Theses 1. North Caucasus is the most instable part of the Russian Federation: since the early 90’s, the- re has been going on the military conflict in Che- chnya, which is gradually spilling over into the other republics of the region, terrorism seems to have occupied its regular position in the political life of Caucasus, organised crime is flourishing, the tension persists there and military incidents and attacks are breaking out every now and again. During the recent year, the destabilisation of the region, which affects many fields of Russian political and social life, has grown to an alar- ming size. North Caucasus: 2. There are many reasons for the instability in the region; they stem from numerous political, the Russian Gordian knot religious and socioeconomic problems and con- flicts. They all overlap, interweave and create a complex network. The most difficult problem The key problems and conflicts 43 is the war in Chechnya, lasting since the early in the region and the effect 90’s, which is spilling over the neighbouring re- thereof on the future of Russia publics, takes increasingly more drastic shapes and poses a threat to the security and stability of the entire country. The conflict stimulates dan- Maciej Falkowski gerous tendencies and processes all over Cauca- sus: it is one of the reasons for the intensifying anti-Russian sentiments in the local communities, North Caucasus: the Gordian Russian knot and it accelerates their drifting towards radical Islam, etc. Moreover, the region is a scene of nu- merous ethnic conflicts (the conflicts in Dage- stan, the western part of Caucasus, the Ingush- -Ossetian conflict), religious (mainly inside Islam) and conflicts between the indigenous Russian people and immigrants from Caucasus and Cen- tral Asia in Stavropol and Krasnodar Krais as well as acute socioeconomic problems (poverty, un- employment, overpopulation, growing crime). 3. Since the collapse of the USSR, the Kremlin has failed to frame a consistent and long-term con- cept for development of North Caucasus and its integration with the rest of Russia. The Russian authorities’ policy towards Caucasus is limited to emergency actions, responding to crises instead of preventing them. It consists in abortive attempts to liquidate the effects of negative ten- dencies and events and not on counteracting the causes thereof. The authorities are still making the same mistakes, unwilling to recognise their CES Studies obvious failures. The key elements of the policy disintegration of the Russian state, of its struc- include: preventing any interference of other tures and society; unless this is held back, in the countries and international organisations in the longer term, it may become a source of its col- region, conducting the “antiterrorist operation”, lapse. Russia’s position in the post-Soviet area and, supporting the puppet regimes in particular re- above all, in South Caucasus will also depend on publics, marginalisation of the opposition and the the way the situation in North Caucasus develops. far-flung propaganda in the mass media, which shows a false picture of the reality. A great role in the Caucasian policy of the Kremlin is played Introduction by law enforcement structures, whose interests often collide with the interests of the Russian This paper is meant to systematise and describe state. Such a policy does not lead to resolving the complex political, social, religious and eco- problems and conflicts, on the contrary, it leads nomic situation in the region, above all, the key to deepening and escalation thereof. problems and conflicts, which give rise to the re- gional destabilisation. In our analysis of the cau- 4. The future of North Caucasus depends on ses of instability in North Caucasus and of the either settlement or worsening of the existing Kremlin’s policy in the region we will try to ans- problems; if they intensify, Caucasus will be wer the question about the future of the Russian plunging in chaos. The instability in the region Caucasus and the influence of the processes and is accompanied by further-reaching processes, tendencies existing there on the future of Russia. i.e. gradual drifting apart of Caucasus from Rus- 44 sia, its derussification and increasingly faster Islamisation. Such tendencies, which in the pros- I. The key problems of the pect of several decades could end in a high degree region of autonomy or even separation of the region from the Russian Federation, could be slowed North Caucasus is situated in the southern part down through working out of a comprehensive of the Russian Federation, between the Black and concept for development of the region. However, Caspian Seas. In the south, it borders on Georgia North Caucasus: the Gordian Russian knot for the time being, the Kremlin has neither poli- and Azerbaijan, which together with Armenia tical will nor ability to develop and implement form South Caucasus1. North Caucasus consists such a concept: the main reasons for that are the of eight autonomous republics, which are main- views of the Russian ruling elites and the general ly inhabited by indigenous Caucasian peoples condition of the Russian state (the lack of suffi- (Dagestan, Chechnya, Ingushetia, North Ossetia, cient financial means, lack of proper staff, resis- Kabardino-Balkaria, Karachay-Cherkessia, Adyge- tance of the law enforcement structures, dege- ya and Kalmykia) and the Stavropol and Krasno- neration of the state structures, etc.). dar Krais (where Russians are a majority)2. [For detailed characteristics of the republics and krais 5. North Caucasus is a region where many serious see the annex]. problems are concentrated. The future of Russia will depend on their resolution (the Chechen war, North Caucasus is characterised by a multitude other ethnic and religious conflicts, rapid growth and complexity of problems and conflicts exist- of non-Russian and Muslim population, decreasing ing there. They overlap, interweave and create number of ethnic Russians, etc.). So long as Mos- a difficult to describe complicated network. Often, cow is unable to resolve them, Russia will be an sources of one conflict can be found in another, unpredictable and instable country, in danger of and solution to a given problem is impossible terrorism and convulsed by internal conflicts. without finding a way out from another. For Unless the Kremlin copes with the issue of Cau- instance, it is impossible to analyse the internal casus, it will not be possible for Russia to enter situation in Dagestan or Ingushetia without con- on the path of democratic reform, to make the sidering the situation in Chechnya; likewise it is attempt to create a modern country, open to glo- difficult to understand the ethnic problems of bal cooperation. Caucasus is today a source of the region without analysing the socioeconomic CES Studies situation. Therefore, to understand the complex rillas, who were supported by local civilians, and situation in the entire North Caucasus and to iden- the war was unpopular among the Russian pub- tify the sources of instability there, it is necessary lic; therefore president Boris Yeltsin, who was to systematise the problems which we have to seeking re-election, decided to conduct peace deal with and to briefly describe each of them. negotiations with the separatist leaders. Under the accords signed in Khasavyurt on 31 August 1. The war in Chechnya 1996, Chechnya gained real independence (the status of the republic was supposed to be deter- The most serious problem of the region is the mined during bilateral negotiations until 2001), military conflict in Chechnya, lasting since the the federal troops were withdrawn from the re- early 90’s, the consequences of which affect not public and the power was again taken over by only North Caucasus but also Russia as a whole. the separatists4. The Chechen war is a conflict between the me- tropolis and the periphery aspiring to indepen- In January 1997 presidential election was held in dence (for this reason it is often referred to as an Chechnya. The winner was the Chechen chief of anti-colonial war), which has risen out of the staff Aslan Maskhadov5. The period of the second still remembered bitter events of the past (the quasi-independence of Chechnya (1996–1999), conquest of Chechnya by Russia in the 19th cen- during which the authorities in Grozny were tury, the Tsarist and Soviet repressions aimed awkwardly trying to lay the foundations for the against Chechens, etc.). To justify its policy of Chechen state, was characterised by a constantly force in the republic, the Kremlin attempts to worsening internal chaos. The mass unemploy- place the events in Chechnya in the context of ment, the material and moral consequences of 45 fight against international terrorism, while in the war, the lack of any external support; all this fact the source and main reason for the conflict led to unprecedented increase in organised crime is the Chechen separatism, the striving of (kidnappings for ransom, illegal trade in oil, guns, Chechens to leave the Russian Federation and drugs, etc.), and the weakness of the central create a state of their own. authorities contributed to the internal anarchy. Quite soon a strong Islamic opposition grew in 1.1. The conflict in 1991–1999 Chechnya (its leaders being Shamil Basayev, North Caucasus: the Gordian Russian knot The conflict broke out in autumn 1990, when the Movladi Udugov and Zelimkhan Yandarbiyev), delegates gathered at the 1st Congress of the Che- which, from 1998, started making demands for chen Nation announced separation of Chechnya Maskhadov’s stepping down as president and from the USSR and proclaimed its independence. transformation of the republic into an Islamic A year later (August 1991), the so-called Chechen state. The crisis in the republic reached its cli- revolution broke out (the abolishment of the com- max in spring 1999, when the so-called Congress munist authorities in Grozny by supporters of in- of the Peoples of Chechnya and Dagestan was dependence), during which gen.