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Learning with Professionals Joint Military Intelligence College LEARNING WITH PROFESSIONALS Selected Works from the Joint Military Intelligence College EL INT LIG Y E R N A C T E I L C I O M L L T E N G I E O J 1962 The Joint Military Intelligence College supports and encourages research on intelligence issues that distills lessons and improves support to policy-level and operational consumers Learning With Professionals: Selected Works from the Joint Military Intelligence College is a collection of writings by present or former faculty and students at the Joint Military Intelligence College. The purpose of the book is to provide an academic resource for students, teachers, and practitioners of intelligence. The growth of the field as an academic discipline has been accompanied by a growth in its body of literature, and some of the most significant writings have come from a center of excellence in the field, the Joint Military Intelligence College. Those presented here represent a cross section of subdisciplines, some with a very timely element, some timeless. Though many of the writings were published outside of the College, those published within are available from the College, and are accessible by Intelink or from the National Technical Information Service (www.ntis.gov). For more details, please contact the Center for Strategic Intelligence Research at the College ([email protected]). This product has been reviewed by senior experts from academia and government, and has been approved for unrestricted distribution by the Directorate for Freedom of Information and Security Review, Washington Headquarters Services, Department of Defense. Compiled by: Mr. James S. Major, Director of the College Writing Center Dr. Solveig Eggers Brownfeld, Associate Director, College Writing Center Edited by: Dr. James E. Lightfoot, Associate Director, Center for Strategic Intelligence Research Library of Congress Control Number 2005927346 ISBN 1-932946-05-5 56166_p.fm Page i Tuesday, July 19, 2005 9:16 AM LEARNING WITH PROFESSIONALS Selected Works from the Joint Military Intelligence College A collection of previously published works by students and members of the faculty of the Joint Military Intelligence College In g ic t e e g ll t ii a g e r n tt c SS c ee rr R R o o e e f f s s e e r r a a e e t r t r n c n Joint Military c e h e h C Intelligence College C Washington, DC July 2005 The views expressed in this book are those of the authors and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government 56166_p.fm Page ii Tuesday, July 19, 2005 9:16 AM 56166_p.fm Page iii Tuesday, July 19, 2005 9:16 AM CONTENTS Introduction. v A. Denis Clift The Work of Intelligence Meeting the Intelligence Community’s Continuing Need for an Intelligence Literature. 1 Russell G. Swenson Writing with Intelligence, Chapter 2, “The Basic Tools of Writing with Intelligence’’ . 7 James S. Major Intelligence Essentials for Everyone, Prologue, Part 1, Part 2 . 21 Lisa Krizan On Becoming an Intelligence Analyst . 39 Ronald D. Garst and Max L. Gross Getting Intelligence Right: The Power of Logical Procedure (excerpt) . 47 William S. Brei Opening Windows of Opportunity: The Need for Opportunities-Based Warning. 77 Stewart C. Eales Teaching Vision. 87 Mark G. Marshall Spy Fiction, Spy Reality . 111 Jon A. Wiant Evidence Marshaling and Argument Construction (excerpt) . 125 Frank J. Hughes Failures of Imagination: Thoughts on the 9/11 Commission Report . 131 Thomas Dowling Homeland Security and Intelligence: Can Oil Mix with Water in an Open Society?. 139 William C. Spracher iii 56166_p.fm Page iv Tuesday, July 19, 2005 9:16 AM The History of Intelligence The San Cristobal Trapezoid. 165 A. Denis Clift and John T. Hughes Israel’s Quest for Satellite Intelligence. 185 Eugene L. Zorn Experiences to Go: Teaching with Intelligence Case Studies (excerpt). 195 Thomas W. Shreeve The Creation of the National Imagery and Mapping Agency: Congress’s Role as Overseer . 217 Anne Daugherty Miles The Applications of Intelligence Health and National Security . 247 George C. Fidas Intelligence Support to Refugee Operations: Who’s the Expert? . 253 James D. Edwards Religion and War in the 21st Century. 273 Pauletta Otis Intelligence Support to the Life Science Community: Mitigating Threats from Bioterrorism . 285 James B. Petro ‘SALSA for Cyber Sonics’: Education and Research at the Joint Military Intelligence College . 301 A. Denis Clift Knowledge-based Tools: A Solution for Optimizing Collection Requirements Management (excerpt) . 307 Mark Jensen Narco-Mercantilism and the War on Drugs: Is Victory an Option? . 319 William Drohan iv 56166_p.fm Page v Tuesday, July 19, 2005 9:16 AM LEARNING WITH PROFESSIONALS Selected Works from the Joint Military Intelligence College INTRODUCTION The University of Maryland’s July 2005 conference on "Teaching Intelligence in America’s Universities" marks the turning of a significant page in the history of American academia. The history, the role, and the contributions of intelligence are now recognized in growing numbers of institutions of higher learning across the land as important fields of academic study and research. If intelligence was first formally declared an instrument of U.S. national security in the National Security Act of 1947, it did not enter the mainstream of American thinking and discourse until the terrorist attacks of 2001 and their aftermath. Now, with the benefit of commission studies and recommendations and executive and legislative actions culminat- ing in the passage of the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004, good, timely, relevant intelligence is recognized as "the air the nation breathes." Soccer moms discuss intelligence. College students’ interest in intelligence extends beyond the work of the classroom to the prospect of intelligence as a career. The Joint Military Intelligence College has the privilege and the trust of serving as the Federal Government’s center of excellence for intelligence education and research. With teaching and research at both the classified and unclassified levels, the College awards the Master of Science of Strategic Intelligence degree and the Bachelor of Science in Intelli- gence degree. The College’s degrees are authorized by the Congress. The College is accredited by the Middle States Commission on Higher Education and is a member of the Consortium of Universities of the Washington Metropolitan Area. The research and publications of the College’s students, faculty, and research fellows are contributing to the work of intelligence and the security of the nation. They are creat- ing the literature of intelligence. This book of readings taken from such research and writ- ings offers a window on the incredible history and evolving work of intelligence and the contributions it is making in the early 21st century. The different chapters underscore the importance of the emergence of intelligence as a sought-after academic discipline. A. Denis Clift President, Joint Military Intelligence College v 56166_p.fm Page vi Tuesday, July 19, 2005 9:16 AM 56166.fm7 Page -1 Tuesday, July 19, 2005 9:14 AM THE WORK OF INTELLIGENCE 56166.fm7 Page 0 Tuesday, July 19, 2005 9:14 AM 56166.fm7 Page 1 Tuesday, July 19, 2005 9:14 AM MEETING THE COMMUNITY’S CONTINUING NEED FOR AN INTELLIGENCE LITERATURE Russell G. Swenson (Originally Published in the Defense Intelligence Journal; 11-2 (2002), 87-98.) Intelligence today is not merely a profession, but like most professions it has taken on the aspects of a discipline: it has developed a recognized methodol- ogy; it has developed a vocabulary; it has developed a body of theory and doctrine; it has elaborate and refined techniques. It now has a large profes- sional following. What it lacks is a literature.1 Sherman Kent’s argument, published in 1955, bears re-examination. On the same page with the passage above, he noted that “The sort of literature I am talking about is of the nature of house organ literature, but much more. You might call it the institutional mind and memory of our discipline.” Over the years, the journal Studies in Intelligence, published by the Center for the Study of Intelligence, has brought to light the insights of government intelligence practitioners. Featured articles, for example, have addressed Kent’s concern that the professional literature address questions of mission and method. His other concerns, that the literature promote a shared definition of terms, and that it elevate the level of debate of all these issues, have certainly been accomplished in the training and especially the education classrooms of the Intelligence Community.2 How- ever, active debate over the principles and practices of intelligence remains confined largely to those classrooms. How can a more mature literature be drawn from these obscure debates, so as to expose arguments to the sometimes humbling yet clarifying light that comes with their publication as a permanent record? How can those of us who feel responsible for capturing institutional knowledge accommodate ourselves to the maxim that, as earlier generations might have put it: Litera scripta manet — [It is] the written word [that] remains — and that provides a literature on which an applied (field- tested) academic discipline may develop. As Kent acknowledges, this literature must at times bear a classification to protect sen- sitive information. However, he also suggests that a surprising share of the literature can be produced without controls that shield it from “outsiders.” Academically oriented publi- cation of Intelligence Community literature on collection, analysis and presentation meth- ods, and published explorations of such topics as the intelligence-policy relationship and international intelligence sharing, if presented on a Community website, could broadcast 1 Sherman Kent, “The Need for an Intelligence Literature,” Studies in Intelligence 1, no.
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