Russia's North Caucasus

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CSS Analysis in Security Policy CSS ETH Zurich No. 95 • June 2011 RUSSIA’S NORTH CAUCASUS: AN ARC OF INSECURITY Although Chechnya no longer makes international headlines, instability persists and has actually spread within the wider North Caucasus region. Degrading socio-economic conditions, an unstable political situation, and increasing religious tension have made the North Caucasus susceptible to Islamist insurgency and terrorist activity. The modernisation strategy for the North Caucasus launched by Moscow in 2008 has failed to reverse the situation so far. Turning into an arc of insecurity, the region poses a growing challenge to stability within Russia and beyond.

the present time, the Russian authorities are failing to adequately deal with this instability, which has negative repercussions for both Russian and international security.

Spreading instability The current insecurity in the North Cau- casus can be traced back to the mid-late 1990s. Following the end of the Soviet Un- ion, the Chechen Republic declared itself independent from the Russian Federation, leading Moscow to launch a large-scale military campaign in Chechnya, with the aim of re-imposing constitutional order. In the years following the end of this military campaign, the nature of the separatist movement inside Chechnya changed from Soldiers stand guard at a check point of a military camp in Dagestan, 5 September 2010 REUTERS / Ho New a secessionist movement to an Islamist- inspired and more diffuse network of in- For much of the last two decades, Russia’s received much less attention and cover- surgents. two military campaigns in Chechnya have age both within Russia and internation- placed insecurity in the North Caucasus, do- ally. And yet, insecurity, terrorism, and in- In September 1999, an incursion of a 1,500- mestic terrorism, and anti-terrorist strategy stability not only persist, but have in fact man armed group from Chechnya into at the fore front of Russian domestic poli- expanded geographically to include much the neighbouring Republic of Dagestan, tics. Russia’s military actions in Chechnya of the rest of the North Caucasus, most in combination with a string of apart- were also issues that had a high-profile intensely within the Republics of Dag- ment bombings in Buynaksk, Moscow, and resonance in the international arena. Inter- estan, Ingushetia, and Kabardino-Balkaria. Volgodonsk, blamed on Chechen terror- national debate centred on concerns over Furthermore, extremist groups within the ist groups, led to the launch of a second the large-scale fighting and heavy-handed North Caucasus have resumed terrorist large-scale Russian military campaign in approach of Russian security forces on the actions on high-profile targets in other Chechnya. In contrast to the first cam- ground in Chechnya, the plight and human regions of Russia, including the January paign, this operation was presented as a security situation of the ordinary Chechens, 2011 bombing of the international arriv- counter-terrorist operation to eradicate as well as a series of major terrorist actions als lounge of Moscow’s largest airport. domestic and international terrorists, rath- within Russia by Chechen and North Cauca- There is increasing concern that these er than suppress separatism. Since 2000, sian militant groups, in particular the Du- groups will target the 2014 Winter Olym- the Russian government has argued that brovka theatre siege in 2002 and the Beslan pic Games, which will be held in Sochi, a large-scale conflict has ceased, prompt- school siege in 2004. city situated near to the North Caucasus ing the authorities to introduce a policy region. of “normalisation”, aimed at the transfer More recently, as large scale hostilities and of administrative control to a Chechen military operations have ceased, Chechnya The root causes for violence in the North Republican leadership, alongside ongoing and the wider North Caucasus region have Caucasus are manifold and multiplying. At counter-terrorist operations to eradicate

the remaining insurgents operating on the Russia’s North Caucasus Federal District ground in Chechnya. RUSSIA During the early to mid-2000s, this normalisation process squeezed insurgents out of Chechnya and into other parts of the North Sochi KAZAKHSTAN Caucasus, in particular the predominantly KARACHAY- CHERKESSIA STAVROPOL KRAI Muslim Republics of Ingushetia, Dagestan, KABARDINO and Kabardino-Balkaria. The influx of these BALKARIA insurgent groups into areas in which so- NORTH OSSETIA INGUSHETIA cietal dislocation, poverty, weak political governance, and repressive security services GEORGIA CHECHNYA were already rife, led to an escalation of vio- DAGESTAN lence across the region, some of which is currently being expressed through terrorist TURKEY

activity. The root cause of current instability ARMENIA is not secessionism, but a fusion of general AZERBAIJAN societal instability and Islamist extremism. Indeed, the geographical widening of soci- disillusionment with the local leadership a series of measures to counteract the es- etal dislocation across the North Caucasus (appointed by Moscow), who are seen as calating violence in the North Caucasus, has led to a proliferation of Islamist ter- acting for their own benefit and enrich- which are based on a three-pronged ap- rorist cells and groups, centered on a pan- ment, rather than for the good of the Re- proach to arresting instability and violence: North Caucasian network known as the public’s population. This tension was more leadership reshuffles, federal restructuring “Caucasus Emirate”, which outlines its pri- acute prior to the change of leadership in and socio-economic development schemes. mary goal as the creation of a single Islamic 2009. In Kabardino-Balkaria, societal dislo- The Presidents of Ingushetia and Dagestan state on Russian territory and beyond. cation is linked to a growing feud between were replaced in 2008 and 2010 respective- the two main ethnic groups, the Kabardins ly. In 2010, the North Caucasus has officially This geographical expansion of insurgents and Balkars, over which one controls the le- separated from the larger Southern Federal has meant that while terrorist incidents in vers of power in the Republic. District to form a new North Caucasus Fed- Chechnya have declined in recent years, the eral District. This change in federal struc- overall number of casualties from terrorist As for Chechnya, since the election of ture was accompanied by the launch of a actions across the wider North Caucasus Ramzan Kadyrov as President in 2007, a 15-year economic and development plan for region has remained high throughout the more centralised “vertical of power”, akin the North Caucasus Federal District, aimed 2000s, with a sharp increase since 2009. to an autocratic fiefdom, has been created, at revitalising the local economy and reduc- According to the NGO Kavkaz Uzel, there which has led to a significant decrease in ing societal dislocation. were 238 terrorist actions in the North Cau- terrorist activity. This in turn has convinced casus in 2010, with at least 1,710 people vic- Moscow to officially end the federal coun- However, in spite of these new initiatives, tims: 754 dead and 956 injured. Whilst the ter-terrorist operation in Chechnya on 17 the federal approach to the North Cauca- overall number of attacks within the North April 2009. Whilst the terrorist threat from sus remains more or less the same as dur- Caucasus as a whole has remained stable insurgent groups has declined, the Kady- ing the 2000s, emphasising the need for over recent years, currently violence in Kab- rov regime’s terrorising methods aimed at better economic conditions, muting issues ardino-Balkaria and Dagestan is on the rise, maintaining order have not resolved low- of poor political governance, and relying while there has been a decline in attacks level societal insecurity within Chechnya. upon counter-terrorist operations. It seems not just in Chechnya but also in Ingushetia. clear that if the more liberal aspects of this The death of key Islamist rebel leaders – Al- Medvedev’s modernisation policy modernisation strategy are to be effective, exander Tikhomirov (also called Said Bury- During the last years of the Putin presiden- a radical overhaul of Russian state and so- atsky) in March 2010 and Ali Taziyev (also cy, Russian authorities seemed to be active- ciety is required. However, it is also evident known as Magas) in June 2010 – has result- ly attempting to silence the issue of insecu- that regardless of the rhetoric of mod- ed in a lull in terrorist activity in Ingushetia. rity in the North Caucasus. By comparison, ernisation, the Russian authorities are not in recent years, Russia has been more forth- about to undertake such a major overhaul, Although insecurity has become general- coming in recognising the geographical neither in Russia as a whole, nor specifi- ised across the North Caucasus, the main expansion and increase in magnitude of se- cally in the North Caucasus. factors driving the violence are different curity problems in the North Caucasus. The from Republic to Republic. The dramatic in- current Russian President, Dmitri Medvedev, As well as failing to effectively address the crease in violence in Dagestan is primarily has called terrorism and instability in the poor socio-economic situation, including a function of divisions on religious grounds, North Caucasus, the “single biggest internal high levels of unemployment and corrup- in particular clashes between Islamist threat to Russia”. As well as ongoing coun- tion, and poor political governance in the groupings that take their inspiration from ter-insurgency operations, this renewed North Caucasus, both Moscow and the abroad and the followers of the more tra- emphasis on tackling insecurity in the Republican leaderships have not engaged ditional North Caucasian forms of Islam, North Caucasus is evident in Medvedev’s sufficiently with the local population, either such as Sufism. In Ingushetia, tensions and premier political project “modernisation”. in seeking to resolve wider societal prob- violence are primarily centered on societal This modernisation programme includes lems or in relation to the implementation

of counter-insurgency measures. In the few cases in which a dialogue between the pop- Major terrorist incidents in Russia since 2000 ulation and the authorities has been initiat- Date Incident Casualties ed, such as by the current Ingush President January 2011 Domodedovo International 37 deaths, 180 injured Yevkurov, violence and instability appears Airport bombing, Moscow to be dropping. However, this strategy is March 2010 Two bomb blasts at Moscow 34 deaths, 18 injured not being used elsewhere in the region, and metro stations this lack of consultation has created fertile November 2009 Explosion on a Nevsky express 26 deaths, 96 injured ground for insurgent groups, especially in train from Moscow to terms of recruiting disillusioned youth. St Petersburg August 2006 Bomb at a Moscow market 10 deaths As the situation on the ground in the September 2004 Beslan school siege, North Ossetia Over 300 deaths, around 800 North Caucasus has deteriorated in recent injured years, the Russian state has attempted to October 2002 Dubrovka Theatre Siege, Moscow 170 deaths, over 700 injured isolate North Caucasian insecurity from the rest of Russia. However, the Russian authorities have not been very successful ongoing regional links between the North the North Caucasus) have been the third in this regard, as extremist groups from Caucasus insurgency and al-Qaeda groups largest nationality group claiming asylum the North Caucasus continue to conduct in the wider Middle East and Afghanistan. in Europe, leading to debates within cer- regular terrorist attacks in major Russian Indeed, the Russian authorities proclaim tain countries (such as Poland and Nor- cities. In turn, the Russian population, and to have killed top al-Qaeda operatives, of way) about the status of these asylum to some extent the Russian leadership, Saudi and Turkish nationality, operating seekers. Furthermore, the European Court have become resigned to a high-level of in the North Caucasus during spring 2011. of Human Rights is seeing a significant terrorist threat across the country. Also, al-Qaeda-inspired cells and groups flow of plaintive cases from North Cauca- continue to express solidarity and support sians, asserting human rights abuses by External implications with North Caucasus jihadists. the Russian Federation, which are being While insecurity in the North Caucasus is settled in favour of the North Caucasus primarily a challenge for Russian internal The Russian authorities’ concerns about population. stability, it also has ramifications for re- the interconnected nature of Islamist ac- gional and international security. tivity in the North Caucasus is linked with Until recently, Russia has reacted harshly wider fears about the political and security to European efforts to discuss the situa- Geopolitically, instability in the North Cau- situation in Afghanistan, against the back- tion in the North Caucasus and has sought casus contributes negatively to conflict ground of the West’s intention to with- to restrict the influence of external actors transformation and stabilisation efforts in draw its military role in Afghanistan in up- in this region. However, in the last couple the wider Caucasus region. Firstly, the “Cau- coming years. Moscow fears that this may of years, Moscow has become more con- casus Emirate” group proclaims that its re- lead to Islamist-inspired extremist groups ciliatory towards Europe in relation to the bels and operatives function not only with- and illegal drug and arms traffickers in the North Caucasus question, responding more in Russia’s borders, but also further afield, Afghanistan/Central Asia region revitalis- positively towards the Council of Europe’s including Azerbaijan. Secondly, the North ing linkages with North Caucasian insur- latest report on the situation in the region. Caucasus has emerged as another fault gents, as was the case during the 1990s. In addition, Russia has been more active in line in Russian-Georgian relations. Moscow At this stage, North Caucasus extremist paying the compensation awarded by the has been angered by Georgia’s (October groups are primarily focussed on terror- European Court of Human Rights to North 2010) establishment of a visa-free regime ist activity within Russia, however there is Caucasians bringing cases of human rights for North Caucasus residents and a speech a possibility that these groups could seek abuses by the Russian state. Hence, there is by Georgian President, Mikheil Saakashvili, to act outside of Russia, working either in- scope for an increase in rapport and coop- to the United Nations General Assembly in dependently or in conjunction with other eration between Russia and Europe around September 2010, in which he outlined his terrorist groups. Indeed, a terrorist cell this issue and for Europe to play a greater vision of a “unified Caucasus”. These dis- with links to the North Caucasus insur- role in the amelioration of the security situ- putes over the North Caucasus have made gency was recently uncovered by the Czech ation in the North Caucasus. the resolution and settlement of Georgia – authorities. However, currently the West is South Ossetian relations, in the wake of the not a primary target for North Caucasus 2008 war between Russia and Georgia over insurgents. Author: South Ossetia, more difficult. Aglaya Snetkov Europe’s role [email protected] The North Caucasus also functions as The situation inside the North Caucasus Responsible editor: one component in a chain of instability continues to be a source of tension be- Daniel Möckli and terrorist activity that spans the Mid- tween Russia and its European partners, [email protected] dle East, Eurasia, and South Asia. Both of- particularly in relation to asylum cases and Other CSS Analyses / Mailinglist: ficial and independent Russian sources human security. The EU is the recipient of www.sta.ethz.ch remain concerned about the radicalisa- a large influx of asylum seekers from the tion of North Caucasian youth that travel North Caucasus. Since 2003, asylum seek- German and French versions: to the Middle East for education and the ers from Russia (many of whom are from www.ssn.ethz.ch