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Talibanization in Pakistan and Its Impact on the National Security

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Talibanization in Pakistan and its Impact on the National Security Ph.D Thesis By AYESHA SHAHID Department of International Relations University of Peshawar (Session 2006-2007) Dedication I dedicate this study to my husband Umair Ahmad, my children M. Aimal Khan, M. Fahad Khan and my parents Shahid Pervez (late) and Nuzhat Shahid (late) for their unvarying moral support, and encouragement, without which I could never have been able to accomplish this milestone. DECLARATION I hereby declare that this dissertation is the outcome of my individual research and it has not been submitted to any other university for the grant of a degree. Ayesha Shahid Table of Contents Acknowledgements i Acronyms ii Glossary viii Abstract xi Chapter 1 Introduction 1.1 Talibanization 3 1.2 Statement of the Problem 7 1.3. Objectives of the Study 8 1.4. Significance of the Study 9 1.5. Literature Review 10 1.6. Hypothesis 25 1.6.1. Research Questions 25 1.6.2. Primary Research Question 25 1.6.3. Secondary Research Questions 26 1.7. Methodology 26 1.8. Division of the Study 27 References 29 Chapter 2 Conceptual Framework 32 2.1. Talibanization 32 2.2.1. Conceptual Model of Insurgence Assessment 35 2.2.2. Inputs 36 2.2.3. Conversion 36 2.2.4. Outputs 37 2.2.5. Authority 37 2.2.6. Pump 37 2.3. Pakistan’s National Security 38 References 45 Chapter 3 Taliban & Afghanistan Landscape 46 3.1. History 47 3.2. Removal of the Time-Honored Societal Structure: PDPA Rule and Soviet Occupation, 1978-89. 50 3.2.1. Jamiat-i-Islami 55 3.2.2. Hizb-e-Islami 55 3.2.3. Ittehad-e-Islami 56 3.2.4. Jebh-e-Milli Nejat-e-Afghanistan (National Liberation Front) 57 3.2.5. Mahaz-e-Milli 57 3.2.6. Hizb-e-Wahdat 58 3.2.7. Junbash-e-Milli 58 3.3. The Mujahideen & Warlords 59 3.3.1. Jalaludin Haqqani; One of the Most Influential Warlords 61 3.3.2. Leadership of Haqqani Network. 62 3.3.3. Rasool Sayyaf 63 3.3.4. Younis Khalis 64 3.4. Genesis of (Afghan) Taliban in Afghanistan 65 3.5. Emergence of Taliban 66 3.6. Taliban Ideology 69 3.7. Reasons for Taliban’s Failure 72 3.8. September 11, 2001 75 3.9. Post September 11 Developments 77 3.10. US Invasion & the Ouster of Taliban 77 3.11. The Bush Doctrine 78 3.12. Taliban on the Run 79 3.13. Haqqani Network's Migration to Pakistan 80 3.14. Conclusion 81 References 82 Chapter 4 Rise of Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan 87 4.1. Introduction to the FATA Landscape 88 4.2. Dimensions of the Conflict/Background 92 4.3. Insurgency 96 4.4. Rise of Insurgency in FATA 97 4.5. Origin of the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) 100 4.6. Role of Taliban (Youth) in Radicalization 102 4.7. Differences of the TTP with the Afghan Taliban 105 4.8. TTP Ideology 106 4.9. Organization of TTP Shura. 108 4.10. Leadership 111 4.10.1. Nek Muhammad Wazir. 111 4.10.2. Baitullah Mehsud (18 June 2004- 5 Aug 2009). 112 4.10.3. Hakimullah Mehsud (August 5, 2009 - November 1, 2013) 112 4.10.4. Mullah Fazlullah (November 7, 2013- To Date). 113 4.11. Funding sources for TTP /FATA's Warlord Administrations 113 4.12. Ingress in Armed Forces / Other Institutions. 125 4.13. Al- Qaeda/Insurgency / Support to TTP. 128 4.14. Conclusion 129 References 130 Chapter 5 Talibanization in Pakistan 135 5.1. Talibanization in Pakistan 136 5.2. Sectarianism 142 5.3. Rise of Militancy of TTP and its Impact 143 5.4. Military Operations in FATA Al-Mizan 149 5.4.1. Bajaur Agency 150 5.4.2. Mohmand Agency 151 5.4.3. Khyber Agency 151 5.4.4. Kurram Agency 152 5.4.5. Orakzai Agency 152 5.4.6. North Waziristan Agency 153 5.4.7. South Waziristan Agency 154 5.5. Defensive Jihad 155 5.6. Kashmiri Jihad 156 5.7 Conclusion 157 References 158 Chapter 6 Socio-Economic Impact of Talibanization 162 6.1. Social Impact of Insurgency 163 6.2. Delineation of the Socio-Economic Environment of KP and FATA & Its Implications 167 6.2.1. Attacks Conducted in Pakistan 174 6.2.2. Financial Impact of Terrorism on Pakistan, KPK and FATA 177 6.3. Manufacturing Sector 180 6.4. Immediate and Tortuous Cost of Terrorism 180 6.5. Impact on Tourism 183 6.6. Impact on Education 184 6.7. Human Cost 185 6.8. The Power Shift in Pakistani Society 186 6.9. Jihad as a Tool against Exploitation 190 6.10. State of the war Economy 191 6.11. Conclusion 193 References 195 Chapter 7 Security Threats from Radical Groups and National Responses 200 7.1. Introduction 201 7.2. Sovereignty Crisis 201 7.3. US Drone Attacks in Afghanistan and Pakistan 203 7.4. Dynamics of Pakistan’s National Security 205 7.5. The Jihadi Terrain in Pakistan 216 7.5.1. Lashkar-e-Tayyeba (LeT) 216 7.5.2. Towards Jaish-e-Mohammed 216 7.5.3. Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) 217 7.5.4. Hizb-ul-Mujahideen (HM) 217 7.5.5. Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HuM) 218 7.5.6. Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) 218 7.5.7. Jamaat-ul-Furqan 219 7.5.8. Sipah-e-Sahaba (SSP) 220 7.5.9. Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) 221 7.5.10. Al- Qaeda: Arabic al-Qāʿidah (the Base) 224 7.5.11. Threat from Afghan Taliban. 225 7.5.12. Presence of Punjabi Taliban in Wasziristan 226 7.6. Pakistan’s Counter-Strategy against TTP 230 7.7. TTP-A Long-Term Security Threat 232 7.8. Internal Splits in TTP 234 7.9. Tehrik-i-Nifaz-e-Shariat-e-Muhammadi (TNSM) Differences between TTP and the Muqami Taliban 236 7.10. Review of the Operations in KP and FATA 237 7.11. Implications 239 7.12. Conclusion 243 References 247 Chapter 8 Post-US Withdrawal Scenario 256 8.1. US Exit from Afghanistan 257 8.2. Assessing the US Withdrawal Policy 257 8.3. Revival of Pak-US Ties 264 8.4. Role of Judiciary 267 8.5. Evaluation of Faction's Breakdown and Configuration of New Factions 269 8.6. Formation of New Factions 271 8.6.1. Current Situation 272 8.6.2. Kurram and Orakzai Agencies 271 8.6.3. Khyber / Mohmand Agency. 273 8.6.4.(a) TTM (JUA) 273 8.7. National Action Plan (NAP) 277 8.8. 20 contours of the NAP 278 8.9. Conclusion 279 References 282 Chapter 9 Findings and Recommendations 284 Findings of the Study 285 International/Regional Environment 286 Domestic Environment 287 Suggestions 288 Long Term Suggestions 293 Recommendations for Pakistan’s Engagement with Afghanistan 294 Conclusion 296 Bibliography 301 Annexure A 325 Annexure B 328 Annexure C 330 Annexure D 340 Annexure E 343 Annexure F 357 Maps 401 i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS All acclamations to the Almighty ALLAH, the most merciful and the most significant, who bestowed to me wellbeing, power of correspondence and opportunity to adequately complete my Ph.D degree. Perpetual welcome is upon the Holy Prophet "Hazrat Muhammad" (Peace be upon Him), the most perfect light of learning for humanity by and large. I feel grateful to express my true appreciation to Prof. Dr. Adnan Sarwar Khan and Prof. Dr. Noman Omar Sattar for their support, supervision and direction throughout my Ph.D research. I always found of them very lively, encouraging, and full of knowledge, enthusiasm, vivacity and intellectual inquisitiveness. Without their comments, ideas, and interminable interest this work could not have been accomplished. I am grateful to all my Professors including Dr. Nasreen Ghufran, for her kind guidance throughout my PhD research. I also owe thanks to Prof. Dr. Azmat Hayat Khan for his kind guidance. I am gratified for the support of the National Defense University (NDU) especially to Brigadier. Aamir Hashmi, his staff, Abid Hussain, Abdul Majid, Syed Meraj Ali Shah, who provided assistance in collecting data throughout this entire procedure. Moreover, I am grateful to my friend Dr. Sohail Ahmed for his cooperation and support during my research. Ayesha Shahid ii ACRONYMS AAB Abdullah Azam Brigade ASWJ Ahle SunnatWal Jamaat AIG Afghan Interim Government AI Ansar-ul-Islam ANA The Afghan National Army ANP Awami National Party APA Assistant Political Agent APS Army Public School AK Azad Kashmir BA Bajaur Agency CARs Central Asian Republics CIA Central Intelligence Agency CNG Commander Nazir Group CO Commanding Officer DAISH Al-Dawlah Al-Islamiyah fe Al-Iraq wa Al- Sham Islamic state of Iraq and Al Sham’ or ‘Islamic State of Iraq’ and Syria (ISIS). ETIM East Turkestan Islamic Movement FATA Federally Administered Tribal Areas iii FC Frontier Corps FCR Frontier Crimes Regulation FDA FATA Development Authority FDI foreign direct investment FFs Foreign Fighters FR Frontier Region GHQ General Headquarters GID General Intelligence Department GDP Gross Domestic Product HBG Hafiz Gul Bahadur HEC Higher Education Commission HSK Hafiz Saeed Khan Group HM Hizb-ul-Mujahideen (Organization of the Mujahideen) HuA Harkat-ul-Ansar (Movement of the Helpers of Mohammed) HuJI Harkat-ul-Jihad-i-Islami (Movement of Islamic Jihad) HuMA Harkat-ul-Mujahideen-al-Alami (Movement of Holy Warriors) HIH Hizb-e-Islami-Hikmatyar HIK Hizb-e-Islami (Khalis) HM Hizb-ul-Mujahideen iv HQN Haqqani Group HUJI Harkat-ul-Jihadi-e-Islami HUM Harkat• ul-Mujahideen ICG International Crisis Group IS Islamic State ISAF International Security Assistance Force IDP Internally Displaced Persons IED Improvised Explosive Device IJU Islamic Jihad Union IMU Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan ISI Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate (Pakistan intelligence service) JeM Jaish-e-Mohammed (Army of Mohammed) JI Jamaat-e-Islami (Islamic Party) JuD Jamaat-ul-Dawa (Group of the Call to Islam) JKLF Jammu Kashmir Liberation Front JUA Jamat Ul Ahrar JUI Jamaat-ul-Ulema-i-Islami (Assembly of Islamic Clergy) JUI-F Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (Fazl ur Rehman) KA Kurram Agency KHA Khyber Agency v KPK Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa LEA Law Enforcement Agencies LI Lashkar-e-Islam LeJ Laskar-e-Jhangvi LeT Lashkar-e-Taiba (Army of the Pure) LoC Line of Control MA Mohmand Agency MNA Members of National Assembly MMA Muttahidda
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