Interannual Variability in Transpolar Drift Ice Thickness and Potential Impact of Atlantification
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Northern Sea Route Cargo Flows and Infrastructure- Present State And
Northern Sea Route Cargo Flows and Infrastructure – Present State and Future Potential By Claes Lykke Ragner FNI Report 13/2000 FRIDTJOF NANSENS INSTITUTT THE FRIDTJOF NANSEN INSTITUTE Tittel/Title Sider/Pages Northern Sea Route Cargo Flows and Infrastructure – Present 124 State and Future Potential Publikasjonstype/Publication Type Nummer/Number FNI Report 13/2000 Forfatter(e)/Author(s) ISBN Claes Lykke Ragner 82-7613-400-9 Program/Programme ISSN 0801-2431 Prosjekt/Project Sammendrag/Abstract The report assesses the Northern Sea Route’s commercial potential and economic importance, both as a transit route between Europe and Asia, and as an export route for oil, gas and other natural resources in the Russian Arctic. First, it conducts a survey of past and present Northern Sea Route (NSR) cargo flows. Then follow discussions of the route’s commercial potential as a transit route, as well as of its economic importance and relevance for each of the Russian Arctic regions. These discussions are summarized by estimates of what types and volumes of NSR cargoes that can realistically be expected in the period 2000-2015. This is then followed by a survey of the status quo of the NSR infrastructure (above all the ice-breakers, ice-class cargo vessels and ports), with estimates of its future capacity. Based on the estimated future NSR cargo potential, future NSR infrastructure requirements are calculated and compared with the estimated capacity in order to identify the main, future infrastructure bottlenecks for NSR operations. The information presented in the report is mainly compiled from data and research results that were published through the International Northern Sea Route Programme (INSROP) 1993-99, but considerable updates have been made using recent information, statistics and analyses from various sources. -
A Spatial Evaluation of Arctic Sea Ice and Regional Limitations in CMIP6 Historical Simulations
1AUGUST 2021 W A T T S E T A L . 6399 A Spatial Evaluation of Arctic Sea Ice and Regional Limitations in CMIP6 Historical Simulations a a a a MATTHEW WATTS, WIESLAW MASLOWSKI, YOUNJOO J. LEE, JACLYN CLEMENT KINNEY, AND b ROBERT OSINSKI a Department of Oceanography, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California b Institute of Oceanology of Polish Academy of Sciences, Sopot, Poland (Manuscript received 29 June 2020, in final form 28 April 2021) ABSTRACT: The Arctic sea ice response to a warming climate is assessed in a subset of models participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), using several metrics in comparison with satellite observations and results from the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System and the Regional Arctic System Model. Our study examines the historical representation of sea ice extent, volume, and thickness using spatial analysis metrics, such as the integrated ice edge error, Brier score, and spatial probability score. We find that the CMIP6 multimodel mean captures the mean annual cycle and 1979–2014 sea ice trends remarkably well. However, individual models experience a wide range of uncertainty in the spatial distribution of sea ice when compared against satellite measurements and reanalysis data. Our metrics expose common and individual regional model biases, which sea ice temporal analyses alone do not capture. We identify large ice edge and ice thickness errors in Arctic subregions, implying possible model specific limitations in or lack of representation of some key physical processes. We postulate that many of them could be related to the oceanic forcing, especially in the marginal and shelf seas, where seasonal sea ice changes are not adequately simulated. -
Thinking About the Arctic's Future
By Lawson W. Brigham ThinkingThinking aboutabout thethe Arctic’sArctic’s Future:Future: ScenariosScenarios forfor 20402040 MIKE DUNN / NOAA CLIMATE PROGRAM OFFICE, NABOS 2006 EXPEDITION The warming of the Arctic could These changes have profound con- ing in each of the four scenarios. mean more circumpolar sequences for the indigenous people, • Transportation systems, espe- for all Arctic species and ecosystems, cially increases in marine and air transportation and access for and for any anticipated economic access. the rest of the world—but also development. The Arctic is also un- • Resource development—for ex- an increased likelihood of derstood to be a large storehouse of ample, oil and gas, minerals, fish- yet-untapped natural resources, a eries, freshwater, and forestry. overexploited natural situation that is changing rapidly as • Indigenous Arctic peoples— resources and surges of exploration and development accel- their economic status and the im- environmental refugees. erate in places like the Russian pacts of change on their well-being. Arctic. • Regional environmental degra- The combination of these two ma- dation and environmental protection The Arctic is undergoing an jor forces—intense climate change schemes. extraordinary transformation early and increasing natural-resource de- • The Arctic Council and other co- in the twenty-first century—a trans- velopment—can transform this once- operative arrangements of the Arctic formation that will have global im- remote area into a new region of im- states and those of the regional and pacts. Temperatures in the Arctic are portance to the global economy. To local governments. rising at unprecedented rates and evaluate the potential impacts of • Overall geopolitical issues fac- are likely to continue increasing such rapid changes, we turn to the ing the region, such as the Law of throughout the century. -
Russian Museums Visit More Than 80 Million Visitors, 1/3 of Who Are Visitors Under 18
Moscow 4 There are more than 3000 museums (and about 72 000 museum workers) in Russian Moscow region 92 Federation, not including school and company museums. Every year Russian museums visit more than 80 million visitors, 1/3 of who are visitors under 18 There are about 650 individual and institutional members in ICOM Russia. During two last St. Petersburg 117 years ICOM Russia membership was rapidly increasing more than 20% (or about 100 new members) a year Northwestern region 160 You will find the information aboutICOM Russia members in this book. All members (individual and institutional) are divided in two big groups – Museums which are institutional members of ICOM or are represented by individual members and Organizations. All the museums in this book are distributed by regional principle. Organizations are structured in profile groups Central region 192 Volga river region 224 Many thanks to all the museums who offered their help and assistance in the making of this collection South of Russia 258 Special thanks to Urals 270 Museum creation and consulting Culture heritage security in Russia with 3M(tm)Novec(tm)1230 Siberia and Far East 284 © ICOM Russia, 2012 Organizations 322 © K. Novokhatko, A. Gnedovsky, N. Kazantseva, O. Guzewska – compiling, translation, editing, 2012 [email protected] www.icom.org.ru © Leo Tolstoy museum-estate “Yasnaya Polyana”, design, 2012 Moscow MOSCOW A. N. SCRiAbiN MEMORiAl Capital of Russia. Major political, economic, cultural, scientific, religious, financial, educational, and transportation center of Russia and the continent MUSEUM Highlights: First reference to Moscow dates from 1147 when Moscow was already a pretty big town. -
Some Aspects of the Thermal Energy Exchange on the South Polar Snow Field and Arctic Ice Pack'
MAY 1961 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW 173 SOME ASPECTS OF THE THERMAL ENERGY EXCHANGE ON THE SOUTH POLAR SNOW FIELD AND ARCTIC ICE PACK' KIRBY J. HANSON Po!ar Meteorology Research Project, US. Weather Bureau, Washington, D.C. [Manuscript received September 13, 1960; revised February 21, 1961 ] ABSTRACT Solar and terrestrial radiation measurements that were obtained at Amundsen-Scot>t (South Pole) Station and on Ice lsland (Bravo) T-3 are presented for representative summer and winter months. Of the South Polar net radiation loss during April 1958, approximately20 percent of the energy came from the snow and80 percent from the air. The actual atmospheric cooling rate during that period was only about lj6 of the suggested radiative cooling rate. The annual net radiation at various places in Antarctica is presented. During 1058, the South Polar atmos- phere transmitted about 73 percent of the annual extraterrestrial radiation, while at T-3 the Arctic atmosphere transmitted about 56 percent. The albedo of melting sea ice is discussed. Measurements on T-3 during July 1958 indicate that the net radiation is positive on both clear and overcast days but greatest on overcast days. Refreezing of the surface with clear skies, as observed by Untersteiner and Badglep, is discussed. 1. INTRODUCTION Ocean.ThisIsland wasabout by 5 11 miles in size and The elliptical orbit of the earthbrings it about 3 million about 52 meters thick (Crary et al. [2]) in 1953 when it miles farther from the sun at aphelion than at perihelion; drifted near 88' N., looo W. In the years that followed, consequently,during midsummer, about 7 percent less this it drifted southward and in July 1958 was located solar radiation impinges on the top of the Arctic atrnos- 79.5' N., 118' W. -
Updated to the Most Recent the Beginning of Satellite Observations and the Onset Past Month
1 Contents: Page 3: November 2020 global surface air temperature overview Page 4: November 2020 global surface air temperature overview versus November last 10 years Page 5: November 2020 global surface air temperature compared to November 2019 Page 6: Temperature quality class 1: Lower troposphere temperature from satellites Page 7: Temperature quality class 2: HadCRUT global surface air temperature Page 8: Temperature quality class 3: GISS and NCDC global surface air temperature Page 11: Comparing global surface air temperature and satellite-based temperatures Page 12: Global air temperature linear trends Page 13: Global temperatures: All in one, Quality Class 1, 2 and 3 Page 15: Global sea surface temperature Page 18: Ocean temperature in uppermost 100 m Page 20: North Atlantic heat content uppermost 700 m Page 21: North Atlantic temperatures 0-800 m depth along 59N, 30-0W Page 22: Global ocean temperature 0-1900 m depth summary Page 23: Global ocean net temperature change since 2004 at different depths Page 24: La Niña and El Niño episodes Page 25: Troposphere and stratosphere temperatures from satellites 2 Page 26: Zonal lower troposphere temperatures from satellites Page 27: Arctic and Antarctic lower troposphere temperatures from satellites Page 28: Temperature over land versus over oceans Page 29: Arctic and Antarctic surface air temperatures Page 32: Arctic and Antarctic sea ice Page 36: Sea level in general Page 36: Global sea level from satellite altimetry Page 38: Global sea level from tide gauges Page 39: Snow cover; Northern Hemisphere weekly and seasonal Page 41: Atmospheric specific humidity Page 42: Atmospheric CO2 Page 43: Relation between annual change of atm. -
Downloaded 10/01/21 10:31 PM UTC 874 JOURNAL of CLIMATE VOLUME 12
MARCH 1999 VAVRUS 873 The Response of the Coupled Arctic Sea Ice±Atmosphere System to Orbital Forcing and Ice Motion at 6 kyr and 115 kyr BP STEPHEN J. VAVRUS Center for Climatic Research, Institute for Environmental Studies, University of WisconsinÐMadison, Madison, Wisconsin (Manuscript received 2 February 1998, in ®nal form 11 May 1998) ABSTRACT A coupled atmosphere±mixed layer ocean GCM (GENESIS2) is forced with altered orbital boundary conditions for paleoclimates warmer than modern (6 kyr BP) and colder than modern (115 kyr BP) in the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere. A pair of experiments is run for each paleoclimate, one with sea-ice dynamics and one without, to determine the climatic effect of ice motion and to estimate the climatic changes at these times. At 6 kyr BP the central Arctic ice pack thins by about 0.5 m and the atmosphere warms by 0.7 K in the experiment with dynamic ice. At 115 kyr BP the central Arctic sea ice in the dynamical version thickens by 2±3 m, accompanied bya2Kcooling. The magnitude of these mean-annual simulated changes is smaller than that implied by paleoenvironmental evidence, suggesting that changes in other earth system components are needed to produce realistic simulations. Contrary to previous simulations without atmospheric feedbacks, the sign of the dynamic sea-ice feedback is complicated and depends on the region, the climatic variable, and the sign of the forcing perturbation. Within the central Arctic, sea-ice motion signi®cantly reduces the amount of ice thickening at 115 kyr BP and thinning at 6 kyr BP, thus serving as a strong negative feedback in both pairs of simulations. -
Educator Guide
E DUCATOR GUIDE This guide, and its contents, are Copyrighted and are the sole Intellectual Property of Science North. E DUCATOR GUIDE The Arctic has always been a place of mystery, myth and fascination. The Inuit and their predecessors adapted and thrived for thousands of years in what is arguably the harshest environment on earth. Today, the Arctic is the focus of intense research. Instead of seeking to conquer the north, scientist pioneers are searching for answers to some troubling questions about the impacts of human activities around the world on this fragile and largely uninhabited frontier. The giant screen film, Wonders of the Arctic, centers on our ongoing mission to explore and come to terms with the Arctic, and the compelling stories of our many forays into this captivating place will be interwoven to create a unifying message about the state of the Arctic today. Underlying all these tales is the crucial role that ice plays in the northern environment and the changes that are quickly overtaking the people and animals who have adapted to this land of ice and snow. This Education Guide to the Wonders of the Arctic film is a tool for educators to explore the many fascinating aspects of the Arctic. This guide provides background information on Arctic geography, wildlife and the ice, descriptions of participatory activities, as well as references and other resources. The guide may be used to prepare the students for the film, as a follow up to the viewing, or to simply stimulate exploration of themes not covered within the film. -
Remote Sensing of Sea Ice
Remote Sensing of Sea Ice Peter Lemke Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research Bremerhaven Institute for Environmental Physics University of Bremen Contents 1. Ice and climate 2. Sea Ice Properties 3. Remote Sensing Techniques Contents 1. Ice and climate 2. Sea Ice Properties 3. Remote Sensing Techniques The Cryosphere Area Volume Volume [106 km2] [106 km3] [relativ] Ice Sheets 14.8 28.8 600 Ice Shelves 1.4 0.5 10 Sea Ice 23.0 0.05 1 Snow 45.0 0.0025 0.05 Climate System vHigh albedo vLatent heat vPlastic material Role of Ice in Climate v Impact on surface energy balance (global sink) ! Atmospheric circulation ! Oceanic circulation ! Polar amplification v Impact on gas exchange between the atmosphere and Earth’s surface v Impact on water cycle, water supply v Impact on sea level (ice mass imbalance) v Defines boundary conditions for ecosystems Role of Ice in Climate v Polar amplification in CO2 warming scenarios (surface energy balance; temperature – ice albedo feedback) IPCC, 2007 Role of Ice in Climate Polar amplification GFDL model 12 IPCC AR4 models Warming from CO2 doubling with Warming at CO2 doubling (years fixed albedo (FA) and with surface 61-80) (Winton, 2006) albedo feedback included (VA) (Hall, 2004) Contents 1. Ice and climate 2. Sea Ice Properties 3. Remote Sensing Techniques Pancake Ice Pancake Ice Old Pancake Ice First Year Ice Pressure Ridges Pressure Ridges New Ice Formation in Leads New Ice Formation in Leads New Ice Formation in Leads Melt Ponds on Arctic Sea Ice Melt ponds in the Arctic 150 m Sediment -
East Antarctic Sea Ice in Spring: Spectral Albedo of Snow, Nilas, Frost Flowers and Slush, and Light-Absorbing Impurities in Snow
Annals of Glaciology 56(69) 2015 doi: 10.3189/2015AoG69A574 53 East Antarctic sea ice in spring: spectral albedo of snow, nilas, frost flowers and slush, and light-absorbing impurities in snow Maria C. ZATKO, Stephen G. WARREN Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA E-mail: [email protected] ABSTRACT. Spectral albedos of open water, nilas, nilas with frost flowers, slush, and first-year ice with both thin and thick snow cover were measured in the East Antarctic sea-ice zone during the Sea Ice Physics and Ecosystems eXperiment II (SIPEX II) from September to November 2012, near 658 S, 1208 E. Albedo was measured across the ultraviolet (UV), visible and near-infrared (nIR) wavelengths, augmenting a dataset from prior Antarctic expeditions with spectral coverage extended to longer wavelengths, and with measurement of slush and frost flowers, which had not been encountered on the prior expeditions. At visible and UV wavelengths, the albedo depends on the thickness of snow or ice; in the nIR the albedo is determined by the specific surface area. The growth of frost flowers causes the nilas albedo to increase by 0.2±0.3 in the UV and visible wavelengths. The spectral albedos are integrated over wavelength to obtain broadband albedos for wavelength bands commonly used in climate models. The albedo spectrum for deep snow on first-year sea ice shows no evidence of light- absorbing particulate impurities (LAI), such as black carbon (BC) or organics, which is consistent with the extremely small quantities of LAI found by filtering snow meltwater. -
Arctic Report Card 2017
Arctic Report Card 2017 Arctic Report Card 2017 Arctic shows no sign of returning to reliably frozen region of recent past decades 2017 Headlines 2017 Headlines Video Executive Summary Contacts Arctic shows no sign of returning to reliably frozen Vital Signs region of recent past decades Surface Air Temperature Despite relatively cool summer temperatures, Terrestrial Snow Cover observations in 2017 continue to indicate that the Greenland Ice Sheet Arctic environmental system has reached a 'new Sea Ice normal', characterized by long-term losses in the Sea Surface Temperature extent and thickness of the sea ice cover, the extent Arctic Ocean Primary Productivity and duration of the winter snow cover and the mass of ice in the Greenland Ice Sheet and Arctic glaciers, Tundra Greenness and warming sea surface and permafrost Other Indicators temperatures. Terrestrial Permafrost Groundfish Fisheries in the Highlights Eastern Bering Sea Wildland Fire in High Latitudes • The average surface air temperature for the year ending September 2017 is the 2nd warmest since 1900; however, cooler spring and summer temperatures contributed to a rebound in snow cover in the Eurasian Arctic, slower summer sea ice loss, Frostbites and below-average melt extent for the Greenland ice sheet. Paleoceanographic Perspectives • The sea ice cover continues to be relatively young and thin with older, thicker ice comprising only 21% of the ice cover in on Arctic Ocean Change 2017 compared to 45% in 1985. Collecting Environmental • In August 2017, sea surface temperatures in the Barents and Chukchi seas were up to 4° C warmer than average, Intelligence in the New Arctic contributing to a delay in the autumn freeze-up in these regions. -
Lecture 4: OCEANS (Outline)
LectureLecture 44 :: OCEANSOCEANS (Outline)(Outline) Basic Structures and Dynamics Ekman transport Geostrophic currents Surface Ocean Circulation Subtropicl gyre Boundary current Deep Ocean Circulation Thermohaline conveyor belt ESS200A Prof. Jin -Yi Yu BasicBasic OceanOcean StructuresStructures Warm up by sunlight! Upper Ocean (~100 m) Shallow, warm upper layer where light is abundant and where most marine life can be found. Deep Ocean Cold, dark, deep ocean where plenty supplies of nutrients and carbon exist. ESS200A No sunlight! Prof. Jin -Yi Yu BasicBasic OceanOcean CurrentCurrent SystemsSystems Upper Ocean surface circulation Deep Ocean deep ocean circulation ESS200A (from “Is The Temperature Rising?”) Prof. Jin -Yi Yu TheThe StateState ofof OceansOceans Temperature warm on the upper ocean, cold in the deeper ocean. Salinity variations determined by evaporation, precipitation, sea-ice formation and melt, and river runoff. Density small in the upper ocean, large in the deeper ocean. ESS200A Prof. Jin -Yi Yu PotentialPotential TemperatureTemperature Potential temperature is very close to temperature in the ocean. The average temperature of the world ocean is about 3.6°C. ESS200A (from Global Physical Climatology ) Prof. Jin -Yi Yu SalinitySalinity E < P Sea-ice formation and melting E > P Salinity is the mass of dissolved salts in a kilogram of seawater. Unit: ‰ (part per thousand; per mil). The average salinity of the world ocean is 34.7‰. Four major factors that affect salinity: evaporation, precipitation, inflow of river water, and sea-ice formation and melting. (from Global Physical Climatology ) ESS200A Prof. Jin -Yi Yu Low density due to absorption of solar energy near the surface. DensityDensity Seawater is almost incompressible, so the density of seawater is always very close to 1000 kg/m 3.