INEGMA Special Report No. 19 Strategic Balancing and Power Play in the North Caucasus - International Implications of the Rise of Chechnya Under Kadyrov
Matthew Hedges, Analyst and Project Manager, INEGMA
May 2013 Copyright © INEGMA 2013
Any party interested in quo ng this study or reproducing it in any form or by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, informa on storage and retrieval) may do so on the condi on of providing full a ribu on to the author and to INEGMA. Reprints are available on request.
The views expressed in this Special Report are solely those of the authors and do not reflect the official views of INEGMA or any government.
INEGMA is a strategy and security consultancy, research house, and leading conference organizer in defense, security, and risk areas, headquartered in Dubai and with offices in Washington D.C. and Beirut. We bring together the reach of a strong international network with specialist expertise and proven competence across a spectrum of advisory areas including political security, risk mitigation, strategic communication and defense trade. B@%B)13' %5%7'371 %7( 8E)@ 5%F 37 B2) 8@B2 %C'%ACA I 7B)@7%B387%5 6953'%B387A 80 B2) 3A) 80 2)'27F% "7()@ %(F@8D 7B@8(C'B387 ! " # $ % &' & ( ) ! ! * + ! " # &'',-&'& ./ # ./0' # 1 ) ( 2 # 1 ! " 3 ( # !2) "D85CB387 80 2)'27F% 3 4 5$ + 4 6 ! 3 * 7 # 3 8 $ 5 8 2 6 ! 3 ! - 7 ( 5 9 ! 6 $ 7 5$ * 6 : - % , ; ! 2 7 1 $$ < % ! - # % =77! * ;;> < / ;;? < ! =77! ( 7 < &? ;;; ! $ * %-
( &'''! - $ < ? &''; ! @
%(F@8D )136) + ! " # < # ( + < # ! - 5 6 < # + ! $ 7 <%4 *" * < # 7 < # #31C@) U I #8@6)@ ! 2)'2)7 @)A3()7B %426)( %(F@8D $ ! " # ! A + < # + 8 0 &''/ ( @ 4" < # ( 56 B B < # " + - $ < # ( ; &''> 7 A * <
! " # ! ! * 1 ! " # 1 ) + #31C@) V I 2)'2)7 @)A3()7B %6G%7 7 7 < 1 %(F@8D ! " # * +( $ * &''0 +( 7< # +( $ + + + <<
& +( # # <
+ + # 5 6 $ + + ! " # ! " # 1 5 6 $ B # # 4"
2 # %6G%7 %(F@8DPA 8E)@ *@%& % + ( ! # ! ( $ < 5(A*6 ! ! # (A* ( 4" ( (A* % 7 75%76 # 1 4" -# %77 < < + 9 4 ! < ( $ # 1 @ ( # 1 $ $ $ ! % $ C * # - ! ( 3 # 1 @ - # % + < #
/ $ B ! " # ! D ''' + + 1 # 3 #31C@) W I # B # )( 1 # ! % 4 A 4 ! <7
* A + 1 ! + " # 3 # $ + E - E ! + 2 3 % * < #
# 1 3 ( ! # 1 #
(A* %7 3 # 1 9 4 < 4 % * $ ( &'& #31C@) X I %5)4A%7()@ 25898737 ( # (A* %7 " # #
" ! + # # (
> 3((5) "%AB)@7 7D)AB6)7B 37 2)'27F% ( 1 ( # # ! " # ( " ( 2
# 1 B < 4 $ 1 B 4 ! #
#31C@) Y I 8()@7 2%F *@8G7F 4 7 ( 2 1 ( 2 ! 1 7
"73B)( %@%& "63@%B)A R"%"S 8 4 546 =<2 -=<2 &'' + ! " # )) 4 7 ( F 3 + < * #31C@) ` Q @)A3()7B %(F@8D %7( 2)342 %2F%7 * 7 %5 %2F%7 =<2< % $ &' 7 3 ( -3 ( ) 2 7 ! 7 F 7 3 ) : (" # + ( 5+=)6 =<2 < &'& =<2 # # =<2 G H
0 # 2 * )) 7 ( ! ( +( =<2 ! * * &'/ # ( #31C@) a I %(F@8D %B B2) VTUW 2C&%3 #8@5( C9
$ &'+ # @ =<2 =<2 < 4" # D B B ?,,; 5.&/0 6 $ =<2 ! 4 ! 4 1
! " # + < * )) 4 7 ( F 3 < &'/5 * 6 < * $ # 1 =<2 ! 5 #31C@) b I 99 *)7)@%5 2)342 82%66)( ; 37 $%F)( %5 %2F%7 %7( %6G%7 %(F@8D A 7 6 F 7 7 -) 7 $ < &'/ =<2
# =<2 5 # 1 $ 6 # <-) 7 F -3 3
#31C@) c I @)A3()7B %(F@8D E3B2 ABC()7BA 8CBA3() B2) 9H9H 2)342 $%F)( &37 C5B%7 %5 %2F%7 )7B@) 08@ B2) 985F C@P%7 !)%'2371 %7( )68@3G%B387
? %C(3 %@%&3% # 7 < $ 3 7 < % $ -# 3 $ &'! 7 -: $ &''; 4" < ! $ 7 < =<2 # "
# #31C@) UT I &7 %5I2%BB%& I 1 $ 7 < < 5 7 < # # 7 < #
#31C@) UU I @)A3()7B %(F@8D %B )''% %7( 7 @37') 2%5)( %5I#%3A%5 &''D # < 7 # 7 ( 7 (" ( $ # $ ! % (
* # 1 7 < &''D # 7 ! + A + F 7 # 1
+ $ F 7 7 ! % # 7 = ! 3 # 1 #31C@) UV Q371 %&(C55%2 &37 %C( %7( %6G%7 %(F@8D RH $3F%( %&A%&3 &)237( %(F@8DS
D 7 < $ # 1 # < ( B
8@(%7 %7( )&%787 $ # ( 2 - J J # $ J J 4 #31C@) UW I %6G%7 %(F@8D %7( 371 $ * 54$*6 J %&(C55%2 80 8@(%7 < % 5 7 8 % 6 J ! # 1 J &' J
< + $ < D &'/ # # < 1 <- 7 ( -9 # # < <
% &''? 9 )" $ ! 9 ! 5! 6 ( " -! B $
$ # # ( 2 ! ( % < # ! 1
7D)AB6)7B 998@BC73B3)A 37 B2) "7)@1F )'B8@ ( 2 < 4
3 B ! 2 ( 2 $ 7 +B # " 7 $
, <" B 2 3 ! ! 7 ! 1 ! ! # - # ! ! + * +( $7 + $! ! ( <" B - <" B @ $ 3 * <" B ( <" " % + 5%+ ! $ 6 < ( % <" B + + # <" B + $ <# <" B 3 0 &'& + < <" B ! 3 <" B 1 7 8 578 8
; 75?>' 7 4" 6 ! + + &'>8 4 $ &'& ! %7 &'> 8 3 # 1 3 ! ! ( 2 8 # <" B $ ) + 3 ! &'> 8 ( 1 # $ &'> 7 # 1 $ B # $ ! 1 ! # 1 ( 4" # - $ ! - "# # 1 $ ! @ 87'5CA387 8 # @ ! * # # # 4 9 ) # ! 41 5: # 6 B $ ! % # 3 ! # ( 1 ! " # " 4 + + -
'
Any party interested in quoting this study or reproducing it in any form or by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, information storage and retrieval) may do so on the condition of providing full attribution to the author and to INEGMA. Reprints are available on request.
All Copyrights Reserved.
www.inegma.com Special Report No. 1: Radiological Dispersal Devices (RDDs): Terrorism in the GCC and MENA? (September 2009) Dr. Theodore Karasik, Director, R&D & Ms. Ayat Toufeeq, Research Associate, INEGMA
Special Report No. 2: Proliferation Assessment of Ballistic Missiles in the Middle East (November 2009) General (Ret.) Khaled Al Bu-Ainnain, Former Commander, UAE Air Force & Air Defense and President, INEGMA
Special Report No. 3: Proliferation Assessment of Cruise Missiles in the Middle East (December 2009) General (Ret.) Khaled Al Bu-Ainnain, Former Commander, UAE Air Force & Air Defense and President, INEGMA Dubai Office (Headquarters): Office 205, Loft Office 3, Special Report No. 4: Iranian Mining of the Strait of Hormuz - Plausibility and Key Dubai Media City, Dubai, UAE Considerations (January 2010) P.O. Box: 502066 Sabahat Khan, Analyst, INEGMA Tel: +971 (0)4 390 2160 Fax: +971 (0)4 390 8013 Special Report No. 5: A Vision for Transforming UAE Armed Forces into Network Centric Operations (February 2010) General (Ret.) Khaled Al Bu-Ainnain, Former Commander, UAE Air Force & Air Defense and Washington, D.C. Office: President, INEGMA 1111 19th St., NW, Washington, DC, 20036 Special Report No. 6: GCC Interoperability and Coalition Operations United States of America (April 2010) Tel : +1 202 222 0418 Riad Kahwaji, CEO, INEGMA & Dr. Theodore Karasik, Director, R&D, INEGMA Fax : +1 202 238 9604
Special Report No. 7: Evolving Terrorist Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures (TTP) Migration Across South Asia, Caucasus, and the Middle East Beirut Office: (May 2010) 6th Floor Markaziya Building, Matthew Hedges, Research Assistant & Dr. Theodore Karasik, Director, R&D, INEGMA Downtown, Beirut, Lebanon P.O. Box: 11-132 Special Report No. 8: Summary Proceedings of “Examination on Yemen’s Current Status Tel: +961 (0)1 974 530 and Implications for the Region” (June 2010) Fax: +961 (0)1 974 531 Dr. Theodore Karasik, Director, R&D & Sabahat Khan, Analyst, INEGMA Special Report No. 9: Emerging Architectures in Early Warning Networks and their Airborne Components (July 2010) Sabahat Khan, Analyst, INEGMA Special Report No. 10: Lebanon's Defense Policy: Challenges & Possible Solutions (August 2010) Riad Kahwaji, CEO, INEGMA Special Report No. 11: Conduits to Terror - Classifying the Methods of Jihadist and Middle Eastern Terrorist Recruitment (November 2010) Amira Choueiki, Intern, Georgia Institute of Technology Dr. Theodore Karasik, Director of R&D, INEGMA Special Report No. 12: A Western View on Iran’s WMD Goal: Nuclearizing the Eschaton, or Pre-Stocking the Mahdi’s Arsenal? (January 2011) Dr. Timothy R. Furnish, Non-Resident Scholar, INEGMA Special Report No. 13: States vs. Non-State Actors: Asymmetric Conflict of the 21st Century and Challenges to Military Transformation (March 2011) Jahangir Arasli, Non-Resident Scholar, INEGMA Special Report No. 14: Post-Mubarak Egypt: Redefining its Role in the New Middle Eastern Balance of Power (April 2011) María Celeste Baranda, Non-Resident Analyst, INEGMA Special Report No. 15: Women in Gulf Security Forces (July 2011) Naimah al-Dafaa, INEGMA Summer 2011 Intern Dr. Theodore Karasik, Director, Research & Development, INEGMA Special Report No. 16: An Arms Buyback for Libya? (June 2012) Anirudh Sivaram, INEGMA Summer Intern 2012 Dr. Theodore Karasik, Director, Research & Consultancy, INEGMA Special Report No. 17: Implications of A Survivable and Opaque Iranian Nuclear Program (July 2012) Sabahat Khan, Senior Analyst, INEGMA Special Report No. 18: The Last Warning: Iran on the Precipice of Nuclear Breakout General (Ret.) Khalid Abdullah Al Bu-Ainnain, President, INEGMA Special Report No. 19: Strategic Balancing and Power Play in the North Caucasus - International Implications of the Rise of Chechnya Under Kadyrov (May 2013) Matthew Hedges, Analyst and Project Manager, INEGMA
Publications by INEGMA are available at www.inegma.com
INEGMA is a strategy and security consultancy, research house, and leading conference organizer in defense, security, and risk areas, headquartered in Dubai and with offices in Washington D.C. and Beirut. We bring together the reach of a strong international network with specialist expertise and proven competence across a spectrum of advisory areas including political security, risk mitigation, strategic communication and defense trade.