FlightGlobal.com May 2021 How Max cuts hurt Boeing backlog Making throwaway Feeling aircraft aff ordable p32 Hydrogen switch for Fresson’s Islander p34 supersonic Will Overture be in tune with demand? p52 9 770015 371327 £4.99 Big worries Warning sign We assess A380 Why NOTAM outlook as last burden can delivery looms baffl e pilots 05 p14 p22 Comment Prospects receding Future dreaming Once thought of as the future of air travel, the A380 is already heading into retirement, but aviation is keenly focused on the next big thing Airbus t has been a rapid rise and fall for on who you ask. As we report else- Hydrogen is not without its the Airbus A380, which not so where in this issue, there are those issues, of course, but nonethe- long ago was being hailed as the banking on supersonic speeds be- less it appears more feasible as a future of long-haul air travel. ing the answer. power source for large transport IThe superjumbo would be, The likes of Aerion and Boom Su- aircraft than batteries do at pres- forecasts said, the perfect tool for personic view the ability to shave ent, even allowing for improving airlines operating into mega-hubs significant time from journeys as a energy densities. such as Dubai that were beginning unique selling point. However, there are others who to spring up. While projects are likely to be see hydrogen through a differ- But the planners at Airbus failed technologically feasible, to be able ent filter. They argue that so- to take into consideration the to sell these new aircraft in signif- called sub-regional aircraft – the efficiency gains available from icant volumes their manufacturers Britten-Norman Islander, among a new generation of widebody will have to ensure that supersonic others – can be given fresh impetus twinjets that allowed operators to flight is not merely the domain of if a fuel source can be found that is open up previously uneconomical the ultra-rich. both cheap and non-polluting. point-to-point routes. Although it would be an enor- In theory, such aircraft could While the A380 limped on with mous stretch to imagine an Easy- link towns or cities current- flagging sales – ultimately forcing Jet-operated supersonic jet, they ly under-served by any mode of Airbus to axe the programme – it must be sufficiently cost-effective transport, or provide a more sus- was assumed that the in-service to appeal to an audience wider tainable lifeline to island communi- fleet would continue flying for than a handful of niche operators. ties (who may also be able to pro- decades to come. Moreover, as aviation’s envi- duce their own hydrogen through Then Covid-19 intervened and air- ronmental performance faces use of two abundant natural re- lines reassessed their attachment ever-closer scrutiny, those super- sources: wind and waves). to the double-decker. Outside the sonic jets will have to be as green At this early stage of develop- fleets of a handful of operators – as possible to avoid any backlash. ment it is hard to say who will British Airways, Emirates and Qan- Elsewhere, though, the prospect succeed, but what is clear is that tas, for example – the A380 is unlike- of a cleaner air transport industry is aviation is on the cusp of a radical ly to make much of a reappearance the raison d’etre of other develop- change where new technologies in the post-pandemic world. ments. For many of these, hydro- could prove more disruptive than What, then, is the future of air gen is seen as the fuel that enables ever the A380 was. ◗ transport? Clearly, that depends that sustainable future. See p14, p52 May 2021 Flight International 3 In focus How pandemic reversed The learning power of PISA 18 Cost war of attrition 32 decade of growth 6 ICAO targets data overload 22 Fresson takes new direction 34 Mixed times for 737 Max 8 Canada backs Airbus tanker 24 Airbus warms to cryogenics 36 Electric Beaver charges on 10 US Army’s FLRAA plans 25 BA zeroes in on hydrogen 38 Taiwan feels the pressure 12 United sets diversity target 26 Opinion: A powerful change 39 Demise of double-decker 14 Renewed authority at CAA 28 View from the cockpit 41 52 Boom time Virgin Galactic’s delta-wing civil jet will be capable of Mach 3.0 34 Boom Supersonic Regulars Comment 3 Best of the rest 42 Straight & Level 74 Letters 76 Jobs 81 Women in aviation 82 4 Flight International May 2021 Contents In depth Open for business 46 Upwardly mobile 58 Sustainable strategy 65 Covid-19 has buff eted private The prospect of eVTOL aircraft The business aviation sector aviation more lightly than its carrying passengers above is embracing alternative fuels commercial cousin crowded cities is drawing near King Lear’s long reign 70 Upping the pace 52 In pole position 62 Looking back at Learjet’s Are we ready for the return of Can the F1 factor give start-up six decades of style, speed supersonic passenger services? Vertical Aerospace an edge? and sexiness 58 65 70 May 2021 Flight International 5 Visit FlightGlobal Premium for all the latest aviation news and insight FlightGlobal.com How Covid-19 pandemic reversed decade of growth The collapse in demand for air travel caused by crisis has inevitably hit the orderbooks of Airbus and Boeing AirTeamImages Jon Hemmerdinger Tampa But despite the diff erences in David Kaminski-Morrow London presentation, the impact of the pandemic is clear. 20,315 Airbus’s order total had risen nalysis of the big two each year by an average of over Total orders for Airbus – a drop of 83 airframers’ backlog data 1,000 aircraft from the end of March since March 2020: 210 cancellations over the year since the 2011 to the end of March 2020, the partly off set by 127 new orders onset of the air trans- point at which the pandemic start- Aport crisis shows overall orders ed to generate serious disruption declined during the period – an to international air travel. from the A320neo, whose order extraordinary contrast to their But its latest backlog data shows level fell by 98. strong annual performances over that in the subsequent 12 months, The A220-300 also generated a the previous decade. to the end of March 2021, order ac- small net gain in orders over the Airbus’s total orders fell by 83, to tivity not only stopped its upward 12-month period. 20,315, while Boeing – which spent surge but actually reversed, with Analysis of the main cancellations until November last year also wres- the overall order total slipping from shows 88 are attributed to Scandi- tling with the grounding of the 737 20,398 to 20,315. navian budget carrier Norwegian, 17 Max – saw its total orders fall by to lessor BOC Aviation, 10 to each around 800 aircraft. Reduced demand of AirAsia X and Gulf Air, and six for It is tricky to make a perfect This reduction of 83 aircraft re- Turkish Airlines, while another 56 like-for-like comparison between sulted from 210 cancellations be- were classifi ed as undisclosed. the two manufacturers due to dif- ing only being partly off set by 127 Chinese operators and lessors ferences in the way they present additional orders. had a strong presence among cus- their order and delivery data on a Total long-haul aircraft orders tomers whose orders increased monthly basis. For Boeing we have were down by 26 – comprising over the year. instead relied on its stock market 17 A350s and nine A330s – while Eleven Chinese carriers – among fi lings, the most recent of which those for short-haul jets fell by 57. them Air China, China Eastern provides only approximate totals. But the performance of individ- Airlines, China Southern Airlines, It also only includes fi gures for its ual models in the short-haul range Qingdao Airlines, Shenzhen Air- in-production aircraft, leading to varied. The A321neo, which has lines and Sichuan Airlines – plus an overall order total lower than proven a popular variant, increased lessors Bocomm, CMB Leasing that of its rival, even though it has its net total by 46 aircraft – possi- and ICBC Leasing, are all listed been in existence much longer. bly aided by upward conversions with higher order fi gures. 6 Flight International May 2021 Airframers Backlogs Meanwhile, on the other side of Of the 1,200 jets removed from the Atlantic, Boeing’s total aircraft Boeing’s backlog over the past year, orders tumbled by roughly 800 more than 1,000 were for 737 Max jets over the last 12 months. aircraft, data shows: about 640 can- The backlog losses refl ect a pile cellations and more than 400 nega- of cancellations only partly off set tive accounting adjustments. by far fewer orders. Customers across the spectrum At the end of March, Boeing’s have axed deals for the narrow- total orders stood at about 17,000 body over the last 12 months. aircraft, including 4,054 in its Major carriers like Air Canada, backlog. That is down from the Copa Airlines, Virgin Australia and 17,835 total orders, including 5,049 WestJet scrubbed orders. More in the backlog, that Boeing held at recently, Turkish Airlines cancelled the end of March 2020, company 50 Max orders, converting 40 of data shows. them into purchase options. Un- certainty about Norwegian’s future Uncompleted sales led Boeing to shift a portion of its The decline over the past 12 months 92 Max orders into the ASC-606 refl ects the removal of fi rm orders accounting category.