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Ecological Modelling 181 (2005) 461–478

Surface modelling of human population distribution in

Tian Xiang Yuea,∗, Ying An Wanga, Ji Yuan Liua, Shu Peng Chena, Dong Sheng Qiua, Xiang Zheng Denga, Ming Liang Liua, Yong Zhong Tiana, Bian Ping Sub

a Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 917 Building, Datun, Anwai, 100101, China b College of Science, Xi’an University of Architecture and Technology, Xi’an 710055, China Received 24 March 2003; received in revised form 23 April 2004; accepted 4 June 2004

Abstract

On the basis of introducing major data layers corresponding to net primary productivity (NPP), elevation, city distribution and transport infrastructure distribution of China, surface modelling of population distribution (SMPD) is conducted by means of grid generation method. A search radius of 200 km is defined in the process of generating each grid cell. SMPD not only pays attention to the situation of relative elements at the site of generating grid cell itself but also calculates contributions of other grid cells by searching the surrounding environment of the generating grid cell. Human population distribution trend since 1930 in China is analysed. The results show that human population distribution in China has a slanting trend from the eastern to the western and middle of China during the period from 1930 to 2000. Two scenarios in 2015 are developed under two kinds of assumptions. Both scenarios show that the trends of population floating from the western and middle regions to the eastern region of China are very outstanding with urbanization and transport development. © 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Keywords: Surface modelling; Population distribution; Grid generation; Geographical information system

1. Introduction et al., 2004). Surface modelling includes development of digital terrain models, spatial interpolation models, A surface model is the mathematical representa- area-based matching models and a multi-resolution ap- tion of a surface in such a form that it can be used proach. Three widely used principal ways of struc- in design calculations. Since the first digital terrain turing a digital terrain model are triangulated irregu- model for road design was produced by the Mas- lar networks, regular grid networks and contour-based sachusetts Institute of Technology in 1957, surface networks (Moore et al., 1992). Spatial interpolation modelling has begun to be developed (Stott, 1977; Yue models include interpolation by drawing boundaries, trend surface analysis, moving averages, Kriging in- terpolation, spline curves and finite element method ∗ Corresponding author. Tel.: +86 10 64889633; fax: +86 10 64889630. (Stein, 1999; Sabin, 1990; Shipley, 1990). Area-based E-mail address: [email protected] (T.X. Yue). matching models include radiometric model and least

0304-3800/$ – see front matter © 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2004.06.042 462 T.X. Yue et al. / Ecological Modelling 181 (2005) 461–478 squares correlation (Mustaffar and Mitchell, 2001; Geography of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 1987); Heipke, 1997; Gruen, 1985; Foestner, 1982). The transforming population data from census to grid multi-resolution approach is an image-driven surface (Tobleret al., 1997), apportioning census counts to each estimation, which is characterized by three phases that grid cell based on probability coefficients (Dobson et are shape modelling, multi-resolution model construc- al., 2000), and estimating population using nighttime tion and variable resolution representations (Sarti and light data (Sutton, 1997; Sutton et al., 1997, 2001; Lo, Tubaro, 2002; Cignoni et al., 1998). 2001; Sutton et al., 2003). Surface modelling of population distribution (SMPD) that was developed on the basis of grid gen- eration method (Yue et al., 2003) is aimed at formulat- 2. Background of major data layers ing population in a regular grid system, in which each grid cell contains an estimate of total population that In addition to total population in every province, is representative for that particular location. Compiling the major data layers that are matched with their corre- population data in grid form is by no means a new ap- sponding SMPD variables include net primary produc- proach. For instance, Adams (1968) presented a com- tivity (NPP), elevation, city distribution and transport puter generated grid map of population density in west infrastructure distribution. The elevation is a natural ; Population Atlas of China presented grid pop- factor and has a slow change with time so that it is ulation data for several regions in China (Institute of spatial variable and could be regarded as a temporal

Fig. 1. Spatial distribution of cities in (unit: thousand persons grouped by non-agricultural population in urban district). T.X. Yue et al. / Ecological Modelling 181 (2005) 461–478 463 constant within 100 years. Although NPP is based on ern China in modern history. During the period from and soil, it could be modified by human activ- 1843 to 1893, urban population proportion had slow ities so that it is a spatial and temporal variable. City growth, which was increased from 5.1% to 6.0% aver- distribution and transport infrastructure distribution are agely in China; in the area of lower reaches of spatial and temporal variables, which are determined River the urban population proportion was increased by both natural factors and human activities, have a from 7.4% to 10.6%, in the coastal area of south rapid change with during recent 100 China from 7.0% to 8.7%; in inland area the pro- years. portion paced up and down between 4.0% and 5.0%. From 1895 to 1931, in areas along and Yangtze 2.1. Spatial distribution of cities in China River, and cities were de- veloped rapidly, while in inland area cities were de- Urbanization is a process of the concentration of veloped very slowly, even at a standstill. In the early population in cities. Spatial distribution of cities and 1930s, urban population proportion was about 9.2% in proximity to cities are essential factors for human pop- China. From 1931 to 1949, the turbulent and unstable ulation distribution of China. The spatial distribution situation led to slow population growth in China and of cities in China has had the feature that city den- the urban population proportion increased to 10.6% sity is much higher in eastern China than in west- (Zhang, 1997). Cities in China spatially concentrates

Fig. 2. Spatial distribution of railways in 1930 in China. 464 T.X. Yue et al. / Ecological Modelling 181 (2005) 461–478 in coastal area, especially Yangtze River Delta, Peal tion proportion would increase at the average rate in River Delta and Beijing–– area. In recent 5 years, annually 1.44%, it would be 57.82% 2000, 42.1% of the 667 major cities of China dis- in 2015. tributed in eastern China where area accounts for 9.5% of the whole area of China; 34% distributed in mid- 2.2. Spatial distribution of transport infrastructure dle China where area accounts for 17.4%; 23.8% dis- in China tributed in where area accounts for 70.4% (Urban Society and Economy Survey Team of Transport infrastructure is a primary indicator of National Bureau of Statistics of People’s Republic of human population distribution (Dobson et al., 2000). China, 2001). The distribution densities of cities in Roads and railways are especially indicative because eastern China and in middle China were respectively of their vital role in human well being. Construction 13.1 times and 5.8 times the one in western China of a piece of railroad in 1881, which was from Tang- (as seen in Fig. 1). The urban population proportion Shan city to Feng- about 9.7 km, initiated was 36.22% in 2000 (National Bureau of Statistics railroad development in China. There was 14,411 km of People’s Republic of China, 2001). According to of railroad in China in 1930 (Fig. 2) and 21,800 km National Report of China Urban Development (China in 1949 (Fig. 3). Length of railway in operation was Mayor Association, 2002), the urban population pro- 68,700 km in 2000 (Fig. 4)(Year Book House of China portion would be 46.9% in 2015. If the urban popula- Transportation and Communications, 2001). However,

Fig. 3. Spatial distribution of railways in 1949 in China. T.X. Yue et al. / Ecological Modelling 181 (2005) 461–478 465

Fig. 4. Spatial distribution of railways in 2000 in China. relative research results showed that the appropriate cations, 2001). In recent 10 years, major projects of length of railroad should be 100,000 km in China, from highway construction include seven east–west main which current railroad length has a great gap (Chen and trunk roads and five south–north main trunk roads Zhang, 2000). To implement the western development as well as three important sections, of which total strategy, railroad building in China is paying attention length is about 35,000 km (Fig. 8). The seven east–west to strengthening the linkage between eastern region and main trunk roads include highways from western region of China, speeding up construction of to , from to Lasa, from Qing- accesses to central and and improv- dao to , from to Huerguosi, ing connection within the western region of China. To- from to , from Shanghai to Ruili tal length of railroad in China would reach 81,653 km and from to . The 5 south–north in 2015 (Fig. 5). main trunk roads include highways from Tongjiang of In 1902, the first automobile was imported in province to of province, China and in 1906 the first piece of road was con- from Beijing to , from Beijing to , structed. In 1949, length of highways that automo- from Erlianhaote to Hekou and from to biles could go through was 80,700 km (Fig. 6). Af- . The 3 important sections include highways ter construction for 50 years, total length of high- from Beijing to , from Beijing to Shang- ways was about 1.4 million km in 2000 (Fig. 7)(Year hai and passageway going abroad from southwestern Book House of China Transportation and Communi- China. 466 T.X. Yue et al. / Ecological Modelling 181 (2005) 461–478

Fig. 5. Spatial distribution of railways in 2015 in China.

2.3. Land use and spatial distribution of NPP in tem Model (Liu, 2003) is employed for analysing spa- China tial distribution of NPP in China (Fig. 10). It inte- grates different data types that include the land-use Land use is a good indicator of spatial human pop- change data, daily climatic data and soil data. The anal- ulation distribution. In most regions, population would ysis results show that the mean annual NPP of terres- range from extremely low density in , water, wet- trial ecosystems in China was 3.588 × 1015 gC year−1 lands, ice or tundra land cover to high density in de- in 1990s, which is greater 0.094 × 1015 gC year−1 veloped land cover associated urban land cover, be- than the one in 1980s. In other words, the mean an- tween which arid grasslands, and cultivated nual NPP increased by 0.49 gC m−2 year−1 during the lands would range (Dobson et al., 2000; Liu et al., 20 years. 2003a). The land-use database of China during the pe- The general situation in China is that from south- riod of 1980s and 1990s (Fig. 9), which is derived from east to northwest NPP becomes smaller and smaller Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery at 30-m res- gradually. Most of the NPP is distributed in the East olution (Liu et al., 2003b). of the rainfall line where the annual Net primary productivity is the difference between is 410 mm, excepting that there is higher NPP in accumulative photosynthesis and accumulative au- the southern slopes of Tianshan mountains and totrophic respiration by green plants per unit time and in . The maximum NPP space (Lieth and Whittaker, 1975). Terrestrial Ecosys- appears in Xiaoxinganling mountain and Changbai T.X. Yue et al. / Ecological Modelling 181 (2005) 461–478 467

Fig. 6. Spatial distribution of roads in 1949 in China. mountain in the northeast China, – on lower elevation in China. For instance, area of , , Hainan, Chongqin and provinces and hills with an elevation lower than 500 m accounts along middle and lower reaches of Yangtze for about 28% of total land area of China, where 74% River. of total population in China inhabit (Zhang, 1997). The In terms of land-use types, on the average, NPP of terrestrial parts of China are broadly divided into three shrub and open is 1071 gC m−2 year−1,ever- steps (Fig. 11) from –Xizang Plateau eastward green broad-leaved forest 975 gC m−2 year−1, decidu- (Zhao, 1986). The lofty and extensive Qinghai–Xizang ous broad-leaved forest 928 gC m−2 year−1, coniferous Plateau is the first great topographic step. Its eastern and broad-leaved mixed forest 870 gC m−2 year−1, and northern borders roughly coincide with the 3000 m farmland system 752 gC m−2 year−1, evergreen contour line. It generally has an elevation of 4000 m to coniferous forest 587 gC m−2 year−1, deciduous 5000 m and hence is called the . coniferous forest 585 gC m−2 year−1 and grassland From the eastern margin of the Qinghai–Xizang 271 gC m−2 year−1 (Liu, 2001). Plateau eastward up to the DaHinggan–Taihang– Wushan mountains lies the second great topographic 2.4. Elevation step. It is mainly composed of and basins with elevations of 1000–2000 m, such as the Nei Mongol, Elevation is an important variable of human popula- Ordos, Loess and Yunnan–Guizhou Plateaus and the tion distribution because most human settlements occur Tarim, Junggar and basins. 468 T.X. Yue et al. / Ecological Modelling 181 (2005) 461–478

Fig. 7. Spatial distribution of roads in 2000 in China.

From the eastern margin of the second step eastward ulation growth underwent a rapid increase stage from up to the coast is the third great topographic step. The 1950 to 1973, in which fertility rate was higher and largest plains of China, the northeast China , the death rate was lower and a relative slow stage after and the middle and lower Changjiang birth control policy, only one child for one couple, has Plain are distributed in this step, which generally lie at been carried out in China in 1973, in which both fertil- elevation of below 200 m. ity rate and death rate were lower. Although the birth control policy has restrained rapid population growth, 2.5. Population growth annual newborn children are still more than 9.5 million in recent years in China because of the huge base num- Since 1930, population in China has increased about ber (Research Center for Population of CASS, 1985; three times ( 1). Hu’s result (1935, 1983) showed Institute of Population and Labor Economics of CASS, that total population of China was 452.8 million per- 2001). The projection results (Jiang, 1998), on the ba- sons in 1930 and 541.67 million persons in 1949. Both sis of comprehensively analysing all factors that affect fertility rate and death rate were higher and natural population growth in China, show that population in rate of population growth was lower in the period from China under assumptions of higher total fertility rate 1930 to 1949. During the period from 1950 to 2000, to- and lower total fertility rate would be 1457.84 million tal population increased by 725.74 million persons, of persons and 1417.78 million persons, respectively, in which the annual mean growth rate was 2.7%. The pop- the year 2015. T.X. Yue et al. / Ecological Modelling 181 (2005) 461–478 469

Fig. 8. Spatial distribution of roads in .

3. Methods and results   (MNPPij (t) − 760)2 3.1. SMPD NPPij (t) = exp − (3) 106

By means of grid generation method (Morrison, raij (t) + roij (t) 1962; Sidorov, 1966; Ahuja and Coons, 1968; Liseikin, Tranij (t) = (4) maxi,j {raij (t) + roij (t)} 1999), the simulation model for population distribu- tion (SMPD) is developed (Yue et al., 2003), which is  500  ij t ≥ a transformation between computational domain (i,j)  2 dem ( ) 3700 m  (demij (t)) and physical domain (i,j,MSPDij (t)). DEMij (t) = 500 (5)  500 m < demij (t) < 3700 m  demij (t) p t ij ( ) 1 demij (t) ≤ 500 m MSPDij = G(n, t) (1) pij (t) where t is a time variable; G(n,t) is total population in province n at time t, in which grid cell (i,j) is located, 0.0001 0.7 pij (t) = Wij (t)(NPPij (t)) (DEMij (t)) or whole China; Wij (t) is an indicative factor of water   area, when grid cell (i,j) is located in water area Wij (t) 1.2 M(t) S t = 0, or else Wij (t)=1;Tranij (t) is a transport infras- 1.3 ( k( )) × (Tranij (t)) (2) tructure factor of grid cell (i,j); NPPij (t) is a factor of dijk (t) k=1 net primary productivity of grid cell (i,j); DEMij (t)is 470 T.X. Yue et al. / Ecological Modelling 181 (2005) 461–478

Fig. 9. Land cover of China in 2000.

Fig. 10. Spatial distribution of the mean NPP in 1990s in China (unit: gC m−2 year−1; after Liu, 2001). T.X. Yue et al. / Ecological Modelling 181 (2005) 461–478 471

Fig. 11. Digital elevation model of China.

an elevation factor of grid cell (i,j); Sk(t) is size of the are available in 1930, 1949 and 2000, G(n,t), n =1,2, kth city; M(t) is the total number of cities; dijk (t)isthe ..., 31, represent provincial population in the process distance from grid cell (i,j) to the core grid cell that has of population distribution simulation at the first three the highest population density in the kth city; raij (t) times-points. Population projection for 2015 is only and roij (t) represent, respectively, rail density and road carried out on national level so that G(n,t), n = 1, rep- density at grid cell (i,j); MNPPij (t) is the mean annual resents population of the whole China, in the process net primary productivity at grid cell (i,j); demij (t)is of developing scenarios at the last times-point. elevation at grid cell (i,j). The major auxiliary tools of grid generation include ArcInfo GIS and Delphi computer language. Nine 3.2. Simulation process data layers are involved, which are NPP (net primary productivity), LU (land use database), DEM (digital SMPD simulates population distributions at four elevation model), WA (water area), GridRail (railway times-points that are the years of 1930, 1949, 2000 network), GridRoad (road network), Chbnd (admin- and 2015. Because population data in every province istrative boundary), Chzh (urban area) and Cityshp 472 T.X. Yue et al. / Ecological Modelling 181 (2005) 461–478

Table 1 The provincial population of China excluding , and Macao temporarily Region Area (km2) Population size (million persons) Population density (person per km2)

1930 1949 2000 1930 1949 2000 Western China 6725746 110.63 174.57 354.60 16 26 53 Inner 1143327 4.40 37.88 23.0143320 Guangxi 236544 11.50 18.42 47.24 49 78 200 Chongqing 82390 Belong to Sichuan Belong to Sichuan 30.91 Belong to Sichuan Belong to Sichuan 375 Sichuan 483759 51.34 57.30 84.07 106 118 174 Guizhou 176109 11.03 14.16 36.77 63 80 209 Yunnan 383101 11.52 15.95 40.77 30 42 106 1201653 0.78 1.00 2.51112 205732 10.39 13.17 35.72 50 64 174 404622 5.49 9.68 25.34 14 24 63 Qinghai 716677 1.28 1.48 4.80227 51785 0.39 1.20 5.54 8 23 107 Xinjiang 1640111 2.51 4.33 17.92 2 3 11 Middle China 1670726 150.15 161.41 419.41 90 97 251 156563 11.30 12.81 31.96 72 82 204 Anhui 140165 21.92 27.86 62.78 156 199 448 166960 17.16 12.68 41.64 103 76 249 165619 31.92 41.74 95.27 193 252 575 Hubei 185950 25.94 25.36 59.36 140 136 319 211815 29.54 29.87 65.15 139 141 308 191093 7.82 10.09 26.27 41 53 137 Helongjiang 452561 4.55 1.01 36.98 10 2 82 Eastern China 1203528 187.23 205.68 462.71 156 171 384 Beijing 16386 1.52 4.14 11.14 93 253 680 Tianjin 11620 1.47 3.99 9.19 126 344 791 188111 30.29 30.86 66.71 161 164 355 146316 16.08 18.31 41.35 110 125 283 Shanghai 8013 3.91 5.06 13.22 488 632 1650 103405 30.29 35.12 70.69 293 340 684 Zhejiang 103196 20.07 20.83 45.01 194 202 436 Fujian 122468 13.99 11.88 33.05 114 97 270 157119 36.67 45.49 89.75 233 290 571 179776 32.93 30.00 74.99 183 167 417 Hainan 40070 Belong to Belong to 7.61 Belong to Belong to 190 Guangdong Guangdong Guangdong Guangdong

(geographical coordinate of city). The data are first with LNpp by Intersect and creating a data layer, DL- pre-processed as follows: (1) converting NPP into vec- Npp and (7) overlaying WA with DLNpp by Intersect tor data, (2) overlaying Chbnd with GridRoad and and creating a data layer, WDLNpp. GridRail by Intersect and creating a data layer, ChB- Every grid cell in 1 km × 1 km resolution is gener- ndNew, (3) adding fields, CityFlag for urban code and ated on the basis of WDLNpp, which includes six steps: rural code and CityArea for areas of urban districts, in (1) to read the attribute values of natural and socioe- Chzh, (4) overlaying Chzh with ChBndNew by Inter- conomic indicators at every grid cell, (2) to calculate sect and creating a data layer, ChCity, (5) overlaying the contribution of NPP and elevation to the generat- NPP with ChCity by Intersect and creating a data layer, ing grid cell, (3) to define a search radius of 200 km NppNew, (6) overlaying LU with NppNew by Intersect and to search cities and transport infrastructures that and creating a data layer, LNpp, (6) overlaying DEM have considerable effects on the generating grid cell, T.X. Yue et al. / Ecological Modelling 181 (2005) 461–478 473

Fig. 12. The human population distribution of China in 1930 (unit: persons per square kilometer).

(4) to calculate the contribution of the searched cities of China consists of eight provinces that are Shanxi, and transport infrastructures to the generating grid cell, Anhui, Jiangxi, Henan, Hubei, Hunan, Jilin and He- (5) to operate the SMPD and (6) text file of the calcu- longjiang, of which area is 1.67 million km2 and ac- lated result is converted into point vector data and grid counts for 17.4% of the Whole of China. The eastern data is created from the point vector data. region of China consists of 11 provinces that are Bei- jing, Tianjin, Hebei, Liaoning, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhe- 3.3. Results jiang, Fujian, Shandong, Guangdong and Hainan, of which area is 1.2 million km2 and accounts for 12.5% According to current ecological and economical sit- of the whole of China. uation, China could be geographically analysed in three A comparison of the simulation results shows that regions that are western, middle and eastern China. The the ratios of population in the western region of China western region of China consists of five provinces in to total population of China were 24% in 1930 (Fig. 12), , five provinces in , 32% in 1949 (Fig. 13) and 29% in 2000 (Fig. 14); the Autonomous region and Guangxi ones in the middle region were 33% in 1930, 30% Zhuang Autonomous region. The five provinces in in 1949 and 34% in 2000; the ones in the eastern southwest China are Sichuan province, Chongqing region were 41% in 1930, 38% in 1949 and 37% in city, Yunnan province, Guizhou province and Tibet 2000. Human population had a slanting trend from Autonomous region. The five provinces in northwest the eastern region to the western and middle regions China are Shaanxi province, Gansu province, Ningxia of China during the period from 1930 to 2000. From Hui Autonomous region, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous 1930 to 1949, on an average, annual growth rate of region and Qinghai province. Area of the western re- population was 3% in the western region, 0.4% in the gion of China is about 6.7546 million km2, account- middle region and 0.5% in the eastern region; from ing for 70% of the whole of China. The middle region 1949 to 2000, annual growth rates of population were 474 T.X. Yue et al. / Ecological Modelling 181 (2005) 461–478

Fig. 13. The human population distribution of China in 1949 (unit: persons per square kilometer).

Fig. 14. The human population distribution of China in 2000 (unit: persons per square kilometer). T.X. Yue et al. / Ecological Modelling 181 (2005) 461–478 475

Table 2 Population change of in different regions of China excluding Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao temporarily Years and scenarios The western region The middle region The eastern region

Population Ratio (%) Population Ratio (%) Population Ratio (%) 1930 110.63 24 150.15 33 187.23 41 1949 174.57 32 161.42 30 205.68 38 2000 354.6 29 419.41 34 462.71 37 2015 Scenario I 180.86 12 427.56 29 849.42 58 Scenario II 196.55 14 439.31 31 781.92 55 respectively 2%, 3.1% and 2.5% in the western, middle the urban population proportion will be 46.9% (China and eastern region (Table 2). Mayor Association, 2002). The major highway con- From now to 2015, all of urban population propor- struction projects will be completed in 2010. During the tion, large-scale highway construction and population period from 2010 to 2015, construction length of high- growth have at least two possibilities in China. If the ways might be continued at the increase rate, 0.25% increase of urban population proportion at the average annually, as in the period from 2000 to 2010; it is also rate in recent 5 years, annually 1.44%, the urban pop- possible that large-scale highway construction stagnate ulation proportion would be 57.82% in 2015; but in temporally. In terms of the projection (Jiang, 1998), terms of the National Report of China Urban Devel- population would be 1457.84 million persons at higher opment, the increase rate will be 1.0% annually and total fertility rate and would be 1417.78 million persons

Fig. 15. Scenario I of the human population density (unit: persons per square kilometer). 476 T.X. Yue et al. / Ecological Modelling 181 (2005) 461–478

Fig. 16. Scenario II of the human population density (unit: persons per square kilometer). at lower total fertility rate in 2015 in China. There- 4. Discussions fore, as an example of SMPD advantage for scenario development, two scenarios are here developed under The of model results into geographical assumptions that railway construction planning would patterns is already under rapid development by use have been successfully carried out, increase rate of NPP of geographical information system (GIS) (Jørgensen, would be 0.49 gC m−2 year−1 and elevation on national 2002). SMPD is such a method that integrates spa- level has little change. The two scenarios are distin- tial and non-spatial information from various sources guished into I and II. In the scenario I, it is supposed such as remote sensing, statistics, ecosystem research that the urban population proportion would be 57.82% network, various monitoring systems, and investiga- in 2015, annual increase rate of highway construction tion on-the-spot by means of GIS. In addition to would be 0.25% during the period from 2010 to 2015, SMPD, GIS-based methods that have been devel- and population would be 1457.84 million persons in oped for integrating economic and ecological in- 2015 (Fig. 15). In the scenario II, the urban population formation in recent years include spatial detailed proportion would be 46.9%, large-scale highway con- Biotope Landscape Model (Muenier et al., 2004), struction during the period from 2010 to 2015 would GIS-extended nitrate pollution model (Matejˇ ´ıcekˇ et be temporal stagnation and there would be 1417.78 al., 2003), FORRUS-S model for forest management million persons in 2015 (Fig. 16). Both scenarios show (Chumachenko et al., 2003), Model of Hierarchical that population might greatly float from the western and Patch Dynamics (Burnett and Blaschke, 2003), GIS- middle regions to the eastern region of China (Table 2). based Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator Model The more rapid the urbanization and transportation de- (Tan and Shibasaki, 2003), Optimisation Method- velopment would be, the bigger the population floating ology for land use patterns (Seppelt and Voinov, speed would be. 2002), the multi-disciplinary integrated model system T.X. Yue et al. / Ecological Modelling 181 (2005) 461–478 477 consisting of the models ProLand, ELLA and SWAT Acknowledgments (Weber et al., 2001), and Spatial EPIC (Priya and Shibasaki, 2001). Comparing with other GIS-based This work is supported by National Basic Research methods, SMPD not only pays attention to the sit- Priorities Program (grant no. 2002CB4125) of Ministry uation of relative elements at the site of generat- of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic ing grid cell itself but also calculates contributions of China and by Projects of National Natural Science of other grid cells by searching the surrounding en- Foundation of China (grant no. 40371094). vironment of the generating grid cell. For instance, in the case of this paper, a search radius of 200 km is defined in the process of generating each grid References cell. Although the Optimisation Methodology adopted a grid search strategy and performed a grid search Adams, J., 1968. A Population Map of West Africa, Graduate School through the entire control space assuming a homo- of Geography Discussion Paper No. 26. 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