Edited by Saunders, Ding, Chairman Xi Remakes the PLA hina’s current military reforms are unprecedented in their Scobell, Yang, and ambition and in the scale and scope of the organizational Wuthnow ASSESSING CHINESE MILITARY REFORMS Cchanges. Virtually every part of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) now reports to different leaders, has had its mission and Chairman Xi Remakes the PLA Xi Remakes Chairman responsibilities changed, has lost or gained subordinate units, or has undergone a major internal reorganization. Drawing on papers presented at two conferences co-organized by the U.S. National Defense University, RAND, and Taiwan’s Council REFORMS MILITARY CHINESE ASSESSING of Advanced Policy Studies, this edited volume brings together some of the world’s best experts on the Chinese military to analyze the various dimensions of the reforms in detail and assess their implications for the PLA’s ability to conduct joint operations, for the Chinese Communist Party’s control of the army, and for civil-military integration. The contributors review the drivers and strategic context under- pinning the reform effort, explore the various dimensions of PLA efforts to build a force capable of conducting joint operations, con- sider the implications for the PLA services, and examine Xi Jinping’s role in driving the reforms through and using them to strengthen control over the military. The chapters chronicle successes and outstanding problems in the reform effort, and consider what the net effect will be as the PLA strives to become a “world- class” military by mid-century, if not much sooner. Edited by Phillip C. Saunders, Arthur S. Ding, Andrew Scobell, Andrew N.D. Yang, and Joel Wuthnow Chairman Xi Remakes the PLA Chairman Xi Remakes the PLA ASSESSING CHINESE MILITARY REFORMS Edited by Phillip C. Saunders, Arthur S. Ding, Andrew Scobell, Andrew N.D. Yang, and Joel Wuthnow National Defense University Press Washington, D.C. 2019 Opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied within are solely those of the contributors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Defense Department or any other agency of the Federal Government. Cleared for public release; distribution unlimited. Portions of this book may be quoted or reprinted without permission, provided that a standard source credit line is included. NDU Press would appreciate a courtesy copy of reprints or reviews. Published in the United States by National Defense University Press 260 Fifth Avenue (Building 64) Suite 2500 Fort Lesley J. McNair Washington, DC 20319 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data A catalog record of this publication may be found at the Library of Congress. Book design by Jamie Harvey, U.S. Government Printing Office his volume is dedicated to the memory of Dr. Richard H. Yang, founder and former Chairman of the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies (CAPS). TDr. Yang was a scholar with strong conviction and strategic vision who believed the world should pay close attention to the People’s Republic of China’s military modernization and efforts to rebuild China into a great power. He acted on this conviction by encouraging academics and experts to apply scientific methodology to study the modernization of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and its impact on the regional security environment. Beginning in 1987, Richard organized the international conference on PLA affairs on an annual basis and used the conference proceedings as the basis for books that have stimulated debates and become important sources of knowledge. Many young scholars and experts have benefited from the international efforts that grew out of Richard’s inspiration and hard work. This volume and the continuing international PLA conference series are efforts to build on the foundation that Richard created. CONTENTS Introduction Chairman Xi Remakes the PLA Joel Wuthnow and Phillip C. Saunders ..........................................1 Part I: Drivers and Strategic Context 1 Breaking the Paradigm: Drivers Behind the PLA’s Current Period of Reform David M. Finkelstein ....................................................45 2 Choosing the “Least Bad Option”: Organizational Interests and Change in the PLA Ground Forces John Chen ............................................................85 3 The Impacts of Xi-Era Reforms on the Chinese Navy Ian Burns McCaslin and Andrew S. Erickson ...............................125 4 The Flag Lags but Follows: The PLA and China’s Great Leap Outward Andrew Scobell and Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga .......................171 Part II: Building a Joint Force 5 Toward a More Joint, Combat Ready PLA? Mark R. Cozad .......................................................203 6 Coming to a (New) Theater Near You: Command, Control, and Forces Edmund J. Burke and Arthur Chan .......................................227 7 Handling Logistics in a Reformed PLA: The Long March Toward Joint Logistics LeighAnn Luce and Erin Richter .........................................257 8 A Modern Major General: Building Joint Commanders in the PLA Joel Wuthnow and Phillip C. Saunders ...................................293 vii Part III: Overhauling Services 9 PLA Force Reductions: Impact on the Services Daniel Gearin ........................................................327 10 The Biggest Loser in Chinese Military Reforms: The PLA Army Dennis J. Blasko ......................................................345 11 Making Sense of China’s Missile Forces David C. Logan .......................................................393 12 China’s Strategic Support Force: A Force for a New Era John Costello and Joe McReynolds ......................................437 Part IV: Centralizing Authority 13 Large and In Charge: Civil-Military Relations under Xi Jinping Phillip C. Saunders and Joel Wuthnow ...................................519 14 The New PLA Leadership: Xi Molds China’s Military to His Vision Joel McFadden, Kim Fassler, and Justin Godby ............................557 Part V: Integrating with Society 15 Keeping Up with the Jundui: Reforming the Chinese Defense Acquisition, Technology, and Industrial System Tai Ming Cheung. .585 16 Civil-Military Integration and PLA Reforms Brian Lafferty ........................................................627 17 System Overload? The 2015 PLA Force Reduction, Military-Locality Relations, and the Potential for Social Instability Ma Chengkun and John Chen. 661 18 Conclusion: Assessing Chinese Military Reforms Phillip C. Saunders and Joel Wuthnow ...................................711 About the Contributors ..............................................729 Index ..................................................................737 viii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ther than the introduction and conclusion, all the chapters in this book were originally presented as part of the PLA conference series co-sponsored by Taiwan’s Council of Advanced Policy OStudies (CAPS), National Defense University (NDU), and the RAND Cor- poration. The editors thank the authors for their patience and hard work in revising and updating their papers for publication. The editors gratefully acknowledge the presenters, discussants, and participants at the CAPS-RAND-NDU 2016 PLA Conference in Arlington, Virginia, at the RAND Washington Office: Ken Allen, Dennis Blasko, Ed Burke, Arthur Chan, Michael Chase, Richard Chen, Tai Ming Cheung, Roger Cliff, Cortez Cooper, Jeff Engstrom, David Finkelstein, Scott Harold, Tim Heath, Lonnie Henley, Alexander Huang, Jeffrey Lewis, Nan Li, Lin Ying-yu, LeighAnn Luce, Ma Chengkun, Oriana Mastro, Frank Miller, Erin Richter, Mark Stokes, and Dennis Wilder. They also thank Megan Bishop at RAND, Yi-su Yang and Polly Shen from CAPS, and Don Mosser at NDU for logistical and administrative support. MAJ Jason Halub and Patrick Shaw of the Joint Staff played an important role in obtaining permission for NDU to co-sponsor the conference. ix Chairman Xi Remakes the PLA The editors gratefully acknowledge the presenters, discussants, and participants at the CAPS-CSS-NDU-RAND 2017 PLA Conference in Taipei, Taiwan, at the Far Eastern Plaza Hotel: Ken Allen, John Chen, Richard Chen, Chia-Shen Chen, Cortez Cooper, Mark Cozad, Arthur Ding, Andrew Erickson, Kim Fassler, Dan Gearin, Scott Harold, Alexander C. Huang, Yen-Chi Hsu, Taeho Kim, Brian Lafferty, Ying-Yu Lin, Wei-The Li, Chengkun Ma, Ian Burns McCaslin, Joel McFadden, Joe McReyn- olds, Frank Miller, Brendan Mulvaney, Nathan Beauchamp Mustafaga, Weichong Ong, Jagannath Panda, Angela Poh, Phillip Saunders, Andrew Scobell, Ming-Shih Shen, Hsiang-Huang Shu, Michael Swaine, Stanley Weeks, Joel Wuthnow, Shinji Yamaguchi, Andrew N.D. Yang, Meng-Zhang Yang, Stanley Yang, Tiehlin Yen, and Tsung-Chu Yu. They also thank Betsy Kammer and Megan Bishop at RAND, Yi-su Yang and Polly Shen from CAPS, and Catherine Reese and Lucianna Perez-Pikelny at NDU for logistical and administrative support. In addition to the conference participants, others provided assistance in the preparation of the book manuscript. The editors thank NDU contract researchers Alex Jeffers and Ian Burns McCaslin for their hard work in reformatting chapters, tracking down details of missing notes and ensuring consistent formatting, and helping with the translation of terms to and from Chinese in the text and the notes. MAJ Ryan Neely provided assistance in resolving copyediting queries on several chapters. The editors thank Wil- liam Eliason and Ms. Joey Seich at NDU Press and Cameron Morse and Daniel Chykirda at the OSD Security