RURAL AFFAIRS AND ENVIRONMENT COMMITTEE
RURAL HOUSING INQUIRY
SUBMISSION FROM SOUTH AYRSHIRE COUNCIL
RURAL AREAS – SOUTH AYRSHIRE
DEFINITION OF RURAL AREAS
South Ayrshire has two distinct housing market areas Ayr HMA and Girvan/ South Carrick. Area Profiling Research carried out in 2007 concluded that for the purposes of the area profiling tool the area should be should be sub- divided into 7 sub-areas Ayr, Prestwick, Troon, Maybole, and Rural North Girvan and Rural South. This was considered the most policy-relevant geography for the area-profiling tool to report at and provides a meaningful geography for considering the requirement for interventions concerned with issues such as enhancing ‘connectivity’ between localities and land supply. The sub areas Rural North and Rural South contain these settlements within South Ayrshire of less than 3,000. However some settlements may not meet definition on level of remoteness with reference to travelling times to larger settlements.
Estimated number of households by sub-area and year 2001 2007 change total growth % Ayr 20,966 21,584 618 2.9% Prestwick 7,222 7,416 194 2.7% Troon 7,005 7,267 262 3.7% Maybole 2,896 2,976 79 2.7% Rural North 5,552 6,060 508 9.1% Girvan 3,194 3,322 128 4.0% Rural South 1,968 2,146 177 9.0% South Ayrshire 48,804 50,770 1,966 4.0% Scotland 2,195,033 2,303,440 108,407 4.9%
TENURE PROFILE
Total number of dwellings and tenure share, 2001 and 2007 2001 private LA HA 2007 private LA HA Ayr 22,005 75% 23% 2% 22,732 77% 19% 4% Prestwick 7,318 86% 12% 2% 7,546 89% 9% 2% Troon 7,216 84% 15% 1% 7,525 86% 11% 3% Maybole 3,012 71% 27% 2% 3,105 75% 22% 3% Rural North 5,693 76% 22% 1% 6,291 82% 15% 3% Girvan 3,369 68% 31% 1% 3,520 72% 23% 5% Rural South 2,141 78% 20% 2% 2,350 84% 11% 5% South Ayrshire 50,754 77.5% 21.5% 2% 53,069 80.5% 16% 3.5% Scotland * 2,322,844 71% 23% 6% 2,417,759 74.5% 15% 10.5% Note: * The Scotland dwelling count is at December 2006 whilst the tenure split is at December 2005. These are the latest Scottish Government estimates, which where published in Housing Trends Bulletin (May, 2007). The SHS 2005/6 data suggests 72% of households are in the private sector.
LEVEL OF SECOND HOME/ EMPTY HOMES
Proportion of dwellings used as second homes or long term empty sub-area 2007 total No second % of total dwellings home/ empty) stock Ayr 22,732 181 0.80 Prestwick 7,546 74 0.98 Troon 7,525 101 1.34 Maybole 3,105 42 1.35 Rural North 6,291 17 0.27 Girvan 3,520 88 2.50 Rural South 2,350 98 4.17 South Ayrshire 53,069 601 1.13 source: CTR data, Sept' 2007
Supply trends
Annual Completions between 2002/3 and 2006/7 by local area and developer private RSL/ % nb as nb as public RSL/ % RSL % of privat % of nb as % all publi privat / 2002 e 02 of 02 c e pub total private social lic stock stock stock Ayr 765 531 234 69% 31% 3.5% 3.2% 4.2% Prestwick 159 151 8 95% 5% 2.2% 2.4% 0.8% Troon 172 151 21 88% 12% 2.4% 2.5% 1.7% Maybole 164 141 23 86% 14% 5.4% 6.5% 2.7% Rural North 402 338 64 84% 16% 6.9% 7.7% 4.6% Girvan 86 42 44 49% 51% 2.5% 1.9% 3.9% Rural South 60 49 11 82% 18% 2.7% 2.9% 2.1% South Ayrshire 1,808 1,403 405 78% 22% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 121,80 99,72 22,08 Scotland 9 2 7 82% 18% 5.5% 6% 4%
The Ayrshire Housing Land Supply Audit 2006-2013 (2007) indicates that land has been allocated to support the delivery of 1,790 new homes in the period to 2012/13.
Total established housing land allocation for housing for South Ayrshire Housing Association/ Total Town Private Sector Public 2006/7 2006/7 to Post to Post 2006/7 to Post 2012/13 2013 2012/13 2013 2012/13 2013 Ayr 668 2,873 96 764 2,873 Prestwick 86 48 30 12 116 60 Troon 432 375 24 456 375 Maybole 60 42 24 30 84 72 Rural North 432 77 0 30 432 107 Girvan 62 46 30 92 46 Rural South 50 37 17 10 67 47 South Ayrshire 1,790 3,498 221 82 2,011 3,580
NATURE OF UNMET HOUSING NEED
Private Sector -Affordability Constraints
Since 2005 resale prices in South Ayrshire have pushed ahead of those for Scotland as a whole however there are marked differences in the lower quartile resale price across South Ayrshire.
Resale price quartiles for 2006 by sub-area and relative to the LA price Price relative to Second Hand equivalent LA price 25 50 75 25 50 75 Ayr £114,50 £179,99 £78,199 0.98 0.95 1.00 0 5 Prestwick £100,50 £135,00 £177,37 1.26 1.13 0.99 0 0 5 Troon £130,00 £205,00 £96,000 1.20 1.08 1.14 0 0 Maybole £127,00 £51,250 £96,750 0.64 0.81 0.71 0 Rural North £109,25 £195,00 £75,000 0.94 0.91 1.08 0 0 Girvan £54,150 £71,200 £92,500 0.68 0.59 0.51 Rural South £145,50 £242,50 £85,000 1.06 1.21 1.35 0 0 £120,00 £179,95 1.00 1.00 1.00 South Ayrshire £79,995 0 0 £105,00 £156,00 0.94 0.86 0.87 Scotland £75,000 0 0 sales between £25K and £1 million; sales from Jan to June only
Since 2002, the affordability of house prices for lower income households has deteriorated across five out of the seven local areas. There are signs that entry-level prices are also becoming less affordable for households with income up to the median level in parts of South Ayrshire. Rural South being one of the areas where entry-level prices are most expensive.
Lower quartile resale price to lower quartile and median gross household income ratios lower quartile resale price lower quartile resale price to lower quartile gross to median gross household household income ratio income ratio 2002 2006 2002 2006 Ayr 4.9 5.4 2.6 3.2 Prestwick 4.6 6.1 2.6 3.7 Troon 3.7 6.0 2.0 3.7 Maybole 4.0 3.7 2.2 2.3 Rural North 3.8 4.9 2.2 3.0 Girvan 4.3 4.2 2.4 2.6 Rural South 4.5 6.2 2.6 3.8 South Ayrshire 4.3 5.4 2.4 3.3
Demand for Social Rented Housing
There has been a steady growth in the numbers of applicants relative to the numbers of lettings in the past three years. Annual number of LA housing register live applicants divided by the number of mainstream relets in each sub-area (i.e. social renting pressure ratios) No live applicants to No No non transfer applicants
mainstream relets to non transfer relets 2005/ 2006/ 2004/ 2005/ 2006/ 2004/5 6 7 ave 5 6 7 ave Ayr 4.3 5.5 5.3 5.0 4.3 5.3 5.4 5.0 Prestwick 13.3 14.1 20.4 15.9 17.3 16.8 19.4 17.8 Troon 7.6 6.7 11.2 8.5 8.6 6.8 12.6 9.3 Maybole 2.2 2.9 3.8 3.0 1.8 2.2 3.2 2.4 Rural North 5.2 7.4 6.5 6.4 5.4 8.1 6.8 6.7 Girvan 2.4 2.4 4.0 2.9 2.2 2.0 4.2 2.8 Rural South 4.0 4.9 3.9 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.2 South Ayrshire 4.8 5.8 6.6 5.7 5.0 5.6 6.8 5.8
Affordability of LCHO
Annual number and proportion of households in each sub-area within LCHO price range, based on 51% equity stake 2002 2006 % local % local no households no households Ayr 568 3% 2,492 11% Prestwick 689 10% 1,903 26% Troon 4 0% 1,651 24% Maybole -251 -10% -358 -12% Rural North -239 -5% 565 9% Girvan -299 -9% -317 -10% Rural South -72 -4% 390 18% South Ayrshire 28 0% 7,001 14%
Private Rented Sector 9.8% of the private rented sector in South Ayrshire is in the rural areas.
LEVEL OF HOMELESSNESS
The vast majority of homeless applications made to South Ayrshire Council are from applicants whose last settled address was Ayr. Recorded Homelessness in Rural areas of Ayrshire is relatively low. In a snapshot of live homeless applicants taken May 2007 of the total (221) only 5% (11) were from applicants in the Rural South or Rural North of the area. We currently are unable to provide any estimate of “hidden homelessness” within rural areas. It is believed that many rural homeless households may gravitate towards the larger settlements in seeking accommodation
Contextual Information
Rural North Rural North contains several suburban and commuting settlements as well as more rural localities. It has a very open housing market as evidenced by the continued flow of purchasers from Ayr and increasingly from Prestwick and Troon. The sustained increase in purchasers relocating to Rural North is consistent with the comparatively high rate of new housing completions in the area in recent years and the fact that house prices in the area remain attractive to households willing to move in order to purchase a home of their choice.
There are over 6 applicants for every council let and this rate appears to be increasing. The reason why this is occurring is not immediately apparent but available evidence suggests that a major source of this growth is applicants currently living in Ayr. This suggests that improving the popularity of some estates in Ayr could contribute to dampening expressed demand for social rented housing in Rural North. Nonetheless, the close links between Rural North and Ayr suggest that Rural North would potentially provide a suitable location for the provision of new affordable housing, assuming suitable sites with good access to public transport and other services can be secured.
Rural South With a total household population of just over 2,000, the Rural South area is the least populated area of South Ayrshire. Various indicators point to comparatively high levels of affordability pressure in the Rural South area. In 2006 over two thirds of existing resident households did not have sufficient income to buy a property at the entry level at 2.9 times their gross income. Nonetheless, for reasons that are not clear, increasing affordability constraints in the housing market have not been accompanied by a growth in the rate of expressed demand for social rented housing.
One of the challenges of addressing affordability pressures in the Rural South area is that new housing tends to be more expensive to build and more expensive to buy than a comparable second hand property. Moreover, the numbers of resale properties that are available for purchase are very low. In the period from 2000 to 2006 fewer than 60 resales per annum were recorded on the sasines dataset.
There is also clear evidence of high and sustained demand for housing from long distance movers and other purchasers seeking a second home or holiday home. The impact of the demand for this second and holiday homes on the market as a whole is difficult to gauge. However the fact that the large majority of all purchasers are from outwith the South Ayrshire has probably be one of the factors that has contributed to the high demand and price pressure, especially at the upper end of the of the market.
South Ayrshire Council 4 March 2008