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Trends in International Arms Transfers, 2020 3
SIPRI Fact Sheet March 2021 TRENDS IN INTERNATIONAL KEY FACTS w The volume of international ARMS TRANSFERS, 2020 transfers of major arms in 2016–20 was 0.5 per cent lower than in 2011–15 and 12 per cent pieter d. wezeman, alexandra kuimova and higher than in 2006–10. siemon t. wezeman w The five largest arms exporters in 2016–20 were the The volume of international transfers of major arms in 2016–20 was United States, Russia, France, 0.5 per cent lower than in 2011–15 and 12 per cent higher than in 2006–10 Germany and China. Together, they accounted for 76 per cent of (see figure 1).1 The five largest arms exporters in 2016–20 were the United all exports of major arms in States, Russia, France, Germany and China (see table 1). The five largest 2016–20. arms importers were Saudi Arabia, India, Egypt, Australia and China w In 2016–20 US arms exports (see table 2). Between 2011–15 and 2016–20 there were increases in arms accounted for 37 per cent of the transfers to the Middle East (25 per cent) and to Europe (12 per cent), while global total and were 15 per cent there were decreases in the transfers to Africa (–13 per cent), the Americas higher than in 2011–15. (–43 per cent), and Asia and Oceania (–8.3 per cent). w Russian arms exports From 15 March 2021 SIPRI’s open-access Arms Transfers Database decreased by 22 per cent includes updated data on transfers of major arms for 1950–2020, which between 2011–15 and 2016–20. -
[20Pt]Algorithms for Constrained Optimization: [ 5Pt]
SOL Optimization 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s Summary 2020s Algorithms for Constrained Optimization: The Benefits of General-purpose Software Michael Saunders MS&E and ICME, Stanford University California, USA 3rd AI+IoT Business Conference Shenzhen, China, April 25, 2019 Optimization Software 3rd AI+IoT Business Conference, Shenzhen, April 25, 2019 1/39 SOL Optimization 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s Summary 2020s SOL Systems Optimization Laboratory George Dantzig, Stanford University, 1974 Inventor of the Simplex Method Father of linear programming Large-scale optimization: Algorithms, software, applications Optimization Software 3rd AI+IoT Business Conference, Shenzhen, April 25, 2019 2/39 SOL Optimization 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s Summary 2020s SOL history 1974 Dantzig and Cottle start SOL 1974{78 John Tomlin, LP/MIP expert 1974{2005 Alan Manne, nonlinear economic models 1975{76 MS, MINOS first version 1979{87 Philip Gill, Walter Murray, MS, Margaret Wright (Gang of 4!) 1989{ Gerd Infanger, stochastic optimization 1979{ Walter Murray, MS, many students 2002{ Yinyu Ye, optimization algorithms, especially interior methods This week! UC Berkeley opened George B. Dantzig Auditorium Optimization Software 3rd AI+IoT Business Conference, Shenzhen, April 25, 2019 3/39 SOL Optimization 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s Summary 2020s Optimization problems Minimize an objective function subject to constraints: 0 x 1 min '(x) st ` ≤ @ Ax A ≤ u c(x) x variables 0 1 A matrix c1(x) B . C c(x) nonlinear functions @ . A c (x) `; u bounds m Optimization -
Aviation 2030 Disruption and Its Implications for the Aviation Sector Thriving on Disruption Series
Aviation 2030 Disruption and its implications for the aviation sector Thriving on disruption series Major disruption is promised by a range of powerful new technologies and public pressure. Players that turn these trends to their advantage have the opportunity to reshape the industry. In this piece, we evaluate the potential for alternative energy sources, maintenance robotics, and the return of supersonic. We do this through the lens of 5 key player types. Christopher Brown Jono Anderson KPMG in Ireland KPMG in the US Global Strategy Group Kieran O’Brien Charlie Simpson KPMG International KPMG in Ireland KPMG in the UK Introduction Aviation has long been glamorous, but for some players in the value chain, it has also often proved to be unprofitable. Despite current headwinds, aviation Elsewhere in KPMG’s Mobility 2030 has arguably experienced a golden series,3 we have looked at changes age: a phase of relatively profitable affecting ground transport, and in growth, driven especially by ‘Getting Mobility off the ground’4 commercial passengers in developing we considered air-based disruption markets. The International Air in short-distance travel. In KPMG’s Transport Association (IATA) forecasts annual Aviation Industry Leaders that global passenger numbers will Report,5 we look at the ‘traditional’ almost double by 2037, reaching aviation industry’s topical issues. 8.2 billion annually.1 To match that demand, the aviation industry is In this paper, we focus on select continuing to raise output to historic issues for traditional aviation, with highs. In July 2018, Airbus announced that longer-term 2030 lens. In that over 37,000 new aircraft – valued particular, we consider the disruption at $5.8 trillion – are required over 20 potential related to developments in: years.2 With regular retirement of • Alternative energy sources older fleet, that equates to a doubling of the world’s passenger fleet to • Maintenance robotics more than 48,000 aircraft. -
Tell Me How This Ends Military Advice, Strategic Goals, and the “Forever War” in Afghanistan
JULY 2019 Tell Me How This Ends Military Advice, Strategic Goals, and the “Forever War” in Afghanistan AUTHOR Mark F. Cancian A Report of the CSIS INTERNATIONAL SECURITY PROGRAM JULY 2019 Tell Me How This Ends Military Advice, Strategic Goals, and the “Forever War” in Afghanistan AUTHOR Mark F. Cancian A Report of the CSIS International Security Program Lanham • Boulder • New York • London About CSIS Established in Washington, D.C., over 50 years ago, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) is a bipartisan, nonprofit policy research organization dedicated to providing strategic in sights and policy solutions to help decisionmakers chart a course toward a better world. In late 2015, Thomas J. Pritzker was named chairman of the CSIS Board of Trustees. Mr. Pritzker succeeded former U.S. senator Sam Nunn (D-GA), who chaired the CSIS Board of Trustees from 1999 to 2015. CSIS is led by John J. Hamre, who has served as president and chief executive officer since 2000. Founded in 1962 by David M. Abshire and Admiral Arleigh Burke, CSIS is one of the world’s preeminent international policy in stitutions focused on defense and security; regional study; and transnational challenges ranging from energy and trade to global development and economic integration. For eight consecutive years, CSIS has been named the world’s number one think tank for defense and national security by the University of Pennsylvania’s “Go To Think Tank Index.” The Center’s over 220 full-time staff and large network of affiliated scholars conduct research and analysis and develop policy initiatives that look to the future and anticipate change. -
Battlefields and Boardrooms: Women's Leadership in the Military and Private Sector
Battlefields and Boardrooms JANUARY 2015 Women’s Leadership in the Military and the Private Sector By Nora Bensahel, David Barno, Katherine Kidder, and Kelley Sayler Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank the many people who contributed their time and energy to help bring this report to publication. We would like to thank our CNAS colleagues senior fellow Phil Carter and research intern Sam Arras for their important contributions throughout the development of the report. We thank Dafna Rand for managing this report’s publication and for her substantive editorial comments. We thank all of our other CNAS colleagues who provided valuable feedback on draft versions of the report. Outside of CNAS, we thank Lewis Runnion and Bank of America for their gener- ous support for this project. We thank the organizers and sponsors of the Cornell University Women Veterans Roundtable, the U.S. armed forces, and several Fortune 500 companies for generously sharing their expertise, insights, and people for interviews. We particularly thank the current and former executive level women leaders we interviewed for this report. We also thank the dozens of dedicated professionals from the U.S. Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marines, active and retired, who shared their insights and perspectives. We offer a special thanks to Liz Fontaine for her creative layout design. The authors alone are responsible for any error of fact, analysis, or omission. Cover Image U.S. Army Spc. Rebecca Buck, a medic from Headquarters and Headquarters Company, 1st Battalion, 14th Infantry Regiment, 2nd Stryker Brigade Combat Team, 25th Infantry Division, provides perimeter security outside an Iraqi police station in the Tarmiya Province of Iraq, March 30, 2008. -
Britain in the 2020S
REPORT FUTURE PROOF BRITAIN IN THE 2020S Mathew Lawrence December 2016 © IPPR 2016 Institute for Public Policy Research INTRODUCTION Brexit is the firing gun on a decade of disruption. As the UK negotiates its new place in the world, an accelerating wave of economic, social and technological change will reshape the country, in often quite radical ways. In this report, we set out five powerful trends that will drive change in the 2020s. 1. A demographic tipping point: As the population grows, the UK is set to age sharply and become increasingly diverse. Globally, the long expansion of the working-age CONTENTS population is set to slow sharply. 2. An economic world transformed: The economic world order will become more Introduction ............................................................................................................ 3 fragile as globalisation evolves, trade patterns shift, and economic power gravitates toward Asia. At the same time, developed economies are likely to struggle to escape Executive summary: The UK in 2030 ..................................................................... 4 conditions of secular stagnation. The institutions governing the global economy are A world transformed: Five major disruptive forces reshaping Britain .................. 6 likely to come under intense pressure as the American hegemony that underpinned the postwar international order fades and the Global South rises in economic and Britain at the periphery? ..................................................................................8 -
The 2020S Will Be a Crunch Decade That Will Determine the UK's
Torsten Swati Stephen Charlie Henry Gregory Daniel Anna May 18th, Bell Dhingra Machin McCurdy Overman Thwaites Tomlinson Valero 2021 The 2020s will be a crunch decade that will determine the UK’s trajectory into the mid-21st century 0 comments | 5 shares Estimated reading time: 7 minutes As vaccines roll out and restrictions are lifted, public debate is turning to the economic recovery from COVID-19 and the deepest annual downturn for 300 years that came in its wake. But viewing the years ahead simply as the post-pandemic period is far too limited a frame, say the authors of the Economy 2020 Inquiry. Instead, the 2020s look set to be the decisive decade during which the UK will need to renew its approach to achieving economic success. The economic shock caused by COVID-19 and the associated containment measures resulted in the largest annual contraction in GDP in three centuries. Unprecedented scal support sustained household incomes and attenuated the rise in unemployment and business insolvencies. And a successful vaccination rollout means a recovery is now underway and forecast to continue, even if the uneven global rollout of vaccinations and related risk of mutations pose risks. Choices countries make do matter for their relative economic strengths As with any major recession, the pandemic will drive change for years to come. But it will do so in unique ways. All downturns have lasting impacts from the direct effects on people (e.g. unemployment) and rms (e.g. debt). This crisis will be no exception. The associated rise in unemployment will last for several years, while the highly unequal impact of the crisis will have a lasting legacy. -
19 October 2020 "Generated on Refers to the Date on Which the User Accessed the List and Not the Last Date of Substantive Update to the List
Res. 1988 (2011) List The List established and maintained pursuant to Security Council res. 1988 (2011) Generated on: 19 October 2020 "Generated on refers to the date on which the user accessed the list and not the last date of substantive update to the list. Information on the substantive list updates are provided on the Council / Committee’s website." Composition of the List The list consists of the two sections specified below: A. Individuals B. Entities and other groups Information about de-listing may be found at: https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/ombudsperson (for res. 1267) https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/sanctions/delisting (for other Committees) https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/content/2231/list (for res. 2231) A. Individuals TAi.155 Name: 1: ABDUL AZIZ 2: ABBASIN 3: na 4: na ﻋﺒﺪ اﻟﻌﺰﻳﺰ ﻋﺒﺎﺳﯿﻦ :(Name (original script Title: na Designation: na DOB: 1969 POB: Sheykhan Village, Pirkowti Area, Orgun District, Paktika Province, Afghanistan Good quality a.k.a.: Abdul Aziz Mahsud Low quality a.k.a.: na Nationality: na Passport no: na National identification no: na Address: na Listed on: 4 Oct. 2011 (amended on 22 Apr. 2013) Other information: Key commander in the Haqqani Network (TAe.012) under Sirajuddin Jallaloudine Haqqani (TAi.144). Taliban Shadow Governor for Orgun District, Paktika Province as of early 2010. Operated a training camp for non- Afghan fighters in Paktika Province. Has been involved in the transport of weapons to Afghanistan. INTERPOL- UN Security Council Special Notice web link: https://www.interpol.int/en/How-we-work/Notices/View-UN-Notices- Individuals click here TAi.121 Name: 1: AZIZIRAHMAN 2: ABDUL AHAD 3: na 4: na ﻋﺰﯾﺰ اﻟﺮﺣﻤﺎن ﻋﺒﺪ اﻻﺣﺪ :(Name (original script Title: Mr Designation: Third Secretary, Taliban Embassy, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates DOB: 1972 POB: Shega District, Kandahar Province, Afghanistan Good quality a.k.a.: na Low quality a.k.a.: na Nationality: Afghanistan Passport no: na National identification no: Afghan national identification card (tazkira) number 44323 na Address: na Listed on: 25 Jan. -
Trump's Generals
STRATEGIC STUDIES QUARTERLY - PERSPECTIVE Trump’s Generals: A Natural Experiment in Civil-Military Relations JAMES JOYNER Abstract President Donald Trump’s filling of numerous top policy positions with active and retired officers he called “my generals” generated fears of mili- tarization of foreign policy, loss of civilian control of the military, and politicization of the military—yet also hope that they might restrain his worst impulses. Because the generals were all gone by the halfway mark of his administration, we have a natural experiment that allows us to com- pare a Trump presidency with and without retired generals serving as “adults in the room.” None of the dire predictions turned out to be quite true. While Trump repeatedly flirted with civil- military crises, they were not significantly amplified or deterred by the presence of retired generals in key roles. Further, the pattern continued in the second half of the ad- ministration when “true” civilians filled these billets. Whether longer-term damage was done, however, remains unresolved. ***** he presidency of Donald Trump served as a natural experiment, testing many of the long- debated precepts of the civil-military relations (CMR) literature. His postelection interviewing of Tmore than a half dozen recently retired four- star officers for senior posts in his administration unleashed a torrent of columns pointing to the dangers of further militarization of US foreign policy and damage to the military as a nonpartisan institution. At the same time, many argued that these men were uniquely qualified to rein in Trump’s worst pro- clivities. With Trump’s tenure over, we can begin to evaluate these claims. -
Ngo Insecurity in High-Risk Conflict Zones: the Politicization of Aid and Its Impact on “Humanitarian Space”
NGO INSECURITY IN HIGH-RISK CONFLICT ZONES: THE POLITICIZATION OF AID AND ITS IMPACT ON “HUMANITARIAN SPACE” by JOHN “DAVID” F. MITCHELL B.A., George Mason University, 2008 M.S., George Mason University, 2010 AN ABSTRACT OF A DISSERTATION submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Security Studies College of Arts and Sciences KANSAS STATE UNIVERSITY Manhattan, Kansas 2016 Abstract Attacks against nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) in high-risk conflict zones have increased exponentially over the last two decades. However, the few existing empirical studies on NGO insecurity have tended to focus on external factors influencing attacks, with little attention paid to the actions of aid workers themselves. To fill this gap, this dissertation theorizes that aid workers may have contributed to their own insecurity by engaging in greater political action. Both quantitative and qualitative methods are used to assess the impact of political activity by NGOs on the insecurity of aid workers. The quantitative analyses test the theory at two levels. The first is a large-N country-level analysis of 117 nations from 1999 to 2015 using panel corrected standard errors. The second is a subnational-level statistical analysis of four case studies: Afghanistan, Iraq, Somalia, and Colombia from 2000 to 2014. Both the country- and provincial- level analyses show that the magnitude of aid tends to be a significant determinant of aid worker security. The qualitative methods of “structured-focused comparison” and “process tracing” are used to analyze the four cases. Results show that aid workers are most likely to be victims of politically-motivated attacks while in-transit. -
Global Trends 2025: a Transformed World
This page left intentionally blank. Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, US Government Printing Office Internet: bookstore.gpo.gov Phone: toll free (866) 512-1800; DC area (202) 512-1800; Fax: (202) 512-2104; Mail: Stop IDCC, Washington DC 20402-0001 ISBN 978-0-16-081834-9 To view electronic version: www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_2025_project.html November 2008 NIC 2008-003 We prepared Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World to stimulate strategic thinking about the future by identifying key trends, the factors that drive them, where they seem to be headed, and how they might interact. It uses scenarios to illustrate some of the many ways in which the drivers examined in the study (e.g., globalization, demography, the rise of new powers, the decay of international institutions, climate change, and the geopolitics of energy) may interact to generate challenges and opportunities for future decisionmakers. The study as a whole is more a description of the factors likely to shape events than a prediction of what will actually happen. By examining a small number of variables that we judge probably will have a disproportionate influence on future events and possibilities, the study seeks to help readers to recognize signposts indicating where events are headed and to identify opportunities for policy intervention to change or lock in the trajectories of specific developments. Among the messages we hope to convey are: “If you like where events seem to be headed, you may want to take timely action to preserve their positive trajectory. If you do not like where they appear to be going, you will have to develop and implement policies to change their trajectory.” For example, the report’s examination of the transition out of dependence on fossil fuels illustrates how different trajectories will entail different consequences for specific countries. -
Macrotrends and Disruptions Shaping 2020-2030Vision 2050 Issue Brief Contents Context | 3
Macrotrends and Disruptions shaping 2020-2030Vision 2050 issue brief Contents Context | 3 Macrotrends & Disruptions | 5 1 Macrotrends | 6 Demographics | 7 Environment | 8 Economics | 9 Technology | 10 Politics | 12 Culture | 13 2 High-level implications of the macrotrends | 14 3 Disruptions | 16 Conclusion | 22 Context a dynamic operating environment. the decade. It is powerfully In 2010, the World This means thinking about all the demonstrating the profound, Business Council pressures that shape the world wide-ranging – and, more for Sustainable we live in, and that business often than not, long-lasting Development (WBCSD) operates in, from demographics – consequences that such and economics, to technology and disruptions can have. released Vision 2050, a politics. WBCSD partnered with landmark piece of work Volans to explore the world that COVID-19 has triggered multiple that laid out a pathway lies ahead of us. A comprehensive disruptive shocks and accelerated research paper is available as a many of the macrotrends that we to a world in which nine had identified. It has made certain billion people are able to companion piece to this issue brief, offering the evidence behind things more likely and others less live well, within planetary our attempt here to summarize likely. With both the public health boundaries, by the macrotrends and potential crisis and the linked economic mid-century. disruptions likely to shape that turmoil still unfolding, there operating environment over the remains a high level of uncertainty In 2019, WBCSD decided to decade ahead. about what the full ramifications revisit its Vision 2050 work – 10 of COVID-19 will be for the decade years on, there has not been as As with any look into the future, ahead.