Banks in Turkey 2018 Banks in Turkey 2018

JUNE 2019

BANKS IN TURKEY 2018 BANKS IN TURKEY 2018

Publication No : 332

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viii Economic Developments and Banking System, 2018

I-1

Economic Developments and Banking Sector, 2018

World Economy Inflation increased

Global growth continued The inflation rate increased in both developed and developing countries in In 2018, the world economy had a quite mixed 2018. Inflation in developed countries was outlook. The risk perception was quite high. The realized at 2 percent level. Inflation rate in policy differences in the developed and developing developing countries was 4.9 percent. countries and the approach of each country to choose the best for itself made the solution of global US interest rates continue to rise problems difficult and subsequently increased the growth differences between countries and regions. In the US, policy interest rates continued to Protectionist approaches to trade adversely affected increase gradually in 2018 following strong international trade. growth and employment data. While the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Selected Macroeconomic Indicators Japan (BoJ) kept their policy rates at low Forecast 2017 2018 2019 2020 levels, the Bank of England raised interest Growth Rate rates in 2018. The Federal Reserve also World 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.6 Developed Countries 2.4 2.3 2.0 1.7 took steps towards the reduction of the Developing Countries 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.9 balance sheet. Different approaches in the World Trade Volume 5.3 4.0 4.0 4.0 monetary policy of developed countries led Inflation World 3.3 4.2 3.6 3.5 to increased uncertainties in money and Developed Countries 1.7 2.0 1.7 2.0 Developing Countries 4.3 4.9 5.1 4.6 capital markets and price fluctuations. Public debt stock to gdp Developed Countries 103 103 103 102 The ratio of debt stock to gdp increased Developing Countries 49 50 52 53 Commodity Price Index (2005=100) 116 136 135 131 Source: IMF. World Economic Outlook. April 2019 According to the Institute of International Finance (IIF), in 2018, while the share of In international financial markets, borrowing facilities non-financial institutions' debt stock to gdp were more limited and the amount of capital flows to declined, debt stock of household, financial developing countries decreased. Borrowing interest institutions, and the public sector rates followed a rising trend. Oil prices followed an increased. The ratio of total debt stock to increasingly fluctuating course. Pressure remained gdp was realized as 317 percent. high in geopolitics. While the EU was experiencing the challenges of the global crisis, an important issue Global Debt like Brexit could not be concluded. (As percentage of gdp) 321 Under the influence of these developments, the world economy has been estimated to grow by 3.7 317 317 percent in 2018. In developed countries, the growth 316 rate was 2.3 percent and in developing countries it 313 was around 4.6 percent. Mainly to be stemming from developed countries, global growth is expected to be lower in 2019.

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Global trade slowed down Source: IIF

The global trade, which grew by more than 5 percent in 2017, slowed down in 2018 and declined to 4 percent. In 2018, commodity prices and oil prices increased by 18 percent, and 31 percent, respectively.

I-1

Turkey Economy: Summary The rapid depreciation of TL, rising interest Transformation into the Presidential System of rates, and decreasing liquidity affected the Government balance sheets of the real sector firms with exchange rate and interest risk. The Following the referendum in June 2018, the demand for loans increased with the Presidential Government System was adopted in liquidity needs, and difficulties were July 2018. In the new system, in order to increase experienced in debt payments. In order to the efficiency of management in the economy, some support and improve the ability of their ministries were merged and some departments were willing clients to pay their debts, the banks restructured as directorates and aligned with the kept credit channels open in every period Presidency. and provided flexibility in terms of maturity, payment and guarantee conditions for 2018 was a tough year them through evaluating the individual financial status, solvency and long-term Next to the unstable course in global economy, borrower-payer relationship of each client fluctuations in international money and capital separately and carefully, based on mutual markets, and more selective actions taken by good faith. investors; reasons such as the tensions in the political arena with the United States, suggestive Growth decelerated declarations of potential sanctions to Turkey by the USA, the lack of concrete progress in the Gross domestic product increased by 2.6 membership negotiations with the EU affected the percent in real terms on TL basis, but economic performance of Turkey. decreased by 8 percent on dollar basis. Income per capita was recorded as TL Due to the slowdown in international capital inflows, 45,463 (USD 9,632). demand for TL declined sharply and rapidly. As of end of the third quarter, the depreciation of TL Employment and labor force accelerated, inflation expectations worsened and participation rates increased foreign exchange reserves decreased. In order to defend TL and to reduce volatility in money markets, In the year 2018, employment increased by short-term interest rates were raised. 631 thousand, while labor force participation rate rose by 0.4 percentage In order to increase predictability and resistance to points. Number of unemployed was 3.5 shocks, the New Economy Program (NEP) was million, and the unemployment rate was 11 declared in order to balance the macro aggregates percent. and establish a stable environment for economic activity. Domestic and foreign markets welcomed the Budget target was reached programme, the fluctuations in asset prices remained calm, credit risk premium decreased, and Despite the slowdown in economic growth the depreciation of TL stopped. and the spending-enhancing effect of tax incentives, the ratio of the budget deficit to In order to support production, investment, and gdp was 2 percent, as targeted in the New trade, tax deductions were made in some locomotive Economic Program. sectors, incentives were maintained, and employment premiums were provided. Treasury- Budget revenues and expenses increased guaranteed support loans were provided for SMEs. by 20 and 22 percent in nominal terms, The banking sector also made significant respectively. The budget deficit increased contributions in supporting economic activity. by 52 percent compared to the previous Foreign debt rollover ratios were tried to be kept high year and was realized as TL 73 billion. and open, constructive and sincere communication was established with the real sector to determine the needs correctly, and efforts were made towards provision of the right solution.

I-2

Inflation rose Policy rate increased

Due to the depreciation of TL, the increase in energy With the deterioration in inflation and food prices, inflation has increased during the expectations, the Central Bank took first three quarters of the year and it started to tightening measures. While monetary decline in the last quarter. Annual inflation was 20.3 policy instruments were simplified during percent in CPI and 33.6 percent in PPI. the year, the policy rate was increased from 19.25 percent to 24 percent in September. Current account deficit tightened As of 2018, the policy rate (average funding cost) increased from 12.75 percent to 24 Current account deficit reduced by 41 percent to percent. USD 28 billion dollars compared to the previous year. The ratio of current account deficit to gdp TL depreciated declined by 200 basis points to 3.5 percent. The real exchange rate index which was 86 Reserves decreased in December 2017 decreased to 76 in December 2018. Net capital outflows were seen in 2018 mainly due to portfolio investments. While direct investments Measures were taken in TL and foreign continued to be limited, net errors and omissions currency liquidity due to the fluctuations in item, which accounted for USD 21 billion in inflows, financial markets in August. The Central played an important role in financing the current Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) account deficit. As a result, official reserves started to negotiate the TL FX- decreased. denominated forward transactions and set up Turkish Lira currency swap market in November.

I-3

Turkey Economy Gdp (Percentage change in constant price) Growth rate fell down

Gross domestic product (gdp) increased by 2.6 7.4 percent in constant prices and 19 percent in current 6.1 prices in 2018 amounting to TL 3,701 billion. Gdp 5.2 declined by 8 percent on dollar basis to USD 784 3.2 billion. Per capita income declined by 9 percent to 2.6 USD 9,362, while gdp deflator realized at the level of 16 percent.

The industrial sector grew by 1.1 percent, the 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 agricultural sector grew by 6 percent, and the Source: Turkstat. services sector grew by 5.6 percent. Contraction in the construction sector was 1.9 percent. Gdp 2016 2017 2018 Final consumption expenditures of households grew Growth rate (percent) by 1.1 percent in real terms, while consumption In current prices 12 19 19 expenditures of the public sector increased by 3.6 In constant prices 3.2 7.4 2.6 Deflator (percent) 8.1 10.8 16.0 percent. Investments declined by 1.7 percent. Gdp (current prices) TL billion 2,609 3,107 3,701 Exports increased by 7 percent, while imports USD billion 863 851 784 declined by 8 percent. Net exports made a Per capita income (USD) 10,882 10,597 9,632 contribution of 3.6 percentage points to annual Source: Turkstat. growth.

Savings ratio increased Domestic Savings and Savings Balance (As percentage of gdp) According to forecasts of Strategy and Budget Directorate, the ratio of domestic savings to gdp rose 2016 2017 2018 Domestic savings 24.4 25.4 25.9 by 0.5 percentage points to 25.9 percent. Savings Public 2.7 2.4 1.2 ratio decreased by 1.2 percentage points in the Private 21.7 23.0 24.7 Savings balance -3.8 -5.6 -4.7 public sector, and increased by 1.7 percent in the Public -1.4 -1.9 -3.0 private sector. Savings ratio was estimated to be 3 Private -2.4 -3.7 -1.7 Source: Strategy and Budget Directorate percent of gdp in public sector, and 1.7 percent of gdp in private sector. The savings was estimated to be at the level of 3 percent in the public sector and Population and Median Age 1.7 percent in the private sector.

Young and dynamic population 90 35

80 The population of Turkey was 82 million as of 2018. 30 When age of population is listed in ascending sort, 70 25 median age is 32 compared to the previous year. 60 The annual rate of population growth increased to 20 14.7 per thousand. Population of Turkey covers 55.6 50 million people (68 percent) at working age. 40 15 1985 1990 2000 2010 2017 2018 Labor force participation continues to increase Population (million people) Median age (year, rhs)

Labor supply was 32.3 million, and employment was Source: Turkstat. 28.7 million. While employment increased by 631 thousand, labor force participation rate rose by 0.4 Labor Force Indicators percentage points in 2018. Number of unemployed 2016 2017 2018 was 3.5 million, and unemployment rate was 11 Employed (million people) 27.2 28.2 28.7 Labor force participation rate (%) 52.0 52.8 53.2 percent. Unemployment rate (%) 10.9 10.9 11.0 Youth people unemployment rate (%) 19.6 20.8 20.3 The increase of hourly labor cost of employees was Source: Turkstat. 23 percent. The rate of increase was 25 percent in industry sector and 19 percent in service sector, respectively.

I-4

Inflation increased Inflation (Annual percentage change Consumer prices (CPI) and producer prices (PPI) 46 increased by 20.3 percent and 33.6 percent, respectively. CPI and PPI were well above the 34 target, as a result of the pass-through effect of TL 24 25 volatility, increase in food prices, the increase in 20 basic import input prices due to the devaluation of 16 14 15 12 11 TL. Inflation slowed down starting from the last quarter of the year. Annual average price increase was 16.3 percent and 27 percent for CPI and PPI, Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 respectively. CPI PPI Source: Turkstat Tightening monetary policy Balance Sheet of the Central Bank, Since inflation continued to rise, a more stringent (Selected Items TL billion) liquidity policy was implemented. While the Central 2017 2018 Bank made a gradual tightening in the first two Dec. Mar. Jun. Sep. Dec. quarters, the monetary policy was simplified in June. Net foreign assets 124 114 134 170 169 124 Net domestic Thus, the weekly repo rate became the policy rate. 49 49 57 44 16 49 assets In addition, overnight borrowing and lending rates Open market 118 109 120 155 96 118 were set at a margin of 150 basis points around the operations (net) Monetary base 173 163 192 214 185 173 policy rate. Source: CBRT

In the last quarter of the year, a strong tightening in monetary policy was achieved and the policy rate was raised to 24 percent. Funding was done with Interest Rates (Compound, period end), Exchange weekly repo. Thus, the weighted average funding Rates and Inflation (Annual percentage change) rate increased and became the policy rate. 2017 2018 Dec. Mar. Jun. Sep. Dec. Interest rate With the depreciation of TL and the increase in Weighted ave. cost of 13 13 18 24 24 volatility, TL settled forward FX transactions were CBRT funding Benchmark G. bonds 13 14 19 24 19 initiated in Borsa Istanbul Derivatives Market (VIOP). Exchange rates (ann. chg.) In addition, the Turkish Lira currency swap market USD/TL 16 3 22 59 45 EUR/TL 26 19 32 57 41 started to be used in November. Inflation (CPI, yoy. chg.) 12 10 15 25 20 Source: CBRT, Turkstat, Ministry of Treasury and Finance

As of the year-end net domestic assets of the Central Bank decreased by TL 33 billion to TL 16 billion. Net Deposit and Loan Interest Rate (Percent) foreign assets increased by TL 45 billion to TL 169 billion. The monetary base increased by TL 12 32 billion. The monetary base which was progressive 28 during the first three quarters decreased by TL 30 24 billion in the last quarter of 2018. 20 16 Interest rates rose 12 Average funding cost reached to 24 percent. The 8 benchmark bond interest rate increased by 580 basis points and realized as 18.8 percent.

TL Commercial Loan Rate TL Deposit Rate (3 months) Deposits and loan interest rates increased sharply Source: CBRT as from the second quarter. The weighted average interest rate of 3-month TL deposits that was 13.8 percent at the end of 2017 increased to 24.2 percent, while commercial loan interest rates increased from 17.6 percent to 30.4 percent at the end of the year. The interest rates of consumer loans increased by 14 percentage points and realized as 31.7 percent.

I-5

TL depreciated in real terms

TL depreciated by 45 percent against USD and by CPI Based Real Effective Exchange Rate 41 percent against Euro. The rate of depreciation on (2003=100) WKH EDVNHW ¼ ZDV SHUFHQW The real 100 exchange rate index calculated by taking into 90 account the consumer inflation decreased by 12 percent to 76. 80

Foreign exchange reserves decreased 70 Gross foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank decreased by USD 16 billion while the gold 60 reserves increased by USD 6 billion. As of the year- end, foreign exchange reserves and the gold reserves were at the level of USD 68 billion and USD Source: CBRT 18 billion, respectively. On the other hand, correspondent accounts of banks increased by USD 15 billion, and total foreign exchange reserves &HQWUDO%DQN¶V)[ Reserves and Net Fx Position reduced by USD 7 billion. (USD billion)

Budget deficit close to the target 2017 2018 Dec. Mar. Dec. Mar. Dec. Budget revenues and expenditures rose by 20 Fx reserves 84 85 76 67 72 percent and 22 percent in nominal terms, Gold reserves 24 25 23 18 20 Net Fx position 36 33 32 28 30 respectively. Increase in expenditures was mainly Source: CBRT due to non-interest expenditures. Indirect taxes accounted for 65 percent of the tax revenues.

The budget deficit increased by 52 percent to TL 73 Central Government Budget billion compared to the previous year. Ratios of TL billion Perc change. As perc. of budget revenues and expenditures to gdp were 20.5 2018* gdp percent and 22.4 percent, respectively. The ratio of Revenues 758 30 20.5 Expenditures 830 22 22.4 budget deficit to gdp was 2 percent. Ratios of total Interest 74 30 2.0 public revenues and expenditures to gdp were 32.7 Non-interest 756 22 20.4 Budget balance -73 52 -2.0 percent and 35.1 percent, respectively. Thus the Primary balance 1 -85 0.0 ratio of public sector borrowing requirement to gdp Financing 88 61 2.4 realized as 2.7 percent. The ratio of public sector External borrowing 10 -43 0.0 primary deficit to gdp was realized at 0.5 percent Domestic borrowing 50 -24 1.6 Other 27 -30 0 level with an increase of 0.7 percentage points. Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance Public sector realized a net domestic borrowing of * Provisional.

TL 50 billion, while net foreign borrowing was TL 10 billion. Average cumulative maturity of domestic Budget Deficit to Gdp (Percent) cash borrowings was 59.3 months compared to the previous year. Maastricht Criteria, 3 percent Public sector has realized a net domestic borrowing of 50 billion TL, while net foreign borrowing was 10 billion dollar. Average cumulative maturity of 2.0 domestic borrowing was 59.3 months. The share of 1.5 debt in outstanding domestic debt which will be due 1.1 1.1 within 12 months, by 1.1 percentage points to 13.9 1.0 percent compared to the previous year.

Outstanding domestic debt remained at a low 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 level Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance Outstanding domestic debt was TL 633 billion and its ratio to gdp was 17 percent. The total debt stock, resulting from the addition of TL equivalent of outstanding external debt of TL 481 billion of the public sector, became TL 1,144 billion corresponding to 31 percent of gdp.

I-6

The ratio of EU-defined general government gross debt to gdp increased by 2.1 percentage points to 30.4 percent level compared to the previous year. EU Defined General Government Gross Debt The rate was well below Maastricht criterion of 60 (As percentage of Gdp) percent. 60 Maastricht Criteria, 60 percent 50 Gross outstanding domestic debt was composed of 40 fixed interest securities of 75 percent, floating rate 30.4 28.8 27.6 28.3 28.3 securities of 12 percent and inflation-indexed 30 securities of 13 percent. 53.6 percent of the 20 outstanding domestic debt was held by banks, 30.2 10 percent by non-bank institutions and 14 percent by foreign investors. 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

The ratio of outstanding domestic debt to broadly Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance defined money supply (deposits, currency in circulation, repo and mutual funds, M2RF) was 27 percent and its ratio to bank assets was 16 percent. Public Sector Borrowing Requirement (As percentage of Gdp) The ratio of financial assets to gdp declined 3 2.7 The ratio of demand for financial assets to gdp decreased by 10 percentage points. The decrease in the stock market value was prominent in this 2 1.8 decline. The ratio of money and quasi money 1.1 financial assets demand to gdp was around 59 1 percent. 0.5

0.0 The ratio of the market value of stocks decreased by 0 7 percentage points to 21 percent level. While the 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 ratio of government domestic borrowing securities to Source: Strategy and Budget Directorate gdp decreased 1 percentage point to 16 percent. Financial Assets The ratio of bond and bills issued by private sector (As percentage of Gdp) companies to gdp reduced below 1 percent. The 2016 2017 2018 ratio of funds to gdp remained at 4 percent. Thus, Money and quasi-money 61 60 59 Cash 5 4 4 the ratio of capital markets to gdp realized as 41 Deposits 56 55 55 percent. TL 32 31 28 Fx 23 24 27 Repos 0 0 0 Market value of companies decreased Capital market 46 50 41 Equity (market value) 24 28 21 Borsa Istanbul 100 index lost value by 21 percent in Bonds and bills 19 18 16 Turkish lira and by 43 percent on dollar basis in Public 18 17 16 Private 1 1 0 2018. Total transaction volume increased by 32 Individual retirement 4 4 4 percent to TL 297 billion. The ratio of market value Total 107 110 100 Source: CBRT. Capital Markets Board. companies traded on the stock market to gdp decreased by 7 percentage points to 21 percent. Market Value of Financial Institutions

32 The number of companies traded on the stock 100 market increased by 2 to 407. Market value 80 30 28 decreased by 8 percent to TL 790 billion (USD 150 60 26 billion). Market value of banks and financial 40 institutions decreased by 22 percent (USD 12 billion) 24 to USD 43 billion on dollar basis, compared to the 20 22 previous year. 0 20 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 The ratio of market value of financial institutions to Market Value (billion dollars) Share in Total (Percentage, right axis) total market value was around 29 percent. The ratio of the market value to the book value was 0.84 for 6RXUFH%RUVDøVWDQEXO WKHEDQNLQJVHFWRUDQGIRU%RUVDøVWDQEXOZKHQ the banks were excluded.

I-7

Foreign trade deficit decreased Foreign Trade (USD billion)

2016 2017 2018 Foreign trade volume remained almost the same at Exports 143 157 168 Imports 199 234 223 USD 391 billion level. The ratio of foreign trade Foreign trade deficit 56 77 55 volume to gdp was 49 percent, while the ratio of Foreign trade deficit/gdp (%) 9 9 7 Source: Turkstat foreign trade deficit to gdp was 7 percent. While the ratio of exports to gdp stood at 21 percent level, the ratio of imports to gdp was 28 percent. Imports Coverage Ratio (Percent) Foreign trade deficit decreased by 28 percent to USD 55 billion compared to the previous year. The import 75 coverage ratio increased by 8 percentage points to 72 69 75 percent. 67 65 Imports decreased by 4.6 percent to USD 223 billion. Exports grew by 7 percent to USD 168 billion. With the depreciation of TL, the contraction in domestic demand caused imports to decline, while the growth 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 performance of our most important trade partner, the Source: Turkstat EU economy, supported exports. Foreign Trade by Commodity Groups (2018)

Total imports were comprised of 10 percent Export Import USD Perc. Perc. USD Perc. consumption goods and 76 percent intermediate Perc. goods. Euro accounted for 32 percent and USD Billion chg. share Billion chg. share Capital goods 20 8 12 29 -12 13 accounted for 61 percent of the imports; while for the Interm. goods 79 9 47 170 -1 76 exports, these figures were 49 percent and 42 Cons. goods 68 5 41 23 -20 10 Other 1 12 0 1 11 0 percent, respectively. The share of TL in total foreign Total 168 7 100 223 -5 100 trade was 9.8 percent. Source: Turkstat

Quantitatively, exports and imports decreased by 3 percent and 28 percent, respectively. Price index Current Account Balance to Gdp (Percentage) decreased by 4 percent in exports and while it increased by 13 percent in imports.

The ratio of current account deficit to gdp decreased

Current account deficit decreased by 41 percent to -3.4 -3.5 -3.8 USD 28 billion, compared to the previous year. The -4.7 ratio of current account deficit to gdp was 3.5 -5.5 percent. 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Source: CBRT, Turkstat While the contraction in the foreign trade deficit was the most effective cause of the decline in the current account deficit, the 17 percent increase in net Capital and Financial Account (USD billion) tourism revenues also contributed to the decline in 2016 2017 2018 the current account deficit. Current account -33 -47 -28 Financial account (net) 23 39 -4 Direct invest. abroad (net) 11 9 10 Net capital outflow of USD 4 billion was recorded in Portfolio investments (net) 6 24 -3 Other investments (net) 6 5 -10 year 2018 Net capital inflows through direct Net errors and omissions 11 1 21 investments was USD 10 billion, and net outflow General balance -1 8 10 Official reserves 1 -8 -10 through portfolio investments was USD 3 billion. Source: CBRT

Net capital outflows in other investments including external borrowings of the banks and private sector was USD 10 billion.

I-8

The net error omission item, which had a foreign Outstanding External Debt (USD billion) exchange inflow of USD 1 billion in 2017, reached 2016 2017 2018 USD 21 billion in 2018. Consequently, official Long term 308 336 329 Public 104 114 118 reserves decreased by USD 10 billion. Central Bank 1 0 0 Private 204 221 211 Outstanding external debt decreased Financial institutions 106 113 103 Non-financial institutions 97 107 108 Outstanding external debt increased by USD 8 Short term 102 120 116 Public 20 22 22 billion to USD 146 billion in public sector, while that Central Bank 0 2 6 of private sector decreased by USD 19 billion to USD Private 81 96 88 Financial institutions 43 47 36 298 billion. Thus outstanding external debt Non-financial institutions 39 49 52 decreased by USD 11 billion to USD 445 billion. Total 410 456 445 Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance The long-term external debt and short-term external debt decreased by USD 7 billion and USD 4 billion, FX Assets and Liabilities of Non-Financial Companies respectively. Thus, the share of short-term (USD billion) 2016 2017 2018 outstanding external debt in total debt stock Assets 99 115 115 amounted to 26.1 percent. Public sector held 33 Liabilities 305 327 317 FX Position -206 -212 -201 percent (including Central Bank), and private sector Short-term assets 81 94 92 held 67 percent of the outstanding external debt. The Short-term liabilities 79 87 90 Short-term FX position 1 7 1 debt of private financial institutions was USD 139 Source: CBRT billion, while that of non-financial private companies was USD 159 billion. Outstanding External Debt to Gdp Official creditors and private creditors held USD 56 (Percentage) billion and USD 156 billion in long-term outstanding external debt, respectively. Bonds constituted USD 60 116 billion of the long-term outstanding external 50 debt. Among the official creditors, debts to 40 international organizations constituted the highest 30 share with USD 40 billion. 20

According to the Central Bank data, assets of non- 10 financial sector companies was USD 119 billion, 0 while their liabilities decreased by USD 10 billion to 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 USD 317 billion in 2018. Net foreign exchange deficit Government Private of these companies decreased from USD 212 billion Source: Ministry of Treasury and Finance to USD 201 billion.

The ratio of outstanding external debt to gdp was Debt 57 percent (As percentage of Gdp)

The ratio of long-term debts to gdp increased by 3 160 33 percentage points to 42 percent, while the ratio of 25 28 120 22 23 34 short-term debts to gdp increased by 1 percentage 29 29 31 28 point to 15 percent. The ratio of outstanding external 80 debt of public sector (including the Central Bank) to 56 62 68 69 75 gdp was 19 percent, while that of private sector was 40 at 38 percent level. 19 18 18 17 0 15 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 The ratio of household debt/gdp was low Household Non Financial Government Finance Source: IIF The ratio of household debt/gdp was 157 percent. This ratio was 15 percent in households, 75 percent in non-financial firms, and 33 percent in financial institutions.

In Turkey, this ratio was below the average of that of developed and developing countries.

I-9

New Economic Program (NEP) is expected that growth rate will gradually rise to 5 percent in 2019-2021 period

New Economy Program includes targets of the basic macroeconomic figures for the period 2019-2021.

The three basic principles of the program are Main Economic Indicators* ³HFRQRPLFEDODQFLQJ´³ILVFDOGLVFLSOLQH´DQG´FKDQJH (Percentage)

in production and exports with focus on value 2019 2020 2021 DGGHG´ Growth (Perc. change in constant 2.3 3.5 5.0 price) Current account balance to gdp -3.3 -2.7 -2.6 An action plan was adopted within the scope of New CPI 15.9 9.8 6.0 Economic Program (NEP). The action plan Unemployment rate 12.1 11.9 10.8 Public balance to gdp 1.8 1.9 1.7 consisted of measures on public finance, banking, Primary balance to gdp 0.8 1.0 1.3 real sector, tax implementations and sectoral * Forecast Source:: SBB projects; and the monitoring of the effectiveness of the plan through these measures.

Accordingly, the Program aimed that the gdp growth will gradually increase to 5 percent in the period of 2019-2021.

According to the Program, inflation rate will be 15.9 percent level in 2019, and inflation will decline to 9.8 percent, and 6 percent in 2020 and 2021, respectively. It is estimated that the ratio of current account deficit to gdp will follow a downward path throughout the Program period and will decline to 2.6 percent in 2020.

I-10

Measures taken by the CBRT for January 2018 ± March 2019 Period Subject Explanation The late liquidity window (LON) facility lending interest rate was raised from 12.75 percent to 16.5 percent. The one-week repo auction interest rate was decided to be policy rate and equalized Interest Rate to the current funding rate (16.50%). Policy Overnight borrowing and lending rates were determined by a margin of -/+150 basis points compared to the one-week repo auction rate. The policy rate was raised to 24 percent and the entire funding was again provided by weekly repo auctions. Turkish lira and foreign exchange reserve requirement ratios were reduced, and Flexibilities were achieved in TL and FX liquidity management. Reserve The upper limit of TL reserve requirements in standard gold kind arising out of Requirements processed or scrap golds collected from domestic residents increased from 5 percent to 10 percent. Within the framework of reserve options mechanism (ROM), the foreign exchange ROM maintenance facility rate upper limit was reduced from 45 percent to 40 percent. Collaterals, discount rates and repo auctions were diversified for TL liquidity relief. TL liquidity and Collateral foreign exchange deposit limits were increased. funding It was decided to suspend the one-week repo auctions for a period of time. It was decided to open the Turkish Lira currency swap market at the Central Bank The limits of the banks in the swap market the limits of the foreign exchange and the effective markets were determined and the limits were increased in the following Swap period. Transactions Turkish Lira-Settled Forward Foreign Exchange Purchase and Sale Transactions were allowed to be conducted at the BIST Derivatives Market (VIOP). The swap agreement was signed with an overall limit of USD 3 billion with Qatar Central Bank. It was provided that the repayments of rediscount loans for export and foreign exchange earning services that have been extended before 25 May 2018, which Rediscount Loans will be due by 31 July 2018 (included), could be made in Turkish liras at an exchange rate of 4.2 for the USD, 4.9 for the Euro, and 5.6 for the GBP, provided that they were paid at maturity. For foreign exchange liquidity, foreign exchange deposit limits types were increased, effective provision of foreign currency exchange was provided and the Foreign exchange Turkish Central Bank became an intermediary in foreign exchange depot market. liquidity

I-11

Measures Taken by BRSA for January 2018 ± March 2019 Period Subject Explanation Date Amending the terms of the contract and/or partial or total refinancing of loans under the 1st Group and the debtor of which is not in financial difficulty, shall August 18 not be considered within the scope of restructuring and will be continue to Authority be monitored under in 1st Group. initiative Due to speculative fluctuations, the valuation differences arising on the (Forbearance) securities for which a fair value difference is reflected should not be taken August 18 Measures into consideration in the VKDUHKROGHUV¶ HTXLW\ calculated for the capital adequacy. Banks were allowed to calculate their provisions with the exchange rate as of August 18 June 30, 2018.

Total notional principle amount of banks' currency swaps and other similar products (spot+forward FX transactions) with foreign counterparties where at the initial date local banks pay TRY and receive FX should not exceed 25 SHUFHQWRIWKHEDQN¶VUHJXODWRU\FDSLWDO,QWKLVUHJDUGXQOHVVFXUUHQWH[FHVV August 18 is eliminated, no further transactions of these types could be executed and maturing transaction should not be renewed.

Swap Within the scope of the restriction on the SWAP, forward, option and similar Transactions other non-swap derivative trades that will be conducted by banks to purchase August 18 TL on due dates were also included. Out of the transactions covered by the 25 percent limitation transactions conducted by banks with their foreign affiliates and subsidiaries subject to September consolidation and identified as credit institutions and financial institutions are 18 exempted from the calculation. In calculation of the transactions covered by the 25 percent limitation, transactions subject to 90 to 360 days maturity will be taken into account at September a rate of 75 percent, and transactions subject to 360 days or more maturity 18 will be taken into account at a rate of 50 percent. Duration of installments in credit card payments was increased from six months to twelve months in computer purchases and transportation-related expenditures, and from nine months to twelve months in domestic February expenditures regarding travel agencies and in expenditures for healthcare 19 Number of and social services, and overall installment limit on corporate credit cards was Installments increased from nine months to twelve months. In jewelry-related expenditures subjected to ban on installment payments, the duration of installments was raised to four months for jewelry items which are March 19 not printed or ingested.

I-12

Measures Taken in January 2018 ± March 2019 Period Institution Explanation Date The use of foreign currency in contracts entered into among residents September domestic contracts was restricted. 18 Presidency of the The operation and structure of Turkiye Wealth Fund Management September Republic of Company was changed 18 Turkey The official institutions related to the economy were restructured and the July 18 number of the ministries was reduced. February Total struggle with inflation was launched. 19 At least 80 percent of export revenues was required to be brought home September and to be converted into TL. 18 Ministry of Tax discounts were applied on purchases of automobiles, white goods and December Treasury and furniture. 18 Finance September New Economic Program (NEP) was announced. 18 December Discounts were made in VAT rates and land registry fees in house sales 18 Sliding scale system is started in fuel system. May 18 It is aimed to legalize the buildings which are not legally compliant within Ministry of the scope of the Reconstruction Peace. Environment and June 18

Urbanization

Financial Restructuring Framework Agreement was approved and entered September BRSA/BAT into force. 18 BAT / TOBB Financial and Real Sector Consultation Process was initiated. August 18

Real Sector and Finance Sector Dialogue Strengthening Meetings

In cooperation with the Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges of Turkey (TOBB) "Strengthening Dialogue with Finance Sector and the Real Sector Meetings" were held. Through the participation of the President of Banks Association of Turkey and high level banking sector executives of member banks together with TOBB Chairman, TOBB Board of Directors and senior executives, it was aimed to bring together trade chambers, industry chambers with the banking-corporate sector representatives for exchange of information in the cities and provinces visited. After the main meeting where a presentation about the banking and finance sector was shared with the participants, the questions of the participating businessmen were answered and their opinions and suggestions were received in the private meetings.

Within the framework of the Dialogue Strengthening Meetings, the following meetings are held in the given order:

x 3 November Denizli, x 3 December Kocaeli, x 4 November Konya, x 'HFHPEHU7HNLUGD÷ x 1RYHPEHUø]PLU x 25 December Bursa, x 1RYHPEHUøVWDQEXO x 9 January Samsun, x 21 November Kayseri, x 17 January Erzurum, x 1RYHPEHU'L\DUEDNÕU x 01 February Ankara, x 30 November Adana, x 08 February Antalya, x 18 February Malatya

I-13 General Assessment of the Banking Sector 1 rate. Due to the disruption in the cash flows, some firms requested a structuring In the first half of the year, banking sector growth depending on the difficulties they faced. In which indicated a similar course like the national some companies, performance problems income, lost momentum in the second half due to were encountered due to changes in their fluctuations in markets and slowdown in economic partnership structures. This situation activity. The balance sheet growth which was 14 increased the sensitivity to the asset percent in the first half, in fixed exchange rates, quality of the banking sector. At a period was realized as 7 percent at the end of the year. these were experienced, international accounting standards, which introduced The average interest rate on three-month maturity changes in the classification of banks' deposit, which was 16 percent at the end of the first loans and provisioning, began to be half, rose to 24 percent in the third quarter, the implemented simultaneously in 2018. With commercial loan interest rate, which was 23 the new regulation, the factor that has percent, increased to 35 percent. Foreign exchange gained importance in the classification of deposit interest rates also increased in a similar loans has bHHQWKHFRQFHSWRI³VLJQLILFDQW manner suddenly and rapidly. increase in loan ULVN´ 'XH WR H[WHUQDO developments, the calculations made Loan supply and demand also slowed down. In a taking this factor into consideration within period when liquidity management was gaining the context of exchange rate and interest importance, banks looked more carefully at the rate increases, loans received to the stage quality of the demand in meeting the loan needs. In 2 increased. addition to meeting the demand for financing the economic activity that will support growth; a soft The banks tried to explain to the investors ground was created to minimize the fragilities WKDWGXHWRWKH´VLJQLILFDQWLQFUHDVHLQloan caused by the transition to a sudden slowdown ULVN´ GHILQHG DV D UHVXOW RI WKH PRGHOV through the renewal or restructuring of loans. developed by the banks within themselves, the loans classified as the The banking sector has made a great effort to stage 2 were needed to be considered not inform the foreign investors about the reasons as such problematic; that it would be more behind the developments in the markets, their accurate to interpret the loan as a partial effects on the balance sheets and the measures reduction in credibility compared to the taken as well as to keep the external debt rollover date when the loan was first issued; that ratio high. The most important issues were that the after structuring the loan performance is developments in the markets were not due to the high for those firms with strong collaterals, changes in macro balances, that these were despite their difficulties in payments; and independent from the current and potential course finally a high rate of loan collection was of the basic economic aggregates, that the realized for the closely monitored loans. economy management continued to take the necessary decisions within the market rules and Within the framework of the New with a liberal economic approach; and further that Economic Program (NEP), the BRSA the banking sector operated with regulations carried out stress testing to determine the aligned to international rules and had the flexibility financial structures and asset quality of and experience in managing shocks and risks and banks. In the study aimed at estimating finally that the issues related to measurement the effects of loan classification changes, differences of asset quality were caused by the it was estimated that the NPL ratio of implementation of international accounting loans in the banking sector could increase standards which began in 2018. to 6 percent in 2019, and the capital adequacy ratio was estimated to decrease The increase in the share of foreign exchange to 15.5 percent. The BRSA stated that the loans in loan debts of real sector companies raised banking sector maintains its healthy and their sensitivity to exchange rate risk and interest strong structure and that the existing capital structure is capable of managing the risks related to asset quality. 1 Unless otherwise stated, it includes deposits, development and investment and participation banks. BRSA data is used

I-14 The ratio of total assets to gdp was 104 percent Special provisions set aside for 72 percent of non-performing loans. The ratio of Total assets increased by 19 percent and reached general provisions to loans classified in TL 3,867 billion (USD 732 billion) on an annual the stage 2 was 14 percent. basis. The ratio of total assets to gdp was 104 Return on equity was 13.7 percent percent level. Loans and securities had shares of 62 percent and 12 percent in total assets, Net profit volume increased by 9 percent respectively. to TL 53.5 billion. Profit volume declined by 22 percent on dollar basis. A 53 percent of assets were financed by deposits, while that of 26 percent by non-deposit funds. The Return on equity decreased from 14.9 UDWLRRIVKDUHKROGHUV¶HTXLW\WRWRWDODVVHWVZDV percent to 13.7 percent. Difference percent. between return on equity and return on government bond was 4.5 percentage High level of capital adequacy points. 6KDUHKROGHUV¶ HTXLW\ LQFUHDVHG E\ 7/ ELOOLRQ WR TL 421 billion (USD 80 billion). Capital adequacy Net FX position gave a long position ratio realized at the level of 17.3 per cent. Core The ratio of FX assets in total assets was capital with 13.8 percent kept its high level. 44 percent, and FX funds in total liabilities Loan to deposit ratio reduced was 50 percent. On-balance-sheet net FX position was USD -34 billion, while total In the last quarter of the year 2018, a slowdown net foreign FX position was USD 2 billion. was recorded in loans. During the last quarter, TL The ratio of total net FX position to legal loans reduced by TL 54 billion, while FX loans VKDUHKROGHUV¶HTXLW\ZDVSHUFHQW. increased by USD 1 billion. In the same period, TL deposits and FX deposits increased by TL 7 billion Market value of banks decreased. and USD 8 billion, respectively. As of the year-end 7KH PDUNHW YDOXH RI EDQNLQJ VHFWRU¶V the loan to deposit ratio decreased by 4 percentage VWRFNV WUDGHG RQ %RUVD øVWDQEXO points to 115 percent compared to the previous decreased from TL 56 billion to TL 44 quarter. Loan-to-deposit ratio decreased by 4 billion. The ratio of market value of percentage points to 115 percent. EDQNLQJ VHFWRU¶V VWRFNV WR WRWDO PDUNHW value was 29 percent. The ratio of market The ratio of loans to gross domestic product was 65 value to book value declined from 0.91 to percent. The share of TL loans in total loans was at 0.84. 63 percent level. 52 percent of loans were extended to large corporations, 26 percent to BRSA issued some regulations to limit the SMEs, and 22 percent to retail customers. temporary adverse effects of the fluctuations in the financial markets on the Non-performing loans ratio increased capital structure of the banking sector. The amount of non-performing loans was TL 97 Within this framework, banks were allowed billion. The ratio of non-performing loans to total to remove their loans classified as loans was 4 percent. This ratio was 5.5 percent in restructured loans LQWKH³stage 2 ³from the 2009, when the economy experienced a 5 percent scope of restructuring and to reclassify contraction in the economy due to the global crisis. WKHP LQ WKH ³stage 1´ DW WKH HQG RI D Over half of the non-performing loans have minimum three-month monitoring period, collaterals and collection rates remain at high providing that predetermined conditions levels. are satisfied. Furthermore, it was decided

that the valuation differences arising on The share of loans classified in the stage 1 in total the securities valuation due to speculative loans was 89 percent, while the share of loans fluctuations were not taken into classified in the stage 2 in total loans was 11 consideration in the VKDUHKROGHU¶V equity percent. The restructured loan figure was calculated for capital adequacy. BRSA approximately TL 107 billion, which was included in allowed banks to calculate their provisions the first and stage 2 of loans mentioned above. with the exchange rate as of June 30, 2018.

I-15 Asset Size of Financial Institutions in Turkey (December 2018, billion TL) Sector Amount Share in Total (%) Banks 3,867 83 Portfolio management companies 167 4 Insurance companies 171 4 Unemployment insurance fund 127 3 Pension investment funds 91 2 Real estate investment trusts 77 2 Financial leasing companies 69 1 Factoring companies 35 1 Finance companies 40 1 Intermediary institutions 25 1 Reassurance companies 5 0 Venture capital funds* 1 0 Securities investment trusts 0.5 0 Total 4,674 100 *'XHWRWKHDPHQGPHQWVLQWKH&RPPXQLTXqVWDUWLQJIURP31.12.2013, venture capital investment trusts are no more liable to issue portfolio tables and are not under obligation to issue a portfolio statement. Regulation and Supervision in Financial Sector in Turkey Regulation and Supervision Financial institutions/ transactions Authority Banks and other credit institutions Banks Financial leasing companies Banking Regulation and Supervision Factoring companies Authority Finance companies Asset management companies Capital market institutions Mutual (investment) funds Intermediary institutions Real estate investment trusts Capital Market Board Securities investment trusts Portfolio management companies Venture capital funds* Private pension funds Insurance companies Reassurance companies T.R. Ministry of Treasury and Finance Unemployment insurance fund Pension funds The Central Bank of The Republic of Payment systems Turkey Savings insurance system Saving and Deposits Insurance Fund Prevention of money laundering and financing of terrorism Financial Crimes Investigation Board Risk Center: As of March 2019, Risk Center had 180 members, comprised of 53 banks, 58 factoring companies, 23 financial leasing companies, 14 financing companies, 19 asset management companies, 9 insurance companies selling FUHGLW LQVXUDQFHV &UHGLW *XDUDQWHH )XQG 8QLRQ RI $JULFXOWXUDO &UHGLW &RRSHUDWLYHV %RUVD øVWDQEXO $ù øVWDQEXO6Wock Exchange) and -&5$YUDV\D'HUHFHOHQGLUPH+L]$ù

Customer, loan, loan insurance, check, protested promissory note and internal ratings information are collected from the Risk Center members, and customer, loan, loan insurance, check and protested promissory note

information are shared with the members.

As a part of the services offered by the Risk Center, in January ± December 2018 period, the members inquired:

million customers in the course of individual and retail loans and credit cards (KRS), and 40million customers in the course of commercial credits (KRM), and 66 million customers in the course of credit limit credit risks (KLKR), and risk reports containing brief information about real persons and legal entities, and 20 50 million customers in the course of checks.

I-16 Number of banks Number of banks operating in the banking sector Number of Banks 2017 2018 April 2019 was 53 as of April 2019. 34 of them were deposit Deposit banks 34 34 34 banks, and 13 were development and investment State-owned 3 3 3 Private 9 9 9 banks. Of the deposit banks, 3 were state-owned Foreign 20 21 21 banks, and 9 were private banks. The commercial SDIF 1 1 1 Develop. and invest. Banks 13 13 13 titles of the three banks were changed as QNB Participation banks 5 5 6 Finansbank $ù08)*%DQN7XUNH\$ù7XUNH\ Total 52 52 53 and the Development and Investment Bank of Source: BAT ,BRSA Turkey. The commercial enterprise constituted from

WKH VKDUHVRI $GDEDQN $ù ZDV VROG WR WKH 6',) CapitalCapital Structure Structure of of Banking Banking System System in in Turkey Turkey by tender. There were 6 participation banks in (Percent)(Percent) Turkey.2 According to the BRSA decision dated February 26, 2019, 7UNL\H(PODN.DWÕOÕP%DQNDVÕ $ù was granted an operating license. 54.8 52.2 52.2 51.3 51.8

Number of foreign banks where persons resident abroad hold 51 percent and more capital was 21. 22.6 24.2 24.6 25.1 25.3

Of the development and investment banks, 3 were 22.6 23.5 23.2 23.6 22.9 state-owned, 6 were private and 4 were foreign banks. 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Shares Offered to the Public Foreign Domestic Source: BAT The share of banks owned by foreign residents in Source: BAT total VKDUHKROGHUV¶ HTXLW\ was approximately 25 Number of Employees (Thousand) percent when stocks traded on Borsa Istanbul 2017 2018 Change excluded as of December 2018. Deposit banks 188 187 -2 State-owned 59 60 2 Employment Private 73 72 0 Foreign 56 55 -6 The number of employees didQ¶W significantly SDIF 0,2 0,2 0 Develop. and invest. banks 5 5 -6 change compared to the previous year and reached Participation banks 15 16 4 208 thousand people. Total 208 208 -1 Source: BAT 90 percent of bank personnel were employed by Population per Employee (People) deposit banks, 2 percent by development and investment banks. 400 29 percent of personnel of banking sector was employed by state-owned deposit banks, 35 380 percent by private banks, and 26 percent by foreign 360 banks. The ratio of female employees in the banking sector was 51 percent. Population per 340 bank employee was 389. 320 Number of branches 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Number of branches declined by 6 to 11,576. Source: BAT, TurkStat

Decline in number of branches resulted from Number of Branches* deposit banks. 2017 2018 Change Deposit banks 10,500 10,400 -100 Number of branches decreased by 50 in private State-owned 3,677 3,718 41 Private 4,013 3,963 -50 banks and, 91 in foreign banks while increased by Foreign 2,809 2,718 -91 41 in state-owned bank, 4 in development and SDIF 1 1 0 Develop. and invest. banks 50 54 4 investment banks and 90 in participation banks. Participation banks 1,032 1,122 90 Total 11,582 11,576 -6 * Including branches in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus and branches abroad. Source: BAT, BRSA

2 Detailed information may be retrieved from www.bddk.org.tr and www.tkbb.org.tr addresses about participation banks.

I-17 Concentration

As of December 2018, the sector share of the first Concentration in Banking Sector (Percentage) largest five banks in total assets was 56 percent. 2005 2017 2018 According to loan and deposit volume, the share of Largest five* the first largest five banks in total increased by 1 Assets 63 56 56 Deposits 66 60 61 percentage point, while their share in assets Loans 56 55 56 remained the same. Largest ten* Assets 85 85 86 Deposits 89 91 88 The share of the first ten banks in total assets Loans 80 84 86 * In terms of total assets. increased by 1 percentage point to 86 percent. Source: BAT While the share of the first ten banks in total deposits decreased by 3 percentage points to 88 The Number of Banks by Asset Size percent; their share in total loans increased by 2 (2018) percentage points. Billion USD 0-2 2-10 10-40 40-80 80-100 100+ Deposit 12 10 4 6 - 1 State - - - 2 - 1 The first five banks were composed of 2 state- Private 2 3 - 3 - - owned and 2 private banks and 1 foreign bank, and Foreign 10 7 4 1 - - Fund 1 - - - - - the first ten banks were composed of 3 state- Dev. Inv. 7 5 1 - - - owned, 3 private, 3 foreign banks and 1 Total 20 15 5 6 - 1 development and investment bank. Source: BAT

There were only one bank with an asset size of more than USD 100 billion, and 6 banks with an asset size of between USD 40 billion and USD 80 billion. However, there were 35 banks with an asset size below USD 10 billion. Total Assets (TL billion, as percentage of Gdp) Balance sheet size USD billion percent Total assets increased by 19 percent to TL 3.9 900 110 trillion. Total assets decreased by 15 percent to 850 USD 732 billion on dollar basis. Total assets 800 100 increased by 7 percent in fixed exchange rates. 750

700 90 The ratio of total assets to gdp was at 104 percent 650 level. 600 80 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Growth rate was 16 percent in deposit banks, 23 Assets Assets/gdp (right axis) percent in state-owned banks, 11 percent in private Source: BRSA banks and 15 percent in foreign banks.

The rate of growth in balance sheets of development and investment banks was 47 Market Shares of Groups (2018, Percentage) percent. Assets Loans Deposits Sector shares Deposit banks 88 87 93 State-owned 32 34 34 The share of assets of deposit banks in banking Private 33 31 35 Foreign 22 22 24 sector was 88 percent, while the shares of Dev. inv. 7 8 0 development and investment banks and Participation 5 5 7 Total 100 100 100 participation banks were 7 percent and 5 percent, Source: BRSA respectively.

The share of state-owned deposit banks was 32 percent, the share of private banks was 33 percent, and the share of foreign banks was 22 percent.

I-18 Off-balance sheet items Off-Balance Sheet Items (2018) TL USD Perc. Change Off-balance sheet items grew by 11 percent. Non- Billion Billion TL USD Off-balance sheet items 4,346 823 11 -21 cash loans and liabilities item increased by 19 Guaranties and warranties 781 148 19 -15 percent, and the commitments increased by 10 Commitments 3,565 675 10 -22 Derivatives 2,905 550 14 -18 percent. The ratio of total assets to non-cash loans Other commitments 660 125 -6 -33 was 89 percent. Derivative financial instruments are Source: BRSA intended for hedging purposes. The Share of TL Items in Balance Sheet Currency structure of balance sheets (Percentage)

TL assets and TL liabilities of banking sector 65 increased by 9 percent and 12 percent, respectively. On the other hand, TL equivalent of 60 foreign exchange assets rose by 34 percent and that of liabilities by 26 percent. 55

The share of TL assets in balance sheet decreased 50 by 5 percentage points to 56 percent, and while that of TL liabilities declined by 3 percentage points 45 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 to 50 percent. Assets Liabilities

The share of TL assets in total assets was 55 Source: BRSA percent in foreign banks, 62 percent in state-owned banks and 57 percent in private banks. Selected FX Balance Sheet Items (USD billion) Perc. 2017 2018 Similar differences existed in the distribution of the Change resources. As a matter of fact, the share of TL Liquid assets 104 90 -14 Banks 25 26 4 liabilities in total liabilities was 60 percent in state- Securities 32 28 -13 owned banks and 47 percent in private banks and Required reserves 60 30 -50 Loans 181 181 0 48 percent in foreign banks. Total Assets 334 320 -4 Deposits 201 188 -6 External debt stock of banks Central bank 15 16 7 Banks 117 97 -17 According to data published by the Ministry of Repos 14 8 -43 Treasury and Finance, external debt of banking Securities Issued 27 26 -4 Subordinated Debt 14 14 0 sector decreased by USD 19 billion to USD 164 Total Liabilities 405 365 -10 billion. On the other hand, the ratio of external Source: BRSA debts of banks to gdp decreased by 0.5 percentage FX Position (USD billion) points to 20.9 percent level. Perc. 2017 2018 Change FX items in balance sheets of banks amounted to Balance sheet USD 320 billion in assets and USD 365 billion in Assets 354 330 -7 Liabilities 402 364 -9 liabilities. Loans accounted for 57 percent of FX FX position -48 -34 - assets. On the side of liabilities, FX deposits which Off- balance sheet FX position 49 36 -27 FX position (net) 1 2 - were mainly held by residents accounted for 52 Source: BRSA percent. Currency risk

In balance sheet, foreign exchange position had a Financial Openness (2018) deficit of USD 34 billion, whereas foreign exchange 44 net general position had a surplus of more than USD 2 billion. The ratio of net general position to shareholders equity was at 3.8 percent level. 22 Financial openness

As of 2018, foreign assets and foreign liabilities of 10 the banking sector were USD 71 billion and USD 162 billion, respectively. The ratio of foreign assets to total assets was 10 percent, while the ratio of Foreign FX assets / Foreign FX liabilities / Foreign FX assets / Total assets Total liabilities Foreign FX liabilities foreign liabilities to total liabilities was 22 percent. Source: BRSA Foreign assets accounted for 44 percent of foreign liabilities.

I-19 Balance sheet structure

Banking sector loans and liquid assets represented 62 percent and 15 percent of assets, respectively. Selected Balance Sheet Items (2018)

The share of securities was 12 percent. The share Perc. Perc. TL USD of subsidiaries and fixed assets was 2 percent. Change Share Billion Billion TL 2017 2018 Liquid assets 571 108 17 15 15 Deposits and non-deposits funds accounted for 53 Securities 478 91 19 12 12 Loans 2,395 454 14 65 62 percent and 26 percent of liabilities, respectively. Total Assets 3,867 732 19 100 100 7KH VKDUHV RI VKDUHKROGHUV¶ HTXLW\ DQG RWKHU Deposits 2,034 385 0 62 53 liabilities were at 11 percent and 8 percent level, Non-deposits 1,009 191 0 31 26 6KDUHKROGHU¶VHTXLW\ 421 80 0 13 11 respectively. Total liabilities 3,867 732 19 100 100 Source: BRSA Loans Loan volume of banking sector increased by 14 percent in nominal terms, and by 2 percent in fixed Loans (As percentage of Gdp) exchange rates, amounting to TL 2,394 billion (USD 453 billion). 70

The ratio of loans to gdp realized as 65 percent. 66

The ratios of loans extended to large-scale 62 companies and projects, 60(¶VDQGFRQVXPHUV to gdp were 35 percent, 17 percent, and 15 percent, 58 respectively. While the ratios of corporate and SME loans to gdp remained the same, that of loans 54 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 extended to consumers to gdp decreased by 3 percentage points compared to same period of the Source: BRSA, TurkStat previous year.

TL loans amounted to 60 percent of loans and 40 percent were foreign exchange loans. Loans by Sectors (TL billion) Perc. Perc. As of 2018 Distribution of loans Change Share gdp Corporate 1,933 19 78 52 SME 612 19 25 17 53 percent of total loans extended to large scale Retail 557 5 22 15 companies and project financing, 25 percent to Credit cards 144 16 6 4 Consumer and housing 413 1 17 11 SMEs, and 22 percent to consumers. Housing 190 -2 8 5 Automobile 7 0 0 0 Consumer 216 3 9 6 The distribution of corporate loans among Total 2,490 15 100 67 manufacturing industry, commercial sector, Source: BRSA construction industry and energy sector, and real estate brokerage was 19 percent, 14 percent, 9 percent and 7 percent, 6 percent, respectively.

Total amount of commitments in loans for project financing increased by 24 percent to TL 538 billion Project Financing (USD billion) Perc.

(USD 102 billion). Energy sector took the highest 2017 2018 Change share with 44 percent in these loans. Risk Balance 334 430 29 Cash 297 386 30 Non-cash 37 45 22 Of the project loans, 11 percent extended for real Total commitments 435 538 24 estates, and 27 percent for infrastructure projects. Source: BAT Project financing loans for infrastructure projects rose by 48 percent compared to December 2017.

Cash and non-cash loans to SMEs increased by 19 percent and 30 percent, respectively. The number

I-20 of SMEs borrowed extended loans were 3.1 million. 28 percent of SME loans were extended to micro- enterprises, 32 percent to small size companies, and 40 percent to medium-sized companies. An Non-Bank Financial Institution Loans (2018) average of SME loans amount was TL 196 Cash Loans* As of gdp (TL Billion) (perc.) thousand. Leasing 57 1.5

Financing Company 33 0.9 The share of housing loans in retail loans was 34 Factoring 22 0.6 percent, the share of consumer loans 39 percent, Total 112 3.0 * Loans extended to real and legal persons abroad by domestic banks credit cards 26 percent, and that of automobile were included. loans 1 percent. Source: BAT Risk Center Report

As of September 2018, the average housing loan of TL 81 thousand was extended to a total of 2.3 million people. The number of consumer loan Non-Performing Loans* to Total Loans borrowers was 17.6 million, and average loan (Percentage) amount was TL 11.2 thousand. 4 Loans extended by non-bank financial institutions 3

According to Bank Association of Turkey (BAT) 2 Risk Center Report, cash loans extended directly by non-bank loan institutions in Turkey amounted to 1 TL 112 billion as of December 2018. The amounts of the cash loans extended by leasing companies, 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 financing companies and factoring companies were Source: BRSA TL 57 billion TL, 33 billion and TL 22 billion, * Before provision respectively.

Non-performing loans reached TL 8.9 billion as of the end of 2018. Thus, the ratio of non-performing Non-Performing Loans* to Total Loans (Percentage) loans to total cash loans was at 7.9 percent level. Non-bank loan institutions loans to gdp was 3 2016 2017 2018 Corporate 2.9 2.8 3.8 percent. SME 5.2 4.9 7.2

Retail 4.3 3.5 4.0 Loan risk Credit cards 7.3 6.0 5.3 Consumer and 3.4 2.7 2.8 Non-performing loans increased by 51 percent to housing Housing 0.5 0.4 0.5 TL 97 billion.. The ratio of non-performing loans Automobile 3.2 2.8 3.1 before special provisions to total loans was at 3.9 Consumer 6.0 4.8 4.9 Total 3.2 2.9 3.9 percent. * Before provision.

Source: BRSA This ratio was 3.8 percent in corporate loans, and 4 percent in consumer loans. The ratio of non- performing loans in credit cards was 5.3 percent, while that of in SME loans was 7.2 percent.

By sectors, the ratio of non-performing loans in total loans was 5.4 percent in trade sector, 5.5 percent in construction sector, 3.4 percent in energy sector, 4 percent in manufacturing sector, 3.7 percent in agriculture and animal husbandry sector and 4.7 percent in tourism sector.

As of September 2018, the ratio of write-off loans to total loans was 1.6 percent, the ratio of restructured loans to total loans was 4.2 percent.

The amount of restructured loans increased by 38 percent to TL 108 billion. 32 percent of restructured loans were classified in the stage 1.

I-21 Deposits Deposits (As percentage of Gdp)

Total deposits grew by 19 percent in nominal terms 57 and 6 percent in fixed exchange rates to TL 2,036 billon (USD 386 billion). The ratio of deposits to gdp 55 was 55 percent. A 53 percent of assets were 53 financed by deposits. 51

The share of TL deposits in total deposits 49 decreased by 5 percentage points to 51 percent. 47 The share of TL deposits in total deposits was 58 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 percent in state-owned banks, 47 percent in private Source: BRSA, TurkStat banks and 50 percent in foreign banks. The ratio of deposits held by natural persons in total deposits and total assets realized as 62 and 32 percent, respectively. The ratio of deposits held Loan to Deposits Ratio (Percentage) by natural persons to gdp was 34 percent. Precious metal deposits with TL 41 billion, 124 accounted for 2 percent of total deposits. 120 Average maturity of total deposits was 3.1 months. Average maturity was 2.7 months for TL deposits, and 3.6 months for foreign exchange deposits. 116

Loan-to-deposit ratio decreased by 5 percentage 112 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 points to 118 percent compared to the previous year. This rate was 138 percent in TL loans and Source: BRSA deposits, and 96 percent in FX loans and deposits.

Non-deposit funds Non-deposit funds increased by 12 percent in nominal terms and decreased by 5 percent in fixed Deposits and Non-Deposit Funds exchange rates to TL 1,009 billion (USD 191 (TL billion) 2017 2018 billion). TL FX TL FX Deposits 955 706 1.042 994 Non-Deposit funds 243 660 239 769 Loans borrowed from foreign banks accounted for Central Bank 1 55 2 82 56 percent of non-deposit funds. The share of FX Money market 103 9 74 0 Banks 34 441 53 510 funds in non-deposit funds was at 76 percent level Repos 46 53 55 41 Securities Issued 43 102 39 135 Source: BRSA Borrowing from money markets decreased by 35 percent to TL 74 billion constituting 7 percent of total non-deposit funds. On the other hand, bills and bonds issued by banks reached TL 174 billion, representing 5 percent of balance sheet.

The amount of syndication loans was at USD 19.1 billion level.

I-22 6KDUHKROGHUV¶HTXLW\ 6KDUHKROGHU¶V(TXLW\ 86'ELOOLRQ

6KDUHKROGHUV¶HTXLW\JUHZE\17 percent to TL 421 100 billion (USD 80 billion). 80

60 6KDUHKROGHUV¶HTXLW\FRQVLVWHGRISDLGFDSLWDORI7/ 96 billion and reserves of TL 253 billion. 40 20 )UHH VKDUHKROGHUV¶ HTXLW\ VKDUHKROGHUV¶ HTXLW\± 0 fixed assets- non-performing loans after provisions) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 increased from TL 220 billion to TL 321 billion, and Source: BRSA decreased from USD 69 billion to USD 61 billion on dollar basis.

6KDUHKROGHUV¶ HTXLW\ ILQDQFHG SHUFHQW RI WRWDO

DVVHWV 7KH UDWLR RI IUHH VKDUHKROGHUV¶ HTXLW\ WR total assets was at 8.3 percent level. Capital Adequacy Ratio (Percentage) Capital adequacy Capital adequacy ratio was at 17.3 percent level. 18 Core capital stood at 13.8 percent. 17

Capital adequacy ratio was 16.8 percent in deposit 16 banks and 24 percent in development and 15 investment banks. This ratio was 15.8 percent in participation banks. 14 13 The ratio of risk-weighted assets to balance sheet 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 was at 77 percent level. The share of assets with a Source: BRSA risk-weight of 100 percent and more in the total assets increased by 3 percentage points to 62 percent compared to the previous year. Income-Expenses (Billion TL) Perc. 2017 2018 Change Risk weighted asseWVDQGUHJXODWRU\VKDUHKROGHUV¶ Interest income 247 368 49 equity increased by 18 percent and 23 percent, Interest expenses 134 222 66 Net interest income 113 146 29 respectively. The shareholders' equity leverage Non-interest income 38 54 42 ratio of the assets was realized as 7.5 times. Non- interest expenses 70 99 41 Source: BRSA

Income-expenditure Cost / Income (Percent)

65 Interest income and interest expenditures increased by 49 percent and 66 percent, 62 respectively, in 2018. Thus net interest income 59 increased by 29 percent to TL 146 billion. Due to rapid increase in provisions, the negative primary 56 non-interest income-expenditure balance increased 53 by 40 percent and realized as TL -45 billion. 50 The ratio of total expenditure to total income 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: BRSA continued to decline and realized as 52 percent. Parallel to the decline in fee and commission income, the share of such incomes in total also continued to decline. In 2018, 22 percent of total revenues consisted of fees and commissions.

I-23 Profit and profitability Net Profits (USD billion)

Net profit increased by 9 percent in TL terms and 14 decreased by 22 percent on dollar basis and amounted to TL 53 billion (USD 10 billion). 12

Average return on equity decreased by 100 base 10 points to 13.6 percent. This ratio was 13.3 percent in private banks, 13.9 percent in state-owned 8 banks, 14.8 percent in foreign banks, and 11.9 6 percent in development and investment banks. 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Source: BRSA Average return on equity was below 4.5 of the return on government securities (benchmark bond, Return on Average Equity and Return on daily average of 18.1 percent). G-Securities* (Percentage)

20 As of December 2018, average return on assets decreased by 10 basis points to 1.5 percent level 16 compared to the previous year. 12

8 Card transactions volume 4 According to data of Interbank Card Center (BKM), 0 debit card and credit card transaction volume was 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Return on Equity (average) Return on Government Bonds TL 1.654 billion (USD 313 billion), and its ratio to *By the end of year. gdp was 45 percent. The rate of increase in only Source: BAT credit card transactions volume was 6 percent. The number of credit cards exceeded 66 million, and Selected Indicators Perc. number of debit cards exceeded 146 million. 2017 2018 Change Numbers of POS devices and ATMs realized as 1.6 Total credit card (thousand) 62,454 66,305 6 million and 52 thousand, respectively. Total debit card (thousand) 131,593 146,375 11 POS (thousand) 1,657 1,587 -4 ATM 49,847 51,941 4 Digital banking Credit card trans./gdp 23 22 - Debit card trans. vol. /gdp 23 23 - * Used in Turkey. Source: Interbank Card Center. As of December 2018, the number of active customers using digital banking transactions reached 44 million. 96 percent of the customers Selected Indicators for Digital Banking were individual, and 4 percent were corporate. In Perc. 2017 2018 2018, the volume of internet banking transactions Change Number of active customers increased by 20 percent to TL 5.6 trillion, while 34,990 44,182 26 (thousand) mobile banking volume increased by 67 percent to Volume of transactions (TL Billion) TL 3.5 trillion. øQWHUQHW%DQNLQJ 4,630 5,570 20 Mobil Banking 2,126 3,543 67 Source: BAT

I-24 International comparison

The Turkish banking sector with its EUR 721 billion Selected Banking Indicators in EU and Turkey worth of assets, ranked 13th among the member (2017) states of the European Union. Unit EU Turkey Asset billion EUR 1,532 721 The EU average is EUR 1.532 billion and the EU Asset/gdp percentage 279 105 developing countries average is EUR 119 billion. Loan billion EUR 875 465 Loan/gdp percentage 160 68

The ratio of assets of the banking sector to gdp with Deposit billion EUR 817 379 105 percent was below the EU average. Deposit/gdp percentage 149 55

Equities billion EUR 128 80 The ratio of loans to assets was 64 percent in Equities/asset percentage 8 11 Turkish banking sector, whereas the EU average is Population/employee people 189 253 66 percent. Population/branch people 2,950 6,890 Source: ECB, BRSA

With 11 per cent VKDUHKROGHUV¶ equity to assets ratio, the banking sector in Turkey is above the EU average of 8 percent. Banking Sector Assets (As percentage of Gdp, 2017) In Turkish banking sector, the number of persons served per branch were 6,890, while 253 persons 400 319 were served by a bank employee, the same figures in EU were 2,950 and 189 on average, 300 respectively. 200 The ratio of banking sector size in Turkey to gdp is 106 105 below the developed countries average and above 100 the developing countries average. 0 Developed Countries Developing Contries Turkey The size of the capital markets is still at a low level Source: SNL, IMF and shows growth potential in this area.

Capital Market (As percentage of Gdp, 2017)

300 276

200

111 100 59

0 Developed Countries Developing Contries Turkey

Source SNL, BIS, IMF

I-25 Framework Agreement on Financial Restructuring

In order to improve payment capabilities of the customers willing to pay their debts, but who fail to fulfill their performance on time due to different reasons, banks and other financial institutions, individually or collectively, keep the credit channels open in line with the individual financial evaluation of each customer taking into account the solvency, long-term borrower-creditor relationship and thus provide flexibility in terms of maturity, payment and guarantee conditions.

With this approach, the Banks Association of Turkey prepared a protocol setting down the principles required to be followed in the financial restructuring agreements to be entered into by banks and other financial institutions with their debtors by taking into consideration the recent events in national economy and also the developments in international markets.

Since the income-expense balance had a temporary disruption, for helping the companies to fulfill their obligations towards repaying their debts as a result of restructuring or as part of a new redemption plan, economic activities to regulate the cash flows and towards fulfillment of their obligations are supported. In order to achieve this, it is aimed to ensure that not only the relevant debtor, but also other institutions affiliated to these debtors, if any, and its controlling shareholders demonstrate their good faith and self- sacrifice and thus, a platform of consensus and a positive synergy among the sectors are established.

The purpose of this Agreement is to enable the commercial loan debtors which have already faced or are likely to face temporary difficulties in their debt repayments to the Creditor Institutions to fulfill their debt repayment obligations, through measures such as:

(a) extension of the maturities of their loan debts, (b) renewal of the existing facilities of these debtors, (c) extension of new additional facilities to such debtors, (d) reduction of the amount of, or waiver from, principal, interest, default interest, dividend, and all kinds of other receivables arising from the loan relationship; and e) conversion of principal, interest or dividend receivables partially or completely into ownership interests, or transfer or assignment of these receivables against a consideration in kind, in cash or subject to the condition of collection, or settlement, sale or otherwise removal of these receivables from the balance sheet partially or completely, in consideration of the values in kind, belonging to the debtor or third parties; and f) acting together with, and entering into protocols with, other Creditor Institutions and creditors. . Framework agreement covers the debtors whose total principal debts (cash+non-cash) owed to the Creditor Institutions is above TL 100 million as of the date of application

The Framework Agreement arranged in details the principles regarding restructuring of debtor, decision quorums related to extension of new additional facilities, reduction of the amount of, or waiver from, principal receivables or participation or non-cash collection, claims against the debtor within the framework of the general principles, and principles to be applied in the implementation process and principles to be applied in the standstill process.

I-26 The Banks Association of Turkey and Banks Operating in Turkey

II-1

The Banks Association of Turkey

General Information (*)

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II-239 II-240 Appendix

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