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Download Pdf Format Eastern Focus ISSUE 04 | Autumn 2020 A project by GlobalFocus Center, Bucharest The West vs. the Rest: like a Rolling Stone China: decoupling from the dragon A (geopolitical) Europe missing in action Democracy in intensive care The World After Tomorrow Table of Oana Popescu Zamfir: Editor's Foreword ______ p.002 DISRUPTION / 006 DEMOCRACY AND RESILIENCE / 090 Contents Interview John C. Hulsman, global political-risk Adéla Klečková (Prague): Murder, blackmail consultant (Milan): The West should avoid and corruption - why CEE needs the Beatles’ predicament and become the Magnitsky Act ________________________________ / p.092 more like the Rolling Stones ___________________ / p.008 Andrei Tiut (Bucharest): It's a tough choice Zsolt Darvas (Budapest): to hold elections during the pandemic ______ / p.102 Relocating production from China to Central Europe? Not so fast! ________________/ p.016 CHANGING CHARACTER OF CONFLICT / 108 Interview David Kilcullen, professor of practice, Marius Ghincea (Florence): This is Sparta! Insights from international relations theory into Arizona State University (Tempe): Warfare in the age of dragons _________________ / p.110 what the post-Covid world might look like / p.024 Liviu Horovitz (Zurich): ‘We didn’t think it was Alec Bălășescu (Frankfurt): Will computers decide who lives and who dies? Ethics, going to be a peaceful world’ - Brent Scowcroft and the world he helped fashion ______________ / p.122 Health, and AI in a COVID-19 world _______ / p.034 Interview Ulrike Franke, policy fellow, Maria Pilar Lorenzo (Brussels): Human security carving itself out European Council on Foreign Relations (Brussels): ‘We are still in a world where military in a (post)COVID-19 world____________________ / p.048 power translates into geopolitical power. Interview Mathew J. Burrows, director of the If Europe wants to sit at the table, it needs Atlantic Council’s Foresight, Strategy, military capabilities’ ____________________________ / p.128 and Risks Initiative (Washington D.C.): ‘Governments can band together in a fight Interview Samir Saran, President, Observer Research against China and authoritarianism, but Foundation (New Delhi): ‘If the EU fails, we can say goodbye to the liberal order’ ______________ / p.136 the real threat is more from inside’__________ / p.054 Interview Kuni Miyake, research director, About Eastern Focus Interview Parag Khanna, global strategy Canon Institute for Global Studies (Tokyo): advisor (Singapore): ‘Europe has no interest in A focus on Central-Eastern Europe, It is more than a trade war between decoupling from Asia’ ___________________________ / p.060 the Black Sea and the Balkans, US and China, it is a hegemonic rivalry ____ / p.148 in a transatlantic key #EUROPEONWARD / 066 Bucharest-based English-language Dimitrios Triantaphyllou (Istanbul): quarterly bringing regional voices, ideas Turkey and the quest for limited and topics to the great debates of today. autonomy from the West _______________________ / p 068 Shedding light on regional developments. Srecko Latal (Sarajevo): EU can’t afford SPECIAL BRIEF: Anchored in democratic values. Delivered to lose the battle for the Balkans ______________ / p 074 Iran’s endgame - between straight to the movers' and shakers' Elsa Lilja (Brussels): Pandemic of discord. American sanctions inboxes across Europe, America and Will the EU allow Kosovo - Serbia peace and the Covid-19 pandemic globally. Connecting people across to slip through its fingers? _____________________ / p 082 Ioana Constantin Bercean / p.154 geographies and thought bubbles. Eastern Focus Issue 04, Autumn 2020 Editor's Foreword happens to a majority or to a wide minority, Trump is one half of The global pandemic then that is the sign of structural problems which need to be heeded, not brushed aside a deeply divided America dismissively as an accident of history. … of which Covid-19 that is here to stay. Indeed this is exactly what many of us, at least in Europe, hoped the four Trump is only a symptom years would prove to be, after the US 2020 elections result: an accident of history, lasting a painful four years, but now over and locked away in a Pandora box never to be opened again, discussed and tackled discreetly, with gradual and sometimes cosmetic measures, as per the political habit of the past many many years. Thank God it’s over, good man Joe will With the US elections still undecided as this now bring back some of the grace of the Obama years, even if article is being written, either way this goes, little else, and the angry pro-Trump crowds will be silenced. Donald Trump wins. And that is because the redhead reality TV star-cum-businessman The record turnout though lends implacable legitimacy not turned politician, whom all the quality media just to the result, but also to these crowds. From QAnon, to and ‘quality people’ mocked as a clown (albeit the white supremacists, the gun lobby, the radical pro-life a dangerous one), is in fact truly an institution. movement, anti-vaxers, anti-maskers, they have spoken at the He is the embodiment of all the suppurating ills polls, they have exercised their sacred democratic right to elect that have been sapping at the root of America’s freely and very much within the rules of the democratic game, democracy, politics, society and standing in the they have made their choice following four years of intense world for decades, if not centuries. They have not debate and amid an equally powerful tide of anti-Trumpism, been unknown all this while; just unaddressed. which has also taken to the polls in high numbers. Whoever wins, there is no democratic argument that can be made that But this is not to say that Donald Trump the these huge numbers of people should not be properly heard, institution is inherently evil; the man may be, but that their claims should not be taken seriously and addressed this collection of realities that he gave a voice to is promptly by their newly elected representatives – even if in their not. In a democracy, people are sometimes wrong, manifestations during these four years and before they have but the grievances that underscore the options of often abdicated democracy, decency, reason and common Trump voters are real. This mood of dissatisfaction sense. Donald Trump did not create these realities; he has can be politically manipulated, a minority can be harnessed them and climbed on the wave – not as a leader, but radicalised, Russia can meddle, but if the same rather as a follower of public mood and thus he may be a toxic, pathogen agent, but to consider all those whom he represents © Photo by Steluța Popescu as such would be a terrible and antidemocratic mistake. Oana Popescu Zamfir @OanaPope Editor-in-chief, Director GlobalFocus Center Trump is one half of a deeply divided America that is here to stay. 002 003 Eastern Focus Issue 04, Autumn 2020 Much like the coronavirus. Just as toxic and itself. The fragility of our liberal system and the to how the West can kick back and stay relevant, following the ravaging, but equally not guilty of the realities underlying rule of law is the reason why Europe, Rolling Stones model to avoid the Beatles’ predicament. it has revealed, rather than created. From and specifically Central-Eastern Europe (CEE), the neglected global climate change and needs a Magnitsky Act, writes Adela Kleckova None of this is likely to happen though, unless the EU learns to flex the numerous warnings we’ve had about the (Czechia). Along the same lines, anthropologist some muscle and use its position as the (now increasingly sole) imminence of associated pandemics, to changes Alec Bălășescu (Germany/Romania) outlines flagbearer ofliberal values as its most powerful geopolitical weapon, in work routines and labour markets, from the ethical choices and dilemmas in a world says Samir Saran (India). The EU is in the difficult, but uniquely powerful gentrification, overcrowded cities and their perils, where the decision-making role of computers position to determine the course of East-West competition, he says. to global supply chains, dependencies and value and artificial intelligence over our health and Geopolitical Europe is another prominent topic in this double issue of creation, from work-life balance to the lagging lives has turned overnight from a more or less Eastern Focus and ECFR’s Ulrike Franke (Belgium/Germany) explains behind of education and healthcare systems, we remote scenario to immediate reality. Hence, the to what extent this objective, declared at the onset of the von der are being confronted with everything we have very concept of security itself needs to evolve Leyen European Commission, stands a chance to become reality. known about but chose to look the other way. from outdated ideas of hard power, to a more Much like the ridiculous clown that Donald Trump encompassing notion of human security – so that Beside internal challenges and differences, the EU also finds itself often is (one of the reasons he’s been constantly our delivery instruments can evolve accordingly, without its prime ally, the United States, now caught between underestimated by ‘serious’ analysts), this virus writes Maria Pilar Lorenzo (Philippines/Belgium). democratic backsliding, economic problems, efforts to stem is not by far as deadly or contagious as Ebola or the spread of the pandemic at home, and external challengers HIV. Transmission can be stemmed dramatically China made a prominent comeback to the (aside from China, Iran will soon prove influential and the nuclear with just
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