Political Context and Military Aspects of the China-Taiwan Dispute
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This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non-commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND PDFs to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND PDFs are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. A Question of Balance Political Context and Military Aspects of the China-Taiwan Dispute David A. Shlapak, David T. Orletsky, Toy I. Reid, Murray Scot Tanner, Barry Wilson Prepared for the Smith Richardson Foundation NATIONAL SECURITY RESEARCH DIVISION The research described in this report was sponsored by the Smith Richardson Foundation and was conducted under the auspices of the International Security and Defense Policy Center within the RAND National Security Research Division (NSRD). NSRD conducts research and analysis for the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Commands, the defense agencies, the Department of the Navy, the Marine Corps, the U.S. Coast Guard, the U.S. Intelligence Community, allied foreign governments, and foundations. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data A question of balance : political context and military aspects of the China-Taiwan dispute / David A. Shlapak ... [et al.]. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-8330-4746-5 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Taiwan—Military policy. 2. China—Military policy. 3. Taiwan—Military relations—China. 4. China—Military relations—Taiwan. I. Shlapak, David A. II. Rand Corporation. National Security Research Division. UA853.T28A2 2009 355'.033051249—dc22 2009022233 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2009 RAND Corporation Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND documents to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND documents are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND permissions page (http://www.rand.org/publications/permissions.html). Published 2009 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface This paper is the final report of a project titled “The Changing China- Taiwan Military Balance,” which evaluated key aspects of the China- Taiwan military balance looking out toward 2015. The study addressed four key questions: • How are the political dynamics of the cross-strait relationship changing, and how could those changes affect perceptions of the military balance? • How effective might China’s growing force of short-range ballistic missiles be in attacking key military targets on Taiwan, such as air bases? • How have changes in Chinese military capabilities changed the likely outcome of a possible contest for air superiority over the strait and Taiwan itself? • In the light of the above, how can Taiwan be successfully defended against a Chinese invasion attempt? This report should be of interest to military, government, and civilian planners, analysts, and scholars working on issues relating to the Taiwan Strait situation, Chinese military modernization, and U.S. military force planning and strategy in the Western Pacific. This research was sponsored by the Smith Richardson Foundation and conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Security Research Division (NSRD). NSRD conducts research and analysis for the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the iii iv A Question of Balance defense agencies, the Department of the Navy, the Marine Corps, the U.S. Coast Guard, the U.S. Intelligence Community, allied foreign governments, and foundations. For more information on RAND’s International Security and Defense Policy Center, contact the Director, James Dobbins. He can be reached by email at [email protected]; by phone at 703-413- 1100, extension 5134; or by mail at RAND, 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, Virginia 22202-5050. More information about RAND is available at www.rand.org. Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures ............................................................................. ix Tables .............................................................................. xi Summary .........................................................................xiii Acknowledgments .............................................................. xxi Abbreviations .................................................................. xxiii CHaptER ONE Introduction ....................................................................... 1 A Caveat ............................................................................. 3 CHaptER TWO Changing Cross-Strait Political Dynamics .................................. 5 Beijing’s Attitude Toward the Status Quo: Will Patience Remain a Virtue? .......................................................................... 6 The Effects of Cross-Strait Economic Integration .............................. 8 Mainland Sanctions Against Imports from Taiwan .......................10 Disruption, Damage, or Sabotage of Financial Markets or Information Networks ....................................................11 Selective Harassment or Intimidation of Taiwanese Businesspeople .....12 Taiwan’s Evolving National Identity ............................................14 The Legacy of Chen Shui-bian ..................................................16 The Politics of the Shifting Cross-Strait Military Balance .................. 22 Security Implications of the Changing Political Landscape ................ 26 The Dangers of Disappointment ............................................. 28 v vi A Question of Balance CHaptER THREE Missiles over the Strait: China’s Short-Range Ballistic Missile Force ...........................................................................31 China’s Short-Range Ballistic Missile Force ...................................32 A Simplifying Assumption .................................................... 34 Air Base Attack ....................................................................35 Cutting Runways ...............................................................37 Hangars/Maintenance Facilities ............................................. 44 Attacking Aircraft Parked in the Open ......................................45 Air Base Attack Observations ................................................ 50 Concluding Observations ........................................................51 CHaptER FOUR Assessing the Air War ...........................................................53 Analytic Approach and Scenario Variables.................................... 56 Chinese Aircrew Quality .......................................................58 Chinese Air Operations ........................................................58 Defenses Against Chinese PGMs .............................................59 Blue Sortie Generation ........................................................ 60 ROC SAM Survivability ...................................................... 60 Shelters at Blue Bases ...........................................................61 U.S. Forces Engaged ............................................................62 Laying Out the Scenario Space ..................................................63 Character of the Air War .........................................................63