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Home , Arctic ice pack, Caspian Sea

By Lawson W. Brigham

ThinkingThinking aboutabout thethe ’sArctic’s Future:Future: ScenariosScenarios forfor 20402040

MIKE DUNN / NOAA CLIMATE PROGRAM OFFICE, NABOS 2006 EXPEDITION

The warming of the Arctic could These changes have profound con- ing in each of the four scenarios. mean more circumpolar sequences for the indigenous people, • Transportation systems, espe- for all Arctic species and , cially increases in marine and air transportation and access for and for any anticipated economic access. the rest of the world—but also development. The Arctic is also un- • Resource development—for ex- an increased likelihood of derstood to be a large storehouse of ample, oil and gas, , fish- yet-untapped natural resources, a eries, freshwater, and forestry. overexploited natural situation that is changing rapidly as • Indigenous Arctic peoples— resources and surges of exploration and development accel- their economic status and the im- environmental refugees. erate in places like the Russian pacts of change on their well-being. Arctic. • Regional environmental degra- The combination of these two ma- dation and environmental protection The Arctic is undergoing an jor forces—intense schemes. extraordinary transformation early and increasing natural-resource de- • The and other co- in the twenty-first century—a trans- velopment—can transform this once- operative arrangements of the Arctic formation that will have global im- remote area into a new of im- states and those of the regional and pacts. Temperatures in the Arctic are portance to the global economy. To local governments. rising at unprecedented rates and evaluate the potential impacts of • Overall geopolitical issues fac- are likely to continue increasing such rapid changes, we turn to the ing the region, such as the Law of throughout the century. scenario-development process, the the and boundary disputes. Significant environmental changes creation of plausible futures to en- in the region include retreating sea hance a dialogue among a multitude Scenario One: ice, melting glaciers, thawing perma- of stakeholders and decision makers. Globalized Frontier frost, increasing coastal erosion, and The key themes providing the shifting vegetation zones. The Arctic framework for the four Arctic In this first scenario, the Arctic in could even be temporarily scenarios posed for 2040 include: 2040 has become an integral compo- ice-free during summer 2040, pre- • Global climate change, which nent of the global economic system. dicts one recent study. results in significant regional warm- Formerly a hinterland, the region

©2007 World Future Society • 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, MD 20814, U.S.A. • All rights reserved.

THE FUTURIST September-October 2007 www.wfs.org 27 KAREN FREY, UCLA / COURTESY OF NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION has rapidly been drawn into the globalization age. Abundant natural resources, a less-harsh climate, mostly sparse populations, and a geography permitting shorter global air and sea routes between and have been criti- cal factors influencing the Arctic’s development. The Arctic remains a bellwether for global environmental change, because the manifestations of global warming are amplified in the high latitudes. The Arctic’s dramatic envi- ronmental changes include the shrinking and thinning of and significant thawing of perma- frost in the Russian Arctic, , and northern of . Arctic sea ice disappeared com- Siberian shrink as the Arctic permafrost beneath them melts. pletely for a two-week period during summer 2040. Such climatic change has had profound and largely unfa- northwest (Barents and Kara The region’s boreal forests, espe- vorable consequences for a majority ), and around coastal Alaska. cially those in subarctic Russia, have of the Arctic’s indigenous peoples. Sensitive nuclear cargoes have been experienced intense harvesting pres- Several coastal communities in transported in summer across the sure. Since 2030, freshwater from the Alaska and Canada have simply between Canadian north has been trans- washed away. and Japan, thereby avoiding ported by from Hudson to The age of polar transportation traditional navigation straits and warmer climates throughout the has arrived, as the Arctic now offers coastal waters where political oppo- world. Tourism is flourishing, and greater access than at any other pe- sition has been intense. The sum of everyone now has access by sea riod in circumpolar history. The these transportation activities has air to the remotest Arctic regions. opening of Russian airspace over the placed unprecedented environmen- has plagued several Arctic early in the twenty-first cen- tal pressures on the entire Arctic. Arctic seas since early in the twenty- tury shortened flights between Rising global prices for oil and first century. The fish stocks of the North America and and have , as well as for key com- Bering and Barents seas have already relieved congestion on trans-Pacific modities such as nickel, copper, zinc, been seriously depleted. The Green- routes. coal, and freshwater, have made Arc- land west coast fishery has been sta- Greater marine access—earlier and tic exploitation eco- bilized, but current fishery revenues longer navigation seasons—has been nomically viable. Oil and gas devel- are far too low to sustain the local achieved throughout the Arctic opments in western , communities. Thus, the Ocean, and commercial shipping has including offshore in the Home Rule Government has pushed steadily increased in , and Kara seas, have been extensive. for increased tourism and further

Satellite images showing minimum levels of Arctic sea ice in the summers of 1979 (left) and 2005 demonstrate warming trend. One result has been increased accessibility of the Arctic for marine transportation. NASA AKER ARCTIC TECHNOLOGY INC., HELSINKI, FINLAND, WWW.AKERARCTIC.FI cal-mile exclusive economic zone around the islands.

Scenario Two: Adaptive Frontier In this scenario, the Arctic in 2040 is being drawn into the globalization era much more slowly than might be anticipated. However, there is sub- stantial international cooperation and harmony among many actors and stakeholders, principally because the circumpolar nations realize they have significant environ- mental, social, and economic inter- ests and responsibilities in the Arctic. The indigenous organizations around the Arctic have a much higher profile and significant influ- ence over decisions related to regional environmental protection and economic development. The Arctic continues as a key indi- cator of global climate change. The Arctic Express breaks through ice. The Arctic-going container ship was built by Fin- Greenhouse gas emissions have re- land’s Aker Arctic Technology Inc. for the Russian company MMC Norilsk Nickel mained relatively high, and the re- Group. Both transportation and resource exploitation could increase in the future as climate sulting impacts on the Arctic by 2040 change opens up the Arctic to increased development. are widespread and serious. Visible effects of decades of warming—on land and sea—are observed over increased royalties by extending industrialization. Environmental large expanses of the Arctic. mineral rights to commercial firms concerns that once fostered circum- A full-scale assault on Arctic oil for tracts in Greenland’s ex- polar cooperation have been super- and gas has not yet materialized. clusive economic zone. seded by economic and social inter- World prices have risen, but not With growing industrial activity in ests, often driven by the private enough for all regions of the Arctic the Arctic has come the specter of a sector. Issues involving the freedom to be competitive. New develop- major environmental disaster or of navigation and commercial access ments in the Caspian Sea, offshore emergency situation. Well-worn oil throughout the remain Sakhalin Island, and in deep waters and gas pipelines in highly contentious. The eight perma- have generally met global energy de- and Alaska have experienced recur- nent member states of the Arctic mand. While northwest Russia and ring, serious spills, and new Council have increasingly excluded pipelines have been built. No large outside participation in the Council’s continued on page 31 marine spills have occurred, but deliberations. serious ice damage to many The protection, de- FRANCOIS LENOIR / REUTERS PHOTO ARCHIVE / NEWSCOM operating in the Arctic has reawak- velopment, and govern- ened public interest in an enforce- ance of Svalbard have able Arctic marine environmental been a particularly protection regime. vexing problem, as By 2020, five Arctic coastal states other nations (many (Canada, Denmark [Greenland], outside the Svalbard Norway, Russia, and the United Treaty) and several States) have asserted their sover- international consor- eignty over resources of the seabed tiums believe they beyond 200 nautical miles. Only two have a stake in the is- small regions in the central Arctic lands’ potential re- Ocean remain under international source exploitation. jurisdiction. Russia continues to Long-term sustainable develop- complicate the politics Russian man walks past a bust of Lenin in Svalbard. ment initiatives of the Arctic Council of Svalbard by not rec- Though the islands are governed by Norway, Svalbard is have come under considerable strain ognizing Norway’s largely settled by Russians, who dispute Norway’s claims of with the onslaught of recent Arctic claim of a 200-nauti- exclusive fishing rights.

THE FUTURIST September-October 2007 www.wfs.org 29 Four Scenarios for the Arctic

In all four scenarios, the Arctic remains a bellwether of climate change, as global warming is amplified in the highest latitudes. In 2040, the Arctic Ocean could even be ice-free for a short period in summer. The Arctic’s vast natural resources are experiencing unprecedented PHOTOS.COM development. Here is how other key issue areas fare in the four scenarios.

DAVID FORCUCCI / USCGC HEALY

Globalized Frontier Adaptive Frontier

Transportation Earlier and longer navigation sea- Air and marine transportation has sons throughout Arctic Ocean greatly expanded but under stricter increase commercial shipping. New international regulation for environ- polar air routes dramatically increase mental protection and safety. cargo and passenger loads.

Resource Rising prices globally for commodi- “Assault” on Arctic resources has not Development ties increase exploitation of Arctic re- materialized, constrained by inter- sources such as nickel, copper, coal, national agreements such as strict and freshwater, as well as oil and harvesting quotas for fisheries. Sus- gas. Overfishing is serious problem. tainable development is widely em- TRYM IVAR BERGSMO / WWW.POLARYEAR.NO braced by most stakeholders.

Well-Being of While global warming has caused Indigenous organizations have a Indigenous some coastal communities to wash greater say in environmental and Population away, commercial opportunities economic development decision brighten prospects for Arctic indige- making. Flourishing year-round nous workers, reversing exodus of tourism industry expands opportuni- Arctic workers following the collapse ties. of the .

Regional Increased industrial activity puts the Environmental protection as an im- Arctic region as a whole at greater perative is widely held among all DAVID FORCUCCI / USCGC HEALY Environmental Protection risk for major environmental catas- stakeholders, and emergency plan- trophe, such as spills and leaks from ning is proactive. The Arctic region aging oil and gas pipelines. Ice dam- has become a model for habitat pro- age to ships reawakens public inter- tection. est in marine environmental protec- tion.

Regional Economic interests related to indus- Private–public sponsorship aims to Governance and trialization have become more com- protect unique natural resources and Cooperation pelling—and contentious—and have to balance economic and environ- put environmental issues on the back mental needs. burner for the Arctic Council.

30 THE FUTURIST September-October 2007 www.wfs.org continued from page 29

the Alaskan Arctic have witnessed expanded oil and gas development, the Canadian Arctic and offshore have experienced only minimal investment. European PHOTOS.COM MARK IVEY / SANDIA NATIONAL LABORATORIES Union funding has helped Russia re- pair its Siberian pipeline infra- structure and fix its serious spill problems. Transportation systems are more robust in the Arctic than ever before. Polar air routes are thriving, as in the Fortress Frontier Equitable Frontier Globalized Frontier scenario, but international accords have controlled aircraft emissions, limiting their im- Marine and air access through the Transportation is a key Arctic indus- pacts on the Arctic atmosphere. Arctic is tightly controlled and periodi- try, and a fivefold increase in regional Warming climates have fostered cally suspended for foreign ships and marine commerce offsets a modest development of an aquaculture in- aircraft, partly in retaliation against reduction in air freight on polar dustry in Arctic coastal areas. Com- other non-Arctic states’ actions else- routes. Stringent regulation empha- mercially viable fishing has contin- where in the world. Cargo movement sizes environmental protection of key ued in the Arctic marginal seas, and is disrupted. routes. a total collapse of any single fishery has been averted using stringent har- vesting quotas and other bilateral Arctic states “jealously” guard natural Sustainable practices benefit fishing, agreements. resources to prevent uncontrolled forestry, and herding, while Arctic tourism has flourished, and access by global community; e.g., oil production plummets. Clean fresh- effective regulations have been is- fishing rights to all but the Arctic water from the Arctic has become a sued by , Svalbard, , states have been suspended. valuable global commodity. and Greenland for managing the thousands of Arctic tourists who now travel north in all seasons. The Arctic Council has proven to Many indigenous peoples are dis- Poverty among indigenous peoples be a proactive forum resolving sev- placed from their traditional home- has been reduced due to revenue eral disputes regarding Svalbard and lands due to extreme environmental sharing from industries such as effectively engaging Arctic indige- events. Though economically im- tourism, transportation, and minerals nous peoples in all deliberations. proved, life is unstable as illegal im- extraction. Much has been accomplished, de- migration becomes a major problem. spite intense pressure from outside governments (who believe the United Nations should have a greater role in Arctic affairs) and Sustainable development has largely New areas are added to existing Arc- from several nongovernmental or- disappeared as economic and secu- tic national parks, enhancing both the ganizations (who want much of the rity concerns take precedence. environment and the tourism industry. Arctic to be a wilderness area with a moratorium on further develop- ment). Arctic contingency planning for environmental (man-made) and nat- emergencies is advanced and well coordinated. Multinational re- sponse teams, jointly funded by pri- The Arctic Council remains strong but The Arctic Council promotes a vision vate and public sources, have been focused on making the region more of social equity and environmental established and operational exercises independent and exclusionary—a po- well-being; military presence is low, conducted in sea ice and permafrost. sition largely unchallenged by the yet security is high because tensions Arctic Council and Northern Fo- global community due to the Arctic’s among the Arctic states is virtually rum initiatives have also positioned collective economic and military nonexistent. the Arctic as a model region for habi- strength. tat protection. Policies and funding mechanisms have been designed to

THE FUTURIST September-October 2007 www.wfs.org 31 U.S. NAVY PHOTO BY PHOTOGRAPHER’S MATE SECOND CLASS STEVEN H. VANDERWERFF GLENN WILLIAMS / TUSK RESEARCH, COURTESY OF NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION

Arctic hunter in Alaska. The future well-being of indigenous Arctic peoples and cultures may be affected by changes in Scientists with U.S. Office of Naval Research study Arctic Ocean the region’s relationship with the rest of the world, suggests currents and their potential effects on the Arctic ice pack. author Brigham. support joint, private–public spon- observed anywhere in the Arctic World access to the Arctic region’s sorship of unique natural reserves. Ocean during September of the past resources is tightly controlled. Fish- Despite significant transportation two years. ing rights have been suspended to and resources development pres- Many Arctic indigenous popula- all but the Arctic states: Japan, for sures, Arctic national parks have ex- tions have been displaced from their example, has been excluded from panded modestly and been adapted traditional homelands due to ex- fishing in the for the first to deal with increased tourism. treme environmental events. Al- time in 70 years and seeks redress. though many people living in the Since 2020, oil and gas exploration Scenario Three: Fortress Frontier Arctic have gained a measure of eco- and production efforts have intensi- nomic independence, their existence fied in the Barents, Kara, and Cana- Widespread resource exploitation has nonetheless become unstable. dian Beaufort seas. These new flows and increased international tension For the first time in history, illegal will meet increased U.S. and exist throughout the Arctic in this immigration into many subarctic re- European demands as decreased im- scenario. The Arctic is viewed by gions is a reality. law enforce- ports are coming from the Middle much of the global community as a ment officials in the eight Arctic East. Hard rock mineral production storehouse of natural riches that is states acknowledge that their north- from mines in Arctic Canada and being jealously guarded and devel- ern territories are very vulnerable to Greenland has also been rejuve- oped by a handful of wealthy cir- massive influxes of environmental nated. Technological advances have cumpolar nations. Preventing uncon- refugees and economic migrants. made offshore Arctic drilling safer trolled access to these vital resources, Air and marine transportation and more efficient, and significant especially oil and natural gas, has routes in the Arctic remain open to new drilling is being conducted off become an obsession for all Arctic world fleets in 2040, but foreign air- Alaska. stakeholders. The Arctic is a part of craft and ship access has been peri- Svalbard has become a source of the global economic system, but any odically suspended. Russia has de- potential conflict over access to liv- linkage is orchestrated or dictated by nied polar access to its airspace as ing and nonliving resources. A ma- the most powerful Arctic states. retaliation against states’ actions jority of states believe the 1920 Treaty The Arctic is undergoing extreme elsewhere in the world; global air of Spitsbergen is no longer operative. environmental stress as global cargo flows have been seriously dis- Norway, with assistance from the warming continues unabated. rupted without a polar network. and Russia, has Greenhouse gas emissions have been Russia and Canada continue to increased military forces in the unleashed globally at unprecedented tightly control marine access region. rates; the result has been massive through the Northern Sea Route and The Arctic Council remains, but it permafrost thawing (and disappear- . Both countries is an entirely different forum than ance), rapid glacial retreat in Green- have allowed non-Arctic class originally envisioned. Any notion of land and Canada, extensive coastal tankers to make open water transits sustainable development has disap- shore erosion, and a historic retreat for the export of oil and gas to world peared, and environmental issues of Arctic sea ice in all marginal seas markets. This newfound flexibility in have taken a backseat to economic and the central Arctic Ocean. Multi- the navigation and environmental and security concerns. The United year sea ice—that is, ice that survives safety regulations has been applied States and Russia, thought to be the summer melt season—has disap- when significant economic gain is leaving the group in 2020, have peared, as no Arctic sea ice has been anticipated from major exports. found the Council useful in arguing

32 THE FUTURIST September-October 2007 www.wfs.org collective security, combating mass migration, and orchestrating the Assessing the Impacts of Arctic Climate Change flow of exports from the Arctic con- sortium. The Council’s avowed long- A major report on Arctic climate observed around the entire Arctic term strategy has been to make the change was released in 2004 by basin, and Arctic coastal commu- circumpolar states less dependent on the eight-nation Arctic Council. nities are literally eroding into the natural resources from outside the The report, Impacts of a Warming sea. Arctic. Few in the global community Arctic: Arctic Climate Impact Assess- •Arctic warming increases gla- have directly challenged this exclu- ment (ACIA), captured global at- cial melt and river runoff, adding sionary strategy because of the col- tention and wide media coverage, freshwater to the and po- lective economic and military as it was the world’s first compre- tentially influencing global ocean strength of the United States, hensive, regional review of the circulation. Canada, and Russia. impacts of climate change. •Melting of the Arctic’s highly Arctic tourism continues to grow, Several hundred Arctic re- reflective and sea ice uncov- since many other traditional tourist searchers worked for four years to ers darker land and ocean sur- destinations are experiencing tur- produce this fully referenced and faces. This change perversely moil and a shortage of the necessities independently reviewed scientific increases absorption of the sun’s of life. The view is that the Arctic is a evaluation of Arctic climate heat and further warms the Arctic safe place with a more hospitable cli- change and its impacts that affect and the planet. mate and with ready access to all the not only the Arctic region, but the • Reductions in Arctic sea ice region’s natural wonders. Tourism entire planet. Important to ACIA will drastically shrink marine has become an economic boon to lo- was the inclusion of special habitats for polar bears, ice seals, cal communities, particularly those knowledge of the indigenous and some seabirds, potentially in Arctic Russia, and has alleviated people throughout the Arctic. pushing some species toward ex- some pressure on regional fisheries. Among the key findings of the tinction. Early in the twenty-first century report: •Arctic warming is very likely the five Arctic coastal states declared •Climate change intensely to alter the release and uptake of their sovereignty over resources of affects the Arctic, where the aver- greenhouse gases (such as the Arctic seabed beyond 200 nauti- age temperature has risen at about methane and carbon dioxide) cal miles to the edge of the continen- twice the rate of the rest of the from Arctic soils and sediments. tal shelf extensions. In 2030, the two planet. Boreal forests and arctic small regions that remained within • The Arctic is experiencing contain some of the world’s international jurisdiction were uni- widespread melting of glaciers largest land-based stores of car- laterally placed by the Arctic Council and sea ice and rising tempera- bon. under strict Arctic environmental tures of the permafrost (frozen More information about this protection measures, with marine ground). During the past 30 years, compelling and historic study of access tightly controlled. Total domi- the annual sea ice extent has de- the Arctic may be obtained from nance over the Arctic Ocean has thus creased by about 8%—nearly the Arctic Monitoring and Assess- been achieved by a handful of Arctic 385,100 square miles. ment Program, www.amap.no. states—the epitome of fortress men- • Severe coastal erosion is being —Lawson W. Brigham tality!

Scenario Four: Equitable Frontier able development issues and regional mentation of these strategies in cases In this scenario, the Arctic remains disputes. where change has seriously im- integrated with the global economic While the International Global Cli- pacted indigenous communities. system in 2040, but the evolving mate Treaty has resulted in sizable Transportation (air and sea) is a international sustainability para- and continuing reductions in green- key Arctic industry that not only digm has altered the region’s devel- house gas emissions, these changes links the region with global trade, opment strategy to one emphasizing have had little immediate impact on but also generates considerable rev- gradualism. Resource exploitation the Arctic. Eight decades of unprece- enues for the Arctic states. Since such as fishing is a given (not an op- dented regional warming have taken 2030, there has been a modest reduc- tion) in much of the Arctic, but such their toll on the . Thus, a tion in air freight on polar routes, commercial activities are being tem- comprehensive set of adaptive strate- and a fivefold increase in shipping pered by greater consideration of gies has evolved to take into account around the Arctic basin. The exten- broad social and environmental con- such regional changes as thinner sive seven-month summer naviga- cerns. Mutual respect and co- permafrost layers, an elevated sea tion season made possible by envi- operation among the circumpolar level, and longer seasons of open ronmental changes has enabled the nations are the norm. The Arctic water normally covered by Arctic sea growth of international transits on governance system is viewed as a ice. Transport user fees and other the Northern Sea Route and North- model for resolving complex sustain- eco-taxes have funded the imple- west Passage. This has enabled great

THE FUTURIST September-October 2007 www.wfs.org 33 savings in ship time and fuel for se- in the Arctic has plummeted, but Arctic Ocean seabed by the five Arc- lect cargoes. Canada and Russia natural gas continues to flow from tic coastal states (Canada, Denmark have maintained their stringent western Siberia to Europe. The Bar- [Greenland], Norway, Russia, and marine regulatory regimes that em- ents Euro-Arctic Council, exhibiting the United States)—a trend that will phasize environmental protection. regional solidarity, has funded envi- surely drive regional geopolitics. Despite differences over freedom ronmental cleanup in much of the •Key boundary disputes between of navigation issues, the United old oil–gas pipeline corridor through the Arctic states—between the States, Canada, and Russia have ne- northwest Russia. United States and Canada, between gotiated an agreement that allows Clean freshwater has become a Canada and Denmark, and between ships a seamless voyage around valuable global commodity due to Russia and Norway—continue to be Alaska and through the routes under its scarcity and chronic shortage in unresolved, vexing issues. a uniform set of operational proce- many regions of the world. How to • Future ships voyaging into the dures. Regional (multinational) dis- distribute and market the vast quan- Arctic Ocean could bring alien aster teams have been created under tities of freshwater from the Arctic species in their ballast water and the Arctic Council to respond to and subarctic has been a consuming increase air emissions into the cooler maritime or other emergencies. vision for many. Russia and Canada surface atmosphere of the Arctic. Boundary disputes in the Barents have developed plans for pipelines •A future “Global Climate (between Norway and Russia) and to carry water south from their Treaty” might slow climate warm- Beaufort (between the United States northern territories. In several exper- ing, but by how much? It is plausible and Canada) seas have been re- imental voyages, tankers have car- that the relentless loss of Arctic sea solved. The Treaty of Spitsbergen ried water from ports in Greenland ice and glacial ice, observed during (1920) has been reaffirmed by the and Canada to the , recent decades, might continue and International Court of Justice and its Japan, and the Mediterranean. possibly accelerate. terms accepted by the global com- A steady growth in Arctic tourism The Arctic is a complex but rela- munity. Fishing rights off Svalbard continues, prompting national and tively small region of Planet . and in specific areas of the Barents regional parliaments to establish ad- Impacted heavily by global climate and Bering seas have been allocated ditional wilderness lands and scien- change and being viewed by many to a group of developing nations. tific () reserves and to as a region of vast and now acces- Social well-being and quality of add areas to existing Arctic national sible natural resources, there can be life in the Arctic has been trans- parks. To enhance environmental little doubt that extraordinary formed: Poverty has been reduced protections, the international Arctic change is coming to the entire region thanks to revenue sharing from Tourism Commission has developed and its people. These four scenarios tourism, transport, and minerals ex- access guidelines, established an of the Arctic in 2040 are designed to traction (fees mostly from trans- Arctic surcharge or fee structure, and be provocative but plausible. Hope- national corporations), which has advocated a moratorium on wilder- fully, they will stimulate strategic created sustainable incomes and ness adventures. thought and rational discussion helped develop affordable housing. Although the Arctic is no utopia in about how the Arctic region should By 2040, only a few pockets of the Equitable Frontier scenario, the evolve throughout the twenty-first poverty remain in the remotest re- Arctic Council can take much credit century. ■ gions of the Russian north. for fostering a vision and focus on The University of the Arctic, pio- social equity and environmental About the Author neered using the Internet in 2001, well-being. There is a low military Lawson W. Brigham is has brought quality education to presence in the region, and tension Alaska Office Director of the within easy reach of all northern among the eight Arctic states is al- U.S. Arctic Research Com- mission and a former chief citizens. The Arctic Council has bro- most nonexistent. The Arctic Council of strategic planning for the kered an agreement among Canada, has shown regional solidarity and U.S. . He may Russia, and the UN High Commis- foresight in engaging the rest of the be contacted at 420 L sion for Refugees to allow settlement planet on vexing problems such as Street, Suite 315, Anchorage, Alaska of 30,000 environmental refugees in refugees, transborder pollution, and 99501-1971. E-mail [email protected]. subarctic territories. Future Arctic re- access to living and nonliving re- The scenarios expressed in this article location programs are being studied sources by developing nations. are the sole responsibility of the author and by a human rights team headed by do not reflect the views of the Commission. A longer version of this article appears in the president of Iceland. Conclusion: Arctic Prospects Arctic and subarctic fishing, the World Future Society’s 2007 conference volume, Hopes and Visions for the 21st forestry, and reindeer herding have The above four scenarios offer a Century, edited by Timothy C. Mack (WFS, been conducted using successful structure for thinking about the Arc- 2007, $29.95. Order at www.wfs.org). sustainable practices for nearly two tic’s future and its global impacts. decades. Reindeer herding has also There are also many intriguing wild- benefited (and grown) as the warmer card issues that should be FEEDBACK: Send your comments climate results in more robust and anticipated, such as: about this article to [email protected]. larger grazing lands. Oil production • The continued enclosure of the

34 THE FUTURIST September-October 2007 www.wfs.org