Cheshire & Warrington Local Economic Assessment Part 1

Cheshire & Warrington Local Economic Assessment Part 1: Economic Overview and SWOT Report

Produced by: Cheshire East Council Cheshire West & Chester Council Warrington Borough Council Cheshire & Warrington Enterprise Commission

June 2011 (V5 - 10/6/11 version)

Table of Contents

Glossary of Terms & Abbreviations 3

Maps of Cheshire & Warrington Administrative Areas 7

1. Executive Summary 10

2. Introduction 23

3. Enterprise, Investment & Innovation 27

4. Employment, Skills & Worklessness 34

5. Commercial Land & Property 40

6. Transport & the Environment 44

7. Broadband & IT 51

8. Communities & Culture 54

9. Cheshire & Warrington Business Needs Survey 2011 61

Further information about the production of this report 66

Glossary of Terms & Abbreviations APB (Area Partnership Board): political sub-division of Cheshire West & Chester Council. The Council is divided into five APBs. Map 3 (after this glossary) shows the areas that these APBs cover.

BIS: Department for Business, Innovation & Skills.

“Cheshire”, “Cheshire County” or “Cheshire NUTS3”: the area formerly covered by Cheshire County Council and now by the two Unitary Authorities of Cheshire East and Cheshire West & Chester.

“Cheshire NUTS2”: Cheshire, Halton & Warrington, i.e. the area covered by the four Unitary Authorities of Cheshire East, Cheshire West & Chester, Halton and Warrington.

Cheshire & Warrington: the area covered by the three Unitary Authorities of Cheshire East, Cheshire West & Chester and Warrington (shown in the maps that follow this glossary).

Child deprivation: deprivation (see definition below) that affects children.

Deprivation: a lack of resources (financial or otherwise) which prevents people from participating in those activities and accessing those basic necessities that are commonly available to most other members of the same society.

CWEM (Cheshire & Warrington Econometric Model): economic forecasting model maintained by Cheshire East Council on behalf of the Cheshire & Warrington Local Authorities and other public sector partner organisations.

DCLG: Department for Communities and Local Government.

DCMS: Department for Culture, Media and Sport.

Defra: Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs.

DfES: the former Department for Education and Skills (now the Department for Education).

DfT: Department for Transport.

DWP: Department for Work and Pensions.

Economic activity rate: The proportion of residents in a particular age group who are employed or unemployed. The age group in question normally excludes under 16s and the elderly.

EET: In Education, Employment or Training (only applies to young people).

Employment rate: The proportion of residents in a particular age group who are employed. The age group in question normally excludes under 16s and the elderly.

Former (Cheshire) Districts: the six Cheshire District Councils – Chester, Congleton, Crewe & Nantwich, Ellesmere Port & Neston, Macclesfield and Vale Royal – which were abolished in 2009. Map 2 (after this glossary) shows the areas that these Districts covered, and how they relate to current Cheshire Unitary Authority boundaries.

GDHI: Gross Disposable Household Income.

GVA: Gross Value Added. GVA is a commonly-used measure of the value of economic output. Unlike GDP (Gross Domestic Product), it can be calculated for sub-national areas such as Cheshire & Warrington.

ILO: International Labour Organization.

ITAs: Integrated Transport Authorities. In February 2009, PTE (Passenger Transport Executive) areas became ITAs through implementation of the 2008 Local Transport Act. They took on full responsibility for transport, including Local Transport Plans, which were previously the responsibility of the Local Authorities in the PTE area. Merseytravel and Transport for Greater Manchester are the two ITAs adjacent to Cheshire & Warrington.

JSA: Jobseeker’s Allowance.

Labour Force: The number of residents of a particular area who are economically active, i.e. in employment or unemployed.

LAP (Local Area Partnership): political sub-division of Cheshire East Council. The Council is divided into seven LAPs. Map 3 (after this glossary) shows the areas that these LAPs cover.

LEP: Local Enterprise Partnership. The Cheshire & Warrington LEP is one of 34 in England which were approved by the Coalition Government in late 2010. The Local

Growth White Paper (November 2010, Cm. 7961) states "LEPs will provide the clear vision and strategic leadership to drive sustainable private sector-led growth and job creation. We particularly encourage partnerships working in respect to transport, housing and planning as part of an integrated approach to growth and infrastructure delivery.”

LLSOAs (Lower Layer Super Output Areas): geographical areas developed by the Office for National Statistics. LLSOAs consist of wards or smaller (sub-ward) areas and each have a population of around 1,500. There are 567 LLSOAs in Cheshire & Warrington: 231 in Cheshire East, 211 in Cheshire West & Chester and 125 in Warrington.

LSTF: Local Sustainable Transport Fund.

MMU: Manchester Metropolitan University.

NEET: Young people who are Not In Education, Employment or Training.

NUTS: A classification system of geographical areas, which was created by the European Office for Statistics (Eurostat) for statistical purposes. Within England, NUTS level 1 equates to regions (e.g. the North West), level 2 to Counties or groups of Counties/ Unitary Authorities (e.g. Cheshire County, Halton and Warrington) and level 3 to Counties or groups of Unitary Authorities (e.g. Halton and Warrington).

NVQ: National Vocational Qualification.

NWDA: Northwest Regional Development Agency.

ONS: Office for National Statistics.

PTEs: Passenger Transport Executives (now replaced by Integrated Transport Authorities).

Retirement age population: For the purposes of this report, “retirement age” means males aged 65 and above and females aged 60 and above.

SEMMMS: South East Manchester Multi Modal Strategy. SEMMMS covers parts of the Cheshire East, Derbyshire, Stockport and Tameside Local Authority areas. The strategy aims to improve public transport, improve the use of road space, encourage transport change, encourage urban regeneration and improve highways.

SIC2003: UK Standard Industrial Classification of Economic Activities 2003 (a classification of industrial activities developed by the Office for National Statistics).

SOC2000: Standard Occupation Classification 2000 (a classification of occupations developed by the Office for National Statistics).

Superfast broadband: the combination of infrastructure and technology that delivers very high speed broadband access. the “sub-region”: Cheshire & Warrington.

SWOT: analysis of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats.

Working age population: For the purposes of this report, “working age” means males aged 16-64 and females aged 16-59.

Workless: economically inactive, or unemployed and looking for work.

Maps of Cheshire & Warrington Administrative Areas Map 1: Cheshire & Warrington sub-region and its Unitary Authorities (from 2009 onwards)

Map 2: Cheshire & Warrington Local Authorities before and after 2009

Map 3: Cheshire Area Partnership (APB and LAP) boundaries (2009 onwards)

1. Executive Summary

1.1 Background The main purpose of this Local Economic Assessment (LEA) is to provide a comprehensive and robust evidence base for informing socio-economic policy and strategy, and for improving the delivery of key public services. The intention is that the new Cheshire & Warrington Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP1), along with the area’s three Local Authorities and other public sector partners, will be able to use this collective LEA evidence to develop economic priorities for the Cheshire & Warrington sub-region. In particular, the LEA serves, amongst other things, as the evidence base that could inform the development of future Cheshire & Warrington economic strategy.

The LEA provides up-to-date intelligence on the Cheshire & Warrington economy and on issues that affect economic activity. It includes evidence on a wide range of topics, including population, the labour market, qualifications and skills, enterprise, housing, commercial land and property, social inclusion, quality of life, culture, tourism, transport and the environment. However, rather than looking at the Cheshire & Warrington sub-region in isolation, it considers interactions with neighbouring areas, common interests and challenges, and puts the sub-region’s performance in a regional and national context.

This sub-regional (Cheshire & Warrington) LEA consists of two separate Parts, which complement each other, but which can also be used as stand-alone reports. Part 1 provides an overview of the key issues and their implications. Part 2 contains the supporting evidence that underpins and informs Part 1.

Part 1 contains an Executive Summary (this chapter), background information (Chapter 2), and six individual chapters (Chapters 3 to 8) covering particular topics. These chapters also contain detailed “SWOT” tables, listing the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats that fall within each topic. The final chapter, Chapter 9, presents and interprets the results of 2011 Cheshire & Warrington Business Needs Survey, which was undertaken some months after the completion of Part 2. However, whilst this final chapter offers a detailed overview of the Business Needs Survey, the other chapters make references to those specific survey results that relate to their particular subject matter.

Part 2 contains a discussion and interpretation of the underlying evidence, which is broken down into twelve topics (one per chapter).

1 The Local Growth White Paper (November 2010, Cm. 7961) states "LEPs will provide the clear vision and strategic leadership to drive sustainable private sector-led growth and job creation. We particularly encourage partnerships working in respect to transport, housing and planning as part of an integrated approach to growth and infrastructure delivery.”

There are also separate LEA reports for each of the three Cheshire & Warrington Authorities. These Local Authority level LEAs can be used as stand-alone reports, or in tandem with the Cheshire & Warrington sub-regional LEA.

1.2 Economic Strengths Cheshire and Warrington’s economic performance already exceeds that of its neighbours in many respects. For example, as Part 2 of this LEA notes, it accounts for just one in eight (12.9%) of the North West’s residents, but one in seven (14.3% of the region’s employees and a sixth (16.2%) of its economic output (GVA). By 2007, Cheshire & Warrington’s economy was worth an estimated £18.0bn in GVA. As Part 2 also notes, GVA per head in the wider “Cheshire NUTS2” area (Cheshire, Halton and Warrington) was 6.5% above the UK average in 2007, with high productivity and net inward commuting making a key contribution to this.

More specifically, as Part 2 indicates, the area’s key strengths include: the significant presence of high tech, high skill (so-called Knowledge Economy) sectors such Chemicals, Pharmaceuticals, Nuclear, Advanced Engineering and Creative Industries.

local strengths in other sectors, such as Motor Vehicle manufacture, Financial Services and Logistics.

its strong entrepreneurial culture, with its business birth rate and business density (stock of businesses per 10,000 adult residents) being far above the North West and UK averages.

the strategically significant employment sites within the sub-region. These include Alderley Park near Alderley Edge, Basford in Crewe, Central Chester, Central Warrington and Omega (also in Warrington). Another strategic regional site, Daresbury Park, lies just outside.

the economic strength of its major towns and cities. Chester is an important retail centre. Both it and Warrington are leading locations for the office property market. Warrington and Crewe are the sub-region’s premier locations for industrial and distribution units, with Middlewich and Sandbach growing in importance. Warrington Borough and the former Districts of Chester, Crewe & Nantwich and Macclesfield also see large net inflows of labour. This suggests that Cheshire & Warrington’s largest towns, such as Chester, Crewe and Warrington, are relatively successful in providing employment and generating economic activity.

high levels of labour market engagement (e.g. economic activity and employment rates which compare favourably to the North West and Great Britain).

low unemployment rates and less deprivation than neighbouring areas (although many local concentrations of deprivation and worklessness do of course exist).

the high proportion of residents with graduate level skills.

its unique visitor attractions, such as Chester (with its zoo, city walls, cathedral, amphitheatre, racecourse and “Rows” shops), Tatton Park, Jodrell Bank and the Peak District, and the relative accessibility of tourism destinations in neighbouring regions (e.g. Liverpool, Manchester, Snowdonia).

the presence of highly-regarded (and in some cases nationally renowned) FE colleges, and the proximity of some of the UK’s major universities.

its transport network. There is direct access to the national motorway network (M6, M53, M56 and M62) and the strategic road network. There are direct train services to London from its key towns and cities. Crewe Station, which is at the junction of six main rail lines, is of particular strategic importance, and Warrington also has very strong rail links (both east-west and north-south). Chester, Crewe and Warrington all benefit from good rail connections, both to each other and to Greater Manchester, Merseyside and northeast Wales. Furthermore, Manchester and Liverpool John Lennon Airports are relatively close.

its high quality of life, with an attractive network of green space and waterways and major cultural assets (listed above). Life expectancy is above the North West and England averages.

The 2011 Cheshire & Warrington Business Needs Survey, which was undertaken after Part 2 of the LEA and involved interviews with a representative sample of over 1,500 firms, provides additional evidence about the area’s strengths. In particular, the survey shows that: businesses rate Cheshire & Warrington highly as a location. When asked about the advantages of being based in their Local Authority area, Cheshire & Warrington businesses are most likely to mention transport links (cited by 60% of survey respondents), the attractiveness of the area (59%), access to neighbouring markets/ cities (52%) and proximity to suppliers (38%). Of those companies which say they are likely to relocate in the next five years, six out of ten expect to stay within their existing Local Authority. In summary, it seems that businesses are keen to start up and expand in (or relocate to) Cheshire & Warrington because they find the area attractive and benefit from its strong road and rail links and its proximity to major economic centres such as Manchester and Liverpool.

a high proportion of Cheshire & Warrington firms have internet, broadband and website access. Of those organisations which employ 1-10 staff, 87% have broadband and 75% have a website. For larger firms, these proportions are higher still.

there is already a lot of collaboration between Cheshire & Warrington businesses and external organisations, although there is scope for more such joint-working. Two fifths of those surveyed had links to another organisation (such as a local business network or an FE college).

1.3 Key Opportunities & Challenges Part 2 of the LEA also highlights a number of key opportunities and challenges. Some of these relate to problems or disadvantages. However, many others are about building on Cheshire & Warrington’s assets and making the most of its existing strengths. These opportunities and challenges are outlined in Sections 1.31 to 1.36 below.

Section 1.37 highlights the challenges and opportunities identified in the Cheshire & Warrington Business Needs Survey. Amongst other issues, it covers broadband/ IT challenges and opportunities, most notably superfast broadband.

1.31 Enterprise, investment & innovation Ensuring that high growth industries and businesses realise their potential. Local economic forecasts from the Cheshire & Warrington Econometric Model (CWEM) suggest that economic output (GVA) growth is likely to be relatively strong in the Pharmaceuticals, Computing Services, Communications, Banking & Finance and Professional Services sectors. There is also scope for further development of the Creative, Digital and Media sectors, which have grown robustly in the southern Greater Manchester/ northeast Cheshire area and the impact of Salford’s MediaCityUK is likely to spill over into Cheshire & Warrington. Cheshire & Warrington also has a relatively large proportion of small businesses and it is important to ensure that these firms are able to grow.

Creating even better conditions for private sector investment. While some types of economic growth will require public sector led intervention, many rely on private sector investment. In the current climate of public sector cuts and job losses, private sector job creation has a particularly important role to play. However, private sector input can only be secured if conditions are right: for example, the intended location has to be attractive (in terms of cost, quality, etc) and present a positive image. Whilst Cheshire & Warrington as a whole is an attractive location for economic activity, some parts of the sub-region are perceived in a less positive light by would-be investors, businesses, migrants and visitors. Key opportunities could therefore include

bringing forward new employment sites, improving or expanding new sites and regenerating less successful town centres.

Fostering an improved enterprise culture in some geographical areas, particularly the former District of Ellesmere Port & Neston. Both the District’s birth rate and its business density are well below the North West and UK averages. Crewe & Nantwich also falls slightly short of the North West and UK figures.

Supporting and harnessing the economic potential of Cheshire & Warrington’s market towns and rural areas. There is scope for increasing the economic contribution of market towns and rural areas, and also a need to make key services more accessible to rural communities.

Improving links and collaboration between research institutions and other bodies. As noted in the list of strengths, there are highly-regarded FE colleges within Cheshire & Warrington, as well as MMU’s Cheshire campuses and the University of Chester. Key centres of excellence include Reaseheath (a nationally-renowned agricultural, horticultural and animal management college), MMU’s Crewe-based Institute of Education (which undertakes world- class research) and Jodrell Bank (home of the world-famous Lovell Radio Telescope). Cheshire & Warrington is also in close proximity to Keele University and the universities in Liverpool and Manchester.

1.32 Employment, skills & worklessness Reducing the likelihood and the impact of large-scale job losses. Some of Cheshire & Warrington’s major industries, such as Motor Vehicle manufacture, have shed a large proportion of their workforce over time. These trends are likely to continue, as global competition forces firms to restructure and constrain labour costs. Even some very high-skill sectors, like Pharmaceuticals, have undergone redundancy programmes in recent years and may continue in the same vein. Many of the firms involved (e.g. AstraZeneca and Vauxhall) are among the sub-region’s largest employers and most of these have just one or two sites within Cheshire & Warrington. Redundancies can therefore have a particularly dramatic effect on local towns and communities. This makes it all the more important that Cheshire & Warrington public sector bodies work closely with the industries and employers concerned, seek to identify redundancy risks at an early stage and safeguard jobs where this is viable and, in other cases, enable redundant staff to find work. For example, there is a need to ensure that redundant staff can access the training that will help them to secure new jobs, and to provide the funding and other support that is necessary to help them start up new businesses.

Creating employment opportunities in areas of Cheshire & Warrington where jobs are scarce and there are limited prospects for future employment growth. More specifically, the former Districts of Congleton and Ellesmere Port & Neston (and to a lesser extent Vale Royal) have low job densities (i.e. the number of jobs is less than the number of economically

active local residents). Consequently these areas see a large net outflow of labour. More generally, the new Coalition Government has responded to the recent recession and the size of the National Debt by making substantial cuts to public sector spending. As a result, the public sector is shedding a large proportion of its workforce. Even the CWEM’s latest local economic forecasts (which slightly predate the change of government) suggest that Cheshire & Warrington’s long-term employment growth will be minimal and could even fall in the three Districts listed above. If employment is to grow across the sub- region and better match local labour supply in those locations where there is a jobs shortage, then policy intervention (i.e. job creation schemes) will probably be required. However, it is important to ensure that new jobs are created in high-skill, knowledge-intensive industries, not just in lower-value added sectors.

Addressing worklessness among young people. The claimant unemployment rate for Cheshire & Warrington’s 19-24 year-olds compares favourably to the North West and UK averages for this age group, but is still considerably higher than for other age groups. In some parts of the sub- region, more than 7% of 16-18 year-olds are NEET (Not in Education, Employment or Training).

Improving skill levels in some geographical areas, particularly the former Districts of Crewe & Nantwich and Ellesmere Port & Neston. Both Districts have a low proportion of 16-64 year-old residents with degree-level qualifications (below the North West and Great Britain averages). Low skill levels preclude unemployed residents from many job opportunities and limit the contribution that employed residents can make to their workplace.

Improving skills and qualifications throughout the sub-region, so that Cheshire & Warrington can take full advantage of future industrial and occupational change. Local economic forecasts (from the CWEM) suggest that higher-skill occupations will become increasingly important over the next decade, so it is critical that skill levels rise to match this.

Attracting and retaining more high-skill labour. At present, a large proportion of Cheshire & Warrington’s best-qualified residents commute to jobs outside the sub-region, and therefore their contribution to the Cheshire & Warrington economy is not as great as it would be if they worked at a local site. There is also a need to provide new graduates with a greater incentive to stay in Cheshire & Warrington and contribute to its economy. However, these challenges can only be addressed if additional high-skill jobs are available at suitable sites, if quality of life remains high, if suitable and affordable housing is still provided in attractive locations and if key services and culture/ leisure facilities are accessible.

1.33 Commercial land & property Regeneration of town centres and other strategic locations. Within Crewe alone, key opportunities include the development of Basford East and Basford West sites, improvements to Crewe Station, other elements of the Crewe

Gateway University Quadrant, redevelopment of the town centre and the regeneration of the West End. Potential developments in Warrington include major sites in the town centre (Bridge St Area, Central Hub/ Wire works, Bank Park and Warrington Waterfront) and the Omega site. Other opportunities include Chester city centre, Ellesmere Port, Macclesfield Town/ the South Macclesfield Development site, the Weaver Valley and Weaver Towns (Middlewich, Northwich and Winsford), and smaller market towns and settlements in rural areas. There is also a more general need to make use, where possible, of previously-developed land, rather than resorting to greenfield sites.

Development of major employment sites. This could include some of the thirteen sites identified in the 2009 Cheshire & Warrington Employment Land & Sites Study (listed under “Opportunities” in Section 5.2 of Chapter 5).

Rebalancing commercial land & property demand and supply in some parts of the sub-region. At some sites, vacancy rates are high, whilst in other areas there is a lack of suitable and immediately available employment land and premises.

1.34 Transport & the environment Addressing the limitations of the transport network in some locations. While much of the sub-region is well served by strategic motorway and rail connections, road and rail networks are more limited in the southern and central parts of the sub-region. Parts of the former Macclesfield District (in Cheshire East) are also remote. Bus services are generally good and well- used within Cheshire & Warrington’s larger towns and cities, but are also weak in some respects, with few services running between towns and a relatively low proportion of Cheshire (but not Warrington) residents expressing satisfaction with their local services. Train services are often overcrowded at peak times, for example services accessing Manchester on the Buxton- Piccadilly route. Different public transport operators, Local Authorities and Integrated Transport Authorities (ITAs) employ different ticketing policies and arrangements, which also makes it less attractive to make longer journeys by public transport. Generally there is a high dependence on private vehicles and a low rate of public transport usage, which is reflected in higher CO2 emissions, poorer air quality, congestion and quicker deterioration in the quality of the road network. With high levels of car dependency, it is likely that traffic volumes will continue to grow as the economy recovers.

Ensuring that major transport improvement projects proceed and realise their potential. These include the SEMMMS major road scheme (which would make the motorway network more accessible from eastern Cheshire), the Crewe Green Link Road Southern Section (which would help to reduce cross- town congestion, improve journey time reliability, open up development land and improve access to employment from deprived areas of the town) and improvements to Crewe Station and the development of a new transport interchange in the town. Other possibilities (in the medium or long term) are the Manchester/ Northern Hub rail project, the reopening of the Middlewich

16 railway line, new stations such as Chapelford in Warrington and a tram-train service on the Chester-Manchester line. The Halton Curve is another important scheme in the medium to long term: it would improve rail links between north Cheshire/ northeast Wales and southern Merseyside/ Liverpool John Lennon Airport. Proposals for a second High Speed rail line (HS2) are also progressing and this represents another medium to long term opportunity. The first phase of the proposed line runs from London to Birmingham. Further phases include a spur to Manchester and it is highly likely that this line would pass through part of Cheshire & Warrington (see Chapter 6 for more details). It would also release capacity on the congested West Coast Main Line and provide opportunities for improving services on this line. However, these projects are heavily dependent on public sector funding, which at present is severely constrained.

Tackling congestion. Peak time congestion affects the M6, M56, A500 Barthomley link (from the M6 into Crewe), A534 (Nantwich Road/ train station in Crewe) and A556 in Cheshire East; the M53, M56, A49 and A55 in Cheshire West & Chester; and the A49, A50, A56 and A5061 in Warrington. Also affected are Chester, Congleton, Knutsford, Macclesfield, Northwich and Warrington town centres, parts of Disley and some of the major routes in and out of Crewe.

Developing and encouraging more sustainable travel. A good example is Chester’s park and ride system, under which inward travellers alleviate congestion problems by parking on the city’s outskirts and travelling into the centre by bus. This scheme could be replicated in other towns in Cheshire & Warrington, such as Macclesfield and Warrington. There are already projects underway (in Chester, in the Crewe/ Nantwich area and in Warrington) to develop cycle routes and promote cycling and potential exists for further development, particularly in Crewe. There may also be opportunities to facilitate and encourage use of electric cars and to make recharging points (for these cars) more widely available. Train services could be made more sustainable by expanding the current electrification proposals for the North West to more rail lines. Potential lines for electrification include the Crewe- Chester route. There is also potential, in the medium or long term, to extend Greater Manchester’s tram-train system from Altrincham into Northwich (via Knutsford). More generally, there is an opportunity to promote workplace travel plans and personalised journey planning, so that people are able and willing to travel to workplaces, training sites and leisure/ cultural facilities using more sustainable modes of transport. (As Section 1.37 notes, new IT technologies such as superfast broadband can also help, by enabling more people to work from home, or to hold videoconferencing meetings.)

Reducing the impact that industry has on climate change.CO2 emissions per capita are above the UK and North West averages in all three Cheshire & Warrington Authorities. Emissions per capita are particularly high in the former Districts of Ellesmere Port & Neston and Vale Royal (both in Cheshire West & Chester) and this in part reflects these areas’ industrial composition. There may be opportunities for more freight to be transported by water or rail – which could reduce direct CO2 emissions - and the sub-region’s advanced

engineering expertise could be employed in the development of renewable energy schemes.

1.35 Communities & culture Addressing the impacts and opportunities presented by Cheshire & Warrington’s ageing population. The number of young working-age people (age 16-44) is expected to fall between 2007 and 2027, which may make it harder for employers to fill vacancies. The 65+ population is forecast to grow by more than half over the same period. This will result in increased demand for the sort of services that older people are more likely to use, such as hospitals, care services, public transport and some types of leisure/ cultural services. Such a change adds to the pressure on these services, but also presents an opportunity for businesses to grow and to develop new products and services.

Making best use of the skills and experience of economic migrants. Thousands of migrants, particularly from Eastern Europe, have come to Cheshire & Warrington over the last decade. Many are well-qualified, yet in low-skill jobs, so their skills could be put to better use. They could also play a role in forging links with East European businesses.

Ensuring there is adequate housing provision, particularly affordable housing. In both Cheshire Authorities, the ratio of median house prices to median earnings (a measure of housing affordability) is above the England and North West averages. A range of housing is required to meet the needs of growing numbers of elderly people, those of young single people and couples, as well as the wider workforce, in order to support economic development and growth. In some parts of Cheshire & Warrington, there is a lack of available and suitable sites for housing development. Furthermore, house builders are now more cautious about starting new developments. This reflects the post-recession economic climate (with financial institutions, for example, being more risk-averse when offering mortgages). These factors present an extra challenge in building additional dwellings. Yet without suitable housing provision, there may be future shortages of labour. A shortage of housing is also likely to result in people travelling further to workplaces, which in turn puts pressure on transport infrastructure and networks, as well as decreasing the viability of local shops, services and community activities (particularly in smaller settlements). However, good progress has been made: in particular, provision of affordable dwellings is growing, both in absolute terms and as a proportion of total housing development.

Tackling localised unemployment and deprivation. Despite the general affluence of the Cheshire & Warrington area, some neighbourhoods suffer from severe economic and social deprivation and relatively high rates of unemployment. All three of the sub-region’s Local Authorities and each of its nine largest towns – Chester, Congleton, Crewe, Ellesmere Port, Macclesfield, Northwich, Warrington, Wilmslow/ Handforth and Winsford – has at least one deprived area. All three Authorities also have neighbourhoods

affected by of child deprivation, which has implications for these communities’ long-term prosperity and wellbeing. There is a need to stimulate enterprise and new business creation in these areas, so that more job opportunities are available. There is also a need to make jobs more accessible to deprived communities, by improving residents’ skills and strengthening transport links between these neighbourhoods and major employment sites.

Helping those neighbourhoods that have high levels of ill health and disability. While Cheshire & Warrington residents’ health is generally good, there are some parts of the sub-region where illness and disability are relatively common. For example, there are 27 Lower Layer Super Output Areas (out of a total of 567) in which a quarter or more of residents have a limiting long-term illness that constrains their day-to-day activities.

Addressing the limitations of (and dissatisfaction with) local cultural facilities and services. Cheshire & Warrington has many cultural assets and attracts many visitors, but, even still, there is scope for further improvement. In particular, the sub-region lacks premier-league football clubs, venues which can house large-scale entertainment events (such as major pop concerts) and a concert hall. It also has a more limited range of other venues (e.g. theatres, cinemas, museums/ galleries) than some neighbouring areas. Besides this, a relatively low proportion of Cheshire residents are satisfied with local sports and cultural facilities. If Cheshire & Warrington were able to provide better and more extensive cultural facilities, it could compete more effectively with its neighbours and could increase the size of its visitor economy still further. Such improvements could also help in attracting and retaining high-skill professional workers, and the businesses that employ such people.

1.36 Collaboration with partners outside Cheshire & Warrington Developing links with partner organisations in neighbouring areas. There are already strong, mutually beneficial links with neighbouring areas, particularly Greater Manchester, Merseyside, North Staffordshire and North East Wales. More specifically, there are some shared labour markets, as demonstrated by the large commuting flows to and from these neighbouring areas. Many Cheshire & Warrington residents visit cultural venues and other visitor attractions in adjacent Authorities (and vice-versa). Furthermore, many of the industries that are important to Cheshire & Warrington also have a major presence in the surrounding Local Authorities. Hence there are many common issues, interests and challenges. These can be beneficially developed further, by working with the neighbouring LEPs, other sub-regional partnerships such as the Mersey Dee Alliance, Local Authorities and other public sector agencies.

1.37 Cheshire & Warrington Business Needs Survey 2011 The 2011 Business Needs Survey also provides a lot of information on the challenges that Cheshire & Warrington faces:

It confirms that prospects for future economic growth are likely to be limited, at least in the short term. It found that less than two fifths of employers had recruited any staff in the last 12 months and slightly fewer (a third) expected to do so in the next 12 months.

It shows that businesses see congestion (and also parking problems) as being one of the main disadvantages of Cheshire & Warrington as a location. However, less than 10% of firms mentioned any one disadvantage, so the problem is a localised rather than a universal one. Hence any policy response needs to be targeted at those specific streets or neighbourhoods where there is a genuine problem.

The survey also highlights some challenges which are not identified in the LEA Part 2: Supporting the construction sector in the current economic climate. The survey results suggest that this sector is relatively vulnerable at present. Firms in this sector were the least optimistic about how the business climate would change in the next 12 months.

Addressing businesses’ concerns about the impact of “over-regulation/ red tape” on business performance. This was one of the most commonly-cited barriers to growth. However, “over-regulation/ red tape” was not defined in interviews and it may mean different things to different organisations. There is a need to find out which regulations businesses see as excessive and which organisations are responsible for creating and implementing these regulations. Clearly it is much easier for Cheshire & Warrington public sector partners to alter their own regulations than to influence regulations created by national bodies.

Ensuring that local working-age residents have the skills that businesses need. The survey found that a lack of relevant skills was the most common reason for vacancies being hard to fill.

Ensuring that existing staff have the skills that their employer needs. Sales and marketing skills, IT skills and customer care skills were all identified as a skills gap by at least a quarter of companies.

Encouraging and supporting businesses in making more environmental improvements. Whilst most Cheshire & Warrington companies have already taken some action to improve their environmental performance (e.g. recycling or introducing/ buying environmentally friendly products), a quarter have not. More specifically, relatively few have taken action to reduce the environmental impact of their travel activities: only one in ten have a travel plan and fewer than one in seven use environmentally sustainable vehicles.

Encouraging broadband/ internet use among those firms that still lack this technology. As noted in Section 1.2, the vast majority of local businesses have broadband, but more than one in ten of Cheshire & Warrington’s small firms (those with 1-10 employees) do not.

Improving the quality of existing broadband and mobile phone networks. Two thirds of firms were satisfied with their broadband network. However, this means that a third were less than satisfied. For mobile phone coverage, the proportions were roughly the same (two thirds satisfied, while the rest were not). Inadequate provision could be holding back business competitiveness.

Providing a fully-connected superfast broadband infrastructure and extending access to other new IT technologies. Superfast broadband can enable businesses and consumers to buy, sell and access goods and services more efficiently. It can also enable firms to develop new products and services, and to expand into new markets. Superfast broadband can also make it easier for firms to start up and thrive in locations that are more remote (i.e. away from major towns and cities and from major road and rail networks). In other words, it allows businesses to operate from a wider range of locations and to serve a wider geographical market. As such, it has a vital role to play in supporting business growth and business start-ups. It can also enable more people to work, access services and buy products from home – meaning that fewer journeys are needed and less pressure is placed on transport networks. Superfast broadband can also make it easier to hold videoconferences, thereby reducing the need for people to travel to meetings. It could therefore be an important part of efforts to reduce congestion and CO2 emissions. However, the Business Needs Survey found that only a fifth of Cheshire & Warrington firms currently have superfast broadband and this reflects the fact that the technology is not yet available in many parts of Cheshire & Warrington.

Meeting businesses’ demand for external support and advice. A third of businesses had sought advice or support from Business Link in the last 12 months and more than a tenth approached the Northwest Development Agency (NWDA). The NWDA is being abolished and Business Link has seen sharp cuts to its budget, so the business community will increasingly look to other organisations for business support and advice.

1.4 Summary “SWOT” Table This SWOT table summarises the key strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats that are identified in Sections 1.2 and 1.3 of this report. More detailed SWOT tables (with underlying statistics) are in Chapters 3 to 8. Strengths Weaknesses A diverse and resilient economy - not too Scarcity of jobs in former Congleton dependent on the public sector for jobs and Ellesmere Port & Neston Districts High proportion of economic activity in Youth unemployment/ worklessness “Knowledge Economy” sectors Low skills levels in Crewe & Nantwich Strong enterprise culture – high business and Ellesmere Port & Neston birth rates and business densities Lack of enterprise culture in Ellesmere Strategically important employment sites, Port & Neston including Alderley Park, Basford (Crewe), House prices are high compared to Omega (Warrington), Warrington Central earnings and Chester Central Local concentrations of severe High economic activity rate/ employment deprivation/ high unemployment in rate and low unemployment rate larger towns and cities, and some Well-qualified labour force – high % with neighbourhoods with high levels of graduate level qualifications disability/ poor health Attractive location and high quality of life Limitations of road and rail network in Motorway network and rail services from southern/ central Cheshire, bus the larger towns and cities, particularly services throughout Cheshire and lack Crewe (rail) and Warrington (road and rail) of connectivity between public Proximity to Liverpool and Manchester transport routes Unique visitor attractions – Chester (e.g. Congestion in major towns and on zoo, city walls, cathedral, “Rows” shops), strategic routes Tatton Park, Jodrell Bank, Peak District Opportunities Threats Growth of high tech, high skill sectors Impact of ageing population and Harnessing the contribution of migrant declining numbers of young working- workers age adults New markets and services created by Weak economic climate and/ or global the needs of an ageing population competition lead to further job losses in Regeneration and development of key sectors and slow overall jobs major town centres, key employment growth sites and market towns/ rural areas Relocation/ off-shoring of high tech Collaboration with research institutions sector activity in Cheshire & Warrington area Inadequate support and advice for Improving the skills of local residents businesses and local firms’ employees Skills and qualification levels do not Roll-out and take-up of superfast keep pace with ongoing industrial and broadband occupational change Development of low carbon economy More outward commuting of high- and sustainable forms of travel skilled residents Benefiting from developments in Insufficient appropriate new housing neighbouring areas, such as Salford’s provision could lead to future shortages MediaCityUK of labour and increased inflow of Major transport projects such as Crewe commuters Green Link Road, the Halton Curve, a Rising levels of CO2 emissions across second High Speed rail line (HS2), the Cheshire & Warrington Manchester/ Northern Hub and Business and economic growth held SEMMMS. back because of low take-up or Development of links with neighbouring ineffective use of new broadband areas technologies

2. Introduction

2.1 What this Local Economic Assessment (LEA) covers This Local Economic Assessment (LEA) provides up-to-date intelligence on the Cheshire & Warrington economy and on issues that affect economic activity. As such, it presents, analyses and interprets evidence on a wide range of topics, including population, the labour market, qualifications and skills, enterprise, housing, commercial land and property, social inclusion, quality of life, culture, tourism, transport and the environment. In order to provide a comprehensive overview of all these issues, the LEA focuses not just on statistics, but also on more qualitative evidence.

As well as presenting and describing this evidence, the LEA highlights its implications. In particular, it identifies the key strengths and weaknesses that currently exist in Cheshire & Warrington, and the opportunities and threats that the area faces.

Rather than considering the area in isolation, the LEA places the Cheshire & Warrington sub-region in its geographical context, by discussing economic activities and common issues that extend beyond Cheshire & Warrington’s boundaries and into neighbouring Authorities. It also makes comparisons between local performance and the regional and national picture.

2.2 Background to the production of this LEA The Assessment was produced as a result of the Local Democracy, Economic Development and Construction Act, which was passed by the former Labour Government in 2009. This Act placed a statutory duty on Unitary and other upper tier Local Authorities to complete a Local Economic Assessment (LEA) from April 2010. This duty was originally accompanied by statutory guidance on the content of the LEA. However, the new Coalition Government revoked this guidance in 2010 and therefore the LEA content is at the discretion of each Local Authority.

The three Cheshire & Warrington Local Authorities – Cheshire East, Cheshire West & Chester and Warrington - and the Cheshire & Warrington Enterprise Commission (CWEC) decided to collaborate on an LEA for the whole area. As part of the same agreement, each of the three individual Local Authorities has also produced a separate LEA for its own Authority.

2.3 Purpose of this LEA The main purpose of this LEA is to provide a comprehensive and robust evidence base for informing socio-economic policy and strategy, and for improving the delivery of key public services. The intention is that the new Cheshire & Warrington Local

Enterprise Partnership (LEP2), which succeeds CWEC as the sub-regional economic partnership, along with individual Cheshire & Warrington public sector partners, will be able to use this collective LEA evidence to develop economic priorities for the sub-region.

More specifically, the LEA is intended to provide much of the evidence that will inform:

the development of the Cheshire & Warrington Local Enterprise Partnership, sub-regional economic strategy (see Section 2.4 below) and bids for Regional Growth Fund money over the next three years.

collaborative approaches and strategy development with adjacent Local Authorities.

the three Local Authorities’ Local Development Frameworks, which set out plans for the provision and location of new housing and employment sites, and the infrastructure needed to support these.

Local Authority economic development strategies, business engagement strategies and visitor economy strategies.

support for inward investment and marketing activities.

skills planning and the commissioning of skills provision.

the development of Local Authority Sustainable Communities Strategies, which set out a shared vision for the area, and priorities for meeting the aspirations and needs of residents.

Local Authority Corporate Plans.

other Local Authority socio-economic plans, strategies and assessments, including Strategic Housing Market Assessments, Local Transport Plans, Child Poverty Needs Assessments and Worklessness Assessments.

It is also hoped that the LEA evidence will help to inform the planning and decision- making of businesses and the wider community, and to inform their understanding of the Cheshire & Warrington area.

2 The Cheshire & Warrington LEP is one of 34 which were approved by the Coalition Government in late 2010, following the submission of LEP proposals from Local Authority and business leaders across England. The Local Growth White Paper (November 2010, Cm. 7961) states "LEPs will provide the clear vision and strategic leadership to drive sustainable private sector-led growth and job creation. We particularly encourage partnerships working in respect to transport, housing and planning as part of an integrated approach to growth and infrastructure delivery.”

2.4 Economic Strategy Development in Cheshire & Warrington In early 2010, work was undertaken on an updated economic strategy for the Cheshire & Warrington sub-region. Amion Consulting were commissioned to produce this strategy, which was called “Unleashing the Potential”. The strategy was developed through a process involving high-level discussion groups. These groups included representatives from the Cheshire & Warrington Enterprise Commission and the three Local Authorities, as well as other partner organisations and stakeholders.

At the time of its production, “Unleashing the Potential” represented and outlined what were then local partners’ growth ambitions for Cheshire & Warrington. It identified particular ambitions for population, jobs and housing growth, and specified the actions that were needed to achieve these ambitions.

However, the Local Economic Assessment contains more recent evidence than that which informed “Unleashing the Potential”. Hence there may be a need to update Cheshire & Warrington’s economic strategy once again. The LEA serves, amongst other things, as the evidence base from which a new strategy could be developed.

2.5 Structure of the Cheshire & Warrington LEA Reports This sub-regional (Cheshire & Warrington) LEA consists of two separate Parts, which complement each other, but which can also be used as stand-alone reports. Part 1 provides an overview of the key issues and their implications. Part 2 contains the supporting evidence that underpins and informs Part 1.

More specifically, Part 1 contains the following: a glossary of the terms and abbreviations that appear in Parts 1 and 2. maps of the Cheshire & Warrington area. an Executive Summary (Chapter 1), including a summary of key strengths, opportunities and challenges. background information on the subject matter, origin and purpose of the LEA, and on economic strategy development in Cheshire & Warrington (in this chapter, Chapter 2). chapters covering the key issues and actions/ priorities relating to Enterprise, Investment & Innovation (Chapter 3), Employment, Skills & Worklessness (Chapter 4), Commercial Land & Property (Chapter 5), Transport & the Environment (Chapter 6), Broadband & IT (Chapter 7) and the area’s diverse Communities & Culture (Chapter 8). Each of these chapters includes detailed “SWOT” tables, listing Cheshire & Warrington’s strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. findings from the 2011 Cheshire & Warrington Business Needs Survey. This survey includes key messages which are relevant to the LEA and therefore forms a key part of the LEA evidence base. However, it was undertaken some

months after the completion of Part 2. Therefore the survey’s findings appear in Part 1 instead. Full Business Needs Survey details are reported in Chapter 9, but there is an overview of the survey results in the Executive Summary. Chapters 3 to 8 also make brief reference to the Business Needs Survey findings that are particularly relevant to their subject matter, and also signpost readers to the relevant sections of Chapter 9. further information about how the Part 1 report was produced.

Part 2 contains the following: background information on the content, origin and purpose of the LEA (Chapter 1). a discussion and interpretation of the underlying evidence. This is broken down into the following topics: Population & Migration (Chapter 2), Overall Economic Performance (Chapter 3), Employment & the Labour Market (Chapter 4), Qualifications & Skills (Chapter 5), Enterprise, Investment & Innovation (Chapter 6), Housing (Chapter 7), Commercial Land & Property (Chapter 8), Social Inclusion, Affluence & Quality of Life (Chapter 9), Culture, Recreation & Tourism (Chapter 10), Transport & the Environment (Chapter 11), Economic Forecasts (Chapter 12) and the Manchester City-Region (Chapter 13). definitions of key sectors (industries) that are discussed in this report. further information about how the Part 2 report was produced.

As noted in Section 2.2 above, there are also separate LEA reports for each of the three Cheshire & Warrington Authorities. These Local Authority level LEAs can be used as stand-alone reports, or in tandem with Parts 1 and 2 of the Cheshire & Warrington sub-regional LEA.

3. Enterprise, Investment & Innovation

3.1 Introduction The Cheshire and Warrington economy is characterised by relatively high levels of business growth and entrepreneurial activity, with strong performance up to the recent economic recession. Both its business birth rate and its business density (the stock of businesses per 10,000 residents aged 16+) are significantly above the North West and UK averages. Compared to other parts of the country, small businesses – those businesses which in theory have the greatest growth potential - make up a relatively large share of Cheshire & Warrington’s business population.

The local economy is therefore in a good position to recover from the recent recession, not least because of those higher levels of enterprise. However, the 2011 Cheshire & Warrington Business Needs Survey found that businesses remain concerned about short-term economic prospects, with the construction sector appearing particularly vulnerable. Given this uncertain economic climate and the abolition or downsizing of business support agencies such as the Northwest Development Agency and Business Link, it is likely that businesses will increasingly look to other organisations for support and advice.

Cheshire & Warrington has high concentrations of and strengths in high tech, high skill (so-called Knowledge Economy) sectors such as Chemicals, Pharmaceuticals, Nuclear, Advanced Engineering and Creative Industries. It also has strengths in some other sectors, such as Motor Vehicle manufacture, Financial Services and Logistics. The Cheshire & Warrington Econometric Model (CWEM) forecasts that economic output (GVA) will grow strongly over the long term in some large sectors – Pharmaceuticals, Computing Services, Communications, Banking & Finance and Professional Services - and it is important to ensure that this potential is realised. In particular, Cheshire & Warrington public sector partners need to address those barriers to business growth that are within their own control. As the 2011 Cheshire & Warrington Business Needs Survey found, “over-regulation/ red tape” was one of the most frequently-cited obstacles. It will be important to identify the specific regulations that most concern businesses and consider what action can be taken.

As the high levels of entrepreneurship and high tech sector activity might suggest, businesses generally take a positive view of Cheshire & Warrington as a location. For example, the 2011 Cheshire & Warrington Business Needs Survey found that nearly six in ten private sector employers saw the attractiveness of their Local Authority area as an advantage. Transport links and access to neighbouring markets/ cities were also strengths cited by more than half of those interviewed.

Nor do local businesses operate in isolation. Among those who took part in the Business Needs Survey, two fifths had links to another organisation. As the survey also found, such collaboration is generally useful to the businesses concerned. More linkages, particularly ones involving research institutions, could help to increase business competitiveness and enable firms to develop more high tech, high productivity goods and services.

Collaboration with neighbouring areas would also help to stimulate growth and regeneration. Cheshire & Warrington shares labour markets with Greater Manchester, Merseyside, North Staffordshire and North East Wales, and there are flows of visitors from and to these areas. Many of the industries that operate in these areas are the same ones that are concentrated within Cheshire & Warrington. Hence there are common interests and challenges, and Cheshire & Warrington partner organisations need to tackle these in concert with neighbouring LEPs, other sub- regional partnerships like the Mersey Dee Alliance, Local Authorities and other public sector agencies.

Although businesses fare well in Cheshire & Warrington as a whole, there is a lack of an enterprise culture in the former District of Ellesmere Port & Neston (with business birth rates and densities well below the regional and national averages) and Crewe & Nantwich (slightly below the North West and UK averages). There is also a need to stimulate enterprise and economic activity in Cheshire & Warrington’s market towns and rural areas.

The next section of this chapter lists SWOT issues (Strengths, Weakness, Opportunities and Threats) that relate to enterprise, investment & innovation. Part 2 of the LEA contains more detailed evidence about these issues, including data to support the comments made above. Much of this evidence is within the Enterprise, Investment & Innovation Chapter (Chapter 6), though additional evidence can be found in Chapters 3 (Overall Economic Performance), 4 (Employment & the Labour Market), 8 (Commercial Land & Property), 12 (Economic Forecasts) and 13 (The Manchester City-Region).

The 2011 Cheshire & Warrington Business Needs Survey results, which were not available until after Part 2 was completed, are instead presented and interpreted in detail in Chapter 9 of this Part 1 report. For the Survey results that are of most relevance to enterprise, investment & innovation, see Sections 9.21 (Economic climate), 9.22 (Barriers to growth), 9.24 (Location) and 9.28 (External support and advice) of Chapter 9.

3.2 SWOT Issues for Cheshire & Warrington Enterprise, Investment & Innovation - Strengths For its population size, Cheshire & Warrington makes a relatively large economic contribution: it accounts for 12.9% of the NW region’s population, but 14.3% of its workforce, 15.7% of its businesses and 16.2% of its economic output (Gross Value Added, or GVA). [Data sources: nos 1,2, 3 & 4 in final table of this chapter.] A diverse economy that does not depend too heavily on the public sector. The Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals sector’s share of employment (even with its R&D activity excluded) is 2.7 times the GB average. Other major sectors with high local concentrations of activity include the manufacture of Motor Vehicles (also 2.7 times the GB average), Financial Intermediation (1.6) and R&D (2.7). The Nuclear sector has two key sites at Capenhurst (near Chester) and two others in the Warrington area. The Logistics sector has a strong presence, as do Creative Industries and Advanced (composite) Materials. There is also expertise in advanced engineering, notably in Crewe. Many of these key sectors are part of the so-called “Knowledge Economy” (high productivity/ high skill economic activities) and therefore contribute even more to GVA than to employment. [Sources: no. 2 & 5] Large manufacturing sector employers, including AstraZeneca, Bentley, British Nuclear Fuels, Shell and Vauxhall. Several large financial institutions also have major sites within the sub-region, including Bank of America, Barclays, Lloyds Banking Group, Marks & Spencer Financial Services and Royal London Mutual Insurance. [Source: no. 5] Cheshire & Warrington Econometric Model (CWEM) estimates suggest that recent GVA growth has been particularly strong in Cheshire East (3.7% a year during 1997-2007). This in turn probably reflects fast jobs growth in the former Crewe & Nantwich District. [Source: no. 3] High productivity and advantageous commuting flows, which are the main factors that account for Cheshire, Warrington & Halton having a high share of NW GVA. [Source: no. 6] MMU Crewe Campus includes the Institute of Education, which undertakes world-class research. In particular, the 2008 Research Assessment Exercise gave a 4* (top) rating to 20% of the Institute’s research. 10% of MMU art and design research also got a 4* rating. [Source: no. 7] Cheshire East residents have a high propensity to work for themselves: of those with a job, 15.6% are self-employed. This self-employment rate has been consistently above the NW and GB averages (currently 12.1% and 13.2%) since the 1990s. [Source: no. 8] Business birth rate (59 business births per 10,000 adults aged 16+, as at 2008) has remained significantly above the NW (50) and UK (54) for the last few years. Birth rate particularly high in Cheshire East (68). [Source: no. 4] Business density (511 active businesses per 10,000 adults aged 16+, as of the end of 2008) has stayed above the NW and UK averages (422 and 466 respectively) for the last few years. Macclesfield (730), Congleton (564), Chester (548) and Vale Royal (526) all have strong concentrations of entrepreneurial activity. [Source: no. 4] Business survival rates have improved over the last few years and exceed the regional and UK averages. The one-year survival rate is currently 96.0% (based on businesses which first came into existence in 2007), against 95.6% for the NW and 95.5% for the UK. Three- and five- year survival rates are also above the regional and UK averages. [Source: no. 4] Business Needs Survey results show that Cheshire & Warrington businesses rate their Local Authority area highly as a location. Most of them (60%) see its transport links as an advantage; the same is true of its attractiveness (59%) and its access to neighbouring markets/ cities (52%). [Source: no. 9] The same survey also shows that there is already a lot of collaborative activity, with two fifths of businesses (41%) having links to another organisation (such a local business network or an FE college). [Source: no. 9]

Enterprise, Investment & Innovation - Weaknesses GVA growth in Cheshire County (4.6% a year between 1995 and 2007) and Halton & Warrington (5.2%) has not kept pace with the UK (5.5%) or with the southern part of Greater Manchester (5.6%). [Source: no. 10] Significant net reduction in number of jobs in former Districts of Macclesfield (2.9% during 2006-8), Congleton (9.6% over the same two years) and Ellesmere Port & Neston (10.0% fall since 2003). [Source: no. 2] Sharp decline in Manufacturing sector employment base [Source: no. 11]. Some of the sub- region’s largest and best-known manufacturing employers have relocated or downsized in recent years: o 1,250 jobs cut at AstraZeneca since the start of 2007. o BAE Systems is closing its Woodford factory (just outside Cheshire & Warrington) in 2012 and shedding 180 jobs at Radway Green. o Bentley has announced 450 losses since mid 2008. o Bombardier’s Crewe works now employs less than 300 people (down from nearly 700 in Autumn 2008). o Ellesmere Port’s Bridgewater Paper Company went into administration in February 2010, with the loss of 250 jobs. o Vauxhall’s Ellesmere Port plant saw hundreds of job losses in 2005 and an even greater number of redundancies (879) in mid 2006. It came under renewed pressure in 2009. Also major job losses in other sectors since 2009. In particular, several large Financial Services sector companies have shed large numbers of jobs, including Barclays, Lloyds Banking Group and the Cheshire Building Society. Tesco’s Middlewich distribution centre closed in June 2010 and United Utilities is considering redundancies in the wake of new Ofwat guidelines. [Source: no. 11] Negative image of some towns, which deters some investors. Warrington residents are less inclined to run their own businesses than people living in many other areas: of those who had a job in 2009, only 10.2% were self-employed, compared to averages of 12.7% for Cheshire & Warrington and 13.2% for Great Britain. [Source: no. 8] Ellesmere Port & Neston fares much worse than the rest of Cheshire & Warrington, or other parts of the country, in terms of start-ups and business density. Its business birth rate (37 births per 10,000 adults aged 16+, as at 2008) is well below the NW and UK averages (50 and 54 respectively). The same is true of its business density (311 VAT-registered businesses per 10,000 adults aged 16+ as at the end of 2008, compared to a UK average of 466 and NW figure of 422). [Source: no. 4]

Crewe & Nantwich (birth rate of 49 and business density of 416) is also below the NW average, but only slightly so. [Source: no. 4] In Cheshire West & Chester, the one-year survival rate for businesses (95.2%) is slightly below the UK average. At District level, Chester and Congleton’s one-year survival rates perhaps give some cause for concern as well: they are also below the UK average and have recently fallen. [Source: no. 4]

Enterprise, Investment & Innovation - Opportunities Relatively strong economic recovery that is predicted (by the CWEM) for the two Cheshire Authorities. The CWEM forecasts suggest that, following the 2008-9 recession, Cheshire East’s GVA will grow by 1.9% in 2010, and Cheshire West & Chester’s by 1.8%. This compares favourably to the growth rates expected in the NW and UK (both under 1.5%). [Source: no. 3] Synergies (pooling of resources, acting in concert in regional/ national lobbying efforts, etc) from greater collaboration with neighbouring areas whose economies are linked to parts of Cheshire & Warrington, or who have common needs and interests. Key neighbours are Greater Manchester, Merseyside & Halton, NE Wales and North Staffordshire. There are also potential benefits from closer working with North Shropshire and North Derbyshire. Given the importance of its contribution to the NW economy (see “Strengths” box above), Cheshire & Warrington could and should be a major player in developing sub-national economic policies and strategies and influencing central government. Strong future growth in neighbouring economic centres to which Cheshire & Warrington is connected, most obviously Greater Manchester. This would particularly benefit businesses and residents of Cheshire East and Warrington (whose residents accounted for over 85% of the 76,600 travel-to-work journeys between Cheshire & Warrington and Greater Manchester in 2001). [Source: no. 12] Further development of the creative, digital and media sectors, which have grown strongly in South Manchester and the former Macclesfield District. In particular, the impact of MediaCityUK in Salford is likely to spill over into NE Cheshire. [Source: nos 2 & 13] Provision of fully-connected superfast broadband infrastructure. Superfast broadband can contribute to economic and business growth by enabling firms to operate more efficiently, to communicate and collaborate more easily with organisations or staff at other sites, to thrive in more remote/ rural locations, and to expand into new geographical markets. Opportunities arising from the strong GVA growth (more than 2.5% a year) expected (by the CWEM) in Pharmaceuticals (6.8% a year during 2007-20), Computing Services (4.7%), Communications (3.6%), Banking & Finance (3.3%) and Professional Services (2.7%). [Source: no. 3] Removal of barriers to business growth. Many of most commonly-cited barriers are not within local public sector bodies’ control, but “over-regulation/ red tape” (mentioned by 52% of those companies which responded to the 2011 Business Needs Survey) may be an exception. [Source: no. 9] Potential for more collaboration between the University of Chester, MMU and FE colleges on one hand and local businesses on the other. Opportunity for (more) collaboration between Jodrell Bank and other local firms/ public sector bodies on science projects. Growth potential of small businesses. Cheshire & Warrington has a high proportion of firms in the 0-4 employees band (78.8% in 2008, compared to 77.7% for the UK and 76.8% for the NW), with firms of this size being particularly prevalent in Cheshire East (79.5%). [Source: no. 4] Development of the sub-region’s market towns and the rural economy. Over a third of Cheshire’s population lives in rural areas, as do a sixth of Warrington’s residents. [Source: no. 14]

Enterprise, Investment & Innovation - Threats Weak economy and slow or zero jobs growth, at least in the short term. The 2011 Business Needs Survey found that only 33% of employers expected to recruit staff in the next 12 months. [Source: no. 9] A further decline in the fortunes of local Construction firms, who (according to the 2011 Business Needs Survey results) are relatively pessimistic (compared to other industries) about their short term prospects. [Source: no. 9] Relocation/ off-shoring of high tech sector activity (to reduce costs/ increase global competitiveness). Long-term downsizing in some large sectors. The CWEM predicts that employment in the Education sector will fall by 3,500 between 2010 and 2020, with the number of jobs in the Agriculture and Chemicals sectors also seeing a net decline of over 2,000. Chemicals is one of only two major sectors (along with Motor Vehicles) in which GVA is predicted to decline over the whole forecast period (2007-20). [Source: no. 3] Net reductions of at least 1,000 jobs are also forecast for the Motor Vehicles and Retailing sectors during 2010-20 (though in percentage terms, the contraction in Retailing is modest, at less than 0.5% a year). [Source: no. 3] A downturn in the fortunes of other neighbouring firms. Many of these are likely to employ Cheshire & Warrington residents, and many are likely to have linkages to Cheshire & Warrington-based firms. Firms in the Automotive, Chemicals, Pharmaceuticals, Distribution and Financial Services sectors have large sites both inside and just outside Cheshire & Warrington. [Source: no. 15] Weak growth in neighbouring economic centres to which Cheshire & Warrington is connected, most probably Stoke-on-Trent. (During 2005-7, Stoke-on-Trent’s GVA growth was lower than in any of Cheshire & Warrington’s neighbours apart from Wirral. Stoke’s weak performance is in line with longer-term trends.) This would impact most on Cheshire East (in 2001, 18,000 of the Authority’s travel-to-work journeys involved North Staffordshire). [Sources: nos 10 & 12] Strong growth of South Manchester economy and weak growth in Stoke leads to widening gap between the residents of NE Cheshire (many of whom work in high-skill jobs in Greater Manchester) and those living in the less affluent parts of SE Cheshire (which has economic ties to North Staffordshire). Difficulty in meeting businesses’ demand for external support and advice. The 2011 Business Needs Survey found that 33% of firms sought advice from Business Link and more than a tenth approached the NWDA. However, the latter is being abolished and the former’s activities are being scaled back as a result of spending cuts. [Source: no. 9] Risk of Ellesmere Port & Neston falling further behind the rest of the sub-region in terms of entrepreneurial activity. The former District’s business stock has grown more slowly (by 9.0% during 2004-8) than that of Warrington or any other former Cheshire District. [Source: no. 4]

Enterprise, Investment & Innovation – source details for SWOT issues [1] 2009 mid-year population estimates, ONS. Crown Copyright 2010. [2] Annual Business Inquiry (ABI) 1998-2008, ONS, NOMIS. Crown Copyright. [3] Baseline projections from the Cheshire & Warrington Econometric Model (CWEM). These data were obtained using Cambridge Econometrics/IER LEFM software and are consistent with Regional Economic Prospects, February 2010. [4] Business Demography – 2008: Enterprise Births, Deaths and Survivals, ONS, Nov 2009. [5] Cheshire & Warrington Local Authorities’ intelligence/ local knowledge. [6] “Regional economic indicators with a focus on differences in sub-regional economic performances”, Economic & Labour Market Review Vol. 4 No. 2. ONS, February 2010. [7] Research Assessment Exercise (RAE) website. [8] Annual Population Survey Jan-Dec 2004 to Jan-Dec 2009 and Local Area Labour Force Survey (1999/2000 – 2003/2004), ONS, NOMIS. Crown Copyright. [9] Cheshire and Warrington Business Needs Survey 2011, June 2011. Report by BMG Research on behalf of the Cheshire & Warrington Local Authorities and the Cheshire & Warrington Enterprise Commission. [10] NUTS3 GVA (1995-2007) Data, ONS, Dec 2009. [11] Intelligence – largely media reports – gathered by Cheshire East Council. [12] 2001 Census. Crown Copyright. [13] Manchester Independent Economic Review, 2009. [14] Figures for Cheshire Local Authorities: Rural Classification, 2004, Cheshire County Council, with 2008 rebased small area mid-year population estimates, Cheshire West & Chester Council. Figures for Warrington: Rural Definition and Local Authority Classification, 2009, DEFRA, with 2008 original (not rebased) small area mid-year population estimates, Cheshire West & Chester Council. Estimates are constrained to the Registrar General’s Annual Estimates of Population for 2008. ONS Crown Copyright 2010. [15] Cheshire & Warrington Enterprise Commission, Flintshire County Council, Halton Borough Council, Knowsley Metropolitan Borough Council, Liverpool City Council, Manchester’s Commission for the New Economy, Shropshire Council, Staffordshire County Council, Wirral Metropolitan Borough Council, Wrexham County Borough Council, June – September 2010.

4. Employment, Skills & Worklessness

4.1 Introduction Cheshire & Warrington’s labour market is one of its many strengths: its working-age residents have a high propensity to be economically active and a high propensity to be in employment (rather than unemployed). In terms of both its claimant unemployment rate and broader measures of unemployment, it compares very favourably to the North West and the rest of the country. Furthermore, a large proportion of residents have high level skills and qualifications: a third of the sub- region’s 16-64 year-old residents have a qualification at or above NVQ Level 4 (first degree level), which is considerably higher than the figures for the North West and Great Britain. Training and skills improvement opportunities are also available locally, with some of Cheshire & Warrington’s FE colleges being particularly highly regarded and some of the UK’s major universities being in close proximity.

Cheshire & Warrington as a whole is a net importer of labour, which implies that jobs are more abundant here than in most other parts of the UK. At a more local level, Warrington Borough and the former Districts of Chester, Crewe & Nantwich and Macclesfield also see large net inflows of labour. This suggests that Cheshire & Warrington’s largest towns, such as Chester, Crewe and Warrington, are relatively successful in providing employment and generating economic activity.

If Cheshire & Warrington is to realise its economic potential and improve the wellbeing of its residents, it has to provide employment opportunities for all those who are able and willing to work. As Part 2 of the LEA highlights, jobs are relatively scarce in some parts of the sub-region. More specifically, the former Districts of Congleton and Ellesmere Port & Neston (and to a lesser extent Vale Royal) have low job densities (with the number of jobs being less than the number of economically active residents). The latest economic forecasts from the Cheshire & Warrington Econometric Model (CWEM) suggest that the number of jobs in these former Districts could even fall slightly in the long term.

More locally still, there are areas with relatively high unemployment, with some parts of Crewe, Warrington and Ellesmere Port having a claimant unemployment rate of 6% or more. Worklessness (the state of being unemployed or economically inactive) is also a particular problem for certain demographic groups. 19-24 year-olds are much more likely to be claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance than are other age groups, and many 16-18 year-olds are NEET (Not in Education, Employment or Training). Many residents face particular barriers to work, such as low skills, lack of transport, poor health or disability, or lack of childcare provision. For older people and the long- term unemployed, it can also be relatively hard to find a job.

Some of Cheshire & Warrington’s major local industries, such as Motor Vehicles, Chemicals and Pharmaceuticals, have shed a large proportion of their workforce in recent years. This is partly due to long-term economic change, with businesses,

34 particularly in the more “traditional” industries, being under pressure to reduce costs by making redundancies or relocating their sites. The 2008-9 recession has exacerbated the situation, with jobs being lost across a wider range of industries, and the subsequent economic recovery remains fragile, with the CWEM forecasting minimal employment growth across the sub-region. Furthermore, worklessness contributes to wider social problems, including ill health and crime. Therefore worklessness is not just a challenge for deprived communities and particular demographic groups, but also for Cheshire & Warrington as a whole.

Cheshire & Warrington also faces some serious skills challenges. The 2011 Cheshire & Warrington Business Needs Survey found that a lack of relevant skills was the most common barrier to filling vacancies and, with higher-skill occupations forecast to become increasingly important over the next decade, there is a need to raise skills levels in general. The same survey also identifies particular skills that existing staff most commonly lack, namely sales and marketing, IT and customer care skills. Training provision therefore has to take account of employers’ specific skills needs.

A large proportion of the area’s best-qualified residents commute to jobs outside the sub-region and there is a need to provide these people – and new graduates who may be thinking of moving - with a greater incentive to stay in Cheshire & Warrington and contribute to its economy. By working locally, rather than commuting or migrating to another part of the country, these groups could raise skill levels and reduce skills gaps. However, this can only be achieved if additional high skill jobs are available at suitable sites, if quality of life remains high, if suitable and affordable housing is still provided in attractive locations, and if key services and wide-ranging cultural/ leisure facilities are accessible.

Skills levels are also a problem in some geographical areas, particularly the former Districts of Crewe & Nantwich and Ellesmere Port & Neston, which have a relatively low proportion of 16-64 year-old residents with degree level qualifications. As noted above, low skill levels preclude unemployed residents from many job opportunities and limit the contribution that employed residents can make to their workplace.

The next section of this chapter lists SWOT issues (Strengths, Weakness, Opportunities and Threats) that relate to employment, skills & worklessness. Part 2 of the LEA contains more detailed evidence about employment, skills and worklessness issues, including data to support the comments made above. Most of this evidence is within Chapters 3 (Overall Economic Performance), 4 (Employment & the Labour Market), 5 (Qualifications & Skills), 12 (Economic Forecasts) and 13 (The Manchester City-Region).

The 2011 Cheshire & Warrington Business Needs Survey results, which were not available until after Part 2 was completed, are instead presented and interpreted in detail in Chapter 9 of this Part 1 report. For the Survey results that are of most relevance to employment, skills & worklessness, see Section 9.23 (the Workforce section) of Chapter 9.

4.2 SWOT Issues for Cheshire & Warrington Employment, Skills & Worklessness - Strengths High degree of labour market engagement amongst local residents: economic activity rate for 16-64 year-olds (currently 77.7%) has been consistently above GB (now 76.7%) and NW (74.6%) in recent years. Local employment rates also compare favourably to the region and GB. [Data source: no. 1 in final table of this chapter.] Over the long-term, employment has grown relatively robustly (by 11.3% during 1998-2008, compared to 7.9% for NW and 9.7% for GB). Employment growth particularly strong in Crewe & Nantwich (over 50% during the same period and up 6% between 2006 and 2008). [Source: no. 2] Higher-level occupations make up a relatively high proportion of the jobs held by locally- employed workers and local residents. Among people working in Cheshire & Warrington, 31.8% hold managerial & professional posts, compared to only 29.4% in GB and 27.4% in the NW. Among the sub-region’s employed residents, the proportion is larger still (34.6%). [Sources: nos 1 & 3] Jobs density data for 2008 show that Cheshire & Warrington as a whole is a net importer of labour, which implies that jobs are more abundant in Cheshire & Warrington than in most other parts of the UK. All three Unitary Authorities are net importers of labour, with Warrington seeing the greatest net inflow. The former Districts of Chester, Crewe & Nantwich and Macclesfield are also large net recipients of labour. [Sources: nos 4 & 5] Low claimant unemployment rate (2.9% in July 2010) compared to NW (4.0%) and UK (3.6%). All three Unitary Authorities’ rates (ranging from 2.6% in Cheshire East to 3.3% in Warrington) are below the UK average. [Source: no. 6] Labour market linkages with several neighbouring areas, which lessens the impact of any one neighbour facing a large economic shock. There are more commuting flows to and from Greater Manchester (76,600) than any other neighbour, but the number involving Merseyside & Halton (62,400) is not that much smaller. There is also a substantial volume of journeys to or from NE Wales (28,000) and North Staffordshire (19,600). [Source: no. 7] Large supply of well-qualified labour within Cheshire & Warrington: by 2009, 33.3% of its 16- 64 year-old residents had a qualification at or above NVQ Level 4 (first degree level), which is considerably higher than the figures for the NW (27.0%) and GB (29.9%). In all three Unitary Authorities, this proportion is above the national average (varying from 30.9% in Warrington to 36.1% in Cheshire East). [Source: no. 1] Macclesfield District residents are particularly high-skilled: over 40% have a qualification at NVQ Level 4. This is partly because NE Cheshire is an attractive residential location for many people who hold high-skill jobs in neighbouring areas, particularly Greater Manchester. [Source: no. 1] Presence of the University of Chester (14,000 students), which has sites in both Chester and Warrington, and MMU (Manchester Metropolitan University) Crewe campus. [Source: no. 8] Proximity of sub-region to nearby universities (including Staffordshire, Glyndwr, Keele and the universities in Liverpool and Greater Manchester). [Source: no. 9] Presence of Reaseheath, a specialist agricultural, horticultural and animal management FE/HE college of national renown. [Source: no. 9] Cheshire & Warrington’s other FE colleges, namely Macclesfield, Mid Cheshire, South Cheshire, West Cheshire and Warrington Collegiate. [Source: no. 9]

Employment, Skills & Worklessness - Weaknesses Long-term decline of Manufacturing sector. Its share of the Cheshire & Warrington employment total has fallen from 18.5% to 10.7% since 1998, though in Cheshire East its share (13.5%) remains clearly above the regional and national averages. Employment in the Motor Vehicles manufacturing sector fell 31.6% during 1998-2008. Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals employment (including science-related R&D) fell 33.7% over the same period. [Source: no. 2] For people working full-time in Cheshire & Warrington, median earnings (£469 in 2009) are now below the UK average (£489). At a more local level, full-timers’ median earnings are more than 10% below the UK average in the former Districts of Congleton and Crewe & Nantwich. In Cheshire & Warrington as a whole, earnings growth has not kept pace with the NW and UK and District-level earnings data suggest this could in part reflect the recent loss of high- productivity jobs at major Manufacturing sector employers. [Source: no. 10] There is a relative shortage of jobs available with the former Districts of Congleton and Ellesmere Port & Neston (and to a lesser extent Vale Royal) – as jobs density data show – and these areas consequently see a large net outflow of labour. [Sources: nos 4 & 5] Claimant unemployment rate is above the UK average in Ellesmere Port APB (3.9% in July 2010) and Crewe LAP (4.0%). More locally still, unemployment rates are 6% or more in some parts of Crewe, Warrington and Ellesmere Port. [Source: no. 6] Worklessness is a particularly acute problem for young people. In July 2010, the claimant unemployment rate for Cheshire & Warrington’s 19-24 year-olds (6.4%) was considerably higher than for other age groups, though still lower than in the NW (7.8%) or the UK (7.0%). The proportion of young people who are NEET (Not in Education, Training or Employment) is particularly high in Crewe LAP (9.9% in June 2010), in Warrington (7.0%) and the APB areas of Chester (7.3%), Ellesmere Port (7.5%) and Winsford & Rural East (7.6%). [Source: nos 6 & 11] Some areas have a shortage of residents with degree-level qualifications: only 23.8% of Ellesmere Port & Neston’s and 26.7% of Crewe & Nantwich’s 16-64 year-olds hold a qualification at or above this level, which is below the averages for the NW (27.0%) and GB (29.9%). [Source: no. 1] Compared to England as a whole, Ellesmere Port & Neston has a relatively large proportion of neighbourhoods with education and skills deprivation. More specifically, 33% of its Lower Layer Super Output Areas (LLSOAs) are in the top (most deprived) 20% of the 2007 English Indices of Deprivation’s Education, Skills & Training domain. Crewe & Nantwich also has an above average proportion (23%) of LLSOAs in this domain. [Source: no. 12] Large proportion of Cheshire East’s best–qualified residents commute to jobs outside the Authority, and therefore make a smaller contribution to the Cheshire East economy than they might. For example, 2001 Census data show that, of those Macclesfield District residents who were employed in professional and managerial occupations, nearly 40% worked in Greater Manchester. [Source: no. 7] Limited HE provision outside Chester (4,100 students based at MMU’s Crewe and Alsager campuses in 2008/09). This means that many high-achieving Year 13 students leave to take up HE places elsewhere and may not necessarily return after graduating. [Source: no. 8]

Employment, Skills & Worklessness - Opportunities The Cheshire & Warrington Econometric Model (CWEM) forecasts for 2010-20 point to post- recession jobs growth in the former Districts of Chester (0.3% a year) and Macclesfield (also 0.3%). [Source: no. 13] Opportunities arising from the substantial employment growth (more than 1,000 jobs) expected (by the CWEM) in Hotels & Catering (up 5,100 between 2010 and 2020), Professional Services (up 3,200), Banking & Finance (2,600), Computing Services (2,400), Construction (2,200), Health & Social Work (1,600), Pharmaceuticals (1,200) and Other Business Services (1,100). [Source: no. 13] New developments which could create hundreds of jobs if they proceed (such as the prospective new Sainsbury’s in Crewe). [Source: no. 14] Continued long-term growth (according to the CWEM) in the number of managerial, professional, personal service and sales/ customer service jobs. [Source: no. 13] Ensuring that local working-age residents have the skills that businesses need. According to the 2011 Business Needs Survey, vacancies are most likely to be hard to fill because of applicants having a lack of relevant skills (cited by 63% of those Cheshire & Warrington firms with hard-to-fill posts). [Source: no. 15] Ensuring that existing staff have the skills that their employer needs. Of those firms which took part in the 2011 Business Needs Survey, 34% mentioned sales and marketing skills as an area in which staff skills needed to be improved, whilst at least a quarter identified customer care (25%) and IT skills (28%) as a skills gap. [Source: no. 15] Potential expansion of MMU Crewe campus (as part of redevelopment of the town), which could mean more students and therefore a larger pool of local, well-qualified labour. The MMU intends to invest in a university village (at its Crewe campus). [Source: no. 9] Development of links with nearby universities (including Glyndwr, Keele, Staffordshire and the universities in Liverpool and Manchester).

Employment, Skills & Worklessness - Threats According to the CWEM, the recession and its aftermath could have a particularly adverse impact on employment in Congleton and Macclesfield. For 2007-10, it predicts average annual falls in employment of more than 1% for these two former Districts. [Source: no. 13] Lack of long-term employment growth in the sub-region. The CWEM predicts average growth of just 0.1% a year during 2010-20 (compared to 0.3% a year for the UK). The CWEM forecasts also suggest that the number of jobs in Congleton, Ellesmere Port & Neston and Vale Royal could continue to fall (though only slightly), even in the longer term. [Source: no. 13] Job creation schemes are largely in retail and other low value-added sectors, and therefore contribute less to GVA growth, productivity growth and the efforts to improve the skills of local residents and employees. At present, the largest recently-announced schemes involve retail sector businesses (M&S, Sainsbury’s and Tesco). [Source: no. 14] Increased outward commuting of the sub-region’s more highly-skilled residents. Evidence shows that people in higher-level occupations are willing to commute further than less-skilled employees. [Sources: nos 1 & 7] Continued long-term decline (according to the CWEM) in the number of administrative/ clerical jobs, skilled trade occupations and low-skill employment. Hence many of the people who currently undertake these types of work will need to develop the skills required for other occupations. [Source: no. 13] Low graduate retention rate, with new graduates moving away from Cheshire & Warrington because of more attractive job prospects elsewhere. Similar risk of losing the skills that FE students acquire.

Employment, Skills & Worklessness – source details for SWOT issues [1] Annual Population Survey (residence-based data), Jan-Dec 2009. Crown Copyright. [2] Annual Business Inquiry (ABI) 1998-2008, ONS, NOMIS. Crown Copyright. [3] Annual Population Survey Workplace Analysis, Jan-Dec 2009. Crown Copyright. [4] Jobs density data, ONS, NOMIS. Crown Copyright. [5] Annual Population Survey (residence-based data), Jan-Dec 2008. Crown Copyright. [6] Claimant Count, ONS, NOMIS. Crown Copyright. [7] 2001 Census. Crown Copyright. [8] University of Chester and MMU. [9] Cheshire & Warrington Local Authorities’ intelligence/ local knowledge. [10] Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE), 2006-2009, ONS. [11] Connexions Cheshire & Warrington, July 2010. [12] English Indices of Deprivation 2007, DCLG, Dec 2007. [13] Baseline projections from the Cheshire & Warrington Econometric Model (CWEM). These data were obtained using Cambridge Econometrics/IER LEFM software and are consistent with Regional Economic Prospects, February 2010. [14] Intelligence – largely media reports – gathered by Cheshire East Council. [15] Cheshire and Warrington Business Needs Survey 2011, June 2011. Report by BMG Research on behalf of the Cheshire & Warrington Local Authorities and the Cheshire & Warrington Enterprise Commission.

5. Commercial Land & Property

5.1 Introduction Many of Cheshire & Warrington’s towns and cities are important, vibrant economic centres and they play a key role in the commercial property market. Chester is a popular retail destination for many residents of the North West, West Midlands and Wales, and its retail rents reflect this position. Both it and Warrington are leading locations for the office property market. Warrington and Crewe are the sub-region’s premier locations for industrial and distribution units, with Middlewich and Sandbach growing in importance.

Cheshire & Warrington contains a number of major employment sites, including the regionally significant sites of Alderley Park (near Alderley Edge), Basford East/ Basford West (in Crewe), Omega (Warrington), Central Warrington and Central Chester. It also has thirteen locations – covering Chester, Crewe, Ellesmere Port, Handforth, Middlewich, Northwich, Warrington and Winsford - which were identified as key opportunities by the 2009 Cheshire & Warrington Sub-Regional Employment Land & Sites Study. The same study also identified additional sites that have future potential.

However, in some geographical areas there is a mismatch between the demand for and supply of commercial land and property. At some sites, vacancy rates are high, whilst in others there is a lack of suitable and immediately available employment land and premises.

Major regeneration opportunities also exist in some parts of the sub-region, particularly in its towns and cities. Many of these potential schemes are in Crewe and Warrington, but others involve Chester, Ellesmere Port and Macclesfield. Another opportunity is to develop the Weaver Valley/ Weaver Towns (Middlewich, Northwich and Winsford and their rural hinterland). Market towns, villages and the rural economy are another potential point of focus for regeneration activity.

The next section of this chapter lists SWOT issues (Strengths, Weakness, Opportunities and Threats) that relate to commercial land and property. Part 2 of the LEA contains more detailed evidence about employment sites, regeneration schemes and other commercial land and property issues, including data to support the comments made above. Most of this evidence is within Chapter 8 (Commercial Land & Property).

However, the 2011 Cheshire & Warrington Business Needs Survey results, which were not available until after Part 2 was completed, are instead presented and interpreted in detail in Chapter 9 of this Part 1 report. For the Survey results that are of most relevance to Commercial Land & Property, see Section 9.25 (the Relocation section) of Chapter 9.

5.2 SWOT Issues for Cheshire & Warrington Commercial Land & Property - Strengths The strategically important sites of Alderley Park (near Alderley Edge), Basford East/ Basford West (Crewe), Omega (Warrington), Central Chester and Central Warrington. [Data source: no. 1 in final table of this chapter.] Other major sites in Cheshire, which include Chester Business Park, Chester West Employment Park, Crewe Business Park, Crewe Gates Industrial Estate, Gadbrook Park (Northwich), Hurdsfield Industrial Estate (Macclesfield), Midpoint 18 (Middlewich), Rossmore Industrial Estate (Ellesmere Port), Sealand Road Industrial Estate (Chester), Stanley Green Industrial Estate (Handforth) and Winsford Industrial Estate. [Source: no. 2] Other major sites in Warrington, which include Birchwood Business Park, Gemini Business Park, Parkside (of which only a small part is in Warrington), Winwick Quay Business Park and Woolston Grange. [Source: no. 1] Warrington and Crewe, which are the sub-region’s premier locations for industrial and distribution units (and Crewe is becoming more significant in the market for office property). However, Middlewich and Sandbach are becoming increasingly popular locations for industrial and distribution sector activity. [Source: no. 1] Chester and Warrington, which are the office property market’s leading locations (within Cheshire & Warrington). [Source: no. 1] Crewe, Northwich and Wilmslow may be becoming more attractive as retail centres. During 2003-9, prime in-town retail rents grew more strongly in the three towns (by around 20% in each town) than in other nearby centres. [Source: no. 3] Retail rents are higher in Chester (£195 per square foot in 2009) than in Warrington (£100psf) or key centres outside the sub-region, such as Shrewsbury and Wrexham. In part this probably reflects the strength of its retail offer: the city is a national and international tourist destination. [Source: no. 3]

Commercial Land & Property - Weaknesses High vacancy rates at some employment sites, which implies a mismatch between demand and supply in some parts of the sub-region. It may that the quality of available land and premises does not match the quality demanded. [Source: no. 4] A lack of suitable and immediately available employment land and premises in some parts of the sub-region. [Source: no. 5] Industrial and warehouse land values in Cheshire East and Warrington have fallen below the NW average since 2001 (comparable data were not available for Cheshire West & Chester). This could reflect a relative abundance of land in the local area, but it may be that parts of Cheshire & Warrington are now seen as a less attractive location for industrial and distribution activity. [Source: no. 6] Retail activity in Warrington and Ellesmere Port may have been particularly hard hit by the recent recession. Prime in-town retail rents fell substantially in both towns (by 31% and 20% respectively) between 2008 and 2009, whereas other local towns saw falls of around 10% or less. (However, these data exclude rents at out-of-town sites, such as Cheshire Oaks.) [Source: no. 3] Negative image that some visitors, investors and businesses have of Crewe and Ellesmere Port, which may account in part for the relatively low retail rents in the centre of the two towns. [Source: no. 3]

Commercial Land & Property - Opportunities Development of major employment sites. This could include some of the thirteen sites identified in the 2009 Cheshire & Warrington Employment Land & Sites Study: Capenhurst (near Chester), the Countess of Chester Hospital, Crewe Rail Gateway, Crewe town centre, Crewe Business Park and the area east of Quakers Coppice, the 61MU site (Handforth), Midpoint 18 (Middlewich), Lostock Triangle (Northwich), Cheshire Oaks (Ellesmere Port), Pioneer Park (Ellesmere Port), Birchwood Park (Warrington), Woolston Grange (Warrington) and South Bostock Road (Winsford). [Source: no. 4] Potential for developing specific sites for high-tech businesses, so there is more opportunity for them to collaborate and innovate. Crewe, for example, has a lot of small knowledge-intensive firms, but they are currently spread across the town. [Source: no. 7] Major regeneration schemes in Crewe [Source: no. 1]: o Development of Basford East and West (which at present has very little development on it and is mainly fields). Amongst other things, this presents an opportunity for large- scale job creation and for residents of deprived areas of Crewe to gain better access to employment. o Improvements to Crewe Station. o Crewe Green Link Road Southern Section (see Transport & the Environment “Opportunities” box for more detail). o Other parts of the Crewe Gateway University Quadrant programme, the redevelopment of Crewe town centre and the regeneration of the West End of Crewe. Potential developments in Warrington. These include the development of major sites in the town centre (Bridge St Area, Central Hub/ Wire works, Bank Park and Warrington Waterfront) and of Omega. The first phases of Omega have detailed planning permission for a mix of office and distribution uses. The remainder is earmarked for a mix of employment uses, but consideration is being given to a wider mix of uses, in the interests of sustainability and deliverability. [Source: no. 1] Other current sub-regional regeneration opportunities [Source: no. 1]: o Chester city centre: development of the Central Business Quarter and Northgate. o Ellesmere Port Regeneration schemes. o Macclesfield Town and South Macclesfield Development site. o Weaver Valley and Weaver Towns (Middlewich, Northwich and Winsford). o Rural economy, including smaller market towns and settlements. Re-use of other previously-developed land. Crewe has additional land that could perhaps be turned into employment sites. [Source: no. 7]

Commercial Land & Property - Threats Basford East site may take a long time to generate jobs, because employment land take-up has been low in Crewe, and because of competition from other sites both within Cheshire East and outside it (e.g. Omega in Warrington). Insufficient funding available to finance the improvement of Crewe Station. Insufficient funding available to finance the Crewe Green Link Road Southern Section. This is necessary if Basford is to achieve its full potential. However, funding is in doubt, particularly following the recession and the change of government in 2010. Many businesses – most commonly those in the light industry, construction and transport sectors - have recently relocated from Crewe to Stoke. There is a risk of this trend continuing. [Source: no. 8]

Commercial Land & Property – source details for SWOT issues [1] Cheshire & Warrington Local Authorities’ intelligence/ local knowledge. [2] Interdepartmental Business Register (IDBR) 2005 for Cheshire & Warrington, ONS (with additional data preparation and aggregation by the former Cheshire County Council). [3] Colliers CRE (now Colliers International), 2010. [4] Cheshire & Warrington Sub-Regional Employment Land & Sites Study, June 2009. Produced by GVA Grimley on behalf of the Cheshire & Warrington Economic Alliance (now CWEC) and the Northwest Regional Development Agency. [5] Macclesfield Property Study, Nov 2005. [6] Valuation Office Agency Property Market Reports for 2001-3 (Autumn) and 2004-9 (July). [7] The Crewe Visioning Process: Draft Report 1 – Data and Evidence for the Visioning Process, SQW Consulting, Dec 2009. Produced for Cheshire East Council and the Cheshire & Warrington Economic Alliance. [8] “Economic Assessment of the Crewe Gateway – The University Quadrant – Crewe”, DTZ, 2008.

6. Transport & the Environment

6.1 Introduction Cheshire & Warrington’s greatest assets include its transport network, its accessibility and its general attractiveness as a location. These strengths were, perhaps not that surprisingly, the ones that employers most commonly cited in the 2011 Cheshire & Warrington Business Needs Survey.

More specifically, the area contains an extensive motorway network which includes the M6, M53, M56 and M62. There are direct train services to London from key towns and cities such as Chester, Crewe, Macclesfield, Warrington and Wilmslow. Chester, Crewe and Warrington all benefit from good rail connections, both to each other and to Greater Manchester, Merseyside and northeast Wales. Manchester and Liverpool John Lennon airports are also relatively close.

As for the local environment, Cheshire & Warrington has an attractive network of green space and waterways, and includes a large part of the Peak District. Quality of life is also generally high.

Many high-skilled people choose to live in the sub-region and the area receives large numbers of visitors. The number of local businesses is also high in relation to the size of the local resident population. These facts demonstrate that residents, businesses and visitors all rate Cheshire & Warrington highly as an attractive and accessible location.

These strengths need to be preserved as the local economy recovers, grows and develops. As Part 2 of the LEA indicates, Cheshire & Warrington’s employment level has grown robustly over the long term, and strong future GVA (economic output) growth is forecast in some key sectors, such as Pharmaceuticals and Computing Services. It is important that future economic growth is sustainable and does not come at the cost of large increases in carbon emissions, more traffic congestion, deteriorating transport infrastructure and irreversible climate change.

As Part 2 also notes, Cheshire & Warrington is already affected by some of these symptoms of unsustainable growth. Its CO2 emissions per head are above the national and regional averages. Congestion is another problem: at peak times, it affects the M6, M56, A500 Barthomley link (from the M6 into Crewe), A534 (Nantwich Road/ train station in Crewe) and A556 in Cheshire East; the M53, M56, A49 and A55 in Cheshire West & Chester; and the A49, A50, A56 and A5061 in Warrington. Also affected are Chester, Congleton, Knutsford, Macclesfield, Northwich and Warrington town centres, parts of Disley and some of the major routes in and out of Crewe. This is in part due to Cheshire & Warrington residents having a high propensity to use cars for commuting journeys. This itself partly reflects the inadequacies of public transport provision in the area, with congested rail networks, peak hour overcrowding on trains, limited rail networks in southern

Cheshire, few bus services operating between Cheshire & Warrington towns and low satisfaction levels with Cheshire (but not Warrington) buses.

Other factors, such as the area’s industrial composition, also account in part for these high emissions levels, and this is partly why emissions per capita are particularly high in the former Districts of Ellesmere Port & Neston and Vale Royal. Freight journeys also have an impact on emissions: the majority of freight is currently transported by road, but there may be opportunities for more to be carried by rail or waterways, with lower direct emissions.

There are some successful initiatives already in place, such as Chester’s Park and Ride, and others are under way (such as the development and promotion of cycle routes in Chester, Warrington and the Crewe/ Nantwich area), but more needs to be done. For example, as the 2011 Cheshire & Warrington Business Needs Survey results show, a quarter of local businesses have yet to undertake any actions to improve their environmental performance. Achieving both economic growth and environmental sustainability is therefore a major challenge for Cheshire & Warrington. More generally, there is an opportunity to promote workplace travel plans (which only 10% of Business Needs Survey respondents had) and personalised journey planning, so that people travel to work, training and leisure destinations in a more sustainable way.

Cheshire & Warrington households and employers could perhaps also make more use of sustainable energy sources for transport networks and travel: electric cars and electrified rail lines, for example. Given the sub-region’s advanced engineering expertise, there is also potential for Cheshire & Warrington to play a role in developing renewable or less resource-intensive forms of energy.

New technologies can also reduce the need to travel at all. In particular, superfast broadband (discussed in detail in the next chapter) can make it easier for people to work from home, and to hold videoconferences. It could therefore help to reduce the number of journeys to workplaces and meetings. Similarly, by making it easier for people to buy goods and access services online, it can reduce the need for households to travel to shops and other facilities by car.

However, it is difficult to consider the topic of sustainability in isolation as it is a crosscutting issue that should run through all future economic decision making: from ensuring new housing is built to high environmental standards, to improving public transport provision, to ensuring energy efficiency and security of energy supply. Not only is there a need to help all businesses to reduce their resource use and save money, but also to help businesses in the environment and energy sector grow and expand, thereby increasing GVA and generating new jobs.

There is also considerable scope for further improving Cheshire & Warrington’s transport network and making it more accessible. More specifically, there are potential future projects which would help to make Cheshire & Warrington’s transport network, particularly its public transport network, more attractive and more joined up.

These include improvements to Crewe Station, the development of a new transport interchange for Crewe and the opportunity for a new station at Chapelford, Warrington. By improving public transport, such schemes should also encourage people to travel in a more environmentally sustainable way. Other possibilities, in the medium or long term, are the Manchester/ Northern Hub rail project, the reopening of the Middlewich railway line and a tram-train service on the Chester-Manchester line. The Halton Curve is another important scheme in the medium to long term: it would improve rail links between north Cheshire/ northeast Wales and southern Merseyside/ Liverpool John Lennon.

Proposals for a second High Speed rail line (HS2) are also progressing and this represents another medium to long term opportunity. The first phase of the proposed line runs from London to Birmingham. Further phases include spurs to Manchester, Leeds and Heathrow, and there may be longer term plans to connect Edinburgh and Glasgow. Specific routes for these further phases are still in development. However, given the topography and prevalence of existing strategic transport corridors in Cheshire East and the pre-eminent destination as Manchester, it is highly likely that any new line would pass through the Borough. This may give rise to opportunities for intermediate stations on this line. HS2 would also release capacity on the congested West Coast Main Line and provide opportunities for improving services on this line.

Another scheme with significant potential is the Crewe Green Link Road Southern Section, which would not only reduce congestion in Crewe and improve journey time reliability, but also open up development land and improve access to employment from deprived areas of the town. However, Crewe Green Link Road and other major transport improvement schemes are dependent on public funding and therefore their prospects are uncertain.

The next section of this chapter lists SWOT issues (Strengths, Weakness, Opportunities and Threats) that relate to transport and environmental issues. Part 2 of the LEA contains more detailed evidence about these issues, including data to support the comments made above. Most of this evidence is within Chapter 11 (the Transport & the Environment Chapter).

The 2011 Cheshire & Warrington Business Needs Survey results, which were not available until after Part 2 was completed, are instead presented and interpreted in detail in Chapter 9 of this Part 1 report. For the Survey results that are of most relevance to transport and environmental issues, see Sections 9.24 (Location) and 9.27 (The environment) of Chapter 9.

6.2 SWOT Issues for Cheshire & Warrington Transport & the Environment – Strengths Some strong transport links, which make Cheshire & Warrington accessible and therefore an attractive location for residents, visitors and businesses. [Data source: no. 1 in final table of this chapter.] Key assets are: o M6, M53, M56 and M62 motorways o Strategically important railway stations. These include Crewe, which is at the junction of six main rail lines. Also of importance are Warrington Bank Quay and Warrington Central (which provide access to the West Coast Main Line and Transpennine services). Warrington has the advantage of lying at the crossroads of the east-west and north-south rail links. Other major assets are Chester (which has the largest footfall of any Cheshire & Warrington station), Macclesfield and Wilmslow; all three have a direct service to London (as do Warrington Bank Quay and Crewe). o The good rail connections that Chester, Crewe and Warrington have to each other, and to Greater Manchester, Merseyside and NE Wales. o The connection of many north Cheshire villages to the rail network. o Proximity to Manchester Airport and Liverpool John Lennon Airport.

Bus service provision within Cheshire & Warrington’s larger urban centres, namely Chester, Crewe, Ellesmere Port, Macclesfield and Warrington. [Sources: nos 1 & 2] Public transport services from deprived (generally urban) areas to employment sites. [Source: no. 1] Satisfaction of Warrington residents with bus services and the provision of local transport information (which may in part account for recent growth in local bus patronage and railway station footfall). 57% of the town’s adults are satisfied with local bus services, which is above the England average. [Source: no. 3] Chester’s park and ride system, under which inward travellers alleviate congestion problems by parking on the city’s outskirts and travelling into the centre by bus. [Source: no. 1] Strong growth in rail patronage at some major stations, such as Warrington and Macclesfield. Footfall at Warrington’s six stations grew by 34% between 2004/5 and 2008/9, whilst Macclesfield Station’s footfall increased by 59%. [Source: no. 4]

Transport & the Environment – Weaknesses Commuters living in Cheshire & Warrington are more likely to drive to work (65% did so in 2001) than those living in the NW (58%) or England & Wales (55%). [Source: no. 5] Relatively high peak time congestion levels along some strategic networks: the M6 (Junctions 16-19), M56, A500 Barthomley link (from the M6 Junction 16 into Crewe) and A556 in Cheshire East; the M53, M56, A49 and A55 in Cheshire West & Chester; and the A49, A50, A56 and A5061 in Warrington. [Source: no. 1] Congestion also a problem at peak time on some local networks. These include Chester, Congleton, Knutsford, Macclesfield, Northwich and Warrington town centres. Also affected are sections of the A6 around Disley and routes in and out of Crewe, including the railway station/A534 (Nantwich Road), the A500 Barthomley Link to the M6 and Crewe Green Roundabout. According to the 2011 Business Needs Survey, businesses see congestion as one of the main disadvantages of operating in Cheshire & Warrington (though less than one in ten mention it). [Sources: nos 1 & 6] Road traffic has resulted in poor air quality in some locations within Chester, Congleton, Crewe, Ellesmere Port, Nantwich and Warrington. [Sources: nos 1 & 2] Some parts of Cheshire’s road network are in poor condition (due to traffic volumes and adverse weather). [Source: no. 1] Road network (particularly East-West routes) is more limited in central and southern Cheshire than elsewhere in the sub-region. These limitations also affect parts of the former Macclesfield District (in NE Cheshire). [Source: no. 1] Inter-urban bus services: Cheshire & Warrington has few services that run between its towns. [Sources: nos 1 & 2] Dissatisfaction of Cheshire residents with bus services (only 42% satisfied in Cheshire East and 46% in Cheshire West & Chester) and the provision of local transport information. This may adversely affect levels of bus and rail patronage. [Source: no. 3] Middlewich lacks a train station, making it less accessible by public transport. The vast majority of south Cheshire’s villages and rural areas also lack train stations. [Source: no. 1] Peak time overcrowding on some train services, such as those between the main towns in Cheshire & Warrington and Greater Manchester. [Source: no. 1] Liverpool and Manchester airports not as accessible by public transport as they could be. [Source: no. 1] Different ticketing policies and arrangements used by different public transport operators, Local Authorities and Integrated Transport Authorities, making it less attractive for people to make longer journeys by public transport. [Source: no. 1]

According to the latest (2007) data, CO2 emissions per capita are above the UK and NW averages (both 8.4 tonnes) in all three Cheshire & Warrington Authorities. Cheshire East and Warrington both emit 10.3 tonnes per capita, but the figure for Cheshire West & Chester (17.1) is particularly high. Both Ellesmere Port & Neston and Vale Royal emit more tonnes of CO2 per capita (27.1 and 16.7 tonnes respectively) than the Cheshire & Warrington sub- region (12.8). This is partly a consequence of the industrial composition of these Districts. [Source: no. 7]

Between 2005 and 2007, total CO2 emissions grew in Cheshire & Warrington (by 1.4%), in contrast to the CO2 reductions seen in the NW (3.3%) and UK (1.8%). [Source: no. 7] Domestic emissions are particularly high in the former Macclesfield District, at 2.9 tonnes per capita. [Source: no. 7]

Transport & the Environment – Opportunities The Crewe Green Link Road scheme, which would reduce congestion in Crewe, improve journey time reliability, open up development land and improve access to employment from deprived areas of the town. [Source: no. 1] SEMMMS major road scheme, which would make the motorway network more accessible from Macclesfield and eastern Cheshire. [Source: no. 1] Significant investment made by Chester West & Chester Council (over and above the Local Transport Plan allocation) to tackle its maintenance backlog and improve the overall condition of the Borough’s highway network. [Source: no. 1] Improvements to Crewe Station and the development of a new transport interchange in the town. [Source: no. 1] Manchester/ Northern Hub project, which presents an opportunity to improve rail access to Manchester Airport, and the Halton Curve, which would improve rail links from north Cheshire/ NE Wales to southern Merseyside/ Liverpool John Lennon Airport. [Source: no. 1] Potential improvement and increase in rail capacity resulting from a number of medium or long term projects: the HS2 rail spur from Birmingham to Manchester, the Manchester/ Northern Hub project, the possibility of a new station at Chapelford (Warrington), the possibility of reopening the Middlewich railway line or even of running a tram-train service on the Chester to Manchester line (from Altrincham into Northwich via Knutsford). [Source: no. 1] Greater use of sustainable energy sources for transport networks and travel: electric cars and electrified rail lines, for example. Potential lines for electrification include the Crewe-Chester route. The possible extension of Greater Manchester’s tram-train system from Altrincham into Northwich (see last bullet point) would also help in this regard. [Source: no. 1] All Cheshire & Warrington Authorities are making bids for funding from the DfT’s Local Sustainable Transport Fund (LSTF). Successful bids could result in significant investment in new projects to help enhance sustainable travel to and from employment sites, training sites, train stations and other journey destinations. [Source: no. 1] Introduction of more park and ride schemes in Cheshire & Warrington towns, for example in Warrington and Macclesfield. Projects underway in Chester, the Crewe/ Nantwich area and Warrington (including Chester’s Cycle Demonstration Town status, the Crewe-Nantwich Greenway scheme and the Connect 2 funding secured for Cheshire), which provide an opportunity to develop cycling routes and encourage people to cycle. Also potential for developing further cycling schemes in Crewe. [Sources: nos 1 & 2] Encouraging and supporting businesses in making more environmental improvements. 25% of Cheshire & Warrington companies have not yet taken any action to improve their environmental performance. As for sustainable travel, only one in ten (10%) have a travel plan and fewer than one in seven (13%) use environmentally sustainable vehicles. [Source: no. 6] Other schemes, projects and technologies which encourage environmentally sustainable travel (car-sharing, walking, cycling and public transport) or reduce the need to travel at all (e.g. superfast broadband, which can make home-working and videoconferencing more viable). Greater use of waterways (such as Manchester Ship Canal) and rail (e.g. the Middlewich freight line and the Basford sites), for freight journeys. This could relieve the pressure on road networks and reduce direct CO2 emissions. [Source: no. 1] Development of the green economy and green technology. There may be greater potential for this in Cheshire East than in many other Authorities, given the local concentration of transport- related business activity (rail and vehicle manufacture) and the opportunity for local firms’ advanced engineering skills to be applied to the development of renewable energy schemes. [Source: no. 1]

Transport & the Environment – Threats Limitations of east-west transport links in the central and southern part of Cheshire: no motorways (apart from M6) or rail stations. This may constrain growth and inward investment. [Source: no. 1] Insufficient funds to address maintenance backlog on Cheshire & Warrington’s road network, meaning that parts of the network remain in poor condition, and others deteriorate. [Source: no. 1] In recent decades, there has been an increasing tendency for people to use cars for both business and social travel [Source: no. 5]. This trend is likely to continue in the absence of further policy intervention: o By 2001, 38% of Cheshire & Warrington households had 2 or more cars (up from 21% in 1981) and this proportion is particularly high in Cheshire East (40%). o Sharp increase (between 1981 and 2001) in the proportion of commuters who drive and sharp decrease in the proportion who walk, cycle, use public transport or car-share. For example, 48% drove to work in 1981, but 65% did so by 2001. Traffic volumes, which (because of high levels of car dependency) are likely to grow as the economy recovers. [Source: no. 8] Further cuts in bus service provision, making many places less accessible by public transport. Reduced investment in the rail network and local train stations. Reduced funding for sustainable transport schemes, such as the Plugged-In Places project (which provides a network of recharging points for electric vehicles). Long-term risk that Cheshire & Warrington will struggle to secure future funding for major transport improvement schemes. Cheshire West & Chester and Warrington currently do not have any major scheme proposals which could be developed into bids if and when future funding opportunities emerge. [Source: no. 1]

Transport & the Environment – source details for SWOT issues [1] Cheshire & Warrington Local Authorities, particularly the Authorities’ Local Transport Plan (LTP) teams. [2] Cheshire West & Chester Integrated Transport Strategy: Summary of Baseline Report, Cheshire West & Chester Council, June 2009. [3] Place Survey 2008. [4] Station usage data, Office of Rail Regulation website, 12/8/10. [5] 2001 Census. Crown Copyright. [6] Cheshire and Warrington Business Needs Survey 2011, June 2011. Report by BMG Research on behalf of the Cheshire & Warrington Local Authorities and the Cheshire & Warrington Enterprise Commission.

[7] (a) “Local and Regional CO2 Emissions Estimates for 2005-2007”, produced by AEA Energy & Environment for DECC, 2009. Revised (Nov 2009) version. (b) ONS mid-year population estimates for 2005-7. Crown Copyright. [8] TEMPRO data (obtained via Cheshire West & Chester Council LTP team, in Aug 2010).

7. Broadband & IT

7.1 Introduction New IT technologies have a major contribution to make to Cheshire & Warrington’s economy and society. In particular, superfast broadband – the combination of infrastructure and technology that delivers very high speed broadband access - presents a key opportunity. The economic advantages are clear cut. There is clear policy recognition that broadband is an enabler of economic growth and this is highlighted in the recent government policy paper “Britain’s Superfast Broadband Future” (BIS and DCMS, Dec 2010). The National Infrastructure Plan 2010 (HM Treasury, October 2010) also identifies superfast broadband as an important new technology that both private and public sectors need to invest in.

More specifically, internet access enables businesses and consumers to buy and sell goods and services more efficiently than more traditional methods such as telephone and post. Websites, extranets, intranets and email allow communication between several people and can therefore make it quicker and easier to organise complex activities. The faster the internet access, the more efficiently transactions can be made and activities organised, and the wider the range of activities people can undertake online.

Better and faster broadband attracts inward investment and enables businesses to operate effectively, even in rural areas. It also enables more people to work from home, or to have meetings with other people in other parts of the globe without travelling. This reduces transport costs and lessens the impact on transport infrastructure and the environment. By making rural premises and home-working more viable, broadband improvements remove some of the barriers to business creation and employment: in other words, they make it easier for new businesses to start up and for economically inactive people to enter or re-enter the labour market. Furthermore, improved broadband technology would complement and support the growth of the Digital and Creative Industries sector, which has an existing local strength in Cheshire & Warrington (particularly northeast Cheshire) and southern Greater Manchester.

There are also important social advantages. Better and faster broadband allows residents and community groups to access services more easily and cheaply than they previously could. In particular, it makes it easier for students to learn from home, and for teachers and lecturers to teach without travelling. Old, sick or disabled residents are better able to access more key services from home, making them more independent. Families have the opportunity to cut their bills and transport costs by making more payments online. Hence there are potential benefits for education, health and quality of life.

However, as the 2011 Cheshire & Warrington Business Needs Survey found, more than a tenth of small firms (those with 1-10 employees) still do not have broadband,

51 while a third of all businesses are less than satisfied with their broadband provision. The Business Needs Survey found that the information & communication sector was more frustrated than most with current broadband provision, which may be a sign of the greater demands that high tech sectors place on IT technologies. Furthermore, the survey reported that only a fifth of the area’s companies have superfast broadband - and this reflects the fact that the technology is not yet available in many parts of Cheshire & Warrington.

It is therefore important that faster and better web technologies, particularly superfast broadband, are made accessible to (and effectively used by) Cheshire & Warrington households and business premises. Thanks to private sector investment, a programme is already underway to provide superfast broadband to Cheshire & Warrington’s larger towns and villages. However, the private sector will not provide coverage in other (more rural) areas unless it is financially viable. Therefore rural coverage may be dependent on public sector intervention and funding.

The main up-to-date source of “hard” (statistical) evidence about local IT coverage and access is the 2011 Business Needs Survey, which was not undertaken until after Part 2 of the LEA was completed. Therefore broadband and other IT evidence is presented only in Part 1.

The next section of this chapter lists broadband and other IT SWOT issues (Strengths, Weakness, Opportunities and Threats). However, Business Needs Survey broadband and other IT results are reported in more detail in Chapter 9 of this Part 1 report. For the Survey results that are of most relevance to Broadband & IT, see Section 9.26 (IT infrastructure) of Chapter 9.

7.2 SWOT Issues for Cheshire & Warrington Broadband & IT – Strengths Internet, broadband and website access is already very widespread within the business community. The 2011 Business Needs Survey found that 87% of Cheshire & Warrington’s small firms (those with 1-10 employees) have broadband, whilst three quarters (75%) have a website. For larger firms, these proportions are greater still. [Data source: no. 1 in final table of this chapter.]

Broadband & IT – Weaknesses Large minority of firms are less than satisfied with the broadband or mobile phone networks in their area. According to the 2011 Business Needs Survey, around a third of businesses (33%) are less than satisfied with broadband provision, and a similar proportion (32%) were less than satisfied with mobile phone coverage. Information and communication sector firms – which are relatively dependent on high quality, high tech IT networks – are less satisfied than firms in other sectors. Inadequate provision could be holding back business competitiveness and growth, particularly in the information and communication sector. [Source: no. 1]

Broadband & IT – Opportunities Encouraging broadband/ internet use among those firms that still lack this technology. As implied by the Business Needs Survey statistics quoted above, a significant minority of Cheshire & Warrington’s small firms (those with 1-10 employees) still do not have broadband, whilst around a quarter do not yet have a website. [Source: no. 1] Extending access to new IT technologies, most obviously superfast broadband (SFB). The Business Needs Survey reported that only a fifth (20%) currently have SFB. This partly reflects the fact that SFB is not yet available in many parts of Cheshire & Warrington, but may also be due in part to lack of take-up in those areas where SFB is available. However, it can play a vital role in supporting business growth and business start-ups. It can also enable more people to work from home – meaning fewer journeys and less pressure on transport networks. It could therefore be an important part of efforts to reduce congestion and CO2 emissions. [Source: no. 1] Encouraging broadband/ internet use among those households that still lack this technology, so that residents are able to buy/ access a wider range of goods and services, are able to do so more cheaply and in a more environmentally sustainable manner. Using broadband and new IT technology to build on the existing strength that the Digital and Creative Industries sector has in NE Cheshire and southern Greater Manchester. [Source: nos 2 & 3]

Broadband & IT – Threats Network coverage of new IT technologies is not extended to Cheshire & Warrington, or reaches other geographical areas first (giving their businesses an advantage over those in areas with older technologies). Network coverage of new IT technologies is not extended to rural areas. The private sector will not provide coverage in rural areas unless it is financially viable. Therefore rural coverage may be dependent on public sector intervention and funding. Low take-up of new IT technologies by businesses and households.

Broadband & IT – source details for SWOT issues [1] Cheshire and Warrington Business Needs Survey 2011, June 2011. Report by BMG Research on behalf of the Cheshire & Warrington Local Authorities and the Cheshire & Warrington Enterprise Commission. [2] Annual Business Inquiry (ABI) 1998-2008, ONS, NOMIS. Crown Copyright. [3] Manchester Independent Economic Review, 2009.

8. Communities & Culture

8.1 Introduction Cheshire & Warrington is a diverse area, with many different communities that have different needs and challenges. It is also undergoing significant demographic, economic and social change, and economic strategies and initiatives need to reflect these changes.

One key issue is the sub-region’s ageing population. Cheshire & Warrington’s 65+ population is expected to grow by over 50% between 2007 and 2027. As a result, there will be increasing demand for the services that older people are more likely to use, including healthcare, social care and public transport.

Some parts of Cheshire, particularly the former District of Crewe & Nantwich, have seen a large influx of many economic migrants, particularly from Eastern Europe. This again raises demand for particular public services, but also increases the area’s cultural diversity and the range and level of skills that its working-age people can offer.

Whilst most of Cheshire & Warrington’s population live in towns and cities, most of the sub-region’s land area is rural and this rural area makes an important contribution to Cheshire & Warrington’s attractiveness, its diversity and its economy. However, for many of the sub-region’s rural communities, access to services is relatively difficult and needs to be improved.

Deprivation is less prevalent in Cheshire & Warrington than in more urban neighbouring areas, such as Greater Manchester, Merseyside and North Staffordshire (including Stoke-on-Trent). Even so, many of the sub-region’s neighbourhoods suffer from significant economic and social deprivation. All three Cheshire & Warrington Authorities and each of its nine largest towns – Chester, Congleton, Crewe, Ellesmere Port, Macclesfield, Northwich, Warrington, Wilmslow/ Handforth and Winsford – has at least one deprived area. All three Authorities also have neighbourhoods that are affected by child deprivation, which has implications for these communities’ long-term prosperity and wellbeing.

Residents’ health is generally good, with life expectancy above the national average. However, there are some parts of Cheshire & Warrington where illness and disability are relatively common. For example, in some neighbourhoods, a quarter or more of residents have a limiting long-term illness that constrains their day-to-day activities.

A strong economy and a high quality of life mean that Cheshire & Warrington is, in general, an attractive place to live. This is reflected in the demand for housing, and in house price levels. However, housing is relatively unaffordable in some parts of Cheshire, with house price-earnings ratios above the England and North West

54 averages. In some areas, there is a lack of available and suitable sites for housing development. Furthermore, house builders are now more cautious about starting new developments. This reflects the post-recession economic climate (with financial institutions, for example, being more risk-averse when offering mortgages). These factors present an extra challenge in building additional dwellings. Yet without suitable housing provision, there may be future shortages of labour. A shortage of housing is also likely to result in people travelling further to workplaces, which in turn puts pressure on transport infrastructure and networks, as well as decreasing the viability of local shops, services and community activities (particularly in smaller settlements). However, provision of affordable dwellings is growing, both in absolute terms and as a proportion of total housing development.

As Part 2 of the LEA also indicates, the tourism and leisure industry is both an important source of employment and a generator of wealth. Alongside its direct economic and cultural benefits, the sub-region’s tourist industry plays a key part in creating a strong, positive image of Cheshire & Warrington as a place to live and invest in. The historic built fabric is a key strength across the local area, most notably the city of Chester, with its city walls, cathedral, amphitheatre, racecourse and “Rows” shops. The city is also home to Chester Zoo, which received over 1.25m visitors in 2008, making it the largest attraction in the North West. Heritage assets such Tatton Park are also integral to the wider visitor economy. Jodrell Bank, home of the world-famous Lovell Radio Telescope, is another unique attraction. Cheshire & Warrington also has an attractive network of greenspace and waterways.

Unfortunately, though, there is limited or inadequate provision of some cultural facilities and services. There is a lack of venues for large-scale entertainment events (e.g. arenas and halls for music concerts) and a more limited range of other venues (e.g. theatres, cinemas and museums/ galleries) than in some neighbouring areas. Furthermore, a relatively low proportion of Cheshire residents are satisfied with local sport and leisure facilities and museums/ galleries, or with local theatres and concerts. To some extent this situation reflects the relative proximity of Manchester and Liverpool, and the cultural attractions that these major cities offer. However, these limitations constrain the growth of Cheshire & Warrington’s visitor economy and make it harder to encourage high-skilled professional people to live in the area.

The next section of this chapter lists SWOT issues (Strengths, Weakness, Opportunities and Threats) that relate to communities and cultural issues. Part 2 of the LEA contains more detailed evidence about these issues, including data to support the comments made above. Most of this evidence is within Chapters 2 (Population & Migration), 7 (Housing), 9 (Social Inclusion, Affluence & Quality of Life) and 10 (Culture, Recreation & Tourism).

8.2 SWOT Issues for Cheshire & Warrington Communities & Culture - Strengths Inflows of Eastern European migrants have led to a more diverse local community. [Data sources: nos 1 & 2 in final table of this chapter.] Increasing provision of affordable housing: by 2009/10, affordable housing accounted for 34% of all housing completions in Warrington and over 40% of all those in Cheshire East. In absolute terms, Cheshire West & Chester (385 affordable completions) almost matched Cheshire East’s total (444). [Sources: nos 3, 4 & 5] High quality of life in Cheshire & Warrington generally: in all three Authorities, over 90% of residents are satisfied with their home as a place to live (compared to an England average of 89%). Studies suggest Congleton and Macclesfield offer a particularly good quality of life. [Sources: nos 6 & 7] Affluence of Cheshire as a whole. Gross disposable income per head (£16,100 in 2008) is 9% above the UK average (£14,900). Income per head in Halton & Warrington (£14,300) is lower than the UK average, but the gap has narrowed steadily since 1995. [Source: no. 8] Cheshire East is relatively free from areas of acute deprivation. Only three of the Authority’s 231 Lower Layer Super Output Areas (LLSOAs) are in the national “top” (most deprived) 10%. [Source: no. 9] Good GCSE performance in Cheshire East (73.0% achieving 5+ A*-C grades in 2009) and Warrington (77.4%). This puts the two Unitary Authorities above the regional and England averages (70.9% and 70.0% respectively). The two Authorities also outperform the region and England in terms of the proportion achieving 5 good GCSEs including Maths and English, and the proportion getting at least 2 good Science GCSEs. [Source: no. 10] Overall health levels are good and differ little between the three Cheshire & Warrington Authorities. The proportion of local residents who are not in good health varies from 7.8% in Cheshire East to 8.8% (the England average) in Warrington. Male and female life expectancies in the Cheshire Authorities are also better than the UK (and NW) averages. [Sources: nos 11 & 12] The three Authorities also perform well in terms of the proportion of adults participating regularly in sport or other recreational exercise (with all three exceeding the NW average of 21.4%). [Source: no. 13] Chester, which is a visitor destination of national and international renown, thanks to its Roman heritage (city walls and amphitheatre), cathedral, racecourse, zoo (see below) and to the distinctiveness of its “Rows” shops. [Source: no. 14] Major visitor attractions of regional or national significance which are within Cheshire & Warrington [Sources: nos 14 & 15]: o Chester Zoo, which received 1,259,000 visitors in 2008, making it the largest attraction in the NW. o Tatton Park, which received 772,000 visitors in 2008, making it the 6th largest attraction in the NW and the 4th largest “paid” attraction. o The Peak District o The Weaver Valley Regional Park and rivers/ canals o Other country parks, stately homes and castles (e.g. Beeston, Cholmondeley, Peckforton) o Jodrell Bank, home of the Jodrell Bank Observatory and the world-famous Lovell Radio Telescope. Relative proximity of Liverpool and Manchester. Relative proximity of Snowdonia.

Communities & Culture - Weaknesses Recent increase in the number of older people puts pressure on public services which older people are more likely to use: hospitals/ other health services, care services, public transport and some leisure/ cultural facilities (e.g. libraries). [Source: no. 16] Despite the recession’s impact on house prices, housing in Cheshire & Warrington – and particularly Cheshire West & Chester - is still less affordable than in other parts of the country. By 2009, the ratio of median house prices to median earnings was 8.6 in Cheshire West & Chester and 6.7 in Cheshire East. Both these ratios are above the figures for England (6.3) and the NW (5.2). Warrington (5.6) is also below the NW regional figure. [Source: no. 17] Number of houses being built in Cheshire is insufficient to meet need: for the period from 2003/4 to 2009/10 inclusive, the number of net new dwellings was 3,000 below the RSS target. Provision in Cheshire East was also (slightly) below target. [Sources: nos 18 & 19] 62 (11%) of Cheshire & Warrington’s 567 Lower Layer Super Output Areas (LLSOAs) fall within the national “top” (most deprived) 20% of the 2007 Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD). The sub-region’s nine largest towns and cities – Chester, Congleton, Crewe, Ellesmere Port, Macclesfield, Northwich, Warrington, Wilmslow/ Handforth and Winsford – all have at least one such area of deprivation. [Source: no. 9] Child deprivation indices – the Income Deprivation Affecting Children Index (IDACI) and the Child Wellbeing Index (CWI) – suggest that around 50 Cheshire & Warrington LLSOAs (including some in each of the area’s 3 Authorities) fall within England’s worst 20%. A handful of these LLSOAs are among England’s worst 5%. [Sources: nos 9 & 20] Health Deprivation and Disability, which is more prevalent in the sub-region than other forms of deprivation. It is particularly prevalent in Ellesmere Port & Neston and Warrington. There are also 27 Lower Layer Super Output Areas (out of a total of 567) in which a quarter or more of residents have a limiting long-term illness that constrains their day-to-day activities. [Sources: nos 9 & 11] Male and female life expectancies in Warrington are below the England average (though slightly better than the NW). [Source: no. 12] Along with Crewe & Nantwich, Ellesmere Port & Neston is particularly deprived in terms of education and skills (see Chapter 4), but also has a relatively large proportion of neighbourhoods in the national top (worst) 20% for crime and employment deprivation. [Source: no. 9] Nearly a third of Cheshire East’s rural population live in LLSOAs that are in the top (worst) 20% of the 2007 English Indices of Deprivation’s Barriers to Housing & Services domain. For Cheshire West & Chester, the proportion is also close to a third. In other words, accessibility to services (and housing) is a significant challenge for a substantial minority of Cheshire’s rural neighbourhoods. [Source: no. 9] Limitations of local cultural facilities and services. Cheshire & Warrington lacks premier- league football clubs, venues which can house large-scale entertainment events (such as major pop concerts) and a concert hall. It also has a more limited range of other cultural venues (e.g. theatres, cinemas, museums/ galleries) than some of its neighbours. [Source: no. 14] Dissatisfaction of many residents with local sports and cultural facilities. In 2008, Cheshire West & Chester was in England’s bottom 25% for satisfaction with sport and leisure facilities, with only 42% of adults satisfied. Both Cheshire Authorities were around 10 percentage points below the England average for satisfaction with museums and galleries. Local theatres and concerts were another weakness: only 18% of Cheshire West & Chester’s adults were satisfied with these, whilst Warrington (33%) and Cheshire East (34%) were also well below the England average (43%). [Source: no. 6]

Communities & Culture - Opportunities Ageing population: providing the goods and services that Cheshire & Warrington’s expanding older population demands, and meeting the higher expectations that people have of healthcare provision as life expectancy increases and medical advances are made. Increased labour supply resulting from recent inflows of migrants (both internal and international), particularly in mid Cheshire. Between 2001 and 2008, the former Districts of Crewe & Nantwich and Vale Royal had greater net inflows of migrants (5,700 and 3,900 respectively) than any other Cheshire & Warrington Authority. [Source: no. 21] The skills of foreign migrants. In Cheshire & Warrington, around 27,000 NI numbers were issued to adult overseas nationals between 2002 and 2008, with Chester and Crewe & Nantwich having the highest numbers of these new migrants. Crewe in particular has a large Polish community, which has grown as a result of recent migration. Many migrants are well-qualified, yet in low-skill jobs, so their skills could be put to better use. They could also play a role in forging links with East European businesses. [Sources: nos 1, 2, 14, 22 & 23] Additional inflows of migrants could help to bridge the gap between local labour supply and demand (though this also presents some threats – see “Threats” box). Development of Basford East and West, and the construction of the Crewe Green Link Road Southern Section. Amongst other things, this presents an opportunity for large-scale job creation and to link deprived areas of Crewe to major employment sites. Creation of cultural facilities and services that will enable Cheshire & Warrington to compete more effectively with what is on offer in neighbouring areas (most obviously Greater Manchester): for example, larger-scale entertainment venues, or more theatres/ cinemas/ concert venues. This could help the sub-region to increase the size of its visitor economy. It could also help in attracting and retaining high-skill professional workers, and the businesses that employ such people. Further development of the Weaver Valley. Developments proposed by Chester Zoo, including its Natural Vision project. [Source: no. 14] 2012 Olympics, which could provide an opportunity to make greater use of the sub-region’s sporting assets and develop them further (though it could also divert resources and visitors from Cheshire & Warrington).

Communities & Culture - Threats The gap between local labour supply (number of residents who are economically active) and labour demand (number of jobs) is likely to remain a significant one. In 2007, jobs exceeded labour supply by 47,000 and forecasts suggest the gap will have narrowed only slightly (to 44,900) by 2020. This gap will have to be filled through continued net inward migration or commuting – which will put pressure on housing markets and transport networks – or by initiatives to encourage economically inactive residents to enter the labour market. The gap is relatively large – and growing slightly - in Warrington (28,600 in 2007, rising to 33,800 by 2020). [Source: no. 24] The expected future decline in numbers of young working-age people may make it harder for employers to fill vacancies. (The number of 16-44 year-olds is forecast to fall by 7.2% between 2007 and 2027.) [Sources: nos 25 & 26] Ageing population. The number of Cheshire & Warrington residents of retirement age (females aged 60+ and males aged 65+) rose by 26% during 1992-2009 and the 65+ population is expected to grow by 55% over the next two decades. The forecasts show an increasing number of older people (age 65+) being supported by a decreasing number of working-age people. This implies particular pressures on the sort of public services which older people are more likely to use: hospitals, care services, public transport and some leisure/ cultural facilities. These pressures are likely to become more acute, following the 2008-9 recession and the efforts of the Coalition Government to cut public sector spending. [Sources: nos 16, 25 & 26] Additional inflows of migrants could also put pressure on housing, public services, transport networks/ infrastructure (e.g. more congestion) and social cohesion. Once again, the recession and the subsequent public spending cuts may heighten these pressures. Local residents migrate to neighbouring areas such as South Manchester, Merseyside, Stoke-on-Trent and NE Wales, where housing is cheaper. This is likely to have an adverse effect on local labour supply. Demographic changes putting additional pressure on house prices. Cheshire & Warrington’s population is forecast to rise by 6.3% during 2007-27, and this, combined with the trend towards smaller households (e.g. more people living alone) will add significantly to future demand for housing. [Sources: nos 25 & 26] Inability to supply enough housing to meet Cheshire & Warrington residents’ needs. Without suitable housing provision, there may be future shortages of labour. A shortage of housing is also likely to result in people travelling further to workplaces, which means more inward commuting and more pressure on transport networks and infrastructure. It also decreases the viability of local shops, services and community activities, particularly in smaller settlements. Insufficient funding available to finance the Crewe Green Link Road Southern Section, which will limit the benefits to deprived communities. Decline in Cheshire & Warrington’s share of the visitor economy, as visitors are more attracted by other destinations. In particular, Tatton Park was the region’s 3rd largest attraction in 2007, but slipped to 6th in 2008. Although the number of visitors to Tatton barely changed (down from 780,000 to 772,000), some other NW attractions saw their visitor total rise by up to 400,000. Hence the risk is that this trend continues in the longer term. [Source: no. 15] Local residents increasingly attracted to leisure and cultural facilities outside Cheshire & Warrington, with an adverse impact on the local economy. This is quite conceivable, given the current limitations of local cultural facilities and services (as discussed above) and the relatively high proportion of residents in higher-skill professional and managerial occupations (also discussed above).

Communities & Culture – source details for SWOT issues [1] NINo registrations to adult overseas nationals entering the UK by year of registration and Local Authority, April 2002 – March 2008, Department for Work and Pensions (DWP). [2] Worker Registration Scheme, May 2004 – March 2009, UK Border Agency. [3] Housing returns (HSSA forms), Cheshire East Housing Strategy, “Moving forward” 2011-2016. [4] Housing Strategy Statistical Appendix 2010, Cheshire West & Chester Council (reported in Cheshire West & Chester Council Local Economic Assessment Statistical Annex, 2011). [5] Warrington Borough Council Draft SHLAA (reported in Warrington Borough Council Local Economic Assessment “Story of Place” and Statistical Annex reports, 2011). [6] Place Survey 2008. [7] The Halifax Quality of Life Surveys 2008 & 2009. [8] NUTS3 Regional Household Income (1995-2008) Data, ONS, March 2010. [9] English Indices of Deprivation 2007, DCLG, Dec 2007. [10] DfES (now the Department for Education) In Your Area web pages. [11] 2001 Census. Crown Copyright. [12] Life Expectancy at Birth, 2006-2008, ONS. [13] Active People Survey 3, 2009, Sport England. [14] Cheshire & Warrington Local Authorities’ intelligence/ local knowledge. [15] Visitor Attractions Trends in England – 2008 Annual Report, VisitEngland. Reported in the NWDA publication “England’s Northwest Key Tourism Facts”, October 2009. [16] 1992-2009 mid-year population estimates, ONS. Crown Copyright. [17] DCLG. The underlying data are from HM Land Registry and ONS’ ASHE survey (Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings). [18] Regional Spatial Strategy (RSS), 2008, NWDA. [19] RSS AMR (Annual Monitoring Report), 2010, 4NW. [20] Child Wellbeing Index (CWI), DCLG, Jan 2009. [21] Migration indicators by Local Authority areas in England & Wales, mid-2001 to mid-2008, ONS. [22] “Supporting Migrant Workers in the North West of England”, MSIO (Merseyside Social Inclusion Observatory), October 2006. [23] Report on A8 Migrant Worker Aspirations in the Cheshire and Warrington Area, MMU Cheshire, August 2008. Reported produced for the Cheshire & Warrington Economic Alliance (now CWEC). [24] Baseline projections from the Cheshire & Warrington Econometric Model (CWEM). These data were obtained using Cambridge Econometrics/IER LEFM software and are consistent with Regional Economic Prospects, February 2010. [25] 2007 based Unitary Population Forecasts for Cheshire East and Cheshire West & Chester (produced by Cheshire West & Chester Council on behalf of both Authorities). [26] 2008 based Warrington Population Forecasts (produced by Cheshire West & Chester Council).

9. Cheshire & Warrington Business Needs Survey 2011

9.1 Background to the Survey Although Part 2 of the Cheshire & Warrington Local Economic Assessment gives a useful insight into some key business characteristics, such as industry and size, there has, until very recently, been a lack of detailed and robust information about some other important characteristics, or about the challenges, needs and opportunities that local businesses face. Such evidence is necessary if the Cheshire & Warrington Authorities and their partners are to target public sector investment and support private sector investment more effectively. It is also necessary if Cheshire & Warrington partner organisations are to deliver services that more effectively address businesses’ needs and support their long-term growth.

In order to fill this key intelligence gap, the Cheshire & Warrington Local Authorities, in association with the Cheshire & Warrington Enterprise Commission, commissioned a Business Needs Survey. The survey was managed by Cheshire East Council and undertaken by BMG Research, and is the first large scale local survey of businesses for some years.

The survey covered a sample of 1,525 businesses across Cheshire & Warrington and included at least 500 businesses from each of the three Cheshire and Warrington Authorities. The survey sample was selected to be representative of the local business population in terms of business sector (i.e. industry) and size. It covered only private sector organisations and excluded those with no employees. Interviews were conducted by phone and took place in January and February 2011.

The Business Needs Survey was partly commissioned with the Local Economic Assessment in mind and Cheshire & Warrington partners intended to include its findings in the LEA. However, Part 2 of the LEA was drafted in autumn 2010 and it does not include any evidence that had become available after October of that year. To avoid confusion over the cut-off point for the Part 2 evidence, the key messages from the Business Needs Survey reported in Part 1 instead. These key messages are immediately below.

9.2 Survey Results 9.21 Economic climate Over the previous 12 months, 35% of Cheshire & Warrington businesses saw their turnover increase, but 27% reported a decrease.

Businesses are, if anything, slightly more pessimistic about future economic prospects. 29% anticipate an improvement in the business climate over the next 12 months, while 24% expect it to worsen. Information & communications sector firms are the most positive and construction sector firms the least so.

Employers were slightly more likely to have contracted their workforce in the previous 12 months (19% did) than to have expanded it (17%). Of those firms that did see a change in employment, around half changed their workforce size by only a small proportion.

Only 37% of companies had recruited any staff in the last 12 months and a slightly lower percentage (33%) thought they would do so in the following 12 months. On this basis, it seems unlikely that employment will grow significantly in the short term.

9.22 Barriers to growth The most frequently-cited barriers to business growth are taxes (cited by 57%), transport costs (52%), over-regulation/ red tape (also 52%), energy costs (49%) and competition (47%). These issues are commonly raised in other business surveys in other parts of the UK and in other years, so they appear to be a long-term, widespread concern. However, the frequency of the references to transport and energy costs might be influenced in part by the recent political instability in the Middle East (which began in the same month as the survey interviews).

9.23 Workforce Only 8% of respondents found it hard to fill any vacancies in the year prior to survey. This again reflects the current economic climate, with a relative abundance of jobseekers and a relatively small number of vacancies. The proportion was particularly low for Construction – in contrast to severe skill shortages that the sector sometimes experiences in stronger economic conditions – which again highlights the particularly adverse impact of the recession on this sector.

Vacancies are most likely to be hard to fill because of applicants having a lack of relevant skills (cited by 63% of firms that had hard-to-fill posts), qualifications (cited by 20%) and/or work experience (34%), or because of relatively few people having an interest in doing that particular type of job (cited by 36%).

64% of firms have trained some of their staff in the last 12 months and a slightly smaller proportion (62%) expect to do so during the next year.

Sales and marketing skills are most likely to be cited as an area in which staff skills need improving (34% of firms mention this). Customer care (identified as a skills gap by 25%) and IT skills (28%) were the next most frequently mentioned skills gaps. This suggests that firms are concerned about

generating new sales and retaining existing customers in a challenging economic climate.

9.24 Location Many of Cheshire & Warrington’s strengths and weaknesses as a business location revolve around transport and access issues. Transport links are the most commonly cited advantage (60% of respondents), followed by the attractiveness of the area (59%), access to neighbouring markets/ cities (52%) and proximity to suppliers (38%). For almost all advantages (though not attractiveness of the area), Warrington outperforms the two Cheshire Authorities, which probably reflects its greater proximity to Liverpool and Manchester and its excellent motorway links.

The most frequently-mentioned disadvantages are road congestion and parking difficulty (and also business rates). However, even at individual Local Authority level, no one of these disadvantages is cited by more than 10% of respondents. This indicates that local businesses have a generally positive image of the Local Authority area in which they operate.

9.25 Relocation 15% of businesses think it likely or very likely that they will relocate in the next five years (74% think it unlikely or very unlikely). The likelihood of having to relocate is greatest for information & communications sector businesses (30% of whom say “likely” or “very likely”), which is perhaps not surprising for a fast- changing sector in which the average business is relatively small (and presumably seeking to expand).

Among those firms which are likely to relocate, six out of ten (61%) expect to stay within their existing Local Authority, which again suggests that most businesses have a generally positive perception of the local area. However, 27% of those who are likely to move (4% of all businesses) expect to relocate to somewhere outside their existing Local Authority area. This suggests they feel that their current Local Authority area cannot provide for their future needs, and this is a cause for some concern.

Among those firms which are likely to relocate, four out of ten (40%) cite inappropriately-sized premises as the reason; in the vast majority of cases (86%), the problem is that the premises are too small. Compared to other (service sector) firms, production and construction companies are relatively likely to cite inappropriate size as a motive for relocating.

Of those firms which need more space, 55% require more general office space, 48% want more warehousing and storage, 28% seek more industrial space and 15% need more room for retail activity.

9.26 IT infrastructure Internet, broadband and website access is very high, even among the smallest firms. Of those organisations which employ 1-10 staff, 87% have broadband and 75% have a website. These proportions are even higher for larger firms. Only 20% of all firms say they have superfast broadband, but this in part reflects the fact that this technology is not yet available in many parts of Cheshire & Warrington.

Two thirds (67%) of respondents were satisfied with broadband provision. Information & communications sector firms were least likely to be satisfied, which perhaps is a sign of their greater demands and higher expectations.

Two thirds (68%) of respondents were satisfied with mobile phone coverage.

9.27 The environment 41% of firms have already made efforts to reduce their CO2 emissions.

As for individual initiatives to improve environmental performance, 57% of businesses had adopted a recycling scheme, 38% an energy saving scheme, 36% a waste minimisation scheme and 25% a water saving scheme. 37% had introduced or purchased environmentally friendly products. (All other initiatives were cited by less than 15% of respondents.) A quarter (27%) planned to undertake at least one new action in future.

However, 25% had not already taken any action to improve their environmental performance. Only 13% had adopted more sustainable vehicles and only 10% had adopted a travel plan, suggesting that sustainable transport is generally seen as being less of a priority than other environmental actions.

9.28 External support and advice Just over half (52%) of businesses had sought some form of independent advice in the last 12 months. The topics on which advice was most commonly sought were legislation (21%), workforce skills and training (21%), marketing (20%) and finance/ grants (20%). The common need for marketing advice again perhaps indicates businesses’ difficulties in generating sales during weak economic conditions.

Firms were most likely to approach their accountant (79% of those seeking advice did this), their bank (56%) or business associates/ friends/ family (52%). As for business support organisations and public sector bodies, the most frequently mentioned were Business Link (33% of those seeking advice), the Local Authority (23%), the Federation of Small Businesses (21%) and Jobcentre Plus (21%). The Northwest Development Agency, FE/HE institutions and the Chamber of Commerce were also approached by more than a tenth of advice-seekers.

Two fifths (41%) of companies have links to external organisations. These are most likely to be with local business networks (21% of all respondents had such links), FE colleges (17%), partnerships with other private sector organisations (14%) or universities (13%). Partnerships with public sector bodies (8%) were less common. Cheshire West & Chester businesses were more likely to have such links than their counterparts in Cheshire East and Warrington.

Where such links exist, two thirds of respondents (64%) find these links useful or very useful (26% see them as very useful).

Further information about the production of this report Acknowledgements In producing this report, thanks go to all those organisations which provided data, reports, comments, advice and other information or support. These contributors include Business Link North West, the Cheshire & Warrington Enterprise Commission, Cheshire East Council, Cheshire West & Chester Council, Connexions Cheshire & Warrington, Flintshire County Council, Halton Borough Council, Knowsley Metropolitan Borough Council, Liverpool City Council, Manchester’s Commission for the New Economy (with input from Greater Manchester Local Authorities and others), Manchester Metropolitan University, Mid Cheshire College, the Northwest Regional Development Agency, the Office for National Statistics, Reaseheath College, Shropshire Council, South Cheshire College, Staffordshire County Council, Visit Chester & Cheshire, Warrington Borough Council, West Cheshire College, Wirral Metropolitan Borough Council and Wrexham County Borough Council. Apologies go to any contributing organisations missed off this list.

Other information about this report Completion date June 2011 Lead author Nick Billington, Cheshire East Council Other contributors Rob Elliott and Andy Turzynski, Cheshire East Council; Martin Peace, Cheshire West & Chester Council; Kate Cowey, Warrington Borough Council; John Risk, Cheshire & Warrington Enterprise Commission. Production of Ben Buckley and Tracy Betty, Cheshire East Council. maps Copyright notice Readers may copy or cite extracts from this report for non- commercial use, providing that the source is acknowledged and one of the authors/ contributors informed. Disclaimer Every effort has been made to ensure that the information in this report is correct. However, Cheshire East Council can neither guarantee the accuracy of the information nor accept responsibility for any adverse consequences arising from its use. Contact details for Nick Billington enquiries Research & Consultation Team Cheshire East Council 2nd Floor Middlewich Road Westfields Sandbach CW11 1HZ Tel: 01270 685884 Email: [email protected]