University of Pennsylvania ScholarlyCommons Publicly Accessible Penn Dissertations 2012 The Rise and Fall of the Taiwan independence Policy: Power Shift, Domestic Constraints, and Sovereignty Assertiveness (1988-2010) Dalei Jie University of Pennsylvania, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://repository.upenn.edu/edissertations Part of the Asian Studies Commons, and the Political Science Commons Recommended Citation Jie, Dalei, "The Rise and Fall of the Taiwan independence Policy: Power Shift, Domestic Constraints, and Sovereignty Assertiveness (1988-2010)" (2012). Publicly Accessible Penn Dissertations. 524. https://repository.upenn.edu/edissertations/524 This paper is posted at ScholarlyCommons. https://repository.upenn.edu/edissertations/524 For more information, please contact [email protected]. The Rise and Fall of the Taiwan independence Policy: Power Shift, Domestic Constraints, and Sovereignty Assertiveness (1988-2010) Abstract How to explain the rise and fall of the Taiwan independence policy? As the Taiwan Strait is still the only conceivable scenario where a major power war can break out and Taiwan's words and deeds can significantly affect the prospect of a cross-strait military conflict, ot answer this question is not just a scholarly inquiry. I define the aiwanT independence policy as internal political moves by the Taiwanese government to establish Taiwan as a separate and sovereign political entity on the world stage. Although two existing prevailing explanations--electoral politics and shifting identity--have some merits, they are inadequate to explain policy change over the past twenty years. Instead, I argue that there is strategic rationale for Taiwan to assert a separate sovereignty. Sovereignty assertions are attempts to substitute normative power--the international consensus on the sanctity of sovereignty--for a shortfall in military- economic-diplomatic assets. So when Taiwan's security environment becomes more perilous as a result of adverse power shift and domestic constraints hinder internal balancing efforts, Taiwan is more likely to resort to sovereignty assertions, while favorable power shift and enhanced domestic mobilizational capacity reduce the incentive to assert sovereignty. Using congruence procedure and process tracing and drawing a large amount of historical and qualitative data, I test my argument in five periods: the early Lee Teng-hui years (1988-1994), the late Lee Teng-hui years (1995-1999), Chen Shui-bian's early moderation (2000-2001), the Chen Shui-bian era (2002-2007), and the Ma Ying-jeou era (2008-2010). I find that my theory focusing on external and internal constraints offer a better explanation of the Taiwan independence policy. My findings suggest that balancing, as a survival and security strategy, can take a political face under certain circumstances, and international norms do matter in political leaders' strategic calculations. An important policy implication is that in contrast to the conventional understanding that Taiwan independence grows out of the Taiwanese soil, it actually has an overlooked external origin. Degree Type Dissertation Degree Name Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) Graduate Group Political Science First Advisor Avery Goldstein Keywords Chen Shui-bian, China, Lee Teng-hui, Sovereignty, Taiwan independence, United States Subject Categories Asian Studies | Political Science This dissertation is available at ScholarlyCommons: https://repository.upenn.edu/edissertations/524 THE RISE AND FALL OF THE TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE POLICY: POWER SHIFT, DOMESTIC CONSTRAINTS, AND SOVEREIGNTY ASSERTIVENESS (1988-2010) Dalei Jie A DISSERTATION in Political Science Presented to the Faculties of the University of Pennsylvania in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy 2012 Supervisor of Dissertation ______________ Avery Goldstein David M. Knott Professor of Global Politics and International Relations Graduate Group Chairperson ________________ Nancy J. Hirschmann, Professor Dissertation Committee Avery Goldstein, David M. Knott Professor of Global Politics and International Relations Jacques deLisle, Stephen A. Cozen Professor of Law Yuhua Wang, Assistant Professor The Rise and Fall of the Taiwan Independence Policy: Power Shift, Domestic Constraints, and Sovereignty Assertiveness (1988-2010) COPYRIGHT 2012 Dalei Jie For My Grandparents III ACKNOWLEDGMENT Writing a dissertation is a difficult undertaking, but without the help of many, many people it is simply impossible. I am fortunate enough to have in my dissertation committee three of the best China/Taiwan experts at Penn. First and foremost I thank my dissertation supervisor Avery Goldstein. I still remember the day in early March 2004 when he made an international call telling me about my being admitted to the political science doctoral program at Penn and how excited I was. Throughout these years at Penn I have learned enormously from him by taking classes, serving as teaching assistants, discussing dissertation ideas, and chatting about current events. Beyond substantive knowledge I have also learned from him that great ideas can always be expressed in plain language; fresh ideas are not always the better ones; and labels are less important than substance. As a teacher, he is responsive, patient, and encouraging. He has set a high bar, and I can only hope to get closer in my own career. I am deeply grateful for Jacques deLisle’s contributions. Jacques, as one erudite scholar well versed with law, political science, Chinese and Taiwanese politics, always offered incisive comments to make the dissertation much stronger. I have also benefited a lot from the Asia Program he directed at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. Yuhua Wang joined my committee at a later stage, but he has also helped me greatly. In addition to providing feedback on my dissertation, Yuhua shared many of his very useful experiences as a junior scholar in academia. I also want to thank wholeheartedly Edward IV Mansfield and Jennifer Amyx for their feedback and help on my dissertation project. Jennifer helped me a lot in arranging my fieldwork in Taiwan and was nice enough to let me use her office. I am also very grateful to other faculty members in the political science department for their education and support: Ian Lustick, Rudy Sil, Rogers Smith, Tulia Falleti, Marie Gottschalk, Brendan O’Leary, and David Rousseau. The companion of fellow doctoral students in the department has made the journey in graduate school more enjoyable, and in this regard I want to thank Heon Joo Jung, Stefan Heumann, Sarah Salwen, Jennifer Coleman, Willie Gin, Nori Katagiri, Haotian Qi, Ke Wang, Basak Taraktas, Meral Ugur, and Joe Lin. My graduate school and field research have been financially supported by Penn’s Benjamin Franklin fellowship, GPASA-Provost Award for Interdisciplinary Innovation, Penfield Dissertation Fellowship, and the Browne Center for International Politics research grant. My field research in Taiwan has been helped by many people as well. I want to express my deep gratitude to the Department of Political Science of the National Chengchi University in Taipei for hosting me twice during my field research in summer 2008 and 2009. In particular, I want to thank Chao-chi Lin, Tse-kang Leng, Hung-chang Kuan, Tuan-yao Cheng, Mumin Chen, Livia Li, Chi-jen Hsieh, Henry Li, Dan Huang, and Celine Chen for their enormous help during my stay in Taiwan. I also want to thank my interlocutors for their willingness and openness to discuss cross-strait issues with someone from the other side of the Taiwan Strait. Although their names remain anonymous here, the gratitude is deep in my heart. Moreover, I thank the many friends V from mainland China and Taiwan I have made over years in Philly. There are too many to name all of them. In particular, I want to thank Elin Weng, Nagatomi Hirayama, Dexia Kong, Huaijen Hsu, Ching-kuei Kuo, Qiqi Wang, Isaac Wu, Sophia Wu, Yating Hsu, and Xiaoge Zhang. Their friendship has not only enriched my life in graduate school, but also inspired my work on cross-strait relations. Talking with them always remind me that any lofty ideas about cross-strait issues have to get down to people’s daily lives and individuals’ well-being. Finally, I thank my family for everything. Across the Pacific Ocean their love and support has been a constant source of strength for me. My parents, of course, have made everything possible; my uncle and aunt in Beijing have made their house another home for me; my other uncles and aunts, and my cousins have never failed to offer their support and encouragement even if I doubted myself. I dedicate the dissertation to my four grandparents. From the day I was born their endless love and care has made who I am and accompanied every day of my life. I can only hope to repay a tiny fraction of their love. VI ABSTRACT THE RISE AND FALL OF THE TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE POLICY: POWER SHIFT, DOMESTIC CONSTRAINTS, AND SOVEREIGNTY ASSERTIVENESS (1988-2010) Dalei Jie Avery Goldstein How to explain the rise and fall of the Taiwan independence policy? As the Taiwan Strait is still the only conceivable scenario where a major power war can break out and Taiwan’s words and deeds can significantly affect the prospect of a cross-strait military conflict, to answer this question is not just a scholarly inquiry. I define the Taiwan independence policy as internal political moves by the Taiwanese government to establish Taiwan as a separate and sovereign political