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External Influence Over Foreign Policy and Inter-Ethnic Relations: the Case of Republic of North Macedonia

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External Influence Over Foreign Policy and Inter-Ethnic Relations: the Case of Republic of North Macedonia University “Ss. Cyril and Methodius” Faculty of Philosophy Skopje DOCTORAL DISSERTATION EXTERNAL INFLUENCE OVER FOREIGN POLICY AND INTER-ETHNIC RELATIONS: THE CASE OF REPUBLIC OF NORTH MACEDONIA SUPERVISOR CANDIDATE Michael Schulz, Ph.D. Gjeraqina Leka, M.A. Skopje, October 2020 Table of Contents ABSTRACT4 PREFACE5 CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION8 Structure of the problem10 Research questions13 Research Aim14 Disposition of thesis16 CHAPTER 2. OVERVIEW OF MACEDONIA’S FOREIGN POLICY AND INTER-ETHNIC RELATIONS18 The history of the consolidation of the state of Macedonia since 199018 Macedonia’s challenges during its consolidation as a state20 Inter-ethnic relations since 199122 Macedonia’s foreign policy since 199033 Structure and actors of Macedonia’s foreign policy33 Foreign policy developments since 199140 Relations with Albania45 Relations with Bulgaria49 Relations with Greece52 Relations with Kosovo56 Relations with Serbia58 Bilateral Agreements between the Republic of Macedonia and its neighbors60 The relationship between foreign policy and inter-ethnic relations73 CHAPTER 3. PREVIOUS RESEARCH79 Literature review80 Concept of small states89 Foreign policy of small states99 Determinants of small states foreign policy behavior101 Security oriented Foreign policy105 Integration oriented foreign policy127 Contribution of this study141 CHAPTER 4. TOWARDS A THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK142 Is Macedonia a small and weak state?149 2 Macedonia within the Western Balkan sub-regional security complex157 Macedonian-Albanian security complex161 Macedonia-Neighbors security complex169 Macedonia-the EU security complex172 CHAPTER 5. METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES175 Methodology175 Qualitative Research175 Limitation of the study181 Analyzing Data182 Ethical considerations185 CHAPTER 6. PRESENTATION OF FINDINGS186 Theme 1: Unwavering strategic goals189 Theme 2: The southern neighbour, an inhibitor of the Euro-Atlantic aspirations192 Theme 3: Neighbours who cross the fence201 Theme 4: Foreign policy a victim of faulty domestic policy204 Theme 5: Foreign policy, a monopoly of a single ethnic group207 Theme 6: Two ethnicities divided by EU and NATO212 Theme 7: EU and NATO, a guarantee for domestic stability220 Theme 8: Compromise, a pathway to accomplishment225 Theme 9: Vital decisions require collective responsibility229 Theme 10: Time is now235 CHAPTER 7. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION240 Discussion240 Linking the findings with the existing knowledge248 Conclusion256 ANNEX260 1 - Map of Macedonia and its neighbors260 2 - Sample of interview questions261 BIBLIOGRAPHY264 3 ABSTRACT In an era of dynamic international integrations, the role they play not only in the international but also in the domestic relations, merits a particular scholarly attention. This dissertation addresses the issue of international and national integration interplay, by exploring a relationship between foreign policy behavior and inter-ethnic relations in small, multi-ethnic states. The role of foreign policy is observed through its international integration posture, namely through the behavior it demonstrates towards external factors which condition the state’s international integrations. The effects of this behavior are explored within the internal relationships of ethnically different groups. The research uses the case of Macedonia to explore the above- mentioned relationship between foreign policy and inter-ethnic relations. Its main arguments, formulated on the basis of two research questions, state that foreign policy acts as a factor of unity between ethnically different groups, who project similar preferences towards foreign policy orientation. External challenges to such foreign policy orientation, however, represent threats which may diminish the unifying role that foreign policy projects over ethnic groups with low level of national integration. The thesis is structurally organized into the theoretical and empirical chapters. It mainly uses an explorative approach as the most suitable methodology to explore complex relationships which require complex understanding. The thesis also presents existing knowledge on small states’ foreign policy and national integration theories, needed for helping the qualitative findings take the form of statements and gain transferable application to other settings. The introduction chapter of this thesis presents the research problem, questions, aims, and disposition. The following three chapters present different theoretical aspects, beginning with a historical overview of Macedonia’s foreign policy and inter-ethnic relations, then with a review of existing literature, and finally with construction of a theoretical framework. The empirical chapters begin with the description of methodological approaches, focusing on semi-structured interviews as the main tool for data collection and on thematic analysis as main instrument for the findings’ analysis and discussion. The chapters of findings, discussion, and conclusion present the main results gained from the research. They reveal a strong unifying role that foreign policy has over Macedonia’s inter-ethnic relations, which is, however, highly challenged by 4 external bilateral threats. Foreign policy’s response towards the external threats results as a significant determining factor of unity or division between ethnic groups of a small state. PREFACE Born and raised within a family environment in which politics is followed both as passion and profession, I became conscious since very early on about the political challenges that my country was going through since its birth. Within a context of political, ethnic, religious and social polarities, the ‘reality’ lies in the eye of the beholder. Through a scientific research of political and social phenomena, I decided to explore the multi-faceted perceptions on the Republic of Macedonia’s main external challenges, its foreign policy behavior towards the latter, and the effects of this behavior over the inter-ethnic relations domestically. Hence, the main purpose of this research would become to shed some light over a social and political reality, as it may be perceived and experienced by different parties, in a given moment of time. The scientific approach towards external and internal challenges, which the Republic of Macedonia began to encounter immediately after its independence, is principally divided. Most studiers, search the roots of domestic challenges, especially of the inter-ethnic disputes, within the internal factors. The existing scientific analysis on the absence of inter-ethnic cohesion, which ultimately impedes the building of a collective identity, refers to the lack of internal will of the domestic groups, political factors, and domestic policies. Much less attention is paid to the international environment and the analysis of its impact on the unification or division of the ethnic groups. As the Republic of Macedonia embraced a pro-western international integration agenda, since the first decade of its statehood, the question that began to form in my mind was whether this foreign policy orientation could play a role or act as an influencer of the inter-ethnic relations domestically? This inquiry was further supported by an observation of the inter-ethnic resemblance of attitudes on the international integrations, a similarity that is rarely noticed in different policy areas, especially in the domestic ones. The impediment of the international integration agenda by the aggravation of external bilateral disputes, however, seemed to complicate the relationship between international and national integration. Precisely, such complex developments, triggered an interest to research and explore whether there is a 5 relationship between international and national integration, and how such relationship is affected by the presence of external disputes, which Macedonia faces with its neighboring states. I began this research with the conviction that it would offer an interesting scientific contribution, as it would link foreign and domestic policy by studying foreign policy ties and challenges, and their ability to create divisions or unification between different ethnic groups. Furthermore, this research is expected to shed light over the factors which dominate the foreign policy debate within a multi-ethnic state, with few inter-ethnic commonalities. At this point, it is significant to stress that the main arguments, on which the research is based, endured quite some changes, during the writing process. As a work which belongs the social sciences family, the evolution of the researched factors is an expected phenomenon. However, it is impossible, considering the narrow scope of this research, to account for all evolved/modified phenomena, especially as they take place after the process of data collection. Instead, this work captures only a certain time-frame, during which the majority of the data was collected, and it consequently bases its findings and analysis on the already gathered evidence. However, in order to provide a whole contextual picture for the reader, it is important to indicate the major changes which developed in foreign policy, almost immediately after the empirical data analysis of this work ended. Several undertaken activities in foreign policy led to a change in the tensioned relationships with the neighboring states and in the frozen progress of international integrations. Although many of such activities were finalized after 2018, their realization cannot be attributed solely to the 2017 change of government. The previous
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