Connecting the Dots. Intelligence and Law Enforcement Since 9/11
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Introduction
NOTES Introduction 1. Robert Kagan to George Packer. Cited in Packer’s The Assassin’s Gate: America In Iraq (Faber and Faber, London, 2006): 38. 2. Stefan Halper and Jonathan Clarke, America Alone: The Neoconservatives and the Global Order (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2004): 9. 3. Critiques of the war on terror and its origins include Gary Dorrien, Imperial Designs: Neoconservatism and the New Pax Americana (Routledge, New York and London, 2004); Francis Fukuyama, After the Neocons: America At the Crossroads (Profile Books, London, 2006); Ira Chernus, Monsters to Destroy: The Neoconservative War on Terror and Sin (Paradigm Publishers, Boulder, CO and London, 2006); and Jacob Heilbrunn, They Knew They Were Right: The Rise of the Neocons (Doubleday, New York, 2008). 4. A report of the PNAC, Rebuilding America’s Defenses: Strategy, Forces and Resources for a New Century, September 2000: 76. URL: http:// www.newamericancentury.org/RebuildingAmericasDefenses.pdf (15 January 2009). 5. On the first generation on Cold War neoconservatives, which has been covered far more extensively than the second, see Gary Dorrien, The Neoconservative Mind: Politics, Culture and the War of Ideology (Temple University Press, Philadelphia, 1993); Peter Steinfels, The Neoconservatives: The Men Who Are Changing America’s Politics (Simon and Schuster, New York, 1979); Murray Friedman, The Neoconservative Revolution: Jewish Intellectuals and the Shaping of Public Policy (Cambridge University Press, New York, 2005); Murray Friedman ed. Commentary in American Life (Temple University Press, Philadelphia, 2005); Mark Gerson, The Neoconservative Vision: From the Cold War to the Culture Wars (Madison Books, Lanham MD; New York; Oxford, 1997); and Maria Ryan, “Neoconservative Intellectuals and the Limitations of Governing: The Reagan Administration and the Demise of the Cold War,” Comparative American Studies, Vol. -
New Frontiers of Intelligence Analysis
A Publication of the Global Futures Partnership of the Sherman Kent School for Intelligence Analysis Link Campus University of Malta Gino Germani Center for Comparative Studies of Modernization and Development NEW FRONTIERS OF INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS Papers presented at the conference on “New Frontiers of Intelligence Analysis: Shared Threats, Diverse Perspectives, New Communities” Rome, Italy, 31 March-2 April 2004 1 All statements of fact, opinion, or analysis expressed in these collected papers are those of the authors. They do not necessarily reflect the official positions or views of the Global Futures Part- nership of the Sherman Kent School for Intelligence Analysis, of the Link Campus University of Malta, or of the Gino Germani Center for the Comparative Study of Modernization and Develop- ment. The papers in this publication have been published with the consent of the authors. This volume has been edited by the New Frontiers conference co-directors. Comments and queries are welcome and may be directed to New Frontiers conference co-di- rector Dr. L. S. Germani : [email protected] All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval sys- tem, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publishers and the authors of the papers. 2 CONTENTS PREFACE 5 Vincenzo Scotti INTRODUCTION 9 Carol Dumaine and L. Sergio Germani Part I - INTRODUCTORY REMARKS TO THE CONFERENCE 1 - INTRODUCTORY REMARKS 15 Gianfranco Fini 2 - INTRODUCTORY REMARKS 17 Nicolò Pollari Part II – PAPERS PRESENTED AT THE CONFERENCE 3 - LOOKING OVER THE HORIZON: STRATEGIC CHOICES, INTELLIGENCE CHALLENGES 23 Robert L. -
Sherman Kent, Scientific Hubris, and the CIA's Office of National Estimates
Inman Award Essay Beacon and Warning: Sherman Kent, Scientific Hubris, and the CIA’s Office of National Estimates J. Peter Scoblic Beacon and Warning: Sherman Kent, Scientific Hubris, and the CIA’s Office of National Estimates Would-be forecasters have increasingly extolled the predictive potential of Big Data and artificial intelligence. This essay reviews the career of Sherman Kent, the Yale historian who directed the CIA’s Office of National Estimates from 1952 to 1967, with an eye toward evaluating this enthusiasm. Charged with anticipating threats to U.S. national security, Kent believed, as did much of the postwar academy, that contemporary developments in the social sciences enabled scholars to forecast human behavior with far greater accuracy than before. The predictive record of the Office of National Estimates was, however, decidedly mixed. Kent’s methodological rigor enabled him to professionalize U.S. intelligence analysis, making him a model in today’s “post- truth” climate, but his failures offer a cautionary tale for those who insist that technology will soon reveal the future. I believe it is fair to say that, as a on European civilization.2 Kent had no military, group, [19th-century historians] thought diplomatic, or intelligence background — in fact, their knowledge of the past gave them a no government experience of any kind. This would prophetic vision of what was to come.1 seem to make him an odd candidate to serve –Sherman Kent William “Wild Bill” Donovan, a man of intimidating martial accomplishment, whom President Franklin t is no small irony that the man who did D. -
SHERMAN KENT at YALE 62 the Making of an Intelligence Analyst Antonia Woodford
THE YALE HISTORICAL REVIEW AN UNDERGRADUATE PUBLICATION SPRING 2014 THE YALE HISTORICAL REVIEW AN UNDERGRADUATE PUBLICATION The Yale Historical Review provides undergraduates an opportunity to have their exceptional work highlighted and SPRING 2014 encourages the diffusion of original historical ideas on campus by VOLUME III providing a forum for outstanding undergraduate history papers ISSUE II covering any historical topic. The Yale Historical Review Editorial Board For past issues and information regarding gratefully acknowledges the support of the submissions, advertisements, subscriptions, following donors: contributions, and our Editorial Board, please visit our website: FOUNDING PATRONS Matthew and Laura Dominski WWW.YALE.EDU/ In Memory of David J. Magoon YALEHISTORICALREVIEW Sareet Majumdar Brenda and David Oestreich Stauer Or visit our Facebook page: Derek Wang Yale Club of the Treasure Coast WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/ Zixiang Zhao YALEHISTORICALREVIEW FOUNDING CONTRIBUTORS With further questions or to provide Council on Latin American and Iberian feedback, please e-mail us at: Studies at Yale Department of History, Yale University [email protected] Peter Dominksi J.S. Renkert Joe and Marlene Toot Or write to us at: Yale Center for British Art Yale Club of Hartford THE YALE HISTORICAL REVIEW Yale Council on Middle East Studies P.O. BOX #204762 NEW HAVEN, CT 06520 CONTRIBUTORS Annie Yi The Yale Historical Review is published by Greg Weiss Yale students. Yale University is not Department of the History of Art, Yale responsible for its contents. University ON THE COVER: U.S. Coast and Geodetic Survey, Special Publication No. 7: Atlas of the Philippine Islands (Washington, DC: Government Printing Office, 1900), Biodiversity Heritage Li- brary, http://www.biodiversitylibrary.org/item/106585#page/43/mode/1up. -
Speaker Bios
Intelligence Reform and Counterterrorism after a Decade: Are We Smarter and Safer? October 16 – 18, 2014 University of Texas at Austin THURSDAY, OCTOBER 16 Blanton Museum, UT Campus 4:00-5:00pm Welcome Remarks and Discussion: Admiral William McRaven (ret.) Admiral McRaven is the ninth commander of United States Special Operations Command (USSOCOM), headquartered at MacDill Air Force Base, Fla. USSOCOM ensures the readiness of joint special operations forces and, as directed, conducts operations worldwide. McRaven served from June 2008 to June 2011 as the 11th commander of Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC) headquartered at Fort Bragg, N.C. JSOC is charged to study special operations requirements and techniques, ensure interoperability and equipment standardization, plan and conduct special operations exercises and training, and develop joint special operations tactics. He served from June 2006 to March 2008 as commander, Special Operations Command Europe (SOCEUR). In addition to his duties as commander, SOCEUR, he was designated as the first director of the NATO Special Operations Forces Coordination Centre where he was charged with enhancing the capabilities and interoperability of all NATO Special Operations Forces. McRaven has commanded at every level within the special operations community, including assignments as deputy commanding general for Operations at JSOC; commodore of Naval Special Warfare Group One; commander of SEAL Team Three; task group commander in the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility; task unit commander during Desert Storm and Desert Shield; squadron commander at Naval Special Warfare Development Group; and SEAL platoon commander at Underwater Demolition Team 21/SEAL Team Four. His diverse staff and interagency experience includes assignments as the director for Strategic Planning in the Office of Combating Terrorism on the National Security Council Staff; assessment director at USSOCOM, on the staff of the Chief of Naval Operations, and the chief of staff at Naval Special Warfare Group One. -
Killing Hope U.S
Killing Hope U.S. Military and CIA Interventions Since World War II – Part I William Blum Zed Books London Killing Hope was first published outside of North America by Zed Books Ltd, 7 Cynthia Street, London NI 9JF, UK in 2003. Second impression, 2004 Printed by Gopsons Papers Limited, Noida, India w w w.zedbooks .demon .co .uk Published in South Africa by Spearhead, a division of New Africa Books, PO Box 23408, Claremont 7735 This is a wholly revised, extended and updated edition of a book originally published under the title The CIA: A Forgotten History (Zed Books, 1986) Copyright © William Blum 2003 The right of William Blum to be identified as the author of this work has been asserted by him in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. Cover design by Andrew Corbett ISBN 1 84277 368 2 hb ISBN 1 84277 369 0 pb Spearhead ISBN 0 86486 560 0 pb 2 Contents PART I Introduction 6 1. China 1945 to 1960s: Was Mao Tse-tung just paranoid? 20 2. Italy 1947-1948: Free elections, Hollywood style 27 3. Greece 1947 to early 1950s: From cradle of democracy to client state 33 4. The Philippines 1940s and 1950s: America's oldest colony 38 5. Korea 1945-1953: Was it all that it appeared to be? 44 6. Albania 1949-1953: The proper English spy 54 7. Eastern Europe 1948-1956: Operation Splinter Factor 56 8. Germany 1950s: Everything from juvenile delinquency to terrorism 60 9. Iran 1953: Making it safe for the King of Kings 63 10. -
Anatomy of a National Security Fiasco: the George W. Bush Administration, Iraq, and Groupthink Phillip G
Anatomy of a National Security Fiasco: The George W. Bush Administration, Iraq, and Groupthink Phillip G. Henderson The Catholic University of America These were people who were selectively picking and then emphasizing pieces of intelligence, I believe, in order to support their larger purpose, which was to bring in a way that they thought possible, to bring democracy to Iraq, and through Iraq to transform the Middle East. I thought that was far-fetched. I didn’t think it was going to happen, but that was their real purpose. They thought that this was going to be a transforming event in history. My frustration is that there was never a national security decision- making process in the administration where people such as me really had a chance to take that on. Richard Haass, Director of Policy Planning at the State Department 2001-2003, Interview with Chris Matthews on “Hardball,” May 6, 2009 In February 2002, one year before the U.S. military intervention in Iraq began, neoconservative writer Ken Adelman predicted that demolishing Saddam Hussein’s regime and liberating Iraq would be a “cakewalk.”1 At a town hall meeting at the Ameri- PHILLIP G. HENDERSON is Associate Professor of Politics at The Catholic University of America. Work on this article was supported by a research grant from the Center for the Study of Statesmanship. 1 Ken Adelman, “Cakewalk in Iraq,” The Washington Post, 13 February 2002, A27. 46 • Volume XXXI, Nos. 1 and 2, 2018 Phillip G. Henderson can air base in Aviano, Italy, on February 7, 2003, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld added that, if force were to be used in Iraq, the war “could last six days, six weeks. -
May 12, 2006 Exhibits a Through F
UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 1 ) CR. NO 05-394 (RBW) v. ) ) I. LEWIS LIBBY, ) also known as "Scooter Libby" ) EXHIBITS A THROUGH F Respectfully submitted, PATRICK J. FIT~ERALD Special Counsel Office of the United States Attorney Northern District of Illinois 2 19 South Dearborn Street Chicago, Illinois 60604 (312) 353-5300 Dated: May 12,2006 Page 2 The New York Times May 6,2003 Tuesday 1 of 1 DOCUMENT Copyright 2003 The New York Times Company The New York Times May 6,2003 Tuesday Late Edition - Final SECTION: Section A; Column 1; Editorial Desk; Pg. 31 LENGTH: 726 words HEADLINE: Missing In Action: Truth BYLINE: By NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF; E-mail: [email protected] BODY: When I raised the Mystery of the Missing W.M.D. recently, hawks fired barrages of reproachful e-mail at me. The gist was: "You *&#*! Who cares if we never find weapons of mass destruction, because we've liberated the Iraqi people frOm a murderous tyrant." But it does matter, enormously, for American credibility. After all, as Ari Fleischer said on April 10 about W.M.D.: "That is what this war was about." I rejoice in the newfound freedoms in Iraq. But there are indications that the U.S.government souped up intelligence, leaned on spooks to change their conclusions and concealed contrary information to deceive people at home and around the world. Let's fervently hope that tomorrow we find an Iraqi superdome filled with 500 tons of mustard gas and nerve gas, 25,000 liters of anthrax, 38,000 liters of botulinum toxin, 29,984 prohibited munitions capable of delivering chemical agents, several dozen Scud missiles, gas centrifuges to enrich uranium, 18mobile biological warfare factories, long- range unmanned aerial vehicles to dispense anthrax, and proof of close ties with Ai Qaeda. -
Cyber, Intelligence, and Security
Cyber, Intelligence, and Security Volume 3 | No. 1 | May 2019 European Countries Facing the Challenge of Foreign Influence on Democracy—Comparative Research David Siman-Tov and Mor Buskila The Threat of Foreign Interference in the 2019 Elections in Israel and Ways of Handling it Pnina Shuker and Gabi Siboni The INF Treaty and New START: Escalation Control, Strategic Fatalism, and the Role of Cyber Stephen J. Cimbala Iranian Cyber Capabilities: Assessing the Threat to Israeli Financial and Security Interests Sam Cohen Outsourcing in Intelligence and Defense Agencies: A Risk of an Increase in the Proliferation of Cyber Weapons? Omree Wechsler The Academization of Intelligence: A Comparative Overview of Intelligence Studies in the West Kobi Michael and Aaron Kornbluth Forty-Five Years Since the Yom Kippur War: Intelligence and Risk Management in the Thirty Hours Preceding the War Shmuel Even National Cyber Security in Israel Yigal Unna Cyber, Intelligence, and Security Volume 3 | No. 1 | May 2019 Contents European Countries Facing the Challenge of Foreign Influence on Democracy—Comparative Research | 3 David Siman-Tov and Mor Buskila The Threat of Foreign Interference in the 2019 Elections in Israel and Ways of Handling it | 27 Pnina Shuker and Gabi Siboni The INF Treaty and New START: Escalation Control, Strategic Fatalism, and the Role of Cyber | 41 Stephen J. Cimbala Iranian Cyber Capabilities: Assessing the Threat to Israeli Financial and Security Interests | 71 Sam Cohen Outsourcing in Intelligence and Defense Agencies: A Risk of an Increase in the Proliferation of Cyber Weapons? | 95 Omree Wechsler The Academization of Intelligence: A Comparative Overview of Intelligence Studies in the West | 117 Kobi Michael and Aaron Kornbluth Forty-Five Years Since the Yom Kippur War: Intelligence and Risk Management in the Thirty Hours Preceding the War | 141 Shmuel Even National Cyber Security in Israel | 167 Yigal Unna The purpose of Cyber, Intelligence, and Security is to stimulate Cyber, and enrich the public debate on related issues. -
Democratization of Intelligence
Does “national character” correlate with the nature of national, strategic intelligence across a major region of the world? This question remains open and important, given that the intelligence services of any country by DEMOCRATIZATION defi nition ideally provide an institutional guarantee of national survival. In the end, public consciousness of the intelligence function can contribute OF INTELLIGENCE directly to the positive evolution of intelligence as one of the oldest of political institutions, in such a way that we can begin to identify a MELDING STRATEGIC INTELLIGENCE phenomenon of “democratization” of national intelligence. AND NATIONAL DISCOURSE Russell G. Swenson and Susana C. Lemozy Editors As may be inferred from most of the essays in this book, the emphasis on state security and control of violent criminal activity is a strong, distinctive feature of the intelligence services across the region. One possibility is to extend the research carried out for this book to a systematic comparison of the institutional framework and operational emphases in other regions where, as we know through an emerging body of comparative research, there is an impetus to institutionalize democratic reform and improve the integration of law enforcement and strategic intelligence. Intelligence studies are on the brink of making the leap to a level where they will have practical relevance. This book edited by Russell Swenson and Susana Lemozy holds importance for its presentation of usefully detailed essays and for the impetus it gives for theoretically oriented comparative studies. The book should be required reading for scholars interested in the combination of intelligence, strategic culture, security and democracy. -
National Intelligence Council's Global Trends 2040
A PUBLICATION OF THE NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE COUNCIL MARCH 2021 2040 GLOBAL TRENDS A MORE CONTESTED WORLD A MORE CONTESTED WORLD a Image / Bigstock “Intelligence does not claim infallibility for its prophecies. Intelligence merely holds that the answer which it gives is the most deeply and objectively based and carefully considered estimate.” Sherman Kent Founder of the Office of National Estimates Image / Bigstock Bastien Herve / Unsplash ii GLOBAL TRENDS 2040 Pierre-Chatel-Innocenti / Unsplash 2040 GLOBAL TRENDS A MORE CONTESTED WORLD MARCH 2021 NIC 2021-02339 ISBN 978-1-929667-33-8 To view digital version: www.dni.gov/nic/globaltrends A PUBLICATION OF THE NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE COUNCIL Pierre-Chatel-Innocenti / Unsplash TABLE OF CONTENTS v FOREWORD 1 INTRODUCTION 1 | KEY THEMES 6 | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 11 | THE COVID-19 FACTOR: EXPANDING UNCERTAINTY 14 STRUCTURAL FORCES 16 | DEMOGRAPHICS AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT 23 | Future Global Health Challenges 30 | ENVIRONMENT 42 | ECONOMICS 54 | TECHNOLOGY 66 EMERGING DYNAMICS 68 | SOCIETAL: DISILLUSIONED, INFORMED, AND DIVIDED 78 | STATE: TENSIONS, TURBULENCE, AND TRANSFORMATION 90 | INTERNATIONAL: MORE CONTESTED, UNCERTAIN, AND CONFLICT PRONE 107 | The Future of Terrorism: Diverse Actors, Fraying International Efforts 108 SCENARIOS FOR 2040 CHARTING THE FUTURE AMID UNCERTAINTY 110 | RENAISSANCE OF DEMOCRACIES 112 | A WORLD ADRIFT 114 | COMPETITIVE COEXISTENCE 116 | SEPARATE SILOS 118 | TRAGEDY AND MOBILIZATION 120 REGIONAL FORECASTS 141 TABLE OF GRAPHICS 142 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS iv GLOBAL TRENDS 2040 FOREWORD elcome to the 7th edition of the National Intelligence Council’s Global Trends report. Published every four years since 1997, Global Trends assesses the key Wtrends and uncertainties that will shape the strategic environment for the United States during the next two decades. -
Information Sources on the Web – Intelligence Bibliographies, Newsletters, Blogs, and Webliographies
Staying Informed: Information Sources on the Web – Intelligence Bibliographies, Newsletters, Blogs, and Webliographies Peter C. Oleson For those educators and interested parties who try to keep up with the world of intelligence the flood of information can be daunting. Newspaper articles, new books, scholarly journals, and web blogs that address intelligence are numerous. Many are politically motivated; none is comprehensive. Unclassified sources lack much of the primary material. Classified sources, unless leaked, are not available. Nevertheless, the following are useful resources, presented in alphabetical order. AFCEA International (Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association) publishes Signal magazine monthly, which contains numerous intelligence-related articles and news. AFCEA also publishes via its website webinars and white papers related to intelligence. www.afcea.org. AFCEA also has a monthly intelligence- related blog, the MAZZINT Blog. Air University has an excellent compilation of intelligence-related materials with many links to articles and relevant websites at its “Gateway to Intelligence.” http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/awc-ntel.htm. The American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats project tracks and provides analysis of key and emerging threats to national security. http://www.aei.org/feature/critical-threats-project/. The Association of Former Intelligence Officers (AFIO) is an education-oriented national association and has two major recurring publications. The Weekly Intelligence Notes (WIN), available to paid members, provides synopses and links to major intelligence-related news stories. The WINs also have a comprehensive calendar of intelligence-related events, including for the International Spy Museum in Washington, D.C. AFIO’s journal, Intelligencer, carries articles, opinion pieces, book reviews, and association news.