DOCSLIB.ORG

Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences This PDF is available from The National Academies Press at http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=13040 Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences ISBN Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve 978-0-309-16342-2 Intelligence Analysis for National Security; National Research Council 116 pages 6 x 9 PAPERBACK (2011) Visit the National Academies Press online and register for... Instant access to free PDF downloads of titles from the NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES NATIONAL ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING INSTITUTE OF MEDICINE NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL 10% off print titles Custom notification of new releases in your field of interest Special offers and discounts Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the National Academies Press. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Request reprint permission for this book Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS FOR TOMORROW Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Govern- ing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineer- ing, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropri- ate balance. This study was supported by Grant No. 2008*1199327*000 between the National Academy of Sciences and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organiza- tions or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-16342-2 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-16342-0 Additional copies of this report are available from National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2011 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America Suggested citation: National Research Council. (2011). Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences. Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Acad- emy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineer- ing programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is presi- dent of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Insti- tute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sci- ences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Coun- cil is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences COMMITTEE ON BEHAVIORAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCE RESEARCH TO IMPROVE INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS FOR NATIONAL SECURITY Baruch Fischhoff (Chair), Department of Social and Decision Sciences and Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University Hal R. Arkes, Department of Psychology, Ohio State University Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Department of Politics, New York University and Hoover Institution, Stanford University Thomas Fingar, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University Reid Hastie, Chicago Booth Business School, University of Chicago Edward H. Kaplan, School of Management, School of Public Health, and School of Engineering and Applied Science, Yale University Steven W.J. Kozlowski, Department of Psychology, Michigan State University Gary H. McClelland, Department of Psychology, University of Colorado Kiron K. Skinner, Department of Social and Decision Sciences, Carnegie Mellon University and Hoover Institution, Stanford University Barbara A. Spellman, Department of Psychology and School of Law, University of Virginia Philip E. Tetlock, Department of Psychology and Wharton School of Business, University of Pennsylvania Catherine H. Tinsley, McDonough School of Business, Georgetown University Amy Zegart, School of Public Affairs, University of California, Los Angeles, and Hoover Institution, Stanford University Cherie Chauvin, Study Director Robert Pool, Consultant Matthew McDonough, Senior Program Assistant (through April 2010) Gary Fischer, Senior Program Assistant (from April 2010) v Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences BOARD ON BEHAVIORAL, COGNITIVE, AND SENSORY SCIENCES Philip E. Rubin (Chair), Haskins Laboratories and Yale University Lisa Feldman Barrett, Department of Psychology, Northeastern University Linda M. Bartoshuk, College of Dentistry, University of Florida Richard J. Bonnie, Institute of Law, Psychiatry and Public Policy, University of Virginia John T. Cacioppo, Department of Psychology, The University of Chicago Susan E. Carey, Department of Psychology, Harvard University Susan T. Fiske, Department of Psychology, Princeton University Nina G. Jablonski, Department of Anthropology, Pennsylvania State University Patricia K. Kuhl, Department of Speech and Hearing Sciences, University of Washington Jonathan D. Moreno, Departments of Medical Ethics and History and Sociology of Science, University of Pennsylvania Richard E. Nisbett, Department of Psychology, University of Michigan Michael I. Posner, Department of Psychology, University of Oregon (Emeritus) Valerie F. Reyna, Departments of Human Development and Psychology, Cornell University Richard M. Shiffrin, Psychology Department, Indiana University Brian A. Wandell, Department of Psychology, Stanford University Barbara A. Wanchisen, Director Mary Ellen O’Connell, Deputy Director Christie R. Jones, Program Associate vi Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences Acknowledgments This study was sponsored by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI). The committee is grateful to the many ODNI staff who made valuable presentations and provided informative materials to the
Load more

Recommended publications
  • National Security Reform: Problems, Progress, and Prospects
    STRATEGIC STUDIES INSTITUTE The Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) is part of the U.S. Army War College and is the strategic level study agent for issues related to national security and military strategy with emphasis on geostrate- gic analysis. The mission of SSI is to use independent analysis to conduct strategic studies that develop policy recommendations on: • Strategy, planning and policy for joint and combined employment of military forces; • Regional strategic appraisals; • The nature of land warfare; • Matters affecting the Army’s future; • The concepts, philosophy, and theory of strategy; and • Other issues of importance to the leadership of the Army. Studies produced by civilian and military analysts concern topics having strategic implications for the Army, the Department of De- fense, and the larger national security community. In addition to its studies, SSI publishes special reports on topics of special or immediate interest. These include edited proceedings of conferences and topically-oriented roundtables, expanded trip re- ports, and quick reaction responses to senior Army leaders. The Institute provides a valuable analytical capability within the Army to address strategic and other issues in support of Army par- ticipation in national security policy formulation. RETHINKING LEADERSHIP AND “WHOLE OF GOVERNMENT” NATIONAL SECURITY REFORM: PROBLEMS, PROGRESS, AND PROSPECTS Joseph R. Cerami Jeffrey A. Engel Editors May 2010 Visit our website for other free publication downloads http://www.StrategicStudiesInstitute.army.mil/ To rate this publication click here. The views expressed in this report are those of the au- thors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, the De- partment of Defense, or the U.S.
    [Show full text]
  • Killing Hope U.S
    Killing Hope U.S. Military and CIA Interventions Since World War II – Part I William Blum Zed Books London Killing Hope was first published outside of North America by Zed Books Ltd, 7 Cynthia Street, London NI 9JF, UK in 2003. Second impression, 2004 Printed by Gopsons Papers Limited, Noida, India w w w.zedbooks .demon .co .uk Published in South Africa by Spearhead, a division of New Africa Books, PO Box 23408, Claremont 7735 This is a wholly revised, extended and updated edition of a book originally published under the title The CIA: A Forgotten History (Zed Books, 1986) Copyright © William Blum 2003 The right of William Blum to be identified as the author of this work has been asserted by him in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. Cover design by Andrew Corbett ISBN 1 84277 368 2 hb ISBN 1 84277 369 0 pb Spearhead ISBN 0 86486 560 0 pb 2 Contents PART I Introduction 6 1. China 1945 to 1960s: Was Mao Tse-tung just paranoid? 20 2. Italy 1947-1948: Free elections, Hollywood style 27 3. Greece 1947 to early 1950s: From cradle of democracy to client state 33 4. The Philippines 1940s and 1950s: America's oldest colony 38 5. Korea 1945-1953: Was it all that it appeared to be? 44 6. Albania 1949-1953: The proper English spy 54 7. Eastern Europe 1948-1956: Operation Splinter Factor 56 8. Germany 1950s: Everything from juvenile delinquency to terrorism 60 9. Iran 1953: Making it safe for the King of Kings 63 10.
    [Show full text]
  • Decision Advantage, Decision Confidence
    From AFIO's Intelligencer Journal, Vol. 21, No. 3, Fall/Winter 2015. www.afio.com ©2015 Guide to Study of Intelligence is true whether the decision-maker is a head of state making critical choices in foreign policy, a combatant commander planning details of offense or defense, a drug smuggler looking for an opening in the border, or a financial official making decisions about long term investments. Certainly, some decisions must be made without any contribution from intelligence, in Decision Advantage, which case the decision-maker could be blind. But if significant intelligence is available in support of Decision Confidence decision-making, it can provide a decision advantage so the decision-maker is better informed and under- The Why of Intelligence stands more aspects of an issue in ways that would not be possible without the intelligence. This decision advantage can be especially critical when adversaries by John MacGaffin and Peter Oleson or competitors do not possess the same insights or do not know what the opposing decision-maker does. hy have an intelligence service? If one It is also important to recognize that the deci- believes that intelligence is the world’s sion advantage that comes as a result of pertinent, second oldest profession, obviously the accurate intelligence is always accompanied by a cor- W responding disadvantage to an adversary, competitor or need for intelligence has long been recognized. One should note that many rely on intelligence for various others involved. The advantage-disadvantage dynamic reasons. Nations have used intelligence since ancient represents a zero-sum situation. The offsetting dis- times.1 But others do too.2 Intelligence is important advantage may sometimes be unintended, but most to law enforcement and the private sector.
    [Show full text]
  • Cyber, Intelligence, and Security
    Cyber, Intelligence, and Security Volume 3 | No. 1 | May 2019 European Countries Facing the Challenge of Foreign Influence on Democracy—Comparative Research David Siman-Tov and Mor Buskila The Threat of Foreign Interference in the 2019 Elections in Israel and Ways of Handling it Pnina Shuker and Gabi Siboni The INF Treaty and New START: Escalation Control, Strategic Fatalism, and the Role of Cyber Stephen J. Cimbala Iranian Cyber Capabilities: Assessing the Threat to Israeli Financial and Security Interests Sam Cohen Outsourcing in Intelligence and Defense Agencies: A Risk of an Increase in the Proliferation of Cyber Weapons? Omree Wechsler The Academization of Intelligence: A Comparative Overview of Intelligence Studies in the West Kobi Michael and Aaron Kornbluth Forty-Five Years Since the Yom Kippur War: Intelligence and Risk Management in the Thirty Hours Preceding the War Shmuel Even National Cyber Security in Israel Yigal Unna Cyber, Intelligence, and Security Volume 3 | No. 1 | May 2019 Contents European Countries Facing the Challenge of Foreign Influence on Democracy—Comparative Research | 3 David Siman-Tov and Mor Buskila The Threat of Foreign Interference in the 2019 Elections in Israel and Ways of Handling it | 27 Pnina Shuker and Gabi Siboni The INF Treaty and New START: Escalation Control, Strategic Fatalism, and the Role of Cyber | 41 Stephen J. Cimbala Iranian Cyber Capabilities: Assessing the Threat to Israeli Financial and Security Interests | 71 Sam Cohen Outsourcing in Intelligence and Defense Agencies: A Risk of an Increase in the Proliferation of Cyber Weapons? | 95 Omree Wechsler The Academization of Intelligence: A Comparative Overview of Intelligence Studies in the West | 117 Kobi Michael and Aaron Kornbluth Forty-Five Years Since the Yom Kippur War: Intelligence and Risk Management in the Thirty Hours Preceding the War | 141 Shmuel Even National Cyber Security in Israel | 167 Yigal Unna The purpose of Cyber, Intelligence, and Security is to stimulate Cyber, and enrich the public debate on related issues.
    [Show full text]
  • Democratization of Intelligence
    Does “national character” correlate with the nature of national, strategic intelligence across a major region of the world? This question remains open and important, given that the intelligence services of any country by DEMOCRATIZATION defi nition ideally provide an institutional guarantee of national survival. In the end, public consciousness of the intelligence function can contribute OF INTELLIGENCE directly to the positive evolution of intelligence as one of the oldest of political institutions, in such a way that we can begin to identify a MELDING STRATEGIC INTELLIGENCE phenomenon of “democratization” of national intelligence. AND NATIONAL DISCOURSE Russell G. Swenson and Susana C. Lemozy Editors As may be inferred from most of the essays in this book, the emphasis on state security and control of violent criminal activity is a strong, distinctive feature of the intelligence services across the region. One possibility is to extend the research carried out for this book to a systematic comparison of the institutional framework and operational emphases in other regions where, as we know through an emerging body of comparative research, there is an impetus to institutionalize democratic reform and improve the integration of law enforcement and strategic intelligence. Intelligence studies are on the brink of making the leap to a level where they will have practical relevance. This book edited by Russell Swenson and Susana Lemozy holds importance for its presentation of usefully detailed essays and for the impetus it gives for theoretically oriented comparative studies. The book should be required reading for scholars interested in the combination of intelligence, strategic culture, security and democracy.
    [Show full text]
  • Information Sources on the Web – Intelligence Bibliographies, Newsletters, Blogs, and Webliographies
    Staying Informed: Information Sources on the Web – Intelligence Bibliographies, Newsletters, Blogs, and Webliographies Peter C. Oleson For those educators and interested parties who try to keep up with the world of intelligence the flood of information can be daunting. Newspaper articles, new books, scholarly journals, and web blogs that address intelligence are numerous. Many are politically motivated; none is comprehensive. Unclassified sources lack much of the primary material. Classified sources, unless leaked, are not available. Nevertheless, the following are useful resources, presented in alphabetical order. AFCEA International (Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association) publishes Signal magazine monthly, which contains numerous intelligence-related articles and news. AFCEA also publishes via its website webinars and white papers related to intelligence. www.afcea.org. AFCEA also has a monthly intelligence- related blog, the MAZZINT Blog. Air University has an excellent compilation of intelligence-related materials with many links to articles and relevant websites at its “Gateway to Intelligence.” http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/awc-ntel.htm. The American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats project tracks and provides analysis of key and emerging threats to national security. http://www.aei.org/feature/critical-threats-project/. The Association of Former Intelligence Officers (AFIO) is an education-oriented national association and has two major recurring publications. The Weekly Intelligence Notes (WIN), available to paid members, provides synopses and links to major intelligence-related news stories. The WINs also have a comprehensive calendar of intelligence-related events, including for the International Spy Museum in Washington, D.C. AFIO’s journal, Intelligencer, carries articles, opinion pieces, book reviews, and association news.
    [Show full text]
  • Periscope Newsletter of Afio
    NEWSLETTER OF AFIO NATIONAL AND CHAPTER PERISCOPE EVENTS, PLANS & NEWS Association of Former Intelligence Offi cers Volume XXV, Numbers 1 and 2, 2002 Gates rose through the ranks to the top job; but, incredibly, he didn’t C O N T E N T S bunki “get it”! Or perhaps he just forgot the e ng fundamental difference between a Debunking the CIA Case Offi cer D CIA “case offi cer” and an indigenous Myth by Fred Rustmann, Jr. .............. 1 “agent.” President’s Message and SpyCruise by Gene Poteat.................................. 2 More recent criticism has been What’s New in AFIO directed at the Agency by a few former by Roy Jonkers................................... 4 disgruntled junior case offi cers (who AFIO Board Actions on Bylaws ............ 6 also don’t get it, or don’t want to get it). Ballot for Election of New Board They claim that the Agency’s Members for 2003............................. 7 effectiveness, particularly regarding AFIO’s Strategic Plan Update .............. 8 Middle Eastern terrorist targets, is Honors Lists for 2001 - Donors, New hamstrung by the lack of case offi cers Member-Getters, Corporate Partners, with the requisite foreign language fl u- Volunteers .........................................10 the CIA Case Officer Myth ency, cultural knowledge and physical Welcome to the Board ........................13 characteristics to blend into a foreign Chapter Reports ...................................14 operational environment with the ease In Memorium .......................................15 Frederick W. Rustmann Jr. of a native of that country. They call Researchers Needing Assistance ..........16 July 23, 2002 for a recruitment drive to attract such Forthcoming Events/ souls, and that call has been fueled by Conferences ......................................17 Several years ago I was among a the press and others ever since.
    [Show full text]
  • Learning with Professionals
    Joint Military Intelligence College LEARNING WITH PROFESSIONALS Selected Works from the Joint Military Intelligence College EL INT LIG Y E R N A C T E I L C I O M L L T E N G I E O J 1962 The Joint Military Intelligence College supports and encourages research on intelligence issues that distills lessons and improves support to policy-level and operational consumers Learning With Professionals: Selected Works from the Joint Military Intelligence College is a collection of writings by present or former faculty and students at the Joint Military Intelligence College. The purpose of the book is to provide an academic resource for students, teachers, and practitioners of intelligence. The growth of the field as an academic discipline has been accompanied by a growth in its body of literature, and some of the most significant writings have come from a center of excellence in the field, the Joint Military Intelligence College. Those presented here represent a cross section of subdisciplines, some with a very timely element, some timeless. Though many of the writings were published outside of the College, those published within are available from the College, and are accessible by Intelink or from the National Technical Information Service (www.ntis.gov). For more details, please contact the Center for Strategic Intelligence Research at the College ([email protected]). This product has been reviewed by senior experts from academia and government, and has been approved for unrestricted distribution by the Directorate for Freedom of Information and Security Review, Washington Headquarters Services, Department of Defense.
    [Show full text]
  • The U.S. Intelligence Community: Selected Cross-Cutting Issues
    The U.S. Intelligence Community: Selected Cross-Cutting Issues Anne Daugherty Miles Analyst in Intelligence and National Security Policy April 12, 2016 Congressional Research Service 7-5700 www.crs.gov R44455 The U.S. Intelligence Community: Selected Cross-Cutting Issues Summary This report focuses on cross-cutting management issues that affect the Intelligence Community’s (IC’s) ability to counter “pervasive and emerging threats” to the United States and balance resources both appropriately and wisely. As the IC’s senior manager, these issues ultimately fall within the Director of National Intelligence’s (DNI’s) area of responsibility. The DNI is charged with integrating the community of intelligence agencies so that they operate effectively as one team. There are no easy solutions to the challenges examined in this report. The IC’s efforts to demonstrate progress are hampered by difficulties such as the IC’s diffuse structure—a confederation of separately managed component parts; the unique demands of operating in secret; the interrelationships between many issues; and diminishing resources. The issues selected for examination in this report were chosen because they affect a number of agencies and are widely discussed by professionals within and external to the IC (and are not so complex that they need their own separate report). 1. Budget. Are the resources in the IC budget (the national and military intelligence programs) managed and balanced appropriately to meet the needs of every agency and the IC mission as a whole? 2. Analysis. The heart and soul of the intelligence function; analysis is the responsibility of every IC agency.
    [Show full text]
  • Intelligence Analysis Mark M
    INCIDENTAL PAPER Seminar on Intelligence, Command, and Control Intelligence Analysis Mark M. Lowenthal Guest Presentations, Spring 2004 Carol A. Haave, Mark M. Lowenthal, Robert B. Murrett, John C. Gannon, Joan A. Dempsey, Gregory J. Rattray, Robert Liscouski, Arthur K. Cebrowski, Aris Pappas May 2004 Program on Information Resources Policy Center for Information Policy Research Harvard University The Program on Information Resources Policy is jointly sponsored by Harvard University and the Center for Information Policy Research. Chairman Managing Director Anthony G. Oettinger John C. B. LeGates Copyright © 2004 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College. Not to be reproduced in any form without written consent from the Program on Information Resources Policy, Harvard University, Maxwell Dworkin 125, 33 Oxford Street, Cambridge MA 02138. (617) 495-4114 E-mail: [email protected] URL: http://www.pirp.harvard.edu ISBN I-879716-89-5 I-04-1 May 2004 PROGRAM ON INFORMATION RESOURCES POLICY Harvard University Center for Information Policy Research Affiliates AT&T Corp. PDS Consulting Australian Telecommunications Users Group PetaData Holdings, Ltd. BellSouth Corp. Samara Associates The Boeing Company Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Booz Allen Hamilton Flom LLP Center for Excellence in Education Strategy Assistance Services Commission of the European Communities TOR LLC Critical Path TransMedia Exchange CyraCom International United States Government: Ellacoya Networks, Inc. Department of Commerce Hanaro Telecom Corp. (Korea) National Telecommunications and Hearst Newspapers Information Administration Hitachi Research Institute (Japan) Department of Defense IBM Corp. National Defense University Korea Telecom Department of Health and Human Lee Enterprises, Inc. Services Lexis–Nexis National Library of Medicine John and Mary R.
    [Show full text]
  • 1 Introduction: Intelligence Cooperation and Professionalization
    Notes 1 Introduction: Intelligence Cooperation and Professionalization 1. Quoted in ‘Douglas Waller’s “Wild Bill Donovan,” on the OSS spymaster’, WP, 27 February 2011. 2. R. Heslop, ‘The modern professionals’, Jane’s Police Review Community, 29 October 2010. 3. See also sources, e.g., ‘“Narrative verdict” at Linda Norgrove inquest’, BBC, and J. Healy, ‘Popular Rage Is Met With Violence in Mideast’, NYT, 15/17 February 2011; ‘England riots: Police could get wider curfew powers’, BBC, 16 August 2011; ‘Foreign Secretary publishes review of consular evacuation procedures’, FCO.gov.uk, 21 February 2012. 4. See also UK Association of Chief Police Officers (ACPO), ‘Introduction to Intelligence- Led Policing’, ACPO Practice Advice, 2007; ‘Intelligence, Tips Drive Operations in Afghanistan’, US DoD, 17 September 2010; ‘Key role of intelli- gence’ in A. Nicoll (ed.), ‘US intensifies drone strikes in Pakistan’, IISS_SC, 16, 36, October 2010; ‘U.S. Kills bin Laden in Intelligence- driven Operation’ and ‘Brigade Leaders Cite Value of Intelligence’, Defense.gov, 2 May 2011. 5. Naturally a huge body of literature can be referenced here, especially as ‘professionalization’ or ‘professionalism’ elements, or at least strives to those ‘ends’, constitute such a large focus of several business studies texts. Notable examples of most relevant texts for this study, with a strong influence on ‘liai- son’-related concerns, are cited; see also ‘Government to Overhaul Anti- Terror Training By Spring’, WB, 8 December 2011. 6. A. MacVean, ‘What is a professional?’, Jane’s Police Review Community, 18 September 2009; see also ‘Editorial: Police leadership presents a bleak and depressing spectacle’, TO, 11 March 2012.
    [Show full text]
  • America's Alleged Intelligence Failure in The
    University of Calgary PRISM: University of Calgary's Digital Repository Graduate Studies The Vault: Electronic Theses and Dissertations 2017 America’s Alleged Intelligence Failure in the Prelude to Operation Iraqi Freedom: A Study of Analytic Factors Cake, Timothy Cake, T. (2017). America’s Alleged Intelligence Failure in the Prelude to Operation Iraqi Freedom: A Study of Analytic Factors (Unpublished doctoral thesis). University of Calgary, Calgary, AB. doi:10.11575/PRISM/24784 http://hdl.handle.net/11023/3688 doctoral thesis University of Calgary graduate students retain copyright ownership and moral rights for their thesis. You may use this material in any way that is permitted by the Copyright Act or through licensing that has been assigned to the document. For uses that are not allowable under copyright legislation or licensing, you are required to seek permission. Downloaded from PRISM: https://prism.ucalgary.ca UNIVERSITY OF CALGARY America’s Alleged Intelligence Failure in the Prelude to Operation Iraqi Freedom: A Study of Analytic Factors by Timothy Cake A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY GRADUATE PROGRAM IN MILITARY, SECURITY, AND STRATEGIC STUDIES CALGARY, ALBERTA APRIL, 2017 © Timothy Cake 2017 ABSTRACT In the prelude to Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF), notables in the G. W. Bush administration declared Iraq to be an existential threat as it had weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and connections to transnational terrorist groups. After the 2003 invasion of that state, coalition forces engaged in a search effort that found no significant evidence of WMD.
    [Show full text]