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Home , Auchinleck, Ayrshire, Ballantrae, Bellsbank, Bourtreehill, Broomlands

HOUSING MARKET AREA STRUCTURE IN : A CONSULTATION PAPER

1 INTRODUCTION

This paper looks at the geographic structure of housing markets in and across Ayrshire. The paper was prepared as part of a wider study into affordability and migration issues commissioned by a consortium consisting of Communities and the three Ayrshire local authorities.

The results reported are tentative at this stage, as the purpose of the paper is to seek the views of housing and planning professionals1 on the geographic areas identified.

The paper is organised as follows:

• The next section summarises the main objectives of the wider study of which this paper forms the first output

• Prior to dealing with specific issues, we then deal briefly with the issue of what we mean by a housing market area

• The paper then summarises what the structure of the Ayrshire housing market was considered to be at the beginning of the decade

• The methods we used to examine the current spatial structure of the Ayrshire housing market are then briefly discussed, and we consider the questions:

− Whether the geographical structure of the Ayrshire housing markets have changed significantly since 2000

− Whether there are signs of any emerging overlaps between the boundaries of the major housing markets that operate across Ayrshire

Prior to finalising our conclusions on market structure, we would welcome views on the extent to which the boundaries that we have identified match the perceptions of interested housing and planning professionals. Once we finalise these boundaries, we will use the resulting geographic structures to analyse affordability and migration issues further.

1 Structure and local planning staff (in Ayrshire and and Clyde Valley), Communities Scotland area staff, estate agents, social landlords and Homes for Scotland

2 OVERALL STUDY OBJECTIVES

Several key drivers are currently shaping housing demand across Ayrshire:

• Continued growth in household numbers together with a growth in the real incomes of most households is increasing demand for private housing from within the existing resident population.

• At the same time, there are signs of an increase in external demand from households seeking to move to Ayrshire, primarily from the Glasgow city and the wider Glasgow housing market area.

• With the completion of the M77 extension to Fenwick in spring 2005, there is a strong impression that the Ayrshire housing market, particularly in North and , has undergone a transformation in the level of demand, which has resulted in steep rise in house prices since 2004.

Looking ahead, two policy developments are likely to further increase housing demand. The Scottish Executive’s regeneration policy framework ‘People and Place’ and the current Ayrshire Structure Plan seek to improve transport connections and support economic developments. The current Structure Plan also proposes to facilitate increased rates of housing construction to provide the ‘principal lever to kick-start a process which will put Ayrshire on the path to growth’ and ensure ‘closer integration with the Glasgow City-Region’.

This study was therefore commissioned to explore the current dynamics of the Ayrshire housing market and associated migration flows and more specifically to address the following questions:

• What is the current spatial structure of the Ayrshire housing market?

• How has this changed over the last five years, and why?

• What have the affordability implications of this change been?

• In what ways may the Ayrshire housing market change in the next five years, and what might be the affordability implications of this change?

Other aspects of the study involve a survey of recent house purchasers and analysis of price and income trends once the underlying geography for the work is identified. Study findings are expected to inform the continued development of policies in relation to the provision of affordable housing.

3 This consultative paper is therefore focused on the first of the four questions identified above – namely, what is the current spatial structure of the Ayrshire housing market?2

IDENTIFYING HOUSING MARKET AREAS

It may be helpful at the outset to define what the term housing market area means in this paper, and indicate why the spatial structure of the housing market is important.

A market, according to economists, is where consumers and suppliers come together to exchange products or services at a negotiated and agreed price. The price mechanism is the means by which demand and supply in the market are adjusted and brought into balance (DTZ Pieda Consulting 2003a).

Various factors distinguish the housing market from markets for other products.

• Housing is both a consumer good and an investment good. Homeowners derive immediate consumer benefits from being able to secure a place to live in a location of their choice. In the longer term, homeowners expect to make a financial return because of capital appreciation.

• Current and anticipated interest rates strongly influence housing demand and supply decisions because the development and purchase of housing generally involves borrowing private finance over several years.

• As Barker (2003, 2004) has highlighted, housing supply is relatively price inelastic over the short and medium term. In the short term, increased demand and rising prices do not lead to a corresponding increase in supply. There are several possible reasons why housing supply is not very responsive to price signals, but a major reason is that it takes a long time to secure land and construct housing.

• The housing market, unlike those for many other products, also has a strong spatial dimension. Consumers buying a property generally seek to continue to live in reasonable proximity to where they currently live. This is because households generally choose to live in reasonable travelling distance of work, educational institutions, required services, and family and friends. Many households may also have a general sense of belonging to an area. The main exceptions are households pursuing a major change in lifestyle such as change in place of work or retirement to a different part of the country.

2 As Craigforth are currently conducting a housing market analysis for Arran, this report does not examine housing market boundaries for this Local Plan Area.

4 A local housing market is typically conceived to operate across an area where most households are willing to consider searching for and purchasing alternative accommodation without changing employment or pursuing other major lifestyle changes. As guidance on local housing system analysis produced by Communities Scotland explains:

A housing market area can therefore be defined as the geographical area where most people both live and work and where most people moving home (without changing job) will have sought a house (p 42).

As households tend to take little account of local authority boundaries when searching for housing, housing market areas can and often do operate across local authority boundaries.

If there is sustained excess housing demand in an area (in the sense that there are more households searching for properties than the number of properties available for sale) households may adjust their search activity. Aside from revising the price they are willing to pay, some households will broaden the types of properties they are willing to consider. Some households will also broaden the locations over which they are willing to consider purchasing a home.

More generally, increased disposable income and wealth, which many households have experienced, have been accompanied by changing lifestyles and the distance people are willing to travel in pursuit of housing and locational attributes. This has led to expansion of some local housing markets. In part, this underpins the process commented on by Donovan et al (2002):

Researchers have used the term “counter-urbanisation cascade” to describe net population flows from most urban areas to the suburbs; from the suburbs to the fringes; and from the fringes to rural areas. This process of out-migration from cities is associated with life-stage: young people are attracted to metropolitan areas for the facilities, leisure and nightlife. However, the stage of partnership and family formation is associated with migration to the suburbs and beyond (p13).

Housing market boundaries are therefore fluid and change over time. However, housing markets are rarely wholly self-contained and most exhibit some degree of overlap with and influence from adjacent housing market areas.

Housing market areas (HMA) may also contain important sub-divisions that reflect tenure and other factors. Most major housing market areas contain smaller areas where house prices and house price inflation exceed those for the housing market as a whole as well as locations where housing demand is comparatively weak and where house prices lag behind.

5 PREVIOUSLY IDENTIFIED AYRSHIRE HMA BOUNDARIES

The Ayrshire housing market has a complex geographic structure that has been the subject of some debate in recent years.

The Current Ayrshire Structure Plan

Scottish Ministers approved the current Ayrshire Joint Structure Plan in January 2000. The current Ayrshire Joint Structure Plan treats each of the three Ayrshire local authority areas as a separate HMA. This is based on extensive analysis of 1991 Census data, and an examination of Sasines based migration flows amongst those who purchased between 1993 and 1996. Both datasets showed that each local authority area had a high degree of self-containment.

Figure 1: Ayrshire Structure Plan HMA boundaries

Source: Ayrshire Joint Structure Plan 1999

6 As figure 1 shows, the current Structure Plan also identifies a number of ‘sub- HMAs’. These local HMAs are reflected in the current suite of local plans and local housing strategies for Ayrshire.

Table 1 provides a summary description of each HMA/sub-HMA, and notes the priority regeneration areas situated in each one.

Table 1: Current Ayrshire strategic planning HMA framework Major HMA Sub HMAs ROA Priority areas Irvine/: This area covers the southern part of , including Springside, which forms Irvine Regeneration Area part of the Irvine Regeneration Area. Kilwinning Regeneration Area Regeneration Area Three : This area covers the coastal towns of Regeneration Area Ardrossan, Saltcoats, Stevenston Regeneration Area North Ayrshire : , East Ayrshire, and border this area. It includes the Regeneration Area towns of , Dalry, Kilbirnie, Gateside, Barmill, and . North Coast: this area includes , , and Millport on the Isle of Cumbrae Arran: is home to 4% of North Ayrshire’s population and has its own Local Plan. and Loudon: Aside from the administrative centre of Kilmarnock this area includes the Irvine valley settlements of , , Kilmarnock (North) , and the northern settlements Kilmarnock (South) located close to the M77 extension, including Dunlop, Galston , , and Fenwick. : This includes the local service hub of Cumnock. It also includes the villages of East Ayrshire and Catrine, which are believed to have been Lugar and Logan influenced by the upturn in housing demand in the /North Carrick and Doon Valley area. Ayr/North Carrick/Doon Valley (part): This includes the local service hubs of and as well as smaller settlements such as Dalrymple, Patna Hollybush, , and . Drongan

Ayr/North Carrick/Doon (part): This includes Ayr, Ayr North including parts of , and , which together cover over two Whitletts and South thirds of ’s population. It also includes Ayrshire the smaller settlement of to the south. Wallacetown /Newton & South Carrick: Girvan including , Barr, Barrhill, , , Pinmore and Girvan Pinwherry Sources: Ayrshire Joint Structure Plan 1999; East/North/South Ayrshire Regeneration Outcome Agreements

7 It should also be noted that:

• Arran has its own Local Plan, while the remaining sub-HMAs in North Ayrshire form the North Ayrshire Local Plan area.

• The LHS for East Ayrshire further disaggregates the Kilmarnock and Loudon sub-HMA into three smaller areas – the Northern area (Fenwick, Stewarton, and Kilmaurs), Irvine Valley (Galston, Newmilns and Darvel) and Kilmarnock.

• A recent affordable housing study (Tribal, 2006) further disaggregates the Kilmarnock sub-area into three housing department management areas:

o Kilmarnock Central (, Gatehead & , Kilmarnock Central West, Kilmarnock Central East, Grange/Howard and Kilmarnock Central South)

o Kilmarnock North (Altonhill, Hillhead and Longpark, Onthank, North New Farm Loch & Dean and South New Farm Loch)

o Kilmarnock South, including Riccarton, Shortlees, Bellfield

• The South Ayrshire housing needs study conducted by Fordham Research (2004) subdivides the Ayr, North Carrick and Doon Valley sub-HMA into 5 smaller areas and the Girvan and South Carrick sub-HMA into 2 smaller areas. In addition, 29 localities across South Ayrshire have been granted pressured area status by the Scottish Executive3:

− The Ayr, North Carrick and Doon Valley areas and associated pressured area neighbourhoods and settlements are:

o Ayr , which includes eleven pressured areas

o Prestwick, which includes nine pressured areas

o Troon

o Rural North which includes the pressured area of

o Maybole, which includes 3 pressured areas

− The Girvan and South Carrick areas with the following associated settlements granted pressured area status:

3 This suspends the Right to Buy (RTB) of social rented tenants with a tenancy that started after 30 September 2002.

8 o Girvan

o Rural South, which includes the 4 pressured areas of Barr, Barhill, Colmonnell and Pinmore

The New Ayrshire Structure Plan

A new Ayrshire Structure Plan (2006a) was submitted to Scottish Ministers in June 2006. Approval is expected (with or without final modification) in March 2007. This Structure Plan is underpinned by a long-term goal of maintaining the Ayrshire population at around 363,000. This is to be achieved by responding to the needs and aspirations of the existing population and - in a new policy development4 - by making Ayrshire more attractive to households relocating to Ayrshire. Increase in inward migration is to be achieved through a combination of improved transport links, improved employment opportunities and an increase in land made available to boost rates of new build beyond those achieved over the past decade.

The new Ayrshire Structure Plan does not explicitly refer to housing market areas. However, one of its supporting documents (2006b) examined self- containment levels for each local authority area for the period from 1996 to 2004 as a whole. This document confirms that each local authority remains a distinct housing market area and that the local housing markets set out in table 1 remain relevant:

The Ayrshire housing market involves 7-8,000 transactions annually (excluding right to buy property). Almost 70% of house purchaser transactions move to another home within the same local authority area. This level of self-containment is greatest in areas where the influences of commuting and retirement markets are less. Markets influenced by buyers external to Ayrshire, include the Arran, Clyde Coast and the Garnock Valley areas (page 15)

Looking forward, the new Ayrshire Structure Plan defines the towns of Ayr, Kilmarnock and Irvine and ‘their associated communities’ (which includes Ardrossan, Saltcoats, and Stevenston) as the ‘Core Investment Area’, for future transport, economic and housing development. Around 65% of new housing planned for the period to 2025 to be built in this area. This hints at a possibility that in the longer term the ‘Core Investment Area’ may gradually develop into a single housing market area. As the Plan states:

The towns of Ayr, Kilmarnock and Irvine and their associated communities form a closely inter-related urban network at the very

4 Pieda DTZ (2003b) noted that the current Ayrshire Structure Plan acknowledges that demand from the Glasgow area affects parts of Ayrshire’s housing market but the strategy did not seek to plan to meet this potential demand because it was contrary to sustainable development.

9 heart of Ayrshire. This grouping contains the majority of the area’s population, economic activity and services, and, as the focus of the transport network…The towns act as key focal points attracting the largest proportion of new development and have the greatest potential for attracting new investment in the future. Government policy recognises this and identifies a Central Ayrshire Economic Development Zone as a priority in the National Planning Framework. The Core Investment Area is based on this Development Zone and within this area the plan promotes the inter-dependence of good transport links, modern infrastructure with residential and business opportunities, and an upgraded landscape setting. This establishes a new vision for the towns in the context of their immediate area and, in this regard, there will be clear competitive advantage to be had from their collective integration and interdependence (p8).

Figure 2: Ayrshire Structure Plan Development Framework, 2006

Source: Ayrshire Joint Structure Plan 2006

10 The new Ayrshire Structure Plan also seeks to promote development across seven ‘investment corridors’ that radiate out along main road and rail transport routes. Each investment corridor includes one or more local economic and service centres. As figure 2 shows, these investment corridors are:

• The North Coast investment corridor, which is intended to strengthen the economic and service role of Largs

• The Garnock Valley investment corridor, which has Kilbirnie as the main service centre

• The Glasgow Link investment corridor north of Kilmarnock, which includes the service centre of Stewarton

• The Irvine Valley investment corridor, which includes the service centre of Galston

• The Doon Valley investment corridor, which has Dalmellington as the main service centre

• The M74 link investment corridor which includes the service centres of Auchinleck and Cumnock

• The Carrick investment corridor in South Ayrshire which includes the service centres of Maybole and Girvan

Communities Scotland HMAs

In 2002, Communities Scotland proposed four major housing market areas in Ayrshire based on analysis of Sasines data on the origins and destinations of house purchasers from 1996 to 1999. These four housing market areas were the:

• Ayr HMA, which extends to Troon and Dundonald in the north, Maybole and in the south and Dalmellington and Patna in the southeast.

• Irvine HMA, which includes Kilwinning and Springside.

• The ‘three towns’ HMA, which includes Ardrossan, Saltcoats and Stevenston.

• Kilmarnock HMA, which includes Fenwick, Kilmaurs, and most of the Irvine Valley, including Darvel but not Mauchline or other Cumnock villages.

11 Figure 3: Communities Scotland Major HMAs in Ayrshire

Source: Communities Scotland (2002) Ayrshire, and Housing Market Context Statement

Communities Scotland also suggested there was an identifiable overlap between the Glasgow housing market area and East Ayrshire. Communities Scotland proposed that the Greater Glasgow HMA extended as far south as Stewarton, which is situated in the northern sub-area of the Kilmarnock and Loudon sub HMA.

Pieda DTZ (2003a-c) subsequently undertook a review of the housing market areas proposed by Communities Scotland. The study found that although there remained some dispute over the specific location of boundaries, there was a general acceptance that the influence of the Glasgow housing market was likely to grow because of the M77 extension to Fenwick.

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METHODS USED TO REVIEW HOUSING MARKET BOUNDARIES

To establish any significant changes in the areas identified by the Structure Plan Team and Communities Scotland/ DTZ Pieda analyses of HMAs outlined above, we examined annual transaction trends and migration flows using Sasines data provided by Communities Scotland since the start of 2000.

There is no single or ‘correct’ method for defining market areas. Following consultation with the steering group for this project, we examined whether each of the three local authority areas continue to display a high level of self- containment using origin based containment. The steering group agreed that the self-containment threshold should be defined as 65% of purchasers originating in an area.

In addition, we examined centre to periphery purchaser flows using the method developed by Communities Scotland and DTZ Pieda (see table 2 for a short description of this method).

Table 2: Centre to Periphery Purchaser Flows

This method involves applying up to five tests to ascertain whether a settlement is connected with a main urban centre or town in a sequential fashion, with tests 2 onwards only being applied where the preceding test proves inconclusive. Assume Ayr is the core urban centre and Maybole is the settlement, then:

If the first test demonstrates that a ‘reasonable’ proportion of purchasers moving to Maybole originate in Ayr then Maybole is deemed to be part of the Ayr HMA

If the first test is inconclusive, then a second test is undertaken to establish whether a ‘reasonable’ proportion of all movers from Maybole buy in Ayr. If this is so, then Maybole is deemed part of the Ayr HMA

If this second test proves inconclusive, then a third test is undertaken to examine whether a ‘reasonable’ proportion of new build house sales in Maybole are sold to households moving from Ayr

If this third test proves inconclusive, then a fourth test examines whether a ‘reasonable’ proportion of purchasers moving to Maybole come from Ayr and its immediate surrounds (for example Ayr and Prestwick)

If this fourth test proves inconclusive, the fifth and final test is to examine whether a ‘reasonable’ proportion of households selling in Maybole relocate and buy in Ayr and adjacent locations (for example Prestwick)

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Of particular interest were:

• Flows between Ayr, Kilmarnock, Irvine and the three towns HMAs and the extent to which they appear to be forming one major HMA.

• Flows from and the degree of inter-connectivity between the Glasgow conurbation and various parts of Ayrshire.

Again, there is no single or ‘correct’ value for what comprise a ‘reasonable proportion’ of households for the purpose of conducting these tests. The DTZ Pieda report suggests that the threshold should be at least 10%. This was adopted for the major HMA areas. However, it was considered inappropriate for areas with fewer than 6-700 sales and where sales numbers fluctuate from one year to another. In such areas we therefore adopted a threshold of 15%.

Tests 4 and 5 were specifically designed to examine flows between large metropolitan areas such as and the Lothians and larger towns (such as ). Hence these tests were only sparingly used by Communities Scotland when in identifying the Ayrshire HMAs.

Similarly, the new build test (test 3) is only meaningful where there are a reasonable number of new build sales (over 100) from one year to the next. The small number of new build sales identified in the Sasines data combined with under-reporting of new build sales data from 2003 onwards meant that it was not possible to generate meaningful outputs for test 3 other than for the Ayr HMA. The following analysis therefore concentrates primarily on tests one and two.

ANALYSIS OF HOUSE PURCHASERS AND SELLERS MOVES

Volume of transactions

Within the Ayrshire Structure Plan (Ayrshire SP) area as a whole, the volume of mainstream transactions (i.e. excluding RTB sales and other unusually high or low priced properties) has increased over the past 6 years. In the period from 2000 to 2005 sales increased from 6-7,000 annually to 8-9,000. There was an apparent dip in housing transactions in 2004, but we suspect this is because some 2004 sales have been recorded as occurring in 2005. The upward trend in sales is evident across all 3 local authority areas (see Figure 4).

14 Figure 4: Number of private sales by area, 2000-05

10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000

n 4000 u

m 3000

b 2000 e r 1000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

North Ayrshire East Ayrshire South Ayrshire Structure Plan Area Source: Communities Scotland

Whilst numbers have fluctuated from year to year, Sasines data indicates there has been an overall decline in new build sales - from around 900-1,000 in 2000/1 to around 6-700 in 2004-5. As a result, new build as a proportion of all sales has declined from 12% to 8% (see Table 3).

However, there some question marks over the accuracy of this data should be noted. Scottish Executive statistics indicate that private sector new build completions have exceeded 1,000 annually over the period. As households relocating from the Glasgow and Clyde Valley SP area purchase higher proportions of new build properties than local purchasers, we suspect that the flow of households from Glasgow and Clyde Valley is higher than reported in the following analysis. Equally, flows from the major HMA areas to other parts of Ayrshire may be under-reported.

Table 3: Volume of Sales in Ayrshire Structure Plan Area, 2000 to June 2006 2006 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 (Jan to June) New Build 12.0% 13.1% 9.4% 8.9% 9.4% 7.9% 7.7% Other Sale 88.0% 86.9% 90.6% 91.1% 90.6% 92.1% 92.3% All 6,736 7,161 7,931 7,955 6,454 8,635 3,940 Source: Communities Scotland

Self Containment at Local Authority Level

Table 4 presents the annual number of recorded transactions for each local authority area in Ayrshire from 2000 to 2006 together with the proportion of purchasers that remain in the same local authority area. It also summarises the

15 proportion of purchasers that originate in the rest of the Ayrshire SP area, the proportion that originate from the Glasgow and Clyde Valley SP area, and the proportion originating from elsewhere in Scotland, the UK or abroad (which are classed as ‘other’). As the 2006 data only covers the period from January to June, this data is provided for information only, and is not discussed in the analysis presented below5.

The findings summarised in table 4 suggest that North Ayrshire should no longer be thought of as a self-contained area. In most years to 2005 the proportion of purchasers originating within the local authority area was below the chosen self- containment threshold of 65%. A major reason for this is that over 1 in 6 purchasers originate in Glasgow City and other parts of the Glasgow and Clyde Valley SP area. Parts of North Ayrshire are also popular with long-distance purchasers, such as households retiring to the area.

Table 4: Annual number of sales and origin of purchaser by local authority area, 2000-2006 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 North Number of sales 2,389 2,539 2,972 2,882 2,446 3,299 1,550 Ayrshire North Ayrshire 63.9% 66.1% 61.4% 60.7% 60.5% 60.1% 65.8% Rest Ayrshire SP 3.8% 4.6% 5.6% 5.8% 6.2% 7.3% 5.5% GCVSP 17.1% 15.4% 18.0% 18.8% 17.9% 18.5% 13.4% Other 13.0% 11.4% 11.4% 12.0% 12.7% 11.2% 10.2% Unknown 2.3% 2.5% 3.6% 2.6% 2.7% 2.8% 5.2% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Number of sales 1,940 2,058 2,190 2,294 1,826 2,537 1,246 East East Ayrshire 68.4% 68.4% 67.9% 67.7% 68.5% 64.1% 58.1% Ayrshire Rest Ayrshire SP 10.9% 10.3% 10.5% 11.0% 11.9% 14.0% 12.7%

GCVSP 12.3% 11.8% 12.3% 12.2% 9.9% 11.2% 10.7% Other 5.7% 6.4% 6.6% 6.8% 7.6% 7.6% 14.8% Unknown 2.7% 3.2% 2.6% 2.3% 2.1% 3.1% 3.7% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Number of sales 2,407 2,564 2,769 2,779 2,182 2,799 1,144 South South Ayrshire 71.3% 68.8% 69.6% 67.7% 66.8% 67.7% 64.5% Ayrshire Rest Ayrshire SP 10.6% 10.3% 9.2% 10.0% 9.9% 10.7% 10.5%

GCVSP 7.3% 7.4% 7.1% 7.3% 9.9% 8.1% 9.0% Other 8.6% 11.0% 10.5% 12.5% 9.9% 10.2% 11.4% Unknown 2.2% 2.5% 3.6% 2.5% 3.5% 3.3% 4.6% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Source: Communities Scotland

East Ayrshire is also becoming more open. In the period from 2000 to 2005 the proportion of properties sold to purchasers moving from the Glasgow and Clyde Valley SP area for the most part fluctuated between 10-12%. East Ayrshire has

5 Sales completed by June exclude properties purchased in May and June where legal contracts have yet to be finalised. As such the data provides an incomplete picture of flows. The upturn in the proportion of sales in North Ayrshire in 2006 going to local buyers may simply be because those seeking to move a longer distance tend not to search for housing until spring has arrived.

16 also experienced a growth in the proportion of purchasers moving from elsewhere in Ayrshire, up from 11% in 2000 to 14% in 2005. This increase has been driven primarily by an increase in households relocating from South Ayrshire. The number of purchasers moving from South Ayrshire to East Ayrshire almost doubled in the period from 2000 to 2005. Much of this increase has occurred since 2003. In 2005 over 10% of purchasers in East Ayrshire came from South Ayrshire. This compares with 7% in 2001 and 7.5% in 2003.

Turning to South Ayrshire, the number of properties sold to households already living in Ayrshire over the period increased from around 1,700 to 1,900, although actual numbers have fluctuated from year to year. Nonetheless, the proportion of sales going to existing residents has fallen by 3.6% since the start of the decade. In 2005 just under 68% of purchasers already lived in South Ayrshire compared to over 71% in 2000. The main reason for this has been an increase in the number of purchasers’ moving to South Ayrshire from the rest of Scotland (other than Glasgow and Clyde Valley SP area) and beyond.

North Ayrshire Purchaser Flows Analysis

Irvine HMA

As seen, an Irvine housing market area is recognised by Communities Scotland as well as being identified in the North Ayrshire Local Plan. The number of house sales in Irvine recorded in Sasines increased from around 900 in 2000 to 1,250 in 2005 (see table 5). In 2005 around 38% of all house sales in North Ayrshire occurred in the Irvine HMA area. However, the number of new build sales recorded in Sasines has fallen in both numerical and proportionate terms. In the period from 2000 to 2002 new build sales accounted for over 12% of all sales recorded in Sasines, compared to 9% in the period from 2003 to 2005. The actual number of new build sales had fallen from 125 per annum to 101 per annum.

Over 70% of households from Irvine that purchased a property in the 6 years to December 2005 bought a property in the Irvine HMA (see table 6). Moreover, households already living in the Irvine HMA purchased 67% of all properties sold over this period. However, the proportion is falling, which suggests this HMA is becoming more open.

There are some signs that Irvine is developing closer links with the Three Towns. In 2005, 12% of all purchasers originating in the Three Towns HMA purchased a property in the Irvine HMA. The comparable figure in 2001 was 6.5% (see Table 6). Over the 6 years as a whole, 9.5% of all purchasers originating in the three towns HMA moved to the Irvine HMA.

There are also some early signs that Ayr and Kilmarnock are developing stronger links with Irvine. Since 2000 the number of households re-locating from

17 Kilmarnock and Ayr to Irvine has increased from 50 to around 140 households per annum. As a result, 10% of purchasers in the Irvine HMA in 2005 originated in the Ayr or Kilmarnock HMA compared to 5% in 2000. By contrast, the number of households relocating from Irvine to Ayr and Kilmarnock remains little changed. In 2000 and 2005 only 2% of purchasers in the Ayr HMA and only 3% of purchasers in the Kilmarnock HMA came from the Irvine HMA.

Table 5: Origin based flows to HMA areas in Ayrshire (where purchasers come from) All Three Else All Year Sales Ayr GCVSP Irvine Kilmarnock Towns where (1) Sales 2000 2,358 71.3% 6.7% 2.1% 3.2% 0.7% 16% 100% Ayr 2001 2,462 69.3% 7.3% 1.8% 3.3% 0.5% 18% 100%

2002 2,670 71.0% 6.2% 2.0% 3.1% 0.3% 17% 100% 2003 2,669 68.8% 6.0% 2.5% 3.7% 0.5% 18% 100% 2004 2,155 67.4% 8.7% 2.3% 3.1% 0.4% 18% 100% 2005 2,801 68.2% 7.1% 2.4% 4.0% 0.3% 18% 100% 2000 898 3.2% 6.0% 71.9% 2.4% 3.6% 11% 100% Irvine 2001 969 4.1% 6.8% 70.1% 3.3% 3.6% 12% 100%

2002 1,143 5.1% 8.0% 67.6% 3.4% 4.5% 11% 100% 2003 1,076 4.9% 8.0% 65.5% 4.3% 4.6% 13% 100% 2004 866 5.5% 9.6% 62.4% 5.8% 4.8% 12% 100% 2005 1,245 5.5% 7.8% 63.4% 5.8% 5.9% 12% 100% 2000 1,303 4.5% 12.1% 3.1% 68.2% 0.8% 11% 100% Kilmarnock 2001 1,392 3.5% 12.9% 3.4% 67.3% 0.7% 12% 100% 2002 1,436 5.3% 13.3% 3.6% 65.4% 0.3% 12% 100% 2003 1,531 6.0% 12.4% 3.5% 66.2% 0.7% 11% 100% 2004 1,211 6.6% 10.2% 2.5% 68.9% 0.5% 11% 100% 2005 1,628 7.2% 11.3% 2.8% 64.3% 0.6% 14% 100% 2001 644 0.6% 9.6% 6.7% 0.8% 62.7% 25% 100% Three Towns 2002 778 2.1% 12.2% 7.2% 1.2% 53.0% 20% 100% 2003 738 1.9% 13.0% 6.5% 1.2% 56.4% 24% 100% 2004 705 2.6% 11.1% 7.5% 1.3% 55.0% 21% 100% 2005 799 2.3% 10.1% 10.6% 1.5% 54.2% 23% 100% Source: Communities Scotland 1Elsewhere includes unknown, which now accounts for 3-4% of sales as well as sales to households originating in the rest of Ayrshire

Sales to purchasers originating from the Glasgow and Clyde Valley SP area have gradually increased but the actual number of households involved is relatively small. In 2005 only 97 households relocated to the Irvine HMA from the Glasgow and Clyde Valley SP area. This is far lower than numbers re-locating to Kilmarnock or Ayr. It is also far lower than the number of households relocating from the Glasgow and Clyde Valley SP area to the north coast area of North Ayrshire.

18

Table 6: Destination based flows from HMA areas in Ayrshire (where sellers go to)

All Three All Year Sales Ayr GCVSP Irvine Kilmarnock Towns Scotland Sales 2000 2121 79.3% 7.9% 1.4% 2.8% 0.3% 8.3% 100% Ayr 100% 2001 2150 79.4% 7.6% 1.9% 2.3% 0.2% 8.7% 2002 2490 76.2% 8.3% 2.3% 3.1% 0.6% 9.5% 100% 2003 2399 76.6% 7.4% 2.2% 3.8% 0.6% 9.4% 100% 2004 1945 74.7% 8.7% 2.5% 4.1% 0.9% 9.0% 100% 2005 2565 74.5% 8.0% 2.7% 4.6% 0.7% 9.6% 100% 100% Irvine 2000 881 5.7% 7.0% 73.3% 4.5% 4.2% 4.8% 2001 919 4.8% 6.3% 73.9% 5.1% 4.7% 5.2% 100% 2002 1065 5.1% 6.5% 72.6% 4.9% 5.3% 5.7% 100% 2003 975 6.8% 5.9% 72.3% 5.5% 4.9% 4.5% 100% 2004 790 6.3% 7.5% 68.4% 3.8% 6.7% 7.3% 100% 2005 1112 5.9% 5.1% 71.0% 4.1% 7.6% 6.2% 100% Kilmarnock 2000 1163 6.4% 9.2% 1.9% 76.4% 0.3% 5.8% 100% 2001 1226 6.6% 7.4% 2.6% 76.4% 0.4% 6.5% 100% 2002 1287 6.5% 9.9% 3.0% 73.0% 0.7% 6.8% 100% 2003 1373 7.3% 9.1% 3.4% 73.8% 0.7% 5.8% 100% 2004 1152 5.8% 10.7% 4.3% 72.4% 0.8% 6.0% 100% 2005 1450 7.7% 8.5% 5.0% 72.1% 0.8% 5.9% 100% Three 2001 535 2.4% 8.4% 6.5% 1.9% 75.5% 4.9% 100% Towns 2002 548 1.5% 7.8% 9.5% 0.7% 75.2% 5.2% 100% 2003 556 2.5% 5.4% 9.0% 1.8% 74.8% 5.3% 100% 2004 505 1.8% 5.7% 8.3% 1.2% 76.8% 6.5% 100% 2005 613 1.3% 7.3% 11.9% 1.6% 70.6% 6.1% 100% Source: Communities Scotland

Three Towns HMA6

The ‘Three Towns HMA’ is also recognised as a distinctive local housing market area by local authority planners and Communities Scotland. Between the start of 2001 and the end of 2005 house sales increased from 575 per annum to 800 per annum, reflecting an upturn in second hand properties coming onto the market. According to Sasines data, new build sales levels remain little changed, with an average of 88 new build properties sold each year.

The available evidence suggests that the Three Towns remain the most important market for local residents seeking alternative accommodation, with well over 70% of households from the Three Towns area opting to remain in the area (see table 6).

6 Due to the unusually low number of sales recorded for 2000, we have restricted analysis of the Three Towns to the period from 2001 to 2005.

19 However, the housing market also attracts a large and growing number of buyers from elsewhere. As table 5 indicates:

• The proportion of all properties being bought by households originating in the Three Towns HMA has fallen from 63% to 54%, although the actual number of such purchases has increased slightly from 404 to 433.

• The numbers of purchasers in the Three Towns that originate from the Irvine HMA has doubled over the past 6 years to 85. Consequently the proportion of properties bought in the Three Town area by someone moving from the Irvine HMA has increased from 7 to 11%. Again, this suggests closer links between these two HMAs are forming.

• Household numbers moving from the Glasgow and Clyde Valley SP area increased slightly in 2002 and 2003 but have since fallen back. In 2001, 62 purchasers came from the Glasgow and Clyde Valley SP area compared to over 90 in 2003 and 2004 and 81 in 2005. Over the 5 years as a whole, 11% of all purchasers moved from Glasgow and Clyde Valley SP area.

• Around a fifth of purchasers are relocating from elsewhere in Scotland (14%) or and abroad (5%). Around a quarter of the 100 or so purchasers relocating from elsewhere in Scotland each year move from the North Coast and Garnock Valley areas of North Ayrshire.

There is no indication that links with either the Ayr HMA or Kilmarnock HMA are forming. On average only 21 households per annum have moved from the Three Town HMA to the Ayr HMA or Kilmarnock HMA. Thus less than 1% of purchasers in either HMA originate from the Three Towns HMA. Likewise, only 22 households on average move from either HMA to the Three Towns HMA each year (equivalent to 3% of purchasers in the Three Towns HMA).

North Coast

Over the six year period there have been 3,280 sales in the north coast area, of which only 6% (less than 200) are classified as new build. Three out of four properties sold each year are situated in the town of Largs.

The housing market in the North Coast has become increasing open. In the 3 years to December 2002 households already resident in the North Coast area purchased an average of 52% of properties sold there. In the 3 years to December 2005 this proportion fell to 47%. Nonetheless, the actual number of households purchasing locally has increased. In 2005 a total of 315 purchasers (44%) originated in Largs or elsewhere along the North coast compared to 256 purchasers (51%) in 2000.

Table 7 shows that since 2000:

20 • The number and proportion of sales to purchasers moving from the Glasgow and Clyde Valley SP area has increased. In 2005 a total of 195 purchasers (27%) came from the Glasgow and Clyde Valley SP area. In both 2000 and 2001 around 121 households moved from the Glasgow and Clyde Valley SP area (24% and 22% respectively).

• Close to a fifth of purchasers are long distance movers re-locating from the rest of Scotland (other than the Glasgow and Clyde Valley SP area) or further afield. We suspect large numbers of these households are retiring to the area and/or moving back to live closer to relatives.

• Sales to households from the rest of North Ayrshire remain below 4%, as have flows from East and South Ayrshire. On average fewer than 30 households each year have relocated from the rest of Ayrshire to the North Coast.

Table 7: North Coast: Number of Sales and origin of purchaser 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Number of sales 502 555 606 618 465 712 North Coast 51.0% 55.1% 49.5% 46.0% 50.1% 44.2% GCVSP 24.1% 21.8% 22.6% 25.9% 26.0% 27.2% Rest North Ayrshire 3.0% 2.7% 2.8% 2.6% 2.2% 3.8% Rest of Ayrshire SP 1.8% 2.3% 1.8% 2.8% 0.6% 3.7% Elsewhere (incl unknown) 20.1% 18.0% 23.3% 22.8% 21.1% 20.9% Source: Communities Scotland

We therefore conclude that the North Coast continues to have few connections with the rest of Ayrshire. However, the level of influence and degree of overlap with the Greater Glasgow area appears to be increasing.

Garnock Valley

On average 350 properties are sold each year in the Garnock Valley area, with upwards of 7 out of 10 of these sales occurring in the settlements of Dalry and Beith. New build sales remain modest but have doubled to 45 per annum in the past 24 months.

Table 8 indicates that this housing area is open and attracts a reasonably large proportion of buyers from outwith Ayrshire. Just half of all properties sold in the past 3 years have been purchased by households living in the Garnock Valley area and over a quarter have been to purchasers moving from the Clyde Valley SP area. Most of these households are re-locating from neighbouring local authorities, including Renfrewshire, rather than Glasgow City itself.

21 There has been a slight increase in the proportion of sales to households moving from the rest of North Ayrshire since 2000 (from 17 to 29) but the numbers remain small. Overall, less than 10% of buyers moved from elsewhere in North, East or South Ayrshire. Garnock Valley therefore continues to have few links to the major housing market areas of Ayrshire.

Table 8: Garnock Valley: Number of Sales and origin of purchaser 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Number of sales 346 275 353 358 315 454 Garnock Valley 59.0% 56.4% 51.0% 51.4% 49.5% 50.9% GCVSP 22.0% 22.2% 28.9% 30.4% 24.1% 26.2% Rest North Ayrshire 4.9% 4.7% 5.1% 5.9% 8.9% 6.4% Rest of Ayrshire SP 1.2% 2.9% 2.0% 2.2% 3.2% 2.4% Elsewhere (incl unknown) 13.0% 13.8% 13.0% 10.1% 14.3% 14.1% Source: Communities Scotland

Like the North Coast area therefore, Garnock Valley is an open area, which is subject to influence from Greater Glasgow but continues to fall outwith the sphere of influence of the four major Ayrshire HMAs.

East Ayrshire Purchaser Flows Analysis

Kilmarnock HMA

As seen, a Kilmarnock housing market area is recognised by Communities Scotland as well as being identified in the North Ayrshire Local Plan, although the boundaries of the two differ. Figures in table 5 and 6 refer to the Communities Scotland definition, which excludes Stewarton (with an average of 160 sales per annum) and some small settlements included in the Local Plan definition. House sales have increased over the past six years. In 2005 there were around 1,630 house sales in the Kilmarnock HMA. The number of sales increases to 1,860 if Stewarton and the other areas are included.

Kilmarnock HMA remains a distinctive housing market area. Almost 3 out of 4 households from the Kilmarnock HMA that purchased a property in the six years to December 2005 bought a property in the HMA (see table 6). In addition, households already living in the HMA purchased 66% of all properties sold.

Although the Kilmarnock HMA displays relatively high levels of self-containment, initial analysis suggested that a more complex pattern of links with the Glasgow and Clyde Valley and South Ayrshire areas has been emerging over the past 5 years. To investigate these further, we examined flows in relation to the three smaller areas identified in the East Ayrshire LHS – Kilmarnock Area, Northern Area and Irvine Valley.

22

Kilmarnock Area

As expected, the Kilmarnock area dominates the Kilmarnock HMA. It accounts for over two thirds of all sales in the HMA. In the last 6 years there have been 6,532 sales. Sasines data contains comparatively few new build sales from 2003 onwards. There were 728 new build sales from 2000-2002 but only 252 new build sales from 2003-2005. It was therefore not possible to examine trends in the pattern of new build purchasers.

In the 6 years to 2005 close to 6 out of 10 households originating in the Kilmarnock area and who purchased a home remained in the area. A further 10% of purchasers originated from the rest of East Ayrshire, in the main from other sub-areas of the Kilmarnock HMA.

Looking at annual trends, it appears that whilst the proportions of local purchasers fluctuate from year to year, it is falling slowly. The small but gradual fall in the proportion of sales to households originating from the Kilmarnock area is not due to an increase in the number or proportion of purchasers moving from the Glasgow and Clyde Valley area. Table 9 indicates that the proportion of purchasers originating from Glasgow and Clyde Valley actually fell by 1.3% but this may as previously noted be due to under-reporting of new build sales.

What has been critical has been an increase in the number and proportion of purchasers moving from the rest of Ayrshire and in particular South Ayrshire. Table 9 shows that purchasers moving from the rest of the Ayrshire Structure Plan area have increased by 2.5%. More specifically the number of purchasers moving from South Ayrshire has double over the period. In 2005 100 purchasers moved from South Ayrshire, equivalent to 8.3% of all purchasers. Virtually all these purchasers came from the core urban area of the Ayr HMA7.

Table 9: Kilmarnock Area: Number of sales and origin of purchaser 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Number of sales 1,052 1,104 1,118 1,179 876 1,203 Kilmarnock area 59.9% 56.9% 55.8% 57.4% 61.2% 57.3% GCVSP 9.7% 10.0% 11.4% 8.7% 7.3% 8.4% Rest East Ayrshire 10.7% 10.6% 10.8% 10.3% 9.7% 10.0% Rest of Ayrshire SP 9.0% 9.9% 9.6% 11.3% 10.6% 11.5% Elsewhere (incl unknown) 10.6% 12.7% 12.3% 12.2% 11.2% 12.9% Source: Communities Scotland

7 Ayr/Prestwick/Troon/surrounding villages form the core urban area of the Ayr HMA

23 Northern Area

On average there are 257 sales in the Northern Area each year, of which 6 out of 10 occur in the settlement of Stewarton. New build sales remain modest – averaging 22 per annum- but have doubled to 45 per annum since 2004.

Table 10: Northern Area: Number of Sales and origin of purchaser 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Number of sales 248 250 254 296 231 260 Northern Area 31.9% 47.6% 49.2% 49.0% 44.6% 44.2% GCVSP 31.0% 24.8% 20.9% 30.7% 22.9% 25.4% Rest of East Ayrshire 16.1% 7.6% 13.4% 8.4% 15.6% 9.6% Rest of Ayrshire SP 7.7% 8.4% 7.1% 4.4% 8.7% 8.5% Elsewhere (incl unknown) 13.3% 11.6% 9.4% 7.4% 8.2% 12.3% Source: Communities Scotland

Of the 1,539 house sales in the 6 years to December 2005:

• Households moving locally purchased 45%. Households moving from the Kilmarnock sub area purchased a further 10%. In total 56% of purchasers (860) originated in the Kilmarnock HMA area.

• Households moving from the Glasgow and Clyde Valley SP area purchased 26% (402 sales), almost half of which came from Glasgow city.

• Households moving from the Glasgow and Clyde Valley SP area purchased 52% of the 182 new build sales.

Irvine Valley Area

From 2000 to 2005 there were 3,458 house sales in Irvine Valley. The majority of all sales were located in Darvel and Galston. Over the period both resales and new build sales have increased. Nonetheless, numbers of new build remain low. In 2005 just 26 new build sales were recorded in Sasines and over the period new build sales averaged only 14 sales per annum.

Table 11: Irvine Valley: Number of sales by origin of purchaser 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Number of sales 210 248 281 303 284 386 Irvine Valley Area 52.9% 61.7% 51.2% 53.1% 51.1% 38.9% GCVSP 11.0% 13.3% 11.7% 12.5% 8.5% 13.5% Rest of East Ayrshire 21.4% 15.3% 18.1% 17.5% 22.5% 25.1% Rest of Ayrshire SP 7.1% 2.8% 9.6% 7.9% 8.5% 10.4% Elsewhere (incl unknown) 7.6% 6.9% 9.3% 8.9% 9.5% 12.2%

24

A number of factors indicate that Irvine Valley continues to form part of the wider Kilmarnock HMA:

• The large majority of purchasers (71%) in the six years to 2005 already lived locally (51%) or came from the rest of East Ayrshire (20%) in the main from the other sub areas of the Kilmarnock HMA.

• There is no evidence that either the number or proportion of sales to households from the Glasgow and Clyde Valley SP area is increasing. On average 34 households relocate annually from the Glasgow and Clyde Valley SP area. Over the six years 12% of purchasers moved from the Glasgow and Clyde Valley area, and less than 5% moved from Glasgow city.

• Whilst there has been some increase in the number and proportion of purchasers moving from North and South Ayrshire, the number remains small – at around 23 households per annum.

Looking across the Kilmarnock HMA as a whole, the above analysis suggests that:

• The Kilmarnock HMA as a whole is self contained although as noted earlier, there are signs of increasing links to Irvine.

• If existing housing supply and demand pressures continue for some time, the Ayr HMA may begin to overlap with the Kilmarnock HMA. Since 2000, the annual number of purchasers moving from the Ayr HMA to the Kilmarnock HMA more that doubled to 118 households (7%). Most of these additional households moved to the Kilmarnock area, which is where possible overlaps between the two HMAS are likely to emerge.

• The flow of purchasers from the Glasgow and Clyde Valley SP area has remained largely unchanged. Somewhere between 160 to 190 purchasers move from the Glasgow and Clyde Valley SP area each year.

• The resulting influence of the flow of purchasers from the Glasgow and Clyde Valley SP area is felt most strongly in the Northern sub-area. In spite of its small size, 4 out of 10 purchasers from the Glasgow and Clyde Valley SP move to the Northern area. The Northern Area is therefore very open and subject to considerable influence from the Greater Glasgow HMA as well as the Kilmarnock HMA. In short, the Northern Area effectively forms an area where the boundaries of these two housing market areas overlap.

25 Cumnock Area

The East Ayrshire Local Plan and LHS identify Cumnock as a distinctive local housing market. Over the six year period there were 2,127 sales, of which just 146 were classified as new build (7%). Most sales occur in the settlements of Cumnock (38%), Mauchline (21%), Auchinleck (17%) and Catrine (9%).

Table 12: Local Cumnock HMA: Number of sales and origin of purchaser 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Number of sales 293 315 394 393 289 443 Cumnock Area 70.6% 69.8% 67.8% 63.9% 62.3% 60.3% GCVSP 4.4% 3.8% 7.4% 5.6% 3.8% 7.4% Rest of East Ayrshire 7.8% 7.6% 6.1% 7.9% 9.7% 10.1% Rest of Ayrshire SP 9.6% 6.7% 7.1% 10.2% 12.1% 10.2% Elsewhere (incl unknown) 7.5% 12.1% 11.7% 12.5% 12.1% 12.0% Source: Communities Scotland

Various factors support local perceptions that the Cumnock area has few links to the Kilmarnock HMA. In the 6 years to December 2005:

• Two thirds of all purchasers (66%) moved within the Cumnock area

• Less than 5% of all purchasers in the Cumnock area moved from the Kilmarnock HMA.

• Just 3.5% of all purchasers that originated from the Cumnock area bought a house in the Kilmarnock HMA area.

• There has been no increase in the number of households moving from the Cumnock area to Kilmarnock HMA in the past six years and there has only been a small increase in the number of households moving from Kilmarnock HMA to the Cumnock area.

On the other hand, there is evidence to suggest that stronger links between the Cumnock area and the Ayr HMA are emerging. Most significantly, in the six years to December 2005:

• 21% of all households (411) that originated from the Cumnock area bought a house in the Ayr HMA.

• 9% of households (191) buying property in the Cumnock area originated within the Ayr HMA.

26 Looking in more detail at flows to and from the Ayr HMA and the settlements of Mauchline and Catrine, we find that:

• Of the 531 properties sold in Mauchline in the six years to the end of 2005, households moving from the Ayr HMA bought 62. This indicates that 12% of purchasers in Mauchline now come from the core urban area of the Ayr HMA.

• Of the 183 sales in Catrine between 2000 and 2006, just 8% were to purchasers (14) moving from the Ayr HMA.

Over the past six years, the Cumnock area has become more subject to influence from the Ayr HMA, especially in the Mauchline area. This suggests that the Ayr HMA is perhaps expanding outwards to incorporate the more accessible parts of the Cumnock area.

South Ayrshire Purchaser Flows Analysis

Ayr and Doon Valley

The Ayr HMA is the largest HMA in Ayrshire and is the only housing market to extend across two local authority areas – South and East Ayrshire. Over the past six years, there have been in excess of 15,100 sales (see table 5). Resales have increased over time and stood at over 2,800 in 2005.New build sales have averaged 246 per annum. Close to 4 out of 10 sales occur in the town of Ayr and a further 30% occur in the towns of Prestwick and Troon.

The Ayr HMA remains a distinctive housing market area. Over the six years as a whole, around 75% of all sellers in the Ayr HMA moved to another home within it. Also, almost 70% of all sales in the Ayr HMA went to purchasers originating from the Ayr HMA (see tables 5 and 6).

At the same time, supply and demand imbalances in the core urban area of the Ayr HMA appear to be increasing the flow of households from that urban core to suburbs and smaller settlements in the wider HMA area. In particular:

• Over 26% of 550 properties sold in the Doon Valley area in the last six years were bought by households moving from the core urban area of the Ayr HMA

• 23% of households purchasing a home in Maybole in 2005 originated from the towns of Ayr, Prestwick or Troon. In 2001 the equivalent figure was 13%.

In short, the links between the urban core of the Ayr HMA and its more suburban and rural hinterland have deepened over the past six years.

27

At the same time, there has been an increase in the number of households moving to other parts of East Ayrshire – notably the Kilmarnock area and to a lesser extent Mauchline.

With the possible exception of Mauchline, flows from the Ayrshire HMA remain below the threshold of 10-15%. However, constraints on development in the core urban area of the HMA combined with the opening up of development opportunities in the Doon Valley and M74 link investment corridors could change the current position and push the boundaries of the Ayr HMA deeper into East Ayrshire.

Girvan and South Carrick

The South Ayrshire Local Plan identifies Girvan and South Carrick as a distinctive local housing market area. In the six years to December 2005 there were 1,437 sales, of which only 5% were new build. Around half of all sales occur in Girvan.

In common with the rural areas in North Ayrshire, this housing market is becoming more open over time (see table 14). In the 3 years to the end of 2002 an average of 49% of properties were purchased by households already resident in this area compared to 39% in the three years since January 2003. The number of households purchasing locally also fell from 352 (117 per annum) to 279 (93 per annum).

Table 14: Girvan and South Carrick: Number of Sales and origin of purchaser 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Number of sales 202 257 263 249 205 261 Girvan &South Carrick 49.0 54.1 43.3 38.6 34.6 42.9 GCVSP 8.9 3.9 8.7 8.0 10.7 7.3 Rest of South Ayr 11.4 7.8 11.0 9.2 9.3 11.1 Rest of Ayrshire SP 5.0 5.4 5.3 3.2 3.4 4.6 Elsewhere (include unknown) 25.7 28.8 31.6 41.0 42.0 34.1 Source: Communities Scotland

There has been a noticeable upturn in the proportion and number of long distance purchasers since 2003. In the 3 years to December 2005 some 277 purchasers relocated from the rest of Scotland (other than the Glasgow and Clyde Valley area) and beyond compared to 209 purchasers in the three years to December 2002. Most of these purchasers bought property in and around rural villages rather than in Girvan town.

There is no evidence of an increase in purchasers from the Ayr HMA. The proportion of purchasers moving from the rest of South Ayrshire has fluctuated

28 between 8 to 11% (equivalent to 20 to 30 households per annum) over the past 6 years. Moreover, only a handful of those buying a home in Girvan Town relocate from the core urban area of the Ayr HMA each year. Sales to households from the rest of Ayrshire also remain very low. On average only 10 to 11 purchasers move from North or East Ayrshire.

Hence we believe that the Girvan and South Carrick area continue to have few connections with the Ayr HMA or the rest of Ayrshire, although the influence of long distance purchasers appears to be increasing. It is possible that rising prices in other rural areas is increasing interest in South Carrick from individuals seeking retirement and/or second homes.

SUMMARY OF PROPOSED CONCLUSIONS

On the basis of the analysis set out in this paper, we suggest that the functional housing market areas in Ayrshire (excluding Arran) be defined as follows:

• Four major housing markets - Ayr HMA, Kilmarnock HMA, Irvine HMA and the Three Towns HMA, based on the principal urban areas of Ayrshire. These areas are shown in figure 5. A list of towns and settlements in each major HMA is provided in appendix 1.8

• Three rural-based local housing markets – North Coast, Garnock Valley, and Girvan and South Carrick. These three local housing markets comprise a combination of local towns and villages. They also have low levels of self-containment and as a result are subject to significant influence of long distance in-migration. North Coast and Garnock Valley are also subject to strong influence from the Greater Glasgow HMA.

In addition, we believe that the Ayr HMA may be expanding outwards to incorporate significant parts of the Cumnock area. However, further evidence is needed in order to reach a firm conclusion that the Cumnock area now forms part of the wider Ayr HMA. Comments would be particularly welcome on this issue, which warrants further consideration and monitoring in the coming months.

8 The three sub areas of the Kilmarnock HMA discussed earlier are shown in varying shades of green in figure 5 for information.

29 Figure 5: Ayrshire Housing Market Areas?

30

QUESTIONS FOR CONSULTATION

This paper has been prepared in advance of detailed discussions with local housing professionals. It has been produced at an early stage in the study to stimulate debate. During our planned consultations, we wish to explore the extent to which the evidence presented in this paper confirms or contradicts the pattern of housing markets perceived to be operating locally.

Questions we would welcome views on are as follows:

• Does the pattern of the four major HMAs and the 3 rural HMAs we have identified look broadly right?

• Should Cumnock be considered as essentially part of an extended Ayr HMA?

• Is the extent of overlaps greater than we have concluded, or less?

• Are there any other factors we should take into consideration in defining the housing market areas of Ayrshire?

Where views are offered on these or any other questions, we would welcome any evidence or information available to support these.

31 REFERENCES

Ayrshire Joint Structure Plan Committee (2006a) Ayrshire Joint Structure Plan 2025: Growing a Sustainable Ayrshire

Ayrshire Joint Structure Plan Committee (2006b) Report of Survey Technical Report 01/2006 Strategic Assessment of Housing Land Requirements

Ayrshire Joint Structure Plan Committee (2006c) Report of Survey Technical Report 06/2006 New Housing –The Key to Developing A Sustainable Ayrshire

Barker, K. (2003), Review of Housing Supply, Interim Analysis, H M Treasury

Barker, K. (2004), Review of Housing Supply, Final Report, H M Treasury

Bramley, G. Pawson, H. and Parker, J (2000) ’Local Housing Needs Assessment: a guide to good practice’, DETR, 2000

DTZ Pieda Consulting, (2003a) Housing Market Areas in Scotland: definition and review, Volume 1: Main Report, Communities Scotland,

DTZ Pieda Consulting, (2003b) Housing Market Areas in Scotland: definition and review, Volume 2: Case Studies, Communities Scotland,

DTZ Pieda Consulting, (2003c) Housing Market Areas in Scotland: definition and review, Volume 3: Guidance on Market Area Definition, Communities Scotland.

Donovan N, Pilch T, and Rubenstein T. (2002) Geographic Mobility, Performance, and Innovation Unit Cabinet-Office, HMSO,

Fordham (2004) South Ayrshire Housing Needs Study

East Ayrshire Council (2004) The East Ayrshire Local Housing Strategy 2004- 2009

East Ayrshire Council (2004) The East Ayrshire Local Housing Strategy 2004- 2009

East Ayrshire Council (2005) Community Planning in East Ayrshire: Regeneration Outcome Agreement

Maclennan, D (1992) Housing search and choice in a regional housing system: new housing in , Report to the Housing Research Foundation, Centre for Housing Research, University of Glasgow

North Ayrshire Council (2005a) North Ayrshire Local Housing Strategy 2005-2010

32

North Ayrshire Council (2005b) LHS Technical Appendix

North Ayrshire Council (2005c) A Regeneration Outcome Agreement (ROA) for North Ayrshire

O’Sullivan, A, Young, G et al (2004) Local Housing Systems Analysis: Good Practice Guide, Communities Scotland

Scottish Executive, (2004), National Planning Framework for Scotland

SLIMS (2005) East Ayrshire 2005 Labour Market Statement

SLIMS (2006) SE Ayrshire 2006 Labour Market Statement

South Ayrshire Council (2004) South Ayrshire’s Local Housing Strategy

South Ayrshire Council (2002) Local Plan

South Ayrshire Community Planning Partnership (2005) Regeneration Outcome Agreement 2005-08

33 Appendix 1: Detailed Definition of Major HMAs and Local HMAs

Major HMA Settlements Major HMA Settlements Three Towns Ardrossan Ayr Saltcoats Annbank Stevenston Auchincruive West Kilbride Ayr Ardeer Bellsbank Irvine Irvine Burnton Kilwinning Coalhall Auchengate North Craigie Bourtreehill South Crosshill CroyBrae Castlepark Dalmellington Dalrymple Drongan Drumshang Old Dundonald Perceton Dunure Springside Fisherton' Hayhill Hollybush Kilmarnock Kilmarnock sub area Crosshouse Loans Earlston Maybole Gatehead Kilmarnock Monkton Knockentiber Shortlees Old Toll' Northern Area Patna Dunlop Prestwick Fenwick Rankinston Kilmaurs St. Quivox Stair Stewarton Sundrum Symington Irvine Valley Crookedholm Darvel Troon Galston Waterside Hurlford Moscow Newmilns

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Local HMA Settlements Local HMA Settlements North Fairlie Ballantrae Coast Largs Girvan Barr Millport And South Barrhill Town Carrick Colmonell Town Skelmorlie Crosshill Fairlie Culzean Garnock Barrmill Girvan Valley Beith Hersonford Dalry Kirkmichael Gateside Kirkoswald Glengarnock Knockdolian Kilbirnie Laggan Lendalfoot Cumnock? Auchmillan Auchinleck Pinmore Catrine Pinwherry Craigie Cumnock Mauchline Muirkirk Mossgiel

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