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Aviation 2030 Disruption and Its Implications for the Aviation Sector Thriving on Disruption Series

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Aviation 2030 Disruption and Its Implications for the Aviation Sector Thriving on Disruption Series Aviation 2030 Disruption and its implications for the aviation sector Thriving on disruption series Major disruption is promised by a range of powerful new technologies and public pressure. Players that turn these trends to their advantage have the opportunity to reshape the industry. In this piece, we evaluate the potential for alternative energy sources, maintenance robotics, and the return of supersonic. We do this through the lens of 5 key player types. Christopher Brown Jono Anderson KPMG in Ireland KPMG in the US Global Strategy Group Kieran O’Brien Charlie Simpson KPMG International KPMG in Ireland KPMG in the UK Introduction Aviation has long been glamorous, but for some players in the value chain, it has also often proved to be unprofitable. Despite current headwinds, aviation Elsewhere in KPMG’s Mobility 2030 has arguably experienced a golden series,3 we have looked at changes age: a phase of relatively profitable affecting ground transport, and in growth, driven especially by ‘Getting Mobility off the ground’4 commercial passengers in developing we considered air-based disruption markets. The International Air in short-distance travel. In KPMG’s Transport Association (IATA) forecasts annual Aviation Industry Leaders that global passenger numbers will Report,5 we look at the ‘traditional’ almost double by 2037, reaching aviation industry’s topical issues. 8.2 billion annually.1 To match that demand, the aviation industry is In this paper, we focus on select continuing to raise output to historic issues for traditional aviation, with highs. In July 2018, Airbus announced that longer-term 2030 lens. In that over 37,000 new aircraft – valued particular, we consider the disruption at $5.8 trillion – are required over 20 potential related to developments in: years.2 With regular retirement of • Alternative energy sources older fleet, that equates to a doubling of the world’s passenger fleet to • Maintenance robotics more than 48,000 aircraft. • Supersonic engineering Operators continue to come and go, We do this through the lens of: but the scaling of profitable models since the 1990s has sustained longer • OEMs (Original Equipment than many would have predicted. Manufacturers) Likewise, aviation finance has grown • Lessors with fleet scale, dozens of specialist • Operators lessors now serve a distinct and • MROs (Maintenance, repair and global need. overhaul (organizations)) • Airports About this report This report combines insights As leading advisors to the global from KPMG member firms aviation sector, KPMG professionals recent and ongoing client present a vision of the aviation engagement with secondary landscape in 2030 and beyond. research. We have also included several client quotations from sector conversations in late 2019. © 2019 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated. All rights reserved. 2 Aviation 2030 Disruption radar The landscape of technologies impacting aviation can be visualized in the format below. Our disruption radar groups relevant technologies and business models by their relative maturity, as a guide for business leaders to investment relevance and urgency. Figure 1: Sector disruption radar with examples (technologies and business models) by illustrative relative maturity Hypersonic 1st class Next gen Auto -pilot Quantum supersonic Project Sunrise computing Ticketless boarding Big data & Hub --to hub UltraFan Voice analytics Electric, hybrid and engines technology P2C conversion hydrogen aircraft Biofuel Maintenance 3D printing / Premium economy Flying V ULR Drones additive manufacturing LCCs Nascent Sunrise Strategic Table-stakes Mature Sunset Composite materials Point --to point Snakes and beetles Blockchain (Maintenance Turboprops Artiÿcial Robotics) Cybersecurity Urban air Intelligence (AI) Fleet renewal Virtual and mobility Satellite based air Augmented (VTOL / eVTOL) tra°ffic surveillance Reality (VR/AR) Biometrics Low-cost long-haul Shark skin Unmanned planes There are many predictions about these and other technologies, with much focus on the technical aspects. Given the investment horizons in this industry are often 15+ years, it logically follows that which business models are winning or failing in the 2030s is already being infuenced by decisions today. Our focus, therefore, is the implications these technologies have on clients’ strategic choices and investment cases today. © 2019 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated. All rights reserved. Aviation 2030 3 Figure 2: Framework for disruption Grouping some of the newer, emergent technologies, we identify some big themes for 2030. Using the framework below, we can explore the implications of each theme by stakeholder. Key stakeholders / value chain players Area Examples OsMR OEMs Operators / Lessors Financiers Airports Composite materials (e.g. carbon fibre, aluminium), better aerodynamics (e.g. Flying Plane design V), shark skin tech, fleet renewal, quantum computing to accelerate design testing Decarbonization Engine efficiency Engines with higher bypass ratio / ultra high (Current bypass variations) Alternate sources Biofuel, electric and hybrid engines of energy Big data & Predictive maintenance using flight data analytics 3D printing / additive Aircraft parts, cabin interiors, engine parts manufacturing Baggage, retail, distribution, loyalty, maintenance Blockchain and parts integrity, paperwork, smart contracts and leases GATS The Global Aircraft Trading System Chatbots, airport congestion, airspace Digital AI congestion, real time predictive pricing Maintenance Drones for service scans, ‘snakes and beetles’, robotics on-board service Immersive IFE, Rolls Royce ‘Blisk’ for remote AR,VR maintenance Munich Airport Information Security Hub and Cyber security other ongoing R&D projects on cyber security Voice Technology Siri and Alexa for live updates and check-in Biometrics Biometric boarding Supersonic Speed Engine and aircraft advances Hypersonic New locations Vertical take-off and landing (VTOL/eVTOL), MaaS Access in intra-urban and longer distance, non-airport On-demand pick up platforms This paper, the first of the Aviation 2030 series, covers the above highlighted areas, considering implications across each of the 5 stakeholder types. Subsequent papers will address other areas. © 2019 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”). KPMG International provides no client services and is a Swiss entity with which the independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated. All rights reserved. 4 Aviation 2030 Alternative sources of energy Mounting external pressure will not settle for sector’s incremental improvements. Figure 3: Aviation emissions in context, CO2 per passenger kilometer Road Passenger [g CO /p-km] Gasoline, diesel, hybrid cars 2 Gasoline, diesel, hybrid taxis Coach, bus, rapid transit 2 and 3 wheel motorbike Rail Passenger rail, metro, tram Waterborne Passenger ferry Air Passenger aircraft 0 50 100 150 200 250 Direct* CO² Emissions per Distance [gCO² /km] *The ranges only give an indication of direct vehicle fuel emissions. They exclude indirect emissions arising from vehicle manufacture, infrastructure, etc. included in life-cycle analyses. Source: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Aviation, as a major greenhouse gas (GHG) emitter,6 faces However, with words meaning ‘the shame of fying’ severe pressure to reduce its environmental impact, entering Swedish, Dutch, German and Danish, it is clear from both consumers and governments.7 The industry is that aviation will need more than a PR offensive to fourish committed to cutting CO2 emissions to half 2005 levels as consumer environmentalism grows. Shark skin paint by 2050.8 A range of technologies promise to help it do so, will soon begin to bring incremental effciency gains but many of the potential game changers, such as feet through reduced air drag. electrifcation, still look remote. Aviation will therefore come under increasing pressure over the next decade. As fgure 4 summarizes, alternative sources of energy, especially waste-derived biofuels, offer realistic prospects In part, this demands a better, evidence-based response of emissions cuts in the near-term, and it is no surprise from the sector. As Figure 3 demonstrates, there is much they are being explored by players such as British overlap in emission effciency per passenger distance. Airways, Cathay, United and Virgin. Companies like Neste, More can and should be done to set modern, fuel effcient LanzaTech, and Velocys, which have signed deals with feets in the context of other means of transport - and operators to provide fuel made from waste products, offer indeed other aspects of environmental footprint, such as opportunities to cut overall lifecycle GHG by over 50%, diet, fast fashion or gadget consumerism. There are also without encouraging monocultures or deforestation. But the positive externalities that fying has brought, like trade these efforts remain small-scale, due to the fragmented and cross-cultural connections. Do we want to return to a nature of the supply chain and the diffculty of securing world where only the elite fy again? fuel certifcation and fnance for major production plants. © 2019 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”).
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