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New Opportunities and Challenges for Taiwan's Security CHILDREN AND FAMILIES The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and EDUCATION AND THE ARTS decisionmaking through research and analysis. ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE This electronic document was made available from www.rand.org as a public service INFRASTRUCTURE AND of the RAND Corporation. TRANSPORTATION INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS LAW AND BUSINESS Skip all front matter: Jump to Page 16 NATIONAL SECURITY POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY Support RAND SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Purchase this document TERRORISM AND Browse Reports & Bookstore HOMELAND SECURITY Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore the RAND National Defense Research Institute View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non- commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND electronic documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND electronic documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This product is part of the RAND Corporation conference proceedings series. RAND conference proceedings present a collection of papers delivered at a conference or a summary of the conference. The material herein has been vetted by the conference attendees and both the introduction and the post-conference material have been re- viewed and approved for publication by the sponsoring research unit at RAND. New Opportunities and Challenges for Taiwan’s Security Roger Cliff, Phillip C. Saunders, Scott Harold Approved for public release; distribution unlimited NATIONAL DEFENSE RESEARCH INSTITUTE The research described in this report was conducted within the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community under Contract W74V8H-06-C-0002. Library of Congress Control Number: 2011924227 ISBN: 978-0-8330-5149-3 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2011 RAND Corporation Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND documents are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND permissions page (http://www.rand.org/publications/ permissions.html). Published 2011 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] - iii - Preface This volume is the result of the conference “Cross-Strait Relations: New Opportunities and Challenges for Taiwan’s Security,” held November 7, 2009, at National Defense University in Washington, D.C. The conference was jointly sponsored by the RAND Corporation, the Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) at National Defense University, and the Council for Advanced Policy Studies (CAPS) in Taipei. It was the 21st annual conference on China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) cosponsored by RAND and CAPS. The 2009 conference examined how a range of political, economic, and military aspects of the relationship between mainland China and Taiwan are likely to shape the challenges and opportunities for Taiwan’s security over the next decade. Leading experts on political and military issues from both the United States and Taiwan were asked to write short (five to six pages, single-spaced), incisive, policy-relevant papers on a range of topics related to four broad issues: the opportunities created by improved cross-Strait relations and what further progress will be supported by domestic politics on both sides of the Strait; the potential for confidence-building measures (CBMs) to play a role in managing or reducing cross-Strait tensions; the military balance and the impact of changes in key Chinese and Taiwanese military capabilities; and two possible alternate futures: one in which positive trends in cross-Strait political relations continue and another in which improvements in relations are reversed, including how and why these futures might come about. After the conference, the contributors were asked to revise their papers in response to questions and suggestions that were raised during the conference or subsequently conveyed by the editors of this volume. This volume presents the revised versions of those papers as well as a brief introduction by the editors. It should be of interest to analysts and policymakers interested in developments and policy initiatives that could affect cross-Strait relations and Taiwan’s security, including those interested in how CBMs could affect the China-Taiwan relationship. This research was conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community. For more information on the International Security and Defense Policy Center, see http://www.rand.org/nsrd/about/isdp.html or contact the director (contact information is provided on web page). - v - Contents Preface ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... iii Figure and Tables.................................................................................................................................................................................vii Summary.................................................................................................................................................................................................ix Acknowledgments............................................................................................................................................................................. xiii Abbreviations.........................................................................................................................................................................................xv 1. Recent Developments in Cross-Strait Relations and Their Security Implications: PRC Perspectives Alan D. Romberg...................................................................................................................................................................... 1 Basis of Improvements....................................................................................................................................................... 1 Sustainability........................................................................................................................................................................ 2 Key Issues on the Agenda ................................................................................................................................................... 5 Domestic Support...............................................................................................................................................................6 Bargaining Positions/Increasing Cooperation............................................................................................................. 7 Security Implications.......................................................................................................................................................... 8 2. The Security Implications of China-Taiwan Economic Integration Scott L. Kastner ......................................................................................................................................................................... 9 Trends in Cross-Strait Economic Integration............................................................................................................. 9 Does Economic Integration Between China and Taiwan Reduce the Likelihood of Military Conflict? .................................................................................................................................................................11 Does Economic Integration Harm Taiwan’s Security?..........................................................................................13 Conclusion ..........................................................................................................................................................................16
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