2 November 2018 Retailing / Hardlines ULTA Beauty Provided for the exclusive use of Research Research at Provisional Access on 2018-11-02T05:57+00:00. DO NOT REDISTRIBUTE Deutsche Bank Research

Rating Company Date Hold ULTA Beauty 2 November 2018 Company Update North America United States Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker Price at 1 Nov 2018 (USD) 272.95 Consumer ULTA.OQ ULTA US NMS ULTA Price target 263.00 Retailing / Hardlines 52-week range 287.16 - 194.00 dbDIG Kylie Cosmetics Survey, and Other ULTA Takes Valuation & Risks Mike Baker, CFA In front of ULTA’s analyst day, we conducted a proprietary dbDIG survey of nearly Research Analyst 1,300 cosmetics consumers to gauge the impact that the Kylie Cosmetics launch +1-617-217-6253 can have on ULTA’s long term results and perception. We also asked respondents about in store versus online preferences and ULTA’s brand perception in general. John Quinn Along with this work, we outline our expectations for ULTA’s analyst day, including Research Associate our view that the company will likely preannounce 3Q18 results. We are slightly +1-617-310-8047 above consensus on the quarter, but don’t see much upside to our estimate. Longer term, our earnings algorithm points to high teens EPS growth. Harrison Vivas Research Associate Three takes from our dbDIG cosmetics survey, with mixed implications for ULTA +1-904-645-4095 We asked 1,300 cosmetics consumers about their view of Kylie Cosmetics as well as several other industry related questions. We have three main takeaways, which Key changes we think are mixed for ULTA: TP 244.00 to ↑ 7.8% 263.00 Source: Deutsche Bank 1. Kylie Cosmetics is a small brand, but growing in popularity: That will help ULTA to attract a new customer. Thus, we would characterize the pending launch as a modest positive for ULTA.

2. Channel preferences, while still skewing towards in store, are increasingly Our $263 PT is based on a 20x P/E multiple against our 2019E EPS. We see moving online: While ULTA’s online business has been very successful, the biggest downside risk being increased we do believe they differentiate less in this channel versus in store. Thus, online competition as well as slowing square we view this negatively for ULTA. footage growth. To the upside, we see risks from increased penetration of newer 3. ULTA ranks high in consumer favorability: U LTA was the third most products, which could lead to higher than popular shopping destination behind only WMT and just behind Sephora. excepted market share gains. ULTA scores well on shopping experience, quality and their loyalty program.

3Q preannouncement expectations – slightly ahead on comps, but not much upside We believe ULTA will likely update their 3Q18 performance in front of their analyst day. Our channel checks, including vendor read throughs, suggest that ULTA has had a solid quarter and we are slightly ahead of consensus on our 3Q comp estimate. That said, we do not see much upside to our 8.0% estimate, which compares to Factset consensus of 7.5%, guidance of 7%-8% and last quarter's comp of 6.5%. Our model assumes 80 bps of gross margin gain, or up 20 excluding accounting changes due in part to easy hurricane related comparisons. We think this may have enabled some promotional activity in this year's quarter to drive sales while still showing better margins. For the 4th quarter, our estimate

Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Distributed on: 02/11/2018 05:33:08 GMT Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 091/04/2018. 7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa Provided for the exclusive use of Research Research at Provisional Access on 2018-11-02T05:57+00:00. DO NOT REDISTRIBUTE 2 November 2018 Retailing / Hardlines ULTA Beauty

is 8.5%, which is in line with consensus and puts us at 8.2% for the year. This compares to ULTA’s current guidance of 6%-8%, which could be tweaked up slightly in a preannouncement.

Analyst day expectations – including our long term earnings algorithm estimate in the high teens ULTA will likely discuss overall market trends, product newness, merchandising (including Kylie), marketing plans, its cost cutting program and a store growth outlook. But the key stock moving presentation will be the long term earnings outlook in our view. We are expecting a 3 year financial outlook, with our algorithm showing average annual comps of 6%, with 8% square footage growth and some margin benefit from cost cutting driving just under 14% EBIT growth annually. Layering in some buybacks, we model a long term EPS CAGR of 17.5% EPS growth.

Maintain our Hold outlook on valuation, strong but slowing growth and potential channel shifts ULTA’s stock has been a strong performer YTD and is thus now once again trading at a premium valuation of 21.3x consensus 2019 estimates. This compares to a retail average of 15.6x with only a handful more expensive. We are increasing our price target to $263 from $244, which is now based on 20x our 2019 EPS estimate versus our prior target P/E multiple of 19x. We think this is warranted based on our long-term outlook, but maintain a Hold as we look for above average but slowing growth and see increased online competition. We see the biggest downside risk being increased online competition as well as slowing square footage growth. To the upside, we see risks from increased penetration of newer products, which could lead to higher than excepted market share gains.

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dbDIG Survey Results – some positives and some concerns for ULTA

In conjunction with dbDIG, we conducted a national online survey in late October of 1,263 women in the U.S. age 14+ who purchased cosmetics in the past 12 months. We focused the survey around questions regarding the pending Kylie Cosmetics launch at ULTA, but also asked a series of questions on channel and retailer preferences among other topics. We note that results are nationally reprehensive on age, region, income and race/ethnicity. The margin of error for the total survey sample is +/- 2.8%

We have three key takes from our survey work, which we believe are mixed for ULTA. These include: 1. Kylie Cosmetics is a small brand, but is growing in popularity: That will help ULTA to attract a new customer. Thus, we would characterize the pending launch as a modest positive for ULTA.

2. Channel preferences, while still skewing towards in store, are increasingly moving online: While ULTA’s online business has been very successful, we do believe they differentiate less in this channel versus in store. Thus, we view this negatively for ULTA.

3. ULTA ranks high in consumer favorability: ULTA was the third most popular shopping destination behind only WMT and just behind Sephora. U LTA scores well on shopping experience, quality and their loyalty program.

Below we explore these in more detail Kylie Cosmetics is a small brand, but is growing in popularity which we view as a modest positive for Ulta: Based on a recent Forbes article estimating that Kylie Cosmetics generated $330mm in 2017 revenue and over $630mm in its two year existence, we reasonably assume that current revenue is in the $350mm range. If we assume that Ulta gets half of the product line and 25%-50% of that share, it would imply just under a 1% benefit to comps. While this is certainly incremental, we view the overall impact as more modest than what the high level of investor focus may suggest. Below are a few relevant stats from our survey:

■ (-) K ylie Cosmetics has low favorability scores…: 71% of survey respondents were familiar with Kylie Cosmetics. Of those familiar, only 39% were favorable toward the brand. This ranked 11th out of 12 brands that we surveyed. Additionally, of the 10 celebrity endorsers of cosmetics that we asked about, Kylie Jenner was 9th on the list with 36% favorability, above only her sister Kim Kardashian.

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Figure 1: Favorability scores of 10 celebrity endorsers of cosmetics

60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

Overall Unfavorable Overall Favorable

*Respondents unfamiliar with a celebrity were filtered out

Source: dbDIG Survey, DB Research

■ (+)…But, still appears to be growing: Only 11% of cosmetics buyers in our survey purchased Kylie Cosmetics in the last year which was 9th out of the 12 brands that we asked about. That said, 20% of respondents, when asked, said that they were either “extremely likely” or “very likely” to purchase Kylie Cosmetics in the next 12 months. Of the brands included in our survey, e.l.f. was the number one brand purchased over the last year (38%) and also the most preferred at 15%.

Figure 2: More consumers purchased e.l.f. last year… Figure 3: … of those who purchased more than one brand, e.l.f. was preferred

45% Brands Purchased in the LTM 16% Favorite Makeup Brand 40% 14% 35% 12% 30% 10% 25% 8% 20% 6% 15% 10% 4% 5% 2% 0% 0%

Source: dbDIG Survey, DB Research Source: dbDIG Survey, DB Research

■ (+) Kylie should help ULTA reach a new customer: While 51% of Kylie customers already shop Ulta, we do believe that the new partnership could help increase penetration with a new customer. Our survey shows that fans of Kylie Cosmetics skew younger and more ethnically diverse than the average Ulta customer and we think that this is an opportunity for Ulta to gain share within this segment. It is also noteworthy that the 20% of survey respondents with high intent to purchase Kylie cosmetics next year increased to 27% when they learned that the product will be

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available at Ulta. And, of the 27% that intend to purchase next year, 57% said that they are most likely to buy from Ulta.

Channel preferences, while still skewing towards in store, are increasingly moving online which we view as a negative for Ulta: Cosmetics shopping is moving online where we think ULTA can compete with their strong loyalty program, but in general it is harder for them to differentiate as the fight moves online versus in store. One of Ulta’s key strategies of being the only place to get mass and premium prestige product under one roof becomes less of a point of differentiation as more of the business moves online.

■ 57% of those that bought cosmetics in the past 12 months have a greater preference to buy in store versus online, meaning 43% have equal or greater preference to buy online, which is actually pretty high versus other verticals. Moreover, 74% of respondents have bought something online in the past 12 months, suggesting that even those that prefer in store are still buying online.

■ Looking ahead, there were 26% of respondents who identified themselves as currently being “in store only shoppers”. But, that drops to 18% when asked about their shopping plans in the next 12 months. Additionally, 20% of shoppers plan to increase their amount of cosmetic purchases online compared to 12% that expect to buy less. 50% expect to buy about the same. So online is getting more popular. While in-store service is one of the key reasons for shopping brick and mortar, a key finding in the survey was that once a customer finds a product they like, they are more indifferent about purchasing on-line versus in-store as it becomes more about convenience and price.

Ulta ranks high in consumer favorability, a positive for ULTA: Ulta remains quite favorable with cosmetics shoppers, particularly with high frequency “beauty- enthusiasts”. While we do note increased competition particularly online, we think Ulta’s perception of a high quality offering combined with one of the strongest loyalty programs in retail helps to insulate the company.

■ The top three preferred destinations to purchase cosmetics were Walmart at 21% followed by Sephora at 19% and Ulta at 17%. No other destination or channel garnered more than 8% of the vote with Amazon coming in at 6%. But, with consumers telling us that they are more comfortable purchasing cosmetics online, this could grow.

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Figure 4: More consumers purchased cosmetics at Figure 5: … of consumers who bought cosmetics from WMT last year... more than one retailer, WMT, Sephora and ULTA were favored

60% Where consumers purchased in LTM 25% Preferred Destinations 50% 20% 40% 15% 30% 10% 20% 10% 5% 0% 0%

Source: dbDIG Survey, DB Research Source: dbDIG Survey, DB Research

■ Sephora and Ulta were the top 2 destinations for high frequency cosmetics shoppers, as defined as those purchasing more than 10 times in the last year and comprising 15% of the market, with 26% preferring Sephora and 22% preferring Ulta.

■ Quality and cost were cited as the two biggest factors when purchasing cosmetics. 73% of Ulta shoppers rated the offering “high quality”, as defined by a score of 8 or higher on a scale of 0-10. Additionally, 59% described Ulta as good value for the money. Conversely, 55% of Amazon shoppers rated the offering “high quality” with a similar 60% citing good value for the money. Ulta even scored higher than Amazon based on ease of shopping experience.

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Figure 6: Percentage of consumers that gave retailers a score of 8 or better on certain attributes

Easy shopping experience High quality Staff is knowledgeable H I Trendy Good value for the money

ULTA Sephora Amazon WMT TGT Department Stores Pharmacy/Drugstore

*Numbers reflect the percentage of respondents that have shopped a given retailer and gave it a score of 8-10 for a given attribute

Attribute: ULTA Sephora Amazon WMT TGT Department Stores Pharmacy/Drugstore Easy shopping experience 75% 72% 70% 63% 63% 57% 62% High quality 73% 76% 55% 40% 45% 66% 44% Staff is knowledgeable 66% 71% N/A 29% 33% 60% 29% H I 65% 70% 64% 51% 52% 57% 44% Trendy 62% 74% 48% 39% 47% 55% 28% Good value for the money 59% 57% 60% 70% 60% 48% 52%

Source: dbDIG Survey, DB Research

■ 78% of loyalty members rate Ulta’s reward program as highly favorable. Additionally, 59% of loyalty program members described the program as either “extremely important” or “very important” in their decision to shop at Ulta. Only 9% said it was not much of a factor. We believe that this is Ulta’s biggest competitive advantage as the business continues to move online.

Analyst Day Expectations – a quarterly update, a long term outlook and everything in between

We expect a preannouncement, without much upside With ULTA’s 3Q ending on November 3rd, we believe ULTA will likely update their quarterly performance in front of the November 8th analyst day. Our channel checks suggest that ULTA has had a solid quarter and we are slightly ahead of consensus on our 3Q comp estimate. That said, we do not see much upside to our 8.0% estimate, which compares to Factset consensus of 7.5%, guidance of 7%-8% and last quarters comp of 6.5%. On a two year basis, our estimate equates to 18.3% compared to 18.2% last quarter. Our relatively stable comp outlook is consistent with vendor checks, including Estee Lauder, which reported

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approximately flat trends in their Americas business excluding accounting, Bon- Ton closures and currency. This compared to 2% last quarter. But, North America was up slightly and probably a bit better than the up slightly increase (for U.S. specifically) in 2Q18, but likely due to smaller department store declines. L’Oreal’s North American business was up 2.7% versus 3.5% last quarter. Other checks also suggest solid but stable trends.

On the EPS line, our estimate is $2.16, compared to Factset consensus of $2.17 and guidance of $2.11-$2.16. Our model assumes 80 bps of gross margin gain, or up 20 excluding the benefits of ASU 2014-09 due to easy comparisons as ULTA was very promotional in 3Q17, needing to recoup some sales after last year’s hurricanes. We think this may have enabled some promotional activity this year to drive sales while still showing better margins. But this will be offset by 200 bps of cost increases due to investments in technology, boutique rollout and other costs. Thus, we are modeling operating margins for the quarter at 11.1% versus consensus of 11.0% and down 100 bps y/y. We believe the implied 3Q18 margin outlook is closer to 10.8%-10.9% or down 125 bps.

For the 4th quarter, our estimate is 8.5%, which is in line with consensus and puts us at 7.8% for the year. This compares to ULTA’s current guidance of 6%-8%, which could be tweaked up slightly in a preannouncement. Our 4Q18 EPS forecast is $3.71 compared to consensus of $3.61 and what we estimate is implied guidance of $3.49-$3.71. Our operating margin estimate is flat, which is better than consensus of down 40 bps. For the year, our EPS estimate is $11.01 compared to consensus of $10.92. We believe ULTA’s guidance of GAAP EPS up in the low 20% range translates to $10.75 to $11.02 compared to GAAP EPS of $8.96 last year.

Figure 7: ULTA Estimates - DB vs Consensus and Guidance

Consensus Guidance Comps 3Q18 8.0% 7.5% 7%-8% 4Q18 8.5% 8.3% 7%-8% 1 2018 7.8% 7.7% 6%-8%

Operating margin 3Q18 11.06% 10.96% 10.8%-10.9% 2 4Q18 13.81% 13.38% 13.4%-13.8% 2 2018 12.95% 12.79% 12.6%-12.8% 2

Operating margin y/y change (in bps) 3Q18 (106) (116) down 120 to down 130 3 4Q18 5 (38) flat to down 40 3 2018 (60) (76) down 75 to down 95 3

3Q18 $2.16 $2.17 $2.11-$2.16 4Q18 $3.71 $3.61 $3.49-$3.71 4 2018 $11.01 $10.92 $10.75-$11.02 5

1ULTA has not given 4Q18 comp guidance but we believe their view is that 4Q should be similar to 3Q

2Implied based on guided and implied sales and EPS guidance and DB interest, tax and share count estimates

3Based on implied guidance versus non GAAP margin results from last year

4Implied based on 3Q guidance and full year implied EPS guidance

5Implied based on low 20% growth versus 2017's GAAP EPS of $8.96

Source: DB Estimates, Factset Consensus, Company Info

Presentations and Q&A likely to touch on all facets of the business

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Update on trends in the market: Topics will likely include trends in prestige versus mass, trends by product category with a focus on makeup versus skincare and an update on overall growth and size of ULTA’s total addressable market. This should include a breakdown of market share by channel.

Marketing strategy update: ULTA will likely update their robust customer segmentation data to highlight the opportunity to take more share of wallet among beauty enthusiasts. Within this decision, we expect an update on ULTA’s marketing strategy, including print, couponing, broadcast media and digital / social media. We also expect an update on ULTA’s loyalty and private label credit card programs including the impact of the introduction of additional loyalty tiers. One concern is that loyalty growth has been moderating, which we think is related to the strong, but moderating comps.

Figure 8: ULTA comp versus loyalty member growth

18.0% Comp Loyalty Growth Y/Y 30%

16.0% 27% Correlation is 89%

14.0% % h

24% t

w

p

o r

m 12.0%

o

G

y

C t

21% al y

10.0% o L 18% 8.0%

6.0% 15%

2Q18

1Q18

4Q17

3Q17

2Q17

1Q17

4Q16

3Q16

2Q16

1Q16

4Q15

3Q15

2Q15

1Q15

4Q14

3Q14

2Q14 1Q14

Source: DB Research, Company Info

Store growth outlook not likely to increase, at least not domestically: We expect ULTA to reiterate their store growth plan of 1,400 to 1,700 domestic stores. On our model, ULTA will end this year with 1,171. This is 69%-84% of the estimated long term total, or 76% at the midpoint, which in baseball terms translates to the bottom of the 7th inning.

Assuming 100 openings a year, that implies that ULTA will get to the midpoint of the saturation point in four years. This would translate into an average store growth CAGR of 7.6%. ULTA may also update their new store economic model. But, at least based on the previous model, the slowdown in square footage growth will likely lead to slowing comps due to the impact to ULTA’s store maturity curve (the “waterfall”) – see Figure 9. We also believe that store growth helps drive loyalty member growth as well as ecommerce growth, which therefore could also slow with lower new store growth.

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Figure 9: ULTA store maturity comp waterfall

Comp Year 1 2 3 4 Maturity Contribution Total Comp by store year new stores Comp Est Ending stores 99 125 101 60 43 35 % of total stores 16.1% 13.0% 7.8% 5.6% 4.5% comp contribution 2.6% 1.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 5.0% 9.9%

100 99 125 101 60 43 % of total stores 11.3% 14.3% 11.6% 6.9% 4.9% comp contribution 1.8% 1.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 4.7% 11.8%

100 100 99 125 101 60 % of total stores 10.3% 10.2% 12.8% 10.4% 6.2% comp contribution 1.7% 1.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 4.4% 15.8%

1,074 100 100 100 99 125 101 % of total stores 9.3% 9.3% 9.2% 11.6% 9.4% comp contribution 1.5% 1.0% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 4.1% 11.0%

1,171 97 100 100 100 99 125 % of total stores 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 10.7% comp contribution 1.4% 0.9% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 3.7% 7.8%

1,271 100 97 100 100 100 99 % of total stores 7.6% 7.9% 7.9% 7.9% 7.8% comp contribution 1.2% 0.9% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 3.3% 6.8%

1,371 100 100 97 100 100 100 % of total stores 7.3% 7.1% 7.3% 7.3% 7.3% comp contribution 1.2% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 3.1% 6.0%

1,471 100 100 100 97 100 100 % of total stores 6.8% 6.8% 6.6% 6.8% 6.8% comp contribution 1.1% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 2.9% 5.5%

1,571 100 100 100 100 97 100 % of total stores 6.4% 6.4% 6.4% 6.2% 6.4% comp contribution 1.0% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 2.7% 5.0%

CAGR 2018E-2022E 7.6% Average 3.0% 5.8%

Source: DB Estimates, Company Info

Beyond the 1,400-1,700, we believe ULTA would need to contemplate international stores to maintain its growth rate as smaller or urban concepts domestically have yet to prove themselves as providing enough benefit to act as a second leg of growth.

Ecommerce still increasing in penetration, both at ULTA and industry wide: At their last analyst day, ULTA guided ecommerce to hit 10% of sales by 2019. They hit that level almost two years early and will likely set a new target. On our model, we forecast ecommerce growing to 14% by 2021, growing 15%-25% annually. This would be a moderation from the 40% plan for 2018, which makes sense as ecommerce increases in penetration. Ecommerce will remain a key comp contributor but that impact will moderate as growth naturally slows.

We expect ULTA to provide an update on data regarding single channel versus omnichannel shoppers’ spending habits. As ULTA’s own success online shows, consumers will buy cosmetics online. Thus, we expect some discussion on how ULTA differentiates their ecommerce offering from other ecommerce channels like Amazon.

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Figure 10: ULTA impact of store waterfall and ecommerce on comps Store maturity benefit Total comp Mature store comp Ecommerce contribution Mature brick and mortar comp

2014 5.0% 9.9% 4.9% 1.8% 3.1% 2015 4.7% 11.8% 7.0% 1.8% 5.2% 2016 4.4% 15.8% 11.4% 3.2% 8.2% 2017 4.1% 11.0% 7.0% 4.6% 2.4% 2018E 3.7% 7.8% 4.2% 3.9% 0.3% 2019E 3.3% 6.8% 3.5% 3.0% 0.6% 2020E 3.1% 6.0% 2.9% 2.0% 1.0% 2021E 2.9% 5.5% 2.6% 2.0% 0.6% 2022E 2.7% 5.0% 2.3% 2.1% 0.2%

Source: DB Estimates, Company Info

Merchandising remains one of ULTA’s key differentiators: As in past analyst days, we expect ULTA to devote considerable time to a discussion on merchandising, focusing on newness and growth from both bigger and more nascent brands, which of course will include Kylie Cosmetics. We also expect an update on ULTA's boutique rollouts with their Clinique, Lancôme, Benefit and MAC partnerships, among others. ULTA will also likely highlight their private label business, which we think is about 7% of sales but growing. Also, within the merchandising discussion, ULTA is likely to update their salon strategies. The salon business continues to grow, but remains less than 5% of sales and in fact has fallen slightly as a percent of sales.

Cost optimization program to offset inflation: As we outline below, we believe ULTA will outline a path to improving operating margins beyond 2018, with much of the improvement driven by a cost optimization program. ULTA is in the early innings of implementing this initiative and we expect to hear more details on areas of potential savings to offset typical retail cost pressures from wages, transportation and other costs of doing business.

Long term financial discussion – we model a high teens earnings algorithm Similar to the last analyst day, we expect ULTA to provide a three year financial discussion, using 2018 as the base year and going out to 2021. Below we look at each of the major line items on the P&L, outlining ULTA’s previous guidance on each (which was based on 2017 through 2019 outlook), as well as where we expect the next long term outlook to point to and then finally our own estimates within that framework.

Comps in the mid-single digit range: ULTA’s previous guidance assumed annual comps of 7%-9%. Based on our estimate of 7.8% for 2018 and 6.8% for 2019, ULTA will just about hit this guidance. Looking ahead, we would expect some moderation in this outlook. If ULTA guides in the 6%-8% range, we believe that would be viewed favorably. On the other hand, a 5%-7% outlook may point to more moderation than bulls hope for. Our three year average comp outlook is 6.1%. Within this outlook, we expect ecommerce to grow 15%-25% annually, contributing about 2% to comps, with the remaining 4% coming from stores.

New store growth in the high single digits: As noted above, we expect ULTA to stick to a plan of 100 new stores a year, similar to what was outlined last analyst day. At that rate, ULTA will finish 2021 with 1,471 stores, within their long term outlook of 1,400-1,700. This would translate into 8.0% average square footage growth a year

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Total sales up in the low teens annually: ULTA’s previous new store model showed first year sales of just over $3mm, or 70% of a mature store. But we believe stores have been opening better than that. As such, we are modeling 80% new store productivity. Using that against our 8.0% average new store growth and an average comp of just over 6% translates into a total sales CAGR of 12.5% through 2021 to just under $9.6b.

Operating profit growth in the mid teen range: U LTA had targeted a mid-teen operating margin to over 15% by 2019 at their last analyst day. But, investments driven by tax reform as well as several areas of cost inflation and faster than expected ecommerce penetration make that plan less likely. Looking ahead, we do believe margins will improve and we are at just under 14% by 2021, up from just under 13% in 2018. We expect the 80 bps improvement to come almost entirely on the cost line, with some benefit in cost of goods sold from leveraging supply chain investments. In total, this translates to 14.4% EBIT growth on average.

EPS growth of high teens: ULTA has consistently grown EPS in the 20%+ range. But, as square footage slows and comps naturally moderate from high levels, our model does suggest an outlook more in the high teens range. Including our EBIT growth assumption and layering in about 3% benefit from share buybacks, or an average of about $500mm repurchased a year through 2021, we calculate a long term EPS growth rate of 17.5%. This includes a 24% tax rate and still makes ULTA one of the better growth stories in retailing.

Figure 11: ULTA long term earnings algorithm

$mm, except per share amounts Store y/y Total y/y Operating y/y Operating y/y y/y Comp EPS count change sales change profit change margin change (bps) change

2018E 1,171 9.0% 7.8% $6,723 14.3% $871 9.2% 12.9% (60) $11.01 29.9% 2019E 1,271 8.5% 6.8% $7,646 13.7% $1,011 16.1% 13.2% 27 $13.09 18.9% 2020E 1,371 7.9% 6.0% $8,575 12.2% $1,153 14.1% 13.5% 23 $15.33 17.1% 2021E 1,471 7.3% 5.5% $9,537 11.2% $1,304 13.1% 13.7% 22 $17.83 16.3%

2018E-2021E CAGR 7.9% 6.5% 12.4% 14.4% 17.4%

Source: DB Estimates, Company Info

Increasing price target but maintain rating

ULTA’s stock has outperformed YTD, up 22% (as of 11/1/18 close) compared to the market up 2.5% and the XRT up 6.0%. This puts ULTA back at a premium valuation, trading at 21.3x Factset consensus 2019 estimates. This is topped by only COST in our coverage group and names like BURL, FND and FIVE more broadly. The current retail average is 15.6x. We are increasing our price target to $263 based on 20x our 2019 EPS estimate, up from $244 which was based on a 19x P/E multiple. This is a premium to our long term growth rate forecast of 17.5% as ULTA’s above average comps, even as we model moderation in the coming years, does warrant an above average multiple.

We see the biggest downside risk being increased online competition as well as slowing square footage growth. To the upside, we see risks from increased penetration of newer products, which could lead to higher than excepted market share gains.

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Figure 12: ULTA NTM P/E Ratio

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

Data based on consensus next 12 month estimates, except where indicated below. P/E Relative P/E (versus S&P 500) 10 Year Average 29.1x 204% 5 Year Average 29.5x 180% Current 23.2x 148%

Versus consensus 2019 estimates 21.4x 140%

Source: DB Research, Factset

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Important Disclosures *Other information available upon request

Disclosure checklist Company Ticker Recent price* Disclosure ULTA Beauty ULTA.OQ 274.52 (USD) 31 Oct 2018 2 *Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies, and other sources. For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primary subject of this research, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on our website at https://research.db.com/ Research/Disclosures/CompanySearch. Aside from within this report, important risk and conflict disclosures can also be found at https://research.db.com/Research/Topics/Equities? topicId=RB0002. Investors are strongly encouraged to review this information before investing. Important Disclosures Required by U.S. Regulators Disclosures marked with an asterisk may also be required by at least one jurisdiction in addition to the United States.See Important Disclosures Required by Non-US Regulators and Explanatory Notes. 2. Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) makes a market in equity securities issued by this company. Important Disclosures Required by Non-U.S. Regulators Disclosures marked with an asterisk may also be required by at least one jurisdiction in addition to the United States.See Important Disclosures Required by Non-US Regulators and Explanatory Notes. 2. Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) makes a market in equity securities issued by this company. For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primary subject of this research, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on our website at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/CompanySearch Analyst Certification The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s) about the subject issuer and the securities of the issuer. In addition, the undersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. Mike Baker

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Historical recommendations and target price. ULTA Beauty (ULTA.OQ)

(as of 11/01/2018) 400.00 Current Recommendations Buy Hold Sell 6 300.00 Not Rated 4 Suspended Rating 5 13 7 9 8 ** Analyst is no longer at 3 10 1121 Deutsche Bank 200.00 1 2 Security price

100.00

0.00 Jan '16 Jul '16 Jan '17 Jul '17 Jan '18 Jul '18 Date

1. 12/04/2015 Hold, Target Price Change USD 170.00 Michael Baker, 8. 12/01/2017 Hold, Target Price Change USD 225.00 Michael Baker, CFA CFA 2. 03/11/2016 Hold, Target Price Change USD 178.00 Michael Baker, 9. 01/12/2018 Hold, Target Price Change USD 275.00 Michael Baker, CFA CFA 3. 05/27/2016 Hold, Target Price Change USD 225.00 Michael Baker, 10. 02/06/2018 Hold, Target Price Change USD 260.00 Michael Baker, CFA CFA 4. 08/26/2016 Hold, Target Price Change USD 280.00 Michael Baker, 11. 03/11/2018 Hold, Target Price Change USD 244.00 Michael Baker, CFA CFA 5. 12/02/2016 Hold, Target Price Change USD 295.00 Michael Baker, 12. 03/16/2018 Hold, Target Price Change USD 215.00 Michael Baker, CFA CFA 6. 05/26/2017 Hold, Target Price Change USD 300.00 Michael Baker, 13. 05/07/2018 Hold, Target Price Change USD 244.00 Michael Baker, CFA CFA 7. 08/25/2017 Hold, Target Price Change USD 250.00 Michael Baker, CFA

§§§§$$$$$§§§§§

Equity Rating Key Equity rating dispersion and banking relationships Buy: Based on a current 12- month view of total share-holder return (TSR = percentage change in share price from current price to projected target price plus pro-jected dividend yield ) , we recommend that investors buy the stock. Sell: Based on a current 12-month view of total share-holder return, we recommend that investors sell the stock. Hold: We take a neutral view on the stock 12-months out and, based on this time horizon, do not recommend either a Buy or Sell. Newly issued research recommendations and target prices supersede previously published research.

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