By Lawson W. Brigham ThinkingThinking aboutabout thethe Arctic’sArctic’s Future:Future: ScenariosScenarios forfor 20402040 MIKE DUNN / NOAA CLIMATE PROGRAM OFFICE, NABOS 2006 EXPEDITION The warming of the Arctic could These changes have profound con- ing in each of the four scenarios. mean more circumpolar sequences for the indigenous people, • Transportation systems, espe- for all Arctic species and ecosystems, cially increases in marine and air transportation and access for and for any anticipated economic access. the rest of the world—but also development. The Arctic is also un- • Resource development—for ex- an increased likelihood of derstood to be a large storehouse of ample, oil and gas, minerals, fish- yet-untapped natural resources, a eries, freshwater, and forestry. overexploited natural situation that is changing rapidly as • Indigenous Arctic peoples— resources and surges of exploration and development accel- their economic status and the im- environmental refugees. erate in places like the Russian pacts of change on their well-being. Arctic. • Regional environmental degra- The combination of these two ma- dation and environmental protection The Arctic is undergoing an jor forces—intense climate change schemes. extraordinary transformation early and increasing natural-resource de- • The Arctic Council and other co- in the twenty-first century—a trans- velopment—can transform this once- operative arrangements of the Arctic formation that will have global im- remote area into a new region of im- states and those of the regional and pacts. Temperatures in the Arctic are portance to the global economy. To local governments. rising at unprecedented rates and evaluate the potential impacts of • Overall geopolitical issues fac- are likely to continue increasing such rapid changes, we turn to the ing the region, such as the Law of throughout the century. scenario-development process, the the Sea and boundary disputes. Significant environmental changes creation of plausible futures to en- in the region include retreating sea hance a dialogue among a multitude Scenario One: ice, melting glaciers, thawing perma- of stakeholders and decision makers. Globalized Frontier frost, increasing coastal erosion, and The key themes providing the shifting vegetation zones. The Arctic framework for the four Arctic In this first scenario, the Arctic in Ocean could even be temporarily scenarios posed for 2040 include: 2040 has become an integral compo- ice-free during summer 2040, pre- • Global climate change, which nent of the global economic system. dicts one recent study. results in significant regional warm- Formerly a hinterland, the region ©2007 World Future Society • 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, MD 20814, U.S.A. • All rights reserved. THE FUTURIST September-October 2007 www.wfs.org 27 KAREN FREY, UCLA / COURTESY OF NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION has rapidly been drawn into the globalization age. Abundant natural resources, a less-harsh climate, mostly sparse populations, and a geography permitting shorter global air and sea routes between North America and Eurasia have been criti- cal factors influencing the Arctic’s development. The Arctic remains a bellwether for global environmental change, because the manifestations of global warming are amplified in the high latitudes. The Arctic’s dramatic envi- ronmental changes include the shrinking and thinning of sea ice and significant thawing of perma- frost in the Russian Arctic, Alaska, and northern regions of Canada. Arctic sea ice disappeared com- Siberian lakes shrink as the Arctic permafrost beneath them melts. pletely for a two-week period during summer 2040. Such climatic change has had profound and largely unfa- northwest Russia (Barents and Kara The region’s boreal forests, espe- vorable consequences for a majority seas), and around coastal Alaska. cially those in subarctic Russia, have of the Arctic’s indigenous peoples. Sensitive nuclear cargoes have been experienced intense harvesting pres- Several coastal communities in transported in summer across the sure. Since 2030, freshwater from the Alaska and Canada have simply Northern Sea Route between Europe Canadian north has been trans- washed away. and Japan, thereby avoiding ported by ship from Hudson Bay to The age of polar transportation traditional navigation straits and warmer climates throughout the has arrived, as the Arctic now offers coastal waters where political oppo- world. Tourism is flourishing, and greater access than at any other pe- sition has been intense. The sum of everyone now has access by sea or riod in circumpolar history. The these transportation activities has air to the remotest Arctic regions. opening of Russian airspace over the placed unprecedented environmen- Overfishing has plagued several Arctic early in the twenty-first cen- tal pressures on the entire Arctic. Arctic seas since early in the twenty- tury shortened flights between Rising global prices for oil and first century. The fish stocks of the North America and Asia and have natural gas, as well as for key com- Bering and Barents seas have already relieved congestion on trans-Pacific modities such as nickel, copper, zinc, been seriously depleted. The Green- routes. coal, and freshwater, have made Arc- land west coast fishery has been sta- Greater marine access—earlier and tic natural resource exploitation eco- bilized, but current fishery revenues longer navigation seasons—has been nomically viable. Oil and gas devel- are far too low to sustain the local achieved throughout the Arctic opments in western Siberia, communities. Thus, the Greenland Ocean, and commercial shipping has including offshore in the Pechora Home Rule Government has pushed steadily increased in Hudson Bay, and Kara seas, have been extensive. for increased tourism and further Satellite images showing minimum levels of Arctic sea ice in the summers of 1979 (left) and 2005 demonstrate warming trend. One result has been increased accessibility of the Arctic for marine transportation. NASA AKER ARCTIC TECHNOLOGY INC., HELSINKI, FINLAND, WWW.AKERARCTIC.FI cal-mile exclusive economic zone around the islands. Scenario Two: Adaptive Frontier In this scenario, the Arctic in 2040 is being drawn into the globalization era much more slowly than might be anticipated. However, there is sub- stantial international cooperation and harmony among many actors and stakeholders, principally because the circumpolar nations realize they have significant environ- mental, social, and economic inter- ests and responsibilities in the Arctic. The indigenous organizations around the Arctic have a much higher profile and significant influ- ence over decisions related to regional environmental protection and economic development. The Arctic continues as a key indi- cator of global climate change. The Arctic Express breaks through ice. The Arctic-going container ship was built by Fin- Greenhouse gas emissions have re- land’s Aker Arctic Technology Inc. for the Russian mineral company MMC Norilsk Nickel mained relatively high, and the re- Group. Both transportation and resource exploitation could increase in the future as climate sulting impacts on the Arctic by 2040 change opens up the Arctic to increased development. are widespread and serious. Visible effects of decades of warming—on land and sea—are observed over increased royalties by extending industrialization. Environmental large expanses of the Arctic. mineral rights to commercial firms concerns that once fostered circum- A full-scale assault on Arctic oil for seabed tracts in Greenland’s ex- polar cooperation have been super- and gas has not yet materialized. clusive economic zone. seded by economic and social inter- World prices have risen, but not With growing industrial activity in ests, often driven by the private enough for all regions of the Arctic the Arctic has come the specter of a sector. Issues involving the freedom to be competitive. New develop- major environmental disaster or of navigation and commercial access ments in the Caspian Sea, offshore emergency situation. Well-worn oil throughout the Arctic Ocean remain Sakhalin Island, and in deep waters and gas pipelines in western Siberia highly contentious. The eight perma- have generally met global energy de- and Alaska have experienced recur- nent member states of the Arctic mand. While northwest Russia and ring, serious spills, and new Council have increasingly excluded pipelines have been built. No large outside participation in the Council’s continued on page 31 marine spills have occurred, but deliberations. serious ice damage to many ships The protection, de- FRANCOIS LENOIR / REUTERS PHOTO ARCHIVE / NEWSCOM operating in the Arctic has reawak- velopment, and govern- ened public interest in an enforce- ance of Svalbard have able Arctic marine environmental been a particularly protection regime. vexing problem, as By 2020, five Arctic coastal states other nations (many (Canada, Denmark [Greenland], outside the Svalbard Norway, Russia, and the United Treaty) and several States) have asserted their sover- international consor- eignty over resources of the seabed tiums believe they beyond 200 nautical miles. Only two have a stake in the is- small regions in the central Arctic lands’ potential re- Ocean remain under international source exploitation. jurisdiction. Russia continues to Long-term sustainable develop- complicate the politics Russian man walks past a bust of Lenin in Svalbard. ment initiatives of the Arctic Council of Svalbard by not rec- Though the