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Decision Advantage, Decision Confidence

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Decision Advantage, Decision Confidence From AFIO's Intelligencer Journal, Vol. 21, No. 3, Fall/Winter 2015. www.afio.com ©2015 Guide to Study of Intelligence is true whether the decision-maker is a head of state making critical choices in foreign policy, a combatant commander planning details of offense or defense, a drug smuggler looking for an opening in the border, or a financial official making decisions about long term investments. Certainly, some decisions must be made without any contribution from intelligence, in Decision Advantage, which case the decision-maker could be blind. But if significant intelligence is available in support of Decision Confidence decision-making, it can provide a decision advantage so the decision-maker is better informed and under- The Why of Intelligence stands more aspects of an issue in ways that would not be possible without the intelligence. This decision advantage can be especially critical when adversaries by John MacGaffin and Peter Oleson or competitors do not possess the same insights or do not know what the opposing decision-maker does. hy have an intelligence service? If one It is also important to recognize that the deci- believes that intelligence is the world’s sion advantage that comes as a result of pertinent, second oldest profession, obviously the accurate intelligence is always accompanied by a cor- W responding disadvantage to an adversary, competitor or need for intelligence has long been recognized. One should note that many rely on intelligence for various others involved. The advantage-disadvantage dynamic reasons. Nations have used intelligence since ancient represents a zero-sum situation. The offsetting dis- times.1 But others do too.2 Intelligence is important advantage may sometimes be unintended, but most to law enforcement and the private sector. It is also often it is at the heart and intent of the matter, e.g., one important to revolutionaries, terrorists, drug cartels, negotiator possessing intelligence about the negotiat- and other criminal organizations. ing strategies and plans of the opposing party is in a For nations, intelligence has provided warning stronger position both during the negotiating process of attack. As historian John Keegan has noted “[t] and in the ultimate outcome. A targeteer knowing the he intelligence services of all states originated… in location of an unsuspecting enemy is another example. the efforts to avert an enemy’s achieving a military That is why resources were expended and risks taken to advantage [and] to achieve military advantage in collect and analyze the information in the first place. return.”3 Additionally, intelligence has given nations understanding of an adversary’s intentions and Decision Advantages covertly advanced policy implementation. For com- Probably the most significant example of decision panies, intelligence has assisted strategic planning, advantage occurred during World War II with the risk assessments, market decisions, R&D, and invest- Allies’ breaking of the German Enigma and Japanese ments. For criminals, intelligence has provided fore- diplomatic and naval operational codes. The ability to warning of law enforcement actions, aided unlawful read the German radio traffic gave the Allied planners enterprises— including the subversion of police and an enormous strategic advantage for the Normandy politicians—and allowed intimidation of witnesses. landings and operational commanders an ability to Of course, there are many other uses. counter Nazi attacks and exploit their weaknesses. At its most fundamental, intelligence is intended British historian Sir F. H. Hinsley has said that the to provide decision-makers with an advantage. This war in Europe would have lasted two, three or four years longer had it not been for breaking the German codes.4 And US Army Chief of Staff Marshall reported: 1. See Col. Rose Mary Sheldon, PhD., “A Guide to Intelligence from Antiquity to Rome,” The Intelligencer, Vol. 18, No. 1, Operations in the Pacific are largely guided Summer/Fall 2011, and other historical articles in the Guide to the by the information we obtain of Japanese Study of Intelligence at www.afio.com/40_guide.htm. 2. See Peter C. Oleson, “Who Are the Customers for Intelli- gence?” Guide to the Study of Intelligence, www.afio.com/40_guide. 4. F. H. Hinsley. “The Influence of ULTRA in the Second World htm. War,” address to the Security Group seminar at Babbage Lecture 3. John Keegan, Intelligence in War: Knowledge of the Enemy from Theatre, Cambridge University Computer Laboratory, October Napoleon to Al-Qaeda. New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 2003: 4. 19, 1993. http://www.cix.co.uk/~klockstone/hinsley.htm. Fall/Winter 2015 Intelligencer: Journal of U.S. Intelligence Studies Page 41 deployments. We know their strength in less than thirty minutes earlier.” Based on satellite various garrisons, the rations and other imagery and other geographical and intelligence stores continuing [sic] available to them, and information, these maps and three-dimensional imag- what is of vast importance, we check their ery used by the US negotiators “guaranteed accuracy, fleet movements and the movements of their consistency, and reliability” that “in one instance… convoys. The heavy losses reported from time proved crucial in persuading Yugoslav President Slo- to time which they sustain by reason of our bodan Milosevic to compromise on a disputed area.”7 submarine action largely results from the fact US intelligence capabilities have given US and that we have the sailing dates and routes of allied negotiators an advantage in various arms their convoys and can notify our submarines control negotiations. Satellite imagery, SIGINT, and to lay in wait at the proper point.5 on-site inspection capabilities (both human and Breaking of the Japanese codes proved crucial in technical) have allowed various US administrations Pacific naval warfare and provided President Truman to reach agreement on limiting both nuclear and critical intelligence influencing his decision to employ conventional arms. the atomic bomb.6 There are also examples of when a nation was In more recent history, the 1962 Cuba missile at significant disadvantage because of a lack of intel- crisis is a good example of intelligence giving decision ligence or poor analysis of the intelligence that was advantage to President Kennedy despite the fact that available. In World War I, a lack of intelligence about the latest National Intelligence Estimate discounted the target area of Gallipoli contributed to the debacle the possibility of Khrushchev placing missiles on suffered by the combined British-Australian-New the island. Tipped by SIGINT and some disturbing Zealand-French forces at the hands of the Ottoman HUMINT reports, a U-2 spy plane mission collected Empire. For the US, the surprises of the Japanese attack photography revealing the existence of offensive mis- on Pearl Harbor in 1941 and of Al-Qaida’s terrorist siles on the island, without the Soviets knowing about attacks of September 11, 2001 were both attributed the discovery. This clandestine discovery, which took to a failure of intelligence collection and analysis. The place a fortnight before the missiles were to become US may also have missed warnings before the North’s operational, provided the president and his advisors invasion of South Korea in June 1950 due to spying by the advantage of time (albeit not a lot of time) to come William Wiseband, a Soviet NKVD agent in the US up with an effective yet prudent response avoiding a Army’s SIGINT organization, who told the Soviets nuclear war. President Kennedy’s reading of the situ- that the US had broken its codes. “US SIGINT went 8 ation was strengthened by the US’s prior intelligence deaf when the Soviets changed codes.” on Soviet missile systems that had been provided by The US was at a disadvantage due to a lack of Russian Col. Oleg Penkovsky, one of the most import- intelligence, poor tradecraft, and faulty analysis in ant CIA human sources of the Cold War. deciding on war with Iraq in 2003. The US had no In 1995, the use of geospatial intelligence pro- vetted and controlled agents of its own inside Sadd- vided US negotiators an important advantage in the am’s Iraq, relying on technical collection, access to UN Dayton Peace Accords for the Bosnian war. As Dr. Gary inspection teams, and defectors and exile groups. The Weir explained, the rapid construction of detailed most compelling defector, Curveball, was controlled maps reflected the “territorial dispositions negotiated by a foreign intelligence service, the German BND, which refused to give the US access or even his true name until well after the war. He turned out to be 5. Marshall to Dewey, September 25, 1944, SRH-043, cited in Christopher Andrew, For the President’s Eyes Only, New York: a skilled fabricator; his claims of mobile biological Harper, 1996: 142-3. weapons proved to be wholly false. The exile Iraqi 6. Peter C. Oleson, “From Axis Surprises to Allied Victories: The National Congress persuaded US lawmakers and Impact of Intelligence in World War II,” Guide to the Study of Intel- senior policymakers in the White House and Defense ligence, http://www.afio.com/publications/OLESON%20Intel% http:// www.afio.com/publications/OLESON%20Intel%20in%20WW2%20 DRAFT%202015Apr03.pdf. Douglas J. MacEachin. The Final 7. Gary E. Weir. “The Evolution of Geospatial Intelligence and Months of the War with Japan: Signals Intelligence, US Invasion Plan- the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency,” in the Guide to ning, and the A-Bomb Decision. (Washington, DC: Central Intelli- the Study of Intelligence, http://www.afio.com/publications/ WEIR%20 gence Agency, Center for the Study of Intelligence, 1998). https:// NGA%20Essay%202014Nov05%20DRAFT.pdf. www.cia.gov/ library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publica- 8. David Major and Peter C. Oleson. “Espionage Against Amer- tions/books-and-monographs/the-final-months-of-the-war-with-japan- ica,” Guide to the Study of Intelligence, http://www.afio.com/publica- signals-intelligence-u-s-invasion-planning-and-the-a-bomb-decision/ tions/MAJOR%20OLESON%20Espionage%20DRAFT%20ver%20 csi9810001.html#rtoc2.
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