- for regulatory and legislative policy translates into big savings. long-term workforce training efforts tion engagement programs that start initiatives. He provides strategic sup- We know a lot about your air cycle machine. Like that when one isn’t working, passengers now. These are the next steps we young and never stop. As these work- port for the Aeronautical Repair Station will get heated. Or that our DER repair costs 50 percent less than the standard OEM need to take. force bodies develop recommenda- Association. replacement — and lasts longer. So, if you want an MRO that will give your bottom line a lift, visit DeltaTechOps.com and learn how our Oper-chanics mindset can work for you.

MRO6 INSIDEMRO SEPTEMBER 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO InsideMRO Airline Insight JAL Engineering As with most carriers, Japan Airlines (JAL) has had to make major fleet adjustments in response to a sharp traffic decline. Schedules have changed, flying hours have been reduced, and many widebodies are parked. JAL Engineering executives outline the carrier’s MRO operation and how it has been affected by the COVID-19 crisis.

Does JAL do all of its airframe heavy There are two hangars each at Tokyo maintenance or are some heavy Narita and Tokyo Haneda airports, checks contracted out? and there is one hangar at Osaka Itami Airport. Currently, heavy maintenance is performed in Japan. Prior to the global Do you plan any expansion at these pandemic, JAL did the majority of locations? heavy airframe maintenance in Japan but also contracted some work over- We have no immediate plans to expand Japan Airlines has increased its seas on an overflow basis. Because of the facilities. domestic flights since June, but the the strict quarantine and border con- recovery has slowed due to a second trol measures in place, JAL has been Does JAL handle heavy maintenance wave of coronavirus cases. handling all heavy maintenance duties on Boeing 787s, and does it plan to do in Japan since March. its own heavy checks on Airbus A350s? There are no set numbers of parked aircraft, as JAL has been operating Where did the contracted work go? Yes, JAL can handle [this] heavy main- approximately 70% of its domestic net- tenance in Japan. work on a daily basis and has been oper- To China (TAECO) and Singapore ating around 800 cargo-only flights per (SASCO). Are there any new MRO capabilities or month, including international services. technology that you have introduced However, as JAL is operating only 10% What about engine heavy mainte- recently? of its international [passenger] network nance—does JAL typically handle this at this time, many widebodies in inter- itself? Last year, JAL conducted a virtual national configuration are either parked reality (VR) maintenance training in Japan or used only for cargo flights. As with the answer above, heavy main- program. VR technology was used to tenance can be handled in Japan, as train engineers on the Embraer 170 Are some of the 787s and Boeing 777s well as overseas. and 190 aircraft. JAL and Toshiba being used operationally? System Technologies Corp. developed Does JAL do any third-party heavy a VR simulation of an engine run-up JAL is operating 787s on domestic and maintenance work, and does it plan to scenario. Through the trial, the carrier international flights, and 777s on in- add more? aimed to improve mechanics’ skills by ternational routes. Revised operating providing an immersive learning envi- schedules mean an aircraft may spend JAL has contracts with over 50 ronment even when these aircraft are a night at an overseas airport and re- domestic and/or international air- not available in the hangar. Increasing turn the next day, versus operating re- lines to conduct maintenance work reliability means there are fewer op- turn flights to Japan two hours after in Japan. The level of maintenance portunities now for engineers to work landing at the overseas destination. work depends on each agreement, on actual aircraft. but includes general repairs as well How has your engineering workload as engine maintenance agreements. Are you seeking any new certifications changed with so many aircraft parked? This is mostly for general [or line] to work on additional airframe types? maintenance for aircraft flying to In general, regular aircraft main- Japan. In addition to these custom- Currently, we have the certifications tenance is performed based on the ers, JAL Engineering will oversee we need. We will train and receive ad- number of flights or hours operated. maintenance duties for its new ditional certifications as needed based However, there are many duties we [long-haul low-cost carrier] subsid- on the company’s decisions on future perform regardless of the number iary, Zipair Tokyo. aircraft purchases. of flights, and for parked/stored aircraft. These include electrical system How many hangars does JAL have at Approximately how many aircraft has maintenance; engine maintenance and its main MRO facilities? JAL parked due to the pandemic? regular checks; lubricant maintenance

MRO8 INSIDEMRO SEPTEMBER 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO Japan Airlines Fact File InsideMRO Airline Insight HEADQUARTERS: Shinagawa, Tokyo PRESIDENT: Yuji Akasaka commuting, staff are encouraged ALLIANCE: Oneworld to conduct online training and FISCAL YEAR GROUP PROFIT (2019): JAL Engineering use educational training materi- ¥53.4 billion ($503.2 million) als (not focused on maintenance FLEET, IN SERVICE AND STORED: As with most carriers, Japan Airlines (JAL) has had to make major matters only) provided by the Airbus A350-900: six (12 on order) company. [Regarding travel], fleet adjustments in response to a sharp traffic decline. Schedules have Airbus A350-1000: (13 on order) there are difficulties in sending changed, flying hours have been reduced, and many widebodies are Boeing 737-800: 48 staff overseas to support mainte- Boeing 767-300: four parked. JAL Engineering executives outline the carrier’s MRO nance duties, but these needs are Boeing 767-300ER: 29 operation and how it has been affected by the COVID-19 crisis. limited at the moment due to the Boeing 777-200: 10 pandemic. Boeing 777-200ER: 11 Does JAL do all of its airframe heavy There are two hangars each at Tokyo Boeing 777-300: four maintenance or are some heavy Narita and Tokyo Haneda airports, Have your engineering logistics or Boeing 777-300ER: 13 checks contracted out? and there is one hangar at Osaka parts supply chains been affected Boeing 787-8: 27 (two on order) Itami Airport. during the COVID-19 crisis? Boeing 787-9: 20 (three on order) Currently, heavy maintenance is performed in Japan. Prior to the global Do you plan any expansion at these Note: Fleet total is JAL only, not group total. We have had no major issues with pandemic, JAL did the majority of locations? Source: Aviation Week Fleet database and Japan Airlines supply. heavy airframe maintenance in Japan CHARLY TRIBALLEAU/AFP/GETTY IMAGES but also contracted some work over- We have no immediate plans to expand Japan Airlines has increased its Has the COVID-19 crisis led to any seas on an overflow basis. Because of the facilities. domestic flights since June, but the on parts; maintenance of parts includ- ments affected how your engineering long-term changes in your MRO prac- the strict quarantine and border con- recovery has slowed due to a second ing tires; removal of any mold that may staff work? tices, or approach to outsourcing? trol measures in place, JAL has been Does JAL handle heavy maintenance wave of coronavirus cases. build up on parked aircraft, and inte- handling all heavy maintenance duties on Boeing 787s, and does it plan to do rior cleaning. The company has proactively imple- Yes; we have decreased outsourcing in Japan since March. its own heavy checks on Airbus A350s? There are no set numbers of parked mented social-distancing measures for the time being. When travel demand aircraft, as JAL has been operating Have social distancing, travel restric- in the workplace and given staff the returns, the company may need to re- Where did the contracted work go? Yes, JAL can handle [this] heavy main- approximately 70% of its domestic net- tions or other new workplace require- ability to telecommute. While tele - view outsourcing contracts again. c tenance in Japan. work on a daily basis and has been oper- To China (TAECO) and Singapore ating around 800 cargo-only flights per (SASCO). Are there any new MRO capabilities or month, including international services. technology that you have introduced However, as JAL is operating only 10% What about engine heavy mainte- recently? of its international [passenger] network nance—does JAL typically handle this at this time, many widebodies in inter- itself? Last year, JAL conducted a virtual national configuration are either parked reality (VR) maintenance training in Japan or used only for cargo flights. As with the answer above, heavy main- program. VR technology was used to tenance can be handled in Japan, as train engineers on the Embraer 170 Are some of the 787s and Boeing 777s well as overseas. and 190 aircraft. JAL and Toshiba being used operationally? System Technologies Corp. developed Does JAL do any third-party heavy a VR simulation of an engine run-up JAL is operating 787s on domestic and maintenance work, and does it plan to scenario. Through the trial, the carrier international flights, and 777s on in- add more? aimed to improve mechanics’ skills by ternational routes. Revised operating providing an immersive learning envi- schedules mean an aircraft may spend JAL has contracts with over 50 ronment even when these aircraft are a night at an overseas airport and re- domestic and/or international air- not available in the hangar. Increasing turn the next day, versus operating re- lines to conduct maintenance work reliability means there are fewer op- turn flights to Japan two hours after in Japan. The level of maintenance portunities now for engineers to work landing at the overseas destination. work depends on each agreement, on actual aircraft. but includes general repairs as well How has your engineering workload as engine maintenance agreements. Are you seeking any new certifications changed with so many aircraft parked? This is mostly for general [or line] to work on additional airframe types? maintenance for aircraft flying to In general, regular aircraft main- Your partner in the Japan. In addition to these custom- Currently, we have the certifications tenance is performed based on the ers, JAL Engineering will oversee we need. We will train and receive ad- number of flights or hours operated. maintenance duties for its new ditional certifications as needed based However, there are many duties we aircraft lifecycle [long-haul low-cost carrier] subsid- on the company’s decisions on future perform regardless of the number iary, Zipair Tokyo. aircraft purchases. of flights, and for parked/stored aircraft. These include electrical system TriumphGroup.com

How many hangars does JAL have at Approximately how many aircraft has maintenance; engine maintenance and @TriumphGroup @triumphgroup Triumph Group its main MRO facilities? JAL parked due to the pandemic? regular checks; lubricant maintenance

MRO8 INSIDEMRO SEPTEMBER 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO AviationWeek.com/MRO INSIDEMRO SEPTEMBER 2020 MRO9 InsideMRO Supply Chain A New Digital Dawn The quest for better visibility across the aftermarket is leading to expanded digital options and tools

MRO INSIDEMRO SEPTEMBER 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO InsideMRO Supply Chain A New Digital Dawn The quest for better visibility across the aftermarket is leading to expanded digital options and tools

anaging an MRO supply chain made Naturally, shifting demand brought about by COVID-19 is up of multiple players spanning a leading to di erent supply chain approaches, particularly from MROs seeking better cross-border and time-zone connectivity. global network of facilities and line By embracing digital innovation, MROs hope to gain greater stations can be a complex and chal- visibility into their operations—a process that could accelerate Mlenging enterprise. further due to the changes brought about by the pandemic. This trend is already being seen by Eric-Jan Schmidt of ILS, For instance, a common problem for an MRO provider is which has provided an inventory locator service for more than ensuring the availability and delivery of necessary replace- 35 years . He says demand for certain services has increased ment parts and maintenance materials on time and at the since the outbreak of the novel coronavirus. Specifi cally, he is location where they are needed. seeing greater interest in ILS’ IPC Analyzer, which helps both New tools for supply chain and parts management will Should a disruption occur, keeping the part from reach- buyers and sellers gauge their respective opportunity windows make the process more transparent and e cient. ing its destination on time, the customer will be a ected by for selling, dismantling costs and resale values. “A direct result the delay, and the provider of the part in turn will incur ad- of the large number of aircraft parked is the likely increase of LINE ART RATTIANEAPUN/SHUTTERSTC INC PHT IE STC/GETTY IMAGES ditional expedited shipping costs to ensure the component frame and engine retirements and the demand and supply im- Software, which the carrier rolled out in 2011. Operating six aircraft means it seeks to take advantage of economies reaches its destination as soon as possible. This scenario pact this will have for specifi c products in specifi c geographic within a broad framework, the package covers both long- of scale when acquiring parts from its vendors. Much of is also particularly bad news for the MRO, which typically regions or segments,” he says. In addition, Schmidt has seen and short-term planning and minimum equipment list its parts supply emanates from German MRO Lufthansa wants the part immediately because it often does not hold growing requests for inventory-stocking support, mainly from management, up to the creation and management of work Technik, with an agreement covering pool access, home- much inventory in order to minimize costs . parts-stocking companies. “Particularly those with large in- packages, orders and task-card issuance both for aircraft base kit and repair and overhaul services, while its manage- Underpinning these situations is a cost-conscious envi- ventories increasingly need real-time fair market value data and components. “It’s also helping us in managing stock ment software is supplied by RAAS from AIS. “Our rotable ronment, given the relatively small margins associated with to support their credit facilities,” he says. levels and [issuing] relevant repair orders for removed contract takes much of the complexity out of our parts sup- the commercial aftermarket. “Customers are looking to re- Most MRO operations use enterprise resource planning components, both for internal repair departments and for ply management and allows us to benefi t from scale that we duce their cost by all means,” says Didier Granger, CEO of (ERP) systems for functions such as sales quoting and ac- external repair stations,” Quaranta says. would otherwise not enjoy,” Borowski says. OEMServices, which provides MRO services encompassing counting, along with more specialized MRO management Since rolling out the AMOS product some nine years ago, Even so, he says Flair Airlines is reviewing ways to man- aircraft components and logistics covering the supply chain software developed to track maintenance orders and orga- Alitalia says the consolidated MRO software has brought age its maintenance more e ectively as its fl eet grows and between the OEMs and the airlines. “But they [airlines] also nize inventory. Farsound’s Kelsey says that having an ERP about markedly improved visibility. “Previously, we were may look to some of the broader ecosystem packages in want to upgrade the quality of their purchases at the same system tailored to fi t an organization is extremely impor- using around 27 di erent types of software to manage main- the future. He identifi es several areas ripe for greater vis- time, because they know that the quality of their aircraft and tant, given all the changing data companies are continuously tenance activities not linked to each other and therefore ibility across the Edmonton-headquartered carrier’s supply the value of their inventory will be linked to these choices.” receiving. He says Farsound invested heavily in a Microsoft completely ine ective in gaining visibility on maintenance chain, including: “Visibility and availability of used parts, Dynamics Nav package a few years ago. “We have tailored operations. Also, [it helps] in areas such as rebuilding the availability of low-use, high-dollar items without having to MA O O our business around this, and as we expand, we can grow maintenance history of a certain component, in case of need purchase them, and the ability to identify pending failures The partial shutdown of commercial air transport due to the within Microsoft Dynamics,” he explains. As is becoming such as back-to-birth traceability ,” he adds. and improved troubleshooting.” COVID-19 crisis, which resulted in nearly 80% of the global increasingly common, the company has since moved this Quaranta believes systems like these give its mainte- passenger fl eet being grounded in May, not only battered ERP system up to the cloud, enabling remote usage any- nance division, which has a roughly 60/40% third-party/ A OR airline revenues but inevitably disrupted the global supply where across the world and around the clock. in-house Alitalia fl eet MRO split, enough visibility across its Naturally, demand for greater visibility is leading to ex- chain. “Manufacturers’ lead times have started to increase, Citing the primary challenges of running an MRO supply operation but says other initiatives are underway to drive panded options from specialist software vendors but also and the OEMs are also fi nding it hard to achieve their nor- chain as obtaining parts just in time, managing lead times this objective further. “We use our enormous amount of from well-resourced MROs looking to bolster their digital mal fi ve-day turnaround, all of which a ects MROs,” says for parts availability and general overspending, Vincenzo maintenance data and correlate between them to create service o erings. These maintenance providers include Lee Kelsey, director at UK-based Farsound Aviation, which Quaranta, head of maintenance and engineering at Alita- predictive algorithms that allow us to build preventive and Lufthansa Technik, which, as part of its ongoing digital specializes in component supply and supply chain consult- lia, runs its operation using two main tools that specifi - predictive maintenance tools,” Quaranta says. efforts, brought its open-source data-sharing platform ing and includes Iberia and HAESL as customers. “Total cally target greater visibility into its aftermarket business. For airlines operating on a smaller scale without the in- Aviatar to market in 2017 in partnership with Palantir. acquisition costs [of components] are also becoming more The airline uses SAP software to manage and monitor its house maintenance setup of their larger contemporaries, The platform o ers a suite of products for airlines, MRO important as both airline maintenance divisions and non- orders and inventory, along with other functions such as juggling the right software with tailored maintenance con- providers , OEMs and lessors ranging from predictive main- airline-a liated MROs have cut overhead due to C OVID-19.” fi nance and human resources. tracts serves an especially critical function. Guy Borowski, tenance to fulfi llment and automated solutions to improve Another consequence is payment deferrals on MRO services Alitalia’s MRO activities are tied together by AMOS head of engineering and maintenance at Canada-based Flair customer access to pool stock, material planning solutions and parts from airlines looking to preserve liquidity. MRO management software, developed by Swiss Aviation Airlines, says that being a small carrier with a fl eet of just and dedicated home-base stocks.

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“We run a big database that includes operational, ma- In the same year, Boeing rolled out its AnalytX solution, terial-related and supply-chain-related information for which, unlike Skywise, was less of a data platform and more components from more than 5,000 aircraft on a regular a collection of digital solutions and services including more basis,” says Frank Martens, head of customer development than 130 related applications. One of these is its mainte- for digital products at Lufthansa Technik. “Every change nance-focused application Airplane Health Management, of pattern, whether it is flight schedules of airlines, new which identifies maintenance needs in advance using predic- component modifications or changes in our supply chain, tive algorithms before delivering the needed components. is fed into our self-learning algorithm and is utilized to Duane Wehking, vice president of digital solutions and optimize our material stock.” information technology and data analytics business part- The predictive maintenance part of the offering is widely nerships for Boeing Global Services, believes that in the seen as a boon for forecasting failures, thus giving inventory commercial aviation segment, collecting, analyzing and managers better foresight about where to stock parts by re- leveraging data produced by aircraft will be paramount gion. However, industry adoption of predictive maintenance in increasing efficiency for maintenance work, improving platforms remains sluggish. “The number of airlines using safety and reliability, managing MRO records and lower- predictive solutions is limited but growing fast,” Martens ing overall operating costs. “Commercial airlines spend says. “Many visionary airlines are looking at such solutions 2-4% of their revenues upgrading information services right now, but the offerings of real predictive maintenance and analytics solutions, and we see this continuing to are limited. Many are just offering digital results without a grow,” he says. direct connection to maintenance actions.” Given the abundance of data generated by their new-gen- BLOCKCHAIN eration aircraft types, along with the high volumes of parts If predictive maintenance can provide ways to better fore- stocks being moved around to different locations, airframe cast component failures, then blockchain is seen by some OEMs are also developing a series of digital offerings. To as the answer to improving supply chain transparency and much fanfare, Airbus launched its Skywise open-source data traceability across a part’s life cycle. Characterized as a platform in 2017 aimed at connecting inflight, engineering, shared ledger offering users a complete, time-stamped re- and operations data in a single ecosystem. Three years after cord of transactions and processes within it, the technology its launch, its user base has grown to more than 100 airlines. is only just beginning to be adopted across aviation.

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Amrul Zeﬂ in Anim Nur Ashikin Bt Ben Gan Jeffrey Lam Kate Schaefer Accountable Manager, Mohammad Ariff Regional Marketing Deputy President, Vice President of Sapura Technics Head, CAMO, Executive, Aerospace, Specialty Products Engineering and Rolls Royce ST Engineering & Services, Boeing Maintenance Department, Fireﬂ y Airlines Co-located with Multiple Entry Points for Access mroasia.aviationweek.com #MROAP |

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“We run a big database that includes operational, ma- In the same year, Boeing rolled out its AnalytX solution, Nevertheless, interest in the concept is evident, with AFI chain tools as the segment seeks to become better connect- terial-related and supply-chain-related information for which, unlike Skywise, was less of a data platform and more KLM E&M, Honeywell and GE Aviation just some of the af- ed across multiple entities. “The need is to create links that components from more than 5,000 aircraft on a regular a collection of digital solutions and services including more termarket players developing blockchain-related platforms connect the diversity of the systems and the various entities basis,” says Frank Martens, head of customer development than 130 related applications. One of these is its mainte- in the past few years with specialist partners. The technol- that operate these systems, including airline engineering for digital products at Lufthansa Technik. “Every change nance-focused application Airplane Health Management, ogy took another step forward in the aftermarket this year departments, MRO providers and vendors,” he says. of pattern, whether it is flight schedules of airlines, new which identifies maintenance needs in advance using predic- through the formation of the SITA-led MRO Blockchain What is certain is that supply chain management prod- component modifications or changes in our supply chain, tive algorithms before delivering the needed components. Alliance, comprising more than a half-dozen aviation enti- uct suppliers will continue to grow their offerings. From is fed into our self-learning algorithm and is utilized to Duane Wehking, vice president of digital solutions and ties including an MRO (HAECO Group), airline (Cathay the perspective of an OEM, Boeing’s Wehking believes the optimize our material stock.” information technology and data analytics business part- Pacific) and software vendor (Ramco Systems). development of integrated products that support airline The predictive maintenance part of the offering is widely nerships for Boeing Global Services, believes that in the While acknowledging that blockchain is in its infancy, operators is on the horizon. “Currently, airline engineers seen as a boon for forecasting failures, thus giving inventory commercial aviation segment, collecting, analyzing and Borowski of Flair Airlines nevertheless believes these types or crew members use multiple applications to complete managers better foresight about where to stock parts by re- leveraging data produced by aircraft will be paramount of developing technologies, along with other platforms, will their daily tasks. Integrating these various products into gion. However, industry adoption of predictive maintenance in increasing efficiency for maintenance work, improving be positive for the MRO supply chain. “Technology will allow a single interface will be more efficient,” he says. “It can platforms remains sluggish. “The number of airlines using safety and reliability, managing MRO records and lower- collaboration among multiple entities to improve efficiencies also become a learning product that features embedded predictive solutions is limited but growing fast,” Martens ing overall operating costs. “Commercial airlines spend and lower costs,” he says. “Safety stock at individual entities machine learning to analyze local data and derive insights says. “Many visionary airlines are looking at such solutions 2-4% of their revenues upgrading information services will continue to decrease, and data will drive operational in real time. Prediction models can move beyond day of right now, but the offerings of real predictive maintenance and analytics solutions, and we see this continuing to decisions that could improve an airline’s reliability.” operations to weeks or months in advance.” are limited. Many are just offering digital results without a grow,” he says. ILS, meanwhile, will look to further expand its product direct connection to maintenance actions.” CONSOLIDATED SERVICES? line. Having developed four new platforms this year alone, Given the abundance of data generated by their new-gen- BLOCKCHAIN Many in the commercial aftermarket, including Alitalia’s Schmidt says more products are likely, with recent custom- eration aircraft types, along with the high volumes of parts If predictive maintenance can provide ways to better fore- Quaranta, expect the COVID-19 crisis will inevitably lead to er demand centering on applications of its intelligence and stocks being moved around to different locations, airframe cast component failures, then blockchain is seen by some the acceleration of digitalization of many MRO processes. data solutions to navigate liquidity-related business needs. OEMs are also developing a series of digital offerings. To as the answer to improving supply chain transparency and “This includes the supply chain, through the utilization of Among these, he anticipates more applications for part- much fanfare, Airbus launched its Skywise open-source data traceability across a part’s life cycle. Characterized as a new technologies and digital applications, such as big data pedigree tracing and autonomous procurement, further platform in 2017 aimed at connecting inflight, engineering, shared ledger offering users a complete, time-stamped re- and predictive maintenance,” he says. developing personalized predictive algorithms and building and operations data in a single ecosystem. Three years after cord of transactions and processes within it, the technology This view is shared by OEMServices’ Granger, who fore- its supply chain hub with integrated workflows designed to its launch, its user base has grown to more than 100 airlines. is only just beginning to be adopted across aviation. sees more functionality being added across digital supply optimize processes and user experiences. c

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Details on thousands Discover maintenance Research operator’s fl eets of contracts covering opportunities, including by tail number, including Amrul Zefl in Anim Nur Ashikin Bt Ben Gan Jeffrey Lam Kate Schaefer 37,000 aircraft and component repairs by age, hours, cycles and Accountable Manager, Regional Marketing Deputy President, Vice President of Mohammad Ariff 80,000 engines. ATA Chapter. lease status. Sapura Technics Head, CAMO, Executive, Aerospace, Specialty Products Engineering and Rolls Royce ST Engineering & Services, Boeing Maintenance Department, Firefl y Airlines Visit aviationweek.com/MROP to schedule your demo. Co-located with Or call: Multiple Entry Points for Access mroasia.aviationweek.com Anne McMahon at +1 646 291 6353, or #MROAP | Thom Clayton +44 (0) 20 7017 6106

MRO12 INSIDEMRO SEPTEMBER 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO AviationWeek.com/MRO INSIDEMRO SEPTEMBER 2020 MRO13 InsideMRO Technology Appetite for Acceleration Despite pandemic-related uncertainty, aviation industry tech accelerators press on with innovation efforts

Lindsay Bjerregaard Chicago

ver the past five years, the aviation industry land- scape has followed in the footsteps of Silicon Valley, O with dozens of specialized startup accelerators and in-house innovation labs popping up across OEMs, airline groups and MROs. Some companies have opted to stick with in-house technology development efforts while others are replicating the Silicon Valley model of investing capital and resources into outside startups, but the focus ultimately remains the same: to nurture emerging technologies in an effort to address aviation industry challenges. Prior to 2020, the industry had plenty of money to burn. However, the International Air Transport Associa- tion projects airlines will lose $84.3 billion this year, while aftermarket providers are reporting a 40-50% decline in Since March, startups in the ATI Boeing Accelerator have second-quarter revenues, and orders for new aircraft and raised more than £6 million ($8 million) in post-program engines have nearly ground to a halt due to unprecedented investment and created over 30 new jobs. numbers of parked aircraft. With so many companies needing to tighten their belts to survive, will the technology innovation opportunities despite reduced demand. “We need vestments in these innovation accelerators be neglected in to invest in the right areas, such as digital transformation favor of core business areas, or will the downturn be an and automation, to improve our competitiveness,” says the opportunity to adopt new technologies even more quickly to gain a competitive advantage? “From an innovator’s perspective, change is the only constant in life,” says Dupsy Abiola, head of global innovation at International Airlines Group (IAG), which established the Hangar 51 accelerator program in 2016. “COVID-19 has presented wide-ranging uncertainty in nearly every industry, but the world and technical possibilities are changing all the time. Innovation is one of the ways that we can embrace and harness change.” Abiola notes that Hangar 51’s fifth program, launching this year, will be a virtual accelerator in light of the pandemic. The program, which enables startups and innovators to work with IAG’s operating companies to solve real-world business challenges, has now incubated 35 companies— more than 60% of which have gone on to further trials, commercial contracts or investment from IAG. Hangar 51 has increased its number of finalists and categories each year, and Abiola notes that contactless travel and connected operations are of particular interest this year. Both SIA Engineering Company (SIAEC) and AFI KLM SIAEC’s RepairJet tool E&M, which operate in-house innovation labs, note that this automates the removal year there is increased focus on technological developments of composite layers for for immediate needs such aircraft disinfection and remote- composite repairs. collaboration solutions. A representative for SIAEC says the pandemic’s impact on the industry has presented in-

MRO14 INSIDEMRO SEPTEMBER 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO InsideMRO Technology ATI BOEING ACCELERATOR PHOTOS Appetite for Acceleration Despite pandemic-related uncertainty, aviation industry tech accelerators press on with innovation efforts

Lindsay Bjerregaard Chicago ver the past five years, the aviation industry land- scape has followed in the footsteps of Silicon Valley, O with dozens of specialized startup accelerators and in-house innovation labs popping up across OEMs, airline groups and MROs. Some companies have opted to stick with in-house technology development efforts while others are replicating the Silicon Valley model of investing capital and resources into outside startups, but the focus ultimately remains the same: to nurture emerging technologies in an effort to address aviation industry challenges. Prior to 2020, the industry had plenty of money to burn. However, the International Air Transport Associa- tion projects airlines will lose $84.3 billion this year, while aftermarket providers are reporting a 40-50% decline in Since March, startups in the ATI Boeing Accelerator have representative. “It is also an opportune time to reimagine, Some of the startups in the ATI Boeing Accelerator second-quarter revenues, and orders for new aircraft and raised more than £6 million ($8 million) in post-program redesign and lean out our processes, leveraging digitaliza- program are investigating blockchain technologies for engines have nearly ground to a halt due to unprecedented investment and created over 30 new jobs. tion and data analytics.” sustainability and traceability of the aviation supply chain. numbers of parked aircraft. With so many companies need- James Kornberg, director of innovation at AFI KLM ing to tighten their belts to survive, will the technology innovation opportunities despite reduced demand. “We need E&M, says the company’s in-house innovation arm—called the pandemic has amplified the need to approach innovation vestments in these innovation accelerators be neglected in to invest in the right areas, such as digital transformation The MRO Lab—was already careful about only pushing de- strategically. “For sure we will have to do more with less favor of core business areas, or will the downturn be an and automation, to improve our competitiveness,” says the velopment on technologies that solved real pain points, and investment available. One large part of our activity is to test opportunity to adopt new technologies even more quickly new solutions without any cash-out or also better use all the to gain a competitive advantage? data available,” says Kornberg. “At the end, to implement “From an innovator’s perspective, change is the only con- the solutions, the return on investment will have to be very stant in life,” says Dupsy Abiola, head of global innovation at good or the investment to keep what we have tested and International Airlines Group (IAG), which established the developed very low. Nevertheless, we continue to identify Hangar 51 accelerator program in 2016. “COVID-19 has pre- and test solutions that can help our operations.” sented wide-ranging uncertainty in nearly every industry, but the world and technical possibilities are changing all MIXED REALITY AND AUTOMATION the time. Innovation is one of the ways that we can embrace Two areas on which both innovation labs are heavily focused and harness change.” right now are robotic process automation and augmented/ Abiola notes that Hangar 51’s fifth program, launching virtual reality (AR/VR). The MRO Lab has implemented this year, will be a virtual accelerator in light of the pan- AR/VR training and has been in the process of testing mobile demic. The program, which enables startups and innovators climbing robots from startup Invert Robotics for aircraft in- to work with IAG’s operating companies to solve real-world spections. Both The MRO Lab and SIAEC are testing drones business challenges, has now incubated 35 companies— for automated visual inspections. According to SIAEC, the more than 60% of which have gone on to further trials, drone trial it conducted in December 2019 at SIA Engineer- commercial contracts or investment from IAG. Hangar 51 ing Philippines reduced inspection time by 80% on average. has increased its number of finalists and categories each SIAEC recently developed a tool called RepairJet to au- year, and Abiola notes that contactless travel and connected tomate the removal of composite layers for repairs, and it operations are of particular interest this year. also implemented a pneumatic tube system to automate de- Both SIA Engineering Company (SIAEC) and AFI KLM livery of small spares between its warehouse, hangars and SIAEC’s RepairJet tool E&M, which operate in-house innovation labs, note that this workshops, which it says has reduced average delivery time automates the removal year there is increased focus on technological developments of composite layers for to 5 min. from 90 min. In late 2019, it deployed VR headsets for immediate needs such aircraft disinfection and remote- composite repairs. to train operational staff on tasks such as opening/closing collaboration solutions. A representative for SIAEC says engine fan cowls, replacing slide rafts and calculating air- the pandemic’s impact on the industry has presented in- craft fuel amounts. SIAEC

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AR specialist Atheer was a part of Hangar 51’s most prove visibility of work status and reduce the work steps recent accelerator round, which ran for 10 weeks in late required from the existing manual processes,” says Ballman. 2019. During the accelerator, Atheer worked with Iberia’s “We were able to streamline how their teams stayed in sync MRO team in Madrid to explore the use of AR to digitalize while reducing the number of work steps—even removing two complex processes: engine incoming inspection—which the ‘productivity quicksand’ of trips back into the office to can take up to 16 hr.—and making structural damage as- deliver that dual-entry paperwork.” sessments of aircraft. According to Atheer, its projects with Ballman notes that the COVID-19 pandemic has proven Iberia helped reduce engine incoming inspection time by even more interesting for the aviation industry’s usage of and 30% and saved 30 min. of time per aircraft-on-ground event investment in technology, since companies are both pausing during structural damage assessments. or embracing new technology depending on their business needs. “One of the fascinating and challenging things about STREAMLINING TURNAROUNDS the industry restarting is the nature of how it’s happening. Two startups devoted to streamlining airline processes and Commercial aviation typically doesn’t do things like large improving communication went through Hangar 51’s ac- increases in operational capacity month-over-month, for celerator last year. Assaia, which uses cameras installed at instance,” he says. “How do you enable network planning airports paired with an artificial intelligence (AI) system to to add capacity to the schedule in a way that engineering analyze turnaround operations and offer predictive analysis and crew scheduling can support? How do we collectively identify and share storage-related failure modes that haven’t even been seen before?” Ballman suggests that a key component in solving current and future challenges will be industry collaboration through innovation accelerators, including via collaboration platforms such as Rolls-Royce’s Yocova, launched by its acceleration hub R2 Data Labs earlier this year.

AFI KLM E&M says its use of remote- collaboration technologies has allowed it to continue operations during the pandemic.

SynapseMX is a launch partner in the platform, and Ballman says Rolls-Royce has “been putting quite a bit of effort into helping the industry form working groups to solve these and other challenges so that we can collectively pull each other back up.” AFI KLM E&M to airlines, was paired with British Airways. It provided the SUPPLY CHAIN TRACEABILITY airline with a video stream and live dashboard to detect turn- One of the aviation industry’s newest incubators, the ATI around events such as line maintenance arriving at the stand. Boeing Accelerator Program, launched last year, right “Before our technology was available, each and every before the pandemic broke out. The accelerator is a joint turnaround had to be actively managed and controlled to effort between Boeing, GKN Aerospace and the Aerospace ensure that no delay occurred during the turnaround pro- Technology Institute to support innovation and growth of cess,” says Max Diez, founder and CEO of Assaia. “Now, startups in the UK’s aerospace ecosystem. The pandemic British Airways is able to monitor several turnarounds at delayed the launch of its second cohort of startups, so the the same time remotely and only act if our system detects program made the most of the situation by extending its an actual problem.” Diez adds that the “management by support for the nine companies from its first cohort as they exception” approach enables more effective use of staff “settled into this new ‘normal,’” the consortium says. Its time, faster corrective action and reduced number and second cohort, which will launch in January 2021, will have magnitude of delays. both physical and virtual elements. SynapseMX, which uses a cloud-based AI platform to ad- Since the accelerator’s first cohort of startups was chosen dress unscheduled maintenance challenges, worked directly from both inside the aerospace ecosystem and adjacent with two organizations under the IAG umbrella. SynapseMX industries such as automotive or oil and gas, one of the CEO Shane Ballman says the nature of the projects entailed emerging areas of interest for Boeing and GKN was using working with both companies at five work groups spanning blockchain technologies to provide better traceability within multiple physical locations across an airport, which caused the supply chain. Startup Circulor, which cut its teeth in “natural bottlenecks in information availability.” tracking and tracing the origin of raw materials used in “Since our focus is on improving maintenance velocity automotive supply chains to help companies improve sus- during unscheduled maintenance (i.e., gate calls), our goal tainability, turned its eye toward solving a number of supply was to increase team coordination across work groups, im- chain challenges for the OEMs.

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AR specialist Atheer was a part of Hangar 51’s most prove visibility of work status and reduce the work steps recent accelerator round, which ran for 10 weeks in late required from the existing manual processes,” says Ballman. 2019. During the accelerator, Atheer worked with Iberia’s “We were able to streamline how their teams stayed in sync MRO team in Madrid to explore the use of AR to digitalize while reducing the number of work steps—even removing two complex processes: engine incoming inspection—which the ‘productivity quicksand’ of trips back into the office to can take up to 16 hr.—and making structural damage as- deliver that dual-entry paperwork.” sessments of aircraft. According to Atheer, its projects with Ballman notes that the COVID-19 pandemic has proven Iberia helped reduce engine incoming inspection time by even more interesting for the aviation industry’s usage of and 30% and saved 30 min. of time per aircraft-on-ground event investment in technology, since companies are both pausing during structural damage assessments. or embracing new technology depending on their business needs. “One of the fascinating and challenging things about We’re the people STREAMLINING TURNAROUNDS the industry restarting is the nature of how it’s happening. Two startups devoted to streamlining airline processes and Commercial aviation typically doesn’t do things like large to keep you flying improving communication went through Hangar 51’s ac- increases in operational capacity month-over-month, for celerator last year. Assaia, which uses cameras installed at instance,” he says. “How do you enable network planning Shannon Engine Support has the world’s largest leasing airports paired with an artificial intelligence (AI) system to to add capacity to the schedule in a way that engineering analyze turnaround operations and offer predictive analysis and crew scheduling can support? How do we collectively portfolio of CFM56 and LEAP engines strategically identify and share storage-related failure modes located across the globe. Short or long-term leases, that haven’t even been seen before?” our tailored solutions are created by people with Ballman suggests that a key component in unrivalled knowledge and expertise, who understand solving current and future challenges will be your business and the strength of partnership. industry collaboration through innovation ac- In challenging times, that’s good to know. celerators, including via collaboration platforms such as Rolls-Royce’s Yocova, launched by its acceleration hub R2 Data Labs earlier this year. SES. A CFM International company. www.ses.ie AFI KLM E&M says its use of remote- collaboration technologies has allowed it to continue operations during the pandemic.

SynapseMX is a launch partner in the platform, and Ballman says Rolls-Royce has “been putting quite a bit of effort into helping the industry form working groups to solve these and other challenges so that we can collectively pull each other back up.” AFI KLM E&M to airlines, was paired with British Airways. It provided the SUPPLY CHAIN TRACEABILITY Julie airline with a video stream and live dashboard to detect turn- One of the aviation industry’s newest incubators, the ATI Julie Dickerson around events such as line maintenance arriving at the stand. Boeing Accelerator Program, launched last year, right Chief Executive Officer “Before our technology was available, each and every before the pandemic broke out. The accelerator is a joint turnaround had to be actively managed and controlled to effort between Boeing, GKN Aerospace and the Aerospace ensure that no delay occurred during the turnaround pro- Technology Institute to support innovation and growth of cess,” says Max Diez, founder and CEO of Assaia. “Now, startups in the UK’s aerospace ecosystem. The pandemic British Airways is able to monitor several turnarounds at delayed the launch of its second cohort of startups, so the the same time remotely and only act if our system detects program made the most of the situation by extending its an actual problem.” Diez adds that the “management by support for the nine companies from its first cohort as they exception” approach enables more effective use of staff “settled into this new ‘normal,’” the consortium says. Its time, faster corrective action and reduced number and second cohort, which will launch in January 2021, will have magnitude of delays. both physical and virtual elements. SynapseMX, which uses a cloud-based AI platform to ad- Since the accelerator’s first cohort of startups was chosen dress unscheduled maintenance challenges, worked directly from both inside the aerospace ecosystem and adjacent with two organizations under the IAG umbrella. SynapseMX industries such as automotive or oil and gas, one of the CEO Shane Ballman says the nature of the projects entailed emerging areas of interest for Boeing and GKN was using working with both companies at five work groups spanning blockchain technologies to provide better traceability within multiple physical locations across an airport, which caused the supply chain. Startup Circulor, which cut its teeth in “natural bottlenecks in information availability.” tracking and tracing the origin of raw materials used in “Since our focus is on improving maintenance velocity automotive supply chains to help companies improve sus- during unscheduled maintenance (i.e., gate calls), our goal tainability, turned its eye toward solving a number of supply was to increase team coordination across work groups, im- chain challenges for the OEMs.

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According to Circulor, its efforts during the accelerator Cornwell. “If we can get there, then it will increase trans- included working with GKN on tracking the carbon foot- parency, resulting in reduced losses from downtime and print within its supply chain, such as emissions related to unplanned maintenance, [an] enhanced secondary market production of aircraft parts and traceability of powder used and improved productivity.” for 3D printing of parts. It also worked with both GKN and He notes that an additional use case Kraken IM has found Boeing on the authenticity and traceability of aircraft parts. through the pandemic is tying remote visual inspections Circulor notes that Boeing in particular was interested in to smart legal contracts, which automatically enforce con- maintenance use cases, such as keeping a better record of ditions specified in code. These contracts include digital the location of aircraft parts so they can be procured more components that enable them to communicate with soft- efficiently as maintenance occurs. ware systems and respond to events that occur physically. Also new to the aerospace industry is Kraken IM, which For instance, says Cornwell, if a company wants to ask for has addressed supply chain traceability issues for industries new information from suppliers such as precise 3D metrol- such as energy and oil and gas. According to its director, Ian ogy data, it could be called out in a smart contract clause. Cornwell, Kraken IM’s software platform creates a set of Cornwell says this means “you can drive behaviors com- transparent digital requirements for a supply chain, mak- mercially, not just as an aspiration” by rewarding suppliers ing it easier for customers to see whether the materials for doing things they have never done before. they receive are what they requested—all while creating “COVID-19 has caused a huge supply chain shock from a “digital birth certificate” for all parts that come from the top to bottom. This has been a double-edged sword,” says supply chain. Cornwell. “As one of our clients described, it’s been ‘digiti- “It’s the first stitches in a digital thread that can give zation by force.’ Tools and processes that might have taken you data for the whole life of the aircraft, from require - months or years to adopt in normal times have been rolled ment through into use. We’re really just getting started, out in days.” While Cornwell says tech spending was initially but where we’d like to get to is the ability to create a digital confined to immediate business-continuity use cases such twin for all the parts and components that get updated as as video-conferencing tools, conversations have begun to the aircraft is maintained, serviced and inspected and move change now that things are starting to normalize. away from the idea of a ‘system of record’ to [a] distributed “There’s a big emphasis on coming out of the other side of ‘ledger of record’ that may involve multiple systems,” says COVID with improved sustainability (economically and en-

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According to Circulor, its efforts during the accelerator Cornwell. “If we can get there, then it will increase trans- vironmentally), resilience and efficiency. included working with GKN on tracking the carbon foot- parency, resulting in reduced losses from downtime and It’s still a bit early to say for certain, but print within its supply chain, such as emissions related to unplanned maintenance, [an] enhanced secondary market the discussions we’re having are that HANGAR 51 production of aircraft parts and traceability of powder used and improved productivity.” technologies that can support these for 3D printing of parts. It also worked with both GKN and He notes that an additional use case Kraken IM has found things are going to be in demand with Boeing on the authenticity and traceability of aircraft parts. through the pandemic is tying remote visual inspections the added bonus that people have real- Circulor notes that Boeing in particular was interested in to smart legal contracts, which automatically enforce con- ized that they can move fast,” says Corn- maintenance use cases, such as keeping a better record of ditions specified in code. These contracts include digital well. “The stresses that supply chains the location of aircraft parts so they can be procured more components that enable them to communicate with soft- have had if anything have started to efficiently as maintenance occurs. ware systems and respond to events that occur physically. drive new behaviors now that the shock Also new to the aerospace industry is Kraken IM, which For instance, says Cornwell, if a company wants to ask for is over.” has addressed supply chain traceability issues for industries new information from suppliers such as precise 3D metrol- Wil Benton, venture and ecosystem such as energy and oil and gas. According to its director, Ian ogy data, it could be called out in a smart contract clause. director of the ATI Boeing Accelerator, Cornwell, Kraken IM’s software platform creates a set of Cornwell says this means “you can drive behaviors com- is seeing similar trends among aero - transparent digital requirements for a supply chain, mak- mercially, not just as an aspiration” by rewarding suppliers space companies cautiously returning ing it easier for customers to see whether the materials for doing things they have never done before. to service. “Investment has started to they receive are what they requested—all while creating “COVID-19 has caused a huge supply chain shock from pick up, proofs of concept are slowly a “digital birth certificate” for all parts that come from the top to bottom. This has been a double-edged sword,” says coming back online, and revenues are supply chain. Cornwell. “As one of our clients described, it’s been ‘digiti- starting to reappear. We’ve also seen “It’s the first stitches in a digital thread that can give zation by force.’ Tools and processes that might have taken some of the more established businesses The MRO Lab is testing Donecle’s drones for aircraft inspections. Donecle also you data for the whole life of the aircraft, from require - months or years to adopt in normal times have been rolled in the industry focus on investing into was selected for the Hangar 51 accelerator. ment through into use. We’re really just getting started, out in days.” While Cornwell says tech spending was initially ‘operations resilience,’ where collabora- but where we’d like to get to is the ability to create a digital confined to immediate business-continuity use cases such tion with startups (and startup-driven innovation) is being the pandemic, or its long-term effects, are yet to be seen and twin for all the parts and components that get updated as as video-conferencing tools, conversations have begun to used to lessen the impact from COVID-19,” he says. are likely to be severe—unlike anything we’ve seen before,” the aircraft is maintained, serviced and inspected and move change now that things are starting to normalize. Although the innovation sector within aerospace is re- he says. “Innovation will be the key to surviving this, so away from the idea of a ‘system of record’ to [a] distributed “There’s a big emphasis on coming out of the other side of maining optimistic, Benton notes that change will not hap- hopefully we [will] see more industry and startup collabora- ‘ledger of record’ that may involve multiple systems,” says COVID with improved sustainability (economically and en- pen overnight. “We aren’t out of the woods. The impact of tion moving forward.” c

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o ce area and especially the changing area. We didn’t see our productivity going down,” Shiao says. ARRA RAR Aviation Week Fleet Data Services he aiwanese carrier prepares its aircraft for estimates CAL now has around 20 aircraft parked or on reserve, mostly lease returns, more caro demand and typhoons the Boeing 737 series. The airline set up a designated team to manage and optimize the demand for aircraft parking based on the trend of flight can- ight months into the outbreak of tenance schedules, adjusting main- cellations, aircraft maintenance re- the COVID-19 pandemic, Taiwan tenance capacity, reviewing time and quirements and relevant regulations. continues to be the only country material management, and managing The airline used 30-day active storage that has the virus under control and equipment and material by setting up guidelines derived from the manufac- has not seen a second-wave outbreak. project plans and savings targets. The turers’ aircraft maintenance manuals However, the wings of its fl ag carrier results are reviewed on a monthly basis. and engineering orders to keep the air- China Airlines (CAL) remain clipped, The EMO has implemented physi- craft in a high state of readiness . and its 2,500-strong Engineering and cal-distancing measures such as work- In the event of an impending Maintenance Organization (EMO) is ing in separate buildings, a “masks-on” typhoon, the EMO will participate in not taking any risks that might hinder policy and recording body tempera- an “ anti- typhoon committee meeting ” its ability to provide MRO capabilities ture twice daily. To prevent a long line held at the CAL control center to de- for the airline. in the canteen, the company caters cide which aircraft will be tied down Paul Shiao, CAL’s assistant vice lunch boxes, and each table can only at Taipei Taoyuan Airport and which president for the maintenance divi- accommodate one person. Shop fl oors, will be flown elsewhere to avoid the strong winds. “To protect aircraft from a typhoon, China Airlines created a designated team to we are not only tying down the air- manage and optimize craft at the airport, but we also are the demand for assigning an engineer to stay in each aircraft parking. aircraft cockpit while the typhoon ar- rives to pressurize fl ight control surfaces to keep it steady on the ground,” Shiao adds. Air cargo continues to be a lifeline for CAL’s revenue and has contributed NT$41 billion ($1.4 billion) to the carrier’s co ers. Until the arrival of the new Boeing 777F due this year, the freighter fl eet is still anchored by 17 Boeing 747-400Fs, all of which are 13- 20 years old. Shiao says manufacturers are committing fewer resources to enhance the 747-400F’s reliability, as the type is gradually being phased out . HINA AIRINES “However, due to CAL EMO’s long sion prior to the pandemic, says the stores and elevators are marked with experience on the type, our 747F’s re- EMO’s plans to renovate its facilities, distance markers to enforce physical liability has been kept satisfactory by including the hangar o ces and mate- distancing between employees. adding more maintenance tasks and rial storage building, have been put on To prevent cross-infection, the shortening the intervals of the manda- hold. It also planned to implement in- workforce is separated into two teams, tory work. In addition, a special task novative projects such as ground sup- and each works every other day and on force has been formed to closely moni- port equipment management systems, di erent aircraft, meaning there is no tor the key components of our freight- an aircraft exterior inspection system chance that two teams will meet each ers for smooth operation,” he says. and a “smart” workshop, all of which other at the same time and space. Spares have taken a longer time to have been paused due to the pandemic. “To further reduce the possibility of arrive during the pandemic, especial- He says the group is tackling a “cost- cross-infection in between, we require ly larger parts that have longer lead down scheme” in fi ve areas, consisting each party to implement disinfection times due to high demand for cargo of contract reviews, streamlining main- measures every day at the public area, space, with the average lead time ap-

MRO INSIDEMRO SEPTEMBER 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO InsideMRO Operations China Airlines overhauls CFM56-7B, CFM56-5C, GE CF6-80C2 and o ce area and especially the changing CF6-80E1 engines. ROA AA area. We didn’t see our productivity go- Shiao has identifi ed two fronts the EMO ing down,” Shiao says. will focus on as it adjusts its strategies for the future. In the area of human re- ARRA RAR sources, the organization is planning to Aviation Week Fleet Data Services fi ne-tune employee roles to better cope he aiwanese carrier prepares its aircraft for estimates CAL now has around 20 with future demand, and it has been aircraft parked or on reserve, mostly conducting both on-the-job and recur- lease returns, more caro demand and typhoons the Boeing 737 series. The airline set rent training over the last few months. up a designated team to manage and It is also adjusting its maintenance optimize the demand for aircraft park- capabilities to meet the airline’s needs ing based on the trend of flight can- while the 30-day active storage plan ight months into the outbreak of tenance schedules, adjusting main- cellations, aircraft maintenance re- continues. To do that, it readies spares the COVID-19 pandemic, Taiwan tenance capacity, reviewing time and quirements and relevant regulations. and reviews individual technicians’ continues to be the only country material management, and managing The airline used 30-day active storage HINA AIRINES qualifications to prepare for future that has the virus under control and equipment and material by setting up guidelines derived from the manufac- proximately two weeks longer than models based on Taiwan Civil Aeronau- lease returns. CAL currently has 10 has not seen a second-wave outbreak. project plans and savings targets. The turers’ aircraft maintenance manuals before. Shiao stresses that the airline tics Administration and manufactur- A330-300s, six 777-300ERs and 15 737- However, the wings of its fl ag carrier results are reviewed on a monthly basis. and engineering orders to keep the air- does not cannibalize parts. er’s guidelines, enabling the aircraft to 800s on lease. China Airlines (CAL) remain clipped, The EMO has implemented physi- craft in a high state of readiness . The task force’s sole purpose is conduct mixed passenger-cargo fl ights The lease returns of the 737-800 are and its 2,500-strong Engineering and cal-distancing measures such as work- In the event of an impending to maximize the freighter dispatch to supplement the carrier’s revenue. also in line with the introduction of the Maintenance Organization (EMO) is ing in separate buildings, a “masks-on” typhoon, the EMO will participate in rate, focusing on maintenance defects While domestic flights continue, Airbus A321neo, with 11 under a memo- not taking any risks that might hinder policy and recording body tempera- an “ anti- typhoon committee meeting ” tracking and corrective measures to most of these are operated by the randum of agreement with Airbus and its ability to provide MRO capabilities ture twice daily. To prevent a long line held at the CAL control center to de- make sure the freighters are always group’s Mandarin Airlines, which fl ies another 14 placed on lease. Shiaosays for the airline. in the canteen, the company caters cide which aircraft will be tied down dispatched on time. the ATR 72 and Embraer 190, hence CAL is now preparing maintenance Paul Shiao, CAL’s assistant vice lunch boxes, and each table can only at Taipei Taoyuan Airport and which The EMO also carried out cabin there is no transfer of engineers capabilit ies for the A321neo as well as president for the maintenance divi- accommodate one person. Shop fl oors, will be flown elsewhere to avoid the modifi cations on Boeing 737-800 and and technicians due to the different the 777F to guarantee a smooth entry strong winds. 777-300ER and Airbus A350-900 type ratings. into service . c “To protect aircraft from a typhoon, China Airlines created a designated team to we are not only tying down the air- manage and optimize craft at the airport, but we also are the demand for assigning an engineer to stay in each aircraft parking. aircraft cockpit while the typhoon ar- rives to pressurize fl ight control surfaces to keep it steady on the ground,” Shiao adds. Air cargo continues to be a lifeline for CAL’s revenue and has contributed R NT$41 billion ($1.4 billion) to the carrier’s co ers. Until the arrival of the new Boeing 777F due this year, the freighter fl eet is still anchored by 17 is the source for relevant insights, news and information powering Boeing 747-400Fs, all of which are 13- SpeedNews commercial aviation. Sent electronically, top executives rely on its unique, quick- 20 years old. Shiao says manufactur- read format to: ers are committing fewer resources to enhance the 747-400F’s reliability, as ➤ Monitor competition with timely announcements from airlines, aviation the type is gradually being phased out . HINA AIRINES suppliers and manufacturers, including aircraft orders & transactions. “However, due to CAL EMO’s long sion prior to the pandemic, says the stores and elevators are marked with experience on the type, our 747F’s re- ➤ Uncover new business opportunities resulting from merger and acquisition EMO’s plans to renovate its facilities, distance markers to enforce physical liability has been kept satisfactory by activity, and product developments. including the hangar o ces and mate- distancing between employees. adding more maintenance tasks and ➤ Connect and network with industry leaders at one of SpeedNews’ world class rial storage building, have been put on To prevent cross-infection, the shortening the intervals of the manda- events. hold. It also planned to implement in- workforce is separated into two teams, tory work. In addition, a special task novative projects such as ground sup- and each works every other day and on force has been formed to closely moni- port equipment management systems, di erent aircraft, meaning there is no tor the key components of our freight- an aircraft exterior inspection system chance that two teams will meet each ers for smooth operation,” he says. and a “smart” workshop, all of which other at the same time and space. Spares have taken a longer time to have been paused due to the pandemic. “To further reduce the possibility of arrive during the pandemic, especial- M He says the group is tackling a “cost- cross-infection in between, we require ly larger parts that have longer lead down scheme” in fi ve areas, consisting each party to implement disinfection times due to high demand for cargo of contract reviews, streamlining main- measures every day at the public area, space, with the average lead time ap-

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“Even though new-build production CFM56 Repairs of the CFM56 is winding down [with 84 engines delivered by CFM Inter- national during the first six months of Outlook 2020, compared to 258 engines during the first half of 2019], the engine still CFM fleet MRO is on the upswing has a long service life ahead of it, with over 50% of CFM56-5B/-7B engines yet Lee Ann Shay to undergo their first shop visit,” says Alex Youngs, StandardAero vice presi- t will likely take at least a couple cause CFM has an open after market, dent of strategy and analysis. of years for airlines to recover airline and independent MROs also Next year should see the highest Ifrom the devastating impact that develop repairs, and CFM cannot as- number of CFM56s in service, at more COVID-19 has wrought, so expect certain the number of repairs, says than 21,000, according to Aviation operators to scrutinize how best to Maureen Normoyle, CFM’s life-cycle Week forecast data. That number will balance operating efficiency and cost engineering leader. “Suppliers own the gradually decline over the decade, until containment even more than before. design content and provide the after- about 16,000 engines are in services— CFM INTERNATIONAL

Repairing parts instead of replac- market support” for those, she says. CFM develops about 150 repairs ing them is often one way to do this, To put the scope of today’s fleet in annually for its engines, including and given that engine MRO typically perspective, CFM International says the very active CFM56-7 (pictured). accounts for about 40% of total civil more than 16,000 CFM56-7B and –5B aviation aftermarket costs, the engine engines are in service, which repre- which is about the number of engines repair market could receive extra atten- sents about 75% of the fleet. flying now because of decreased airline tion. For the CFM56 fleet, which is one The -7B, which powers the Boeing traffic caused by the pandemic. Peak of the largest active engine types, there 737NG, is the most active of the type. utilization will occur near 2023. are already many repair options from Over the next three years, the -7B is To identify repair priorities, CFM both the OEM and independent shops. forecast to generate $106.5 million looks at part scrap rates and other CFM partners GE and Safran Air- in MRO revenue, and the -5B, which things driving engine shop costs, craft Engines typically develop about powers the Airbus A320, will gener- as well as at “repair-limit exten- 150 repairs annually. (The company ate $57.6 million, according to Aviation sions based on updated engineering does not disclose the cost of those.) Be- Week’s 2021 Fleet & MRO Forecast. analyses,” says Normoyle.

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MRO22 INSIDEMRO SEPTEMBER 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO InsideMRO Engines STANDARDAERO StandardAero, which is part of GE’s engine shop network but also an independent MRO so it can perform customized workscopes, focuses repair priorities on “cost-saving opportunities, supply chain and turn-time operational improvement opportunities, as well as improved durability and quality assurance,” says Youngs. StandardAero bolstered its CFM56 repair capabilities when it acquired Jet Aviation Specialists and PAS Technol- ogies in 2017. Normoyle says the pandemic hasn’t changed the process of how it develops repairs. “We are staying closely coor- dinated with customers, as well as the CFM MRO network for industrializa- tion (shop implementation) and repair development prioritization.” Interestingly, Safran CEO Philippe Petitcolin recently said that while StandardAero develops CFM56 repairs at its Winnipeg, Manitoba, facility and the company’s shop visit volume through its global StandardAero Component Services team. has decreased this year, it has not seen a significant dip in per-shop- than 430 million hr. and about 222 mil- Given these numbers, it is clear that visit workscope. lion cycles, while the -5B has logged 238 the CFM56 aftermarket will be robust The CFM56-7B has logged more million hr. and almost 136 million cycles. for years. c

Know. Predict. Connect. Business-critical information, predictive intelligence and connections with opportunities and people. That’s how the Aviation Week Network helps you make decisions and build your business. Delivering award-winning journalism, deep data and analytics, world-class events, and content- driven marketing services, our core principle is helping our customers succeed.

MRO24 INSIDEMRO SEPTEMBER 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO InsideMRO Engines InsideMRO Engineered STANDARDAERO StandardAero, which is part of GE’s “Software individually controls engine shop network but also an inde- Constellation the performance of thousands of an- pendent MRO so it can perform cus- tenna elements, allowing beam con- tomized workscopes, focuses repair trol and shaping not available before priorities on “cost-saving opportuni- Compatibilities to the commercial satcom industry,” ties, supply chain and turn-time opera- Sauer says. “Along with that, the an- tional improvement opportunities, as New satellite systems speed up antenna tenna’s RF performance benefits from well as improved durability and quality advanced printed-circuit-board mate- assurance,” says Youngs. advancements rials, which support higher RF perfor- StandardAero bolstered its CFM56 mance and lower costs.” repair capabilities when it acquired Jet He adds that the antenna can now Aviation Specialists and PAS Technol- ogies in 2017. A NXT Communications AeroMax Normoyle says the pandemic hasn’t flat-panel, electronically steered changed the process of how it develops array antenna is pictured in an repairs. “We are staying closely coor- industry-standard radome. dinated with customers, as well as the CFM MRO network for industrializa- meet the regulatory requirements of tion (shop implementation) and repair GEO satellites and the beam mobility development prioritization.” requirements to communicate with a Interestingly, Safran CEO Philippe LEO satellite. “With a software up - Petitcolin recently said that while StandardAero develops CFM56 repairs at its Winnipeg, Manitoba, facility and grade, this same antenna can be con- the company’s shop visit volume through its global StandardAero Component Services team. NXT COMMUNICATIONS figured to work with future satellite has decreased this year, it has not constellations and waveforms,” Sauer seen a significant dip in per-shop- than 430 million hr. and about 222 mil- Given these numbers, it is clear that points out. visit workscope. lion cycles, while the -5B has logged 238 the CFM56 aftermarket will be robust The CFM56-7B has logged more million hr. and almost 136 million cycles. for years. c PLAYING CATCH-UP At this time, antenna technology is Paul Seidenman and David Spanovich San Francisco largely in catch-up mode, according to David Horton, co-founder and CEO of nflight connectivity has revolution- “This modular design enables scal- NXT Communications (Nxtcomm) in ized the passenger experience, but ability that cannot be achieved with Atlanta. Horton, in fact, likens inflight Iit continues to have issues with traditional, mechanically steered an- connectivity (IFC) development to “a undependable internet connections tennas,” Sauer explains. “These prod- game of leapfrog.” Know. Predict. and content delivery. As higher- ucts are architected to be modular so “The satellite operators invested a capacity satellite networks come on- the transmitting and receiving anten- lot of money in new high-throughput stream, however, that could change. nas can be independently sized to meet satellites,” he says. “However, the Connect. In preparation, antenna OEMs are specific customer needs.” ground segment—the teleport side of implementing innovative engineer- Ball Aerospace is also leveraging things—hadn’t made the strides they Business-critical information, predictive ing concepts. other innovations for its antennas, needed to interface with them. By the intelligence and connections with opportunities “Content providers are asking including advanced semiconductor time the satellite technology and the and people. That’s how the Aviation Week Network for antennas that are future-proof,” processes such as radio frequency ground infrastructure caught up, the helps you make decisions and build your business. stresses Jake Sauer, vice president and complementary metal-oxide semicon- on-aircraft antenna hardware was not Delivering award-winning journalism, deep data general manager at Ball Aerospace. ductors (RF CMOS), a low-cost, high- where it needed to be. Today, we have and analytics, world-class events, and content- “They want to put one antenna on a volume, digital-process technology. RF relatively poor-performing antennas driven marketing services, our core principle is plane and be confident that it will sup- CMOS, Sauer says, provides excellent on airplanes.” helping our customers succeed. port the satellites in space today and radio frequency performance and en- To address performance issues, the new NGSO [non-geostationary- ables high levels of integration. This Nxtcomm expects to roll out AeroMax, orbit] satellites planned for tomorrow.” technology—used in the beam-forming initially with a Ku-band antenna, by Sauer reports that Ball Aerospace chips and developed by Ball Aerospace the fourth quarter of 2021, and a Ka- has focused on electronically steered partner Anokiwave—is what Ball’s band version by the spring of 2022. phased-array (ESA) antennas to be ESA employs to control phase, ampli- As Horton explains, AeroMax satellite and constellation agnostic. tude and polarization of every element, will be able to work with all satellite He describes a novel approach to the giving the product the ability to cre- constellations, with the capability to design and production of flat-panel ate and move beams almost instanta- transition seamlessly among them, arrays that builds upon modular an- neously. This allows a single antenna and yet deliver consistent, uninter- tenna building blocks called subar- to communicate with geostationary rupted connectivity in flight. To do rays. These subarrays are combined (GEO), medium-Earth-orbit (MEO), that, AeroMax uses an ESA, incorpo- like Lego pieces to form larger flat- highly-elliptical-orbit (HEO) and low- rating a single flat panel. Less than panel arrays. Earth-orbit (LEO) satellites. 2 in. thick, the installed antenna re -

MRO24 INSIDEMRO SEPTEMBER 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO AviationWeek.com/MRO INSIDEMRO SEPTEMBER 2020 MRO25 InsideMRO Engineered sides within a radome that sits below lites, Horton says he believes that According to Otto, electronically the boundary layer, reducing drag. Ac- they will use all available satellite scanned array antennas, though in de- cording to Horton, it is the first true architectures. “The difference will velopment for decades, have been un- flat-panel ESA developed for the com- be in what percentage,” he notes. able to overcome numerous technologi- mercial aviation market. “Right now, we are GEO dominant, cal challenges that limit their efficiency, “This innovation, embedded within but over the course of time, the mix cost effectiveness, excessive power de- mands and poor low-elevation performance. “ESAs have been promised for many years, but no viable product has made it to market, and the schedules BALL AEROSPACE keep moving to the right,” Otto remarks. The VICTS antenna architecture can support either Ku- or Ka-band frequencies. To that end, Otto points out that ThinKom has entered commercial production of its K a-band ThinAir Ka2517 IFC antenna subsys- tem, including the entire outside antenna equipment (antennas, adapter plate, radome and fairing) as well as the inside antenna equipment—specif- ically the Ka-band network data unit and the Ka-band radio frequency unit. The Ka2517 system has already been deployed on a fleet of U.S. military aircraft and is in production for several Ball Aerospace is focused on producing electronically steered, phased-array large IFC service providers. antennas, like the one pictured, that are satellite- and constellation-agnostic. Otto calls the VICTS antennas the The antenna is built on modules that are called subarrays, which click together most area-efficient phased-array an- like Lego pieces to form larger flat-panel arrays, enabling scalability. tennas available in the market. “They are low-profile [3-4 in. tall] and our fragmented aperture technology, of bits delivered from each of those have extremely low front-end losses, makes this possible,” Horton notes. architectures will change. That’s why as they are based on Thin Kom’s pat- “Also our proprietary algorithm en- it’s important to have an antenna that ented parallel-plate antenna design,” hances beam forming and beam steer- does it all.” Otto says. “Compared with electroni- ing, especially important for LEO, cally steered antennas, the VICTS MEO and HEO. All other antennas in MECHANICALLY STEERED VERSIONS antenna is 2-5 times more efficient, the market—either the mechanically Although ESA technology has its which translates into a footprint that steered parabolic or the quasi ESAs— advocates, at least one OEM differs. is 50-80% smaller for a similarly per- are dependent on multiple antennas Gregg Otto, vice president at ThinKom forming ESA. Excluding the solid-state for non-GEO operation.” Solutions, has manufactured mechan- power block converters, the antenna Horton adds that the economics ically steered, variable-inclination, and antenna controller dissipate less of maintaining mechanically steered continuous transverse stub (VICTS) than 150-watt average power.” antennas are challenging: “ESAs are phased-array antennas, which Otto The VICTS antennas, he adds, more efficient and reliable than me- says have proved to be extremely re- are designed for accelerations of up chanical-array systems, with no mov- liable and cost-effective. to 1,000 deg./sec.2, enabling them to ing parts or gears to fail.” To illustrate, Otto reports that switch from one satellite to another Horton reports that Nxtcomm’s before the COVID-19 pandemic, in less than 1 sec. fragmented aperture technology is more than 1,500 aircraft were fly - “That speed, which cannot be core to its antenna’s functionality. ing with ThinKom’s Ku3030 VICTS matched by parabolic dish or flat- “AeroMax is fundamentally manu- antenna privately labeled by Gogo panel gimbaled antennas, is what factured as a printed circuit board. for its 2Ku IFC service. Before the enables ThinKom’s VICTS antennas “Our technology has a smaller LRU pandemic, the antenna accumulated to interoperate effectively between [line-replaceable unit] count and fea- more than 16 million hr. of operation GEO and NGSO constellations,” he tures consolidated electronics. We with a mean time between failures says. “We have successfully conducted don’t waste space under the radome, of approximately 100,000 hr. “The live on-air trials with our commercial, which is a huge benefit of our flat- antenna has provided gap-free, pole- off-the-shelf Ku- and Ka-band VICTS panel design.” to-pole coverage on all aircraft types, antennas, proving that we can support Asked if content providers will at all altitudes and with a low-profile seamless automatic roaming between move away from legacy GEO satel- radome,” he says. GEO and NGSO networks.” c

MRO26 INSIDEMRO SEPTEMBER 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO InsideMRO Engineered InsideMRO Aircraft Analysis sides within a radome that sits below lites, Horton says he believes that According to Otto, electronically closely with our business partners the boundary layer, reducing drag. Ac- they will use all available satellite scanned array antennas, though in de- Time and SpaceJet and the [Japan Civil Aviation Bureau], cording to Horton, it is the first true architectures. “The difference will velopment for decades, have been un- we are establishing the foundation for flat-panel ESA developed for the com- be in what percentage,” he notes. able to overcome numerous technologi- Mitsubishi Aircraft’s regional jet development has the commercial aviation industry in mercial aviation market. “Right now, we are GEO dominant, cal challenges that limit their efficiency, Japan.” “This innovation, embedded within but over the course of time, the mix cost effectiveness, excessive power de- been slow, but competition has fallen off as well mands and poor low-elevation perfor- PROGRAM STATUS mance. “ESAs have been promised for Alex Derber London Although Mitsubishi Aircraft has halt- many years, but no viable product has ed flight testing of the M90 and closed made it to market, and the schedules hen Mitsubishi launched its Of those, 163 are firm orders, although its Moses Lake, Washington, testing BALL AEROSPACE keep moving to the right,” Otto remarks. regional jet program in 2008 these include 100 from SkyWest, a U.S. site in the U.S., the company is con- The VICTS antenna architecture Wthe business case was ques- regional airline group that faces the tinuing to work toward type certifica- can support either Ku- or Ka-band tionable. Incumbent manufacturers same scope-clause obstacle as Trans tion for the regional jet. frequencies. To that end, Otto points Embraer and Bombardier dominated States. That means a big question In February, Mitsubishi Aircraft said out that ThinKom has entered com- the regional jet market with an in- mark hangs over its order. that the SpaceJet would enter service mercial production of its K a-band stalled base of thousands of airframes, ThinAir Ka2517 IFC antenna subsys- flight tests were already underway for tem, including the entire outside an- the rival Sukhoi Superjet, and closer to Flight testing of the M90 has tenna equipment (antennas, adapter home China was pouring considerable been halted as Mitsubishi plate, radome and fairing) as well as resources into its ARJ21 program. Aircraft reorganizes. the inside antenna equipment—specif- Fast-forward 12 years, and many ically the Ka-band network data unit of those challenges have evaporated. and the Ka-band radio frequency unit. Embraer is reeling from an aborted The Ka2517 system has already been takeover by Boeing, Bombardier no deployed on a fleet of U.S. military air- longer makes commercial aircraft craft and is in production for several and Mitsubishi has acquired its CRJ Ball Aerospace is focused on producing electronically steered, phased-array large IFC service providers. program, the Superjet has flopped antennas, like the one pictured, that are satellite- and constellation-agnostic. Otto calls the VICTS antennas the outside—and increasingly inside— The antenna is built on modules that are called subarrays, which click together most area-efficient phased-array an- Russia, and the ARJ21 has garnered like Lego pieces to form larger flat-panel arrays, enabling scalability. tennas available in the market. little interest other than from China’s “They are low-profile [3-4 in. tall] and state-owned airlines. our fragmented aperture technology, of bits delivered from each of those have extremely low front-end losses, But despite this implosion of makes this possible,” Horton notes. architectures will change. That’s why as they are based on Thin Kom’s pat- the competition, the case for the “Also our proprietary algorithm en- it’s important to have an antenna that ented parallel-plate antenna design,” Mitsubishi SpaceJet is as tenuous as hances beam forming and beam steer- does it all.” Otto says. “Compared with electroni- ever. The havoc wrought on the airline ing, especially important for LEO, cally steered antennas, the VICTS industry by COVID-19 is one reason MITSUBISHI AIRCRAFT MEO and HEO. All other antennas in MECHANICALLY STEERED VERSIONS antenna is 2-5 times more efficient, for this, but even before the pandemic the market—either the mechanically Although ESA technology has its which translates into a footprint that the Japanese regional jet program Given this situation, many wonder in April 2021 “at the earliest.” But now steered parabolic or the quasi ESAs— advocates, at least one OEM differs. is 50-80% smaller for a similarly per- was grappling with multiple delays why Mitsubishi has not scrapped the the company will not disclose a target are dependent on multiple antennas Gregg Otto, vice president at ThinKom forming ESA. Excluding the solid-state and a limited orderbook. SpaceJet program altogether. And date for type certification or for entry for non-GEO operation.” Solutions, has manufactured mechan- power block converters, the antenna In May 2019, seeking to draw a line the finance department of Mitsubishi into service of the M90, stating that Horton adds that the economics ically steered, variable-inclination, and antenna controller dissipate less under the program’s internal troubles, Aircraft’s parent—Mitsubishi Heavy plans for the former will proceed once of maintaining mechanically steered continuous transverse stub (VICTS) than 150-watt average power.” Mitsubishi Aircraft rebranded it from Industries (MHI)—may have agreed, Mitsubishi Aircraft completes its reor- antennas are challenging: “ESAs are phased-array antennas, which Otto The VICTS antennas, he adds, the MRJ to the SpaceJet, focusing on after the SpaceJet program accounted ganization and restructuring. Part of more efficient and reliable than me- says have proved to be extremely re- are designed for accelerations of up the 90-seat M90 (then in flight tests) for almost all its ¥71 billion ($670 mil- that process included the appointment chanical-array systems, with no mov- liable and cost-effective. to 1,000 deg./sec.2, enabling them to and also launching a new 76-seat vari- lion) loss in the three months ending on of Yasuhiko Kawaguchi as executive ing parts or gears to fail.” To illustrate, Otto reports that switch from one satellite to another ant, the M100, which would be scope- June 30, 2020. chief engineer. Kawaguchi had a key Horton reports that Nxtcomm’s before the COVID-19 pandemic, in less than 1 sec. clause-compliant for the U.S. market. MHI estimates that fiscal 2020 role in the M90’s flight-test program, fragmented aperture technology is more than 1,500 aircraft were fly - “That speed, which cannot be Only a few months later, U.S. regional development costs for the SpaceJet which produced 3,900 hr. of data that core to its antenna’s functionality. ing with ThinKom’s Ku3030 VICTS matched by parabolic dish or flat- airline group Trans States canceled an could be ¥60 billion. And while this now needs to be validated. Mitsubishi “AeroMax is fundamentally manu- antenna privately labeled by Gogo panel gimbaled antennas, is what order for 50 M90s due to scope-clause is less than half the previous budget, has said it will also focus on “improving factured as a printed circuit board. for its 2Ku IFC service. Before the enables ThinKom’s VICTS antennas concerns. At the time, Mitsubishi said commercial considerations about the the current design at the aircraft level.” “Our technology has a smaller LRU pandemic, the antenna accumulated to interoperate effectively between it was in talks to replace the order with program appear to have become en- “These are our priorities now,” says [line-replaceable unit] count and fea- more than 16 million hr. of operation GEO and NGSO constellations,” he the M100, but then COVID-19 struck, tangled with national strategic objec- Jeff Dronen, director of strategic com- tures consolidated electronics. We with a mean time between failures says. “We have successfully conducted and by May of this year the company tives—and pride. munications for Mitsubishi Aircraft. don’t waste space under the radome, of approximately 100,000 hr. “The live on-air trials with our commercial, was forced to announce suspension of “We are developing the first com- “Once we achieve type certification, which is a huge benefit of our flat- antenna has provided gap-free, pole- off-the-shelf Ku- and Ka-band VICTS the M100 program and a halt to flight mercial jet for Japan,” says a represen- at that point we will reevaluate the panel design.” to-pole coverage on all aircraft types, antennas, proving that we can support testing of the M90. tative for Mitsubishi Aircraft. “This is market and the needs of our custom- Asked if content providers will at all altitudes and with a low-profile seamless automatic roaming between Mitsubishi Aircraft is now reporting significant, not only for our company ers and determine entry into service move away from legacy GEO satel- radome,” he says. GEO and NGSO networks.” c 287 orders and options for the M90. but also for our country. Working in line with their schedules.”

MRO26 INSIDEMRO SEPTEMBER 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO AviationWeek.com/MRO INSIDEMRO SEPTEMBER 2020 MRO27 InsideMRO Aircraft Analysis MITSUBISHI AIRCRAFT Regarding the effect of Mitsubishi Aircraft’s restructuring on its relationship with key suppliers, Dronen says: “COVID-19 has obviously had an impact on us and our partners. We all are suffering now, and we must work together as we move forward.” He adds that organization of aftermarket support for the SpaceJet will be determined closer to the M90’s type certification. “Once we have a clear vision to achieving [type certification], then we will begin reevaluating the market and customer needs and determine the best approach for The SpaceJet’s first flight was supporting our customers and performed with flight-test our aircraft,” Dronen says. vehicle No. 10 on March 18, 2020. Although as yet there are no details on how Mitsubishi Aircraft will support the SpaceJet, it Commenting on the state of the re- from this market due to their maxi- may well gain some valuable insights gional aircraft market, Dronen says mum takeoff weights. from its parent company’s acquisition that Mitsubishi Aircraft’s “research One result of this has been con- of the CRJ program from Bombardier. is in line with recent industry analy- tinued demand for the current-gen- MHI closed the deal in June, acquiring sis, and we expect that it will take eration E175, which is scope-clause- the maintenance, support, refurbish- several years to recover to the previ- compliant. Prior to the pandemic, ment, marketing and sales activities for ously expected levels.” most analysts expected 2023 to be the the CRJ series, plus their type certifi- Another point in favor of a further next date when renegotiation of scope cates. The sale included Bombardier’s extension to development is that clauses might be possible, although CRJ services and support network in Embraer is the only player of note left few predict success in such talks. Montreal and Toronto, as well as its in the regional jet market. Yet there is However, COVID-19 has upended service centers located in Bridgeport, a huge fleet of aging regional jets that the airline industry in ways that are Connecticut, and Tucson, Arizona. will need to be replaced over the next only beginning to be felt. One unfore- Following the deal, an MHI repre- decade, a process that airlines and les- seen consequence may be a loosening sentative says the company has be - sors would prefer not to enter being on of scope-clause restrictions by U.S. come “the largest maintenance and the wrong side of a monopoly. unions. And even if that does not hap- support provider for the CRJ family Completed before the pandemic, pen, there remains a large market out- of aircraft.” The representative adds: Embraer’s most recent market outside the U.S. into which both Embraer “The SpaceJet program will be able to look projects demand for 10,500 air- and Mitsubishi are hopeful of selling. take full advantage of this unparalleled craft of up to 150 seats in 2019-38, 45% Failing that, the Japanese company customer support workforce and be of which will be replacements. Over also has the option of restarting de - ready to jump back into the competi- the same period, Boeing forecasts development of the M100. tion once it fully restarts the program.” liveries of 2,240 regional jets, a cat- Yet the long term brings its own egory in which aircraft like the M90 challenges. The further Mitsubishi ex- THE LONG GAME and Embraer 175-E2 are at the top end tends SpaceJet development, the clos- Despite Mitsubishi’s tortuous develop- of the size range. er it may find itself in conflict with new ment of its regional jet—the original Both the M90 and the Embraer E2 technologies such as ultra-high-speed iteration, the MRJ90, was supposed to line use variants of Pratt & Whitney’s rail and electric aircraft, not to mention have entered service in 2013, but the first PW1000 family of geared turbofan en- changing societal attitudes toward the flight-test vehicle rolled out in 2014—the gines. The appeal of the efficiency gains environmental impact of flying. company still has time on its side. The these offer over current-generation While electric aircraft are still an COVID-19 pandemic means there is powerplants is somewhat negated by unproven concept, the 90-seat M90 scant demand for new aircraft at present scope-clause restrictions in the critical lies at the upper end of what aerospace and probably for the next year at least U.S. market, which accounts for almost engineers think might be possible for and thus little chance for competitors half the global regional jet fleet. Both commercial passenger airliners using to steal a march on the SpaceJet. the M90 and E175-E2 are excluded electric powerplants. c

MRO28 INSIDEMRO SEPTEMBER 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO InsideMRO Aircraft Analysis Products and Services MITSUBISHI AIRCRAFT Regarding the effect of Mitsubishi Aircraft’s restructuring on its relationship with Innovative Startups key suppliers, Dronen says: “COVID-19 has obviously had Lindsay Bjerregaard Chicago an impact on us and our partners. We all are suffering now, journey from source to consumption, creating and we must work together as a digital footprint for raw materials that main- we move forward.” tains the integrity of its credentials throughout He adds that organization its lifetime. Circulor says this helps OEMs of aftermarket support for manage their supply chains more effectively the SpaceJet will be deter- while enabling them to make informed choices mined closer to the M90’s about sustainability and ethical sourcing. type certification. marketplace.aviationweek.com/ “Once we have a clear vi- company/circulor sion to achieving [type certification], then we will begin 3. Monitoring Aircraft Turnarounds via AI reevaluating the market and customer needs and deter- Company: Assaia mine the best approach for The SpaceJet’s first flight was Specifications: Assaia’s Apron AI system supporting our customers and performed with flight-test uses cameras installed at airports paired with our aircraft,” Dronen says. vehicle No. 10 on March 18, 2020. an artificial intelligence system to analyze turn- Although as yet there are 1 around operations and offer predictive analysis no details on how Mitsubishi to airlines. Through the Hangar 51 accelerator, Aircraft will support the SpaceJet, it Commenting on the state of the re- from this market due to their maxi- 1. Automated Part Recognition Assaia worked with British Airways to monitor may well gain some valuable insights gional aircraft market, Dronen says mum takeoff weights. and detect multiple aircraft turnaround events from its parent company’s acquisition that Mitsubishi Aircraft’s “research One result of this has been con- Company: Pzartech simultaneously through a video stream and of the CRJ program from Bombardier. is in line with recent industry analy- tinued demand for the current-gen- Specifications: Israeli startup Pzartech live dashboard, which it says enabled more MHI closed the deal in June, acquiring sis, and we expect that it will take eration E175, which is scope-clause- provides digital tools for part recognition and effective use of staff time and faster action and the maintenance, support, refurbish- several years to recover to the previ- compliant. Prior to the pandemic, tracking. The company’s Snapr application reduced the number and magnitude of delays. ment, marketing and sales activities for ously expected levels.” most analysts expected 2023 to be the uses shape and industrial optical character The company has been working with several the CRJ series, plus their type certifi- Another point in favor of a further next date when renegotiation of scope recognition to extract part and serial numbers, other airlines to explore other safety use cases cates. The sale included Bombardier’s extension to development is that clauses might be possible, although so technicians can capture a picture of a part, for Apron AI, including detecting speed during CRJ services and support network in Embraer is the only player of note left few predict success in such talks. quickly confirm it is the correct one and take aircraft pushback operations and understeer- Montreal and Toronto, as well as its in the regional jet market. Yet there is However, COVID-19 has upended appropriate action. The tool also enables ing while entering an aircraft stand. service centers located in Bridgeport, a huge fleet of aging regional jets that the airline industry in ways that are semi-automatic entry of the serial number 2 marketplace.aviationweek.com/ Connecticut, and Tucson, Arizona. will need to be replaced over the next only beginning to be felt. One unfore- to simplify the mechanical part identification company/assaia Following the deal, an MHI repre- decade, a process that airlines and les- seen consequence may be a loosening process. Snapr was developed in partnership sentative says the company has be - sors would prefer not to enter being on of scope-clause restrictions by U.S. with Israel Aerospace Industries as part of 4. Continuous Asset Tracking come “the largest maintenance and the wrong side of a monopoly. unions. And even if that does not hap- its innovation lab efforts to support teams support provider for the CRJ family Completed before the pandemic, pen, there remains a large market out- maintaining aircraft in performing incoming/ Company: Uwinloc of aircraft.” The representative adds: Embraer’s most recent market outside the U.S. into which both Embraer outgoing engine inventory. Specifications: French startup Uwinloc “The SpaceJet program will be able to look projects demand for 10,500 air- and Mitsubishi are hopeful of selling. marketplace.aviationweek.com/ provides an indoor Internet of Things location take full advantage of this unparalleled craft of up to 150 seats in 2019-38, 45% Failing that, the Japanese company company/pzartech-ltd monitoring system that enables continuous customer support workforce and be of which will be replacements. Over also has the option of restarting de - tracking of goods. The system combines ready to jump back into the competi- the same period, Boeing forecasts development of the M100. 2. Sustainable Sourcing beacons, a server, visualization software and tion once it fully restarts the program.” liveries of 2,240 regional jets, a cat- Yet the long term brings its own 3 battery-less tags that collect energy from egory in which aircraft like the M90 challenges. The further Mitsubishi ex- Company: Circulor the surrounding radio field to track assets on THE LONG GAME and Embraer 175-E2 are at the top end tends SpaceJet development, the clos- Specifications: Originally getting its start by a 2D or 3D map. Uwinloc says the system Despite Mitsubishi’s tortuous develop- of the size range. er it may find itself in conflict with new helping the automotive supply chain track co- can increase productivity and improve stock ment of its regional jet—the original Both the M90 and the Embraer E2 technologies such as ultra-high-speed balt used for batteries, Circulor is now work- management. It is now working to develop iteration, the MRJ90, was supposed to line use variants of Pratt & Whitney’s rail and electric aircraft, not to mention ing with Boeing and GKN Aerospace through tags that can adapt to products in various have entered service in 2013, but the first PW1000 family of geared turbofan en- changing societal attitudes toward the the ATI Boeing Accelerator to track carbon shapes and sizes, as well as tags integrating flight-test vehicle rolled out in 2014—the gines. The appeal of the efficiency gains environmental impact of flying. emissions during the production of aircraft, sensor characteristics such as temperature company still has time on its side. The these offer over current-generation While electric aircraft are still an as well as the authenticity and traceability of and speed measurements. COVID-19 pandemic means there is powerplants is somewhat negated by unproven concept, the 90-seat M90 aircraft parts and powder used for 3D printing. 4 marketplace.aviationweek.com/ scant demand for new aircraft at present scope-clause restrictions in the critical lies at the upper end of what aerospace Circulor tracks supply chain data along the company/uwinloc-0 and probably for the next year at least U.S. market, which accounts for almost engineers think might be possible for and thus little chance for competitors half the global regional jet fleet. Both commercial passenger airliners using Go to marketplace.aviationweek.com for more information. to steal a march on the SpaceJet. the M90 and E175-E2 are excluded electric powerplants. c

MRO28 INSIDEMRO SEPTEMBER 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO AviationWeek.com/MRO INSIDEMRO SEPTEMBER 2020 MRO29 Products and Services

5. Real-Time Maintenance Management 5 Company: SynapseMX Specifications: SynapseMX’s cloud-based maintenance management and execution platform uses real-time data tools and machine learning to help deal with maintenance challenges as they occur. The platform enables monitoring and management of operations such as coordinating teams, assigning jobs, performing and signing off on work and notifying downline stations when issues are headed their documents, then uses blockchain to create a way. SynapseMX says the platform improves team “digital birth certificate” for all parts coming efficiency and helps operators keep track of trends from the supply chain. Kraken IM is working during “the crisis of the day.” It recently won a toward the ability to create a digital twin contract with the U.S. Air Force to explore how the for all parts and components that can be platform can improve visibility of unscheduled main- updated as aircraft are maintained, serviced tenance activities and streamline team workflows. and inspected, which it says will provide marketplace.aviationweek.com/company/ greater transparency and reduce losses from synapsemx downtime and unplanned maintenance. marketplace.aviationweek.com/ 6. Robotic Mapping of MRO Operations company/kraken-im

Company: Reckon Point 8. Augmented Part Inspections Specifications: Based at the Port San Antonio innovation center, Reckon Point uses 360-deg. Company: Anomalous imaging technology mounted to robots to develop Specifications: Scottish startup Anomalous GPS for indoor spaces. The technology can be provides AI-based software to improve the used to map maintenance operations and track 6 speed and accuracy of aircraft part inspec- materials through the line, or even track assets and tions. The company says humans performing staff when paired with sensors, wearables or mobile devices. Reckon Point says this visual inspections miss 20-30% of visible could enable tracking of technicians’ exposure to dangerous elements such as toxic defects on average, but its software can materials, vibration or fumes. It is now working to develop robots that can climb stairs improve the process. Inspectors can capture or drive off-road to scan building exteriors and terrain. data about a part via mobile devices, and the marketplace.aviationweek.com/company/reckon-point software uses AI models to look for defects and produce a digital report, which helps 7. Transparent Supply Chains inspectors determine whether the part has passed or failed inspection. In addition to Company: Kraken IM improving inspection consistency, Anomalous Specifications: UK startup Kraken IM provides software to help customers procure says the software can be used to identify what they need from their supply chain by ensuring materials have conformity, used serviceable material or parts that may traceability and meet all requirements. The company creates transparent digital have been taken out of service too soon. requirements and captures information deliverables, quality requirements and paper marketplace.aviationweek.com/ company/anomalous 7 8

Go to marketplace.aviationweek.com for more information.

MRO30 INSIDEMRO SEPTEMBER 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO Products and Services InsideMRO Viewpoint By GUY NORRIS Guy Norris is Aviation Week’s Senior Propulsion Editor 5. Real-Time Maintenance Management 5 Company: SynapseMX The clear message is that electric Specifications: SynapseMX’s cloud-based Power Disruption power, in various forms and levels of maintenance management and execution hybridization, is coming, and MRO platform uses real-time data tools and machine Engine MRO change is coming, but don’t panic! providers should think about how learning to help deal with maintenance chal- not only to adapt but also to take lenges as they occur. The platform enables advantage of the potential market monitoring and management of operations ngine-makers are laying out tentative development strate- opportunities. As well as more electric such as coordinating teams, assigning jobs, Egies for a new generation of advanced lower-emissions features on future single-aisles, a new performing and signing off on work and notifying powerplants that embrace everything from more-electric and generation of all-electric small com- downline stations when issues are headed their documents, then uses blockchain to create a muter and hybrid-electric regional way. SynapseMX says the platform improves team “digital birth certificate” for all parts coming hybrid-electric technology to distributed propulsion architec- aircraft is on the horizon and, because efficiency and helps operators keep track of trends from the supply chain. Kraken IM is working tures, hydrogen fuel cells and carbon neutral-fuels. of their promised low operating costs, during “the crisis of the day.” It recently won a toward the ability to create a digital twin they could be in service in far greater contract with the U.S. Air Force to explore how the for all parts and components that can be But what does this mean to the tion. Engine-makers are already numbers than today’s generation. platform can improve visibility of unscheduled main- updated as aircraft are maintained, serviced established multibillion-dollar en- planning to make turbofans more Beyond electric power lies a grow- tenance activities and streamline team workflows. and inspected, which it says will provide gine aftermarket industry that has electric—both to feed future airliner ing interest in hydrogen. Although marketplace.aviationweek.com/company/ greater transparency and reduce losses from flourished for so long on maintaining, power needs as well as to potentially discounted as a viable option for synapsemx downtime and unplanned maintenance. repairing and overhauling the conven- gain fuel savings by using electric aircraft until very recently, hydrogen marketplace.aviationweek.com/ tional gas turbine? power to optimize is now viewed as a way to deeply 6. Robotic Mapping of MRO Operations company/kraken-im Is the game about engine operation. decarbonize aviation—particularly in to change, and MRO providers Pratt & Whitney Europe. Airbus sees the fuel as one Company: Reckon Point 8. Augmented Part Inspections will the traditional is studying a next- way to meet its stated commitment Specifications: Based at the Port San Antonio service providers should think about generation PW1100G to bring an aircraft with net-zero innovation center, Reckon Point uses 360-deg. Company: Anomalous be increasingly left geared turbofan that carbon emissions to market by 2035. imaging technology mounted to robots to develop Specifications: Scottish startup Anomalous out in the cold as not only how to could be a parallel While earlier efforts to bring hydro- GPS for indoor spaces. The technology can be provides AI-based software to improve the the industry moves adapt but also how turboelectric hybrid gen to aviation have failed because used to map maintenance operations and track 6 speed and accuracy of aircraft part inspec- toward a brave new, engine, which could of the high cost of the infrastructure materials through the line, or even track assets and tions. The company says humans performing sustainable world? to take advantage be up to 5% more required for production and distribu- staff when paired with sensors, wearables or mobile devices. Reckon Point says this visual inspections miss 20-30% of visible While the shift of potential market efficient than cur- tion, the climate-change imperative could enable tracking of technicians’ exposure to dangerous elements such as toxic defects on average, but its software can to new technolo- rent engines and be and the “flight-shaming” movement in materials, vibration or fumes. It is now working to develop robots that can climb stairs improve the process. Inspectors can capture gies will inevitably opportunities. available for the next Europe have forced a reconsideration. or drive off-road to scan building exteriors and terrain. data about a part via mobile devices, and the be more radical generation of single- So what could the adoption of a marketplace.aviationweek.com/company/reckon-point software uses AI models to look for defects than anything the aisle airliners. hydrogen ecosystem mean for the and produce a digital report, which helps aftermarket has seen since the start Rolls-Royce, which is building MRO industry? Almost certainly it 7. Transparent Supply Chains inspectors determine whether the part has of the jet age, there are currently the first demonstrator of its new would present significant new support passed or failed inspection. In addition to more questions than answers when it UltraFan geared turbofan for tests opportunities, as hydrogen can be Company: Kraken IM improving inspection consistency, Anomalous comes to what directions the engine starting in 2021, is already pondering used in fuel cells powering electri- Specifications: UK startup Kraken IM provides software to help customers procure says the software can be used to identify OEMs will take and when. The only “micro-hybrid” electric versions with fied propulsion systems or directly what they need from their supply chain by ensuring materials have conformity, used serviceable material or parts that may certainty is that changes are on the embedded starter-generators. combusted in gas turbine engines. traceability and meet all requirements. The company creates transparent digital have been taken out of service too soon. way as airframe and engine-makers Paving the way for a more electric Hydrogen, renewable electricity and requirements and captures information deliverables, quality requirements and paper marketplace.aviationweek.com/ work toward reducing CO2 emissions future, in August the U.S. Energy captured CO2 can also be used to pro- company/anomalous to 50% of 2005 levels by 2050. Department awarded $33 million duce carbon-neutral synthetic fuels. A short-term change with almost in contracts to develop all-electric Against this backdrop of dramatic 7 8 no known implications for engine powertrain and fuel-to-electric change, there is one great certainty MRO will be the broader adoption power-conversion technologies to to warm the heart of all engine MRO of sustainable aviation fuels. But reduce emissions of future single- operators: The gas turbine is not going beyond this, the picture is murkier. aisle airliners. away—at least not for the next few Although development of all-electric Covering everything from high- decades. Alan Newby, director of aero- propulsion systems is underway, the performance energy storage and space technology and future programs limited energy density of batteries power generation subsystems for elec- at Rolls-Royce, echoes his competitors means the concept will necessarily tric aircraft—including fuel-to-electric when he says gas turbines have plenty be limited to applications such as power conversion—to developing of runway left ahead. “From our point unmanned cargo drones, urban air ultra-efficient all-electric powertrains of view, whether or not it is fueled mobility and other electric vertical- with advanced thermal management by sustainable aviation fuel or even takeoff-and-landing vehicles. systems, the programs make a state- ultimately hydrogen in the long-term Go to marketplace.aviationweek.com for more information. However, this doesn’t mean engine ment that the U.S. does not intend to future, you’re still going to need a highly MROs can ignore the electric revolu- fall behind in the more-electric race. efficient gas turbine,” he says. c

MRO30 INSIDEMRO SEPTEMBER 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO AviationWeek.com/MRO INSIDEMRO SEPTEMBER 2020 MRO31 MRO Products and Services ADVERTISING SECTION Aviation Week Marketplace is an online service that connects buyers and sellers in the MRO industry. Become a power user by registering at marketplace.aviationweek.com/register. Registration is FREE, enabling you to find hundreds of products like the ones featured below and to connect with more than 8000 companies. You can create a personalized save list, learn about companies’ specialties, get contact details and request information at marketplace.aviationweek.com. To advertise in the Marketplace, contact Elizabeth Zlitni at 913-967-1348 or [email protected].

MRO Asia-Pacific Virtual, September 22-24, 2020: Overcoming Unprecedented Change and the Challenge of What Lies Ahead! While live events are on hold, virtual events will provide digital content, networking, and a marketplace where the airline, OEM and MRO supplier communities can discover and showcase new products and innovations, connect with and source new and existing business partners, and share knowledge and best practices. Our virtual platform breaks down physical barriers and builds virtual communities and ensures that MRO Asia-Pacific and AeroEngines Asia-Pacific continue to deliver the same high-quality content that our audience has come to expect and will deliver information on the region in terms of industry recovery from COVID-19 crisis, workforce furloughs, layoffs, shop closings, and survival strategies for smaller MRO’s and third-party MRO services. To learn more about the virtual events and register to attend, please visit: mroasia.aviationweek.com.

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AviationWeek.com/MRO INSIDEMRO SEPTEMBER 2020 MRO33 MRO Products and Services CATEGORY INDEX

AIRCRAFT ON THE GROUND ENGINES PARTS DISTRIBUTORS Titan Robotics Inc ...... MRO33 Aeroweld Inc ...... MRO32 Aeroweld Inc ...... MRO32

AIRFRAMES GROUND SUPPORT EQUIPMENT SAFETY/EMERGENCY EQUIPMENT Aeroweld Inc ...... MRO32 Titan Tool Supply, Inc ...... MRO33 United Industrial United Industrial Textile Products, Inc ...... MRO33 CABIN INTERIORS/INFLIGHT Textile Products, Inc ...... MRO33 ENTERTAINMENT SERVICES Orapi ...... MRO33 HANGERS & EQUIPMENT AmSafe Bridport ...... MRO32 Jewers Doors Limited ...... MRO32 CHEMICALS Titan Robotics Inc ...... MRO33 Orapi ...... MRO33 Titan Tool Supply, Inc ...... MRO33 SOFTWARE ProMRO Cloud ERP ...... MRO33 COMPONENTS MRO Titan Robotics Inc ...... MRO33 Bombardier MRO ...... MRO32 TECHNOLOGY ProMRO Cloud ERP ...... MRO33 CONSULTING SERVICES ORIGINAL EQUIPMENT Jewers Doors Limited ...... MRO32 K&H Industries ...... MRO33 TOOLS & EQUIPMENT Titan Robotics Inc ...... MRO33 Titan Tool Supply, Inc ...... MRO33 CONSUMABLES/SUPPLIES United Industrial K&H Industries ...... MRO33 Textile Products, Inc ...... MRO33 Orapi ...... MRO33 PAINTING/COATINGS Titan Robotics Inc ...... MRO33 ENGINEERING AND DESIGN Jewers Doors Limited ...... MRO32

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MRO34 INSIDEMRO SEPTEMBER 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO CATEGORY INDEX DISCOVER MRO Products and Services ANALYZE PLAN FORECAST AIRCRAFT ON THE GROUND ENGINES PARTS DISTRIBUTORS Titan Robotics Inc ...... MRO33 Aeroweld Inc ...... MRO32 Aeroweld Inc ...... MRO32

AIRFRAMES GROUND SUPPORT EQUIPMENT SAFETY/EMERGENCY EQUIPMENT Aeroweld Inc ...... MRO32 Titan Tool Supply, Inc ...... MRO33 United Industrial United Industrial Textile Products, Inc ...... MRO33 2021 Commercial Fleet & MRO CABIN INTERIORS/INFLIGHT Textile Products, Inc ...... MRO33 ENTERTAINMENT SERVICES Forecast Ð Just Released! Orapi ...... MRO33 HANGERS & EQUIPMENT AmSafe Bridport ...... MRO32 Jewers Doors Limited ...... MRO32 CHEMICALS Titan Robotics Inc ...... MRO33 Orapi ...... MRO33 Titan Tool Supply, Inc ...... MRO33 SOFTWARE ProMRO Cloud ERP ...... MRO33 COMPONENTS MRO Titan Robotics Inc ...... MRO33 Bombardier MRO ...... MRO32 TECHNOLOGY ProMRO Cloud ERP ...... MRO33 CONSULTING SERVICES ORIGINAL EQUIPMENT Jewers Doors Limited ...... MRO32 K&H Industries ...... MRO33 TOOLS & EQUIPMENT Titan Robotics Inc ...... MRO33 Titan Tool Supply, Inc ...... MRO33 CONSUMABLES/SUPPLIES United Industrial K&H Industries ...... MRO33 Textile Products, Inc ...... MRO33 Orapi ...... MRO33 PAINTING/COATINGS Predictive Intelligence Titan Robotics Inc ...... MRO33 ENGINEERING AND DESIGN Jewers Doors Limited ...... MRO32 to Drive Results Aircraft & Engine Marketplace

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www.mtu.de/en Supervised autonomy makes best memory and input/output required December 2018, the 172 made its first use of the pilot in the control center, to automate an entire aircraft,” Rose fully automated, remotely operated Rose says, with the onboard system says. The company developed its own gate-to-gate flight. After a detailed detecting problems and presenting a electric actuators. “You can’t buy ac- safety analysis, the 172 made its first menu of options. “What the remote tuators off the shelf for these types FAA-approved unmanned flight in pilot sees is a very high-level control of aircraft to automate the vehicle September 2019, according to Rose. interface to all of this, where the per- through all phases of flight” with the The startup completed its Series son is going to be engaged in high-level required performance, integrity and B funding round in March 2019 and decision-making such as to how to reliability, he notes. has so far raised $33.5 million. The modify the trajectory if another air- Reliable Robotics has developed its company has developed an extensive craft becomes a factor,” he explains. own navigation solution to provide the simulation capability to model the 172 The complete platform is a single, high-precision positioning required to and 208, and the modified Caravan vertically integrated stack developed enable a fully automated landing, even accomplished all its test objectives on in-house by Reliable Robotics that can if GPS is unavailable. The company its first flight in June this year, Rose fly the aircraft autonomously from is not providing details, but “we’ve says, adding that the first automated gate to gate—from starting up, taxiing applied techniques that have been landing followed on the third day of out and taking off to landing, taxiing in commonplace in the space industry,” flight testing. and shutting down. The system will be Rose says, referencing the fusing of Reliable Robotics is aiming for FAA installed in parallel with conventional information from different navigation supplemental type certification for controls and instruments so that the sources. The detect-and-avoid system the modified Caravan, and its goal is aircraft can still be flown piloted. “will pull together as much off-the- to begin commercial cargo operations When it started in 2017, the com- shelf as possible,” he says, and use with the aircraft within two years. “By pany thought it would be able to inte- both onboard and offboard sources. necessity we will have to be the opera- grate systems from other vendors, but Reliable Robotics began flying the tor, because certification is about more it could not find suitable components Cessna 172 with automation equip- than what goes on the aircraft,” Rose off the shelf. “We thought we could ment installed in February 2018, and says. “This first approval will be a ho- buy certified avionics computers, but the aircraft made its first automat- listic approval. We also have to certify there was nothing with the computer, ed landing in October that year. In how to train remote pilots, etc.” c

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U.S. Air Force Contract Launches on changes to the overland supersonic flight ban. Boom Supersonic, for ex- New Supersonic Jet Startup ample, has raised over $100 million by promising to deliver a Mach 2.2, > EXOSONIC HAS RAISED MORE THAN $1.5 MILLION SINCE 2019 55-seat airliner to serve only over- water routes. Boeing-backed Aerion, > SUBSCALE UAS PROTOTYPE SET FOR ROLLOUT AROUND 2025 meanwhile, is developing a Mach 1.4, 12-seat business jet, with a promised Steve Trimble Washington capability to cruise at Mach 1.2 over land without its supersonic boom aising money for a supersonic By shaping the fuselage to soften the reaching the ground. passenger jet is not an easy sell. irksome sonic boom created by a The Exosonic concept, however, RMost investors want to make a super sonic shockwave, Tie is seeking relies on overland routes at super- profit within 3-5 years, not wait a de- to capitalize on legal changes that may sonic speed to justify a business case cade or more merely for the product come within a decade. for producing hundreds of aircraft, to become available to sell. And that The NASA/Lockheed X-59 QueSST Tie says. The 5,000-nm range gives is before the fundraiser mentions the low-boom flight demonstrator pro- Exosonic the ability to fly from San product is likely to cost $500 million gram is about to start an acoustic sur- Francisco to Tokyo over the Pacific dollars or more and, if successful, vey to quantify the audible footprint of but also from Los Angeles to Lon- needs a 50-year-old law to change be- an aircraft specially designed to pro- don by crossing over much of North fore it can enter commercial service. duce a shockwave signature of 75-80 America. The twin-jet design is lim- But as the saying goes, “Where PLdB. The results of flights over U.S. ited to Mach 1.8 to avoid a need for there’s a will, there’s a way,” and Los communities to measure the public variable-geometry inlets, Tie says. A “realistic” schedule, which Tie acknowledges is still ambitious, sets

EXOSONIC a marker for delivering the first certified Exosonic aircraft in the mid-2030s. The schedule includes a demonstration of a subscale de - sign to validate Exosonic’s low-boom prediction tools, followed first by a piloted demonstrator and then by the airliner prototype. If most private investors lack the patience for commercial aircraft development, the Air Force could offer a near-term financial bridge. Not only does the Air Force have a long-term interest in a supersonic jet for executive or special operations transport, the service may also have The U.S. military is considering a supersonic passenger jet for executive a near-term interest in the subscale, airlift and special operations missions, while a subscale prototype could low-boom demonstrator. Exosonic become a candidate for a supersonic unmanned aircraft system. plans to develop a 30-ft.-long unmanned supersonic jet within five Angeles-based startup Exosonic thinks acceptability of a reduced sonic boom years for $40 million, Tie says. The GE they have found the right formula to will inform a review of international Aviation J85-powered aircraft could develop a low-boom super sonic airlin- regulations that effectively prohibit help verify Exosonic’s boom prediction er: Start with the U.S. military. civil, overland supersonic flight. tools and possibly offer the Air Force The U.S. Air Force awarded Exo- Even if the noise created by X-59 an option for a supersonic, attritable sonic a $1 million, two-year contract flights over U.S. cities meets NASA’s drone design, he adds. on Aug. 12 to deliver a virtual reality and Lockheed’s expectations, it is un- The Air Force expects a rollout of model of a supersonic jet that could clear how regulators will respond. A the subscale prototype around 2025, one day serve as a presidential or ex- group of 62 environmental organiza- according to the presidential and ecutive transport. The deal added to tions is already organizing to block executive aircraft program office at $325,000 previously awarded by the any changes. In July, the group called Wright-Patterson AFB, Ohio. Air Force to Exosonic and nearly on the FAA to drop a proposal to Aerion has recently unveiled a mili- $150,000 chipped in by Silicon Valley amend noise standards during takeoff tary derivative of the AS2 concept, but seed- funding investor Y Combinator. and landing that would permit louder Exosonic is the first of the supersonic Exosonic founder Norris Tie, a supersonic aircraft to operate from jet startups to target the Air Force as Lockheed Martin Skunk Works alum- U.S. airports. a seed investor. nus, says he wants to produce a 50- Existing players in the supersonic “That differentiates us,” Tie says. 70-seat airliner with 5,000-nm range. renaissance say they are not counting “We have a military-first approach.” c

36 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST TECHNOLOGY Discover more www.engineleasingandfinance-europe.com U.S. Air Force Contract Launches on changes to the overland supersonic #ELTF | flight ban. Boom Supersonic, for ex- New Supersonic Jet Startup ample, has raised over $100 million by promising to deliver a Mach 2.2, > EXOSONIC HAS RAISED MORE THAN $1.5 MILLION SINCE 2019 55-seat airliner to serve only over- water routes. Boeing-backed Aerion, > SUBSCALE UAS PROTOTYPE SET FOR ROLLOUT AROUND 2025 meanwhile, is developing a Mach 1.4, 12-seat business jet, with a promised Steve Trimble Washington capability to cruise at Mach 1.2 over land without its supersonic boom aising money for a supersonic By shaping the fuselage to soften the reaching the ground. passenger jet is not an easy sell. irksome sonic boom created by a The Exosonic concept, however, RMost investors want to make a super sonic shockwave, Tie is seeking relies on overland routes at super- profit within 3-5 years, not wait a de- to capitalize on legal changes that may sonic speed to justify a business case cade or more merely for the product come within a decade. for producing hundreds of aircraft, to become available to sell. And that The NASA/Lockheed X-59 QueSST Tie says. The 5,000-nm range gives is before the fundraiser mentions the low-boom flight demonstrator pro- Exosonic the ability to fly from San 10-11 NOVEMBER 2020 product is likely to cost $500 million gram is about to start an acoustic sur- Francisco to Tokyo over the Pacific dollars or more and, if successful, vey to quantify the audible footprint of but also from Los Angeles to Lon- LONDON, UK needs a 50-year-old law to change be- an aircraft specially designed to pro- don by crossing over much of North fore it can enter commercial service. duce a shockwave signature of 75-80 America. The twin-jet design is lim- But as the saying goes, “Where PLdB. The results of flights over U.S. ited to Mach 1.8 to avoid a need for there’s a will, there’s a way,” and Los communities to measure the public variable-geometry inlets, Tie says. THE PREMIER CONFERENCE SOLELY FOCUSED A “realistic” schedule, which Tie acknowledges is still ambitious, sets ON ENGINE LEASING MANAGEMENT

EXOSONIC a marker for delivering the first certified Exosonic aircraft in the mid-2030s. The schedule includes Hear from engine leasing experts including: a demonstration of a subscale de - sign to validate Exosonic’s low-boom prediction tools, followed first by a piloted demonstrator and then by the airliner prototype. If most private investors lack the patience for commercial aircraft development, the Air Force could offer a near-term financial bridge. Not only does the Air Force have Romain Julie Dickerson Alexey Ivanov Andrea Luebke a long-term interest in a supersonic Chambard Managing Director, Sales Director Managing Director, jet for executive or special operations VP Marketing, Shannon Engine Russia & CIS, MTU Maintenance transport, the service may also have Rolls-Royce Support Magnetic MRO Lease Services The U.S. military is considering a supersonic passenger jet for executive a near-term interest in the subscale, airlift and special operations missions, while a subscale prototype could low-boom demonstrator. Exosonic become a candidate for a supersonic unmanned aircraft system. plans to develop a 30-ft.-long unmanned supersonic jet within five Angeles-based startup Exosonic thinks acceptability of a reduced sonic boom years for $40 million, Tie says. The GE they have found the right formula to will inform a review of international Aviation J85-powered aircraft could develop a low-boom super sonic airlin- regulations that effectively prohibit help verify Exosonic’s boom prediction er: Start with the U.S. military. civil, overland supersonic flight. tools and possibly offer the Air Force The U.S. Air Force awarded Exo- Even if the noise created by X-59 an option for a supersonic, attritable sonic a $1 million, two-year contract flights over U.S. cities meets NASA’s drone design, he adds. Denise Brian Ovington Allan Rennie Eddo Weijer on Aug. 12 to deliver a virtual reality and Lockheed’s expectations, it is un- The Air Force expects a rollout of Mangan-Fahy Director, Engine Technical Director, VP, Head Engine model of a supersonic jet that could clear how regulators will respond. A the subscale prototype around 2025, SVP, Portfolio Planning Services Marketing, KV Aviation Transactions, one day serve as a presidential or ex- group of 62 environmental organiza- according to the presidential and & Operations, GE Aviation GA Telesis ecutive transport. The deal added to tions is already organizing to block executive aircraft program office at GECAS Engine $325,000 previously awarded by the any changes. In July, the group called Wright-Patterson AFB, Ohio. Leasing Air Force to Exosonic and nearly on the FAA to drop a proposal to Aerion has recently unveiled a mili- $150,000 chipped in by Silicon Valley amend noise standards during takeoff tary derivative of the AS2 concept, but seed- funding investor Y Combinator. and landing that would permit louder Exosonic is the first of the supersonic Exosonic founder Norris Tie, a supersonic aircraft to operate from jet startups to target the Air Force as Host Sponsor Sponsors Official Publication Lockheed Martin Skunk Works alum- U.S. airports. a seed investor. nus, says he wants to produce a 50- Existing players in the supersonic “That differentiates us,” Tie says. 70-seat airliner with 5,000-nm range. renaissance say they are not counting “We have a military-first approach.” c

36 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST SUSTAINABILITY NIES OEN CONCES Startup Tackles Infrastructure Barrier to Decarbonizing With Hydrogen

Small regional airliners such as the Dash 8-300 will be converted > UNIVERSAL HYDROGEN INFRASTRUCTURE to fuel-cell propulsion DESIGNED TO BE SCALABLE GLOBALLY to create demand for hydrogen fuel. > TWO-CAPSULE FUEL-CELL MODULES WOULD BE EASILY TRANSPORTABLE

Graham Warwick Washington

Hydrogen is gaining is to prove out the company’s hydro- disparate times,” Eremenko says. attention as a means gen infrastructure before Airbus and “We are not especially keen to do to deeply decarbon- Boeing make technical decisions on either production or play long-term ize aviation, with the next generation of single-aisles in in the consumption business, but we Airbus looking at the latter half of the 2020s. may have to do a little bit of both in the fuel as one way “If we want hydrogen aviation to order to get the aviation hydrogen ONE IN A SERIES to meet its stated happen, we need a much more capital- market going.” commitment to bring light approach,” Eremenko says. “Our Universal Hydrogen is developing an aircraft with net-zero carbon emis- goal is to produce a minimally capi- both 850-bar high-pressure gas and sions to market by 2035. But previous tal-intensive approach to building a liquid-hydrogen capsules in the same e orts to bring hydrogen to aviation hydrogen infrastructure that is scal- interchangeable form factor so an have stumbled over the high cost bar- able to global scale.” airline can choose between them for rier of the infrastructure required for Universal Hydrogen is devel- each fl ight. “For the Dash 8-300 with production and distribution. oping lightweight, modular cap- the gaseous capsules, we get 400 nm Now former Airbus and United sules—“think of them as batteries,” range. With the liquid capsules, we Technologies Chief Technology O cer Eremenko says—that can be trans- get 550 nm,” Eremenko says. “The Paul Eremenko has launched a venture ported via the existing global inter- fleet-wide average stage length for to build the infrastructure for hydro- modal container network and loaded these aircraft is about 300 nm. So gen-powered commercial aviation. with existing airport equipment into even with the gaseous solution, you’re To kick-start the market, startup aircraft that have been minimally going to be able to perform 75-80% of Universal Hydrogen plans to convert modifi ed to operate on hydrogen. all missions fl own.” ATR 42 and De Havilland Canada “What we are trying to do is con- The capsule is a cylinder with Dash 8-300 regional aircraft to hy- nect production to consumption, and rounded ends, for more e cient pack- drogen fuel-cell propulsion to pump- allow them to take place in geograph- aging during transport and storage in

OO OINEINE NEINESESOOOE IES OO OINEINE NEINESESOOOE prime demand. But Eremenko’s goal ically disparate areas at temporally the aircraft, Universal Hydrogen Chief

3 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST SUSTAINABILITY NIES OEN CONCES

Technology O cer John-Paul Clarke economics in 2025—in terms of cost o ering it as a no-cost conversion in Startup Tackles Infrastructure Barrier says. One pair of capsules is mounted per available seat-mile—are estimated exchange for a long-term hydrogen to Decarbonizing With Hydrogen in a frame that provides structural to be roughly equal between the modi- fuel contract,” he says. The estab- support, plumbing and other systems. fi ed and unmodifi ed Dash 8. Hydrogen lished renewable-energy project fi- These two-capsule modules are then is projected to be more expensive than nance market would then be tapped transported as dry freight in cargo jet fuel in 2025, but that cost is expected to pay for the conversions. containers by road, rail or sea. At the to come down over time, he says. “The regional aircraft fuel market airport, they are loaded onto the air- “There will be a growing cost advan- is about $2 billion per year. So we craft using existing ground handling tage to hydrogen. On top of that, the might create a billion-dollar business equipment—or a forklift at more aus- maintenance and overhaul costs for a by supplying the regional market if tere locations, Eremenko says. fuel-cell-electric powertrain are quite we get really good penetration,” Ere- Insulated but uncooled, the liquid a bit lower than for a turboprop engine. menko says. “The huge opportunity capsule has a maximum 40-hr. dwell Our estimates for maintenance and in the 2030s is the single-aisle. And time between production and con- overhaul costs suggest at least a 25% both Airbus and Boeing seem likely sumption because overpressure improvement,” Eremenko says. to make decisions on the technology builds up as the hydrogen evaporates. base for the single-aisle in the mid-to- “As a result of that, and because liq- late 2020s, for an entry into service in uefaction is a more energy-intensive the early 2030s. And we would like to process than compression, an airline de-risk the decision for them, as much would pay more for the liquid cap- as we can, to go with hydrogen.” sule. But they’d get a slightly better Universal Hydrogen is six months range,” Eremenko says. into the initial design phase, self-funded In the case of the Dash-300 retro- to the tune of about $3-5 million if fi t, up to three modules—or six cap- partner e orts are included, he says. sules—are slotted into the rear fuse- “We’re going into detailed design in the Small regional airliners such as the lage forward of the cargo area, which next month or two. And, by this time Dash 8-300 will be converted would be untouched. The service next year, we would expect to have an door is widened slightly as part of the iron bird of the powertrain as well as > UNIVERSAL HYDROGEN INFRASTRUCTURE to fuel-cell propulsion DESIGNED TO BE SCALABLE GLOBALLY supplemental type certifi cate modi- an end-to-end demonstration of the to create demand for fi cation. The hydrogen is plumbed full-scale capsule technology.” hydrogen fuel. TWO-CAPSULE FUEL-CELL MODULES WOULD BE through the dorsal fin, exter- Experimental flight testing will > nal to the fuselage pressure follow, with one side of the aircraft EASILY TRANSPORTABLE vessel, into the nacelles. converted to fuel-cell propulsion and In each nacelle is a 2-mega- the other left unmodifi ed for safety watt hydrogen fuel-cell stack pow- of fl ight. “After experimental fl ight, ering an electric motor—either a we would go into certifi cation fl ight Graham Warwick Washington Interchangeable gaseous or single motor of about 2 megawatts or test. And alongside that, we would around 1.6 megawatts, plus a small- liquid-hydrogen capsules will be mature the hydrogen logistics net- Hydrogen is gaining is to prove out the company’s hydro- disparate times,” Eremenko says. er motor for auxiliary power. The transported and stored on aircraft work and develop a low-rate initial attention as a means gen infrastructure before Airbus and “We are not especially keen to do existing propeller and controller are in easy-to-handle modules. production system for the capsules to deeply decarbon- Boeing make technical decisions on either production or play long-term retained. A small lithium-ion battery and the modules,” he says. “To get us ize aviation, with the next generation of single-aisles in in the consumption business, but we handles throttle transients. Universal Hydrogen is working to market, we need an equity raise of Airbus looking at the latter half of the 2020s. may have to do a little bit of both in A fuel-cell’s only emissions are with partners to lighten a proven ter- about $300 million.” the fuel as one way “If we want hydrogen aviation to order to get the aviation hydrogen warm air and water vapor. A thermal- restrial fuel-cell and develop the mo- After kick-starting demand with ONE IN A SERIES to meet its stated happen, we need a much more capital- market going.” management system including a P-51 tor. “These are fundamentally o -the- its ATR and Dash 8 conversions, the commitment to bring light approach,” Eremenko says. “Our Universal Hydrogen is developing Mustang-style zero-drag radiator shelf technologies. I don’t want to startup plans to release its modifi- an aircraft with net-zero carbon emis- goal is to produce a minimally capi- both 850-bar high-pressure gas and on the nacelle cools the fuel cell and understate the challenge, but we cation as an open-source reference sions to market by 2035. But previous tal-intensive approach to building a liquid-hydrogen capsules in the same motor. The water is collected in the think our plan is attainable on a three- design that can be customized by e orts to bring hydrogen to aviation hydrogen infrastructure that is scal- interchangeable form factor so an outer-wing fuel tanks and dumped at year timescale,” he says. “We’re allow- developers of commuter aircraft, have stumbled over the high cost bar- able to global scale.” airline can choose between them for flight conditions when no contrails ing some margin with a 2024 entry single-engine turboprops or urban rier of the infrastructure required for Universal Hydrogen is devel- each fl ight. “For the Dash 8-300 with are produced. into service.” air mobility vehicles—Eremenko’s production and distribution. oping lightweight, modular cap- the gaseous capsules, we get 400 nm “We’ve designed the retrofit so The startup has also engaged the eyes are fi rmly on decarbonizing the Now former Airbus and United sules—“think of them as batteries,” range. With the liquid capsules, we that it meets or exceeds the nominal regional airframers. De Havilland single-aisle sector. Technologies Chief Technology O cer Eremenko says—that can be trans- get 550 nm,” Eremenko says. “The aircraft performance, other than the Canada has been “an exceptional Universal Hydrogen is already in Paul Eremenko has launched a venture ported via the existing global inter- fleet-wide average stage length for change in range capability,” Eremenko partner to us thus far,” Eremenko discussions with both Airbus and to build the infrastructure for hydro- modal container network and loaded these aircraft is about 300 nm. So says. “We lose two rows of seats in the says. “ATR, which is starting to think Boeing. “They’re both receptive and gen-powered commercial aviation. with existing airport equipment into even with the gaseous solution, you’re back. And we relocate the rear galley about hydrogen, has also been positive learning more about our approach To kick-start the market, startup aircraft that have been minimally going to be able to perform 75-80% of to the front, which causes us to lose toward the e ort.” and technology,” he says. “But the Universal Hydrogen plans to convert modifi ed to operate on hydrogen. all missions fl own.” two rear-facing seats in the front. So What would regional carriers have proof will be when we are actually in ATR 42 and De Havilland Canada “What we are trying to do is con- The capsule is a cylinder with we lose a total of 10 seats, and the to pay in exchange for going green? operation at scale from 2024 onward Dash 8-300 regional aircraft to hy- nect production to consumption, and rounded ends, for more e cient pack- Q300 goes from a 50-passenger to a “The value proposition that we o er showing that we have solved the in- drogen fuel-cell propulsion to pump- allow them to take place in geograph- aging during transport and storage in 40-passenger airplane.” is that we would subsidize the con- frastructure and logistics problem for c OO OINEINE NEINESESOOOE IES OO OINEINE NEINESESOOOE prime demand. But Eremenko’s goal ically disparate areas at temporally the aircraft, Universal Hydrogen Chief Despite the loss of seats, operating version to hydrogen for them, up to hydrogen for them.”

3 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 3 PROPULSION > USAF’s rotating detonation engine priority p. 44 AFRL’s rocket-based hypersonic testbed studies p. 46 Changing engines for attritable aircraft p. 48 GE

AETP tests in 2021 will be the first chance to run complete engines through their full adaptive cycles.

ADAPTIVE AIMS > GE XA100 AND P&W XA101 > ADAPTIVE FEATURES AND TECHNOLOGY STUDIED ON TRACK FOR 2021 TESTS FOR FOURTH- AND FIFTH-GEN UPGRADES

Guy Norris Los Angeles or more than half a century, U.S. air dominance has rested most notably included the Air Force on generations of advanced combat aircraft powered by Research Laboratory’s Adaptive Engine Technology Demonstration a succession of superior jet engines. But now, as adver- (AETD) and Adaptive Versatile En- saries threaten to close the gap, and significant improve- gine Technology (Advent) programs, F which over the previous decade ments in turbine technology become more difficult to achieve, a helped usher in the era of practical U.S. Air Force-led test effort to maintain this crucial power ad- variable-cycle propulsion. vantage is approaching a key phase. “We aim to open up the technology S-curve,” says David Tweedie, gener- Flight-weight prototypes of adap- needed to remain farther away from al manager of GE’s Advanced Combat tive, or three-stream, engines are the combat area. Engines, referring to the progress entering assembly ahead of tests The third stream will provide extra of innovation from slow beginnings planned to start in 2021. The engines, cooling air for thermal management. through a steeper acceleration phase General Electric’s XA100 and Pratt & This is becoming more challenging as to a flatter period of maturation. “The Whitney’s XA101, are the forerunners aircraft designers make increasing turbojet got us so far, and then it was of a new class of morphing propulsion use of composite materials, which in kind of running out of gas,” he says. systems that promise a step change general have 40 times lower heat con- “Then investments were made to in combat capability through the dy- ductivity than aluminum. Compound- establish the turbofan, and we spent namic modulation of a third stream ing the problem is the growing use of probably the last 40-50 years wring- of air. power-hungry sensors and systems, ing out the efficiency and capabilities Running separately from the con- including directed-energy weapons, of that technology S-curve. And now ventional core and bypass flows, the all of which generate excess heat. what we’re doing is inventing a third additional flow can be redirected to The XA100 and XA101 are the S-curve for jet propulsion.” provide 10% increased thrust during product of the Air Force Life-Cycle “Really, our program over the last combat or 25%-plus greater fuel effi- Management Center’s Adaptive four years has been all about design- ciency during cruise conditions com- Engine Transition Program (AETP), ing, fabricating and then testing the pared to a 2015 state-of-the-art fighter an effort launched in 2016 to prepare first-ever adaptive engines,” says engine. Aside from increasing range, demonstrator three-stream engines Lt. Col. James Rodriguez, materiel lower fuel burn will reduce the de - grown from earlier research efforts leader at the Life-Cycle Center’s Pro- mand for tankers and allow those still for full-scale development. These pulsion Acquisition Division. “Both

40 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST PROPULSION > USAF’s rotating detonation engine priority p. 44 AFRL’s rocket-based hypersonic testbed studies p. 46 Changing engines for attritable aircraft p. 48 GE

GE and Pratt & Whitney completed engines will also represent another now due to start in 2021 and will like- the detailed design of their engines, first for the program, as previous tests ly run into 2022. “We have a sched- AETP tests in 2021 will which is the design that we use to of the engine core rigs were limited by ule laid out with the four engines be the first chance to go build a prototype,” he says. “They having to adapt facilities to simulate that we’re going to be testing that is run complete engines both completed the detailed design inputs from the low-pressure system still moving around a little bit,” says Rodriguez. “After that, there’s going through their full phase within the last 18 months, and other components. and over the course of the last nine Tests will focus on the operability to be a little bit of time when we will adaptive cycles. months or so both contractors have and performance of variable geome- bring all that data in and really have started building their prototype entry devices that dynamically alter the an opportunity to analyze it and make gines. We are on track now to test the fan pressure ratio and overall bypass sure that the results are telling us first prototype engines in the next cal- ratio—the two key factors influenc- what we need. We will make sure that endar year.” ing specific fuel consumption and the capability benefits that we see are Each manufacturer is assembling thrust. Fan pressure ratio is changed accurate. At that point we have to see two complete engines for testing at its by using an adaptive, multistage fan what’s next.” own facilities and for simulated altitude evaluation at the Air Force’s Arnold Engineer- ing Development Complex in Tullahoma, Tennessee. “As U.S. AIR FORCE we run these prototypes and try to burn down the risks for a future follow-on engineering and manufacturing development (EMD) program, ADAPTIVE AIMS we will prioritize those risks that we see across the en- > GE XA100 AND P&W XA101 > ADAPTIVE FEATURES AND TECHNOLOGY STUDIED gines,” says Josh Mark, lead ON TRACK FOR 2021 TESTS FOR FOURTH- AND FIFTH-GEN UPGRADES engineer for propulsion development at the Propulsion Acquisition Division. Guy Norris Los Angeles “We need to get to altitude to do exactly those test ac- or more than half a century, U.S. air dominance has rested most notably included the Air Force tivities as it relates to flying on generations of advanced combat aircraft powered by Research Laboratory’s Adaptive across the envelope,” he adds. Engine Technology Demonstration “This isn’t a qualification pro- a succession of superior jet engines. But now, as adver- (AETD) and Adaptive Versatile En- gram per se, but it poises us saries threaten to close the gap, and significant improve- gine Technology (Advent) programs, for entry into an EMD-type F which over the previous decade of program so that we can go ments in turbine technology become more difficult to achieve, a helped usher in the era of practical do low-risk, high-confidence U.S. Air Force-led test effort to maintain this crucial power ad- variable-cycle propulsion. qualification testing.” vantage is approaching a key phase. “We aim to open up the technology The work builds directly S-curve,” says David Tweedie, gener- on the AETD effort, which focused on in combination with a variable-area Prior to the XA101, Pratt & Whitney’s Flight-weight prototypes of adap- needed to remain farther away from al manager of GE’s Advanced Combat proving the viability of the adaptive nozzle, while the third stream, which adaptive fan was tested on an F135. tive, or three-stream, engines are the combat area. Engines, referring to the progress concept through a series of large-scale is external to both the core flow and entering assembly ahead of tests The third stream will provide extra of innovation from slow beginnings rig tests of compressors, core engines standard bypass duct, is used to alter Lessons learned from the AETP planned to start in 2021. The engines, cooling air for thermal management. through a steeper acceleration phase and fan modules, as well as a number bypass ratio. will likely determine the future di- General Electric’s XA100 and Pratt & This is becoming more challenging as to a flatter period of maturation. “The of other rig tests for components such The variable features in the adap- rection of U.S. jet engine develop - Whitney’s XA101, are the forerunners aircraft designers make increasing turbojet got us so far, and then it was as turbines and combustors. “This is tive fan control how the inlet airflow ment for several decades to come, of a new class of morphing propulsion use of composite materials, which in kind of running out of gas,” he says. now putting all of those knobs and is split to meet the mass flow require- with implications not only for the systems that promise a step change general have 40 times lower heat con- “Then investments were made to widgets, as it were, into one package ments of the specific mode—with evolutionary path of sixth-genera- in combat capability through the dy- ductivity than aluminum. Compound- establish the turbofan, and we spent to demonstrate capability for perfor- more flow diverted into the bypass tion combat aircraft but also for ret- namic modulation of a third stream ing the problem is the growing use of probably the last 40-50 years wring- mance operability—whether it’s for for cruise and more flow into the core rofits and upgrades of fifth- and even of air. power-hungry sensors and systems, ing out the efficiency and capabilities takeoff or the acceleration parameters engine for the higher-thrust combat fourth-generation aircraft. Running separately from the con- including directed-energy weapons, of that technology S-curve. And now we are going for,” says Mark. mode. The variable-area nozzle, mean- “The Air Force has some decisions ventional core and bypass flows, the all of which generate excess heat. what we’re doing is inventing a third Testing will therefore focus not only while, works in conjunction with the to make there about what’s next,” says additional flow can be redirected to The XA100 and XA101 are the S-curve for jet propulsion.” on baseline engine performance in inlet system and back-pressures the Rodriguez. “We would anticipate that provide 10% increased thrust during product of the Air Force Life-Cycle “Really, our program over the last various adaptive modes across a ma- fan to increase fan pressure ratio for at the end of AETP, we’d go into an combat or 25%-plus greater fuel effi- Management Center’s Adaptive four years has been all about design- trix of altitudes and speeds but also on higher thrust and to reduce it for more EMD phase. We would go and actually ciency during cruise conditions com- Engine Transition Program (AETP), ing, fabricating and then testing the operability of the three streams and efficient cruise performance. put these engines through a more for- pared to a 2015 state-of-the-art fighter an effort launched in 2016 to prepare first-ever adaptive engines,” says associated heat-exchanger configu- Although originally expected to mal transition program, where we do engine. Aside from increasing range, demonstrator three-stream engines Lt. Col. James Rodriguez, materiel rations during dynamic transitions begin as early as 2019 with three test more testing as well as any additional lower fuel burn will reduce the de - grown from earlier research efforts leader at the Life-Cycle Center’s Pro- between cruise and combat modes. units from each contractor, the full design iterations that would be needed mand for tankers and allow those still for full-scale development. These pulsion Acquisition Division. “Both Operability evaluation using complete engine testing with just two units is to get these engines ready for flight.

40 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 41 PROPULSION

“Our real desire is that the test pro- The second effort is focused on AETP-related technology into legacy vides the opportunity for Air Force future air superiority applications af- engine fleets. “While that could be senior leadership to define what’s next. ter the F-35. “[It looks at] what those whole engine replacements, that’s Everybody’s looking at this program technologies would need to be to en- probably not likely,” says Rodriguez. saying, ‘Once we prove that this tech- able future platforms,” he says. The “It’s probably much more likely to be nology is ready, then we’ll figure out initiative appears to be closely linked performance modifications to existing where it goes next—whether that’s the to the Air Force’s Next- Generation engines, like perhaps the F119 or the F-35 or other platforms,’” he says. Adaptive Propulsion (NGAP) pro - F100 or F110. We are looking at where While it decides on where to go gram, under which GE and Pratt & you can take some of the components next for adaptive engine technology, Whitney are defining competing en- of an adaptive engine and some of the the Air Force is meanwhile using the gine concepts for the Next-Generation technologies and materials and incor- mechanism of the Life-Cycle Manage- Air Dominance program. porate those into those engines for ment Center and the AETP to bridge Details of both closely held initia- performance benefits.” the infamous “valley of death”—the tives were revealed for the first time in Key adaptive technologies such as technology readiness level between Air Force budget documents for fiscal advanced heat exchangers and high- the development of an innovative 2021 and indicate the two engine-maker-temperature-capable materials are breakthrough and its successful adop- ers are set to complete initial design therefore more likely to transfer as po- tion into service. “The Air Force has work by the second quarter of 2022 tential upgrades to fourth-generation over the years struggled to transition programs. We GE are absolutely, firmly, on the middle of that bridge and trying to get across it,” says Rodriguez. In the meantime, the Air Force is “trying to keep our options open as much

GE’s three-stream concept was initially tested during AFRL’s Advent program.

as possible,” he notes. The AETP program is therefore structured to support three lines of effort, the first being a potential form, fit and function replacement for the Pratt & Whitney F135 engine in the Lockheed Martin F-35. Designed as a 45,000-lb.-thrust-class engine to meet potential growth requirements for the Joint and finish tests of a full-scale engine combat engines than adaptive fans or Strike Fighter, the AETP engine is in 2025. The timeline also appears to third-stream ducting. “Many platform tailored as a drop-in unit for that dovetail with the AETP schedule that [programs] today are looking for how platform. The program would be “a is set to complete testing in 2022, they can incorporate additional mis- low-risk EMD, and we could tran- clearing the way for the development sion systems,” says Rodriguez. sition that technology fairly easily,” of follow-on adaptive engines for “Those mission systems take pow- Rodriguez says. “So that’s the first initial applications. er and thermal capacity,” he says. “It’s the first line of effort.” “[The] NGAP is our effort where all going to be very dependent on the So will the AETP engines be we are looking at those features for individual aircraft designs as to how ground-tested in an F-35? “That’s priority applications and determin- much the engine is incorporated into something that we certainly have ing what changes in the design would that. But we view that as a critical explored in the past, but it is not have to happen in order to enable fu- enabling technology of an adaptive an activity that we currently have ture aircraft,” says Rodriguez. “We are engine, that it provides much greater funded or that we are pursuing,” says actively looking at that right now, and power and thermal capacity than leg- Rodriguez. “But it is certainly avail- both of the contractors are working acy engines. And so that’s something able as an option to consider as we [on] those designs. We’re in the early that enables the aircraft to have more continue engaging with the F-35 Joint stages of that effort.” mission systems on board.” Program Office and will continue to The third line of effort is focused Pratt & Whitney, which eight years offer as a potential opportunity.” on ways of potentially incorporating ago battled its way back into conten-

42 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST PROPULSION

“Our real desire is that the test pro- The second effort is focused on AETP-related technology into legacy tion for the AETD with a self-funded “That’s what they’re asking us engine for the F-35 when that effort vides the opportunity for Air Force future air superiority applications af- engine fleets. “While that could be adaptive fan design after having lost to do—be agile in how we think the was canceled in 2011, sees the XA100 senior leadership to define what’s next. ter the F-35. “[It looks at] what those whole engine replacements, that’s earlier Advent award rounds to GE technologies that we jointly develop as both a potential gateway back into Everybody’s looking at this program technologies would need to be to en- probably not likely,” says Rodriguez. and Rolls-Royce, is determined to are used to provide upgrades,” says the F-35 as well as the basis for up - saying, ‘Once we prove that this tech- able future platforms,” he says. The “It’s probably much more likely to be protect its pole position as the sole- Bromberg. “We can tackle smaller, grades on other engines. “GE is very nology is ready, then we’ll figure out initiative appears to be closely linked performance modifications to existing source propulsion provider to the Air less risky, quicker-to-the-finish-line hopeful that when we get through where it goes next—whether that’s the to the Air Force’s Next- Generation engines, like perhaps the F119 or the Force for both the F-35 and F-22. To- type projects, and that’s what we think engine-testing and we show that the F-35 or other platforms,’” he says. Adaptive Propulsion (NGAP) pro - F100 or F110. We are looking at where day the engine-maker is assembling the engine enhancement packages do. data works, that when the Air Force While it decides on where to go gram, under which GE and Pratt & you can take some of the components the initial XA101. “[It is] the future We hope to provide similar solutions, looks at what they want out of the next for adaptive engine technology, Whitney are defining competing en- of an adaptive engine and some of the of fighter propulsion and the future both with an upgraded F100, which future of the F-35, [then] hopefully the Air Force is meanwhile using the gine concepts for the Next-Generation technologies and materials and incor- of military engines,” says Matthew is an early conversation, and an F119, this is an opportunity for them to mechanism of the Life-Cycle Manage- Air Dominance program. porate those into those engines for Bromberg, president of Pratt & as people look at the F-22 in 2040, capitalize on the significant investment Center and the AETP to bridge Details of both closely held initia- performance benefits.” Whitney Military Engines. [asking]: ‘What do we need out of ment they’ve made to really provide the infamous “valley of death”—the tives were revealed for the first time in Key adaptive technologies such as “The question is just when, and we the engine?’” transformational capability to that technology readiness level between Air Force budget documents for fiscal advanced heat exchangers and high- are laser-focused on our first engine Pratt & Whitney’s AETP-related up- platform,” says Tweedie. the development of an innovative 2021 and indicate the two engine-maker-temperature-capable materials are to test and racing with our program grade studies are led by the company’s Based on empirical data from com- breakthrough and its successful adop- ers are set to complete initial design therefore more likely to transfer as po- office to that milestone,” he adds. GatorWorks division, a prototyping ponent and rig tests, the company is tion into service. “The Air Force has work by the second quarter of 2022 tential upgrades to fourth-generation Bromberg says the adaptive concept— unit formed in 2018. Likening the po- confident the complete XA100 will over the years struggled to whether deployed as a stand-alone en- tential improvement options to Lego meet performance goals. GE also transition programs. We GE gine or as a wellspring for technology interlocking toy bricks, Bromberg continues to refine concepts “on how are absolutely, firmly, on insertion across engine families—is a says: “My GatorWorks are the Lego we could spin off component- and the middle of that bridge “win” for the U.S. “If I can provide an builders, and I’m asking them how do module-level improvements into and trying to get across it,” option that meets the needs in an agile they pull the best technologies off the our legacy fleet,” Tweedie adds. “We says Rodriguez. fashion, that takes a subset of AETP shelf and do it in the most cost-efficient continue to see interest from the Air In the meantime, the Air technologies and creates an upgrade manner? That’s what we’re pitching Force in terms of [upgrades]. The Force is “trying to keep to an F135, or potentially even an F119 right now to the government.” F-15EX is a great example of them our options open as much or an F100, that’s a home run for the GE, which lost its bid with Rolls- asking, ‘What can you do to increase Department of Defense,” he says. Royce to develop the F136 alternate the capability?’” c GE’s three-stream concept was initially tested during AFRL’s Advent program. as possible,” he notes. The AETP program is therefore structured to support three Go beyond the news of the lines of effort, the first being a potential form, fit and day with Aviation Week function replacement for the Pratt & Whitney F135 Intelligence Network’s engine in the Lockheed Martin F-35. Designed as Market Brieﬁ ngs. a 45,000-lb.-thrust-class engine to meet potential growth requirements for the Joint and finish tests of a full-scale engine combat engines than adaptive fans or Strike Fighter, the AETP engine is in 2025. The timeline also appears to third-stream ducting. “Many platform tailored as a drop-in unit for that dovetail with the AETP schedule that [programs] today are looking for how platform. The program would be “a is set to complete testing in 2022, they can incorporate additional mis- low-risk EMD, and we could tran- clearing the way for the development sion systems,” says Rodriguez. These sector-specifi c intelligence briefi ngs sition that technology fairly easily,” of follow-on adaptive engines for “Those mission systems take pow- Rodriguez says. “So that’s the first initial applications. er and thermal capacity,” he says. “It’s empower busy executives to stay-ahead of the the first line of effort.” “[The] NGAP is our effort where all going to be very dependent on the market, identify opportunities and drive revenue. So will the AETP engines be we are looking at those features for individual aircraft designs as to how ground-tested in an F-35? “That’s priority applications and determin- much the engine is incorporated into something that we certainly have ing what changes in the design would that. But we view that as a critical explored in the past, but it is not have to happen in order to enable fu- enabling technology of an adaptive LEARN MORE: an activity that we currently have ture aircraft,” says Rodriguez. “We are engine, that it provides much greater aviationweek.com/marketbrieﬁ ngs funded or that we are pursuing,” says actively looking at that right now, and power and thermal capacity than leg- Rodriguez. “But it is certainly avail- both of the contractors are working acy engines. And so that’s something able as an option to consider as we [on] those designs. We’re in the early that enables the aircraft to have more continue engaging with the F-35 Joint stages of that effort.” mission systems on board.” Program Office and will continue to The third line of effort is focused Pratt & Whitney, which eight years offer as a potential opportunity.” on ways of potentially incorporating ago battled its way back into conten-

42 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 43 PROPULSION

Rotating Detonation Engines Are an against 2015 technology and include a 25% improvement in fuel efficiency Emerging Priority for U.S. Air Force and a 10% boost in thrust-to-weight ratio for both large and small turbo- PRESSURE-GAIN COMBUSTION RDEs OFFER KEY FUEL SAVINGS fans and turbojets. For novel cycles, > including RDEs, the goal is 30% better > RDE CONTRACTS AWARDED TO GENERAL ELECTRIC, PRATT & WHITNEY fuel burn, while for expendable sys- AND AEROJET ROCKETDYNE tems the program is targeting 10% better fuel efficiency for supersonic Guy Norris Los Angeles engines and a 30% improvement for subsonic. Power and thermal manage- ith a technology development (VAATE) program, was the inclusion ment goals are at least a doubling of portfolio ranging from attri- of integrated power generation and capability for expendables, an eight- Wtable engines to distributed thermal management. “ATTAM is fold improvement for large turbofans propulsion, the Advanced Turbine attempting to go beyond VAATE, and 20 times the improvement for Technology for Affordable Mission which was more closely focused on small turbofans and turbojets. (ATTAM) capabilities initiative is a traditional turbine engines, and is Describing rotating detonation en- bellwether for future programs and looking at broader system capabilities gines as “definitely our top priority,” an inside guide to the Pentagon’s pro- to eke out everything we can from our Thomson says AFRL’s RDE research pulsion priority list. future engines,” he adds. explores entire propulsion systems that But four years after the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) formally rolled out ATTAM, the nation’s newest military engine technology development plan—while continuing the overall quest for speed, range and lower cost—is already evolving in some surprising new directions in response to perceived emerging threats and urgent capability needs. Heading up the list of high-importance new engine architectures is, for the first time, the rotating detonation engine (RDE)—a pressure-gain combustion concept that until now has remained USAF/AFRL at a low-technology readiness level despite decades of research. Alongside RDEs, other top ATTAM Air enters the RDE inlet and as it passes the isolator, it mixes with fuel priorities include ultra-low-cost ex- injected in a sequential, circular manner and ignited at the detonation pendable or attritable turbine en- annulus. The notional detonation wave front is indicated in red. gines and hybrid-electric distributed propulsion systems of the type being ATTAM’s broader research effort would potentially provide nearer- term evaluated for commercial urban air continues the trajectory established power options for high-speed cruise mobility platforms. Also on the list when VAATE took over in 2005 from missiles or possibly even an element are reusable high-speed turbojets for the Integrated High-Performance of a combined-cycle propulsion system use in hypersonic turbine-based com- Turbine- Engine Technology program, for larger hypersonic vehicles. bined-cycle systems. Work continues the first national propulsion-develop- “At the same time, we are look - to focus on adaptive engines, both ment initiative. Launched in 1987, that ing at where the rotating detonation in the development of three-stream program was focused on flange-to- might be used as an augmenter,” turbofans and advanced turboshafts. flange engine-performance improve- Thomson says. “For a more tradition- (See updates on adaptive, attritable ment, including doubling thrust-to- al turbine-engine architecture, we and combined-cycle programs on weight ratios, and paved the way for would also look at just replacing the pages 40, 48 and 46, respectively.) the Pratt & Whitney F119 and F135 en- combustion systems within that tur- “Sometimes the focus changes, and gines. VAATE’s goals were widened to bine-engine architecture with RDE then sometimes potential adversaries include affordability improvements as components. Those are the two main change what you think you might well as a 200% increase in the engine tracks that I would say we are on.” In want to do to stay ahead of them,” thrust-to-weight ratio and a 25% cut turbine engines, RDEs could replace says Daniel Thomson, ATTAM port- in fuel consumption. combustors, saving weight and elimi- folio manager. One of the overarching Today, ATTAM’s goals, which are nating a compressor stage for a given changes adopted in the new program closely aligned with the Defense De- overall pressure ratio and would also compared with its predecessor, partment’s Energy-Optimized Air- be shorter in overall length. AFRL’s decade-old Versatile Afford- craft sister effort in power and ther- Building largely on earlier research able Advanced Turbine Engines mal management, are baselined into pulse detonation engines (PDE)

44 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST PROPULSION

Rotating Detonation Engines Are an against 2015 technology and include a since the 1990s, AFRL’s newly in - 25% improvement in fuel efficiency creased focus on RDEs is the latest Emerging Priority for U.S. Air Force and a 10% boost in thrust-to-weight sign of a gradual acceleration of inter- ratio for both large and small turbo- est in pressure-gain combustion and PRESSURE-GAIN COMBUSTION RDEs OFFER KEY FUEL SAVINGS fans and turbojets. For novel cycles, propulsion over the past two decades. > including RDEs, the goal is 30% better RDEs offer a potential step change in > RDE CONTRACTS AWARDED TO GENERAL ELECTRIC, PRATT & WHITNEY fuel burn, while for expendable sys- thermodynamic efficiency because USAF/AFRL AND AEROJET ROCKETDYNE tems the program is targeting 10% combustion takes place at constant Initial applications for RDEs include potential engines better fuel efficiency for supersonic volume rather than constant pressure, for high-speed cruise missiles such as that pictured in Guy Norris Los Angeles engines and a 30% improvement for as in current engines. Combustion of the tail of this notional AFRL concept. subsonic. Power and thermal manage- the fuel-air mixture occurs at super- ith a technology development (VAATE) program, was the inclusion ment goals are at least a doubling of sonic speed as a detonation rather up to 15% better theoretical efficiency first phase of ATTAM. The bulk of portfolio ranging from attri- of integrated power generation and capability for expendables, an eight- than the subsonic deflagration seen or up to five times lower initial com- the work is divided equally between Wtable engines to distributed thermal management. “ATTAM is fold improvement for large turbofans in conventional combustors. The pro- bustion pressure. General Electric and Pratt & Whit- propulsion, the Advanced Turbine attempting to go beyond VAATE, and 20 times the improvement for cess results in a pressure gain—rather As another sign of increased inter- ney, which have each been awarded Technology for Affordable Mission which was more closely focused on small turbofans and turbojets. than loss—during combustion. est in RDEs, AFRL and the Air Force a contract worth $250 million to de- (ATTAM) capabilities initiative is a traditional turbine engines, and is Describing rotating detonation en- In an RDE, also known as a contin- Office of Scientific Research also velop, demonstrate and transition bellwether for future programs and looking at broader system capabilities gines as “definitely our top priority,” uous detonation wave engine, the det- joined forces on a rocket RDE effort the technology; Aerojet Rocketdyne an inside guide to the Pentagon’s pro- to eke out everything we can from our Thomson says AFRL’s RDE research onation wave travels around an annu- in 2014-15 to promote research into in- has signed a $20 million contract. Al- pulsion priority list. future engines,” he adds. explores entire propulsion systems that lus. As air and fuel are injected into jector designs and modeling with mul- though details of the proposed work But four years after the U.S. Air the annulus, the mixture is ignited by tiple universities. One of the research scope are sparse, all three companies Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) the detonation of the previous wave teams at the University of Central are due to complete test and develop- formally rolled out ATTAM, the na- and the process becomes self-sustain- Florida announced in May 2020 that ment work by September 2026. tion’s newest military engine technol- ing. The concept is also mechanically the completed study presents “for “The intention, if everything goes ogy development plan—while continu- simple, with few moving parts, and the first time, experimental evidence well and priorities remain the same, ing the overall quest for speed, range more efficient than PDEs, which re- of a safe and functioning hydrogen would be to take those concepts and and lower cost—is already evolving in quire the detonation chambers to be and oxygen propellant detonation in run them on a test stand for the some surprising new directions in re- purged after each pulse. a rotating detonation rocket engine.” propulsion system you would want sponse to perceived emerging threats AFRL is concurrently working Other agencies are also exploring to operate it on,” Thomson says. “It and urgent capability needs. Heading on an RDE rocket engine project air-breathing applications, including might not look like a completely tra- up the list of high-importance new that would use the pressure-gain DARPA, which in March 2020 award- ditional engine test.” engine architectures is, for the first combustion system in place of the ed Raytheon a contract worth almost Work will focus on integrated de- time, the rotating detonation engine signs with low loss inlets and efficient (RDE)—a pressure-gain combustion Shock waves ignite hot gases that expand diffusers that can reduce the impact concept that until now has remained USAF/AFRL out of the cylinder and are expelled of the interaction of the unsteady flow at a low-technology readiness level through a nozzle to generate thrust. from the RDE on the downstream despite decades of research. turbine stages. Key challenges also Alongside RDEs, other top ATTAM Air enters the RDE inlet and as it passes the isolator, it mixes with fuel include development and testing of priorities include ultra-low-cost ex- injected in a sequential, circular manner and ignited at the detonation nonmechanical, fluidic inlet valves pendable or attritable turbine en- annulus. The notional detonation wave front is indicated in red. with high-frequency response to pre- gines and hybrid-electric distributed vent pressure pulses from detonations propulsion systems of the type being ATTAM’s broader research effort would potentially provide nearer- term traveling upstream into the compres- evaluated for commercial urban air continues the trajectory established power options for high-speed cruise sor. Other design challenges include mobility platforms. Also on the list when VAATE took over in 2005 from missiles or possibly even an element advanced high-speed fuel-injection are reusable high-speed turbojets for the Integrated High-Performance of a combined-cycle propulsion system systems that avoid deflagration and use in hypersonic turbine-based com- Turbine- Engine Technology program, for larger hypersonic vehicles. development of practical combustion bined-cycle systems. Work continues the first national propulsion-develop- “At the same time, we are look - devices that use liquid fuels for all Air to focus on adaptive engines, both ment initiative. Launched in 1987, that ing at where the rotating detonation Force applications. in the development of three-stream program was focused on flange-to- might be used as an augmenter,” The designs will also tackle the is- turbofans and advanced turboshafts. flange engine-performance improve- Thomson says. “For a more tradition- sue of thermal management systems, (See updates on adaptive, attritable ment, including doubling thrust-to- al turbine-engine architecture, we which do not overpenalize perfor- and combined-cycle programs on weight ratios, and paved the way for would also look at just replacing the mance with excess cooling bleed air. pages 40, 48 and 46, respectively.) the Pratt & Whitney F119 and F135 en- combustion systems within that tur- AEROJET ROCKETDYNE Other basic problems to overcome “Sometimes the focus changes, and gines. VAATE’s goals were widened to bine-engine architecture with RDE include development of new tech - then sometimes potential adversaries include affordability improvements as components. Those are the two main conventional turbopump-fed rocket $1 million to study an RDE-powered niques to measure and verify RDE change what you think you might well as a 200% increase in the engine tracks that I would say we are on.” In chamber. Also studied by NASA in long-range strike missile concept. performance. Although researchers want to do to stay ahead of them,” thrust-to-weight ratio and a 25% cut turbine engines, RDEs could replace the 2000s as a lightweight option for Earlier research has shown pressure- use mass flow rates and thrust to says Daniel Thomson, ATTAM port- in fuel consumption. combustors, saving weight and elimi- upper-stage engines as well as for gain combustion can be beneficial to assess overall operation, the lack of folio manager. One of the overarching Today, ATTAM’s goals, which are nating a compressor stage for a given lunar and planetary landers that re- ramjet system efficiency up to speeds means to measure internal conditions, changes adopted in the new program closely aligned with the Defense De- overall pressure ratio and would also quire deep throttling capability, the of Mach 3. mixing rates and injector performance compared with its predecessor, partment’s Energy-Optimized Air- be shorter in overall length. AFRL rocket project began an initial AFRL meanwhile has awarded means the reasons for good or poor AFRL’s decade-old Versatile Afford- craft sister effort in power and ther- Building largely on earlier research ground test campaign in 2017. AFRL three key RDE development con- performance levels can at the present able Advanced Turbine Engines mal management, are baselined into pulse detonation engines (PDE) says an RDE-based rocket would have tracts worth $520 million under the time only be inferred. c

44 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 45 PROPULSION

U.S. Air Force Studies Rocket-Based designated—was configured with a TBCC propulsion system by the time Hypersonic Flying Testbed Plan of its cancellation in 2004. Another promising early U.S. project on which Mayhem could draw is a > MAYHEM IS AN EXPENDABLE AIR-BREATHING DEMONSTRATOR Mach 4.5 supercharged ejector ramjet (SERJ) developed in the 1960s ROCKET-BASED CYCLE IS THE BASELINE, BUT THE DOOR IS OPEN > by the long-vanished Marquardt TO A TURBINE OPTION Corp. as a proposed development for testing on the North American X-15 Guy Norris Los Angeles and Steve Trimble Washington hypersonic research aircraft. Considered as a potential high- o fully exploit the military sonic fl ight capabilities independent Mach propulsion option for combat utility of hypersonic speed in of potential payloads,” the AFRL says. and reconnaissance aircraft of the Troles beyond high-speed weap- Although the choice of propulsion 1970s, the SERJ-176E engine would ons, the U.S. Air Force is stepping up system has not yet officially been have replaced the X-15’s standard its decades-long quest to develop a determined, the AFRL is believed to XLR-99 rocket in the tail and was fed combined-cycle air-breathing probe leaning in favor of a rocket-based by air through a 2D variable-geom- pulsion system as an enabler for combined cycle (RBCC) over the al- etry inlet. The ramjet incorporated reusable vehicles. ternative turbine-based combined a ring of internally mounted rocket The plan promises to unlock the cycle (TBCC). For hypersonic appli- engines inside the duct to generate a wider tactical potential of Mach 5-plus cations, rocket-based multicycle con- high-velocity exhaust and entrain air capability and fulfill the long-held cepts have been studied principally into the inner fl ow path. ambitions of hypersonic proponents, for operation at speeds up to Mach To supercharge the system, some who since the 1960s have envisioned 6-plus and altitudes of 100,000- inlet fl ow was to be diverted to pow- high-speed vehicles for roles ranging 200,000 ft. er a small gas generator enclosed from intelligence, surveillance and re- The RBCC di ers from the better- in front of and beneath the SERJ. connaissance to multistage-to-orbit known TBCC configuration in that The gas generator powered a fan launch systems. However, despite numerous studies and ground tests of scaled multi- China RBCC Engine Configuration cycle propulsion systems, two major questions still face developers: Which Primary Rocket Pylon Cavity is the best propulsion system combination for the reusable hypersonic

cruiser role? And how should the Inlet Isolator Mixer Combustor 1 Combustor 2 Nozzle chosen concept and its mode transitions be fl ight-tested at a usefully Source: Nortwestern otecnca nerstS rt ept representative scale? Now, as the U.S. Air Force enters U.S. interest in RBCC is reviving as work steps up on international projects a fast-paced four-year fl ight-test program of rocket-boosted hypersonic such as this combined-cycle concept now under development in China. weapons—both gliders and scramjet-powered—the service is quietly the initial acceleration to ramjet/ mounted in front of the ejector ram- preparing to answer these ques- scramjet takeover speed is provided jet. The engine, which was designed tions by planning development of an by air-augmented or ducted rocket to burn jet fuel and hydrogen per- air-breathing demonstrator vehicle. power rather than an air-breathing oxide as an oxidizer, was success- Dubbed Mayhem, the fl ying testbed turbojet. At higher Mach numbers fully ground-tested at subscale by plan came to light in August in Air for vehicles designed for space ac- Marquardt and Aerojet but never Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) cess, the system would also transi- progressed to fl ight testing. budget planning documents that de- tion to pure rocket propulsion for the Since the 1980s, other proposed scribe a proposal to develop “multi- fi nal ascent. RBCC developments in the U.S. have cycle engines.” Although the U.S. Air Force has traditionally focused on powering the First disclosed in a request for in- studied RBCC systems for decades, first stage of two-stage-to-orbit formation published on Aug. 12 for including for multistage-to-orbit (TSTO) launchers, although an RBCC an “Expendable Hypersonic Multi- space launchers, no U.S.-developed that integrated a liquid rocket engine Mission Air-Breathing Demonstra- vehicle using a rocket-based com- and a deep-cooled turbojet (DCTJ) tor,” Mayhem is expected to be capa- bined cycle is ever thought to have was also initially proposed for the ble of hosting at least three di erent reached the fl ight-test stage. A larger- McDonnell Douglas DC-X Delta Clip- payloads on each fl ight. The vehicle scale RBCC-powered version of the per single-stage-to-orbit vehicle. was also known early in its inception X-43 experimental hypersonic vehicle RBCC systems were also baselined phase as “a ‘Multi-Mission Cruiser’ fl own in the early 2000s was consid- for the X-30 National AeroSpace due to the focus on sustained hyper- ered, but the X-43B—as it was later Plane as well as NASA’s Highly Reus-

4 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST PROPULSION

U.S. Air Force Studies Rocket-Based designated—was configured with a shutdown above Mach 6, at which TBCC propulsion system by the time Air-Breathing Rocket Operating Modes point a high-expansion rocket would Hypersonic Flying Testbed Plan of its cancellation in 2004. take over. Another promising early U.S. proj- Other related and more recent ect on which Mayhem could draw is a MODE 1 Air-Augmented Rocket Mode: Mach 0.7 to ~3.5 Rockets ON propulsion concepts include Reac- Fuel Injection ON > MAYHEM IS AN EXPENDABLE AIR-BREATHING DEMONSTRATOR Mach 4.5 supercharged ejector ram- tion Engines’ SABRE (Synergetic jet (SERJ) developed in the 1960s Air-Breathing Rocket Engine), which ROCKET-BASED CYCLE IS THE BASELINE, BUT THE DOOR IS OPEN > by the long-vanished Marquardt is in development for hypersonic and TO A TURBINE OPTION Corp. as a proposed development for space access applications. The sys- ehice testing on the North American X-15 ohoc tem is based on a precooler, which is Guy Norris Los Angeles and Steve Trimble Washington hypersonic research aircraft. Fuel Injection also being offered separately to con- Considered as a potential high- dition inlet air for boosting perfor- o fully exploit the military sonic fl ight capabilities independent Mach propulsion option for combat mance in modified turbojets—either MODE 2 Ramjet Mode: Mach ~3.5 to ~5 Rocket OFF utility of hypersonic speed in of potential payloads,” the AFRL says. and reconnaissance aircraft of the Fuel Injection ONLY in standalone engines or potentially Troles beyond high-speed weap- Although the choice of propulsion 1970s, the SERJ-176E engine would as part of TBCC systems. ons, the U.S. Air Force is stepping up system has not yet officially been have replaced the X-15’s standard For RBCC applications, the inte- its decades-long quest to develop a determined, the AFRL is believed to XLR-99 rocket in the tail and was fed Mach <1 grated SABRE system operates in combined-cycle air-breathing probe leaning in favor of a rocket-based by air through a 2D variable-geom- two modes: an air-breathing mode in pulsion system as an enabler for combined cycle (RBCC) over the al- etry inlet. The ramjet incorporated Subsonic Combustion which the precooler combines with a reusable vehicles. ternative turbine-based combined a ring of internally mounted rocket turbo-compressor to deliver chilled The plan promises to unlock the cycle (TBCC). For hypersonic appli- engines inside the duct to generate a air directly into a rocket combustion MODE 3 Scramjet Mode: Mach ~5+ Rocket OFF wider tactical potential of Mach 5-plus cations, rocket-based multicycle con- high-velocity exhaust and entrain air Fuel Injection ONLY chamber and, secondly, in a pure- capability and fulfill the long-held cepts have been studied principally into the inner fl ow path. closed-cycle rocket mode where ambitions of hypersonic proponents, for operation at speeds up to Mach To supercharge the system, some LH2 is burned with an onboard load who since the 1960s have envisioned 6-plus and altitudes of 100,000- inlet fl ow was to be diverted to pow- of liquid oxygen. high-speed vehicles for roles ranging 200,000 ft. er a small gas generator enclosed Mach >1 RBCC concepts have also been from intelligence, surveillance and re- The RBCC di ers from the better- in front of and beneath the SERJ. evaluated in Russia and China; the connaissance to multistage-to-orbit known TBCC configuration in that The gas generator powered a fan Supersonic Combustion former include an air turbo rocket launch systems. deeply cooled cycle developed by MODE 4 Rocket Mode Rockets ON However, despite numerous stud- Fuel Injection OFF the Moscow-based Central Institute ies and ground tests of scaled multi- China RBCC Engine Configuration of Aviation Motors. The concept cycle propulsion systems, two major integrates a precooler and turbo questions still face developers: Which Primary Rocket Pylon Cavity compressor that supply chilled high- is the best propulsion system combi- Cowl Closed pressure air to a rocket combustion nation for the reusable hypersonic chamber, where it is burned with Inlet Isolator Combustor Nozzle cruiser role? And how should the Inlet Isolator Mixer Combustor 1 Combustor 2 Nozzle LH2. The hydrogen acts as a rocket chosen concept and its mode tran- fuel, while also being a coolant and sitions be fl ight-tested at a usefully Source: Nortwestern otecnca nerstS rt ept Source: NASA/AW&ST Art Dept. powering the turbine. As the LH2 representative scale? exits the turbine, it can then be used Now, as the U.S. Air Force enters U.S. interest in RBCC is reviving as work steps up on international projects Although never flight-tested, the proposed X-43B ISTAR indicates how a typical to potentially power a ramjet. a fast-paced four-year fl ight-test pro- The status of China’s RBCC devel- gram of rocket-boosted hypersonic such as this combined-cycle concept now under development in China. RBCC propulsion system might operate. opments remain obscure, although weapons—both gliders and scram- able Space Transportation program. Other proposed RBCC concepts for in late 2018 researchers from North- jet-powered—the service is quietly the initial acceleration to ramjet/ mounted in front of the ejector ram- More recently, in the early 2000s, TSTO launchers in the U.S. have in- western Polytechnical University in preparing to answer these ques- scramjet takeover speed is provided jet. The engine, which was designed NASA also began the Integrated Sys- cluded the Aspirating Rocket Engine, Xian disclosed details of an ongoing tions by planning development of an by air-augmented or ducted rocket to burn jet fuel and hydrogen per- tem Test of an Airbreathing Rocket in which liquefied air taken from the program into a variable-geometry air-breathing demonstrator vehicle. power rather than an air-breathing oxide as an oxidizer, was success- (ISTAR) RBCC demonstration pro- atmosphere is mixed with liquid oxy- concept that appears aimed at a Dubbed Mayhem, the fl ying testbed turbojet. At higher Mach numbers fully ground-tested at subscale by gram in support of the X-43B. The gen and burned with liquid hydrogen reusable hypersonic cruise vehicle plan came to light in August in Air for vehicles designed for space ac- Marquardt and Aerojet but never ISTAR effort was paralleled by (LH2) in a conventional rocket engine. rather than for access to space. Sim- Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) cess, the system would also transi- progressed to fl ight testing. NASA’s Revolutionary Turbine Ac- In this cycle, originally outlined by ilar in concept to the early Marquardt budget planning documents that de- tion to pure rocket propulsion for the Since the 1980s, other proposed celerator project for the agency’s Vladimir Balepin of MSE Technology ejector ramjet, the Xian RBCC incor- scribe a proposal to develop “multi- fi nal ascent. RBCC developments in the U.S. have TBCC accompanying demonstra- Applications, the LH2 would be used porates a set of small bipropellant cycle engines.” Although the U.S. Air Force has traditionally focused on powering the tion program. To develop the ISTAR as a fuel, a coolant and to drive the rockets integrated into the ramjet/ First disclosed in a request for in- studied RBCC systems for decades, first stage of two-stage-to-orbit RBCC, an industry team called the turbine in the turbomachinery. scramjet duct. In this case, the rock- formation published on Aug. 12 for including for multistage-to-orbit (TSTO) launchers, although an RBCC Rocket-Based Combined-Cycle con- Another MSE RBCC concept that ets, which are RP-1/liquid-oxygen- an “Expendable Hypersonic Multi- space launchers, no U.S.-developed that integrated a liquid rocket engine sortium was created, which includ- was studied in the early 2000s by fueled, are situated in the aft end of Mission Air-Breathing Demonstra- vehicle using a rocket-based com- and a deep-cooled turbojet (DCTJ) ed what was then Boeing Rocket- the AFRL is the KLIN cycle, which the isolator directly upstream of the tor,” Mayhem is expected to be capa- bined cycle is ever thought to have was also initially proposed for the dyne, GenCorp Aerojet and Pratt proposes combining a thermally in- mixer and combustor. ble of hosting at least three di erent reached the fl ight-test stage. A larger- McDonnell Douglas DC-X Delta Clip- & Whitney. Aerojet contributed the tegrated DCTJ with a liquid rocket Although no details of the pro - payloads on each fl ight. The vehicle scale RBCC-powered version of the per single-stage-to-orbit vehicle. Strutjet, which was based on an ear- engine. In this cycle, LH2 fuel for the posed application have emerged, re- was also known early in its inception X-43 experimental hypersonic vehicle RBCC systems were also baselined lier cooled strut design developed rocket and turbojet engines is used searchers in China say the concept is phase as “a ‘Multi-Mission Cruiser’ fl own in the early 2000s was consid- for the X-30 National AeroSpace to inject hydrogen into the scramjet to deeply cool inlet air to boost the designed to propel a vehicle from a due to the focus on sustained hyper- ered, but the X-43B—as it was later Plane as well as NASA’s Highly Reus- combustor on the X-30. pressure ratio in the jet engine until standing start to high Mach numbers

4 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 47 PROPULSION

and return it to landing. The program and is in the first of three planned Combined-cycle Engine Technology is targeting improvements in overall development phases. efforts, the latter completed in 2009. RBCC performance in ejector mode, The AFRL says TBCC options will Combining an off-the-shelf turbine and a version of the engine has been also be considered for Mayhem. Led and dual-mode ramjet/scramjet run through a series of direct-con- by the Air Force, DARPA and NASA, (DMRJ), the AFRE engine uses mass- nect experiments to assess the effects TBCC technology development over injection precompressor cooling to on ejection of manipulating second- the past two decades has focused boost the maximum speed of the tur- ary fuel-burning and throttling the largely on testing high-speed tur - bine. The water injection system, rocket in the duct. Other tests have bines to close the gap between jet and together with the common turbine/ also assessed the effects of a variable- ramjet/ scramjet takeover transition, DMRJ inlet, combustor and nozzle, geometry combustor and throat area. as well as the control and mechanics are due to be integrated later this The testing also appears to have suc- of mode transition. year into the complete TBCC assem- cessfully demonstrated continued Testing of high-Mach engines, con- bly. Freejet testing of the engine is set combustion during transition from ducted over the past decade under to occur in 2021. rocket-ramjet to pure ramjet mode the Air Force/DARPA High-Speed NASA’s long-running Hypersonic at Mach 3. Turbine Engine Demonstration pro- Technology Project, which included Chinese researchers in Beijing gram and follow-on AFRL Super sonic tests of a large-model TBCC under the are also actively developing the Turbine Engine for Long-Range pro- Combined-Cycle Large-Scale Inlet turbo-aided rocket-augmented ram/ gram, paved the way for the ongo - Mode Transition program, also con- scramjet combined cycle, designed ing Advanced Full-Range Engine tinues TBCC concept studies. Earlier to operate from a standing start to (AFRE) initiative. Led by DARPA, this year, NASA announced it is work- Mach 6, and from sea level to 33 km together with the Air Force, AFRE ing with GE Aviation to develop high- (20 mi.). The propulsion system, is testing elements of a TBCC system temperature ceramic matrix compos- which is on track for flight tests in designed for future runway-based re- ite materials for component parts. the mid-2020s, combines a turbine usable hypersonic vehicles operating NASA also selected GE’s F101 turbo- engine, rocket and ramjet with a up to Mach 5. AFRE builds on pre - fan for analysis as part of studies of a common adaptable inlet and exhaust vious Mode Transition and Falcon TBCC-powered concept vehicle. c

Attritable Aircraft Prompt Changes If that applies to the attritable aircraft category, the new class of attritable en- in Jet Engine Designs gines could result in a price range of about $300,000 to $3 million. However, the AFRL wants to break that 15% ra- ROLLS, PRATT AND KRATOS ENTER ATTRITABLE ENGINE MARKET > tio for attritable engine prices. > AFRL SEEKS TO BREAK COST-RATIO PARADIGM FOR ENGINES “I think there’s some opportunities to go much cheaper,” says Daniel Steve Trimble Washington Thomson, the AFRL’s portfolio manager for the Advanced Turbine Technol- s a boundary-blurring line of Kratos in March 2019 acquired Florida ogies for Affordable Mission (ATTAM) “attritable” aircraft gains inter- Turbine Technologies, a previous re- capabilities program, which includes Aest, the U.S. Air Force is taking cipient of contracts from the Air Force an attritable engine component. a new look at traditional principles of jet Research Laboratory (AFRL), to design An attritable aircraft is defined engine design with the goal of defining a a low-pressure module for a “Low-Cost, as being affordable enough to be ex- propulsion system that falls somewhere High-Efficiency Attritable” turbofan. pendable on any mission yet capable between expendable and fully reusable. All these industry projects are seek- enough to fly multiple sorties if called A Williams International FJ33 turbo- ing to capitalize on the Air Force’s upon. Thomson acknowledges that fan powered the first flight of the Kratos plans to develop a family of low-cost sets up a tricky design requirement XQ-58 Valkyrie in March 2019, but the unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) for an engine manufacturer. Michigan-based maker of small turbo- under the Digital Century Series ini- “People say that if I just make it fan engines can expect competition. tiative. With the latest generation of so it doesn’t last as long, it’s going to Rolls-Royce LibertyWorks an- manned aircraft bristling with ex- be cheaper,” Thomson says. “As with nounced in August the completion of pensive capabilities—albeit in small many things, but especially with en- rig tests on a small engine designed for quantities—the Air Force is seeking gines, that’s not exactly true.” the “expendable and attritable market to rebuild mass and strike capacity in For example, a common tempera- for the Department of Defense,” the the combat fleet with hundreds, if not ture at the first stator outlet position company said. Rolls-Royce’s release thousands, of attritable UAS priced of a combustor—one of the hottest followed an announcement by Pratt & between $2 million and $20 million. parts of an engine—is above 1,000C Whitney in 2019 that launched devel- A rule of thumb in the aircraft in- (1,832F). Only a few costly materials opment of the FJ700 family of small tur- dustry sets engine prices at around can survive at such a temperature for bofans for the same application. Finally, 15% of the overall cost of the aircraft. any length of time.

48 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST US AR FORCE PROPULSION and return it to landing. The program and is in the first of three planned Combined-cycle Engine Technology “That temperature is going to is targeting improvements in overall development phases. efforts, the latter completed in 2009. drive you to make certain design RBCC performance in ejector mode, The AFRL says TBCC options will Combining an off-the-shelf turbine and material decisions just [so it is] and a version of the engine has been also be considered for Mayhem. Led and dual-mode ramjet/scramjet able to survive a few seconds even,” run through a series of direct-con- by the Air Force, DARPA and NASA, (DMRJ), the AFRE engine uses mass- Thomson says. “It’s going to create nect experiments to assess the effects TBCC technology development over injection precompressor cooling to basically an inherent life that might on ejection of manipulating second- the past two decades has focused boost the maximum speed of the tur- be longer than you think you really ary fuel-burning and throttling the largely on testing high-speed tur - bine. The water injection system, need in an application. rocket in the duct. Other tests have bines to close the gap between jet and together with the common turbine/ “What matters perhaps more is also assessed the effects of a variable- ramjet/ scramjet takeover transition, DMRJ inlet, combustor and nozzle, what you want to do with [the engine] The rst generation of jet engines, such as the F-84’s J35 (pictured), came geometry combustor and throat area. as well as the control and mechanics are due to be integrated later this as opposed to just [service] life in and with 100-hr. time-between-overhaul ratings. Attritable engines may come The testing also appears to have suc- of mode transition. year into the complete TBCC assem- of itself,” he says. “So when we talk cessfully demonstrated continued Testing of high-Mach engines, con- bly. Freejet testing of the engine is set about targeted life, what we’re really with a similar service lifetime to achieve a ordability targets. combustion during transition from ducted over the past decade under to occur in 2021. doing is coupling the [service] life as rocket-ramjet to pure ramjet mode the Air Force/DARPA High-Speed NASA’s long-running Hypersonic a requirement that’s equal to other polymer mandrel. The composite pre- “Every time we have an incident, at Mach 3. Turbine Engine Demonstration pro- Technology Project, which included requirements.” preg had to be cured in an autoclave, we add a new step to the process . . . Chinese researchers in Beijing gram and follow-on AFRL Super sonic tests of a large-model TBCC under the If simply using cheaper, lower-tem- but the dry ﬁ ber was infused with a or another test or another analysis,” are also actively developing the Turbine Engine for Long-Range pro- Combined-Cycle Large-Scale Inlet perature materials is not a panacea low-cost epoxy in a vacuum-assisted Thomson says. “With attritable, I’m turbo-aided rocket-augmented ram/ gram, paved the way for the ongo - Mode Transition program, also con- for the issues facing attritable engine resin transfer-molding process. trying to think: ‘Well, what exquisite scramjet combined cycle, designed ing Advanced Full-Range Engine tinues TBCC concept studies. Earlier design, the AFRL has other options. Another option is driving time- things can we get rid of at the be- to operate from a standing start to (AFRE) initiative. Led by DARPA, this year, NASA announced it is work- The AFRL fabricated an 11-ft.-long, consuming processes out of the man- ginning?’ Mach 6, and from sea level to 33 km together with the Air Force, AFRE ing with GE Aviation to develop high- S-shaped engine inlet duct for an ufacturing process altogether. A jet “So it’s not really about, say, dialing (20 mi.). The propulsion system, is testing elements of a TBCC system temperature ceramic matrix compos- attritable UAS this year with a new engine for a manned aircraft is subject in a number and then a design system which is on track for flight tests in designed for future runway-based re- ite materials for component parts. process. Instead of hand-applying to continuous airworthiness reviews, cranks something out. It’s really more the mid-2020s, combines a turbine usable hypersonic vehicles operating NASA also selected GE’s F101 turbo- composite prepreg to a steel mandrel, with any new incident in service po- about determining what my target is engine, rocket and ramjet with a up to Mach 5. AFRE builds on pre - fan for analysis as part of studies of a the AFRL used an automated system tentially adding time and cost to the and then making design trades to common adaptable inlet and exhaust vious Mode Transition and Falcon TBCC-powered concept vehicle. c to apply dry ﬁ ber to a shape-memory production process. meet that target,” he adds. c

Attritable Aircraft Prompt Changes If that applies to the attritable aircraft category, the new class of attritable en- in Jet Engine Designs gines could result in a price range of about $300,000 to $3 million. However, the AFRL wants to break that 15% ra- ROLLS, PRATT AND KRATOS ENTER ATTRITABLE ENGINE MARKET > tio for attritable engine prices. Announcing PB&W’s Latest TransacƟons > AFRL SEEKS TO BREAK COST-RATIO PARADIGM FOR ENGINES “I think there’s some opportunities to go much cheaper,” says Daniel - Designer and manufacturer of RF and EMI absorbing materials. Steve Trimble Washington Thomson, the AFRL’s portfolio manager for the Advanced Turbine Technol- - Naval, airborne and telecom s a boundary-blurring line of Kratos in March 2019 acquired Florida ogies for Affordable Mission (ATTAM) applicaƟons. “attritable” aircraft gains inter- Turbine Technologies, a previous re- capabilities program, which includes PB&W advises companies in North America, the United Kingdom Aest, the U.S. Air Force is taking cipient of contracts from the Air Force an attritable engine component. and the European Union that design and produce - San Diego, CA. a new look at traditional principles of jet Research Laboratory (AFRL), to design An attritable aircraft is defined highly-engineered products, soŌware and systems for the engine design with the goal of defining a a low-pressure module for a “Low-Cost, as being affordable enough to be ex- Aerospace, Defense, Intel and Technology Markets. PB&W’s propulsion system that falls somewhere High-Efficiency Attritable” turbofan. pendable on any mission yet capable services include Company Sales, Mergers, Corporate DivesƟtures, - Designer and manufactuer of HF antennas ranging in size from 2-18m. between expendable and fully reusable. All these industry projects are seek- enough to fly multiple sorties if called AcquisiƟons, Select Private Placements and Fairness Opinions. A Williams International FJ33 turbo- ing to capitalize on the Air Force’s upon. Thomson acknowledges that Driven by a research focused approach, in-depth market - SATCOM, radar, EW and HF fan powered the first flight of the Kratos plans to develop a family of low-cost sets up a tricky design requirement knowledge, strong industry relaƟonships and transacƟon applicaƟons. XQ-58 Valkyrie in March 2019, but the unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) for an engine manufacturer. experƟse, PB&W strives for industry-leading client returns. Michigan-based maker of small turbo- under the Digital Century Series ini- “People say that if I just make it - Whitby, ON and Plano, TX. fan engines can expect competition. tiative. With the latest generation of so it doesn’t last as long, it’s going to Rolls-Royce LibertyWorks an- manned aircraft bristling with ex- be cheaper,” Thomson says. “As with - Developer of autonomous nounced in August the completion of pensive capabilities—albeit in small many things, but especially with en- unmanned underwater vehicles. rig tests on a small engine designed for quantities—the Air Force is seeking gines, that’s not exactly true.” the “expendable and attritable market to rebuild mass and strike capacity in For example, a common tempera- - ISR, mine countermeasures and for the Department of Defense,” the the combat fleet with hundreds, if not ture at the first stator outlet position research applicaƟons. www.pbandw.com company said. Rolls-Royce’s release thousands, of attritable UAS priced of a combustor—one of the hottest - Pocasset, MA. followed an announcement by Pratt & between $2 million and $20 million. parts of an engine—is above 1,000C Whitney in 2019 that launched devel- A rule of thumb in the aircraft in- (1,832F). Only a few costly materials opment of the FJ700 family of small tur- dustry sets engine prices at around can survive at such a temperature for bofans for the same application. Finally, 15% of the overall cost of the aircraft. any length of time.

48 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 4 DEFENSE HUNTER- KILLER II > NORTHROP GRUMMAN UNVEILS ITS VISION FOR REPLACING MQ-9 > SG-2 IS PART OF A NEW FAMILY OF ADVANCED UAS

Steve Trimble Washington very age presents a new military challenge—and new ideas to solve it. A decade ago, the urgent problem facing the U.S. Defense Department was the scourge of Eimprovised explosive devices (IED) planted beneath the uncontested skies of Afghanistan and Iraq. Today, it is how to track the hun- With a fuselage based on the fa- dreds, if not thousands, of mobile miliar cranked-kite platform of missile launchers that rove freely deep Northrop’s X-47B, the SG-2 features behind the well-defended borders and an inboard wing section extended by coastlines of China and Russia. a shallower angle along the trailing To counter the IED problem, the edge and an outboard wing section defense industry proposed installing with a narrower chord. As proposed, highly sophisticated, staring sensors the 20,000-lb. aircraft with 1,000-nm onboard a set of relatively defense- range is less than half the maximum less, ultra-long-endurance aircraft takeoff weight and one-third the range such as hybrid airships and hydrogen- of the carrier-based X-47B, says Scott powered unmanned aircraft systems Winship, Northrop vice president for (UAS). The concept produced a bevy advanced programs. of development programs such as the But the true breakthrough offered by Blue Devil II, Long-Endurance Multi- MQ-Next proposals such as the SG-2 is Intelligence Vehicle and Orion UAS, not based on any dramatic new reve- but none came to fruition. lation in aircraft or jet engine design. Northrop Grumman’s operations In Northrop’s view, the replacement planners are still in early discussions for the MQ-9 could be a meshed swarm with the Air Force about the proper of dozens of hunter-killer UAS stealthy response to the mobile missile launch- enough to penetrate into defended air- er threat, which, unlike the very real space and collectively find, track and, roadside IEDs of the last decade, re- if necessary, destroy a wide range of mains theoretical. targets, including radar sites and mo- As the Air Force starts to look for bile missile launchers. Alternatively, an MQ-9 replacement in 2030 now the aircraft’s onboard jammers could being called “MQ-Next,” Northrop is clear a path through a gauntlet of en- ready to lift the veil on a potential op- emy sensors, allowing the more valu- tion: the SG-2 UAS. able crews of fighters and bombers to The SG-2, which Northrop detailed reach targets farther downrange. exclusively to Aviation Week, forms That vision seeks to capitalize on the one of a new family of UAS that the promised power of a new generation company submitted in July to the of autonomous aircraft that no longer intelligence, surveillance and recon- require the direct control of a human naissance and special operations di- operator. These UAS would be able to rectorate of the Air Force Life-Cycle dwell for long periods inside defended Management Center. airspace, using automated functions to NORTHROP GRUMMAN

50 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE

sense, understand and react to changes in the environment by themselves. The heart of the capability is not the SG-2 or other members of the UAS HUNTER- family, but Northrop’s Distributed Au- tonomy/Responsive Control (DA/RC) system. Northrop officially describes DA/RC as a joint all-domain command-and-control (JADC2) proto- KILLER II type, but Winship calls it a “battle manager on steroids.” > NORTHROP GRUMMAN UNVEILS ITS VISION To an outsider, observing the DA/RC FOR REPLACING MQ-9 system in action seems like watching a video game. A giant video screen SG-2 IS PART OF A NEW FAMILY OF ADVANCED UAS set up in a Northrop facility shows a > battle in process, with about a dozen X-47B-shaped icons in blue arrayed Steve Trimble Washington against an enemy’s air defense systems on the ground in red. very age presents a new military challenge—and new To the untrained eye, the X-47B ideas to solve it. A decade ago, the urgent problem fac- icons look like they are following a script. In virtual reality, they are acting ing the U.S. Defense Department was the scourge of out a sophisticated simulation. As each improvised explosive devices (IED) planted beneath the of the icons move, they are performing E a role as part of a mission. The DA/RC uncontested skies of Afghanistan and Iraq. software manages the X-47B assets in Today, it is how to track the hun- With a fuselage based on the fa- the simulation in the same way as a dreds, if not thousands, of mobile miliar cranked-kite platform of human battle manager on a Northrop missile launchers that rove freely deep Northrop’s X-47B, the SG-2 features E-8C Joint Stars, except much of the behind the well-defended borders and an inboard wing section extended by process moves at machine speed. A coastlines of China and Russia. a shallower angle along the trailing human staff monitors the operation, To counter the IED problem, the edge and an outboard wing section but the unmanned systems do not de- defense industry proposed installing with a narrower chord. As proposed, pend on continuous communication highly sophisticated, staring sensors the 20,000-lb. aircraft with 1,000-nm with a human controller. onboard a set of relatively defense- range is less than half the maximum Northrop began developing the soft- less, ultra-long-endurance aircraft takeoff weight and one-third the range ware platform that evolved into DA/RC such as hybrid airships and hydrogen- of the carrier-based X-47B, says Scott about 15 years ago. As the company powered unmanned aircraft systems Winship, Northrop vice president for was developing the X-47B for what (UAS). The concept produced a bevy advanced programs. was then the Navy’s Unmanned Com- of development programs such as the But the true breakthrough offered by bat Air Systems (UCAS) program, the Blue Devil II, Long-Endurance Multi- MQ-Next proposals such as the SG-2 is idea was to control five carrier-based Intelligence Vehicle and Orion UAS, not based on any dramatic new reve- aircraft in flight without dedicating a but none came to fruition. lation in aircraft or jet engine design. human staff to each, Winship says. The Northrop Grumman’s operations In Northrop’s view, the replacement DA/RC software is now capable of run- planners are still in early discussions for the MQ-9 could be a meshed swarm ning a simulation with about 100 con- with the Air Force about the proper of dozens of hunter-killer UAS stealthy structed elements serving as aircraft. response to the mobile missile launch- enough to penetrate into defended air- The operational breakthrough posed er threat, which, unlike the very real space and collectively find, track and, by the DA/RC is not a new inspiration roadside IEDs of the last decade, re- if necessary, destroy a wide range of in aircraft design. Instead, it is a suite of mains theoretical. targets, including radar sites and mo- computer hardware and software tools As the Air Force starts to look for bile missile launchers. Alternatively, that can manage a complex air battle an MQ-9 replacement in 2030 now the aircraft’s onboard jammers could at a speed far beyond human abilities. being called “MQ-Next,” Northrop is clear a path through a gauntlet of en- Northrop portrays the system as a ready to lift the veil on a potential op- emy sensors, allowing the more valu- prototype of the Air Force’s vision for tion: the SG-2 UAS. able crews of fighters and bombers to JADC2, but the company’s operations The SG-2, which Northrop detailed reach targets farther downrange. analysis, as informed by the DA/RC, exclusively to Aviation Week, forms That vision seeks to capitalize on the suggests other elements of the mili- one of a new family of UAS that the promised power of a new generation tary’s modernization agenda—such as company submitted in July to the of autonomous aircraft that no longer Northrop’s newly unveiled SG-2 the low-cost attritable aircraft and loyal intelligence, surveillance and recon- require the direct control of a human concept relies on an automated wingman concepts—may not work. naissance and special operations di- operator. These UAS would be able to command-and-control system to The concept for the SG-2 aircraft rectorate of the Air Force Life-Cycle dwell for long periods inside defended orchestrate the movement of a UAS swarm. offers a case in point. The airframe Management Center. airspace, using automated functions to design is informed more by Northrop’s NORTHROP GRUMMAN

50 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 51 DEFENSE

experience with the X-47A Pegasus, gence] or some of the other things they to a more expensive overall fleet than Winship says, rather than the larger, want to carry—you start to push the an aircraft designed with traditional more sophisticated X-47B. For both the price. Then you think it’s more valu- landing gear. X-47A and SG-2, Northrop leveraged able, and you want to bring it home.” “If you could turn the vehicle in 4 hr. the low-cost manufacturing expertise A war against Russia or China could and put it back in the fight, you could of its Scaled Composites subsidiary. result in a lengthy campaign. An air- buy fewer vehicles and have enough to “When you talk with Northrop’s craft designed to be attritable could, pay for the higher-end landing gear and [Aeronautics Systems division] about by definition, sustain significant losses. maintenance equipment to turn the building something cheap, we default to Even if the costs remain a fraction of vehicle faster,” Winship says. “Turning the wrong answer,” Winship says. “So more survivable—and sophisticated— it around in 12 hr., you have to buy more we work really exclusively with Scaled manned fighters and bombers, the vehicles to maintain orbits.” Composites to try and understand losses in the attritable fleet may not be Another concept the Air Force how we can do these things cheaper sustainable, according to Northrop’s is pursuing is the “loyal wingman,” but have the same smarts onboard. operations analysis. which allows a fighter pilot to con- Northrop would bring the smarts, and “On a campaign that takes days, trol one or multiple low-cost, attrita- [Scaled Composites] would bring the weeks, months, you can’t just be drop- ble UAS. The human pilot could use cheap manufacturing.” ping these things into the sea all the the potentially reusable aircraft as Despite Scaled Composites’ partici- time,” Winship says. “They just get advanced scouts or, if the situation pation, Northrop is struggling to fit an really expensive.” demanded it, cruise missiles. But operational SG-2 into the Air Force’s no- Another aspect of the Air Force’s Northrop’s analysis suggests the loyal tional range of $2-20 million for an “at- attritable aircraft concept is runway wingman concept is flawed. tritable” aircraft system, Winship says. independence. The Kratos XQ-48 “One of the things that a UAV hates “We tried to work very hard to get Valkyrie, which was funded by the is the burden of having a manned the air vehicle with a baseline load-out Low-Cost Attritable Aircraft Tech- fighter with it, which doesn’t have any below $20 million,” Winship says. “The nology program, was designed to take persistence [or] any endurance,” Win- difficulty is when you start to load it up off and land without using runways. ship says. “Those are the two things with different kinds of sensors—[sig- Northrop’s operations analysis has that a UAV does well. Why would you nals intelligence] or [electronic intelli- concluded that such a concept leads burden it with being with a fighter?”c

leet iscovery Military

iscover ortunity it naralleled racing o loal Military leets

Aviation Week Network’s Fleet Discovery Military Edition simplifi es tracking global military aircraft and engines — piloted and unpiloted, fi xed wing and rotary — so you can discover new opportunities to grow your business. ● Featuring over 70,000 aircraft and 110,000 engines in service with more than 400 military operators. ● Searchable and ﬁ lterable by aircraft, engine, category, mission, lift type, weight class and more. See for yourself how Fleet Discovery Military can help you track aircraft and engines so you never miss a business opportunity.

o learn ore go to aviationeecoMilitary Or call: Anne McMahon +1 646 291 6353 | Thom Clayton +44 (0) 20 7017 6106

52 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE LOCKHEED MARTIN experience with the X-47A Pegasus, gence] or some of the other things they to a more expensive overall fleet than Winship says, rather than the larger, want to carry—you start to push the an aircraft designed with traditional more sophisticated X-47B. For both the price. Then you think it’s more valu- landing gear. X-47A and SG-2, Northrop leveraged able, and you want to bring it home.” “If you could turn the vehicle in 4 hr. the low-cost manufacturing expertise A war against Russia or China could and put it back in the fight, you could of its Scaled Composites subsidiary. result in a lengthy campaign. An air- buy fewer vehicles and have enough to “When you talk with Northrop’s craft designed to be attritable could, pay for the higher-end landing gear and [Aeronautics Systems division] about by definition, sustain significant losses. maintenance equipment to turn the building something cheap, we default to Even if the costs remain a fraction of vehicle faster,” Winship says. “Turning the wrong answer,” Winship says. “So more survivable—and sophisticated— it around in 12 hr., you have to buy more we work really exclusively with Scaled manned fighters and bombers, the vehicles to maintain orbits.” Composites to try and understand losses in the attritable fleet may not be Another concept the Air Force how we can do these things cheaper sustainable, according to Northrop’s is pursuing is the “loyal wingman,” but have the same smarts onboard. operations analysis. which allows a fighter pilot to con- Northrop would bring the smarts, and “On a campaign that takes days, trol one or multiple low-cost, attrita- [Scaled Composites] would bring the weeks, months, you can’t just be drop- ble UAS. The human pilot could use cheap manufacturing.” ping these things into the sea all the the potentially reusable aircraft as Lockheed Martin Despite Scaled Composites’ partici- time,” Winship says. “They just get advanced scouts or, if the situation pation, Northrop is struggling to fit an really expensive.” demanded it, cruise missiles. But Unveils Details of MQ-9 operational SG-2 into the Air Force’s no- Another aspect of the Air Force’s Northrop’s analysis suggests the loyal tional range of $2-20 million for an “at- attritable aircraft concept is runway wingman concept is flawed. Replacement Offer tritable” aircraft system, Winship says. independence. The Kratos XQ-48 “One of the things that a UAV hates “We tried to work very hard to get Valkyrie, which was funded by the is the burden of having a manned > THE U.S. AIR FORCE WANTS TO REPLACE THE MQ-9 BY 2030 the air vehicle with a baseline load-out Low-Cost Attritable Aircraft Tech- fighter with it, which doesn’t have any below $20 million,” Winship says. “The nology program, was designed to take persistence [or] any endurance,” Win- > OFFERING COMBINES ELEMENTS OF THE RQ-170 AND difficulty is when you start to load it up off and land without using runways. ship says. “Those are the two things LOCKHEED’S SEA GHOST CONCEPT with different kinds of sensors—[sig- Northrop’s operations analysis has that a UAV does well. Why would you nals intelligence] or [electronic intelli- concluded that such a concept leads burden it with being with a fighter?”c Steve Trimble Washington and Lockheed’s original Sea Ghost The company has released a ren- concept, which was tailored for a dering of its Next-Generation UAS ockheed Martin Skunk Works carrier-based surveillance and strike concept, in flight with an F-35. has revealed new details of the UAS. The Navy’s requirement change Lcompany’s vision for a U.S. Air to a carrier-based, unmanned tanker Force MQ-9 fleet replacement on the prompted Lockheed to submit a new intent for the Next-Generation UAS is eve of 2020’s Virtual Air, Space & design for the MQ-25 contract, with an to develop a smart, stealthy unmanned Cyber Conference. aircraft featuring a rounded inlet and ISR system to enhance the capability The company responded to a re - almost triangular planform. of existing assets across all domains, quest for information released by The new NGUAS concept reveals a while helping to protect our warfight- leet iscovery Military the Air Force in June for an MQ-9 planform that falls between the sharp- ers from direct exposure to threats.” replacement in 2030 with a family of er, sawtooth angles of the trailing edge The Air Force has defined a chal- unmanned aircraft systems (UAS), for the Sea Ghost and the softer swept lenging requirement for the still- including both advanced and inex- trailing edge of Lockheed’s MQ-25 bid. nascent MQ-9 replacement program. pensive platforms. The concept builds on Lockheed’s As the service prepares for a future iscover ortunity it naralleled “Our operational analysis shows decades of experience in UAS design, conflict with a great power: The so- racing o loal Military leets that the future UAS force structure a Skunk Works spokeswoman says. called MQ-Next program seeks to can be optimized with a mixture of “While the MQ-25 and Next-Gener- introduce a capability that can per- high-end systems and low-end (low- ation UAS share some of this common sist and be effective within a defend- Aviation Week Network’s Fleet Discovery Military Edition simplifi es cost) expendable systems,” Lockheed heritage, including visual similarities, ed airspace, yet remain affordable tracking global military aircraft and engines — piloted and unpiloted, fi xed wing says in a statement to Aviation Week. they are in fact two very different ve- enough to meet the Air Force’s defi- and rotary — so you can discover new opportunities to grow your business. An illustration of the high-end hicles designed for two very different nition of “attritable.” One Air Force ● Featuring over 70,000 aircraft and 110,000 engines in service with Next-Generation UAS (NGUAS) missions,” the spokeswoman adds. briefing to industry in May defined a more than 400 military operators. concept released to Aviation Week The NGUAS (pictured in flight with price range for an attritable aircraft by Skunk Works displays yet anoth- an F-35A) reveals a sophisticated- as falling between $2-20 million. ● aircraft, engine, category, mission, lift type, Searchable and ﬁ lterable by er evolution in Lockheed’s stable of looking aircraft as a replacement for If the NGUAS falls on the high-end weight class and more. stealthy, flying-wing aircraft. Lock- the turboprop-powered, medium- of that spectrum, Lockheed’s pro - See for yourself how Fleet Discovery Military can help you track aircraft and heed also showed a similar image of altitude MQ-9 fleet. posal for the low-end aircraft avoids engines so you never miss a business opportunity. the NGUAS concept in August to me- “The Next-Generation UAS in- the Air Force’s “attritable” term. dia in Poland, which was aimed at the cludes specific features for survivabil- Instead, Skunk Works describes the Polish Ministry of National Defense’s ity, enhanced mission radius, and ad- low-end member of the UAS family o learn ore go to aviationeecoMilitary Harpy Claw program. vanced ISR [intelligence, surveillance as simply “expendable.” In the same Or call: Anne McMahon +1 646 291 6353 | Thom Clayton +44 (0) 20 7017 6106 The frontal aspect rendering of and reconnaissance] capabilities that briefing to industry in May, the Air the NGUAS recalls the isosceles are not part of the MQ-25 program,” Force defined expendable as cheaper trapezoid inlet style of the RQ-170 Lockheed’s spokeswoman says. “Our than $2 million per unit. c

52 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 53 DEFENSE SOFT POWER

> B-21 AND F-16 LABS INTEGRATE SOFTWARE CONTAINER

> OPEN ARCHITECTURE PROCESSORS Two F-22s assigned to the Edwards COMING FOR F-22 AND F-15EX AFB test eet are among the rst to receive new processors that are > USAF OFFICIAL SEES OPPORTUNITY compliant with the Open Mission TO DISRUPT DEFENSE INDUSTRY Systems architecture.

CHAD ELLALOCKHEED MARTIN Steve Trimble Washington

ecrecy surrounds nearly every detail of the U.S. Air The B-21, according to Walden, Force’s new stealth bomber. Analysts seeking an esti- is participating in a dramatic shift in software development within the mate of the Northrop Grumman B-21’s takeo weight military and the defense industry. It are forced to scrutinize the two released renderings for began a few years ago with a move to S an agile software release schedule, possible clues such as the size and shape of the landing gear. Oth- with small capability increments re- er fundamental features—like the number and size of the engines, leased every few months instead of the capacity of the weapons bay and even the aircraft’s unrefu- every few years. Over the next sever- eled combat radius—remain shrouded in classifi ed mystery. al years, multiple aircraft, including the B-21, Lockheed Martin F-22 and A consistent and surprising excep- broadly as progressing on schedule, F-35 and Boeing F-15EX, will be fi elded tion to the Air Force’s tight-lipped the secretive program’s managers with architecture compliant with open discretion, however, comes with the slip in specifi c details about the pace mission systems (OMS). B-21’s software. of software updates to the bomber’s Once the agile software method Even as the results of ground-based systems integration laboratories. and OMS-compliant systems are in testing for the engines, structural ma- “We’re not doing what was termed place, Air Force o cials are prepar- terials and sensors remain a closely a normal OFP [operational fl ight pro- ing for even more profound changes. guarded secret, Air Force leaders feel gram] drop every year or two,” says As software updates rather than new free to boast about the lines of soft- Randall Walden, director of the Air hardware begin to drive new combat ware code embedded in the B-21’s com- Force Rapid Capabilities O ce (RCO). capabilities, a powerful set of tools puters and running as applications on “We’re seeing it, like, every month or already used by commercial industry an open architecture processing sys- two. So that level of compression of potentially becomes available to com- tem. While the rest of the aircraft’s time gets after those typical errors bat systems. The tools may allow de- development systems are described that take a long time to fi x.” velopers to untangle the software code

5 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE NORTHROP GRUMMAN CONCEPT

for a specific application from a military jet’s operational flight program (OFP), which would markedly reduce the cost and schedule for introducing SOFT new, software-driven capabilities on the combat fleet. The implications for the defense industrial base could be dramatic. If the technology survives the techni- POWER cal, regulatory and cultural challenges that still lie ahead, some Air Force technical leaders, including Chief Software Officer Nicolas Chaillan, The avionics on the future Northrop Grumman will seek to disrupt a pillar of the defense industry’s business model, with B-21 have validated the ability to run software the government taking ownership containers in ground testing. of the valuable intellectual property (IP) embedded in the source code water fall method, according to a 2018 process, which broke up the Tactical OFP. Instead of controlling the life report by the Defense Department In- Mandates upgrade program into a cycle of a franchise weapon system, spector General. series of smaller capability insertions the industry’s revenues would come The same waterfall method also delivered more rapidly. from developing the most valuable has sometimes partly dictated the Though in production for nearly software-driven applications, which pace of software development for new a half-century, Boeing’s F-15EX also would generate licensing fees based aircraft. Prat Kumar, Boeing’s F-15 is making a similar transition. The > B-21 AND F-16 LABS INTEGRATE on the government’s usage. program manager, says the typical Air Force plans to order a minimum SOFTWARE CONTAINER The B-21 program guards many program would begin with Air Force of 144 F-15EX aircraft, and the first secrets, but not its role in the shift to development requirements. At some lot of eight aircraft will be delivered a new software development model. point, a request for proposals would with Block 9.1X software for the OFP. OPEN ARCHITECTURE PROCESSORS Two F-22s assigned to the Edwards > As Northrop continues assembling the be released. Months later, a company Starting with Lot 2 aircraft deliveries COMING FOR F-22 AND F-15EX AFB test eet are among the rst first flight-test aircraft in Palmdale, would be awarded a contract, launch- in 2023, the Air Force has contracted to receive new processors that are California, the systems integration ing the software development process. Boeing to deliver Block 9.2 software, > USAF OFFICIAL SEES OPPORTUNITY compliant with the Open Mission laboratories for the B-21 are receiv- A final bundle of software would finally which will set a new fleet-wide base- TO DISRUPT DEFENSE INDUSTRY Systems architecture. ing new containerized applications be released to a testing organization, line, Kumar says. That means new orchestrated by a Google-derived tool which would reveal deficiencies that F-15EX and older models, including called Kubernetes. need to be fixed. Half a decade could the F-15C and F-15E, will use a com- CHAD ELLALOCKHEED MARTIN “Kubernetes allows us to reduce pass between the requirements being mon software suite. Steve Trimble Washington the regression time because not all of set and the capability being delivered. At the same time, Boeing is working the software is in this spaghetti-code “It could be a 3-5-year time frame, on a new Phantom Works-developed ecrecy surrounds nearly every detail of the U.S. Air The B-21, according to Walden, makeup,” Walden says. “It’s broken up broadly speaking,” Kumar says. mission systems processor for the Force’s new stealth bomber. Analysts seeking an esti- is participating in a dramatic shift into [discrete applications] and allows The commercial industry largely F-15EX. The new computer hardware in software development within the us to do a much better job of . . . getting moved toward agile software develop- is compliant with the Air Force’s OMS mate of the Northrop Grumman B-21’s takeo weight military and the defense industry. It [the applications] on the airplane.” ment methods over a decade ago, and architecture. As the processor enters are forced to scrutinize the two released renderings for began a few years ago with a move to Software development in U.S. de- the defense industry is now starting service beginning in 2023 on Lot 2 jets, S an agile software release schedule, fense programs has been a problem to come along. In an agile process, the the possibilities for new upgrades will possible clues such as the size and shape of the landing gear. Oth- with small capability increments re- for decades. goal is to deliver new capabilities in change. Applications developed by er fundamental features—like the number and size of the engines, leased every few months instead of In modernization programs, the smaller increments, which can then vendors outside Boeing’s proprietary the capacity of the weapons bay and even the aircraft’s unrefu- every few years. Over the next sever- pace of upgrading existing aircraft be tested at the integration level much software standards will have an easier eled combat radius—remain shrouded in classifi ed mystery. al years, multiple aircraft, including such as the F-22 has been partly driv- sooner. The agile process does not path to integration on the F-15EX. The the B-21, Lockheed Martin F-22 and en by a software development method eliminate software bugs, but in theory OFP will continue to be updated in A consistent and surprising excep- broadly as progressing on schedule, F-35 and Boeing F-15EX, will be fi elded known as “waterfall.” Software devel- the method simplifies the resolution. roughly yearly intervals, Kumar says. tion to the Air Force’s tight-lipped the secretive program’s managers with architecture compliant with open opers divided the code into separate In many cases, some form of agile The OMS architecture also is discretion, however, comes with the slip in specifi c details about the pace mission systems (OMS). applications, with each developed and development method is already the spreading to Lockheed’s stealth jets. B-21’s software. of software updates to the bomber’s Once the agile software method tested separately. At the end of a usu- norm for the Air Force’s most ad- A new, OMS-compliant processor has Even as the results of ground-based systems integration laboratories. and OMS-compliant systems are in ally two-year development cycle, the vanced combat aircraft. The F-35 been installed on the first five F-22s for testing for the engines, structural ma- “We’re not doing what was termed place, Air Force o cials are prepar- individual software modules would be adopted the Continuous Capability development testing at Edwards AFB, terials and sensors remain a closely a normal OFP [operational fl ight pro- ing for even more profound changes. integrated and tested together for the Development and Delivery process California, and Nellis AFB, Nevada, guarded secret, Air Force leaders feel gram] drop every year or two,” says As software updates rather than new first time as a complete system. for Block 4 modernization, although says O.J. Sanchez, Lockheed’s vice free to boast about the lines of soft- Randall Walden, director of the Air hardware begin to drive new combat Inevitably, the testers would find the Government Accountability Office president for F-22 programs. ware code embedded in the B-21’s com- Force Rapid Capabilities O ce (RCO). capabilities, a powerful set of tools numerous deficiencies, which could recently noted that the method fell “We’ll start to see that retrofitted in puters and running as applications on “We’re seeing it, like, every month or already used by commercial industry take months or even years to re - short of expectations during the first the fleet after it’s approved for release an open architecture processing sys- two. So that level of compression of potentially becomes available to com- solve. The Increment 3.2A upgrade full year of production in 2019. The next fall,” Sanchez says. tem. While the rest of the aircraft’s time gets after those typical errors bat systems. The tools may allow de- for the F-22 OFP suite, for example, F-22 program, meanwhile, has adopt- Beyond agile development and development systems are described that take a long time to fi x.” velopers to untangle the software code fell a year behind schedule under the ed the Raptor Agile Capability Release OMS-compliant architectures, the

5 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 55 DEFENSE

U.S. Air Force Chief Software Officer Nicolas Chaillan (center, in purple tie) in front of an F-16 SIL with the Hill AFB software team during a Kubernetes demo. going to be software-defined. It’s going to be artificial intelligence software that’s going to be able to make decisions before you even have the time to touch the button.” If flightworthy software containers

CAPT. JUSTIN MARSH/U.S. AIR FORCE CAPT. become reality, Chaillan foresees profound changes for the defense indus- Air Force’s next push will be to con- regression testing to verify that the try. Upon entering U.S. government tainerize new software capabilities. To software would not interfere with service after a successful career as a software developers, the idea of using other systems on the jet. technology entrepreneur in France, virtual containers to deliver new ap- As the RCO’s Walden confirms, Chaillan found the military’s relation- plications is nothing new. Containers the Air Force later performed the ship with defense contractors over the are commonly used for the software same demonstration on the B-21, rights to software source code back- that runs applications for consumers although further details have not ward compared to the commercial in- and even information technology ser- been released. dustry. The government pays defense vices in the defense industry. “People were always saying: ‘Well, companies to develop the source code A container allows a computer you know we can do all this stuff on for an aircraft OFP, but industry keeps processor to run a new application business systems, but, we cannot do the IP rights to the code. Chaillan without entangling the source code of it on weapon systems. And we knew wants to reverse that approach. other systems on the jet. A cottage in- [that] was wrong and was completely “We paid for the software and yet dustry of containerizing tools, such as possible,” Chaillan says. “We wanted we didn’t own the IP. That will nev- Docker and OpenShift, allows devel- to demonstrate that in 45 days, so we er happen on the commercial side,” opers to create the new applications. picked the F-16 to show it could be Chaillan says. “On the commercial Depending on the number and com- done on legacy hardware, and it’s not side, if you go to a company, and you plexity of containers involved, the de- required to replace any component.” say, ‘I’m going to hire you to build velopers can use Google’s Kubernetes Following the proof-of-concept whatever capability, and I’m going automated orchestration tool. demonstrations on the F-16 and B-21 to pay 100% of the cost of developing For now, containers do not yet exist SILs, the Air Force is seeking to ob- it,’ well, guess what, you better own on flight-certified applications for any tain flight certification for container- the IP.” aircraft—much less the Air Force’s ized software updates, allowing the Defense companies could still make most advanced combat jets. But that mission systems for jets to be updated money, but the business model would could begin to change. wirelessly during flight. Aircraft cer- change. Instead of basing a business On Nov. 7, 2019, Chaillan and Will tification standards for software now case on owning rights to the OFP Roper, the Air Force’s assistant sec- require extensive validation and veri- source code, defense companies could retary for acquisition, technology fication for every line of software code develop new, containerized software and logistics, met at Hill AFB, Utah, before they can be installed on a jet on applications, Chaillan says. Each ap- to attend a major milestone: For the the ground, so the new approach rep- plication could be licensed by the com- first time, an internal Air Force soft- resents a significant change. The Air pany to a military, government or even ware factory inserted a new contain- Force is now seeking to approve the a commercial customer, with fees paid erized application into flightworthy new certification policy and achieve for how often the application is used. hardware. In this case, the hardware safety-of-flight certification, Chaillan “It’s a recurring revenue model,” belonged to the F-16 systems integra- says, but he cannot offer a timeline for Chaillan says. “You can sell the same tion laboratory (SIL), a ground-based completing the process. piece of software as a monthly fee or testing rig. Chaillan considers containerization a consumption-based fee.” The Air Force integrated new critical to the future of combat air- As the OMS architecture and soft- map and sensor applications into craft technology. If future fighter and ware containers replace proprietary the display of the F-16 SIL purely as bomber pilots want to stay relevant, OFP source code on military aircraft, a proof-of-concept demonstration, they cannot wait for software devel- the new model also could lower bar- Chaillan tells Aviation Week. Roper opers to complete the same level of riers to entry for traditional tech- and Chaillan had challenged Hill’s regression and security testing used nology companies to develop new software factory to develop the code, today for new updates, he says. applications for the military. Chaillan integrate Kubernetes and run the “I don’t think we have a choice,” acknowledges the transition is likely application on the F-16 SIL’s existing Chaillan says. “I think if we don’t do to take several years. computers within 45 days. Using a it, China and Russia are going to be “It’s not going to happen in a year; traditional, noncontainerized ap- 20 years ahead. The last 30 years of it’s going to happen in 10 years,” proach, the same upgrade could re- innovation was driven by hardware. Chaillan says. “If we don’t do it, we’re quire additional weeks or months of The next 50 [years of innovation] are going to get behind.” c

56 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE

U.S. Air Force Chief Software Officer Nicolas Chaillan (center, in purple Reforging of USAF Pilot Training As the bidding deadline passed tie) in front of an F-16 SIL with the on Aug. 17, however, ACC changed Hits New Complications course again. The invitation to pro - Hill AFB software team during a pose for the lease deal was canceled Kubernetes demo. AIR FORCE CANCELS SOLICITATION FOR LEASING DEAL for unknown reasons. Instead, ACC is going to be software-defined. It’s going > continuing to accept proposals under to be artificial intelligence software > QUESADA AVIATION EMERGES TO LEAD T-50 BID a less formal process called a Com- that’s going to be able to make deci- mercial Solutions Opening (CSO). sions before you even have the time Steve Trimble Washington The CSO allows ACC to accept pro- to touch the button.” posals for providing advanced jet If flightworthy software containers n June 2019, U.S. Air Force Gen. “One option might be to take those trainers through means other than a

CAPT. JUSTIN MARSH/U.S. AIR FORCE CAPT. become reality, Chaillan foresees pro- James Holmes strapped into an T-7s and put a mix of them at [train- leasing arrangement. found changes for the defense indus- IIsraeli Air Force M-346 Lavi ad- ing] bases to teach people how to fly Meanwhile, a new company called Air Force’s next push will be to con- regression testing to verify that the try. Upon entering U.S. government vanced jet trainer and flew off to attack them and do advanced bomber train- Quesada Aviation Holdings has emerged tainerize new software capabilities. To software would not interfere with service after a successful career as a a ship in the Mediterranean Sea. ing and then put some portion of them to submit a proposal with the KAI/ software developers, the idea of using other systems on the jet. technology entrepreneur in France, “We fought our way through air out at the fighter wings,” Holmes says. Lockheed T-50, replacing Hillwood. virtual containers to deliver new ap- As the RCO’s Walden confirms, Chaillan found the military’s relation- threats and ground threats; we did a “One option might be to do that train- “Quesada is fully prepared to sup- plications is nothing new. Containers the Air Force later performed the ship with defense contractors over the simulated attack on a target; we came ing at training bases.” port the [Air Force] and Air Combat

are commonly used for the software same demonstration on the B-21, rights to software source code back- off and fought through air threats ISRAEL DEFENSE FORCES that runs applications for consumers although further details have not ward compared to the commercial in- and then [returned to base],” recalls and even information technology ser- been released. dustry. The government pays defense Holmes, who retired last month as head vices in the defense industry. “People were always saying: ‘Well, companies to develop the source code of Air Combat Command (ACC). A container allows a computer you know we can do all this stuff on for an aircraft OFP, but industry keeps Of course, the attack was simulated: processor to run a new application business systems, but, we cannot do the IP rights to the code. Chaillan The threats and target appeared as without entangling the source code of it on weapon systems. And we knew wants to reverse that approach. constructed elements on the sensor other systems on the jet. A cottage in- [that] was wrong and was completely “We paid for the software and yet displays inside the cockpit. The pur- dustry of containerizing tools, such as possible,” Chaillan says. “We wanted we didn’t own the IP. That will nev- pose of the exercise was not to defend Docker and OpenShift, allows devel- to demonstrate that in 45 days, so we er happen on the commercial side,” the Israeli coastline but instead to opers to create the new applications. picked the F-16 to show it could be Chaillan says. “On the commercial show Holmes a new way of training Depending on the number and com- done on legacy hardware, and it’s not side, if you go to a company, and you pilots as the Boeing T-7A enters ser- plexity of containers involved, the de- required to replace any component.” say, ‘I’m going to hire you to build vice within three years. velopers can use Google’s Kubernetes Following the proof-of-concept whatever capability, and I’m going The U.S. Air Force pilot training automated orchestration tool. demonstrations on the F-16 and B-21 to pay 100% of the cost of developing curriculum is almost as dated as the For now, containers do not yet exist SILs, the Air Force is seeking to ob- it,’ well, guess what, you better own 60-year-old Northrop T-38Cs the on flight-certified applications for any tain flight certification for container- the IP.” T-7As will replace. New fighter and aircraft—much less the Air Force’s ized software updates, allowing the Defense companies could still make bomber pilots spend two years mas- most advanced combat jets. But that mission systems for jets to be updated money, but the business model would tering basic skills at bases focused could begin to change. wirelessly during flight. Aircraft cer- change. Instead of basing a business solely on training new pilots; then A June 2019 ride in an Israeli Air Force M-346 trainer persuaded Gen. James On Nov. 7, 2019, Chaillan and Will tification standards for software now case on owning rights to the OFP they move on to fighter training units Holmes to reconsider the U.S. Air Force’s pilot training system before the source code, defense companies could Roper, the Air Force’s assistant sec- require extensive validation and veri- (FTU) at operational bases. When Boeing T-7A enters the fleet. retary for acquisition, technology fication for every line of software code develop new, containerized software Holmes entered the Air Force in 1982, and logistics, met at Hill AFB, Utah, before they can be installed on a jet on applications, Chaillan says. Each ap- FTU pilots still flew about 250 hr. each To determine the best approach, Command,” says Seth Downing, the to attend a major milestone: For the the ground, so the new approach rep- plication could be licensed by the com- year. With flight-hour costs for F-15Es, Holmes’ ACC launched Project Re- CEO. “We are pleased to see the CSO first time, an internal Air Force soft- resents a significant change. The Air pany to a military, government or even F-22s and F-35As now over $25,000 forge. The original idea outlined in open and look forward to working ware factory inserted a new contain- Force is now seeking to approve the a commercial customer, with fees paid per hour, FTU pilots today on aver- May 2019 called for leasing eight Korea alongside the [Air Force] and ACC in erized application into flightworthy new certification policy and achieve for how often the application is used. age log about 150 hr. annually, contrib- Aerospace Industries (KAI)/Lockheed structuring a mutually beneficial and hardware. In this case, the hardware safety-of-flight certification, Chaillan “It’s a recurring revenue model,” uting to a four-digit backlog of pilots Martin T-50 jets from Hillwood Avia- commercially viable alternative.” belonged to the F-16 systems integra- says, but he cannot offer a timeline for Chaillan says. “You can sell the same certified for combat. tion for five years. ACC hoped to use MSS also remains active in the Re- tion laboratory (SIL), a ground-based completing the process. piece of software as a monthly fee or But Holmes’ experience with the the jets to understand how embedded forge project as the Air Force shifts testing rig. Chaillan considers containerization a consumption-based fee.” Israeli Air Force has inspired a new training systems in the T-50 cockpits to the CSO process. The Air Force integrated new critical to the future of combat air- As the OMS architecture and soft- approach to changing U.S. Air Force could allow the Air Force to stream- “We began conversations with the map and sensor applications into craft technology. If future fighter and ware containers replace proprietary training. Unlike the T-38C’s limited line the pilot training system. Air Force about the Reforge train- the display of the F-16 SIL purely as bomber pilots want to stay relevant, OFP source code on military aircraft, computing power, the M-346’s em- The ACC is still pursuing Project Re- ing concept more than a year ago,” a proof-of-concept demonstration, they cannot wait for software devel- the new model also could lower bar- bedded simulation system allows pi- forge, but the acquisition process has says David Nichols, CEO of MSS. Chaillan tells Aviation Week. Roper opers to complete the same level of riers to entry for traditional tech- lots at FTUs to fly realistic combat been trickier than expected. Mission “We are continuing discussions with and Chaillan had challenged Hill’s regression and security testing used nology companies to develop new scenarios. As the T-7A enters service Systems Solutions (MSS), which has them to better understand their re- software factory to develop the code, today for new updates, he says. applications for the military. Chaillan with similar technology, the Air Force partnered with Leonardo to offer the quirements and provide innovative integrate Kubernetes and run the “I don’t think we have a choice,” acknowledges the transition is likely is considering a broad shake-up of its M-346, objected to a plan from ACC to solutions.” application on the F-16 SIL’s existing Chaillan says. “I think if we don’t do to take several years. pilot training system. The end result sole-source the lease deal to Hillwood’s The final decision on the acquisition computers within 45 days. Using a it, China and Russia are going to be “It’s not going to happen in a year; would be streamlining the curriculum T-50s. Ultimately, the Air Force path for Project Reforge will be made traditional, noncontainerized ap- 20 years ahead. The last 30 years of it’s going to happen in 10 years,” by teaching fundamental skills and agreed to open the lease deal to com- by Gen. Mark Kelly, now the head of proach, the same upgrade could re- innovation was driven by hardware. Chaillan says. “If we don’t do it, we’re shifting earlier to combat training with petition and released an “invitation to ACC, and will determine how to move quire additional weeks or months of The next 50 [years of innovation] are going to get behind.” c T-7As instead of F-35s, F-22s or F-15Es. propose” to industry in June. forward with pilot training reform. c

56 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 57 WORKFORCE

> OEMS AND Why Did Young Professionals TOP-TIER Change Jobs? COMPANIES Cited dissatisfaction STRUGGLE 17% Wanted a new A&D’S TO RETAIN challenge Offered more TALENT AMID money LAYOFFS 25% 58% > KEEPING A&D BRAIN ATTRACTIVE MAY BE EVEN HARDER WITH MASSIVE CUTS 42%

AND A SLOW Seeking leadership RECOVERY roles Source: Aviation Week Workorce Stud Michael Bruno Washington

hen Rolls-Royce on Aug. 27 unveiled A&D Attrition 2014-19 a goal to divest £2 billion ($3 billion) 5.9% of corporate assets, revealed pretax 5.4% 4.9% 5.0% Wlosses of £5.3 billion for the fi rst half 4.3% 4.3% of 2020 and announced cuts of 9,000 workers by year-end, no one was surprised. What startled many was the revelation that, among the thousands to leave Rolls was Stephen Daintith, its chief fi - nancial o cer since 2016. Daintith is punching out of the embattled aero giant to take the same job at skyrocketing 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 online supermarket Ocado. As trade journal The Grocer noted, Source: Aviation Week Workorce Stud “For Daintith, the appointment takes him from one of the worst-performing companies in the [Financial Times Stock Exchange] 100 to one of the best-performing.” A&D company. “It’s not that we can’t get good people again, Add brain drain to the list of challenges facing Western but you’d like to keep the people you’ve trained, and we do aerospace and defense (A&D) in the post-pandemic era. Ac- have some issue with people bouncing around.” cording to comments by industry managers and consultants Announcements of major workforce reductions come out during recent Aviation Week conferences and interviews, weekly. On Sept. 3, Embraer said it was laying o 900 employ- OEMs and top-tier companies are worried about losing too ees in Brazil, about 4.5% of its global workforce. In August, many talented workers as industry sheds tens of thousands of Boeing said it was expanding its own reductions to more than employees—maybe hundreds of thousands over the coming 10% of its workforce. Rough counts of planned and announced years—due to the impact of COVID-19. layo s across aerospace amount to more than 100,000 work- Also, on top of what could be one of the worst manufacturers, and many more have been furloughed as manufacturers ing contractions in A&D history and the largest workforce rightsize to 30-50% lower production needs as well as elevat- reduction since the end of the Cold War, industry leaders are ed aircraft retirements in coming years. And if Washington concerned about not being able to recover. fails to provide another bailout for airlines by Oct. 1, the U.S. “We’re having a lot of layo s, but we’re seeing a lot of people could see as many as 225,000 additional airline workers lose jump ship,” says an executive at a leading OEM. “Really good, their jobs , consultancy Oliver Wyman said in August. qualifi ed people,” he adds. “It’s not just the millennial groups; “I’ve never seen anything as bad as this,” says a worker it’s across the board—jumping ship to a safer industry.” departing from Spirit AeroSystems, which has announced a Some of the safer industries attracting aerospace talent 28% force reduction. “What is humbling is listening to work- include information technology along the West Coast, espe- ers who have been here for 35, 40 years and them also saying, cially marquee names such as Amazon, Apple and others. ‘I’ve also never seen anything like this.’” The executive says more talent is leaving commercial OEM Companies across A&D need to cut costs, and consolidat- operations, but even defense is seeing talent leakage. ing footprints and cutting workers are popular maneuvers. “Retention has always been an issue for us, especially in But humans are a more complicated asset. “The easier part Southern California,” echoes an executive at another top-tier is preserving the physical capability; the more challenging

5 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST WORKFORCE

> OEMS AND Why Did Young Professionals part is going to be the workforce,” says Scott Thompson, U.S. What is more, the short-lived hiring spree of the last TOP-TIER Change Jobs? A&D leader at PwC. “If you have a hard time retaining the half-decade could be quickly forgotten among communities workforce during the sharp downturn, those specialized skills where A&D was beginning to form pipelines of manufactur- COMPANIES Cited are not going to be available when the volumes return. ing and maintenance, repair and overhaul talent. According dissatisfaction STRUGGLE “Companies need to take a very strategic look at the criti- to the Aerospace Industries Association, the A&D industry 17% Wanted a new cal skills they need to retain and come up with strategies . . . supported 2.5 million jobs in 2018, the last full year of data. A&D’S TO RETAIN challenge to preserve that workforce over the next 3-5 years,” Thomp- That included 881,000 direct jobs and another 1.6 million in TALENT AMID Offered more son adds. That includes unavoidable demographic changes, the supply chain, which often serves multiple industries. money such as already expected retirements. But 2018 could serve as the high-water mark. Long before LAYOFFS 25% “What we have is a large change for the aircraft industry the COVID-19 pandemic and even before the Boeing 737 MAX 58% in terms of expectations with regard to hiring, retaining and was grounded last year and production halted this year, in- > KEEPING A&D training,” agrees Cliff Collier, a principal at Charles Edwards dustry was consolidating at a rapid pace. Each merger or ac- ATTRACTIVE Management Consulting, which specializes in aerospace. quisition deal brings more workforce reductions as managers BRAIN While voluntary attrition across industry was low before take out costs and divest what they deem as noncore assets. MAY BE EVEN the pandemic (see chart on facing page), A&D has struggled To be sure, the swelling available talent pool due to the HARDER WITH to attract enough desirable talent. As the Aviation Week Net- pandemic is a “temporary reprieve,” says Feeko, from past work Young Professionals Study has documented for years, sourcing difficulties. And some smaller companies are capital- MASSIVE CUTS 42% A&D companies have complained about competition for izing on the suddenly expanded pool. “We are seeing a better technologically savvy, younger candidates from Silicon Valley, quality of candidates coming through,” says Brian Neff, CEO AND A SLOW Seeking leadership roles gaming, health care services and others. One side effect has of A&D-focused additive manufacturing provider Sintavia. RECOVERY been how “old” A&D continues to look compared with other ETI Tech, which provides design, manufacturing and fin- Source: Aviation Week Workorce Stud industries; the average age of an A&D worker has hovered in ishing of parts and specialized test equipment for A&D, is Michael Bruno Washington the mid-40s for years despite the entry of post-baby boomer Generations X, Y and Z into the wider workforce. hen Rolls-Royce on Aug. 27 unveiled A&D Attrition 2014-19 “The workforce has aged,” says Ernst & Young Americas A&D’sA&D’s Most Most Attractive Attractive Factors Factors a goal to divest £2 billion ($3 billion) A&D leader Paul Feeko, compared with its Apollo heyday. 100 5.9% “That’s probably the most long-term and critical challenge of corporate assets, revealed pretax 5.4% 4.9% 5.0% the sector faces. There is already a significant shortage of losses of £5.3 billion for the fi rst half 4.3% 4.3% tech-savvy workers in core areas like engineering, but even 80 W the more digitally savvy workforce required across all cor- of 2020 and announced cuts of 9,000 workers by porate functions is [lacking]. There are so many places that 60 year-end, no one was surprised. have become more attractive environments for the younger What startled many was the revelation that, among the end of the workforce.” thousands to leave Rolls was Stephen Daintith, its chief fi - For sure, A&D had strong points compared with other 40 nancial o cer since 2016. Daintith is punching out of the industries. Higher levels of job security and self-declared embattled aero giant to take the same job at skyrocketing 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 passion among its workers were key recruiting strengths 20 online supermarket Ocado. As trade journal The Grocer noted, through the late 2010s, as well as a better-than-average work- Source: Aviation Week Workorce Stud “For Daintith, the appointment takes him from one of the life balance. But the fallout from COVID-19 is attacking the 0 worst-performing companies in the [Financial Times Stock heart of what made A&D attractive. Career Salary Job Security Tech Job Exchange] 100 to one of the best-performing.” A&D company. “It’s not that we can’t get good people again, “One of the attractive reasons that young people would Advancement Challenge Availability Add brain drain to the list of challenges facing Western but you’d like to keep the people you’ve trained, and we do want to come to the company—job security—is gone,” says a Source: Aviation Week 2020 Workforce Study aerospace and defense (A&D) in the post-pandemic era. Ac- have some issue with people bouncing around.” younger industrial engineer at a Tier 1 supplier, who is leaving cording to comments by industry managers and consultants Announcements of major workforce reductions come out her employer to pursue an MBA. That is compounded by the run by two young professionals with a self-described Silicon during recent Aviation Week conferences and interviews, weekly. On Sept. 3, Embraer said it was laying o 900 employ- fact that layoffs at unionized sites are guided by seniority and Valley mindset looking for like-minded employees. This sum- OEMs and top-tier companies are worried about losing too ees in Brazil, about 4.5% of its global workforce. In August, tenure, which leaves younger, newer workers at greater risk, mer, ETI’s private equity owner Simon Group installed Chief many talented workers as industry sheds tens of thousands of Boeing said it was expanding its own reductions to more than the engineer notes. Operating Officer Eric Lewandowski, 37, and Chief Financial employees—maybe hundreds of thousands over the coming 10% of its workforce. Rough counts of planned and announced Another brewing challenge for A&D companies, accord- Officer Kevin Moyer, 33, and infused the Dayton, Ohio, provid- years—due to the impact of COVID-19. layo s across aerospace amount to more than 100,000 working to a human resources leader at a major aerostructures er with $2 million to rebuild the decades-old company with Also, on top of what could be one of the worst manufacturers, and many more have been furloughed as manufacturers provider, is that aerospace may lag automotive and other new talent and technology. The 60-person firm aims to double ing contractions in A&D history and the largest workforce rightsize to 30-50% lower production needs as well as elevat- industries in its recovery, perhaps by years, making it less or triple in size through acquisitions—ETI is looking to roll reduction since the end of the Cold War, industry leaders are ed aircraft retirements in coming years. And if Washington attractive for new talent. “I do think that is a very real con- up other Midwest machining shops with at least $2 million in concerned about not being able to recover. fails to provide another bailout for airlines by Oct. 1, the U.S. cern for our industry,” the executive says. “If people think pretax earnings, especially those with commercial aerospace “We’re having a lot of layo s, but we’re seeing a lot of people could see as many as 225,000 additional airline workers lose the recovery is too distant, or the current environment is end-markets—and by hiring more personnel. jump ship,” says an executive at a leading OEM. “Really good, their jobs , consultancy Oliver Wyman said in August. too unstable, it certainly is very natural for them to think “We’re looking to find like-minded individuals who want to qualifi ed people,” he adds. “It’s not just the millennial groups; “I’ve never seen anything as bad as this,” says a worker about who else might appreciate the talents and skills that join a company that wants to grow quickly, [with] ambitious it’s across the board—jumping ship to a safer industry.” departing from Spirit AeroSystems, which has announced a [they] bring.” growth goals,” says Lewandowski. “One thing that is nice is Some of the safer industries attracting aerospace talent 28% force reduction. “What is humbling is listening to work- Others agree. “We believe the automotive industry may that as a younger leadership team, we’ve really been able include information technology along the West Coast, espe- ers who have been here for 35, 40 years and them also saying, be well-positioned for growth in fiscal 2021,” say A&D talent to connect with the younger side of our workforce, as well.” cially marquee names such as Amazon, Apple and others. ‘I’ve also never seen anything like this.’” placement specialist Samantha Foster and her colleagues The growth plan existed before the novel coronavirus, but The executive says more talent is leaving commercial OEM Companies across A&D need to cut costs, and consolidat- at ZRG Partners. “Simply put, aerospace talent will likely the pandemic’s effects are feeding into it. Says Lewandowski, operations, but even defense is seeing talent leakage. ing footprints and cutting workers are popular maneuvers. be more open to opportunities in which they can use their “A lot of the companies around us have had huge staff reduc- “Retention has always been an issue for us, especially in But humans are a more complicated asset. “The easier part specialized skills in new and unique ways, within industries tions, and just being able to execute that strategic plan has Southern California,” echoes an executive at another top-tier is preserving the physical capability; the more challenging that they perceive as having greater near-term stability.” helped with recruiting.” c

5 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 59 SPACE WHAT’S NEXT FOR NOAA > FIRST COMMERCIAL WEATHER DATA BUY IS PENDING > NEW SMALLSAT LEO CONSTELLATION PLANNED FOR MID-2020s

Irene Klotz Cape Canaveral

ince its formation, the U.S. National NOAA’s GOES-East satellite captured this image of a Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminis- hurricane off the coast of Florida. tration has set the bar for gathering development and scheduled to launch in late 2021 and in 2025. and distributing data about the plan- Fully fueled, the Lockheed Martin-built GOES-R satel- S lites weigh 11,446 lb. and host six suites of instruments. The et for weather prediction, storm tracking and primary payload is the Advanced Baseline Imager, built by meteorological research. Now, faced with in- L3Harris Technologies, which views Earth in 16 spectral creased demand for its services and with new bands, covering visible, near-infrared and infrared portions of the electromagnetic spectrum. The camera features con- Earth-observing technologies and systems figurable, customized scanning and an interleaved swath emerging, the agency is charting a very dif- design that enables simultaneous hemispheric image col- ferent path for its future. lections every 10 min., regional images every 5 min. and severe weather images every 30 sec. “This is a significant transformation,” Stephen Volz, Since GOES-1 reached orbit in October 1975, a total of 18 assistant administrator for the agency’s Satellite and In- GOES satellites, developed in partnership with NASA, have formation Service, tells Aviation Week. “It’s not just a flip been launched, all but one successfully. from Category A to Category B amongst selectable options The total cost to develop, launch, operate and even- in what we could do.” tually decommission the four-satellite GOES-R Series is Traditionally, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric $10.2 billion, NOAA says. The budget also funds the Envi- Administration (NOAA), which marks its 50th anniver- ronmental Satellite Processing and Distribution System sary in October, operated two primary constellations of and a Comprehensive Large Array-data Stewardship Sys- environmental satellites, one in geostationary (GEO) and tem to process and archive GOES-R Series data and ulti- the other in polar orbit. mately make it available to end users. The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites The satellites, built on Lockheed’s A2100 bus, are designed (GOES) series, now in its fourth iteration, fly 22,243 mi. to last 15 years. The constellation is expected to remain op- above Earth’s equator at speeds equal to the planet’s rota- erational through the mid-2030s. tion. From that perch, a pair of satellites provides continual Complementing the views and data from GEO are four views of the continental U.S., the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, NOAA polar-orbiting satellites, including NOAA-20, which Central and South America and southern Canada. launched in November 2017 to become the first member of The current GEO system, GOES-R, consists of two oper- the new Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) constellation. ational spacecraft and two on-orbit spares. The operational The polar birds fly in sun-synchronous orbits 500-540 mi. birds are GOES East, launched in 2016 and located at 75.2 deg. above Earth, circling the planet nearly 14 times per day to W. Long., and GOES West, launched in 2018 and positioned at provide global weather coverage. 137.2 deg. W. Long. Two more GOES-R series satellites are in Three more JPSS satellites are expected to be added

60 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST SPACE Concept Studies The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has to the constellation, launching about every five years in awarded 32 study contracts to 17 companies and agencies 2022-32. Ball Aerospace built JPSS-1 (renamed NOAA-20 to develop mission concepts, spacecraft and instruments upon reaching orbit) and Northrop Grumman is prime con- for future weather constellations. The projects are: tractor for JPSS-2, -3 and -4. WHAT’S Satellites in the JPSS constellation are designed to operate (Blue: Geostationary and Extended Orbits) for at least seven years and host fi ve primary instruments, (Green: Low Earth Orbit) including the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder, Cross-Track Infrared Sounder, Visible Infrared Imaging Astra Radiometer Suite, Ozone Mapping and Profi ler Suite and GEO Utilization of Common LEO Architecture for Weather (G-CLAW) an instrument to measure the Earth’s energy budget. NEXT Together, the instruments gather global measurements Ball Aerospace Ball Operational Weather Instrument Evolution (BOWIE) Geostationary of atmospheric, terrestrial and oceanic conditions, includ- Infrared (IR) Sounder Study for Compact Hyperspectral IR Observations ing sea and land surface temperatures, vegetation, clouds, (CHIRO) Dedicated Auroral Imager for a Tundra Satellite rainfall, snow and ice cover, fi re locations and smoke plumes, Ball Operational Weather Instrument Evolution-Microwave (BOWIE-M) atmospheric temperature, water vapor and ozone. The data Sounder Study is key for forecasting hurricanes, tornados, blizzards and FOR Ball Operational Weather Instrument Evolution (BOWIE) IR Sounder Study other severe weather and for assessing droughts, forest fi res, NOAA BAE Systems air pollution and other environmental hazards. > FIRST COMMERCIAL WEATHER Infrared Sounding Instrument Constellation Study The data is used in a wide variety of industries and applications including: agriculture, aviation, maritime transporta- DATA BUY IS PENDING LARRIS ECNOLOIES Brandywine Photonics MetNet Small Weather Satellite Network Mission Concept tion, commercial fi shing, shipping, recreational boating, land transportation, defense, coastal community preparedness, > NEW SMALLSAT LEO CONSTELLATION Colorado State University land and ocean tourism, energy, construction, insurance, Tempest-based CubeSat Microwave Sounder for Temperature and PLANNED FOR MID-2020s Moisture Pro ling emergency management and conservation. The cost to develop, build, launch, operate, maintain and GeoMetWatch sustain the NASA/NOAA Suomi-National Polar-orbiting Global HyperSpectral Atmospheric Sounding Capability Commercial Partnership (NPP) spacecraft, four JPSS satellites and the Irene Klotz Cape Canaveral Fee-for-Service Option JPSS ground system from 1995 to 2038 is estimated to be ince its formation, the U.S. National NOAA’s GOES-East satellite captured this image of a GeoOptics $18.8 billion. Cicero-X: An Alternative Mission Concept For Global Atmospheric Sounding NOAA also owns the Deep Space Climate Observatory, Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminis- hurricane off the coast of Florida. Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics which is located at Lagrange point 1 (L1), a gravity-neutral tration has set the bar for gathering development and scheduled to launch in late 2021 and in 2025. Space Weather Architecture Trade Studies orbit between Earth and the Sun approximately 1 million mi. and distributing data about the plan- Fully fueled, the Lockheed Martin-built GOES-R satel- from Earth. From L1, the satellite serves as an early-warn- lites weigh 11,446 lb. and host six suites of instruments. The L3Harris Technologies ing buoy for potentially hazardous space weather, providing S Advancing Today’s ABI Foundation into the Next-Gen GEO Imaging Solution et for weather prediction, storm tracking and primary payload is the Advanced Baseline Imager, built by Hyperspectral GEO Sounder Study about 1 hr. advance notice of geomagnetic storms. meteorological research. Now, faced with in- L3Harris Technologies, which views Earth in 16 spectral Infrared LEO Sounder Instrument Study The agency operates, but does not own, seven addition- Joint LEO Sounding Mission Study creased demand for its services and with new bands, covering visible, near-infrared and infrared portions al satellites including Suomi-NPP, France’s Jason-3, the of the electromagnetic spectrum. The camera features con- Leidos four-member U.S. Air Force Defense Meteorological Satel- Earth-observing technologies and systems figurable, customized scanning and an interleaved swath GEO Earth Multispectral Mapper (GEMM) for Terrestrial Weather Imaging lite Program (DMSP) constellation and the re commissioned design that enables simultaneous hemispheric image col- GOES-13 satellite, now owned by the Space Force and re- emerging, the agency is charting a very dif- Lockheed Martin lections every 10 min., regional images every 5 min. and named Electro Optical/Infrared Weather System-Geosta- ferent path for its future. Flexible Hosted Imager (FHI): Advancing Today’s ABI Foundation into severe weather images every 30 sec. the Next-Gen tionary 1 (EWS-G1). “This is a significant transformation,” Stephen Volz, Since GOES-1 reached orbit in October 1975, a total of 18 Positioned in GEO over the Indian Ocean, EWS-G1 is as- NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory assistant administrator for the agency’s Satellite and In- GOES satellites, developed in partnership with NASA, have GEO IR Sounder sociated with a new U.S. Space Force program to replace formation Service, tells Aviation Week. “It’s not just a flip been launched, all but one successfully. GeoSTAR: A Geostationary Microwave Sounder for NOAA the aging DMSP network. In June, the Space and Missile from Category A to Category B amongst selectable options The total cost to develop, launch, operate and even- Developing Microwave Sounders for NOAA Users in 2030 Systems Center announced Other Transaction Authority in what we could do.” tually decommission the four-satellite GOES-R Series is agreements, worth a combined $309 million, for EWS pro- Northrop Grumman Traditionally, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric $10.2 billion, NOAA says. The budget also funds the Envi- Geostationary Microwave Sounding Unit (GEMSU) totypes to Atmospheric and Space Technology Research Administration (NOAA), which marks its 50th anniver- ronmental Satellite Processing and Distribution System Photonic Imaging Spectrometer Instrument Concept Exploration Associates, General Atomics Electromagnetic Systems sary in October, operated two primary constellations of and a Comprehensive Large Array-data Stewardship Sys- Alternative LEO Small Microwave Sounder (ASMiS) Group and Raytheon Technologies. environmental satellites, one in geostationary (GEO) and tem to process and archive GOES-R Series data and ulti- Microwave Reference Radiometer (MIRER) Constellation Architecture What the NOAA fl eet will look like, including who owns Next-Gen MW/IR/RO Sounder Sat Evaluation the other in polar orbit. mately make it available to end users. Small Satellite Constellation and operates the satellites, will be far less important in the The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites The satellites, built on Lockheed’s A2100 bus, are designed future. “We are placing equal importance on user engage- (GOES) series, now in its fourth iteration, fly 22,243 mi. to last 15 years. The constellation is expected to remain op- Raytheon ment and understanding the use of the data as we have on Real-Time Imager above Earth’s equator at speeds equal to the planet’s rota- erational through the mid-2030s. LEO Sounding Satellite (SounderSat) Concept Exploration (HIRIS) developing the observation systems themselves,” Volz says. tion. From that perch, a pair of satellites provides continual Complementing the views and data from GEO are four “We’ve already invested billions in GOES-R and JPSS, views of the continental U.S., the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, NOAA polar-orbiting satellites, including NOAA-20, which SSL and those are essential to the models and the system that Central and South America and southern Canada. launched in November 2017 to become the first member of Commercial Hosting Service for Sustained GEO Weather Missions we have,” he says. “But when it’s time to refresh that system, Common Bus for Sustained Hosting of LEO Weather Missions The current GEO system, GOES-R, consists of two oper- the new Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) constellation. what do we do next? Do I do a JPSS-Next and a GOES-Next ational spacecraft and two on-orbit spares. The operational The polar birds fly in sun-synchronous orbits 500-540 mi. Xplore and just replicate the path? Or do I take advantage of all the birds are GOES East, launched in 2016 and located at 75.2 deg. above Earth, circling the planet nearly 14 times per day to Panorama – Commercial Earth-Sun L1, L4 and L5 Missions systems advances to produce a much richer spectrum of W. Long., and GOES West, launched in 2018 and positioned at provide global weather coverage. York Space Systems data to improve weather forecasting, environmental fore- 137.2 deg. W. Long. Two more GOES-R series satellites are in Three more JPSS satellites are expected to be added Gaea – LEO SounderSat Mission Concept Study casting and ecosystem modeling?” Source:

60 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 6 SPACE

NOAA’s Vision for 2025 NOAA’s benchmark operational satellite program in 2025 includes the NOAA JPSS and GOES-R series, European Eumetsat METOP and EPS-SG polar satellites, the Meteosat Third-Generation geostationary satellites, the European Space Agency Sentinel Series and geostationary satellites from the Japan Meteorological Agency. It also includes two space weather follow-on satellites and continuation of Cosmic-2 level capability.

Source:

NOAA already taps data collected by the European Or- more data-intensive—to develop the products and services ganization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites, without having to buy whole rooms and buildings full of Indian Space Research Organization, Japan Meteorological processors,” he adds. “The cloud is the place to make this Agency, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency and NASA, possible and to be scalable into the future.” among other partners. NOAA’s first next-generation satellite is expected to “But what we didn’t have 10 years ago, and which we do launch in 2025-26. It will be part of a still-to-be determined have now, is the ability to bring this data together,” Volz constellation of smallsats in LEO outfi tted with microwave says. “The best benefi t for NOAA is to extract the maximum infrared radio occultation sounders to complement data value from the global observation system through collabora- collected by JPSS spacecraft. tions, partnerships, coordination with our interagency and A solicitation for LEO sounder satellites is expected in international partners and developing the ground systems the summer or fall of 2021. “These are going to be 3-5 year interfaces and the IT [information technology] systems, [design life] satellites, not 10-year, which means more rapid which allow for near-real-time integration of these data and replenishment—ideally with di erent technologies as they does all the software and the algorithm to onboard all these become available,” Volz says. di erent data together.” NOAA also is making its fi rst commercial weather data The availability of diversifi ed data is coinciding with the buy, following a pair of pilot programs. On Aug. 4, the agency miniaturization of satellite technology, easier and less ex- released a request for proposals (RFP) for space-based com- pensive access to space and growing commercial interest mercial radio occultation (RO) data for use in NOAA’s opera- and expertise. tional weather forecasts. RO provides atmospheric profi les by “What’s important is continual improvement,” says Rob measuring distortions in GPS and other navigational satellite Mitrevski, L3Harris vice president and general manager of signals as they pass through the limb of Earth’s atmosphere, Spectral Solutions, Space and Airborne Systems. “The ques- relative to an observing satellite’s point of view. tion is: Can you augment that capability with something a ord- NOAA intends to award a two-year indefi nite-delivery, able that might give you another advantage, like revisit time?” indefi nite-quantity contract to one or more vendors. “You L3Harris is among 17 companies and agencies awarded have to give NOAA credit for the speed at which it is moving,” a total of 32 NOAA study contracts to develop mission con- says Peter Platzer, CEO of San Francisco-based Spire Global, cepts, spacecraft and instruments for future weather con- which participated in both rounds of NOAA’s commercial RO stellations. The projects address not just imagery and data data pilot program. “This is a pretty rapid adoption timeline.” traditionally collected from GEO and low Earth orbit (LEO) Later this year, NOAA plans to release a draft RFP for but also new orbits, which NOAA refers to as Extended Orbit. GEO imager study contracts, followed in 2021 by additional The agency also is looking to take advantage of cloud-based LEO satellites outfi tted with microwave, infrared and RO services to integrate, process and distribute its massive instruments, depending on budget. The agency also is de- datasets in near real time. “We’re talking about petabytes veloping follow-on missions for space weather at L1. of data a day. This is a processing beast for us, historically NOAA, which currently receives about $5 billion a year, done with our on-premises hardware,” Volz says. will need more money as it reinvests in new systems, but “We’re looking at how and where we migrate . . . to cloud the amount will be nowhere near as much as what it would providers so that we can have much more scalability— cost to build another JPSS and another GOES constellation. particularly as we’re bringing on new hyperspectral and “It is a cultural change,” says Platzer. “But the benefi ts synthetic aperture radar imagery datasets that are much for the customer are substantial.” c

6 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST SPACE S AR ASK THE Do hypersonics invalidate and effectively NOAA’s Vision for 2025 defeat the mutually assured destruction EDITORS concept of the nuclear triad? It seems NOAA’s benchmark operational the capability of a hair-trigger response satellite program in 2025 with a hypersonic weapon is an incredibly includes the NOAA JPSS and destabilizing situation. GOES-R series, European Eumetsat METOP and EPS-SG polar satellites, the Meteosat Third-Generation Defense Editor Steve Trimble posed that very question earlier this year to Mike White, the director for the hypersonics portfolio in the Pentagon’s geostationary satellites, research and engineering branch. White’s reponse: I think that it’s more the European Space destabilizing if our adversaries have them and we don’t. So, in order for Agency Sentinel Series us to be able to remove that, we have to be able to counter with similar and geostationary capabilities when the time comes. satellites from the And then, there are a set of targets and missions that you really need Japan Meteorological these systems to be able to accomplish. And if you can’t accomplish those missions, then you lose the deterrence of our broader forces. . . . I believe Agency. It also includes that’s more destabilizing. two space weather follow-on So, the ﬁ rst real objective is to make sure that we are holding adversary satellites and continuation capabilities at risk while maintaining our military deterrence and our of Cosmic-2 level capability. strategic deterrence with our warﬁ ghting capability. c

Source: AIRAN S CLASS RAN RIES AIR FORCE INSE ASS CONICAION SC ND CLASS DOLAS ARERS AIR FORCE

NOAA already taps data collected by the European Or- more data-intensive—to develop the products and services ganization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites, without having to buy whole rooms and buildings full of Indian Space Research Organization, Japan Meteorological processors,” he adds. “The cloud is the place to make this Agency, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency and NASA, possible and to be scalable into the future.” among other partners. NOAA’s first next-generation satellite is expected to “But what we didn’t have 10 years ago, and which we do launch in 2025-26. It will be part of a still-to-be determined have now, is the ability to bring this data together,” Volz constellation of smallsats in LEO outfi tted with microwave says. “The best benefi t for NOAA is to extract the maximum infrared radio occultation sounders to complement data value from the global observation system through collabora- collected by JPSS spacecraft. tions, partnerships, coordination with our interagency and A solicitation for LEO sounder satellites is expected in international partners and developing the ground systems the summer or fall of 2021. “These are going to be 3-5 year interfaces and the IT [information technology] systems, [design life] satellites, not 10-year, which means more rapid which allow for near-real-time integration of these data and replenishment—ideally with di erent technologies as they does all the software and the algorithm to onboard all these become available,” Volz says. di erent data together.” NOAA also is making its fi rst commercial weather data The availability of diversifi ed data is coinciding with the buy, following a pair of pilot programs. On Aug. 4, the agency miniaturization of satellite technology, easier and less ex- released a request for proposals (RFP) for space-based com- pensive access to space and growing commercial interest mercial radio occultation (RO) data for use in NOAA’s opera- Has radar stealth been fatally compromised? but it can carry four (and after 2023, six) Amraams and expertise. tional weather forecasts. RO provides atmospheric profi les by With “Future Shock” (July 27-Aug. 13, p. 52) internally on such missions. “What’s important is continual improvement,” says Rob measuring distortions in GPS and other navigational satellite you show an F-35A with six external pylons Yes, AIM-120s are medium-range missiles. But, as the Mitrevski, L3Harris vice president and general manager of signals as they pass through the limb of Earth’s atmosphere, and two laser-guided bombs (above left); F/A-18E shoot-down of a Syrian Su-22 in 2018 showed, Spectral Solutions, Space and Airborne Systems. “The ques- relative to an observing satellite’s point of view. they are also capable of short-range intercepts—if nec- tion is: Can you augment that capability with something a ord- NOAA intends to award a two-year indefi nite-delivery, page 54 shows two F-35As each carrying an essary. The F-35 also has demonstrated the ability to able that might give you another advantage, like revisit time?” indefi nite-quantity contract to one or more vendors. “You AIM-9 on the left wing (above right). We have employ laser-guided bombs from inside the weapons L3Harris is among 17 companies and agencies awarded have to give NOAA credit for the speed at which it is moving,” been told that the next conflict could be with bay, so that is not an issue in stealth mode. a total of 32 NOAA study contracts to develop mission con- says Peter Platzer, CEO of San Francisco-based Spire Global, a “near-peer” nation with real air combat F-35 pilots have to train to be profi cient in all potential cepts, spacecraft and instruments for future weather con- which participated in both rounds of NOAA’s commercial RO capability. So why then is the F-35 being flown air combat scenarios, which include operations against stellations. The projects address not just imagery and data data pilot program. “This is a pretty rapid adoption timeline.” as if its next opponent will have the air-to-air lightly defended or undefended targets. c traditionally collected from GEO and low Earth orbit (LEO) Later this year, NOAA plans to release a draft RFP for capabilities of the former Islamic State group? but also new orbits, which NOAA refers to as Extended Orbit. GEO imager study contracts, followed in 2021 by additional The agency also is looking to take advantage of cloud-based LEO satellites outfi tted with microwave, infrared and RO services to integrate, process and distribute its massive instruments, depending on budget. The agency also is de- Steve Trimble responds: When minimizing radar cross The Aviation Week Network invites readers to datasets in near real time. “We’re talking about petabytes veloping follow-on missions for space weather at L1. section (RCS) is not required for a mission, the F-35 submit questions to our editors. Answers are of data a day. This is a processing beast for us, historically NOAA, which currently receives about $5 billion a year, can carry weapons externally. Not every mission re- published online at AviationWeek.com. To access done with our on-premises hardware,” Volz says. will need more money as it reinvests in new systems, but quires minimizing the RCS profi le. It is true that the our answer archive or post a new question, go to: “We’re looking at how and where we migrate . . . to cloud the amount will be nowhere near as much as what it would F-35 would be unable to use AIM-9s in stealth mode, AviationWeek.com/asktheeditors providers so that we can have much more scalability— cost to build another JPSS and another GOES constellation. particularly as we’re bringing on new hyperspectral and “It is a cultural change,” says Platzer. “But the benefi ts synthetic aperture radar imagery datasets that are much for the customer are substantial.” c

6 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 6 ADVERTISING SECTION Aerospace Products and Services

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6 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 65 VIEWPOINT

A Primer for Acquisitions and Divestitures By Alex Krutz

he Aerospace Industries Association estimates first two phases and is now entering the third. There that the U.S. aerospace and defense (A&D) will be many divestitures of business units that larger Tindustry employs about 2.5 million workers, companies designate as noncore assets, which which is approximately 2% of the nation’s total they will sell to generate cash to support oper- employment base and 20% of the U.S. manu- ations of their core assets. facturing workforce. This means that both During all divestitures, three areas of growth and contraction in the A&D in- focus should be addressed to ensure dustry can have a significant impact successful execution. First are op- on the U.S. economy. erational considerations such as In previous decades, times of culture and employees, envi- growth in the A&D industry ronment, physical asset re- were steady and extended over views and product delivery many years. During growth peri- commitments. Second are finan- ods, A&D manufacturers’ business cial considerations of the transac- transformation happened through or- tion, including appropriate financial ganic growth and mergers and acquisi- modeling for the business units being ditions. These events typically have a well- vested. Also, cost allocations, transition planned timeline and strong execution strategies, support services and creditor relationships of and they create value for all parties involved. the divesting company need to be identified and During economic contractions, in contrast, com- transitioned. Third are commercial obligations such panies usually have a short timeline for divestitures KOKOROYUKIas AND legal MOHAMED RASIK/GETTYarrangements IMAGES with customers and suppliers. because they must take quick and decisive action due to These contracts should be reviewed to ensure they are cash shortfalls and the need to finance ongoing opera- appropriately novated and transferred. tions. Since 2000, there have been three contractions These three areas of focus often are not diligently fol- due to exogenous events: Sept. 11, 2001; the financial cri- lowed in challenging times of contraction, and there is sis of 2008; and the novel coronavirus in 2020. These usually a rush through this third phase of divestiture. shocks have significantly affected the A&D industry. This can be damaging to both companies involved. In response to these events and Philip Vaillancourt from Accen- after economic downturns start, ture’s A&D practice points out that there are multiple paths companies many companies fold an acquired can take to improve financial condi- MANY COMPANIES company into their existing ineffi- tions. The commercial airlines and cient processes, systems and oper- auto industry during contractions MISS THE CHANCE TO ating model—missing the chance to generally take the path of restructur- reinvent for the future and leapfrog ing through Chapter 11 reorganiza- the status quo. The result is usually tions. A&D companies usually take a REINVENT FOR THE weak bottom-line synergies and more complex transformation path anemic topline growth. of downsizing through divestitures FUTURE AND LEAPFROG Accenture Strategy analyzed 800 to generate cash to survive until the global merger and acquisition trans- next growth cycle begins. THE STATUS QUO. actions, and just 27% resulted in both The impact of the 2001 and 2008 operating-margin improvement and events forced many A&D manu- revenue growth. Accenture noted facturers to transform their busi- two main factors in long-term suc- nesses through divestitures. Those companies had to cess stories for deals. First, prior to the close of the deal, choose this path because of poor planning, ineffective leaders created a long-term blueprint for the intended execution or cash disbursements to shareholders during synergies and the operating model. They seized the op- years of growth, which led to the need for cash infusion portunity to create an intelligent enterprise, reimagin- and financial restructuring during the contractions after ing the way work is done, and they transformed their the economic downturns. workforce. Second, they ensured that an executive with Once a contraction starts in the A&D industry, three financial expertise remained involved after the deal phases ensue. First come significant expense reductions closed to see that the company achieved the expected such as cuts in discretionary spending, business travel financial value from that blueprint. and research and development programs. Second, work- These steps are especially critical during these chal- force reductions such as furloughs and layoffs are made. lenging times so that the divesting company is ready to Third, financial restructuring such as plant rationaliza- grow again and the acquiring company is well-positioned tion, consolidations and business unit divestiture is under- and organized with its newly added business unit. c taken. Due to the sudden contraction caused by the COVID-19 crisis, the A&D industry has moved swiftly through the Alex Krutz is managing director at Patriot Industrial Partners.

66 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 14-27, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST VIEWPOINT

A Primer for Acquisitions and Divestitures By Alex Krutz he Aerospace Industries Association estimates first two phases and is now entering the third. There that the U.S. aerospace and defense (A&D) will be many divestitures of business units that larger Tindustry employs about 2.5 million workers, companies designate as noncore assets, which which is approximately 2% of the nation’s total they will sell to generate cash to support oper- employment base and 20% of the U.S. manu- ations of their core assets. facturing workforce. This means that both During all divestitures, three areas of growth and contraction in the A&D in- focus should be addressed to ensure dustry can have a significant impact successful execution. First are op- on the U.S. economy. erational considerations such as In previous decades, times of culture and employees, envi- growth in the A&D industry ronment, physical asset re- were steady and extended over views and product delivery many years. During growth peri- commitments. Second are finan- Stay Informed. Stay Connected. ods, A&D manufacturers’ business cial considerations of the transac- transformation happened through or- tion, including appropriate financial ganic growth and mergers and acquisi- modeling for the business units being di- Stay tions. These events typically have a well- vested. Also, cost allocations, transition Engaged. planned timeline and strong execution strategies, support services and creditor relationships of and they create value for all parties involved. the divesting company need to be identified and During economic contractions, in contrast, com- transitioned. Third are commercial obligations such KOKOROYUKI AND MOHAMED RASIK/GETTY IMAGES Access authoritative market insights and analysis along with company, program, panies usually have a short timeline for divestitures as legal arrangements with customers and suppliers. because they must take quick and decisive action due to These contracts should be reviewed to ensure they are ﬂeet and contact databases covering the global aviation, aerospace and defense cash shortfalls and the need to finance ongoing opera- appropriately novated and transferred. tions. Since 2000, there have been three contractions These three areas of focus often are not diligently fol- communities with an Aviation Week Intelligence Network (AWIN) Membership. due to exogenous events: Sept. 11, 2001; the financial cri- lowed in challenging times of contraction, and there is sis of 2008; and the novel coronavirus in 2020. These usually a rush through this third phase of divestiture. shocks have significantly affected the A&D industry. This can be damaging to both companies involved. In response to these events and Philip Vaillancourt from Accen- after economic downturns start, ture’s A&D practice points out that there are multiple paths companies many companies fold an acquired can take to improve financial condi- MANY COMPANIES company into their existing ineffi- tions. The commercial airlines and cient processes, systems and oper- auto industry during contractions MISS THE CHANCE TO ating model—missing the chance to generally take the path of restructur- reinvent for the future and leapfrog ing through Chapter 11 reorganiza- the status quo. The result is usually tions. A&D companies usually take a REINVENT FOR THE weak bottom-line synergies and more complex transformation path anemic topline growth. of downsizing through divestitures FUTURE AND LEAPFROG Accenture Strategy analyzed 800 to generate cash to survive until the global merger and acquisition trans- next growth cycle begins. THE STATUS QUO. actions, and just 27% resulted in both The impact of the 2001 and 2008 operating-margin improvement and events forced many A&D manu- revenue growth. Accenture noted facturers to transform their busi- two main factors in long-term suc- nesses through divestitures. Those companies had to cess stories for deals. First, prior to the close of the deal, Become a member today. choose this path because of poor planning, ineffective leaders created a long-term blueprint for the intended execution or cash disbursements to shareholders during synergies and the operating model. They seized the op- Visit aviationweek.com/AWINinfo to schedule your demo. years of growth, which led to the need for cash infusion portunity to create an intelligent enterprise, reimagin- and financial restructuring during the contractions after ing the way work is done, and they transformed their the economic downturns. workforce. Second, they ensured that an executive with Once a contraction starts in the A&D industry, three financial expertise remained involved after the deal phases ensue. First come significant expense reductions closed to see that the company achieved the expected such as cuts in discretionary spending, business travel financial value from that blueprint. and research and development programs. Second, work- These steps are especially critical during these chal- force reductions such as furloughs and layoffs are made. lenging times so that the divesting company is ready to Third, financial restructuring such as plant rationaliza- grow again and the acquiring company is well-positioned tion, consolidations and business unit divestiture is under- and organized with its newly added business unit. c Or call or taken. Due to the sudden contraction caused by the COVID-19 Anne McMahon at +1 646 291 6353 crisis, the A&D industry has moved swiftly through the Alex Krutz is managing director at Patriot Industrial Partners. Thom Clayton +44 (0) 20 7017 6106

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