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Readiness and Ad Hoc Coalition Operations in the Taiwan Strait Preparing for the Nightmare: Readiness and Ad hoc Coalition Operations in the Taiwan Strait Mark Stokes, Yang Kuang-shun, and Eric Lee September 1, 2020 Preparing for the Nightmare: Readiness and Ad hoc Coalition Operations in the Taiwan Strait About the Project 2049 Institute The Project 2049 Institute is a nonprofit research organization focused on promoting American values and security interests in the Indo-Pacific region. We specialize in open-source research using Chinese language sources to inform policy debate and advance public education. Our core mission is to create and disseminate knowledge that makes the region more peaceful and prosperous. The Project 2049 Institute is located in Arlington, Virginia, and was co-founded in 2008 by the Honorable Randall Schriver and Lt Col Mark Stokes (USAF, ret.). We are a 501(c)3 tax-exempt organization. Independent and non-partisan, our research is focused on bolstering human rights and national security. About the Authors Mark Stokes is Executive Director of the Project 2049 Institute. In addition to Taiwan issues, Mark’s research focus includes Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Rocket Force and Strategic Support Force, defense industry, military and political leadership, and cross-Strait relations. Mark has served in a variety of military and private sector positions. A 20-year U.S. Air Force veteran, he served in intelligence, planning, and policy positions. From 1984-1989, he was assigned to the Philippines and West Berlin. After graduate school and Chinese language training, Mark served as assistant air attaché at the U.S. Embassy in Beijing from 1992 to 1995. From 1995 to May 1997, he was assigned as a strategic planner within the U.S. Air Force Plans and Operations Directorate. Between 1997 and 2004, he served as senior country director for China and Taiwan in the Office of the Secretary of Defense. After retiring from military service, he worked in the private sector in Taiwan for more than three years. Mark joined Project 2049 in 2008. He holds a B.A. from Texas A&M University and graduate degrees in international relations and Asian studies from Boston University and the Naval Postgraduate School. He has working proficiency in Mandarin Chinese. Yang Kuang-shun (Miguel) is a Non-resident Fellow at the Project 2049 Institute. He received M.A. degrees in political science from Tunghai University, Northeastern University, and Arizona State University. He previously interned with the Formosan Association for Public Affairs, and he is a co-founder and an editor of an online project “U.S.-Taiwan Watch.” His research interests include U.S.-China and U.S.-Taiwan relations and specialize in the analyses of the legislation and tweets from U.S. Congress members on related issues. His writing has appeared in The Diplomat, The National Interest, Pacific Forum, Taipei Times, The News Lens, and Up Media, among other publications. Miguel is fluent in Mandarin and proficient in Taiwanese. Eric Lee is a Research Associate at the Project 2049 Institute. He received his B.A. in Political Science with a concentration in International Relations from UCLA and previously interned with the Formosan Association for Public Affairs, Oppenheimer, and KPMG. His primary areas of research are security and technology issues within U.S., China, and Taiwan trilateral relations. Eric is fluent in Mandarin. Preparing for the Nightmare: Readiness and Ad hoc Coalition Operations in the Taiwan Strait Acknowledgements The authors would like to recognize and thank Emily David, Colby Ferland, Ian Easton, Surya Narayanan, Mei Fu-hsin, Seamus Boyle, Daniel Fu, Erin Oppel, and Lyndi Tsering. Their contributions, corrections, edits, and suggestions made this a better report. Any remaining errors are the responsibility of the authors. The Project 2049 Institute’s research is supported by private foundations, U.S. government agencies, like-minded governments, corporations, and individual donors. A complete list of our supporters can be found on our website at https://project2049.net/about/. Cover Image: Badge of U.S. Military Assistance Advisory Group (MAAG) in Taiwan, ROC. (Source: "Wikimedia Commons.") Preparing for the Nightmare: Readiness and Ad hoc Coalition Operations in the Taiwan Strait Table of Contents 1. Introduction…………………………………………...………………………………… 1 2. The Threat Environment..………………………………...……………………..……....5 a. PLA Command and Control and Readiness Conditions…….....….…………........5 b. The Eastern Theater Command……………….………….………..………............6 c. PLA Nuclear Capabilities……….………………………………………………...9 d. PLA Liaison Work……….……………………………………………………….10 3. ROC (Taiwan) Strategic Readiness……………………………………………...….…11 a. Taiwan National Security Strategy……………………...……….….……..…......11 b. National Will.…………………..……………………...……….…………..….....12 c. Taiwan Readiness System.…………………………….…………………....….....12 d. National Mobilization …………………...……….…………………....………....14 e. Critical Infrastructure ……...…….…………....………………………………...16 i. Transportation…………….…….……………………………………….17 ii. Telecommunications ……………………………………………………..17 iii. Energy ……………………………….…………………………………..18 f. Central Government Budget …………………...………………………………..18 4. Operational Readiness of the ROC Armed Forces…………………………………....21 a. Fiscal Resources……………………...…………….…….………………..….....21 i. Personnel Costs ………………………...…………….….………..…......21 ii. Operations and Maintenance ……………………...……..………..….....23 iii. Military Investment ………………………………...……..………..….....24 b. Economic Development & Weapons Acquisition………...…….…………..….....24 c. Command and Control …………………………………………………………..26 i. Legal Statutes & Regulations ……………..……………………………..27 ii. Operational Plan…………………………..……………………………..27 iii. Defense Leadership…………………………..…………………………..29 iv. The Overall Defense Concept ……………..……………………………..29 v. Key Command and Control Capabilities ……….………………………..31 1. Space Systems ……………..……………………………………..34 2. Interdiction ……………………………..………………………..35 3. Electronic Warfare…………………………..………….………..35 vi. Command Centers ………………………...……………………………..36 d. Logistical Readiness Issues …………………………………….………………..37 i. ROC Army ………………………………………………………...……..37 ii. ROC Air Force ……………………………….…………………...……..39 iii. ROC Navy ………………………………………………….……...……..41 iv. Section Summary …………………….……….…………………...……..42 5. Readiness and Ad Hoc Coalition Operations in the Taiwan Strait…………………...44 a. Defense Articles and Services …………………………………….……….……..48 b. Section Summary ……………………………………………….………………..50 Preparing for the Nightmare: Readiness and Ad hoc Coalition Operations in the Taiwan Strait 6. Conclusions and Recommendations……………………………………………….......51 7. Appendix: ROC Joint Exercises…..……………………………………………….......52 8. List of Acronyms……………………………………………………………….....….....55 9. Endnotes………………………………………………………………………………...63 Preparing for the Nightmare: Readiness and Ad hoc Coalition Operations in the Taiwan Strait Introduction Taiwan, under its current Republic of China (ROC, Taiwan) Constitution, has existed as an independent sovereign state for 70 years. However, Taiwan’s continued survival as an independent country is uncertain. On January 2, 2019, Xi Jinping, the General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), publicly reinforced the Party’s long-standing policy for cross-Strait unification under a “One Country, Two Systems” formula, and stated that the CCP’s collective vision for its future—something he refers to as the “China dream” and the “great rejuvenation” — requires Taiwan’s capitulation. According to Xi, the People’s Republic of China (PRC, China) cannot rise and become a successful great power until Taiwan submits to Beijing’s “One China Principle.”1 Under this formulation, there is “One China,” Taiwan is part of China, and the PRC is the sole representative of China in the international community. From the PRC’s perspective, the ROC ceased to exist as an independent sovereign state in 1949. Given the increasing likelihood of CCP use of force against Taiwan in the foreseeable future, it is in the interests of the United States and the ROC governments to improve defense readiness at the strategic and operational levels. Perhaps most urgent are the rapid improvement of unity of effort, latent interoperability, and combined logistics. Readiness has long been difficult to define with precision. Readiness begins with a basic question: Ready for what? For the United States and Taiwan, readiness is the ability to respond effectively to CCP use of force and other forms of coercion to maintain a free and open Indo-Pacific region. Readiness can be viewed from both strategic and operational perspectives. For the purposes of this study, strategic readiness is the degree to which political leaders, their armed forces, and civil societies—individually and collectively—are prepared to counter CCP use of force. In addition to the unity of effort, strategic readiness includes national will, morale, and fiscal resources. Critical infrastructure protection and continuity of government are other facets of strategic readiness.2 Operational readiness is the degree to which a military can carry out its mission, assuming its size (including reserves) and weaponry are unchanged; it focuses on the training and status of current personnel, equipment, and the ability to mobilize in a crisis. According to the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD), operational readiness is the capability of a “unit, formation, ship, weapon system, or equipment to perform the missions or functions for which it is organized or designed.”3 For the purposes of this study, operational
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