Dire Strait? Military Aspects of the China-Taiwan Confrontation and Options for U.S. Policy David A. Shlapak David T. Orletsky Barry A. Wilson Supported by the Smith Richardson Foundation National Security Research Division R The research described in this report was sponsored by the Smith Richardson Foundation. The research was conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of RAND’s National Security Research Division. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Shlapak, David A. Dire strait? ; military aspects of the China–Taiwan confrontation and options for U.S. policy / David A. Shlapak, David T. Orletsky, Barry Wilson. p. cm. “MR-1217-SRF.” Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-8330-2897-9 1. Taiwan—Military policy. 2. China—Military policy. 3. United States— Military policy. I. Orletsky, David T., 1963– II. Wilson, Barry, 1959– III. Title. UA853.T28 S55 2000 355'.03355124'9—dc21 00-062657 RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND® is a registered trademark. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions or policies of its research sponsors. © Copyright 2000 RAND All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2000 by RAND 1700 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Internet:
[email protected] PREFACE Even a half century after the birth of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the Taiwan Strait remains the locus of one of the most dan- gerous military confrontations in the world.