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Southern Balkan Challenges After the Hague Indictment

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Southern Balkan Challenges After the Hague Indictment Conflict Studies Research Centre Balkans Series 0 5/12 Southern Balkan Challenges After The Hague Indictment James Pettifer Key Points * The Hague indictment of Kosovo Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj offers both opportunities and dangers for the international community. * The US, while supporting the general principle of Kosovo independence, is currently letting the Europeans take the lead on the issue. * There is a short window of opportunity for political progress if a major conference can be arranged to progress the political status issue. * In the medium term, if political progress is not forthcoming, the risk of conflict in the region, in Kosovo, Macedonia, Preshevo and Cameria increases substantially. 05/12 Southern Balkan Challenges After The Hague Indictment James Pettifer The indictment sending Kosovo Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj to the Hague Tribunal (ICTY) had been long expected after a period of preparation of Kosovo and international public opinion. The fact that he has accepted the indictment and has gone to the Hague voluntarily has provided a good public relations coup for the Kosovo Albanian leadership by contrast to the intransigence and lack of cooperation with ICTY in most other Balkan countries, and is likely to increase the pressures for rapid progress towards independence within Kosovo. But it is not seen that way in Serbia, and the Serbian position is increasingly closely linked to the residual influence of Greece and its associated orbit within the EU. The party of Hardinaj is in general seen in Kosovo and the world in general as very much aligned to the Anglo-American axis within Kosovo and had only about 8% of the votes. Although there are able secondary figures in it, and Haradinaj’s chosen successor, Bajram Kosumi has become the new Prime Minister, there is no obvious replacement for the mixture of political capacity, war record, personal charm and energy of Haradinaj, and as the party was formed from a number of different groups in 2001, some with very radical origins, it remains to be seen what its future will be. This party is important in extra-regional terms, as it dominates the key section of western Kosova adjoining the border with Albania. The great advantage for the international community (IC) of stopping the ICTY indicting Haradinaj was that he was a profoundly capable figure who accepted most UK and US policy initiatives, whatever they were, and played a very responsible role in ethnic relations at the time of the March 2004 crisis. He is a man who had learned western European languages, abandoned militarism and provided a positive role model for many of his wartime followers. As the evidence against him at the Hague is widely believed to come from exclusively Serbian and Russian witnesses, and the Hague judicial committee is believed to have originally agreed in December 2004-January 2005 that it was insufficient for indictment, his arrest is likely to be seen in Kosovo as a poor reward for extensive cooperation with UNMIK and the Kosovo authorities and a productive, if short, period as Kosovo Prime Minister. In EU terms, the arrest is a victory for Greece and Greek-aligned nations such as Denmark, who have been arguing that the arrest of Haradinaj would give the political initiative back to ‘moderates’ and condemn the Kosova Liberation Army (KLA) heritage in the eyes of other Albanians. It represents an appeasement of renewed nationalism in Serbia and the success in recent local elections of the Serbian Radical Party.1 There is one single positive aspect of Haradinaj’s departure from the political scene, which is that he may be replaced as Prime Minister by someone who is regarded as acceptable as a negotiating partner for Serbia. It remains to be seen if this will be the case with Bajram Kosumi, who was also very active in the KLA orbit in the war 1 Southern Balkan Challenges After The Hague Indictment Conflict Studies Research Centre ISBN 1-905058-09-8 March 2005 05/12 James Pettifer and had previously been gaoled by the Serbs for several years in the 1980s as a student leader. But enforced bilateral negotiations are clearly the EU strategy and also something positive for some sections of opinion in Washington, who still hope the Europeans can provide a ‘solution’ to the Kosovo problem without undue US involvement or responsibility. The very odd revival by European foreign policy chief Javier Solana of the old ‘3 republics’ idea for a Serbia-Montenegrin-Kosovo confederation also reflects the revival within the EU of atavistic political ideas dating from the late 1990s. According to this trend of almost exclusively European opinion, the Kosovo Democratic League of Dr Ibrahim Rugova can be mobilised as a ‘moderate’ force, and a deal with Serbia could be brokered at a political conference that falls short of Kosovo independence.2 This viewpoint has superficial attractions particularly for some of the anti-Muslim Roman Catholic lobby in the EU orbit and anti-Islam neo-cons in the US, but rests on a wholly dated and obsolete view of Kosovo Albanian politics, in particular the firm commitment of the LDK party to independence and the growing Kosovo organic links with Macedonian Albanians which will endanger the political process in Macedonia if Kosovo independence is stalled.3 The analysis itself rests on wishful thinking. The main benefactor of the indictment in terms of inner-Kosovo realpolitik is not Rugova who has had to accept the continuation of the AAK/LDK coalition in government but actually the PDK party of ex-KLA political spokesman Hashim Thaci, which now has about 30% of the vote and is the main opposition party in Parliament in Prishtina. Thaci’s party has not been well supported in far western Kosovo, mainly as a result of AAK votes for the Haradinaj interest there after the wartime period. In the absence of Haradinaj at the Hague, Thaci and the PDK can challenge for this new potential support. Thaci-allied forces overthrew the ‘moderate’ previous leadership of the Preshevo Albanians in the 2003 elections, and Preshevo also offers the PDK in Prishtina major political opportunities. The role of Greece as a closet standard bearer in the EU for Serbian nationalist aspirations to retain control of Kosovo is also risking the opening of a military dimension to the Cameria human rights campaign in north west Greece. This issue is likely to play a central role in the coming Albanian election campaign in summer 2005. US Policy in Flux The visits of US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and President Bush to Europe last month were a clear signal of the intentions of the new administration to rebuild US/EU links in the aftermath of the Iraq elections. Kosovo as an issue was discussed, and it appears that Ms Rice was won over to the view that the US should stick strongly to the current UN ‘Standards before Status’ policy. This is not a major new departure but is likely to delay the nation building process somewhat, as it will be used by Greece and associated opinion within the EU and Russia as a means of delaying any progress whatsoever towards independence. It was noticeable during the visit of Greek leader Karamanlis to Kosovo in the first week of March that he made frequent reference to the need to involve Russia in the negotiations for the future of Kosovo, which with the current Putin administration is a guarantee that Kosovo independence (or indeed any real pressure on Serbia to even attend political status talks, in all probability) will be vetoed. Thus an autumn crisis over Kosovo beckons. 2 05/12 Southern Balkan Challenges After The Hague Indictment The US was content to leave the mechanics of the indictment and arrest to the UK, with a carefully orchestrated visit of Foreign Office Minister Denis MacShane which promoted Haradinaj’s achievements, a visit by General Mike Jackson and a deployment of UK forces to augment KFOR capacity and the dispatch of senior UK diplomat Carne Ross to be Haradinaj’s diplomatic advisor in February. Opportunity For Progress There is a short period of time, perhaps as little as three months, for political progress to be made before the undercurrent of resentment and anger at the indictment of Haradinaj widely felt in Kosovo Albanian circles leads to political radicalism and possibly paramilitary violence. If this takes place, the Serbs in Kosovo will be the first victims. The Hardinaj family has made considerable sacrifices for Kosovo, including two of the Prime Minister’s brothers being killed, and some will see his arrest as just the latest United Nations-led assault on a hero of the liberation war, and on the KLA heritage in general. The absence of UN or ICTY action to arrest the numerous thugs and murderers from the wartime period among the Serb community who currently reside freely in northern Mitrovica and Leposavic has also not gone unnoticed. If the IC has concrete progress to offer the 95% Albanian majority - and the only real progress that matters is the starting date for a political status conference - then the departure of Haradinaj to the Hague may have been politically justified, however morally repugnant to most Kosovars and friends of Kosovo. If progress is not made, then it is likely to increase Albanian radicalism considerably. Paramilitary action will be a politically attractive option for more nationalist Albanians, as they can now argue that the Haradinaj indictment shows that the key sections of the IC are prepared to override their own internal justices and manipulate the rule of international law to protect renewed Serbian nationalism, and that only force on the ground is respected, as in Macedonia in 2001.
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