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Pakistan-U.S. Relations Pakistan-U.S. Relations K. Alan Kronstadt Specialist in South Asian Affairs July 1, 2009 Congressional Research Service 7-5700 www.crs.gov RL33498 CRS Report for Congress Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress Pakistan-U.S. Relations Summary A stable, democratic, prosperous Pakistan actively combating religious militancy is considered vital to U.S. interests. U.S. concerns regarding Pakistan include regional and global terrorism; Afghan stability; democratization and human rights protection; the ongoing Kashmir problem and Pakistan-India tensions; and economic development. A U.S.-Pakistan relationship marked by periods of both cooperation and discord was transformed by the September 2001 terrorist attacks on the United States and the ensuing enlistment of Pakistan as a key ally in U.S.-led counterterrorism efforts. Top U.S. officials praise Pakistan for its ongoing cooperation, although long-held doubts exist about Islamabad’s commitment to some core U.S. interests. Pakistan is identified as a base for terrorist groups and their supporters operating in Kashmir, India, and Afghanistan. Pakistan’s army has conducted unprecedented and, until recently, largely ineffectual counterinsurgency operations in the country’s western tribal areas, where Al Qaeda operatives and pro-Taliban militants are said to enjoy “safe haven.” U.S. officials increasingly are concerned that indigenous religious extremists represent a serious threat to the stability of the Pakistani state. The United States strongly encourages maintenance of a bilateral cease-fire and a continuation of substantive dialogue between Pakistan and neighboring India, which have fought three wars since 1947. A perceived Pakistan-India nuclear arms race has been the focus of U.S. nonproliferation efforts in South Asia. Attention to this issue intensified following nuclear tests by both countries in 1998. The United States has been troubled by evidence of transfers of Pakistani nuclear technologies and materials to third parties, including North Korea, Iran, and Libya. Such evidence became stark in 2004, and related illicit smuggling networks may still be operative. Pakistan’s macroeconomic indicators turned positive after 2001, with some meaningful poverty reduction seen in this still poor country. However, conditions deteriorated sharply in 2008-2009. Democracy has fared poorly in Pakistan, with the country enduring direct military rule for more than half of its existence. In 1999, the elected government was ousted in a coup led by Army Chief General Pervez Musharraf, who later assumed the title of president. Musharraf retained the position as army chief until his November 2007 retirement from the military. Late 2007 instability included Musharraf’s six-week-long imposition of emergency rule and the assassination of former Prime Minister and leading opposition figure Benazir Bhutto. However, February 2008 parliamentary elections were relatively credible and seated a coalition led by Bhutto’s widower, Asif Zardari, and opposed to Musharraf’s continued rule. Musharraf resigned the presidency in August and Zardari subsequently was (indirectly) elected as the new President. The Bush Administration determined in early 2008 that a democratically elected government was restored in Islamabad, thus permanently removing coup-related aid sanctions. The Obama Administration states an intention to continue pursuing close and mutually beneficial relations with Islamabad. As part of its “new strategy” for Afghanistan, the Administration seeks development of a “more coherent” Pakistan policy to include tripling nonmilitary aid to improve the lives of the Pakistani people, as well as conditioning U.S. military aid to Islamabad on that government’s progress in combating militancy and on democratization. A Special Representative was appointed to coordinate U.S. government efforts with both Pakistan and Afghanistan. Pakistan is among the world’s leading recipients of U.S. aid and will by the end of FY2009 have obtained more than $7.7 billion in overt assistance since 2001, including about $4.6 billion in development and humanitarian aid. Pakistan also has received about $7.2 billion in military reimbursements for its support of counterterrorism efforts. Congress in 2009 authorized large and sustained increases in bilateral assistance to Pakistan along with conditions on future security aid. Congressional Research Service Pakistan-U.S. Relations Contents Introduction ................................................................................................................................1 Key Current Issues and Developments ........................................................................................3 The New U.S. Administration ...............................................................................................3 The Appointment of a U.S. Special Representative..........................................................5 The Administration’s Afghanistan-Pakistan Policy Review..............................................6 May 2009 Trilateral Summit............................................................................................8 Deteriorating Economic Circumstances.................................................................................8 The Friends of Pakistan (FOP) Group....................................................................................9 Increasing Islamist Militancy ..............................................................................................10 Threats to Punjab and Sindh..........................................................................................12 Conflict in Western Pakistan and the Afghan Insurgency ...............................................13 Pro-Taliban Militants in the Tribal Agencies..................................................................16 The Swat Valley............................................................................................................19 Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) ..............................................................................23 Questions About Pakistan’s Main Intelligence Agency...................................................27 Major Shift in Pakistani Attitudes Toward the Taliban ...................................................29 U.S. Policy and Bilateral Counterterrorism Cooperation......................................................29 Cross-Border Coordination and U.S. Military Action.....................................................32 Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) Attacks ......................................................................33 Deteriorated Relations With India .......................................................................................36 Pre-November 26 Pakistan-India Engagement...............................................................36 Mumbai Terrorism and Islamabad’s Response...............................................................37 Fallout for Bilateral Relations .......................................................................................39 Implications for U.S. Interests.......................................................................................41 Selected Commentary on U.S. Policy Options.....................................................................42 Setting and Regional Relations..................................................................................................44 Historical Setting ................................................................................................................44 Political Setting...................................................................................................................46 Musharraf’s 1999 Coup d’Etat ......................................................................................46 The 2008 Democratic Revival.......................................................................................46 Role of the Pakistani Military........................................................................................53 Regional Relations..............................................................................................................55 Pakistan-India Rivalry...................................................................................................55 The “IPI” Pipeline Project.............................................................................................57 Afghanistan ..................................................................................................................58 China ............................................................................................................................60 Pakistan-U.S. Relations and Key Country Issues .......................................................................61 Terrorism............................................................................................................................62 Al Qaeda’s Resurgence in Pakistan................................................................................64 Infiltration Into Afghanistan..........................................................................................66 Infiltration into Kashmir and India ................................................................................68 Domestic Terrorism.......................................................................................................69 Other Security Issues ..........................................................................................................70
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