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Falmouth University’s impact on ’s economy

FALMOUTH UNIVERSITY’S IMPACT ON CORNWALL’S ECONOMY JUNE 2016 1 The Exchange, photographed by Matt Jessop. Cover image: the Academy for Innovation & Research (AIR) ©Sanna Fisher-Payne Falmouth University’s impact on Cornwall’s economy

CONTENTS

Executive summary 4

1. Introduction 5

Introduction to economic impact analysis 6

2. Direct impact 7

3. Supply chain impact 8

4. Wage spending impact 10

5. Students’ subsistence spending impact 12

6. Impact from visits of friends and relatives 13

7. Impact from capital expenditure 14

8. Helping start digital high-growth companies 15

9. Conclusion: total impact of Falmouth University 16

10. Glossary 17

3 Falmouth University’s impact on Cornwall’s economy

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Cornwall has among the lowest living standards in Europe. In 2014, GDP per inhabitant in Cornwall and the was just 70 percent of the average for all 28 European Union £58.3 m Member States. It was also below the average for Lithuania, Slovakia, and Slovenia, and just higher than Hungary and Latvia. Economic activity supported by Falmouth University and its students Companies and institutions that contribute positively to in 2014/15. the Cornish economy are vital in helping to raising living standards. Falmouth University is one such institution, making a significant contribution to the county’s economy. This is equivalent to 0.6 percent of the economic output of Cornwall. In 2014/15, Falmouth University supported 1,300 jobs in Cornwall—equivalent to one in every 200 jobs in the county. The University pays its staff an average full-time equivalent wage of £33,600. This is well above the median for full-time workers for people who live in the county of £23,346. It is also above the salary received by 75 percent of full-time staff who 1300 jobs live in Cornwall, at £31,723. The University’s employees are highly embedded in the local Supported by Falmouth University and community. In 2014/15, 95 percent lived in the county, with its students in Cornwall in 2014/15. some 36, 15 and 13 percent living in Falmouth, Penryn and . Staff spending helps support local retail and leisure outlets.

This is equivalent to one in every In total, Falmouth University supported a value added 200 jobs in the local area. contribution of over £58.3 million to the Cornish economy in 2014/15. So £1 in every £155 of economic acitivity in the county was to some degree dependent on the University. Splitting out the University’s contribution from that of its students and visitors to these students, shows that Falmouth University directly and indirectly contributed £42.9 million and that additional students contributed an additional £16.6 million in GDP.

In 2014/15, Falmouth University made a total tax contribution of £17.1 million to the UK Exchequer. This was equivalent to an amount sufficient to pay the salaries of about 720 fire service officers, or 660 nurses in the South West.

4 Falmouth University’s impact on Cornwall’s economy

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1. INTRODUCTION

By one measure (GDP per spreading the benefits of its inputs of goods and services inhabitant), people living in research is recognised in the required to provide the Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly Cornwall and Isles of Scilly University’s services (indirect have very low incomes. In LEP Strategic Economic Plan impacts), and wages paid to 2013, GDP per inhabitant was 2014–2020 which states: staff, some of which are then 70.4 percent of the European “Falmouth, and spent at local providers of Union average.1 It was also Universities and goods and services (induced below the national average specialist research centres, can impacts). for Slovakia (75 percent of transform our R&D, innovation the EU average), and Estonia, and commercialisation In addition to the standard Lithuania and Greece (all 73 performance in key specialist impacts, the analysis also percent). It was the second areas and also address higher looks at Falmouth University’s lowest of any region in the UK, level skills pathways and broader impact on Cornwall’s with only West and The opportunities.”3 economy. These are: the Valleys ranking worse at 67 subsistence spending of percent of the EU average. Another example of how the students the University the University enhances attracts to Cornwall, spending Any institution which the productive potential by friends and family who visit contributes to the county’s of the Cornish economy is these students in Cornwall, economy and is growing its Launchpad programme. the University’s capital rapidly can help improve Employment in the creative expenditure, and the activities Cornish inhabitants’ living sector has been growing in of the five digital spinoff standards. Falmouth University Cornwall, rising by 17 percent companies that Falmouth is one such institution. The over the past five years (2009 University has helped launch. expenditure it undertakes, to 2014). It will be further and that of the students it boosted by the University’s attracts to the county and Launchpad programme, which their visitors, stimulates helped graduates start five economic activity across a digital high-growth companies broad spectrum of industries in 2015. The University in Cornwall. This creates gross hopes to expand this to 32 value added and employment, companies by 2019/20. and generates tax receipts. This report looks at the The University will also expenditure impact that the potentially play a big role in University has on the Cornish Cornwall’s future by enhancing economy. It updates and the supply side of the expands a similar report economy. One way it does that that Economics is to help local firms innovate. undertook in March 2014 for Its academics work with firms Falmouth University and the and other institutions across all .4 As five of the Smart Specialisation before, we explore three areas (namely, digital standard expenditure channels economy, e-health, agri-tech, that all economic impact marine and aerospace/space) studies use: operational to identify new opportunities spending undertaken at the and boost productivity.2 The University’s facilities (direct impact of the University impacts), expenditure on

1 Eurostat, “Regional yearbook 2015”, (2015) 5 2 Department of Business, Innovation & Skills, “Smart specialisation in : Submission to the European Commission”, (2015). 3 Cornwall and Isles of Scilly Local Enterprise Partnership, “Cornwall & Isles of Scilly Strategic Economic Plan 2014 – 2020”, (2014). Quotation from page 5. The definition of the creative industries is the same as used by in the Department for Culture, Media & Sport, “Creative industries economic estimates”, (2016). 4 Oxford Economics, “The economic impact of Falmouth University, the University of Exeter (Cornwall) and Falmouth Exeter Plus”, (2014)

Falmouth University’s impact on Cornwall’s economy

INTRODUCTION TO ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS The study undertakes a A final channel, called The scale of the University’s standard economic impact ‘catalytic’ effects, is also impact for each of the three assessment, looking at three quantified here. It includes channels is measured using forms of expenditure (Fig. 1). the wider benefits of the three metrics: University’s activities, including 1. The first channel of impact the spending that students 1. Gross value added is the is the direct effect. attracted to Cornwall engage contribution an institution This is the economic in, spending by people who or company makes to activity generated by visit the students, capital Gross Domestic Product the University itself, for expenditure by the university, (GDP). It is most simply example by employing and economic activity from viewed as the value of the academic and operational university-initiated spinoff output it produces less the staff and by generating companies. value of inputs used in that economic activity through output’s production. its payment of wages and The indirect and induced 2. Employment is measured generation of surpluses. impacts are calculated using on a full-time equivalent 2. The second channel of multipliers derived from (FTE) basis for direct impact is the indirect regional input-output tables. impacts, and headcount effect, which is the These are developed by basis for other impact employment and activity combining ONS (2014) input- channels. that is supported through output data for the whole UK 3. Tax receipts are generated the University’s local with techniques developed by from income taxes, supply chain, as a result of Flegg, et al. (1995).5 employee and employer its purchases of inputs of national insurance goods and services from Employment and tax estimates contributions and other local suppliers. are calculated using ONS data indirect taxes paid by 3. The third channel, known on labour productivity, average employees (such as VAT). as the induced effect, earnings in each industrial captures the economic sector and tax allowances activity supported by its rates for 2014/15.6 staff, and those employed in its direct supply chain, spending their wages on Fig. 1. Channels of economic impact goods and services in the local economy.

6 5 Flegg, “Regional Size, Regional Specialization, and the FLQ Formula”, Regional Studies, 34.6 (2000): 563-9 6 Office for National Statistics, “UK input-output analytical tables,” 2014. Falmouth University’s impact on Cornwall’s economy

2. DIRECT IMPACT

Falmouth University has goods and services worth £18.8 In addition, based on Falmouth a substantial impact on million. The difference between University’s employment, Cornwall’s economy. This the two, £34.7 million, is the Oxford Economics estimates section of the report gross value added contribution that the university, its share estimates the magnitude of to GDP that Falmouth of FX Plus, and its employees the university’s employment, University and Falmouth’s share paid £6.9 million in national gross value added, and tax of FX Plus created in Cornwall insurance contributions and contributions through the in 2014/15. That is 0.4 percent income tax.8 channels outlined in Fig. 1. of all gross value added created in Cornwall in 2014. In the 2014/15 academic year, Falmouth University and Fig. 2. People employed by Falmouth University, 2014/15 Falmouth’s share of FX Plus Jobs hired 1,730 people across the skills spectrum (Fig. 2).

Because of the large number of part-time, casual, and one-off people Falmouth Full-time University employs, this report 588 assesses the university’s direct employment impact in full-time Part-time 873 equivalent terms. Based on Falmouth University’s annual accounts, and those of FX Plus, Oxford Economics estimates Flexible Hours / that Falmouth University Casual directly employed 607 people 269 in Cornwall on a full-time 7 equivalent basis in 2014/15. Source: Falmouth University Source: Falmouth University Falmouth University and Falmouth’s share of FX Fig. 3. GVA created by Falmouth University in Cornwall, 2014/15 Plus earned £53.4 million in revenue in 2014/15 (Fig. 3). £ millions That revenue included tuition 60 fees and education contracts, Falmouth’s share of income 50 from its joint venture (FX 18.8 Plus), and funding council 40 and research grants.8 During the same time period, the 30 university bought inputs of 53.4 20 34.7

10

Source: Falmouth University 0 Revenue Bought-in costs Gross value added

7 That includes Falmouth University’s employees and 69 percent of FX Plus employees, which is equal to the student split between Falmouth University and 7 the University of Exeter (Cornwall). According to official annual financial statements, Falmouth University employed an average of 429 full-time equivalents in 2014/15, while FX Plus employed an average of 308 full-time equivalents. Falmouth University’s share is thus 429+308*69% = 642. KPMG LLP, “Falmouth University: Consolidated financial statements, year ended 31 July 2015,” 2015 and KPMG LLP, “Falmouth Exeter Plus: Consolidated Financial Statements for the Year to 31 July 2015,” 2015. Based on anonymised postcode data provided by Falmouth University, an estimated 95 percent of the 642 full-time equivalent employees (which is 607) lived in Cornwall in 2014/15. Falmouth University’s impact on Cornwall’s economy

3. SUPPLY CHAIN IMPACT

During the 2014/15 academic percent with local fitters and reached nearly every corner of year, Falmouth University builders, and 11 percent on real Cornwall. Fig. 6 illustrates the spent £18.8 million on inputs of estate services organisations relative magnitude of the spend goods and services from UK (for example, social landlords). by postcode and whether suppliers. Based on postcode the expenditure was by the data supplied by Falmouth In 2014/15, as Fig. 5 shows, University itself or FX Plus. University, Oxford Economics nearly 60 percent of the total estimates that £5.4 million procurement spend fell within Beyond the initial recipients, of that amount was spent in ten Cornish wards: Falmouth this spending created ripples Cornwall. (13 percent of of economic activity as local the total); Carn Brea South businesses went on to purchase This spending supported a and Mabe (8 percent each); goods and services from their wide range of local businesses, Central and Penryn suppliers, and so on. Using including architects, print West (5 percent each); our bespoke input-output shops, caterers, social Truro Boscawen, Falmouth model for Cornwall to quantify landlords, car hire outlets, Trescobeas, , and these ripple effects, Oxford plumbers and electrical fitters, (4 percent each); and Economics estimates that builders, photography studios, Falmouth Gyllyngvase and Falmouth University’s spending and computer equipment North (3 percent each). on suppliers located in the retailers. Categorising spend county supported a £2.8 million into 17 broad categories, The largest spend categories gross value added contribution Fig. 4 shows that Falmouth were for a caterer, a social to Cornwall’s GDP, 98 jobs, and University’s procurement housing organisation, and a £1 million in tax receipts for the stimulated activity across a building and engineering firm. Exchequer in 2014/15.8 wide range of businesses in The remaining 40 percent Cornwall. Around 15 percent of of Falmouth University’s the total was spent with local procurement expenditure retail and wholesale outlets, 12 was widely dispersed, and

Fig. 4. Falmouth University’s spending with Cornwall suppliers, 2014/15

£ 000s 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 IT Utilities Finance Education Agriculture Real estate Real Government Construction Manufacturing Other services Other Transportation Health services Food hotels and Food Back office support Retail and wholesale and Retail Professional services Professional Arts and entertainment Source: Falmouth University, Oxford Economics Oxford University, Falmouth Source:

8 8 FX Plus earns income from activities other than providing services to Falmouth University and the University of Exeter (Cornwall), including hosting exhibitions and renting accommodation outside of term-time. 9This is likely a slight overestimate because some of the university’s casual and one-off employees may not have earned enough to pay tax. Tax rates and thresholds were sourced from HM Revenue and Customs, “Main features of national insurance contributions,” 1990-2017 and HM Revenue and Customs, “Rates of Income Tax (tax year 1990 to 1991, to tax year 2016 to 2017),” 1990-2017. Falmouth University’s impact on Cornwall’s economy

Fig. 5. Falmouth and FX Plus procurement by ward in Cornwall, 2014/15

Falmouth Arwenack Carn Brea South Mabe Camborne Central Penryn West Truro Boscawen Falmouth Trescobeas Chacewater and Kenwyn Falmouth Gyllyngvase Redruth North

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 £ 000s

Source: Falmouth University

Fig. 6. Falmouth University’s procurement expenditure in Cornwall, 2014/15

Source: Falmouth University

9 Falmouth University’s impact on Cornwall’s economy

4. WAGE SPENDING IMPACT

When Falmouth University University in Cornwall. That is and FX Plus pay their staff more than 40 percent higher wages, recipients will spend than the median gross annual some or all of their disposable pay for full-time workers income with local restaurants, who live in Cornwall, which pubs, retailers, and housing is important in the context providers. These impacts will of raising living standards in occur primarily where staff the county. As stated earlier, live: Falmouth (where 38 Eurostat data show that living percent of Cornwall staff live), standards, as measured by Penryn (16 percent), Truro (13 GDP per inhabitant, are just 70 percent), (8 percent), percent of the EU 28 average, and Redruth (8 percent) as lower than Lithuania, Slovakia, shown in Fig. 7.10 and Slovenia, and just higher than Hungary and Latvia.11 Falmouth University and Falmouth’s share of FX Plus Oxford Economics estimates paid £22 million to their staff in that in 2014/15, Falmouth wages and salaries in 2014/15. University’s and FX Plus’s Of that amount, based on wage payments to their anonymised postcode data of employees supported a £5.4 where staff live, we estimate million gross value added that £20.4 million was paid contribution to Cornwall’s GDP, to staff living in Cornwall, 156 jobs in the local economy, or £33,600, on average, per and £1.7 million in tax receipts full-time equivalent person for the Exchequer. employed by Falmouth

Fig. 7. Falmouth and FX Plus staff location by town, 2014/15

Percent of total employment 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Truro Source: Falmouth University Other Penryn Helston Redruth Falmouth St. Austell Camborne

10 10 Spending is assumed to take place where workers live. This may not always be the case, partly because of the rise of online shopping. Online shopping accounted for 11.2% of all retail expenditure in 2014 (ONS, 2015, ‘Overview of Internet retail sales in 2014’). 11 Eurostat, “Regional Yearbook 2015,” 2015 Falmouth University’s impact on Cornwall’s economy

Fig. 8. The annual average pay of people who work full-time and live in Cornwall compared to those who work at Falmouth University, 2014/15

£ a year 40,000 33,600 35,000 31,723 30,000

25,000 23,346

20,000 17,198 15,000

10,000

5,000

0 25th percentile Median 75th percentile Falmouth University Source: ONS ONS (2015) (2015) and Falmouth and University Falmouth University

11 Falmouth University’s impact on Cornwall’s economy

5. STUDENTS’ SUBSISTENCE SPENDING IMPACT Falmouth University attracts Fig. 9. Location from which 2014/15 students applied to a wide range of students to Falmouth University Cornwall, many of whom come from elsewhere in the UK or Number of students another country. Of Falmouth’s 1,200 4,339 students (including 1,000 undergraduates, graduates, 800 research, and foundation 600 students), an analysis of Falmouth’s postcode database 400 shows that 3,316 of these 200 students applied from outside 0 Cornwall and 404 of these students applied from outside Wales the UK (Fig. 9). These students Overseas NorthEast SouthEast NorthWest are deemed ‘additional’ to Humber East Midlands East West Midlands West East of of England East Northern Northern Cornwall—if they had chosen Union European Yorkshire The and a university elsewhere, the West South of Rest assumption is that they would Source: Falmouth University not be in Cornwall spending money with local retailers, housing providers, and entertainment venues.

Their annual spend can be considerable. Fig. 10 shows Fig. 10. Average living costs for students in England, 2014/15 the average living costs for £ per year students in England in 2014/15, Full-time Part-time students including housing (£3,200 for 4,500 4,000 full-time students and £4,200 3,500 for part-time students), food 3,000 (£2,000 for full-time; £3,600 2,500 for part-time), and personal 2,000 items like clothing (£1,900 full- 1,500 12 time, £2,600 part-time). 1,000 500 Based on research by the 0 Department for Business, Innovation, and Skills on what Food students spend their money on, Entertainment Oxford Economics estimates Housing costs Personal items Non-course travel Household goodsOther living costs that this additional expenditure Source: Department for Business, Innovation and Skills (2013) in 2014/15 supported a £15.8 million gross value added contribution to Cornwall’s economy, 390 jobs, and £4.8 million in tax receipts for the Exchequer.

12 12 Living costs tend to be higher for part-time students because the latter often pair their studies with careers. Falmouth University’s impact on Cornwall’s economy 6. IMPACT FROM VISITS OF FRIENDS AND RELATIVES

Students living in Cornwall are likely to attract visits from friends and relatives, who will spend money on food, hotels, transportation, and retailers during their stays in Cornwall. Similar to the analysis of students’ subsistence spending above, our analysis counts only the ‘additional’ visits—the ones that occur to students who applied to Falmouth University from outside Cornwall, and therefore would be unlikely to occur if those students had chosen a university elsewhere.

To be conservative, Oxford Economics assumes that each student receives one visit. Expenditure per visitor, and in the case of international students, expenditure attracted by international students, are sourced from Visit Cornwall and the Office for National Statistics’ International Passenger Survey and the latest UK census.13

Oxford Economics estimates that in 2014/15 these visits supported a £780,000 gross value added contribution to Cornwall’s GDP, 40 jobs, and £270,000 in tax receipts for the Exchequer.

13Visit Cornwall, “Value of Tourism 2011: Cornwall,” 2011, Office for National Statistics, “UK Census,” 2011, and Office for National Statistics, 13 “International Passenger Survey,” 2012 Falmouth University’s impact on Cornwall’s economy 7. IMPACT FROM CAPITAL EXPENDITURE

Falmouth University and FX Plus spend money to keep buildings and facilities up-to-date. To do so they purchase materials, services, and equipment from local suppliers, including local builders and suppliers of advanced electronic equipment.

Falmouth University and its share of FX Plus engaged in £2 million in capital expenditure in 2014/15. An estimated 37 percent of the total, or £740 million was spent in Cornwall. Oxford Economics estimates that this spending supported a £350,000 gross value added contribution to Cornwall’s GDP, 6 jobs in the local economy, and £90,000 in tax receipts for the Exchequer.

14 Falmouth University’s impact on Cornwall’s economy

8. HELPING START DIGITAL HIGH-GROWTH COMPANIES Falmouth University may also suggests that the companies make a lasting impact on could directly generate a Cornwall’s economy through £825,000 gross value added its one-year programme contribution to Cornwall’s (which is now complete) GDP and employ 12 people by that helped graduates 2015/16. It forecasts a nearly launch fast-growing digital £2 million gross value added games companies. The contribution to Cornwall’s programme, called Falmouth GDP from these start-ups, Launchpad 2015, supplied and suggests that they could entrepreneurship training employ 29 people by 2018/19. to graduates, contacts in the digital games industry, Falmouth University has plans and a stipend of £16,000 to to expand the Launchpad participants. programme. If the programme’s expansion proceeds according According to a February to plan, the University will help 2016 assessment of the launch 32 companies, each with Launchpad programme, a four or more employees, by conservative estimate is that 2019/20. The University expects five out of six companies to receive £2 million per year launched will go on to be in dividend income from these viable companies.14 If that ventures from 2020/21 and outlook is realised, the report beyond.

Fig. 11. Falmouth University’s projected gross value added and employment in digital high-growth spinoff companies, 2015/16 to 2018/19

Gross value added (£ millions) Employment (headcount) 2.5 35 Gross value added (left axis) 30 2.0 Employment (right axis) Millions 25

1.5 20

1.0 15 10 0.5 5

0.0 0 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Source: Falmouth University’s projections Source: Falmouth University's projections

14Amion Consulting, “Evaluation of Launchpad: A Report,” 2016. 15 Falmouth University’s impact on Cornwall’s economy

9. CONCLUSION: TOTAL IMPACT OF FALMOUTH UNIVERSITY Falmouth University made total), and £17.1 million in tax a sizeable contribution to receipts in 2014/15. Those tax economic activity in Cornwall receipts were equivalent to the in 2014/15. Including direct wages and salaries of 720 fire impacts, supply chain service officers or 660 nurses impacts, impacts from wage in the South West.15 payments, student subsistence spending, visitor spending, Falmouth University’s the university’s capital expectations for growth in spending, and the University’s student numbers and the size digital high-growth spinoff of its operations suggest that companies, Oxford Economics the organisation is likely to estimates that Falmouth continue to support Cornwall’s University supported a £58.3 economy for years to come. million gross value added This support will be vital as contribution to Cornwall’s Cornwall seeks economic economy (0.6 percent of growth to improve living Cornwall’s total), 1,300 local standards for the people who jobs (0.5 percent of Cornwall’s live in the county.

Fig. 12. Falmouth University’s total economic impact on Cornwall’s economy in 2014/15

16 15 , “Cornwall Council 2014/15 Annual Financial Report and Statement of Accounts,” 2015 Falmouth University’s impact on Cornwall’s economy

10. GLOSSARY

The following terms are used throughout this report:

Currency values: All currency values are quoted in current prices.

Falmouth Exeter Plus: Falmouth Exeter Plus, or FX Plus, is a joint venture between Falmouth University (50 percent ownership) and the University of Exeter Cornwall (50 percent ownership). FX Plus delivers services to staff and students at both universities.

Falmouth’s share of FX Plus: Falmouth University’s share/ responsibility for FX Plus’ revenues and costs varies from 50 percent to 69 percent depending on the particular line item; the variation is due to the allocation of FX Plus’ efforts to each organisation, which was provided for this report by Falmouth University. The share can be as high as 69 percent because Falmouth University has 69 percent of the combined number of students attending Falmouth University and University of Exeter Cornwall.

Full-time equivalent employment: One full-time equivalent job could be one person working full time for a year, two people working half a working year, 100 people working 100th of a year, and so on. We use this measure to quantify direct employment impacts because Falmouth University hires many casual and one- off employees that, individually, are just a fraction of a full-time equivalent employee; summing to full-time equivalent employees gives the most accurate picture of the university’s direct employment footprint.

Gross domestic product (GDP): The value of all goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a year. It is the sum of gross value added of all organisations within the economy (with adjustments for taxes and subsidies). Gross domestic product is the most commonly cited indicator of the UK economy’s health and is frequently used to gauge when the economy has entered or exited a recession.

Gross value added: At the level of a single organisation, like Falmouth University, this is the difference between total revenue and the cost of the goods and services that are used up to create that revenue. Gross value added across all organisations in an economy is equal to gross domestic product (after adjustments for taxes and subsidies).

17 Falmouth University’s impact on Cornwall’s economy

OXFORD ECONOMICS

Oxford Economics was founded web analytics. Underpinning To discuss the report further in 1981 as a commercial venture our in-house expertise is a please contact: with Oxford University’s contributor network of over business college to provide 500 economists, analysts and Andy Logan, Associate Director, economic forecasting and journalists around the world. Economic Consulting: modelling to UK companies and financial institutions Oxford Economics is a key [email protected] expanding abroad. Since then, adviser to corporate, financial we have become one of the and government decision- Oxford Economics world’s foremost independent makers and thought leaders. Broadwall House, 21 Broadwall, global advisory firms, providing Our worldwide client base London, SE1 9PL, UK reports, forecasts and analytical now comprises over 1,000 Tel: +44 207 803 1400 tools on 200 countries, 100 international organisations, industrial sectors and over 3,000 including leading multinational cities. Our best-of-class global companies and financial economic and industry models institutions; key government and analytical tools give us an bodies and trade associations; unparalleled ability to forecast and top universities, external market trends and consultancies, and think tanks. assess their economic, social and business impact. June 2016 All data in tables and charts Headquartered in Oxford, and other information in this England, with regional centres report are copyright © Oxford in London, New , and Economics Ltd except where Singapore, Oxford Economics otherwise stated and cited in has offices across the globe footnotes. in , Chicago, Dubai, Frankfurt, , Mexico This report is confidential to City, Miami, Milan, Paarl, Paris, Falmouth University and may Philadelphia, San Francisco, not be published or distributed Sydney and Tokyo. We without their prior written employ over 200 full-time permission. people, including more than 150 professional economists, The modelling and results industry experts and business presented here are based editors—one of the largest on information provided by teams of macroeconomists and third parties, upon which thought leadership specialists. Oxford Economics has relied Our global team is highly skilled in producing its report and in a full range of research forecasts in good faith. techniques and thought Any subsequent revision or leadership capabilities, from update of those data will econometric modelling, scenario affect the assessments and framing, and economic impact projections shown. analysis to market surveys, case studies, expert panels, and

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The Exchange, photographed by Artur Tixiliski courtesy of The Cartel Falmouth University’s impact on Cornwall’s economy

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