FlightGlobal.com May 2021

How Max cuts hurt Boeing backlog

Making throwaway Feeling aircraft aff ordable p32 Hydrogen switch for supersonic Fresson’s Islander p34

Will Overture be in tune with demand? p52 371327 770015 9 £4.99

Big worries Warning sign We assess A380 Why NOTAM outlook as last burden can delivery looms baffl e pilots 05 p14 p22

Comment

Prospects receding Future dreaming Once thought of as the future of air travel, the A380 is already heading into retirement, but aviation is keenly focused on the next big thing Airbus

t has been a rapid rise and fall for on who you ask. As we report else- Hydrogen is not without its the Airbus A380, which not so where in this issue, there are those issues, of course, but nonethe- long ago was being hailed as the banking on supersonic speeds be- less it appears more feasible as a future of long-haul air travel. ing the answer. power source for large transport IThe superjumbo would be, The likes of Aerion and Boom Su- aircraft than batteries do at pres- forecasts said, the perfect tool for personic view the ability to shave ent, even allowing for improving airlines operating into mega-hubs significant time from journeys as a energy densities. such as Dubai that were beginning unique selling point. However, there are others who to spring up. While projects are likely to be see hydrogen through a differ- But the planners at Airbus failed technologically feasible, to be able ent filter. They argue that so- to take into consideration the to sell these new aircraft in signif- called sub-regional aircraft – the efficiency gains available from icant volumes their manufacturers Britten-Norman Islander, among a new generation of widebody will have to ensure that supersonic others – can be given fresh impetus twinjets that allowed operators to flight is not merely the domain of if a fuel source can be found that is open up previously uneconomical the ultra-rich. both cheap and non-polluting. point-to-point routes. Although it would be an enor- In theory, such aircraft could While the A380 limped on with mous stretch to imagine an Easy- link towns or cities current- flagging sales – ultimately forcing Jet-operated supersonic jet, they ly under-served by any mode of Airbus to axe the programme – it must be sufficiently cost-effective transport, or provide a more sus- was assumed that the in-service to appeal to an audience wider tainable lifeline to island communi- fleet would continue flying for than a handful of niche operators. ties (who may also be able to pro- decades to come. Moreover, as aviation’s envi- duce their own hydrogen through Then Covid-19 intervened and air- ronmental performance faces use of two abundant natural re- lines reassessed their attachment ever-closer scrutiny, those super- sources: wind and waves). to the double-decker. Outside the sonic jets will have to be as green At this early stage of develop- fleets of a handful of operators – as possible to avoid any backlash. ment it is hard to say who will British Airways, Emirates and Qan- Elsewhere, though, the prospect succeed, but what is clear is that tas, for example – the A380 is unlike- of a cleaner air transport industry is aviation is on the cusp of a radical ly to make much of a reappearance the raison d’etre of other develop- change where new technologies in the post-pandemic world. ments. For many of these, hydro- could prove more disruptive than What, then, is the future of air gen is seen as the fuel that enables ever the A380 was. ◗ transport? Clearly, that depends that sustainable future. See p14, p52

May 2021 Flight International 3 In focus How pandemic reversed The learning power of PISA 18 Cost war of attrition 32 decade of growth 6 ICAO targets data overload 22 Fresson takes new direction 34 Mixed times for 737 Max 8 Canada backs Airbus tanker 24 Airbus warms to cryogenics 36 Electric Beaver charges on 10 US Army’s FLRAA plans 25 BA zeroes in on hydrogen 38 Taiwan feels the pressure 12 United sets diversity target 26 Opinion: A powerful change 39 Demise of double-decker 14 Renewed authority at CAA 28 View from the cockpit 41 52

Boom time Virgin Galactic’s delta-wing civil jet will be capable of Mach 3.0 34 Boom Supersonic

Regulars Comment 3 Best of the rest 42 Straight & Level 74 Letters 76 Jobs 81 Women in aviation 82

4 Flight International May 2021 Contents

In depth Open for business 46 Upwardly mobile 58 Sustainable strategy 65 Covid-19 has buff eted private The prospect of eVTOL aircraft The business aviation sector aviation more lightly than its carrying passengers above is embracing alternative fuels commercial cousin crowded cities is drawing near King Lear’s long reign 70 Upping the pace 52 In pole position 62 Looking back at Learjet’s Are we ready for the return of Can the F1 factor give start-up six decades of style, speed supersonic passenger services? Vertical Aerospace an edge? and sexiness 58

65 70

May 2021 Flight International 5 Visit FlightGlobal Premium for all the latest aviation news and insight FlightGlobal.com

How Covid-19 pandemic reversed decade of growth The collapse in demand for air travel caused by crisis has inevitably hit the orderbooks of Airbus and Boeing AirTeamImages

Jon Hemmerdinger Tampa But despite the diff erences in David Kaminski-Morrow London presentation, the impact of the pandemic is clear. 20,315 Airbus’s order total had risen nalysis of the big two each year by an average of over Total orders for Airbus – a drop of 83 airframers’ backlog data 1,000 aircraft from the end of March since March 2020: 210 cancellations over the year since the 2011 to the end of March 2020, the partly off set by 127 new orders onset of the air trans- point at which the pandemic start- Aport crisis shows overall orders ed to generate serious disruption declined during the period – an to international air travel. from the A320neo, whose order extraordinary contrast to their But its latest backlog data shows level fell by 98. strong annual performances over that in the subsequent 12 months, The A220-300 also generated a the previous decade. to the end of March 2021, order ac- small net gain in orders over the Airbus’s total orders fell by 83, to tivity not only stopped its upward 12-month period. 20,315, while Boeing – which spent surge but actually reversed, with Analysis of the main cancellations until November last year also wres- the overall order total slipping from shows 88 are attributed to Scandi- tling with the grounding of the 737 20,398 to 20,315. navian budget carrier Norwegian, 17 Max – saw its total orders fall by to lessor BOC Aviation, 10 to each around 800 aircraft. Reduced demand of AirAsia X and Gulf Air, and six for It is tricky to make a perfect This reduction of 83 aircraft re- Turkish Airlines, while another 56 like-for-like comparison between sulted from 210 cancellations be- were classifi ed as undisclosed. the two manufacturers due to dif- ing only being partly off set by 127 Chinese operators and lessors ferences in the way they present additional orders. had a strong presence among cus- their order and delivery data on a Total long-haul aircraft orders tomers whose orders increased monthly basis. For Boeing we have were down by 26 – comprising over the year. instead relied on its stock market 17 A350s and nine A330s – while Eleven Chinese carriers – among fi lings, the most recent of which those for short-haul jets fell by 57. them Air China, China Eastern provides only approximate totals. But the performance of individ- Airlines, China Southern Airlines, It also only includes fi gures for its ual models in the short-haul range Qingdao Airlines, Shenzhen Air- in-production aircraft, leading to varied. The A321neo, which has lines and Sichuan Airlines – plus an overall order total lower than proven a popular variant, increased lessors Bocomm, CMB Leasing that of its rival, even though it has its net total by 46 aircraft – possi- and ICBC Leasing, are all listed been in existence much longer. bly aided by upward conversions with higher order fi gures.

6 Flight International May 2021 Airframers Backlogs

Meanwhile, on the other side of Of the 1,200 jets removed from the Atlantic, Boeing’s total aircraft Boeing’s backlog over the past year, orders tumbled by roughly 800 more than 1,000 were for 737 Max jets over the last 12 months. aircraft, data shows: about 640 can- The backlog losses refl ect a pile cellations and more than 400 nega- of cancellations only partly off set tive accounting adjustments. by far fewer orders. Customers across the spectrum At the end of March, Boeing’s have axed deals for the narrow- total orders stood at about 17,000 body over the last 12 months. aircraft, including 4,054 in its Major carriers like Air Canada, backlog. That is down from the Copa Airlines, Virgin Australia and 17,835 total orders, including 5,049 WestJet scrubbed orders. More in the backlog, that Boeing held at recently, Turkish Airlines cancelled the end of March 2020, company 50 Max orders, converting 40 of data shows. them into purchase options. Un- certainty about Norwegian’s future Uncompleted sales led Boeing to shift a portion of its The decline over the past 12 months 92 Max orders into the ASC-606 refl ects the removal of fi rm orders accounting category. for about 1,200 jets, including 670 Lessors including AerCap, Air cancellations and another 550 air- Lease, Aviation Capital Group, Avo- craft that Boeing shifted from its lon, BOC Aviation, CDB Aviation, backlog into an accounting bucket GE Capital Aviation Services and reserved for sales that it suspects SMBC Aviation Capital have also will not close. cancelled deals for the Max. Boeing partly off set those loss- es with new orders for 417 aircraft during the last year. The backlog slide contrasts sharp- 1,200 Robust cargo demand has driven ly with Boeing’s stream of sales continued interest in 747-8F successes in the decade preceding the March 2019 737 Max grounding. Jets removed from Boeing’s backlog Total orders nearly doubled from over the past year – more than 1,000 9,597 at the end of 2008, to 18,229 of these represented by the 737 Max The airframer has been man- at the end of 2018, equating to an aging the impact of the pandem- average annual gain of some 860 ic by cutting its production rates orders, regulatory fi lings show. Boeing’s widebody orders have and working to negotiate deferred Meanwhile, Boeing continued also suff ered amid a pandemic that deliveries to customers – and chief ramping up production of the has had an outsized impact on in- executive Guillaume Faury has 737 Max, hitting a high of 52 jets ternational long-haul travel. pointed out that the company has monthly in 2018. Widebodies accounted for about experienced only a “low number” All that changed when an Ethi- 140 of the 1,200 aircraft erased of cancellations. opian Airlines 737 Max crashed from Boeing’s books since March Airbus’s total order fi gure of shortly after take-off in March 2019 2020, data shows. Of those, about 20,315 at the end of March 2021 – the second accident involving 30 are cancellations and the bal- was just over double the level of the type. The regulatory grounding ance are accounting adjustments. 10,061 recorded 10 years earlier in that ensued would last 20 months, The company has, however, off - March 2011. until November 2020. set a large part of those losses with new orders. Boeing’s net orders for the 767 increased by 36 aircraft over the last year, likewise, net 747 orders increased by fi ve aircraft dur- ing the last 12 months. The gains on both programmes come amid comparatively strong demand for cargo jets. The 777 programme slipped by 67 and the 787 declined by 47 aircraft across the same period, data shows. The 787 has suff ered the addi- tional pressure of quality issues that became known in 2020 and Airbus which led Boeing to halt Dream- Norwegian was responsible for liner deliveries between November 88 of Airbus’s cancellations 2020 and March this year. ◗

May 2021 Flight International 7 Visit FlightGlobal Premium for all the latest aviation news and insight FlightGlobal.com

Two steps forward, one step Max Boeing’s rehabilitation of its troubled narrowbody is gathering pace, but the process has not been without setbacks

And in another example of how Graham Dunn London the 737 Max’s troubles are not yet completely behind it, Boe- ing in April recommended that fter a traumatic two years some airlines remove a subset of for Boeing and its 737 the twinjet from service pending Max programme, some of maintenance related to an un- the airframer’s top cus- specified back-up power control Atomers have signed up for hun- system (see below). dreds more of the narrowbodies, The news came as Boeing at- delivering key endorsements as tempted to shift the narrative away US carriers have been at the forefront the type returns to service. from the jet’s earlier woes, caused of returning the Max to service Notably, Southwest Airlines’ by a pair of fatal crashes. decision, disclosed on 29 March, to replace 737-700s with 100 737 Gol followers Max 7s came after follow-on Max A string of airlines have now regulators there, in late January, orders from key customers Ryanair returned the Max to service, fol- cleared the type. TUI Airlines be- and United Airlines. lowing Brazilian carrier Gol, which came the first European carrier to But a further batch of Max order in December 2020 became the first restore Max service, in February, cancellations in March – including operator to restore commercial followed in March by Icelandair, Turkish Airlines (50) and lessors flights with the type. Czech carrier Smartwings and LOT CDB Aviation (16) and China Globally, about 170 Max are back Polish Airlines. Aircraft Leasing (26) – again high- in the skies, with airlines holding Romanian budget carrier Blue lights the faltering nature of the another roughly 300 in storage, Air, meanwhile, became a new Max recovery for both the jet itself and Cirium data shows. customer at the start of April after the wider industry. While operators in North and taking delivery of the first of 10 of In all, Boeing took in 196 orders in Latin America have led the charge, the type from Air Lease. March, offset by 156 cancellations – Euro pean carriers too are re- Ryanair too will shortly become the vast majority for the Max. turning the Max to service, after a new Max operator in Europe,

Deliveries stay steady, but fresh safety issue drives more jets into storage

Jon Hemmerdinger Tampa In October 2020, the US production lines in recent airframer said the company months, but more than 80 aimed to deliver about half examples completed first flight Boeing has delivered almost of those stored aircraft before the during the grounding period, 90 737 Max since US regulators end of 2021, and the “majority” of making them part of the lifted the type’s grounding the remainder in 2022. 450-strong inventory. last November, putting the The US Federal Aviation US carriers Alaska Airlines, airframer on track reach its goal Administration lifted the American Airlines, Southwest of delivering half those jets by grounding in November 2020, Airlines and United Airlines have year-end. with other regulators following in received the vast majority of Production of the 737 Max subsequent months. recent Max deliveries – 67 jets, continued during much of Boeing resumed 737 Max according to Cirium data. the period that the type was deliveries in December, handing Boeing has also, since late last grounded, resulting in a total of over 27 of the jets that month. year, delivered Max aircraft to around 450 undelivered aircraft Another 62 have followed this airlines in Canada, Latin America by the time the US regulator had year, up to 20 April. and Europe, data shows. re-certificated the narrowbody Some of those aircraft But all the 89 Max that Boeing for its operational return. might have rolled off Boeing’s has delivered since December are

8 Flight International May 2021 737 Max Return

Neither has there been apparent movement by two European cus- tomers to firm Max order commit- ments made during the grounding. Those orders include Air Astana’s deal to acquire 30 Max for its low- cost unit, FlyArystan, and IAG’s headline-stealing letter of intent, revealed during the 2019 Paris air show, to buy 200 Max. Recovery has also been slower in the Asia-Pacific region, home to more than 20 Max operators before the grounding. In late February, Australia be- came the first country in the region to lift the Max’s grounding. Days later, New Zealand followed suit, though it stopped short of a blan- ket approval.

Next steps While no Australian carrier current- ly operates 737 Max, two foreign carriers – Singapore Airlines (SIA) unit SilkAir and Fiji Airways – had

AirTeamImages previously flown the type into the country. Fiji lifted its grounding in early April. having been on the verge of taking Though Singapore authorities its first Max when the aircraft was 100 have not cleared the Max for com- grounded in March 2019. mercial flights, SIA is preparing The Irish carrier expects to for the type’s return. The carrier – operate 16 737 Max 8-200s – a Order for 737 Max 7s placed by which has been integrating region- high-density variant of the Max 8 – Southwest Airlines in March al unit SilkAir into its mainline op- by the peak summer travel season. eration – in March began shuttling That goal moved closer when the its six 737 Max back home from European regulator in early April Aviation Administration lifted the storage in Australia, as a cabin approved the variant. grounding, Ryanair firmed orders retro fit programme gets under way Ryanair chief executive Michael for 75 Max, bringing its total com- for the type. O’Leary has been a vocal propo- mitment to 210. Crucially, the Max remains nent of the narrowbody: in Decem- Boeing may have secured the grounded in China, which was the ber, shortly after the US Federal Max’s place with Ryanair, but the first country to ban flights of the troubled state of the wider air- narrowbody. China’s civil aviation line sector has raised uncertainty regulator has said that it has been about its future with other Euro- discussing with Boeing a plan to pean carriers. restore 737 Max services, but has Chief among those is Norwegian not presented a timeline for any in storage with airline customers, which, prior to the grounding, op- such move. Cirium shows. erated 18 of the jets – more than China is a huge market for the While many of those are parked any other European airline. But single-aisle: at the time of the owing to current low levels of Norwegian has since embarked Max grounding, 12 Chinese oper- demand, even where jets had on a major restructuring, ditching ators had nearly 100 of the jets in been returned to service – for long-haul operations. It does not service, with another 200 orders, example, those aircraft operated plan to use Max aircraft as part of Cirium data shows. by American, Southwest and its initial operational ramp-up and Aside from China, two other United – a subsequent safety has not commented on plans be- notable hold-outs in Asia are India issue identified in early April yond the summer. and Indonesia, although the former related to a back-up power Last year, the carrier said it was has now permitted overflights with control unit has seen the aircraft cancelling 92 Max orders. Boeing the type. Globally, more than 160 pulled from flights for inspection has not actually removed those out of 195 civil aviation regulators and potential modification. from its books but has shifted an have opened their airspace to the The problem relates to 737 Max undisclosed number into a special Max, Boeing says. that have been delivered recently, accounting bucket – known as rather than those shipped before ASC-606 – that is reserved for Additional reporting by the grounding. sales over which there is signifi- Alfred Chua in Singapore and cant uncertainty. Jon Hemmerdinger in Tampa

May 2021 Flight International 9 Programme Propulsion

Electric Beaver charges ahead Partners Harbour Air and Magnix team up with Swiss battery developer H55 to advance DHC-2 electrification programme

Jon Hemmerdinger Tampa

wiss battery company H55 has been recruited by Harbour Air and Magnix in an effort to develop and cer- Stificate an all-electric De Havilland Canada DHC-2 Beaver seaplane. The project is already well under way, with Harbour Air, a Canadian commuter airline based near Van- couver, having flown a demonstra- tor all-electric Beaver for the first time in late 2019. That aircraft is Harbour Air/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock powered by Magnix’s Magni500 Demonstrator made its first flight electric propulsion system. near Vancouver in December 2019 Now, Harbour Air and Magnix, which has offices in Seattle, have enlisted H55 – a spin-off from the “We have been attracted by Har- Harbour Air sidelined one of its Solar Impulse project – to provide a bour Air and Magnix’s vision, pio- Beaver seaplanes several years ago battery system and other technolo- neering spirit and commitment to for the project. The six-passenger gies for their electric Beaver. make aviation clean,” Borschberg aircraft’s Pratt & Whitney P-985 The trio intend to “certify the says. “The path to electric aviation Wasp Junior piston engine was re- world’s first electric Beaver com- is complicated. But, at the same placed with the 750hp Magni500. muter airplane through a sup- time, by joining forces our com- The Magnix-powered Beaver plemental type certificate pro- bined experience will lead to quick- made its first flight on 10 Decem- gramme”, they said on 20 April. er certification.” ber 2019, lifting off from the Fraser “The companies will collaborate H55 has developed a “single- River near Vancouver. That event together with Transport Canada engine battery pack system” de- was, according to Harbour, the to certify the installation of the signed to power small aircraft. first flight of an all-electric com- Magnix electric propulsion unit The pack has energy capacity of mercial aircraft. and the H55 enhanced battery sys- 50kWh, produces 67hp (100kW) The team has since conducted tem, transforming Harbour Air’s of maximum power, has 90min “additional flight tests to measure seaplanes into an all-electric com- endurance and can be charged in and collect data on cruise perfor- mercial fleet.” 1h, the company says. mance and take-off thrust efficien- It is currently unclear whether the cy, electro-magnetic interference, addition of H55 to the team means Bristell fashion battery management software log- changes to the demonstrator’s H55 has integrated a battery system ic, noise levels and more”. systems or configuration and the into a two-seat Bristell B23 Energic, As configured early last year, development timeline. The compa- which made its first flight in 2019. the demonstrator Beaver carried nies did not respond to a request It aims to acquire European Union lithium batteries with a power-to- for more information. Aviation Safety Agency design and weight ratio of about 135Wh/kg – a In January 2020, Harbour Air production certifications in 2021, relatively low-power-density sys- chief executive Greg McDougall and to gain a type certificate for its tem, McDougall told FlightGlobal in said he hoped to certificate the battery system by mid-2022. January 2020. electric Beaver within two years, H55 does not specify what sys- He said better lithium batteries possibly less. But he suggested it tem it is planning to develop for could, as of that time, generate up to might need more advanced batter- the Beaver, but it will have to be 235Wh/kg. But, he added, 400Wh/ ies to be commercially viable. larger than that on the B23, due kg cells would likely be available by H55 was launched in 2017 by a to the power requirements of the the time it starts commercial flights three-person team that includes bigger aircraft. with an electric aircraft. Andre Borschberg, who, along “Magnix, Harbour Air and H55 Magnix is involved in a sepa- with Bertrand Piccard, helped will work on design optimisation rate project, alongside Spanish found Solar Impulse, the organisa- for the electric propulsion unit, en- firm Dante Aeronautics, to install tion behind the solar-powered air- ergy storage system and related a Magni500 in a Cessna Caravan craft project. Borschberg is H55’s aircraft systems based on ongoing amphibian operated by Australia’s executive chairman. flight testing,” the companies say. Sydney Seaplanes. ◗

10 Flight International May 2021

Defence Tension Taiwan feels the pressure

Greg Waldron Singapore Fasttailwind/Shutterstock Four J-10s were among group of 25 which neared island on 12 April

Taipei is accustomed to aerial incursions by Chinese military assets, but increased formations are now probing its defences

Greg Waldron Singapore Beijing mounted an even bigger Chinese aircraft, instead of images sortie on 12 April, with four H-6Ks, taken during intercepts. 14 J-16s, four J-10s, one KJ-500 “Assuming the Republic of Chi- ncursions by Chinese military and two anti-submarine Y-8s. How- na Air Force [RoCAF] has indeed assets into Taiwan’s air defence ever, this mission did not repeat stopped intercepting most of these identification zone are nothing the dogleg route around Taiwan’s flights, the decision is smart,” he new, as Beijing continues its ef- southern tip. says. “The RoCAF is never going Iforts to establish a new air power J Michael Cole, Taipei-based sen- to be on the winning end of this paradigm in the region. ior fellow with the Global Taiwan readiness competition, and trying Taipei recorded 380 such inci- Institute in Washington DC, says to keep up with PLA flights would dents in 2020: the highest number that China rapidly increased sor- accomplish little besides the optics since 1996. But if that was a chal- ties in January 2020, following the of defending the homeland – that lenging year, the recent appearance re-election of Taiwanese president is, until they can’t fly anymore be- of two large Chinese formations Tsai Ing-wen. cause their pilots are exhausted, means 2021 looks set to surpass it. “This isn’t solely a reaction by and their aircraft are grounded.” Taiwan’s defence ministry details Beijing to visits by senior US offi- Apart from attempting to cow every incursion, on Twitter, show- cials to Taiwan, but also a demon- Taiwan’s population, the flights also ing the People’s Liberation Army stration to domestic constituents offer a valuable opportunity for Chi- Air Force and People’s Liberation that the Chinese Communist Par- nese pilots to test their skills over Army Navy aircraft involved, the ty is doing something, and that it, water and in a littoral environment. course they flew, and the actions not Taipei, gets to set the tone,” Beijing’s bombastic Global Times taken by its military. This invariably he says. “No doubt this stems in newspaper has a more menacing involves tasking a combat air patrol part out of frustration that Beijing’s take. In a 13 April story about the – generally with Lockheed Martin policy of ‘peaceful unification’ has 25-aircraft mission it stated that the F-16s – issuing radio warnings, and been an abject failure.” exercises are nothing short of a re- having “missile systems deployed hearsal for war – a warning to “Tai- to monitor the activity”. Psychological warfare wan secessionists” and the USA. On 26 March, 20 Chinese com- He adds that the flights can be Despite recent warnings from US bat aircraft flew a southeasterly seen as a form of “psychological admirals about China’s threat to Tai- course from the mainland, with warfare”, calibrated to intimidate wan, war does not seem imminent, several continuing well beyond Tai- Taiwan’s population. Other ana- and mustering the massive forces wan’s southern tip before taking lysts agree that making such flights necessary for an amphibious inva- a north-easterly route, effectively seem commonplace could drive a sion would take time and attract bracketing the island. sense of acceptance, or even com- attention from the USA and Japan. The sortie involved four Xian placency, for example through Tai- Nonetheless, Taiwan defence ana- H-6K bombers, 10 Shenyang J-16 pei deciding against having fight- lyst Kitsch Liao sees the recent sig- and two Chengdu J-10 fighters, ers meet every interloper. nificant incursions as major exercis- supported by a Shaanxi KJ-500 Roderick Lee, research director es that raise the stakes, create more airborne early warning and control at the China Aerospace Studies opportunities for miscalculation, aircraft, two Shaanxi Y-8 anti-sub- Institute, points out that in 2020 and offer no clear path for de-esca- marine warfare aircraft and a single Taiwan’s defence ministry start- lation. “This is going to be increas- Y-8 reconnaissance platform. ed exclusively using file photos of ingly dangerous,” he says. ◗

12 Flight International May 2021

Visit FlightGlobal Premium for all the latest aviation news and insight FlightGlobal.com

Demise of the double-decker As delivery of the final A380 draws near, the question is now how long the superjumbo will remain in service

Lewis Harper London as new-generation widebodies That said, formal decisions to provided network flexibility and remove the type from fleets have superior economics. actually been few and far between lready considered on Exacerbating that fundamental is- since the Covid-19 crisis began. borrowed time at many sue, reduced air travel demand dur- Air France is the only carrier to airlines before the glob- ing the recovery from the Covid-19 have explicitly retired its A380s al pandemic devastated crisis means carriers are likely to since the crisis began, although Ainternational air travel, the Airbus need fewer large aircraft for some Lufthansa has all but condemned A380’s demise has only been ac- time – and the A380 is particularly its 14 superjumbos to never fly celerated by events over the past hard on the balance sheet when its again, without removing them from 12 months. While Emirates is wait- hundreds of seats are not full. future fleet counts. ing for delivery of the final exam- Notably, the German carrier’s ple, other airlines are looking to rid Still grounded plans suggest it will retain its themselves of the double-decker. The vast majority of A380s re- 747-8s – some of which have been Granted, dozens of Boeing 747s mained grounded at the end of kept in service through the pan- are also heading for retirement March 2021, despite Cirium fleets demic – in preference to its simi- sooner than expected, but none data showing that more than 61% larly aged A380s. of those departing -400s could be of the world’s widebody aircraft Thai Airways International, described as young. In contrast, were in service at that point. meanwhile, said on 12 March that the superjumbo’s exit is super- Indeed, of the 233 A380s that were it was gauging market interest for charged: the A380’s exodus from in service on the eve of the Covid-19 two of its six A380s. Middle East- airline fleets is being discussed crisis on 1 January 2020, just 23 were ern carriers Etihad Airways and less than 15 years after its first operating on 31 March 2021. Qatar Airways have also made commercial flight, with many ex- “I think if all A380 operators similarly downbeat forecasts for amples barely reaching double fig- could start over with a blank sheet the return of their superjumbos. ures in terms of age. of paper, none would have the With the recovery of long-haul Issues with the Airbus jet’s utility A380 in their post-pandemic fleet,” international travel expected to beyond a few niche markets were says independent aviation analyst take some years, many carriers will already well established pre-Covid, Brendan Sobie. be tempted to wait out some or all

14 Flight International May 2021 Programme Retirement

persist for the next few years, at The type is therefore “an impor- Delivery to Emirates of the last least: Emirates will continue to op- tant part of our fleet, and at the example to be built is imminent erate by far the largest fleet of the minute our plans are to obviously double-decker. fly [it again]”, he says, without dis- Before the crisis, the Middle cussing a timeline. Eastern carrier operated 115 A380s Pre-crisis, the Oneworld opera- – essentially half of the world’s to- tor’s 12 A380s had been deployed tal. Delivery of the last example to to destinations including Johan- be built is imminent, with the jet in nesburg, Los Angeles, Hong Kong March transferred to Airbus’s Ham- and Singapore. burg site for outfitting. In Strickland’s view, BA’s relative- Emirates president Tim Clark has ly young A380 fleet and its network made it clear that, in his view, the dynamics, notably the number of airline’s pre-pandemic business high-volume routes from London model still holds up. That could Heathrow, mean the superjumbo is mean A380s in Emirates’ colours likely to be useful to the carrier in a well into the 2030s. “niche role”. Qantas, too, has made positive Unclear outlook noises about the prospect of even- Nevertheless, it remains unclear tually flying its A380s again, not- how many of the airline’s A380s ing their utility at slot-constrained will return – and at what speed. airports and the fact that its fleet John Strickland, director of JLS is largely written down. Consulting, notes that “the sheer While the A380’s challenging size and scale” of the carrier’s Du- economics are well documented, bai hub “maximises the number of the superjumbo’s environmental connections it can offer and traffic performance is increasingly weigh- flows which it can manipulate to fill ing against its return. up large amounts of capacity”. Carriers with heightened aware- For Strickland, growth markets – ness of their sustainability are particularly in Asia – and the “very unlikely to see a four-engined su- important” point-to-point traffic perjumbo as the answer to any to and from Dubai mean “Emirates challenges in that regard. has a better opportunity than any Qatar Airways chief executive other carrier to sustain large-scale Akbar Al Baker has been particu-

Airbus A380 fleet capacity”, he says. larly outspoken on the type’s envi- Rob Morris, global head of con- ronmental performance, although sultancy at Ascend by Cirium, says perhaps with one eye on the fleet of that period without their A380s, although it is “too early” to tell make-up of rival Emirates. while allowing newer and/or small- whether Emirates can rebuild its er twin-engined types to pick up network and volume, “it is already Environmental concerns the slack. clear that even if they are able to In July 2020, Qatar Airways re- “A look at the order books of erst- do so, there will be fewer A380s leased analysis showing that its while A380 operators gives a hint of within the network since there A380s emitted 95% more carbon what is to come – most operators will likely be some permanent loss dioxide (CO2) per block-hour on its are betting on the Boeing 777-8/9, of demand and thus fewer routes Melbourne, New York and Toronto 787 and Airbus A350 to power their which can support the very largest routes than its A350s, and an aver- future long-haul networks,” says aircraft in their fleet.” age of 80% more across all services. Arvind Chandrasekhar, associate Despite those challenges, it is He describes the A380 as “one partner at Lufthansa Consulting. not just Emirates making positive of the worst aircraft, when it “Many already have the 777-300ER noises about the A380’s role in the comes to emissions, that is flying in their fleets, which can take on the coming years. around today”. role of long-haul workhorse.” British Airways chief executive Al Baker’s assessment reflects As this plays out, one of the Sean Doyle said earlier this year the fact that the A380 belongs dominant features of the A380’s that the A380 “works very well in a in the same class as several old- existence pre-Covid looks likely to number of larger markets”. er-generation types when it comes to CO2 emissions. Richard Evans, senior consultant “I think if all A380 operators could at Ascend by Cirium, points out that the A380’s fuel burn and CO2 emis- start over with a blank sheet of sions are “in the same class as the 777-300ER, 747-8 or A340-600” in paper, none would have the A380 terms of CO2 per revenue passen- ger kilometre (RPK), based on the in their post-pandemic fleet” current average seat count of 501. Newer twinjets such as the Brendan Sobie Independent aviation analyst A330neo, A350 and 787 have

May 2021 Flight International 15 Programme Retirement

“roughly 15-25% lower emissions per RPK”, he says. CO2 perfor- mance is even worse when the effects of the A380’s poor cargo capacity versus its widebody rivals are factored in, he adds. Of the chances for further sec- ond-hand sales – beyond Portu- guese wet-lease specialist Hi Fly’s now ended foray – most analysts suggest that opportunities will be few and far between. The high cost of refitting the superjumbo was already known, but that factor gains additional emphasis as the post-pandemic passenger mix shifts away from business-class travel and towards leisure markets. Rather than returning to service Thai Airways is likely to remove the type from its fleet

with other carriers, Sobie reckons Phuong D Nguyen/Shutterstock most retired airframes are likely to end up as spare parts. In or out? The status of the world’s A380s “There will be a lot of aircraft parted out, which will help support ● Air France (nine A380s in pre-pandemic fleet): The carrier the remaining fleet and perhaps announced in May 2020 that it would retire its A380s immediately, make it a bit less expensive for the rather than in 2022 as previously scheduled. likes of Emirates, [Singapore Air- ● ANA (two): The operator took delivery of its third and final A380 in lines] and Qantas to operate the October last year and immediately placed it into storage. A380,” he states. ● Asiana Airlines (six): With the Star Alliance carrier in the process of merging with compatriot Korean Air, details on future fleet plans Secondary market have been vague. Morris notes that he had always ● British Airways (12): Chief executive Sean Doyle says the type has a believed “the secondary market future with the Oneworld carrier, with no retirements announced. for such a large aircraft as the ● China Southern Airlines (five): The carrier is one of the few to have A380 would be extremely chal- used A380s during the pandemic, largely on infrequent domestic and lenging”, with few aircraft expect- international services. But in mid-April, an executive noted: “Maybe ed to serve with carriers beyond it’s too large for the routes, and the operating cost is very high.” the initial operators. ● Emirates (115): President Tim Clark says the type will play a key role What was not expected, howev- in the airline’s fleet for some time. er, was the “dramatic demand dis- ● Etihad Airways (10): Chief executive Tony Douglas was quoted in location” that is causing airlines to UAE media in early March as saying it was “very likely that we won't remove aircraft from their opera- see [A380s] operating with Etihad again”. tional fleets early. ● Hi Fly (one): The Portuguese wet-lease operator withdrew its Morris continues: “Curiously, the former Singapore Airlines A380 from service in mid-December 2020, pandemic may in the fullness of after less than three years of use. time permit a few aircraft to transi- ● Lufthansa (14): The German carrier has not explicitly said its tion, since A380 values have been A380s will not fly again, but has repeatedly downplayed the type’s driven down so quickly. chances of a return. “This may mean that in a ● Korean Air (10): See Asiana. post-pandemic world the few ● Malaysia Airlines (six): The carrier’s plans for its superjumbo fleet operators who can support such have been in limbo for years amid continued financial strife. large aircraft in their network may ● Qantas (12): Chief executive Alan Joyce has said the type is likely see opportunities to acquire the to fly in Qantas colours once a recovery in international markets is aircraft at a very low price, and sufficiently advanced. then complete reconfiguration ● Qatar Airways (10): The Oneworld carrier’s chief executive Akbar Al and maintenance.” Baker has indicated that the operator will retain half of its A380s, but According to Chandrasekhar, the that even those are unlikely to fly for several years. A380s that survive the Covid-19 ● Singapore Airlines (19): The Star Alliance carrier said in November crisis will be reduced to operating last year that seven of its 19 A380s would not return to service. It later “some service on selected routes confirmed that a cabin upgrade programme would continue for the over the rest of this decade as four aircraft in its remaining fleet of 12 jets that were yet to gain the global air traffic recovers”. new configuration. But he concludes: “A decade ● Thai Airways International (six): Reports suggest a wider from now, we may see more A380s restructuring of the airline is likely to see A380s removed from Thai’s in aviation museums than in com- fleet permanently. mercial passenger service.” ◗

16 Flight International May 2021

Visit FlightGlobal Premium for all the latest aviation news and insight FlightGlobal.com Airbus Mock-up will assess changes needed for long-range performance The learning power of PISA Derisking efforts for A321XLR include modified fuselage section to help with integration of narrowbody’s systems

David Kaminski-Morrow London Modifications to be considered for workers to aid manufacturing of for the accelerator naturally in- the flight-test aircraft as well as the clude the large rear centre tank heads-of-versions for customers. ne of the Airbus A321neo which will provide the fuel capac- The A321XLR development ef- fuselage sections previ- ity for the A321XLR’s range, as well fort is being supported by oth- ously intended for deliv- as a new 300 litre (80USgal) waste er demonstrators and validation ery to South American water tank, electronic rudder sys- platforms aimed at de-risking the Ooperator LATAM has instead been tem, modified fuel lines and hy- programme, which remains a cen- supporting the A321XLR develop- draulics, and changes to the main tral part of Airbus’s post-crisis re- ment programme as a system inte- landing-gear area. covery strategy. gration platform. Virtual visualisation technology is Another A321neo fuselage sec- Originally a standard A321LR cen- used to explore the fuselage in 3D tion, the nose of MSN9893, has tre and aft section, the fuselage of prior to the physical fitting of the been adapted, at a new industrial MSN8531 was withdrawn from the components in the demonstrator. maturity centre on the Saint Naz- Hamburg Finkenwerder production aire site, into a physical mock-up to line and effectively de-equipped – Major modifications support changes to the A320neo its pre-installed systems removed “The PISA demonstrator embodies family – including the XLR. in order to fit new ones specifically the end-to-end process from de- It is already being used to test in- for the A321XLR. sign changes to industrialisation of tegration of a new main instrument Airbus calls the fuselage section a the A321XLR,” says the airframer. panel which will become a stand- “pre-industrial system accelerator” “It is not just for the ramp-up of the ard for the family. – or PISA – a hybrid capable of sup- XLR but also for future adaptations “Pre-final assembly line operators porting both A321LR and A321XLR and major modifications.” in Saint Nazaire are now able to un- interior configurations on the main Airbus head of XLR demonstra- derstand this new [panel] structure deck while specially-developed tors Frank Dohrmann, who leads the in real factory conditions with the systems for the latter model are in- PISA project, adds that the demon- installation and ergonomics vali- stalled on the lower deck. strator will provide a training facility dation on the physical mock-up,”

Harness the power of analytics with CAE RiseTM IRUPRUHH΍HFWLYHSLORWWUDLQLQJ

18 Flight International May 2021 Programme Development

says Denis Abraham, of Airbus’s single-aisle value-stream mapping A320neo steered towards full electric rudder programme management. Other evolutionary changes Airbus is aiming to replace the mechanical rudder controls on will be integrated initially into the A320neo-family aircraft, switching to a full electric rudder system by mock-up, he says, allowing the early 2024. manufacturer to identify risks and The modification will coincide with the entry into service of the potential disruption as well as op- long-range A321XLR, which is being developed with the “E-rudder” timise logistics and tooling place- architecture in mind. ment ahead of production. While the initial delivery had been intended at the end of this year, “This preliminary work will also with an A320neo powered by CFM International Leap-1A engines, help to achieve quality objectives Airbus says it is “reviewing the introduction scenario” given the more easily,” says Abraham. disruption from the pandemic. A321XLR airframe leader Martin The E-rudder will become standard on the A319neo, A320neo and Schnoor says the nose mock-up A321neo range. But it will not be fitted to conventional A320-family will be used to analyse structural jets, nor will it be available as a retrofit. reinforcement for the new aircraft Under the current A320 and A320neo fly-by-wire architecture, owing to “different loads” on the seven computers – two flight-augmentation computers, two elevator- forward section, as well as improve- aileron computers, and three spoiler-elevator computers – handle the ments to systems for cabin comfort. flight-control surfaces. But although the flight-augmentation computers provide input for Industrial interfaces yaw damping, rudder travel limit and trim, the rudder system retains “The [mock-up] gives us the op- mechanical linkages between the pedals in the cockpit and the portunity to bring all modifications hydraulic rudder actuators. together from [the airframe, sys- The E-rudder programme will replace the mechanical interface with tems and cabin areas] to confirm an electrical one, saving some 40kg (88lb) in weight by enabling the the industrial interfaces,” he adds. removal of several fixtures and three computer units. Airbus is intending to put the Both flight-augmentation computers and one of the spoiler-elevator A321XLR into service in 2023, and computers will be withdrawn, along with the yaw-damper and rudder- the aircraft is approaching the trim actuators, and the travel limiter unit. assembly phase for major struc- Conversion to the E-rudder system involves installing a new rudder- tural components. pedal unit in the cockpit, new rudder-position sensors, and a back-up Demonstrators ranging from control module. basic wooden replicas – to veri- The rudder will be controlled through the two elevator-aileron fy accessibility for electrical, me- computers, for normal law, and the two remaining spoiler-elevator chanical, bleed-air and piping in- computers, plus the back-up module, in direct law. stallations – to advanced digital Airbus will also reconfigure control of the inboard spoilers, which augmented reality and 3D-printed were previously tied to the third spoiler-elevator computer. parts have all been employed to The primary flight-control computers will have updated hardware support the XLR’s development. and software, and software changes will be made to several others, “Early physical demonstrators while the rudder-actuation systems will be modified. and the virtual demonstrators en- “Ramp-up will be done over 2023 to standardise E-rudder by early able us to validate our design deci- 2024,” says Airbus, adding that the simpler system will also save fuel sions and close these topics,” says and reduce maintenance costs. A321XLR programme head Gary Suppliers including Collins Aerospace, Liebherr, Safran and Thales O’Donnell, adding that most of this are participating in the equipment updates for the programme. work was completed in 2020. Airbus adds that no relocation of the computers in the avionics bay The full-scale production stand- will be necessary. ard demonstrators will support in- dustrial process maturity, training, and “help secure our ramp-up”, he says, and will also be used by maintenance and customer-sup- port teams to develop manuals and technical documentation. “All these demonstrators help us to observe the systems, activities, workflows and premises under real conditions at an early stage before start of production,” says head of XLR equipping Hauke Delmas. “They provide a protected space for learning and further develop- ment. It is therefore possible to Kavolelis/Shuttertock Karolis learn from mistakes on the mock- Updated system will enter service ups without endangering produc- in 2024 on Neo-family aircraft tion or safety.” ◗

May 2021 Flight International 19 PAID CONTENT

Ready for something different? World Defense Show – which debuts in Riyadh in Saudi Arabia in March next year – promises to be an industry event like none other. We find out what will set it apart from the rest

fter a year in which there event alone. The location for WDS and Rolls-Royce are among those have been few opportu- – a short drive north of the capital who have confirmed, and Ormrod Anities for industry profes- – is an 800,000sq m exhibition site, expects to announce more in the sionals to meet in person, inspired by Saudi Arabian archi- coming months. “Our international the prospect of a brand new bi- tectural styles, with two halls of a reach is growing,” he says. ennial global defence exhibition in combined 58,000sq m, plus its own Like other defence shows, WDS early 2022 is doubly enticing. For land demonstration track, 2.7km will be multi-sector, with aerospace, it will take place in a nation that is runway, a firing range, 120,000 sq naval, land, cyber and satellite as- not only one of the most dynam- m inner court yard and dedicated sets on display. Riyadh’s inland lo- ic markets in the world, but going airspace for flying displays. cation presents an opportunity for through remarkable economic, po- visitors to experience how interop- litical, and social change. Unique advantage erable technology works in prac- The World Defense Show, which “We have had the unique advan- tice – even on platforms that are was founded by the Kingdom’s tage of being able to design this not physically at the show. Attend- General Authority for Military In- from a blank sheet of paper,” says ees, for instance, might be able to dustries (GAMI) and is scheduled WDS chief executive officer Shaun stand in the “command and control for 6-9 March in Riyadh, Saudi Ormrod, an events veteran who centre” of a ship as a military ex- Arabia, will be an event unlike any previously headed the company ercise takes place, thanks to virtual other – both in its setting, and that runs the Farnborough Air- reality, says Ormrod. also in the context in which it will show. He and his Saudi colleagues The reason for choosing the de- be staged. The Gulf kingdom – for have spent two-and-a-half years sert site was that “we wanted an decades one of the biggest oil pro- conceiving the event, which was area that we had complete control ducers and in a strategically vital formally launched in July last year. over”, says Ormrod. That means region – is diversifying its economy Ormrod has recruited 40 staff that – in addition to benefiting from by opening its door to investors and is adding 20 more. His sales a bespoke venue – visitors will also and visitors, as it transforms its de- representatives in China, France, appreciate a full day’s air display fence industrial sector. the UK, and the USA are working schedule, with those being enter- As far as the setting is concerned, on signing up major international tained in 60 hospitality suites on few trade shows can boast an ex- exhibitors: Chinese defence agen- the first and second floors enjoying hibition site purpose-built for that cy CATIC, missiles house MBDA, a panoramic view of static and sky.

20 Flight International May 2021 PAID CONTENT

But what about, what is for some, international visitors and for busi- the bane of the busy air show – the ness. Importantly, the visa process screaming background noise of a is much simpler than it used to be jet fighter interrupting a meal or for most nationalities. meeting with its airborne display? It may be, as Americans term it, Great expectations the “sound of freedom”, but amid Many of Ormrod’s team are experi- a delicate business negotiation, it enced in every element of airshows is often less appreciated. For those around the world. This, he says, in the hospitality suites, however, it helps with understanding visitors’ will not be a problem; each room is needs. “We are learning for our- insulated to reduce external noise. selves what the expectations are. WDS has the backing of both na- We are already doing the dry run tional military champion Saudi Ara- – our priority is to ensure a smooth bian Defense Industries, or SAMI, customer journey from start to fin- and GAMI, the General Authority Chief executive Shaun Ormrod ish,” he says. He says those con- for Military Industries, which is the has a wealth of experience sidering exhibiting are welcome in regulator and enabler for the king- Riyadh for a tour of the show site, dom’s defence sector, and charged which is under construction with a with realizing a national commit- view to completion later this year. ment to have local companies sup- generation of young Saudis. This World Defense Show has an- plying 50% of Saudi armed forces will involve partnerships with in- nounced dates for 2024 and 2026. procurement by 2030. ternational partners, prepared to “We are making it crystal clear we This pledge is part of Saudi Ara- invest in the kingdom’s burgeoning are here to stay,” remarks Orm- bia’s Vision 2030 strategy, a vision aerospace and defence sector. rod. “The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia spearheaded by Crown Prince HRH One of the unique selling points is taking its rightful place on the Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, of WDS, says Ormrod, will be the world stage.” As for what visitors which is designed to diversify Sau- opportunity for exhibitors to have can expect, Ormrod has no doubt di Arabia from an economy reliant “meaningful, coordinated engage- what the reaction of many will be: on exports of oil and other natural ment with the Saudi government “I fully expect to be standing there resources into a “global investment and defence community”. If visiting as people leave and hear them say: powerhouse”, turning the kingdom companies are willing to “align their ‘Wow! That was different!’”◗ into a hub for trade between the strategy with Vision 2030, there three continents of Africa, Asia, will be opportunities aplenty”, he ● World Defense Show will and Europe. insists. “I make no excuses for mak- be held in the presence of The “rebalancing” of defence ing this one of our key USPs.” Saudi Arabia’s key leadership, spending will involve nurturing Ormrod says he is aware that international delegations and an ecosystem of small and me- many defence professionals may prominent industry decision- dium-sized enterprises, provid- not have visited Saudi Arabia makers from around the world. ing job opportunities and career and not know what to expect;. To learn more about the show, visit routes within the country to a new The country, he says, is open for www.worlddefenseshow.com.

May 2021 Flight International 21 Visit FlightGlobal Premium for all the latest aviation news and insight FlightGlobal.com Jon Flobrant/Unsplash Briefi ng packages for fl ightcrew can include hundreds of notices to airmen ICAO targets information overload Organisation aiming to eliminate 400,000 NOTAMs in 2021, as seven-fold increase over 20 years leaves pilots overwhelmed

David Kaminski-Morrow London advising of the runway closure was global campaign to overhaul the on the eighth, towards the middle NOTAM system. of the second page of NOTAMs. Zee presented the example of he overfl ight of a heavily- Although the entry included a a typical briefi ng package for an occupied taxiway by an Air- ‘NEW’ marker in red with aster- A330 fl ight from Munich to Singa- bus A320 at San Francisco isks, and bold text for ‘RWY’ and pore, containing 24 pages of op- International airport illus- ‘CLSD’, the inquiry said: “This lev- erational information – fuel, route Ttrated the serious risks of overload- el of emphasis was not eff ective in and weather data, all clearly laid ing pilots with NOTAMs, an ICAO prompting the fl ightcrew members out – followed by some 120 pages forum has heard, as the organisa- to review [or] retain this informa- of NOTAMs. tion launches an eff ort to reduce tion, especially given the NOTAM’s the volume of their use. location, which was not optimal for Routine occurrence The Air Canada jet’s crew, intend- information recall.” “This is not a special case,” he says. ing to land on runway 28R at night It points out that a psychological “This is routinely happening. Every in July 2017, inadvertently lined up characteristic called the ‘serial po- fl ight, every day, is getting a very with the parallel taxiway C, which sition eff ect’ results in people being big package of NOTAMs.” was occupied by four aircraft – only better able to recall the fi rst and Finnair A320 captain Lauri Soini executing a go-around at 100ft af- last items in a series than those in points out that each page will con- ter overfl ying the fi rst of them. the middle. tain some 10-15 NOTAMs. US National Transportation Safety “The failure to see this NOTAM “For every single one we should Board investigators found the pilots was, in essence, the primary cause read, understand and decide if it’s misidentifi ed the taxiway because of this serious incident. That was a relevant for our fl ight,” he says. But they had not recalled the closure of wake-up call,” Mark Zee, founder of even reading at a rate of just 5s runway 27L contained in a NOTAM. OpsGroup and a former pilot and each, he notes, the process could The crew’s fl ight-release package air traffi c controller, said during an take over 90min, whereas crews was 27 pages long and the notice ICAO event on 8 April initiating a might only have 20min for pre- fl ight briefi ng. Twenty years ago the total brief- “A NOTAM should never be active ing package would have been “us- able” at fewer than 20 pages, says for more than three months, and Soini, but the increase in NOTAM data has been “staggering”. never be replaced more than once” Some 1.7 million NOTAMs were published in 2020, ICAO says, with ICAO about 35,000 remaining active on

22 Flight International May 2021 Pilots Workload

any given day. While this number Only 19 out of 42 Asia-Pacifi c government agencies… some of was a 5% reduction from the pre- countries and administrative regions which have no, or very little, knowl- vious year, as a result of the air have introduced quality-manage- edge of the requirements of issuing transport crisis, there has been a ment systems, says ICAO Asia-Pa- a NOTAM,” she says. seven-fold increase over the past cifi c regional offi cer Shane Sumner, “More often than not they’d want two decades. and there is evidence of poor up- a message to go out as they had “A NOTAM should never be keep in implementing states. formulated it, and to remain in active for more than three months, Just 12 countries have estab- force much longer than the stipu- and never be replaced more than lished formal arrangements with lated standard.” once,” ICAO says. Currently, some data originators and, among the ICAO’s campaign also aims to are being replaced “multiple times, latter, there is “insuffi cient knowl- look at the quality of NOTAMs. sometimes for years” – and this edge and awareness” of regula- While a briefi ng package for a will not necessarily be highlight- tions, he adds. long-haul international fl ight might ed on its monitoring tool because contain more than 100 pages of they do not individually exceed Non-compliant data NOTAM information, “Findings have the 90-day limit. This situation is exacerbated by shown that 20% of these will be old Its “NOTAM2021” campaign – aeronautical information services’ NOTAMs, exceeding their three- which will continue with bi-month- being frequently aff orded “only month applicability period,” it says. ly sessions – will initially focus on low status” within civil aviation au- The campaign is being support- eliminating the number of outdated thorities, says Sumner, and not be- ed by international pilot federation NOTAMs still circulating in the sys- ing empowered to refuse to accept IFALPA. tem due to “widespread misuse”. It raw or non-compliant data provid- “There have been numerous ef- estimates that it could potentially ed at late notice. forts through the years to improve eliminate over 400,000 old notices ICAO Eastern and South African the system, but none has been suc- this year and prevent recurrence. regional offi cer Keziah Ogutu refers cessful,” says the federation. “This During the launch event, several to similar issues on the continent, year will be diff erent.” ICAO regional offi ces underlined including inadequate infrastructure Improvements could include ba- problems of inadequate regulatory for information dissemination, lack sic changes centred on the use of oversight and slow implementation of expertise, and poor training. abbreviations and the use of letter of quality-management systems for “A lot of our NOTAMs come from case, along with aspects of sorting aeronautical information services. external service providers including and fi ltering, IFALPA says. ◗

INERTIAL SYSTEMS

ENSURING SAFETY AND PERFORMANCE FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW.

With light weight, small volume, outstanding environmental robustness and unmatched performance LITEF’s Attitude and Heading Reference Systems deliver value to the operators of all types of civil and military aircraft.

LITEF.COM Defence Acquisition Canada backs Airbus for tanker replacement AirTeamImages Nation’s four-strong fleet of A310s is set to be retired

A330 MRTT clear to pursue Polaris successor requirement unopposed, as Ottawa rejects Boeing’s rival offer of KC-46

Craig Hoyle London company says. The air force cur- Its analysis phase for the STTC re- rently operates two examples as quirement began in March 2018. dedicated tankers and two in the The new tanker/transport fleet he Airbus Defence & Space strategic transport role. will be introduced at Trenton air A330 multi-role tanker “The STTC programme looks to base in Ontario, with Ottawa ex- transport (MRTT) is the replace the RCAF CC-150 Polaris pecting IOC to be declared in sole candidate to have tanker fleet with a multirole aircraft 2028-2029. Full operational capa- Tbeen approved to bid in a process capable of conducting a wide range bility should follow by 2030-2031. to replace the Royal Canadian Air of missions including NATO and Airbus Defence & Space Canada Force’s (RCAF’s) A310 fleet, after NORAD operations, from air-to-air president Simon Jacques notes the a rival offer of the Boeing KC-46 refuelling to strategic government A330 MRTT “is certified to operate Pegasus was rejected by Ottawa. of Canada transport and aeromed- with [most] western receivers, in- An invitation to qualify pro- ical evacuation,” Airbus says. cluding Canada’s current fighters, cess for Canada’s Strategic Tanker Canada in July 2020 declared its transport and mission aircraft.” Transport Capability (STTC) pro- A310 tankers as having attained The company is already supply- ject was launched on 12 February. initial operational capability (IOC) ing Canada with a 17-strong fleet Airbus announced on 1 April that for NORAD missions – its air force of C295 fixed-wing search and res- this activity “has identified the had previously employed Lockheed cue aircraft. The service’s first lo- A330 MRTT as capable of meeting Martin C-130H/Ts for such duties. cally-designated CC-295 Kingfisher the project’s requirements”. “This new aircraft will improve the was delivered to its Comox air base A draft request for proposals to flexibility, responsiveness, interop- in British Columbia last September. replace the nation’s four A310s – erability with allied nations, com- Boeing confirms that its STTC a type named the CC-150 Polaris munications security, and self-pro- candidate will not be considered in Canadian service – is anticipat- tection of the Royal Canadian Air for the next project phase. ed in the third quarter of 2021, the Force’s current fleet,” Ottawa says. “Boeing was informed by the gov- ernment of Canada that the KC-46 did not qualify for the country’s “This new aircraft will improve Strategic Tanker Transport Capa- bility project,” the company says. the flexibility, responsiveness and “While disappointed in the decision, we will remain ready to bring the full self-protection of the current fleet” depth and breadth of Boeing to our offer in the event Canada decides to Canadian government reopen the bidding process.” ◗

Download the 2021

IN ASSOCIATION WITH World Air Forces Report FlightGlobal.com/waf

24 Flight International May 2021 Rotocraft Development Bell Bell is offering a version of its V-280 Valor tiltrotor for the requirement US Army accelerates FLRAA plans Combined awards to rival bidders for Black Hawk replacement to speed decision on engineering and manufacturing phase

Garrett Reim Los Angeles army’s Sikorsky UH-60 Black Hawk “That is one of the key differenti- utility helicopters. Bell and the ators that we’re going to be able to Sikorsky-Boeing team are respec- provide on the [army’s Future Ver- ell and a Sikorsky-Boeing tively offering refined versions of tical Lift] programmes,” says Glenn team have been awarded their V-280 Valor tiltrotor and SB-1 Isbell, the company’s vice-president contracts worth a combined Defiant co-axial rotor/pusher pro- of rapid prototyping and manufac- $577 million to accelerate peller technology demonstrators. turing innovation. “We’re able to Bpreliminary design review work on The US Army has previously build things in such a different way.” their Future Long Range Assault said it expects to launch the pre- Isbell says the company has al- Aircraft (FRLAA) candidates for liminary design review phase in ready achieved a 40% cost reduc- the US Army. the second quarter of fiscal year tion when producing the V-280’s In particular, the service wants an 2023. The rivals are expected to mast part, and cut lead-time by early analysis of requirements for fly their FLRAA candidates for 80%, from 12-18 months to less the US Special Operations Com- the first time by the third quarter than 90 days. It has also reported mand, as well as medical evacu- of FY2024, with the army wanting similar results for a variety of air- ation missions and features sup- its first unit equipped with the new frame parts. porting export. rotorcraft by FY2030. Bell is also aiming to develop “This strategy will enable the more streamlined ways of produc- winning offeror to complete both Digital engineering ing its aircraft. air vehicle and weapons system Meanwhile, Bell says that by em- “Our core philosophy is to sim- preliminary design reviews in less bracing digital engineering and plify the manufacturing process, to than a year after the programmat- manufacturing technologies it will remove as many steps as we can,” ic contract award, advancing the be able to cut the cost and lead- says Isbell. “We’ll then improve schedule to an earlier Milestone B time on rotorcraft parts by dou- what’s left and put digital control decision,” the army says. This “will ble-digit percentages. capabilities in, so that we can mon- provide more time for detailed de- The company opened its new itor how the part is being built in its sign, building and testing of proto- Manufacturing Technology Center lifecycle. The whole idea of making type air vehicles”, it adds. in Fort Worth, Texas on 25 March, a batch of parts and then finding A Milestone B decision repre- in support of pitches for FLRAA out they’re bad is the exact prob- sents the point at which a service and the army’s Future Attack Re- lem we’re trying to solve.” recommends a design to enter the connaissance Aircraft need. Parts For example, the company has engineering and manufacturing de- for the V-280 and 360 Invictus previously manufactured a paral- velopment phase. winged helicopter are now being lel gear by using six different ma- Bell has received a competitive worked on within the 13,000sq m chines. Now, it has found a way of demonstration and risk-reduction (140,000sq ft) facility. making the part using one machine, Phase II contract worth $293 mil- Bell says it has been able to use with just one setup. lion, with the Sikorsky-Boeing team digital engineering software pro- “We’ve been able to significant- securing $284 million. grams and new equipment to sim- ly reduce the amount of steps re- The FLRAA programme is intend- plify its manufacturing process and quired to build the part at the same ed to deliver a replacement for the eliminate errors. level of quality,” Isbell says. ◗

May 2021 Flight International 25 Flightcrew Recruitment

United sets pilot diversity target US carrier offers scholarship scheme and improved access to funds in effort to increase minority representation in cockpit AirTeamImages

Pilar Wolfsteller Las Vegas pilots in a decade. In February in the third quarter, with gradua- 2020, the carrier bought a flight tions in the first half of 2022. Unit- school in Phoenix, Arizona, which ed expects to enroll 100 students in nited Airlines will train it renamed United Aviate Academy, the programme this year. 5,000 new pilots in the where training is to take place. Recommitting to a training initia- next 10 years through its The coronavirus crisis and tive while the coronavirus pandem- “Aviate” recruitment pro- near-shutdown of the industry in ic is still raging and a full recovery is Ugramme, with at least half of those 2020 threw those plans off track, years away may seem counter-in- to be women and people of colour. as carriers slashed networks, sent tuitive, but for airlines like United The Chicago-based carrier on aircraft into long-term storage and the focus is on the future, not the 6 April said that it and JP Morgan trimmed staff. immediate present. Chase will each provide $1.2 million Indeed, recent forecasts suggest in scholarships this year to help fi- that while demand for crews in the nance crew training for candidates near term is clearly depressed, fur- that might otherwise struggle with ther out, a shortage still looms. the cost. Additionally, United will 5,000 Last November, Canadian train- partner with financial institutions ing and simulator provider CAE to give Aviate’s students access to Number of new pilots United aims to raised eyebrows when it said the loans for flight training, which can train in next decade, with at least 50% industry would need as many as cost $100,000 or more. to be women or people of colour 264,000 new pilots worldwide in The programme is designed to the next 10 years. provide United with a solid pilot Though that figure spurred push- pipeline over the coming years, as United’s commitment to ensure back from the pilot community, the the industry works to head off an half of pilot candidates are female same general view is supported by expected shortage of cockpit crew. or minority is notable. Only about a recent study published by man- “We had a pilot shortage before 5% of all commercial pilot certifi- agement consultancy Oliver Wy- the pandemic. After the pandemic cate holders in the USA are female, man, which says that a shortage we will still need qualified, excep- while non-white pilots compose a is still looming, even if its onset is tional people on our flightdecks, sliver of the ranks. delayed by the pandemic. and this is a way to get them there “My path [to aviation] was circui- “The most important question is faster,” says Carole Hopson, a first tous,” says Hopson, for whom avia- not whether a pilot shortage will officer at United, and a woman tion is a third career. She began pi- re-emerge, but when it will occur of colour. She adds that the pro- lot training when she was 36 years and how large the gap will be be- gramme gives diverse candidates a old. ”I don’t want the next genera- tween supply and demand,” the “career pathway that’s visible”. tion of people who look like me to consultancy says. Prior to the announcement, Unit- wait that long.” Oliver Wyman says the global ed had already indicated that it is United wants to ensure it taps gap between supply and demand ready to resume hiring flightcrew: into a “deep talent pool” of candi- will be at least 34,000 pilots by the airline intends to take on 300 pi- dates who have the aptitude and 2025, and possibly 50,000. lots who either had a new-hire class desire to become commercial pi- Key contributors to the short- date that was cancelled, or who had lots. It will partner with historically age are an ageing workforce – and received a conditional job offer that black colleges and universities, and mandatory retirement at 65 – plus was rescinded after the huge drop with high schools, to identify and the duration, difficulty and, above in passenger demand last year. recruit top talent early, it says. all else, high cost of pilot training United launched Aviate in 2019, The Aviate Academy plans to be- that deters many from pursuing it aiming to train up to 10,000 new gin training a class of 20 students as a career. ◗

26 Flight International May 2021

Visit FlightGlobal Premium for all the latest aviation news and insight FlightGlobal.com

Renewed authority While the UK’s decision to leave EASA remains problematic, the CAA’s new boss Sir Stephen Hillier is determined that the agency can rise to the challenge

David Kaminski-Morrow London “How can we ensure, as an or- ganisation and nation, that we con- tinue to discharge responsibilities K withdrawal from the – and continue to be one of lead- European Union Aviation ing aviation nations in the world? Safety Agency (EASA) That’s my approach to it.” was one of the more in- During Theresa May’s term as Ucomprehensible aspects of Brex- prime minister, a parliamentary in- it for the air transport industry, dustrial strategy committee heavily but new Civil Aviation Authority favoured remaining within EASA. (CAA) chairman Sir Stephen Hillier Evidence from aerospace business- is not inclined to ruminate over the es, unions and academia, it said, wisdom of the decision. was “unanimous” in support of con- Hillier rose to the rank of Air Chief Marshal As might be expected from a tinued UK membership. and was leader of the Royal Air Force highly-decorated military offi cer “Close global regulatory align- – Hillier is a Gulf War pilot who ment in aerospace has resulted in reached the rank of Air Chief Mar- benefi ts in terms of safety, the ease shal and led the Royal Air Force – of global trade and effi ciency, while “It’s not the case that, over the he is more focused on addressing it is unclear that there are any bene- years, everything to do with our the state of play on the ground fi ts from divergence at this time,” it regulatory functions in the CAA than debating the government added. The committee said the UK’s was handled by EASA. Particular thinking which led to it. infl uence on aerospace regulation aspects were certainly handled by “I think I’d characterise myself from within EASA was “preferable” EASA – but there remained a very as realist and pragmatist,” he tells to “securing an escape” from Euro- strong core foundation in the UK FlightGlobal. “This is the situation pean Court of Justice jurisdiction – looking after our national responsi- we’re in. How do we ensure we especially given that the court had, bilities,” says Hillier. deal with that situation to the best in practice, “played no role” in EA- “Where things were not repli- of our ability? SA’s work and had never issued a cated in the CAA, but were deliv- ruling on an EASA decision. ered by EASA, we brought those functions back into the CAA. And Full withdrawal I’m proud of the way in which we UK industry is still suff ering from But the Brexit agreement negotiat- worked up that new capability, in eff ects of Covid-19 pandemic ed by May’s successor, Boris John- the way we tested it out thorough- son, was founded on full withdraw- ly, before [the exit from the EU], al from European Court of Justice and the way we’re now implement- oversight – and therefore from ing it in practice. EASA – forcing the CAA to re-es- “I’m not saying that, on 1 January, tablish itself as a standalone regu- every aspect was taken care of to lator from 1 January, outside of the the ultimate extent. It was a foun- agency in which the UK had been dation. And in the [post-Brexit] pe- highly respected. riod we’ve been steadily building “We were a very strong contrib- on that foundation working with utor to EASA from the start,” says other nations to ensure that we Hillier. “Working together across can conduct business as effi ciently nations, to ensure we have the saf- as possible.” est possible environment, has al- The CAA is not aiming to engage ways been one of the things we’ve in persuasion with EASA. “It’s not been very good at.” for us to run an infl uence cam- The extent of UK involvement and paign,” says Hillier, but adds: “We the expertise it provided to EASA won’t be eff ective unless we have meant the CAA had a “very strong strong and enduring relationships foundation already in place” ahead with EASA – and likewise EASA has of the withdrawal, he states, with to have a strong, eff ective and en-

Rich Higgins/Shutterstock safety “absolutely covered”. during relationship with the CAA.”

28 Flight International May 2021 Interview Sir Stephen Hillier

exploitation, the innovation, and which best deals with emerging technologies. I don’t think any- body’s got that yet. “Here’s an example of an oppor- tunity where we might, as the UK, be able to frame a future in a new area of capability which is genuine- ly world-leading.” Flexibility and agility, he says, could be a “powerful advantage” for an organisation trying to set standards in a field of new systems demanding new requirements.

Transition period Although the final UK-EU post-Brex- it agreement meant a ‘no-deal’ sce- nario was averted days before the 1 January split, the section on avia- tion is conspicuously one-sided. All EASA certificates, approvals and licences that were in effect on 31 December will continue to be recognised by the CAA for up to two years. But UK-licensed pilots and UK-approved engineers will

Oliver Dixon/Shutterstock Dixon/Shutterstock Oliver not be qualified on EU-registered aircraft, and UK-issued cabin crew attestations may similarly cease to be recognised. “Working together across nations, UK aircraft are also restricted to third- and fourth-freedom servic- to ensure we have the safest es, losing the automatic intra-EU access that came with EU member- possible environment, has always ship. UK users of the space-based EGNOS position-augmentation been one of the things we’ve been service, which supports approach guidance for landing aircraft, will very good at” lose access in June this year. “I’m sure that every sector of the economy could look at that foun- While separation from EASA – emphasising that the UK is part dational document and say, ‘I wish theoretically grants the CAA more of ICAO and that “we shouldn’t just it could have included X, Y and Z’. freedom to adopt its own regulato- see this through a European lens”. But there are practical limits, par- ry stance, the extent to which it can Renegade activity is unlikely to ticularly in the timelines which were realistically make changes – given find much endorsement in the in- available, to cover every aspect we the trend towards harmonisation – ternational air transport sector, but might have wished,” says Hillier. is yet to become clear. Hillier believes certain rapid chang- He acknowledges that “there’s es within aerospace present an av- not full reciprocity at this stage” Practical reality enue worth exploring. and the scale of the negotiation Hillier highlights the “practical reali- “The classic example, I think, is task, given that the UK needs to ty” that the CAA can be “more agile in relation to remotely-piloted air deal with every EU member while and flexible” because it no longer systems [RPAS],” he says. “The in- any individual EU state only has to needs to wait for consensus to novation, the development in those deal with the UK. emerge within a 28-country circle. areas is really accelerating. “Listening to the sector, and un- “We don’t want to be divergent “It’s worthy of note that, through- derstanding the issues people are for divergence’s sake,” he says. out the pandemic, the one area experiencing in practice, we’ve put “We’re very conscious that, if we where we’ve seen a consistent in a huge amount of effort to work are divergent, there is also cost on growth – in terms of applications bilaterally with other nations and businesses potentially and we need for licences, applications for air- start to secure the agreements we to be very mindful of that.” space use – has been in RPAS. That need to secure,” he says. But he also believes there is a has continued to accelerate. “That doesn’t mean that it’s all “balance” to be achieved, to ex- “Against that sort of backdrop done. Twenty-seven countries is an amine possible opportunities while I don’t think anybody has yet de- issue there. It doesn’t mean that we maintaining smooth operations veloped the perfect regulatory en- have all of the reciprocity that we across international boundaries vironment which best ensures the might hope for.”

May 2021 Flight International 29 Interview Sir Stephen Hillier

But the UK’s aim, he suggests, would be signifi cantly more expen- And while Brexit might technical- is to forge relationships rather sive than maintaining membership. ly be over, the work to establish the than adopt an intransigent trans- UK aerospace trade association CAA in the post-Brexit arena – with actional attitude. ADS Group chief executive Paul its blend of considerations on regu- “I think taking the view that we Everitt, in November 2017, said the lation, sustainability, innovation, re- are going to be as open as we body had estimated the task would lationships and Covid recovery – is possibly can befi ts our status as a involve 200-300 people and cost only beginning. leading world aerospace nation,” £30 million ($41 million) annually. “[We’re not] saying we’ve all says Hillier, although he cautions “For us, it is very clear that going it those bases covered, in a way that that the strategy of being “open alone is the most expensive option we’re satisfi ed [will] take us through and accommodating” should not and, in most cases, not the most ef- the next 10 years. No organisation mean indefi nite acceptance. “It has fi cient,” he stated. can say it’s covered,” he says. to be time-limited,” he says. Hillier insists the notion of rebuild- “For about the last year now, New post-Brexit bilateral ar- ing the CAA is misleading. “That we’ve been working on what we rangements were put in place with would imply we gave all our respon- would say is defi ning the ‘CAA of several countries – among them the sibilities to EASA, and then those the future’. What sort of organisa- USA, Canada, Brazil and Japan – to responsibilities were coming back, tion do we want to be? What will ensure recognition of safety cer- and we had to start from the bot- our responsibilities be, and how are tifi cates and support operations, tom up and re-do the organisation. we going to do our business? while ICAO membership provides “That work is now coming to ma- assurances with others. turity and essentially laying out De-integration from EASA meant CAA strategy, taking us through bringing two particular roles back the next 10 years.” within the CAA remit. For state-of- design, some 20-25 people were Core objectives looking after UK interests in EASA. This strategy aims to combine core “What we needed to do was ei- objectives with a sense of direc- ther bring those individuals back tion, while emphasising fl exibility, into our system or fi nd people to he says: “Because we might think fi t those roles,” says Hillier. “It was [we know] what the world’s going a mixed response. Some decided to look like over the next 10 years to stay in EASA, some didn’t. That but it’s probably going to be diff er- was their choice.” ent from what we planned. “So this is under-the-bonnet ac- Aviation safety tivity that we need to do. I’m real- But the CAA managed to recruit ly enthusiastic about the progress suffi cient personnel to have the that we’re making, particularly in necessary governance in place by areas like sustainability. Aside from 1 January. The other major role be- the recovery from Covid – and let’s ing repatriated is aviation safety not underestimate that – getting to

policy-making, which is being han- CAA grips with sustainability, in all of its dled in conjunction with the De- Hillier aims to maintain the CAA’s reputation respects, all those sort of things I partment for Transport. as a highly capable, ‘world-class regulator’ think are really exciting and chal- “Nothing I’ve seen in the three lenging as well.” months [since Brexit] would sug- The realm of the future CAA, gest that we are having any diffi cul- “It certainly isn’t that way in he adds, will not be limited to air- ties through a lack of the skills and structural terms, and doesn’t feel space. With legislation in progress capacities,” says Hillier. “The one like that in practice.” to allow for CAA oversight of com- sort of caveat that I’ll honestly off er He says the number of people mercial spacefl ight technologies, is that we’re clearly in ‘Covid times’.” brought back to the CAA to sup- from vertically-launched vehicles He says the CAA is aware of the port the reclaiming of functions to sub-orbital aircraft, space regu- “very low baseline” resulting from from EASA is relatively small com- lation is “part of the exciting jour- the pandemic’s suppression of traf- pared with the CAA’s 1,200 employ- ney”, says Hillier. fi c and is concentrating on ensuring ees, about half of whom are within “I would hope the CAA’s call- that it has capacity to cope as activ- safety and airspace regulation. ing-card continues to be that we’re ity picks up during a recovery. “I think that gives a little bit of the seen as a world-class regulator, that But out of the range of issues the sense of perspective here,” he says. we have the skills and capabilities CAA is monitoring, he states, the “We’re not rebuilding an organ- and experience to off er that others implication of being outside EASA isation. We’ve just put new wings would fi nd attractive,” he says. is “not one that’s a concern at this onto the building rather than come “We’re a learning organisation. stage – it’s just a consideration in up with the new building itself.” Working with others increases our there, it’s not one that troubles us”. He stresses that this neverthe- learning. We learn from our deal- When the government was de- less has taken “a lot of hard work ings with other nations. By off ering bating the merits of leaving EASA, and planning” and that a successful out our product, if we can be part it was told during industrial com- transition on 1 January was down of enhancing aviation safety across mittee testimonies that replicating to the eff ort and resources devoted the world then we have not only the the European agency’s functions over the previous four years. desire but the duty to do that.” ◗

30 Flight International Month 2021

Visit FlightGlobal Premium for all the latest aviation news and insight FlightGlobal.com

Cost war of attrition So-called attritable aircraft are of soaring interest to the US Air Force, but can manufacturers succeed in making such assets affordably disposable?

Garrett Reim Los Angeles reliability. But with attritable UAVs there is no pilot to keep alive, and the equipment is so cheap by de- he sight of an aircraft crash- sign that combatant commanders ing would be the stuff of – and the US Congress – will not nightmares for most engi- mind the loss. neers. But for those compa- Manufacturers say model-based Tnies developing a new class of un- systems engineering is at the core replaced by three $50 valves each manned air vehicles (UAVs) called of making such aircraft viable. guaranteed to work for 1,000h. attritable aircraft, such destruction These software tools allow them to “We’re going to build redundan- is unlikely to elicit more than a create a digital twin of a UAV and cy. We’re going to put in three par- shrug of the shoulders. then explore its total lifetime cost allel paths – all we need is any one The US Air Force (USAF) be- in various simulations. of the three working and the sys- lieves that by designing and build- tem will keep operating,” he says. ing UAVs cheaply enough it can Digital twin Sourcing parts and components gain an edge over its adversaries “When you have a digital twin that from the commercial aviation sec- in a war of attrition; it wants assets goes all the way from the product tor is also helpful. that it can afford to lose. through the production system “Stay away from bleeding-edge UAVs priced between $2 million into the operating environment, we technology,” says Fendley. “Don’t and $20 million are being sought can very rapidly model the impacts try to incorporate the very latest to accomplish a range of missions, of any change,” says Glynn. technology that still has risk asso- including intelligence, surveillance “It could be really detailed-level ciated with it [and] probably has and reconnaissance, air strikes, decisions around informing how additional costs.” air-to-air combat and electronic you transport parts around the Business jet engines were picked warfare. Exactly what price point factory, or what enables lean flow to power the ATS and Valkyrie air- offers the best balance of afforda- through the production system,” he craft. Boeing declines to identify the bility and performance is debat- says. “Any number of those small engine used with its platform, while ed by the manufacturers vying to decisions cumulatively add up Kratos confirms only that it employs build the USAF’s attritable aircraft to making a big difference to the a Williams International model. in programmes such as MQ-Next overall cost base.” “We need to have an engine and Skyborg. Manufacturers must also adopt a that’s super reliable, super pre- “The philosophy behind an at- different mindset towards quality dictable,” says Fendley. “We un- tritable aircraft is really around de- and reliability, says Steve Fendley, derstand the performance, it can sign for cost,” says Andrew Glynn, unmanned systems division presi- be maintained, it is a reasonable programme manager for the Boe- dent at Kratos Defense & Security cost, and it all fits within the sys- ing Airpower Teaming System Solutions. The company’s XQ-58A tem.” In the future, there might be (ATS), which was first flown in Aus- Valkyrie on 26 March conducted its an opportunity to reduce the cost tralia on 27 February. “It’s about sixth flight, releasing an Area-I Alti- of such engines by changing mate- trying to get a good enough prod- us-600 air-launched effect from its rials or manufacturing some parts uct at the right price.” internal weapons bay. via 3D printing, he adds. “Good enough” represents a new As an exaggerated example, Another cost-saving method is to mindset for the aerospace indus- Fendley says a fuel valve part that go without, for example by using try, which is usually doggedly fo- might cost $500,000 and is guar- fewer control surfaces. “If your at- cused on high levels of safety and anteed to work for 5,000h could be tritable [aircraft] gets shot and you

Download the Military Simulator Census online now.

CAE – Your worldwide training partner of choice ZZZȵLJKWJOREDOFRPPLOLVLP

32 Flight International May 2021 Unmanned systems Manufacturing

“An attritable [aircraft] doesn’t need to survive decades of use and abuse – many will be one-time use, no different from firing a missile”

Steve Fendley President unmanned systems, Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Tem. Et occus reperro reresed eostruptus voluptium esequidit, designs and an open architecture overall part count, which reduces to easily accommodate new hard- touch labour and integration costs.” ware and software. While there may be a place for Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Defense Kratos “It really does almost become several types of materials, compos- XQ-58A made a sixth flight on 26 March, a kit perspective, like more of an ites seem to have a leading applica- releasing Altius-600 air-launched effect Ikea furniture kind of mindset,” tion. “The strength-to-weight ratio, says Renee Pasman, director of in- the basic strength characteristics, tegrated systems within Lockheed the damage tolerance character- lose a control surface, you’re proba- Martin’s Advanced Development istics, the ability to evaluate a po- bly going to decide to ditch and not Programs unit, known popularly as tential flaw in manufacturing, or for try to bring it back,” Fendley notes. Skunk Works. failure or a soon-to-be failure in the “An attritable [aircraft] doesn’t By using 3D printing, but also tra- field, carbonfibre is just fantastic,” need to survive decades of use and ditional CNC machining, attritable says Fendley. abuse – many will likely be only one- aircraft should have simple shapes time use, no different from firing a that can be assembled quickly, even Material qualities missile – so the need for redundant within a couple of hours, she says. Low-cost, resin-infusion compos- systems is diminished compared Boeing uses modular jigs to as- ites have advantages, but material with an aircraft that is designed for semble its ATS, with “a common qualities are not the only impor- a 40,000-hour service life,” says base that can be easily reconfig- tant consideration for Boeing, says Mike Atwood, senior director for urable to accept different types Glynn. “It’s not just the material advanced programmes at General of major structure components, costs or the fabrication time, it’s Atomics Aeronautical Systems. for example the fuselage or wing,” understanding how those materi- Glynn says. als and processes help to support Looser tolerances Its first, production-representa- lean, single piece flow through a Allowing for less precision in man- tive prototype was built with high factory,” he says. ufacturing will also be helpful. levels of automation, he says, not- “Composites lend themselves “The tighter tolerances are going ing: “We start by designing the full- to complex shapes,” says Atwood. to drive cost. It’s going to drive the rate [system] and work backwards “But for small attritables, we might failure rates up, drive the number of or tune it from there.” get away with high-strength, injec- things that don’t make it out of the General Atomics also is looking tion-moulded or additive-manufac- factory, that end up being reject- toward commercial manufacturing tured composites or plastics. Keep- ed,” Fendley says. Accommodating processes, including 3D printing. ing touch points and maintenance looser tolerances will also enable “One of the key technologies is to a minimum, and parts count and easier repairs if the aircraft sustains additive manufacturing of thermo- redundancy low, can make attrita- damage in flight or on landing. plastics. Using tool-less part man- bles affordable,” he adds. Generally, manufacturers say at- ufacturing enables minimised de- That might mean forgoing main- tritable aircraft must be simpler velopment cost,” Atwood says. “In tenance access panels, says Pas- than their peers, with modular addition, this technology reduces man, so broken or damaged UAVs might just be thrown away, rather than repaired. “If you can get the price point right that actually starts making some amount of sense,” she says. Lockheed argues that such UAVs need to be even cheaper than the USAF’s $2 million cost floor to make the grade. “In order to really get that very large mass of small, low-cost ve- hicles, you really have to get to a cost point that you don’t necessar- ily care if they come back,” Pasman says. “$20 million airplanes – are Boeing’s Airpower Teaming System was we really not going to care that built using high levels of automation ◗ Boeing they don’t come back?”

May 2021 Flight International 33 Visit FlightGlobal Premium for all the latest aviation news and insight FlightGlobal.com Fresson takes new direction Project to deliver green powertrain for iconic Islander switches course with move to hyrdogen fuel cells, but change leads Rolls-Royce to depart consortium

Ultra-lightweight fuel tanks will be

eld Aerospace Solutions eld Aerospace fi tted via existing pylon modifi cation Cranfi

Dominic Perry London absolutely get the range”, but depending on the engine. That with the additional weight on top equates to a fl ight time of 1h, with a of the batteries, particularly when 45min reserve. UK initiative to develop a taking safety and redundancy into Hutton argues that when the retrofi table green propul- account, “you end up producing consortium analysed how the fl eet sion system for the Brit- the same or more carbon than the is used “a very large percentage” ten-Noman BN-2 Islander original aircraft.” of operators indicated that the 1h Ahas dramatically switched course, Instead, a fuel cell system using fl ight time was suffi cient. abandoning a previous drive to- gaseous hydrogen is being pur- In addition, Jenny Kavanagh, wards hybrid-electric power in fa- sued, which Hutton says is “both chief strategy offi cer at CAeS, says vour of hydrogen fuel cells. green and very much commercially operators were keen to retain other Announced in November 2019, viable”, particularly “on this plat- characteristics of the Islander, such Project Fresson involved a con- form and the way that it is used”. as short-fi eld performance and its sortium – led by Cranfi eld Aero- nine-passenger capacity. space Solutions (CAeS) – that was First fl ight But crucially, hydrogen power awarded a £9 million ($12.6 million) A fi rst fl ight of the demonstrator should off er a signifi cant opera- government grant for the work. aircraft is still envisaged in 2022, tional cost saving against the cur- This planned to deliver a “fi rst pas- with CAeS currently negotiating to rent piston-engine options: Hut- senger-carrying sub-regional air- acquire an Islander for the eff ort. ton estimates an annual saving of craft capable of all-electric fl ight” Providing there are no hiccups, en- £150,000-£300,000 depending suitable for short “island hopping” try into service is envisaged in late on useage and cost of hydrogen. missions by 2024. 2023 or early 2024, says Hutton. Maintenance costs should also fall, But Paul Hutton, chief executive However, Islanders powered by in the region of 15% for the whole of CAeS, says that detailed analy- the fuel cell system will have a sig- aircraft and up to 50% for the pro- sis of the electric powertrain op- nifi cant cut in range, which falls to pulsion system alone. tions – pure batteries or hybrid around 100-135nm (200-250km) Lara Harrison, business develop- architectures featuring piston or from 639-728nm at present, ment director at Britten-Norman, turbine range extenders – conclud- ed “around three to four months ago” that they were not viable for “The diff erence with the solution this application. “The battery solution is clearly we are talking about now is that I green, but with this particular plat- form you end up with such a small have something I can take to my range that it’s just not feasible commercially,” he says. customers as a real-world solution” With either a piston or tur- bine range extender “you can Lara Harrison Business development director, Britten-Norman

34 Flight International May 2021 Propulsion Environment

says that there were always “con- piston or R-R turboprop engines, allow for better integration with cerns” around electrification, in respectively rated at 260-300hp the airframe, he says. particular the weight of the bat- (190-220kW) and 320hp; by com- Hutton concedes a clean-sheet teries, as well as the infrastructure parison each fuel cell system will design could be better optimised and length of time required to re- provide 250kW of power. around the new powertrain, but says charge them. The composite hydrogen fuel that would not offer the “quickest “The difference with the solution tanks will be fitted underneath the way” to improve the industry’s envi- we are talking about now is that I Islander’s wings using an existing ronmental performance. have something I can take to my pylon modification. Similarly, although using liquid customers as a real-world solution Innovatus’s SHyFT multi-cham- hydrogen increases the energy for them,” she says. ber tanks are a “key enabler” density of the fuel, the cooling and Should the powertrain developed for the system, says the Scottish storage requirements “pose a dif- by Project Fresson gain certifica- company’s business development ferent level of complexity”. tion, CAeS will offer it as a retro- director Stuart McIntyre. Their ul- “You don’t want to add that fit solution, while a line-fit option tra-lightweight design and con- complexity when you don’t need will be available direct from Brit- struction and flexible form factor to,” he says. ◗ ten-Norman. A number of current operators, both in the UK and elsewhere, have been approached as potential “ear- SATE should slake appetite for dedicated test facility ly adopters” for route-proving tri- als, Harrison adds. The UK’s ambitions to develop an environmentally friendly air She says the development will be transport system will be aided through the creation of a dedicated an “iterative process” and dangles test environment in the north of Scotland. the prospect of a future “next-gen- Under the Sustainable Aviation Test Environment (SATE) project, eration Islander” to be built around a new facility will be set up at Kirkwall airport in the Orkney Islands the fuel cell technology. to support the evaluation of new propulsion technologies and the However, the change in archi- required airport infrastructure. tecture also sees the consortium Jointly funded by the UK’s Future Flight Challenge and industry, the altered: Rolls-Royce, which was to £3.7 million ($5 million) project will explore how to implement zero- provide the power management carbon airport infrastructure using green energy sources, and trial system, has opted to leave, along new clean aircraft. with subcontractors Delta Motor- Led by Highlands & Islands Airports (HIAL), the consortium includes sport and WMG. energy providers, academia, aircraft developers Ampaire, ZeroAvia and Windracers, and Scottish carrier Loganair. Future opportunities Implementation of the facility will be led by engineering consultancy For its part, R-R says that due to Arcadis, which was recently appointed to the role by HIAL. The the simplification of the architec- project, which began last November, will run for an initial 18 months. ture, its power management sys- Kirkwall airport was selected as an ideal test environment, due in tem was no longer needed. “Rolls- part to its relatively quiet airspace but also because of its role as a Royce will take the learning it has hub airport, with a variety of short-haul routes connecting Orkney’s acquired from the project and in- island communities. corporate it into future opportuni- In addition, “Orkney provides options to fly over water, in a ties in this sphere,” it says. challenging environment and climate, for real-world application The UK company continues to testing of the technologies,” according to the project’s funding research the use of hydrogen in application documents. aviation and stresses that this de- cision does not reflect its overall view of hydrogen as a potential propulsion technology. Appointed in the place of the de- parting firms are engineering ser- vices company Ricardo, which will supply the fuel cells and associat- ed systems, plus hydrogen storage provider Innovatus Technologies. Ricardo is not developing the fuel cell stacks itself, says An- drew Ennever, the firm’s solution lead for the technology. Instead, it brings its expertise to the re-en- gineering of the balance of plant around the fuel cell stack, and to the management and control of the overall system. Kirkwall was selected for its quiet Islander aircraft are currently airspace and position as Orkney’s hub

powered by either twin Lycoming Arab/Shutterstock Kilted

May 2021 Flight International 35 Visit FlightGlobal Premium for all the latest aviation news and insight FlightGlobal.com

Airbus warms to cryogenic cooling Manufacturer launches powertrain demonstrator to investigate materials Future aircraft will benefit from lighter systems as a result of research for next-generation electric propulsion Airbus

David Kaminski-Morrow London While there are already propulsion “We want to do that because options for lower-power aircraft, he the objective of the project is not says the technology will “be an ena- to be specific to an aircraft [type] irbus has embarked on bler” for high-power designs. but demonstrate the feasibility and a programme to build a Superconducting materials that potential of technologies for an air- powertrain demonstra- lose their resistivity when cryo- craft application,” he says, pointing tor showing the potential genically cooled to extremely low out that a light vertical take-off air- Aof cryogenically cooled supercon- temperatures are already used in craft might require “a few hundred ducting materials to reduce weight systems such as medical scanners, kilowatts” but a long-range aircraft and improve the efficiency of power electrical power grid transmission, would require “multi-megawatt” conversion for electric propulsion. and particle accelerators. power generation. Electric propulsion prospects NASA and other research agen- The ASCEND powertrain would have focused on light, regional air- cies have looked into aerospace ap- include a transmission system, tak- craft because the power demanded plications for superconductors and ing electrical power via supercon- for larger, longer-range types can- Ybanez says Airbus research indi- ducting cables and connectors to not be achieved without installing cates a potential halving of power- a motor control unit and then, with prohibitively heavy systems and train weight and electrical losses, as DC power converted to AC, a super- generating large amounts of heat. well as a reduction in the voltage conducting motor to generate me- But the shift toward electrical required to less than 500V. chanical thrust. designs raises the possibility of Alongside this transmission sys- using low-temperature supercon- Voltage reduction tem a cryogenic system would pro- ducting materials to increase pow- He says the voltage reduction is vide cooling to the superconduct- er density, enabling a reduction in “very interesting for aircraft” be- ing components. weight of electric current trans- cause high voltage presents prob- Airbus has already started explor- mission systems. lems such as arcing, requiring elec- ing the possibilities presented by Airbus will design and build the trical network protection. liquid hydrogen as a fuel for future demonstrator over the next three “If you want to develop low- or zero-emission engines. years under a project called AS- zero-emission aircraft you have to Liquid hydrogen, which exists at CEND led by electric power tech- address two main problems: energy temperatures of around 20 Kelvin nology specialist Ludovic Ybanez. storage, and conversion from ener- (-253°C/-423°F) offers a source of “If we succeed it will be clearly gy to propulsion,” he says. “ASCEND cooling for a superconducting cir- a breakthrough in electric pro- is focused on the conversion part.” cuit. Since liquid hydrogen has to pulsion for aircraft,” Ybanez tells The project will explore develop- be heated from this temperature FlightGlobal. “It’s a game-changer ment of a “generic” powertrain, he for injection into a fuel cell, using for aircraft.” says, in the 500kW range. it as a heat-exchanger to cool a

36 Flight International May 2021 Technology Research

cryogenic powertrain would be a “win-win situation”, says Ybanez. “If you want to develop low- or But he points out that there are safety issues with distributing liq- zero-emission aircraft you have to uid hydrogen, which Airbus will need to avoid. address two main problems: energy ASCEND will look at another sce- nario, without liquid hydrogen on storage, and conversion from board, with a neutral coolant such as liquid nitrogen or helium. energy to propulsion” Ybanez adds that, although the overall superconducting system Ludovic Ybanez Electric power technology specialist, Airbus needs to be cold, around 30-50 Kelvin, the different components of the powertrain might require indi- global system is very good,” he hybrid propeller powerplants – by vidual temperatures – perhaps 80 says. “We’ve launched the project the end of 2023. Kelvin for cables, 100-150 Kelvin for because we don’t think we will have Ybanez says that, once the pow- conventional semiconductors – and show-stoppers. But we will have dif- ertrain demonstrator has been the project will look at changing ficult points to address.” completed, it will enable decisions the temperature of liquid hydrogen Ybanez is encouraged, however, to be made on whether the tech- or developing specific cooling sys- by initial research focusing on the nology is sufficiently mature to tems for certain components. behaviour of semiconductors at develop a specific powertrain for ASCEND will investigate feasibili- low temperatures. flight testing. ty of the system to “identify poten- Airbus, through its UpNext future Some of the technology – such as tial show-stoppers and kill them – or technology subsidiary, will con- that used in terrestrial applications kill the project”, he says, and ana- struct the powertrain demonstrator – is already available, and part of lyse whether overall performance at its E-Aircraft System House out- the strategy will focus on how to in- benefits from the technology. side Munich, and test solutions that tegrate it into aircraft, while Ybanez “Just because one system is can be adapted to a range of en- believes other aspects could be very good doesn’t mean the gines – turboprops, turbofans and ready by around 2030. ◗

Faury insists 2035 is ‘credible’ timeline for zero-emission aircraft

Airbus chief executive Guillaume Faury insists a because it gives the aerospace industry five years 2035 entry-into-service horizon for zero-emission to mature the technology. aircraft is “credible”, given the advancing work on He says that the industry is “working on that now, hydrogen power. big time”. Six months ago the airframer unveiled proposed Another two years would be necessary to prepare designs for zero-emissions aircraft, including a to launch an aircraft programme – sourcing funding blended-wing body concept and finding production alongside more conventional locations – before a formal twinjet and turboprop launch around 2027-2028, configurations. giving another seven or eight “We think it’s going to years before introduction to happen,” said Faury, speaking service, Faury says. during a Eurocontrol-hosted “That’s very credible,” he event on 30 March. “These says. “It doesn’t mean all are different architectures solutions are on the table.” we’re looking at – among Although hydrogen fuel is others – these are the main “not a new technology”, he ones we’re looking at for says, a “lot of engineering” future hydrogen aircraft.” will be necessary to adapt Faury says the blended- it safely and reliably to

wing concept is “very Press/Shutterstock Press/Zuma Manuel Blondeau/Aop commercial aerospace. interesting”, because it Hydrogen power has ‘big momentum’, says Airbus chief Faury also stresses that a is “well-suited for a high new regulatory framework is volume of fuel inside the aircraft” – pointing out required, as well as a “level playing-field” for those that hydrogen is “bulky” compared with kerosene- regulations, plus “large quantities of decarbonised based fuel. hydrogen at airports” by 2035. “To go a certain distance needs more volume “Obviously we’re far from being there,” he says. of fuel on board and that’s why we’re looking at But he adds that there is “big momentum” on different architectures,” he states. hydrogen technology in a number of industries. Faury says the 2035 timeframe for hydrogen fuel “We think that’s really good to see, very technology’s entry-into-service “makes sense” encouraging,” he says.

May 2021 Flight International 37 Technology Investment BA zeroes in on hydrogen Flag carrier invests in propulsion system developer to accelerate development of green powerplants for larger commercial aircraft

ZeroAvia says fuel cell-equipped 50-70-seater will enter service by middle of the decade ZeroAvia

Dominic Perry London but “at the moment hydrogen does Work on that programme will run seem to be emerging as a clear win- “at full speed” with the aim of de- ner for the future”, says Harris. livering a certifiable design by the ritish Airways has become The relationship built through end of 2022. the first airline to invest in Hangar 51 has allowed the airline to Although development will take hydrogen propulsion de- begin considering the operational place on the Dornier 228, discus- veloper ZeroAvia – a move requirements for a switch to hydro- sions with potential operators will Bthat could see the flag carrier re- gen power, including the necessary determine the eventual launch air- place its whole short-haul fleet with fuelling infrastructure. frame. Miftakhov says “the target is zero-emission aircraft by 2050. BA is also “looking at specific to make that decision this year”. Alongside a group of exist- routes where there could be the op- “That’s not necessarily what they ing backers, including the Bill portunity for the early introduction fly today, but based on what capa- Gates-founded Breakthrough En- of hydrogen aircraft,” she says. bility and mission profile they are ergy Ventures, BA contributed to a While adding a sub-100-seat air- looking for,” he adds. total of $24.3 million raised by the craft would not be entirely alien to Additional aircraft types will be California-headquartered start-up. BA – its CityFlyer unit uses 76-98- retrofitted with the ZeroAvia pow- BA declines to reveal how much seat Embraer E-Jets – it currently ertrain via supplemental or amend- it provided for the Series A4 fund- operates no regional turboprops, ed type certificates, he says. ing round, but ZeroAvia says it will a class of aircraft that would gain Miftakhov estimates the Ze- advance the development of a fuel the new propulsion system being roAvia fuel cell system will offer a cell-based powertrain suitable for a developed by ZeroAvia. maintenance saving of around 50% 50-70-seat aircraft. against a turbine-powered 19-seat- Under the accelerated timetable, Single minded er, with a similar fuel cost saving. that aircraft could enter service in But Harris sees the potential for In parallel with HyFlyer II, Ze- 2026, following a 19-seater which is a larger hydrogen-powered sin- roAvia will this year begin initial scheduled to arrive in 2024. gle-aisle arriving from 2030 – a activities on the propulsion system Val Miftakhov, founder and chief timeframe that aligns with Airbus’s which would equip a 50-70-seater, executive of ZeroAvia, says that plans to replace its A320neo family. which would be capable of provid- while he is happy to have secured “As we phase that into the fleet ing 1.6MW to each electric motor. the latest backing, “we are more we believe that by 2050 all short- That development is likely to re- pleased with the level of interest” haul flights could be on zero-emis- quire close collaboration with an shown in the next generation of its sion aircraft,” she says, anticipating airframer. Miftakhov notes that the propulsion system. the arrival of a suitable 180-seater choice of suitable aircraft is limited “The investment is a manifesta- from about 2035 and considering to either the ATR 72 or De Havilland tion of interest – it allows us to cap- BA’s typical replacement cycle. Canada Dash 8-300. ture that demand sooner,” he says. ZeroAvia will later this year per- Further out, co-operation will be ZeroAvia has since January been form the maiden flight of the pow- vital. “For the next size – to power a part of the Hangar 51 technology ertrain for the 19-seater, which is typical single-aisle – the timeline of accelerator run by BA parent IAG. sized to deliver 600kW to each mo- potential engine availability is such Carrie Harris, head of sustainability tor. This is being developed under that it is compatible with new air- at the carrier, says the financial con- the UK government-backed HyFly- frames being designed,” he adds. tribution “gives us the opportunity er II programme. “We could partner on a clean- to solidify our commitment to Ze- Miftakhov says the company is in sheet [design] – it is much more roAvia and to the decarbonisation the process of acquiring a Dornier efficient to do it that way than via of aviation in the long term.” 228 twin-turborop for that effort; a retrofit.” The investment does not commit conversion is to take place at a re- Production of the 600kW system BA to purchase any future aircraft cently acquired site at Cotswold will be in the UK, although a final that use ZeroAvia’s technology, airport in the southwest of England. location is yet to be selected. ◗

38 Flight International May 2021 Opinion

A powerful change

Industry-wide use of sustainable aviation fuels will provide a vital environmental bridging measure until technology’s next propulsion shift, says Geoff Hunt

ommercial aviation has a (CO2) emissions reductions. How- Pratt & Whitney Pratt unique opportunity when it ever, bringing future hyper-effi- Solution exists for aviation to comes to sustainable flight, cient technology to the market and reduce emissions, says Hunt and our industry must use into airline fleets will take time. Cmultiple approaches to address We know how to get there; those the challenge. of us in industry, and our partners We will of course continue to in government, need to get serious will have a meaningful environmen- leverage our technical know-how about a viable path for SAF devel- tal impact – clearly an important and innovation to build future gen- opment, production and distribu- factor given the scale of the chal- erations of ever-more efficient and tion. The latest-generation engine lenge with boosting SAF produc- capable aircraft. technology today can fly on 100% tion capacity. One immediate opportunity to SAFs under test conditions, though Although we are also investigat- radically reduce our dependence modifications to engine compo- ing zero emissions technologies on fossil fuels is to develop a viable nents may be required. This is not a like hydrogen- and electric-pow- and robust sustainable aviation fuel pacing event for the industry. ered propulsion, these do not com- (SAF) infrastructure and market- We need SAFs developed at pete with the drive to implement place as a bridge technology, as we scale. Today, less than 1% of fuel SAFs at scale; in fact they are syn- design and build the future gener- needs are met by their use. Gov- ergistic. The buzz around hydrogen ation of commercial aircraft, pow- ernments can provide the right mix helps build up our capacity for re- ered by hyper-efficient engines. of incentives and funding to stim- newable energy sources that plays At the risk of simplifying matters, ulate supply and demand towards directly into power-to-liquid SAF industry – with appropriate govern- an economically competitive level. production infrastructure. ment support – can develop a via- Pratt & Whitney stands ready to ble, affordable path to using SAFs. Tax credits work with regulatory authorities to Fact: by 2035, 44,000 aircraft are In Europe, we are seeing a move test and develop global standards expected to be in service, and the towards mandating a minimum lev- for SAFs to be used in engines as majority of those will still be flying el of SAF usage, while in the USA, “drop-in” blends at or greater than in 2050 and beyond. Airlines can- the industry is calling for “blend- the 50% blend with kerosene al- not re-fleet entirely when the next er’s” tax credits to reduce the price lowed today. Ideally, we need to generation of technology is intro- differential versus kerosene. Ulti- develop standards to allow any and duced from 2035. mately, we will need both of these all SAFs to be used interchangeably We need a solution that bridges carrots and sticks to lift the growth throughout the world, by any airline the technology gap between now in SAFs beyond the anaemic pro- on any large commercial aircraft. and our sustainable future state. gress to date. The answer to more sustainable A robust SAF infrastructure and There are currently seven SAF aviation is not asking people to marketplace would take us to 2050 production pathways available, and travel less. This is unrealistic, and with a new baseline carbon foot- industry will also need to find a the past year has shown us how print from which the industry will balance to avoid competition with important it is to connect people apply our collective knowledge to food producers for arable land, for and grow economies through af- reduce our footprint even further, instance, by focusing on waste-to- fordable air travel. The answer is in through the diligent development fuel and power-to-liquid solutions. employing smarter, more environ- and use of new technology and in- Transitioning to SAFs provides mentally friendly technologies to novation that it has always shown. benefits beyond reducing CO2 help people and cargo take flight. Advancements in gas turbine emissions. By avoiding the impu- Our industry has proven its ability engines have already reduced fuel rities associated with fossil-based to meet any challenge with practi- consumption and emissions, so the fuels, SAFs will also cut sulphur ox- cal and pragmatic solutions, and near-term flying fleet is performing ide and particulate emissions, which we can, and must, do it again. ◗ better. For example, Pratt & Whit- contribute to contrail formation and See p65 ney’s geared turbofan technology, other climate change impacts. which entered service in 2016, de- These incremental benefits, Geoff Hunt is Pratt & Whitney’s livers 16-20% better fuel efficiency along with those from other ad- senior vice-president, engineering and corresponding carbon dioxide vancements in engine efficiency, & technology

May 2021 Flight International 39

View from the cockpit

Keeping resilient

We hear from an anonymous UK pilot made redundant in the pandemic about further stress caused by the loss of mutual licensing recognition after Brexit – and how to find support

he past year or more has been very challenging for the aviation community. Being a pilot, I was made Tredundant by my former employ- er, and losing my dream job was a heartbreaking blow. While dealing with the impact of the Covid-19-driven downturn, many airlines have understandably stopped or frozen recruitment, re- ducing the chances of re-gaining employment. Now UK pilots are facing the issues that Brexit has brought in terms of licensing trans- fer requirements. This is the first redundancy that I AirTeamImages have experienced, and I would not Covid pandemic suddenly put wish it on anyone. The feeling of brakes on dream job for many isolation – multiplied by the actual isolation of lockdowns – really af- fects your well-being, particularly after being used to frantic flying and had no need to do so at that others are going through. This can schedules and meeting many dif- time, or were hoping that a mutu- really help with your well-being. ferent friends and colleagues each al agreement would be reached as As an independent, not for profit day while line flying. part of the Brexit negotiations. organisation, its goals are to help Having a very supportive family A pilot being faced with so many pilots navigate their return to the and friends helps, but sadly they issues could find themselves in a flightdeck when opportunities do not understand all of the stress- place of despair. emerge. It works to highlight the es that pilots are facing after flying challenges they are facing and sup- into a perfect storm of redundancy, Staying connected ports initiatives to overcome barri- pandemic and now licensing issues. I learned of an organisation called ers where safe and appropriate to After losing my job, I wanted to Resilient Pilot, created during the do so. transfer my UK Civil Aviation Au- pandemic to keep pilots support- The CAA itself has a microsite thority (CAA) Flying Crew Licence ed, current and connected. I have designed to update post-EU exit (FCL) to a European Aviation Safe- found this to be a great help dur- developments, and has delivered ty Agency (EASA) FCL. However, a ing such an uncertain and unprec- several webinars to address the key number of EASA states responded edented time. Supporting pilots to issues that we are facing. These can advising that I would have to re-do keep their licences valid, and re- also be watched on demand via the all 14 Airline Transport Pilot Licence ducing the cost of doing so, is real- resilientpilot.com website. exams, as well as my instrument ly appreciated at this stressful and Pilots affected by the changes rating, English language proficiency financially delicate time. enforced by the UK’s departure test and EASA Class One medical. Having access to support and from the EU have launched a pe- Asking pilots to repeat all of their the latest developments in the in- tition appealing to the UK govern- exams in order to hold the same dustry by way of weekly webinars ment for reciprocal and fair mutual licence gained previously under and offering one-to-one mentoring agreement on the transfer of FCLs the same syllabus and regulations or coaching support is what pilots between the CAA and EASA – causes undue stress, and has a who find themselves in this situa- without the need to repeat exams. massive impact on well-being and tion really need at this time. For more information, see petition. mental health. Even if it is just for a weekly chat parliament.uk/petitions/578133. There was a transfer period about aviation, the connection pro- A second petition, asking the where a pilot could convert their vided reduces the feeling of iso- European Parliament for a similar licence, but many missed this be- lation and the Resilient Pilot team reciprocal agreement, is currently cause they were still employed have empathy with what you and awaiting approval. ◗

May 2021 Flight International 41 Visit FlightGlobal Premium for all the latest aviation news and insight FlightGlobal.com

Embraer recently completed in-flight refuelling qualification work using a pair of KC-390 tanker/transports for the Brazilian air force Embraer Best of the rest Crown Copyright Crown We showcase some of the other notable events covered by the FlightGlobal team between issues

Japan Airlines is retiring its Pratt & Whitney PW4000-powered Boeing 777s, following an uncontained engine failure affecting a US-operated twinjet

The UK Royal Navy has launched operational training with its first Crowsnest airborne surveillance and control-

Viper-Zero/Shutterstock adapted Leonardo Helicopters AW101 Merlin HM2

42 Flight International May 2021 Highlights

This Lufthansa Airbus A350-900 (D-AIXJ) will receive 1.6t of container-housed Lufthansa instruments, for climate research duties United Aircraft United Russia’s Ilyushin Il-112V military transport resumed flight testing on 30 March – exactly two years after its debut sortie

Boeing resumed deliveries of its 787 on 26 March, after a five-month pause, transferring a -9 example to United Airlines United Airlines United

The Israeli air force has welcomed its new Gulfstream G550-based “Oron” surveillance aircraft, ahead of conversion and service entry in 2023 Amit Agronov/Israeli air force air force Amit Agronov/Israeli

May 2021 Flight International 43

June’s issue Next month US defence exports keep soaring as Washington On sale targets 27 May buyers

Fast mover Slow going Racer speeds We review development the business pace after fortunes of big pandemic two airframers black-fl agged while crisis Boeing Airbus Helicopters last year hits demand US Air Force

May 2021 Flight International 45 Dassault’s newest type, the 6X, flew for the first time on 10 March Cyril Cosmao/Dassault Aviation Aviation Cosmao/Dassault Cyril

Murdo Morrison London saw the decline in deliveries slow in the fourth quar- ter, and some believe that optimism will continue in hen the world started shutting down 2021. “I am quite bullish on new airplane sales,” says in March 2020 as Covid-19 took hold, commentator Brian Foley, of Brian Foley Associates. Wbusiness aviation enjoyed an unexpected, “The manufacturers are conditioning shareholders for if short-lived surge. As airlines cancelled a gloomier outlook, but I think the opposite.” thousands of flights, and governments considered He says business aircraft utilisation figures for the border closures, quarantines and stay-indoors orders, first quarter in the USA – the biggest market – were many stranded abroad wanted to get themselves and “almost on a par” with 2019, and, despite stricter their families home quickly. Those who could afford travel rules and higher infection rates, “I suspect it found that the sanitary capsules of private aircraft Europe is just behind”. With continuing negative were the perfect solution. headlines, Foley believes “it is hard to escape the Since then, the sector’s performance has been brain fog to see better days”. However, he is confi- bumpier, although business aviation has fared much dent these will begin with a boost in leisure trips in better than its commercial counterpart. With airline the summer, followed by a return of business travel networks slashed and concerns over catching the in the fourth quarter. virus in crowded airports and cabins, some high- end travellers have switched to private aircraft for essential trips. Many have also managed to fit in “There is a skew to lighter leisure travel – to the likes of Dubai, Florida and ski resorts – when restrictions permitted. aircraft and to weekend However, with even politicians, Hollywood stars, and captains of industry forced to communicate travel. You can also see it in virtually from their houses for much of the past year, business aviation has not escaped the impact. This the destinations – Florida has affected new aircraft deliveries. Figures from the General Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA) and ski country taking the revealed that shipments of business jets in 2020 were one-fifth lower than in the previous year, with GAMA place of business cities like noting that pandemic-led supply-chain disruption contributed to the drop. New York and Chicago” While the global situation remains uncertain, a new confidence on the back of vaccine breakthroughs Adam Cowburn Director, Alton

46 Flight International May 2021 Business aviation Programmes

The pandemic has buffeted private aviation more lightly than its commercial cousin – some areas have done surprisingly well. But Covid-19 continues to have an impact, with activity and sales down Open for business Adam Cowburn, a director with aviation consul- tancy Alton, says that, in the USA at least, leisure travel “is driving the traffic trend”, with fewer people using business aircraft for business. “You can see it in the aircraft mix,” he says. “There is a skew to lighter aircraft and to weekend travel. You can also see it in the destinations – Florida and ski country taking the place of business cities like New York and Chicago. People have been getting off light jets in shorts rath- er than heavier jets in suits.”

European exception In Europe, the situation has been different. There, tighter lockdowns and a “greater pullback in sched- uled airline activity” could be a possible driver for business aviation this year, if demand for essential travel recovers more quickly than airlines are able to reinstate services, Cowburn believes. Different national travel rules could also hamper recovery, with cross-border business aviation travel lagging domestic activity in the USA by 12 to 18 months, he suggests. Like almost all industry events in the past year, the two main annual business aviation fixtures – EBACE in Geneva and NBAA BACE in the USA – fell victim to Covid-19 in 2020. EBACE 2021, due to have taken place in May, has also been replaced with a virtual pro- 100 gramme. BACE is scheduled for Las Vegas in October, Between them Air Canada and WestJet are operating 55% but this will mean manufacturers will not have had an of the aircraft they were flying a year agoTis eatur simos se opportunity to showcase products, schedule press conferences or meet customers for two years. Consultant Brian Foley predicts With product development having continued European business travel will throughout the crisis, some believe NBAA BACE 2021 rebound by the year end could therefore see an outpouring of delayed launch-

Brian Foley Associates Brian Foley es and programme updates by airframers. Dassault

May 2021 Flight International 47 – rumoured to have had an announcement on a new top-of-the-range type originally lined up for EBACE 2020 – flew its newest product to date, the Falcon 6X, for the first time on 10 March. Service entry 15 for the Pratt & Whitney Canada PW812D-powered, ultra-wide-cabin jet is due late next year. The French manufacturer could certainly do with Orders for Dassault Falcon in 2020, compared some fresh blood in its family. Although Falcon deliver- with 40 in the previous year ies in 2020 were down by just six from 2019’s total of 40, orders fell to just 15 from 40. Seven of these were for a French navy maritime surveillance programme, of the impact of the pandemic but because of the so only eight were business jets. In the company’s withdrawal from production of the older-generation annual results presentation in February, chief execu- G550. The still-young, large-cabin G500 and G600, tive Eric Trappier admitted that “uncertainties led our together with the Israeli-built super-midsize G280, clients not to order new aircraft” in 2020. make up Gulfstream’s range. After a spate of divestments in recent years, Bom- Scaling back bardier is now a business aviation-only manufacturer One of Dassault’s two main rivals, Gulfstream, said in – its rail, regional aircraft, and aerostructures interests January that interest in its ultra-long-range G650 and together with its one-time crown jewel, the CSeries, G650ER was holding up, despite the 2019 launch of have all departed. However, even that side of the its new flagship, the G700. The manufacturer – which Canadian company’s activities is set to get slimmer delivered 127 aircraft in 2020, compared with 147 the after the announcement earlier this year that it would year before – intends to continue offering the G650 be stopping Learjet production later in 2021, after alongside the larger and more expensive G700 after years of struggling sales for the iconic light-jet brand. the latter enters service in late 2022. The decision leaves Bombardier with two ranges Phebe Novakovic, chief executive of Gulfstream – the super-midsize Challenger pairing, and the parent General Dynamics, warned late last year that large-cabin, long-range Global family. In terms of 2021 deliveries were likely to slip again for the Savan- 2020 deliveries, Bombardier almost kept pace with nah, Georgia-based airframer, not so much because Gulfstream, with shipments falling by 28 to 114 units

Bombardier’s fortunes are closely tied to performance of flagship Global 7500 Bombardier

48 Flight International May 2021 Business aviation Programmes

G500 and G600 are key members of Gulfstream’s large-cabin offering Gulfstream Gulfstream

deliver almost 200 large-cabin jets in a good year. Airbus believes it can steal a piece of that pie with a product whose main selling point will be its 73sq m (786sq ft) cabin. However, drawbacks are its relative lack of speed and a range of 5,650nm (10,400km), which leaves it short of the 7,500nm or more offered by its rivals. Embraer, which has also dipped a toe in that large-cabin segment with its airliner-derived Lineage and Legacy 650, has done much better in the small- er-sized market, where its Phenom 300 is the strong- est selling light jet. The Brazilian manufacturer also has Airbus two new midsize contenders in the recently reworked Airbus launched the ACJ TwoTwenty Praetor 500 and Praetor 600. It delivered 86 aircraft in in late 2020, based on the A220-100 2020, down from 109 the previous year.

All change versus the previous year. While the Challengers Like Bombardier, Embraer has had its convulsions at continue to dominate their segment, much depends a boardroom level, after a planned joint venture with on the success of the flagship Global 7500, which Boeing on the commercial aviation side collapsed in entered service in late 2018 and the 50th example of April 2020. However, its corporate aviation activities, which was delivered in March. which it launched two decades ago, remain a key part Bombardier, Dassault and Gulfstream have had the of its future. Its most significant development in 2020 top end of business aviation to themselves for decades was the December delivery of the first Praetor 600 to – although Airbus and Boeing have offered airliner- launch customer Flexjet, part of a 64-aircraft deal for derived ranges. Now, however, Airbus plans to take Embraer types announced in 2019. on the likes of the Global 7500 and the G700 with a Textron Aviation – behind the Cessna and Beech- business jet adapted from the A220-100 – formerly craft brands – remains the biggest player in business the smaller of Bombardier’s CSeries pair – launching aviation in unit terms. It delivered 559 aircraft in 2020, the ACJ TwoTwenty in late 2020. Deliveries will start in including 132 Citation jets, down from 600 (206 jets) early 2023, with Comlux among initial customers. the previous year. The Wichita, Kansas-based manu- While the larger airliner-derived segment is highly facturer’s in-development products are the delayed profitable but tiny – mostly head-of-state transports Denali single-engined turboprop and the twin- – Bombardier, Dassault and Gulfstream can together turboprop SkyCourier, although in February 2021 it

May 2021 Flight International 49 50 manufacturer ofthedistinct Avanti twin-pusher. companies keen onacquiring PiaggioAerospace, state-appointed administrator hasshortlisted four the manufacturing operations behindthem.AnItalian once-innovative business aircraft programmes and general aviation safety inyears. hailed asoneofthemost importantdevelopments in aircraft ifthepilotbecomes incapacitated andhasbeen differently, isdesigned to take control ofandlandthe respectively. The device, whicheachairframer brands single-engined Vision Jet,theTBM940, andtheM600, certification ofGarmin’s autoland safety system onthe cant developments ofthepast 12monthshasbeenthe cal performance to 2019. its PC-12 single-enginedturboprop: analmost identi- shipped 40examples in2020, alongwith83unitsof at theturnofyear. The Swiss manufacturer the light-jetsegment,Pilatus’s PC-24, was 2019 to 31in2020. The 100thexample ofitsrival in HA-420 HondaJet,heldupwell, falling from 36in 2020. Deliveries ofHondaAircraft’s soleproduct, the Covid-19 crisisonthebackofareasonably strong Other manufacturers entered thesecond year ofthe Brighter spots 5X andledto itsreplacement withthe6X. advertised, somethingthatalsoputpaidto Dassault’s the failure ofSafran’s Silvercrest engineto deliver as 4,500nm-range type’s unveiling. That was triggered by isphere programme inmid-2019, four years after the remain onholdfollowing thesuspensionofHem- Bombardier’s Challenger650andDassault’s 2000LXS large-cabin segmentto compete withthelikes of popular today. great 1960s’expansion ofgeneral aviation remain improvements, several ofthetypesintroduced inthe eries in2020. This illustrates how, withregular, subtle dominate thetwin-turboprop market, with62deliv- been inproduction for almost 60years, continues to launched KingAir360. The KingAir family, whichhas Air variant, the260, asmallersiblingto itsrecently CJ4, rebranding thelightjetCJ4Gen2. Business aviation did unveil acabinupdate for its11-year-old Citation Flight International A question mark remains over thefuture oftwo For Cirrus,DaherandPiper, oneofthemost signifi- Textron’s However, Late last year, Textron alsointroduced anew King May 2021 ambitions to move into the Programmes midsize updates to Embraer’s range Praetor 600is oneoftwo recent delivered

Embraer Cirrus Aircraft the market.” the Zoom effect, alongwithnew entrants coming into visit factories andto meetface to face willcancel out business co-ordination,” says Foley. “But thatneedto ings for humaninteraction. movers andshakers desperate to ditch virtualmeet- industry doforesee better timesahead,withbusiness tunities withthecancellation ofEBACE, many inthe of theirbiggest networking andpromotional oppor- cancel investment inproduct development. cash-constrained manufacturers forced to delay or cast ashadow over theindustry for sometime, with originalvery-light jet,theEclipse 500. of Eclipse, the Albuquerque enterprise behindthe becamethelatest investor to take ontheassets due to openitsdoorsinLasVegas. different come October 2021, whenNBAA BACE is variants –theindustry landscape could lookvery on track andthere are nosurpriseswithjab-resistant pandemic, and–assuming vaccine roll-outs remain feeling ofdejavu12monthson. few inbusiness aviation imaginedthere would bea unprecedented step ofpullingtheplugonEBACE, will beattracted by private aviation.” be thatfear ofCovid, sopeopleofacertain wealth of pent-updemand,” hesays. “H holding backonarranging meetings,sothere isalot business travel following from September. ly inthesummer, withleisure leadingtheway, and demand throughout Europe willpickupsubstantial- viation UK,believes that,after a“tough” start to 2021, ing acustomer face to face, you cannotafford not to.” competitive impacttoo –ifyour business rival isvisit- structural brake ondemand,” hesays. “And there isthe in once immediate healthfears abate. “There isno examples shippedduring2020 Total deliveries ofPilatus PC-24 asofearly2021, with40 100 receive autoland Garmin system Vision Jetisoneofthree typesto “Yes, platforms like Zoom willremain importantfor However, As well astheeffect ontravel, Covid-19 islikely to Meanwhile, anentitycalledAMLlate last year However, However, This timelast year, after organisers hadtaken the “People are desperate to getaway, andhave been George managingdirector Galanopoulos, ofLuxa- Cowburn agrees thatarecovery willquicklykick despite manufacturers beingdeniedone six monthshasproved alongtimeinthe owever, Z there willstill

Upping the pace

The determined band of airframers keen to see a reintroduction of supersonic passenger services are busy working with suppliers, backers and regulators to turn their plans into reality

Boom’s conceptual Overture airliner will fl y at Mach 2.2 Boom Supersonic

52 Flight International May 2021 Boom Supersonic I Jon Hemmerdinger Flight Research to assist withfl hired Mojave, California-based aerospace company and fl low-speed taxitests atCentennial airportinColorado, XB-1 duringaslickvirtualevent. passenger airlinercalledOverture. and designsultimately intended for aconceptual which thecompany intends to evaluate technologies gle-pilot, tripleGEAviation J85-15-powered craft with to ensure itsfl of theaircraft, from landinggear to avionics systems, grated testing phase, where we are testing allaspects Boom tells FlightGlobal.“XB-1 iscurrently intheinte- “XB-1 remains ontrack to fl Evaluating technologies gy (QueSST) demonstrator. development ofitsX-59 QuietSupersonicTechnolo- Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) andNASA’s US government, includingrulesbeingwritten by the align withsupersonicprojects underway withthe will befl Boom Supersonic,rolling outademonstrator jet. known aerospace executives and,inthecaseof (including enginemakers), liningupbuyers, hiring past year partneringwithmajoraerospace suppliers to makingtheirprojects areality. several civilsupersonicjetdevelopers stepped closer to debate, butthere isnodoubtthat inthepast year world’s distant cities. supersonic jetswillagainbezippingbetween the in thefuture –beit2030, 2050, orwhenever –civil t seemsreasonable to assume thatat somepoint to make itsfi XB-1 supersonicdemonstrator isoncourse The XB-1’s test programme willinvolve ground and In October 2020, Boomrolled outtheneedle-nosed XB-1 isBoom’s supersonicdemonstrator –asin- All ofthisduringapandemic. Several companies predict theirsupersonicjets The handfulofcompanies inthesector spentthe Exactly whenthat timemightcome remains open ight tests over theMojave Desert. Boomhas ying by 2030, ifnotearlier. Andtheireff rst fl ight readiness.” ight duringthisyear Tampa y in2021,” Denver-based ight testing. orts throughout theXB-1 programme withtheselearnings.” have beenadvancing Overture’s conceptual design we have builtthrough XB-1,” thecompany adds.“We cesses, designmethods,principlesandrelationships review… andfi ture, itsfocus on“completing thesystems defi monitored by achaseaircraft andacontrol room.” tal build-upoftheaircraft performance whilebeing Boom says. “This willbedonethrough anincremen- expand theenvelope ofXB-1 to supersonicspeeds,” by 2029,” Boomsays. follow in2026. the world witharoll-out in2025. First fl manufacturing in2022 andto reveal theaircraft to which to manufacture theOverture. Itaimsto begin some 500transoceanic routes. and, Boomsays, becapableofprofi senger airlinerthatwillcost upwards of$200million ensure itsfl avionics systems, to from landinggearto aspects oftheaircraft, where we are testing all integrated testing phase, “XB-1 iscurrently inthe Boom Supersonic “We are buildingOverture [by] leveraging thepro- All thewhile, Boomwillcontinue developing Over- “The goalofthefl “We expect Overture to begincarryingpassengers Also thisyear, Boom expects to selectalocationat The Overture isto beaMach2.2,65-to 88-pas- nalising Overture’s design”,itsays. ight-test programme isto safely ight readiness” Cover story May 2021 tably operating Flight International ight would Supersonics nition 53 Virgin Galactic 54 financial services company. Express Ventures, theinnovation finance arm of that investment ofanundisclosed sumfrom American other structures. Overture team asdeveloper ofthejet’s nacelles and ly bebasedonaTrent turbofan’s core. R-R hassaidanOverture powerplant could potential- for supersonicflight”, BoomandR-Rsaidlast July. whether “existing enginearchitecture canbeadapted gine partnerfor theOverture, agreeing to evaluate Philip Condit hadjoinedasanadviser. it announced thatformer Boeingchiefexecutive its team andcadre ofindustry partners.InFebruary, tually buildmore unitsthanBoeing hasproduced 787s. ed theOverture willbesuchahitthatBoomeven- jets, Boomsays. Group hasalsotaken “pre-orders” for 10Overture purchase rightsfor 20jetsintheprocess. Virgin in 2017invested $10millioninthecompany, taking airline customers. Those includeJapanAirlines,which 2040, according to aerospace consultancy AIR Number ofcivilsupersonicjets thatwillbedelivered by 300 reaching Mach3.0 andcruisinghigherthan60,000ft Virgin delta-wing Galactic’s civiljetwillbecapableof Flight International More recently, inMarch, Boomreceived acapital Last November, Collins Aerospace alsojoinedthe Rolls-Royce cameonboard in2020 asanen- As theXB-1 hasprogressed, Boomhasbeefed up Founder andchiefexecutive Blake Schollhaspredict- Boom hasalready secured atleast two potential May 2021 ter ofthetotal andgovernments 17%,AIRpredicts. half ofthosejets,withprivate owners takingone-quar- Fractional aircraft ownership companies will buyabout rates hittingabout30aircraft annuallyinthe2030s. than 300civilsupersonicjetsby 2040, withdelivery tancy AIR.Itpredicts manufacturers willdeliver more will come to market, according to aerospace consul- various technological andregulatory hurdles, thejets “Mach cut-off”, whichoccurs when atmosphericand “Mach cut-off”, sonic boomby leveraging aphenomenoncalled service in2027. Aerion says itwillsoften the AS2’s the AS2 to make itsmaidenflight in2025 andenter fleet ofmore than750 aircraft. the world’s largest operators ofbusiness jets,witha ing isnosmallaccomplishment –itis,after all,among sonic flighttraining academy”, Aerion says. Connect. FlightSafety willhelpAerion create a“super- operator onaplannedbookingportalcalledAerion 5,400nm range atM0.95, according to Aerion. and have a4,200nm(7,780km) range atM1.4,anda turbofans, thejetwill carryeightto 10passengers purchase 20AS2s. Powered by three GEAffinity ation training provider FlightSafety International. fractional aircraft ownership company NetJetsandavi- partnership withtwo Berkshire Hathaway subsidiaries: ing forward development ofabusiness jet calledAS2. Supersonic, hasalsokept busy inrecent months, push- Another supersonicplayer, Boeing-backed Aerion NetJets backsAerion Though thecivilsupersonicsector must overcome Aerion isworking alongatimelinethat callsfor While far from afirmorder, securingNetJets’back- NetJets alsoagreed to become thesolebusiness jet Under theagreement, NetJetsacquired rightsto Aerion madeasplashinMarch whenitrevealed a Cover story Supersonics

The Boston-based company is also evaluating loca- tions at which to house a manufacturing site, and is seeking a partner to assist with fabrication, he adds. Spike aims to develop the S-512, a twin-engined, M1.6 civil jet, for certifi cation by 2028. The company has spent the past year fi nalising the S-512’s design to ensure it meets range, effi ciency and sound requirements. Spike says the S-512 will be suited for both overwater and overland fl ights, thanks to Aerion AS2 is due to fl y in 2025 aerodynamic features that will ensure it does not gen- and enter service in 2027

Aerion Supersonic Aerion erate a “loud, disturbing sonic boom on the ground”. In a shift, Spike increasingly views the airline mar- Exosonic is developing M1.8 jet ket as the most opportunistic for the S-512. Spike had with military application pitched the aircraft primarily as a 12- to 18-passenger business jet. “It is now the primary market we are going for,” Kachoria says of the airline sector. “We defi - nitely believe it’s going to be the game changer here.” The S-512, outfi tted with up to 22 fi rst-class seats, would be perfect for operating long-haul routes such as New York to Liverpool or Marseille, Kachoria says. In February, Spike said it had partnered with Indian company Tech Mahindra, which will assist it with stress analysis and fuselage work. Aerospace veter- ans have also joined Spike’s team in the past year, including Bill Boisture, who has been chief executive Exosonic Exosonic 4,200 fl ight conditions cause booms to defl ect up, not down, according to the company. Like Boom, Aerion has secured an impressive array Range in nautical miles of the Aerion AS2, fl ying at M1.4. of suppliers as partners. Universal Avionics will make The jet will be powered by three GE Affi nity turbofans the AS2’s enhanced fl ight vision system, BAE Sys- tems will develop a fl y-by-wire fl ight-control sys- tem and Spirit AeroSystems is working on the jet’s of Hawker Beechcraft, president and chief operating forward fuselage. Other partners include Aernnova, offi cer of Gulfstream Aerospace and president of Collins, GKN Aerospace, Honeywell, Potez, Safran NetJets. Others include former Virgin Australia Air- Landing Systems and Safran Nacelles. lines group executive John Thomas, Boeing and Das- Aerion also stands out from the pack for its pro- sault Aviation veteran Brian Foley, and Ray Benvenuti, gress in building an actual manufacturing site for its a fi nance executive who had been chief executive supersonic jet. Before year-end, it is to break ground of Stellex Aerostructures. on Aerion Park, a campus and headquarters in Mel- In 2020 another supersonic developer joined the bourne, Florida, at which AS2 production will begin in fray: Virgin Galactic. In August last year, the company 2023, the company says. unveiled the design of a R-R-powered, delta-wing civil Another competitor, Spike Aerospace, intends this jet capable of reaching speeds of M3.0, carrying nine year to begin building a supersonic demonstrator and to 19 passengers and cruising higher than 60,000ft. to fl y that manned aircraft “toward the end of next year”, says founder and chief executive Vik Kachoria. Military transports While the supersonic developers are eyeing the civilian aviation market, executives have said their products could be adapted for use by governments or militaries. Indeed, a 3 March report from the US government’s Congressional Research Service highlights several potential government applications for superson- ic passenger jets. They could carry heads of state during times of confl ict, or be used to shuttle nuclear warheads to forward bases, enabling such weapons to be stored in more-secure facilities in the USA, the report says. Supersonic jets could also be deployed on urgent humanitarian or special-operations mis- sions, such as those involving hostage rescue or Spike Aerospace Aerospace Spike embassy defence, it adds. Spike says its S-512 will be suited for The US Air Force (USAF) has shown interest. In overwater and overland operations 2020, several companies – among them Boom, Los

May 2021 Flight International 55 Cover story Supersonics

“We are predicting first flight to be late spring, early summer timeframe 2022”

Craig Nickol Head of NASA’s Low-Boom Flight Demonstrator project Lockheed Martin Lockheed X-59’s long, slender fuselage design should greatly soften its sonic boom

Angeles-based Exosonic and Atlanta-based Her- system and attached wing skins. Workers have also meus – won contracts to begin developing a super- attached the jet’s empennage to its fuselage, and sonic military executive transport. are “getting ready to mate the fuselage to the wing”, “We are showing the air force what an executive Nickol said in March. “Structurally, we should have cabin can look like at 1.8 times the speed of sound,” what looks like an aircraft within a few weeks.” says Norris Tie, who co-founded Exosonic several The X-59 has features intended to significantly soften years ago with chief technical officer Tim MacDonald. its sonic boom. It has a long, slender fuselage, and most Exosonic has been working to develop a 70-seat external features are atop – not below – its fuselage. M1.8 civil supersonic jet with 5,000nm range, for ser- Powered by a single 22,000lb-thrust (95kN) GE vice entry in the mid-2030s. It also is tweaking that F414-100 engine, the X-59 will achieve speeds of M1.4 design for potential military applications. and cruise at 55,000ft, NASA says. The company's conceptual 31-passenger military The agency has already received two F414s – one transport, developed with the USAF’s Presidential and primary, one spare – and will conduct an engine Executive Airlift Directorate, would be outfitted with “fit check” this summer, Nickol says. two private suites: one for three passengers, the other The X-59’s initial “checkout flights” will be con- for eight. The jet would also have 20 business-class ducted from Palmdale. Next, the team will move the seats, two galleys and two lavatories, Exosonic says. demonstrator to NASA’s Armstrong Flight Research Center in Edwards, California, where they will put it X-59 advances through a two-part flight-test programme. As the various companies work to bring superson- The first phase of flight testing will last about nine ic civil jets to market, the US government has been months and involve envelope expansion and airwor- advancing related efforts. thiness evaluations. NASA will then take ownership In January, the FAA finalised a rule intended to ease of the jet from Lockheed and begin the second the process by which companies obtain approvals to flight-test phase, also lasting about nine months and perform civil supersonic flight tests. That followed a involving “acoustic validation” – measuring the sonic March 2020 proposed rule to establish noise stand- boom, Nickol says. ards – only at take-off and landing – for a new class of supersonic aircraft. The noise proposal begins the Sound checks FAA’s process of again permitting overland civil super- NASA intends to deploy the X-59 between 2024 and sonic flight, which it has essentially banned since 1973. 2026 on “community overflight testing” missions, But overturning that ban requires the industry to during which it will fly the jet over the USA and sur- solve the primary roadblock: disturbance caused by vey public reaction to the noise. Regulators can use sonic booms. NASA is hard at work addressing that that data to write supersonic flight rules, NASA says. issue through development of the X-59, a jet intend- NASA has hired Santa Clara, California-based Crys- ed to demonstrate a so-called “low-boom” design. tal Instruments to provide equipment that will meas- Lockheed Martin is designing and manufacturing the ure the X-59’s boom. The system will collect “wave- X-59 at its famed Skunk Works site in Palmdale, Cali- form and spectral data related to sonic booms and fornia, and will be performing X-59 test flights. sonic thumps”, and enable NASA to “perform various NASA had aimed to have the X-59 airborne this year. specialised operations for real-time sonic-thump But production shutdowns and delayed component analysis”, NASA says. The agency will initially deploy deliveries – blame Covid-19 – forced the team to push the system at Armstrong and later in a 30nm-long back first flight until 2022, says Craig Nickol, head of “ground microphone array” near Edwards AFB. NASA’s Low-Boom Flight Demonstrator project. The X-59’s design should mean that its boom, meas- The team has overcome some relatively minor de- ured on the ground, will be less than 75 perceived dB – sign issues that have required some rework, but has like “distant thunder”, Nickol has said. By comparison, faced “no major showstoppers”, he says. Concorde had a boom of 105 perceived dB. “We are predicting first flight to be late spring, “All of our predications are currently pointing to- early summer timeframe 2022,” says Nickol. ward the fact that this aircraft should be able to meet The team recently “closed out” manufacturing those requirements,” Nickol says. “It looks good, and of the X-59’s wing, having installed the wing’s fuel we don’t see any issues hitting that mark.” Z

56 Flight International May 2021

The idea of eVTOL aircraft carrying passengers above crowded cities has rapidly moved from pie-in-the-sky to near-term prospect – but can public perception keep pace with the technology? Upwardly mobile Kate Sarsfield London “Investment in start-ups hit $907 million in the first half of 2020 – almost 20 times the level in the whole of 2016,” says the report. This interest has continued rban air mobility (UAM) has become the new into 2021, with millions more pumped into the market. frontier in aviation, driven by a desire for small, What has become apparent in recent years, accord- quiet and sustainable aircraft to provide mass ing to Duncan Walker, co-founder and chief executive transportation for intra-city, short-haul and of leading UAM infrastructure developer Skyports, Uregional travel. is the shift in the type of investor. “Huge amounts What seemed like a pipe dream less than a decade of capital are flowing into the sector from blue chip, ago looks set to become a reality, as the sector’s gold plated institutional investors and strategic early movers prepare their innovative, electric vertical partners [such as Uber Technologies, United Airlines, take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft programmes Stellantis and Baron Capital Group].” for commercial service within the next three years. In its recent analysis of the global UAM market, man- agement consultancy Roland Berger forecast there would be around 160,000 eVTOL aircraft in service by 2050, generating annual revenues of $90 billion.

Active programmes “In just a few years [this sector] has gone from ‘pie in the sky’ concepts to a bustling industry with a multi- tude of passenger drones, air taxis and longer-range jets in development or undergoing trials,” says Roland Berger. The report identifies around 100 active pro- grammes in development globally, with more than half based in Europe. “The market’s flight trajectory is clearly only go- ing one way,” says Roland Berger. The consultancy attributes this bullish outlook to the strong backing from investors in UAM developers, despite the “lack Singapore hosted Voloport air taxi trial in 2019

of a proven business model”. Skyports

58 Flight International May 2021 other decade, butmy view hassince changed,” says the UAM market willbecome aphysical reality for an- ard for Europe-based eVTOL aircraft. ness regulations –thededicated certification stand- new specialcondition for VTOL (SC-VTOL) airworthi- European UnionAviation Safety Agency’s (EASA’s) developments suchastheintroduction in2019 ofthe nologies beingdeveloped, andpositive regulatory a maturingindustry, risingconfidence inthetech- likely to happen”. indication thatthey view thismarket aslow risk,and to invest inthefledglingUAM sector “as agood Duncan Walker view hassince changed” for anotherdecade, butmy become aphysical reality the UAM market will have saidthere isnoway “Two years ago, Iwould “Two years ago, Iwould have saidthere isnoway Their backingisalsoareflection, Walker adds,of He describesthewillingness ofthesecompanies Chiefexecutive, Skyports €322 million.“This hasputuson track to launch D fundinground, bringingthetotal investment to million ($239million)inan oversubscribed Series UAM market’s earlypioneers,recently raised €200 commercial officer Christian Bauer. ronmentally-friendly aircraft,” says Volocopter chief date inour quest to create asafe, efficientand envi- “We have notched upover 1,000h onthetest fleetto Environmentally friendly known astheVoloCity. senger, 19nm(35km)-range, 18-motor eVTOL airtaxi, duction version andfourth iteration ofitstwo-pas- is aimingto befirst to market inEurope withthepro- says Walker. demonstrated inreal timetheUAM market inaction,” ers] andatthisevent we andVolocopter successfully has longbeentheprimaryhurdle [for UAM develop- vertiport, dubbedtheVoloport. eVTOL prototype andSkyports’ first full-scaleairtaxi in Singapore’s MarinaBay ofpartnerVolocopter’s 2X 2019, following thesuccessful publicdemonstration create thisnew mass transportation market.” and infrastructure developers to work together to nies, established andstart-up aircraft manufacturers among governments, regulators, technology compa- Walker. “Since then,I’ve witnessed apalpabledesire The Bruschal-headquartered company, oneofthe His view isechoedby Germany’s Volocopter, which “Public acceptance ofthisnew form oftransport A key turningpointfor Walker cameinOctober eVTOL flightsduring2024 Paris Olympics Volocopter’s 2Xcould make commercial Business aviation May 2021 Flight International eVTOL 59

Volocopter Drones are being tried in roles such as organ transport and cargo delivery Annalisa Russell-Smith/Flyby Technology Annalisa Russell-Smith/Flyby

commercial services with VoloCity in 2024 following air vehicles – of which eVTOL types are after all only certification,” says Bauer. an extension – play in everyday lives, such as organ He says gaining public approval of the aircraft and transport and cargo delivery, and illustrate the im- the UAM concept is a primary hurdle if Volocopter is portant developments in this technology. “It’s about to stick to this aggressive timetable. It is working well education and reassurance,” Cervenka says. so far. As well as the public demonstration in Singa- There is also no defined regulatory path for auton- pore, the company has also conducted successful omous passenger vehicles currently, he says, “so the public flights of test aircraft in Dubai, Helsinki, Las industry’s focus for the time being must be on growing Vegas and Stuttgart. public acceptance for the piloted [eVTOL] models”. In September 2019, 12,000 spectators in the Ger- Due to enter service in 2024, the electrically pow- man city took part in a survey led by the University of ered X4 is designed to carry a pilot and four pas- Stuttgart to gauge the public appetite for the 2X. The sengers up to 104nm (192km), which Cervenka says study revealed that nearly 70% of respondents would will “open up the short-haul transport market in a be likely or very likely to use the eVTOL aircraft: a compelling way”. result Bauer describes as “remarkably high”.

Approval rating A survey conducted following the demonstration a month later in Singapore of the full 2X air taxi experience delivered an approval rating of 75%. The 70% majority of respondents at both events noted that the X2’s low noise profile “exceeded their expecta- tions”, says Bauer. Volume of respondents likely to use an eVTOL service, However, feedback from both surveys reveals that among those surveyed at 2019 demonstration in Stuttgart there is little public appetite for autonomous eVTOL operations, which is the end goal for Volocopter and the UAM sector. “The X4 will be one of the safest and quietest pas- “I cannot see pilotless passenger aircraft entering senger aircraft on the market, with a noise footprint service before the end of this decade at the earliest,” 30 times lower than a helicopter in cruise and 100 says Michael Cervenka, chief executive of UK start-up times quieter than a helicopter in hover,” he says. Vertical Aerospace, developer of the five-seat VA-X4 First flight is scheduled later this year from the eVTOL aircraft. company’s Bristol base, and the company plans to “It’s a potentially long journey to automation, which increase public engagement with the X4 through air- will likely come with the rise of the new digital friend- borne demonstrations and marketing surveys as the ly generation,” Cervenka says. programme progresses. To gain the public’s trust in pilotless aircraft, indus- Such is the importance of societal acceptance to try must demonstrate the vital role that unmanned the success of UAM operations that EASA launched

60 Flight International May 2021 Business aviation eVTOL

a dedicated study in November 2020 designed to institutes, the last of these will deal with social and evaluate the public’s appetite for commercial pas- environmental issues. senger eVTOL services. “We expect Pontoise airfield to become a technical Set for publication in May 2021, the study is de- playground and act as a sandbox for acceptability signed, says the regulator, “to gauge EU citizens’ challenges,” says ADP’s head of innovation and cor- preparedness to accept this new mode of transport porate venture Sebastien Couturier. and collect their possible concerns and expectations, He adds that public engagement in the trials will be for instance related to safety, security, privacy and key to the venture’s success. “The local community environmental impact.” will be an active stakeholder in the project and will The study includes research work as well as a be invited to participate in live showcases, and offer survey with the residents of six unnamed European their feedback,” says Couturier. cities, which EASA describes as a “potential target market for the future deployment of UAM”. The re- sults “will help us prepare an impact assessment and “I cannot see pilotless a future regulatory proposal and will also serve to raise awareness of UAM across the EU”, it says. passenger aircraft Commercial services entering service before Paris is the frontrunner to host Europe’s first com- mercial eVTOL aircraft services, with a 2024 launch the end of this decade at timed to coincide with the Olympic Games in the French capital. In preparation for the launch, an the earliest” industry consortium led by Airports de Paris (ADP), RATP Group, and Choose Paris Region, is creating Michael Cervenka Chief executive, Vertical Aerospace what it describes as a “full UAM ecosystem around the Paris region”. Starting in June at Pontoise-Cormeilles-en-Vex- The trials are expected to last until the end of 2023. in airfield, 25km northwest of the capital, some 30 “By that time, we should have acquired sufficient participants from across the aerospace industry relevant information and operational data in order to including Airbus, CAE, Pipistrel, Safran Electronics launch the selected routes for the Olympic Games in and Defense, Skyports and Volocopter, will begin a 2024 and beyond,” Couturier says. series of trials supported by EASA and Eurocontrol “We hope the success of this venture will also covering five key areas. provide a springboard to further expansion of UAM These span vehicle development, for manufactur- operations throughout Europe.” ers and equipment suppliers; urban infrastructure, Skyports’ Walker describes the UAM market as a targeted at energy companies and vertiport design- “new form of transport for everyone, which just like ers; operations, for suppliers of intermodal solutions, airline travel, will eventually become normalised”. maintenance, or digital platforms; airspace integra- Everything is going in the right direction, and it tion, involving suppliers of unmanned traffic man- will be “capital and brains that get us to the end agement or communication/navigation systems; and point”, he says. ◗ public acceptance. Led by laboratories or research See p62

Electrically-powered VA-X4 is due to enter service in 2024 Vertical Aerospace Aerospace Vertical

May 2021 Flight International 61 VA-X4 will carry a pilot and four passengers 100nm, but be equally suited to shorter-duration flights Vertical Aerospace Aerospace Vertical

Dominic Perry London Crucially, however, the “pace and agility” of F1 design and engineering has been married with “real deep aerospace experience and certification [expertise]”. he premise and promise of Vertical Aerospace That experience is reflected in Vertical’s team, are not unique: to deliver within the next few which has been drawn from the likes of Airbus, Bom- years a new, eco-friendly mode of air transport bardier and Rolls-Royce. In fact, Cervenka is an R-R that will revolutionise urban mobility. alumnus, having most recently held the post of head TTo that end, Bristol, UK-based Vertical is develop- of future business propositions, reporting to chief ing its VA-X4 electric vertical take-off and landing technology officer (CTO) Paul Stein. (eVTOL) aircraft, which is being prepared for service Cervenka points out that of the combined 1,200 entry in 2024. years of experience at Vertical, around 800 of those Featuring eight electrically powered rotors – the are in aerospace engineering. “It has started with a front four of which tilt – the winged VA-X4 can team that knows how to do certification,” he says. accommodate four passengers and a pilot, and is And around 25 of its 120-strong team have an F1 designed for journeys of up to 104nm (192km). background, including CTO Mike Gascoyne; a legend But Vertical is just one of hundreds of companies in motor racing circles. globally vying to do exactly the same thing. What sets the company apart, argues chief execu- Pilots preferred tive Michael Cervenka, is its genesis. It was founded In its five-year existence, Vertical has so far flown two by energy entrepreneur Steve Fitzpatrick from the scaled demonstrators, the VA-X1 and -X2, which were ashes of an ill-fated foray into Formula One (F1) with more traditional-looking – in so much as anything is the Manor Racing team. traditional-looking in this new segment – wingless Looking to bring some of that motorsport engi- multi-rotor vehicles. neering know-how into adjacent industries, Fitz- But there is a significant jump in the size and prom- patrick settled on aerospace with the aim of disrupt- ised performance of the VA-X4 versus those proto- ing sustainable aviation. types. And of the five people the VA-X4 is expected As Cervenka puts it, experience in key F1 tech- to accommodate, one of those will be a pilot, based nologies such as lightweight composites, advanced on a belief that “we don’t think autonomy is viable, simulation and high-density powertrains are “useful at least in this decade or well into the next”. ingredients for an electric aircraft developer”. Therefore, to carry four passengers and a pilot over “Having those F1 roots means there are probably a the distances envisaged and achieve the required number of differences between us and the competi- economy – making the aircraft commercially viable tion,” he says. to operate – a different architecture was required,

62 Flight International May 2021 Business aviation Vertical Aerospace

UK start-up Vertical Aerospace believes it has a headstart on its UAM rivals, thanks to a spirit forged on motor racing’s elite grid that gives it the “pace and agility” of F1 design and engineering In pole position says Cervenka, combining vertical lift with a “highly Swapping battery packs was also ruled out, he says, efficient wing”. owing to both practical considerations (the uncer- With a wingspan of 15m (50ft), the VA-X4 will tainty of whether a landing site would have spares) be sized to access around 80% of existing helipad and the unnecessary safety risk of having staff handle infrastructure. Crucially, it will be a versatile machine, several hundred kilogrammes of cells. equally adaptable for short flights of around 15 miles While the batteries will be developed in-house, (25km), “using only a small amount of battery Vertical is sourcing other elements of the vehi- charge”, as it is for longer-range missions. cle elsewhere: R-R on 9 March became the latest Battery charging time after such a short hop should programme partner, signing on to provide the VA- be around 10min, says Cervenka, which is “critical for X4’s electric propulsion system. It follows existing vehicle economics”. suppliers Honeywell (flight-controls) and Solvay “There’s no use flying 20 miles and then having the (composite technology). vehicle sat on the ground for 40 minutes between This is a “different philosophy” from its rivals, flights,” he says. Cervenka says, some of whom are developing individ- ual systems from scratch.

Relationships count “Our strong view is that the best way to approach this [development] is to combine the pace and agility of a start-up with the expertise of suppli- ers.” Essentially, Vertical has no desire to reinvent the wheel: why waste time and effort designing, say, flight controls or a powertrain, when there are companies out there for whom such things are their bread and butter? Those supplier relationships “really enable us to leapfrog some of our competitors”, he argues. But with an aggressive timetable to stick to and the R-R agreement only recently minted, the planned first flight this year will be without the “highly integrated” powertrain of the final version. Vertical was spun out of experience “To build a prototype in this timeframe requires with Manor Racing Formula One team

Z Ryzner/Shutterstock Z Ryzner/Shutterstock some compromises,” says Cervenka. It will still be

May 2021 Flight International 63 64 a dozen serious rivals whoare likely to have vehicles players”. That said, given thatthere are probably half ing” ofthefieldtakingplace “into themore credible ket, but Cervenka says there isalready a“narrow- Authority, to befollowed by European approval. tification willbesoughtfrom theUK’s CivilAviation ment supportcanbeobtained,headds.Initialcer- electric aircraft company.” assembly line;it’s areally great place to buildafuture we would like itto beintheUK,at least the initial to bedecided, however. “Ourstrong view isthat short order,” hesays. for tens ofthousands[of eVTOL aircraft] inrelatively ramp-up. “There isclearlyaneasy market demand X4s] withinthefirst few years” after “quite aquick” Vertical will“have produced several thousand[VA- if you canbefirst to market. Cervenka expects that the potential rewards insignificance against losses now paleinto thousands ofaircraft, for possibly tens of are eyeing amarket period oftime”. shareholder for along “remain majority that Fitzpatrickwill although hethinks ties is“progressing”, funding opportuni- ration ofexternal As such,anexplo- Quick start private individual”. tification fundedby a go alltheway to cer- doesn’t make senseto has given Vertical “an incredible leg up”,butthat“it 2019), includinganinterest-bearing loanof£11million. itself registered apre-tax loss of£114millionduring by parent company Imagination Industries (which made apre-tax loss of£8.1 million($11.2million). recent periodfor whichaccounts are available –it ness: intheyear ended31December 2019–themost no revenue coming in,Vertical isaloss-making busi- moment, however, withdevelopment ongoingand by thenumberofcustomer depositsittakes. At the frame”, says Cervenka, whichwillbeinpartdictated cash impact”from creating suchaservice. area ofexpertise andthat there would bea“huge craft itself, hepointsoutthat isnotthecompany’s est,” says Cervenka. “We are indiscussions. We are seeing alotofinter- players” –airlinesincludedto secure launchorders. propulsion system. without the“optimised performance” oftheeventual Business aviation a vehicle thatis“very closeto certifiable”, but Flight International As previously noted, Vertical isinacrowded mar- But thatpartlydependsonwhatlevel ofgovern- The locationofitsmainproduction site hasstill Of course, whenyou Cervenka says thatowner Fitzpatrick’s support During that12monthsitcontinued to bebankrolled Profitability shouldcome inthe“2024-2025 time- While notrulingoutVertical operating someair- Meanwhile, talksare underway with“some major May 2021 Vertical Aerospace

Vertical Aerospace

Vertical Aerospace can secure poleposition. the meantime, F1-influenced Vertical ishopingthat it likely to beachieved afew years down theroad. In noting thathalfthebattle is “creating credibility”. reputation. That “creates some challenges”,hesays, legacy inanothersense:ithasnoheritage, history or cracy orasetway ofdoingthings,Vertical alsolacks very fast becausewe don’thave thelegacy,” hesays. ka hadgreat preparation for hiscurrent role. at cutting-edgeanddisruptive technologies, Cerven- this hasledto a“collaborative” mindsettaking root. really motivated to be successful,” hesays, addingthat tions together there are al cating factor ofanF1attitude hasbeen added. fast-paced aerospace start-up into whichthecompli- at R-R,Cervenka hasnotbeenthrown by joininga vestor riskormarket capture opportunity,” hesays. A slight slipwillnotmaterially matter interms of in- advantage: that’s measured inyears, notinmonths. miss it. We have anopportunityto gainfirst-mover “We aren’t talkingaboutmissing itby years ifwe do winged vehicles for quite aperiodoftime.” confident inthedesign,as“we have beenlookingat potential for unforeseen hiccups alongtheway –heis sive” –and,thisbeingaerospace, there isalways the ments [from theregulators].” we have areally goodbasisfor certification require- game,” says Cervenka. “Compared withayear ago, Vertical hitsitscertification andservice entrytargets. on themarket inthesametimeframe, itisvitalthat Michael Cervenka aircraft] inshortorder” of thousands[of eVTOL market demandfor tens “There isclearlyaneasy Still, insuchafledglingsegment, credibility isonly While hemeansthat there isanabsence ofbureau- “The difference isclearlythat we are able to move Besides, withhislatter years at R-Rspentlooking “When you bringdifferent cultures andorganisa- Despite hishaving spentagoodlypartofhiscareer Equally, any timelineslippageislikely to bemodest: While heconcedes “theprogramme isaggres- “We are asconfident asanyone canbeinthis Chief executive, Vertical Aerospace Z ways ways challenges, butwe are VA-X2 prototype was a ‘conventional’ wingless multi-rotor vehicle strategy Sustainable the industry’s greenhouse gasemissions customer demand andplay itspartinreducing alternative aviation fuelsasitseeksto meetrising The business aviation sector isembracing Business aviation Signature FlightSupporthasseencustomer May 2021 demand thatis‘off thecharts’ Flight International Environment 65

Signature Flight Support BlueBarron Photo/Shutterstock 66 H of 35%SAF to 65%regular JetA-1 last December. It ture beganfuellingNetJetsaircraft withablend level says Lefebvre. That airport isSanFrancisco. Signa- giving othersachance to step in. as muchSAF because theirnetworks are moribund, change that.Commercial airlineshave notneeded convinced, explains Lefebvre. The pandemichelped ed, andcustomers were interested butnotalways aviation for sometime, butavailability was restrict- industry’s first permanentsupplyofSAF for private business aviation community to sustainability action. icant ramp-up in commitments by theprivate and of many inrecent monthsthat demonstrate asignif- landmark deal,announced inSeptember 2020, isone NetJets atSanFrancisco International airport.This Neste anddelivered to launchcustomer andoperator Signature, suppliedby FinnishSAF manufacturer fuel, butsustainable aviation fuel(SAF), boughtby tors (FBOs), withanetwork of200locations. Support, oneoftheworld’s leadingfixed-base opera- says thechiefoperating officer ofSignature Flight uptake ofcustomer demandthat isoffthecharts,” question isboringoldaviation fuel.“We have seen Mark Pilling environmental issues take offsince 2019 NetJets hasseeninterest from customers in Flight International “We said to ourselves, let’s flipan entire airport,” Signature hadbeenthinkingaboutestablishing the However, Tony Lefebvre isincredulous that theproduct in flies offtheshelf. feel thebuzz ofsellingaproduct that literally people inthesalesworld are lucky enoughto opefully, atsomepointduringtheircareer, London the product isnotsimplyregular JetA-1 May 2021 have beenreceiving theSAF/Jet A-1 combination. all customers takingfuelfrom Signature attheairport USgal) ofSAF from Neste, andby theendofMarch, has committed to buying1.3millionlitres (5million ment to SAF atthestart ofthisyear, buildingonits social andgovernance targets, says Gallagher. egy to ensure they cansatisfytheirenvironmental, seeking anoverview ofNetJets’sustainability strat- high net-worth individualsto Fortune 500companies in abigway, withcustomer interest ranging from months. Now, environmental concerns have returned pandemic took hold,ittook abackseatfor afew board aircraft asthemost pressing issue, butasthe doing from asustainability standpoint”, hesays. ing “a great numberofenquiriesaboutwhat we were world’s largest private jetoperators, hadbeen receiv- Before theonsetofpandemic,NetJets,one Gallagher, itsheadofsales,marketing andservices. SAF supplyfor theSanFrancisco hub, explains Pat NetJets hasbought792,000 litres ofSignature’s Growing concern start-up inJanuary2020 Stake acquired by NetJetsinWasteFuel SAF production 20% NetJets took another step forward onitscommit- In 2019, thistopic hadovertaken faster wi-fion Business aviation Environment

deal with Signature. “Rather than just procure SAF, remains relevant and powerful enough with a dec- we wanted to be far more strategic than that and ade having passed since it was originally written. invest in its production,” says Gallagher. There is pressure from all sides, especially large In January, the fractional aircraft ownership corporations, to do more. The business aviation company announced that it was taking a 20% stake sector is all too aware that it must step up on sustain- in WasteFuel, a US-based start-up planning to build ability, recognising that despite the good medical and a network of SAF production plants worldwide, with humanitarian work it does, the perception of it being the fi rst coming on stream in the Philippines in 2025. accessible mainly to the rich is a challenge. “As the world’s largest private aviation buyer of fuel, In the past couple of years, there has been a re- we can do this, we can lean in with our scale and our freshing change of pace from this community. “The fi nancial ability to invest,” explains Gallagher. real game-changer is that the fl ight departments NetJets has made a commitment to buy a of the FBOs and the fuel suppliers are getting clear minimum of 26.4 million litres of WasteFuel’s SAF customer demand,” says Steve Csonka, executive over the next decade. director at the Commercial Aviation Alternative One of the arguments against SAF has been its Fuels Initiative (CAAFI). cost premium over Jet A-1. At the headline level, There have been several initiatives such as SAF this is often said to be three to fi ve times the cost of being available for aircraft fl ying to shows such conventional aviation fuel. But at a blend of 35% SAF, as EBACE in Geneva and NBAA in the USA to customers will only see a relatively small diff erence in price because of the relatively modest proportion used, says Gallagher. And depending on where the “The real game-changer is SAF is taken, there may be a tax credit to off set this premium, as there is, for example, in California. that the fl ight departments And as more SAF becomes available, the price will come down. “The price point with WasteFuel by of the FBOs and the fuel 2025 will be negligible,” believes Gallagher. By then, the blend of SAF is likely to have risen, as engine suppliers are getting clear manufacturers such as Rolls-Royce are already successfully conducting tests with 100% SAF. customer demand”

Top priority Steve Csonka Executive director, The importance of sustainable alternatives is clear Commercial Aviation Alternative Fuels Initiative for an industry that relies so heavily on fossil fuel. Aviation is working hard and fast on electric, hybrid and hydrogen propulsion as alternatives, but demonstrate its availability and effi cacy. Another conventionally powered turbofan and turboprop high-profi le public relations exercise involved provid- aircraft will be around for decades to come. ing SAF to fuel private aircraft leaving Zurich after The business aviation world argues, with the World Economic Forum in January 2020. some justifi cation, that it has been working The industry’s main associations banded to- as diligently as its airline counterparts on gether in 2018 to form the Business Aviation Co- sustainability strategies for years. alition for Sustainable Aviation Fuel. They have In 2009, the industry adopted an been joined by many industry stakeholders independent stance, publishing the along the way, with CAAFI and the Canadian Business Aviation Commitment on Business Aviation Association joining in 2020. Climate Change (BACCC), an in- The coalition seeks to address a “knowledge dustry-wide promise to reduce its gap” on the availability and safety of SAF and environmental impact via three goals to promote its use among all stakeholders. and four key mechanisms as an overall The increased use of SAF is seen as vital for basket of measures to reduce the aviation in general to achieve the BACCC goals sector’s impact on climate change. by 2050, but with limited availability right now, At its core, this commitment, pub- the coalition promotes so-called “book-and- lished by the International Business Avia- claim” and carbon off set programmes to tion Council and the General Aviation augment or stand in for its use. Manufacturers Association, called Book-and-claim is a programme for carbon-neutral growth “where business jet operators from 2020 (updated in the can purchase SAF at an airport 2015 review of the com- where it is unavailable, and mitment) and an absolute receive credit for its supply reduction of 50% of car- and use at an airport where it bon dioxide (CO2) emis- is available”, explains the co- sions by 2050 relative to alition’s Fuelling the Future 2005. These players are guide to SAF. currently reviewing this The principle is important, commitment to see if it explains Csonka, as many operators will not be able to Signature spied an opportunity buy SAF directly, either be-

Signature Flight Support Signature during pandemic, says Lefebvre cause they do not have the

May 2021 Flight International 67 Gulfstream 68 that represent theindustry. world ofsustainability. This includestheassociations get upto speedquicklywiththenew andcomplex firm PrivateFly. its onIATA’s Aviation CarbonExchange for charter In Januaryitwas thefirst to buycarbonoffsetcred- Boston-based 4AIRhasdeveloped arating system. may finditchallengingto navigate theoffset world, ers are coming in.Recognising thatmany players offer offset products tocustomers. Other stakehold- emissions, according to FuellingtheFuture. vesting incarbon-reduction projects thathave lower a proportion ofanaircraft’s carbonemissions by in- bon offsets. These enableusers to compensate for SAF plantscome onstream inthecoming years. being produced, butwillincrease inpopularityas Book-and-claim will belimited by theamountofSAF Stop-gap measures SAF atany airportanywhere intheworld. whether itisusedto fueltheiraircraft oronetaking the carbonreduction credit for theSAF they buy, for theentire aviation industry, enablingusersto gain carbon credit bodies,” hesays. demonstrated thatitworks, anditisaccepted by the development at theDutch SAF developer. “We have emissions, says Stephen Wetmore, headofbusiness tofirms suchasPwC reduce theirbusiness travel system calledBoard Now since 2019, allowing book-and-claim system. an industry-wide, accountable, andtransparent global ing thecreation ofastandard thatwillhelpestablish at theairportsthey operate from. alternative fuelsandJetA-1 since 2011 Gulfstream hasbeenusingblendsof buying power, orbecauseitsimplyisnotavailable Flight International For thenext couple ofyears, allplayers willneedto Operators suchasFlexjet, NetJetsandVistaJet all In themeantime, many operators are buyingcar- This book-and-claim standard isanimportant step SkyNRG hashadanin-housebook-and-claim Aviation’s mainassociations are closeto announc- May 2021 at theNBAA. “We believe taxcredit ablender’s will says Stewart D’Leon, director, technical operations ing pointinhelpingto make SAF more affordable, which would make adifference and would bea start- to address infrastructure andtheclimate challenge”. the AmericanJobsPlanasyou work withCongress the inclusionofaSAF-specific taxcredit blender’s in urging “theBiden-Harrisadministration to support to Pete Buttigieg,USSecretary ofTransportation, among anarray of49 stakeholders whoinAprilwrote the industry. Several business aviation players were environment thantheprevious one, isencouraging administration, withanagendamore focused onthe representing only0.04% ofglobalCO2 output. is minusculecompared withglobalairlineoperations, activity isstepping up, even thoughbusiness flying tion markets oftheUSA andEurope for now. Andthis be heard inpolicy-making circles. felt itwas increasingly importantfor itsown voice to and missions ofairliners,thebusiness aviation sector are becoming comparable to thetake-off weights Bombardier Global7500 andGulfstream G650, which National Business Aviation Association Stewart D’Leon questions aboutSAF” with somevery basic on thelegislative side of operators andpeople “I still seealarge number The proposal isacredit ofupto $2perUSgal, In theUSA, thearrival ofthenew Biden-Harris Lobbying isfocused onthelargest business avia- With thearrival oflarger business jetssuchasthe Director, technical operations, Business aviation Environment 50%

Business Aviation Commitment on Climate Change emissions reduction target by 2050, from 2005 levels

May. The European Business Aviation Association supports the initiative, but stresses that any rules or mandate stipulating that a percentage of SAF to be used “has to be scaled up as time goes on”, says Bruce Parry, its senior environment manager. It is possible the rule might demand SAF us- age at a minimal level starting in 2025, rising to a low single-digit figure by 2030 as more of the fuel becomes available. “What we don’t want is a mandate that creates an issue because there is not enough fuel to satisfy it,” explains Parry.

Providing answers Talk of mandates, tax credits and book-and-claim NetJets may baffle those just getting their head around SAF NetJets has prioritised investing in SAF production itself. “A really important part of this is education,” capacity, says sales and marketing head Pat Gallagher says D’Leon. “I still see a large number of operators and people on the legislative side with some very basic questions about SAF.” The industry coalition is allow us to accelerate the widespread production and seeking to answer these questions. use of SAF. It is something we need to put the entire Signature, meanwhile, is very much operating in the nation on an even playing field,” he says. here and now. In addition to San Francisco, it has made In the USA, the lobbying effort is to support the SAF available at London Luton airport in the UK and tax credit, whereas across the Atlantic, the Europe- Mobile Downtown, Van Nuys, and Boeing Field in the an Commission’s focus is on compelling operators USA. “We will be live with actual [SAF] product across to embrace SAF-using mandates. The first approach the whole network by the end of 2021,” says Lefebvre. offers a carrot, the second is more stick. Whether via actual pumped SAF, or via book-and- The Commission is expected to publish its claim, business aviation is taking SAF and sustainabil- proposed legislation, called ReFuelEU Aviation, to ity seriously. For D’Leon, the message is simple: “SAF boost the supply and demand for SAF in the EU, in works, it’s here and it’s now.” Z

Bringing SAF use into the mainstream

There is a group of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) Gulfstream began searching for a regular SAF “geeks” that have lived and breathed the rise of provider and signed an offtake deal with World this fuel from an oddity over a decade ago to the Energy (then called AltAir) in 2015. Fuel began mainstream carbon reduction instrument it has arriving a year later and the airframer has used become today. it ever since for demonstration flights and at air Bodies such as the Commercial Aviation shows with a 30:70 SAF/Jet A-1 blend. “Some Alternative Fuels Initiative, and manufacturers customers also insist their new aircraft are Bombardier, Dassault and Gulfstream, among delivered with SAF,” says Etter. others, have been intimately involved in SAF since The initiative went a step further on 14 February the mid-2000s. 2020, when the G700 ultra-long-range business jet Gulfstream’s SAF story dates to 2011 when, at took its first flight with SAF, he says. the behest of Honeywell, it supported a G450 Aircraft manufacturers are making further strides transatlantic flight to that year’s Paris air show, on sustainability. Bombardier says the development recalls Charles Etter, staff scientist/technical fellow plan for its clean-sheet Global 7500 involved responsible for environmental and regulatory obtaining business aviation’s first environmental affairs at the Savannah, Georgia-based firm. product declaration. One of the G450’s Rolls-Royce Tay 611-8C “This unique achievement means that engines was operated with a 50:50 blend of World Bombardier is providing a comprehensive view Energy’s SAF and Jet A-1, while the other was 100% and public disclosure of the Global 7500’s Jet A-1. The experiment generated widespread environmental footprint throughout the aircraft’s publicity for all involved and prompted potential life cycle stages from the cradle to the grave,” investors to contact World Energy. says the airframer.

May 2021 Flight International 69 Learjet epitomised style, speed and sexiness for celebrities and corporate high-fl iers from the 1960s on. After Bombardier’s decision to end production, we look at the brand’s six-decade legacy King Lear’s long reign Murdo Morrison London assets and slashing costs to stay afl oat. It could little aff ord to keep a subsidiary that was struggling to make a profi t. There have been missteps too spe- he early to mid-1960s were arguably aero- cifi cally with the Learjet brand. Since the scrapping space’s most creative age, outside wartime. in 2015 of the Learjet 85 – an attempt to bridge the From the fi rst manned space missions to the midsize to super-midsize segments – there has been genesis of vertical take-off fi ghters, supersonic little money available for product development. Ttransports, and jumbo jets, engineers were dreaming Today, the Learjet name may command recognition big. The period also saw the birth of the business jet, among those who have a casual knowledge about an invention that fused glamour, security, and time aviation, but it is no longer pre-eminent, being just machine for those Tom Wolfe would term the Masters one of fi ve brands competing in the broad light jet of the Universe in booming corporate America. segment – including several new players that have Bill Lear’s Learjet 23 was the only US contender emerged this century. among a trio of types – with France’s Dassault Falcon However, in the 1960s and early 1970s it would have 20 and the UK’s Hawker Siddeley HS125 – that over been diffi cult to overstate the sheer star appeal of a few months between 1962 and 1963 took to the the fast and stylish Learjet 23. Frank Sinatra was one skies to usher an era of fast, comfortable and private transport for those companies and individuals who could aff ord them. Of all the brands that emerged at the time, Learjet, along with Gulfstream, has perhaps endured longest in the public consciousness and be- come synonymous with the sector.

Competitive segment But in February, Bombardier – owner of the Wichita, Kansas-based airframer since 1990 – announced that Learjet production will cease by the end of the year, blaming slow sales in a highly competitive segment. Although the Canadian company delivered the 3,000th Learjet in 2017, and more than 2,000 exam- ples remain in service according to Cirium fl eets data, annual deliveries of the current 70/75 models have been well below 20 annually for some time. Bombardier’s wider problems have not helped. Weighed down with debts from the ill-fated CSeries How Flight International reported development, the company has been offl oading on the Learjet 23 in December 1963

70 Flight International May 2021 with otherfledglingbusiness aircraft itmadeupfor in noting thatwhatitlacked incabinspace compared jet inapiece headlined“Carcomfort, fighter speed”, the “sleek compactness” ofthesix- to eight-seat twin- craft. The Learjet 23flew inOctober thatyear. 1963 hesetupinWichita, homeofCessna andBeech- tered service. Abandoning plansfor a Swiss factory, in FFAStuder’s P-16, asupersonicfighter that never en- Dr Hans-LuziusStuderonabusiness jetversion of In 1960, hestarted working withSwiss-based engineer inventor, makingmoney duringtheSecond World War. at highschoolbutbecameaserialentrepreneur and voured mode oftransport for Hollywood celebrities. of itsfirst customers, andfor years itwas thefa- Two monthslater, Born inHannibal,Missouri in1902, BillLear failed The Learjet 75 isthefinalvariant inproduction Flight International approved of

BIllyPix and themidsize Model54/55/56 prototype. Learjet 28(are-winged version oftheLearjet 25), aircraft, goingonlater that decadeto launchthe 35 –thefirmhadbecome Gates Learjet. rett FTE731-2-powered Model25–later theLearjet 1969. By thetimeoffirst flightin1971 oftheGar- now approaching 70, remained onitsboard until majority stake inthecompany, althoughLear, by Lear planned to build10Learjet 23samonthby 1964. gave ita1,600nm(2,960km)range. We reported that tured swept wingsandintegral wingandtiptanksthat pace. The General ElectricCJ610-1-powered typefea- would later adddeHavilland. bought CanadairandNorthern Ireland’s Shorts,and Canadian combine Bombardier, which hadrecently 1990, Learjet was scooped upby the fast-expanding although itsnew parent soonfiledfor bankruptcy. In the company revert to thenameLearjet Corporation, to Tucson, Arizona, and afurtheracquisition thatsaw the Space Shuttle programme, ashort-lived relocation The 1980switnessed amove into producing parts for Space Shuttle the first aircraft to bebuiltby theLearjet Corporation Range oftheGeneral ElectricCJ610-1 powered Learjet 23, 1,600nm In 1975, theLearjet Corporation delivered its 500th In 1967, theGates RubberCompany acquired a Learjet 23first flew inOctober 1963 May 2021 Learjet Flight International Retrospective 71

Bombardier 72 72 Brian Foley ofconsultancy BrianFoley Associates. tell-tale signsleadingto thisdecision for years,” says has surprisedfew industry watchers. “There have been Liberty variant in2019, themove to endproduction a one-aircraft range withthelaunchofaLearjet 75 the programme cancelled in2015. together withBombardier’s growing cashcrisis,saw production to Grob inGermany. project thatinvolved outsourcing specialist fuselage the all-composite Learjet 85,ahugelyambitious CSeries, abullishBombardier alsoannounced in2007 time. Around thetimeitwas preparing to launchthe Learjet 55)and all-new Learjet 45fl During the1990s,Learjet 60(anevolution ofthe Huge ambition wider Bombardier range. 55C –would continue as“niche”products withinthe 31, 35Aand36Alightjets,together withthelarger production ofLearjet’s thencurrent models–the site. Bombardier chairmanLaurent Beaudoinsaid new fl although theCanadianoutfi of Bombardier, withitsmanagementteam inplace, that Learjet would beanautonomous subsidiary The lost brands ofbusiness aviation remembered celebrity JetStar owners. and Frank Sinatra were among true business jet.ElvisPresley 10-passenger typewas thefi maintain thefour-engined, until thelate 1970s andsome production from theearly1960s The Lockheed JetStar was in aviation badgeare longover. Lockheed’s days asabusiness in aerospace anddefence, one ofthebiggest names While Lockheed Martinremains Lockheed JetStar are nolongerbeingproduced: successful intheirown right,but segments orwere highly or typesthatpioneered new These are someofthefamilies FlightGlobal Flight International Despite attempts to reinvigorate whathadbecome But thecomplexity ofdeveloping theLearjet 85, Flight International ight-test centre for itsproducts attheWichita May 2021 reported inJulythatyear t plannedto establish a rst ew for thefi never restarted. 2014, butHawker production was Hawker andBeechcraft brands in Aviation thenacquired the protection in2012. Textron went into Chapter 11bankruptcy shortly before Hawker Beechcraft – continued to beproduced until the super-midsize Hawker 4000 Hawker family –the400XP and ownership inthe1990s.The the Hawker 1000underRaytheon the HS125–whichevolved into another 1960s-era business jet– Hawker Siddeley was behind Hawker of trainer aircraft, butthe Grob continues asamanufacturer Grob SPn rst

Bombardier Bombardier programme for variants suchasthe40XR Bombardier hasannounced anupgrade types launchedby theWichita-based airframer The Learjet 31Awas oneofseveral successful comprised theA500piston twin based Adam Aircraft’s range the fi noughties thatfailed to survive Another start-up from the Adam built, butnoneentered service. insolvency. Four prototypes were in 2008whenGrob fell into the programme was cancelled with many of its contemporaries, the market inthemid-2000s.As of lightandvery-light jetsto hit fl composite Grob SPn,unveiled and entrepreneur NiallOlver. The all- under then-owner SouthAfrican its toes into business aviation Bavarian company briefl own in2005,was oneofafl nancial crisis,Colorado- y dipped urry Learjet Retrospective

The all-composite Learjet 85 was an ambitious attempt to broaden the range in the 2000s, but was a costly failure Bombardier

“There have been no real enhancements to the Learjet 70 and 75 have “continued to rapidly depreciate” line since 2013, when the Learjet 40XR and 45XR were during the pandemic, although he says that values tweaked to make the Learjet 70 and 75.” for the older Learjet 45 and 60 families have “per- Daniel Hall, a senior valuations consultant with formed quite well”. When it announced it was ending Ascend by Cirium, notes that values for the Learjet production, Bombardier also said it was launching an upgrade programme for Learjet 40/45s, including new avionics, cabin improvements and updated in- “The Learjet remains flight connectivity. Even loyal Learjet customers have accepted the in- one of the most iconic evitability of the decision. Siegfried Axtmann, chair- man of German air ambulance specialist FAI, one of business aircraft ever. the biggest Learjet operators in Europe with a fleet of 12 Learjet 60s, describes the move as “regretta- We have enjoyed many ble but understandable”, and on the cards since the cancellation of the Learjet 85 programme. However, successful years with it” he adds: “The Learjet remains one of the most iconic business aircraft ever. We have enjoyed many suc- Siegfried Axtmann Chairman, FAI cessful years with it.” ◗

Silicon Valley executive planned to mass produce the original very-light jet in the early 2000s, offering them to early adopters for just $2 million a time. But it was not to be. Eclipse Aviation failed in 2008, and, although the Eclipse name has survived under successive companies, Raburn’s dream of a brand that would disrupt the world of general aviation came to nothing.

Sabreliner James Mellon/FlightGlobal The North American and later Lockheed’s JetStar was produced from the 1960s Rockwell Sabreliner was a midsize jet developed for both military and the A700 very-light jet. Seven Eclipse and business use in the late 1950s. A500s – based on an original If founder Vern Raburn’s vision After a number of civilian models design by Burt Rutan – entered had come true, the skies would were made, from the Series 40 to service, but the A700 never made be full of Eclipse 500s and their the Series 80A, production was it to production. successors by now. The former halted in 1981.

May 2021 Flight International 73 From yuckspeak to tales of yore, send your offcuts to murdo.morrison@flightglobal.com

Ode deer! Lines on the occasion of the safe arrival of four reindeer from Moscow Zoo to Frankfurt after a flight on a Boeing 747-400F, operated by AirBridgeCargo:

’Twas the month before Easter, no word of a lie, When a group of four reindeer crossed over the sky But nothing to do with the usual chap Or post-Christmas problems with reading the map Or gifts being carried from nation to nation No shiny red noses to aid navigation They weren’t doing circuits for currency training And all of them flew with no hint of complaining Their level of comfort turned up to eleven

Locked up on the deck of a 747 Grumman Northrop From Russia with love (and a captain and crew) Retirement on the radar They caribou-classed it to Wuppertal Zoo We weren’t there in person; this bit might be doubted Our sources have sworn that the loadmaster shouted: “Come Yuri! Come Lenin! Come Vodka and Tonic! “We trust you’ve enjoyed your time cruising subsonic. Royal flush “Unfasten your seat-belts, it’s time to deplane. “We hope that you’ll choose to fly AirBridge again.” UK air navigation service provider NATS issued a Our story ends there but the message is clear. briefing sheet on 12 March advising that air restrictions You know who to call if you’re short of some deer. were being put in place for a week for an upcoming But don’t write in complaining we aren’t quite visit by Queen Elizabeth to the Firth of Clyde. Tennyson. For security reasons, it said, no flights would be What did he know about airlifting venison? allowed below 6,000ft or within 3nm – with exceptions for certain aircraft including those in the service of local law enforcement agency Police Scotland. Police Scotland proceeded to announce on social media that this restriction would be in place for the duration of Queen Elizabeth’s visit to Glen Mallan, only to receive an indignant reply from someone irritated that the monarch had the freedom to swan around Loch Long while a pandemic lockdown was in effect, and who added: “Can I visit Aberdeen or Cheltenham?” Which might have been a more withering barb had the Queen Elizabeth in question been the current head of state and not, as it turned out, the Royal Navy It’ll be warmer at Wuppertal

AirBridgeCargo aircraft carrier.

From the archive

1921 Fifteen minutes100 to go 1946 Atmosphere75 of luxury Generally speaking the air services between London On Wednesday, May 1st, we had the unique and Paris are very managed, but there are one or two experience of flying at 25,000ft sitting in a beautifully minor points that call for friendly criticism. The main upholstered armchair, smoking a cigarette and advantage of an air service – one might say its raison chatting comfortably with our fellow passengers. d’etre – is speed. That being so, it is distinctly annoying The cabin temperature was kept pretty constant in for a busy man who had expected to leave Croydon at the region of 75 deg F, and from the lack of noise 12 o’clock to be kept waiting for, as far as he can see, and luxury of travel, we might all have been sitting in no apparent reason whatever. The man who gets to the a superbly appointed special train – apart from the aerodrome a quarter of an hour before the machine utter absence of apparent motion. In point of fact, we is leaving, gets through customs, takes his seat and were flying in the first production Avro Tudor I. The makes his journey to scheduled time, will retain an average person needs oxygen at altitudes in excess impression of reliability and punctuality which will of 15,000ft. Yet here we were, nearly five miles up encourage him to use the service again. If he is kept and with an outside temperature of -24 deg F being waiting for close on an hour before a start is made, he carried through the sky at 300 m.p.h. in the most will go by train and boat next time. luxurious form of transport man has yet devised.

74 Flight International May 2021 Straight & Level

EuroHawk’s rest Along with the new Berlin airport – massively over budget and delayed nine years, only to open in the midst of the pandemic – the EuroHawk is one of Germany’s aviation white elephants. The centerpiece of a bid by the Bundeswehr to establish its own signals intelligence capability, the programme – based on the Northrop Grumman RQ-4 Global Hawk high-altitude, long-endurance unmanned air vehicle – collapsed in 2013, ruffling many political feathers as it did so. In the end, just one demonstrator was built. Despite talk about restarting the project over the years, the prototype has been formally retired, and will see out its days in the military history museum at Berlin-Gatow.

Air showbiz Love is in TindAIR

With no income from what would have been the 2020 Yuckspeak acronyms #1,324: TindAIR, which “stands” air show – or any other event for the past 12 months, for Tactical INstrumental Deonfliction And In-flight for that matter – Farnborough International is going Resolution (yes, these capitals are in the right place). into the movie business. The European project is intended to find a way to The company has applied for planning permission keep unmanned air vehicles apart in urban settings. for two sound stages on its site, behind the permanent So best not confuse it with the popular dating app of Hall 1. Film-makers will also be able to use hospitality nearly the same name, designed to bring users into the chalets for offices, and erect temporary stages and closest possible proximity. workshops, under the proposal. Although few movies have been shot during the pandemic – due to social distancing complications and no cinemas to release them in – the UK remains an Taking the Michael attractive location for producers thanks to country’s sizeable creative industries. However, studio capacity Michael O’Leary’s wicked barbs at politicians, airport around London is limited. authorities, and feather-bedded competitors are Although the application covers the period until always the highlight of a Ryanair press conference. The August 2024, presumably the likes of Tom Cruise and outspoken Irishman did not disappoint at the carrier’s Steven Spielberg will have to work around the next recent financial results, likening Lufthansa to a “drunken two air shows. uncle at a wedding hoovering up state subsidies”.

1971 Boom time for50 Beirut? 1996 AST flies into25 the past If the extra cost of operating Concorde can be kept to The UK’s oldest flying training school has become the no more than 50 per cent, and full use can be made first victim of a Government policy loophole enabling of its speed, Middle East Airlines will buy it. This UK pilots to gain UK commercial pilot’s licences in statement was made by the airline’s general manager, foreign training establishments. The 60-year-old Air Asad Nasr, on May 13. About 65 per cent of passengers Services Training (AST) at Perth, Scotland, announced flying by MEA are businessmen, and Mr Nasr estimates on 26 April that its pilot-training section will be wound that by the mid-seventies, when Concorde comes up by October 1996. Schools in the USA and Australia into service, the airline could justify a daily supersonic started training pilots for UK commercial licences flight on its key route between London and Beirut. in 1995, offering cheaper courses and better flying This assumes that Concorde can cruise at Mach 2, thus weather than their British counterparts. AST marketing cutting two hours off the flying time from Beirut to manager David McKinnon says that overseas training London, and depends on permission being granted to was “a very important factor” in the decision, and that fly supersonically over part of France. If not, MEA does UK policy had “...added insult to injury by allowing not believe Concorde would make commercial sense national vocational qualification tax relief to be on the routes between Europe and the Middle East. claimed by trainees while they are overseas”.

May 2021 Flight International 75 76 76 Bogota, Colombia Rodolfo Serna be calculated withaniPhone. and for olderaircraft, itcould even computational capacityto dothis, have theaccelerometers and spool-up andbrake release. the aircraft hasseconds after lift-off basedontheacceleration the precise thrust neededfor safe uncertainties, would beto calculate problem, whicheliminates allthese and mechanicalconditions. temperature, altitude, fuelquality of theenginesmay vary alsowith with temperature andaltitude. density, whichadditionallyvaries the lengthofrunway andair and any cargo, andmatching itto passengers, their luggage, thefuel approximating theweight ofthe management system. erroneously entered into theflight weight oftheaircraft hasbeen incidents andaccidents where the April 2021), there have beenmany passengers’ (FlightGlobal.com, 8 ‘Miss’ interpretation offemale 737 weight incidenttraced to With reference to thestory ‘TUI Weighty matter Flight International Relatively modernaircraft already A simplesolutionto this To add to theabove, thethrust This risky procedure involves May 2021

Tad Denson/Airbus that Boeing not only has a that Boeingnotonlyhasa western world. manufacturer for civilaircraft inthe that itwould betheonlyairframe Boeing hadonce beenpromised 2015, regarding asuggestion that a letter Isubmitted inSeptember February 2021), Iwas reminded of dispute ( Boeing World Trade Organization up’, abouttheongoingAirbus/ Reading thearticle‘Ratcheting Bad blood Built intheUSA I believe there isaquietrage Flight International , London, UK W DBarbut serious spatwithAirbus. US airlinermanufacturer; hence the long time, even thoughitisthe only at thattime. effectively ended real competition Vickers VC10 andBAC 1-11 –which suddenly –especiallywiththe UK gave upairframe manufacturing within theUSA. even assembling someofitsaircraft competitor now, butonethatis to miscalculate passenger loadby 1.2t Booking system mix-up causedTUIcrew Boeing has not been itself for a Boeing hasnotbeenitselffor a It isworth remembering thatthe

Ceri Breeze/Shutterstock Letters MilborneOne/Wikimedia Commons MilborneOne/Wikimedia

The UK’s developmental Nimrod AEW3 programme was cancelled in 1986

Nott again... Regarding your coverage of the UK’s recent defence review (Flight International, April 2021): it is smoke and mirrors regarding the airborne early warning (AEW) gap between this year’s retirement of its Boeing E-3Ds and the later introduction of just three E-7A Wedgetails. We are stepping back to the days of [defence secretary] John Nott, when he cut the Royal Air Force’s (RAF’s) Shackleton fleet from 12 to six, and then, when the replacement Nimrod AEW3 was cancelled, we were left with five antique aircraft to help defend the UK. One of the points of having AEW is to cover for gaps in ground sensor coverage – not the other way around. Much as I’m sure those at the RAF’s 1 Air Control Centre will love the opportunity to pack their tents and deploy, there are many places they won’t be able to go, so we need AEW. And on the UK’s future investment plans: how can reconnaissance satellites track airborne objects?

Ian McClellan via Twitter

Editor’s reply: We may require Please consider those of us who Under pressure some boffin assistance here; prefer the paper version when NASA’s own “kid’s” web pages selecting fonts and colours for your In your article ‘Engines stay core about propulsion swiftly go otherwise excellent magazine. for NASA’ (Flight International, the beyond normal-level April 2021), it says the stated aim comprehension that engines Ian James is ‘increasing an engine’s bypass “suck, squeeze, bang and blow”. via email ratio to 15% – up from around 12% Calculators at the ready… today – and its pressure ratio to Editor’s reply: Apologies for any about 50%’. problem with legibility – to our eyes Call me dull, but what on earth green text on blue background does that mean? Small print usually reads very well. However, A ratio is normally expressed individual caption colours are now in the form of 1:8, for example – I Your ‘Best of the rest’ section picked by our designer for their have never seen it expressed as a frequently uses a green font best presentation; we hope you percentage. A further explanation against a purple background to find the mix in this issue (p42-43) would be helpful. caption the pictures. more agreeable, and enjoy reading That doesn’t look too bad in the online articles associated with Paul Burch the digital version, but it is almost them by using your FlightGlobal Farnham, Surrey, UK impossible to read in print. Premium login.

We welcome your letters about our coverage, or any other aerospace-related topic. Please email flight.international@flightglobal.com, or write to: The Editor, Flight International, 1st Floor, Chancery House, St Nicholas Way, Sutton, Surrey, SM1 1JB. Letters should be no longer than 350 words in length, and supplied with the correspondent’s name and location. Letters may also be published on FlightGlobal.com, and do not necessarily represent the views of the editor.

May 2021 Flight International 77 Reader Services

EDITORIAL ITALY Digital Subscription Rates 1st Floor, Chancery House, St Nicholas Way, Sales Manager Riccardo Laureri (best rates are quoted) Sutton, Surrey, SM1 1JB, UK +39 (02) 236 2500 [email protected] 1 year: £187/€205.78/$263.50 Save up to 15% fl ight.international@fl ightglobal.com Laureri Associates SRL, Via Alessandro Volta, 40, 2 years: £396/€435.80/$558 Save up to 10% 22100 Como, Italy 3 years: £528/€581/$744 Save up to 20% Editor Craig Hoyle +44 7795 486691 craig.hoyle@fl ightglobal.com ISRAEL Only paid subscriptions available. Deputy Editor Dominic Perry Sales Executive Asa Talbar +972 77 562 1900 Cheques payable to Flight International +44 20 8912 2164 dominic.perry@fl ightglobal.com Fax: +972 77 562 1903 [email protected] Flight International is one of FlightGlobal’s Head of Strategic Content Murdo Morrison FRAeS Talbar Media, 41 HaGiva’a St, PO Box 3184, Givat Ada (publishing, events and FlightJobs) products +44 20 8722 8389 murdo.morrison@fl ightglobal.com 37808, Israel and services. Consulting Editor David Learmount +44 7785 901787 [email protected] ASIA/AUSTRALASIA Contributing Editor Mark Pilling [email protected] Key Account Manager Jay Ee Magazine Enquiries +65 9173 3502 jay.ee@fl ightglobal.com fl ight.international@fl ightglobal.com DVV Media International (Asia) Pte. Ltd. 15 Beach Road, 2nd Floor, Singapore 189677 FlightGlobal uses data and analytics sourced from AIR TRANSPORT TEAM Cirium. RUSSIA & CIS Executive Editor Graham Dunn www.cirium.com graham.dunn@fl ightglobal.com Director Arkady Komarov Tel/Fax: +7 (495) 987 3800 Editor – Airline Business Lewis Harper [email protected] lewis.harper@fl ightglobal.com World Business Media, Leningradsky Prospekt, 80, Flight International welcomes unsolicited Air Transport Editor David Kaminski-Morrow Korpus G, Offi ce 807, Moscow 125190, Russia contributions from readers but cannot guarantee to david.kaminski-morrow@fl ightglobal.com return photographs safely. RECRUITMENT AMERICAS Sales Manager Katie Mann © and Database Rights 2021 DVV Media International Americas Managing Editor Jon Hemmerdinger +44 7792 152097 katie.mann@fl ightglobal.com Ltd. All rights reserved. No part of this publication +1 617 397 2809 jon.hemmerdinger@fl ightglobal.com may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or Business Development Manager Lauren Cooper Americas Air Transport Editor Pilar Wolfsteller +44 20 8092 4085 lauren.cooper@fl ightglobal.com transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, +1 510 634 3496 pilar.wolfsteller@fl ightglobal.com mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, Aviation Reporter Garrett Reim without the prior permission in writing of the +1 571 216 5327 garrett.reim@fl ightglobal.com CLASSIFIED publishers. Key Account Manager Jay Ee Registered at the Post Offi ce as a newspaper +65 9173 3502 jay.ee@fl ightglobal.com ASIA/PACIFIC Published by DVV Media International Ltd, Asia Editor Greg Waldron 1st Floor, Chancery House, St Nicholas Way, +65 9489 4153 greg.waldron@fl ightglobal.com ADVERTISEMENT PRODUCTION Sutton, Surrey, SM1 1JB, UK. Reporter Alfred Chua Production Manager Sean Behan +44 20 8092 4078 Newstrade distributed by Marketforce (UK), +65 9643 4228 alfred.chua@fl ightglobal.com 2nd Floor, 5 Churchill Place, Canary Wharf, London, E14 5HU, UK. Tel: +44 20 3787 9001 DATA CIRIUM DASHBOARD EDITORIAL Classifi ed advertising prepress by CCM. Data cited in Flight International is sourced from Printed in Great Britain by William Gibbons and Sons Michael Allen, Oliver Clark, Steve Goldstein, Michael Cirium, a data and analytics company in the wider Gubisch, Naomi Neah, SiMin Ngai, Niall O’Keeff e, travel industry. For Cirium’s data team, contact: Flight International published monthly 12 issues a year. Thomas Risen, Jonathan Robins Trevor Mountford This periodical is sold subject to the following [email protected] conditions: namely that it is not, without the written FLIGHTGLOBAL.COM consent of the publishers fi rst given, lent, re-sold, Online Content Manager Amber Elias hired out or in any unauthorised cover by way of +44 7816 991648 amber.elias@fl ightglobal.com PUBLISHING MANAGEMENT trade, or affi xed to, or as part of, any publication of Managing Director Andy Salter advertising, literary or pictorial matter whatsoever. EDITORIAL PRODUCTION Commercial Director Publishing Sophie Wild No part of the content may be stored electronically, +44 7715 364765 sophie.wild@fl ightglobal.com Group Production Manager Isabel Burton or reproduced or transmitted in any form without the Art Editor Tim Noonan written permission of the Publisher. Layout Copy Editor Tim Norman SUBSCRIPTIONS ISSN 0015-3710 (Print) ISSN 2059-3864 (Online) Consulting Technical Artist Tim Hall Flight International Subscriptions, DVV Media International, DISPLAY ADVERTISEMENT SALES PO Box 302, Haywards Heath, 1st Floor, Chancery House, St Nicholas Way, West Sussex, RH16 3DH, UK Sutton, Surrey, SM1 1JB, UK Subscription Enquiries If you have any subscription queries, please contact customer service: EUROPE +44 330 333 9533 Key Account Manager Grace Murphy To purchase a FlightGlobal Premium subscription, +44 20 8092 4080 grace.murphy@fl ightglobal.com visit FlightGlobal.com/subscribe Sales Support Gillian Cumming +44 20 8092 4082 NORTH & SOUTH AMERICA Print & Digital Subscription Rates Vice-President, North & South America Rob Hancock (best rates are quoted) +1 703 795 5155 robert.hancock@fl ightglobal.com 1 year: £212.50/€229/$293.25 Save up to 15% Sales Director, USA & Canada Brett Ryden 2 years: £450/€484.50/$621 Save up to 10% +1 630 450 1164 brett.ryden@fl ightglobal.com 3 years: £600/€645.85/$828 Save up to 20%

%JGEMQWV(NKIJV+PVGTPCVKQPCNoU+OCIG5VQTG Browse or customise a gift or memento from our %76#9#;#4%*+8' of more than 1000 aircraft drawings YYYƃKIJVINQDCNKOCIGUEQO

78 Flight International May 2021

Heather Ross has a job that many aviators would dream of. She is a test pilot at Boeing, currently working on the airframer’s newest project, the 777X. It’s a very different career to her original aspiration In tune with the largest twinjet

Pilar Wolfsteller Las Vegas Nine years after leaving Boeing, Ross was back, this time with the credentials to sit up front. Of her 9,200h total time in the cockpit, more than eather Ross was not destined to be a test pilot. half are flight-testing hours accumulated with Boeing. She stumbled into the cockpit “very much by Ross now holds US Federal Aviation Administration accident”, thanks to two brothers who were type ratings on the airframer’s 737, 747, 757, 767, also interested in aviation. She had initially 777 and 787 models – every commercial aircraft the Hplanned to be a musician. company builds. But at university, the woodwind specialist quickly As deputy chief pilot for the 777X programme, recognised that music would not be a career in which she is an “engineering project pilot”, meaning she she could thrive. is one of the professional aviators to be involved in “It was kind of the same thing over and over again. the programme from day one. She spent 10 years I’d played in all sorts of groups – marching bands, jazz on the 787 before shifting to the 777X development bands, orchestras, and all that. Maybe I was burnt out. programme six years ago. And I wasn’t sure if I could eke out a career.” “I get to focus on that airplane. There are so many Her first cockpit experience was “an epiphany”. paths that an airplane design can go down,” she says. “That’s when I realised, ‘Oh, wow, this is incredible’. “If some of them don’t work or meet pilot expectations, I mean, the world is three-dimensional… There’s now or if they are hard to implement, having a pilot help this vertical aspect to seeing the world. The things that early on with the design really prevents last minute were familiar to you in two dimensions take on another changes and realisations.” one as you fly above it all.” The test campaign associated with any new aircraft design is extremely meticulous and disciplined, with all Personal views systems verified over and over in simulators and labs With an aviation career that now spans almost four on the ground. decades, 59-year-old Ross has come a long way since that epiphany. In the meantime, she has personally seen the industry from all sides. As deputy chief pilot for the 777X, Ross Ross arrived at Boeing in 1985 with a degree in has focused on programme from day one aeronautics and astronautics in hand, and worked as a flight-test analysis engineer. “I loved the job. It was great. I got to fly on the airplanes – but in the back of the airplanes,” she says. What she really wanted was to be up front. However, at the time, Ross had nowhere near the level of flying experience needed to compete for a job as a test pilot. So, in 1988 she joined the US Air Force, becoming type-rated on the Cessna T-37 and Northrop T-38 trainers and the Lockheed Martin C-5 and C-141 airlifters, and flew more than 40 missions in the first Gulf War. She then had a stint at United Airlines as a

Boeing 737 pilot, and flight engineer on 727s and 747s. Boeing

82 Flight International May 2021 Women in aviation

“Flying any airplane, regardless of whether it’s the fi rst time that particular airplane is fl own, or the fi rst time that type has ever fl own, is always exciting”

“By the time that the crew gets in the airplane for the fi rst fl ight, we’ve tested all of the parts of the airplane and the pieces and all the diff erent components,” Ross says. The pilots and the equipment have prepared for all possible scenarios. “It’s a very, very methodical, very careful build up in preparation for fi rst fl ight.” Though Ross has never been at the controls during a type’s fi rst fl ight, she maintains an excitement and a fascination for the process and the teamwork that goes into making an aircraft defy gravity. “Flying any airplane, regardless of whether it’s the fi rst time that particular airplane is fl own, or the fi rst time that type has ever fl own, is always exciting,” Ross says. “I still feel the same every time I push the power up, even on an airplane that I’ve fl own 100 times. “It’s that realisation of everything coming together. People’s eff orts, expertise, knowledge and care. Everybody’s focused on achieving the same goal, which is to get the airplane airborne, and off er a great product, ultimately, for our customers and for the fl ying public,” she says. Ross is among a handful of women doing a job that thousands of professional pilots – male and female – would covet. “Airplanes are built so that you don’t have to have unusual strength, which is great because it means that Ross has FAA type ratings on every women can fl y them just as well as men can,” she says. commercial aircraft Boeing builds ◗ Boeing “The airplane doesn’t care.”

Access all areas Subscribe to FlightGlobal Premium

Get unrestricted access to all FlightGlobal content, including Subscribe now at the latest from Flight International and Airline Business, plus more. FlightGlobal.com/subscribe

May 2021 Flight International 83