Employment-Unemployment Hearings

S. HRG. 100-445, Pr. 28 EMPLOYMENT-UNEMPLOYMENT

HEARINGS BEFORE THE JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES ONE HUNDREDTH CONGRESS FIRST SESSION

PART 28 JANUARY 9, FEBRUARY 6, MARCH 6, APRIL 3, MAY 8, AND JUNE 5, 1987

[HEARING DAYS OF APRIL 5, MAY 3, JUNE 7, JULY 5, AUGUST 2, SEPTEMBER 6, OCTOBER 4, NOVEMBER 1, AND DECEMBER 6,1985, AND JANUARY 8, FEBRUARY 7, MARCH 7, MAY 2, JUNE 6, AUGUST 1, SEPTEMBER 5, OCTOBER 3, NOVEMBER 7, AND DECEMBER 5,1986, WERE NOT PRINTED; A CORRECTED COPY OF THE STENOGRAPHIC PROCEEDINGS FOR EACH DAY MAY BE FOUND IN THE COMMITTEE FILES. HEARING DAYS OF APRIL 4 AND JULY 4,1986, WERE NOT HELD.]

Printed for the use of the Joint Economic Committee

U.S. GOVERMENT PRINTING OFFICE 79-018 WASHINGTON: 1988

For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, Congressonal Saele Office US. Government Printing Offlce, Washington, DC 20402 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMIITEE [Created pursuant to sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Congress] SENATE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES PAUL S. SARBANES, Maryland, LEE H. HAMILTON, Indiana, Chairman Vice Chairman WILLIAM PROXMIRE, Wisconsin AUGUSTUS F. HAWKINS, California LLOYD BENTSEN, Texas DAVID R. OBEY, Wisconsin EDWARD M. KENNEDY, Massachusetts JAMES H. SCHEUER, New York JOHN MELCHER, Montana FORTNEY H. (PETE) STARK, California JEFF BINGAMAN, New Mexico STEPHEN J. SOLARZ, New York WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR., Delaware CHALMERS P. WYLIE, Ohio STEVE SYMMS, Idaho OLYMPIA J. SNOWE, Maine ALFONSE M. D'AMATO, New York HAMILTON FISH, JR., New York PETE WILSON, California J. ALEX McMILLAN, North Carolina JUDITH DAVISON, Executive Director RICHARD F. KAUFMAN, General Counsel STEPHEN QUICK, Chief Economist ROBERT J. TOSTERUD, Minority Assistant Director

(II) CONTENTS

WITNESSES AND STATEMENTS

FRIAY, JANUARY 9, 1987 Page Sarbanes, Hon. Paul S., chairman of the Joint Economic Committee: Opening statement...... 1 Norwood, Hon. Janet L., Commissioner, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Depart- ment of Labor, accompanied by Thomas J. Plewes, Associate Commissioner, Office of Employment and Unemployment Statistics; Kenneth V. Dalton, Associate Commissioner,tions.2~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.Datn Office of Prices and Living Conditions; and George L. Stelluto, Associate Commissioner, Office of Wages and Industrial Rela- tions ...... 2

.ER1DAY, FEBRUARY 6, 1987 Sarbanes, Hon. Paul S., chairman of the Joint Economic Committee: Opening statement ...... 157 Norwood, Hon. Janet L., Commissioner, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Depart- ment of Labor, accompanied by Thomas J. Plewes, Associate Commissioner, Office of Employment and Unemployment Statistics; and Kenneth V. Dalton, Associate Commissioner, Office of Prices and Living Conditions ...... 158 FRIDAY, MARcH 6, 1987 McMillan, Hon. J. Alex, member of the Joint Economic Committee: Opening statement...... 229 Norwood, Hon. Janet L., Commissioner, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Depart- ment of Labor, accompanied by Thomas J. Plewes, Associate Commissioner, Office of Employment and Unemployment Statistics; Kenneth V. Dalton, Associate Commissioner, Office of Prices and Living Conditions; and Jerome A. Mark, Associate Commissioner, Office of Productivity and Technology ...... 229 FRiDAY, APRIL 3, 1987 Sarbanes, Hon. Paul S., chairman of the Joint Economic Committee: Opening statement...... 331 Norwood, Hon. Janet L., Commissioner, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Depart- ment of Labor, accompanied by Thomas J. Plewes, Associate Commissioner, Office of Employment and Unemployment Statistics; and Kenneth V. Dalton, Associate Commissioner, Office of Prices and Living Conditions ...... 331

FRIDAY, MAY 8, 1987 Sarbanes, Hon. Paul S., chairman of the Joint Economic Committee: Opening statement ...... 8...... m363 Wylie, Hon. Chalmers P., member of the Joint Economic Committee: Opening statement...... 364 Norwood, Hon. Janet L., Commissioner, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Depart- ment of Labor, accompanied by Thomas J. Plewes, Associate Commissioner, Office of Employment and Unemployment Statistics; and Kenneth V. Dalton, Associate Commissioner, Office of Prices and Living Conditions ...... 364

(111) Iv FRIDAY, JuNE 5, '1987 ~~~~~~~~~~~Page Proxmire, Hon. William, member of the Joint Economic Committee, ing Opening statement...... 393presid- Norwood, Hon. Janet L., Commissioner, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Depart- ment of Labor, accompanied by Thomas J. Plewes, Associate Commissioner, Office of Employment and Unemployment Statistics; Dalton, and Kenneth V. Associate Commissioner, Office of Prices and Living Conditions ...... 394 SUBMISSIONS FOR THE RECORD FRIDAY, JANUARY 9, 1987 Norwood, Hon. Janet L., et al.: Table reflecting unemployment rates of all civilian tive seasonal workers by alterna- adjustment methods ...... 6 Press release No. 87-13 entitled "The Employment Situation: December 1986," Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department 1987 ...... of Labor, January 9, 8 Press release No. 87-12 entitled "Producer Price Indexes-December 1986," Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of 1987 ...... Labor, January 9, 30 Response to Senator Sarbanes' query regarding workers...... definition of part-time 46 Bulletin No. 2262 entitled "Employee Benefits in Medium and Large Firms, 1985," Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department 1986 of Labor, July ...... 60 FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 6, 1987 Norwood, Hon. Prepared Janet L., et al.: statement ...... 161 Table reflecting unemployment rates of all civilian workers tive by alterna- seasonal adjustment methods ...... 169 Press release No. 87-50 entitled "The Employment Situation: January 1987," Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor, 1987 ...... February 6, 171 Response to Senator Sarbanes' request to supply for the record the overall civilian employment-population ratio ...... 194 Tabular response to Senator Sarbanes' request to supply for the record the employment status of the Hispanic population ...... 204 Response to Senator Sarbanes' query regarding the percentage of the population not in the labor force...... 206 Response to Senator Melcher's question regarding employment various types data on of mining...... 221 FRIDAY, MARCH 6, 1987 Norwood, Hon. Janet L., et al.: Table reflecting unemployment rates of all civilian workers by alternative seasonal adjustment methods ...... 232 Press release No. 87-93 entitled "The Employment Situation: February 1987," Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor, March 6, 1987.. 234 Report 736 entitled "The Consumer Price Index: of 1987 Revision," Bureau Labor Statistics, Department of Labor, January 1987 ...... 253 Articleentitled "Japans Low Unemployment: Monthly An In-Depth Analysis," Labor Review, March 1984 ...... 271 Article entitled "Recent Recessions Swell Ranks of the Long-Term Unem- ployed," Monthly Labor Review, February 1984 ...... 287 Response to Representative Solarz' question regarding rates U.S. productivity compared to the rates of other industrial democracies ...... 293 Article entitled "Hourly Paid Workers: Who They Are Earn," and What They Monthly Labor Review, February 1986 ...... 300 Response to Representative McMillan's request for data on poverty and what impact public assistance has in reducing poverty ...... 308 Response to Representative Solarz' questions long-term regarding the causes of unemployment...... 310 Response to Representative Solarz' request for effects a list of studies on the of the minimum wage ...... 320 V

Norwood, Hon. Janet L., et al.-Continued page Response to Representative Solarz' query regarding the increase in personal debt ...... 325 Sarbanes, Hon. Paul S., chairman of the Joint Economic Committee: Written opening statement...... 226 FRIDAY, APul 3, 1987 Norwood, Hon. Janet L., et al.: Table reflecting unemployment rates of all civilian workers by alternative seasonal adjustment methods ...... 333 Press release No. 87-137 entitled "The Employment Situation: March 1987," Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor, April 3, 1987 .... 335

FRIDAY, MAY 8, 1987 Norwood, Hon. Janet L., et al.: Table reflecting unemployment rates of all civilian workers by alternative seasonal adjustment methods ...... 367 Press release No. 87-185 entitled "The Employment Situation: April 1987," Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor, May 8, 1987 ...... 369

FRIDAY, JUNE 5, 1987 McMillan, Hon. J. Alex, member of the Joint Economic Committee: Written opnn s ttmn...... 394 Norwood, Hon. Janet L., et al.: Table reflecting unemployment rates of all civilian workers by alternative seasonal adjustment methods ...... 396 Press release No. 87423 entitled "The Employment Situation: May 1987," Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor, June 5, 1987 ..... 398 EMPLOYMENT-UNEMPLOYMENT

FRIDAY, JANUARY 9, 1987

CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES, JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE, Washington, DC. The committee met, pursuant to notice, at 9:30 a.m., in room SD- 628, Dirksen Senate Office Building, Hon. Paul S. Sarbanes (chairman of the committee) presiding. Present: Senators Sarbanes and Melcher. Also present: Dena Stoner, William R. Buechner, Christopher J. Frenze, and Dale Jahr, professional staff members. OPENING STATEMENT OF SENATOR SARBANES, CHAIRMAN Senator SARBANES. The committee will come to order. I am very pleased to welcome Commissioner Norwood before the Joint Eco- nomic Committee this morning to testify on the December employment and unemployment figures. I do so in my capacity as the incoming chairman of the Joint Economic Committee in the 100th Congress, the 12th chairman of the committee since its establishment in the 79th Congress by the Employment Act of 1946. It is a great honor to serve as chairman of a committee which over the years has been served by very distinguished chairmen, drawn from both the Senate and the House; a committee which has sponsored and encouraged major research and inquiry over the last 40 years into virtually every aspect of the Nation s economy; and which has played an indispensable role in assuring reasoned and informed debate over the appropriate course of the Nation's economic policy. I am pleased also to welcome Senator Melcher, who is a new member of the committee. John, we are very pleased to have you here. Senator MELCHER. Thank you very much, Paul. Senator SARBANES. Today s hearing is the first by the Joint Eco- nomic Committee in the 100th Congress. It is also the latest in the series of monthly employment-unemployment hearings which began in the 92d Congress nearly 16 years ago, with a hearing on April 2, 1971, chaired by my distinguished colleague, Senator Prox- mire of Wisconsin. The witness then was Geoffrey Moore, who at the time served as Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Since then the monthly unemployment hearings, of which this is the latest, have been held by each successive chairman of the committee. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has been represented before the committee by Commissioner Moore; subsequently by Commis- sioner Julius Shiskin; and for the last 9 years by Commissioner (1) 2 Janet Norwood-all three Commissioners, I might note, are highly respected professionals in their field. In a sense, Commissioner Norwood, it's appropriate that you should be the first witness before the Joint Economic Committee in this Congress. Through the years the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Joint Economic Committee have had a close and produc- tive working relationship which has been very important to the Joint Economic Committee and equally so, I hope, to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. As Commissioner since 1979 and Acting Commis- sioner for the year before that, you have played a pivotal role in assuring the integrity of our Nation's labor market data, which are among the most sensitive economic figures issued by the Federal Government. You have served Democratic and Republican adminis- trations alike with great skill, and have won the respect of Mem- bers in both Houses and on both sides of the aisle. It is always a pleasure to welcome you before the committee and we now would appreciate having your comments on the December employment and unemployment figures and the overall figures for 1986. Before you begin, Commissioner, I would turn to Senator Mel- cher if he has any comments he would like to make before you begin with your testimony. Senator MELCHER. No, Mr. Chairman, I have no comments at this time. Senator SARBANES. Fine. Commissioner Norwood. STATEMENT OF HON. JANET L. NORWOOD, COMMISSIONER, BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR, AC- COMPANIED BY THOMAS J. PLEWES, ASSOCIATE COMMISSION- ER, OFFICE OF EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT STATIS- TICS; KENNETH V. DALTON, ASSOCIATE COMMISSIONER, OFFICE OF PRICES AND LIVING CONDITIONS; AND GEORGE L. STELLUTO, ASSOCIATE COMMISSIONER, OFFICE OF WAGES AND INDUSTRIAL RELATIONS Mrs. NORWOOD. Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman. It's a very great pleasure to appear before you. We feel that our relationship with the Joint Economic Committee is extremely important to us and, I might add, to the country. I have, as usual, two experts with me. On my right is Kenneth Dalton, who is our price expert; and on my left is Thomas Plewes, who is responsible for employment and unemployment analysis. THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION Employment continued to grow moderately in December, and unemployment declined over the month. The overall jobless rate was 6.6 percent and the rate for civilian workers was 6.7 percent. Both rates were down two-tenths of a point from their revised November levels. As you know, our usual practice, in issuing the data for Decem- ber is to incorporate new seasonal factors based on the most recent year's experience-in this case, 1986-which may require revisions in some previously issued numbers. Although revisions were quite small, the revised rates do show more clearly than the previously 3 published data that a slight decline in the jobless rate occurred in the second half of 1986. The over-the-month Seasonally adjusted decline in unemployment, though small, wYas fairly widespread among major worker groups. However, the jobless rate for Hispanic workers, which tends to be quite volatile, returned to the October level. Unemploy- ment rates for black workers, especially for black teenagers, continue to be quite high, more than twice the rate of white workers. Joblessness among blacks, however, showed a greater decline over the past year. Civilian employment, as measured by the household survey, edged up by about 200,000 in December, after seasonal adjustment; most of the change occurred among adult men. A record 60.9 percent of the civilian population was employed in December, the same ratio as November. During 1986, employment rose by about 2.2 million-after adjustment for the revised population counts. Nonfarm payroll jobs, as measured by our business survey, rose by 270,000 in December after seasonal adjustment. As has been the case in recent months, virtually all of the increase occurred in the service-producing sector. The largest changes occurred in the services industry itself and in finance, insurance, and real estate. Em- ployment in retail trade was unchanged after seasonal adjustment; the number of jobs in eating and drinking places continued to grow, but the gain was offset by less than usual holiday hiring in general merchandise stores. Factory employment continued to edge up in December. The BLS diffusion index, which is heavily weighted toward manufacturing, showed, for the second month in a row, that more than 60 percent of the industries in the index had over-the-month employment increases. Since September, factory job gains have totaled 85,000 but the level of factory employment in December was still more than 100,000 below the level of last January. A number of manufacturing industries wound up the year with sizable job losses. The largest of these 1986 job losses occurred in the machinery, primary and fabricated metal, automobile, and electrical equipment industries. The factory workweek-at 40.9 hours in December-is very high by historic standards. Aggregate hours in the Nation's factors are very near the level of a year ago, in spite of the decline over the year in the number of factory jobs. Employment in construction changed little over the month after seasonal adjustment. Jobs in the oil and gas extraction industry, which had held steady in October and November, declined again in December. The industry lost nearly 150,000 jobs during 1986, a quarter of its work force. Overall, payroll job growth was more moderate last year than earlier in the recovery. More than 2.4 million jobs were added to nonfarm payrolls during 1986. The services industry itself, fueled by sharp job growth in business and health services, accounted for more than 4 out of every 10 new payroll jobs in 1986. Employment in retail trade was up by nearly 600,000 over the year, with much of the growth in eating and drinking establishments. Jobs in finance, insurance, and real estate rose by 370,000. Growth was especially rapid in the finance industry, as lower interest rates brought increased demand for new and refinanced home mortgages. 4 Although the labor force was little changed in December, it has grown by nearly 2 million over the past year. Adult women accounted for a smaller proportion of that growth than in recent years-about 53 percent. The number of discouraged workers- those not in the labor force who wanted a job but felt that job search would be useless-remained at 1.1 million in the fourth quarter of 1986. There has been very little change in the size of this group for more than a year now. In summary, employment, especially in services, continued its upward trend, and unemployment declined in December. Factory jobs, although well below the level at the beginning of the year, have shown small growth in each of the months of the fourth quarter of 1986, and factory hours remain quite strong. PRODUCER PRICES Mr. Chairman, we also released this morning the data for the December Producer Price Index and I have a few comments on those data. The Producer Price Index for finished goods showed no change from November to December after seasonal adjustment. The index had registered modest increases in each of the 4 previous months. Prices received by domestic producers of intermediate goods again moved up slightly, and crude material prices fell back to their Sep- tember level. Reviewing Producer Price Index data for the year as a whole, we see that the dramatic cuts in prices for energy goods-particularly crude oil, refined petroleum products, and natural gas-were the driving force behind the unusually large drops in each of the three major stage-of-processing index groupings during 1986. We are unlikely to observe further deflationary pressure from this source, at least to that degree. And although there has been some firming in prices for petroleum-related products after the most recent OPEC agreement, I doubt that this development threatens to reaccelerate inflation to double-digit levels in the immediate future. While fluctuations in energy prices dominated PPI movements in 1986, I want to emphasize the continuation of a very moderate, what might be called "underlying" rate of inflation. Prices for finished goods outside the volatile energy and food sectors, for example, rose less than 3 percent for the 4th consecutive year. Further- more, prices for most industrial materials again showed relatively modest changes. Our index for intermediate goods less foods and energy-a broad sample of industrial materials including items such as steel, aluminum, textile fibers, industrial chemicals, lumber, cement, and paper-was virtually unchanged over the year and, in fact, stands at exactly the same level as in December 1984. Considering that we are now entering the 5th year of economic expansion, I believe our Nation's recent record on inflation is quite remarkable. Of course, I recognize-and I think we all need to-the lower prices that are so welcome in some segments of our society at the same time reflect an enormous burden on many of our domestic producers. In particular, falling prices have constituted a major problem for many of our farms and our energy industry, while 5 profit margins for some manufacturing concerns are being serious- ly restrained by intense foreign competition. Mr. Chairman, my colleagues and I would be very glad to try to answer any questions. [The table attached to Mrs. Norwood's statement, together with the press releases referred to, follows:] Unemployment rates of all civilian workers by alternative seasonal adjustment methods

X-ll ARIMA method X-II method Month Unad- Concurrent (official Range and justed Official (as first Concurrent Stable Total Residual method (cola. year rate I procedure computed ) (revised ) before 1980) 2-8) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

1985

December •••• 6.7 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 - 1986

January ••••• 7.3 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.7 .2 February •••• 7.8 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.3 .1 March ••••••• 7.5 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 .1 April ••••••• 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 .1 May ••••••••• 7.0 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 - June •••.•••• 7.3 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 - July •••••••• 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 6.9 7.0 7.0 .1 August •••••• 6.7 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.9 7.0 6.8 .2 September ••• 6.8 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 - October ••••• 6.6 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.0 6.9 6.9 7.0 .1 November •••• 6.6 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.0 .1 December •••• 6.3 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.7 .1

SOURCE: U.S. DEPARTMENT OF-LABOR Bureau of Labor Statistics January 1987 7

(1) Unadjusted rot. Unemployment rate for all civilian workers, not seasonally adjusted.

(2) Official procedure (X-ll ARIMAmethod). The published seasonally adjusted rate for all civilin sorkers. Each of the 3 major civilian labor force compowents-.gricultural employmnt, nonagricultural employment and unemployment-for 4 age-sex groups-males and females, ages 16-19 and 20 years snd over-are seasona ly adjusted Independently using data from January 1975 forv rd. The data series for each of these 12-cosponents are extended by a year at each end of the original series using ARIOIA(Auto-Regressive, Integrated, Moving Average) models chosen specifically for each series. Each extended series Is then seasonally adjusted with the X-11 portion of the X-1l ARlMAProgrom. The 4 teenage unemployment and nonagricultural employment components are adjusted with the additive adjustment model, while the other components are adjusted with the multiplicative model. The unemployment rate Is computed by snlmmng the 4 seasonally adjusted unemployment components and calculating that total as a percent of the civilian labor force total derived by summing all 12 seasonally adjusted components. All the seasonally adjusted series are revised at the end of esch year. Extrapolated factors for January-June are computed at the beginning of each year; extrapolated factors for July-December are computed in the middle of the year after the June data hecome available. EIch set of 6-month fctors are published In advance, in the January and July issues respectively of Employment *nd Eranegs.

(3) Concurrent (as first computed, S-l ARIMAmethod). The official procedure for computation of the rate for all ciJilian workers using the 12 components Is folloved except that extrapolated factors are not used at all. Each cooponent Is sessonally adjusted with the X-1l ARIlA progr each month as the most recent data become available. Reates for each month of the current year are shown as first computed; they are revised only once each year, at the end of the year when data for the full year become available. For example, the rate for January 1985 would be based, during 1985, on the djustment of data from the period January 1975 through January 1985.

(4) Concurrent (revised, X-1l ARIMAmethod). The procedure used Is Identical to (3) above, snd the rate for the current month (the last month displayed) will always be the see In the two columns. However, all previous months are subject to revision each month bhsed on the seasonal adjustment of alI the components with data through the current month.

(5) Stable (X-11 ARIMAnethod). Each of the 12 civilian labor force components Is extended using ARIMAmodels as In the official procedure and then run through the 1-11 part of the program using the stable option. This option asuses that seasonal patterns are basically constant from year-to-year and computesfinal seasonal factors as unlighted averages of all the seasonal-irregular components for each mouth across the entire *pan of the period adjusted. As In the official procedure, factors are - extrapolated In 6,-onth intervals and the series are revised at the end of each year. The procedure for computation of the rate from the seasonally adjusted components Is also Identical to the official procedure.

(6) Total (X-Il ARIMAmethod). This Is one alternative aggregation procedure, In which totalunemployment nd civillan labor forcelevels are extended with ARIMAmodels and directly adjusted with multiplicative djustment models In the X-l1 part of the progrm. The rate Is computed by taking seasonally adjusted total unemployment a a percent of seasonally adjusted total civillan labor force. Factors are extrapolated In 6-month Intervals and the series revisedat the end of each year.

(7) Residual (X-ll ARIMAmethod). This is another alternative aggregation method, In which total civilian employment and civilian labor force levels are extended usingARIIA models and then directly adjusted with multiplicative adjustment models. The seasonally adjusted unemployment level 1s derived by subtracting seasonally adjusted employment from seasonally adjusted labor force. The rate Is then cemputed by taking the derived unemployment level as a percent of the labor forcelevel. Factors are extrapolated In 6-month Intervals and the series revised at the end of each year.

(8) X-11 method (official method before 1980). The aethod for computation of the official procedure Is used except that the series are not extended with ARIMA models and the factors are projected in 12-month intervals. The standard X-1l program 1s used to perform the seasonaladjustment.

Methods of Adlustment: The X-11 ARIHAmethod was developed at Statistics Canada by the Seasonal Adjustment and Tines Series Staff under the direction of Estela Bee Dag-m The method Is described In The X-Il ARIMASeasonal Adjustment Method, by Estela Bee Dags, Statistics Canada Catalogue No. 12-564E, February 1980.

The standard X-ll method is described in X-Il Variant of the Census Method 1t Seasonal Adlustment Progrm by Julius Shlskkn. Allan Young and John Musgrave (Technlial Paper No. 15, Bureau of the Census, 1967). 8

N | United States ,W SUewDepartrment 4$ of Labor P Bureau of Labor Statistics Washington, D.C. 20212

Technical information: (202) 523-1371 ISDL 87-13 521-1944 523-1959 TRANSMISSION OF MATERIAL IN THIS Media contact: 523-1913 RELEASE IS EMBARGOEDUNTIL 8:30 A.M. (EST), FRIDAY, JANUARY 9, 1987

THE EMPLOYMENTSITUATION: DECEMBER1986

Employment continued Lo rise in December and unemployment declined, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The overall unemployment rate was 6.6 percent and the civilian worker rate was 6.7 percent; both were down two-tenths of a percentage point from the revised figures for the prior 2 months.

Nonagricultural payroll employment--as measured by the monthly survey of esLablishments--rose by 270,000 in December while civilian employment--as measured by the monthly survey of households--was up by 205,000. Both employment series showed growth in excess of 2 million during 1986.

Unemployment (Household Survey Data)

The number of unemployed persons declined by 295,000 in December, after adjustment for seasonality, to 7.9 million. After holding steady for 2 months, the civilian jobless rate fell 0.2 percentage point to 6.7 percent. With the exception of December, the unemployment rate fluctuated within two-tenths of the annual average of 7.0 percent throughout 1986. (See table A-2.)

December unemployment rates for adult men (6.0 percent), adult women (5.9 percent), teenagers (17.3 percent), whites (5.8 percent); and blacks (13.7 percent) were slightly below those of the previous month. However, the jobless rate for Hispanics rose to 10.5 percent, offsetting a decline in November. During 1986, jobless rates for adult women, teenagers, whites, and blacks declined, whereas those for adult men and Hispanics showed little or no improvement. (See tables A-2 and A-3.)

The bulk of the December decline in unemployment Look Place among the medium-term jobless--those out of work 5 to 14 weeks. The mean and median duration of unemployment were about unchanged at 15.0 and 7.1 weeks,

This release incorporates annual revisions in seasonally adjusted unemployment and other labor force series derived from the household survey. The 1986 overall and civilian worker unemployment rates as first computed and as revised, plus additional information on the revisions, appear on page 5. 9

respectively. Both measures have changed little over the past year. (See table A-7.)

Civilian Employment and the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)

Civilian employment, at 110.6 million, rose by 205,000 in December. Over the year, total employment advanced by 2.2 million, with adult women

Table A. Major Indicators of labor market activity, aeasonally'adjuted

Quarterly Monthly data averages Category Nov.- 1986 1986 Dec.

III I IV Oct. I Nov. I Dec. change HOUSEHOLD DATA Thousands of persons Labor force 1/...... 119,866 120,308 120,163 120,426 120,336 -90 Total employment 1/. . 111,675 112,170 111,941 112,183 112,387 204 Civilian labor force... 118,171 118,558 118,414 118,675 118,586 -89 Civilian employment.. 109,980 110,420 110,192 110,432 110,637 205 Unemployment ...... 8,191 8,138 8,222 8,243 7,949 -294 Not in labor force..... 62,664 62,807 62,772 62,688 62,961 273 Discouraged workers.. 1,150 1,127 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.

Percent of labor force Unemployment rates: All workers 1/...... 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.6 -0.2 All civilian workers. 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.7 -.2 Adult men...... 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.0 -.2 Adult women...... 6.1 6.0 6.1 6.1 5.9 -.2 Teenagers...... 18.1 17.8 17.7 18.2 17.3 -.9 White...... 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.8 -.2 Black...... 14.5 14.1 14.3 14.2 13.7 -.5 Hispanic origin.... 10.8 10.2 10.4 9.6 10.5 .9

ESTABLISHMENT DATA Thousands of jobs 3 3 4 2 6 9 Nonfarm employment..... 100, 316 p10,075 100,826 pl01,065 plOl, p 2 4 8 9 5 Goods-producing...... 24,872 p24,897 24,865 p p24,932 p37 4 Service-producing.... 75,444 p76,178 75,961 p76,170 p76, 02 p232

Hours of work Average weekly hour,: 34 8 Total private ...... 34.7 p34.7 34.7 p . p34.6 p-0.2 4 0 8 4 Manufacturing...... 40.7 p40.81 40.7 p . p 0.9 p.1 Overtime...... 3.51 p3.51 3.51 P3.51 P3.61 p.1

I/ Includes the resident Armed Forces. N.A.-not available. p-preliminary. NOTE: Household data have been revised based on the experience through December 1986. 10

accounting for 55 percent of the increase. (All yearly comparisons are adjusted for changes in the underlying population estimates introduced in January 1986.)

The civilian labor force was about unchanged at 118.6 million in December, after seasonal adjustment. Over the past year, the labor force rose by 1.9 million. (See table A-2.)

Discouraged Workers (Household Survey Data)

In the fourth quarter of 1986, there were 1.1 million discouraged workers--persons who wanted to work but did not look for jobs because they believed that they could not find any. Their number has been essentially unchanged for more than a year. Seventy-five percent of the discouraged workers cited job-market conditions as their reason for not looking, while the remainder cited personal factors. Blacks continued to make up a disproportionately large share (26 percent) of all discouraged workers. (See table A-14.)

Industry Payroll Employment (Establishment Survey Data)

Total nonagricultural payroll employment rose by 270,000 in December, seasonally adjusted, to a level of 101.3 million. For the second month in a row, increases occurred in about three-fifths of the 185 industries in the BLS index of diffusion. (See tables B-1 and B-6.)

The service-producing sector accounted for almost all of the over-the-month job growth, as it has for most months over the past year. The services industry itself posted another large monthly increase-140,000. This industry has accounted for 44 percent of the 2.4 million over-the-year expansion in payroll jobs, largely because of the rapid growth in its business and health services components. Employment also rose over the month in finance, insurance, and real estate. Over the past year, this rapidly growing industry has added 370,000 jobs, a 6 percent increase. Employment in transportation and public utilities, wholesale trade, retail trade, and government were all little changed over the month, after seasonal adjustment.

In the goods-producing sector, manufacturing employment edged up for the third month in a row in December. Since September, manufacturing employment has increased by 85,000, regaining almost half the jobs lost in the first 9 months of the year. Employment in construction was little changed, continuing the recent pattern. In mining, there was a further, although small, job decline in the oil and gas extraction industry, following 2 months of relatively stable employment.

Weekly Hours (Establishment Survey Data)

Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls were 34.6, down 0.2 hour, after seasonal adjustment. In manufacturing, however, both the average workweek and overtime hours edged up by a tenth of an hour. (See table B-2.) 11

The index of aggregate weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls declined by 0.3 percent to 119.0 (1977-100), after seasonal adjustment. The factory index rose by 0.4 percent to 93.6. (See table B-5.)

Hourly and Weekly Earnings (Estabfishment Survey Data)

Average hourly earnings were about unchanged in December, and average weekly earnings declined 0.7 percent, seasonally adjusted. Prior to seasonal adjustment, average hourly earnings slipped 1 cent to $8.85, while average weekly earnings increased by $1.43 to $308.87. Over the past year, average hourly earnings have risen by 14 cents, and average weekly earnings were up $2.28. (See table B-3.)

The Hourly Earnings Index (Establishment Survey Data)

The Hourly Earnings Index (HEI) was 170.8 (1977-100) in December, seasonally adjusted, a decrease of 0.1 percent from November. For the 12 months ended in December, the increase was 1.8 percent. The HEI excludes the effects of two types of changes unrelated to underlying wage rate movements--fluctuations in manufacturing overtime and interindustry employment shifts. In dollars of constant purchasing power, the HEI increased 1.5 percent during the 12-month period ended in November. (See table B-4.)

The Employment Situation for January 1987 will be released on Friday, February 6, at 8:30 A.M. (EST). 12

Revisions of Seasonally Adjusted Household Survey Data

At the end of each calendar year, the BLS routinely revises the seasonally adjusted labor force series derived from the Current Population Survey (household survey) to incorporate the experience of that year. As a result of the recalculation of the seasonal factors, seasonally adjusted data for the most recent 5 years are subject to revision. (Establishment data are similarly revised concurrent with annual benchmark adjustments about mid-year.)

Table B summarizes the effects of the revisions on the overall and civilian worker unemployment rates in 1986. The 1986 annual averages, 6.9 percent for all workers and 7.0 percent for civilian workers, are, of course, not affected by seasonal adjustment revisions. Table C presents revised seasonally adjusted data for major civilian labor force series for December 1985 through December 1986.

The January 1987 issue of Employment and Earnings will contain the new seasonal adjustment factors that will be used to calculate the civilian labor force and other major series for January-June of 1987, a description of the current seasonal adjustment methodology, and revised data for the most recent 13 months or calendar quarters for all regularly published tables containing seasonally adjusted household survey data. Revised monthly data for the entire 1982-86 revision period for 425 labor force series will he published in the February 1987 issue. Historical seasonally adjusted data (monthly and quarterly) may be purchased from the Bureau. (Contact Gloria P. Green, (202) 523-1959.)

Table B. Seasonally adjusted unemployment rates in 1986 and change due to revision

As first computed As revised Change due to revision Month

Overall Civilian Overall Civilian Overall Civilian

January ...... 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.8 0.1 0 February ...... 7.2 7.3 7.1 7.2 -. 1 March ...... 7.1 7.2 7.0 7.2 -. 1 0 April ...... 7.0 7.1 7.0 7.1 0 0 May ...... 7.2 7.3 7.1 7.2 -. 1! -. June ...... 7.0 7.1 7.0 7.1 0 0 July ...... 6.8 6.9 6.9 7.0 .1 .1 August ...... 6.7 6.8 6.7 6.8 0 0 September...... 6.9 7.0 6.9 7.0 0 0 October ...... 6.9 7.0 6.8 6.9 -. 1 -.1 November ...... 6.9 7.0 6.8 6.9 -. 1 -.1 December ...... *6.5 *6.6 6.6 6.7. .1 .1

* Not published. 13

,., ... >...... I...... u.b.3.0. u 9 3 . 09 b .. ,

.....,,,,,...... i

C1~~~~~~~~~~~~~.31 .9 .3 .9I . 1 , .1 1 .1 .1.. I 45 .

ofl3.3.3.0 . 34 3430 3. 1 34.20430.30 00.31 00.3433..1 34.431' '31 '.° *ool'3°I4333 *.-1 *.

0.3.y.:.:...:...I3.4' *.* I ~ *o~o *.3 .9.1 . .331 *o .1 .0...... 1.0... .0I.4. 0.435,3 335 .5.33...... 1 3. 3 3. . 1 3 ...... 3

3.3l., ..._.... .3 03.33 2.30.33 03.33 33.3 33 ...... 3.3 . 33 '4.:'xi;.;. l *ii3.3 i;: i;4019.0i3I i~ 2.335 9.30022it"- 2.35 9.343'294.'.i 'il03010.0032.2

3.,.,i5::l.:::|i4:: ,,.... .,., ..... i0ii,., :::::3 i4.i:: 55.003 5i.0:: i0.i33 3,j3 55.00 i:.3233 35.2::, 0:.5003 0i.530

'4 , ..3...., I I ...... , I I ...... I I I I3 ,I ,3.,3,,1,2,.... ,32.0 7, ,...... ,,,. ,,, , 0.,1I4.,,l4.,O,...... ,..,,.:-,.:-,. 3.,4 ...... 4.,., 0.339,33 .,.....I 42.334.354.30I3.034.03305.0...... it ;;. .ii431 43.52j 04421 43.33443.03343giit.33i45|5 ; . 14;5340.354344.4033 l 44,20440434.5°3 a~~t.,.* P.P~5.:4*, 4453.--ali*4 *s 5,3.31 ^s 53.9s *,5**s§ I -5 oo3*5 13*5 39 . ,5543- ,.403 5 . ,., , ,. 53.03 5;.3. 50.3. 33..., 30.331 52.43,59...3 53.

'-"-----"'-"'--'- 13 I I I "' I 40 I43 I30 I342330

'' i '"-"'--"-' 35-.002 33951 *-.3i 35.30 33.334 33.3*--190.401 99.050 34.335 32.051 *.4401 33.030 4.. 54'3'' .;; i '' ''I , ''' 'I ''' ''' '0 "I "I I'i iz,

_443. _.4.330. _ I _ _ 3 _t.

4., .,..,....s.4,. .s. , 3o~ 3s,.

02.40.. 32003...I, ..1.1....3 442 .43 423 4~ I o 3 4 3 1 .3 3,0 3.9 3,2 14

Explanatory Note

This news release presents statistics from two major surveys, that time; andthey made specific efforta to find employtnat the Current Population Survey (household survey) and the sometime during the prior 4 weeka. Pertons Laidoff from their former jobs gad Awaiting recall andthoae expecting to report Current Employment Statistics Survey (establishment survey). not be looking for work to be The household survey provides the information on the labor to a job within 30 days need counted asunemployed. force, total employment, and unemployment that appearsin the A tables, marked HOUSEHOLD DATA. It is a sample The Iaborform equals the sum of the number employed and survey of about 59,500households that is conducted by the the number unemployed. The unemployinewl rehr is the Bureau of the Census with most of the findings analyzed and percentage of unemployed people in the labor form (civilian published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics 1Bts). plus the resident Armed Fores). Table A-5 presents a special The establishment surveyprovides the information on the grouping of sevenmeasures of unemployment based on vary- employment, hours, and earnings of workers on ing definitions of unemployment and the labor force. The nonagricultural payrolls that appears in the B tables, murked dermitions are provided in the table. The moot rentrictive ESTABLISHMENT DATA. This information is colected definition yields U-I andthe most comprehensive yields U-7. from payroll records by srs in cooperation with Stateagencies. The overall unemployment nte is U-Sa,while U-5b represents The sample includes 250,0C0establishments employing over 38 the same measure with a civilian labor force base. million people. Unlike the household survey, the entablishment surveyonly For both surveys, the data for a givenmonth are actually counts wage andsalary employees bhosexnasns appearon the collected for and relate to a particular week. In the household payroll records of nonagricaltural fum. As a reult, there are survey, unless otherwise indicated, it is thecalendar week that many differences between the two surveys,among which ae contains the 12th day of the month, which is called the survey the following: week. In the establishmentsurvey, the reference week is the -Tb buu ny. _bhetdba a WWaa..,, ,n&O a pay period including the 12th, which may or may not corres- bow, n crf lbt kilue. fb. s -v -i aselknbdvs, pond directly to the calendar week. &n enioyd, unsid" tany n pl budnd -uM d The data in thw release are affected by a number of technical olen utleunie Arned Fue factors, including definitions, survey differences, seasonalad- -T b,, ovyw dt P.e .P. bs -M Sb justments, and the inevitable variance in results between a inn od. u.bbn suy duesrsu: survey of a sample and a census of theentire population. Each b. boubld y b mnedin Wi-U n of _F ad imOt of thre factors is expLainedbelow. u mbheusun- i.5rws id by w. Covarage, definllions, and dltfaraice - Tn. ubd ey bn en o otf n .ba th ia- divide unuteduniv oe Ia bll* -aei wc"I- t menOnoen. lben onobenkprp b- pau -oMe The sample households in the householdsurvey areselected io-nd urunu fur _ so atsto reflect the entirecivilian noninstitutional population 16 years of age and older. Each person in a household is Other differences between the two surveysare described in classifiedas employed,unemployed, or not in the labor force. 'Compating Employment Estimatesfrom Householdand Those who hold more than one job are classified according to Payroll Surveys," which may be obtained from the as upon thejob at which theyworked themost hours. request. People areclassified as employed if theydid any work at all as paid civilians; worked in their own business or profession or Seasonasl adjustmast on their own farm; or worked IS hours or more in an enter- Over the course of a year, the size of theNation's labor prise operated by a member of their family, whether they wen force and the levels of employment and unemployment paid or not. People arealso counted us employed if they were undergo sharp fluctuations due to such aeasonalevents as on unpaid leave because of alnmfs,bad weather, disputes be- changes in weather, reduced or expanded production, bar- tween labor andmanagement, or personal reasons. Members vests, major holidays, andthe opening andclosing of schoola. of the Armed Forces stationed in the United States arealso in- For enample, the labor force increases by a laW number acb cluded in the employed total. June, when schools close andmany young people enterthe job People are chlssified as unemployed,regardless of their market. The effect of such seasonal variation cn be very eigibllity for unemployment benefits or public assistance,if large;over the course of a year, for exatple. seasonality may they meet all of the following criteria: They had no employ- accountfor as much as 95 percent of the month-to-month mentouring the survey week; theywere availablefor work at changes in unemployment. 15

Becausethese seasonal events follow a moreor lessregular from the results o' a complete census. The chances are appros- pasterneach year, their influence on statistical trends canbe imtaely 90 out of 100that an estimate based on the sample will eliminated by adjusting the statistics from month to month. differ by no more than 1.6 times the standard error from the Theseadjustments make nonseasonal developments,such as results of a complete census. At approximately the 90-percent declinesin economicactivity or increases in the participation level of confidence-the confidence limits used by uLS in its of womenin thelabor force, easierso spot.To return so the analyses-the error for the monthly change in total employ- school's-out example, shelarge number of peopleentering the ment is on the order of plus or minus 328,000; for total labor forceeach June is likely to obscureany other changes unemployment it is 220,000; and, for the overall unemploy- that havetaken placesince May. making it difficual sodeter- ment rate, it is 0.19 percentage point. These figures do not mineif the levelof economicactivity hasrisen or declined. mean that the sample results are off by these magnitudes but, However, becausethe effect of studentsfinishing schoolin rather, that the chances are approximately 90 out of 100 that previousyears is known, thestatistics for the currentYear can the "tee" level or rate would not be expected to differ from be adjustedto allow for a comparablechange. Insofar as the the estimates by more than these amounts. seasonaladjustment ismade correctly, the adjustedfigure pro- Sampling errors for monthly surveys are reduced when the sidesa more usefultool with which so analyce changesin data are cumulated for several months, such economicactivity. as quarterly or annually. Also, as a general rule, the smaller the estimate, the Measuresof labor force, employmeor, and unemployment larger the sampling error. Therefore, relativly speaking, the contain componentssuch as age and sex.Statistics for all estimate of the size of the labor force is subject so less emor employees,production workers, averageweekly hours, and than is the estimate of the number unemployed. And, among averagehourly earningsinclude componentsbased on the the unemployed, the sampling error for the jobless rate of employer's industry. All thesestatistics can be seasonallyad- adult men, for example, is much smaller than is the error for justed cither by adjusting the total or by adjusting eachof the the jobless rate of teenagers. Specifically, the error on monthly componentsand combining them. The secondprocedure change in the jobless rate for men is .26 percentage point; usually yields for more accurateinformation and is therefore teenagers, it is 1.25 percentage points. followed by BLS.For example,the seasonallyadjusted figure In the establishmeni survey, estimates for the 2 most current for the labor force is the sum of eight seasonallyadjusted months are based on incomplete retuocs; for this reason, these civilian employment componeots,plus the residentArmed estimates are labeled preliminary in the tables. When all the Forcestotal (not adjustedfor seasonality),and four seasonally returns in the sample have been received, the estimates ore adjusted unemploymentcomponents; the total for unemploy- revised. In other words, data for the month of September are meat is the sumnof the four unemploymentcomponents; and published in preliminary form in October and November and the overall unemploymentrate is derived by dividing the in final form in December. To remove errors resulting estimateof total unemployment that build up by the estimateof over time, a comprehensive count the labor force. of the employed is conducted each year. The results of this survey are used to The numericalfactors used to make the seasonalad- establish new benchmarks-comprehensive counts of justments are recalculatedregularly. For the household employment-against which month-to-month changes can be survey,the factorsare calculatedfor theJanuary-June period measured. The new benchmarks also incorporate changes in and againfor the July-December period. At the rime the first the classification of industries and allow for the foemation of half year'sfactors arecalculated (upon availability of data for ne establishments. December),historical data for the previous5-year period are subjectto revision.For the establishmentsurvey, updated factors for seasonaladjustment are calculated only oncea year, Additional statistics and other Information along with the introduction of new benchmarkswhich are In order to provide a broad view of the Nation's employ- discussedat theend of the nextsection. ment situation, BLS regularly publishes a wide variety of data in this news release. More comprehensive statistics are contain- Sampling variabllity ed in Employment and Earnings, published each month by Statisticsbased on the householdand establishment surveys BLs. Is is available for 14.50 per issue or S31.00 per year front are subjectto sampling error, that is, the estimateof the the U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., number of peopleemployed and the other estimatesdrawn 20204. A check or money order made out so the Superinten- from thesesurveys probably differ from thefigures that would dent of Documents must accompany all orders. beobtained from a completecensus, evenif thesame question- Employment and EarnnMgsalso provides approximations of nairesand procedures were used. In thehousehold survey,the the standard errors for the household survey data published in amount of thedifferences can be expressedin teems of stand- this release. For unemployment and other labor force andenrans. The numerical valueof a standarderror depends categories, the standard errors appear in tables B through J of upon shesize of thesample, the resultsof the survey, andother its "Explanatory Notes." Measures of the reiability of the factors. However,the numericalvaluo is alwayssuch that the data drawn from the establishment survey and the actual chancesare approximately 68 out of 100 that an estimatebased amounts of revision due to benchmark adjustments on the samplewill differ by no more than are pro- the standarderror vided in tables M, 0, P, and Q of that publication. 16

HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA Tb M1. EftlllYlt dltb ofldo plpdafo kthudk Amed Foin tsf UnIdtd Stt, by on

__ _ _ - ___

._ __ _ O~~~~0c.| 505.v 0.c. t.c. Act. S.ct Oct. ccc. 0cc. 1985 1t80a 1980 085 tOO 1080 198 1900 1780 ...... 0

0,II III02. 0 1 12 II pnToosp a8 ...... 0..57*1° 0,3 8 c 0.5. I.5c02.55 1 0 ros~~~~~~~~s~8.0 0°7. oS. 5.0$ 05. 057 loS. 05. 215.t7s

01. 01.32 oyZ pnl cc . 0. F.070tsi *1. 00s.8i 02 * 01.1 s 01.2

...... 7i.... .5.0 -, c.3 . 1i0.1. S i 0.007l. 0 cs t 10 s2 cI c .1j5,St ~ ~ ~ c05, 107.070 02.72 100.99 1752.1 100.045 s 10.1jc~o cc,74

- SW.U.W-S.. 0.0 8o.0t8 I 2Mq 0.50 8.73 8788 009 01.0...0.7.8 7.7 1a3000.5.00 0.10 00910 00.2...... 2.....00...7 lcl

__ w ss is7.7s7i7.02 7.0 8.l8 0.i .28^5 5.2 0.*2 fi7ss ;7sssss^41.4 c~- _t F.00 s.tss0 0. 0. 0.70.90.80.8s0.3oX4X2 7 2 22

...... 07. S,300 S,3.2 Ss..1 8,020I .0 S S 0.7 ...... ~~0.W S O ......

W--. ------

#va- W80I3IIIsOW. -p80 M" 88 8..0187 0 : To" ; To| °; .cpO~f.8 -., _ .1_z -tIS A C0101t Pkaqolo iJII. * W. cO0- ci18 - P. W0020 - 0088 83008 P-a 0801 S-.,t~ *- - 0 tIIIIIII.cccv cn - cm 17

HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA T"ii A2. Empbyni statusof the cvilln ppul tion by ..and *gx

3C; DO . C.3 3.3 D; 8 SR5.. 3. t 433 RCLD.

Q hitt 4,ep .o ...... 00.Wht.3i33 tta 181.33 18i.S47 77,112 183.828 180.837 iI.1 5 *1.5L 18 C4 .+118.730 118,623 itO. 04 .i ...... 4...... 5.4 31-.333 ti8.t24 1 18.272 tig,3i4 it 8.47S 113.386 _P..a 4 . 4. * 65.3 6 .4 .0...... 4 65. E.V3W...... 40.3 i32 tt.4S2 tt0.6S7 U 4t.i 60. 60.4 40. .. 40.8 0 ...... 7.7t7 7.-72.7.44 .0.3 3.3 3.. n...... 0... 0.1.4 0,347 8.203 8.222 8.243 7.34 *.7 *.- *.3 7.0 .0 70 6.8 4.3 67

C L.43f tr 5A . .uoo.t.... .77 7t 78.3 78.373.77...... COOwibsnorSw 78.434 78,722 78.32 73.0 c 4...... 0,373 4t .434 *-.s44 40,S43 jo so 778 7. *-.2t8 *-.412 61.428 61.731 61.3'6 _~iip43, 8.i 7 . 7. 30 7 . 34...... 7...... 270.7 t.nkIpW ...... 0..t 4.8*3130 .. 1 733 736 2,115 2.243 2.123 3.280 2.104 83003t3tE1S1848.4.32 2.284 2.2.7 304 2.235 3.733...... 3~S55.87555 33443i5 55.400 34.321 SS.233 55.5503 55.;1Z ...... 3.12 3.4 3.1 3.617 3434 3.8. 3.4 UrPnn 3.82. 3.7 ...... *.C s. vo so s .3 s. . .

31711133wn0nA4bn.7 ...... 3808...... 5 07,833 8.07 84.383,7.73 37.4807.77 07.834 3.016 C3linh ...... 4.....I Pa33tp.81,ro.3 ...... 33,3 0 48. 4 47.34 43,923 8 ...... 33.2 34.2 .... 3 45.7 55.1 37 35 35.7 35. 8 7...... 45274 4 35533 546 4-.234s7 45. 44.20 4 .. 44, 5 AoE .jW1014331.7.37.0 30.3 w...... 32.8 5-.4 32.4 32.3 32.4 5Z.4 3.5 83010111631tt10t.31.3...... 4, S 40 4 5 4 752 43.888 4354 4 1 4 6 7 5 s444.248 33.3 3 45,281 44.407 45.,382 45.437 p, .2.3...... 2.757 2.84 Z.344 5.075 2.3 4 5. 2.74 2.77 235 U ntJ8 ...... 1 S.5 42 6.3 4.1 6.2 *.- *. 4.3

Oht ...... Oop..fo..... Ctnil02toa3333 .4.4741.4.476*4.271455714.474 4,33 7 4..58 4.3 7.370 7.511 l7.377 14.553 7.372 7,355 7.840 7,391 7,82 7,837 a 53.3.t _1113 33.3 34.4...... s54 34.0 35.0 34.5 53.8 6,022...... 4.OZ135 *4.1I17 6.378 6.Z 4.475 3073437181i...0... *6.577 6,482 6478 4.2.2...... 4 3...... 0 041 8 .7 44.7 45.7 44.5 44.5 330131ft5.030811 14 53 277 252 3 27...... 3.8S .740...... 3.76 sso46,101 ....4, Z76 251 38S8I8. 6,203 4,324 4,2143 4.227 ...... *42. nn. t 4...... 44 '44 1447 1,3 ...... 1 .3 8. 5 0 0 85 17.7 18.2 17.3

wn0*0 no _lt In0j3 m MO~uh 02883a0.0 847 303..8 0083mn . 088 5738.8 00021 1081 70 or, ag .011. 1Q88Y 18

HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA Table A-& Empomns siatus of tto emilen population by re., sex, age. and Hispanic origin

I NOn. T Sy. T.I on. tI O Ig p. 0o1. t . 1 19854I984{.901 1985 41 984 190. 194 195 4 1904

0010101904804180410.. , 54,079Z155,9759 154,1 854,32 .55,4S04 155.723 Sz155.8 155,979 154,111 Pw~~~lo888fl . 45.~~~~~~~'945.7 45.3 452 4. 50 54 4. 5.1 -3s90 -- 4.585 9'.555 94,088 94.449 94.177 94,000 94,147 94.20I 94.535

,b .4 ...... S . 5,704 5.9 5,5 4,;048 5,5945 15 ,50 7 5.9707 ...... 0 4. 4...... 0 5.

c88Sn438 . 452,80 55.930415997 53,049 53583° 51.727 53.578 540154 50172X ...... 5..2 5.1 5.3 5.1 5.5 3.4 5.40 5.4 5.3 _ . . . . 38308.1 783.5 783.50 78.4 783.24 78.4S 78.j3j 398.0 78.8

w .S...... Ohs~lposd.2.750 2. 748 2,874 2,702 274 2,88255 2,912 2,924 2,887 Ullll38,78559.093...... " 3883 38.43 32.4I 59 1 I3.3I I3,4I4 80~~~~13880 1,898~~~~~~~~~ 2,058 1,81 2.244 2,174 ~ '2,8 214 211 205 l d ...... 9 4.80 .5 5.5 .54Z Vlll...... 1. .I.21 I 8S.; 1 4 I.Z ISI IS.Z 15.74

* 14 4~~~~~~~~...... ZzS9.*Z,Z:952,5 9O8Z.5 ~,58jZ Z l~oz 3818 ao. 388893w...... 53. 55.2 0.8.8 3.457.9.8...... 2 48.4 3 5.0 57.3

W.5...... 9 18 98 ,00...... 45 58.94 5.01S107 9.04

BAK- ...... 3.01 .S; 11.5" I$Z INZ 1,3i IZ9 31. . 1 Th1800llo3810000lw f80080 8 19,819..0,120 28,152 19,818 28,0281 20,04 2,88 201:20 20:,152 90888808.54.40818801a101in~ ~~~...... 2~. 12,35 2,95.4 02,588:3.2. 12,559.....54.51 I12,55....55Z54 ..55.20 I2421,2... S5 SZj Zj5.21. 55.1 7 55.08Z.04 PIP8008S1088 4. 43,1 425 4. 427 4, 3.3 432 -3. 7 I h 0 ...... 104...... 1 1...... i 1,704 1078Z9 1, 893 1 1 1,95748 8189~l4ll901.0383818301 33, 344. 54,. 3...... 3.1 53.5 14.2310. 5.2 I 54. N94b1109-.130188300380 51.9. 5.9. 7528...... 514 527.57 52.9 52.31 s 523 5...... 89...... 84.2 13,8 1 , 30 1 . 44 1. 42 1 .

...... Zf 8 Z Z Q 3 S 9S.2 . 6 . 1 Z . 0.00b3 b -tCff.l ...... 1 10 11W 7...3,831.5..32.5,813 5,083 5,904 5,832 5,934 5,947 Utd- ...... 34 6 7 7 3 3 35 33 31 p01818 .7....2..74.0...8 733 744 7. 4.4 744 745 7.5 E8P8 ...... 3,044 5,09 5,239 3,04I 511 5,1 5,153 5,171~' 5,24

Obo.1V0980 732 742 483 749 775~~~1 790 779 163 703 ...... 92,5 11,5 13.2 15, 134 31 12.9 11.8 101.3981590381388808 4.795 744.2 3s4.1 4.24 49. 48.7S 79.54 ,48.7 487. O~l5Clpf4k5...... IZ.I III.O ZS0I.Z37II.: 3ZSSI.X

ftvw1880108582 59.7 50, 382 50,4 588 '9. 583 58, Ss91osad.5,149~~...... I i 5,238 5,8251 3,108 5,112 5.15 517 5,280 5,8

E. 883900800 1, 12,4 11;,1 S1,4 12,5: 12,4 12,3 1253 ...... I2

P01088000180379 5, 3 4 42.1 38.3 40.9 41.1 38,3~ 38,0 1013888980 449 ~~~~~~~~400. ~~~~~49527 494 538 544 539 542 E08...... 09 28.8 23.3 122,4 25. 2.1224.3 25 .1 25.3

019238350110100 2,4 35,0 34,8 41,7l 40.3 3. 358 34.0 4, .810 41...... 2.... 34.5 35,23 42.7 41. 30.9 33.8 70 3,

...... 12,112 12,505 32,4I 211 123 7 32,3- 24 9 125 5 1 ,4

P00110153180191008. 43,8 '4.0 45.7 44,2 45.4 45.8~~~~~~~~~~134582 4. 4.3 438013980.4,923 7,474 ~~~~~~~~~4,4 ~~~~~7,4047,248 7,28 7.345 7.497 7.444 41018384398d ~~~~~~~~777 ~~~772829 803 882 89 155 39 81 ...8108508118110 0,0 84 1. 0.3 10.8 108 1. . 05 . . 011b0 f 1 - t H304.33.000and 9.01131. 018019 wMll 80 - to03o1-00 'T, pwAflo t tn tt btlo 0801018_ ww1a81:8, 88011.808, t8dl104 NOT800180-108. . . isw,4..w- 13801uW..d soof_ InaQ~ttd 81 . baotstat It 0l I80008 81 agO909 818.09133d olansolo. ago IlotudW CMW C81401810tt0hth00801 d 80108310100 9 80013 tdll4 1 tc0t8tt8t i. ofytmtt _aonhdp,818 201 - -00 aho80 ttttd 08M t09h ttSh. 138 19

HOtS1OLD DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA TWO " IeI trd a is m Indicators

-=o~~~~6.883s .

C_3 C~~~~~.22.002 . 0.2. 0.0. ^9g 4. 422.Cst. 2... 275. 2985 2986 1986 285 29062984&19962 9361996

CHAACECW

0222882880882,98784 ...... 588 08.94 110.7220.067209.7220.292 30.432 MwobC.nws.pof.o . 27.242 27. 9S4 27.895 26.777 27.388d 27.2497 27,3723° 27.7353 270.4007 V083 l _8 .. 5,965.5...... 55.7 5.832 5.926 6.0,6 6.042 6 .005 MAJOR_NU7TY MD CLASS 0F WORKER

68069w 9922789344a |2 7 7 2 t369st 174559262919 3252;

88o8..w .. 97.260 9I.2 99N.430 96 .922 . 9 8.6 99.*64 5.0 t..9 80,844 82,426 82...... 140 17721 8,591 92,507 82422 2, W 9PIIdb82.2.2...... 2 2,289 ...... 7 .722 .38 .675 79. 94 80. 8. 8688...... 30 8.229 .532 . 7.837... 8.292 8.098 7.927 7.956 7.939 7.993 0.-7 0 ...... 8,056 2...... 254 243 24 2 275 25 252 23 PERON ATWO02 PART T3RE,

PW923r289 ...... 2 5505 5.47 544 5 5740 .563 5.5 ...... 2.24 25 2.50 2. 5 2.47 2.472 24 2 0 2.444 005090326388 60...... 72015' 2,546 2.758 2.8587.742 .77, 2.826 2.724 2,867 V, .4.8...... 85 I.4 7 2 5 4.805 4 0 21,1 3.922214.17 41,02 21 13,77

P89608098O.9202.m ...... 5.1272 5.127, 5.226 5.292 5,269 5.303 5,450 5.3129 5. 342 Sf28005 ou 2.256 2.409 2.0155 2,2435 2.,27, 2.247 2,274 2,366 2.206s Vdud l9383 lhl O 1..204 24,759 94.448 23.29 23,606 213.520 25,736 20.567 20.455 _ I _ _ _ KID1, 0 .b-n 4 V _ 837,7 phr b 2: 5 o7 8,._ 02a, 5t 2 .Oh 4- _ 0288895F08.50503883 D0.2 3 I268c

Table A. Rangeof unernpoinnatm asures based onvarying defbtitlona of urnmpoynman and seasonally adjutedf the labor force,

I d7tr

12 1.5 1.1

023. 004. 087. 01.B 1. 1. 11l C7h......

U41.W Jl ffibon~8. l o llv crith 1 O7 anc...... 5.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.3 L3. p83- 2 6988 89 98 IS 2 0 20221t .90_ 8851905 1102 1 .h4~ ...... 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.4 S-4 5.5 5.5 5.2

...... 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.3

_ At_ rF ...... 7.0 7.0 7.0 6.0 6.0

1 Td l~~vdo~dlhoeW_1i~~h~e ...... 7.2 7.2 7.2 6.9 6.9 6. 6 9 6.7

a17IW...... *.5 s.3 s., 9.4 9.3 9.2

6.2 0v 711 .11 ...... 1604 10.4 20.5 IC.2

IIA-_n .no a. 70 02088290032 7038032.0_0- 20

HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA Table A4LSelected unemploymnnt Indlcator*, easonally adjusted

0. *-oea

.r ...... 00. 0 . 9. S . Oct . 00 . 0.0..

TOoo al.909 . w. 0,104 8...24 7,95 7.0 0.9 7.0 0.9 0.9 6.0 U ao .7. .11 4 7 . . .0 7.070 7.0. 0.9...... U000Cnss. c.. oer...... 0 Wobln6ynnoo.080370 ...... 0,070 ...... 9.003 5 ...... 510 0 .5 0.9 00 0.0 0.9 0.7 womro,0y900010. .... 0.0.. 2.900 2.,5 6.4 0.00.2.101 5. Ooen_6oOOn..oIOgO.0...... 0.*491 0.440 IOS,.... 090O 0.0 00.5 00.0 00.2 10.5

Ucg 0 8 ...... I.00 I.90 I,22 4.3 4.2 4.5 4.0 4.5 4.3 OAOOI8O 0 8.0...... 4 4 I.42 9 I.0 0 4.4 5. 5.I .0 S.0 4.0 W001 . mIi88.. .01n ...... 00 OS * .0 10. 9.9 9. 9.0 9.0

On00000 dm00g50cenl19000n . ..- .C S. -s o., 4.70 7.9 0 0. 7.0 0.4.

s . I14.1s 0000099 n ...... ss000...... s7ISO -S0301 10.27 10.0. 19.9s 04.s 04.0 4tz0000010...... 1 704 954 034 12.4 124- I.910s.0 05.0 IS 0 900oso20409 ...... 10.s00 I .S4 1,504 0.0 0.9 7.0 7.3 0.0 69s 9 1 O...... 9...... 0 940 7.5 0.0 0.5 7.2 0.0 0.4 90o. ..ooa...... oood..... 040 09 03 0.0 0 7.0 0, 00 0. 5.0 . 020...... 702 290 .0.5.2 0 4.4 4.0 5a ... 00.72 02.4..4 ...... I.2 1. 7 .7 75 7 7 7 7 .1 0...... 0- 5.4 5.4 S I nm- 5lO . 0 ...... 0 1SI 3 0...... 5...3. 6 0 910 ...... 5I.5 1 7 2 0 0 7 030 2 9 1..0I......

Unollpympnlnn 00910o7100 e500411.100000008 n880f 08080 0000980130110 .11.001.4 900 00r003hun

Tabl A-. D...... i r unemployment.. .

0.0. Nov. 0.0. 0.0. 009. 5009. 000. 90v. 0r.0 0980 1906 0900 lOBS 0900 0900 0906 1990 9086

s..o _ao...... 3.0 50 3.000 2.902 3.400 0.400 3.403 3.408 0.302 3.35S Oofb4..8...... 2.507 2.S90 2.440 2.407 2.400 2.52- 2,500 2.600 2.000 ts"o_.8.o40o0...... 2,000 0.994 2,0402.209 2.7722Z.0002.000 2.210 2,000 090020.4 ...... 940 ....904 ...... 9S4I.30S05I.008 0 .000 9S0 0.0-5 0.023 0Tso7..*..... V ...... 1 ...... 0,0 5 I0.0S0 1,092 10,204 ,0 1.29-90-894.808 10.200 1 2r.072 0,049t Aontm0.w.0n ...... d...n...oo...... n....48w-0. . 03.5 05S.01-9,-0 05.4 03.2 05.0 5. IS.S 5204. 0 0.0 MIn220U001Ic..... , . ....0.2 ....6.0 ...... 0.5 s6.07.0 7.0 7.07.00.

T04000800900980 100..0. 000.0 0.0000.00190.0 000.000o.3 000.00 00o.0~~ O L8.00980 ...... 39.0 60.7 39.042042Z.3040.0 40.9 40.2 42.4 000970405...... 30.4 00.0 52.7 30.0 29.7 50.4 00.531 0.0 00.2 09co_...... 20.1 25 3 ...... 20.4 20.2 20.0 20.5 20.6 20.0 20.4 9500211_ 0...... 2.2 000s ...... 02.0 02.4 03.200.4011.0 02.0 02.0

070_sso4...... a^ 1Sf80X. 1.o 4808778059.00 *bo.des 21

HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA Table A, Reason for unwaploy Fe.10

o,,- , S *

A_ Dre~~~~4*.004. 008. 0.3. 449 SOwt. 034. 4404. 0 4983 480 4884 4805 4804 4b88 1,04 4084 4884

0 -.- -. .2..07 .2 2,87 2.78 2, 2.8....1 4 .0.2 2. 2I..84 2.8.. .0 ...... JoblnS.04 43I.080 2 8 2 880 4.4 4.0-128-.8, o7 Z4,5 , O ,.. 4osI.030.078 .7 ...... 2.00 OSS s. 2.25, 2.4. 2.448 2.4.0 2.4 2.0, 800.02N D T 4 875 800 1.0-2 4.044 4.0S0 82 1.070 4.015

T ,0ooW0I . 143.4400.8 70. 100.0408 0.4 308.0 404.8 4000o 400 4888" 52.- 47.8 52.0 40.8 47.4 40.8 48.7 40.4 408^ 0,4070 48.4 1 2.545 48.8 43s2.7 42.4 15.1 43441 .S

...... 20 0 25 24. 27.4 22.. 23.8 24.0 25. 25.4 4 ...... 2 0.7 2.7 2. 2. . . 2.

4.00. .8 I9 7 . 0 . 8 . . 8 o l ...... - 5.2 . .- .5

...... 7 _ .7 .8 ...... 8 .8 .04 4.08000f0o...... 04.. 8 . a 0

Table A4. Unermplwed pesons by sex en a.. seaoosafly adbustod

OF, ~_z

000. 004..D. 03 . .... 5.73..0....004.0.3

73000.40,[email protected] 0.4 781 7.0 0. 7. 5 .1 0. 5 sI 5

401004,004.0,438 3.80 2. 8 4 .4 2- s7.840.4 8 2

078048.008 .080 ..428 3242..2 51 49.0 20.0 48.0 20.. It.o...... 700 17 407....0.7.2 14. 40.4 04240 1 o 24. . 4,405 4,458 8,027 40.7 30.3 44.4 40.5 30.2 40 7 5 ..... 5.034 5.240 4,4 8.5 84 5.0 55 5 558...... 4..47 4.030 4.422 5.7 . 5.0 5.7 S. 550,-8...08.....5 .. 574 524 0.8 4.T0 4.47 3

48,00400.08 . .434 *.57- 3.408 0.0 0.0 7.8 7.0 4. . 4100o44.043. 4.078 4.055 4,423 43.4 40.3 43.3 40.2 s401.- 4ao0000.00784 754 7004854 .448s.440 21

M808 10.8 ...... 2, $3 2.809 2 5. 5.4 5.5 5.

250810043 . 2.080 2.508 2.442 5.5 5.4 5.5 4.7 5.7. 1 .40 .... 134...4.05 . 4.4 4.2 3.4 4..0

10102048 .4.75 . . 3...0 15.0 03....2 42. 2.0 2 .7 42. 41088,0048700 083 448 40.S 40.7 1 7.7 47.2 40.21s 1,0.t0.304 w.....8...... 4703 U J2328.404...... 20.50.8 .8.7 4.840.048..4 30 0 404 ...... 4...... 7.2 5.4 . 4. 7. .0024...... 7 77 74 40. 2 4 4 16_ u ...... 043. .. E 2.305IDntI 2D2,278 .52 5.7 X .4 .55 5.47 12... 10 450 . 2.05 21D0 14.84 8.8 5.0 5.8 4.7 5. .0 .0 ...... 3...... 0 22

HOUJSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA To 0,O. EMOPiiinn sbtauSO Maek mod as o

8CC. C*C. I_" O. DC. ow..¢.AU . S. C. l985 85 *984 Is90 *90 9984 9984

2..75 25.385 25.434 2.,X S 2572* 2 .274 25.3. 25.35 25.435 Ck-l*._.dMkVA.Wp~p ...... 9495 Is5.4o *4149904I 5 I .78 *5.57 I407 I.4 I4.92 i 43.2 45.2 43.7 433 494 4.0 38 4. a~~~a ~~433 4.0I; I*4.9374,97 ...... 3.477 *4.993I 4.,200 :3.,55 *3.04* *3.944 55.7D 55. 55. 55.0 5S.9 55.0D 5Z.3 55Z.79 5. D*d79,907 2.0n5 1D.273 1.05 9 2. S. 2,059 2,055 *2.7 *2.7 9. *3,89a *~~~.....::...12.8 *2.2 *9.- *3.5 *3.9 *3.1 9.247 9.202 1.98 999.2 9 tom3.049no...... 095s 9.294 9.37* 8.999 0 -.P0.M 30 8 8*080944 P*0999P*9.098 -Th PW.p90- "*0 iaoid 0b~ - M d0080ld89W *ChM. -.0Y9.

Ta A.11.Occupail"l of til- .nIp -d And uokyi4 nos Dltya4outdW

080a ______

c . 0 .3 CD. 0 e. 0.0. 0D*.

6.74 4.3 T*ol510V ...... 13 lDo.se. *.7177,461 548 584 2.0 2.9 _000909 0 1TC408S.0 24...... 239 27.325 *2,049:2. 293 237 2...... 012127 2 .2 b00nd49.939*00.ilW*i*.207 297 I.8 2.0 9*08008890 .97...... *3.943 94.457 255 9.429 4.2 3.9 T ro ...... 3, 997 35.0...... 49 09 8 0 * ' 3.5..4.3,330I s,30 I.,904 *07..3.9..3.9...... T.Co 584 4.7 4.9 8CkbC _*in *3...... s034 93.50 435 728 .9 C.9 S*995098jC t93S 009 . l n l *cl...... s7,59597.033 745 1.450 9,502 0.9 8.0...... 0.9*3009*8099t ...... 95.707 ;I94.884 N 1 355 ....99. ...72 .... 4.0 . ... . :/ M * l*dO . *..... :1:.:1: so 19 - 9 .9...... 0 92,024 ,w270s .. K5 pl8no...... 4089C.*.909ISd3C 8 12.001 *3,9...74 93,*44 1.022 945 9.2 4.7 P9090338t89,0*t10C80 234 s.3 5.2 _Mnub .990009* *, 4.s30 4.282 245 ...... 8 4...... 4.25 5 82 9.7 0.9 258 244 4. | S2.55 O nl ...... _ 0.947 4..2.2 2.043 93.4 s9.0 - .0*...... *4f_|_8.7 ...... 97.020 ...... 2,023 307 074 98.3 99.2 _ _na ...... 7.35 7.403 *5099*W*79* 0. 4.47..4,S2 448 444 9.9 0.8 Tdmho*88080* 749 92.8 93.7 _ _ d o_988.*3.***C*80*WS,*S*8U3,8*S n *.5754,41 4,479 s44 208 29 2 ,24. o i 448.458 *74 Ciooa9n *9.2 -97 OUS9W~~~a8,0q4~~8*300I0UW9,4...... :*flS0: 3.'927 3,02 495 533 9.4 9.1 F. y ~ : 2,884...... 2.8 2.092 so0 288

* PF'9*3 o o o d .o8d'a 3dl9P9 23

HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA Ts AI m tans o mobaVbbmwa ----mad i -V.bys ae t baaoas0 edjd

Cks.~ ~ ~ ~-_ _° "~ ~ ~ ~-- 3. P~~~~~~dW.~ ~ ~ ~ ~ .5

*TWK Wd"_...... : :. 7.474 7.792 7,344 7.256 4.764 4.901 St. * 5 5.4 4. 4 .424...... 4,334aX 4.3 7 4 .043 5.83S 5.72 34 32 5l.l 5.3 N334 3:~~~~~~~Z's0 3.24 *90 '.a0 13 5010X~n 1 7 2 57 3.074 2.*744 2.330 2.402323 037 74 5.7 5.2. 40M. ... 3.wSZ 2.432 3.44 2..03 3.777 2.203 43 3 4.3 T".3 y ...... I1.Z43 3473 CC I.213 330 .130 4. .. .7 2.3

T7U3C33 n ...... 17.707 33.34 34.333 3.443 35,4CC 314.:02 .05 - S.4 S XW15_n ~~~~~5.35704 3,704 5.4203 4733s 55507 247 50 S. 5 .4 4433, 4.34...... 4.287 4.34 4.012 3,05 3,335 208 17 S.l 4.4

3070.33.. _3 73on C -e 33 _ot~h hni04., FC,. 5 . d O Fot. otI~ud 33. n3.3 3 101113 C 44C 3 03ol3. CC Ihc4C o ALI3 331 .3S.Vd t *0L I4aw. us.mcn .7.ar.n .._ w d hIIC Ann 3.83da,, lo30CCCt33310 Dcl 533543030.03 3c33CCC3C.IC3 24

HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA T*We Al3. Employmen status of the cIlian population for In her States

1_ _ _ _ _ T . -~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.~~~~~ s-_ I -,;., I -;;; I -,;.; |I;m8; I -m; I I '.,.1;; | ;;; |I 9;

27_..... 20.1559772 20.292 25.222 00,042 20.082 0.25 00.255 20.12021§ n93.~ l".. 0.05 23.5 23.*1 t30822.552 23,0* 23.230 23,204 23.020 23.308 _20889 20.223 20.585 20.420 22.X088 22.402 00,200 22.53 20,558 22,48 _ . , 682080 838 843 I83 880 927 I 2I8 01 2048882 *. .3 6.3 8.36 4.7 .4.8 4.2 4.8 4.8 0

Os28we2889,08j17 *. 502 .224 9.266 5.047 5.282 5,202 9.023 9.222 9.260 0s 1 7 D 5,052 5.892 5.710 5.380 3.823 5.540 5.858 5.208 3.700 _W '''' ... 5.3092 5.3257 5.406 5.082, 5.02 5,2304 3.340 5.380 5.437 2*084 330 023 243 ~~~~~~~~ 336 ~~~~ 330 ~~~~ 30 ~~~~~~25932 8

. W101...... , ,, ,* 1 6 6 .50I 8 .075 8,677 I.88 8 5.83 8 68I O5.485 b R @5 65.2532 5 6 5,283 5.895 5.035 5.040 _ ~~~~~~~~5,2075.021 5.235 5.280 5.248 3,083 5,220 5.222 5.232 _4H 472 352 352 488 488 477 425 027 425 20 9 .. 0.3, 4.9 2.0 8.8 8.2 8.3 2.5 I.4 0.4

2 W 088 4.544 4.595 4.403 4.584 4.50 4,553 4,550 4,559 3.403 C~ ...... 064 3.02 3.0851 3.040 3,218 3.003 3.049 3.019 3,004 E 1 0 t~~~~~~.5430.902 2.989 2.938 2.558 2.555 0.550 2.530 2.383 Cl__1i_...... 2...... 22.7 98 220 2223 228 28 25 0 4.8V~t00 ...... 3.9 - 3.4 , 4 ..2 3.94 .2 3.5,0 3.

O . ~~~~~~~4,3554.43 70.02 4.020 4.348 4.009 2,440 4,405 *.508 _5 . 4024* *0.20 0.230 4.002 3.590 3.978 2.052 4.202 0.25 0 _.8 ... 325 359 '340 '343 '358 35 300 328 352 2 ...... 7.6 8 .0 7.6 72.0 6.0 0.9 8.4 8.4 2.9

_ L W _ 5.524I 5,543 35.920 I 3.52I 3,952 59511 I30 5 031 530 _ _ b ~~~~~~~3.0453.902 3.804 3.5886 3.97 3.938 3.858 3.933 3.903 _88~ 3,637 3,7433.73 3,7tX3,740 3.43,3,830 3,704 3.150 3.0 3.740 3,738 20895a . .. 5.4 3.9 5.8 0.7 .7 3.5 .,4 1.3

C _ _ _ _ [] 7~~~~3.0523,229 23.254 23.705 23,735 23.739 23.740 23.245 43.734 a_|S t _ * 44~~0.28 8.402 *.458 8.077 *.4 8.0*45 2,388 *.320 *.054 _85.. 7.9049 72.57 7,358 7 ,930 7.847 72.937 7.529 7.9^90 7.5059 1__...... , .13 ,1. -6.4. . .0. _ ...... ,, 500 050 040 543 495 522 485 080 307

Cb _ X,662 *,77~~~~4:204.777 0.052 4,748 4.755 4.780 0.770 0,2777 0 _L 1 1 0 _ 7,1.101 7,],3209 3.225 3.294 3.295 3.294 3,285 3.220 _3,057 3.022 3.030X 3.007 3,028 3.002 5.035 3.027 3,007 ...... 5.2 5.0 I, 0.4 5, .0 5.2 5. ,

'-_ ...... 8,080 8.208 0.22 8.000 8.09 9 8.205 .20 8.222 Cftek I .... . 3...... 1.01 . I.l.. I, 287 5.,01200 5.280. '5.290 _ 4,~~~~~~27220.852 0.839 4.749 2,740 4.720 4,803 0.987 2,872 .. ... 034 398 428 437 402 438 002 379 2 298 .. 8.5 7.3 2.5 8.0 8.2 9.5 7.7 7.2 2.9

024t98 ... 5.22 5,244 5.287 5.292 5,290 9.280 5284 5,288 5.287 a ...... b W X.~5,55 5.542 5,439 5.530 5,052 5.433 3.559 5.457 5.455 _0 . ... 3.235,3 5.229 5.292 5.202 3,270 3.342 5.000 5.229 5.280 9 _9 405 332 250 032 375 392 353 348 275 ...... 0.37.3 8,80,0. 8.74.7 7.07.8 9,04.0 4.88.0 9.54. 5.50.3 73.2

C~ l af _ _ 12.906 22.90 22,096 22.904 .3 .00 I20 22.380 22.994 O_I~~~~l~~t ~ 7,500 8,025 8.254 '0.00 8.008 8.430 8.42 8.245 0.333 = 7 7.8 7.575~ 7.8 0.3279 7,400D 7.40 7.082 7.507 L%-- ~~~~~~~7,4855 72 2 5 I74 7.0 282 784 798

- - 0 F- 25

HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA TabieA-t4. Pe_. nol In lab1 foare bJy _, ax, and a, q.au aweS

4770._.48m77 35 - , _ 1 7 * 5 7 SS S S .s

__ ~~~~~~~,5 098 798 19 ...... 4OD 98Js4 07 s

_ .W .0__...738...... 7 0 I 13.05 .048 8.1075 0 1 4 4,374 1.1745 4,53 4.78 833 T__Z _ 1 2F 20.773 2 1554 20.225 - ...... ~~~~~~.847 2 .040 2 4.80 20.428 >__|7.SI>|._ 1~~~~4.7852 S.9I O 2... I , T 07 24.838 2479 2S84.48. 24172 24.000S2 ...... S... S 74 5 . .457 7.Z7 08 . 3.447~55 3.48 4,38 4.82 4,41 4.52 4.48

.- _ _I-_b~~~~~~~~~hg~0- . .4...... 73 I.S.0171 854 885 890 2. 79334 .0744

0 _,_ 745 ~~~~~~744 792s 744 747 708 851

T...... g11_ ~ _ ~~~~~~~~~44h - 4 0432 4 .941345 34.5 5 9 9.8820.58 5.980Z44 0.382177

._...... 3 .378 1. 3 .4 4 37 7 2Z

1__83Z I.Z77l7 1 2 0. oo.1l.5, 1 20l 1 71sI Z0220I C,, 73.429 18074 7.4 Z78,5 .3a, .1* ...... s a.11 3f~0 71431 783827 0405 O.__Ibo a ~ ~ ass *s4Z *.5 5.4 7 .8"45 S ,994 190 1.948 2.03sO7 2.O02

T-__.bl, ~ ~ ~ 43 384 402 *044 0__ ~ 18.74 480 71 275438 5s 149 438 397 427 497

'~~~~~~~~~~~~~~5 434 48 412 ...... 75 7 l.O Z 478 398 490_w_rd f__lq§,__._- 3 8 1 4 5 70 94 13 4.34 293 'm 2,~0 4.854 42 233 42 4S

...... 739. 74 84

,. _ _ 551 5|e sss '7 &$3 *60" 'Sd1~~~~~~~~~l. 26

ESTABLISHMENT DATA ESTABLISHMENT DATA Table B 1. Employes on nonagrlculturl payrolls by Industry t -n_1-a77} . as - - T "S _ 7- -I I69§842_.4 42.0...... 0cc, 94. . nol . _. .968..10 1 00.262 100,.62 00.826,.606 .065 .06 .920 1954699,- 60625956 06.876I 101§1 To-l ------2198 1985 6 , 84,364 86,4661 84,660 62,286 29.365963,066 83.956t64,66 3O36684648. 92,686 64,954 24.656 26,866524.695 04,930 23.296 25.106 26.820 26.977 24.868 c62420843284064 . 3.4,01 036 96 753 763 7461 703 72I 62 .1 60O 036 622 423 626 5 ,000 5,271 5,643 49 32 6 78 10125 5,060 I5,006 ,99 6,296 n6,72 6,306 1.305 '.30 6oew,8604,6066640660c640n --- 6--,276.0 6,360. 61.337,3I .267,2_ 267 1.306 19,682 69.289 169.2369.625 69.2I6 69.69 I 3 ,070I "3 61 6 62,9761 1 62960 62,92 62.220 11,360 I6I,298 69,,20 166302 66126 66o266 11283 D~c2,0t46268 -j .11,238 6.299 11,461 7,232 7.43317.56 7,669 0,494 7.62 7.599 7,658 6400206 8...... wd. 7,58..2 7,476 760 4 .64.26.862 ... .. 496.9 750.3 75 710 109 736 0I37 F7C~bewweec 313oi I 73201 86640626860,00462783. .. :::! I 496.8 503.5 586.0 193 590 594 590 590 loo "I44*§ lo 769loI 713l 70,7ac17c9666600666tI27602cc6600.060862 ..1 69,083796.61 63~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~,03763.0 043.2 273 711 109 064.6~u0040 dlcl.04. 7 1026206.62066298.51 064.3 6243,6 6i456 6.0 6.47l9i3o36.629T3 6.409 6426268400206-.. .I .659. 6.039,0 6,637.2 F46I22 0.036 21205,,240.2c2664ic4------126 36.52,030.27 2,032.0 2.033. 0.233 2.272 0.4 2.73 2,666.0 2.163.9 2.182 2.66 01.62 2.667 2,161 76247000046060706 - -- -. .62 ,006.9 I .980.8 84'il6.078723 639 8365I 3 I 80 I857 72,037 2.0 3,6 763 9--36.051 409.0 766.0 725 713 713 709 6266068560664222r714c4u46 367. 56a7 396 969 569 265

7,206 '.66,837.8028 7.,806 7.8634 7.8502 7,876 7 .85j 7,926 5,166 36..-62--662-0--2. . s.59 1,176 5,505 5631 1,12 2 1519 p6002c74070,0490wd n 5911:3 6.66 611,666.86 1,641. 1 .621 6I62 1 64 1 666- 6I654 Ui 66.0 64I 59 60j 99 66 o co 4...... 66,0 60,6 l 72002 702 066 709 766 717 6 5 000 T.,66624666620..cw6 1. 702.3 766.6 6,2619.2 6,66119.66.630 6.678 6,660 6,663 6.513 686: 665 696 696 691 72w460020622 84,62066 665 696.432 '697.6 61,498.66,I 104. 1,I 7 .49 1 6,485 6,9 166.l93 -G6..c' 2- 25------: s6 ' ' ':4 I,020.6 6,'020.1 6,0391 6.06 6.21 I,05 I6,023 * 352.66169 163 662 666 660 875 609 8662620 616c662624968216640006 ... 793.6 I 37. 609.0 796 796 797 I 5,1656 I 62 666 652 636 656 696 75.903 65,395 75,702 05.966 7, 70~ 24,769 6 0,657 5 6,69 6 9.369 5,207 7.525 5,366 5.366 9,066 ...... - 7...... 6.. 27,3' 39" 8 0 3,656 9.066 6.062 3.086 9,096 3,6l5 Fr~~nsiwanaF77fishi~a. -- - - I 3.0600,69--12 ' 3,4614 71 60 0 6 .66 02.5 0.252 2921 2,228 2 220 2,233 41,030 £704606006066040,0~606oI,66ti ~ 2,2361 2,0222 56 9 4.860 5.859 5,964 5 ,664 W~on6S50278006827600c000702206 ...... 1l5,8. 667,5 5,868666.71 6 3,66ss73.9 660 3,469 3,695 3,669 0,49t2 .. 5,0-1359s 3,492 6,466 006866240028Chr...... [. .F..bl.....029024 . 6 2.3751 2,369 42,78 0,376 2,325 0,570o 5600,2266689000 2.3561 0,596 2[3,004 6 5 990 ,80 67,6022 66.030 68.065 66,663 66,686 62*604224 .- . 68,2061 68,697 656.627220,609.6 ,367 6,338 26,62 2,379 2,359 12,665. 12.390,4 Gsrera~nehanai~z01es 05,040.7 2,8720 2,9565iI 2.95ToI I 2 2.3 0,I96 6.I970. 79,5956. *5,972.1 5 806 9.923 9.966 9,362 6,005 066,4020006.0,6640cISCO 5,749.61 5,987,0 6,388 6,60 6,63 262, 308 06206,68n66,42283 -- .lnl 4,8 *3996,~ 6 ,5 6.099 6,364 1 3,26 3,256 3.053 3,690 3,200 3.212 3.22 6 6'966 6,668 6,952 6,962 1 71 1, 98 6 6661 6 .966i7 6,90 6 ,250 60,40,240 . I. 3 6,I2066.62174 6,220 6,226s 2,22 32,993 . s6,66 6,226 302623862 . 6 I 056 03452 64 23.46622.306 03.293 03,300 23,359 23,66 946483 .. .. 20,3691 6 6,99. 6,436 6,648 6,863 4,908 6,807 .s 4, 6 56.5 4,9357.2 80466224008.ie 611,684.96,763.0 6,624 6,463 6,649 6,600 6,690 3266654046629 6,'460.6,X677.6 3 617,636 66629 166,622 66,076 66,670 66,097 67,046 6l7,46 4366644443 | 166660| 0,88 4,9021 2.879 9 20,6 0,96 2,275 2 .90 2,696 4228686 . 3,969 3,259 3,969 -.. - 3,9761 i6,052 . 0,065 3,904 3,932 66062 6s0,25 .0 60.27 19,22 9,634 9,961 60.065 60,009 6W.40,6.6.... 9,9841 60,660 27

ESTABLISHMENT DATA ESTABLISHMENT DATA ;

Table B.2. Avergo weebly hours of production or folSOper.1sory workers' on priatS nonsagecultaral payrolls by Industry

i ioi H.g0118 *40.8 8.UrCn edyoed

0.0. 0 8. I .p6 . 000. Moo. _;1,sov9i6 [P vi cI; i38 D

nol~~~~~ip,,...... 3S.21 00.7 31.1 3.. , (2) *olal P...9lF ...... O .1 12 .2 (2) (2) (2) (a) (2) 00.2 1 22.0 (2) 1- (a) (2) 12) (a) (2) (0) Cmrukn...... "wonrbi...... 3 , 3.01 .3. 3.0 3.0 3.5 10 .1 oneie ...... 1 :1.0 2'101 2 '1. (.3 ((.0 daoodahomnDnb ...... 1: , 3.) (3.1 3.6 .3. 3.0 (21 10.81 01.0 1I .1 11 .3 (2) Stotte. and, ...... c. 11 . Z :, .:i 1.7I Fdntatilttaindtie...... 13 :; Otoea.iastpmtuct.Fllmealiotusxlln...... 7 ..ipt.d...t ...... Sssaltumcesistissietelp~...... 40.21 '08.8 Uatfllnato.,a6.ptIC~dCtf&IF~irl~i~smeiBpY uts ...... ioItInat and. iO SmuIpteI...... 11 .3 3 1 Ttalt~boltTansonaxonioln sulpmnt ieOOlttenl ...... ":4 Insttluelttt~tsatteta rdpnodt ... .u ...... *0.3 : 48:0 I~ *03.0 40.2 UI.O taneO uie...... - .-...... 38:8 I 02:2 11 -I (20 02 .0 0 .1 02.01 02.2 02.0 11 .3 oki7isp...... 06.8 (1.7 on%7I I3:'l (2) (2) (2 (2) (21 hu .nm...... 02.) I 08.1 11 -1 FYi rubh an Y uc ...... 130. 08.0 3 8.o *3.1 00.0 1. I (odmdts...... 7,8Food mitoklltdtad Tommmn2lltmuuctues(odottepn0t ...... 12 :. 1. .3 ~le 11 .1 29 .2 20.2 20.2 20.1 208.2 Faber,mi ~ll p~K ...... 11 Fontloao (Obii21ShmioO ...... (2.0 (2)6 (2) (62) (2) I .: 3 II, 2). Chmiant10SiSodaIl edOtooos...... 13 .. Q2) .toleu...... a o lp t ...... 12 08602.0 .0 08.232.0 02.008.2 *10.2a.0 *02.008.0 *02.I 11 .1

nnnfi and p.0)0ani es ...... 11 .3

3. .1 3. .1

21 .0 I I .I

Finance.la~naw27a andnsatU ...... 1 ym7kZi. 1- 1 ..

wOat ltciodooion tn amsottn 20minpInSod5 07.0.0202 o ~lhnOlnpmpk ottCuiP°m6*Tis80.1 is 1 P 002ii*m700ima~iPY ad(2.sdSl~ noa 2H..02 i072n i2U Otliltiefloth2lSe and OStahI0n*:00n2(1.0 I0.2,.n0.z. and nHaI astan andieeoie. Y Hbaaea~ape t3| .120e9lioleO OOSOISI Ooeeeotoupep aocun lot .opnoataO.I0loo i 0ol toatnolmne.. on p'liao. p. p0-lmln-00 oollaaticdStonaIbenooCll

79-018 0 - 88 - 2 28

ESTABLISHMENT DATA ESTABLISHMENT DATA

Table B4. Averle houriy and weekly aminp of production or nonasuperlsorywolkers on private nonagricultural payrolls by InduF" -

A..A. 9.99 43

3989 98s6 1986 7986 P 1989 986 966F 99s6 F

Ta iPly sa ...... 9...... 6. 9882.103,7^d.esd0...... 8.70.... 8 .E0 8.89 8.8 303.63 309.36| 300.99 309.96 -68 .0.6...... 1.3.13 -3.1 - .18 33.-

0C . . . 3...... 1 I I 2. 11 3.6 9.460.01- 300.21

...... 9. 9.72 9.77 9.66 606.16 396.99 00.97 1.3 .II m- 8- ... 30.3 0.28 30.33 30.44 699.3 304 6 629.03 42. 67 LW~nd~w~ou6S*.3s3.699768929208692633239...... 8.99~~~~~~~~:I ...... 9.9 ".38. 39 3.3 ".^9.43 33.6 398.§99.6 1 369.9331 9393 30 706 Fuqm.927383., .38 9.90 7.94 9.60 303.72 409.30 333.3. 333.60 63298~a~a~ds7...... woducoz ...... I 100131. . 113 . . '111...... r31. I2-.01 27I' P939397739387933 ...... 9..84 3984 3 3.9 33i..1 73 ...... 6 703.73943.30

Fbut82u89wu ...... 7 U80933hr7.-99.8401...... 0.09 30.3 30o.9 70.99 403.60 439.36 33*3.7 24905.13n E3697683932736s3709336943p99 3 8.69...... 9.70 7.76 9s.90 0490.. 397.3 6.03.36 634.04 T l 3 . .6 ...... 7 13.3 3.0 77.3 0. . .3 h9634998973639729437237 13.313 33.69 33.93 39.70 609.99 9l367.913906.3933 60.1 3.07

...... 63 61 4001. 3 0.73 | 09.73 333.73 Fooso23k1F~gu~h...... -...... 3.71: l M.:67 33^7.21 3 5.135.0 35. 9w C 1o 0 3 1.1.30 36.0 3.04 46980 73.7 63...... 7...... s.1

0..333 1m331ul .. ... 7.06 7.0..7 7.3.. 673.3 093.37 36.9 303.3 606*.723396.784 ...... 63u266 ...... 0 1 3.82 3.93 3.86 43.38 361.7 016.9. 3 91373 P8844933309000,238q 79 33.6l0 P92 9 a 2 l...... 38.03 30...... 03 i 0.3333.39 30.333.3 338.0490.0i 340490.2570 49.3 j2 733.36436.366 Ap" 3hrbu-Fz>l.. 1.1.4p...... S|..95. 2.61.|2.3.1 097.936887043384932631anoxlsimulPTn 4 I ...... 13211 16 67...... 38 3...... 643630.6 03 343 303.6636 906.3 939.76637.6 34773066 6.36 n1 t9 .33...... 76 9.90 9.96 36 04 060.66 366.96 373.03 L883938943.2068 ...... 3 9.70 9.99 3.99 600.96 037.86 444.47 04...... 33 98a898889840898628428387 3 33.69 33.07~~~~~~3.76 ~~~~~33660. 3 03.6 16636607

r__o6w38...8d__I_ ...... 9.38 .3.6 8.32 239.73 776.73 339.03 930.69

...... 2 ...... 1 . .3339 7

-S@ foonot 1, A... .2.

Table 84. Hourly Earnings Index for production or nonsupervisory workersx on private nonagricultural payrolls by Industry

41m7. 100)

697. 373. 277. 0~4. 694. 07. 379. S~p. 773 67 6.7. 377 3999 3986 39966 39862 3999- 3399 3986 3990 3986 7996p 3996R 3996- 39896 3399f6

C88822386818762.08 : 369..9.6 376.36 70. 37.0934 373.68.. 3) 367.7603..7 769.3 39.6D99.0 370.793.3 370.996.3 13.137.96;,.. 730.3 c86 . . 373~.3 396.0 333.3 s43.3 ,3.7 393.4 393.3 393.6 392.6 330.9 373.3 -.3 _...... 6 373.3 306.0 7 .6 37) 374.9 372.9 373.3 373.7 77.0 .3 W933M at 370.4 304.l26 379.9 357 7 4. l 69.770 7437 l7(40 7(697 l76) 7.67 743 ...... 37.0 32.3 358.9 336.3 .7 397.9 339.35 799.4 399.7 359.7 -.3

30...... l6.4390.7 384.7 383.3 47O 347 (67 060 737 777 767 743 8....8~~~~~~ -. h...... ~ 2...... 207.8 ~473.3 ~377.6 M306.3 ..... 0.3 373.6 376. 77 .0373 . 330.3. ,.9 .4 3 6. 4494a .I3.679 942. 3 7*3I 795 tr9eo...... 3 p...... 7 ; . 77

P P'..aeay 29

ESTABLISHMENT DATA ESTABLISHMENT DATA Table B-L inde.es of aggregate Weeklyhours of production or nonsupelaory workers, on private nonagricultural payrolls by Industry 111- M U-41, .0- -. 1 I 0,,.i I'M P

...... I 10.5 116.1 3 I IS. 11- ...... ::0 .3 I I 'O' I ...... -...... 1.3 :2.1 SI T ...... 123.1 113.9 I".' 111.1 126.1 13- 131.1 13- 131.1 112.1 ...... 5.1 11.1 " .I Is.. 1- 1, 1 9- 12.,I 13. 13.1 c- , 9...... I , 0 0 :163:.3 ...... ID- 101.1 I.1 S.- ...... O".: ...... :' " I ...... 1. 2 11 1 19.0 I 11.1 11:'I 10.1 101.3 I.1 I 1 2...... : ' ":I ":2 I- 3 ...... 12,8 11 ...... I .0:. :2 a :'1:1 I II .1:1 .1.1 I03. I- 3 I- , 101, I01.6 ...... T- ...... :...... A- , ...... -- ...... '03., .`I- I ON:.' I.:, I ...... II-I 11:1. 11.1 11:4 11:7 11:1 11:1 9.1 I I '9 II

...... r...... I...... I )II., 130.3 132.0 I - I 21.2 1 9.1 - .1 1- 5 I 21.1 I...... 108.3 109.3 I 09.1 106., :03.1 101.) 100.6 ...... IV .1 120 .5 120.4 1- . 2:.: I I ... I" . I I ...... 12I.5 21.4 .31.1 31.3 110.6 '40.1 ...... 1" .. I " .3 I 17. I 1.I... 2. P-W.11.1-ry.

Table 84. W8.68 of diffusion: Percent of Industrial, in which employment' Increased

TI- J. G.,",

12-1 11:1 12:2 1,1:1 11:1 :3:1 1,3:1 2 19:62 16.2 5- 54.1 11-9 15-1 P- I 11 - 75.9 11-1 11 11 11:,2 11 I I 11 I 11 1 13:1 I 5I:1, , ": ":1 51 I 51 3 O., ..., 17.1 5- 51.1 P...5 ".I 11.4 11:91 11 I 11:'I 61,1 I,,, 11,6 13,2 11,7 I',' 194, 111.2 ":, 4, 18.9 50.8 5- 198,...... 53.8 1 11.6 .:., 5.9 I.., 11.1 0- I98, ...... 2.2. 1 6,4:9, '171 3:9 .:6 5 P, OTE. U1. 30

United States Department Bureau of Labor Statistics Washington, D.C. 20212

FORDATA ONLY: (202) 523-1221 USDL87-12 FORTECHNICAL INFORMATION: TRANSMISSIONOF MATERIALIN THIS (202) 272-5113, 272-5108, 272-5123 RELEASEIS EMBARGOEDUNTIL MEDIACONTACT: (202) 523-1913 8:30 A.M. (E.S.T.), FRIDAY, JANUARY9, 1987

PRODUCERPRICE INDEXES--DECEMBER1986

The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods showed no change from November to December seasonally adjusted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The index had registered modest increases in each of the 4 previous months. Prices received by domestic producers of intermediate goods moved up 0.2 percent in December, the sameas in November. Crude material prices declined 1.6 percent, following an increase of the same size in October and no change in November. (See table A.) Amongfinished goods, prices for consumer foods were slightly lower for the second consecutive month. The index for energy goods edged up

Table A. Percent changes from preceding month in selected stage-of- processing price indexes, seasonally adjusted'

Finished goods I Intermediate goods I Crude goods I

! j- I I j I Foods I i ,Food- S i j TotallConsumer (Other (Total S and IOtherS Totall and (Other S :Month) I foods I I I feedsalX I Ifeed- I I i I I I I III IstuffsI I jDec. i 0.61 1.0 j 0.51 0.41 0.7 1 0.41 -0.31 -0.51 -0.21 *I S 1986 !Jan. 1 -.71 -. 6 -.8I -. 5I -.5 I -.5 -1.31 -2.5S -.1I (Feb. I -1.6I -1.7 1 -1.61 -1.4I -1.4I -1.4S -5.41 -3.61 -7.31 (Mar. ' -1.0' .1 ' -1.31 -1.21 -.2 I -1.21 -2.21 -.9S -3.7I (Apr. j -.5 .1 j -.8I -1.0I -.8 I -1.0I -3.4I -3.1I -3.6I 'May ' .5. 1.3 ' .21 -.3I .7 I -.3I 2.11 4.45 -.61 (June ) .1j o j .2I o I -.1 I O I -.51 -.71 -.2I (July ) -.61 1.8 I -1.51 -.61 .2 1 -.61 .41 3.31 -3.51 (Aug. I r.31 r1.6 I r-.11 0 I r1.2 I -.11 r.31 r2.81r-3.4 I Sept.l r.5 r-.3 I r.71 .5I r.5 I .51 r.21 r-1.51 r2.8 I iOct. I .31 .9 I .1I -.3I -. 8 I -.31 1.61 2.61 .21 'Nov. I .21 -.1 1 .31 .2I .3 1 .21 0 I -.21 .2 I jDec. I 0 I -.4 I .21 .2I .4 I .1I -1.61 -2.01 -1.1 1 I~ ~ I_1 1 1 1 1I .3/ Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and animal feeds. r= revised. Some of the figures shown above and elsewhere in this release maydiffer from those previously reported because data for August 1986 have been revised to reflect the availability of late reports and corrections by respondents. 31

marginally, after recording no change the month before. Prices for finished goods other than foods and energy moved up less than in most other recent months.

Before seasonal adjustment, the Producer Price Index for Finished Goods fell 0.3 percent in December to end the year at 289.9 (1967=100). From December 1985 to December 1986, prices received by domestic producers at all three major stages of processing declined appreciably, principally because of substantially lower energy prices. The Finished Goods Price Index moved down 2.5 percent, following advances of less than 2 percent in each of the 3oimmediately preceding years. The Intermediate Goods Price Index fell 4.4 percent over the year, after rising slowly from 1982 through 1984 and edging down 0.3 percent in 1985. The 1986 decreases for both these major stage-of-processing indexes were the largest calendar year declines since 1949. The drop of 9.7 percent in the Crude Goods Price Index was considerably larger than the declines recorded in 1984 and 1985 and was the largest drop for any calendar year since 1952. Amongmajor categories within the Finished Goods Price Index in 1986, the index for energy goods fell 39.1 percent, dwarfing the declines registered in other recent years. Consumer food prices climbed 2.9 percent, continuing the moderate increases registered for this index in each year after 1980. The increase in the index for consumer goods other than foods and energy accelerated from 1.9 percent in 1985 to 2.9 percent in 1986. Capital equipment prices rose less in 1986 (2.1 percent) than they had in 1985 (2.7 percent).

Table B. Percent changes in finished goods price indexes, selected pe-iodsa

Changes from preceding month, seasonally adjusted I I * I ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Changein *t I IFinished) consumer goods !finished I excluding foods Igoods from) I Capitall Finishedl ; 12 months) I Finished) equip-I consumer) i I Non- I ago I Month) goods I ment I goods I Totall Ourablesl durablesl (unadj.) I

: * I I I I

!Dec. I 0.6 1 0.1 1 0.7 1 0.61 -0.1 I 1.1 1 1.8 1

JUL:: :I: I I I Jan.) -.7 2 -. 9) -1.01 -. 5 1 -1.4 1.3 ) !Feb.) -1.6 : .1 -2.1 I -2.3) .2 1 -3.7 ) -.2 1 Mar. : -1.0 1 .21 -1.3 1 -2.0) .3 1 -3.3 1 -1.4 1 Apr. I -.5 .3 : -.8 1 -1.2) .9 1 -2.5 : -2.0 1 May) .5 0 .6) .31 -. 2 1 .61 -1.8 1 June ) .1 .2: .1 : .1: .2 1 .1i -1.6 1 July I -. 6 .1 -.8 I -2.2) .1 : -3.6 : -2.4 1 Aug. r.3 : 1 .5 I r-.1 rO : r-.1 I -1.8 1 !Sept.) r.5 1 .4 r.5 I r.91 r.8 I rl.O : -.9 1 ioct.) .3 : .5 .3 1 0 1 1.4 1 -.9: -1.4 1 Nov. .2 : .3 .1 1 .3) .2 1 .3I -1.9 1 Dec. 0 : 0 0 I .2) 0 ) .4 -2.5 I r= revised. Some of the figures shown above and elsewhere in this release may differ from those previously reported because data for August 1986 have been revised to reflect the availability of late reports and corrections by respondents. 32

Finished goods

Finished conswnerfgoos. Following a rise of 0.2 percent in uovemnber, the index or finished consumer goods was unchanged in December seasonally adjusted, as a slight increase for energy goods offset a small decline for foods. The index for finished energy goods rose 0.2 percent after showing no change a month earlier. Prices rose sharply for both home heating oil and gasoline, following smaller advances in the previous nonth. In contrast, the natural gas index fell sharply in December, the ninth consecutive monthly decrease. The index for finished consumer foods declined 0.4 percent, following dn even smaller drop in November. After rising sharply a month earlier, prices turned down for fresh vegetables and eggs. Prices for beef and veal fell somewhat more than in November. Other decreases were noted for processed poultry, pork, fresh fruits, and roasted coffee. Prices for shortening and cooking oils moved up but muchless than the month before. Fish prices turned up after falling in each of the 3 preceding months, however, while prices for dairy products and processed fruits and vegetables continued to climb.

Amongother kinds of consumer goods, advances were registered for drugs, sanitary papers, men's footwear, motor homes, and household glassware. These were largely balanced by declines for passenger cars, soaps and detergents, small arms ammunition, cosmetics, gold jewelry, and apparel.

Canital equipment. The Producer Price Index for capital equipment was unchndged in December. Price increases included heavy motor trucks and power cranes, excavators, and equipment, while prices for light motor trucks and transformers and power regulators moved down. Intermediate goods The Producer Price Index for Intermediate Materials, Supplies, and Components moved up 0.2 percent from November to December, seasonally adjusted. An increase in energy prices, combined with declines in several other areas, yielded an overall monthly change identical to November's. The intermediate energy index climbed 1.4 percent, following a small rise in November. Substantial advances occurred for gasoline, diesel fuel, residual fuel, and jet fuel. Prices for liquefied petroleum gas fell, although not as much as the month before. After registering several consecutive months of small increases, the index for intermediate goods excluding foods and energy inched down0.1 percent in December. The construction materials and components index fell 0.3 percent after an equal rise in November. Prices turned downafter advancing in the prior month for softwood lumber, plywood, and gypsum products. In addition, prices for millwork and asphalt paving mixtures continued to fall.

The durable manufacturing materials index also recorded a 0.3 percent decrease. Downward movements were noted for Portland cement, hot rolled steel sheets and strip, zinc, gold, and silver. Platinum prices dropped sharply for the third consecutive month. Moderate increases, however, took place for copper and lead. Amongmaterials used in maufacturing nondurable goods, substantially lower prices for styrene plastic resins were the dominant factor. Prices also moved down for paperboard and gray fabrics. Leather, woodpulp, lead paint pigments, and synthetic rubber advanced, however. 33

The intermediate foods and feeds index rose 0.4 percent, as advances for animal feeds, crude vegetable oils, and flour more than offset lower meat prices.

Crude noods After showing no change in November, the Producer Price Index for Crude Materials for Further Processing dropped 1.6 percent in December seasonally adjusted. Manyitems, particularly foodstuffs, either turned down or fell faster than in the previous month. The crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs index decreased 2.0 percent, following a 0.2 percent decline in November. Prices turned downfor cattle, fresh vegetables, soybeans, and raw cane sugar after rising in the the preceding month. Prices dropped even faster than in November for hogs, turkeys, and hay. In contrast, price decreases for chickens and fresh fruits were such smaller than in the previous month, while prices for unprocessed fish and wheat turned up following November declines. Corn prices climbed nearly 10 percent for the second consecutive month, but still ended the year more than 30 percent lower than their December 1985 level. Following declines of less than 1 percent in both October and November, the crude energy materials index dropped 3.0 percent. The natural gas index fell 6.8 percent, declining again as in most months during the past 2 years. Prices for crude petroleum edged up in December but were downmore than 50 percent over the year. The index for crude nonfood materials other than energy rose 1.4 percent, the third consecutive monthly increase ranging between 1 and 2 percent. Rawcotton prices increased substantially, as they have in other recent months following their record decline in August. Prices rose moderately for leaf tobacco, lead and zinc ores, and phosphates. However, wastepaper prices fell more than the month before, and cattle hides moved up much less than in either October or November.

Net output orice indexes for major industry groups The Producer Price Index for the net output of the domestic manufacturing sector was unchanged from November to December, following a slight rise (0.1 percent) in the previous month. Nearly half of the major manufacturing industry groups showed no change at all in December. The index for the net output of the petroleum refining industry group climbed 1.2 percent over the month, far more than its 0.2 percent increase in November. Prices for the leather and leather products industry group advanced 0.5 percent, considerably more than in other recent months. These increases balanced modest declines for several other industry groups, led by 0.4 percent drops in indexes for both the chemicals group and the transportation equipment group. After falling 0.8 percent in November, the index for the net output of the domestic mining sector dropped 3.4 percent in December. Most of this downward movement stemned from the 4.9 percent decrease in the index for the oil and gas extraction industry group. Although the metal mining industry group index climbed 1.3 percent in December, this was only about half as large as November's advance of 2.5 percent. 34

PPI Weights to be Updated

The Bureau of Labor Statistics has begun updating the value weights used to calculate Producer Price Indexes for traditional commodity groupings to reflect more recent production patterns. The revised weights, which will be introduced when January 1987 data are released in February, will be based on 1982 shipment values taken from the Census of Manufactures and other sources. Presently, PPI weights are derived from 1972 shipment values.

All indexes calculated from traditional commodity groupings (including all indexes in tables 1, 2, and 3) will be affected by the weight update. Although the allocation of commodities within the stage-of-processing framework will continue to be based on the 1972 input-output tables, the weights of individual commodities and commodity groupings will be revised. Industry indexes in table 4, which are based on the Standard Industrial Classification system, will continue to be calculated using 1977 net output weights. The weight revision will not change the existing arithmetic reference period of the PPI index system. The PPI classification system will remain unchanged. Therefore, the continuity and comparability of PPI indexes will not be affected.

Producer Price Index data for 1987 will be released on the following dates (all Fridays) at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time:

Reference Release Reference Release month date month date

January February 13 July August 14

February March 13 August September 11

March April 10 September October 16

April May 15 October November 13

May June 12 November December 11

June July 10 December January 15, 1988 35

Technical Notes

Brief Explanation of Crude materials for further processing are products Producer Price Indexes entering the market for the first time that have not been manufactured or fabricated and that are not sold directly Producer price indexes iPPI) measure average changes to consumers. Crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs include in prices received by domestic producers of commodities items such as grains and livestock. Examples of crude in all stagesof processing. Most of the information used nonfood materials include raw cotton, crude petroleum, in calculating she indexes is obtained through the coal, hides and skins, and iron and steel scrap. systematic sampling of nearly every industry in the The illustration shows examples of how products are manufacturing and mining sectors of the economy. The classified by stage of processing. Ppi program also includes some information from other sectors-agriculture, fishing, forestry, services, and gas and electricity. Because producer price indexes are designed someasure only the change in prices received for the output of domestic industries, imports are not included. The sample currently contains about 3,200 commodities and 75,000 quotations per month. There are three primary systems of indexes within the Ppr program: (I) Stage-of-processing indexes; (2) commodity indexes and; (3) indexes for the net output of industries and their products. The stage-of-processing structure (tables I and 2) organizes products by class of buyer and degree of processing. The commodity structure (tables 2 and 3) organizes products by similarity of end-use or material composition. The entire output of various industries is sampled to derive price indexes for the net output of industries and their products (table 4). Within the stage-of-processing system, finished goods are commodities that will not undergo further processing and are ready for sale to the final demand user, either an individual consumer or a business firm. Con- sumer foods include unprocessed foods, such as eggs and fresh vegetables, aswell as processed foods, such as Producer price indexes for the net output of in- bakery products and meats. Other finished consumer dustries and their products are grouped according to the goods include durable goods, such as automobiles, Standard Industrial Classification tstc) and the Census household furniture, and appliances, and nondurable product code extensions of the sic. Industry price in- goods, such as apparel and home heating oil. Capital dexes are compatible with other economic time series equipment includes producer durable goods such as organized by sic codes, such as data on employment, heavy motor trucks, tractors, and machine tools. wages, and productivity. Table 4 lists indexes for the net The stage-of-processing category for intermediate output of major mining and manufacturing industry materials, supplies, and components consists partly of groups at the 2-digit level. commodities that have been processed but require fur- Producer price indexes are based on selling prices ther processing. Examples of such semifinished goods reported by establishments of all sizes selectedby prob- include flour, cotton yarn, steel mill products, and ability sampling, with the probability of selection propor- lumber. The intermediate goods category also encom- tionate to size. Individual items and transaction terms passesitems that are physically complete but that are from thee firms are also chosen by probability propor- purchased by business firms as inputs for their opera- tionate to size. BLS strongly encourages cooperating com- tions. Examples include diesel fuel, belts and belting, panies to supply actual transaction prices at the time of paper boxes, and fertilizers. shipment to minimize the useof list prices. Prices are nor- 36

mally reported monthly by mail questionnaire for the Tuesday of the weekcontaining the 13th. IndexPoint Chvnge Price data arc provided on a voluntary and confiden- Finisshe GoodsPle Index 2td 5 tial basis; no one but sworn BLa employees are allowed less previous'ndle 285t accessto individual company price reports. All pro- dqualspaintMdex change 35 ducer price indexes are routinely subject to revision lodexPecent Chance once, 4 months after original publication, to reflect the availability of late reports and corrections by Inde, Point change 35s respondents. diiddd by Iye previs. index Net output values of shipments are usedas weights 0012 -esults muiWpfileby tX 0.012X o00 for industry indexes. Net output values refer to the tuualnpersent ehunge 12 value of shipments from establishments in one industry to establishments classified in another industry. However, weights for commodity price indexes are based An increase of 188.5percent from the reference period on gross shipment values, including shipment values in the Finished Goods Price Index, for example, is between establishments within the same industry. As a shown as 288.5. This change can also be expressed in result, broad commodity grouping indexes such as the dollars as follows: "Prices received by domestic pro- all commodities index are affected by the multiple coun- ducers of a systematic sample of finished goods have ting of price change at successive stages of processing, risen from 1100 in 1967to S288.50 today." Likewise, a which can lead to exaggerated or misleading signals current index of 300.0would indicate that prices received about inflation. Stage-of-processing indexes partially by producers of finished goods today are triple what they correct this defect, but industry indexes consistently cor- were in 1967. rect for this at all levels of aggregation. Therefore, industry and stage-of-processing indexes are more ap- Seasonally Adjusted propriate than broad commodity groupings for and Unadjusted Data economic analysis of general price trends. Weights for most producer price indexes currently reflect values of Becauseprice data are usedfor different purposes by shipments reported in the 1972 Census of Manufac- different groups, the Bureau of Labor Statistics tures; these weights will be updated for 1982Census of publishes seasonally adjusted as well as unadjusted Manufactures data in 1987. changes each For further information on the underlying concepts month. Seasonally adjusted data usually are preferred for and methodology of the Producer Price Index, see analyzing general price trends in the economy because chapter 7, "Producer Prices," in BLS Handbook of they eliminate the effect of changes that normally occur Methods (1982), Bulletin 2134-1. Reprints are available at about the same time and in about the same magnitude from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on request every year-such as price movements (202-523-1221). resulting from normal weather patterns, regular production and Calculating Index Changes marketing cycles, model changeovers, seasonal discounts, and holidays. For thesereasons, seasonally adjusted data more clearly reveal underlying cyclical Movements of price indexes from one month to trends. another are usually expressed as percent changes rather Unadjusted data are of primary interest to users who than as changes in index points because index point need information which can be related to the actual changes are affected by the level of the index in relation dollar values of transactions. Individuals requiring this to its base period, while percent changes are not. The information include marketing specialists, purchasing box shows the computation of index point and percent agents, budget and cost analysts, contract specialists, changes. and commodity traders. It is the unadjusted data that Percent changes for 3-month and 6-month periods are generally cited in escalating long-term contracts such can be expressed as annual rates that are computed ac- as purchase agreements or real estate leases.(See Escala- cording to the standard formula for compound growth tion and Producer Price Indexes: A Guide for Contrac- rates. These data indicate what the percent change ting Parties, BLS Report 570, available on request from would be if the rate for a given 3- or 6- month span were BLs.) maintained for a 12-month period. For more information, sec"Appendix A: Seasonal Each index measures price changes from a reference Adjustment Methodology at BLS" in the BLS Handbook period which equals 100.0 (1967 or some later month). of Methods (1982), Bulletin 2134-1. 37

Table 1. Prod-aCapuoi isdaxaa a ridpraaM cisaga by star Of p90000i0ag ('%r .'OD)

hJu.--r~l~lv I..e eh r.odj., ; f~~~~~~~~~~~rci 1r ....7.4.04.p7s r.4.7406 7....'S ltt tvt los"" l 77 ~j4 750|96Z7 74062- ''s""I 'as 'Ot | a... i r.4

N2U.2 7'A NN l 2 o5 @ F~~~~n;~~g!.s hd 77 2 ~ 307. 402.5 3082 -778 0 5-5 7 448 74 4.5 742 0 4 4 2 0 F7.s70o40.04..7.0..ao55oo l 901 soaas ... ..7.00 ...... 5-.700 0 .4 0 0 44 7.4 -4 0.- 20 4..b...... a....22.4 776 3 770.4 27 5 7 7 6 0 6 r. ' . . .4...o.s...... _ ..... _02... 270 9..1 71 .44isaoooe-; -c-to t ..0.7040, s 4 542i

oOls,0 t. durel.. *.f...... s....2.026 00 . 465.7 2445.72 10 -2 2 2 7 00..40.co,409. d. . .. 554 2 NA5- 31:12 sa - - e.04. onh Ao, .atr44 R.56"' 705. 2 7 7 77062 -2 . 7i 0 7 0 *2 2 40 . 3 2 60 4 27 5. 74 . .0 .0 7 0 7 7 215- :7 I I4 5 258 5 - - .2 5- 4 0 ; 2'N575 08. 1755 Nj2 0.7 2 700.4 5 7.2 0 22 IIer .0007404drt no;~s ins UfI~sad.0.06 efonn IeoCS4 -doloo7.7.4 ..c7ao.o . .7 0.5..5 otozz~.od ao{pWs t. to.- c.0 V.s4.. . . 74 707 2v9 "N'a 5 -8 9i 04 ..70.o.oo..1 *o4.tc......

4oofiads~o77. .04 7. d~ntflrs. .. . 75.60 oonsfo.4..55,7otls lsoc fopt7 37_0 . . 4I4.7406

9 P"N8 , Cooido 74. 1'e 37od _d on's 6S6 ll: 1, :i 9to274@o -A :: 1, -I:', rno_ cn.cnotblo o ~dsIdscoo._d7 . . L, -1.1I F~Iot~s.4~good .cludss_Z food . A' 74 444 i , -1 I .2 .000.dlts 004.47010100 food. ond 7.040 . £R7j 54i25 -044d.4.0704 fod so4^1fods. . 54 705 :: I 040 50401 1. 0447414.4. odleo j2r 37Y' 44.24 N :I 529*42 25 2.1 r 0d.00f797 goods. . '62s5eooyY7.405 -2. - : I -: 11 :3 .I .I

--l -:1 :111 i.. 1.7I . I ..

2l Co=o.-.o.o fO9cl7o9oa7... -4 c--os I , 7.454of 4.7.1t*ib.d oatds. 4 7,40I.....I-- ,een:., t:,~.7t;, 't'1,!9,04104749 f404 of lotsert n..0.d0.4004.4 t n ,ospsondgoto. 011 4.90 00 ocbJsct 4o ,.ovoboo 4 oosth- sf0. .4soal oblloot.ss tadsSuffo dd*toflo 71.04004 4t :.4405f.71- 905.1 4,4 0710r InwSoald..,sod. rpot'sa . T 38

Tabl. 2. Poduc prde Indes." and peM chnges fr -teW comofdy glpOg by stag.d prce (97l- OWurl U)HHo-. hnkDOd7

C-.dlty I - , I-;dD' , .... oo.6)ji.dJ';'3d - I

OI) I -" FINISHED H O O D S . l ~ 2.5. :1 F~INliSNEdDCONS5UMER F O O D S . 070. M.: Fo...0.7 , ...... ,.. ... 273.3.. 211:1 j; _;, F..ChoO 2o0..d U.38H.6U.8. 237.8 U,

jZ-; | 91 -d8..7 UN.)...... 0.2 . 0...... 8... j9jZZj_ j s**F,_|d 1...... 253.8 211 2-22 Ug0ryFOOOUNU. .Z' .239. 07 i *2-55 FUU..2.0, ... .)3*00,2...... 2.8.3 CUU7S.UH)UU--H.Gr.,2,U.) i7-i . I.o...77.88D209.7 ... So7H2 ,)0 ...... 2...... 00. R...H.d .. S...I...... 2.18.IoId III i5-5i or j 5_ajjj T.UH)U.eD ).'. UC)HU.,..).,..,,o.e ..U .. ... 2 .7...... MU2Z...... U ..... 28.3.232.3 *551 -P.n -d -- I-Fari jo' -5 5-G 2 - Gs

@6-56 Da -:75 U..-U)0..308.7 | Gil: FO...... H.M.h ild F...... d D=F...34)NOC~...... ).... l 278..aZ Ds-is-as 89-5|- :1 33 odI I73. )0 8.o...... 2.. 3 I,. N..d..233.2... a i-1 I sZ-5 1 .od 7..dOo..IHH ...... 303. .0 li2 r53., g;'b ~- '*dhoiiFd.s.287355 HUI. h.).3o..I 8U0 p.. I. 70 5 1 5,). . )O.U 0373=100~o2D 2i .18=al7i8 iZ-42 | -ZA 12-54 1 JI 3U0 11.5)30'.. 8icltoCU,.) 3D9dN. 03700882' I' 3 9 1i_ | 1_os I 5-|s 15-j2

5-9--22 1 15-9--04 | CI- . jQ . TU.o...... 3 00...... I 3 1 2

I 3,ID.I)..,. P *.uCd d . 33 .2 i3,, 0I3.) 3333,.3~ctCen .. * H . .. 79H 11-58 C~oHU3100..I~~oOy.,2.S)...... 3..... 7.. jj_41 U.2...h id) .t" Hi.d .55i.... . I 237.0 I .00001.' 00T...... I 28.2 CAFII ~ 108 22. .0EN 00 38 2.1 ll:S~o.)D,.,,o..O~o.3....4383...... SI rtngd7). .)2 o.n ..dg.hlll tngoslod. v...... 2- 15 i3i7i ,,,7Hb.3.-Co .,o..iod.iii7i i . . 3 12-2 JN jEjjjj DHEo7nstUDO3OeODC7-,II- . I 2 0.3*HI(N U.H.....2...... FOUDSr...@u ODDFEEDS 30323. |4-21-o2 "FD..2'-F--- 30 2 0 .d. 00.3 09108 . 05522

CIgHOED"tEFensoorHrd0.SOo TERUI..1I..388 30.3. 09518 or 0 028.83 iisi ! DlI fUiD. Onod 130-08 s 2iihnr I42 N ;2-54 1 CI-dU.,...... 10....03-..U ...... ' ... .. S.)I .I 300r~a| 3untr jozj2

0.,. 8, h. 977000...... i95 i5 ...... 88 X5-e 1 j S- jZi2 21:11 *5-72-o5 j 585-§5

FI .2 Ligt 2'.r . . . 282.305 OX-22 j96-^5 | 92dl 2S3ortr 8ODD 208.8 2-1 211.5 22- 39

Toas2 Co,,Moa-Ppsdo - bnfti nd peso change. sacted cos,,vndIty g g by sagp of Wtocesing, (9057-9074.unbD ~ lly tOO a bS.Dt 1d~rwinil 1 (MoD3-,o541

I -. 5.0. 300. Moo. oot5. Dot to Doe.S Coo04(t| y ,I | D , , |i - 1.M,,- ;= . -Ieo

-Cw~:ii red ...... Dc-S 0t.-.let.( 70 U 2 2d. 252.07. 2527.. 23.07. - .7. .2 -.-3 - 37 .

07-'29 P (Ieo oS~ teto 3 949. . 904.3 33.2 3a 3 4 -1.5 0.3 -...... 37-25 r oono,-3.4.Sooh.''~pD.39(e IrrsiII.. oh...... z ...... 2* 03.0I 2 53.92 S9.3 -D.2 1. - 0 5'. 9 37-99-3 ~*0(Doe.' @ DC-DO 13973334nt~~~~ept.' ooD V.229.5 eo..esohs to, .. 'o~~~~~~~~t~~.t....o. 22051 2.8 -.' .2 - ( 903 V...... 7...... 2 31 2592 7( t6i. D'0o.(9.4 393.9.... 5. 2 D 3- 9drD.d .329.3 9 i 393.3 '2 53-31 *Drino.d.233...... 57, 235.252-5 233.7 I.. 39-97 5o.*y hol ip *a ...... -- 3"7.3 37 I. 37

o;_239-33-DOCop. bo.. .o4 7.09.10.7. -22i.9 274.7 i274.9 0. 33-2 7D 2 booD..T.....'Id...... 212.2 242X2 221. 3i.i -3 'S

93 22 P. r ...... z 2 .0 73.4 3. i57 4 .f...... 23.3: 2D0-S 2D47 7 2 33- .(o.. e.,...... tt o3224 ... 32- 2DD D o.. . i...... r.2 . . 73-7z Po4,-2etd' .7..ot.eio.t~i ...... 3. 3 3i7. .0 73-43 - @sMoeh..(oD p... 3 (33 ,.7oo.9ooo3 00...... ecV . - 347 ~~~~, 3 549. 5330 ~~~3 3 7-9-D3.7 07 ,.D.. b..Ie.357..3043.73.7. 39-4 w-bo..D..UF AnE0TF5274.9 239.7 273.-.7 91.5 9.-. -2 397 fIog:dDo.34 3793i00.0 4. 3,-3D-@ Motoos.rwC 907 y*;otdoe. (9-70 b.Ithg..,..~~~ OD._d ~~~...t9~... *3...... a .. i'3,.7:23. IJz5532.333NVDS4 (44i 0 . 3- 2. 797 let.oe3o....437o3 . 3. 233.4 233.3 D. -.9 .3 t(.. -Je -323D .- . T374.4...... 7994. ; _ 9. -2 22 2 r 019$37 93 44Deto..e.(Co..-e. ooootl... p''hd~ ~~~~~~..no.334..3.353.8.3.3.3.9.9 V D .7 .2 *9599F(.3gD... V.232.4 2D2~~~~~~~~~~~~...... 7 233D, 9.4 . .

93-2239-3 X7Pootlood eoofot.030.3 343.3 04. .3-4r .4 7 -0 7 937 Depooo o~~~~~-nV.433 332.4 .3092.4 -2.5 9. I.. 3.7 7. 93-3o~~~~~~~~~et.(0.,3.432.3 ODDOD 303.0~~~~~~~~~~1130.2. 5.4 -. .2 .4 .3

CRUE .-8E30L5 703 -T37M P3DE35110...... 270 5 27.4 274.8 91.7 -9. 5 4 3 7. £050 PDDD37PPS430 PEED30P ...... 204 9 203.9 232. -.4. 91.5 2.0 -.D 2.0.

37-29 32(343.933~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~S 704. 90.3 -9373 . . 3- 0 9 -3 9.~ ...... 2 2 3.3 2 30. 0 0 .3 -. ~ ~ ~~~~D9-32 ~. .. 039.2 25D.3 253.3 90.3~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.~. 33-0 d lt.543.0 233.4 27.7 -4.4 -ID .C3 -Dn.

CUDE 83PDCD STEODALS...... 3.30. 09.7 0493 93-.9 -1.

39-92-39-39Loot90407.225.3 .3DOD...... 25D.3 -3035. 30-3 73405 V~~~~..330...... S.4 5373453. - DO-SI .t..o2*..j' ~~~~...(95...... 12.4 08332. -2.0 4-3I..

30-92 ...... 233324073. 230 9D3 3.d...... 2433 245.D 243.3 7.7 '3:7o

33 23Cee~~~t....otlo.. 0.174. .. I~ ~~...... 00. 379.3.523.9.319.3 2.4

39( oo.. I Alblte980. ooto .1d7It,.. o ..oot..

V 4.3 o....o.DlydJo.3.d. o ( ze. Ihb 40

Tabie 3. Piocduce, price indexes for selected commodity groupings 17 100 -nless otherwise .ndicated)

I Unadjusted index j/ Corn-dityl - 7 T TW -~ 6ID 9 code I Gro.uping IAug. 1986 Nu. 98 IDe.16

IAll Casooditios..297.2...29...7...... 98..... AIAlCosmo ditiss (1957-59=1 001...... 315.3 3i16.:9 i 316 5 I

MAJORCOMMIODITY GROUPS IPr prdcsadp rocssd-uns ndfeeds..... 255.5 I 255.2 I 254.6 01 I Fr prducsI 227.0 i 229.3 I 226.8 02 P..nsdfod.. adfosI 269.6 I 267.9 I 268.4 I 03 I ":I~~~~~~~~~~~~~I I 03 I Toutilo products aridapparl ...... I 211.2 1i 2113 I 2110 24 I io, shns leaher .ad related peoducte..I: 297.0 I 299.1 1 301.5 OS I Fousadrelted prducts and po-aorL... 438.4 I 438.2 I 435.9 I 06 1 Cheial n ale prdut . I 270 298.5 I 297.5 07 ubrsd n plastic products.I .2462 244I249I 08 Lumbur and wood products.....I....3037.2 307.6 I3406.7I 09 I Pulp, paper, and alliedtpreducts...... 336..4 348.5 I 348.6 II Metals.and.metal.products . I3111 3102.2 i311.8 ii I Machi ..ry and oquipont~...... I 304.1, 384.9 I 305.0 I 12 I uriure andhshold .dorabls...... 224.2 224.6 I 225.0 13 I I nntalli cioa products...... I 3518 350.9 I 349.8 14 I Transpo tatin eqoipsetllu.16c01 i 274.7 I 282.7 I 281.7 IS I Miscolanonu pout...... 3...09.7 310.5 I 389.9 I Industrialco...oditios less fuels aod related III products and pes...... 293.8 295.9 i295.5

IOTHER COMMODITYGROUPINGS II Cl 2 Grains...... 189 146.3 I149.7 0l1- [.n..st..c...... 253.0 247.1 I 244.5 15 PIPat andaia fiesi 94.3 I 154.0 i 176.7 II_0 IHY. hayseuds, and'.silseeds.....90..2...2102 I 199.7 I03 MOileeds. '810:7.7 2808.9 1 96.3 I 01-9 Otho tan, predacyts--.I :....246.7 251.8 i258.0 02-1 C-ra andbakery pout.I281.4 2808.4 Z820.6 I u Iatsdpoultry,.and.fish..1 277.4 i 266.9 I 266.4 I 02-5 'lun1arand con'Ifectioner.Y...... 296.0 i 299.6 I 299.7 02 6 I ceagnad bonr-. a.r. l . 292.9 i 292.5 I 292.8 02_63 I Packaged benurg eTer'ide ..... 425.9 420.6 I 420.3 02-7 FPts and oils...... 199.7 204.80 200.7I 03-81 I Apparl-'.I2016.5 207.74 I2016. 04 4 IOthrletr adrltdproduct . 272.2 I 2722 27.q 05:3 Ga.fues...I .. 809.9 I 789.0 I 742.1 I Rofi-io perlempodcs .,39 146.6 1 354.2 I -6 3 Dr~ nd pharmaceu.ticalsi 2774. 2679.06 I 200.1 I 0~~~~~~I~ A,,Icutua S~ ~ ~chomical .d.1~ ad products:::: -i 27. 296 I 270.5 C.' 7 Olh-. chsical ad alidPprductsI 203.5 I 286.5 I 20 3.4 07-i ORrho., and r-bber products..261.8 I 259.4 I260.8 07-II Crude rbber...... 249.1I 240.9 I243.6 07 13 i i occlaeus rubber products . I:::... 300.5 5 00.3 I 301.0 07 2 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.I(June.19780 0 laticproducts. I 112 i 140.4 I 140.6 Mt1 ILumber...... I~ 346.0 5 48.1 I 345.8 I 091 IPulp, paper n products:,occldin bIldn I paper and bad . I 295.7 308.6 I 300.6 09-IS Connerted paper and paperboard prodot.I1.... 289.8 293.7 I 24941:7 10I I rn and stool...... 343.2 343.6 I 437 10-2 Iflnferroussutale...... '258.:7 260.9 i259.7 11-3 I MotaIu.rking acinr and equipsent.... 348.9 3469.8 I 50.9 11-4 I eealpros ahinery and equipment..... 326.4 326.8 326. I 11-6 ISpecial industry naciinery...... 373.2 375.2 I 375.9 I 11-7 IElcral achyinory and eupen . 158.2 259..2 I 250.9 11-9 I rselaeo ahino.rY and quipen. I 200.0 280.0 I 2880.6 I 12-6 Oilier,huos..hold durable goods...... I:. 326.8 1I 327.1 1I 320.35 13 2 I Concrte ingrudients...... 1 338.9 1I 38.3 I 334.90 14 1 I otnr-nhics and equipment...... 272.80 1 284.2 I 282. I 151 IToysprin ods. scab.aes..etc . 236.8 237.2 I 234.2 I 154 IPhtgaiceuipment end supplie..I ..... 219.1 220.0 i 219.8 15_9 I Other miscellaneous products...... 3.55.5 358.2 357.5 I

I' Data for iAug 190l.6hans Pboon ron med to reflect the -nilability of lte reots ndcorrction b ropodots 81 dtaar suject to eiin4 othsatroiia puliaion. I Price of some items is this grou.pingare lagged I soth. T a.ble 4. Producer price indexes for the net output of major mining and manufacturing industry groups -----.------1.----·----- I I I Index I PQ~~:~~u~~:~ge Indllsb~y I Industry 1/ IIndoxl ___-;r- __-r ____ llto DOC 1986 from' cod~ I I bas. I 1 1 I I I Aug. I Nov. I Doc. I Doc. I Nov. I I 11986 ?/ 111 986 Z/ 1,1 986 j!/ I 1985 I 1986 I I I . . I I !Total m1010g industries ...... 112/841 70.4 71.4 69.0 (5) -5.4 10 I Metal mining ...... 112/841 89.5 95.0 94.2 (5) 1.5 11 I Anthracite mining ...... 12/851 97.8 97.9 98.8 -1.2 .9 12 I Bituminous coal and Ugnite m;ning ...... , 12/851 99.4 98.7 98.7 -1.5 o 15 J 0 it arld gas extract i on ...... 12/851 68.6 69.4 66.0 -54.0 -4.9 14 I Mining and quarrying of non-metallic I I mhlerals, except fuels ...... 12/841 104.4 104.6 104.1 1.1 -.5 I I I I Total mClnufactur;"9 i ndustr; as ...... 12/841 97.4 98.2 98.2 (5) 20 Food and k i "dr-ed products ...... 12/841 101 .7 101 .5 101.5 1.8 21 Tobacco manufactures ...... 12/841 117.9 118.0 118.0 8.7 22 Text,lo mill products ...... 12/841 100.5 100.4 100.4 .7 25 Apparel and other finished products made I from fabrics and similar materials ...... 12/841 102.1 102.6 102.5 .4 -.5 24 lumber and wood products, except furni turo .. 12/841 102.2 102.2 102.0 2.7 -.2 25 Furn i tura and fi xtures ...... 112/841 104.5 104.7 104.7 1.8 o 26 Paper and allied products ...... 112/841 99.9 101 .5 101.4 5.6 .1 27 112/841 108.0 108.9 108.9 5.9 o 28 ~~!~~~~I~ :~~l!i~~~~' p~~~u~i!~~~. ~~~~~~~:~~: 112/841 100.2 100.0 99.6 -1.0 - .4 29 112/841 56.1 57.5 58.0 -45.2 1.2 30 ~~~~:~e~~dr:f!~!~ia~~~u~e~!!:~ i ~r;~~~~~t~: : : 112/841 100.4 100.0 100.1 o .1 51 leather and leather products ...... 12/841 102.9 105.4 105.9 1.8 .5 52 Stone, clay, glass, and concrete products, .. 12/841 105.9 105.9 103.8 .8 - .1 55 Primary metal industries ...... 12/841 97.1 97.2 97.1 -1.9 -.1 34 Fabricated metal products, except machinery I and transpol~tat i on equi pment ...... 12/841 100.8 101.1 101.1 .2 55 Machi nery, except electr i cal ...... 12/841 102.2 102.5 102.5 1.2 56 Electrical and electronic machinery, I equ i pment. and suppl i as •...... 12/841 102.5 102.7 102.7 (5) o 51 Transportation equipment ...... 12/841 105.7 107.4 107.0 5.1 -.4 58 M~asur; ng and control I i ng instruments; I photographic. medical, and optical goods; I watches and clocks ...... 12/841 102.7 105.5 105.5 2.1 o 59 Mi scellaneous manufactur i"g i ndustr i es ...... 112/851 101.6 102.1 102.0 2.0 - .1 I I I I

Indexes in thi s table are del" ived fl~om the net-output-wei ghted industry prj ce indexes. ~~c :i:f l:~ 1 ~~fft~:~cf~d!~e~o~hi~~e a~~d d:Ff~:aa~~~~ t~!~i~i!~~r' c!~:~di~! I 9;~~~i~~;: not match the movements f,,/ Data for Aug. 1986 have been revised to reflect the availability of late reports and corrections by raspondents. All data al'e subject to revision four months aftar original pUblication, Data are not seasonally adjusted. J/ Not ava; lable. 42 Senator SARBANES. Well, thank you very much, Commissioner. What was the civilian unemployment rate for 1986? Do you have the figure for the year 1986? Mrs. NORWOOD. 7.0 percent. Senator SARBANES. If you could look back, when was the last time we had an annual unemployment rate at 7 percent or below? Mrs. NORWOOD. 1979, Mr. Plewes tells me. Senator SARBANES. And then the rate was-- Mrs. NORWOOD. We don't have all of the annual averages with us. I think it was 5.8 percent. Senator SARBANES. So it was 5.8 percent in 1979 and in 1980? Mr. PLEWES. 7.1 percent. Senator SARBANES. Then could you just follow it down to the present. Mr. PLEWES. In 1981 it was 7.6 percent; in 1982 it was 9.7; in 1983 it was 9.6; in 1984 it was 7.5; in 1985 it was 7.2; in 1986 it was 7.0. Senator SARBANES. So for the year of 1979 we had an unemployment rate of 5.8 percent? Mrs. NORWOOD. As you know, that was an extraordinarily good year at the labor market. Senator SARBANES. Then it went to 7.1 in 1980 and 7.6 in 1981, and then we had, of course, the depression or the deep recession of 1982-83 where we went to 9.7 and 9.6 percent in 2 successive years, as I recall, the highest unemployment since the depression years of the 1930's; is that correct? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. Senator SARBANES. And we have now come down to 7 percent, which is in effect back where we were in 1980, roughly, one-tenth of a point lower than in 1980? Mr. PLEWES. Yes. Senator SARBANES. You commented on the fact that the producer prices have remained stable and that this was remarkable for the 5th year of a recovery. But is it fair to say that the recovery we have experienced has been less in its magnitude than recoveries which took place in earlier economic cycles, certainly at least as far as the unemployment figure is concerned? Mrs. NORWOOD. If we compare it with the recovery that is clos- est, that of the late 1970's, there has been a much sharper decline in unemployment, but it was very much higher to begin with. Oth- erwise, there has been less growth generally. Senator SARBANES. On the growth, as I read your figures, we had a monthly gain in employment this past month of 205,000 jobs; is that correct? Mrs. NORWOOD. In the household survey, yes. Roughly, 200,000 to 270,000 or so in the establishment survey. It's somewhere around there. You're quite correct. Senator SARBANES. Now that's about the average monthly gain in unemployment in 1986, is that correct? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. I think what you're getting at is that the employment growth has only been about enough to keep up with the increase in the labor force. Senator SARBANES. I was really getting at a point beyond that, which was that with an unemployment growth this month that was the average of the year, we got a drop of a couple tenths of a 43 point in the employment rate, whereas in other months with a roughly comparable growth we got no change in the unemployment rate. So the question is, How do you explain the combination of an average gain in employment with a decline in the unemployment rate? Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, because of the slower growth in the labor force. As you know, people are classified either as employed, out of the labor force, or unemployed, and we had a flat labor force last month. It declined very slightly, but not in a statistically significant manner, and we had employment growth. Senator SARBANES. What explains the flat labor force last month? Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, that's something I'm not sure about. As you know, there are a lot of developments that occur in the Christ- mas season. There usually is a very sharp decline in just about all of the numbers at this time of the year. This year there seem to have been, certainly in retail trade, somewhat weaker employment performance than is usual, and that may be merely that there's more efficiency in the use of labor in stores. There are longer lines, it seems to me, in many places when one wanted to go buy something. But it's hard to tell and I think we need a few more months to see what is happening. This is only 1 month. Senator SARBANES. Last year the civilian labor force rose by 2.3 million, is that correct? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. Senator SARBANES. How does this compare with the average increase in the labor force over the last 10 years? Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, as we have discussed before, the labor force growth has been slowing and it is far less than it was during the 1970's. That is largely because of the changing number of young people and the fact that while women continue to enter the labor force in large numbers, it is at a slower rate of increase than before. Senator SARBANES. I think most economists now seem to take the view that with the final GNP figure in for 1986, the economy grew at about 2.6 percent. Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. Senator SARBANES. And with this growth rate we made little improvement in the unemployment rate over the course of that year. Mrs. NORWOOD. That's correct. Senator SARBANES. And I take it the current consensus among forecasters is that the GNP will grow about 2.5 percent in this coming year. Of course, that's always a hazardous enterprise to predict. If the economy were to grow at 2.5 percent in 1987, what would you expect the effect of that to be on the unemployment rate? Mrs. NORWOOD. Obviously, the more vigorous the GNP growth, the easier it is to reduce unemployment. I think that it is generally agreed that to have sizable reductions in unemployment you need a very vigorous GNP growth. A growth rate of 2.5 to 3 percent is fairly moderate, but a great deal will depend upon expectations, upon our trade position, and upon the behavior of labor force participation. 44 Senator SARBANES. What are your expectations with respect to labor force participation? Mrs. NORWOOD. We anticipate that women will continue to enter the labor force in large numbers but at a somewhat slower pace- we saw that last year. Young people-there are fewer of them than there were in the 1970's and so fewer of them are entering the labor force. But I think that a large part of the decisions that people make are based on where the growth is, on the particular geographic areas in which they live. We have got enormous disparity from one area to another in this country, particularly in the labor market. So it's hard to generalize, but we do not expect the vigorous growth that we had in the 1970's. Senator SARBANES. You talked about people entering the labor force and you mentioned women and young people. What about people leaving the labor force? Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, there is clearly a long-term trend for adult men to be retiring earlier, and our work shows that, at least in the past, legislation which prohibits mandatory retirement had very little effect on that trend. I think that retirement decisions depend in large part on what happens to pensions in general, but in many of our manufacturing establishments one of the ways they are trying to cut back their work forces is to provide some kind of incentive for earlier retirement. Also, as plants close down, some of the older workers have to leave and they don't find new work. They subsequently may drop out of the labor force. That happens to some women, too. We found in our survey of displaced workers, for example, that some of the older workers dropped out of the labor force. Some of the women from textile plants, for example, and apparel plants, also dropped out of the labor force. Senator SARBANES. On the discouraged workers, a phenomenon which also constitutes, I take it, a dropping out from the labor force-- Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. Senator SARBANES. That figure is at 1.1 million, is that correct? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes, that's correct. Senator SARBANES. How does that compare historically, in terms of its level? Mrs. NORWOOD. It's down from the recession, but it is higher than in the 1970's, as is the number of part-time workers for economic reasons. Senator SARBANES. Let me put the question this way. Are the levels of discouraged and part-time workers for economic reasons at a high level, given that we are in the latter year of a recovery? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. They are very sticky numbers. Senator SARBANES. When you use the term "part-time" workers, what's your definition? Mrs. NORWOOD. There are two kinds of part-time workers. There are almost 14 million workers who are working part time because they want to work part time, and that's not an economic problem. But there are 5.6 million workers who are working part time because they are unable to find full-time jobs or because their hours have been cut back, and that group should be a matter of concern. 45 Senator SARBANES. How much work are we talking about when we define someone as a part-time worker for economic reasons? Mrs. NORWOOD. Less than 35 hours. Senator SARBANES. And you said that was 5.5 million workers; correct? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. Senator SARBANES. Do you have them on a scale, in terms of how much work they are getting? Mr. PLEWES. We do have that information. We don't have it here for you, Senator. We can provide it for the record. Senator SARBANES. I think that would be helpful. Mr. PLEWES. We have hours, yes. [The following information was subsequently supplied for the record:] IIOUSIIIOLD. DUlI,tIlOUSIlIIOLD_D1U" ". I ..OIL IYIIIIGZS,,'l ••OIL IYIIIIIGIIS

30.:- Persona a~ ..rt bJ lolln of .art aD4 ~JP. of 1ndl1S~rJ

1986

Rau rs of vork Percent distribution

101,857 l,OJ 6 100.0 100.0 100.0

to 'lit hours. ... II •••••• II •••••••••••••••• II I 2S,227 on 24, J50 24.3 28.9 24.2 1 to , bours•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• , 793 50 743 .8 1.6 .1 5.to , .. hoars ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• t 4,439 221 4,211 Ij,.J 7.3 4. j; 15 to 29 bours ••,: ••••••••• II •••••••••••••• , 12,45S 410 12,045 12.0 13.5 11.9 10 t.o .14 bours •••••••••• II ••••• II ••• _ ••• II I 7,541 196 1,HS 1. J 6.5 7.3 "." 1 r 35 hO'lrs and over. II •••••••••••••••••••••••• , 18,~H 2,158 '76. ,"" 15.7 71.1 75.e 35 to 39 bonrs •••••••••••••••• ~ ••••••••••• , .,. (,h'\] 147 6,855 6.1 4.8 6. E "0 hoars. •••••••••••••••••••••• II ••••••• II , 42,204 6Q4 41,600 40.6 19.9 41.3 It 1 h.ours and over••••••••••••••••••••••••• 1 29,423 1,4?7 2R,016 28. J 46.4 21. e 4' to "8 hours •••••••••••••••••••••••••• , ''',771) , 217 10,551 10.4 1. I 10. e la Q to 59 bours ...... , 10,618 1 394 1~,224 I~. 2 n.o 10. I 61\ hoars and ::Iyer •••••••••••••••••••••••• R,OlS , 796 7,219 1.1 26.2 '1. ~ 1 1 Avera1e bOQr~. total at vork •••••••••••••••• I '\9.' t 18.9 lvera7! hours. workers on full-t.irre I 1 schedqles••• ~ •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• ______43.5' -1 ______51.8 1--_I ------~-. HOOSEHOLD DATlI"ROOSEROLD DATA a.'OlL aVBUaGBSI,.ARNUlL l'BRlGES

J1. Persons at work 1 to 3Q hoars by re.son for working less than 35 boars. type of indastry. and as •• l statas

(Nurnbt!rs in thousands)

------_._---- 1 , 1986 \------·----1:------·----· I All in"ustr ies I Nonaqricultuxal industries Reason for vorkinq less than 35 hours 1--- 1 ---,----1-----:,-----:,,-- , 1 Dsually ,Osually I 1 Usually ,Usually , Total , work , work 1 Total 1 work 1 verk , 'full time ,part time Ifull Hue 'part th' ------+ I I I 'Tot.al, 16 years an" over••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 25,227 f 7,.443 t 17.7R1 24,350 I 1,146 11.20 1 I' , EconOMic ~ftsons •• '1o ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• ·, 5,588 , 1,740 I J,848 5,345' 1,644 3,101 Slack work ...... , 2,456 , 1,408 1 1.048 2.305, 1.323 ~e2 ,. at.~rial short.ages or repairs to plant and equipment •••• 1 51 t 51 I 50 , 50 New job startp.d durinq vccli; ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• , 1<)9 I 191 I 191 I 190 Job terminated ~uring week...... 82 t 82 I 80 , eo Could find only part-time work ••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 2,A,)O f t 2,8'10 2,719 I 2,11~ , 1 1 1 oth.er reasons- •••• ·•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• , 1q,6~8 I 5,10] I 13 .. Q15 19,004 t 5,502 13,502 Dop.s not vi'lnt, or un.=lvi\ilable for, full-tilTe vork ••••••• 1 11,1525 1 '11,625 ".2Q7 I 11, 2'i 1 V'ac<\tion •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 1 1,150 , 1,350 , 1,314 t 1,314 Ill~~ss ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 1 1,SQ? 1 1,449 , 148 1,564 I 1,426 oe Ba,l weathnr••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 1 510 I 51~ I 41s! ~ lIle I Ind'lstrial 1isputt'!•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 1 9 I 9 I 9 9 I Leqal or r~ligiol1s h01i"ay •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• , 967 I 86"7 I 865 e6S I rull time for this iob •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• , 1,551 I I 1,l551 1,520 , 1,520 All other reasons ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 1 2,121 I 1,518 1 ';lQ 1.9Q'J 1,1.151 I !LI' . I " t Avp.ra')'! bours: , I I I Economic r('a50n~ •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 1 21.9 I 21.1.2 t 20.9 22.0 21.1.4' 21.0 Oth",r reasonr...... 1 21.J I 26.6 I lq.~ 21.4 26.7 ( lS.2 " , worke1 10 to 14 hour", "I, 1 Econol'1ic rp.1l!';on5 •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 1 1,72Q I 7BS I 944 1,67~ 75] I S20 Oth"![' reasons ...... 1 5,A12 1 ],2»1 1 2,611 I 5,6 72 ~,12S I ;,:1.11 ----- .-_._.. _.·. ______.... ____ .. _.. ______1 ______1 ___.. ___...1 _____...1- __ --1-____1-- ____ _ 48 Senator SARBANES. I take it most of them are not at 35 hours but are well below 35 hours? Mr. PLEwES. They hover about 20 hours a week. Senator SARBANES. So they are really working half time, these part-time workers for economic reasons? Mrs. NORWOOD. That's one of the reasons that when we calculate one of the alternative unemployment rates we assume that the part time for economic reasons is just half time. Senator SARBANES. When you calculate that 7 percent unemployment rate, the part-time workers for economic reasons are considered as employed, not as unemployed; is that correct? Mrs. NORWOOD. That's correct. Anyone who works, no matter how many hours, except for unpaid family workers, is included in the employed category. Senator SARBANES. So if you're someone looking for a job and you get something for 10 or 12 hours a week you are employed as far as the unemployment figures are concerned. Even if you want to work full time, want a regular full-time job but get just a few hours work a week and pick up a little bit of income, you are re- garded as employed, not as unemployed? Mrs. NORWOOD. That's correct and that's one of the reasons that we keep emphasizing that the unemployment data really are not always a measure of economic hardship. Senator SARBANES. Do you have an index which factors in the part-time workers for economic reasons on the assumption, I guess, that they would want to work a 40-hour week, and then estimate what the unemployment rate would be if you took into account the fact that someone working 10 hours a week is in a sense three- quarters unemployed and only one-quarter employed? If you factor these people in, what unemployment rate do you get? Mrs. NORWOOD. You would get 9.1 percent in December. Senator SARBANES. 9.1 percent. Mrs. NORWOOD. That's including all the full-time jobseekers, plus half of the part-time jobseekers, plus half of the group who were working part time for economic reasons. And then we have another rate which includes, in addition to those groups, the discouraged workers that were not looking at all, and that's calculated on a quarterly basis and for the last quarter that was 10.2 percent. Senator SARBANES. So if you factor in the people who are working part time for economic reasons but want to work full time, you get a 9.1 percent unemployment rate. Then, if, in addition, you factor in the people who are in effect so discouraged they have dropped out of even looking for a job, you get 10.2 percent? Mrs. NORWOOD. That's correct. Senator SARBANES. Senator Melcher. Senator MELCHER. Commissioner Norwood, do you think this is a bullish report? Mrs. NORWOOD. I always like to report data that show that things are improving. I try not to characterize them, however. I leave that to you. Senator MELCHER. Well, is a report where the data are improving bullish? Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, it's certainly better than not to be improving. Yes, I think that these are good data. 49

Senator MELCHER. All right. How does it fit in with the record Federal deficit? It is bullish because we are spending money that creates employment, industrial activity, and economic activity? Mrs. NORWOOD. The state of the economy is obviously very much affected by fiscal and monetary policy. We have defense expenditures which create jobs and we have other expenditures which create jobs. So to that extent, the expanionist fiscal policies that we have been following should be creating jobs quite clearly. Senator MELCHER. Does the answer mean that-you know, I'm new on this Joint Economic Committee. Mrs. NORWOOD. We are delighted to have you. Senator MELCHER. You will have patience with me I trust as I ask these questions. Does your response mean that because we are spending some $200 billion more than we are taking in that we have set the stage for this rather bullish report? Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, I cannot ascribe causal relationships but it is quite clear to me and I think to every economist that expansionary policies should result in more jobs. Senator MELCHER. If we spent $200 billion more out of the Feder- al Treasury, would we have this same report? Mrs. NORWOOD. I would expect-- Senator MELCHER. Did I state that right? If we spent $200 billion less out of the Federal Treasury? Mrs. NORWOOD. Less? Senator MELCHER. Less, would we have had this bullish report? Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, it would have depended on, in the absence of this infusion of Federal funds into the economy, what happened to the private economy, and I don't know. But it is possible that there would be fewer jobs. Senator MELCHER. So it would be a higher rate and it wouldn't be a bullish report then? Mrs. NORWOOD. It wouldn't be as bullish perhaps. Senator MELCHER. Well, if this-- Mrs. NORWOOD. Two-tenths drop, you know, we are still at-- Senator MELCHER. What if it were two-tenths higher? It wouldn't be bullish, would it? Mrs. NORWOOD. As I said before, I would prefer not to categorize it. We have had a two-tenths drop. Senator MELCHER. It wouldn't be a good report? We'll use your lingo. Mrs. NORWOOD. We've had a two-tenths drop in the unemployment rate. We are still at a very high level. We need to have data for several more months to see whether we are really on a downward trend or whether we will just continue at the current level. So I think before categorizing the report, we really ought to think about the data in a longer timeframe. Senator MELCHER. Well, getting back to the basics, it's a good report, in your judgment-and that would be pretty important judgment-would it be a good report instead of saying 6.8 if it said 7.1? It would not be a good report? Mrs. NORWOOD. I much prefer to see unemployment go down than to see it go up. Senator MELCHER. Well, that isn't the question, though. If it were 7.1 would you describe it as a good report? 50 Mrs. NORWOOD. As I told you, I prefer not to describe the report as good or bad. Senator MELCHER. Well, you just did, Commissioner. Mrs. NORWOOD. The reason that the Joint Economic Committee is interested in having the Bureau of Labor Statistics' view is because we try to remain as objective as possible. It is better to report data that show that more people are working than to report data that show that more people are unemployed, clearly. Senator MELCHER. Well, I hope you will be patient with me, but I want to understand this. I used the word "bullish" and you preferred not to. Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. Senator MELCHER. But then you brought out the word "good"- it's a "good" report. Now my question is simply this. If it were 7.1, would you describe it as a good report? Mrs. NORWOOD. I would say that we are remaining at a very high level and if it had gone up I would try to look at where that was happening and again comment to the committee that we would need to look at this in a longer timeframe to see whether that's sustained. Senator MELCHER. Now can I conclude that you don't-you know, I'm going to get it one way or the other. It's a good report. That's your term. I don't want to use the word "bad" because that would be ascribing a word to you that you might- not like to use. But would you describe it as a good report if it were 7.1? Mrs. NORWOOD. I really don't think that the Joint Economic Committee needs to have me characterize the report one way or the other. What you want to know is what has happened. What has happened is that we have had a drop in unemployment now. If we came back next month and said there was an increase in unemployment, that would be important for you to know, too. Senator MELCHER. Maybe we ought to strike the word "good." What about even striking the word "good" since I think that's what you prefer to do, and-- Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes, I do. May I just say that when we are talking about people who are unemployed, if the group goes down, there are still people who are without jobs who want them and even if the unemployment rate dropped a great deal, I don't think those people would think this was a good report. So we need to be careful about using adjectives. Senator MELCHER. Well, to return to the Federal deficit, I think I can assume from your responses that the fact that there was a high level of spending, including the $200 billion deficit, that that has something to do with this report being a decline in umemploy- ment. Now what about the trade deficit? That's $170 billion. Where does that figure at? How did we get all this improvement if we've got the two key deficits getting larger? Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, the trade deficit has been having, I believe, two kinds of effects. One is that because of the increased competition and increased imports, our manufacturing establishments have been honing down-they have been attempting to make themselves more efficient and to drop what they may consider to be unnecessary labor in order to produce the product. Our production 51 has not gone down very much and our output has not gone down very much, but employment in manufacturing clearly has gone down quite a lot. So that's one aspect of this issue. The other, of course, is that trade has had a distinct effect on our price levels and now that exchange rates are finally seeming to take some effect, most economists expect that there will be an increase in our exports. That should help to sustain jobs in the manufacturing establishments. We have had, of course, a lot of growth. Most of the growth has been in the service-producing sector. That's not unusual for an economy of our type, but that's where the growth has been. Senator MELCHER. You know, Commissioner, are you familiar with what State I come from? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. Senator MELCHER. Montana. Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. There are serious problems in Montana. Senator MELCHER. I'll say. Let me tell you a conversation I had with an entrepreneur in Montana. He said, "The tax bill was bad for me." It removed capital gains and apparently he had a balloon payment coming in next year on some property. I think he said it cost him close to a million dollars because capital gains would be gone. That paints a picture of a fairly affluent person. I said, "How are the kids?" He said, "They're both at home and that's what I really want to talk to you about. The kids are in their mid-20's, out on their own. They're both at home now. The best jobs they can get are something less than 30 hours a week, no way of supporting themselves on that-30 hours a week at low pay at one of the retail outlets that sell average to low priced merchandise of a great variety." As I understood your answers to Chairman Sarbanes, people employed like that are counted as employed. Is that right? Mrs. NORWOOD. That's correct. Senator MELCHER. Did I understand you to say that there are about 5 million of such people that are employed in similar circumstances that really want to work 40 hours in order to attempt to make a living? Mrs. NORWOOD. And who have not been able to find full-time jobs, yes, 5.5 million. Senator MELCHER. 5.5 million. Mrs. NORWOOD. 5.6 million. Senator MELCHER. Is that a pretty accurate figure? Mrs. NORWOOD. I believe so. Senator MELCHER. Has it been going up? Mrs. NORWOOD. No, it has actually been-it depends on what year you compare it to. It was much, much higher during the very steep recession of 1981-82. It has come down considerably since then, but it is extraordinarily high for the beginning of a 5th year of a recovery. Senator MELCHER. In other words, ordinarily it would be going down at this stage? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. One would have hoped that at this stage of the business cycle that group would be somewhat lower. Senator MELCHER. That's pretty flat then. 52

Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. You know, we have done a supplement to the current population survey which asked people about multiple job holding, which is another issue that we are very interested in. Some people may not have one full-time job. They may be holding two jobs that may together add up as one full-time job. There has been a large increase in multiple job holding. That can be both good and bad. Some people may be trying to work two jobs because they can't get along on the lower pay of the first job, but some may be putting-and there is some evidence that some people may be putting two jobs together because that fits their schedules better and they may be satisfied with that. There's a lot of variety out there. Senator MELCHER. Nevertheless, this 5.5 million-is it 5.5 million people that you speak of holding jobs at less than 40 hours a week as part-time jobs-they are not included-where they hold two jobs to make a full-time job they're not part of this 5.5 million, are they? Mrs. NORWOOD. That's right. Senator MELCHER. The 5.5 million are actually people unemployed? Mrs. NORWOOD. They could be called partially unemployed. Senator MELCHER. This fellow with these two children, said, "Where is this country going with the trade deficit, the Federal deficit? Even in the 1930's real estate appreciated. It hasn't appreciated in 1986 and it likely won't appreciate in 1987. Nor did it appreciate in 1985." Is that true? Mrs. NORWOOD. It may be true in Montana. It is not true in some other parts. It's certainly not true in the Boston area I can tell you. Senator MELCHER. He was not citing Montana. He was citing national figures. I just wonder if you know if it's true? Mrs. NORWOOD. There is a big variety from one area to another. Clearly, in farm and mining communities, asset values have decelerated and really just dropped terribly. In some other central urban areas, housing prices have gone up. So there is a good deal of uncertainty caused by the changes in tax legislation, some of which were retroactive and some of which are only now coming into effect as to what will happen to construction in general, both residential and nonresidential. Senator MELCHER. He was citing national figures. Do you have national figures? Mrs. NORWOOD. I can supply that for the record. Senator MELCHER. That's not part of your data? Mrs. NORWOOD. No. Senator MELCHER. Now I want to turn to the inflation comment you made. Senator SARBANES. Would the Senator yield just a moment? Senator MELCHER. Yes. Senator SARBANES. I think one point that ought to be made here, which refers to past discussions, is that the unemployment figure does not take into account the amount of economic suffering that may take place. A farmer in Montana, or for that matter anywhere else, or a small businessman close to bankruptcy, are regard- 53 ed as employed so long as they are still struggling to get by; is that correct? Mrs. NORWOOD. That's right. So long as he reports that he is working and that he is not looking for work. Senator SARBANES. It's only when he goes under, so to speak, when he crosses that final line and closes up shop or a farm that he then becomes an unemployment figure? Mrs. NORWOOD. Even then, Senator Sarbanes, there are a lot of farmers who are in great difficulty, of course, and therefore have some job off the farm. So if the farmer were to go under and still keep the small job or part-time job that he has off the farm, he would still be counted as employed. What we try to do in our labor force survey is to collect data- what we would call hard data. We try to obtain specific information. You ask someone if he or she is working, has worked for 1 hour or more during the survey week. That's a specific kind of question and that's one of the reasons that the data on discouraged workers-which relate to a state of mind-is something that we collect but don't include in the unemployment rate. Senator SARBANEs. Thank you. Senator MELCHER. I want to turn to the portion of your testimony that deals with inflation, the Producer Price Index. The industries that we have in Montana, our major industries, of course, are basic to the country-agriculture, forest products, mining metals, and energy. If we have economic recovery for these basic industries, the prices would be increased. What impact might that have on the Producer Price Index rate of inflation? Mrs. NORWOOD. An increase in farm prices would clearly raise the Producer Price Index to some extent and would raise consumer prices, particularly food prices. Senator MELCHER. And energy-the same? Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, yes, if there is a large increase in energy. We certainly saw that in the 1970's. Senator MELCHER. Would $4 a barrel for oil be a large increase? Mrs. NORWOOD. Pardon me. Senator MELCHER. Would $4 a barrel for oil be a large increase? Mr. DALTON. $4 a barrel would show up in the figures. I can't recall offhand what the equivalency is for dollars per barrel to the index, but I think it's roughly a tenth of a percent on the CPI on all items for a dollar increase. Senator MELCHER. So it would be four-tenths? Mr. DALTON. I think so. Senator MEwCHmI. And metals-I think you mentioned aluminum being about the same average price as it was in 1985; copper, the same. Lumber you say is about the same average, 1986 over 1985? Mr. DALTON. That's on average for the entire category of intermediate goods. Senator MELCHER. Is that lumber? Mr. DALTON. Lumber is in that group. Specifically whether lumber is at its level of 1984 or not, I don t know; but on average that group of intermediate goods is now at the level it was in De- cember 1984. 54 Mrs. NORWOOD. I can tell you that, for example, hardwood lumber is really about 5 percent above the level of last year. Softwood lumber is 6.5 percent above that level. Mill work is 1.8 percent above the level of last year and plywood only 1.3 percent. Wood pulp is up quite a lot. Senator MELCHER. So somehow we've got inflation holding steady simply because basic industries such as energy and forest products and agriculture have gone down and the noncrude minerals have gone down over the past several years and are staying down. So, if we are to have a recovery, as we must, I believe we have to have a recovery in these basic industries for the health of the general economy. Don't we have to have a recovery for these basic industries for the long-term general health of the general economy of the United States? Mrs. NORWOOD. We are seeing a restructuring of industry in this country. Some of our durable manufacturing industries will proba- ly not come back, at least to the extent that they did before, especially in employment. In many cases, they are reducing labor costs significantly and, as a result, should be able to do well with lower prices. But that varies from one place to another and from one industry to another. For example, we are not seeing that sort of thing happening in automobiles where prices are continuing to go up in spite of some of the competitive pressures. Senator MELCHER. Now let's take energy, just one of these basic industries. Mrs. NORWOOD. Energy, of course, is something that is largely out of our control. It depends in large part on whether the decisions taken by the OPEC group of countries really stick and there is a lot of speculation that it may not by people who know much more about that than I do. It is very clear that the double-digit inflation that we had in the 1970's was very much affected by the upward pull of energy prices and it is also clear that a significant part of our good-I shouldn't use that word-of our lower price performance-our decelerated inflation in recent years has been the result of downward pull from energy prices. That's quite clear. Senator MELCHER. Commissioner, I notice you always use the term "double-digit" inflation. I think we ought to use somewhere in the range of where we are at now as compared to double-digit. In other words, what are we at in inflation-about 2? All right. Let's use somewhere between 2 and 9. The increase in oil prices by $4 a barrel described, if you use that rule of thumb, is four-tenths of 1 percent. What if agricultural commodities went up 10 or 15 percent average in price? Do we have any rule of thumb there? Mrs. NORWOOD. No, I don't think so, because a lot of this depends on the interaction of these forces. If oil prices go up, for example, then that generally flows through the economy and that's really what happened in the 1970's. One has to look at all the secondary effects as well. We have found through many years of attempting to analyze price data that one does not always see price changing through from the various stages of process-crude, intermediate, and finished-right into consumer prices. We may have increases in the producer price area 55 in producer prices which are not necessarily reflected-at least not very quickly-in consumer prices. There are a lot of adjustments that are made. So one needs to look very specifically at each situation. As I said in my statement, it's quite clear that there are some elements of the price deceleration that are causing great difficulty for some groups of the population. Senator MELCHER. I'm trying to look at the-if there's going to be economic recovery in basic industries the price increase is the only way they are going to get economic recovery for mining, agriculture, forest products, or energy. Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, on manufacturing, I would expect that recovery increases in sales of manufactured products will probably only take place if we become more competitive, and I think that is one of the things that is happening with the industry restructuring that we are seeing. Senator MELCHER. I'll go on. If we're going to get the price improvement or economic recovery, we've got to have the price improvement for these basic industries. So I would suspect then we would be talking about an inflationary rate somewhere above 2 percent and perhaps less than 9 percent. I don't want to lead you into making a projection that you can't work up from your data on some sort of figures. But isn't that what we need in this country, some recovery in these basic industries, and therefore, a higher rate which will automatically relate to a higher rate of inflation? Mrs. NORWOOD. I think we need continued growth of jobs and I think we need also to have programs to help people who are not able to cope in the labor market. I would hope that we do not need-in order to do these things, I would hope that we do not need to rekindle inflation. Senator MELCHER. Well, that's a hope. If we're going to create- you're not writing off these basic industries at all, as I understand your responses. You're just saying tighten your belt and get more efficient. Mrs. NORWOOD. What I'm saying is that we seem to be keeping up production with fewer people. That's a problem for us because there's an adjustment process. We are still maintaining our output but there are many people who are in great difficulty. I would be the first to underscore that. Senator MELCHER. Well, I will return to where I was. You're not writing off the basic industries such as energy, forest products, agriculture, and minerals; you're just saying that somehow you hope they can survive at lower prices? I think that's fair to say that, based on your comments here. Mrs. NORWOOD. Senator-- Senator MELCHER. Is that fair to say that, what I have just said? Mrs. NORWOOD. Senator, I am here to report to you on what our data show and what we know about what's going on in the economy. I am frankly rather pleased that I am not in a position to be here to try to tell you what to do about it. That I leave to the very good judgment of the Congress. Senator MELCHER. Thank you very much. You're so generous. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. 56

Senator SARBANES. I have just a few questions to follow up on some of the questions Senator Melcher was asking. In fact, if the other components of the price index were to turn in a better performance, you could have an increase in the prices in these very hard-hit sectors and still come out overall without an increase in prices, could you not? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. Senator SARBANES. I don't think I got the answer to one question Senator Melcher asked. A 10 percent increase in the price of agricultural products would, by your estimates, have much of an impact on the Consumer Price Index? Mr. DALTON. Well, if we look at the CPI food component and assume that goes up 10 percent, rather than agricultural prices- the food component is 18.5 percent of the total index. So 10 percent of 18.5 percent would be its impact, roughly 2 percent. Senator SARBANES. So that would be- a 2 percent impact on the CPI? Mr. DALTON. Right. Senator MELCHER. Would you yield, Mr. Chairman? Senator SARBANES. Yes. Senator MELCHER. I think we're getting mixed up here. A 10 percent increase in corn prices is one thing and a 10 percent-or what you might project as being a 10 percent improvement in the price of hogs or cattle. All right. Let's just take cattle, a 10 percent improvement in the price of cattle, slaughtered cattle. That will not reflect-well, I guess maybe it would. Senator SARBANES. No; 18 percent of the Consumer Price Index represents the cost of food purchased by the consumer in the store. Mr. DALTON. That's right. Senator SARBANES. Now the 10 percent increase we're talking about is not a 10 percent increase in that price. It's a 10 percent increase in the price paid to the original producer. Mr. DALTON. That's why I said let's assume it's a 10 percent increase-- Senator SARBANES. On the 18 percent of the cost of food, what part is made up of the cost paid to the original producers, as distinct from everything else that happens in the chain before the consumer goes to the store? Do we know that? Mrs. NORWOOD. Mr. Chairman, there have been many people- lots of people who have worked many years trying to look at the flow of price change through the various stages of processing and then into the supermarkets. It's an extraordinarily difficult thing to do and there are a lot of unknowns. We don't really know what happens always or what is going to happen in the future between the time that a product leaves the farm and it arrives on the shelves for people to buy. And as you quite rightly point out, Senator Melcher, there are great differences. There's a big difference in fruits and vegetables and in meat and fish and we are not equipped I think to do that kind of analysis. Senator MELCHER. Mr. Chairman, if you would yield further? I have lost track of how you are keeping your statistics. For a couple of decades your statistics took the market basket-or whatever term you now call it-for food at the retail level. 57 Mrs. NORWOOD. That's right. Senator MELCHER. Don't you do that yet? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes, we have done that. Senator MELCHER. Well, you know, I used to look at that and look at what you had for beef. Mrs. NORWOOD. All right. Senator MELCHER. You had just what the typical housewife would carry home for the family and you could relate that in-if slaughtered cattle went up $5 a 100, you had a figure. Mrs. NORWOOD. No, that's not quite correct. Senator MELCHER. You don't have that any more? You used to. You need to have that figure. Mrs. NORWOOD. The Department of Agriculture used to do some changes of that kind. What we can tell you is that in our market basket there no certain cuts of beef, pork and other things. We can tell you that just because of the way in which the index is calculated and the weight of each of those items in the index, we can give you an estimate of what would happen if the price of those cuts of beef went up by 10 percent or by 5 percent or by 20 percent. But we cannot tell you what happens if the price at the farm for hogs, for example, goes up by any particular percentage. The De- partment of Agriculture used to do work of that kind and, as I indicated to the chairman, there are a lot of people who try to look at those relationships, but it's extraordinarily difficult and we are not in that business. Senator MELCHER. Well, Mr. Dalton, I will ask you specifically, do you have that historical information? Let's assume that at some point in 1975 when the price of slaughtered cattle averaged $62, $6 higher than they are now, you had a figure for what that costs at the retail level, did you not? Mr. DALTON. We had figures for what the cost of the various cuts of meat in that basket were-or really what the change in the price of those items was over some period of time. Senator MELCHER. Month by month? Mr. DALTON. Month by month. The question that we really can't answer with any degree of accuracy is what is the final result in the supermarket of a price increase that takes place at the farm or any much earlier stage of production. Senator MELCHER. Well, you have the historical data. That's all I'm saying. Mr. DALTON. Yes. Well, we have historical index numbers that cover food in the grocery store and food at the farm level and food at the finished level before retail, and we can look at those relationships. But what we're saying is that we can't, with any degree of accuracy, predict what will happen from a given percentage increase in farm prices-what will happen then to retail prices. That's why I made the asssumption-I wasn't trying to assume away the problem-but I made the assumption that the food component itself went up in the CPI 10 percent and what the impact of that would be. Senator SARBANES. But that wasn't the thrust of our question. Mr. DALTON. Yes, I understand. Mrs. NORWOOD. We are not able to answer the thrust of your question. 58

Senator MELCHER. But you could relate it to historical data? Mr. DALTON. You could look at the historical relationships, yes. Mrs. NORWOOD. I'm not sure how valuable that would be in today's world, however. Senator MELCHER. Well, I'm sure you would have to make some adjustments. Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, you've got all kinds of intermediate costs. Senator MELCHER. What the rest of the costs came to, but I think maybe the point is simply this: a 10 percent price improvement in slaughtered cattle-and that is the price of what the cattle are worth on the hoof on the farm-might only result in an increase of 1 percent to the consumer. Mrs. NORWOOD. It's possible. I really don't know. Senator SARBANES. Or even less if the price paid the original producer is only one-third of the price the consumer pays and the other two-thirds is added on. If you assume that the add-on costs will remain constant, which is not necessarily an unreasonable assumption, then if the producer payments go up by 10 percent, even using your figures, you have about a half a point on the index? Isn't that correct? Mr. DALTON. Well-- Senator SARBANES. Six-tenths of a point? Mr. DALTON. If the raw materials costs, if you will, is a third of the final price and that goes up 10 percent, then I guess it's roughly 3.3 that you would get in the final product-3.3 percent increase after it's been through the other intermediate areas-transportation, retail, et cetera. Mrs. NORWOOD. But we know that there have been considerable shifts in the cost of the intermediate points when looking at things historically. Trucking costs, for example, have gone up a great deal. There are a variety of ways in which when a price increase occurs some of it is passed on, some of it is not passed on, depending upon the particular economic conditions of the moment. All we are saying is that we are measuring prices at the producer level, we are measuring prices at the consumer level, and those relationships and those forecasts are things that we cannot help you very much with. Senator SARBANES. Let me ask you, do you maintain figures on the benefits workers are receiving? In other words, how many of them have health insurance coverage? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. We have a level of benefits survey which finds out about the incidence of fringe benefits-life insurance, health insurance, other things-in the larger establishments. That does not go down to the small establishments. We cut it off at 100 employees. We also have had in the past and have been considering in the future the possibility of adding some questions to the current population survey, particularly on some of the issues that appear to be important now. Senator SARBANES. Are there any trends as to what's happening in that area? Mr. STELLUTO. In the intermediate and large establishments, yes. We have had that annual survey since 1979 and we have data now 59 from 1979 through 1985 and the 1986 data will be out this spring in preliminary form. So there are trend data. Mrs. NORWOOD. We will supply it for the record. [The following information was subsequently supplied for the record:]

79-018 0 - 88 - 3 60

Employee Benefits in Medium and Large Firms, 1985

U S Department of Labor William E. Brock, Secretary Bureau of Labor Statistics Janet L. Norwood, Commissioner July 1986

Bulletin 2262

Preface

This bulletin presents results of a 1985 Bureau of La- dstical procedures used in the benefits survey. bor Statistics survey of the incidence and provisions of The analysis in this bulletin was prepared in the Of- employee benefit plans in medium and large firms. The fice of Wages and Industri Relations by the staff of survey-the seventh in an nnua series-provides rep- the Division of Occupational Pay and Employee Bene- resentative data for 20.5 million fuI-time employees in fit Lev&s Computer programming and sytems design a cross-section of the Nation's private industries. It was were provided by the Division of Directly Collected initially designed to provide the Office of Personnel Periodic Surveys. The Division of Wage Statstcal Management with information on private sector prac- Methods was responsible for the sample design, non- does for use in comparisons with benefits of Federal reponse adjutments, sample error computions, and workers. The survey's scope, therefore, is the same as other statisti procedures Fieldwork for the survey that of an annual Bureau survey of occupational sala- was diirected by the Bureau's Assistant Regional Com- ries in the private sector-the National Survey of Pro- missioners for Operations. fessonal Administrative, TechnicaI, and Clerica Pay, Pictured on the cover of this bulletin is The Optome- which provides comparative daft for evaluating Fed- irin by Norman Rockwell reprinted with permission end pay rates for white-collar occupations Appendix from The SaturdUe E)eung Port (c) 1956 by The Curtis A provides a detailed description of the scope and sta- Publishing Company. 61

Contents

.PWg Chapter I . Introduction I Chapter 2.. Work schedules and paid time off 4 Work schedules...... 4 Paid hunch and rest periods.4 Paid holidays ...... 4 Paid vacations ...... , ., , , , ,.,.4 Personal leave. 4 Funeral leave, jury duty leave, and military leave ...... 5 Chapter 3. Disabilty benefits.I1 Paid sick leave.I Sickness and accident insurance .12 Long-term disability insurance ...... 12 Chapter 4. Health and life insurance ...... 25 Health insurance ...... 25 Life insurance ...... 29 Chapter 5. Defined benefit pension plans ...... 49 Chapter 6. Defined contribution plans ...... 72 Salary reduction plans ...... 73 Savings and thrift plans ...... 73 Employee stock ownership plans ...... 74 Profit sharing plans...... 74 Chapter 7. Other benefits ...... 81 Charts: I. Major medical plans: Trendsinselecteddeductibleamounts, 1979-85 ...... 27 2. Health insurance: Selected types of medical care, 1984-85 ...... 28 3. Contributory health insurance: Average monthly employee contributions, 1982-85 .... 30 4. Private defined benefit pension plans: Average replacement rate based on 30 years of service including and excluding Social Security payments ...... 51 5. Private defined benefit pension plans: Distribution of ful-time participants by monthly benefits based on earnings of S30,000 in the final year of servie ...... 52 Tables: Introduction 1. Summary: Particpationin employee benefit programs, 1985 ...... 3 Work schedules and paid time off 2. Work schedules: Number of hours scheduled per week ...... 6 Paid time off: 3. Lunch time: Minues per day ...... 6 4. Rest time: Minutes per day ...... 6 62

Contents-Continued

Page Paid time off-Continued S. Holidays and vacations: Average number of days ...... 6 6. Holidays: Numberof days providedeach year ...... 7 7. Holidays: Policy on holidays that falDon a regularlys cheduled day off...... 7 8. Vacations: Amount provided at selected periods of service...... 8 9. Vacations: Length of service required to take vacation ...... 9 10. Personal leave: Number of days provided per year ...... 9 11. Funeral leave: Number of days available per occurrence...... 9 12. Jury duty leave: Number of days available per occurrence ...... 10 13. Military leave: Numberof days available per year...... 10 Disability benefits 14. Short-term disability coverage: Participation in sickness and accident 14 insurance plans and paid sick leave plans...... Paid sick leave: 15. Typeofprovision ...... 14 16. Byprovision...... I5 17. Average number of days at full pay by type of plan...... 16 18. Annual plans: Average number of days at full pay by accumulation policy and sickness and accident insurance coordination ...... : ...... 17 19. Annual plans by unusedsick leave policy and carryover provisions ...... 8 Sickness and accident insurance: 20. Type and duration ofpayments ...... 19 21. Percent of earnings formula by maximum weekly benefit 22 22. Length-of-servic requirements for participation ...... 23 Long-term disability insurance: 23. Method of determining payment ...... 23 24. Duration of benefits ...... : 24, 25. Laigth-of-service requirements for participation ...... 24 Health and life Insurance Health insurance: 26. Coverage for selected categories of medical care ...... 32 27. Coverage after retirement by benefit provisions and age of retiree ...... 33 28. Basic hospital room and board coverage bytype of benefit payments and limits to coverage ...... 34 29. Basic surgical benefits by maximum allowance for selected procedures ...... 35 30. Major medical coverage by amount of deducible and applicable benefit period...... 36 31. Major medical coverage by coinsurance provisions ...... 37 32. Major medical coverage by maximum benefit provisions ...... 38 33. Dental benefits by extent of coverage for selected procedures ...... 39 34. Dental benefits by deductible provision ...... 40 35. Dental benefits by yearly maximum amount of insurance ...... 40 36. Orthodontic benefits by lifetime maximum amount of coverage ...... 41 37. Mental health benefits by extent of benefits ...... 41 38. Vision benefits by extent of benefits ...... 42 39. Coverage for selected special benefits ...... 42 40. Selected cost containment features ...... 42 41. Contributory plans by type and amount of employee contribution ...... 43 42. Length-of-service requirements for participation ...... 43 43. Funding medium for selected types of coverage ...... 44 63

Contents-Continued

Page Tables-Continued Lift insurance: 44. Method of determining amount of basic life insurance and frequency of related coverages ...... 45 45. Multiple-of-earnings formulas by amount of basic insurance and maximum coverage provisions ...... 46 46. Flat dollar insurance by amount of basic insurance ...... 47 47. Length-of-service requirements for participation ...... 48 48. Effect of retirement on coverage ...... 48 Defined benefit pension plans 49. Method of determining retirement payments ...... 56 50. Terminal earnings benefit formulas by type and amount of formula ...... 57 51. Terminal earnings benefit formulas by definition of terminal earnings ...... 58 52. Career earnings benefit formulas by type and amount of forsnula ...... 59 53. Dollar amount benefit formulas by type and amount of formula ...... 59 54. Provision for integration with Social Security benefit ...... 60 55. Maximum benefit provisions ...... :.61 56. Average replacement rates for specified final earnings and years of service ...... Q2...... 57. Minimum age and associated service requirements for normal retirement ...... 63 58. Minimum age and associated service requirements for early retirement ...... 64 59. Early retirement by reduction factor for immediate start of payments ...... 65 60. Provisions for disability retirement ...... 65 61. Provision for credit for service after age 65 ...... 66 62. Ad hoc postretirement annuity increases ...... 67 63. Vesting schedules ...... 69 64. Provision for postretirement survivor annuity ...... 69 65. Provision for preretirement survivor annuity ...... 70 66. Age and length-of-service requirements for participation ...... 71 Defined contribution plans 67. Retirement and capital accumulation plan coverage ...... 75 68. Type of defined contribution and stock plans ...... 75 69. Combinations of retirement and capital accumulation plans ...... 75 70. Salary reduction plans ...... 76 Savings and thrift plans: 71. Age and service requirements for participation . . . 76 72. Maximum employee contribution ...... 77 73. Pre-tax employee contributions ...... 77 74. Provision for employer matching contributions ...... 78 75. Provision for investment of employer and employee contributions ...... 79 76. Vesting schedules ...... so 77. Provisions for withdrawal of employer contributions g0...... 78. Method of distribution of account at retirement g0...... Other benefits 79. Percent of employees eligible ...... 72 Appendixes: A. Technical note ...... 83 B. Availability of the survey's data base ...... 89 64

Chapter 1. Introduction

The employee benefits survey collects data on em- Highlights ployee work schedules and develops information on The great majority of full-time workers within the the incidence and detailed characteristics of 14 private scope of the survey were provided with health and life sector employee benefits paid for at least in part by the insurance and private retirement plans, as well as paid employer. These include lunch and rest periods, holi- holidays and vacations (table 1). Provisions of many days and vacations; personal, funeral, jury duty, mili- employee benefits differed markedly between white- tary, and sick leave; sickness and accident, long-term and blue-collar workers. disability, health, and life insurance; and private retire- On the average, employees received about 10 paid ment/capital accumulation plans. In addition, data are holidays each year. The number of days of paid vaca- collected on the incidence of 17 other employee bene- tion, increasing with years of service, averaged nearly fits, including severance pay, financial counseling, pre- 16 days at 10 years and 21 days at 20 years. For three paid legal services, nonproduction bonuses, employee other paid leave benefits available to a majority of the discounts, educational assistance, relocation allowances, employees, funeral leave averaged about 3 days per oc- and child care. The major findings of the 1985 survey currence and military leave averaged nearly 12 days a are reported in this bulletin. year; time off for paid jury duty was usually provided The survey covers full-time employees in medium as needed. and large establishments (generally those with at least Ninety-three percent of all employees had some pro- 100 or 250 employees, depending upon the industry). tection against temporary loss of income due to illness Because data collection is limited to provisions of for- or accident through either sick leave or sickness and mal plans, the extent of such benefits as rest periods accident insurance, or both. Sick leave generally con- and personal leave may be understated. Furthermore, tinned the worker's full salary beginning on the first the data show the coverage of benefit plans but not the day of an illness or accident, while insured benefits re- actual use of these benefits; for example, that part of placed less than full pay and began after an initial wait- available paid sick leave actually used. ing period. Most employees also had some protection Data are presented separately for three occupational against extended loss of income due to disability; 48 groups- professional-administrative, techmical-clerical, percent had long-term disability insurance, and 41 per- and production workers. This bulletin often discusses cent were covered under private defined benefit pen- the first two groups jointly as white-collar workers, in sion plans that provided immediate disability benefits. contrast with production or blue-collar workers. Virtually all of the participants in health insurance Respondents provide information on the number of plans were covered for most categories of expenses re- workers covered by specified benefit plans. Workers lated to hospital and medical care. Life insurance was are counted as covered by wholly employer-financed provided for nearly all employees, most commonly for plans that required a minimum amount of service prior an amount equal to annual earnings, rounded to the to receiving benefits, even if they had not met the mini- next $1,000. mum service requirement at the time of the survey. Eighty percent of the employees in the survey were Where plans-such as health or life insurance-require covered by defined benefit pension plans, which have an employee to pay part of the cost (contributory plans), formulas for determining an employee's annuity. Bene- workers are counted only if they elect the plan and pay fits were most frequently based on earnings during the their share of the cost Data on insured benefit plans last 5 years of employment Common eligibility require- and private retirement and capital accumulation plans ments for normal retirement were: Age 65 with no are thus limited to 'participants." Plans for which only specified length-of-service requirement, age 62 with 10 administrative costs are paid by the employer are not years of service, and 30 years of service with no age included in the survey.' requirement Virtually all covered employees could retire early with a reduced pension, provided they ful- filled minimum age and service requirements (most com- 'A. Mos, bowo- i. sde in table 27 aad 45. which tb- Wepsfsr~e t lath and lif. m e meC.. Pih aude. monly, age 55 with 10 years of service). which i -Y the NH oal - iat-jded iam the gsota or Fifty-three percent of the employees participated in i-nbility at oup meua, ina itdf, cdd a heat. one or more of the following defined contribution plans: 65 savings and thrifi, employee stock ownership, profit ment of educational expenses were available to at least slaring, money purchase pension, or stock bonus plans. three-fourths of the employees. Supplemental un- Twenty-six percent of the employees were in salary re- employment benefits, subsidized commuting, prepaid duction or 401(k) plans. These plans allow participants legal services, child care, and company sponsored re- to reduce their taxable income by channeling part of imbursement accounts for payment of such items as their salary to retirement funds, deferring income tax medical expenses not covered by health insurance were until withdrawal available to less than one-tenth of the employees Free or subsidized parking, and full or parttal defray- 66

Table 1. Surnmr. Pent 01ofthut empblyees by pwrllpeian' in mploy benefit pragrus, meium 2nd large firms" 1985

EmpbSpicgnm Clil ~~~Prnladanland Tanitl and dlm Pbont eh

Pekt HaIdye go 98 100 98 Vllorr4 .. 9__.____ . ..9D 100 93 Paaenlln_ . _ 28 33 37 18 .ra ported 10 3 3 17 Re I ....._ ._...... 72 s8 70 81 FatursiI_.n . a 87 89 87 JMubtyhlene .....-.... _ . . 92 94 96 89 MilitayI me.t 70 77 75 9 3 Sl-AbI. . _... 87 93 92 41

9e and .att hI..a...e 52 30 38 70 t-rtplry9eYarorta d ...... _ 43 23 31 li Paotyar pr rnnd ._...... 8 7 7 9

L.ng-t r da tly _ ...... 48 04 li 32 Wb.DnnrVlnnftad ...11. r 38 49 48 27 Paeryatrtpay.rr*erfnd ...9m d c. 15 13 5

Hll a ...... 99 97 95 95 W fyatl part_ ...... _ 8..1 54 51 5 9 Pa y tepl r 9i ne ...... 35 42 44 27 Fanilycoge: Wh1.ry _ ____nd ...... _ 42 38 33 50 Prt pln_ em _ ...... 53 e o 82 45

Lft.lh ne .. _ 95 97 95 98 W Idyapl r nn n ...... _ 8 85 85 87 Per..e.Pl R bn ..... 11 12 11 10

Re T.art ...... 91 93 93 83 Datd betM pten..t______80 81 82 78 Whe.yetpoy. fr a...... _.nn...... _ 72 72 78 70 P"em -tpb nt_ _ ...... 9 8 8 Dotted ntutin plan 41 49 49 32 WVoftyetp"net le d...... _ 28 32 32 24 P.*tplly artbe d ..nr. 13 17 17 8

Cay l ...... -.... 20 29 20 13 Whaltyairpn.a ,rh rn d...... 3 4 4 3 Paril lonyar nudW ...... 17 28 21 11

Plt - enrken are li peaw91 lt Im a patate i beth dated beet an dameydem re~o ar ntye eatra e eplel 8npbmyeE n tlentoIn a p linrtt - Dotteld ar n plan etde tn pned rt tm~nt rap*a.t bdorW ty cre- ltarfbart rIM - pe.n prnlt earbg, et eand dtn. bae a etk aruthe-d en pb 9 -no8f eh nW.1 Ot rarp anl et ek ttaep plt it th mernl rli 19 reltelh Ihee 1 of eae. if e mpe- pd to paype rf V.e In t. patnt e -W ttnr auge,dealteabft, toe at a Dmet oray tet alr eDfte ea py 8.W aepa toa erMce, eg 59 1/2, or hardNp. ae- n- antd an p pn. Be tr thrt theanrplny ' Enplayae prtag In t-8 or -n plt e tned t tuentpY O. hePt -oaerttaldaOpf aM8 -y.eoft Oo paldpn. in ttty apl nanaedpln. oan 0 all pla atai anpilyee ar tertd en P.Irtatn., tettee ar tacldad na bAnny. 'S eppetr A ta rope a edy and MMo atoa-f I*1uda pila hi oh plbyr abun ay be tbe- lanwI pgpa. drat fla pdrbap.nt - pn tetatnago_, deaV%db- ' I.le 0.7 peamt of enmapb St pla Dta1d nat nr ey, nwpafatner -ea, ago 58 lZ a horrdhkp.Emde -* tear pP- Ca panlMAO.. elackaploMnd Stldk puo ph. * lIr prarr h r waty Dte plD at nay terbtt1te aOs Dot nOfnkpplnnttel pan h h-ta breli atn. NOTEt,Be of tn g. of ha*ttew te 1t nt 9qortal pen- nM IWtDald lIhDo bth. ral Ita. 'TheTh. b lea.W.rn Do- ma.- Do ht it ba- 67

Chapter 2. Work Schedules and Paid Time Off

Time off with pay is available to employees in sev- an additional day's pay, depending on when the holi- eral different forms and amounts-from daily rest pe- day fell. riods to annual vacations of several weeks. In 1985, survey coverage of paid leave benefits was expanded Paid vacations (tables 5, 8, and 9) Virtually all employees in each occupational group to include provisions for funeral leave, jury duty leave, and military leave. were provided paid vacations. At 15 years of service, ful-time employees commonly received 20 days of paid Work schedules (table 2) vacation annually. Vacation provisions averaged 8.7 Weekly work schedules of 40 hours applied to 83 days at I year, 15.9 days at 10 years and 22.3 days at percent of the employees covered by the survey.' 25 years of service; these averages were virtually un- Eighteen percent of the professional-administrative em- changed since 1980-the first year such estimates were ployees, 24 percent of the technical-clerical employees, developed. Plans covering professional-administrative and 8 percent of the production workers had shorter employees generally provided more vacation days than workweeks Three percent of the work force was sched- those for other employees. Sixty-one percent of the uled to work other than a 5-day week. professional-administrative employees, for example, became eligible for at least 15 days of vacation at 5 years Paid luich and rest periods (tables S and 4) of service; this compared with 37 percent of the pro- Ten percent of the employees received formal paid duction employees. Nearly all white-collar employees lunch periods, and 72 percent were provided formal received their regular salaries or earnings during vaca- rest tine, such as coffee breaks and clean-up time. Both tion periods About seven-eighths of the production benefits were more common among production em- employees received such vacation pay; 13 percent were ployees than among the two other occupational groups. provided vacation payments based on a percentage of Production employees who were covered by paid annual earnings; and I percent received lump-sum pay- lunch plans usually received 20 or 30 minutes a day, ments from vacation funds- averaging 25 minutes. The 3 percent of white-collar Virtually all employees covered by vacation plans workers eligible averaged 39 minutes of paid lunch time had to work for a specified period before being able to each day. Paid rest time, averaging 26 minutes a day take a vacation. The most prevalent length-of-service for white-collar employees and 25 minutes per day for requirement was 6 months for white-collar employees production employees, was provided most commonly and I year for production employees as two daily breaks of 10 or 15 minutes each. Sixteen percent of the plan participants were allowed to cash in unused vacation time. This option was of- Paid holdays (tables s-7) fered to 10 percent of the white-collar participants and Virtually all full-tine employees in each occupational 23 percent of the production participants group were provided paid holidays, averaging 10.1 days Anniversary-year bonus vacation days, such as an ex- per year. Extended holiday plans, such. as the tra week of vacation at 10 and 20 years of service, were in the auto Christmas-New Years Day period provided included in the count of regular vacation tine. Extended holidays," industry, floating holidays, and "personal vacation plans, providing 10 to 13 weeks off with pay such as employee birthdays, were inclded in the holi- every 5 years or so in addition to regular vacation, were day plans reported. excluded. These plans are part of collective bargaining When a holiday fell on a scheduled day off, such as agreements negotiated in the aluminum and can a Saturday or Sunday. another day off was regularly industries- granted to 85 percent of the employees. Most of the remaining workers received either another day off or Personsa lem (table 10) Formal personal leave, which allows employees to hsaud resVaiy hadla . sad pid 'Wdk sehedalm of reasons l-kaad . peo-a hesbaOs e Add fta the 1910- be absent from work with pay for a variety 1914 reys not covered by other specific leave plans, was provided 68

to one-fourth of the employees. Slightly over one-third in of the white-collar plans where the number of days off employees received personal leave, varied by rela- nearly twice tionship to the deceased were the proportion of production employees included in the count of with this benefit. workers with a set number of days; Most commonly, employees provided the maximum num- personal leave ber of days off was reported were eligible for I to 5 days, averaging for each plan with this 3.7 days per year. provision. Nearly one-fifth of the In cases where personal leave was employees were in part of an "annual these plans. leave" plan (combined vacation and personal Nine-tenths of the workers leave) and could not be shown separately, were eligible for paid it leave while serving as was reported as vacation time. The survey a juror. Paid time off for jury did not cover duty was usually the extent of informal personal leave. provided as needed, commonly making up the difference between the employee's regular Funeral pay and the leave, jury duty leave, and military leave court's jury allowance. (tables Military leave, 11-13) providing pay for absence from work At least 87 to fulfill military training percent of the employees in each occu- or duty commitments, was pational group available to seven-tenths were eligible for paid leave to attend of the employees. The most funerals of family common provision members. Pour-fifths of the employ- was 2 weeks off per year. However, ees received a set one-fifth of the workers number of days per occurrence, av- could receive military leave as eraging 3.2 days. (Three needed or according to days off were available to a the type of military duty. For majority of workers workers with a specified in each occupational group.) For number of days off, military 10 percent of leave averaged 11.5 work days per the white-colar workers and 3 percent year. Pay for mili- of the blue-collar tary leave was either regular pay or workers, the number of days off de- the difference be- pended upon tween regular pay and military the employee's length of service. Workers pay. 69

Tab 2. Work - PeceFoam 04l-4u55. = by Tabl e. Paid red 9 Pcn of hdl4km Se by of' hw bchod tpowe9 dmemium g ireit af p94dred Omd per day, mnan large fi2ns, 29M9, _U__

eRd d2.i Tedi. 8.d..PIOI.- d. d kd 8.d Mh.89 P. day adftm_ 91Td Pkw - _

Tobl . -~~ 100 103 103 100 Td__ ...... 100 10 100 100

H-l p .W- P20 paid -I4 72 58 70 9 385 81 I M f) 2 LW 15 n*. _ 2 1 1 2 39 . .... ______3 4 e Is *.. _ _- 4 3 0 35 old d. 37.5 5 3 1 1 2 0_15 4rd . 20n40._ (-) V) C) 37.5 ___ _ 7 9 22 3 20 *.A. _...... 25 17 18 33 0-1 37.5 Wd . 40____ 2 3 4 M) 00*23 2.9.30 n9e. ... 4 2 2 6 40 __ __ 83 79 75 ea 30 *ft.. 34 35 44 29 0_ 40 _ -__ 3 2 1 4 0 33md l.40 n*9s._. C) _ C) C) 408.9 . _ I C) C H4 p. -0 M ._ _ C C4 0_ 403.,. . 2 _ _ 5 1 M1n*4 K44 0

C .l paid .1 I RqW8rly dd .4o *. 8 . d1 bo. ft 1980.1984&..Y. 698.1249 p9182.91 199__ ...... 28 42 30 19 Len 0.5 pce

OE: _ft d a.Wft - d hmu ft- " " Ic. MVUP- Wm. NOTE B9 d -. kg . - d hO&A0991. WaM2K 9tW. Dah r40.2.- -9 h. ccoft y

Table 2 P81d Il I . Percent_ od filb-Ur empoye T* & Paid h1 md vcaceions: Average mnbe of by 91-2.08of paid kmh U91. Per dey, me mi We dayesfr flnr^ IM5 le ful-49ne erI m midsord WV fms,

_1* T4 W PA._ 912.2. T~d.4-p1,9 All p.. W14T- lperdss ploZr211v c-le IbWi.d*-d l lon - -, -VI P- -9 P p 0._Pa, _ T9 __ 100 100 100 100 Pd h .__ _ .1 10.2 9.8 10.1 d pid _d 10 3 3 17 PMid r. by b9thd _ 9.20023 ...._ _ _ . I 1 I A e 0 _ 58. 0.1 5,7 .2 20 *.A. _ _ 4 C 7 Al I y 8.__e7 10.1 98 7 0- 20Dd MWd30nml. nC - C Al 3 . 10.40_1 11.0 10.5 1.1 30 .ft._____ 4 1 2 7 At 5 y. 2Z7 13.6 13. 12.1 0. 30 *..An9__...... 1 2 2 1 At 10 _n_...... _ __.2. 21 o I....55 Al 15fi_.__- .. ______.___------... 19. I&9 i.2 .d ___ . - - Al 20 y-4__-- 20.7 21.1 2D.7 20.e At 25# . 22.3 22.7 228 zz0 NC 49 pdd k48_.. - 90 97 97 83 At 30_zts22. 23.3 23.1 225

LassMen 0.o p.t Pd2 o N198S.n.18 -Wkhg -I dam W 9 0 2 -nft . .1921 59Wof S.O~ _ 940..d In -0219991 92t -9 NOTF B of -. r _fr d h92m.11a _Ma 24_. h . llgO 9 Wt.Dh _ . ,1ft hbp aif c.M T h4 n-n24 W-)* 4 Wdwy ft - Icr lon d

NOTE Coop29S. Of _..W 9 hall MP9 .W 4 .8 . WM92- h92.9 . .. day1 70

Td l Pd i Pwas nid _oflkm Ul. by T T. Pd00 1u - Pam of _b* -_ %by I Vd pidd I pO d amb_h. modm _Id polcy 0 11_0 SI hS mions*gd' 1 ai d q, odI Im Olld0.. fi5 O

d Ttdo. FdW Tdrl. pHd. Ao.. 81. polop 51160S d d ft..P. _ PT f0 Q TakeS ~ M 1 00 100 100 TdlO|IC 100 100IO 100 Mod=pNM1100ne Ins PMA paid' M . _ _ - 9 g 100 go UI4.5 d W I ) e 2 5 d _ ___I_ ____ 2 1 2 I qnWdayON ~ es el so TO a da" _ 4 4 7 3 e dp pka I a 2 h.N ft_s t edq___ _ - 1 2 4 7 d 5 5 7 ~3 A,,W. dayoff dWq pq _ In-- ~dftq a 4 5 Is 7 de p.. I 2lm l ldrp ______I1 12 le 9 9 dp p- I ~ 10W dap -___ 1 2 2 C) Aoh*-day ff. ha t M 10 d" 23 25 23 22 10 dap pk.1 0 2 hN d . I 1 I I II dM _. I 1 14 le 12dp .1-_--- -.--- 0 12 10 9 1ft pokyntdW. b/qW- 12 dwp1p I ¶W dwp - C C) C) C) 13 d . 6 7 5 7 13 dW pi.I . - NO NOTE. _ d -WU d hil& it -q ndrq In d7. ------.-...... ) C) C) C tft 14 dp _____..... 5 4 3 7 15 d_...... __ .. 1 1 ) 2 M e_.0mhI. (( C) ') C) C() N.W6. d dnp C) (') _ - NotF I pTIdl ... .. 2 1 4

Lm VW DS p.-

NOTE _d1U. ofl .u 0-1 ofOMny nd M qflm 0t. Dlh hd0061-.-o _pt- h Mt cy. 71

Tb Pap om of fos41 IIyI by mcmi of pb p r Id at udeoled p9da4 01o .,m~nMd~wb 01 mum Ns

dIW~ -dw- ~ - -

-MV - 1000 ______100 100 100 100 15_ ofd_ ip h C PM9p0lf_' _ 6 6 10dp . I n4 Al O.W of 14 .. 3 997 AtC5 n d_.I 99 0_10 W 15db - 6 nO lo4 31 5 ft* _ 45 47 2,8 0_ 1 &W d. 20 _p - 0_ 5 ads vdt 10 d4 _ 20 d4 _ #I4 10 d.. 1 0O. 20 *yd . dW I55 2 2 - 10 tO n . 5 _w 61 2 15 2 10 , _ 72 2 0_ 15 dq 205.....25 p __ - . ...._ 3 135 00 3727 11 .1) 6 6 6 5h 5dd0 10 d0.. 6 M4 20 105 . .4.15.. ._ 0O- 5 4d0 10 dys I n5 614 *13 10 d . . 4 15204 _ C- *0IS Id. 15 d40_ 12 57 62 49 1odqS4 C,3 0_ 20 Wl. 25#d0p = 2 #5 dp -4 21 24 12 6 - 25 *r .W So d" _ Co.,Dd2 .4.. _ -_ 2 5 d55 6 15 6 I2 0- 5 W -. 10 drp ,3 6 n 6 10 de1 77 707 r6 7 *25V~co 1Y 33 CO 10W 0d. 15 dq - 5 dps .. _ _ 1541_ 12 10 ... 45 n4 Co. 15.1 WId. 20d wp O0r 10 W dwub 15 dp 68 20 dip20 *2 15de ..-- 6 0 dw 2040 15 m 20 d0y_ 35 30 2 020 240. 332 M30 0_20 u . 61 5 ofs . 1 6 6 IS 0y.8 4 23 45 0C 5 W sM 0 40 25 2 10 dip 6 731 38 10 db 4 S 0_.1025 db___._____ -. 00.. 1_0.. 15 dil 20401...._. _. 2 74 202537 34 0 15 .014.20 sdq_- 6 204d0 40 3 6 0_ 20 dms M n4 I N 10 of___- e32 0. 15 d dw 20 dp- IS 150-1040y5...... dop __ 3 20 d40 __._ 20 61 Co. 20 Md. 25 d._._ M2 35 0_ d.d15 r 205 _ 72 25 dp ______40 44 10 0_15.0 25.ndudr30 _ 2 2032 20 dp 17 27 19 03040w __ 0_ 20 dw 2 I2 t2 _ 30 p0 . 2 2 3 ., , l. _ I I EoIi SOWn*0gn-P'd o". ho0.0h M.y y- 14.10415 0 PMoo. - oS5Iy ft0 dw Iy m 14So m O.M hI, VW - d0I k,412014, V. d.Mb.40o. by NOTF. DO% k.Wft404 Y M b0.. dMA .1 -*t M.40 OFo.,A 0014d -5~ D.. W.&m. T... 41040 L_.. 00.15_ Oea0.M _

S 72

Ta 9. Paid v.1.5n.1 Pen of fuhne P l_ by TOW 10. Peld pII I Pecoet hfu4bme length of menlo. qaed to MA vacalw%me.mld NW plye by _ ON of paid ea S day Mwbrn"N IM PC-, Per vow. mpdrbaYd 1 11n

IaW. d Wd L ol 1 -_ uee P di~ d. W.lP1 .8 p.- . l _ 4eAnd edl

Tol 0._--- 10D om n0 100tCO10 _1 - C) TOWs .____IOD...._. 0.. 100 *00 100 WMh-- _k.__ D 7 96 97 go I " . . 7 __.__._...... 94 1 4.kdp-.W .S- . 28 33 37 t8 2 W " _.______._ 3 31 2 2 2 2 3 1 3 n.f __ __ 11 1 2 10 2 d s ...... _ ...... _._._ 8 7 12 3 3 dMw______4 5 4 3 6_._.__.__.__,_ n 35 44 45 2 4 OP...... 4 5 4 3 7.s n.__...... __.__.I 1 2 1 5de_ ...... 4 6: 3 1 Y- , _. 28.. 26__.._ 50 .... _.38 MM" ___ 2 3 3 I No nln _ . . 3 6 4 1 V. by lMe ofNM.. 2 1 2 2 Wl 3 ... 4 ..3 .....2 Not dd l ea - 74 67 28 52

' WaM -s .pW d -1 h 1_ie Wa - OW .led '0.5 PW NOTE Be. 01 -. a., 01ohfkod 8m nol 1".Q.4 NM E S o R d W.Wb.fn MM mwMo ap t Olghh no w_ hft M.W

Table 11. Paid hunedl Isom. P lcenof hi-le. emoyees by nuwber of paid fhmelaWe days ova~able per omwence, medum 9nd large ft9, 1985

_ - TnoW _

70141_.8280 128 128 128 Pn-bde pad h.I . 88 87 a8 07 1 day.. 1 1 1 1 2 dp ...... 3 2 2 3 3 d. ... 63 55 Ss 70 4 dr07_ _ ...... 3 4 4 3 5dM ...... 9 13 14 5 Mnn.10d 5dp...... as- C) C) C C) Vadsr bybngof -V . .. d 11 9 3 NLWnbOf dep Wndaval. .... 1 ) I Noltprld pad h."n ...... _ 12 13 t1 13 o.0 l da n by d tdpaoaa.a .... . is18 19 21 16

*1lSa.,, olls pem Th.i nn nn .1 dW pWm .r n mnY a h. leofd h1Ol ibulon 01hni le. day.

NOTE Ben.1 1ounq a,.m0.1 d hid fnt y nd1 quW 73

Tdl9 1. Paid Jsy duty We Pam 01 fhgIm enl4sye by mtr 0l paid )WY duty Mm dap

1995 pe1~ ocwrno mAll send rtwTirg 1005 ._ _ _ _ 0 10 wteal "I"4 ,00

00- I ~d~d pad W ty W ____. 92 94 aD so 10 dp __2 1 ... 2 ..2 _ _... 20 d _.------1 2 1 1 IOdy...______...... ______.__...... 2 22 30 d.0 Jy______1.p-idda -d 3I 32 2 IlNtuo 1ls.___.d...... __. 9 88 092

NOTE.8(po04dp -. _- .d 0lIl 4 11W

. 40 p P1I. dmP al_0__.8

N4lE: BKa. 4 d00las l 04Ikda4&1-1 h Qmfly00swl

Tabi 13a Paid wo Weaom: Porcoen of hlg4l9 ipyee by _m be of paid mnty a dasP h per yew, ma nd W"p fem 1N5

tt'aI T~dml. 1 d dW ~pbybb4iv Tw P

Td41 .__ ...... _ _. m.. ____._0 100 100 P-id4.d4 .et .4. . 70 77 75 02 11-1l ___W4 ...... _..__ 70 n. 7 4 5 10d"4 __.. ...39 ___.._4425 3643 154._____..__ ...... __._.__...... 4 4 1 1O1-14dw.4._.4...... ______.... 2 2 2 23 15dpq4 _ * 4_ I 3...... I oWt d.", ---____------__ ___2. 2 2 2 Olh ._____ 18 20 Is la N-6 d dp nIl _k ___ I I I I NW lifd pid nAyt. _.. ____ 30 23 25 37 Lma . 0.5 .c ' MWAy14 -a.. by ".e 04 M b oaddd -6 d. N07E B e Ofd .d hilte baay 00 a aW

10 74

Chapter 3. Disability Benefits

Through paid sick leave or sickness and accident in- benefits were more prevalent among blue-collar surance, workers may be protected against loss of in- workers. come during temporary absences from work due to illness or accident. During extended periods of disability, Paid sick leave (tables 14-19) workers' income may be continued through long-term Seventy-two percent of the employees covered by disability insurance or disability pensions. In 1985, paid sick leave plans were allowed a specified number short-term disability protection was available to 93 per- of days per year (annual sick leave plans). Another 21 cent of all employees in the survey through sick leave, percent of the participants were provided sick leave sickness and accident insurance, or both. Sick leave benefits for each illness (per-disability plans), while most usually provides 100 percent of the worker's normal of the remainder were covered by both annual and per- earnings; sickness and accident insurance usually re- disability benefits. The number of days of sick leave places 50 to 67 percent of pay. Long-term disability in- granted varied widely by the type of sick leave plan as surance (LTD), which typically pays 50 or 60 percent well as by specific provisions of each plan. Within in- of earnings, was available to 48 percent of the employ- dividual plans, the maximum number of days granted ees; 41 percent (some with LTD insurance) were eligi- is either uniform for all covered employees or increases ble for immediate disability benefits under their pension with seniority. plans, with payments usually determined by credited Because annual sick leave plans do not renew bene- service without regard to sge. fits after each illness, two-fifths of the employees cov- For 25 percent of the workers, employers provided ered were allowed to carry over and accumulate un- short-term disability coverage by coordinating sick used sick leave from year to year (cumulative plan). leave benefits with sickness and accident insurance. This Such plans typically granted fewer days per year than is done by either starting insurance benefits after sick plans in which unused days were not accumulated. For leave pay has ended, or paying both benefits concur- example, at 20 years' service, cumulative annual plans rently. When payments are made from both sources, averaged 15.8 days at full pay, while noncumulative sick leave pay is reduced by the amount of the insur- plans averaged 56.0 days. Three-tenths of the workers ance benefits so that the total benefit does not exceed with carryover provisions were allowed to accumulate full salary. Regardless of the method of coordination, an unlimnited amount of sick leave; two-thirds had limits employers offering sickness and accident insurance tend on the amount of sick leave that could be accumulated, to allow fewer sick leave days than those without such ranging from under 10 days to over 130 days; and the insurance. At 5 years of service, for example, annual remainder had carryover provisions that varied by sick leave plans coordinated with insurance made avail- length of service. able an average of 15.6 days at full pay-only half of Per-disability sick leave plans generally provided the days provided by plans without insurance. This gap more days of paid leave for an illness than annual plans. widened as years of service increased.' The average number of days at full pay was 59.9 at I Long-term disability insurance payments usually be- year of service, 78.9 at 5 years of service, 105.3 at 15 gin after sick leave and sickness and accident insurance years of service, and 129.6 at 25 years of service. Un- are exhausted and continue as long as the person is dis- der annual plans, the average number of days available abled or until retirement age. Career-ending disabilities was 15.9 days at I year, 25.1 days at 5 years, 37.0 days may entitle an employee to an immediate pension, or at 15 years, and 40.6 days at 25 years. the pension may be deferred until other forms of in- Slightly over one-fifth of sick leave participants, usu- come, such as LTD insurance, have ceased. ally under per-disability plans, had partial pay benefits Paid sick leave and LTD insurance were most often available after ful-pay benefits ended. Another 2 per- provided to white-collar workers, while sickness and cent of the participants had only partial-pay benefits accident insurance and immediate disability pension available. Sick leave plans commonly had a short service re- 'For Nnhter astYr ofNhon-trsi diuaty prosofios, me willi quirement, generally 3 months, before new employees J. Wi-uowski, "Emptoyee H e Protor6 Agsinat Shonr-teo became eligible for benefits. Seven-eighths of the par- Disnblit," M*ohby L-boo Reol. Fe-iry 1985, pp. 32-38. ticipants were in plans providing benefits on the first

1l 75

day of illness to employees with I year of service. The are covered by mandatory temporary disability insur- remainder typically had to wait I to S workdays, with ance plans that are at least partisally employer financed. the waiting period often decreasing to zero days after Both of these State plans pay benefits based on a per- 10 years or more of service. centage of the worker's earnings for up to 26 weeks with a limit on the weekly benefit ($145 in New York Slckness and accident Insurance (tablea 14, and $158in New Jersey during the 1985 survey period).' 20-22) Half of all employees were protected by sickness and Long-temn dslablllty Insurance (tables 23-25) accident insurance plans against absences from work Long-term disability insurance continues the income due to short-term disabilities. More than four-fifths of of employees during extended periods of disability. Gen- the participants had their benefits fully paid by their erally, LTD begins after sick leave and sickness and employer. The one-fifth who were required to contrib- accident insurance are exhausted and continues as long ute toward the cost of coverage most often paid a fixed as the employee remains disabled, or until retirement amount, usually between S2 and S3 a month. Most of age. If disabled after age 60, however, LTD benefits the others paid a percent of monthly earnings, or had usually continue for 5 years or to age 70, whichever is the cost included in the premium for an insurance earlier. package. Forty-eight percent of the employees covered by the Benefit payments under sickness and accident insur- study had LTD insurance; one-fifth of the participants ance plans were either a percent of employee earnings were required to contribute toward the cost of the plans. or a scheduled dollar amount. The percent of earnings The amount of LTD insurance usually varied by earn- was usually fixed-typically between 50 and 67 per- ings, as did the coat to the employee. When a flat rate cent-although percents varying by service and length was charged, employees usually paid under 0.5 percent of disability were also observed. Plans paying a percent of their earnings. In plans charging a monthly amount of earnings covered 77 percent of the white-collar par- per SIOD0of covered earnings, the rate was always less ticipants, compared with 35 percent of the blue-collar than 80 cents. participants. These earnings-based plans often had a Service requirements found in LTD plans were usu- dollar limit on the amount of the weekly benefit avail- ally more restrictive than for the other insurance bene- able; such limits have risen steadily since they were first fits. Nearly one-fourth of the participants had service recorded in 1981. For example, 33 percent of the par- requirements of from I year to 3 years or more. Be- ticipants had maximum weekly benefits of $140or more cause of the long-term nature of this benefit, more em- in 1981; by 1985, this proportion had increased to 57 ployers restricted eligibility to employees who had dem- percent. Blue-collar workers were the most common onstrated some attachment to the company. recipients of scheduled dollar benefits, which provided The degree of participation varied widely among the either a fixed weekly amount (ranging from under $60 employee groups, with white-collar workers twice as to over 5220), or varying weekly benefits (usually based likely to have LTD insurance as blue-colar workers. on earnings). However, many employees not covered under LTD The maximum weeks of coverage for each disability insurance are eligible for an immediate disability pen- were fixed for all but 7 percent of participants, for sion through their retirement plan, two-fifths of the em- whom duration of coverage varied by length of serv- ployees (54 percent of the production workers) were ice. Of those participants with benefits lasting for a fixed covered by immediate disability retirement provisions. period, most had 26 weeks of coverage. Other common Long-term disability benefits were usually 50 or 60 periods were 13 and 52 weeks. percent of monthly pay. Most of the plans that pay a Four-fifths of the employees with sickness and acci- percent of predisability earnings had maximum payment dent insurance were required to be on the job for a limitations-commonly $1,500 to S5,000 a month. specified minimum time period before they were cov- One-fourth of the participants were in plans that pro- ered by the plan. Service requirements were usually 1, vided a benefit which was not a fixed percent of earn- 2, or 3 months. One percent of the participants were in Lngs. These formulas differed sharply by employee plans requiring over 1 year of service before coverage. group. Just over one-quarter of the blue-collar partici- Sickness and accident insurance, unlike sick leave, pants were in plans paying a dollar amount that varied usually requires a waiting period before benefits begin. by the level of the worker's earnings. In contrast, one- The most common provision requires an employee to be out of work due to illness or injury some short pe- 'BBoth,St peait an nnployer ti btbfiwitea privn pan Iorathe riod, usually 3 to 7 days, before payments begin. Wait- Ste pa. if th bsettta provided are u esi eqtvtt. In New Yoart. -y -tpltoye ing periods may be shortened or eliminated entirely for aWe to pay die -nploye-'. tre rf pln nest. CtirQntiO and Rhad tad .n hhave nadatd tenpnnary employees involved in an accident or hospitalized. dintny imran pln, hat that pla eqnuirean Eplnyee nan- Workers in two States, New Jersey and New York, trfthn and thua, ant tleudd n ts rue eY.

12 76

sixth of the white-collar partcipants were in plans with combination of both. other benefit formulas-a variable percentage of earn- Survivor benefits after the death of the disabled em- xgs,a fat dollr amount, or a percent of earnings that ployee were available in plans covering 14 percent of varied by length of disability. the LTD participant A lump-sum payment, usually A ceiling on income during disability was a common equal to 3 times the monthly LTD benefit, was the most Imitation to LTD payments, regardless of the type of common survivor benefit provided. plan These ceilings affectd benefits only if the amount Three-tenths of the participants were in LTD plans payable from the LID plan plus income from other with special limitations on benefits for mental illness sources, such u rehabilitative employment and family In moet of these cases, benefits were provided for a Social Security payments, exceeded a specified percent- limited period (usually 24 months), unless the partici- age of predishbility earnings (frequently 70 to 75 per- pant was institutionalized. In a few cases, benefits were cent). Nearly seven-tenths of the LTD participants were provided only if the participant was institutionalized, limited by these income ceilings, by the dollar maxi- or benefits were provided for a limited period, regard- mums in plans that pay a percent of ermings, or by a less of institutionalization.

13 77

T 14. Ul4Wm GOV"y PUG"l otf fs*-ft __ by pm_ hi ickn_ Wmd8 hammumpMM mmid- sck hmm pums U.ck .18 bg

b~~~~~~~t~P" I'ld_ Ted4 ft61Pd~ .Wft

m8* -

TJM _ _ _ IW tX 100 100 Wlhfl1.adMW yaM v 03 s 07 00 _as -~ d _m6km *W/ - - I 2 4 4G

PW d IMm a* --- 42 s so 21 Cm sd d60106 kO-WWmfs/6d 1M _ 20 27 02 21

._* 70 4 10

NOTE: codr U S o_ hWtid 14 d Mny.

Tad 1& P31dlic' h P as t of fd4m. aoy- by _nopom ffoVd 1wwwfr,

Plen ldAda llmIm., on

TOd . . _ __ . 10 100 100 PI d k 1 ___ 93 102 41 826kbMa p0688 AnC_ aF bm* _ 14 23 IS 7 o~nd1 w pw _'' _b 2 4 6 1

NM pdd km M 32 6 n P4pai.60bs. 33 7 6 50

' P 00 1100610 am aybunylea d _f.m

POT0. Sec... of mha*p momof 6008.d ham amy au my hb

FIOTE.: _m of mwf d h>kd fto 1

14 78

T"l. IL Pdid aft be_ Pcas of b tgm _loy- by si b6m_ p V4 I ,. m =_d bq. rm 1on

ad_ T.4 fl4o T- Plo,- Pad. Ow hs. V- A Sd4Ct _-t *ddWt 4 d,_mSW45tPead,d loe_ , OwdweSO g* * - AN ad Wtdmtb - I. - aa lo - -

TOd 100 180 t80 Sic Wea =j!4. a a pa 17 21 80 I7 180 Al I WiWd _W t10dB d_ SI 74 n4 1 IS 10 NO W. 30 q; I- 13 AlOwlins *8,65- al SW l Wdad. 80 dby - IBkd.. 04.15...-- 11 17 10 e0 N d- 120 d. - I *20 NO W 180 d4ys I II 0I IC 180 d4.1 ar - 10 Od d. Al d"S - 21 t7 6 I OD Id ad.. 1A0dip 21 6 AlI vW of -.A 12D qip vm - 1 6 I6 Bs md t dwW"I0 *0q4 dS n2 3I N I I- IN ,- M IB~.. B dS 3 J0 ad WOW AOd.. B B el ad.. 104.1.... 11 14 8l0 and WWa180 dip 37 10 Nd .d.. Al 4.1 224 AOAl I-a Nd d la,.- ODd.y 3 A1II 161 150dmp cw - 2 20 ODNi Ido. 12Dd1. I3 Al 5 ,_4 of _r 5Al ys am-A- NBIU 10 edp - A0 d ad. 30 d4i 4 ,2 2 60 MM d_ 10 da B 51 WKi. 10 dpI A2 9 10 NW lade Al dI A2 120 d atdu 180da. 4 II 4 12 12 l80dpa.a - eoAl NWedw .80412D.. u~ seo q4 *1 6 Alsdepo,w 804) - S 2 2 42 Ali~od184qs *50 10 cr n 2 NAl1S oalo 10 30 dip.d, 2 L~ds 041--d I2 30 'd WXW So qi 610 B5oad Wd 10 d6YS- 0IC IS9 16 So and aWr 120 qo- 15 l1adap a 4 - 19 120 an adW 180 di5 27 1804.15 a Sm - Al 5o,a. Al415 2 Ii 14 Is9 10 5 I2 NIB.U 10 l 2 1U04.5 dmi- 10 d dS Al * I2 2 3le ad. 80 dip B ad -d. 10 Ay_ .1118 .IC 19 IS loadv*0 d ad.ad. gol4..l _A 24 80 otvdO 120dip S 16 I2DSOMM180 4.-ssamq SOdw- : SDNO d.d OD .y5 II 2 eo vdNWd 124D _ 6 2 I6 10 2 AN20 I-Si dW_ 7 OD ~d ._1Dd U.,. 10 dq - NAl I-Sd-of 5S 10dW W0a d.l S9 Al aSd lad.. ODd.rp A d a. 10 dy 16 so,l tade. so qd.4. 4e 80 ad ad q0 _ . 1324 12 2 10 Igo ftI a m - 2 802 2 S I 12Dd .am - 14 9 8 Uld. 10 4. - 10 5,Kud. 30 dw NAl2 I-So sd .ri 2 2 Md. B5 I I 2 Al50WtWd ud.l r 120Ia q4t4.y BI Bu Wad.. IC 4..... 1T 10 I 24 ISO B l0 d ad Al0. 17 120 Wd ,KW 180d4. 8 is5 Al Vd d.. 80 q 4 el IS 180Sd ad 1804 . 1D a d.V 1204 _. 4 81 43 81 I2 p q. - -_ S 17 AsSaeedd b=- Od- bpW 14o I pold d6, I_

5B raps W a W- d p. W py. hI.. d. a _ Tt .rd ,W 'lb, by olmd - b F_ha- I SsS el- ' P. Py Ios W a*4 a -a ad M- b01l d. osV- d .Ao3. - Vad~d 0186 * Pl.Aw"a a *%.t pumft oMa laM- I-d of * ad , d .. k_ , ad Id a_. d N -_l qxcg.01*.. IN_d l-d5 So, seadlE ,- H.0a.*.g G. dbeuda by W.lh d.eA a diy. lid. 1501 WMy 3Y 01 -bL ' Th. W6_ OWm th- Owl sa d as 14.44.1 b. B Pa. O- swot. ; d maa 15. ofd q. - I. L ahd -. W d p 4d.8y 16. * kh bndr. pbs .51 pIl Is Od d ft. a W$dr ' Fll1.e_ n q1 dB dnd od0 dW 1.P1 1 Iod. dp pa I- Bea dWd_.q -.5. IN dfpS dm516

I5 79

Table 17. Pid dab legygo Averageraaabar of dy atPf.

paym ~rpwlc~iti~ ole by t pe i p ~ me ~ mi

- I 2 Plld _"'8a ~*b l- Oelhd _op A .5 32.6 Ta sA 1~~ond Al Y* 3Al 23. 15.

a 37.0 25 314 3.02 I YE 3~~~~~9.4MA1 38.0 12. a 20 YE- 33zo 5J2 0228 a 32530 y _ _ 40.8 W587 39.7 24.8 At yw._ 41.1 57.3 402 24.9

PMleema _ hea Al1 d YN b At ra _ _ 54.1 8&4 382 472 Al ... ___ 59.9 71.1 43.3 59.4 93 75.0 48.2 59.4 AAlt M8 8'8. 887 7l5 y_ -- 913 1223 AlY15 81.0 83.4 _. _ 105.3 112.2 955 1053 Alal25 _4 . 117. 120.7 107.8 12S0 y25 . 129.8 17 .e J 119 14.4 ...... _ _3~.. 139.7 139.8 1189S 148.4

*l Ipd lld bof drMy. p. yes. TN. '1 Th ag (11_-l) wee *Snl Ihl eel all 10 y-4 d9e

Wl~eea.,pdfi -et. of ler fat. We -Mi 4 Cl y. Th 9s my My by 1M8 d _.o1 a.

W >tars.90 0.4y 1 payM..'Spidap

16 80

TO I& Paid m dk Mom' AVMV _u. of de" t fd pay foo SldthM p bY anlkb6 Palcy tWdddtlba mtoded __eeoot Md2 Nod . Omt 1

P.0 sbw Tabs.T .01 lb.* 7.010 m 1,_ 1. eel tp6¶W Al pm- O d _ 6514 W1 w.6w. pwl - paW pwb pal P

Al Ipm 0dwe -______Om0. Ill 61 7.7 Al10 yS of ngwc-4wbdr. 0ft _66 0 _ew llJ 771 NeWa d 452 612 434 272 buslo -.. 7.4 0. 0. 01 0.51 dd alA ~C _ we __51450 easJ 27.3 42. 312 12A4 .ddke bi - 112 10.7 1018 10.0 WOh.5 eke01 N _LdbftP =M- 261 261 1&31 1 .4_ ke -- MI1 7. 00.0 47.0

_ara,06-_____ 12. 2.4 120 UO Al 2Dt ofd_1- Y.WeA 0126,6.6501-mj~b. p6. 151 16W 172 112 modWt kew~ - 26.7 33. 161 22.3 ws. dss- 301.64400 8.6,5W______~ 131 16 172 715 Al 5 y- d01re w 4, ad OQw40.. pho ~ 12.2 1 1310 61 .kW k-, 10.1 21.I 171 161 _M w46_ ___ 0 * N0 .00_ -4 s 2M. 742 00.4 341 he,....._ ____ 0.7 13. 12.1 02 WNhU e0 1 _ 7o4J WW.A. 010166 .0 hmxe .... _____ 36.7 04. 41.1 1531

N.vA."- p - 3412 472 31.5 201 eo44d whe - 71A 64 317 00.

_- ___ 1" 331 207 .7 At 25 y_ of _- W Wd NW0 Qs_-Ao_ p% --a 110 101 17.2 11 _.4 _e - 44.5 547 378 300 Wuh _*e w swu h*o.d_ __ 123 I".5 172 71e Al 10 ye 01 -bm 0.1160de Id 1 WE. awdftt _. Nwb,e*b. p , 06.0 70.7 57.74 30.5 m _c _ IlLs 1S 10.5 72 wkm 301td 6 5

o00 hw~ =-. 17.0 2010 104 14.3 0.00064bme es1 modw keee --. 714 60.6 60.3 61.0

' PM idWk ||-pi. M a Wn_ -d-o dro _O -h 3_. Pw _ Y pba - .ddn - t6 " beisa_ m duY i PaSopt pid 16dMhto wl1k. . q lWWp (I) * .4m d be .iw WM po I _ d -s Wma do Do P pwr y poI we psad h 17. >eed *0. sbcma .01 _. _e. plan-.01 ~3o4 0 . hd I . o. 6 .mIdem no , _. i eo o0 NOTE Cpd.e 01 NOSe 6Wcl- dp PM paWF py d -.0 ed hale b . - V- 5 f6. rWE p . ha Id t. 000w eb.vf .0* o~PpM0 p~y do" a mep 26.10 haM

17 81

Tabb 19. PMd m09 okk Isv Pm1Icus0 Poe m hof49u by w~ind SIMkhae POlcYWO Cm MN

-mem m~~~dWrg. .-..- 1965P.

C~~~~~o ~~~Pwt- "1 - mI09U . P 't kWib nd A9po . nd d

T -_ ------___.___ ------100 100 100 100 Clnf- 0* oni35 32 39 Caw,.h * d_ 34 s. ..3 _ 6 __9 20 .wr ch ______a*O 3 UM.nb..9_____ 5 10 49 62 50 31 Daft m ,sdl i. I I C

TaS - _-- 100 IOD 100 IOD d'A~ftdW..Xd~m - 30 33 31 23

4---.00sMd ___ _ 67 e1 67 71 Lkw51I0_!!! 10 d6- 5 2 4 9 3 2 2 4 55 abd1 p ______4 1 5 2 3120 46 .. 12 12 I 25, 190d.A. ______- 1 2 3 26 - 49 dp 10 7 19 14

51 -04 dap 41 3 3 65 d". a 9 2 90 ..... ~~5 2 l 1..._4 0 130 ~~~~9 9 10 4 1 ~~~~5 4 9 61 Dan ~~~~I 2 1 C oD . _...... _.1 2 4 I

*I.. 0-. 0.9 p-.st ' C.yo. pW .- by Im .1_.n NOTE dB 6.. 94 rof K I6 4 k4dSoda n . 67 M- t"I

IH 82

TOM U Uius. mm 1 PUOui of 6.8*M I -.- by I" mWd&,16m a pay w 111 mmi 1 *M11s.t , I- -8

_~~~~,V- *f of,, lWww Tb of 1 TOM - 1 ||2| , IT is rir I It6-IEm .

AMpoUtmr "Atp 120 2 11 6 57 2 15 ?7 )

FP-d pm Of16w 44 1 4 4 32 1 1 3S C I_4 C5l5C _ _ - 0 _ _ _ C C 50....______16 C) 1 2 12 _ C - ) C

ay 0 7

57 I 1 _ 7 C -I - _ - 70 ______2 _) 1 1I _ _ _ ) _ n7. 1 C) (C) C) C) - C) C5) 50 1 _ _ 2 Ub~______() 7) 1 14 C) 2) - 62 C) - - -~ ~~~~~~C) - P d 1*U U3 _ 60 C) 2 O 2 _ 1 _ 1s 2 _ C) 21 _ 1 _ _

Bb.8 _7 * wd 1 d ______1 _ _ C) I _ _ _ 1 _ dwI9 27 7 14I 1 _ 12 1.tm", in 5 C) 2 C) S C) _ _ _ _ 38479 5 _- 2 C) 1 C) C) _ C _ 612241I9 4 1 I I 2 _ C) _ _ 2 61241 S C) * C) 2 C) C) _ _ $14641______S _ 0) _ 2 C) C) _ _ _ 2 _ _ _ 2 _ C) _ C) - W0382$1664171 ( ) - I - C d166413 2 _ C C 1 C 1 _ 1 _ P.21 ___ _ 1 A __l _ _n _ _ 4 - _ 2 _ 4

W.db. d 24s C)1 1 1 10 _ 2 B14 r h. 22 2 l C) 10 _ 2 C

do _ __ 2 C _ le C _- C

At1POS 1C0 1 4 6 74 2 9 C) 4 C)

50 22 C _ 2 19 _ _ _ C C

', 0 of _ - 206 - C)1 C)1 12 0 C _ 2

80 1 _ _ _ 1I P d h _ _S66 _ 10 _ _ C) 2 C) 7 _ I _ 6666* 58 _ C) C) - 4 _ _ _ ay 11 2_ 1_ 0 3d

19 83

Tdl20. _ mw d r Id -_I . Paon f b n p" I - by typ md dmaon of psymV men mid bws MM god

T~w .1 wm-ftTw ~ L- I M.&,l- w.iM Of li - ITU-I d3 1 1 .[II .Iin] ...... ______d______Ihl|1 3 | 4 |2 0 2741| 52 | - | V

Fh.d -dy0 4bo. 13 )) 2 -I 9 - S~479 __ 1 ) I) C) _ -

L- V- Sao I - S124'139- = .. 2 e..e..e.., : : : :

92004219 _ _ =-. 1 - - - W 9 9Wb _ =f II C) _to_ WBdy __ lo _ C) 10 C) C) - ) BY _It0 of _ _ 1 _ d..ft~~I I - - C

T.dl.ftd W408001

Al_ .. 100 4 10 7 64 3 6 C) 7 C)

Rl so 0,67 I 7 6 4a 2 1 C) 5 C L~mi5O...... _____ 1 - - - - C) 5 0 ______25 1 2 2 20 - C) _ C) C) 5S _1 - 2 1 C), - -2 ______. 15 C) 2 I2 _ C) 2 as C) - ) 67 ______13 ) 3 70 ...... 10 C) C) - C) 2 - C ) 1 - - - C 75_._ = 2 _ C) C) C) C) C) : l'd 0oI_1*g o_ _ 10 _ C) 1 4 C) 3 _ 1 e,~ ...... ~_ - 1 2 _ 3 _ _ Bylhod&f d 0.___- 2 C) _ C)2 C) 1 _ E'y _p __ _ .. - C) 2 _ _ _ I

FWd - d1 11b.1 - 13 2 2 I 7 _ _ I I l_ tlal SW10 _ _ _ 4 1 - 3 M00470 . I C) C) C) C) -

011004119 2 I C) I - ) 000100______~4 . . - I) C) C) C)) _ ..

12004210.) -) C) _

____ e1, 4 9 b -...... C _) _) .. _- W.-SBy ddW b..___ . _ lo1 _ - 17 C _20100 _ ____* .__ C)10 - - - ) - - - 7- -C) e By noft I01f Io

S.. 0000100..000W 0b01d

20 84

Tm. 20. S~cknesswid accddwitkimnumu Po Castof fiS4bn. pu~~u by typs mduaNtIIW of paymsnta, meia wid WV 9kMI IW5-CoSwed

S~n 4-25 20 2.01 02 o-0 by no 13 I52 -aII..

A~yo...... 100 2 13 0 52. 2 I9 - 7 C Fh~d - d l*g.33 C) 3 3 24 C)- 2 C LM VW so ...... C)- - - - 50...... 12 C) 2 2 9 ) - ) C 55 ...... ~...... C. ) 98 . . 10 C C) 1 7 - C 62 ...... C - - C es.5...... -...... I..-.... )... 70...... ~.I......

P.,Md of "do ...... -. . C. By "nM. .. I - - - By l.Vth of ~b ...... )...... -... By WMO-. *n en lenth Wf

Fbnd .WloWb .n. M. -...... 34 1 9 1 17 I 2 2 - ss0-0 ------3--)...... -4C) I

51l0D9119...... 5 I) 1 3

$14024159.--. 4 - ) - 3 C) I - - - 6160179 . 3 - - - 3 - C) - ) - 91804199...... 4 - C ) I C $2004219 .... I - C

W.* dWy4.MnbaneIns- ..~ 31 C I I 9 C) I5s 4 C .Yee-- i ...... - 29 CaC I 9 C 15 - 3 C) By 0,im00 9 angt o d.~~I~y -...... -- ~2 C ) - C ) C

1.L-000.0.0 pannt NO2TE.Ban- od -W0,0, 805 k.Wkkhd Sent nsyn **We OW 0.4 khd.0 WlagloypeW du0. o~nmy

21 85

TIs 21. 66460.NW IIdacIdnbi tm.wcdo of Rfiioh -m1Icc- 2-6W bumfll basedan pw -Of em,g I ed by mim "ei bene06 mdka NWdM. *me, IMS

I - I I rl I lT1

Tow~ ~~ lo0 a 3 6 4 2B 6 6 2 4 2 7 322 Pmdof 'g 20 67 3 6 4 26 6 6 2 4 2 7 06 t46eam III___ -. 20 __ _ _2__ 0 26 2 1-7 -I 1 -2 -I4 *6 - I - - - C C) C) C) C)- OD ______26 21 I 2 3 C) 2 6 1 2 I 2 6 *2- ) C - C

67 _ _ - la__1 la C) 1 C) I I C) C 2 2 70 _ _ 4 2 - ) C - C ) C

VW6so I - - - - C) C - - - 1 2

F~p~a~cf,*p...... 26 26 4 I 2 26 2 I I 7 4 L5 6,,0 __ - I I a a~~~2 I4 2 C I I C - 4 07 15 13 - - - 3 2

so ~ -~ ~ 16 I C) C - C P.= ___w __- 4 2 C) - C - C 13)-

TOW.. 106 as 2 2 4 31 4 6 3 2 1 6 34 P- I f67 26 2 2 4 21 4 6 2 2 I 6 24 06 __ _ _ _ 33 26 2 1 - 21 C C) 2 C) a 06 ~ ~I I C)-- C) C) - 26...22- 0 17 I I 23 C 2 4 I I C 4 8 26 6 ) - - - - C - ) - 6 67______... 17 14 C) I C 1I ) C ) C 4 I 76 _ _ _ _ _ I ) C 1 2 w 2 C - - C)2

P.=oa delale..V...... 13 2 … … … … ) ) 1 1 12

T.W~~~~ 106 75 2 6 4 26 7 II 3 3 3 6 26 Fb 6d4 71 3 8 4 26 7 II 3 3 2 6 06 16cIam ______06 ______33 26 I 2 - 1-4 29 2 -2 -1 - 2 7 06 ~ ~I I - - - C) C) C C) - - 26 _ _ _ N__2 06 1 6 4 1 2 7 C) I 1 2 6 12 - - C) C) - - - - )

67 ______21 1 ) I C 0 2 C 75 3~~~ 3 I - C ) C 2)I

P.= M - 1

Lee 6am oh NaOTE Bea of 066IO - kl46~ie Mmc cam4 cwo Ofth Dow.I1 06. -6 .I etb c ,. 86

T~. U. _m 9ndmm b umc kd d 4.S_ puUm hi k.b§°rUhII

1oW T4Ch. /aw 0 wd d0 1.IskA rhwo _ K dww gm pw 4~. Pa"p _ POS

Tow ______10 100 100 100

W2hW _ *- 79 e7 45 52 I4 0dm 24 21 25 22 2 nn 1 ~~~~~94 6 "l 43 12SOmI 5 12 4100dm 5 5 4 5 a4 _4 4 1 O,.lpin ~~~~~~~~II 2 ( wWow44. Mdmm*m44..... 21 25 24 Is &p. mqm4 Ks

100.w4144oam3 104- -it be 01 ft job bdmm 11" m44 byd, 8 Pb. VIMb UatUI 21 m4We *W Thl b km

- _~.~ 1342h9_ nem.*" 0btId * 134400,.4 3 MgOSW2 q=

- LowDad Om_ k> 0.5 rowrms444"_

NI uhWCeh _ gkr h bat*.

TS 23. Lmrgfm .myu Pemit of ub4mw bybI meffod of d _ I mmm NW NW n*m 1N Al ~ gsu. W4s4 4 T.44 04 dm1.4 on pu_

T Fmno _0= = .* To == W F= _ TowS == PO&_V,= TowS =

Al nmS_ 100 U 02 100 to 31 100 75 25 IW el 32 R _baud ald*I 74 64 IS 81 50 21 20 a4 14 25 48 11 L so3244--. I I f) I I e) I I - I I - 7002p.44 aS 02 4 2 132 7 24 18 2 21 20 3 00p5 I I I' I I (M I I I I I M' 00P046 ______10 1 47 345 12 44 I 54 24 5 7 S'.d7 _ 10 a 2 1I 9 2 12 1 2 7 a I 0Dps4.444.400m~.-.--- 2 1 2 2 1 3 2 1 I5 (

Po31oWinbhy..45..... 10 a 4 II1 a 2 Is 9 2 7 5 2

l426by SI, ...... - 10 2 a I ( 2 1 1 27 a 24

04 ______2 5 6 I 1 5 0 3 5 3 2

.,b_n m p4 pbm63y p.444d _rb -,6 byhqi d444_ . -' M4,bhd44.46 daft 4242y 642442W01 uoof psy.1.2 44W& - ph I I uto ron ha Wthu440hm2 f WM40 MK* " LTDpplnt .P.dl_ hs. a t~m-fi d bolh NDTE B- nd h42A" ' L.g O5 p Wu& Dahl hl4 K j1S hoa. ea. * h2dos fild do_ ... tn .. &td p.w4 Of

23 87

Tab 2Loorb. dinability_ Peren Of 6d._. pWl_~.i. by *rbon ofd _ , _ teal

Mon Td. M.N d bwf xk p d GM W-

Tom ___ *00 100 go 100 Una* _ --1 AOW 21 21 22 20 AO es __ _ le le to l AM M3- 3 3 3 3

D..mo bdfIdls - 73 72 73 74

IJY *. l 34 31 31 41 1nd..pf1.fi7.G.&.W .1_. 38M001011~008*.1. 40M.8dMb 40 86-33 0_.___.___._._b___ 6 8 5 S

'Th. .p1.0 018b. y.0g crftd Laah*1V- 1,OaSl pa

MCOo d.0*_ Th. d .1d lb58 5m t d

US QaM| - Dbt0aM*p hA ME.pb.-d cr.WfidPA0888.1010100808181006 kE: B-_ d rt Ow WU dh bt mq- nof.. l1 Tab25 Lcogt~m. oaP'" h.aw .-P0 i.Mad y W.06

h041D W"b~ by 1 _nti J _vmrq~oetfor paro'oila, ldf SW W" *MO i

P18- W. Tel.

- 80b w dd. lps.

P Pt

T06 _ _ .t*001____._ .______100 100 100 wr,1 1 ...... _ . 68 72 6e I .' _11 12 9 10 2111.1. _. _ 4 3 2 7 30_..10. _ __ 16 13 10 18 4-4511. 2 1 1 4 6010_1.-_ .12 11 12 13 1 ...... 15 16 19 a 2 t_ o_ .2 .___.2 M ___ ... 3 wvn _ .I .3 _____._ __.2 0_ a.8 7 7 4

W-lf _ _. _q_ 31 32 28 34

' .h L0 *1. - .Y n 8be. 0- 8 job b800. O" c . qd by *pi. MM f. at1M bp 6Vb8 *041 Th..l T.h

kkdd h 81. _*, * L a 800.5 C001t L- &-OZ p.-*o

24 88

Chapter 4. Health and Life Insurance

Along with paid holidays and paid vacations, health Os-ua6h vgsw and life insurance ar the most widespread employe Prf.M1Vaa Twchs and arid benefits in medium and large firms. Both benefits were ol-toab i AU ca,---,- d fdi provided to 96 percent of all employees, and the extent of coverage was nearly identical within each of the Total. 100 oos tea tsu Wnh iroeo three occupational groups covsa .. 73 77 77 69 Wshom rt H cutrane mvess ...... 24 20 20 27 Virtually all of the participants in health insurance Pro.toan not plans were covered for the major categories of medi- dslounabtok 3 3 3 3 cal care, such as hospital room and board, care by phy- sfcans and surgeons, diagnostic X-ray and laboratory These plans nearly always covered retirees up to age work, prescription drugs, and private duty nursing (ta- 65, and generally provided the same benefits given to ble 26) Among benefits less commonly provided were active employees (table 27). In over nine-tenths of the vision care (covering 35 percent of the participants), cases, retirees remained insured after 65. Again there hearing care (17 percent), and routine physical exams was commonly no change in benefit levels, apart from (13 percent). Unlike most other employee benefits, there coordination with Medicare. were few differences in health insurance provisions Regardless of the retiree's age, premiums for retiree among employee groups. insurance were fully company-paid in plans covering The various categories of medical care are covered nearly three-fifths of covered participants; but for one- tenth, protection continued only if the retiree paid the under I of 3 benefit arrangements Basic benefits only, cov- major medical benefits only, or basic benefits plus ma- full cost. For one-third of the participants in plans ering retirees under age 65 and one-quarter in plans jor medicaL Basic benefit plans cover a specific medi- retirees age 65 and older, the company shared cal service (such as hospitalization) and generally do covering not require deductible or coinsurance payments by in- the costs with the retirees. sured individuals.' Conversely, major medical plans Hospitalanbg (tabk 28). The most costly compo- cover many categories of care and usually have both nent of health care is that provided by a hospital. Nearly deductible and coinsurance features. In-hospital care one-half of all personal health care expenditures in the was most commonly covered by an arrangement that United States are for hospital care.' VirtuaLy all of the offered basic coverage plus supplemental major meD- participants in health plans analyzed in this study re- cal coverage. Certain categories of medical care, such ceived coverage for hospital expenses. as private duty nursing, visits to a physician's office, For most employees, insuranoe covers all initial hos- and prescription drugs, usually were covered only as pital room expenses; however, a growing minority must major medical benefits. Dental and vision care were al- pay part of the first-dollar coats The percent of health most exclusively covered as basic benefits. Regardless plan participants with only major medical coverage in- of the benefit arrangement used, most health plans lim- creased to 33 percent in 1985, from 28 percent in 1984 ited the size of benefit payments. and 19 percent in 1983. These employees typically must A majority of the participants were in health plans pay both an initial deductible and a percentage of sub- extending coverage into retirement:' sequent hospital room charges. Of the 66 percent of 'The ddflnti isaa sfiod t of _i.a eps tht an health insurance participants with basic hospital cover- arotd pese neat pay bsfors breofit will bo paid by lbs ps. Co- age, 13 percent must pay a specified amount per admis- ms ua. piovson whebc both thc (.ousd patipast ad dis siOn or, in some cases, pay for the first day of fron ailte or miry. T-hs -unosfXoftC ithc confine ment paid by tbs ptan (as 'Re IL ANrM H!t David R Mcltik. Salty T. Sesfs. aid 'Tbc rsY inctddd MY t J-pidess finr the insg mtes Car S, Cowdl, "Projecti offt b CarsC Spadia o t199O. ia 1995. Had, Ca7s RsftRt s , Spring 19fJ p. 1-3&

25 89

Of those that received basic hospital coverage, 95 cost down and discourage unnecessary use of medical percent were in plans that paid room and board ex- services. A deductible amount of $100 has been the penses up to the semiprivate rate. providing some pro- most common since the survey's inception in 1979, ap- tection against rising hospital charges. Eighty-five per- plying to nearly half of all plan participants However, cent of the participants in basic hospital pilns had ceil- 29 percent were required to pay deductibles of S150 or ings on the duration of coverage. Two-thirds had plans more in 1985, up from 21 percent in 1994 and 12 per- which specified the ma-imum number of days covered cent in 1983 (chart 1). Higher amounts were less preva- per confinement, most commonly 120 or 365 days. Most lent for blue-collar workera than for white-collar of the remaining plan5 limited the duration of coverage workers. by specifying a maximum dollar amount per admission Once the worker meets the deductible requirement, or per year.' Additional coverage was usually available the plan pays a specified percentage (coinsurance) of under a major medical plan for cases that exceeded incurred expenses. Almost seven-eightis of the partici- these limitations. pants were in plans that paid 90 percent of expenses, with the remaining 20 percent to be paid by the worker. Surgcal coverage (tabe 29). Seventy percent of health For over three-fourths of the participants, however, the plan participants had basic coverage for surgery in 1985. percentage paid by the plan increased to 100 percent Three-fourths of these participants had plans with pay- after a specified level of expenmes was incurred during ment based on the "usual, customary, and reasonable" a year. For example. a plan might pay 90 percent of charge for the procedure performed, up from 69 per- the first $5,000 of covered expenses and 100 percent cent in 1984. Although most of these plans paid 100 thereafter, thus limiting the employee's "out-of-pocket" percent of such charges, 16 percent of the participants cost to S1,000 (n addition to the deductible). Incidence were in plans that paid between 80 and 95 percent or of this protection has increased each year since 1979, imposed an overall dollar limit on surgical payments. when less than one-half of the major medical partici- The remaining quarter of participants with basic surgi- pants were covered." cal benefits were covered by a schedule of payments, Benefits for 82 percent of major medical participants listing the maximum amount payable for each opera- were subject to a ceiling on the amount payable by the tion. Charges in excess of the scheduled amount were plan, usually a lifetime maximum. In 1985, the most usually covered by a major medical plan. common limitation was $1 million; $250,000 had been the most prevalent limit in previous years. The average Major medical coverage (tables 30-32). Major medical 3 lifetime maximum was S5 0.000-an increase of nearly benefits, provided to nearly nine-tenths of the health $200,000 since 1982. insurance participants, generally covered a wide range of medical services both in and out of the hospital. Dental coverage (tables 33-36). Over three-fourths of There are two types of major medical plans: One sup- the participants in health insurance plans received cov- plements basic benefits either by covering expenses erage for dental expenses, about the same as in 1984. which exceed basic benefit limitations or by covering This ended a period of strong growth in dental care; expenses not paid by the basic plan, the other is com- in 1979, one-half received coverage. Nearly all dental prehensive and stands alone without basic plan cover- pins covered a wide range of services including ex- age. Comprehensive major medical policies have been aminations, X-rays, and restorative procedures such as embraced by employers seeking to contain costs of pro- fillings, periodontal care, and inlays. Plans covering or- viding health care. because they may eliminate first-dol- thodontic expenses, at least for dependent children, cov- lar coverage. ered 73 percent of employees with dental benefits in With very few exceptions, major medical benefits are 1985. not paid until the participants have paid a deductible, Dental payments were most commonly based on a The purpose of this deductible is to keep the premium percentage of the usual, customary, and reasonable charge for a procedure. The percentage covered by a '. trit is e f y on i-d ipreh- -m aedi- plan generally depended on the type of procedure per- set pba. Ther pfm ally sever thipl pe n Ibll sp to a formed. Less costly procedures such as examinations tIfidd dothe. .it per -fi-A (typifay bet-ee ajwum and *wd55 sad 0 p t fter. For this tmdy,the ra er- X-rays were usually covered at 80 or 100 percent. age porniw-m a*r i teiadbeia etpeoesit so peruse FiUlings, surgery, and periodontal care were most likely - major maie to be covered at 80 percent More expensive proce- 'Caairhv mar anad pli be bke- dowe ano ncw dures-inlays, crowns, and orthodontia-were often ma madi-d vmse AD mp ovrd -e bjospt the do dl as Piov_ sadie the ria vi, whre "Tr i maor _ads tennitr are-ra5sad by Dongls Hdgr the madia re nht sover hoq or _erpisd rgist od sld Sch.itt is '-rsd is MaJor Mats Coverg Dri epsina is fa spnto a pdifled dollar . eithe te ppli- a Peiod of RiMSagCo.,' M.A* Lob RWe.. July 1953,pp. don of *ddeee. (Abs, m foot-oi L) I1-lo

26 90

Chart 1. Trends In selected deductible amount Percent of full-time participants In major medical plans, medium and lah fimns, 197985 Percent 60 - - -\ -

50 -

40 - ___

30 - _ _ _de _ducttIs or l..a /

20 -

10______

1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 provided at 50 percent Of the usual customary, And than blue-collar workers to have pans with deductible reasonable charge. About one-fifth of the dental plan participants were Ninety percent of dental plan particpants were en- offered reimbursement based on a schedule of cash al- rolled m plan thet limited the mount of payment each lowances. In this type of arrangement, each procedure yesr by specifying a yearly maximum benefit. Although is subject to a specified maximun dollar amount that nlany plans have raised their limits since 1980, there can be paid to the participant. Preventive procedures ws Httle hge between 1984 and 1985. In both years, wer lesslikely to be subject to this type of scedule the moat common limit was $1.0W. Orthodontic serv- than reatorative procedures. ices were almot always subject to lifetime maimums. T7wo percent of dental plan participnts had services which have increased since first tabulated in 1980 Life- covered by an incentive schedule. Under this arrange- time maximum of Sl.000 or more for orthodontia ap- ment, the percentage of dental expenses paid by the plied to 44 percent of participants m dental plans pro- plan increases each year if the participant is examined viding this benefit in 1985, up from 17 percent in 1980Q regularly by a dentist. Unlike other basic health benefit, dental plans typi- Moatihuanzf (wbl 37). In 1985, of the par- cally required participants to pays specified deductible ticipants m plans with mnl heath benefits. 57 per- amount before the plan paid any benefits. The moat cent had mor restrictive hospital coverage for ment common requirement was a S25 or S50 deductible to illnesses thn for physical ailments, up from 52 percent 'be met by the participant each year. However, ome in 1984 and46 percent in 1983. These plans usually re- of the hospital say (often 30 days plans required the participant to pay s deductible (- duced the duration ally S55)only once while a mnber of the plan rather for mental health cre in bade hospiatl benefits, e-o than every year Whhe-colr workers were more ikely pared to 120 or 365 days for other ilineases) or imposed 27 91

a separate maximum on covered hospital expenses (such were covered for vision care expenses in 1985, up from as a lifetime maximum of S25,000 on mental health bene- 30 percent in 1984 and 18 percent in 1979. Although fits). Even more restrictive was coverage for mental gain were made in all 3 occupational groups, plans for health care outside the hospital (psychiatric office blue-collar workers were typically more comprehen- visits). Outpatient mental health care was usually cov- sive than those for white-collar workers. ered in the major medical portion of a plan, where: (I) Hearing care was available to 17 percent of partici- ceilings were often placed on the amounts payable for pants in 1985, up from 14 percent in 1984, and 10 per- each visit and/or each year, and (2) the coinsurance cent in 1983. rate for nonhospital treatment was often 50 percent, compared to 80 percent for physical illnesses. Also, Cost containment (table 40). Inline with efforts to con- limits on annual out-of-pocket major medical expenses tain costs of health care, an increasing number of plans usually did not apply to outpatient mental health care. provided less expensive alternatives to a hospital stay. Coverage for treatment in extended care facilities in- Other health benfltr (tables 38-39). The incidence of creased from 62 percent of plan participants in 1984 to alcohol and drug abuse provisions increased sharply for 67 percent in 1985; coverage for home health care rose the second consecutive year. The percent of partici- from 46 percent to 56 percent, and availability of cov- pants covered for alcoholism treatment grew from 61 erage for hospice care rose from It percent to 23 per- to 68 percent between 1984 and 1985, and for drug cet. Lengths of hospital admissions were decreased by abuse treatment, from 52 to 61 percent (chart 2). provisions for prehospitalization testing, which covered Thirty-five percent of health insurance participants nearly half of the participants Other cost containment

Chart 2. Coverage for selacted types of medical care: Precent of full-time participants In health Insurance plans, medium and large firma, 1984 and 1985

Extended car.

Drug abue. treotm ~nt - Home hedth

care

* Coverage In 198 Hoeming _ Coverge 1tnre-.,e in 1985 Care

0 25 50 75 100 Percent

79-018 0 - 88 - 4 92

measures, first studied in 1985, encouraged outpatient of commercial insurance policies or Blue Cross-Blue surgery as an alternative to inpatient surgery. Cover- Shield plans. These arrangements covered, for exam- age for treatment at ambulatory surgical centers was ple, 60 percent of the health insurance participants with provided to 39 percent of the participants One-fourth basic hospitalization benefits in 1985, and 53 percent of of the participants received higher reimbursements or those with major medical benefits- paid lower deductible amounts for certain surgical pro- Self-insured health plans, however, have been grow- cedures performed on an outpatient basis. ing in importance. In 1985, at least one-fourth of the Second surgical opinions were paid for under plans workers receiving the benefits shown in table 43 (basic covering half the health insurance participants in 1985, hospital, basic surgical, basic medical, major medical, double the percentage when first analyzed only 3 years and dental benefits) were under self-insured plans of in- earlier. For I in 2 of these cases, incentives were individual employers or labor-management groups This cluded for obtaining an additional surgeon's opin- proportion has doubled since 1980. Such self-insurance ion-plan payments for many types of surgery were was most prominent as a source of major medical and either lower or not made at all if the second opinion was dental benefits. Employers commonly contract with not obtained. commercial insurers to protect their self-insured plans Other cost containment provisions, such as offering against medical claims exceeding a predetermined main- higher reimbursement for generic prescription drugs mum dollar amount. and discouraging nonemergency weekend hospital ad- About 7 percent of the health insurance participants mission, were less common. covered by the survey were enrolled in Health Manu- tenance Organizations (HtMOs). An HlMO is a prepaid Emploe contribsaons (table 41). lThe percent of em- health care plan that delivers comprehensive medical ployees whose health insurance premiums are wholy services to enrolled members for a fixed periodic fee." paid by their employers remained nearly stable in 1985. Sixty-one percent of workers had employee coverage Wfe basrance (tables 44-48) wholly financed by their employers in 1985, about the Nearly all full-time employees within the scope of same as in 1984. Forty-two percent also could receive the survey participated in life insurance plans in 1985; fully employer-paid coverage for their dependents, the almost nine-tenths had the cost of a basic plan paid first time this proportion has not fallen since first tabu- wholly by the employer. Life insurance coverage has lated in 1980. kept pace with earnings since 1979, either through an Exact data on the amount of an employee's contri- increase in specified dollar amounts of insurance or butions for health benefits sometimes were not avail- through increased maimumns in formulas linked to able because payroll deductions applied to an insurance earnings- policy covering both health insurance and one or more Basic coverage for two-thirds of all life insurance other benefits. However, where the amount was re- participants was based on their earnings, enabling the ported, employee premiums for single and family cov- level of protection to automatically increase with a rise erage averaged approximately S12 and $38 a month, in pay. Earnings-based formulas were much more preva- respectively-nearly unchanged from 1984 (chart 3). lent among white-collar workers (82 percent) than Employee premiums were somewhat lower for produc- among blue-colar workers (48 percent). The most com- tion participants than for the other two groups. In some mon method of tying life insurance protection to earn- instances, included in the calculation of average em- ings was to multiply the employee's annual earnings by ployee premiums, employees contributed only for a sup- a factor of I or 2 and round the product to the next plemental plan, such as an optional dental plan financed Sl,000. For example, an employee earning 522,700 jointly by employer and employees. would receive S46,000 of coverage under a plan providing two times earaings ($22,700 times 2 equals Piraicaonreqsment (able 42) Fifty-four percent S45,400, which is rounded up to $46,000). of participants were required to complete minimum Nearly one-half of all employee in mutltiple-of-earn- length-of-service periods before joining a health plan. ings plans had insurance equal to annual earnings. One- These service requirements usually were periods of 1, third had coverage equal to twice annual earnings- Pro- 2, or 3 months. The incidence of service requirements feasional-administrative participants had the highest varied markedly among the employee groups. While coverage, with plans commonly providing multiples of nearly three-fifths of professional-administrative em- two or more times their earnings- Multiple-of-earnings ployees could participate immediatey, two-thirds of formulas tended to be higher when employee contrbu- production workers had some waiting period "HSMO pladPtueid th- the _udrdi l hthh Me I Id by Alia Blsi ud Wlm- Ugly h, Fundbig mediun (tbl 43). Employers typically r andOdb-e H hh-4venp C Empi.yed PrenaJs=& range for health care coverage through the purchase Mal Lrba Row, Jlae 1953 p. 29-33.

29 93

chart S Averae employee oontribitions for hearlh Insuaince, medium and lage firms 1245 UsWy entrlbution On ddos)_ 50 -

ond leric DI Faml aeevg IN

Productio d

30 -

20 -

kidivi coverage

1982 1983 1984 1985

tons were required, typically providing s at production workers averaged St0,0006 slightly higher two or more time earninge. than the averagefor the other two groupa. While usu- lbere wa no upper limit on life insurance for more ally providing much maier amounts of insurance than than one-half of participants in multiplO-pf-ellinIe earnin-ased formu flat amount coveage has inn plana. Whae limita existed the proortion of employ- proved participants in plans providing bendits of 1ns ea ifth maimau r SIOOtOOhas declined froinm than SS,000 decreased from 29 percnt in 1981 to 13 one-half to one-Mb ioce 1979; the-peront with maxi- percet in 1985; moat of the offsetting increase was in mu . over 25=000 bas increased correapondingly. amounts of S15,COOor more, whicb, during the smee Thity-e per t of ife insurac plan participants period, grew in incide from 7 to 18 percent of had a flat dollamount of insurance, regardless of workels i d by flat amounts. ernings. One-halfof all productionworkerparticipants If a participant became totally disabled, life insurance were covered by a uniform amount, compared with 14 in nearly all plans was continued, either for life or until percent of whiecollar workers. Uniform amounts for age 65. To qualify under disability provisions, the employee w usually required to be under a specified age 'Tbs Illre a I ue w exeimoly e -. (commonly age60) at the time of dimbilty. For a few aid obly ra ae seawbdSI _ n RePWWretdv plans, the amount of covage was payable to the dis- l widelyfia 7 am to9cM per 51l M Ii - peaW abled employee in lump-gum or -intlentform. applIedeeyto in metOMo dc*Wshedaled I eecIEau ew. or. Almost three-fourths of all life insurance participants hae ~s (froexample,the a Silt.5 OfooueW). Dds wer act .vl~lcen i.id .P ...e. PI..,p~p-,lpas hew- had additional insurance coverage if accidental death see baa p1apell dedi eame WPOSd tadi- Dase or dismemberment occurred. The anmt of i ce -occoerinlg Hfel wa - aena otcher be= was usually doubled in the cm of acdentl deah.

30 94

In addition to braic coverage, some employers of- was a fiat am t of SICO. Higer amounts, however, fered their workers supplemental life insurance that was were available more often for spoases than for child- at least partially employer financed. The typical sup- ren; Spouse coverage of S2,000 or more applied to one- plemental plan provided insurance in multiples of I to half of the participants with dependent life in e, 3 times annual earnings. Only 6 percent of the employ- but similar coverage for a child applied to only one- ees, ranging from 9 percent of professional-administr- fifth of these workers. Instead of a flat amount, cover- tive workers to less than 3 percent of production age for a child stisnes increased at specified ages: workers, were participants in these plans. For ezsupLe. no covesge until 14 days old, then S250 Thirteen percent of participants were in plans which until 6 months, followed by S5W up to a year, and provided monthly income to surviving fimily members, S1,000 tereafter. nesrly always in addition to life insurance beneit Sur- Minimum lesgth-of-ervice requirusentb for partici- veyed for the first time in 19S5, survivor income bene- pation were found in plan covering 53 percent of fits were usually paid to the spouse, but sometimes d- workers with life inrnce. The incidence of these pro- ther to the spoue, children, or parents of the deceased visons has decreased gradually each year from 61 per- employee. Benefits generally consisted of either a flst cent in 1981. As is the cae for health and and dollar amount or percent of employee earnings, pay- accident insurance, service requiresents are generally able for a limited period, such as 24 months. In some 3 months or less. plans, payments were designed to bridge the gap be- For 62 percet of all participants, basic life inurance tween the employee's death and the spouse's remarry- continued after retirement. The preretement amount ing or qualifying for other benefits, such as Social of insurance, however, was reduced in nearly all in- Security. sxtnce' Other forms of life _sursne-accidental Life insurance on workers' spouses and unmarried death and dissmnberment, supplemental, and depend- dependent children also is sometimes available One- ent coverage-were seldom available after retirement. fifth of life insurance participants had employer-fi- "`F5'soatrIol'the ttasndtastu. m a redify - nanced dependent coverage in 1985; in most cases, the ta aktqagbYotd _rete 1 - , e dattmil ute employer paid all of the cost. Nearly all plans covered a- of ungoWa sunY M - -ee feron- Fo de- dependent children as well as spouses. The most com- tai - A. , "AgoetdAas attsn ta wke mon coverage for death of esther a spouse or a child Ldl-t M-a&b L.e R.*tA, SqPb. IM Fpp 29-34

31 95.

Tab U "amH Pcml at fufbn I I I l by cc g fadIcted c l-g- ot msW c _m_, - urgegd 1565it . T _ .. . I 0.. pMII

By,bmk Toal Bb~ Ay b.Mft 1 Al -jo o

-Com o a-on d P"_ 32 47 100 47 . Alloof W 19 54 Al 100 19 24 12 2 100 5782 21 100 55 82 9 44II- 100 15 100 IA OMmd 19 80 100 45 100 7, 2 182 27 1 c__ 182 14 100 9W754 J2 100 72 21 VW.5 182 6 I6 so 411 go 5 -dkg - 42 Ed Pm~od-.- 182 so 41 100 AS n39 54 100 18 31 12 100 "I 10 2.1 79 20 21 Hm4h 100 32 82 100 3282 41 100 25 82 25 Vfan -- 1 8 24 100 127 M 182 52 29 100 174 75 3 2 °2. 57 - 182 7424 _kn-~~ h9M 182 37 O_ 46* IU 0-oaE 8~ b 100 21 100 10 -.-a WA 27 w 375 42 100W 51 - -9 14 34 182 67 22 12 67 0.5 182 57 82 35 10 43 0n 25 1782 82487 100W 21 10 5482 11 T _ _ca.114- 100W 25 S1 1001820 W 87 24 12 _5 82I 100 a6 71 _I 25 _

32 96

Tab. 28. Hoetb Ph__ of hfi46. p by C.wqag for selected cotagole. of undiCdl _mcbm odml WV1 6mh 1945-C6

Cat.my ad .kw co r TOa By twei. C ra

0661.116 014 h______b 100 6 20 20 52 1 H____~~~~~~~~~~~~O_ so 20 m 1 SlI Ea4-dad o4100 l 18 25 so 3 E~frfd care 1ad IW 28 21 1 35 Sl h_1 ______100 64 33 l a 46 6 m.....l... 100 66 33 24 42 1 Pnkiada 1 ___-46_ __.__ 100 c 1e 46 37 1 R"W. Adme-otsc 100I_ 1 7 75 9 0 lb X." d . 100 go 25 31 3 AWo. I_0 W. 22 73 3 2 d _ _ 10to, 10 6 03 I 10 Mental hold6car1 00 18 27 50 1 D _.__ _..__ .______100 73 71 3 27 VW______1 1 37 32 5 ( 63

'A Pbt16. 66668 -I a bad 6481.461. 641 00... b C_d ~1. hill.4 64. Sp66?o l1. _.s~ 3.66.618(244- * Co ad 6thft-d hl.4. n by d. A_6. 0183641..8 (28. p8n 00 6 h . amd . I 8. (1) h4 P,7 6 d 6 ad 61 _o T,.M11 6f ad hpy or hA866400h hSby (2 64664 J6 p.ad ad bnn,4161 v8864. d618 *s 9..40. 4do 6 1. Pb1 dd 64t _a 186. Cl (3)86446,4 dd.76 8|.. _.4861.661411.6.1611.b_666 f,0 do.). whn

027 Fcra .pO68y ad - Fl. n. ,q. 61. w- 64dad1 110.1. drs6 1.4 ad 61. _ 8 ( d 4687 p664 1.001 .*6 61461 1or (d.111)1. cr 6 by *9.1.4 _4

41*6 d.1 1r I_ (r4 wa dT 1.8 aps h a _d61 hl 46* 11.60. n1l81 00t 1114400664. _6 417.48 .61 3.. 6 0.65on dand.116b41. 000..46140 dhnn~ awedlbn184.61

644 by d860. ad 006W1.1. 71.661.1.61.1 1.8 877884.g64 4 r8U- -9 R. d-ft Www68h0 _ DMW e.

Tadl 27. Hdm II_=Pnt of h114m pw_ h-In ple with coverage aftdr 0-ma by _om.61t ro6l 41 780of _6 md lage flmm, 1se

Al W_ | Taldd ad |ll PlloIl

B. d6.4P R86805 P Rs 0 R.. d.u PR*.60es Pd6 68P es68 e5 a <1' e5 a _- es ao o 0 asov Tda1 _ _------100 100 100 300 100 100I IW 1W

Wihff -._a p'...... go 91 100 95 99 84 IWD 00 E1f6tdf 6.1.M Wal NDo Inh. ___ 61 73 03 77 e2 7e 79 67 R..d _.. __ __ 15 l 13 15 II 13 is 18 -.18..d o..W. . I I.... ) 3') 2 I n I N.t dW.,46I __-_-_- 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 2 48.dr Shr of66o FReCoal ...... 10 10 9 10 9 10 I I 10 Peru __ _ 31 23 34 25 35 25 2e 21 No -- _ 55 54 51 55 S 1 55 59 53 Not O..dm ___- 4 4 5 5 5 5 3 3

WMW 6.00.W. 1 9 (' 6 I 6e 12

' NbM8 p1 k6 ddl _.o. 8 m40 fd onn" or Fd1d POV W .1tern_4._ Th11tablebbh R b h M4pl '.0 Laow 4 0S. g.17 h 6 186688 6 M . p8v46 omayronPA*- 641.87866 ID81p gmV be no4n.0.ft *-. h-8.6(1 046 b--n4 l k660 d.1 M (P1t163uow F. d6W. W4Menca b_4..41 bn4 c6. W ard - NOTE B. d r-Lft 61.06664dh161be my48ln 8.0.4 by ft.W*464w4hc 6o68 gm ms 446400 by 1 d.

33 97

TVIe 29 IlW bI PsnnI- of fud p cwla h pl wthM bas sts roo1mid bed or by y of benft payents and Wla to cooee, m11an d1 WVne 1915 .. ~~~~~~~~~S9s.o kid In on An-9d pa ofo1 9ad.0

Ty_n d s E _ _ I | _ 112 __ I - - I '

05 paS mit

TOW __._.__ ._ 100 6e 9 18 4 31 4 19 15

Ds WINWI a - .------_ 5 4 2_ 0^ ( I I L 9a L ------_0 ( _ S50499.._.__. .., 2 2 I _- _- _ 91004149_. I I 1 0 0 0 0 0 _ 91504199...._I. _ I 0 _ _ 1 - _ 920901or ...... t0. _ _ _. _ounela . . . _ . . . 95 62 9 17 4 30 4 is 15

To ... . . - - -...... 100 56 a 17 4 29 3 23 21

Boy dO.w o_ ...... _ 3 3 1 /1 2_ .. Lo sSSOan ..._ _ _ (' 0 _ _ I S09499_ _ _ () -)() 910048149 1--I...... 9199..199 . ... _.. . 1 -. _ S29crnn . . .. t0 _ 0.. _._ 0e 1 5 ...... 979. 53 5 17 3 25 3 23 21 T0dsdidl 7nd bCel

Tob_ .._...._ ...... 100 e o 7 20 6 24 2 20 20

OslydoflvdnWIoe - 2 2 I L 5d SW ...... 2 950.0S9...... _ _ _ 9100.9149 1 1 0 0 _ t _- 915009199. 1 _ _ 1 _ 0 _ 92000,19mo ,. _ _-) 0' \ -s _pto ...... 99 57 a6 20 0 23 2 20 20

Tdw _ _00 lw 74 11 17 4 37 5 1s 11

Doyd A ...... e 4 I 1 2 - LIss am50 .. . 1 0 0 _ - 950499.- 3 3 2 _ 1 1 $1004149 2 2 1_ 0 0 0 0 91004199 ...... _ ...... I 1I 1 92D00. n . I _ 0 0 0 - _ 0 S09tt " _ .. 92 as 7 19 4 36 5 14 11

'In pam 91. WM - dp ofasgp ae by Wo of tAsd d ns piod o Ow pt in te o ft eso-Wol to Ls 0s 0.9 PaaL hens- eath9. PI.. 15 y-s hb49 wk5 i pW* sm 9a heal bam.t 1. &t[tdby NOTE 1.e-a d ltolr en . amWn nol7t -a Iln 0d P. 0t t orP ,y_, 50 d0h PIl 000. 0o9 109 hoI 90o h 1 Y6 .h.5 oto 0 t. non 0f dpofd - p .bht

34 98

T le 2.S Nel t h arncew Percet of fhihe petlIeI hI plat with halo lo benefits by m rm fOr sec ts prc %md omend lag. *11, 1n 5 Pro.1 S1-d Tdi-. Mtcn ujon alpb-P. . d id Plov

PWS -ten.W. P.- a Om peoth&Pf

Tol_ . ; . . ... 10D 100 * 00 100 Dea a a w sod _snel dih s .. ' .._ . 75 83 tO 0e Wt~ onio doomc bet ezk pp ieiis -_ 5 4 4 5 wot ovl dii hi t l sglo a pyittt.l .... 70 79 78 64 Ph. p"t s o Oiii...... 2 2 1 2 t0pmo- i i...... i 2 2 C) 95tP...... 4 4 7 3 1i p.e. . .. s3 70 es 58 M oiu d dcfd _ono .... 25 17 20 31 MoOl -- 225104 2 t ...... , .) 1 C. 6301-2400 .) t C) S4014500 .... 2 1 2 3 S5014750 ... .5 3 2 7 S75141000. .... 5 3 3 6 301001-1250 .... 2 2 1 2 S1251415C _ 0 ._...... 3 2 3 4 S1501420 ..... 2 W23 3 1 S200142500 .... 1 1 I 1 5250143C .... 2 1 1 2 Mc ten S3000...... _ 2 1 2 2 Not dtndnel . .... _) C) ) C) Appfdt 21014150 .. C) _ 1. 21514225 3 2 2 4 S2014300 a 5 5 10 S301-400 ... 4 4 4 4 04014255...... 2 I i 4 5M14-750….. 5 3 5 6 Mm vtiS ..750.. I I C) 1 Noidsi~ i l .....d...). . I 2 C)

N~t f;" _ ...... ') 1 1 0514102 .. 10 0 7 13 S1014150... 5 4 7 S151420 ... 5 2 4 8 S2.1-3 .... 3 3 3 3 Moc thn s .. eC) ) C) C) Noldsa blt ..... 1 1 2 1

S 2 00 Id m...... _ ) C) C) $201- .... . 3 2 3 4 S 144 ...... 5 4 4 7 $4214502 . 3 2 2 4 0127 ..7 0. 5 5 4 6 S751410 . 4 2 3 6 S10014120 ...... 1 1 1 MM l S1250_ ... 1 1 C) I NoldMe*sb . .. 2 1 2 2

Le t 0.5 p.. *Iolod WU =sto Semiti " kobddby Hco20M ft-ii o Nigol * ... rdo to d allWys- W jiodd NOTE: oo3 of iadig. s 0l hod htl Omis iy nolW qoi 1W l. D i hid s no bloyc hI Ol oCt y.

35 99

Tdl9 30 HugO, _ Pgt of hdlkm potcpwb In plm 1 fmWmo I coverg by _flminof dsdlc4ft .65 _p~cb _aufil pwlod.' _ue.. midrugs m. 1969

AF_ | 11 .0ed | T ldl~ |60959 } p5 , pm

A4,,o,0 0) d~ii65U9 9.96V p lod

______~~~~TO p-l po*-.dT'podPWTWP.i Pow=- To' Whd 9945d

TOW _100 95 4 100 95 4 100 95 4 100 94 5

n_ _ _ 99 95 4 g9 95 4 99 95 4 99 94 5 BmHdo- .r*W 5 5 s _ 6 a _ 4 4 Flo d 0 _ _ 94 90 4 94 go 4 94 B9 4 95 90 5 U55,25 - = 2 n n 02 0 - 02 n - 02 0 n 2 1 1 2 1 I 2 1 I 2 1 0 $2.449 1 1 - 1 I I 1 I _ 996______13 13 0 13 IS 0 I I I n 15 15 n 975....- -- 3 a 0 2 2 n 2 2 n 4 4 0 976496 0 0 - I I I I - 0 0) 100 434 42_4 s 41 39 2 41 40 2 4n 44 3 1014124...... 0 0 - 0 0 0 0 - - - - 9101462____ _- n I I 2 1 n 2 2 n 1 $126449.. - m 0 0 0 - 0 - 0 $150 -2 1. 12 I 13 13 Is 14 1 10 9 1 $1514199... 0 0 - 1 1I 2 -_ 0 aw- -- - ~~1312 1 14 14 1 13 12 I II II U01492 9 n n 1 1 - I 1 0 sm55 _ 2 2 _ 2 2 _ 3 3 _ 1 I _ O- *M60 2 2 _ 2 2 _ 2 2 _ 1 _ NO'k.At ____- I - I - I -

* Th.dk.M6 Mth WM o .. .9194910411d9i59 VW9- 9999865 Th-. phi. h.. dd.M41. wh96h my byth91669110 Iif P91004 MM pay Wd- "1 IdgM peldby !.1 6 p. Th. 995 _ IF' A tplonhlWi1 10909.9I9 d9n1l p -t4d 1. brp 0 4- . dr I 4 d99ft5 o99150 WNW- 9911PM. 911*99 99.-,9 q.y6 to d96&.M b. k. '1.6.OZ9. p0, ..1 VII. . V-* ' " 90 d" A04 d d9.194 d .9 kb.rd p Hs. NOTE B of -. d.t -of9W9965,9dh-d It10 .Fd t> dWy phi 0*19WA. -idy di 1- pl9, k.. U& D0dh 965o1.. h0w1 i. .691y.

36 100

Tab 1. HuM I umm-.c. Poicso of fhG-bw p0SllCkt In plas. with mo md8 conog 8by7 p1ono6' mea. aId 1rge bma 198

|l ftb 1nd I Td. nd del. | ldud b

FkW198- p.W. P- _nb.N P"W_ ~ a P.- 081.10., - Pe0- -- W8--8590 TD1 8 a T81 91 191TD9 D 0a De e 9

To(.9...... -85 - 100 es 55 5 100 54 5 5100 e84 4 | 3 5 F81nl.1W %11.Q19..to100 P9...... 77 5 82 705 5 283 71 4 5 2708 8° 5523 $142,000___ __ 11 11I 0 11 11 0 0 10 8 0 t 0 12 11 - 0 0 SZ8D1.44...... 20 19C0o 1 2423 ) 24 230 s181500 452001.______25 2 1 2 224 210 272 24 2 1 22|2.22 1 I

5thn 1 0,03_0 _ __...... _. .. 4 34 3 1 3 21 1 35 ) - FPW awn- dloQ to 00_ OM8 100 p5.... _ _ 1 -- -- 0 1 1 -0 1-I - Cob9 _nd8.___..___ 22 19 1 31i13 31 12 - 3 29 8 1 2

C48888 I.v P.- ol0 co .d _ p9d by th. W. In 0 Iy all h.198_..88n peees 0109 .80 8d91er pL.. Th. W.-1Pl. 8 p9d by S. nO". 8 oob88l , -9 t wphWr . yaw 2 Ye p ft. - htm-,1 98 b. by ft cm0 of1 nl ., 51. P-Wm apb1 8Q 1es Om 0.5p8081 A118 An88 15m.- 8d89 1 I1 1_h0d b p.- NOTE. 8.h dr89, 9 0 kw0.w 091 n O m _-0111c088. r8.k f2.81581.808181011* 91.1.1-t 915. to198D.1 809188- Wnr in142.09gy. Oft

37 101

TabdeD HeMO I Peren oat fhibn p-uIg hI pbw wl, mfr main comesn by mnabmn bee_ - _b M emd gIehlof 1 lS

ablW Td.ab Type&ld _ .. d kd Al 4- d lo SW _ .*l. dnlcO 1 mmka peft "P 100

TOMl 100 100 100 IOD W0h n1n kW __ 2 79 79 ee M O= ab- 74 71 so 77 rm.0 _ _0_ _ I n 0 I m00144-c 0 _ _ $so.000 s _ 3 1 I 1 $000001490.no 0 0 0 M SlODA __ _ 3 2 I 0 S100 01424k . 5 S 3 7 12so o _ 19 le 1 20 $=xi0 14MW0 __ 4 4 3 4 "MAW is__15 15 15 IS W0AMw I 1 1 1 SIloA.00 _ . 22 20 27 17 AnIOl_.000x na

ab _ _- 5 5 5 9 c.M es el enWc d =An 4 3 2 5 WVA n.a bih -_._ is 21 24 12

' noi deenI Is fW .o tod p- MNoot ploole a9 -n,,,, he . ,leWtno0 ae BY bnWsl *asWly n.cd _Wd, ofd hbcy. 0m efe - qk* f. M , ndbn d 1h.M,. . n- R_ d e Soa 0 bWe ,lO 00.hmo,,IP.I.a 0l1.v 4 le W W 81.0000o0VSl.OOOd.*- r -i h * La Oen 0.5 Fat NOTK7lh0 d l te "lSnolt 1w I 01 h0 aoy hI to cstmay.

38 102

TOMe31 Hash14, -. Pam of bbl4e N-ub hIpm .6 dmi6hbsft by .1.1I of _ hit 0.4.660dPom&6S, mfdi.. wed6..MnW I1665

_I - , r -" ---- 1m.

______~- ] - 1P-~.

.s ...... 100 le 2 ete I 0 2 2 22 1 1 64 0 0.WX- ___ 0 16 2 e l - I 0 2 2 24 3 7 41 0 FPlp .. _... ----- 100 28 3 0 71 _ 4 1 3 6 41 3 7 7 0 D0. y __ 100 23 2 0 73 _ 5 1 3 5 40 3 7 9 1 P.adlC ____I 11 23 2 1 72 7 1 3 5 39 4 7 7 2 ______1 100 25 1 0 71 _ 36 6 2 2 13 2 7 3 2 0...... 100 26 2 1 70 _ 36 6 2 2 13 2 7 2 2 0 _ ____f 100 12 - 1 U 0 50 5 1 0 2 0 0 I 27

E __*. ___ 100 16 2 0 79 I 1 0 2 2 22 1 0 52 0 D5. X___ __---100 18 2 0 79 I 0 3 3 25 2 3 43 0 F ...... 150 27 2 0 70 _ 4 1 4 5 46 2 3 6 0 D. y _____ 100 25 2 0 72 5 1 3 5 44 2 3 9 I P.lcod _- _ _1 00 25 2 0 72n 1 3 4 44 2 3 6 I 19...... 100 27 1 0 69 39 6 3 3 13 i 2 3 2 069._. 1M0 27 1 0 69 _ 39 6 3 3 13 I 2 2 2 01&.4 ..._ _. 150 14 1 So 51 4 1 0 1 0 _ 1 28

EboW 0. _ 150 15 2 0 82 _ I 0 3 1 28 0 51 I D-UI X ..... _ 150 15 3 862 _ i 0 4 1 29 1 2 43 I F ip. __ 1I 26 3 0 70 _ 4 1 5 5 46 2 3 6 1 0 .01... .. 100 24 2 0 73 _ 5 1 4 4 45 2 3 6 I P.lod u __ _ 150 24 2 1 72 a 1 4 4 44 2 3 7 I I __ 150 28 1 ( 70 _ 43 5 3 1 13 1 2 2 2 0. _... __ 100 26 1 1 70 _ 43 5 3 1 13 1 2 2 3 0. .. . _ 100 13 I 55 49 3 2 0 1 0 I 31

F ...... 150 16 2 e l1 I 0 1 2 1s 1 1 58 0 D0 - .b. .... 150 16 2 862 II 0 2 2 21 4 12 39 0 F~n _. 150 24 3 0 73 _ 4 1 2 6 35 5 11 7 0 OoMW __..__ _ 150 22 3 0 74 _ 5 1 2 6 35 5 II a 1 P.1.d.5...... 150 21 3 1 73 _ 7 1 2 6 33 5 II a 2 W.P...... 15 2.4.a 2 0 71 _ 30 7 2 2 13 4 11 3 2 0.-s 150 24 2 1 71 _ 30 7 2 2 13 4 11 3 2 0040 .. _ 150 11 _ 1 62 _ 51 6 I 0 3 0 0 1 26

'R.6t-ld w15p-M 0 ~ po. d d4. 'b . pi.. h pdd 65 S aL 50515 P.14by 55 planh 50 , twnd54.05. P011 5 p

P.,scy.sP." pR 5110 P p..5. .16 pi. p.. NOTE _s ol =Wf -w of hl 4M- 0p nd 91511nnu _*0 WMh Dahkh 0*_ h,M

39 103

T"e St IHUM'he~u Pmwitt of tu-tUpkUm U8 To U HM i bAWm PMu_ of td _ pVlUINS hI pb_ w~h 0.-W bwwIt by 0SdI&bt, hI phbm WM dui bmfm by VW M. Mmmi_d Of 5*n ed bag 3i" OS hbmwmex' md mdNW trs4 1OU Pahi. PWWWTtd r T905di Mpe .hi.o1wd d _4rd 11 0z_ _ _~S~lf wdoeSd P. Ws"p pV- P- Pe P f

Tt 1oot 1oo too 1oo Tdt mi *90 M 100 10 9Aed to be* CW d~~ te1 54 so a Y_.V _* VOO 9 90 go 91 YdV dd0.kgt 49 51 51 46 ______teo t 4 100S t U014748 .____I f ' a~d $25 22 3 21 22 600 00~~~~200 21 00 670s014999 1 21 o 21 21 .a 2 2 2 2 1701____ 900 ______I I M 2 Ut-Uso______20 22 2 1 xo_ 45 40 46 48 2 4 2 2 $514B a .=~41AOGU S1I _ 2 2 2 2 ,i m 6 8 o..sioo 0 0 0 eooo4m 995 4 5 6 $00o n n n n IJSa d45~w4...... --- 6 6 6 6 U~oolU 1m 9- CM U I

No ymv n_ p 10 10 9 9

W9tM d bd_." bl e o 4 r4 e~~~~~~~7 a 5 * S KN,. fmn l-Mt- mW- Sit pa m- . * O dftW &. E00 ______m _ e5 7 4 * Lw, O O&WOs

iH.d45X" _ _ 34 3U 27 40 MTE_eM d .Md4g. - of h4545d B. M 14 *90

_9 d_~ehe b atseIhid-~ 1 ' hof. dOw b U . -h bhdh In - VMMto kW" & 5*j hd e 4W sasO S. mm K4m ys s~ | I dLaSS mtSWI 0i.. Oh PM6Mi41WpedO 3mdt .

NOTIE.B_ d1h4 d 8 9 I6 mW nt4 "A i.

40 104

T~I 6 Iled huwuic Pms of - 01~n pwh9Iclb hi plwu6 oulhod~j ba.f by f1M Imulnim _ofa,_8-dr,15Pof

T T 0Do -~ l M r. C-l lC16-

TDl. ... M.100 100 100 100 Ub ...... _...... _ to9o 95 93 95014749 =. ._= -...... - 9. 5 4 S750 6 . __ ...20 = 17 11 91 , ..._ _ _ _._.._ 39___37 42 33 81,00141459- -2 61.300 3 3 1 ___,______...... 3 3 3 3 G-- th.b, 500 2 3 2 1 No 195sm ._.o - 4 4 5 4

NOTE. B 0411101 0199 9d919,9 him my 09 0 to.

T4 37. 14A11 Mwe Puau of huUnPmlpos hi plm with 11woc iwuli bmfih mia Vld 1ag fmm, 1095 by 061001l 9.19659

cfl c c c Ac WM" To _ ...... 0 1_ 100 100 100 100 W0110009.g. W ...... 97 93 W g9 07 96 96 CO-ad th... 90 _ ..9 - _ . 5 4._ 420 4 42 6 Slw t. *W.-M. wft 57 Uf 010w.dt , 911 91 55 93 59 0 - 34 26 31 26 93 50 90 U. odwo. 34 27 36 26 ...... 2 326 71 25 71 29 72 3 8 72 hi914d l50C n...... _ 3 54 2 52 2 54 3 55 091ol-p08191001. _- 12 52 14 so 14 ON, cd__ .5on.8 51 10 ff 8 17 6 16 15 7 18 Nolaa...... _ _... _ 1 3 1 2 I 3 2 4

' i Thc1b t 99 lo0n 6w rulllm bc _ 11 p1 01 n 6hg ,0 0 . _ Pi- hs I_ 1 br -1 cu 1 r4. 4f04 1_ bUp

41 105

Table L. Hai hMM Pact othill4kne "mm;s Table 39. Heitl T414 Poem of h 04no ipbmwfth ple bostifit by exant ad N msl by covage for seIecte spa" bnft ms md bogs wid bg firs, IO nhins 185_

i008 T~dd 1.- AXpzi4 dk. Ted. U. pg. I BE4M 11N1 A, &- diWd Nol C"p to. as - - PeI___ P0Nb _ _t P-0p Tod 100 tat 125 100 Total 100 100 100 100 223 10 Cod by ':"aO d the I 224 SMd -.W bq*l __ 64 82 at 4 E.aoat.d ed-sp- - S5 Saoeo - - 50 se 52 48 as 70 67 Ibess __ 50 72 Dq -n tv4 _ 81 a3 17 15 13 21 8 Hp4l c 23 24 2n 92 13 17 00 ona __ 13 _ .- W oaeby Wof tbled.psl ' Ed- 1. kpsi V. h.a 0sf ady.ney ds bemR ___ .le 14 14 .t

NOITE Ba- d nb - 01 11nrmay nd- weew ' Th. b1. Ma. V-aV.b - d afttW ,, d " * I- V- we;aT4b ' Ph. Aadt as a **a.M atos No h-0 seo*0 - pa-s

Table 40. Heali heWuowr Pwyca of Iimh pYUdpmtt by _V e WIh d Cost COntabet festooss, medium and bogs fbil 188M pot- abe T.cts. Cot onlakae lest,. d4dtnp C~~m Otwr..d1.0- l-dela W.op.-

tWid P-f

Tt .l. _ ...... 100 100 100 100 COod by at Ws as of a, bled W ..t thbsotl '..est 83 80 64 G1 1m1. to _k ..d -. Naslop ...... __. 24 28 28 19 liofo ktatu. . 0,- mod 4&. hr ,q - _ 25 28 27 22 .1hIor sogiosl. -_ 39 40 40 38 HWl- Psayt ItNo 1 dl g__I -. -.------_ _ 3 4 3 3 No .o led k- 5_ le d4f to .... a 10 8 8 Spssl dadeth. fo sd.lW_- 9 I 10 I I l1Who"Atll l9- - 48 48 47 44 NOdo.oao by q.1 d ma 1l1d s1o.r_-1 fe4 _._. 37 35 39 38

' Th. W I. le_ tma. the .1d- the kaba l- il s os_y wOa&. p hti.pla swt _. ms le st,

42 106

Ta.b 41. Health Insirc8: Percent of thl-lie parterte, In cetbutcry plane by type and amout of employe coetrobution, medium end lare finns, 198

Al pe PlofeehiJ end Td end defoeil TypeeM of oontirl_ Stog Femly 5inp Fannb Sthl Fam* Sve o o q os ooee F-* o-o--P oe_ -rap eoo ..ePe ToW lot lot t_0 100 lot 100 100 100 Fl rn o nt ...... 99 ns 87 L othue#m 90 90 91 89 91 .00 ...... 19 3 17 3 95.004399...... 14 3 24 3 _ .... 24 9 22 9 18 91O00-49 .t.. le 0 32 1I 015'00-01999 a '8 a 22 a a ...... 9 9 a 9 10 S302004-3299 I11 9 9 7 3...1 13 13 10 14 S30.00-9.290 ...... 3 12 7 13 10 4 10 4 11 540.00S499 ...... _ 1 11 C I S50.00-59.99 10 2 12 1 11 ...... 7 _ 2 1000.00 g _- 4 -...... 76 7000-r7999 ...... 47e) Aw 4 - 3 b9V99...... - 2 - 090.00-99999rIb...... -y2 1 - 2 ( 4 2 - 2 -

0n no dnnt ...... e 4 9 9 7 7 8

Ir If n mnwof Contbution .nnA by oeier o onrien er. Comtdn for ld hL ple onerofbe delenited of tlnely U. rto 1 n onn nOh &ep and - child - usd. F a 90,,1 patntrg of epne * Adn..nnnoe by ophine e d uder a oedl plen or bSon the neploy onottns of nPlnye-epnerd inlen jnt. at-i enon 4 Nohi.end loel Loset 01005poront cone.g NOTE. 1ense of roredon er of erduldue nerern not eqoh * A orov rate eel onobibMol,n onoerig moreCm one b- totslie, h dicetn 00 emeloy hi Pi soyn StUrm for n .he.M in-oroend e -oend 41 ness

Table 4t Health Insnrnce: Percent of tell-fire pearticpants by length-ofrnlce requlmnoerntefor partlilpatlon, meedlin and large firns, 1999

Al009a Tease- Pefine,n p0099 nd F.r -~l, pearb.b FPan P nh, penh Tol ...... 100 100 100 100 With -enmii rq- ...... 54 39 45 es I`nMt ...... 19 15 13 19 2 mont .. . 9...8 4 S 1 3."' h ...... 19 445...... o 12 19 22 ..... 4 2 1 6 S nonth...... 7 5 7 a9 ...... ) ) ) Oneoyr ...... 1...... 1 ) Ovr I r ...... - - C. WOW- e..e rirn...... 45 s0 53 32 Sam rqurmno not dtMabt ...... 1 1 2 1

Leg, t ofhflie emnploypemwe be on e bb beforeW ery em G00 by plen lda 1 or aWt perelly eployer hrOed. Thl in r- qou Y 0 edeno tie leg bobeeo -npletW.onof V. etuirent end ron dx1 eln of prpelor if V.e lg ne 1 -fth Orn dor, ma Inclded in Ihe . rr rm nt Mhoon ego retireelea Loon _n 0.5 poroenL

NOTE: not of rcldntrg, 9n of indhk Rab lr"ot y e In- tle Dsth indlcte n0 anopyees IntIh cAh0ry.

43 107

T 43. Health kmn. Pmlt Of 1.B0-tm P6.6pt. 1byfwllb mokibm for0 type of 07v6a69 mecn Fnid6,g@°.l 11k.D 185cl D U-1 Ift* Be' D, W am.8 - 06' 660. Al61187.14 T.0.6 6111 dl,1. TCaI ____ 100 1001 0 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 P_.61.d -8o - - 6 70 48 87 76 Bk. C--B6. 71. 62 64 43 6 7 7 7 21 15 I4 12 6 20 CNo .1 -______16 12 1 1 4 22 2 34 36 15 19 10 35 k14141l.61p6 825 31 35 20D 3 32 25 31 20 32 35 a1 23 13 30 26 H.617 M0..m. 15 21 10 30 32 7 ~O~40.*6 7 7 (1 1 10 10 IS 00-1 ------I' 1 - - - I Nc~t ko~d _ 2 1 3 2 2 2 1 3 3 NAt610.1d .w - 34 b 2 1 24 36 36 57 II 24

Pl1.f..o1* 6r 6 016&6h,n Tow IDD~10 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 10 =-id~d-- W 61 65 40 sO Bk. 7E 71 75 54 5s 73 Cra.4366,Sleid . 20 11 II I11 C_11.161oa6C_ .... I.a16 4 23 19 17 13 7 20 1O 37 38 21 24 15 32 6111p610..l66.01 6. 25 36 6 32 10 36 35 26 30 215 O61I..16o~~~~d 15 38 29 22 0 39 31 21 25 16a 38 27 cwg§. ft...... 10 la 10 (' 5 5 5 0Ow1 ----- .. - - - 1) 1 - 2 - - - - Coll6.t* d ...... 1 2 1 3 2 I 2 I 2 2 N.4060 611d -006.6...... 39 35 00 I11 21 26 302 40 15 27 6 A 61n611 61belt606156-d-f 86 1 b6I160 61It8011 160d6868.0 6t1Well 6611160y61606 by -ploy.1 686011011.W 6. P106606-0W676.61.d11666011016-6or Und7. It- 16 6*4d16Ws 660. 01.16d4,666 7o6,6,6716 -dS- ft6)0Ad-

110., kM1 -66 -h01.&. 611 3) 6.h6 6066.*4 1121600 b6160 .061661 &00o116.ly066016 6861 66ski-, F06 666017068gy01of1681. p616n617160611 "l1160 190156Al017.6666, 66110061 HMO. 66650760 1066 Ca6.UM 6168 t06660115e66.l.h1 Yea, (d01.I11. 81666116660066866611617611,16 f6111

6b61000.1 6.06.6666.1.06661.1-Tb..M 6,601106,0 07bh111610011. 660161by d6800.611.. 166160 611 6170 10 6006 0*6,066 p1o16o. 0161666.61 601 y101466e0.0.661010101 *161011. 661,6016 ..1 706606 by 066161661,. 016601- NOTE: 6.01-. 661"666.Y6Y.56D011106 f 16061l46of61g 661d116ft-710167061 166666616001= = .M66160061 o.61.0.1 061101806. .10ly60In0th0616001Y 601611116616.t 6111to 1606 11 11.0666166y1

/ 108

Tabe 4 Ufe htau Percent of hm-o parllXcn by method of detemtnn amoun of balk U ehoance, _nd frequency ot related coverae medic and larg firm, 19#5

annul Todoti AnPa- id aWd Pm- Ile mA l p,"f dc. U.pu

-0d0 P-

Tob9...... 100 100 100 10D B TWcOf. ht ...... 100 100 100 IOD Be d cn anr ...... 88 84 81 48 MI ...... 53 73 71 33 GOdte d.d ...... 13 12 10 15 FIMta o.ut ...... 31 12 15 S0 Flarat tbmdonoorctco.. 3 3 3 2 O 0 , ...... OOf% i C) 01 C) Witheclided -- p durit.W andtppn t bd ...... 98 97 98 94 WM mddul dM and drnatent v rap ... 73 70 85 7t Wnolh0nootn bonoft' ..... 13 ...12 ..11 14. Wft, depeden cana.sa 21 21 20 20

* A t. p pt ' d l* eotl deaft d dn nn ' Indopo p intht n c aa a of _a.p pb.

lndon pInto i pian w Woa bod on p a anjd i 3ttn olfte py's deot. *L 0.5 pen ' Cottioto of 1ff t, cty asot of t.g th U. s r dpodan n&o fre pacid po.n Ott.r dt of

NOTE:Bt 0 o - f &dnu.ool hioy 1oqoalt lo- l.ai

45 109

T 4. U h P f 9h hi pm nWuioaFmn~w Oo'L, by anlim of 9mbheM Od w npvnh wn nndwg fmn 1

Tob _ _ __ 650.00016.9.0.9 S[6249.96| ___0-|sooo

96 p

f.id __ 100o 4a 52 0 1 1 17 4~ -_a- t 03 10 45 24 I0 9 3 0 °2 0) 1.01. ______- e 24 1 m 16 17 m I 5 I 21A______.._____ 2 M2 2 m 0 2 0 0 3-2 6 °2 e aozsi. __._-I _.___.___-- __- 31 0 M2

L"..=r~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.

100 40 s51 1 3 e0 I 19 1 17 Pl d_ z _ 3.4....._____Td4 0 2 40 21 16 3 011 9_fn1o _, -8 2 to - -t -2 0m 4 32 19 20 M 2 2.04.- 0 0 2 0 0 3 1-o 3 ._ I0 M2 t.I 4 0 ^2 mI 3144S-o~ ___9m V ______.. 100 1 40 I 62 4 7 .I 19 I 15 ZO._-. ...__. .____

3 147 2 24 2 10 1 °2 1.1.9. I2 I 3 0 ¢22 331 2 e I 0 0.3 0 10. _ _ _ _s _o _ __1 C2 0II 7 0 I5 0I 0I 31D 01 SO. _obt. . 0 0 ^2

46 110

Taw 45 A5 pIow ofm4 g in - M mdil_44m11 Ito' b _ df b omC_m dAm_ mg p gel0 m_ mud 1g lb.. 1OU-COMeW

hipl 51 O2 8uO~W. ,0 FW..b Tow _lA1 600c ft0~~~~~~W)Ft

T.W 1to 47 53 7 7 15 21 3

_4Ilm 1 0 2 2 6 _ _ lO ______Is 21 22 s 3 10 3 6 1.1-14 6 6 6 - - 6 - 6 165 1______12 2 1 - I 6 e 6 1.9 _ 2 - 2 1 _ I _ _ Z.0 1______27 13 14 I 1 4 7 2.05.5 1 2 -1 m I -- 2

2.0 1 I 6 _- _ _ _ ~ 2 6 1 _ 2 6 1 -2

' W..dh ~ ih W- VAd .- t"O .. _ ~ oh l15 m dsd iW a hiM@ * N _ d TE Id d_ln IS 1s I 41 - -h . . . 3 . * LamOthfipW 5.00.0g k w01flh. W ib A i5 V c m31514001 . U 1. N Dl uhodWB b n r I4I 5 1 .W) 5. 3 W 5 5 . ' o W

Tom 40 Lo*'iU~e Purcm of 4d.ffs euU U In Vl W f4dl kmm'hr bby 1mtdof bam -mam -KU WMubaos OM 1540

O.Wu T*Chr4. AlP W @4dNW R.& 0- P.W. *NW"

TOWl _ |______100 100 1W 100 L i _If0t, 1 2 2 1 UsODee.0 I2 10 se 13 :014.OU S2 3 32 0l0omoIS 0 2 0 1 w eM4m 6 7 2 6 e25A0MMM 3 3 4 3 $SUMdO _ 4 I 1

hiXOW c_-_S hi pO te N. n- - hU 1.* tWd am w_ IOTE. 8 .. dsm of@4 WW 11 " n.oW

47 ill

TOWe 47. Ith himzc Puoent ottbi pmfc~wft by lelgF*Wrae roq*eens. for poru-copet% wd I"fl,, 195

U.bw T.& I U.i- *- al 50df vem. PU.45.0 PC-~ P84t

Tda...... _|_ _ tO0100 100 100 100 Wlh WA. __-we 53 42 49 82 s _ _ ___ .. 17 1t 13 20 2 wraf _ 7 3n00i. 3 4 10 ______I' 14 21 It a . 7111-1006 a__ a t o2 M M Iyw7W 1 2 2 0-1 M~~ I m6 1 Wlth m ._t _ 46 se 51 30

5* n_.y.4 114 S.M.14. - 6 6 6 60 'dO.d.kvbbb ~bb -WbQy . Pa,1 Thtie,. 0.114 -eIwM r41

totle Deehhd me _h

Table 4LUN w of h p eh bhascWe ha P by ot en Ine Coverals meWMe ad6. ms, 1NS __ _ 14.5 Tedo4. E55d of Al P.. WdaIlS P 5 1 1 4 1 1 4 V&#.5a4.- .. P-l. pards P"0 Tob l - 0 100 too 100 0.*1e-a- 620 84 6s 50 com~w Me 80 82 es 57 c~dk.-i. km4 4 4 3 iblRI o __ 30 26 31 30 P~wd mewe_ vl *A ,, _26 20 20 23

h_ em51.5.g_| n... 2 2 I 2 k.-e _ *eed kh_* 3W W 34 41

PI..3Pd. W0.e I. Aee bi of.A sVf ml , L E true, 5.5 P.d NOTE6... a- .. Wt .1 at kxab.5 ap.. nWy10 e"A W

48 112

Chapter 5. Defined Benefit Pension Plans

Among employees within the scope of the survey, by a retirees Social Security payments. (See neat defined benefit pension plans re the predominant type section.) of retirement plan sponsored by employers These pans Most plans that did not use a percent-of-earnings include a formula for calculating retirement benefits and benefit formula specified a dollar amount to be paid for obligate the employer to provide the benefits so deter- each year of service, such as $15a month per year of mined. In 1985, four-fifths of the employees were cov- service, yielding a pension of $450 after 30 years. Dol- ered by defined benefit pension plans-a proportion that lar-amount formulas-applied to 29 percent of pension has held relatively steady since 1980. (Other sources of plan participants. While the dollar amount in these for- retirement income, such as savings plans, will be dis- mulas sometimes varied with an employee's earnings or cussed in chapter 6.) service, the predominant method was to multiply a uniform dollar amount by years of service. Benefit Jfrmsda- Uniform (tables 49-53). Earnings-based for- amounts credited per year averaged mulas applied $14.83 a month. to seven-tenths of the employees covered The basis of payment differed sharply by defined benefit pension plans by employee Plans including these group. While a large majority of white-collar partici- formulas pay a percent of the employee's annual earm- pants were provided earngs4based pensions, dol ings per year of service. Variations are common in the lar-amount formulas applied to half of the blue-collar approach to calculating annual earnings and the rate participants. paid per year of service. For 82 percent of the partici- Thirty-six percent of all participants were pants in pension with earnigs-based formulas, pensions were based pans providing benefits from either primary on earnings in the or alter- final years of employment (terminal native formulas, whichever was greater. earnings formula); for the remainder, Alternative an average of ca- formulas were often included to provide at least a reer earnings was used. Terminal earnings mini- were defined mum level of benefits for persons with short service as the average or over a 5-year period for 84 percent of low earnings. For enample, a plan may have a primary the participants with terminal earnungs formulas. Such formula of 1.23 percent of career average earnings formulas usually designated the 5 consecutive times years years of service, and an alternative formula of S15 a with the highest earnings out of the last 10 years before mouth for each year of service. In this case, retirement. the alternative formula would provide a higher benefit for per- A majority of participants with earnings-based for- sons with career average annual earnings less than mulas-half of those with terminal earnings and over S14,400. two-thirds with career earnings formulas-were in plans having benefit rates per year of service that varied ac- Pnimte benefits and Social Secnurty payments (table cording to service, earnings, or age. Career earnings 54). Employers providing private retirement plans formulas typically applied one rate to annual earnings also share the cost of Social Security coverage equally below a specified amount, and a higher rate above that with their employees Because many plan sponsors feel amount. For example, a plan will credit an employee that private pension and Social Security benefits should with I percent of earnings up to the first S12000 in not be duplicative, formulas for calculating private pen- each year of service pls 1.5 percent of the excess earn- mmonoften contain an offset provision requiring part of ings. The annual pension payment is the sum of these the Social Security pension to be subtracted from the credits. The balance of formulas applied a uniform rate annuity. Other plans have "excess" formulas that apply to all earnings. These uniform rates averaged 1.62 per- lower pension benefit rates to an employee's earnings cent per year of service in terminal earnings formulas below a specified level (which is either the Social Se- and 1.55 percent in career earnings formulas. Thus, ter- mial earnings formulas not only provide a higher earn- "As HeaPIsYsw tsored 30 ye with a a-wns pay ire ings base than career formulas,' but the percentage rates eeh yea asd enedl sM i. the tai yrear t oervicewosd also are on average higher. However benefits under a havecar avera earii of S13.451a yea,wile the afslS-year avea wid behr22730. The dueo bet- te E Ad terminal earnings formula were more likly to be offset fial avenes 1- withshurte, esta o er

49 113

cutity taxable wage base-usually the career aver- workers who reached age 65 in 1985, however, the So- age-or a dollar amount equal to a past taxable wage cial Security benefit was base). the same or workers with similar final earnings who had 25 years or more Sixty-one percent under of all participants were in plans Social Security.) where benefit formulas were "integrated" with Social Chart 4 displays replacement rates based on 30 years Security. Terminal earnings formulas of integrated plans of service for each of the earnings assumptions. Except tended to adopt the offset approach, while career earn- for the lowest earnings assumption (S15,000), the pri- ings formulas tended to incorporate the excess approach. vate pension plan replaced on average about 27 percent Dollar amount formulas were rarely coordinated with of the final year's earnings; the Social rate for $15,000 was Security; blue-collar employees, therefore, were about 31 percent less likely to have integrated benefits." When combined with primary Social Security payments available at age 65, however, replacement Maximum benefitprovsions (table 55). The Employee rates differed substantially as earnings increased-ranging Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA) places ceil- from nearly three-fourths at the lowest assumed ings on the size of annual pension benefits from defined level to just under one-half at the highest earnings level benefit plans. This restriction largely affects only highly computed. Except for the two highest assumed levels compensated employees. Many plans, however, have of final earnings ($35,000 and $40,000), the provisions that restrict benefit levels for all participants primary Social Security benefit was For example, one-third of larger than the average private participants were in plans pension. that limited the number of years of service included in Although private pension replacement rates benefit computation; maximums of 30 or 35 years were for white-collar employees increased slightly at higher earn- most common. For 8 percent of the participants, annual ings levels, rates for blue-collar workers dropped pensions (usually including Social Security payments) by almost a third. Table 49 provides could not exceed a specified percent an explanation: Half of average annual of all production career or terminal earnings. workers have dollar amount formulas, paying workes with the same years of service the same benefit, regardless of earnings Replacement rates (table 56). A commonly used indi- history. The result is a steady decrease in the cator of pension adequacy is the portion of a retiree's replacement rat as final earnings increase. final year's earnings that is "replaced" by the retirement Average replacement rates for earnings-based formulas, on the other benefit To calculate replacement rates under 1985 pen- hand, increase slightly with higher final earnings. sion plans, the maximum private benefit under each sur- While average replacement veyed plan, not reduced for early retirement or rates show a consistent relationship between pensions and service, joint-and-survivor annuity, was determined under sev- earnings, and type of formula, the eral aasumed combinations of final annual earnings and range of pensions payable is quite broad. Chart years of service. These benefit levels were then ex- 5 shows that calculated monthly pensions for employees retiring pressed as percents of earnings in the last year of em- with 20 or 30 years' service and final earnings ployment. The calculations assume employees retired of S30,000 varied from less than $200 to $1,000 on January 1, 1985, and final'earnings are for 1984." or higher." Table 56 presents average replacement rates result- Normal retirement (table 57). Although ing from defined benefit pension plans alone and in full Social Se- curity benefits are not available combination with primary Social Security benefits (that before age 65, most private pension plan participants were is, excluding benefits for spouse and other dependents). ' not required to work to that age for full private pensions For private pension formulas that are integrated with (normal retirement). Thirty-three percent were covered Social Security and for computation of Social Security by plans that specified age 65 as the benefits, the worker is assumed to have retired at age earliest age for normal re- irement, down from 45 percent in 1980. 65 and paid into Social Security for 40 years. (For While employees in plans speciying age 65 usually did not have to satisfy a minimum service requirement, "F.o *atpe _- nanly plans permit- or (o-ntts withab Sontyl ting normal retirement tototin batoii ree- Donld Bel -nd Diane at earlier ages typically had Hill, -How length-of-service S6du Saity PNytnou Afft ftiv-.t fPo," Mgoauh Lao requirements. Ten to fifteen years' Rawe, May 1954,pp. 15s-2. service were required for half of the 38 percent of par- 'E-ninp htoi, n ny for applytag tdi penion fonnbsn, ticipants who could first retire at ages 60 through 64; 0 oonslotd ftoooo fina ringslevel b.m.d on dat provided 20 or 30 years were typically needed by the So.ial Swsity Adonniati for retirement at ages 55 through 59 (affecting 6 percent "The Socid Se-mity qpn brst, bhib in 50 peroest of tie of participants). ptbnay baefit a paid in additon to tbe pritary bedt while bob "F-.ora nas onsple d oft _dnans patns - h n, Doald (lnk the ptn a igible fo a lbrger ptinMry 0. beaelt). ai, TodWay. Fd Pfin Hoa Mnh Do They Parr Mntbl LCar Ret-, Dumbe, 1955, pp. 19-25.

50 114

Chart 4. Replacement rates under pension plans including and excluding Social Security payments: Average benefits based on 30 years of service, medium and large firms, 1985 Average replacement rote (percent) 100 I

115.000 S20.000 S25.000 S30.000 S35.000 S40.000

Worker's finul year s earnings

Another 10 percent of participants could qualify when before normal retirement age and receive an immedi- the sum of age plus service reached a specific amount, ate, reduced pension. In some cases, employer approval such as 85. A minimum age of 55 was generally in- was required for such early retirement benefits. cluded for meeting these requirements. Minimum The amount of an early retirement pension is lower lengths of service were less common. for two reasons: First, fewer years of service are ap- Fourteen percent of all participants were covered by plied to the benefit formula because an employee has plans permitting normal retirement at any age with 30 not worked until normal retirement age. Second, be- years of service; the major concentration (19 percent) cause benefits begin at an earlier age, the retiree is ex- was among production workers. Plans which featured pected to receive plan payments over a longer period such a provision almost always offered other normal of time. (fac- retirement opportunities at specified ages with lower The normal benefit is reduced by a percentage service requirements. (If a plan had alternative age and tor) for each year between the actual and normal re- service requirements, the earliest age and associated tirement ages. If a plan's normal retirement age is 62, service were tabulated for this survey; if one alterna- for example, and the reduction factor is 6 percent, a tive did not specify an age, it was the requirement that person retiring at age 59 would receive 82 percent of minus 3 years was tabulated.) the normal formula amount (100 percent times 6 percent). It should be recognized, however, that Earl retirement (tables 5 and 59). Virtually all of the in addition to the 18-percent reduction for early retire- employees participating in a pension plan could retire ment, the annuity in this example would be based on

51 115

Chart 5 Monthiy benefits under private defined benefit pension plans: Distribution of participants assuming earnings of $30,000 In the final year of work, medium and large firms, 198i Percent ot participontc 50 -

* 20 years ot service U 30 years ot service 40-

30 -

20 -

0- Less than S200- S400- S600- 1800- 11.000 and 1200 S399 S599 1799 S999 Creater

Monthly peasion benetit

fewer years of service and possibly lower earnings than permitting early retirement at age 55; generally, 10 to at age 62. 15 years of service were required. Twelve percent of The reduction factor may be uniform or may vary all participants could retire earlier than age 55 if serv- by age or service. Reduction factors that differed for ice requirements were satisfied. Ten percent of the par- each year of early retirement, based on the employee's ticipants in plans with early retirement could qualify life expectancy at that age (actuarial reductions) were when the sum of age plus service reached a specific used in plans covering one-eighth of participants with amount. Such plans usually included minimum service early retirement opportunities. Other methods of reduc- requirements ranging from I to 25 years; age require- tion, however, often approximate an actuarial reduc- ments of 50, 55, or 56 were sometimes specified. tion. For example, for over a third of the participants, The early retirement pension for 14 percent of par- the reduction factor differed for age brackets of several ticipants was supplemented by additional monthly pay- years instead of changing each year. Just under one- ments if employees retired after meeting a specified age half of the participants had uniform reduction factors, or length-of-service requirement higher than the mini- most commonly 6 percent for each year of early retire- mum needed to retire. Plan sponsors include these spe- ment. A few plans applied reduction factors that vary cial early retirement benefits either to induce older by length of service. workers to retire or as a reward for long service. Sup- Two-thirds all of participants were covered by plans plemental benefits from the private pension help to fill

52 116

a minimal service the gap during the period between retirement and the LTD plan, which usually had start of Social Security payments. Generally, supple- requirement mental payments end when Social Security payments Postponed retirement (table 61). Employees who con- begin (either reduced payments at age 62 or full bene- tinue on the job after age 65 rarely receive private pen- fits at age 65), and the reduced pension is then payable sions before retirement. Moreover, postponed retire- for life. (At least half of the retirement pension for most fully reflected in the size of pension bene- employees in this study will be Social Security payment is rarely service after age 65 and ad- ments-see section on replacement rates.) Other em- fits by both crediting the justing pensions upward for the shorter retirement pe- ployers elect to offer similar incentives outside of for- slightly less than one-half of the par- mal plan provisions to employees who retire within a riod. Nevertheless, were in plans that made some allowance for specified time period." ticipants postponed retirement. Thirty-nine percent of all participants were in plans Disability retirement (table 60). A career-ending dis- with benefit formulas that included credit for service ability may entitle an employee to a pension before the after age 65; 20 percent were subject to limits on the normal retirement age. If the disability satisfies the plan's number of credited years (frequently, only years up to definition of total disability, pension benefits often be- age 68 or 70). A number of plans with earnings-based gin immediately. When an employer provides other benefit formulas recognized earnings levels after age sources of disability income, such as long-term disabil- 65, even when service was not credited for these years. ity insurance, the disability retirement benefit might be Production workers were more likely than white-col- deferred until the other forms of income have ceased. lar employees to receive full credit for service after age Eighty-five percent of pension plan participants were 65. Collectively-bargained multiemployer plans, ac- covered by disability retirement provisions in 1985. counting for 8 percent of blue-collar participants, fre- Each year since first tabulated in 1980, employees in quently provide for employer contributions to the pen- plans with immediate disability retirement have out- sion fund for covered employees regardless of age. numbered those in plans with benefits deferred to nor- In contrast to early retirees, who typically receive mal or early retirement age. The latter, however, in- reduced pensions over an extended time period, late re- creased by 10 percentage points over the period to 40 tirees seldom receive pensions that are increased to percent of the pension participants in 1985. compensate for the shorter time they will draw bene- Seventy-nine percent of the production workers with fits. Only 8 percent of the participants were in plans disability retirement coverage were iu plans with im- that actuarially adjust the size of pensions or increase mediate benefits. White-collar workers with disability the payment by a specified percentage for each addi- benefits in their pension plans were more likely to be tional year of work beyond the normal retirement age. in plans with deferred benefits. Workers with deferred benefits were usually given long-term disability insur- Postretirementfpensionincreases (table 62). Inflation can ance (LTD) benefits which typically provided 50 or 60 severely erode the purchasing power of a fixed pension percent of earnings at the time of disability; this was throughout a worker's retirement years. Forty-three more than that generally provided by pension plans percent of pension plan participants were in plans which with immediate disability retirement.' Furthermore, increased pensions for current retirees at least once dur- most deferred retirement benefits were greater than im- ing the 1980-84 period. Most of these increases were mediate pensions, primarily because the time during discretionary, or ad hoc, rather than automatic adjust- which LTD benefits were paid was typically added to ments. The amounts of ad hoc increases were not di- an employee's length of service for computation of pen- recDly linked to a cost-of-living index. Instead, retirees' don benefits. (See Chapter 3 for details of LTD bene- current pensions were usually increased by either a per- fit plans.) centage varying by the length of retirement, or a dol- Requirements for disability retirement were usually lar amount per year of service. The latter type of in- based on specified years of service such as 10 years or crease more often affected the pensions of production more. Sixteen percent of the participants, however, had workers, and frequently resulted from collective bar- no age or service requirement for disability retirement, gaining agreement provisions. and 20 percent had to meet the qualifications for the Since the survey reports only the number of current employees covered by pension plans and not the num- 'David H. Graivit- A Frdeak W. Rhnk."pe=8 the Eary ber of retirees, it cannot specify the proportion of an- Retet 'Window,' adt, Mrch/ApJ 1t93, pp. 53-57. nuitants actually receiving postretirement pension in- aF..r- opkft di-d anrfd.shty Ias est. - Donn creases. A rough measure of the incidence of postretire- Refibr Erypluy in Dnel d WiAt= Wi-stm- 'Ou iiy ment increases among pensioners can be derived by as- uM Ltbc Red, Angn t95Z pp. P&na Pena Pt,"imn of retirees is proportionate to 36sa- sminig that the number

53 117

the number of active plan participan ts. Thus, since 41 separation, workers have a vested right in all or a sig- percent of the pension plan participants were in plans nificant portion of their accrued pension benefits and granting ad hoc increases, it can be assumed that about may begin receiving benefits years later. Although all two-fifths of the retirees received peinsion increases. pension participants are entitled to vested benefits un- The same approach was used to estinate the size of der ERISA, some variations exist as to when this oc- pension increases. For each plan granting an ad hoc in- curs Most pension plans require 10 years of service be- crease during the 1980-84 period, the aLmountofincrease fore benefits are guaranteed. While over two-thirds of was computed using three retiremet nt periods (5, 10, the participants were covered by the 10-year rule re- and 15 years) and two monthly pensi on amounts (S250 gardless of age, one-sixth were affected by the plan and S750) in effect on December 311 1979. These in- sponsores right to exclude years of service before a creases were then averaged, using as weights the num- specified age in determining vesting eligibility.a ber of active workers participating *to provide sur- Unreduced vested pension payments begin at a plan's veywide estimates for each example. As shown in the normal retirement age, based on the benefit formula in tabulation below, the length of retirensent was a signifi- effect when an employee left the plan. Also, terminated cant factor in determining the size cof pension adjust- and vested participants can receive a reduced pension ments, with larger increases paid ttt persons retired under a plan's early retirement provision if the partici- longest Also, where maximum incr,eases were sped- pant had snafied the corresponding service require- fied, retirees with higher original pensions had lower ment when leaving the plan. percentage increaes For terminated and vested employees who wish to receive a pension beginning at the early retirement age, MoAth& penn en Yea ofln the benefit must be at least the actuarial equivalent of D ter 3). 1979 5 10 15 what would have been received starting at age 65. Al- DM: though under ERISA the reduction factor used in de- Avereae pessonn eabter 31 ..... S286 S306 5322 termining the pension for a terminated employee can Pernt daa D bemner1.1979-4 ..... 14 29 be more severe than for early retirement, the same fac- a750: tor was used in plans covering 77 percent of the par- Av~ e~drr .o. De-abe 31,1984 ...... S28 3929S tidipants with early retirement provisions.

Perredirement surrivrbenefits (table 64) ERISA also The BLS Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage requires the availability of a form of pension in which Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) rose 41 percent at least 50 percent of the retiree's payments continue over the 5-year period studied." For retirees in plans to the spouse after the retires's death. When this type with ad hoc adjustments, and with monthly pensions of pension-called a joint-and-survivor annuity-is and years of retirement shown above, average adjust- paid, the employee will receive a lower benefit during ments were two-thirds or less of the price rise. retirement since payments are likely to be made over a Only about 4 percent of all participants were in plans longer period of time. When the retiree dies, the spouse that provided for automatic increases in pension bene- will receive part or all of the retiree's monthly pension fits to compensate for increases in the cost of living. In benefits.' most instances, the cost-of-living-adjustment formulas provided for benefit adjustments proportional to in- creams in the BLS Consumer Price Index. Neverthe- '7be Rtitnet Eqaity Ac at 1954. Sa ather p bvii, aneaded IRSA by t.weeina less, ceilings on individual increases limited periodic from 25 to 21 the ge afte- wbicb -- piayets aaa enroB worka in dined befetI and dnead rantb- adjustments to 3 percent or less for most of the cov- oni pfa, sad aweeiag ftro 22 tD 18 the age aferftdcb employ- ered workers. Nearly anl of the affected participants ea taunrs vntg rdni. tI ddit.Nt, the at _i tha the were in plans calling for annual adjustments. Lifetime pwse of der vestel etployee be enitled ta ariver he- ceilings on increases were uncommon. ats rerdls t ageat deah Fer amoatpla, pvn of the at were etee fer pla ye be _ngaftr Dtbe, 31, 19U4. Sic dlline- Vrsing (ruble 63). Even when an employee leaves an fo, conptiane wean pead thbtght 1955, p- ione ERISA al were etl in fecteta the ate etlmahat employer without qualifying for either a normal, early, -e ed. (CeIvay baaed pla nsttanply b y JanrY or disability retirement benefit, a pension may ultimately 1,1987.) be paid. If certain conditions are tsfied at the time of D JUSAI tha tbe aiot-ad v avnge betec ftr tm ten em, a tht waiver tofthe apn tnu t be eqaed iwnt-g.&The R entt Eqlay At (ee fore. 22) ftrthre d "Th rate t e -e de by diviie g the aas9a aver- tern tha e e.veana c n he w ived anly ff both hobsDd ad ve CPI-W fbe 19u4 by nhe a ava CPI-W far 1979. For a w snpfe the written qt. Pr. a re naapiete deai.n of ar- dion of pseiment n e Dwelo 0. Sai, vivor beft, tee-fad Bel lai Any rahan, Suin Sposft 'a -end t- nder fea Penadan PRa% MAfen L. Beft in fPivte Pein t," Moduy Lhb Rer. AfrD 1984, e Rkw, Steptbr 19s4. pp 3-s. pp, 23-31.

54 118

Joint-and-survivor annuities are based on an actuarial their plan has risen from S to 10 percent Of the em- or arithmetic reduction of the employee's pension. One- ployees who had to pay part of the cost, virtually all fifth of the participants were in plans offering only a paid a percent of earnings. The majority of participants joint-and-survivor option that provides a surviving in contributory plans paid one rate (usually 2 to 4 per- spouse 50 percent of the retiree's adjusted pension. cent) on earnings above a specified level, and a lower Nearly two-thirds of participants had a choice of two rate (or frequently zero) below that earnings level. The or more alternative percentages (frequently 50, 67, and annual earnings level at which this break occurred 100 percent) to be continued to the spouse, with cor- ranged from 53,000 to $39,680D,the Social Security tax- responding reductions in their annuities able wage base in effect during 1985. Plans with varying employee contributions usually coordinate private Preredtrement survivorbenefits (table 65). Nearly all par- benefits with Social Security payments; as discussed ticipants were in plans providing for survivor payments earlier, pension benefit rates used in these plans are in case the employee died before retirement. Pensions higher on earnings above the Social Security taxable usually had to be vested before any death benefits were wage base. One sixth of the participants in contributory payable.' For over seven-tenths of the participants, a plans paid a flat rate-none paid more than 3 percent. surviving spouse would receive an annuity equivalent to the amount payable if the employee had retired on Participation requirements (table 66). Two-fifths of the the day prior to death with a joint-and-survivor form employees with pension plans had immediate coverage. of payment in effect. Most survivor pensions of this na- Another one-fourth could participate regardless of age ture were based on an early retirement benefit and were but had a service requirement, seldom more than I year. The provided at no cost to the employee. However, for 15 remaining employees could not enter their em- percent of participants (down from 24 percent in 1980), ployer's pension plan until they reached a specified age preretirement joint-and-survivor protection involved an and completed I year of service, the most restrictive extra employee cost and was available only if elected. requirement permitted under ERISA." Three-fifths The cost was usually paid by the employee through a of pension participants were in plans with a small deduction in the pension ultimately payable to ei- maximum age, usually 59; beyond which newly hired ther employee or spouse. employees were not eligible. Maximum age conditions are permitted under ERISA regulations as long as the specified age is within 5 years of a plan's normal retire- Employee contributions The employer paid the full ment age. cost of defined benefit pension plans for 90 percent of Both minimum and maximum age provisions occurred the participants Since 1980, the proportion of produc- less frequently in plans covering blue-collar workers tion participants required to contribute to the cost of than in plans for white-collar workers. i'ee lbobunie 22 for change reqsimd by the Retisesset Equwly "S-ee aoViuie 22 egirding the R.6ietir t Equiy Acti rtchge Ac. in ERtISA, effertive during 1985.

55 119

TM* 49. Dld b.5 _ po ' Pamt of fhi4m. IhII by nMod 0o dstmrb rI*.5nt psyIu_ m Iad lg. n0m 195

-1 Tdi. '_ P d 1Ind Pl1. 1_ d -e p l _ . dfw np.-

P-f p-fb Tw ---_ __ W 100 100 100

T.." _ I r1. _. 57 76 75 36 N. NW 0.S.l- f . 2 35 42 to T d.,l.w -8bn.&.. a8 12 11 5 C ....I lp. l _ b. .. ._ 3 5 4 2 ~.m ~ n a ~ O .' ..... 17 1to8 12 P.-O00 n.-&btO0 -. ___ __ 1 I nl I C. _ r _ ____13 19 12 10 N. -0. A-ft - 7 12 7 4 G .*. 0 .4o 4 1 n. .. (0 0 0 0 D d _ 5 6 5 5 Doll.____ . .. .._. . 29 5 13 52 N. O_ _28 5 12 50 D.w - ,l4. 1 5 . I - ( I p.dd

Pn of .o... _ _I. n 2

AfWO f.- 9- -d.WW to pkbft b5.0100t 0 .IfV l~. 181-404 . W. W1480 -- t I UWOM W.5.A. 0*04d1- dM - 8W -I- y.- of -V- 04d d.0 j of b04 1 VW n-y by *,M ol _

NOM BE of -Wk M-I of1k.toby". tLb Dsh hd no -_ h N.b cty.

56 120

Tae SL80. - F1501001pnIo- PM=' 5.01.of hadaw60 p.cU 1 wu..Uith 54910of~1 uumilofi 9.014 1 o1 hD91 0-W _ d 5._ mS_ W1806306 14 P26.9. 18 - T r- 759u0 . n14 P201dwfw - ' Sodi S6.61. 9*- PW01 IWIm WON Typew0d -d of - -8 sn18 809 1Wm - -A _8. & Nd dAS NO0kw. 1h Wlihhwhl. _ rn n .W Wmab11 TW d 1w lOD 1OD ToWo_ 100 122 100 103 SIC lW lCO F; .4w y of 4. S 04-~ 546w 43 P6 n60l.CO _1 01 S29 44 92I - I _ 0e 1 -o_ el os -4 2 24 130124 - 6 5 10 3s0- I:A1 24 - I 1. 22 I 13 125!1.49 5 6A5 27 _ 24 21 17 25 10 1.501.74 110.1.74 1.75.1S90 - 1.75 1S90 - 7 3 62 6 14 I 67 14 3 ZO-224 7 2 3 I 2 225 wl 91S 2 3 6 ,6i 10I 225w,91_ 200*2 0.__0 30 P"45W 1- 2 Ms4 55 11 ~~ I~~SD 20 11 27 21 14 22 L00* 24 22 25 22 28 l _ 25 27 6 1 9 .d - d 2 0 0 a 1 2 _ I - aoo4 Rod d d 1a 3 2s lCO T618 1CO lW0 100 100 s6 lCO 2 4 27 41 42 481 - I 01 1_ 4 10 X _ _- - 51 41 (I3 0 14l 10 lI 164 47 114..49 o 11 24__ 5 64 23 47 125-IA49.____ 3 100 110.1.74 22 4 1 1.75 1S9__ 27 1.50-1.74__2__ 7 31 24 63 14 1 7 27 ZCO224- 60 1.75 1S9 _ 3 - 2.0CO2Z24____ 7 13 2 22251 U0091_ 2 225 . _1 Plp. tN 17 61 s 26 92 __.=0 16 17 ooWC--- 40 Is- 92-- 10125 21 20 12 By m- 17 22 314 - I Byl2_ _ 27 23 531 92 I 92r u0 92e.90 3 11 ow .,A*P .------I3 2 O 6 _ 10

t __ .

0N~1 . 81.4I 1011601 .0 0 8 8 0*1641A.op.1. 65 MIM -1 hI nh.pl- pa- Im r *- ~ b.M pM- WtO _* pa bkM d 91thp11 9hi020n 1164GmM0 411 10 0780 *Ii06070*06450160180118.44z ~ 0., o p.61.. 0*0.0 0S.Ip0d1. 51.96.

57 121

Td. 51. Defknd benffit pV plare? Percet of tdlu partcomfte In plces wlth twint m 6 fannuIad by defiitiOn of td1. emige medunm Ige flnn 196

dorn TOCIV& ad8er Cal K P18. Defi~ of _wk d t ad. t clralton pm-

PU pu p660 ToCUI - 100 100 t00 100

T years ...... 12 13 11 10 1Lad3 ...... 1 2 2 () High 3 ..... 3 3 3 4

oflast10 ...... 2 2 1 3 af . . - _ _ O (') III High con ------_. ._76 7 7 O s ...... (8) ( ) ) 01lam10 _.._._...... _ 6 8 5 Ofcae ...... _____ I I 1 2

F yws .... _ . . 4 5 83 1 15t...... 4 5 5 3 High5...... - . ... _. 9 I1 12 of im 1 0 7 7 6 9 is .15 ...... ) ) _ ') - OfCle__ce ...... _ 3 2 5 2 0 6w .--. - - '() 8') 8' 8' Hlig 00,60,0 e5 ...... _._. 70 70 70 68 10.. 0 5...... 5 53 66 Of 15 ..... _ _ 1 1 1 Of ..13_ __.14 _..16 ..9 OS, pe ...... 4 2 4 7

Le1ee 6,6 0.6 pwo m61 Formis based m, 886816 &xb perod Wmh ft60 3 o, 5 years! swos or p9iods not k,,gW* befoe sthe6 (f 6-,78. fire 5 of NO 10 _ee' so).

NOTE BRems 0o rouba st,8omol1,KO8" fterns may61 not u8l6t18 18s Desh h68m -o Inh9 * cdgory.

58 122

Toe 52. Defhiad beneft pen panop' Plolatof pa-hFm paltpmit M pmwtl pwcl Of COMM M ene foq01 by t mid mno awntof fof, m.*m¶ mid l I IM W bbnlo. lo n-Won f. bft"..payP-IwnS0f. so5 f.

Taw~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~lw Type8rd10 ol ToU~I Type ad nm o1 To d ct ll falti~~018.0 881elh.l W40 4-no 8S9 Nol 18-84004Wll 8,d ad 8, otd 8,n*. ado good

Al p0I8 4.01.81

TW ...... 100 100 * 00 100 100 TotuW ._ 100 100 100 100 100 Fl 01.11P pen of Plo woo. p pam of A. o 1 32 1 22 0 a...... 0 1_.....I7 40 la n2 L~a.O,1.00...... 3 - 4 _ 113I LL .0 a 11.2...... - 0 1.00-1.24...... 3 -. 2 2 s 128 _a 6 _ e 5.I.49 ...... 4- 4 4 3 1I00.74 __.... 12 9 12 1 43 19041.74. . 24 . 25 2 Go 1.75-1DC I __ - 1.7._____. - - 0 1 - ...... 3 - 3 ( 8 200.4.. Z4 5 I 1a 2.00-224 ZZ ... tw0n 2 11 1 2 - 2.25 Wnem _.__W 2 8 2 3 - PM pon p Pm p- y- .oelm -e 00 67 go 4 ...... U 83 58 90 3 By ._ ...... 4 7 4 4 4 140...... - 4 10 4 0 3 BY brlhp . 3 ¶3 3 - 8y .I...... 55s 2 54 83 Byv_ _. 1 13 - By %P--:---- I IlI

O888._...... ~. 1 - - 5 _ . .. 2s - 2 - 5

a . pi. 880tk d n f e -Wll.8 " ft - -F.nO0.4 . we 881P oe.dw of a g gd d by 11gP of -. 8000* - U080 d eo H adA. T abl d pie. w n - a - '*W M n." " O at aeo m an fOt w . to a W,,"0 00 1010af o- .00dL4 NOM e m. * e 8 alA wtdod i .0-de NW,81810m8,800 WTh . - prO meIdam o ERMAl d a wob mpo B ya of r d f am t d Iena oWy .on I payabl b d a bel t pa .0 ay d a 0 , h hi_ el h oa s .

Tbe 53. Dthod bw pm-en pm:' Pcot oftMepwtcp1t hInPISM W48hdOnw wiomt bmwffl fontid0 by type and mooumtaf fonmita wAMed mid Wrg. W1.18N1IM

.P1Om"to 0,04.A 0 P.W ft,018.0 _ tD emlo I Typ .00a0 ol 000. Tobal 9 oN4Typan.041.0. TofS0010'N otalj

nn 0104 n, nhunlil 8, mn~i

To4 .______~ ¶100 100 100 Taw 100 100 100 PhInmo p. v- d FMt nd meO pm ye d .8...... a 74 84 _ .0 .. _ .89 79 Us L _ _ 00 _3 5 __ 3 L1_iw . 4 _ 4 t0"9.83 .______8 10 14 9 15.00.043.99 11 15 10 _10.00148 1 3 1 0.414 _ _ _ 15 24 18 515.00419.9__._. 28 10 33 9 1500418.898..._...... 27 _ 1 31 00.83.004.9 .4 9 .82....04...... 3 _ _ . 4 7 3

838.00o.gaal 2 a ¶1 $2.00 4aI.... __ 3 8 I

4,wopmymnlebymt. - 8 18 5 tponenmtbya~~.. 7 12 8 h.4d pm l_ t. by pmtpm nft. b f 7 A-0 . -_rby__ 2P 24 9 28

E-._ a. e Wlw- - 0p pale dfcmddbewlt -p - * Ecm plem Ah doW no bmo* Ol -tmh d*4- L- Oe 0. pl ,,u,, _ _WW_ . Bo; e o . fwmk0.- Wc.8d 600tab.%2da= * leo* * Of118 o.mpeit. 8a~m of M.0o04 ea of kid * The p.AW - W t o ERISA*-l _d oaIc 11 em nind q

59 .123

Taml 5C Deflinedbenefit pesoW Plant' Percent of fud~tme participants bY provisio fr kvtegratio Of pensio wi ScoW Setricuty benefit mebdamitaNW arge ftMn 19 Typeof benefit tonded Typeof benefittoe. PNIs,4ho Tolae C. Ds~,OB. Pr~on, Tob'l sfICus Ob

Alpe~lset Technoicaand clerical

Wits,ioettdbsd ...... el.~6 Be 75 1 h0i stsdbermmil l 79 91 74 2 Onfsetby socia SW^lt Offsetby Sow SeWlt PentOre...... 40 69 14 t peymeot' ...... 96 72 24 2 Baysd on renle. 32 56 9 yI 6asedonswr*e...... 47 el 13 2 Not based onSero e a 13 6 Ntot besedalon reloe t I I Ii Dollar ourd') non - Dsollrwont C) C - - Percnt of par msnt 6 13 5 Percent of parnam 10 I I I I - Pt" oss...... - 2 4 2 Pwe- tss 3 4 I Sts..te oee 9 26 63 StoP4 .. 2aos'...7 26 62 - Ilte'ale elieSoa bs eftsdwa Social SOCo~tybseakp ohlt 10 I11 24 - SecultyIseekPOWl...... 14 12 27 - Intmgsled.it a specifi Integratedsf01 spci de wamit 15 16 39 - dollar laelpfcatr.. 14 13 25 - Wi~mMAlhieetdtontid 39 It1 25 90W0 bin~talnedbemis 21 9 26 go

Ylitlhtegletombds.... 6-2 62 00 2 W h'teutsdlnni...... 39 64 Be - Offsetby Social SecolY Offsertby Social Secoly peynme ..... -...... 59 70 12 2 psyssent...... 03 9 - Bfauedoneele...... 44 57 7 2 Sased. ;sWf...... 16 46 a Notbased nssanlo.'....I.. I 14 9 Notbonsdonserece- 5 15 1 - DO0Is sn e9--- In C - - D 4s w ayar- C) - - Po~w of peyssoa.-.... I 1 13 9 Powvenof Porftman 5 15 I P" eoces'. ..______3 5 I Plam s.... - 2 4 2 - Stop~rsteeocss...... 33 26 54 - StsP~rte sae 19 28 so Ins801 wts a Socia baetenateds10, a 900da SeOoltybreapo ...... 15 13 24 - Securttytssbmpdet...... 6 6 21 - ttIste atsl, 6 seifn integratedsMb sa d dols,WeebPoirt-..-.---.-.- 19 15 31 d-ler lbsallpoiol ..... 20 59 -

969005 I eute frut-nss...... is a 25 96 kig I dbemdim, ...... 61 16 12 100

"Ica,""s e.,1,pm1te,,1peso Plt-. Iwy SocialSecuty psyrtnersor C specificdola wt00.Lt A~ttuOsh Inbckalaeplans, M0 benefi tonoass based on a Pere.n of set, generally ofserts,of up to 93.3 percent we Psmted by an ntotnte ployasor enloyre contrbutions. RterenseSerlost for plan Wa0terson offsets in mnoemof 00 Permf I Its plat wcontid elars11,the on beraefixtaton,e based on W.sof le, w~st rel on.*,1 nese *. or dola mouetfs.each1 hitgrl for- Lessawm 0.0 Percen.. ffnftevise tdabulted Pw1Ic~w05sea Warded aswaernds or*Oetsted * Forffsdedoes not qpplyto wff*ga .Apld to FICCA(So"e Sea.. bersidamard, 6 nrns ofthe Om.si arseonhteogted sf) itemesor bIlowa specifdcllim, lreabpohint Senarttaacalotisled by fosrm" [a sedwsdby patic, of pribawy * FonmoAsapplise foes,beei rate to ewrsits sbjeet to FICAtSo- SocialSecu-y Parr-IL cladSeoslty mms or belowra spcii dollartweebpoit. * OffsetIs a*W UDthe9wpodoct of a penwoof priswy SocialSect- rt~ypeynserat and du perlictimls pews,of sersmcestt empwtloyer.A NOTE:S-on f bxWtA i ten smyrat eq*Wtotels While, became rmramssoffset Is ftwtegcy appsed,Omesyg 50gpe't of oon4gorbeoos 505Sw obw.s61fnosiAsofA, playnw *Beneftbsionadinadmalee eretonbys spcfidperotfbp&lIN ~ gse DeshIhitcatim en wropoyee.Ithis owceeguiy.

79-018 0 - 88 - 5 124

Table 00 Dm1. benefi peso pluu. Poemn of ftd-c.. pnl.0 by ffAnemon benefi ProWoNe M05*" eNW

To.e d0brb b11,i0Typ 01 b.,o tt -W.0 bM15Ol bwft;~.10. T0.-" C~ M.*- b.nof p-004. TOW oeS 0o

TOW1______.. 100 Itt 1oo 100 TOW... too..1 100 100 100

-101001nSo...... 3..... 40 I, 0 20 .o...... 41 50 15 201

L- VW 20...... 2 L-I.2.... 0...... 2 1 2D -...... - - I I 2 1 00 ...... I 1 4 3 21-24 M ~~- - (t 21.24 M...... - - 25...... 2 3 2 2 250 - .. 4 4 2 5 20.0...... 0 2 - - 20.20 ~ ..... ---.. I (0 - - 30...... - ...... 12 IS 2 0 30... - ... 15 10 4 0 31.34..... 2 - 2 U314 ...... 2 2 - 2 a5... It1 12 - 3 25 ______I 10 2 Ma.e.. I 5 ') I 30.. I_- I - - 40______~~5 0 I 3 40 _ _ _ _ 0 7 2 2 MMbIt- 40.. 0 - I - M- r- 40..... (I.. - - - O~~wi,~~,o.,f______~~~~0 10 S 0 Od- W&M1...... 0 4 0 Not W*.d t~nSood...... 00 42 02 74 Nt Mo .0S~kblo ...... 54 44 as 74

TOW1.. .. IOD...... 0 100 100 100 TOW ...... 100 100 100 100

S. to001notooI..-. . 47 01 0 20 01h40otlo.*-.. . 32 so 5 20 WAS400yes U1.40.04 on on 01.041 41 00 0 10 oe; o - 20 47 4 IS I..00010...... 3 1 I IL- ~.o.....2...... 200...... I...... 0 2 0 20 ...... ------2 1 0 2 25...... 3 2 2 2 25 -2 1 0 2 20.0___... 1 1 - - 26 0.2 M M 20... - IS 10 I 0 30...... 0 II I 4 31.34 __ 1 1 - 0 31.34 2 2 .. 2 00 .. .. 12 10 - 00 5 4 40 ______- 7 0 I 5 40 ..... 4 0 2 M" th. l40 C...... - I - M- V- 40 0 0 - I - OO0 ele01....__I_ 10 10 2 IIl OO.1n .e o.f..... 12 2 0

N01.taw ID M ...... 03 20 92 7 .010nS * IA- 0as...... 42 90 74

* The.p501400 11040o.1 0. bldpentO 01oOwfl 00M 1 Th. b.0.101I5.14 w.0th.0 bo1104 1. &T00M401.1 a P01..1

&*Wlon5= A 100Mtyt psy11.-ft. to a0M000l wr.1501 *.00o pk .0 bret W0.A.0 bood pn. -pnr of0.1 5105100aeypbloe 10Kb.WI00 S-.0.0.0100044000-1101M "q0 Wb10.b-0110 * ftpi...0100 III01.0..-b.1000o.04 bood. 0014. 010.101- b0..M0 f0.1.4 010*1 0 pi.1 110 h-lO 10. 01.1- b.00 red I M*, a0O~pd1 0.10600 Wit000110. -Ah01 pr.1041 MWo. .0..0..10. bo104 o wItW001000 - ofl010.& kV90 b1S11.0.M pmo,1. -o t40.4.& P0.w0.1. n 0. 0.4 0.4. 0.0 0.V0. neS.o. pr0110 D..hOtW100.I 10.1 4001.d400100 bollon 0.000 114,1 5000 pon04. 0v01 5101.00011 0e1n1. .t0 ft bo..koor0.0010 a S.*,.

61 125

TM W De&"e I _ pwe'n AVW sp t re for _I fled w anidyl _ 'et

FkWnW I r Yeas ofwOlIs . . ' . .10 I 1I 1o I s as as 3as a51s 40

SAM 10.9 I8.0 212 2M4 31.4 359 3.5 144 18.1 232 06.3 323 3a.7 14.1 27.6 31.3 34.6 32DM0 9.5 16 2332 14.1 23.1 30.9 27.3 34.0 'se 14.2 18.7 3D.8 33.7 . Ise 14.3 23.2 274 335 580408"_ __ 30e m00 -p40S0 o.6 MNA 30.3 34.e 23.3 14.8 1.65ass 10.1 24.4 23.0 33.0ass 3.4 825.=4 102 152 2.0 24.8 23.5 33.5 36.7 1V. 23.6 32.3 34.3 37A 10.9 1e.2 21.4 2.4 31.1 31 35.8 840.3 112 1e7 21.9 27.0 3.A 3Ke

Ton amd 0000 nss 341J 2ee los 15.0 25.7 30.5 10.2 'sJ 24.7 29.3 34 317 32.00 19A 1.4 234 253 2939 33.9 37.2 mooo 10.7 1589 21D 21L 30.7 3.3 37.9 11.0 e4 21.6 235 31A 35.3 3"6 140.54"*0.__ 113 22.2 27.4 32l 27l s00 ~ 34.3 I__ $2UOO 112 32.0 27.3 32.5 372 41.3 $mm sA 139 84 2.0 27.4 34.3 Su=00 8.7 12e. 17.0 21.2 232 23. 31.3 U4000 83 12.2 162 20.0 233. 27.1 30.0 e.0 119 15.7 16.4 229 s0 235 IIJ 153 ,8. 22.3 2a2 27.7 l C6.64 I . Nd -. , lealy' s

$s5l062340 _____--- 52.5 676 73.0 77.3 61A $I%=. -- 4&2 32.5 57.5 62. 48.7 70D.7 74.1 820PO __- 42.3 4&8 014 06.3 0.3 64.1 67.2 375 422 48.7 01.1 064 06.3 e2.0 swx.040 34.3 3.6 43.1 47.3 61.7 65.3 8.1 31.1 3. 40.3 44.7 4s 623 06.1 avibdos ud

soi 015.040 62 67.1 e2.1 67.0 719 7989 4.5 M32 32.8 67.4 71A 74.7 43.0 47.9 6.7 57.5 62.3 402 esA Z400 __ 3&e 43.8 48.6 3.7 60.4 32.3 on ii-- 34A 40.7 45A 00.3 06.3 56A e2.5 $40=, 32.7 3.3 43A 48. 53A 67.3 .15,0400_

Tl_ 76D

32.2 67.2 32. 67.3 72.1 764 4.5 03.4 0. 03.1 67.7 71.7 78.1 ooo 43.1 4.3 3.1 66. 23.7 44.0 48. 5U1 6sJ 6.7 e6s 38.4 06.6 e2.5 40.3 481 6.34055 a". WA 437 4.3 67. a".

- l - Stl f,,a .. s .d d .-.

62 126

TOM. 5. Oelwd' beei penIon p80,:Averae eplacmen rates for epcilu Mlbemnbg eNdyea of servic meum. endlarge wans, Ins-Cmtnibou

15 is 20 2 308 35 40 C90189,d 9W9n0 ad 5.959 S.Cftt br.0.

51500...... 52.8 58.1 52. 611.9 741 78LS 82.9 52250: ...... - 47.8 52.2 5Su 01.4 0518 08. 73.2 52502 ...... 41.5 43.8 48.7 53.9 e8.8 81. 84.5 $2E258 38.3 4083 44]i 48.1 51.9 58.2 6880 S525258 32.5 3803 40.1 43,8 47. 50.4 5.11 840250m. 284 33.1 38.8 40.4 43.8 48.8 48.2

R.1r0r8089r.5ty7.5a pace of -,,0 Inthe &007yer .86. W Mead548w1d 0849I by th. 5o80 OS-oly Afn08d a88 Th. na8Ont polool psc0n bo0081 an sspcys. no r08.ca 05 Fot 1409. p080880509495V -0 Inde*8lp ft8 580195.00t .Oly 000sn er.- 88845 o9lt . oid.Afod r1*0 .50 (- )W. 54)aW 158 -0P.M.8 of88 O.WSoolyb0,98V.89-1.0 Psn.b pler " 858ft cs 00 -V-s,4sopoNs r The 0. M00n to189. - sdWM59g85 ndPaid km8880812.* 505. 80,90 k0. 0- d-,o e s p.-e 84 -orO,. In 8017tyea, rea Con8.Vtb5 *00. 1 p58001 of paloOanot 0 plar ts.5 84015185y808 80wf0 05,94d008-90880888 Th~ss. 491- 50,0,985 %75551040.Jo 51 0 y 1, 1885. Edudaembo-st18056850889840h1, d.psdccl 589 100 -. h01 - f5 1884. E-lrkg h05008 rl9089y 05

TOMl 57. Deflinedbenefi penalonp4985 Percenaf fu0-88ceperticpen05 by 0,mlr , Spe andassoclawe service rqo~remne,1I for nlomad ratirnwent medium aNo w"g firn"N.1085

0889) Tsdn019 0889)WTOdlItO

Ag. andrsq00o~~~~ort9' v.84. ~ K P.- *k-W0~Sn a o 80000 805009 D. Pad. fi0de2rd bdf

T805 ...... 125 125 125 125 81i ...... I I I I

N. W Wh - ...... 14 7 II1 20 25-Ys- 9005...... L- 0- a30 (v..0) - - M) 25.25Y-Va.erl. . C...... 1..C.. 3880890580,...... 14 7 11 18 M58Man 30y~~ 85858 C C 1 8g2 ...... 22 24 24 25 N. ,A. 85qA .98...... 4 5 5 2 L- U- p 55 ...... - C 5 Y99r90,i ...... I 1 I C) 3Dy858-A.580 ...... - C) 10 Y88 ,A.o' ...... 11.. 15 9 13 11i14 y-..8 . .84...... ) C) C) C Ap S...... 4 8 1 3 15 Y.5095.W ...... 2 3 3 C 20 y9W8 A...... 1 5 C ) 20 Y-W -~i ...... 2 2 2 3 25,589,0 .08...... 2 1 1 3 25 Y-W 0e4...... I C) I C M- t-1830 y5n.W-r- () C) C) C 307900980-40...... 2 2 3 1

AV 58.58 ...... 2 1 1 3 83-84...... I I 3 C

2Dyss ...0 0...... 1 l0 YlsW -o ...... I 1 3 C Li" 8n 0n5.8 85840 I 1 1 2 Ag85 ...... 33 20 32 25 Age 0...... 14 18 is 1II No - 4. Wwr m ...... 25 28 30 30 Noso04o-sq*--n...n.... 4 4 4 3 1-47.81., .901...... C) - C) C l.8Y0 '.n80 ...... C..... I C) C) 5798,090,8...... I I 1 2 10 .-W .0848...... 4 3 3 4 1079y0*o-oe...... 2 1 2 3 151858. v ...... 1 2 I C 9 ' 257900958..408...... C) C) S 88049pof) pW rV 10...... 14 11 a 25)- ...... C) C) I C) EqW0.05aft.80 ...... 2 3 3 1 30 -'., ...... 3 4 3C) 85010...... af I 1 C) 1

Eg.b0 8...... 2 2 3 1 Eqo.h91-84 ...... I I I 1 Eq,81 588858. C) C) C)...... C).

E.104. ao -dI.890pareon p1880. I18988t.0.5 P00011 N-n,0 &-*,vo 1.d.Sd4 . te80p89 d 00*p41the58 p9,0701 I son. 98. p914981 890 W.9 99897 8n088 25,411*.84 f 0105it05 5800- 04 -0,.W 0500 by 0*18 04 904508018..-W N8 Id804015n08g"M.480040 ,80.nfts 80,18. NOTE 80 ...0 oo..sn 04 k.14448 0.8. no no 8qu00 68988.0.8,4.N._ U.90 95. w8iL00 n 0n084 ot 11).00110159.817908.898

63 127

Td 68 OWWd beft pel p' Percen of ftl pt by n*,kmnn ag en associated w r ment tefor = Mtme adw d 1NW1 arms, 1965

1on Td4cl sia~~wPmdL.0- Tachrkw goriwulllT Tedw" Pc d Age and OWAW mqp & Al pw. wad d- Apd der6 p Age ad w p * ald. p dcwf...tea _t pM- Wp-diwt6WOI fks~COn w

Total 100 100 ItO 100 Age 5 59 ------I 2 11 Patchwin phmp..otl 1 yeew5 _ fy. 0 0 _ aat thwe _._..___ 97 98 98 97 30_yeasmim .. 1 2 1 1

NoDMP 1-k'w 4 7 2 3 Ag 80 7 2 3 12 Lm VW 30 No _ra. Anq 0 I1 s _ _ . 0ny 15A__ l- _ 1 30 _ . _.4 ..6 2 3 15 ye"-w - 4 2 2 7 1tysews'aotm. 2 I 3 L sI=n ae 55 9 4 13 7 20ymW _w _ 0 0 0 ND _ mww-dnO 0 0 0n 0 t ywr a1ea.-e 0 0 0 0) Age fl20 5)'y-= VAe . 3 2 4 2 10yf 5e S., n ... . n -_ l5YMss _ I I 1 n0 nnn 0. 0 0 20 yewaasm a..--- 1 I 0 01 20 yws 4 7 4 S 9t Sp pbe_e _e_ 10 10 10 9 Eqmk 70 bla ...... 2 4 4 I Age55 _.______67 72 70 63 Ew b 75 -I I I Noaavidaeo kena9... 9 10 8 9 Eqb -0I I 2 1 1.4swn Sn. WAM) I f) _w. _ 1 1 . . 8yaa59Ae 3 5 4 1 EO103 5 4 2 2 7. 6.5yew s~m .. 0 0 0 - Eq~b 0o, e.(. 0 0 - 10y 6seAa_ 43 44 43 42 11 14-y=e sw. I 1 0 Pant In palW*hd soft1 15ym 6vb 9 10 7 te-ol ______3 2 2 3 20 __-_ 3 3 4 3 25 y -An^ __. n

'~otea amatal paidor lare. La.. .1 0.5 paret '810 t Is deW 9, the POW at el a skw ortidW a hi are pt, petiais mm abe samy a Sp, a, 9. and Oddpy mo" saaed boret baed or aec and eartegehi rs91mdfor sawh ymW pdv nhid0.11ttast age. 9 pinl had ana agebadusdw 0 rwwtk t. VW eatit TWMBera Ofnorat _ of diAl ec m1aynt1 ag. aid awodad mole. -s tet~de~aw9 ore sa raord 19dnot total. hbdeata m InhOft cdagmY nta.w fta the mqklradl tahed

64 12E

Td U. Dend benf po plan' Pn Ta 60. Dahnd tog-Ib ptcpnbe bf pson p ' P o h Pln pemttn earl retreen by fhne partiants ron by pro for d y fact for innte aWt of paymnta, medum mediun large firma, 1tes and Wqp fas, tS PM eno Tedtl W1n T- Rd -r y prl. -W p-7 0 .0lId vd noMn pCfi-Ud nrnal 4nZ-t bqsnn ~badrvmdl bonp-fn bSWt- 1- P-f P Wf

T0U_ .._ .. 1 7 100 100 wit-m6 f t b-to ...... tO 82 ft es t-so .. i) U 7 .._ ...... 49 44- d-&W It)P 50 51 Watso nq~tat o L- th. 3.0 ...... 2 4 1 2

3.143.9...... _...... 2 3 2 2 To l ...... O 100 t0t 100 4.0 ...... 0 7 9 )7 6 4.14.P...... _... 3 2 2 S N o.q or ...... 300-7. ... t1 18 If 13 S ..0...... It)7 11I)S II It)1 .ody ...... orro ...... - 1 M - I~ It I 0101 Sendc only ..... _... 54 45 39 66 60 ...... 314 7 14 19 A -d O ...... 10 7 10 11 0.7 - i . .._ 2 0 I 3 Mat W Wt ha bfo -lair 8.8 7.1 ...... daoblitybft .. ...20 30 32 tO 72 ...... 7t3 . . _...... (') - I.)

ToU_ ...... 102 100 100 100 P.,.to _i by p ...... 49 S0 49 49 R*dobm - f. d: yw ltnotasat d r kb r 02 43 41 70 o " ...... 13 11 11 i S Uniducd nora b=' 47 33 32 Ratabmd-ia 61 by a Rdd nnral lorinda' . a 5 3 7 b..k*e ...... _...... 36 39 38 34 to, Mann r-Wmiono hal a 5 60 i Dafterd bbah IYrmrnnt ...... FWntp 40 57 5s 21 by -W..... 2 6 I 1 Wrthbrnota Sasodor S a d ld ...... 7 7 9 6 Otw -l ...... (')._._.I' nt.d orL ...... 32 48 49 15 SO A smt- -Mdlt ...... I 1 ) 'E-W.s -W-,Mra Wm. pi.- '.In E t aud,m un p .*_U nsy p cxin Etou pom- peon pi... yea rdicrb ah.r 5ty the lan oip5r -ar 6rprage0 L than 0.5 pnL Inndlts _bt Po maty bi uPlt Wadby ddtoil 62b o s unbl an ntlIy rah a td 0e0 'l ta 0.5 pa.S l or becm fgb * Rdorhon edadd a mitd to ectasnl asnitnm0 tihet ' Thnadlad wntte pounPm bnrpotd undr Br plane orW e iY at egothat prio Pmt bSga b-a tOr--dt and aId r had ' tRe rduo ha-rrdcn o plne. no- A md ntent Wit br but Al mat ramat dte, or bad no YM f nIer ctuy clwW .- r brat men h po 01banf nt tblb. For or ro d to laterdat acatbrft ra be inlded by6.7 pertoh aoh year bte ' The dabld -omere p t a xntd odr Ohvplan. qn 60 rd thm nl pane nnrmal t it a. endby 33 pcr ha oh benefi ftrdls bd -o ye f r octally c ,nnda _ yer M Aohon. pcdse Atl Wobi a plane c ru midd ha nty recot bSnit Wa iy ha mh yer rr y be noa te1 ' Thn dbld .t. bM in nrauotrd np by the pIne. ro-st end nlty ha a.nfd ag, uuy S5. bt trul The nTh o sd hkda t ' Rad baY arnt Sr doter oe n- dald Iom -t r brm. orat hAnd, pcd orf duced nm benet la S.o S- ty. - pnnt 0f _anr td both wit NOTE nrdwirn SodU Seo- ue 01 ro undg n1 didul ir nonrot pl to- "Otftide tet Dash cSe no _npVWa Oft cepy. NOTE: B-cu of rndoirg, a-i 01h*hdwco temin not eqa to- teA Dhoe. me poym atOe tgmy

65 129

Tale 61. Defined be p PM=' Percen0fit of hiulhel pw111u, by Provsip for crt foramvim after Sp 6s n_&n and l. Vrms, 19N5

_ionI Tech,& Type ot -M AAoodn . kkVaW cddkcl tonP pwr-

Po P4O pat Totbl 100 100 100 1X0

No arem Io s _ ..... 61_ 05 6s s5 Pension deeedrIVo d Ca bwoowVt ...... 54 57 58 50 Penic dd 0 bJldsd ac-i.-.ly ._ .. _. 5 5 6 4

by psow4 p a8855o05ym ofd ...... __...... 2 3 3 1 Pelon bor46at . 6 ...... _

Ovdt Icr _wmm no a0.15.55 h fr. W.le &. l' .| 37 33 31 43 All s _ ...... _ ._IS _14 16 20 S.M.0*ovta to qd nmisin0n a4 ...... _. 1 1 7 14 22 ServC ovdd to fflbd mnmooyears0of sw18001 1 2 1 0

CIt fhr 8nio.. sith mdoal hncreae fo, kwth1us aQ__. 1 2 1 2 A-AZ.edc.~ .d...... I I I I Serolwcedted to speifed ap.moi.__ _nxnmp Soi. adW10to d ofYers smt-.

' The peoo 00m0u5oSsnpotd M ag 65d1 SScb hedby a sped_ p0.m.(not pot of th.5.b0051f05540) fo, each "vW fth. 00y0e-

L. Iranot0.5per *AdMnone Slo.Is pnc.ed In V5. b- fonnde. but.the p.0110 Is not hicraas lor 1aterretim5nt date . AdlW son, is bI Idnthe0b50 toes. Wft pwu5. is hWMed cO,at OW&rMdits,

NOI Becime of h M gsdpat nol 1of items" no 1 to- tblh Duh hII no m hibt m Cploymas.catagwy.

66 130

Table 2.Detotd beneit peso ply:' Pren OeE.be ho EIc 0 b phe nlyo ad hoepowfee mont uuad~ FrACEe memanIend ' bUSge l 1ad1 1

1 1Ch. lf Tadlc 01 1 dxdm P0 . ______II__ _ _ _ 01.ho s . 0SI30wft

Pnl d0 ' h Ole. o canl hm0 h the 10.4 psiod 41 39 30 43

postlyam Tol 7 ...... ___.... 100 100 100 100

on ._ .. _____.______.___St_.51 5 so 4 42 Tft . .24...... _ _ _ _.__. 21 ___.__._ 7 15 24 F..n ______...... ___._. 1 0 3 1 2 10

D:nd_ ____. 2 3 2 Pnede Icr _a~e, mama bed No nI bo7eS_ 1 7 75 Y5

TIdM10 100 1 100

W.UO.___ ...... 17 _ __ 33 13

TW.00 _ _ 1 3 2 7 Wm. * 17. 32 22 12 60I.00.0000N1000. .____ ...... _._ ...SI _ .._ I__0 0_5 7 SLOG 1~~~ 1 2 0110.01 ____._...... ____.. . _ __I2 ...... P1.OD14DaeOb.gM00 21 21 3 P2.O. 20.00 d ...... w"t_._.------.. ..._ 1 __ 2--__2 21 _ 1 ld2da elOo- 2 2 3 1 dt- o all__...... _ M w0 $moou ---- ae I202 t4MdW n ___.____._ 2 2 3

Td _ ...... 100 100 100 100

NO .,@- 74 72 00 78 Wlkl nlm ______25...... ____._24 00 20 mm m nd _0_ 7 _7 5 . __._._____5 $100.00o1___ _m _ _._ . .._4 _ _.__34 2 $1014.0415000 = : . : 1 2 2 1 Fon e0l.l00 .I _ 1 2 P omdof ._ 1 __ 1aa_ _ D 10 La_ t00lI_. _ 10 5 0 10.14.-. _ 0 6 4 15.19 ------..... - 1 2 I 30a -mo - 3 3 3 0a~m 01 a 2* U021 5

Notd .* ____ . .2 2 3 I

800_. 05old0ateS

67 131

Tabe 62. Defined benfit en ponse' Prcent of fbyM* p .Ib hI phlye gauthg ed hoc po*VrWO- met mi1aty hiaseeem edined rgeflnns 186b-.Cll wed

FP~4esaionuJ~nd Tect"Ca enaw Polchnkwft1 ctwcuwdm I m1~~~~~ uo1aitl mo~wO1mIo. I~erical I __I_____f

TolS -- 100 IWD 100 100

FI b f o u83 ...... 3 3 6 lMm do nlt ...... _ _._... 3 Loe10.00VW ...... I _ 2

V1e014Wm-S1a~t0W.eI _00__....._____ ... _ __.4' ,_...... _ 0 1 Liam OmS20.00 I_ Vft by del of 11Ww __ _m P. of __bw_ 33 36 38 28 1 e0n...... 7 6 8 6 5.0 ... __ 2 I I 2 5S-7.4 .. _...... 2 2 I I 758.. ______3 4 3 2 10.0 ______._ 3 2 0 10.1-14.9 I._.___ YI15l.04IN0 ...... __.___...... I 1I I 1 MWOthI l5. 0 0 0 Volt bydtoltof... e iI _ _ ...._ _ 17 18 21 14 Typeof alr e notdeltwn*a ...... _.... - - 1

1 Perpse yea of ao __.__ 37 42 44 31 W,, doiw 1a1 2 I Pau I tbw ___ 38 40 43 31 Lateo2_to__ 7 6 7 7 2.0 ..... _. s 8 5 ...... _ 0 0 0 30...... 0...... _ 4 S 6 2 4.0 .___._._ _ _ 33...... 3 4.19 la 10 13 6 S.0 ______~... 5 6 4 S 6.O _. ------2 3 3 0 Mora 0w___ _ -.- - -_ Vain by datofe l ._...... 3 5 3 3

_ pesde_. Yearo of21 ...... _ 15 12 23 m0dmydolwr ._____- 20 14 II 28 S 50O_50 2 _ n 4 850 _ _W_ 3 4 3 3 Sl.OO ______3 2 2 4 S1.0141...... 4 1 2 5 W-00 I I ~ ~I ~ ~~~~~~1 mOm___ _...... ___ .2 I _ VwmnS.yd=teolh.-.W= 6 4 2 10 Paw of IXee8 b -_ _ 2 0 I CGo.bbraft of 4eor ,a bww fwormi 4 4 3 3

Typeollomlhnode ..._..._.. 1 2 3

E'kd- pb pwm NOTE: Becaue of uwdxg. ror, of k d.e hl n Urracaaidd krosaesekipeo paylowen I 1Iyeero b not eqL.tuts Dash Wakens wl wnlIoyese InWe0 caetgory. M!l p4rILID 19861Eo15 1 O. " str peFerms. ja 0w5 - t

68 132

Ta0e 63 Dwfhnd balt poIn pt=' Plwlo of Tae 6C4 Deftwd bauf p_ p:as Pnl.M of fu*.45000pa"ftia by typ of v.9 .0i. wel htb.. pIFpa- by pi o.Wb fOr pos0r~*ard aMd 0W" h, 19M3 NEr.M arity, metanWd W"g. f 19m5

P04- 410,1WTod.n- mll ul Wa "n P.& Typ.04 .9. sdW. dl.*0. 6i04 0n pr. Typ.d ty I.00*54517- A' 4046 0n10W p. 04144- 04101 0f P

T _ ._ _.__ 100 100 100 100

ub.- .4 ...... 4 94 9497 CIOye..0444,0.4.04 40 44 50 7 50 pa n 10 IS 17 22 10401004o M.*411 51-099 d ' 10740106105la.1 . . ._.14 W...... 1 7 II 01 4 P ...... 5 4 2 7 10 _w df2 _ dw qp Is 100 p.I. d4 -'. p.2b 2 2 2 1 V.4041__._o*.__._.______19. 2 2 I 2 WU.* q 65 74 72 57

.. yp pk. 5 r. Id~~~~~~~ _o 'I 4

V..ft pbiW WoJMbdb _1 1 2 1 (\ cd ------.- 5 9 10

819004.9001p M Pa F- E ' .0 W P. o p 0..1 pl. n-W ab0l WMa n m0ngW. U ds po. ' A. W. y VW5b da 111. 0489 f.*..of b0 4f n n- ftn.04 --. b w8 .Wg .&4 n Wy - 100t p.,0. VW0. .edb 4WM- Th. .0 d paW. .1 .. Wdyt.05W004I 4. M 0. 1 d. . 4 . Ml .d, t0nlo-W *-d *18.-It 5 of00 WMnlW M 04W. 00_ dW41p .1. . .. d .W u.4 o pnO.00 hgft U.a 9*ne04d b0 to nd. ERES4A0 rn to0p p-4d Oft ..btu 100 paO9 .Mkq0 Th. E.n""o R9.aTa bo Sh .5 At na a b d c on p90 n4 p.q En O p.. n .W 9r (ER IS0.p04i A 10y . fan K,4rL*-. I 50f00 50 04 nOf.00 .4. the p0- -.r s h8 .1f N th.d4. 4..- P.4* 0419 0404.4 U.47.405y 0.04.00.00 7 W m W -0 1045000by U. PLM. .h . 'Th. RO t E^ Acd 1964 q. V n 0 p r d p p.... p , ou.Ay- A.5 d _ p 1 -a4 db- 1 O- 0O5P p -. fcnd df nn. -an n_*-f F.r norNc& b.gk p al tw .* ..40 4tk.4 50bpl n n b.0 -cn W M MNOEB - 04 -n44 ., 041 da. ny M nedWqn d Jo.y . , 196500m H . N._ 1 ,_ p'l* -W I , nCply Wh U.tl 0. .MS. OP. (1) 50 d._n d4 d Ht oo 0. bg.8 ,9 4l. r (2) Ja hy 1. 1_C7. 9 6 9 00 a 1 7 .M0 * .4 4 s. 50 g 00i . 4 8 81 7 8 .& 0 op 05 F-l d- ERIISAcndt WA I_ WkO .* plVWg dl_ ERISA tdft ' G7 d0 gntW_1 9K. . . r* - Ic.g on .o0tadpnmln _waaVo. d b V- 4 d0 I1.. 4 _ W fg100 4 0 p l aA Pr0Wa p0 . W"4 -0 ,h pi.. Owm d ERISA brow W- for gro*,&W beft 00h4 5 0r25 pF 4 0d, M 5 7 1 04 wo .0 0. 1 ._d p hc04 g9 5 _ p080490 y f 5 s o.. S _... .V a IS 10P4,049 _Po1 W .4 0 8of40. 1404 97 4 10 1 ¶1110 15 .10 10. 0OW.44 *044 104 4* for0 * amnOs p-.

69 133

T" DS&hIldbawit m pnee' Pt of 6fM p by forwp sl h i may, medimmnogm 1 a1ms 05_

l~ci ~ pm" ad Tedode ad Cb, w A pw|-w

TOW lo 100 100 100 Pi1asw Wo1 aVP* d 100 ID 100 100

EI4I copl4 ad .1 wnW . . 72 71 88 75 BwWdon0 wly oft-imi- 67 65 e1 70

=__wpU1 ~- n - P6Al nlpicoe 5D ofd "I _aldcn 51 4i 47 54 At oWI 1ssO61 14 14 11 14 5149 po _a~ 8 5 5 i Al 60ad3 cd I 0 0 II a o 5 4 3 AI9anon*O&- - - n n n - Al4_x~a pacoW di cpi 4 6 5 3 A lauqdoqco 1 1 1 t

Nw1SrIW.so0 _ _0 01X1

P5.1somad n n n n bWd_* 25 24 30 22 RS*d bforWb _o" ____ 14 13 17 13 UMVwmdsdOm e" mm0nw. a 9 1 7

gwm rm-w . _ 2 2 2 2

o0www 3 4 3 3

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70 134

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71 135

Chapter 6. Defined Contribution Plans

Fifty-three percent of the employees within the scope rate by the employer, but not a formula for determin- of the 1985 survey (two-thirds of the white-collar ing benefits, as in a defined benefit pension plan. In- workers and two-fifths of the blue-collar workers) par- stead, individual accounts are set up for participants, ticipated in one or more defined contribution plans. and benefits are based on amounts credited to these ac- These plans, which are wholly or partly financed by counts, plus investment earnings. employers, are designed to provide retirement income As shown in table 68, various types of defined con- or asset accumulation, or both. Accordingly, for the tribution plans are available for retirement and capital purposes of this survey, BLS classified all defined con- accumulation purposes 27 percent of the employees tribution plans into one of two categories: Retirement participated in savings and thrift plans, 24 percent in plans or capital accumulation plans. Retirement plans, employee stock ownership plans, 18 percent in profit as defined in this study, do not allow withdrawal of sharing plans, 4 percent in money purchase pension employer contributions until retirement age, death, dis- plans, and I percent in stock bonus plans.' Another 3 ability, separation from service, age 59 1/2, or hardship. percent of the employees were either currently pur- Capital accumulation plans, on the other hand, impose chasing company stock, through payroll deductions, at less stringent restrictions for withdrawal of employer less than market price (stock purchase plans) or were contributions Examples of these less stringent restric- eligible to purchase stock in the future at a designated tions include permitting only I or 2 withdrawals per price (stock option plans). Many employees participated year, or imposing a service requirement of 2 or 5 years in more than one defined contribution plan (table 69). before withdrawal. " Nearly seven-tenths of the participants in defined Of the 92 percent of employees participating in re- contribution retirement plans had their benefits wholly tirement (including defined benefit pension) or capital financed by the employer. In contrast, capital accumu- accumulation plans, 71 percent were in retirement plans lation plans were jointly financed for 84 percent of the only, 20 percent in both retirement and capital accu- participants A large majority of capital accumulation mulation plans, and I percent in capital accumulation plans were savings and thrift plans, which involve em- plans only (table 67). ployer matching of employee contributions. supplement a de- As noted in chapter 5, 8 of 10 employees in medium Defined contribution plans typically and large firms participated in a defined benefit pension fined benefit or money purchase pension plan. For ex- plan. But when defined contribution retirement plans ample, 93 percent of the participants in savings and are considered along with defined benefit pension plans, thrift plans and employee stock ownership plans retirement coverage rises to 91 percent of employees. (ESOPs), respectively, were also covered by a pension Whether for retirement or capital accumulation, de- plan. Because savings and thrift plans and ESOPs are fined contribution plans usually specify a contribution relatively recent developments, they have largely been introduced into medium and large firms which already -The 41-percent fgtr cited in the April 24, 1956news relse, had pension plans. However, half of the participants in *Retrnuent Covege Widesped in Mediumond Large Foes, profit sharing plans did not have a pension plan. From 1955," USDL: 86-166, applied only to dertned contribution retire- the opposite point of view, half of the employees with rent plans, as dermed later in this paragraph. pension plans also had one or more defined contribu- "aBLSmed these defititions for analytic purposes, but it should be tion plans. White-collar workers were more likely than noted that mat defined conibutbon plans can be med to provide retirement iecone or cmulate financial aset. Cpital accumuna- 'A money purchase pension plao provides for a pension nomsty don phlns may provide retirement incmne, became withdrawals of or other formtof retirement ascomsethat is dtertinsed by fixed con- the employer's contnbutios are voluntary, not mandatory. Simil rly, tnlmitsoorates plan earnifig credited to the employee's Ecst. A defined contribution retirement plans can be med to accumnulte at- stock booss pao is a plan whereby the employcr or the employee sets, becsamethew plain nearly always permntpr-retirement with- snt the employer jointly contribute to * nutnfnd which inventsta draweal of the employer's contributions (for eanmple, at ae 59 1/2, varios *ecunt Proceeds fromuthe investents are usuay paid to upon termination of employmnentprior to retirement, or upondiabil- the eployees io the form of coupany stoc Savngs ad thrift. enm ity). Many of these plns also penrit employem to receive a lunp ployce sock ownrship. andprofit sharing pI nre described later nm,rather than an nnsuity.upon retirement in this chapter.

72 136

blue-collar workers to receive a defined contribution Although usually designed as a long-term savings pro- plan in addition to a pension. While five-eighths of gram, savings and thrift plans allow for withdrawals white-collar workers with pensions also had a defined subject to specified conditions and possibly, penalties. contribution plan, three-eighths of blue-collar workers Eighty-ax percent of the participants had to meet an had such coverage. age and/or service requirement prior tojo.ing the plan (table 71). Seventy percent were required only to meet Salary reduction plans (teb 70) a service requirement, moat commonly I year. For the first time, the 1985 survey developed information on salary reduction or 401(k) plans that allow Emplyee contrihudoas (table 72-73). Savings and participants to reduce their current taxable income by thrift plans allow the employee to choose from a range channeling part of their salary to retirement plans. As of possible contribution rates. A typical plan allows em- provided under section 401(k) of the Internal Revenue ployees to contribute (in whole percentages) anywhere Code, income taxes on these employee contributions, from 2 to 16 percent of their income to the plan. One- as well as on earnings of invested funds, are deferred third of the participants could contribute up to 16 per- until moneys are eventually distributed. Consequently, oent of their earnings; 10 percent and 12percent were such contributions are referred to as being made with other common maximums "pre-tax" dollars Two-thirds of the participants in savings and thrift Twenty-six percent of all employees within the scope plans were aslowed to make pre-tax contributions, as of the 1985 survey were in plans with 401(k) features. permitted by section 401(k) of the Internal Revenue Thirty-seven percent of the white-collar and 14 percent Code. Thirty-six percent were given the option to con- of the blue-collar employees participated. Two-thirds tribute either pre-tax or post-tax earnings, while 30 per- of all participants (white- and blue-collar combined) cent were required to make contributions on a pretax, could elect to make their 401(k) contributions to an ex- salary reduction basis A majority of participants in isting savings and thrift plan where the employer plans mandating pre-tax contributions, however, were matched at least part of the employee's contribution; required to contribute only an initial amount pre-tax. the remaining one-third of the participants were in free- For example, a plan may allow a maximum contribu- standing 401(k) plans (no employer contribution) (13 tion of 16 percent with only the first 6 percent required percent), profit sharing plans (16 percent), and money on a pre-tax basis. purchase pension plans (4 percent)." From a different perspective, 42 percent of all Emnplyer matchimg cuntributions (table 74). Employers par- provide ticipants in defined contribution plans could make tax- an incentive for participation in a savings and deferred (pre-tax) contributions thrift plan by matching all or a portion of the employee to their plan. The inci- contribution dence, again, was higher for white-collar (49 percent) and adding this amount to the employee's account. than for blue-collar (30 percent) employees.' Usually the employer matches a portion of the employee's cotiribution up to a specified percent. For Savings and th"m plans example, the most common provision found in the 1985 Just over one-fourth of all employees participated in survey was for an employer to match 50 percent of the savings and thrift plans, the highest participation rate employee's contribution up to the first 6 percent. As- among the defined contribution plans studied. These suming the employee contributed 8 percent of earnings, plans were much more prevalent among white-collar the employer would add 3 percent (50 percent of the workers (39 and 33 percent, respectively, for profes- first 6 percent of the employee contribution). In con- sional and administrative employees and technical and trast with these straight percentage matches, one-fifth clerical employees), than among blue-collar workers (17 of the participants received matching contribution rates percent). Under these plans, employees contribute a varying by length of service. level of employee contri- predetermined portion of earnings to an account, all or bution, or company profits. part of which is matched by the employer. These funds are invested in various ways, such as Ivetment derionr(table 75). Ne-tenths of the par- stocks, bonds, and ticipants in savings and thrift plans money market funds as directed by the employee or were allowed to choose how they wanted their employer, depending upon the provisions of the plan. own contributions invested. Common investment vehicles offered by these Ematatas i this prsgaph diuff frets the pl y flg plans included company stock, common stock funds, cited in the Aprl 24. 198, ses rlae "R.eti6eest Cveage guaranteed investment contract government securi- Wedprd in Mdist W Large Ft., 1985,g USDL: 8&166. ties, corporate bonds, and money T1e Ry dEtmitted market funds. The the aser of eploym Btusy cteib- number of choices in these stins to fobeat.sdg 401(k) pla. It aso deraed te camber plans varied from two to pani-paicg m estployee-fcd pla alowing e-ployee cc- five or more, with three choices being the most com- bubtss with p dollar, be set thte nmber of uploy-es - mon. Employees were nearly always allowed to split say mabagtseb coatbtis their contributions among the various options offered

73 137

and were allowed to change their investment choices 12-month suspension from further contributions to the periodically. plan is common. Employees generally had less flexibility when it came Loan provisions applied to one-sixth of the partici- to employer contributions. Only about one-half of the pants, with one-half eligible for loans from their account participants were permitted to choose how the match- for any reason. Customarily, interest rates were set by ing contribution was to be invested. Where no choice a specified economic indicator (U.S. Treasury bill, prime was permitted, the plan typically specified that the rate, etc.) or at the discretion of the plan sponsor. matching contribution was invested in company stock. Dirtribution(table 78). At retirement, savingsand thrift Vesting (table 76). Savings and thrift plans are subject plans virtually always allowed for payout in the form to ERISA vesting rules in the same manner as pension of a lump sum, lifetime annuity, or installments over a plans. However, employers usually design savings and specified time period. Many participants were given a thrift plans with more rapid vesting provisions. One- choice from among two or all three of these options. fourth of all participants were fully vested immediately, and most plans provided for full vesting at retirement, Employee stock ownership plans (ESOPs) of all employees in medium and large death (for employee's survivors), or disability regard- One-fourth in an ESOP.' These plans, funded less of age or service. Class year vesting is the most firms participated provide employees with stock common method among savings and thrift plans. In entirely by the employer, The employer pays a designated these plans, contributions for a particular year (class) in their company. primarily in com- become nonforfeitable after a specified period of time- amount to a fund which is invested makes benefit distributions in either usually 2 or 3 years. For example, employer contri- pany stock and stock or cash. The vast majority of par- butions made during 1985 would not vest until 1988. company ticipants in ESOPs were in payroll-based plans Al vesting schedules apply only to the employer's con- receive a tax credit of up to tribution, because employee contributions are always (PAYSOPs). Companies the plan participants' payroll, for funds 100 percent vested. 0.5 percent of used to purchase company stock to distribute to the Withdraaals and loans (table 77). Eight-tenths of the participants' accounts. Current law allows for these tax participants in savings and thrift plans were allowed to credits through 1987. withdraw all or a portion of employer contributions prior to normal payout (retirement, disability, or termi- Profit sharing plans percent of all employees had profit sharing nation of employment). One-fifth, however, were only Eighteen There are three types of profit sharing allowed to withdraw employer contributions for hard- plans in 1985. plans-cash plans (covering I percent of the workers) ship reasons (medical, educational, home improvements, plans (14 percent), and plans that offer a com- etc.). Three-fifths of the participants could withdraw deferred (3 percent). In a for any reason. Half of the participants who could with- bination of cash and deferred benefits plan, benefits are paid directly to the participants draw for any reason were subject to a penalty-usually cash of the year, while a deferred suspension of employer and employee contributions for in cash, usually at the end employee accounts until retirement 6 or 12 months. plan holds money in by the plan (disability, The ability of the participants to withdraw their own or another condition stipulated usually contributions prior to retirement, death, disability, age death. etc.). In a combined plan, the employee of the profits in cash 59 1/2, or termination of employment depends upon has an option to take a portion whether the money was contributed pre-tax or post-tax. and put the rest into a deferred account Twenty-two of participants in profit sharing plans could Pre-tax 401(k) contributions are subject to IRS regula- percent contributions to the plan. tions and can only be withdrawn for hardship. Post-tax make voluntary pre-tax 401(k) contributions are not subject to IRS hardship rules, and many plans allow these amounts to be withdrawn for "hids propori i limited to plat whe nook wa cedited to any reason. However, a penalty in the form of a 6- or noptoyre aost dnina 1985.

74 138

Table 67. RetIrement and capital accumulaWo plan Table 69. RetIrement and capital accumutatlon plana: conerager Percent of full-tlme employeee by participaioon In Percent Of tall-tIme pertilcpants by combinatbron of plane, retIrement plans and capital accumulatIon plane, medIum medium end large firma, 1965 and largefirms, I985

Prf as-_ slonal aional Techni- Techni- Type of plan All par. Typ.plan o AU em- and cal and Pmrduc- andis c t hPodpucr- Type o~fplan s apbydminis- clhncl fon an- ticipento bnhSatmire ce pharwclartici- ticnbMit pavt moWv employ- ploy.. -epby- ma pus Total ...... 100 100 100 100 Tot ...... 100 100 100 100 Delind benelthor moneypurches Coverd by retarementor capital pension ...... S 90 91 00 accumuationplan ...... 92 94 94 90 With: Reatbrenintionly ...... 71 65 68 77 No othar plan ...... 45 33 35 57 Captal accumubabon'only ...... I ) ) Proft sh ring ...... 5 6 9 2 RetIrementand capitol Seinapnd otift ...... 15 22 19 9 acc tin ...... ufat .n. 20 28 25 13 s ...... 9t...... 10 II 8 Prolt sharing and Not coraed by rtremant or capItal savings... 1...... 1 t) aemtdatiorn plan ...... 8 6 6 10 Proft ahranngand stock. 4 3 4 4 * Incdudasdefand benefltpenaion pilns and deafnd contribotlon plans Savingsand slocke...... 11 10 12 a Tea or auh n mnoneypurchase pensin, profi sharing, savings and thrift stock more steak' bonus,and employaastock rs dprsiPplans in which employ., cortnrb- plans.C)...... I C)n C Other cornbinmatons hts msnt remin In the perticpans account unIl ratioenentage, death, (.)I 1 1 C) disabliy, separaton tromtseric, age 59 1/2, or hardship. Prom sharing. I ncludes plans In which employar conortiutlons may be itdron ...... 9 7 11 With: bom prhicipnemsacount prior to rarnac-t age, death, diasbility. sWpar No other ion fron aM c, oge h9 1/2. or hardship Exduden pots cash proft plan ...... 7 S S 9 sharing, stock option. and stock purchase plans. Saving nd thrilt ...... 1 1 1 La.ls than 0.5 perrantL S ~k1...... 1 1 1I Savongsand tock' ...... ) ) Two o ormestck' NOTE: Becauseof rounding,sums of individual smamny not aquadto tals. pl ns...... ) C..) 1 1 Savings andthrit ...... 1 2 1 ) with. No othar plan ...... 2 1 Stock'.C...... C) C) In

Stock' plan...... 1 1 Table 68. Defined contributIon and atock plans: Percent of No other plan ...... tUh.late employees participatIng by type of plan, medium C..) 1 1 C.) and large firms, 1985 Exdudes pun cash pinto shhdngplans. Employee Stock Ow-Trship Plans (ESOPs).including Payroll Based Ploet- EmployeeStock slosal Tachni- Ownaer p Plans(pAySops). and stock bon. plans. All ardn- cal and Pnrduc- Lae, than 0.5 perceL Type of plot eply...adrnise dlancal htont- NOTE: Becauseof rounding. athva employ- ployeea wms of indivul Oemsnmay not equl to tls. Oeahindicates no employma employ. msa in this category.

Moneypurchase pend on ...... 4 5 5 2

SAng oandift ...... 27 39 33 17 Profith g ...... 18 19 22 16 Immedite cash only ...... 1 2 2 1 Oeferredbanef only ...... 14 15 17 13 Combination ...... 3 3 5 3

Employee t-ockoworahip ...... - 24 29 28 19 Par"f based emply- *t.c onship ...... 2 27 26 ls Other...... 2 2 3 1 Stockbonus ...... I...... 1 1 1 ) Stok oprionad stock poch ...... 3 3 3 2

The total may be lessgml the um of the I ndid tans because oameeirpkys parhofyatein more than one type of proM shadngplan. Lesc i 0.5 perent

NOTE: Becauseof n xodn,Soon of ndidued ithernsnay not equal to- tells

75 139

Table 70. Saary reduction plants Percent of ful-time Table 71. Savings and thrift plane: Percent of full-time employee participating In plans permittIng employee participants by age end length-ol-service requirements for contrtbutlone with pre-tax dollars - sectIon 401(k) plane, participation, medium and large firms, medium and large firma, 1985 1985

Protes. Profes- ainul Tedn- ainul Ted- Age and sanucereqremmo , P. arid -c and Produc Itan, 4 an,- M cal ad Prodca pr_.n,' ciptintadnron- debut toll Par- hemeAeee trtv teallaem c nstie part t lantsi- noonv employ- ployne pteroci- punts employ- aes pants To ...... 100 100 100 Percentof all aeiploykat in plI-e 100 ath 401(k)featues ...... 26 40 34 14 With mrimumoapg end/or etensc requirement ...... 86 Type of 401(k) Platn 4 07 88 S3mce reqhrmnt only...... _ . 70 69 70 73 Total...... 100 1O 100 100 3 montho ...... 8 0 a yert...... 4..46 40 45 Free*ndkg pml' ...... 13 12 12 15 25-35mantts 401(k) conubton a made to at . . ') 3) 6) 3 years .. 42 2 4 2 5ns ttnd tlitt plPan...... 68 72 63 66 Age20 or less ...... 4 4 4 Protitthangy phaplan ...... 16 5 12 20 17 Nn servicereq . remat...... ) ) ) - Monnypcfhe pnen 4 4 4 2 1-3y .on...tl..ofe.. ce...... 2 2 2 2 Not yearsrvice reqiremnart. 2 2 3 2 * Employercontcutions ere not made to the plan...... ) C) C) ' Tatedtions sheawpercent of emplyees ponidpapongin plans to which Age 20' .it...... i2 )13 t they my mke cAn.rItionst wth pre-tao doWI-m Not oI panicipnt. may elect to make uch euntbutifns. -monIhs otvere .4...... 4f2 2 4 3 1 year ...... 20...... 3 5 NOTE: OscBuoeof rounding. ma of indrinal - may net equ1 to- Ovr21.yar ...... 1 1 2 1 ts. Withort nomum age anid!or ce rqremenl...... 14 16 13 12

If a plan had alternae paticpation requirements"noe iofwich ma seice only fthl st-ice only reqluirementens tabctuted ' Le than 05 plrcent. iThl Rentremet Eqcilp A 01 1001984 requiieo that, tor pia ye..s begil. rtngotn 0r 1t.~Jarury t, 1905.nearly eli pi~an mut id1ompathopuhu to lmptoyeenrcil-crme alo hrae reachedage 21 and who ha-l completed one lln ol serice Plans may imposea selae lequiromrt 01 up to thrle year-o thei mpIyens nestedimmediately upon p.cipation. Ala, coectively bugairnd plans neednot comply url tho eoher o0: 1) The en- pat on dete of the coltectivtnbrgatinin agrteement,or 2) Jaunary 1. 1987. NOTE: 6cause of r Joting.Wsu of ixividual iten mapynt nqualt ltt. Dash indicates n emPloyes in thi category.

76 140

Table 72. svbng and rft plIWW Parcant of ftll-tlme Table 73. svIngs and trtt pne Percnt Of 11O-1bm partIcIpants by maximum allowable employs contrlbution,' participants by provision. for pre-tax employee conribu- medium and large fIrm 1985 tions,' medium and large Wrms 19N5 Protes- 6onal Tncbl sonal Tedm- alloer~tail~Pmtior9 MPer. a04 cal and Prodoc rand .caWlend Prod- Mard.-m tlble cudotontd Otlaf admf tlal teonpar lter. par,All ado de-al bon PV- ~0ta0 5 0 0 ps ti tath's pe1J& br0t Wparo Parii Pat Pants

Tota ...... 100 100 100 100 Total...... 100 100 100 100 Pecrot of eo earrng- Pe-tao co-co ulbor dlowed ...... 73 Lo aVW S percent . .. .) ) 0.. 65 65 s10 Sp r-nt .. .. ) o').. 6 perc t .. 3 3 2 5 AN ceob*ra-a rMW~be 7-9percent 13 14 14 2 2 2 2 pn~te...... t 10pe e.t .. 17 1i 17 20 11 peroart 3 3 4 1 percet ...... C1) 12panent 12 13 14 6 6 parcont ...... 13-14perent6 6 0 6 ocr 9 percent ...... 15 pcont . 11 9 3 Io P.t ...... 03 3 16 pe.cent 32 30 31 37 II ptt ...... 17-19per t 6 69 6 6 12 pete...... 4 2 12 20 percent gater 7 0 3 15s 1 ...... M ..... 32 12 Speofid dolsa,oourt 2 0 1 5 15 percent...... 12 0 Grter than 16 percent 11 12 'Inclus.0 tb. woxd y not be rndled bpythe eploym. speneo dc4ar eount 1 2 'tfam n cond by plarticiarrl lergth of asoI.. e, or bol, the tnioal oobibtons mu0 be hgh pcentage m talolat0d. ' 01,0 0.5 p.hnO..L poe-tao ...... , _ i7 18 18 14 Mamum pre-ta contlbtlo NOTE: Becase of ncrr, mnots1 ofolMPalems may rot equal to- ,MS. 4 p et ...... s p M ...... 1I 6 percet ...... 1 7 prcent ...... ^1 8o 9 p0 t ...... 14 14 l0 peatn ...... 05 12 perOent ...... 2 2.01 - 1499percent ...... C2 15 peret ...... 2 2 332 32 16 pecent...... 12 Gt eatr then 16 pt rcent 32 Conttatarre 1 be petao at ftheno; s op" ...... 41 .36 334 Maomum pe-tao contriuon 2 is: 13 Les, tft. 5 p ent ...... (0) percent ...... 2 6 pecnt .... . 6 5 7 p et ...... 8 6 pe t ...... ,33 9 pe ent ..... 10 Percent ...... 4 12 pa t ...... 3 13 p-Cam...... 2 14 p t...... I5 paC.t ...... 2 3 2 I I 10 percent...... 8 B ercent .... 2 II Specdte dollar ount.. 2 2 2

Pwe-teeconribions not dmed.... 35 27

' P-tao Contbution re ad undrnte tcoan401Ok1 of thP InlOal Renen Code. ' 0 O*em 0W.. by pwrlcoant'slergtl-of-enlce. age,00 bot0 thP None p pena me talulated ' Le VWh0.5 p * Catouknt amcdmumthe npoe-tax lel e dmd oi post- tAo bti b. ml plem all omllue map bse 00be0 Potao 0 poCt-taoat tPma ploy" option Ina h. rmeso.en WM Contributionmuat be on a poet bas. f a ctxice btween ptaoxrd post-ta conta- Inee br hi0, Xmneo In the cseCoePm bone pestePtop enotabe tor poem monenono hfles een WAAlat.

NOTE Becaue4ofl=Kft wom of ttonra Oem maq not equal total Dea hlcate 00 rwicyese hd 0 otlimc.h

77 141

Tabe U4. SavkWg rindUni ptwm P crm. of tul-tb.. "il1pll by Provision for a picyar motcftIl conlotutios meim .dNW Wwn 1965,

Etltlyg u~le'-95lo. Tta 2p~I eo 5&o0 t79.0.P 00.01] Vn~

Towa ...... 100 3 53 9 9 IS 19 up to9vlofst 3p mo . o ...... I I -2 -2 4 PesN .9 ...... 5 1 3 C)I - C 5 Pa .o -_...... 14 C) 5 I 2 2 6 9 m ...... 4 52 2 27 I 3 7 11 7 Po...... 5 - 31 -I - 9 P.. .0 ...... - - -- C 109o em ...... 33.. 2... GlawO wn IO ~lpo...- I - - -I - SpeCifieddoes,a-owo...... 9 - 9 C )-C p ftni~mwe NWa9~sbfn

Tow ...... 100 3 45 9 I19

Up to9the lost 2 pe o.m ...... C C 3 P.009 ...... 4 C)1-2-1

Syopow --- ...... 1? C)9 3 Op 3 4 teI ...... 54 2 27 I4 12 7 PWc.. 9 ...... 6 -3 3 I 9 Po ...... 10 9om m...... 3 I) I G'0549mm00O9peacs. - MC 1 - - -I - SPS.Wodcbonf & M ...... I --- C) -)

TOW ...... 100 3 005 12 9 195 Up to the flot 2 pa ent...... 2 I 3 p~om ...... 5 C )3-2 4 0.000 ...... 1 3 C)1 0 po d...... ) ...... 13 C)5 1 2 2 3 OluP .5o ...... 2 2 31 I 4 4 9 ? palomn ...... 4 -2 2 -I- p0o' d...... 4 -2 I 9 po'oo t...... CIn I - --- I- l0 poro ...... 3)3...... Gr.RW th. 10 p . . . .-...... - I Osmpeowdomsaoms.o ...... 0 -0

TOWa...... -- 100 5 59 2 3 5 24

23 29 3) - 2 43pm- 0...... 4 2 3 -I -2 5 P m ~~~10 C) 5 CC)I5 a ..pow ..... 48 2 23 I 2 5 14 7 p ms...... 5 - -C 5 pa .0. - I ) l0 powol .- ... 3 -3 C Gso0o.tPIr. l C)' - - - C SP= s.s.. 9 - 17 I - - E-Oftoee ouy C955kM. a w. of malayup1 I, auifednu.. bxkdss Ps0.Oap h~dil my by WqM~of a-Am~ M ofcla- sel (see t~f 72Y.ea~.08 O~0 10909u ID be nufdled by ow1 ;"ope 001590190.1.0 o.14nuyey O9 Polomows9 m. 0.1 neo if the rne00o~ os by pa,"moeff Lms 91.1.OS pm9 WiMgd-.soo. qe. 0 boO1.VW higiee poe*Ie pw.0w.tp~ wa Ifildelmd NOTE. 9000.0.of rwKWl*1 a-Oe ONkwko19a 0etm011,,. 71,905.19 eVla Of l00l~eI 02)950 r00b59590n1 Idded by 001 k945k Dauh klliO l e 00 in.sye0ft ca0019.. OD09.5 90O0. 0.0 IP~dfed a NA~,sx wnWs 0041lo00o091bu9w

78 142

Tate 75 Sa end trlft plKal Prcn Of fLthn partICkltS by povi~on for hrwalnwf of esployerwrd esploys con ml meI&= d 1e lM, 1ins

A3 Prolosenrat and udrlatw- Tedaalat andd onat Ch _cersi Enolfol Entloyo Enel E.pOY- E.doyew Emloyee En.Opld En lawftwowbudcacatlel 1wbb .lfl~a odAwa cwfb

Total PlansdP.gp. At 85 doos by oy ...... 49 0 5 92 45 91 39

b rusbo -

Total . . | .. .. 100 100 100 100 100 10 1000 61 70 64 70 so es 66 74 Cortp"y stsok 65 Cnon ockhi;;nd 65 74 94 62 87 74 64 bOoda 34 30 26 29 38 32 45 30 Corpoto 10 Dotmed m of and bonds 13 13 13 1e 13 13 11 39 32 G-e-,! .not.b 42 35 47 41 35 26 oa, C b 64 71 73 72 62 71 s2 69 G.-M-ed 15 tmitnttt ...... _ 23 21 22 25 26 22 22 Ma6 10 ' ...... 4 7 3 6 7 5 4 tnvans~wtlcttooasn r dd...... I e) t) 2 1 (. NW.. of d 190 To0 , . 100 150 100 158 0 15 165 109 37 Two ...... 20 26 17 16 21 29 26 ...... 44 39 43 41 49 40 41 36 T e ...... 20 Fou ...... 24 26 30 34 18 22 17 9 9 d 9 9 9 Fjonome.. . 12 9 0 Inostroamdscenodt nrat81I0 I I g 09 mg 2 1 I 0

' Excidos plns l ,nnao.. optn to pwtoiao 69 55 ' Less Mtun0.5 peLI. m6ga-.. 1"01150 * rnotd plrdl0sh0 Of 6e Axe oroa.... real Stat NOTE: B666c80of iltl 0wa0s oeotfw0u 61t 31n,90 0 ddoepmto 0 a.04n oo smW 0oowt t01

79 143

Tabie 76. Savings and thrift plana Percent of full-time participants Table 77. Savings and thrift plartn Pcent by type of vesting schedule, medium and large of full-time. firms, 1985 participants by provisions for withdrawal of employer contrhbutlons prior to diaabillty, retirenent, or termination of employment, medium and large Prof us- firms, 1915 sonal Tacth,, upr nd cal antd Profile TYPe 0f vestot Frauc 8cad .11a ti o du. adeas . cliical tarnp a.- $kan1 TerI.. trat0v paro tio-b ft0 I-east restrictwapmon AP.,Mpar.pa and 0,0ar1Pnodec. Ps~ii Pa d-. Clricaad onr Pr- paras _ Ongarts pnti Tota ...... 00 100 100 100 too pents Irr redate Total htt1. .. 25 23 27 ... 100 100 100 100 C lltastontg' 26 th ht w torgana 12 12 12 13 1-2 years...... With xth.awa p ors,ov... .. 3 3 3 4 80 82 81 78 34 yers ...... 2 3 2 For hardlio 5 Yawns...... 4 () .r.ors'.. . 19 19 22 17 2 2 6 Fud Mdr5.a.W More ttan S5yat, . . 3 3 no penalty 13 12 le 10 5 2 Full towrl, Gladwated wetong.'wdh htt 0508 wlh p-lty 3 3 2 4 at.oc Parial withdrwai, no peaaly...... 28 28 30 I 1 1 - 4 or 24 P.rWal wiadshal aith Inretyens...... 4 6 4 1 Syr. PnFalty...... 16I...... 1i 18 11 ...... * 6 9 ynsa, ...... Notdet. e ...... _ 3 ...... 4 2 3 a 2 2 3 More than 10 ypars 3 F. -ryrasson ...... 2 5 2 Folrthdraal 61 63 59 el CLt yrSting.o ail, each clw hdy noapenaVy. 29 28 28 32 verted Fu Ihrid0 a a05t ...... 37 39 34 wlhft penalty 30 32 29 28 Iy ear ...... 38 3 2 2 4 partal w-th rl.no pnay. I I I _ 2 " " .. Not entWnare ...... 20 11 20 23 I 1 2 (r) 3 y . .ra ...... 10 14 tortooha3 8 6 Witloot aithdaj priions...... yaa'rs ...... 5 4 4 6 20 1s 19 22

BScsauepta. nay adopt aote-rore ntosfng Co4n oroyasioesd achwols. 00s01of par. reasons tor thd-raldaarr: ice or tapsr tlipeIP rcoveradby irndoidol cofing wcJldubs nay 00001 of p "n~roolnc.- dh5cahionOf -0 olmadrta U nlde, a 100f 100 parorat. llr in 010lt.miky laripY nfte death or roshng achadul.. an orployeu J. not 005004 to anly or suden ur0urrd bou. benaefts acotiot LL0 100n0.5 parotr1 00d10tha plan un0il 0a0t0008 t hlsareq'OrrMona to, 100 NOTE Lerssth0n 0.5 perrnct 6ucau 01 roming, an, of inoduj0hla, or nat equal t2.h Dash irotaa to- Gladootad ostorigOchadoles 0010 an -mploye to asylays in afthhMty. irfcrerSirg risght.to a grodoaly 0a1r1of a-crted bonet., detemirmd by yeausof earvkc e.?ntourllyreads, erd 9 100perceant vostorfig 0a1 Under clactt yeo tig. emptoyers =rA,, Y ar 101000) tOr a puti.cut b100001 ront010 it.0 1.h alto, salsl gyl ingvhrreq ot Suoineqont re ~men years bDcorr Ilyh ostedas each class mrtura. 1h.80ue Incouded class year whdulrd with both graduatad and 0liff 0thning U.005 fea.

Table 78. Savings and thrift plan, Percent of ful-time participants by method of distribution of account at retirement, medium and large firma 1985

Prolas Moral Tdrn. Mothodsof dro0Ut.oo *valebb 118p.- r cal a d Prodwc ,ond oad.i.- Plc tiri M.s haP tWe P00b-10,01paroc.tas pants Total ...... 100 100 100 100 Cashdistftaion' ...... 9 8W9 100 bLotos.atarrouty linclodro lorot-eod-scroor errr~tl ...... 923 2d 30 30 L rarM s...... 5 1 Luooqss~n . 9 um99 3 00...... e 3 100 Stock da£thbo orV ...... 1 I1 Not detw-nabbe ...... ) )

Tte total asb 010,~the talt rum-of oltae b d al iteas baoa mabrtys Pacnpbst are offraed optional fontls oflrash dirohbehton. 8oEmploysr aod ntPioyoacrtuotrem 80 ortad ably in '..pany stock. 01, astuddtctasicaop dirbutad Wm0ratirement am,9lo rmt. 80 tnrtatiom, 0 Stoa noy also be dobutotadundar patarpMoovkinto cash Leal thral 0.5 percent NOTE: Because of roradng. aott,Of i .r0000, nayne reae to. Wab

s0 144

Chapter 7. Other Benefits

payment of relocation expenses In addition to the major benefits discussed in previous example, full or partial or newly hired employees was available chapters, information was collected on a number of for transferred employ- other benefit plans, such as subsidized meals, nonpro- to four-fifths of the professional-administrative two-fifths of the technical-clerical em- duction bonuses, and recreation facilities. The data on ees but to only employees. these benefits show the percent of workers eligible for ployees and one-fourth of the production of the a specific benefit, but do not indicate the proportion of Severance pay was available to three-fifths proportion of employees actually taking advantage of such benefits. white-collar employees, almost twice the insur- Generally, benefits were provided to all or none of the blue-collar employees covered. Travel accident commuting, and workers in an employee group (professional and admin- ance, financial counseling, subsidized accounts were other istrative, technical and clerical, or production workers) company sponsored reimbursement within an establishment (table 79). benefits almost twice as prevalent among white-collar Automobile parking (provided at no cost or below employees as blue-collar employees. Only supplemen- services commercial rates) and full or partial payment of edu- tal unemployment benefits and prepaid.legal blue-collar em- cational expenses were available to at least three-fourths were substantially more common among of the employees. Travel accident insurance and employees than white-collar employees. full ployee discounts on purchases of the employer's goods For two benefits, the data distinguish between to the or services covered half of the employees of each group. and partial defrayment of the cost of the benefit allowances, more com- Among the benefits surveyed, eligibility was lowest for employee. Fully paid relocation supplemental unemployment benefits, subsidized common among eligible white-collar employees-especially group, in- muting to and from work, child care, prepaid legal the professional-administrative occupational interim living ex- services, and company-sponsored reimbursement ac- cluded payments for moving and breaking a lease or selling a counts for payment of items such as medical expenses penses, and the cost of reimbursement for edu- not covered by health insurance. Child care (full or house. Employees with partial with full reimburse- partial defrayment of the cost of nursery, day care cen- cation expenses outnumbered those white-collar employees and ter, or babysitter for employee's children) was available ment by nearly 5 to 3 for assis- to only I percent of the workers. 2 to I for blue-collar workers. Full educational cost for books, tuition, and fees, Incidence of several benefits differed markedly by tance included total lost due to attending. employee group, with a larger proportion of profes- but not necessarily for worktime sional-administrative employees usually covered. For courses.

31 145

Table 79. Other benelft Percent of full-tme employees eligible for slecified benefits, medim and large firms, 1985 ian~~~~d

Aional Techni-pby- B..M AU , caWard 40,Y ad- ~anddr booA eampb eealoy- -M.Y ea eeS

To o l.. 100 100 100 100

Ircomo ontoubn phlre Savera payoa . 45 61 57 31 - -5 befs .. . a 4 3 13 Traponboo be-rft: Par g. . . 66 62 77 92 Sobadoed oorml.... 05 a 7 3 Travel acd ionoame 52 72 63 36 Gins asd cash bonnet Go . 14 14 14 14 Nooprodi b boroi.. ... 20 22 20 19

FinRmoaand lgal FiRundal our..i g. .. 11 13 14 8 Pnpaidogala~ .. 3 2 2 5 Miacelaooas benefis: Employeedsc .uns.. 57 54 61 56 10h-se imy .ary. . 46 47 38 S0

reobtssemt a-oec .... 4 6 5 2 Remeaot fatdies 33 37 31 32 Sl.deed meals 21 28 26 16 ChId ca.e 1 2 1 1 Relocationalbeaoce FodIdaloaymeo of peraes 30 63 31 12 Partal delaynMs of e5 ...... 13 19 10 12 Edocabonala00tance0 Full defayt of e0eoao 27 32 32 22 PartiW dafrsyoMr o0 eotO .. . 49 54 52 46

82 146

Appendix A: Technical Note

Scope of survey lytical ability, or independent judgment. Job perfor- This survey of the incidence and characteristics of mance skills are typically acquired through on-the-job employee benefit plans covers private sector establish- experience and/or specific training which is less than ments' in the United States, excluding Alaska and Ha- that usually represented by a baccalaureate degree. waii, employing at least 50, 100, or 250 workers, de- These skills include the application of a practical knowl- pending on the industry. Industrial coverage includes: edge of established procedures, practices, precedents, Mining; construction; manufacturing; transportation, and guidelines. communications, electric, gas, and sanitary services; wholesale trade; retail trade; finance, insurance, and real Production:Includes skilled, semiskilled, and unskilled estate; and selected services (table A-I). trades; craft and production occupations; manual labor Establishments meeting the minimum size criteria as occupations; custodial occupations; and operatives. of the reference date of the sampling frame are included Excluded from the survey are executive employees in the survey, even if they employed fewer workers at (defined as those whose decisions have direct and sub- the time of data collection. Establishments found to be stantial effects on an organization's policymaking); part- outside the industrial scope of the survey at the time of time, temporary, and seasonal employees; and operat- data collection are excluded. ing employees in constant travel status, such as airline Table A-l shows the estimated number of establish- flight crews and long-distance truckdrivers. ments and employees within the scope of the survey anid.,the number within the sample actually studied for Benefit areas each major industry division. Sampled establishments were requested to provide data on work schedules and details of plans in each of Occupational groups the following benefit areas: Paid lunch periods, paid Data were collected individually for the following rest periods, paid holidays, paid vacations, paid personal three broad occupational groups: leave, paid funeral leave, paid military leave, paid jury duty leave, paid sick leave, sickness and accident insur- Includes occupations that Professional-administrative: ance, long-term disability insurance, health insurance, require a foundation of knowledge in the theories, con- life insurance, and retirement and capital accumulation cepts, principles, and practices of a broad field of sci- plans. ence, learning, administration, or management acquired Data were also collected on the incidence of the fol- in through a college-level education or the equivalent lowing additional benefits: Severance pay, supplemen- progressively responsible experience. Above entry tal unemployment benefits, employee discounts, non- degree of creativity, origi- levels, the exercise of a high cash bonuses, nonproduction bonuses, relocation allow- nality, analytical ability, and independent judgment to ances, recreation facilities, subsidized meals, educational work solve varied and complex problems in the field of assistance, automobile parking, subsidized commuting, is characteristic. travel accident insurance, financial counseling, prepaid Technical-clerical: Includes office and sales clerical, legal services, company sponsored reimbursement ac- technical support, protective services, and other such counts, child care, and in-house infirmaries. occupations that do not require full knowledge of a professional or administrative field of work or the ap- SamplIng frame plication of a high level of creativity, originality, ana- The scope of this survey was the same as that of the Bureau's 1985 National Survey of Professional, Admin- lFor thi suevey, an establistment is aneconomic unit which pro- istrative, Technical, and Clerical Pay (PATC). The list duced goods or serviems,. centra adninistrative office, or anauxil- of establishments from which the sample was selected iary unit providing support services to . counpany. In monufacturing (called the sampling frame) was, therefore, the same as industries, the estbaishment is usually . single physical location. In nonsoanutfcturing industries, all locationsof anindividual company that developed for the 1985 PATC. This sampling frame writhina Metropolitan StatisticatAres (MSA) or within a nonasetro- was developed by refining data from the most recently pohtan county areusually considered anestabtishment. available State Unemployment Insurance (U1) reports

83 147

Table A-1. Estimated number of estabtiahesents and workers within scope of survey and number studied, medium and isrge firms, United States,' 1985

Minrimu Numberof worAersin establishments Indtry d-r? etab """ Nunber of Profe nal within'ooP. of estabhshnanes [ Technimdchncald roduacton survey adninistrata cloncal

Within scope of ourcey

All industres ...... - 42,696 23,120,600 5.513.276 4,904,944 10,071,657

Manufacoting...... '...... 10D.250 17.7X0 11,644.567 2.721,391 1.654,133 6,943,863

Ncnrnanaacturing...... - 24,994 11,476,032 2.791,667 3,250.611 3,127,794 Minig ...... 250 557 475,911 102.819 54.436 315,776 Consaruction ...... 250 587 258,545 73,116 57.841 73,626 Transportation. cominunicasosseletorc, gas, and .. sanitary sa 10-2500...... 4,395 2.665.526 616.552 661,124 1,098,026 Wholesale trade 100 5.09563...... X5,023995.633 249,697282,408 380524 Retail trnde 2502507...... 66 4 3607601 40633 575,799 1,085,766 Finance,insorance, and real estat...... 100 6.861 2.594,474 847.044 1,375,302 129.937 Selected saruices.. 5 10...... |01 3,419 876,292 463,075 276.611 44.137

Studied'

All indostoes .1.325 4.283.802 1,189,825 952,324 1.020.669

Manoflactong...... 100-250 625 2.488,897 726.487 388,526 1,344.267

Nonnranlacton.g ... _ 7 0...... 1,794,905 463,336 563.798 470,421 Mining ...... 250 18 37,310 16,240 9.609 10,780 Cons.tcion 2500...... 27 41.752 18,535 11,549 65434 Transponauion,connrunications, elcc, gas, and sanitaryservice- ...- .100-2506...... 162 801,672 211,535 228,817 335747 Wholesalatrade ...... 100...... 9....|0 91 I 36.633 13,3859 11.167 10461 Retal trade ...... 250 142 365,160 38,218 78,157 95,127 Finance,insurene, and real estate 100 187 1346,163 118.940 200245 5,400 Selected senac.s...... 5o1. 73 866,215 46,891 24.254 8.466

E.clades Alaskaand Hawaii. manufactanogidasrie As defined in the 1972edition of the StandardIndustrl Classifiction * Minimumemployment sice was 100 for railroad tranWonraon local Manual, U.S Officeof ManagementandBudget.lndustryd1ataashownfor and uburbas transit, deep sea foreign and domesto transportabon;Oir iforma~lnnal purposesonly andare subJectto larger than normalsample or transporttion: communications,eloctc, gas, and sanitry" sorvicas and nIr. Sen sectio0 On reliability of estimates pipelines, and 250 for all other transportation indastha U.S. Postal This figuro imladiesoutof -sope orkers. Thesa wohees-eoeuose Seivice is e.cluded from the survey managemrant,part Sine, temporary.seasonal, and operating personnel In r Unsted to adrntisng; credit repofing and collection agenaes: constant noel statue(e.g., aine pilobs-ahe ecluded from the coasts of comprelor and data processing services; researh and decelopmnnt employmenmby occ-pamonalgroup. laboratories; commercial tfsingf labonatoes; management and public Number of establishmeetsand orkes shows within the scope of elahoro sorica; enginareng and architc.ural seraces; noncomrcial the sureyare estates. These estmates dioor fron those de-elopedin research organnaionsi and accounting. auditng, and bookkeeping the 1985 PATC rey., snce each e based on the findings of its seruices. raspec-ie survey Minimum employment nice was 50 for accouting. nditing, and Minimamemployment e was 100 for chemical and allied producs; bookkeepingservices; and 100 in all other solectedserices. petrolnam refrisog and related iidstaeu: iichinep nxcept electrial, These Store refer to all respondents to the surey, whather or not electrical machineary.pauip-e and supplies, trhanspabon equipment they provded data for oil ites studied See the secton on surey and instacoats and related prod-st. Minimamnice was 250 in all other response.

for the 48 States covered by the survey and the Dis- required for data collection. The sample of 1,5"9 estab- t trict of Columbia. The reference date of the available lishments was selected by first stratifying the sampling Ul reports was generally March 1983. The refinement frame by broad industry group and establishment size procedures included an effort to ensure that most sam- group based on the total employment in the establish- pling frame units corresponded to the definition of an ment. The industry groups consisted of the eight major establishment developed for this survey. (A small num- industry divisions, as defined by the Office of Manage- ber of sampling frame units were not refined to corre- ment and Budget, which are covered by the survey and spond to the definition of an establishment because of shown in table A-I. limited company reporting ability.)

Sample design 'The number of sample ucots selected in this survey Is at present, The sample for this survey was a subsample of the largely detenmined by resourcesand operational constrants and may 1985 PATC sample to reduce the costs and resources be adjusted op or down in future srseys.

84 148

The establishment size groups are defined as follows: participated in insurance, retirement, or capital accumulation plans, or were eligible for other benefits. Ex- Employnent sie Esvbliuhmet cept in table 79, counts of workers covered by benefit group emnployment plans included those who had not met possible mini- 50-99 time of the 4...... mum length-of-service requirements at the ...... I00-249 survey. Workers were counted as participants in em- ...... 250-499 6...... 500-999 ployee benefit plans that require the employee to pay 5...... 1,000-2,499 part of the cost only if they elected the plan and paid 8...... 2,500-4,999 their share. Plans for which the employee paid the full 9...... 5,000-9,999 Is...... 10,000 and over premium were outside the scope of the survey, even if the employer paid administrative costs. When tabulat- The sample size was allocated to each stratum (de- ing the effect of retirement on life insurance and health fined by industry and size) approximately proportional insurance coverage, however, cases where the retiree to the total employment of all sampling frame estab- must pay the full cost of the insurance were counted lishments in the stratum. Thus, a stratum which con- since the guarantee of insurability at group rates is con- tained I percent of the total employment within the sidered a benefit. scope of the survey received approximately I percent Most of the tables in this bulletin show the percent of the total sample. The result of this allocation proce- of workers covered by individual benefit plans or plan dure is that each stratum will have a sampling fraction provisions. Percentages are calculated in three ways. (the ratio of the number of units in the sample to the One technique, followed in tables 1-4, 6, 8, 10-16, and number in the sampling frame) which is proportionate 67-68, shows the number of covered workers as a per- to the average measure of size of the units in the stratum. cent of all workers within the scope of the survey. It A random sample was selected within each stratum is designed to show the incidence of the individual em- using a probability technique to maximize the probabil- ployee benefit. ity of retaining establishments which were selected in A second approach is followed in tables 7, 9, 20-27, the 1984 survey.' This method of selection reduced col- 39-40, 42-44, 47-49, 54-55, 57-58, 61, 63-66, 69-74, lection costs by decreasing the number of new estab- and 76-78. These tables show the number of workers lishments in the sample. covered by specific features in a benefit area as a percent of all employees who participate in that general Data collection benefit area. They also answer questions concerning the Data for the survey were collected by visits of Bu- typical coverage provided to persons with a given in- reau field representatives to the sampled establishments. surance, retirement, or capital accumulation plan; for To reduce the reporting burden, respondents provided example, what percent of all employees with health in- documents to BLS describing their retirement and capi- surance receive dental coverage? tal accumulation plans and plans covering the four in- The third approach provides a close look at an im- sured benefit areas within the scope of the survey. These portant feature (tables 21, 28-38, 41, 45-46, 50-53, and documents included employee handbooks, brochures, 59); for example, what percent of all employees with insurance policies, and summary plan descriptions that dental coverage in their health insurance are covered employers are required to provide to employees under for orthodontic work? Tables 60, 62, 70, and 75 com- ERISA. These were analyzed by BLS staff in Wash- bine the second and third types above, indicating in the ington to obtain the required data on plan provisions. first row of data the percent of persons in the benefit Data on paid leave and other benefits generally were area who have a particular coverage, while the remain- obtained directly from the employers at the time of the der of the table is based on all employees with that visit. coverage. Table 19 uses a similar approach. Data were collected during the months of January This multilevel approach has the advantage of clearly through July, reflecting an average reference period of pointing out typical benefit plan characteristics after the March 1985. Respondents were asked for information prevalence of the benefit has been established. Any of as of the time of the data collection visit. the second or third types of tables, if desired, can be converted to the first type by multiplying each data cell Data tabulation by the appropriate factors. For example, to calculate The tables presented in this bulletin show the percent the percent of all employees with orthodontic cover- of employees who were covered by paid leave plans, age, multiply the percent of those with dental plans that cover orthodontia (table 33) by the percent of health 'Thins ethod oodifies tbemethod introduced by Nathai Keyfiu insurance participants with dental coverage (table 26), Adjusting for om Sampling oith ProbabilitiesPropolionl to Si.e all employ- Changesin theProbibilities," Joor-l of the A-.ao Sttatimol A,- and multiply that product by the percent of soriod, March 1951,pp. 105-9. ees who have health insurance coverage (table 1).

85 149

Tables 5, 17-18, and 56 differ from other tables be- Horvitz-Thompson, which assigns the inverse of each cause they display average benefit values rather than sample unit's probability of selection as a weight to the percentages of workers. These tables present the aver- unit's data. The estimator is modified to account for a ages for all covered employees; calculations exclude weight adjustment factor developed during the adjust- workers without the benefit. ment for nonresponse. The general form of the estimator for a population total is: Survey response Each combination of occupational group and work n Y schedule or benefit area (e.g., health insurance for production employees) was treated as an individual survey iil P. and separate estimates were developed for each. This treatment facilitated the use of partially completed es- where n = sample size tablishment reports in the survey. Therefore, the actual y-= value for the characteristics of the ill unit number of responses for the survey varies for each P the probability of including the ilh unit in combination. the sample The following summary is a composite picture of the The basic form of the establishment responses to the survey: estimator, after modification to account for the weight adjustment factor, fi, developed Numberof esrbhih-enwn. during the adjustment for nonresponse, was: In sample ...... 1,509 ni ri Yi Oni of business and out of scope ...... 43 Refusing io respond ...... 123 y = E; Nonresponseoiher refusal ...... 15 i=l Pi Responditg fully than partially ...... I.325 where nI = number of responding units There are two procedures used to adjust for missing data from partial schedules and total refusals. First, im- fi = weight adjustment factor for the uh unit. putations for the number of plan participants are made for cases where this number is not reported (6 percent Appropriate employment or establishment totals are of all participants in the 1985 survey). Each of these used to calculate the proportion, mean, or percentage values is imputed by randomly selecting a similar plan which is desired. from another establishment in a similar industry and geographic region. The participation rate from the ran- Reliability of estimates domly selected plan is then used to approximate the The statistics in this bulletin are estimates derived number of participants for the plan which is missing a from a sample of 1,500 establishments, rather than tabu- participation value but was otherwise usable. lations based on all 43,000 medium and large establish- For other forms of missing data (or nonresponse), an ments within scope of the survey. Consequently, the adjustment is made using a weight adjustment technique data are subject to sampling errors, as well as norsam- based on sample unit employment. Under such a tech- pling errors. nique, a model is assumed in which the mean value of Sampling errors are the differences that can arise be- the nonrespondents is equal to the mean value of the tween results derived from a sample and those com- respondents at some detailed "cell" level. These cells puted from observations of all units in the population are defined in a manner that groups establishments to- being studied. When probability techniques are used to gether which are homogeneous with respect to the select a sample, as in the Employee Benefits Survey, characteristics of interest. In most cases, these cells are statistical measures called "standard errors" can be cal- the same as those used for sample selection. The spe- culated to measure possible sampling errors. cific weight adjustments used in this survey were cal- This evaluation of survey results involves the forma- culated in four stages for each occupational group and tion of confidence intervals that can be interpreted in benefit area combination. This allowed a maximum the following manner: Assume that repeated random amount of data from partially completed establishment samples of the same size are drawn from a given popu- reports to be incorporated into survey estimates. For lation and an estimate of some value, such as a mean example, data on the number of an occupational group's or percentage, is made from each sample. Then, the in- employees in an establishment or participants in a plan, tervals described by one standard error below each or information on the existence of a plan, could be used sample's estimate and one standard error above would even if the plan provisions could not be obtained. include the population's value for 68 percent of the samples. Confidence rises to 90 percent if the intervals Survey estimation methods surrounding the sample estimates are widened to plus The survey design uses an unbiased estimator, the and minus 1.6 standard errors, and to 95 percent if the 86 150

that the characteristics of non- intervals are increased to plus and minus 2 standard However, to the extent those of respondents, errors. respondents are not the same as in the development Chart A provides standard errors for use in evaluat- nonsampling errors are introduced Because the impact of these limitations on ing the estimates in the 75 tables of this bulletin con- of estimates. the Employee Benefits Survey estimates is unknown, taining percentage estimates. For example, table 1 re- measurements are incomplete. ports that 67 percent of all employees participated in reliability those readers interested in further mathematical sick leave plans in 1985. Chart A shows a standard er- For next section describes how chart A was ror of approximately 1.6 percent for this estimate. Thus, details, the from 1982 survey data. at the 95 percent level, the confidence interval for this derived estimate is 64 percent to 70 percent (67 plus and minus Mathematical details on estimates and generalized stan- 2 times 1.6 percent). Standard errors for the four bul- dard errors chart letin tables not containing percentages-5, 17, 18, and 56-are not yet available Each estimator used in the production of the tables in Nonsampling errors also affect survey results. They this bulletin is approximately normally distributed. can be attributed to many sources: Inability to obtain information about all establishments in the sample; Standard errors for the percentage estimates were com- their definitional difficulties; differences in the interpretation puted from the 1982 survey data. To simplify of questions; inability or unwillingness of respondents presentation, a curve was fitted to the standard error to provide-connect information; mistakes in recording estimates by regression techniques. or coding the data; and other errors of collection, response, processing, coverage, and estimation for miss- The curve's equation is: ing data. Through the use of computer edits of the data 2 2 + b (ln(P)1 + c (ln(O0- Pfl + d In(P) In(IOD-P)l and professional review of both individual and summa- la S=e rized data, efforts are made to reduce the nonsampling errors in recording, coding, and processing the data.

Chart A. Employee benefits survey generalized standard errors,

87 151

where ferences between curves using 1982 and 1983 data are negligible.

S = standard error The equation of the curve was obtained empirically, by P = percentage estimate from the bulletin, and e and In are using regression methods, and starting with the equation: notations for the exponential and natural logarithm function. S = a ph (100 -p)c For the 1982 Employee Benefits Survey, a = -0.64683, b = -0.02603, c = -0.017458 and d =0.123726. More information describing survey response and reliability may be obtained from the Office of Wages These are regression coefficients. The curve fits the data with and Industrial Relations, Bureau of Labor Statistics, = 0.83 and no pastern in the residuals. Moreover, dif. U.S. Department of Labor, Washington, DC 20212.

88 152

Appendix B: Availability of the Survey's Data Base

The tables published in this bulletin present the major Purchasers also receive the control file, which con-. findings of the Employee Benefits Survey; results of ad- tains establishment information required to produce ditional research appear in the Monthly Labor Review. estimates from the plan data. Control file records in- However, these cover only a portion of the employee clude establishment sample weights and size codes; benefits information collected. Persons interested in all geographic, industrial, and employee group classifica- provisions of a particular benefit studied during the an- tion codes; and the number of workers in the employee nual survey can purchase a set of magnetic tapes con- group. The control file also lists all benefit plans offered taining the survey's data base through the Office of in each establishment, with the number of plan par- Wages and Industrial Relations, Bureau of Labor ticipants in each employee group. A plan is listed on Statistics, Washington, D. C. 20212. The charge for fur- more than one control file record if it covers employees nishing the data is limited to the cost of producing the in more than one establishment. Although plan iden- tapes and preparing supporting documentation. tification numbers on the control file are scrambled, the For major benefit items, the BLS survey obtained same scrambled numbers appear on the data file so they plan provisions and employee participation data for can be matched to make estimates. Because establish- each of three employee groups (professional- ment schedule numbers on the control file are scrambled administrative, technical-clerical, and production differently for each employee group, it will not be possi- workers). Information on employer costs was not col- ble to fink together plans offered to different employee lected. The magnetic tapes, which consist of a control groups within an establishment. file and plan data files for each benefit area, may be used Benefit provisions obtained from plan documents are to derive national estimates, similar to those published recorded in coding manuals for insurance, retirement, in this bulletin, for other items on the data base. For and capital accumulation plans, and are then entered on some data items not presented in this bulletin, however, the plan data file. A set of coding manuals and instruc- the dataffle is insufficient to produce reliable national dons for completing them are supplied to tape pur- estimates, because either information on the provisions chasers for interpretation of data on the file. Paid time- frequently was not available or the number of off provisions are reported on collection forms which employees with the provision was very small. Moreover, are also provided to tape purchasers. the tapes cannot yield reliable estimates for individual The analysis of insurance, retirement, and capital ac- industries, geographic regions, or establishment size cumulation plans is extremely detailed. The following classes. Full documentation accompanies the tapes, in- list of health insurance plan provisions included in the cluding examples of estimating formulas. Although data base gives an indication of the breadth and depth Bureau staff will respond to any questions concerning of the information available on the magnetic tapes. the content of the tapes, technical assistance in develop- Other insurance and pension analysis is similarly ing estimates cannot be provided to purchasers due to detailed. the heavy workload associated with the survey program. Data users can purchase tapes with details of plans Health Insurance data base for one benefit area or all, i.e., health, life, sickness and Plan participation requirements accident, and long-term disability insurance; private When plan participation begins retirement and capital accumulation plans; and paid Waiting period by type of benefit time-off provisions-lunch time, rest periods, Maximum age for participation holidays, personal leave, vacations, funeral leave, jury duty leave, military leave, and sick leave. (Table 79 Employee contribution for employee and family presents all of the information that was collected on the benefits-percent paid or monthly contribution other benefits surveyed.) The plan data file contains provisions for each plan which was reported and for Section A which usable information was available. However, plan Funding media for major categories of health care identification numbers on the tape are scrambled (and Hospital benefits other identifying information is removed) to protect the Surgical benefits confidentiality of responding establishments. Medical benefits

89 153

Major medical benefits Mental health care benefits Dental benefits Mental health care coverage Hospital confinements due to mental disorders Administrative details Hospital confinements due to mental disorders Pre-existing condition covered the same as other illnesses Minimum age of dependent children Selected coverages for mental health care Waiting period in case of infant illness Coverage in special hospital Maximum age of dependent children Retiree eligibility Dental care benefits Effect of retirement on coverage or contributions Dental care coverage Disabled employees' benefit coverage Coverage of employees Survivors' benefit coverage Coverage of spouses Coverage of dependent children Section B Prophylaxis and routine exams Hospital and extended care coverage Fillings Hospital room and board coverage Surgery-dental Hospital intensive care Inlays Hospital miscellaneous coverage Extended care coverage Crowns Extended care in licensed extended care facility Periodontal care Basis of extended care coverage X-rays Extended care by home health care Orthodontia Incentive schedule Surgical and medical benefits Deductible Surgical care coverage Maximum coverage Surgical schedule Copayment Conversion factor for relative value schedule Vision care benefits Selected surgical procedure maximums Vision care coverage Maximum for multiple procedure In-hospital medical coverage Eyeglasses Medical office coverage Schedule for eyeglasses Eye exams Maternity care benefit Contact lenses Who is covered Orthoptics Obstetrical schedule Other medical benefits Voluntary abortion coverage Second surgical Miscarriages or therapeutic abortion coverage opinion Maximum for male sterilization Alcoholism treatment Maximum for female sterilization Drug abuse treatment Separate deductibles Hearing care Hospice care Diagnostic X-ray and laboratory testing (DXL) Physical examinations benefit Cost containment DXL coverage features Limitations on DXL coverage DXL schedule Section C Selected DXL procedure maximums Deductible, coinsurance, and/or maximum benefit provisions Outpatient care and special accident benefit Covered expenses Outpatient care coverage Deductible expenses Comparison of inpatient and outpatient coverage Coinsurance by the amount of incurred expenses Separate limitations Coinsurance by the number of days/visits Outpatient charges covered under major medical Maximum dollar per day/visit by number of Accidental bodily injury-special benefit days/visits Maximum number of days/visits for specified ex- Prescription drug and private duty nursing coverage penses Prescription drug Maximum dollar payable for specified covered ex- Private duty nursing penses 154

Section C questions are designed to identify and surance, and maximum benefit provisions. In the first describe the benefit provisions of covered expenses in question of each set, a group of expenses with common section B that are subject to deductible, coinsurance, provisions is identified. The remaining 6 questions give and/or maximum benefit provisions. This section con- the benefit provisions for the group. Additional sets of sists of 15 sets of 7 questions. One set of questions is questions are completed until the benefit provisions of completed for each covered expense, or group of all covered expenses have been described. covered expenses, with identical deductible, coin-

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91 155 Senator SARBANES. At some point we may want to do a hearing or part of a hearing on that. I'm a little concerned that one of the things that's happening is that while there are a lot of temporary jobs and a lot of special service organizations that provide workers being created, a result is that people do not have a traditional benefit program. They may have a job and they may be working often, according to the study that the JEC has released, but at a lower income job. A lot of the new jobs being created are at the lower end of the income scale, disproportionately so from a past comparison; but in addition, these jobs often don't carry with them the typical benefit package. People aren't covered on insurance. They aren't covered on health care. They aren't covered on vacations. Do we survey vacations as part of the benefit package? Mr. STELLUTO. Yes, holidays and vacations. Senator SARBANES. It's interesting that a lot of the European countries by law mandate 3, 4, and even 5 weeks of paid vacation for all workers Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. Senator SARBANES. In other words, if you're a worker in that society, you get a 4- or 5-week paid vacation time. We have nothing like that in this country when we compare the total compensation package. Mrs. NORWOOD. We do have an industry wage survey of the tem-. porary help industry underway, so we should have some data on what is going on-some more data on what is going on in that area. Senator MELCHER. Mr. Chairman, I'm assuming that most of the 5.5 million people that are hired, including these two youngsters in their mid-20's of my friend in Montana, working 20 to 30 hours a week, are hired specifically at less than full time, less than 40 hours, so the employer is saved from the responsibility of any portion of the health care insurance and any vacation time. That's his assumption. That's my assumption. Do you have anything or do you try to find out whether that's true? Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, we hope to have more hard information on that. I know there are lot of assumptions. There may be some quite valid. I just have nothing to add to that. We are doing a survey of the temporary help industry and we hope to have more information on their earnings. Senator MELCHER. Well, there would be no advantage to a retail outlet, when there are applications for the jobs at more than a ratio of 3 or 4 to 1-there would be absolutely no advantage for the retail outlet to put people on at 20 or 30 hours unless they are going to make some savings. Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, given the schedules of hours, weekends, evenings, and so on, there may be some use of less than a full workweek for those purposes, but you may be quite right. I just don't have anything on that. Senator SARBANES. Isn't it a reasonable working hypothesis that most of the people, if not all, on part-time employment probably are not getting any benefit package or very little? Mrs. NORWOOD. That may be. We just don't have any information on that.

79-018 0 - 88 - 6 156

Senator SARBANES. Isn't it the case that a fair number of people employed full-time do not get a benefit package? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. They all get legally required benefits, but the other benefits are different from establishment to establishment. Senator SARBANES. Hasn't there been a significant increase in the number of people who are working but are working in a temporary classification rather than a permanent classification? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes, that's right. Senator SARBANES. Has there not been a significant increase in the number of those people? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes, that's right. That would affect especially pension rights and plans, apart from other fringe benefits. Senator SARBANES. That's another dimension that we didn't even bring up, but it's also very important. I guess I have a growing concern that employment opportunities are being shaped in such a way that while people are being counted as working, and therefore, don't show up in the unemployment figures that we review with you here, something very different is happening below the surface. We have developed a bit this morning what's happening with respect to the part-time employed for economic reasons. If they were factored in we would be talking about a 9.2 percent unemployment rate; and then if we take the discouraged workers and add them in, we're talking about 10.2 percent. But then beyond that-and I gather we are just beginning to explore this area-is the question of whether we are getting a change so that while people are osten- sibly working full time, it means less than perhaps in the past because they don't get health insurance, life insurance, vacation, and they don't get a pension. In a sense they're working and we tend to think doing all right, but beneath the surface it really isn't. The whole compensation package is being shrunk radically with respect to those people. That's something we can perhaps think about pursuing in a very direct way. Commissioner, we want to thank you for, as usual, a very professional presentation. Thank you very much. Mrs. NORWOOD. Thank you, Senator. Senator SARBANES. The committee stands adjourned. [Whereupon, at 11 a.m., the committee adjourned, subject to the call of the Chair.] EMPLOYMENT-UNEMPLOYMENT

FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 6, 1987

CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES, JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITrEE, Washington, DC. The committee met, pursuant to notice, at 9:40 a.m., in room SD- 628, Dirksen Senate Office Building, Hon. Paul S. Sarbanes (chairman of the committee) presiding. Present: Senators Sarbanes and Melcher. Also present: William R. Buechner and Dena Stoner, professional staff members. OPENING STATEMENT OF SENATOR SARBANES, CHAIRMAN Senator SARBANES. The committee will come to order. Today the Joint Economic Committee continues its monthly hearings on the employment and unemployment situation with the release this morning of the figures for January 1987. We are pleased, of course, to welcome Janet Norwood, the Commissioner of Labor Statistics. Before turning to the January unemployment figures, I would like to express some concern about the figures on productivity for the fourth quarter of 1986 and for the year as a whole which the BLS released last week. In the fourth quarter of last year, productivity in the nonfarm business sector fell at an annual rate of 1.7 percent, while manufacturing productivity-which had shown significant improvement in recent months-rose only 0.2 percent. Even if these figures are revised when the revised GNP figures are published, they will still be very low. For 1986 as a whole, nonfarm productivity rose 0.7 percent, following an increase of only 0.5 percent in 1985. While manufacturing productivity grew at a healthier rate-up 2.7 percent in 1986- it remained below average by the standards of the past 3 years. And, Commissioner, after we finish with the unemployment figures, you may want to just discuss those productivity figures a bit. Turning to the January unemployment figures, today's news is somewhat more encouraging. The economy apparently created 375,000 jobs in January, after seasonal adjustment. The civilian unemployment rate remained at the 6.7 percent set in December, although the number of people unemployed rose by 75,000. Apparent- ly all of the jobs created in January were in service-producing industries and construction, with no new jobs in manufacturing, and you may want to address that at some point in your presentation. The committee will now turn to Commissioner Norwood for her analysis of the January figures. (157) 158 STATEMENT OF HON. JANET L. NORWOOD, COMMISSIONER, BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR, AC- COMPANIED BY THOMAS J. PLEWES, ASSOCIATE COMMISSION- ER, OFFICE OF EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT STATIS- TICS; AND KENNETH V. DALTON, ASSOCIATE COMMISSIONER, OFFICE OF PRICES AND LIVING CONDITIONS Mrs. NORWOOD. Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman. Kenneth Dalton is on my right and Tom Plewes is on my left. Senator SARBANES. Familiar figures, Commissioner. Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. It's always good to have people with you who know the data. We are all very pleased to be here, as always. In January, both employment and the labor force rose, after adjustment for seasonality. Unemployment, at 6.6 percent overall and 6.7 percent for civilians, was unchanged, sustaining the improvement of December. As you know, winter weather conditions in construction and other outdoor activities, and the end of holiday shopping in retail trade and services, usually result in employment cutbacks and unemployment increases in January. This year, the employment declines were much less than usual, making the seasonally adjusted data quite positive. Payroll jobs, as measured by the business survey, were up by 450,000 after seasonal adjustment. Construction activity was more vigorous than usual, in part reflecting favorable weather conditions and the surge of building permits that occurred at the end of last year. After several months of nongrowth, construction employment rose by 140,000 in January. Employment in manufacturing, which had grown by 80,000 in the last quarter of last year, was unchanged in January. Although small gains occurred in lumber, printing, and chemical manufacturing after seasonal adjustment, small job losses in many other manufacturing industries offset these gains. Nevertheless, weekly factory hours, at 40.9, continued at a high level. As a result, the index of aggregate weekly factory hours rose by 0.5 percent over the month. As has been the case during most of the current recovery period, a large part of the payroll growth in January was in the service- producing sector. Employment in retail trade grew by 165,000 after seasonal adjustment. Fewer workers had been hired during the holiday selling season, and layoffs in the industry, were, therefore, much smaller than usual. Business and health services continued to push up employment in the services industry, and gains occurred in finance, insurance, and real estate. Over the past year, employment in retail trade has risen more than 600,000, jobs in services were up 1.1 million, and employment in finance, insurance, and real estate grew by nearly 400,000. Total civilian employment, as measured by the household survey, rose by 375,000 after seasonal adjustment, as the overall employment-population ratio hit 61.1 percent. About 200,000 of this increase was among adult women; their employment has risen 1.3 million since last January, accounting for more than 60 percent of the gain in civilian employment over the year. 159 The civilian labor force advanced by 450,000 in January after seasonal adjustment, bringing the total change over the year to almost 2.3 million. Adult women accounted for more than half of the increase; their labor force participation rate rose by nearly a full percentage point over the year. A substantial labor force increase also occurred among the Hispanic population. Since January a year ago, their labor force participation rate has risen about 2.5 percentage points. The number of unemployed workers remained at 8 million in January. Little change occurred over the month among the major worker groups. The present economic expansion reached its 50th month in Janu- ary. As is typical following a recession as steep as that of 1981-82, improvements in the labor market were very strong during the early part of the recovery period; labor market change has been much slower in the last 2 years. When we compare the current recovery to the 50 months following the 1973-75 recession, some interesting differences become apparent. In both periods, a large number of jobs were added, but in the recovery period of the late 1970's the number of factory jobs created was more than double that of the current recovery. As we have discussed before, labor force growth has been considerably smaller in the current recovery than in the earlier period. Employ- ment growth has been higher only for the black population. The unemployment rate has come down somewhat more sharply in the current recovery but remains a full percentage point higher than in May 1979, the 50th month of recovery after the 1973-75 recession. In summary, the data for January show weakness in manufacturing but strength elsewhere in the economy. The data sustain the December decline in unemployment, although the number of jobless persons remains at 8 million. Since my last appearance here before this committee, Mr. Chair- man, the Bureau has issued its reports on consumer prices for De- cember and international prices for the fourth quarter of 1986. I would like to say just a few things about those data. The year 1986 saw three important trends in import prices. First, fuel imports, primarily crude petroleum, registered substantial price decreases during the year and, despite an upturn during the fourth quarter, were down about 50 percent from their levels of a year earlier. Second, prices of goods imported primarily from industrial countries whose currencies have strengthened against the dollar, have risen substantially-anywhere from 10 to 22 percent. And third, trade categories affected by increasing competition from countries whose currencies are tied to the dollar have shown much smaller price increases. As we discussed earlier this year, noticeable increases in nonen- ergy import prices began in the fourth quarter of 1985. For all of 1986, import prices, excluding fuels, rose 8.4 percent. During the fourth quarter of 1986, however, these price increases slowed to 0.6 percent, the smallest one-quarter rise in this index since the third quarter of 1985. While the relatively small size of this increase is perhaps puzzling, it took place in a period when the dollar demonstrated little movement. The recent steep decline in the dollar 160 began after price data for the fourth quarter import indexes had been collected. Meanwhile, for the third year in a row, the average price of U.S. exports moved down. Despite an increase of 1.2 percent during the fourth quarter, the average price in exports declined 0.5 percent in 1986. When the decline in the trading value of the dollar is factored in, the price of our exports in foreign currency terms has, of course, gone down even more. But it does seem that this price decline has not as yet led to any significant rise in the total value of U.S. exports. In the area of consumer prices, the CPI-U advanced 1.1 percent for the 12-month period ended in December 1986. This compares with increases of about 4 percent in each of the preceding 4 years and was the smallest annual increase since a 0.7 percent rise in 1961. The sharp drop in energy prices-in particular, petroleum- based energy-was almost entirely responsible for the deceleration in the overall index in 1986. Excluding energy, the CPI-U rose 3.8 percent during 1986, compared with increases of 4.0 to 4.5 percent in each of the prior 4 years. The release of data for December really marks the last release of data for the CPI based on the old market basket. It has been our custom to discuss with the Joint Economic Committee any changes in our indicators. I will not take your time to read the material that is here. I just want to say that we expect to introduce an updated and revised CPI for January on February 27. We have been working very hard on this for several years now and we very much look forward to issuing the improved and updated CPI which will have its market basket based upon expenditure data from 1982, 1983, and 1984. We will have a completely new and expanded and improved housing sample which will improve the home ownership costs component of the index, and there will be a number of other important changes. Now we will be happy to try to answer any questions you may have. [The prepared statement of Mrs. Norwood, together with an attached table and the Employment Situation press release, follows:] 161

FOR RELEASE: 9:30 A.M.,E.S.T. FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 6, 1987

Advance copies of this statement are made available to the press with the explicit understanding that, prior to the 8:30 a.m. Eastern time: (1) Wire services will not move over their wires copy based on information in this statement, (2) electronic media will not feed such information to member stations, and (3) representatives of news organizations will not contact anyone outside the Bureau of Labor Statistics to ask questions about or solici Icomments about information in this statement.

Prepared Statement of

Dr. Janet L. Norwood Commissioner Bureau of Labor Statistics

before the

Joint Economic Committee UNITED STATES CONGRESS

February 6, 1987

Mr. Chairman and Members of the Committee:

I am very pleased to be here this morning to offer the-

Joint Economic Committee a few comments to supplement the

Employment Situation.

In January, both employment and the labor force rose, after adjustment for seasonality. Unemployment -- at 6.6 percent overall and 6.7 percent for civilians -- was unchanged, sustaining the improvement that occurred in

December. 162

As you know, winter weather conditions in construction and other outdoor activities, and the end of holiday shopping in retail trade and services, usually result in employment cutbacks and unemployment increases in January.

This year, the employment declines were much less than usual, making the seasonally adjusted data quite positive.

Payroll jobs, as measured by the business survey, were up by 450,000 after seasonal adjustment. Construction activity was more vigorous than usual, in part reflecting favorable weather conditions and the surge in building permits that occurred at the end of last year. After several months of non-growth, construction employment rose by 140,000 in January (seasonally adjusted).

Employment in manufacturing, which had grown by 80,000 in the last quarter of last year, was unchanged in January.

Although small gains occurred in lumber, printing, and chemical manufacturing after seasonal adjustment, small job losses in many other manufacturing industries offset these gains. Nevertheless, weekly factory hours, at 40.9, continued at a very high level. As a result, the index of aggregate weekly factory hours rose by 0.5 percent over the month.

As has been the case during most of the current recovery period, a large part of the seasonally adjusted payroll growth in January was in the service-producing sector. Employment in retail trade grew by 165,000 after seasonal adjustment. Fewer workers had been hired during 163 the holiday selling season, and layoffs in the industry were therefore much smaller than usual. Business and health services continued to push up employment in the services industry, and gains occurred in finance, insurance and real estate. Over the past year, employment in retail trade has risen more than 600,000, jobs in services were up 1.1 million, and employment in finance, insurance and real estate grew by nearly 400,000.

Total civilian employment, as measured by the household survey, rose by 375,000 after seasonal adjustment, as the overall employment-population ratio hit 61.1 percent. About

200,000 of this increase was among adult women; their employment has risen 1.3 million since last January, accounting for more than 60 percent of the gain in civilian employment over the year.

The civilian labor force advanced by 450,000 in January after seasonal adjustment, bringing the total change over the year to almost 2.3 million. Adult women accounted for more than half of the increase; their labor force participation rate rose by nearly a full percentage point over the year. A substantial labor force increase also occurred among the Hispanic population. Since January a year ago, their labor force participation rate has risen about 2-1/2 percentage points.

The number of unemployed workers remained at 8 million in January (after seasonal adjustment). Little change occurred over the month among the major worker groups. 164

The present economic expansion reached its fiftieth month in January. As is typical following a recession as steep as that of 1981-82, improvements in the labor market were very strong during the early part of the recovery period; labor market change has been much slower in the last 2 years.

When we compare the current recovery to the 50 months following the 1973-75 recession, some interesting differences become apparent. In both periods, a large number of jobs were added, but in the recovery period of the late 1970's the number of factory jobs created was more than double that of the current recovery. As we have discussed before, labor force growth has been considerably smaller in the current recovery than in the earlier period. Employment growth has been higher only for the black population. The unemployment rate has come down somewhat more sharply in the current recovery but remains a full percentage point higher than in May 1979, the fiftieth month of recovery after the 1973-75 recession.

In summary, the data for January show weakness in manufacturing but strength elsewhere in the economy. The data sustain the December decline in unemployment, although the number of jobless persons remains at 8 million. 165

Prices

Since my last appearance before this Committee, the

Bureau has issued its reports on Consumer Prices for

December and International Prices for the fourth quarter of

1986. I would like to take a moment to summarize these data briefly.

The year 1986 saw three important trends in import prices. First, fuel imports, primarily crude petroleum, registered substantial price decreases during the year and, despite an upturn during the fourth quarter, were down about

50 percent from their levels of a year earlier. Second, prices of goods imported primarily from industrial countries whose currencies have strengthened against the dollar, have risen substantially, -- from 10 percent to 22 percent. And third, trade categories affected by increasing competition from countries whose currencies are tied to the dollar, have shown much smaller price increases.

As I indicated earlier this year, noticeable increases in non-energy import prices began in the fourth quarter of

1985, a development which coincided with the Group of Five

Finance Ministers' meeting and the subsequent sharp decline in the trading value of the dollar. For all of 1986, import prices, excluding fuels, rose 8.4 percent. During the fourth quarter of 1986, however, these price increases slowed to 0.6 percent, the smallest one-quarter rise in this index since the third quarter of 1985. While the relatively small size of this increase is perhaps puzzling, it took 166 place in a period when the dollar demonstrated little movement. The recent steep decline in the dollar began after price data for the fourth quarter import indexes had been collected.

Meanwhile, for the third year in a row, the average price of U.S. exports moved down. Despite an increase of

1.2 percent during the fourth quarter, the average price of exports declined 0.5 percent in 1986. When the decline in the trading value of the dollar is factored in, the price of our exports in foreign currency terms has, of course, gone down even more for some of our trading partners. It would seem, however, that this price decline has not as yet led to any significant rise in the total value of U.S. exports.

In the area of consumer prices, the CPI-U advanced 1.1 percent for the 12-month period ended in December 1986.

This compares with increases of about 4 percent in each of the preceding 4 years and was the smallest annual increase since a 0.7 percent rise in 1961. The sharp drop in energy prices--in particular, petroleum based energy--was almost entirely responsible for the deceleration in the overall index in 1986. Excluding energy, the CPI-U rose 3.8 percent during 1986, compared with increases of 4.0 to 4.5 percent in each of the prior 4 years. The food index accelerated somewhat in 1986, reflecting an upturn in meat and poultry prices. On the other hand, shelter costs rose somewhat less in 1986. Excluding food, shelter, and energy, the CPI-U rose at a modest pace in 1986. Within this group of items, 167 charges for services remained in the 5 to 6 percent range while, in contrast, prices of goods rose only 1.4 percent.

In particular, costs for medical care services, automobile insurance, and tuition continued to advance sharply in 1986.

The release of the December 1986 figures on the

Consumer Price Index marked the last release of data before introduction of an updated and revised CPI for January on

February 27. The last major revision of the CPI, in 1978, moved the market basket to goods and services purchased by consumers in 1972-73. Since then, Americans have changed substantially the things they buy and the way they live.

The CPI is being updated to reflect these changes.

After the revision, both the CPI-U and CPI-W will have expenditure weights based upon data tabulated from 3 years

(1982, 1983, and 1984) of Consumer Expenditure Surveys. In addition to expenditure shifts among existing goods and services, products such as personal computers, and compact disc stereo equipment, which were not available for pricing in 1972-73, will be introduced into the index.

The January index will also reflect a more current geographic distribution of consumers. Expenditure patterns of consumers in the South and West will have a larger influence on the CPI than before. The January CPI will also improve the rental equivalence measure used to measure homeownership costs. In addition, other technical improvements will be made over the next 2 years. 168

As in the past, BLS will publish an old series CPI based on the old market basket for a 6-month overlap period to provide index users ample time to adjust to the new index. We have spent a good deal of time over the past several years on the CPI revision effort, including a public information effort to inform interested parties of the nature, purpose and scope of the program. We very much look forward to issuing the improved and updated CPI.

My colleagues and I will now be happy to answer any questions you may have. Unemployment rates of all civilian workers by alternative seasonal adjustment methods

______X-11 ARIKA method X-11 method Month Unad- Concurrent (official Range and justed Official (as first Concurrent Stable Total Residual method (cols. year rate rocedure computed) (revised) I before 1980) 2-8) (1) 2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

1986

January..... 7.3 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.7 .2 February.... .8 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.3 .1 March ...... 7.5 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 .1 April ...... 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 .1 May ...... 7.0 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 - June ...... 7.3 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 - July ...... 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 6.9 7.0 7.0 .1 August ...... 6.7 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.9 7.0 6.8 .2 September... 6.8 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 - October ..... 6.6 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.9 7.0 .1 November.... 6.6 6.9 6.9 7.0 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.0 .1 December.... 6.3 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.7 .1

1987

January....7.3 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.7 .

SOURCE: U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Bureau of Labor Statistics February 1987 170

(1) Unadjusted rate. Unemploy.nent rare for a11 civ"Ilan workers, not seasonally adjusted. (2) Official procedure (I-Il ARIMAmethod). The published seasonally adjusted rare for all civilian warskers Each of the 3 major civilian labor force compooents--agricoltural employment, nonagricultural employment and unemployment-for 4 age-sen groups-males and females, ages 16-19 and 20 years and over-are seaaonally adjusted independeotly using data from January 1975 forward. The data series for each of these 12 components are entended by a year at each cnd of the original series using ARIMA (Autn-pegressive Integrated, Moving Average) models chosen specifically for each series Each extended series is then seasonally adjusted with the. -Il portion of the X-li ARIMAprograw. The 4 teenage unemployment and nonagricultural employment components are adjusted with the additive adjustment model while the other components are adjusted with the multiplicative model. The unemployment rate is computed by summing the 4 seasonally adjusted unemployment components and calculating that total ma a percent of the civilian labor force total derived by summing a11 12 seasonally adjusted components. All the seasonally adjusted series are revised at the end of each year. Extrapolated factors for January-June are computed at the beginning of each year; extrapolated factors for July-December are computed In the middle of the year after the June data become available. Each set of 6-month factors are published in advance, in the January and July issuis, respectively, of Employment and Earnings.

(3) Concurrent (as first computed X-li A.I.A method). The official procedure for computation of the rate for all civilian workers using the 12 components is followed except that extrapolated factors are not used at all. Each component is seasonally adjusted with the X-il ARIMAprogram each month as the moat recent data become available, ates for each month of the current year are shown as first computed; they are revised only once each year, at the end of the year when data for the full year become available. For example, the rate for January 1985 would be based, during 1985, on the adjustment of data from the period January 1975 through January 1985.

(4) Concurrent (revised. X--l ARIIMAmethod). The procedure used Is Identical to (3) above, and the rate for the current month (the last month displayed) will always be the same in the two columns. However, all previous months are subject to revision each month based on the seasonal adjustment of all the components with data through the current month.

(5) Stable (X-1l ARIMAmethod). Each of the 12 civilian labor force components is extended using ARIMAmodels as In the official procedure and then run through the X-Il part of the program using the stable option. This option assumes that seasonal patterns are basically constant from year-to-year and computes final seasonal factors as unweighted averages of all the seasonal-Irregular components for each month across the entire span of the period adjusted. As In the official procedure, factors are extrapolated In 6-onth intervals and the series are revised at the end of each year. The procedure for computation of the rate from the seasonally adjusted components is also identical to the official procedure.

(6) Total (X-Il ARIIMAmethod). This is one alternative aggregation procedure, In which total unemployment and civilianlabor force levels are extended with ARIMAmodels and directly adjusted with multiplicative adjustment models In the X-il part of the progrom. The rate Is computed by taking seasonally adjusted total unemployment as a percent of seasonally adjusted total civilian labor force. Factors are extrapolated in -month Intervals and the series revised at the end of each year.

(7) Residual (X-il ARIMAmethod). This is another alternative Aggregation method, In which total civilian employment and civilian labor force levels are extended using ARIMA models and then directly adjusted with multiplicative adjustment models. The seasonally adjusted unemployment level Is derived by subtracting seasonally adjusted employment from seasonally adjusted labor force. The rate is then computed by taking the derived unemployment level as a percent of the labor force level. Factors are extrapolated in 6-month Intervals and the series revised at the end of each year.

(8) X-il method (official method before 1980). The method for computation of the official procedure is used except that the series are not extended with ARtIA models and the factors are projected in 12-onth intervals. The standard X-li program is used to perform the seasonal adjustment.

Methods of Adjustment: The X-li ARIMAmethod was developed at Statistics Canada by the Seasonal adjustment and Tines Series Staff under the direction of Estels Bee Dagum. The method Is described In The X-li ARIMASeasonal Adjustment Method, by Estels Bee Dagu, Statistics Canada Catalogue No. 12-564E, February 1980.

The standard K-il method is described in X-il Variant of the Censaus Method IC Seasonal Adjustment Prorra, by Julius Shlskin, Allan Young and John Mungrave (Technical Paper No. 15, Bureau of the Census, 1967). 171

United States Department |M ews ~~~~ofLabor < Bureau of Labor Statistics Washington, D.C. 20212

Technical information: (202) 523-1371 USDL 87-50 523-1944 523-1959 TRANSMISSION OF MATERIAL IN THIS Media contact: 523-1913 RELEASE IS EMBARGOEDUNTIL 8:30 A.M. (EST), FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 6, 1987

THE EMPLOYMENTSITUATION: JANUARY 1987

Employment continued to rise in January and unemployment was unchanged, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The overall unemployment rate of 6.6 percent and the civilian worker rate of 6.7 percent remained at the levels to which they had declined in December.

Nonagricultural payroll employment--as measured by the monthly survey of business establishments--rose by 450,000, and civilian employment--as measured by the monthly survey of households--advanced by 375,000. Both surveys continued to show over-the-year employment gains in excess of 2 million.

Unemployment (Household Survey Data)

The number of unemployed persons (seasonally adjusted) was about unchanged in January at 8.0 million, as were the jobless rates for nearly all major labor force groups. The rates for adult men (6.0 percent), adult women (5.9 percent), teenagers (17.7 percent), whites (5.9 percent), blacks (14.3 percent), and Hispanics (10.6 percent) showed little or no change from December. (See tables A-2 and A-3.)

There were also few changes in the distribution of unemployment by duration in January, and the mean and median duration figures remained at 15.0 and 7.0 weeks, respectively. The numbers of unemployed job losers and labor force entrants also were little different from December levels. (See tables A-7 and A-8.)

Civilian Employment and the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)

Civilian employment, which usually declines substantially from December to January, fell less than seasonally expected this January. As a result, employment showed a seasonally adjusted increase of 375,000, and the proportion of the civilian population that is employed rose to a very high 61.1 percent. (See tables A-2 and A-4.)

The civilian labor force expanded by 450,000 to 119.0 million in January, after seasonal adjustment. Over the year, the labor force was up 172

by 2.3 million, with adult women accounting for 55 percent of the gain. The civilian labor force participation rate increased to 65.5 percent.

Industry Payroll Employment (Establishment Survey Data)

Total nonagricultural payroll employment rose by 450,000 in January, after adjustment for seasonality, to 101.7 million. Over-the-month

Table A. Major indicators of labor market activity, seasonally adjusted

Quarterly Monthly data averages Category Dec.- 1986 1986 1987 Jan. change III IV Nov. Dec. Jan. _ HOUSEHOLD DATA I ~ ~ ~ Thuad n--f rwr- n Labor force 1/...... 119,866 120,308 120,426 120,336 120,782 446 Total employment 1/.. 111,675 112,170 112,183 112,387 112,759 372 Civilian labor force... 118,171 118,558 118,675 118,586 119,034 448 Civilian employment.. 109,980 110,420 110,432 110,637 111,011 374 Unemployment...... 8,191 8,138 8,243 7,949 8,023 74 Not in labor force..... 62,664 62,807 62,688 62,961 62.793 -168 Discouraged workers.. 1,150 1,127 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.

Percent of labor force Unemployment rates: All workers 1/ ...... 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.6 6.6 0 All civilian workers. 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.7 6.7 0 Adult men...... 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.0 6.0 0 Adult women...... 6.1 6.0 6.1 5.9 5.9 0 Teenagers...... 18.1 17.8 18.2 17.3 17.7 0.4 White ...... 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.8 5.9 .1 Black...... 14.5 14.1 14.2 13.7 14.3 .6 Hispanic origin.... 10.8 10.2 9.6 10.5 10.6 .1

ESTABLISHMENT DATA Thous nds of lobs 7 4 4 4 8 Nonfarm employment..... 100,3161pll0,062 101,068 p1O1,293 pll, 1 p 2 4 8 9 2 4 9 2 2 0 5 4 1 3 4 Goods-producing ...... 24,8721 p . 24,891 p2 , 0 p 5, p 7 6 1 7 0 7 6 3 7 3 7 6 6 8 7 4 Service-producing.... 75,444 p , 76,177 p , p , p31

Hours of work Average weekly hours: 3 4 7 3 4 6 4 p3 .7 pO.I Total private...... 34.7 p4 0 .8 34.8 p4 . 9 1 Manufacturing...... 40.7 p . 40.8 p 0.8 p40. P. 3 1 Overtime...... 3.5 p3.5 3.5 p3.5 p .6 P.

1/ Includes the resident Armed Forces. N.A. -not available. p-preliminary. 173

increases occurred in 56 percent of the 185 industries in the BLS index of diffusion. (See tables B-1 and 8-6.)

In the service-producing sector, after seasonal adjustment, large job gains were registered in retail trade--165,000--and the services industry--115,000. Retail employment typically declines in January following the end of the holiday shopping season. However, because pre-Christmas hiring this season was less than in the past, post-holiday job cutbacks were smaller than usual, resulting in a sharp increase in retail trade employment after seasonal adjustment. Employment also increased In the wholesale trade and finance, insurance, and real estate industry, while it was little changed in transportation and public utilities and government.

Within the goods sector, employment in construction also declined less than usually expected in January and, after seasonal adjustment, rose by 140,000. Manufacturing employment was unchanged in January, after edging up in each of the previous 3 months. Changes were small and offsetting among the 21 industries within manufacturing. Employment in mining, which has been particularly weak since the beginning of 1986, declined further over the month.

Weekly Hours (Establishment Survey Data)

Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls edged up 0.1 hour to 34.7, after seasonal adjustment. In manufacturing, both the workweek and overtime hours rose a tenth of an hour, reaching the relatively high levels of 40.9 and 3.6 hours, respectively. (See table B-2.)

The index of aggregate weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls rose by 0.7 percent to 119.8 (1977-100), after seasonal adjustment. The factory index rose by 0.5 percent to 93.8. (See table B-5.)

Hourly and Weekly Earnings (Establishment Survey Data)

Average hourly earnings were about unchanged in January; while average weekly earnings rose 0.4 percent, seasonally adjusted. Prior to seasonal adjustment, average hourly earnings increased 5 cents to $8.88, but, owing to a seasonal decline in the workweek, average weekly earnings were down $2.70 to $305.47. Over the past year, average hourly earnings have risen by 16 cents, and average weekly earnings were up S2.89. (See table B-3.)

The Hourly Earnings Index (Establishment Survey Data)

The Hourly Earnings Index (HEI) was 170.8 (1977-100) in January, seasonally adjusted, an increase of 0.1 percent from December. For the 12 months ended in January, the increase was 2.0 percent. The HEI excludes the effects of two types of changes unrelated to underlying -age rate movements--fluctuations in manufactmmring overtime and interindustry 174

employment shifts. In dollars of constant purchasing power, the HEI increased 1.0 percent during the 12-month period ended in December. (See table B-4.)

The Employment Situation for February 1987 will be released on Friday, March 6, at 8:30 A.H. (EST). 175

Explanatory Note

Coverage, definitions, and differences TThe hooshold suvey hasno dvphcatlo. ot indvidu-l. bhr. se achin- between surveys dividual is countedonly onm.in the etahbiihw-e rayer, employeesworking at The sample households in the household survey are selected osethan one job ornenwan arynanegon mo. thea one payrox waId be couvted sepratly for eachsppr-ence. to as to reflect the entire civilian noninstitutional population 16 years of age and older. Each person in a household is Other differences between the two surveys are described in classified as employed, unemployed, or not in the labor force. "Comparing Employment Estimates from Household and Those who hold more than onejob are classified according to Payroll Surveys," which may be obtained from the BLS upon the job at which they worked the most hours. request. People are classified as employed if they did any work at all as paid civilians; worked in their own business or profession or Seasonal adjustment on their own farm; or worked 15 hours or more in an enter- Over the course of a year, the size of the Nation's labor prise operated by a member of their family, whether they were force and the levels of employment and unemployment paid or not. People we also counted as employed if they were undergo sharp fluctuations due to such seasonal events as on unpaid leave becauseof illness, bad weather, disputes be- changes in weather, reduced or expanded production, har- tween labor and management, or personal reasons.Members vests, major holidays, and the opening and closing of schools. of the Armed Forcesstationed in the United Statesare also in- For example, the labor force increases by a large number each cluded in the employed total. June, when schools close and many young people enter the job People are classified as unemployed, regardless of their market. The effect of such seasonal variation can be very eligibility for unemployment benefits or public assistance,if large; over the course of a year, for example, seasonality may they meet all of the following criteria: They had no employ- account for as much as 95 percent of the month-,o-month ment during the survey week; they wereavailable for work at changes in unemployment. 176

The chancesare approx- Becausethese seasonal events follow a more or lessregular from the results of a complete census. estimate basedon the sample will pattern each year. their influence on statistical trends can be imately 90 out of 100that an from the eliminated by adjusting the statistics from month to month. differ by no more than 1.6 times the standard error the 90-percent Theseadjustments make nonseasonal developments. such as results of a complete census.At approximately confidence limits usedby BLSin its declines in economic activity or increasesin the participation level of confidentce-the for the monthly change in total employ- of women in the labor force, easierto spot. To return to the analyses-the error for total school's-out example, the large number ofpeople entering the ment is on the order of plus or minus 328.000; for the overall unemploy- labor force eachJune is likely to obscure any other changes unemployment it is 220,000; and, These figures do not that havetaken place sinceMay. making it difficult to deter- ment rate, it is 0.19 percentage point. magnitudes but. mine if the level of economic activity has risen or declined. meanthat the sample results are off by these of 100that However, becausethe effect of students finishing school in rather, that the chances are approximately 90 out not be expected to differ from previous years is known, the statistics for the current year can the "true" level or rate would amounts. be adjusted to allow for a comparable change. Insofar asthe the estimates by more than these seasonaladjustment is made correctly, the adjusted figure pro- Sampling errors for monthly surveys are reduced when the vides a more useful tool with which to analyze changesin data are cumulated for several months, such as quarterly or economic activity. annually. Also, asa general rule, the smaller the estimate, the the Measuresof labor force, employment, and unemployment larger the sampling error. Therefore, relatively speaking, contain components such as age and sex. Statistics for all estimate of the sizeof the labor force is subject to lesserror among employees, production workers, averageweekly hours, and than is the estimate of the number unemployed. And, jobless rate of averagehourly earnings include components based on the the unemployed, the sampling error for the than is the error for employer's industry. Ag thesestatistics can be seasonally ad- adult men, for example, is much smaller justed either by adjusting the total or by adjusting eachof the the jobless rate of teenagers. Specifically, the error on monthly for components and combining them. The second procedure change in the jobless rate for men is .26percentage point; usually yields more accurate information and is therefore teenagers,itis 1.25 percentage points. followed by BLS.For example, the seasonally adjusted figure In the establishment survey, estimatesfor the 2 most current for the labor force is the sum of eight seasonally adjusted months are basedon incomplete returns; for this reason,these civilian employment components, plus the resident Armed estimates are labeled preliminary in the tables. When all the Forcestotal (not adjusted for seasonality), and four seasonally returns in the sample have been received, the estimates are adjusted unemployment components; the total for unemploy- revised. In other words, data for the month of September are ment is the sum of the four unemployment components; and published in preliminary form in October and November and the overall unemployment rate is derived by dividing the in final form in December. To remove errors that build up resulting estimate of total unemployment by the estimate of over time, a comprehensive count of the employed is con- the labor force. ducted each year. The results of this survey are used to The numerical factors used to make the seasonalad- establish new benchmarks-comprehensive counts of justments are recalculated regularly. For the household employment-against which month-to-month changescan be survey, the factors are calculated for the January-June period measured. The new benchmarks also incorporate changesin and again for the July-December period. As the time the first the classification of industries and allow for the formation of half year's factors are calculated (upon availability of data for new establishments. December). historical data for the previous 5-year period are subject to revision. For the establishment survey, updated fac- statIstics and other Information tors for seasonaladjustment are calculated only once a year, Additional of the Nation's employ- along with the introduction of new benchmarks which are In order to provide a broad view discussedas the endof the next section. ment situation. BLSregularly publishes a wide variety of data in this newsrelease. More comprehensive statistics arecontain- Sampling variability ed in Employment and Earnings, published each month by per year from Statistics basedon the household and establishment surveys BLs. it is available for S4.50per issueor $31.00 Office, Washington, D.C.. are subject to sampling error, that is, the estimate of the the U.S. Government Printing the Superinten- number of people employed and the other estimates drawn 20204.A check or money order made out to from thesesurveys probably differ from the figures that would dent of Documents must accompany all orders. be obtained from a complete census,even if the samequestion- Employment and Earnings also provides approximations of nairesand procedures wereused. In the household survey, the the standard errors for the household survey data published in amount of the differences can be expressedin terms of stand- this release. For unemployment and other labor force ard errors. The numerical value of a standard error depends categories, the standard errors appear in tables B through J of upon the sizeof the sample, the results of the survey, and other its "Explanatory Notes." Measures of the reliability of the factors. However, the numerical value is always such that the data drawn from the establishment survey and the actual chancesare approximately 68 out of 100that an estimate based amounts of revision due to benchmark adjustments are pro- on the sample will differ by no more than the standard error vided in tables M, 0, P, and Q of that publication. 177

HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEIOLD DATA TableA-1. Leploymed stut t e popubtlon, I _OM And Fon in the USIlS , by aex

s._--- - -

S _ .I ...... _ . J . 0 . J . 0 3. C. O . D...C. .98. 198. I987 190. 19.. 1... 198I 198 .193.

9301333lolulnulb llo .33?56 183.297 '83,575 181.,33$ 182.7131 92.93518D.114Ia8D.29713.s79 L9303C8 . 11a7. 22 ''.CPP 119.451 110.495 1 19.938 120.133 123.423 120.333120.732 PoFlo rll83e 34.3 35.4 35.1 33~0 5.7 35.7 38.8 35 7 37.3 CDI181D1D90 38.050 1 12.33 1t0.932 13.383 I II .703 111s.941 II72.183i 112.D8D 1t2.759

n3191DD977399 0395 1~10 .583 109 .84 08,892 103.o87 110.192o ' |z0.432 11s0.337111 .374 A l u n .:17 2.919 2.823 2.705 3.280 8.142 3.130 3.215 D.isi 3.145 NOlra~lll lll 104.40 107.737 103.079103.312103 .045 107.333 187.217 107.373 107.933 07881383792 d._ .n ...... 9.472 7.431 8,32D 7.902 8.295 0.222 0.24D 7.949 8.DZi 1301 loliooaoo '4.237 33 s.498 34.14i 32 873 2 .7i*25,277 237.383 32.'3s142, 79

N ,. '5...... 833 50 3 8 33.3 3.128 37 37.407 37 425 37. 2

.l0 T ...... 3...7 . ....538 31.028 32. 32..93 E1703409191881.8093104381s430,59 13. 71.2 73. 71.8 71. 7147.3 7 U010b8 9170D9 5.44 3e0.973 30.23 7 30.853 30.739 30.975 31.2413*1 .393 31.59 010098079 4.1 3.48 5,052Z 4.275 4.,30 4.535 3.874 4.4374,484

7 3l.l.l..l.l.ol. .l'. iIl~lI0.nb...13...... 9 47I 9.23..38.. 543...... 3 79 895.15 . 095.253 . 9 9 .9.33 3 41 3. L80D0tlCibl' 51.287 52.049 52.571 51,819 52.830 53,033 53.019 *542-7 53.5150 T0 ...... 4 1 7 49.37. 39,330 47.71 4 572 88381902772F0 152 157 157 152 I 153S5 5 15 1T57 D1911077390 7.375 49.31 49.043 480,09 49.819 4- .21739X.191 49,244 48.415 U019809nle. 3.1*3 3.79 3.538 3.329 8,0 3.357 3.3 3.510 8.53

793Tn0o109,34831 80 W Fo 88 ou no9470j3190 w999711 h92819 Cal I111797390181 lofuuU 7u00m1o1811111o7at1 0017913 llono11n113. DdUlulpomol W3 790798101It-0 taboolloof p714011Ilon n93I20lb7 23,190n * ~ InoIdo9303007 3393911 Fomo7~8111,0d In 21 1nnuoSlotsu 11,50w01 1a to S s lnO5uSIunhn 178

HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA t TSM A-t Employmm ss thu cilas Ps bby snd amg

028E .55f. ... a...... -.

~.b~ ...... :...... : ...... 70..... 007.i 40.ii 3. 5037. 377. 00. 30 i

.s s.t 7o s.s s. Unrp" .mzlnl...... 7

178,7 778.474 77875 75775.03 Ci7o70.40777550...... ''...... 75 0 P ..2...... 887 110.12 770.2 0.437 7.02s

7 s 7 2 'i i X; SS 1io l S; S;~a SS Uo Pbl ...... Un m7 .0.47..... 7.4 0.2 7. 0 .28 ,22 .24 .4 8,2

57,553 5740I 37.3329f; 5 7.80 38.707 38227s° 573710782 ...... 5 °T445 57.83 3723 . 2 i78777 75.732 78 788 78,37470,37 C1O"C4377-- .1.875.1 ...... 77 ...... 78.873 73.7 7°7.2 73.7 5 734 73.4 47.3473.4 .07so27i70i78' . 7. 73.4s .570.4 14 47,372 4s,4os 1, 03 47,824 Emp57337077377xPP...... 0.7 4 ...... 7.2. 78.7 1 270 ...... 5 E.d o. p....0 .;.sss . s .s s s .1 s 2 2 4 s .X . ~llon...... dO ...... l.fi s o

87X.77_ I28__17. 77 8 2'7.8547,3807875 C77I7347777077007"0335od n.87,770...... 8807 88.73

C~dl~no I p lolon...... I.ssI. .s1.5 .211 ^ 1 s .ssI.sI 5.374 ~d 244 5.255 .327 5.25 53.580 3.372 E08d...... 1s ...... 87087877.88sos..... ;...... 27

5570 0778733.7-080 777875354707777gw.m 7747.2148707-~ loWssosl8080047P5805.087707 7710 87303778007877 54875870838877777770438214388788407014070207377.. 179

HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA TablbA Emplqo Cb of the chilies populatn by I% Box,age, end Hlspnk od 7808031baj

-t - b _ Jan. 0_3. Jsn. J~o 387. 333T. 3X4. _3.3, J* . 1884 1s80 1887 1884 1884 1984 18 1E 1707

5 5,11 441354,704 1 23 55.834 C7m00Ilomn* I...... 54.8I54.I.I..I. . '...... 0...... 2,45502,503 '02,744 .03l ...... 5.4.5.4 4...... 50 5.2 '. 44.7 Em d ...... 45.7 8.. . 47 .281 80.3 84717 E ..lr...... 0. 4 7 00...... ''.4 U 1.. 414 41.7 ''.7 '1 * 5.58 4.05 5044...... 5...... U- 1n, 118...... I.I I7 5. 0 02 0 .0 . 5.

l ls ...... * 70 5.83...... 5.. 53.558 53,72? 55.757 54.015 54 512 5 Pn I l ...... 1 .5 lod 78. 78.4 . . 78.7 .... 40 027 51.074 50.474 50.844 , 50.843 50.845 50,088 57,284 51,287 pl o 5...... 74.0 70.0 4.7 480,1 7b 74.2 75.1 74.4 4. * 0 2.074 34...... 3...... 2...... 2...... 804 2.805 U4mpbym70.n0n7 .... 0 5.0 4.3 5.0 5.4 5..5.. 5.3 5.3 18-05078.Z 88ad- Solaola~motcloomo u~40404...... 41,s18 4l .sss40.72441 .547 51,388 41.540 *1.514*1 .400 nb1p boo.n ...... 55.2 55.o 8.50pb...... 55.2I4.4 5 .2 55.1 55.0 55.2 .331 38.50537. 345 l 38.431 38,30 38,454 33.548 ...... 5 2 5 .8 .1 5 . 5 57 Un mcbl~lyd 2...... 7821 1.812 52. 5. 52. 52.4 48871pbqm801r81 2.704 2.185 2,182 2.147 2.141 2.040 2.111 m44...... s 4.Xs.5 5. 54 3s 5 5.2 5.2 5.0o 5.1j 1 C'.I07'30ooos ...... 4 045 4 ,4444.2074s.7,, P0 l01p85381a1 4,8 4ns.84r2 4.- 00 '.017 4.085 I..... 53.0...... 52.4 ...... 44.4 .3ss7.8 58.4 50.0 5,8044788 ...... 5 080 5.484 57.3 37.8 07107881.o7s1018,ob ...... 5.228 5.703 5.780 3.871 5.783 5.731 nto ...... 4. 8 44.1 44 5.852 Un7s,,o078 85 48*-.0 40.7 48*-.3 48.7 48*-.7 48.2Z 835...... 800 1,7 1,7t11 1,085 1.071 1,137 438187107087,80...... 12 1,024 1,2033 14.2 14.2 14.1 14.8 15.4 14.0 15.1 0.08 .. I 3...... 14.1 15.0 18.14 15.0 14.4 35.7 14.3 15.3 W7n8 IS...... I5. 12. 3 3 14.1 15.e X.1 15.1 14.2 15.714.4 13.8 SLacK awillem~ ~ ~ I .oisHcrlpab...... 5400821853 8...... 4: "'. ": .. , I bnte...... I."i, 11.1 I I.';i' . I. ;,' -4 20120 I. " I I .; ... U...... d I;. "i; I . t2...I ,.,i, 11.1 ,5i2 13. 1 qmru.... h...... t ltIhMilln571010 ...... *1_n782- .....Uo n ...... '; ,I" '4, , E.1 d...... ,4, ., i, -;i Eml.p.."d ..... u o...... Un4 , . .It...... 'L., 11.1 I- 1- . I ,i., I I- 1- - I I- lmmn.nm ...... whh .~o...... E-1Ipb ...... nh ,;: 1 ,;: .I Emnpwd ...... s..i. Ump.yi...... "i" 11-1 51., U. nh ...... "i, ,i, II., .1.1 - I I- "I 12.1 11-0 174 I s "I n5. Empboyd11 .: m I...... I "I "I Empbyd...... "I I., I , I"I 31 . .. I"I .mhmppu~nno...... i, i. i ;2 i. Unmpovd ...... 2'i, Un mloy ...... 4 "i I n; " 'M um...... 3'.. "I I9., Wom...... 1, I ...... -2 I-

C91h no -n n'-`b l p t ...... "i, C9hhoh 1...... I2.540 12.453 I "" 1 P lbW Un nh ...... 8,235 8,310 I 2.: T".1 1- Ep. .ym lw ult...... w45.7 45.7i "I I; , , E.mpbyd...... - ;,.z " ,,M I;:", 828 853 .;i Un mpi;;,...... I- .;i I.., I... 1-. I..,

- On1 P01818. 8 --~~~~~~~~~~~~~f88800.8ab 180 w8. - - I l On lf380 I.h 880rlop.n1. HhpIn.n0000 028 C1nmpboycl.0 nl8p 8201 S non b0th. pnl8 ol Itoa lo 50.pIn1.bl .00 80.0-0480080Pl 0 180

HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA

Ti ha ioe Ct8 Tabe "801CIGMOMe- - -W

2 07 . 0. 73. 0 4 3 0 0 ,. 03 4 . 43 7. _...... 0 . J n .

100,032 133.307 010.137 010.402 I110.007 111s.011 5 3.5 53f 53,037 33.7 0f0 33. 35 7 4 ,0303 4 0,13 2 27.4°2 27.400 :7.525 M3303300030.3.'008o . 772030 2|°7.5 20,820 27,243 27.320 21,305 5.700 5.b20 0,83 0,443 0.005 5.385 ..S S.3.. wiflSWoottC0730lfl3 stI. 5..7. 27 3 NAM0050307080735 COAsO OF W0000 .1542 0 1,5-2 0.502 1.021 I.050 1.170 1.35 3,402 0. 0 I0.45 1.425 1.400 WA= .0 .W t ...... 40...... 7

~7.752 3803X2 3. i0 08. 0, 0 33,104 33,SSO 109.030 10,333 00,204 30.437 10.443 30,402 00,403 02.035 02,82 82,412 02,721 00. 03- 0.Il._3740_0230_003......

i 7,03 7.9300 7.,33 0 173 0.305 3.052 S3 tt333 . 50,1,1 ,,, ..... 20 7...... 271 275 205 252 203 244 Umwl .tl bt ...... 257 24 _tRD" ATWORK PA"T Tht

W ...... O .4...... 30,700 5.551 5.544 5,740 5.540 3.530 5.505 2.414 0 2.077 2,472 2.481 2.510 2.444 2.820 2,714 2.807 2.035 tse 2522 243a 2032 2.073 2.772 U3803830bi713000350 03.077 13,322 14,173 14.30 13,7700 4.,70

3.237 5.533 5,450 5.5-- 5.042 5,20- .70...... 2.231 P 0 0 .0 ...... S7 7 2,733 2.334 7,300 2.000 2,280 S 2,770 2.710 2,133 7.020 2,705 2.5-- 8 7 0.73 0 1 0.507 13. 4 5 5 1 7. 30 35771730 t...... ,3 5...44 550 05,30 0 l0,S2

Ex1. wst-i -I' C~t ftt N P~t Ihfk 56*000385 7,07 2,0 2.,7

of uner*ploynoent and t 1so f0a.. Tibba A" Range of ufwmplynod rllAosurs based on varing dofinlolriw seaaonsiby*atuD

D__ _ _lt 11.1 ...... , .. *. *. I...

..0.. .. 8 ...... !... 5.5 3.0 0.5 3.5 3.4 3.0 3.

7higI~rhet...... 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 7.0.. o..3*0330o4p .Ctt...... s P 03.~tt0 ..tC ..eltI~ ... .rl~ 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.5

7.0 7.0 0.0 0.0 ...... 3 .7 P~I0 0 0 3 4 150 0 _0 0 1 0 30 0 3*o 73*0p55 0 0 1 0 3 0 38. 3 W0. 70 01 O 0 7.0 7.1 0.3 0.3 I., 033.0IIal lol~o -... 00000733..00..0.. 00.30...... S ' T t"F_" ~~~~~~~~~~~...... '-...... o i.4 3. I., .2 40 . 3...... 114hl Td _ t t ...._ t .d._ .....Ic_ ......

30.2 10.2 _00.3 70.5 ...... N..A. 181

HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA TableA.6 Selected unemployment Indicaltos,seasonally adjusted

CPY

4786 8 64 8 188Is562 1806 1386 430 I6 1784 77

...... 0.. 404. 40 44 73 47

T.I1560008.0 ...ar .e~...... ec.7...... 7 .un .4 .84.7 4.7 u87.78784807008~~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~Jn4.274 4.408 4.484, 6.47.0 7.06s.0 .7 J438 U8. .o2r...... 5 . 3.544 725 3.72145.8..2 7.2 0 *003.3.87.04.0430304 3.628 3.517 3.578 7.0 7.0 4.3 6.7 4.7 4.7 0437*f03-a40744. 2.045 2.865 2.000 61I .2 4.1 I 4.1I 579 5 0 .o.484o40y46 . .4ls .402 48.2 40.5 17.7 15.2 17.0 17.7 0630310.8048083 .n 1.782 1.822 14.772 405 4.3 4.4 4.5 435 4.2 U8073o083 030 .803.4w 0 0 1,4G2 I.S785 I.352 5. 5s.4 I 5s.o 5.0 4 .8 4.85

8804413.t .1...... 3 . 7 1.52... 8.7 8.2 1 0..0

3087046744860806064480l. 7 5 __3 5.30 4.0 03 4 7.3 . 7.0. 3 0 4 4. wnrmmhImln...... so6;s77..s77959 0013130 . 4 4 15S 106 10.7 43.0 14.5 445s 14.1 14.0 003344504403 734 034 304 17.8 42. 15.8 54 43~.7 12.2 0007440044733 . . 1.572 .504 4.470 7.1 730 7.3 7.1 49 4n 05488180000 2 307 844 809370 6.57.2444.46066. 400704400180030 445 664 704 7.2 7.77.3 7. 7.7740 30 .0...... 277 200 304.4.5 7 5.2 44 4. 4.3. IFlnrcnll87478870803I0I. S4780 . . .57 1.5 s 4g.415 5.3 5 4 5.4 S 8.4 5 .1C sS 2 Gr.4784oo44 432 540 610 5.5 0.5 0.7 0.4 345 34 A0k4404rol840n88480804r0 n Z 1 5 Z. 24 2 26 44 5 42.3 41O. .aaI.348 41,41.6

mulnl... n~...... 9 5 5 e 0 7 s.8 7 .o 7 .s 6

TableA.7. Duoatlon Of uonemploymeont

... 080 ...... 00...304 . 00 03.

18384500.80 3.645 2.332 0.480 0.378 3.315 3.4418 5.552 8.055 0.444 040368.oOO .. .447 2,448 2,60 2.85 21.527 25 4 2.8 2.08 . 0 .5 ...... 2.4 2..7. 802...... o.27 48 2.474 2.200 7 86...... 87 354. I... 54.000 0 7.58. 4.45 .0.23. 4.22

A1o .4 ...... 422 4. . . 4243 4248 4.4 4.458 4.Iss 0 58durnl.oln. . . .4...... 4... 7 54.8°..07..7 4.8 7.

T . . .10...... 4 0.0 400.0 400.0 408.0 0. 0...0.0 4008 400 80.0

480843880047.2.4 27.4 26.5 26.5 285 24 4s 4.0 5 2. 4540288805 . . 2.8 42.8 42.0 45434474740274*25. 07.8018048008...... 1.2 4 3.7 334524.8 44. 445 4.8 '715sZ5 182

HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA Table A.& Reaeonfor _bI loyment

rF~ ~~ -, -

4311 _~~~~~~~. n ec. 40,. 4oc. 5.34. 043. Nbc. 3*4. 3; J3 . 53 13s7 93 933o 93 393 I133 s I9837

8U33E OFU3EMOVED

3,°75 ...... '.9.7 2.931 . 4......

091.3481o ...... * I,47 1.126 l,4S0 .133 1329 1 03 1.3*0 1. 231. .0 030 ...... 1...0..9. 1.0 0 0 0. 8.1

OCMLIA0A33R FORCE

...... s§ 5 . . . . ~ 0 .3 .3 H.. .n...... 3 0.0. 7. . l0 .0 .0 .3

4 ...... 1 . 1 . 1 . 24 131 1 . 3 4

Table A P. Unemployed perons by sox a*nD age, sasonall adjustd 24. 233 2. 87381113 .24.05 23.:5 23.2fi 23.3 24.9 2,.

11"~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ .,d 0.-_ . flI.39030 . ~~~~~~...... 0.... 8 9

234130008.42...... 42. S4. 33. 49.

...... 3. 1. 43 . 34. 0. . ., ...... 803 380 19 3 103 83 ...... 3.3.3938 0.2.....7 3 3 8 3 . 3 . 3 .

...... 3.33 . 0 . 4 . 3 3 3 . 2 9 4 ...... 3 '.=8 0 7 3. .33...... 7..0...... 2.. 3 .2 3 .4 183

HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA Teble AX.0Employment statue of blck end0t05 kmo

- _ _ _ Jxn~~.t 0e.02.0. Jat. 5*70. Oct. 000. 00 .. tOO6 1,00 I-C7 1006 '0 1 000 .000 I-C000 0;;6

l 00tO/oooaoo.ooo...... 24.000 23.400 OSStSI S00 2 dZS.274aSS aSOS 2.430 O$SSOS 5.1 07ilbh.oloto...... S..... 1S4 O.OSs tO.042 1-.0-2 15.75,.072 tO.t40 t0.t82 1-.1057 10.301. P60tO O ...... 2 tnd ~~~~~~~~.50...... tOss1200 tO. 047 03.001 10.0414 .9t4.007 1 4.1s7 4.0,i0l; OttOO wttttO.0...... SO 5 0 . S SS...... S55.7 SS.7 SS.7 S.1 OO~r bd 2,00 020...... OSS . 7 06 Ul.OOotmttobne...... 129 t- . O2O013l 130o.t o.7tXZ. 2Z.,;Z. OotntO.ooto,0...... 0.s040t0719.470 0.Oot ,.ZOZ 0.132 0.ttf 1t.270 0.170 0 t8.ooooo hot.. elbnt9Ueoot~9 a luOtdto O Chl000nnOw 00000bwo *0.00 .oloott~ -.e0000t Ouutoq00l O~~itt~o Otalon.

TableA-il. Occuptloonal status of the employed an d unemployed, not sessooally adjusted

. 0...... 20.0.0....0 000 704 2...0

E0m. . 020n .. 12.4 02.020...... S3..0 2. 2.0 P..OtntOOdinooJc00, ...... t 04.33 230 300 2. 2.2 ...... mam .n...... Z.; Z. Z s s Z.s Z. ~~~~~~~~~...... -Zl.szatZoZZ Tdo J.UcoO..o~ alo ...... 00.405 04. 7 1.04 0.7 7730003a*0200000.00.40000 .S..0...... 0.2d7 3.230 002 21 0.3.. 5 .. 02.07 00. 3 70...... 0S...... 4 A molntnwwd.l rc nOlodnl ...... 00 0 04* 4 5 4.4

00 0 8 04,470...... 4...... *4 .0 5 0.0 N003 ...... 07 02 75 0 7.2 0.4 70600l00.. 0.703 0,044 004 020 0. 0.s2

S. .onox~...... 2**-S Z .Z *S 3 0000nn.o...... 0...... 00,720 7 .- S0.2 S 2 0.0 0.0 It nWOIaS.O06000.0. 4,20S 4,402 247 240 5.4.0.2...... C20000500I|t~~ad@...... 0 De .on Ot .0000.000...... 0. 4,030 310 270 7. 0.1

000003...... 202 2.3 2.0 MfotWOOS3000O6.6.00 W...... 00.4 .0..0.0...... Tn 00 0 0 .0 m0 rs__ ...... 3-- 4.S00 S SO? 00.0 00 .r Jl...... *47 * .S- 5.304 0 .0

Fe00000006~.07000000000 ...... 2,00-0 2 .722 30 324 0.7 00.0

m 00. s 0I0b r60 *0 0n6i00 000 62 184

4OLD DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEI adjusted Table A-1I EmploymYtOt status Of o0s Vltm0n8 nttnsmt arid roowntenso by agO.not seasonally ,._X 1. tw41

C l_ b

-880

lass=.

-l $

4C817. J s*l * 02 C 4 31 4857.5 T a2i Ca . ..XW O . 4027. I j87C I 87G2 207.4. 2 2

47"nin~~~~~~ow7~ 1 1's 538 I4 a 134 18 80 ' 18 717343084VE7EIOAS

5,77 C3.445 44 332 4.3 4. 821o82n818 .4. i8214.275 .72 4,347

70*1334040 171 47342F 11 3 MEb 201--7. 0 10 41 --0 1 -81-7 74 33 - 7334 3 2478g1g 3 l.o-021442 N07E 2 0 17 1 801077m 374141 40443151,44- . 7 1975 -07 34 3487 13 185

HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA Table A.13. Employment status ot the c13111anpopulatlon tOr el6vn large States 30,snsn m3 5 60_63 l ___ _ -- `4 3."%. .3 -19

I. 34 4 3 34 11.31333I- 3333341 17:23,211- "" 2 I 3 2 3 3 33 1 . v1n.. o...... 33,3S35 3',64 62.*644 ...... ~b 535 563 217 12.,2 663 6 3 6 2 l26.3 43.5S 1 36 2 463.

_ ~...... 3,3334 I.3 .... 3.333.3453433433 55- 3I 6332 ; .1,112 * 221 I..," I :~ II ": ""~I ,.: 304 33 333" :.333 5, 1'1S, ,11; - 11~~~~~1 43 3.- - 3. . 31{ l S6 ...... U n ...... a.e^ 5.343 "I S C?] 3.2333 3.26z4I3* . :4.i7) 1.1s5 I I21, I ": I,26 3.233 [ 5 ,(,<1R ns 5.2r.5 3,353 ' 5.z:1- "Io^. 34 7i2s33 A.- ,2.46l5

4.6 33333 5313 Clnorh ...... I's ~1.4 s65 Fm...... }. mss "I 3,343 2 -22 4.30 32 4.321- 4,23 1.333 ' .I4; a.s[16

3533 3.5536,5333,433 3,033 I 3,333 ".I . 6.3334S.43343,4334,339 4.33343 ~~~~3 6 39Z E.i10nn.oi ....1 ...... 4,43 66.43 4,233 s 546 3. ,3 -24n 3 E6.234 I 3 ',~ s5o32i3 3,3334,3363:%- ":N 6 ,,33-34. i q33 4.ISi l1 3.4 33l 53 33w .3^ 536 53 332 7.4 ...... |

-5. 3,453 3,343 3.530 3.333 S.542 S.463 5 93 I3, C ..... 2n21.. b ...... * 311 3 3.533 7 6so oUsw.,443s.. _3..... 3.333",I33 3,3 1 71! 334 233 355 I., -3 I 135 0w6342 1.3 6.6 ss3 6.5 3.3 0N5 4 56313.3644*asnh...... bre 30333 5,654.336s s 6 04E. 3 .3 d ...... 6...... b04n35 6.1Z - 5c~r2m 43341 33.353 2.3 33,3 3' .342 33.32 23.34 l37s 3.323 T34oosss3 l3.33 S.5ll ...... "I71 s 93s 71 -^1*I 13w1. 1F6 I.6 a .009 3, 34 3, 35 , I3,33 a -n. 524- I6 , :33 I§ 7 30332 ,9>454 ,.,3,.b 653 ,3.3 ~322 502 03.41*43563633~6 441303 43. 6.6 433n , 3.3 433 5 3 Cl-l-,...... r n ...... ,.n- I.3. ,. 7s0 i 1 ': ",, * 802 3.26 I 3",33I 3.271 wo t ...... *"I- 7.336 0433*r.3644333 no 46663 .126 22n 3.tls I. I., 2 I..9- ts6 5,2 I I., 4 .!

cltnlol ...... 63...33. r . l.I.m... .. 3 Eo P ...... 4, 3 ,2 43 ,3 5, 34 5 3I3 5.33 5.324 5.35 .32s" Ur_...... 635 435 453 653 665 426 353 663 4333 3.3 34 ,3 .5 335r 2333 .6 3.5 33. twn ...r 4...... U.V.P ......

S S a~~~~~~~~115,33, 7 -, :...* 33 .3561 3,36432- 9295.3 3.55I,920 5,37. 25s 5,643I - , 3.36 3,33s .3 I. 3.603 I,8 3.266 3.366 5236 5.233 5.463 .11 a 333 *665 I3I 353I 65 233 343 I 6.3Is . I, 65 3.5 432 3.6 6I.

33334 " I 3" 42I 33.4 62.336I 6646 6..6 6.... I 32.465, 3 323 5 345 I 5 0SS I 6 8.202 I ' .4 . - 35 ..3.

31 .Si563 3664 533S I 6.317 360.41l' 2864.4 344 I,66 3343.43 lT ao I ---- _00W36I._- _ - -633* a_ _06 5T 330 .23 I.e 36 3633.3 34334.6035435303b34333345*3.02020. 6 3 ...... 301sd 3 .*3043 o, .. 353.603%330 06 3S042030336 n br 186

ESTABLISHMENT DATA ESTABLISHMENT DATA

Table B.I. E.ployess o. nonagricult.ral payrolls by Industry

...... 11 I O, .1 M It .29 'O.., C. 21, O,

T- 1 ..It ...... 116 2 I I I I 19 I I ......

0-.--,m ...... 2'.,,, 2 110:1 2"S's 2.,61. 1.120 2I.-

......

...... !'2:.'1'1 11:23'......

......

137 "I ...... 1.1.3 2 7,:, I.. ;111 11I 11 0, ...... II. M I 19 1-1 151 1751 III IW- C. -C I Ill -1 I I I Ill I 1;I "I 211 Ill 1 71, ...... 16 .l, 2 .1 37 2 .0 11 1.. 31 Ili :% I .2 2:,1 11 2 . I...... :11 1.92 '79 11 2I, I 37 a3 1 I 2 1 I 31 .. I 1. 7 I ,M ...... 370 31 3

...... 1 :1411 ..21 7 .837 ...... 5 .11 . 11M 1 :"'I- ;:'I:'. ;::.it :' I.- .,151 1.161 ...... 1 10 1 .9 71 T- ...... 7 I .8 I, .7 1.2 09 ,, "3' .3 3 11 I I .1 I I I "II .... :...... M : ' I , 6". 9I 11 I "I "I :17 II I193 1.41t "O 17 : . :.2. :01 I ::CI' I :.I' '.7 :', .0 .7 ...... I 17 .I M., 160 M I03,11 .01III) I, 1114 I 1. 10.1 11 I ...... 1 12 .I Ill ...... 7 C."' 11 .1 O, 11 17 7I .1 9 15 .1.2 71 .961 7 1 .1 17 76 .313 1. .167

W... I .21 1 "m 5 .11 4 5 :.II I 1 :.3.1 : I :.I.1 I I .31, Ill 1 .31 3 ,.I Ill 3.111 I.IIII I I 11 3 I 'I 01 2230 2 . 14 2.M :2, .2 3 5 2"'.

I11. 1: % I 3 I : I. I !I ...... J.- 236. 2.3% 2 .311 2 37. 048 217 1 Ill I 1 112 I I "I 11 65 T' 23 1 ...... - 23. . . .;I: ';:;'U 1 312 1:'311 .1C, ...... :1 74 -il 'I :11 1:1 I :01.1:.1 I :,111A I :111 2 :;I' 2 ::II 1 :9,71 71 1 :111 3 :111 mmm 70 II: 0 , .9 5I .1 ...... a 5 ..3 , 5 1. 1. 5 .10 2 6..Ol I .0 49 6 .07

Fl= = II .II ...... I'll I1 23 6 11.1 I : 101 6 11" I 11 I I 7a .9', I.578 1 .962 1 .9 71 ...... m 1 ,112 ,.", I ,22 4 .2:,6 ;,O : 1", 3 I 12 951

...... 1,3;Il4l 11j,111, 21 1:1 211 13 1051 21 111. 21 1:1 11::1: p" w I ,I . ..11 :. I :, :,, II ...... :6.1 :1 : 7 1 1:1 .7 .1 .3 6 . 17 6 .9 6 .611 6 .111 6 .7 29 1 .7 6 3 :,11.1 16 11 116 ::II I 7: 2 2 ...... 1:11C, 1: CID I :1 4 1:.I 'I I :: 11 I :Ill I :.II I 1:1.1 3 :.17 L...... I. I. Ill .6" I I III 2. 10 0

p 187

ESTABLISHMENT DATA ESTABLISHMENT DATA

Table B.2. Average wyekly hour5 of produ4tlon or onscpnrPlsory work.,, on prvate nonagrlcultral payrolls by Inldustry

.2 0378 8a 8-4m

7 138. 19.r4 1 | X4.. i98 I 7986 I984 87 _ 7"" I '"' I 78' 1987 p

947377..8478 ~ ...... 34.7 j >47 I 4.9 1' :1.,I 11.1 011D...l ...... 44.4! I UI~ * 2.' I... (2) (2) (2) 3'.. (2) (2) (2) (2) 4C.7, 41.0 141.6 1 7777 27o7770...... 44.3 47.47 1. 1.6 3.4 I'1. 3-.1 1 70. 3 80. I7.

| '3.1 0.1 2A0f707. 84. 0 7. .3 *0.4.4 430...... 47.3 47>7 I2. 1 grW D.= I ...... ~ 47.3 42.1 74.7 .1 .1 *.1 4.9U1* 40:0 M~~b.7.07074223283 4...... I 11 .1 7047070774778870087272l iC 026078 67.7 47.4 42.01 10.1 Sloo8eU7877208077277407 7 ..... 11.1 *2.- 0042024770m3 70 3.7678 ... . I *1.29 111.11 41.e I I 1. I I 0.sI 31.6 I 1 .1 727 Scl-- nc ao- ...... 40.0 I 47.9 40.1 4.11§ 42.n 12. 1 til- e l- .1 ...... 72 7 7276 13 .5 hl u -i 1...... Tr7Am 4072lo6037800407 4773.1 0 2 44:02 lb b -... u...... I , 72.0 7127 I I1. i ...... ;11.. I (Ia 11 .1 (27' (2i' U2.3 f .ol.. .n ...... 727. 72.3 *247 i 42.6 I .I ul ...... (9i' I " : " 11 .1 .*li.l ...... 13.1 740. 080...... Ir...... 14 .1 I .I ...... (*32 ) .risWu .o ...... I... I .2 i II8.0 I

Wl...... 11.1 28-

-1

I 1 7 0 82 1 77747 7940474076nmoic.7004ewn77707700 847 n rTAlo4or8rn8CD Sm .2c0mib387.944743A.48r408u 0W7mi7h .md7 7 0 - a 70lo*8 4087 0070ni0In 17 - 87-7 W*l970 - -02 0 -2 70l 027 m048788h74b0AT1_64000 477777728.8i000l20AOO27770* I 7 -. m 0 .470806- . o 2 ff 2 247242. T7 87-2 4 6 201 I E 70-7.T.43-77978077ol70787 - -P77087o D00 09. 8.828777777 0474001477070r .o .

7n8n 10Q n 00 - 188

ESTABLISHMENT DATA ESTABLISHMENT DATA

T0110B-I. Aisrege hortY aVWweekly earningp of production or nottaupervlsoy wOrksone r privatenonagrlctulosu peyrolle by Indusby

...... e......

0~~~~..88.f...... 8.2. 8.8 68.99 8 .6 36.89 80.3..f8.3 835

3420 ...... 2..32.33-32.6 2....5..3..6..502.63 93.66 53.3

C 0 . . 2.3.3..83....2.....0...... 0 63.3

e 8c...... 97 .3 99 .3 39.80.70.60 0 ...... 3...2..30.133 66 09 2 .8 6 83 3 .8 6 63

67268.63.,..6636222332d...... 9.96 30.3. 30.3 30.3 63636 63 .6 60..36 600.33 303....92...... 8. 2 ...... 336 38 36 39 9.6 532 3.6 509 82763287632...... 332.3.9.3..3.6.5.0.3.3.926.399 ...... 9.5.8 83.3.3..98.03.9.6 3.0.6 2.2..3 .3

M380233833806835252.3...... 3.8..6..70 3.6 8330 3039 933.3 30.56 e.02 -3d9 9.8.9.00..09...6 953.0.033.3.368.9.667.9 0

...... -1 ...... 8.7 80 .9 96 6.3 693 6.0 997 .000023 .... 03...... 33..26.3..3.0.6.0 8.3 69.3 436 T232333360... 6.83.3.03..30.3.32.23.20.366.7..03.00.386.9 ...... - ...... 9.9.90..33.5 96.23 .03.0 6.89.33.03.3..3

1 , 1, ... S.2. 60 3 3 C3 0 8 33 3 22 6 6 0 -3t3 - -3 .0" , -603 .-038 1I33 00 6 2 61363 3 3 6 I 0 02 - "= 063303306,36306-8383&30620 320303636

Table5-4 Hourly Earndngsindex for product ion or nonsuperolsory workers' on privatenotnegricultural payrolls by iriustr8y

In~q...... 1.6. 53..... 2. 32. 33.26 06 23 33. 13 33

3 I 1: . I ...... ~~~~~~~~~883I 98 189

ESTABLISHMENT DATA ESTABLISHMERT DATA

Table S-. Indexes Of igegte We" hours of production ornonsupetnhsry workers' ot priasts nonagriultural payrolls by industry

3*5. 5*86. Its. v8,. 0I0. 35. "t I '"' 2586 2586 2586 2586 2586 2587 T .I ...... o~ ,..1 127.18 28.3 118.6 229.5 II2.o 2l9.$ 6...... 9I.. 200.6 58.0 58.5 98.8 58.5 200.0 ...... l...... $2.1 204.5 81.2 62.2 82.2 12.2 "7- 52. 92.2 c n ...... --I 1-6 252.2 234.2 233.0 232.41 232.1 222.0 it--'le ...... II.. 53.5 52.0 52.2 53.5 55.5 5541 p , ...... I , 92.6 50.5 50.2 50.6 50.4 90.5 dicls...... II3. 120i2 I.. :" I::1 99.2 220.5 201.2 20.3 .uillin...... 61 1 1 1 I202.8 253.6 ~ 102. 05.0 05.0 200.s 200.5120.8 206.6 209.2 Si O7t~tdOb .I...... 5- ...: a "I... 2.5J 50. I.,. 85.2 55.5. 50.3 82.7 90.8 88.2 mtb . n~l...... 13:1. 26.7 62.8 62.2 62.6 62.9' 62.2 55*60575526607i ii 5di2 200*2 I...... 53.6 28.2 25.0 65.3 .5 4. Fbatd bl Dmdb...... ".I *9 U 52.0 89.4 88.6 55.0 s8.8 89.3 tiibnteetIbi t ...... '11:3 I s.2 II1.9 SO0.2 65.8 85.2 85.2.1 82.5a 85.8 itebiBb o3ii1...... I...... ' 0 'I°2 205.8 202.5 102.5 102.5 102.6 102.6 .~baa~sIiO...... 55.8. 97.3 98.2 55.9 52.5 86.3 55.0 65.2 89s.7'S 85.2 U ir - w Wt7.3o ...... 9S2.2 822 5. 6. 80 95.5 n ...... t aW- ...... t .' S 82.4 1 0.9 09.5 55. 82.5 82.0 tix .stunO ...... a t. 55,5I 52*.5 56.31 90.2. 50.0 58.5 -I 83.0 5 0... ,.I :'. I 0.3 Tei ti ti in ...... S..&-9. 6 Te~tlimdools...... miS} 1 76.81 51.8 *-i '2.6 " 51 "7.' 2.582.0 ...... 80 .5 55T.2,I 5.5 I 66.5 80.6 I 01.0 'Fii0 t3i db*...... 55.851 87.6 o1.3 indododlb...... 00.3 210 . 202.0 222.7 03.5 202.6 '.31:1 limdFe .7itlga.- ...... --. -. -...... - . -- SI 7.I 226.6 270.51 225.1 255.2 230.3 252.2 C~meli~d^1b v b ...... 0.1 93.21 03 4'53.0 94 6 53.0 95.2 * 57?T.7I75 2105.1I.5 imbb andc~tlC~d~l...... I. mleol P -tio it bCi .... e ...... '::6S 2222 2125j11.51222.6 222.8 222.5 11.1 I I9.. 62.6{ 56.6' 52.6 57.5 59.' 55."5 i~aM7ib |NIM 1 db1s...... -...... II--- 7.151.61 1205. 225.51225 2 225030' 0'30.2 250.2 ItIt...... 112 .1 '°00'',228-61010731 209.2 205.5 206.8 Nl7...... 1-2 225.9. I,.... 8,.3! 225... 255" 229. 220.'6 nibbD b ...... - 223. 21,,.,1 12'..

Fr . Nn.b ...... I---, 133.31 235.0 239.0 222.2 220.6 247.2 255."' 220.5 ft* l ...... I 11 .3 ias.aI 226.0: 222.8 227.9228*.222s.4 5*950055te,0 2862 5 .2 p.wpr.2lmii h o.

Table64. Indexesof diffusion: Percent of Industries In which employment' Increased

T_ 0.** ass. , Pa 555. 620.T MsM 7 MY It5. S5_p Ot -. 8.

2983 52.4 20.5''' 53.5 45.2 52.6 27. 56.2 56.5 50.0. 62.5 ...57.6 59.5

50*22' 532950. '856 .2.....' ! " ' , . I . , . ,. .2

2I985 ...... I6251.3i ' ' . 2 2 5 25.0 52.2 55. 55.5 6.53

25 85 i . 5-2,200256.....|35.53.8 27'.53.8 22.27.645.825.528.625.03 255 *.3 6. 48. 50.555~~~1.6 963 54.2 P963.2 530.05.0 57 .0 55 .5

0,280 190 ...... 52-2,2065 '5F j 1115 52.2 52.5 852.3 952.0

C__ I2552525552025345 -I)- -_ W 3. 22 .2202202*6256225 556P225 .0 -l i~_ monm m . a l P -u, 22522*5000525525022565222(*50520-l ol ... OE- FiN3- -DlibiitI- ... (ii -DcMu 190

Senator SARBANES. Well, Commissioner, first, why don't you take a few moments to outline in a little more detail the changes that are being made in the CPI? Mrs. NORWOOD. All right. Senator SARBANES. As I understand it, you're in the process of holding briefings around the country on these changes for the press and for other interested parties, is that correct? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes, that's right. As you know, the Consumer Price Index is used not just by the Federal Government in legislation but by an enormous number of private users-corporations who use it for escalation of contracts both for workers and others, and private individuals who use it in a variety of contracts-quite apart from the important uses of it as an inflation indicator. So we have undertaken a rather extensive information program. We will be having a series of meetings all over the country, including in Washington, of all users before the index is issued to explain the changes. Basically, what we have done-and it is our practice about once a decade to do this-is we have updated all of the samples in the index. The population, for example, the consumers represented in the index, will be based now on the last decennial census, the 1980 decennial census, and that means that the South and the West will have somewhat higher weight in the index than before. I mentioned the improved housing sample. That's a really major undertaking. It is of tremendous importance given the large weight of the index that goes into both rent and home ownership. There will be changes in the city sample in which we collect data. There will be changes in the items that are in the market basket. Some things like personal computers and compact disc stereo players which didn't exist before will have an opportunity to fall into the sample. It is, in fact, a massive undertaking, a tremendous job at processing. Also, a whole new computer system has been developed as a part of it. We were very unhappy at trying to figure out how to make up for the couple of days that were lost because of the snow because people have been working day and night on this process in order to get it done on time. I am extremely proud of the BLS staff who's been working so hard on this. Senator SARBANES. As I understand it, the revised CPI will reflect a market basket calculated on data for 1982 through 1984, is that correct? Mrs. NORWOOD. That's correct. Senator SARBANES. And it will reflect the Nation's population distribution as of the 1980 census, is that correct? Mrs. NORWOOD. That's correct. Senator SARBANES. The last time you did this, which I take it was in 1978, did you do any studies on the comparability of data? In other words, what does it do to our ability to look at a series of monthly figures and continue to make comparisons? I don't know what the figures will show, but suppose the figures for the next month show some significant shift-or even if they don't show a significant shift-to what extent do we then have to move to a dif- 191 ferent base, or can we continue to make reasonable comparisons about what's happening to the movement of the consumer prices? Mrs. NORWOOD. That's a question, of course, that occurs any time you make an improvement in a statistical series-what does it do? What does it do to the historical time series? What we do in the Consumer Price Index as a matter of historical tradition is that when there is a major revision we continue to provide users with 6 months of overlap with the old index, because many of our users who have embedded the index in the collective bargaining contracts, for example, need to determine what the effect of the change is. So we do always have a 6 months overlap. That's about the best that we can do. It is an expensive process. This year we are doing it somewhat differently from the past because we have tried to make the process more efficient by spreading it out somewhat more so there will be a few more changes introduced later. But people will be able to look at this index over the next 6 months and make a judgment about whether the change has been significant from their point of view in terms of using it. In the past, we have done that and the differences were fairly small. Interestingly, they were not always in the direction that people expected. Most people assume that when you revise a market basket and the weights that you will have less inflation. That is not necessarily true and my recollection is that in 1978 we found that, in fact, the new index was slightly higher. This is usually only a few tenths of a percentage point, but in the CPI, one-tenth of a percentage point has a tremendous effect. That's why we are spending so much in the way of our time, all of our senior staff will be out making presentations about the CPI, including me, and we believe that this is important because half the population of this country have incomes that are in some way affected by that indicator. Senator SARBANES. SO you will run, in effect, a double set of figures for 6 months? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes, that's right. Senator SARBANES. And you will show the CPI on the old calculation and the CPI on the new calculation? Mrs. NORWOOD. That's correct. Senator SARBANES. And it's your view that for discounting purposes 6 months is long enough to establish the relationship between the new index and the old index? Mrs. NORWOOD. I think 6 months is a good period. It is what we have done historically. There was one period in the 1950's when the Bureau just announced a new index and disbanded the clercial staff who produced the old one. Congress didn't think that was a very good idea and I believe it was President Eisenhower directed the Bureau to go back and rehire all of those clerks-this was before the CPI was computerized. That's the only time the Bureau did not try to have an overlap. It's difficult to say whether 6 months enough? Is 2 years enough? One really has to make a judgment and our judgment is that our users seems to be able to make the kinds of analyses that they need to make with 6 months of data. Obviously, a year would be more data, but there is a tremendous cost involved here. 192 Senator SARBANES. I will probably come back to it. Let me just ask a couple of questions on the employment figures before I defer to Senator Melcher. When you talk about an employment-to-population ratio, what is the population? What constitutes the population in that ratio? Mrs. NORWOOD. The working age population. Senator SARBANES. And what is the definition of the working age population? Mrs. NORWOOD. The noninstitutional population 16 years and over. Senator SARBANES. So the population figure is everyone in the country 16 years old or older, is that correct? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes, who is not living in an institution, like a jail or something like that. Senator SARBANES. And there is no cutoff at the upper end of the age level? Mrs. NORWOOD. No. Senator SARBANES. So someone 85 years old is part of that population figure? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes, that's correct. Senator SARBANES. And then you set against that everyone who has a job, is that correct; and that gives you your employment-to- population ratio? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes, whether part time or full time; everyone who is classified as employed in the survey. Senator SARBANES. So this has nothing to do with whether people are looking for work or not looking for work? Mrs. NORWOOD. No. Senator SARBANES. And this ratio is now at 61.1 percent? Mrs. NORWOOD. That's right. Senator SARBANES. And as you look at the historical figures, that's largely because many women now have jobs? They used to be part of the population ratio since they were of working age but they weren't working, is that correct? Mrs. NORWOOD. That's correct. That's probably the largest influence. There's been an interesting development over the last year in particular of Hispanics, particularly Hispanic women, coming into the labor force in much larger numbers. There's been a slight increase in the employment-population ratios for the black population. Senator SARBANES. What are those ratios? Mrs. NORWOOD. For the black population? Senator SARBANES. And the Hispanic and then for the rest of the population? Do you have those separate from the 61.1 percent figure? Mrs. NORWOOD. We have it-it is now 61.9 percent for white workers; and for blacks-- Senator SARBANES. For the white workers, do you have the figure as between men and women? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. The ratio for adult men is 74.5, for adult women 52.4. 193 Senator SARBANES. Well, now, when you say adult men, does that refer to a different definition from the one included in the population ratio of 16 and over? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. It's 20 and over. Senator SARBANES. But was the 61.9 percent figure you gave me for-- Mrs. NORWOOD. That includes the 16- to 19-year-olds as well. Senator SARBANES. Then what are the comparable figures for men and women that go with the 61.9 percent figure? You just changed the population on me, as I understand it. Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, I don't have-- Senator SARBANES. Is that correct? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes, that's correct. I changed the population on you, but I don't have the figures for all men and all women with me. We can supply them for the record. What we generally do in looking at this is look at adult men, adult women, and teenagers, both black and white. Senator SARBANES. Do you have the figure for adult men and women, white men and women, the overall figure that goes with the 74.5 and the 52.4? Mrs. NORWOOD. We can supply that for the record. We have the two figures, but we'll calculate it and supply it for the record. Senator SARBANES. All right. Can we do the same exercise with respect to the Hispanics and the black population? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes, we will supply that for the record. Senator SARBANES. Could you give me now what you have, which I take it would be an employment-population ratio overall for 16 and over, but which would have adult men and women in each, is that right? Do you have that with you now? Mrs. NORWOOD. No, I do not. What we have with us now for whites and for blacks is adult men, adult women and teenagers separately, and the total. And for Hispanics we just have the total. But we can try to supply all the other information. [The following information was subsequently supplied for the record:] CIVILIAN EMPL OYMENT -POPULATION RATIO - ALL CIVILIAN HORKERS JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. ANNUAL AVERAGE ORIGINAL 1980 ...... •..•.. 58.9 58.9 59.0 59.0 59.0 59.5 59.9 59.6 59.0 59.3 59.2 59.0 59.2 1981 •...•...... 58.0 58.1 58.6 59.2 59.4 59.6 60.3 59.9 58.8 59.1 58.8 58.2 59.0 1982 ...... •.... 57.1 57.1 57.4 57.5 58.1 58.5 58.9 58.6 57.8 57.7 57.4 57.1 57.8 1983 ...... 56.1 56.1 56.4 56.9 57.2 58.5 59.2 59.1 58.6 58.7 58.9 58.7 57.9 1984 ...... •...... 57.7 58.0 58.5 58.9 59.7 60.6 60.9 60.4 59.8 60.0 60.0 59.8 59.5 1985 ...... •••.••. 58.8 59.0 59.5 59.7 60.1 60.5 61.1 60.9 60.4 60.7 60.5 60.3 60.1 1986 ...... •••. 59.5 59.3 59.8 60.1 60.5 61.4 61.9 61.7 60.9 61.2 61.1 60.9 60.7 60.0' ~o.l, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1948 ...•••••...•.. 56.6 56.7 56.1 56.7 56.2 57.0 57.1 56.6 56.6 56.5 56.5 56.8 1949 ...... •....•.. 56.2 56.2 56.0 55.7 55.4 55.0 55.0 55.1 55.3 54.9 55.6 55.3 1950 •••...... 55.1 55.1 55.1 55.8 55.8 56.2 56.1 56.8 56.6 56.9 56.9 56.7 1951 .•.•...... 56.9 57.0 57.7 57.3 57.6 57.1 57.6 57.4 57.1 57.3 57.1 57.7 1952 ...... 57.7 57.7 57.1 57.1 5;' . 3 57.3 57.0 56.8 57.4 56.9 57.5 57.6 1953 ..••...... 57.8 58.0 58.1 57.5 51.1 57.4 57.4 57.1 56.8 56.7 56.5 55.7 1954 .•...... 55.7 56.2 55.7 55.7 55.4 55.2 55.0 55.2 55.5 55.5 55.5 55.2 1955 ...... 55.7 55.7 55.8 56.2 56.3 56.3 56.9 57.1 57.2 57.2 57.4 57.7 1956 ...... 57.8 57.5 57.3 57.5 57.6 57.5 57.5 57.6 57.6 57.5 57.3 57.3 19!\7 ...... •..... 57.0 57.5 57.6 57.2 57.1 57.2 57.5 56.9 57.0 56.8 56.4 56.6 1958 ...... 55.9 55.5 55.3 55.2 55.4 55.2 55.2 55.4 55.4 55.6 55.5 55.5 1959 ...... • 55.7 55.5 56.0 56.3 56.2 56.3 56.3 56.1 56.0 56.1 55.7 56.3 1960 ...... 56.0 56.2 55.4 56.4 56.4 56.5 56.2 56.1 56.4 55.8 56.1 55.7 .... 1961 ...... ••.••• 55.7 55.5 55.6 55.2 55.2 55.6 55.2 55.3 55.0 55.3 55.5 55.3 CoO 1962 ...... ••••. 55.4 55.7 55.7 55.4 55.7 55.6 55.3 55.7 55.7 55.5 55.2 55.2 ~ 1963 ...... •.....•. 55.2 55.1 55.3 55'.5 55.3 55.3 55.4 55.4 55.5 55.5 55.4 55.3 1964 ...... 55.3 55.6 55.5 55.9 56.1 55.6 55.7' 55.7 55.7 55.6 55.7 55.6 1965 ...... ••..•. 55.7 55.7 55.9 56.0 56.2 56.1 56.5 56.3 56.2 56.4 56.4 56.6 1966 ...... 56.7 56.6 56.6 56.8 56.7 56.9 56.9 57.0 57.1 57.1 57.4 57.3 1967 ...... 57.1 57.0 56.8 57.1 57.0 57.3 57.4 57.4 57.4 57.5 57.5 57.6 1968 ...... 57.0 57.3 57.4 57.4 57.8 57.8 57.6 57.5 57.5 57.5 57.6 57.7 196 0 ...•...... 57.6 57.9 57.9 57.9 57.8 58.0 58.0 58.1 58.1 58.1 58.1 58.1 1970 ...... 58.0 57.9 57.9 57.9 57.5 57.3 57.4 57.2 57.0 57.0 56.9 56.7 19; ...... •••..... 56.8 56.6 56.4 56.6 56.6 56.2 56.5 56.6 56.6 56.6 56.8 56.8 1972 .•..•...•..... 56.7 56.7 56.9 56.9 57.0 57.0 57.0 57.1 57.0 57.0 57.2 57.3 1973 ...... ••••••• 57.1 57.5 57.8 57.7 57.7 58.0 57.9 57.8 57.9 58.1 58.2 58.2 1974 .•.•••••...... 58.2 58.2 58.2 58.0 58.0 58.0 58.0 57.8 57.7 57.6 57.3 56.9 1975 ...... 56.4 56.1 56.0 55.9 56.0 55.8 56.0 56.1 56.1 56.1 56.0 56.1 1976 ...... 56.4 56.5 56.7 56.8 57.0 56.8 57.0 57.0 56.9 56.9 57.0 57.0 1977 •..•...... 57.0 57.2 57.4 57.6 57.8 57.9 57.8 58.0 58.1 58.2 58.6 58.7 1978 ...... 58.8 58.8 58.8 59.2 59.3 59.5 59.3 59.4 59.5 59.7 59.8 59.8 1979 ...•.•••••••.• 59.9 60.1 60.0 59.8 59.8 59.9 60.0 59.8 60.0 59.9 60.0 60.1 1980 •...... •.••. 60.0 60.0 59.7 59.4 59.1 58.9 58.8 58.8 58.9 58.9 59.0 59.0 1981 ...... 59.1 59.2 59.4 59.6 59.5 59.0 59.1 59.1 58.7 58.8 58.6 58.2 1982 ...... 58.2 58.2 58.1 57.9 58.2 57.8 57.7' 57.8 57.6 57.4 57.3 57.2 1983 ...... 57.2 57.1 57.1 57.3 57.3 57.8 58.1 58.2 58.4 58.4 58.7 58.8 1984 ....•...... • 58.8 59.1 59.1 59.3 59.7 59.9 59.8 59.6 59.7 59.7 59.8 59.9 1985 ....•...... 59.9 60.1 60.2 60.2 60.1 59.8 59.9 60.1 60.3 60.3 60.3 60.4 1986 .•..•••••.•.• : 60.6 60.4 60.5 60.5 60.5 60.7 60.8 60.9 60.8 60.8 60.9 60.9 !~ 1.1' c,p-, CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT-POPULATION RATIO - MEN 16 YEARS AND OVER JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. ANIIUAL AVERAGE ORIGINAL 1980 .••••••••••••• 71.5 71.5 71.7 71.6 71.9 73.1 73.7 73.2 71.7 71.9 71 .4 71.1 7?.0 1981 •••••••••••••. 70.0 69.8 70.6 71.4 71.8 72.6 7 3. 7. 73.2 71.4 71.2 ' 70.3 69.5 71 .3 1982 ...... •.... 68.2 68.1 68.4 68.8 69.7 70.4 71.0 70.6 68.9 68.7 68.0 67.4 69.0 1983 .•.••••.••.•.. 66.2 66.1 66.6 67.3 68.2 70.4 71.4 71.0 69.7 69.7 69.7 69.4 68.8 1984 ...••••••••••• 68.3 68.6 69.1 69.7 70.7 72.5 72.9 72.5 71 .3 71 .2 70.9 70.4 70.1 1985 ..••••..•••..• 69.2 69.1 69.8 70.3 71.2 72.0 72.8 72.6 71.4 71 .3 70.9 70.4 70.9 1986 ...... 69.7 69.3 69.8 70.3 70.9 72.2 72.9 72.6 71.2 71.1 71.0 70.7 71.0 hQ·7· "9.7 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1948 .•.••••.•..... 83.8 83.9 83.0 83.3 83.1 83.7 83.8 83.5 83.2 83.5 83.3 83.5 1949 ....•....•..•. 82.8 82.6 82.1 82.0 81.3 80.9 80.4 80.7 81.0 80.0 81.2 81.0 1950 ...... •.. 80.7 80.7 80.7 81.1 81.6 81.8 82.0 82.8 82.9 83.0 83.1 83.0 1951 .....•.....••. 83.1 83.7 84.5 84.1 84.5 84.0 83.9 84.1 84.0 84.1 83.8 8 ft.S 1952 .•••••....•... 84.4 84.5 84.2 84.0 84.2 84.0 83.7 83.2 83.3 83.4 83.5 84.3 1953 .•.•.•.•.•••.• 84.1 84.7 84.7 84.0 83.1 83.8 83.8 83.6 83.1 82.9 83.0 82.2 1954 ...•...... •... 82.0 82.0 81.0 81.1 80.8 80.7 80.6 . 80.8 80.9 80.6 80.7 80.6 1955 ...... 81.0 81.0 81.2 81.2 81.6 81.5 82.1 82.0 82.4 82.3 82.5 82.7 1956 ...... 82.9 82.6 82.5 82.5 82.4 82.3 82.2 82.3 82.1 82.0 81.7 81.7 19'57 ..•..•.•.....• 81.5 81.9 82.2 81.8 81.7 81.8 81.8 81.2 81.0 80.7 80.1 80.1 1958 ..••.•.....••• 79.3 78.7 78.3 78.1 78.3 78.1 78.2 78.3 78.6 78.9 78.7 78.6 1959 ...... 78.8 78.7 79.3 79.8 79.6 79.5 79.8 79.4 79.3 79.2 78.6 79.7 1960 ...... •.• 79.4 79.6 78.5 79.4 79.2 78.9 78.7 78.7 78.9 78.5 78.7 78.1 ~ If 77 .8 CO 1961 .••.•.....•.•• 78.0 17 .4 17 .6 77.2 17 .3 17 .7 17 .3 17 .6' 77. 77.5 17 .9 C11 1962 ..•....•..•.•• 17 .8 78.2 78.2 17.7 78.1 77.8 17 .5 17.7 77.7 77.7 77 .2 77 .2 1963 .••...... 17 .0 76.7 17 .0 17 .1 77 .0 77.1 17 .3 17 .3 77.4 77 .2 17 .1 76.9 1964 .•••••••...... 76.9 77.1 17 .1 77.4 77.7 77.1 77 .5 77.3 77 .4 77 .3 77.3 77 .1 1965 .....•.••••••• 77 .2 77 .3 77 .4 17 .5 77 .8 77.3 77 .7 77 .5 77 .3 17 .6 77 .6 77.7 1966 ..•••.••...•.. 77 .8 77 .7 77 .7 78.0 77 .8 18.0 77.9 77 .9 77 .7 77 .9 78.0 77 .9 1967 .••••...... 78.1 77 .9 77.7 77 .8 77 .8 78.1 78.2 78.1 78.0 78.0 77.9 77.9 1968 ...... • 77 .4 77 .7 77 .6 77.8 77 .9 78.0 78.0 78.0 77.7 77.7 77 .6 77.9 1969 .••.....•••••• 77.7 77 .9 77 .8 77.7 77 .5 77.6 71.4 71.7. 71.6 71.5 71.5' 77.3 1970 ...... ••••.••• 71.3 77.1 71.1 16.1 76.6 76.0 76.0 75.7 75.7 75.4 75.4 75.2 1971 •.•...... ••.• 75.1 74.9 74.7 75.1 75.1 74.6 75.0 74.9 74.8 74.7 74.9 74.7 1972 ••••••••.•.•.• 74.6 74.6 74.9 74.9 74.9 15.1 15.1 75.3 75.1 75.0 75.1 75.4 1973 •••••.••••.... 75.1 75.4 75.7 75.5 75.3 75.6 75.7 75.4 75.4 75.7 75.8 75.8 1974 ...... 76.0 75.8 75.5 75.1 75.3. 75.0 74.8 74.7 74.6 74.4 74.1 73.4 1975 ...... •. 72.6 72.2 71.9 71.6 71.7 71.3 71.7 11.8 71.6 71 .5 71 .4 71.4 1916 •.••...••.••.. 71.8 71.9 71.9 72.2 72.2 71.8 72.1 72.3 72.1 72.1 72.0 72.0 1971 •...... •.•••. 72.1 72.2 72.3 72.6 72.6 72.8 72.8 72.9 72.8 73.2 73.5 73.6 1978 .•...... •.••.• 73.5 73.4 73.3 73.6 73.8 74.1 73.8 73.9 13.7 73.8 74.1 73.9 1979 ...•...•.•.... 74.2 74.3 74.0 73.9 73.8 74.0 73.9 73.7 73.9 73.5 73.4 13.5 1980 •••••••••••... 73.3 73.4 73.0 72.3 71.9 71.5 71.4 71 .4 71 .4 71 .6 71.6 71.7 1981 ••..•••••..... 71.7 71.6 71.8 72.1 71.9 71.1 71.5 71.4 71 .1 70.8 70.5 70.0 1982 ...... •••.•. 69.9 69.9 69.6 69.5 69.7 68.9 68.8 68.8 68 :6 68.4 68.2 68.0 1983 .....•...... 67.9 67.8 67.9 68.0 68.1 68.9 69.2 69.2 69.3 69.4 69.8 70.0 1984 ...... •... 10.0 70.3 70.4 70.4 7P,7 71.1 70.8 70.7 70.9 70. oj 71 .0 71.0 1985 ...... 70.8 70.8 71.0 11.0 7 •• 1 7~ .6 70.7' 70.9 71 .0 71 .0 71 .0 70.9 1986 ...... •• , 11.3 71. 0 71.0 70.9 7".8 70.9 70.9 70.9 70.9 70.8 71 .1 71.2 f}1'3 . 'II. " AUG, SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. ANNUAL CTVILTAN EMPLOYMENT-POPULATION RATIO - WOMEN16 YEARS AND OVER AG SET OC. NV DC.ANNUALE JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY .0 77 ORIGINAL 47.7 48.1 48.2 480 7. 47.6 47.6 47.6 47.4 47.4 47.6 47.4 48.0 1980 ...... 47.6 48.0 48.2 48.1 47.6 48.3 48.4 48.0 . 47.3 47.6 47.9 48.2 48.2 47.8 4.7.7 1981.... 47.7 47.8 48.0 47.9 47.8 47.9 47.9 1982 ...... 47.1 47.2 47.5 47.4 48.7 48.9 49.1 49.1 48.0 47.0 47.2 47.5 47.4 47.8 48.3 48.5 50.3 49.5 1983247.0 49.8 50.1 49.5 49.6 50.0 50.2 .48.1 48.6 48. 49.2 49.7 51.2 51.3 50.4 1984 50.2 50.1 50.2 50.5 50.3 50.5 51.1 1985 ...... 48. 5 48.9 50.3 51.4 51.6 52.0 51.8 51.6 52.2 52.1 52.1 1986 . 50.3 50.3 50.8 50.8 51.0 1971...... 50.3 50.34 0. , SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 31.9 32.0 31.3 31.7 31.1 31.3 31.6 - . 30.9 31.0 30.7 31.6 30.9 31.3 - 1948 . 4 2 .6 30.744 .79 31.1431.1 31.2 31.1 31.3 31.6 1 749...... 312. 3 4 231.5 31 .57 . 31.09 32.0 32.6 32.6 32.4 9 31.1 31.0 32.1 31.6 32.1 31.8 32.5 1950..9...... 31.12 32.7 33.8 33.3 32.9 33.2 33.1 33.6 - . 32.7 32.6 33.3 32.9 33.2 34.2 33.8 - 1951 . 33. 33.3 33.4 33.1 33.1 34.2 33.3 1952 . . 33.7 33.5 32.9 1 33.1 33.1 32.6 31.9 - 34.1 33.6 33.1 33.7 33.6 33.2 32.8 32.7 32.3 - 1953. . 34.1 33.9 32.9 32 .7 32.4 -32.2 31.9 32.1 32.7 1954.... . 5.931 33.0 34.7 35.2 - 33.6 3.3 3..... 34.2 4.64. 34.4 34.5 19528 328 35.4 35.2 35.1 35.2 34.5 S5.2 35.1 35.0 35.2 196 .. .. 35.0 34.8 34.9 35.2 35.2 35.0 35.3 35.4 35.0 34.9 35.0 35.4 34.6 - 1957 . ... 34.9 35.4 34.5 34.6 34.5 34.3 34.6 34.4 34.5 34.6 1958. . ~~~~34.734.6 34.6 34.9 35.1 34.9 35.1 34.6 34.8 35.0 35.0 35.2 35.0 35.0 1959.... . 3.:..4.8 35.8 35.7 36.1 35.3 35.7 35.6 -_ 34.9 35.1 34.5 35.7 35.8 36.2 -t 1960...... 35.6 35.2 35.3 34.9 35.3 35.3 35.1 35.5 35.6 35.8 35.3 35.2 -0 1961...... :.. 35.6 35.4 35.8 35.9 35.6 35.5 35.4 35.4 35.6 35.5 35.5 35.5 36.0 35.9 - 1962...... 36.0 35.9 35.7 35.8 35.6 35.8 36.8 1963...... 35.6 35.7 35.8 36.2 36.2 36.3 36.4 - 4.147 24762462 414 336.2 4 7 4 7470 36.72 480 36.6 36.5 36.2 36.4 1964...... 1950 .. ,ww4...... 4 535.9 36.3 37.3 37.2 37.5 37.5 37.8 - 36.4 36.4 36.6 36.7 36.9 37.2 37.4 39.0 1965...... 37.9 38.1 30.2 38.5 38.7 30.8 39.2 1966.... . 3...7.8 37.7 37.7 37.9 39.3 39.4 39.7 - 38.4 38.9 38.7 38.9 39.0 39.2 39.2 1967...... 38.6 38.6 39.7 39.5 39.8 39.7 39.9 39.9 - 39.3 39.5 39.4 40.0 39.9 - 1968. . ~~~~38.9 40.9 40.9 40.8 41.1 41097 4.1. 39.9 40.3 40.4 40.5 40.449 33.540.8 98 4. 95 40.74. 48.5 48.4 - 1969...... 32.9 49.8 49.0 393 3.340.6 40.7 40.O9 40.8 4.8.5 - 19551970...... 41.1 41.0 41.0 41 .2 400 0. 484 85 4.7 88 40.4 40.2 .40 .2 40.2 39.9 41.3 - 1971...... 40.6 410 409 40.9 41.0 40.9 4.40.9 41.126 4. 192 . 408 408 410 41409 .9 42.1 42.39 21 4. 22 1973 .... . 41.0 41.6 41.70 42.8 42.7 42.6 42.3 42.15 423 426 427 427 426 427 43.0 42.3422 2. 2. 194 . 42.0 41.7 41.7 41. 4194.9 42.1422 423. 43.61 1975 .... . 431 434 433 43.0 43.3 45.2 443.2 51 4. 196 . 427 428 430 442 .7 44.6 44.47 44 4. 48 1977 .... . 423. 43.8 44.0 46.4 46.7 47.8 47.0 47.14 455 457 458 462 463 465 46.375 4. 76 4. 79 4. 198 . 4175 471 .8 47.2 47.29 - 1979 .... . 47.1 417. 475 43.5 47.5 47.6 47.6 47.7 47.6 190 . 480 479 478 477 476 48.1 48.1 48.1 47.5 47.9 47.9 47.63 1981...... :, 47.8 48.8 48.1 48.3 48.4 47.8 47.8 47.8 47.8 47.5 47.5 47.50 1982. . 47.7 47.3 47.7 47.6 47.8 48.0 48.4 4.8.7 48.5 48.7 48.8 - 47.7 47.5 47.6 47.5 47.7 - 1983 ... .. 47.5 49.8 49.8 49.5 49.5 49.6 49.7 49.9 . . 48.7 49.85 9. 49.3 49.9 58.8 58.9 - 1984 ..... 50.4 50.3 60.1 50.2 50.3 50.6 50.7 1985 ...... 508.1 590. 590. 51.8 51.6 51.8 51.7 51.7 50.9 50.8 50.9 51.0 51.2 51.5 51.7 1986 196...... j5 . •Y8 0. CIVILIAII EMPLOYMENT-POPULATION RATIO - WHITE WORKERS JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. ANNUAL AVERAGE CRIGINAL 1980 ...... 59.7 59.7 59.9 59.8 59.9 60.4 60.7 60.3 59.8 60.2 60.0 59.8 60.0 1981 ...... 58.9 59.1 59.6 60.1 60.4 60.7 61.3 60.9 59.8 60.2 59.7 59.1 60.0 1982 ...... 58.0 58.1 58.4 58.6 59.2 59.6 59.9 59.6 58.9 58.8 58.5 58.1 58.8 1983 ...... 57.1 57.0 57.4 57.9 58.3 59.6 60.3 60.2 59.7 59.9 60.0 59.8 58.9 198i ...... 58.8 59.0 59.5 60.0 60.6 61.6 61.9 61.2 60.7 68.9 60.8 68.7 60.5 1935 ...... 59.6 59.9 60.4 60.6 60.9 61.4 61.9 61.7 61.3 61 .6 61.5 61 .2 61.0 1936 ...... 60.4 60.1 60.6 60.9 61.3 62.3 62.7 62.6 61.8 62.0 61.9 61.7 61.5

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AO' 7 b)I0 1954 ...... 55.5 56.1 55.8 55.3 55.1 54.9 54.7 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.4 55.1 1955 ...... 55.6 55.8 55.7 56.1 56.1 56.1 56.7 57.0 56.8 57.0 57.1 57.3 1956 ...... 57.5 57.2 57.1 57.2 57.4 57.4 57.3 57.4 57.4 57.2 57.2 57.0 1957 ...... 56.9 57.2 57.3 56.9 56.8 57.0 57.2 56.7 56.7 56.6 56.3 56.4 1950 ...... 55.8 55.5 55.3 55.1 55.2 55.0 55.0 55.2 55.2 55.3 55.4 5S 1959 ...... 55.6 55.5 55.8 56.1 56.0 56.0 56.1 55.9 55.8 55.9 55.5 56.1 1960 ...... 55.9 56.1 55.4 56.2 56.2 56.1 56.0 55.8 56.1 55.5 55.9 5S.S 1961 ...... 5.S 55.3 55.5 55.2 55.1 55.5 55.1 55.2 54.9 55.1 55.4 55.2 1962 ...... 55.4 55.6 55.5 55.5 55.5 55.5 55.2 55.5 55.6 55.4 55.1 55S2 1963 ...... 55.1 55.1 55.2 55.3 55.2 55.2 55.3 55.2 55.4 55.5 55.3 55.2 1964 ...... 55.2 55.4 55.4 55.8 55.9 55.5 55.6 55.6 55.5 55.4 55.4 5S.S 1965 ...... 55.6 55.7 55.8 55.8 56.0 56.0 56.3 56.0 55.9 56.1 56.1 56.4 1966 ...... 56.5 56.4 56.4 56.5 56.6 56.7 56.7 56.9 56.8 57.0 57.3 57.2 1967 ...... 57.0 56.9 56.8 56.9 56.9 57.1 57.3 57.5 57.3 57.4 57.3 57.5 1968 ...... 56.9 57.2 57.3 57.3 57.7 57.7 57.6 57.5 57.5 57.4 57.6 576 - 1969 ...... 57.5 57.9 57.9 57.9 57.8 58.1 58.0 58.1 58.0 58.0 58.0 58.1 1970 ...... 58.0 57.9 58.0 57.9 57.5 57.3 57.4 57.3 57.1 57.2 57.0 56.9 1971 ...... 57.0 56.8 56.6 56.8 56.8 56.4 56.7 56.8 56.8 56.9 57.0 57.1 1972 ...... 57.2 57.1 57.3 57.2 57.3 57.3 57.3 57.5 57.4 57.4 57.5 57.7 1973 ...... 57.4 57.8 58.1 58.1 58.1 58.4 58.3 58.1 58.3 58.5 58.6 58.5 1974 ...... 58.5 58.6 58.6 58.4 58.4 58.4 58.5 58.3 58.2 58.1 57.8 57.5 1975 ...... 57.0 56.7 56.6 56.5 56.6 56.5 56.7 56.8 56.7 56.7 56.6 56.7 1976 ...... 57.1 57.3 57.3 57.5 57.6 57.5 57.7 57.7 57.6 57.6 57.6 57 7 1977 ...... 57.7 58.0 58.2 58.4 58.6 58.6 58.6 58.8 58.8 59.0 59.3 59 4 1978 ...... 59.5 59.5 59.5 59.8 59.9 60.3 60.0 60.1 60.1 60.3 60.4 60.5 1979 ...... 60.7 60.9 60.7 60.5 60.5 60.6 60.7 60.4 60.7 60.6 60.6 60.9 1980 ...... 60.8 60.8 60.6 60.2 60.0 59.7 59.6 59.5 59.7 59.8 59.8 59.9 1981 ...... 60.0 60.2 60.2 60.4 60.5 60.0 60.1 60.1 59.6 59.8 59.5 59 2 1982 ...... 59.1 59.2 59.1 59.0 59.3 58.9 58.8 58.8 58.7 58.5 58.3 58.2 - 1983 ...... 58.2 58.1 58.1 58.3 58.4 58.9 59.1 59.3 59.5 59.5 59.8 60.0 - 1984 ...... 59.9 60.1 60.2 60.3 60.7 60.9 60.7 60.4 60.5 60.6 60.6 60.8 - 1985 ...... 60.7 61.0 61.1 61.0 61.0 60.6 60.8 60.8 61.1 61.2 61.3 61.3 - 1986 ...... 61.4 61.2 61.3 61.3 61.4 61.6 61.6 61.8 61.6 61.7 61.7 61.8 - {6s.q b; CaVILIANI EMPLOYMENT-POPULATION RATIO - WHITE MEN 16 YEARS AND OVER JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. ANNUAL A VER AGE 1980 ...... 72.9 73.0 73.1 73.0 73.3 74.6 75.1 74.5 73.0 73.3 72.8 72.5 73.4 1911 ...... 71.4 71.3 72.0 72.8 73.3 74.3 75.4 74.7 72.9 72.7 71.9 71.0 72.8 1982 ...... 69.7 69.6 69.9 70.4 71.4 72.1 72.6 72.2 70.6 70.4 69.6 69.0 70.6 1933 ...... 67.8 67.6 68.2 68.9 69.8 72.0 73.0 72.6 71.2 71.3 71.2 70.9 70.4 984 . 69. 70.0 70.7 71.3 72.2 74.1 74.5 73.9 72.7 72.5 72.2 71.8 72.1 1985 ...... 70.5 70.5 71.2 71.8 72.6 73.4 74.1 73.9 72.7 72.7 72.3 71.7 72.3 1986 ...... 71.0 70.6 71.1 71.7 72.2 73.6 74.2 74.0 72.6 72.4 72.3 72.0 72.3 D,9' ,7/§ SEASOPALLY ADJUSTED 1954...... 82.6 82.7 82.0 81.5 81.3 81.1 81.0 81.1 80.9 81.0 81.3 81.2 - 1955 ...... 81.6 81.8 81.8 81.8 82.1 81.8 82.3 82.4 82.6 82.7 82.8 82.9 - 1956 ...... 83.4 83.0 83.0 82.9 82.7 82.7 82.6 82.7 82.5 82.4 82.3 82.2 - 1957 ...... 82.1 82.4 82.6 82.1 82.0 82.3 82.1 81.7 81.5 81.3 80.7 80.6 - 195 8 ...... 80.0 79.5 79.0 78.8 79.0 78.8 78.8 79.0 79.2 79.5 79.3 79.3 - 1959 ...... 79.4 79.5 79.9 88.4 88.2 88.1 80.4 88.0 79.9 79.8 79.2 80.2 - 1960 .80.1 80.2 79.3 80.0 79.8 79.4 79.2 79.1 79.2 78.8 79.1 78.6 1961 ...... 78.5 78.1 78.3 77.9 77.8 78.3 78.0 78.3 78.0 78.2 78.5 78.5 - 1962 ...... 78.5 78.8 78.8 78.5 7Z.7 78.5 78.1 78.3 78.3 78.3 77.7 77.9 - 1963 ...... 77.6 77.5 77.6 77.6 77.5 77.8 77.9 77.8 78.1 77.8 77.7 77.5 - 1964 ...... 77.5 77.6 77.5 77.9 78.1 77.6 78.0 77.8 77.9 77.6 77.8 77.7 - 1965 ...... 77.7 77.9 77.9 78.0 78.2 77.8 78.2 77.9 77.8 77.9 77.9 78.2 - 1966 ...... 78.2 78.1 78.3 78.4 78.2 78.5 78.2 78.3 78.1 78.3 78.4 78.4 - 1967 ...... 78.5 78.4 78.3 78.2 78.3 78.4 78.7 78.8 78.5 78.5 78.3 78.3 - 1968 ...... 77.9 78.2 78.1 78.3 78.4 78.5 78.6 78.6 78.2 78.2 78.1 78.4 - 1969 ...... 78.2 78.4 78.3 78.3 78.1 78.1 78.0 78.3 78.2 77.9 78.0 77.9 - 1970 ...... 77.7 77.6 77.7 77.4 77.2 76.7 76.6 76.3 76.3 76.1 76.1 75.9 - 1971 ...... 75.8 75.7 75.4 75.8 75.9 75.5 75.8 75.8 75.6 75.6 75.7 75.7 - 1972 ...... 75.7 75.6 75.8 75.8 75.8 76.0 76.0 76.2 76.1 76.0 76.1 76.3 - 1973...... 76.0 76.3 76.7 76.4 76.2 76.6 76.7 76.3 76.4 76.6 76.6 76.6 - 1974 .76.7 76.7 76.5 76.1 76.3 76.2 75.8 75.7 75.7 75.5 75.2 74.5 1975 ...... 73.7 73.4 73.2 73.0 73.0 72.7 72.9 73.0 72.8 72.7 72.6 72.7 - 1976 ...... 73.0 73.3 73.3 73.6 73.5 73.3 73.4 73.6 73.3 73.4 73.2 73.3 - 1977 ...... 73.3 73.5 73.6 73.9 74.0 74.2 74.2 74.3 74.2 74.6 74.8 74.9 - 1978 ...... 74.8 74.7 74.6 75.0 75.1 75.4 75.0 75.2 74.8 74.9 75.3 75.1 - 1979 ...... 75.5 75.7 75.3 75.2 75.1 75.2 75.1 74.7 74.8 74.6 74.6 74.8 - 1930 ...... 74.6 74.9 74.4 73.7 73.4 73.0 72.8 72.7 72.7 72.9 72.9 73.1 - 191 ...... 73.1 73.2 73.3 73.5 73.3 72.8 73.1 72.9 72.6 72.4 72.0 71.6 - 1932 ...... 71.4 71.5 71.2 71.0 71.4 70.6 70.3 70.4 70.3 70.1 69.8 69.6 - 193 .... I ...... 69.5 69.4 69.3 69.5 69.8 70.6 70.8 70.8 70.9 - 71.0 71.4 71.6 1914 ...... 71.5 71.7 71.8 71.9 72.1 72.7 72.4 72.1 72.3 72.3 72.3 72.4 1965 ...... 72.2 72.2 72.4 72.4 72.6 72.0 72.1 72.1 72.4 72.5 72.4 72.3 1916 ...... 72.6 72.3 72.2 72.2 72.1 72.2 72.1 72.3 72.3 72.2 72.4 72.6 -T's 7S2, 1 '!LI:: EVPLOYMIENT-POPULATION RATIO -WHITE WOMEN 16 YEARS AND OVER MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY' AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. ANNUAL JAN. FEB. AVERAGE IsG: I.!' .2...... 47.7 47.7 47.9 47.9 47.6 47.5 47.6 47.4 47.8 48.3 48.4 48.3 47.8 ...... 47.5 47.9 48.3 48.5 48.6 48.3 48.4 48.4 47.9 48.8 48.7 48.3 48.3 :9~22...... 47.4 47.6 47.9 48.8 48.1 48.2 48.4 48.2 48.3 48.3 48.4 4R.2 48.1 ...... 47.4 47.4 47.7 47.N 47.8 48.1 48.7 48.9 49.2 49.5 49.8 49.7 48.5 :124.... ,. .. 48.6 49.8 49.3 49.6 58.1 50.1 50.4 49,.7 '49.8 50.3 58.4 50.5 49.8 92...... 49.7 50.2 58.5 50.4 50.2 58.3 58.7 58.5 50.9 51.4 51.6 51.5 50.7 -6 ...... 58.6-. 50.5 51.0 51.1 51.3 51.9 52.1 52.1 51.9 52.5 82.4 52.4 51.7

.9; !.LLY1 ADJuSTED309 3. 315 15 3i9 15 :11~ ...... 30.9 31.9 32.1 31.5 31.1 31.1 109 1. 3.5 15 3.9 15 - .755...... 32.1 32.2 32.1 32.7 12.4 32.7 33.4 33.9 33.4 33.6 33.7 34.8 -7 ...... 3.0 34. 34.3 34.0 33.8 34.1 34.6 34.0 34.3 34.3 342 4. - 11~3...... 33.7 33.7 33.8 33.6 33.7 33.5 33.4 .33.6 33.5 33.4 33.6 33.8 - ,L9 ...... 34.8 33.7 33.9 34.8 34.8 34.2 34.1 34.1 34.0 34.3 33.9 34.2 - 33.9 34.2 33.8 34.7 34.9 35.0 34.9 34.7- 35.1 34.3 34.8 34.6 - ...... 34.7 34.7 35.0 34.6 34.5 34.8 34.3 34.4 34.1 34.3 34. 343 ...... 34.6 34.7 34.7 34.7 34.7 34.8 34.6 35.0 35.1 34.7 34.7 34.7 - ...... 34.7 34.9 35.0 35.2 35.1 34.9 35.8 34.8 35.0 35.3 35.1 35.0 - ' ...... 35i 35. 35.5 35.9 35.9 35.6 35.4 35.5 35.3 35.3 352 35.5

95L7...... 37.8 37.8 37.7 38.1 38.0 38.2 38.3 38.5 38.6 38.6 38.7 30.9 - ...... 38.3 38.6 38.8 38.7 39.2 39.3 39.0 38.8 39.1 39.0 39.3 39.2 - ...... 39.2 39.6 39.7 39.9 39.9 40.3 40.3 40.2 40.2 40.4 40.4 40.5 - 1970 ...... 40.5 40.5 40.5 40.6 40.0 40.1 40.4 40.3 40.0 40.3 40.1 40.0 - 1971...... 40.3 40.0 39.7 39.7 39.7 39.4 39.5 39.8 39.9 48.0 40.3 40.5 - 1972 ...... 40.5 40.5 40.6 40.6 48.7 40.5 40.6 40.8 48.7 40.7 40.8 40.9 - 1973 ...... 40.8 41.2 41.4 41.6 41.8 42.1 41.8 41.8 42.0 42.2 42.4 42.2 - 1974 ...... 42.0 42.3 42.5 42.5 42.4 42.4 42.9 42.5 42.4 42.4 42.2 42.1 - 19753...... 42.0 41.6 41.7 41.7 41.7 41.8 42.0 42.1 42.2 42.2 42.2 42.3 - 1976 ...... 4? 42.7 42.8 42.9 43.3 43.3 43.5 43.3 43.3 43.3 43.5 43.7 - 1977 ...... 43.6 43.9 44.1 44.3 44.6 44.5 44.5 44.6 44.8 44.9 45.3 45.2 - 1978 ...... 45.5 45.6 45.7 46.1 46.2 46.5 46.4 46.3 46.7 47.1 47.0 47.1 - 1979 ...... 47.2 47.4 47.4 47.2 47.3 47.3 47.6 47.4 47.8 47.8 47.9 48.1 - 19300...... 48.2 48.0 40.0 47.9 47.7 47.6 47.6 47.5 47.8 47.8 47.9 47.8 - 1981 ...... 40.0 48.3 48.4 48.5 48.7 48.4 48.4 48.5 47.8 48.3 48.2 47.9 - 19Z2...... 40.0 48.0 48.1 48.1 48.3 40.3 48.3 48.3 48.2 47.9 47.9 47.08 1923 ...... 47.9 47.8 47.9 48.0 48.0 48.2 40.5 48.9 49.1 49.1 49.3 49.4 - 19C4 ...... 49.2 49.5 49.5 49.7 50.3 50.0 50.1 49.7 49.7 49.8 49.9 50.1 - 1985 ...... 50.3 50.7 58.8 50.6 58.5 50.3 50.4 58.5 00.8 51.0 51.1 51.1 - 19'6 ...... 51.2 51.0 51.2 51.3 51.5 51.9 52.0 52.2 51.9 52.0 51.9 52.0 - OC. NV DC.A UA CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT-POPULATION RATIO- BLACK WORKERSSET NV E. ANNUALE JAN. PEE. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SET C.

52.0 52.2 53.4 53.3 51.9 52.3 52.2 51.9 52.3 ORIG5.1 520NA.L5.8 51.2 50.3 51.3 521. 520. 551. 5199 51. 51. 52.5 51.7 51.1 51.3 19801...... 48.8 49.4 49.1 49.0 48.8 49.4 49.6 50.8 50.7 49.3 49.1 49.2 1982 ...... 49.5 50.3 49.9 50.5 50.2 49.5 .. 47.8 48.3 48.4 48.3 48.9 49.6 51.3 50.8 1983 ...... 52.9 53.4 53.9 53.1 53.2 53.8 53.4 52.3 1914 . ~~~~49.650.7 50.6 50.7 52.1 53.4 53.9 53.4 52.5 51.0 52.5 52.9 53.2 54.2 54.6 54.8 53.4 53.5 19845...... 54.3 53.8 54.3 5. 45 3. 1986 ...... 53.1..- 52.8 53.5 53.9 54.5 54.8 53.4

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 53.6 53.6 53.2 54.1 54.4 - 1972 ...... 53.0 53.2 53.7 53.8 53.9 54.4 53.5 54.7 54.3 53.9 53.9 54.8 54.7 54.4 SS.1 54.9 54.9 - 1973 ...... S3.7 54.6 51.4 - 54,.5 33.6 54.0 54.1 53.6 53.4 53.4 53.5 53.3 52.1 1974 ...... 55.1 30.0 - 50.4 50.1 49.6 50.0 50.1 50.3 50.0 50.1 49.9 50.0 1975 ...... 50.9 51.2 51.0 - 50.3 50.5 51.1 5i.3 51.1 50.5 50.5 50.9 50.6 50.5 1976 ...... 51.2 51.2 51.1 51.5 52.9 - 1977 ...... 51.0 51.2 51.2 51.7 51.4 51.7 51.0 53.4 53.4 53.6 53.9 53.5 53.7 54.2 54.2 53.8 53.8 - 1978 ...... 52.7 53.2 53.7 - 53.5 54.0 53.5 53.4 53.9 54.1 53.7 54.1 54.1 53.8 1979 ...... 53.6 51.9 51.8 - 53.3 53.1 52.7 52.4 52.2 51.8 52.0 52.1 51.8 51.9 1900 ...... 50.9 51.0 50.9 50.5 - .. 52.2 51.7 51.9 52.5 52.0 51.0 51.1 50.5 1981 ...... 49.4 49.2 49.4 49.5 49.2 48.9 49.0 48.8 - 1902 . 50.5 30.2 4V.8 ~~~49.5 49.7 50.2 49.0 50.3 50.3 - 1983 .4...... 0.8 5 9.3 49.1 48.94 89 4. 49.9 536 3. - 50.6 51.0 51.3 51.2 52.1 52.4 52.0 52.9 53.0 53.1 1984 ...... 53.2 53.9 - 53.5 52.9 53.2 53.4 53.1 53.6 53.3 53.9 53.4 53.5 1985 ...... 53.5 53.8 54.2 54.2 54.4 - 1986 ...... 54.1 53.9 54.2 54.3 54.3 54.2 54.1 RATIO- BLACK MEN 16 YEARS AND OVER CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT-POPUI.ATION NOV. DEC. ANNUAL JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. AVERAGE

597NA.L6.0 60.3 61.0 61.9 61.6 59.8 60.6 60.2 59.6 60.4 ORIG5.9 59.3 58.9 57.8 57.1 59.1 19801...... 589 5.9 59.76.1 59.60 04 5. 60.7 60.1 56.6 58.2 57.8 55.5 55.3 55.7 54.1 56.0 1902 . ~~~~~~55.455.4 55.6 55.8 56.4 57.3 58.3 57.5 56.3 19823.53.3 53.6...3 54.....0 57.2 58.8 58.1 57.2 57.0 59.3 59.9 60.5 61.4 60.2 60.3 60.8 59.5 59.2 1984 ...... 56.5 57.6 57.3 60.0 58.3 57.8 58.4 58.9 59.9 61.1 62.1 62.9 60.6 60.0 S9.7 59.7 1985 ...... 68.3 60.5 60.8 60.6 1986 ...... 59.2 S8.7 59.7 60.1 61.5 62.0 62.7 61.5 60.1

670 6. 68 6. 68 6. 68 6. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 67.0 68.506. 67.2968666 6. 67.23 1- 1972 ...... 65.1 65.7 66.7 67.1 67.480 6.9 68.30 1973 ...... 66.7 67.8 68.0 67.5 67.0 67.1 67.4 67.4 68.6 67.6 67.0 66.6 6-:.6 65.7 65.6 65.2 64.8 65.3 641 3. - 1974 ...... 60.1 59.7 - 1975 . 61.4 60.6 59.7 63.4 60.1 60.8 60.7 60.7 60.2 ~~~~~~62.1 68.8 60.6 609 1. - 197 6...... 6 0.2 68.1 60. 0 60.9 60.9 59.9 60.5 61.1 61.5 61.8 61.7 62.3 60.9 62.0 61.1 60.8 68.3 60.6 61.6 62.6 - 1977 ...... 63.5 - 1978 . 62.8 63.3 63.2 63.3 63.5 63.7 62.6 63.6 63.8 63.5 ~~~~~~62.5 37 629 26 - 1979 ...... 63.2 63.1 63.2 62.9 63.4 63.8 639 4. 6.4 61.6 61.3 60.9 60.3 59.8 59.9 59.7 59.5 60.0 60.1 59.9 - 1980 . ~~~~~~61.9 5. 7S S. 1981 ...... 60.3 39.8 68.2 60.3 60.5 3. 87 S. 89 56.8 56.6 36.4 5S.5 56.1 56.0 53.1 33.0 53.3 54.6 - 1982 ...... S7.1 57.2 S8.0 - S5.3 55.4 S5.2 54.9 56.1 56.7 56.4 56.9 57.1 58.8 1983 ...... 55.0 60.0 - . 59.4 38.3 57.7 S9.2 58.7 58.4 59.7 39.9 60.2 60.6 1984 ~~~~~~58.1 60.0 59.5 60.1 - 19845..S..... 9.9 59.6 59.5 59.6 59.6 59.9 60.0 61.3 68.4 60.9.60.9 61.1 60.7 60.6 S9.9 60.0 60.3 60.4 61.2 - 1986.60.8.60.4 o /7 CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT-POPULATION RATIO -BLA.CK WOMEN 16 YEARS AND OVER AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. ANNUAL JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AVERAGE ORIGINAL 4. 66 4. 57 4. 57 4. 1980 ...... 45.9 45.8 45.3 45.1 45.3 45.1 4. 66 4. 57 4. 57 4. 1981 ...... 45.3 44.7 44.7 45.7 44.8 44.8 45.8 45.0 44.6 45.2 45.9 45.3 45.1 1912 ...... 44.8 44.0 43.7 43.) 43.8 44.0 44.9 45.0 44.4 44.) 44.0 44.5 44.2 1983 ...... 43.4 44.8 43.6 43.3 44.0 43.6 45.2 44.9 44.8 44.0 4.4.3 44.4 44.) 1984 ...... 44.I 45.2 45.2 45.7 46.3 47.2 47.6 47.9 47.4 47.5 48.1 48.5 46.7 1985 ...... 47.9 47.0 4.7.8 48.1 47.9 48.5 48.6 48.2 4.7.6 48.3 48.3 49.2 4.8.) 1986 ...... 48.) 48.8 48.5 48.9 48.9 48.9 49.4 48.5 48.6 49.4 49.4 49.4 48.8

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED426 24 427 23 437 39 1972 ...... 43.) 42.9 42.9 43.0 43.2 42.9 426 4.44. 23 43.7 43.90 1973 ...... 43.) 43.8 43.8 43.5 43.3 43.) 44.5 44.4 4.3.9 44.4 4.2 40 - 1974 ...... 44.0 43.9 42.9 43.7 43.9 43.8 43.6 43.9 44.3 43.5 42.3 42.0 - 1975 ...... 41.8 41.4 41.6 41.4 41.5 42.0 41.7 41.4 41.4 41.6 41.8 42.1 1976 ...... 42.6 42.6 43.8 43.4 43.) 42.8 42.4 42.5 42.3 42.2 43.3 42.7 - 1977 ...... 42.5 42.5 42.8 43.) 43.7 43.3 42.9 43.5 43.8 43.5- 43.3 45.0 - 1978 ...... 44.8 45.4 45.4 45.6 45.7 46.1 45.3 46.6 46.7 46.5 46.0 46.80 1979 ...... 45.8 45.8 46.6 45.9 45.4 45.8 46.3 45.3 45.9 46.4 46.5 46.6 - 1980 ...... 46.4 4,6.3 45.8 45.6 45.7 45.4 45.7 46.0 45.7 45.4 4S.3 45.2 - 198) ...... 45.7 45.2 45.2 46.3 45.2 45.) 45.0 44.3 44.6 45.8 45.6 44.9 - 1982 ...... 45.2 44.5 44.2 43.7 44.0 44.2 44.0 44.3 44.4 44.0 43.8 44.1 - 1983 ...... 43.8 44.5 44.0 43.8 44.) 43.7 44.4 44.3 44.8 43.9 44.2 44.) 1984 ...... 44.4 45.7 45.5 46.0 46.3 47.2 46.9 47.4 47.S 47.4 48.0 48.1 - 19853...... 48.4 47.5 48.) 48.3 47.9 48.5 47.9 47.8 47.7 48.2 48.) 48.8 - 1986 ...... 48.5 48.6 48.7 48.9 48.9 48.8 48.8 48.3 48.9 49.3 49.2 49.0 - ,/p ' 203 Senator SARBANES. Well, why don't you give me what you have now? What do you have for the black population? Mrs. NORWOOD. The black population, of course, has a much lower employment-population ratio than the white. Overall, it's 54.5. For adult men, it is 65.7. For adult women, it is 52.0; and for teenagers, it is 24.2. Senator SARBANES. What is the figure for white teenagers? You didn't give me that before. Mrs. NORWOOD. For white teenagers, it is 49.2. There is an enormous difference in the EP ratios of black and white teenagers. Senator SARBANES. Yes, a difference of 49.2 versus 24.2. Mrs. NORWOOD. That's right. I think it's important in analyzing what's going on with the minority population to look both at the unemployment rate and at the employment-population ratio. What that shows, of course, is that there are many fewer black youngsters with jobs. It is true, of course, that their unemployment rates are also much higher than the unemployment rates for whites, but I think the EP ratios show their labor market problems somewhat more dramatically. Senator SARBANES. There is also a very significant difference between white adult males and black adult males? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes, that's been traditional. Senator SARBANES. Of roughly 75 percent versus 65 percent, it that correct? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. Senator SARBANES. Women is about the same? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. What's happened there is rather interesting. In the past white women had lower employment-population ratios. As they have moved into the work force in such large numbers, they have caught up with the employment-population ratios of black women who have always worked. The black men, however, and black teenagers still have very much lower employment-population ratios than whites. Senator SARBANES. SO just over half of all women 20 and older- these are adult women-are working, although the definition of working would be even a couple hours a week? Mrs. NORWOOD. That's correct. Senator SARBANES. What figures do you have on the Hispanic population? Mrs. NORWOOD. For the Hispanics, all we have right now here is a 59.6 overall employment-population ratio. We can supply breakdowns of that for the record. [The following information was subsequently supplied for the record:] PAGF SOARIST TASLAS TO'l JA WI DA TE 520257

TARLE $X - ERPLOTMERT CTATAC OP TAR CIVILIAN RON(RCTITUTIORAL POPALATIOI IT AGS ARE SEX OTARLE TO.

C"A CIVILIAR LASOR F03C RO It LABOR PRICE NOIII TOTAL EMPLOYE D UIS PLO TED DEEP- G 01N0 OR- ISE AGE AID TEX POP TOTALMCGNIC VNO- TOTAL RATE TOTAL ISG TO ARLE ORP ITA EOD ALL COXHES MONTTH. JAX T9S AGAIC MUSE SC" To TOTAL AGRIC ROE- TOTAL PARRN MC0 SORE ASRIC RES. PARR

ALL OPANITO T A. TE AR S 0 2 0 I S 7 1 S 9 7 9 3 T . I D 0 9 ? I L TI 7 1 97 0 7I9 T TA I C- T M 13 0 3 1T .AI 51 1 ;7 I 1 1A A C lI Z OS .1 1 17 4 7A1- TT A TY' 9 0 0 77 5 I S A ID T i AS I T I TI I T I2 T2 07. 9 A 7 TI Al P 00Z R 05 I 0 TO A RED 19 6 53 3 54 lOS i3 OFT s 0 2 0.0 095 53 1 TS 2 17 a a 7 R 1 05TAI 13 75 95 A SCI ST 0. 159ZOT CT T9 SIC S 3 R9S 9 Z RO T IC I SO C TA OS 19 15 ;71 19 1 T 1 T 1T O 20 6 TA .? 5 7A OP T1 2I T T1 I ST S 5 5 1 5 5 2 1- TA T IC 3 763 2RT& 2TI S iDA 2 SC9 12 5 11 .1 SAT 576 A R 2 4 PT 5 SS 5 5

TI-TTIC DOS SO 0T TA 217 T TO? 00 TAO 2 TA 3A S I S O- S4 TRS 4 7 7 2 T0 20 0 TO T R I . 5 I S I0 0 a9 S T6_ TE AM S 90 5 asT 1 9 5 1T I I . T 9 0 54 79 5 5 5 9 5 4 9 T IA TI.0 1 T D.. SA C IST O TT 0 00 OD . 9 77 021 55 6 10 1 0 T RO0 R TR RAJ A CT R E RH 060 019 TTS I TIA ST 07.7 64 1 5 SAT 0 5 5 0 I R S OT ARR" IT lTA S l 700 50 ASS IIT TS.7 13 5 2 01 1 0 TOTl Z TOO I IS O 01 - 9 R aCO P T AR AT1 1 4 7 03 O AT1 1 0 0 1 1 . S S I ! I O T? 26I S 6 A4 A TEAKS 3396 TIT? TIl 9 1401 TA! R. II71 901 TA 129 SbZ a 3 6I5 X ALL SPANISH KALE ISVTOSS 26I TASTI9S 15 9 ITT. 4S ST 3704 IT I57 I SR R SR T m T TAR 5 7 100I 01 T 01 7 SC .4T 215 7 ' I O 1 TI R S I TO A S SO TI 3 26 2 0 0 T OO 13 I TS' IT 03. 1 TS l 1 51 2 3 5 6 5 R 3 2 I . T EAR S 1 1 96 5 9 1 5 15 5 lI Z2 3 9 11 l OS 1 1 .0 0 I TA 55 TO O1 I II1 5 II I1 1 00 0 TR A 5 59 7 13 51 I 10 T I S. 1 1 6 I II2 1 47* a 57 I 01 -34 TinSIT9 0 1 43 6 20 I T lT 0 2 1 1 .1 05 5 IS T AR I5 3 A I AT S TTT I S TS R? 9 0 S 7 9 01 T OT 9 . 7. TO 5~ 2 3 3 9 R R. 3 9 11 -5 R S5 10 .31 1 0I05 3 1 9 . OS IT I 21 9 5 9 AI I T-S I TinS 2 2 9 TI& 1 51 TI 1AS 02 1 1 .1 55 a IT ZR S R OS R D , 6 0 -E S TR R 2 3 A IT O TA T 1 3 IT O TI 6 .9 51 3 3 TO 6 6 71 R 7 S. T A S 15 1 S O 4 5 4 1A TO 19 1 05 14 0 0 5 0 86 5 2 S O R 0 5 I TS R O- O T ~~~~02 ~ ~~10 6 15 I TI 4 5 55 I59 . SaS I SI S S 93a R ICJ A CT'SC m 430 ITS 55 3 SR 09 04.6 ITS ST ITS 0 R S O T E R 19 0 IT S 4 23 53 3 7 9 . I TM1 .! 70 7 0 5 6 0 R Is R S 21- SI TEARS ISIS 3 733 3343 214 1109 390 10.4 080 30 S2 59 IT R T C S 6 5 * T I C KS TIsi s 10 2 9 9 2 9 50 a4 7 TO O 9 .7 I RO II ID ST1 527? I S SO P S S O SDANISH T^@ILS FOR JANA? DATE S2SZA7 PAGE 2 TAULE lI.- EMPLOTYENTSTATUS OF THE CIVILIAN NOMIISTITUTIONAL POPULATION Ea AGE AND SEX TABLE TA. EIV CIVILIAS EOCE LA.O1 SOT It LASOR FOECE A .i. TOTAL EP'LOTRO UIERPLGTEO 00110GEEP U:- OTHER AGE AND SEX POP TOTAL AGOIC SOW- TOTAL RATE TOTAL IRG TO AELE OEPD I-TA HI MONTH. JAR 1917 AGRIC ALL OTHEl HOUSE SC. TO TOTAL AG.IC ASL- TOTAL FAR. "*e- Wong ASAIC MES. PAIR ALL SPANISH FERALE IA. TEARS AT91 lISA ZEST SD Z857 11.1 1EAR J6 357 TI.Z DI9T 2336 406 82 370 A IE-tETEE AT? 5 J &Z11 A ;1 22 II6S Zl00 5 367 387 OZA TAT -o TEA AA 27.9 ZE ITS n22 I *ZI ZO1. I * ° 21* I ASD 0 2? 0 1 28 0 28 25 IA ST -0 TO S AS? ZIS 30 TE TA AID TI S A * I I S I TE T1A 1T S TTA ZR 20.A T Aso 93 0 z A S ZT E z 20. TEAlS TEM ZE9l 2675 TA ZA40 291 9.9 2477 2227 11T 52 TEA I I TAT S O-ZA TnS SI? SE AE A AA2 SA SO IA? TAT Z5A A 0SA Ta 0 25-S VGTE 44A 0 Ia A IS 10T4 97 IT ST I IT A EAT 40AZ T5-4ATEE * AT A A A1 A A1 11 700 AT? * AAT A? A A TEE I? AS-IA A I S S I E IA TPS AZooT 552 A TA? TA 7 4TS J 08 2 TA ZA S J 21 S5- 4 TIE TO 172 I 21 T92 4 IA? 3 1.9 A ZE 2 IT-TETEA 299 ITT 12 AT 0 S AS 0 A ITO I lOT S I., TA ITT, 2 FT IAT5 AS-54 TES 28 0 OAT, T S A 09 .3 l S Z4A 1S 3 E S O I AS. TEARS 2TEJ 5T 4 3 ZI I A 4A 2*1 0 20 18-Z1 TRE E016 A41 3TS 192 A 0 192 -O 55 E 21 TAS 216 TZ9 S AT RAJ ACT CH A*1 S I AZ * A OTHE TOT 71 0 7z1 02 TI. TZ S ° 4 0 Z$ * Z'. IZ ° ° STARE AOA~~~603AT 27 3Z9 Zl 9 0 * 0 1 Z a *O lA 8 T.Z 259 Z16 0 5 AT a T A? *2 ZT-TT TEARS 40T 232 ZT1Z 27 A 2099Z 0 A.? Zr t7ll TA AS 10 ITSA A5- TEARS 1T3A 0 1T 821 SEA T 576 4A 7.0 liE0 872 A AS 25 3 282 E 282 0 206

Senator SARBANES. You don't have a teenager figure with you? Mrs. NORWOOD. No, not with us, but the employment-population ratio for the overall Hispanic population has gone up almost 2 full percentage points this year, and a large part of that at least, is a result of Hispanic women coming into the work force. Senator SARBANES. Are they the three groups on which you maintain figures? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. Senator SARBANES. The white population, the black population, and the Hispanic population? Mrs. NORWOOD. That's correct. We don't have as much data as we would like to have on the Hispanic population. We have been working very hard to try to improve that and we did introduce some improvements in the Hispanic population data at the beginning of last year. Senator SARBANES. Do you do anything to identify the profile of the percentage of these populations that do not have jobs? In other words, as I understand it, 25 percent of all all white males 20 or over do not have employment, according to your figures? Mrs. NORWOOD. That's correct. Senator SARBANES. 35 percent of all black males 20 or over do not have jobs. Do you have any profile of that 25 percent of the white adult males or the 35 percent of the black adult males? Mrs. NORWOOD. We don't have any specific studies that respond to exactly that question. Obviously, these people are either unemployed or they are not in the labor force at all. Senator SARBANES. Yes. For instance, how many of them would be over 70 years old or over 65 years old? Mrs. NORWOOD. We could provide information of that sort for the record. I don't have it here. We do know that the discouraged workers, those are not looking for work because they don't think any is available, are disproportionately minority and they are disproportionately women. We can easily take a look at the age distribution and anything else that we think would be useful. Senator SARBANES. Could you work on that a bit? Mrs. NORWOOD. Sure. [The information referred to follows:] CPS BASE TASLES J.67AAT[2RS1X PGE S '--LE B.-*EMPLOFRIENTSTATUS OF TAO CIAILIAN SONRISTITUTIONAL. POPULATION IS YEARS OF AGE ASS OVEN. FAGEAS SES rio CIILIAll LA... I20187FTl A Bo.I. TOTAL FORCE... T..I1 LAGOOKFORCE ERPLOFES uKEPLFF SEP 61G us. OTHES AGE SEAAgo F~~~OP TOTAL AGNiC NOR-CTOTAL RATE TALIS OAItE' F -I 5. AL TI AS IC SOUSE SCR TO TOTAL AOKC 55 TOTAL SACK1 sCR- lOSE AESIC SEE. SASS TOTAL MALE 15. FEARS 211 870 515 IS 81 10 . 5 292 IS 8%I 1192 Ile2 ZS:21 369 ";A'EA.S 2001 CI S I 1 204 2. A 55 FEARS 1122 905 855 Al 822 AT 25 1522 0 I2Z K 12 4.5 210 IA S 45 IA K I I4 S 14AS FAS:, 101 9 71 I1 I9A 53 A.? 241 7 15 0 15 199 0 5 I99 a 9 FEARS ~~~~~~1049791 702 52 730 10 5.7 278 7 SO TE~~~lS lOTS 721 0 AS 2eV 0 K 209 A4 0 AlFARS ASA 57 AA AA ..F 2E 4I 103 222 ISI A I IAF 28 42 2 222 1 I. 375 IS R S? I 642 FAS 1021 lA3 SF9 AA45 I 0 ASFARS 2 . 08 3 5*2 42Z 6 All1 21 8 I 1.0 497 1a C l R 6A YEAS 9951 39K 589 27 Sl IS 2.0 18 4A6 0 0 *446 A 412 195 IS Sa l 12 0 0 4 1 Al SEARS FO1l ISA 295 It 27A II 3.A 71 1I f 18 442 K 4 0I AI':EA::OZ 25A 229 ZO8 201 I 2.0 I? FEARS 571 ISO 114~~~~~~;: I5 21 415 S 21 457 "I 440 2014 430I0 C 5 5 441 5 0S1 18TARS 79 A IT 51 2?IA lAS 4 2.91 :25 22 C 24 082 0 ASFARS 010 3404 71 1 5 ?17 A29 41 I FSC 70 YEAS 708 116 111 22 91 F 5 008 I 1 .2 44 1 0 45 09 IA so. 71 FAS7S1 ISAAI 55 O 72 FEARS III~~~~~?1ER3 RID -. 412 7 C 2 00 Sao08 IS ST6 IS OsI 80 5. 1 20 5 0 71 TEARS 057 77~~~63I 71 9 Al$4 9 74 FEAROVs ISA I 7 05 2 5AA so?74 0 A.A IS 63 II 12 F 2.2 ARC 14 5 II AS 71 AID OVR 919 240 ZS9 IA 20s A4 4.341 Ill 412, I 179 01 1 114 SARI S 48 300 1108 TOTAL FERALE "ISFAR 2790 6171, 109 107 78 1129288378 218812 01 FEAKS 4A 1 1I412 940 042 ~~~~~~1189 20 4.1 52A,414,211 5 IS, -I? I I 75 0 04 TAlsK 4 17 lIARS 1192 6AA 524 l 0.I 17AA Il40o04 I 052 IA 2.4 5 4 C 3 1 0 I IbRSIA 010 0 11 9 57 I 2.8. Z.2 8 0 C 8 K 09 FEARSIllS 171 151 IA 4 I.?1 92 - ICC40 0 K 5 9 515 II 1.2 587~~~~~~~~~~~~I4494 0 1 90 K4:5 2 5 I2 TEAR 110 2 91 109 II 5'a 2 029 1 FEE 1109 109 ':SA 30 2971 2. 0 9 1.7 41 41 I 2 ZI39 9 :IAFEARS 11:0 271 27 0 273 53 1. ElI is, 3 22 4 2 :242 5 21 IS FEARI 3204~~~'I'20:01 119 .15 I4FA., 75S 2 2V Z1 I I 28; 0 S8K 330 095 I06 la 429 I 4. 93 615 17' TEAK S II 0 SI 242 3 5 l43 5 :043 12?I A 212 A 4.1 81 0 7 ISFARS: 23 4 5 55 2 8 0 . A 194 1' 211 5 212 4 42 71 FEARS825 55 54 0 15 0 72? FEARS IIIT I 57 15 A ~~~~~~~~~~~~~71 14 0 I 1 2178 4 Si1 2 41. 714 AS I 38 0 Z ~~~~~~~.45* IE 7SYEARK 964 III 426 4 52 0 .0I 0 2041 842 192 0 SI 241 Ka 4 0 74 bARR 787 32 10 I~ 29 2 ~~~ ~~~~~~ 1.1 ~~~711 475 3 28 ZS? 8 53 5

70IARIOVER 4777 380 185 I ITS 2 .8 41193 1814 A 412 2119 5 3 2,1184 il 7T141 208

HOUSEHOLDDATA SEASONALLYADJUSTED OUARTERLYAVERAGES

AS5&Pi Inoth Ia- fotc by 1.~ Go,Vnd rho6 aswWY adpltad

InaO .~~~~~ 1913 _ _ W 1 se15 R e m .W I rd , IV-,I- I- - -7 'T -T - l I.-T TOTAL

T.W W 1. fb. (...... GZ765 a3.138 62,607 SZ791 d2.071 62.404 6ZM GZW 62.754 SZ817 OZ693 62.86, 62.807

D. _M . pb 10 58.7. 57.193 S6X8 56.865 57.013 01-M #.W. r.bm W hd ...... a.SW 6.667 6,469 6.9M 9.357 6,292 6.2W 8,310 U16 6,249 6.513 6,M9 8.33D ULd bld 3.SW 4,024 1,083 4.W9 3,50 4.0.2 3.833 3.836 IWO 4,180 4.040 4.087 3.928 K.P.9 h- 20.458 28,450 27.M 28.018 27ABI 27.2N 27.271 27.028 25.639 26.796 26.407 26.170 26.0DO A.2------13,144 13,47a 13,670 13.657 14,255 M.354 11.714 16.131 15,234 15.133 15-126 15.885 16,M Ott. "Jft ...... 4.407 4,192 4.331 4,555 4,458 4,679 4,863 4.525 4,356 4.826 4.471 4.528 4.686

W.d . ob 6.192 6AU 6.018 5,917 0,041 5.880 SAN 6.020 5.961 5,789 SAW 5,980 5jw R- Wkkq Sd.0 .11.1d- 1.535 1.536 I.SM 1.478 1.483 I."G 1.450 1.417 1.483 1,416 1.370 1.578 1,427 10h-M d..biRy WS 7" 822 a09 019 763 $13 780 554 &15 M 9M 748 H- lw-w 1 358 1 453 1,219 I."g 1.347 1.231 1.255 INS 1.350 1= 1.311 1= 1.347 TW.k gM .;r, 1:422 I:3Za ,30D 1,211 1,272 1,253 1.170 1.230 1.150 1,107 i.119 1.150 1,12 Job-.W 1 1,038 931 947 $67 925 88W 822 473 792 76357 7GI ,36 851 P- w ft 383 411 353 3" 2" 395 348 365 34 358 414 2" 0&- 1.071 1,142 1,051 M 1,120 1,180 1,100 1.197 1.107 I.M 1.175 1.145 1,160

T.W W k Wb f- 19.583 19,8M 19,734 19.770 19,514 I9.Wl 20.011 2D.136 20,155 20,225 20-W 20.460 20,454

D. W .Jb ...... 17.511 17,65a 17,64 17.895 17,601 18.059 17.972 is.ow is.i.3 ta.350 ISMI 18.3S2 IC454

W.d . M - 2.111 Z0172 Z034 1,915 1.986 1.936 ZWS 2.OD3 1.095 1,940 I.MS Z057 2.026 R-Sd.d M C.4-lokkq ...... 824 814 SW 717 7" 692 732 64 709 726 66 824 680 M h.Wd%d bft . 356 363 362 383 M 362 348 351 Ql 364 471 438 359 Thk = q!. job SM 500 503 475 476 507 513 499 492 .38 392 425 497 09...... 30 395 365 343 380 375 414 477 393 412 418 399 49D

T.W W i. te- f- 43= 43,= 4ZS72 43.018 43.050 42.573 4Z761 42,810 42.598 42-193 4Z34a 42204 42.354

00 -t -M . ib 3902.2 39'1.5 35.810 39.346 38.973 38,707 38.917 38.737 38,6DI 38.943 38.3M 38.482 38.550

W.d .jb ...... 40" 4.182 3,984 3,M9 4.055 3.9.3 3.602 4.018 3.985 3.U9 3,933 3,893 3,752 R- WkM Sd.d Wbld- ...... 711 722 823 76i 740 754 728 749 774 690 711 754 747 Mh.Wg% d bFAY..- 4 381 459 426 433 .01 465 420 153 471 426 465 38 H- %..Wbft. 1.311 1.483.V19 I.Ug 1.347 1.231 1,265 1.395 1.350 1.355 1.311 12M '.U7 ThM 9M . pb 639 SO 797 736 79 659 2; 725 630 ...... 723 744 686 628 74' 746 o" 73 a66 ;5 740 .10 O Olt 6m 72 713 653

Whft TOW-t IW- f...... 53.653 64.115 MAN 53.894 53.654 53,601 53.807 53.937 53,668 53.767 53,674 53.511 53,564

D. . Ib - 49,107 49.5" 49.341 49.593 49,514 .9.219 49,541 Ig..25 49.317 49.505 49.387 49.M8 49,367

WM . Ib - -.-...... 4,530 4.472 4.255 4,212 4.367 4,373 1.245 4.430 4.352 ..265 4,352 4.295 4.217 R- 1.1 bk.F sd.d tt..I.- 1.014 1.0.2 1.054 1,010 1.026 1.052 994 975 1.065 975 19NWM. d-bity ...... - M 5W 561 587 SW Wi 560 568 SCM 625 618 625 536 H- W..W ...... 1,003 1.074 SB2 1,063 1.027 942 1,003 LOW 1.009 1,020 1.032 898 9 Thik - gW,Jb 829 774 791 878 76 790 808 749 741 780 61 '850 5M 862 774 926 948 9DE 990, 910 876 985 93i 91,

T.W i Ibot- 7,434 7M 7.387 7.252 7,230 7,235 7. S,12 7.,214 7-11 7:23 7ADI

D. .t ib ...... 5.964 5.854 5,859 SP2 5.748 5.901 .948 5 .7 S..71 . 27 6.OM

WW . job 1,495 1.5S5 1.531 1.446 1.4a5 054 .332 397 1,353 1,299 1.425 LIM R- t lokkv sd.d ..M- ...... 410 400 428 3U 374 369 39 319 148 181 113i 1 Ml Wh..M d bWy 178 101 214 21 209 215 211 .,I 'j 2" 20 245 192 H- -p.-M ...... 309 349 296 M? 282 2`1 26 301: 295 287 270t 20 318 Th.lk 9.,pb ...... 4n 409 418 M 459 3" 115, 11 34' 31, , 27 O ...... 1741 2461 175 IN 160 IS6 56 71 4 471 IBO.'61 ,71 24

-0 - ot k.V to, -lk .1 NTE- DW. h- - I-d b. ft-gh ..h- -P- Wifi.." ..- - 1936.S- - tl, ij- f. Mdil- l 209

HOUSEHOLD DATA NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED QUARTERLY AVERAGES

A.54. Persoas aot Ia the labor force by reason, sex, and age (I. tcu0ard

TI Ago

t lot 9 I 20 lo024 I 25tlo059 61)nos Reasonand sco Tc 1903 190 II N lvN IV . I _ 1985 - t980 1905419_85 1981909 195 9909 ~~I I-"IV" ,"S I I I IV I 'IV~~~~~ TOTAL I Totanot hn l.ebo toI...... 62.867 62.903 7.029 7,068 4.307 4.134 21,139 20.895 30.392 30.011 D0 nat wn t. tob no...... 57.019 57.219 5.850 5.958 3.463 3.345 17.974 17.810 29.733 30.096 Gong to soto0l ...... 8.048 5.385 1.980 8.075 5.203 1.769 945 a00 19 240 III. diablto..d...... 3.981 3.773 38 30 73 68 1,53 1.853 It*801 K.opmghus ...... 2s.738 341 25.007 344 1229 1.211 12.544 12.273 12,624 t2.078 Relid . _...... _._14970_ 15.781 302 383 *4.589 ts.418 DOwnaclty ... 3.47 3.,63 268 201 201 297 2.250 689 759 Want l ob n n ...... _ _ ...... 58947 3.084 5.690 1.178 1,102 843 789 3.163 242 859 713 Res.n ta, n lookong -ChOblt I ...... 1.432 1.378 056 914 232 196 240 10holtth, disalbty ...... 930 817 10 51 630 548 2014 200 Hoot. np ltionsbib...... _ 1,283 1.277 60 09 243 246 937 915 580 Thiokca t got a tb ...... _ 1.149 70 84 155 158 704 654 06 223 JcbnI..ait t too .. . . . 74 l't20 2t9 45 92 112 521 510 110 Pbtnl bI..on ...... _._ 406 326 19 39 63 40 I82 130 105 O09 .090...... 1.053 68 43 132 138 652 703 199 214

TotaI nat ia 1b.0 fto e...... 20.470 3.434 3.482 1,503 20.773 1.398 3.,81 4.015 11.8653 11,873 C. nt w taiob n...... 52.t...._._._..8 16,807 2.849 2.934 1.215 1.152 3.125 3.166 1 t.340 **.535 CoolantaCtoot9: GoIngto d0...... _._4 .099 2.677 2,773 1.0098 933 405 381 INditbled ...... 1.996 1.085 24 21 38 42 1.059 070a 878 Knpog hooo.s72...... 2,000 421 20 18 13 25 141 140 231 Ratnd ...... 10.t3t -99 10.209 323 291 0.008 0.919 Othat.cntly ...... 1.932 2,069 t21 158 147 1.191 1.307 455 495 W tt. _ .t ...... 1.942 1,965 514 554 280 245 756 313 339 R00 n to not 0oking 829 b'chx anod a...... 9 0 79 4 847 087Su 474 117 74 72 95 92 111heh dabity ...... 436 4 40 23 297 256 Thitnk annot at a b ...... 7 483 57 87 70 223 259 112 88 Ottht, 10s0 .4...... 352 40 440 19 04 70 159 219 106 132 W-ma

Total not n 0boto ...... 42.396 42.130 3.595 3,582 2,804 2.736 t7.258 16.880 10,739 t8,939

Oo not ont oe now...... _ 380.90 38.411 3.033 2 250 2,194 10.849 *4.62518.393 18,560 Catnanlar~at Gong to 0...... 3.950 3960 830 2.5,25 2.611 873 540 499 12 26 INldio"blg .t...... _ . 1820 1.773 13 14 37 27 707 609 982 923 Klloyo Iausa . . . 26.365 25.486 321 329 1.216 1.187 12.450 12.124 12.425 I1. 84 Retad ... _. 4839 5.572 59 73 *.7805,0499 Olate,a l... _ ...... 1 516 1,614 to0 so 124 150 1.058 ,.t21 194 264 W-at t b n .o ...... __ . . . 3906 3.724 595 548 555 542 2..00 346 377 Ransot notIo-Wr 2.257 0h0 ant . .n...... 753 731 070 439 ItS 123 III h8000h.dOSOiAty ...... 094 168 192 421 a 41 27 333 292 iII 94 Hon Nsp lib...... 1,283 .277 66 49 243 MMi n-ano1ont a pb...... _.____.._. 675 240 937 915 36 60 637 22 23 09 70 396 135 0Don...... 790 476 107 658 28 24 82 67 049 405 91 82 I I I

* h1ndres901. nunmbeo oan not loodi tdfr or bea e otls 80ecau0e01di.nenoas n 01 wa.ighfngpa000s 10ed . NOTE: Oltai into bles A.54 c A-55-aY not Wad0 onot an.Oboo. ghs 210

HOUSEHOLD DATA NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED OUARTERLY AVERAGES

A-5. Persons not In the labor force by reason race, Hispanic origin, age, and en lim ondi Ta 881 ~~~~~Agn Sa. WI 181824 F 2518o53 f d over1 Uan IWonto Roaste,n. endHInpan-c don IV IstV I S - ' I ,t - _ 1985 i 1 i955 N lN N IV N Iv Nv IV N _ 6 9465881985 1985 19851 188d 1 85 1935 18951895 WHITE

Toualnot in labortoro ...... 53778 53.6b8 8.738 8.534 177 17,471 340 27,663 17.264 17.467 36.514 36,201

Do rot wt a icb ..... 19,52848...... 49.575 7,365 7,299 15,375 1,53128.70 27,039 15.858 16.041 33,668 33.531 C-Tct nc.vib:- 5.888 5.566 683 18I 2R 3.221 3.123 Gorn tI hool ...... 6,379 6.250 s688 684 3,256 3,055 llt.dissbted ...... 3100 3.128 5o 1.470 '1.531 1.542 1,876 1,477 1.453 Keop os.a ...... 23.885 1,248 1,301 11.062 10,758 11.573 11.024 2 330 23 602 22 749 RGed . . 13.409 14,131 338 248813.57113.7838,18 9 201 4,243 4.830 Otr Coatty...... 2,754 2.953 361 352 1.913 582 687 1,331 1.613 1,223 t.348

Wanl pb .now...... 4 251 4.095 1.376 1.235 2,326 2.239 553 024 1,405 1.425 2.846 2.670 Reson for not lookiN: Sblted ennedano...... 1,007 937 848 764 159 174 514 452 493 485 .376 155 316 1 healb.datbft.. 652 583 51 38 4 7 1688 304 337 289 Horn res.srobdrsns ...... 971 844 217 188 723 689 3217 63 _ 971 949 Think .anrol 800 aib ...... 765 113 125 464 452 ISR 292 323 473 445 Oh1r r.nso' S585...... 862 147 119 533 548 177 213 343 572 519 BLACK

Totalnot in laborleor ...... 7.367 7,449 2,100 2.128 2,658 2.832 2.509 2.691 2.616 2.580 4.751 4,769

Do notwrnt a pb r.r ...... 5.973 6,057 1,525 1.539 1.937 1,914 2.50 2.608 2,148 2,227 3.823 3,931

ong to scht...... 1228 1283 1,082 1.178 143 105 588 631 641 @52 14diLabtod ...... _ .... 652 57 22 17 341 303 288 255 342 279 309 289 Kpnrg ho. _...... _. . . 2.200 2,17 262 227 1.030 1,058 907 858 73 84 2,127 2.088 1.250 787 Roland. .. . . 1.283 34 16 1,37782 835 498 558 Otlhera-rvily ...... _ 61I 631 158 191 389 432 82 360 398 250 234

WanM.pb .c ...... 1,39 1,393 573 588 723 721 87 84 467 454 929 939 "293 Retor teorno looking: 283 Sotto ldc .c...... 351 380 44 303 58 73 157 227 223 llthnailh. d 255 46 82 147 127 iiarlyo...... 208 22 149 37 112 Hove r .s.onsibis . . 260 93 170 184 ~ _ 260 281 184 172 21 Thik 09-11 gor jbo ...... 357 302 102 224 l8 173 127 185 175 Otherreasons' ...... 167 221 48 81 102 143 17 58 88 109 133 HISPANICORIGIN

Toal not in laborIrr .4284c e 4,261 1,225 1.242 2.031 1.028 1,854 1,195 1,1'8 3.090 3.094 1,965 Do nolrwu ib no...... 3.734 1.072 1.846 in 1.008 0 2,725 Cioent anoer In i1 810a Gor glonot...... _.(1 730 647 87 0 370 (1 388 261 i1 145 (1 tO14dill, ...... __ .... 174 Cl 112 KSepnrgbi e...... 2.004 iM 340 1.2"4 23 g 38 (1 1.958 Rebed ...... I Soo 310 Cl 189 Ir i1 irs Doter scvy...... 233 It 78 (1 133 i, 143 (3 90 (1 (1 WaMMa. nor ...... (1 527 in 172 (1 317 36 in 159 1 369 Rearorlovrnot looking: in oi SchO a.. .ndano...... (1 98 29 62 127 ir 45149 (iS Ill nalr. disabiril ...... (I '67 In g 44 Ii 27 Ho-e ponsbtiim...... _ ( 43 g 1) IIl in 15l Tlsok c got a lob.. . (1 In 78 to Cl 431 ,5 55 Dier r.a. n...... _('i 78 1r 59 in 31 ')

lntitdcs sirlt rebor at mcr not lookng or onr- b -cose01 ieroadaa by reann .ro ocatanblor 1985. oere rIstoosibn .st NOTE: Detad o eraH.ipc tAo. d Hrino.sn groun r nor ' Sgons anJaroa 19866data .or personsor Hwimiancwonbre - *2 laborW b-eo dat lor dW c.1Wr-n 9sP ore.not nsoetad bon coreid 18 relbontrots popoabn nberates.Reorsed nol-4ntlbw. andHisparns ta- imNded Wiloth Irawict aedbonk poWlaut-ngroops. 211 Senator SARBANES. I'm pursuing this because I think there's something to be gained by coming at the employment problem-I mean, I'm really sounding your refrain to some extent-from the point of view of participation. As you point out, the black teenager figure is 24 percent on the participation ratio. When you look at the unemployment figures, that's not going to be fully reflected because a lot of them are not actually seeking jobs. They are out there unemployed and not working, and they're at the age when they ought be working. Mrs. NORWOOD. That's correct. Senator SARBANES. So somehow we don't do a full count of that. Mrs. NORWOOD. That's why I feel so strongly that you can't look at a single number and understand what's going on in the labor market. One needs to look at employment and at unemployment. And I think it's only by looking below those numbers at all the disaggregated data that you can determine which are the groups which need to be targeted for policy purposes. It is always necessary to focus on all unemployed. There's a certain amount of frictional unemployed that will always be there. Senator SARBANES. Senator Melcher. Senator MELCHER. The data on table A-7, all of the figures in the duration column under January 1987, the past January, the month just preceding this month, show I guess percentagewise substantial increases, and yet when seasonally adjusted they show decreases, all but one of the five figures shows decreases from the previous month. How reliable is your seasonally adjusted figure? Mrs. NORWOOD. Our seasonal adjustment process is as reliable as we can make it. Is it perfect? Certainly not. We keep working on new approaches. We consult with other countries, and I think that we do at least as good a job and probably better than many other countries. But you're quite right that there could be some distor- tion due to seasonal adjustment. I don't see anything that stands out as a seasonal adjustment problem this particular month, but January is a month with very large seasonals-January and June are the 2 months that are probably the most difficult of all, and it's for that reason that we always caution users to be sure to look at several months of data. There really has been no real statistically significant movement in the duration figures. I think that, perhaps, the most important information from them is that the long-term unemployed, 27 weeks or more, has remained at such a high level, about 1.2 million. Senator MELCHER. Turning just to mining, the number of unemployed persons in table A-6 increases slightly in January compared to the preceding December. It increases substantially from January 1987 compared to January 1986. It's substantially higher. Yet, in the unemployment rates, it shows a slight decline between January and the preceding December, 0.1 percent, but shows a remarkable increase in unemployment between January 1986 and January 1987, almost-well, precisely 3.3 percent. Should that figure, since it's a basic industry, be a caution figure to us? 212 Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, I think it's quite clear that that industry is in considerable trouble. In looking at industry data, I prefer to look at the establishment series, and there you will find that-- Senator MELCHER. What table is that? Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, that's in the "B" tables, B-1. A year ago, employment in the oil and gas extraction industry was 564,000. Current employment is 416,000, before seasonal adjustment. That's a drop of more than 25 percent in employment. So that industry really has suffered a great deal. We have talked about that many times before this committee and it is the oil and gas extracting industry that's driving the employment figures for mining, of which it is a part. Senator MELCHER. Well, as I caught up with you, Commissioner, you're referring to a figure of January 1986 of 564,000 as compared to 410,000? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes-well, that's another way of looking at it; 564,000 in January of 1986 and 416,000 in January of 1987. That's a very significant drop in employment. Senator MELCHER. All right. What you're saying then I detect is that you prefer to look at table B-1 as compared to the other table. Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, I think that they are consistent in what they are showing. There has been a severe decline in oil and gas extraction and mining employment in general over the last year and I think both of our surveys are showing that. If you want very detailed information by industry, we find that the payroll survey is a bit more accurate. But these surveys are showing essentially the same phenomenon. Senator MELCHER. And then we should attach great caution to them? Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, I think obviously my role is to tell you to attach caution to things, but I believe that it is very clear that the oil and gas extraction industry is in great trouble. It has lost 25 percent or more of its jobs in the last year and there does not seem to be any general trend to reverse that. So I think that's a clearcut conclusion that one can come to from these data. Senator MELCHER. What's the time lag, if you can tell me, on the status of oil prices, crude oil prices, whether it's a decline or an increase, and reflection in the Consumer Price Index? Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, I can't tell you that exactly. Some kinds of commodities show up more quickly than others. Generally, we have found that gasoline prices reflect the change soon after any change in price is announced. Senator MELCHER. Well, let's assume that's within 30 days, just for an assumption. What I'm really getting at is what's the others? Isn't the time lag rather dramatically increased for plastics and so on? Mrs. NORWOOD. It take some time for those to filter through the economy to get at the indirect effects, which is really what you're getting at-the use of petroleum products in the manufacturing process. That depends in part on inventories and it depends in part on how quickly the producers reflect those prices. But it's quite clear-that we can expect some increase in oil prices and that that will find its way through the economy in the future. 213

Senator MELCHER. My recollection is that for fuel, gasoline and diesel, it's about 30 days, and for the rest of it it's about a year or a little more. Mrs. NORWOOD. That may be. I don't know. Senator MELCHER. All right. Maybe one or two questions about agriculture as being separated from agribusiness. Do you do that or not or do you have a category for agribusiness? Mrs. NORWOOD. No, we do not. We do very little work with agricultural data. There is a statistical reporting service in the Depart- ment of Agriculture which is quite expert on all kinds of farm and rural activities and I'm sure that they make some breakdowns of that kind. We specialize in the nonfarm economy. Senator MELCHER. I've never found-maybe I haven't looked hard enough-any Agriculture Department data that related to employment or unemployment tables that could be attached to agribusiness. Of course, you must catch a lot of it since you have trucking, retail stores, including supermarkets and whatever. Mrs. NORWOOD. Sure. And the household survey, of course, covers the total population. It's just that our business survey is a nonagricultural survey and our price data are nonfarm data. Senator MELCHER. Well, returning once more to the question of the tables and the significance they present, if you can pinpoint some significant change in the way you gather your data, what difference is there between 15 years ago and now? Is there any real significant change that sticks out? Mrs. NORWOOD. You mean in-- Senator MELCHER. Let me give you an example. How about the question of how long somebody is unemployed, that time when somebody is unemployed when his benefits have run out? Has there been a-just using 15 years ago as a benchmark, has there been a significant change? Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, the unemployment rate has clearly been ratcheting-upward and if we go back to, say, approximately 1971, we are going to find a much lower unemployment rate-in fact, at about 6.1 percent in December 1970, 5.9 percent in January 1971. So you will find that much less. The labor force, of course, would have been much smaller, and employment would have been smaller, and population would have been smaller. Senator MELCHER. Well, my question referred to the method of data collection. Mrs. NORWOOD. There has been no basic change. Obviously, we have made some improvements in bringing in the population counts from the new population censuses and things of that sort, but the basic current population survey is a household survey of roughly 60,000 households. It is done in much the same way as it was done then. The establishment survey is done in a Federal-State cooperative manner in much the same way as it was done in the past. We think we have improved some of the statistical techniques, but those are only technical factors that have changed. The basic structure of the two surveys is very similar to the way it was then. 214 Senator MELCHER. Did I correctly understand the response to Chairman Sarbanes a few moments ago that if somebody was employed for 2 hours a week that that person would be counted as employed? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes, unless he was an unpaid farm worker. Senator MELCHER. Did you count it the same was 15 years ago? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. Senator MELCHER. It counts as a whole? Mrs. NORWOOD. It counts as an employed person, but we do note that it is part time and we publish data on the number of people who are employed part time voluntarily and those who are employed part time not voluntarily. Senator MELCHER. When you make your survey and you find an 18-year-old that isn't working, is that 18-year-old going to say, "Well, I am employed 2 hours a week on babysitting?" Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, the questionnaire is quite scientifically designed. People are never really specifically asked if they are unemployed, for example. People are classified as either having worked for pay during the survey week or as looking for work, available for work and not having worked during the survey week, or as outside of the labor force entirely. So there are three categories. This is a structure or system which is used all over the world, although the United States has provided the leadership. Senator MELCHER. Has this questionnaire been changed in that regard in the last 15 years? Mrs. NORWOOD. It has been reviewed by two presidentially appointed commissions, one appointed by President Kennedy in the 1960's, one appointed by President Carter, and both of those commissions have made some suggestions for minor changes. We have put some of their recommendations into effect; others we have not because of the funds that would be increased, particularly, with reference to improving state data. I want to emphasize, however, that each Commission endorsed the overall concepts. Senator MELCHER. Well, this questionnaire is a written questionnaire or is it by telephone? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes, it is a written questionnaire which is admin- istered by Census Bureau agents. The household survey is one of the surveys the Census Bureau does for the Bureau of Labor Statis- tics. The business survey we do with our own agents. There is always a personal visit at the beginning of the period when the family comes into the survey. There are followup- interviews done by telephone. Senator MELCHER. Well, I'm going to make an assumption and I think it's correct, that part of that questionnaire is going to ask, "Do you collect unemployment compensation?" Mrs. NORWOOD. No, sir, we don't ask that question. Senator MELCHER. You don't ask that? Mrs. NORWOOD. Only in special supplements for other purposes. That is not a part of the definition of unemployment. Senator MELCHER. All right. I'm trying to visualize the quandary this typical 18-year-old might be in or anybody else of any age, male or female, drawing unemployment compensation and they re asked-is this questionnaire being done in person or just by mail? 215 Mrs. NORWOOD. No, it's not done by mail at all. It is done either in person or by telephone. Senator MELCHER. All right. And it can be done by telephone. I'm just trying to visualize the quandary of somebody who's drawing unemployment compensation and how he's going to answer, "Have you done anything that you got $10 for or any amount of money in the last week?" What are they going to say? They're supposed to report that in most cases, if they got something. Mrs. NORWOOD. A lot of them do report just those kinds of things. Senator MELCHER. They do? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes, they certainly do. Senator MELCHER. They must have great confidence or else they're reporting that. Mrs. NORWOOD. The statistical agencies in this country have worked very hard to develop that kind of confidence among the citizens of the country. We promise complete and absolute confidentiality. Our interviewers are very well trained. But obviously, nothing is perfect. Senator MELCHER. You say "our interviewers," are they yours or the Census Bureau's? Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, there is one statistical system. These particular interviewers for the current population survey happen to be on the payroll of the Census Bureau, but we are very much involved in the training process and we are very much aware of all of the quality factors and work with the Census Bureau very closely to be certain that that survey is up to the state of the art. It is a good survey. I would certainly not come here and tell you that it is a perfect survey. In fact, one of the things that I have begun is a joint Census Bureau-BLS review of the entire CPS with a view toward developing a strategic plan for how the CPS should be conducted in the 1990's. I think it is not too soon to begin to look at that issue. This is a tremendously important survey. I believe that there are changes in social conditions out there which need to be taken into account. So we have begun a long-range research effort. The Con- gress will be hearing about it because there will be some costs involved. Senator MELCHER. Thank you. Senator SARBANES. Commissioner, I have just a few questions. First-and it follows a bit on the first question that Senator Mel- cher put-in the table this morning, civilian employment actually declined by 1.5 million before seasonal adjustment? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes, that's correct. Senator SARBANES. The seasonally adjusted figure showed an increase of 375,000. I guess my first question is, is this gap historically consistent or does it seem to be a somewhat larger gap? This leads to the next question, are you concerned that there may be changes occurring in the seasonal employment patterns in the U.S. that may raise some questions about the seasonal adjustment factor that's being used? Mrs. NORWOOD. The seasonals for the month of January are extraordinarily large. There is normally, for example, a drop in employment of 1,873,000. That's a very, very large number. 216 Now we have gone back, as we always do, to look at what the seasonal factors are and what employment has been in the last 10 or so years, particularly the last 5 or 7 which are used in the seasonal adjustment process. There have been some changes, particularly in things like retail trade, and that's why I commented about the retail trade data. My view is that there is clearly a good deal of employment growth. It may not be 450,000 as the business survey has shown, but it is sizable. I also think there is a lot of labor force growth. The labor force tends to move in spurts, and late last year we had a period with fairly small growth-only about 170,000 between October and De- cember. So it seems to me that what we are seeing now is quite realistic. As I indicated in my testimony, the retail trade and the construction figures appear to be perhaps slightly stronger-because of the seasonals-than they might have been under more normal seasonal conditions. But I think we need another couple of months to be sure of that. Senator SARBANES. What was the labor force growth in 1986? Mrs. NORWOOD. In 1986, it was 2,272,000. I'm sorry. That's from January to January. Senator SARBANES. What are you expectations for labor force growth in 1987? Mrs. NORWOOD. Based upon population data growth rates, our expectation is that the labor force will continue to grow more slowly than it has in the past, but there will be growth and the growth will probably be from minorities and women in large part, but also from men. Senator SARBANES. Is there any way you can project a figure? Mrs. NORWOOD. I don't have a figure to give you. We have made projections to 1995 and we expect really a bit more growth, I believe, in the rest of this decade and then a little less in the early part of the 1990's. I can try to provide a paragraph for the record. Senator SARBANES. Assuming the labor force grew in 1987 at the rate that it grew in 1986, how much would real GNP have to grow in order to maintain an unemployment rate where it is now? Mrs. NORWOOD. I don't really have the answer to that. There are a lot of people who feel the GNP growth has to be at least 3 percent in order to have a downward effect on the unemployment rate. But those relationships were developed many years ago. We have a very different structure of the economy now and I'm not sure that they still hold up. What I think we have seen clearly is that the growth that we have had over the last year has really not been enough to change the unemployment rate very much. That's quite clear. Senator SARBANES. On prices, I wanted to make sure I followed this analysis. But for the sharp drop in energy prices, the CPI would have gone up almost 4 percent, is that correct? Mrs. NORWOOD. That's correct. The CPI would have been at about the rate that it has been for other years in the last few years, but that's, of course, as you know, a sharp deceleration from the very high rates of the 1980 s. 217 Senator SARBANES. Now let me ask this question. If you assume that the price movement and the rest of the economy in 1987 will be what it was in 1986-the rest of the economy other than energy that is-and that energy prices will go back up to the level that they were at before they dropped so sharply in 1986 and contributed to this very sharp decline, would the CPI then increase about 7 to 8 percent in 1987? Mrs. NORWOOD. I don't really know. Perhaps Mr. Dalton can speculate about that. We can't tell you really very much about the indirect effects. As energy prices go up, they filter through the economy. All manufacturing costs increase. And there are models that can be run with assumptions, but we just don't know that offhand. All we could really tell you is that if the energy prices that are in the CPI rose "x" percent what the effect on the index would be. What is the weight? Mr. DALTON. It's about 11 percent of the overall CPI. If you look at the performance of the energy component in 1986, it declined 19.7 percent. And I think what you're suggesting was that what would happen if that were to turn around and that it roughly went up 20 percent. Senator SARBANES. Right. Mr. DALTON. Energy is about 11 percent of the index, as I said, so a quick calculation-it's going to add 2 percent to the overall inflation rate. So you will then go from 3.8 to 5.8 or around 6 percent, if that were to occur. And as the Commissioner points out, that is just the direct impact of higher energy costs themselves. It doesn't account for the secondary effects of higher energy prices throughout the economy and those have been variously estimated, but the consensus is that the indirect effects are about equal to the direct effects. Mrs. NORWOOD. But they take more time to have an effect. Mr. DALTON. Right, to filter through. Senator SARBANES. Well, as I understand it, you say the drop was responsible for 2.7 percent, is that correct? Instead of 3.8 we had 1.1. Mr. DALTON. Correct. Mrs. NORWOOD. That's right. Senator SARBANES. And you say the sharp drop in energy prices was almost entirely responsible for the deceleration in the overall index. Now if you just reverse the assumption, that the energy prices will go back to where they were, is it then reasonable to assume that that's going to contribute 2.7 percent to the CPI, just like the drop away from it? Mr. DALTON. It isn't perfectly symmetrical, but, yes, it's in that neighborhood. Senator SARBANES. Okay. So in effect, you would then have to add that to the roughly 3.8 or 4 percent to get what the next year's figure would be? Mr. DALTON. Right. Senator SARBANES. So you're really looking at a situation where you could anticipate the Consumer Price Index going up 6.5 to 7 percent? 218

Mrs. NORWOOD. If energy prices went up quite that much. I don't think any of the speculation at least that I've read about is suggesting that large an increase in energy prices. Mr. DALTON. But the reasoning is essentially correct. Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes, your reasoning is quite correct. Without the drop in energy prices, the 1986 inflation would have been essentially the same really as the rate of inflation from 1982 on. Senator SARBANES. My final question has to deal with the factory workweek, weekly factory hours, which is really at quite a high level, is it not? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes, it's extremely high. Senator SARBANES. What is your explanation for that? Mrs. NORWOOD. Part of the explanation I think is-- Senator SARBANES. Let me preface is with this question. Is it a higher level historically than you would expect at the levels of unemployment that we have? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes, it is. Senator SARBANES. Because my understanding historically is that as you get the uneployment rate down lower and lower, you tend to get the longer work week. Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. Senator SARBANES. What is your explanation for that? Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, I think that part of the explanation at least is that employers are being much more careful now than they were in the past about hiring employees, and certainly the employment data for manufacturing show that. They are expanding hours in part as a substitute for hiring more employees. Labor costs are high. The fringe benefits associated with the actual wage costs are such that I think employers are being extraordinarily careful and two things are happening. One is that they are increasing hours, and the other is that they are using more temporary help. Some of this may be related to some of the attitudes that were developed during the period of extraordinarily high interest rates so that there is a feeling that inventories needs to be kept very lean. Even though interest rates have gone down, there is still an expectation problem. So all in all, it seems to me that it can be explained in large part by-one could call it-a rational behavior of manufacturers or employers. Senator SARBANES. Are you saying, in a sense, that it's cheaper to pay overtime than to pay additional workers benefits? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes, I think it is cheaper and, more important, there is no obligation then to worry about reducing the employment later should it be necessary to do so. You can cut back hours more easily than you can cut back employees. Senator SARBANES. Do you have anything else? Senator MELCHER. Yes. Commissioner, turning to the establishment data in the series of B tables, I note that in B-2 you admit that there's no use in trying to have seasonally adjusted figures for mining and construction because they are such small components relative to the trend cycle and/or an irregular component, so you don't measure it. 219 Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. That's another way really of saying that the not-seasonally adjusted data are the same as the seasonally adjusted data. Senator MELCHER. On table B-3, B-5, and B-4 also, you're able to do that and see very little difference between the components and the evaluations and the trends in table B-2 compared to B-5? Mrs. NORWOOD. That's because B-3 and B-4 are dominated by the earnings data more than the hours. Table B-2 is on weekly hours only. Senator MELCHER. B-5 is the one I'm thinking of in particular, and that's weekly hours of production. But at any rate, let me see if I understand this correctly in reading that B-5 table. We look at January 1986 for mining at 104.3 and January 1987 preliminary at 79.7. That means percentage of 1977, is that correct? Mrs. NORWOOD. No. That's an index-that's the level of the index, so there is a drop. Senator MELCHER. All right. I meant to say the same thing, based on 1977. Mrs. NORWOOD. That's correct. Senator MELCHER. Now in mining, I presume that mining includes coal production, is that correct? Mrs. NORWOOD. Overall mining does, yes. Senator MELCHER. Hard rock minerals? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. Senator MELCHER. And oil and gas? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. Senator MELCHER. In 1977, using that as a base year, it might be instructive for oil and gas, but I wonder if 1977 wouldn't have reflected-by 1977, there must have been a very significant drop in employment in hard rock minerals. Mrs. NORWOOD. Senator, we use 1977 as 100 for the arithmetic base for most indexes because that is the standard that has been adopted for all statistical agencies by order of the statistical policy group of the Office of Management and Budget. But one can very easily change those numbers by dividing through by some different year. The numbers remain essentially the same. You can change the base and then, of course, the numbers will be different, but the percentage changes should be essentially the same. Senator MELCHER. If the base year for hard rock minerals was 1967, what would be the difference now? Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, we can supply that for the record. Senator MELCHER. I wish you would. Mrs. NORWOOD. We just don't have the data here. Senator MELCHER. I believe that we may be looking at the wrong base year for hard rock minerals in order to get a true picture of the scope of the decline. Mrs. NORWOOD. We can easily calculate that and provide it for the record. Senator MELCHER. Thank you. Senator SARBANES. Thank you very much, Commissioner. Mrs. NORWOOD. Thank you.

79-018 0 - 88 - 8 220 [Whereupon, at 10:55 a.m., the committee adjourned, subject to the call of the Chair.] .[The following information was subsequently supplied for the record:] METAL MINING (SIC 10)

INDEX OF AGGREGATE HOURS BASE-1967

YEAR JAN PER MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC ANNUAL AVG 67 112.5 113.6 114.3 113.7 114.2 '118.5 117.1 85.7 79.7 77.7 77.1 76.8 100.0 68 74.8 79.4 80.4 111.1 115.3 119.8 120.6 117.8 114.7 112.3 110.0 110.3 105.5 69 110.3 111.8 112.7 113.8 116.3 118.1 118.9 120.5 119.9 118.3 117.2 118.7 116.3 70 118.0 117.0 119.3 120.5 122.2 125.9 125.9 125.0 122.0 120.8 120.2 122.2 121.6 71 118.3 117.3 117.1 117.5 117.5 123.0 80.6 95.9 102.2 112.1 111.7 108.4 110.1 72 102.7 101.7 101.6 102.0 101.8 104.3 99.4 98.4 103.4 102.6 103.0 103.0 102.0 73 103.0 102.6 103.6 106.6 107.5 110.8 107.8 109.6 111.8 110.3 111.4 115.1 108.3 74 114.6 113.0 113.4 115.6 116.8 120.9 121.0 106.8 122.7 122.2 121.6 123.5 117.6 75 118.7 115.0 112.3 111.8 110.8 114.2 107.6 106.6 109.6 110.2 109.0 110.1 111.3 76 104.6 104.6 105.1 110.5 110.9 117.0 116.7 114.5 116.6 115.3 112.4 111.6 111.6 77 114.3 114.7 113.9 116.2 117.7 121.0 102.5 88.1 84.2 86.3 87.7 103.0 104.1 78 107.4 107.7 110.1 110.4 109.4 111.9 112.7 112.3 114.5 114.4 114.6 116.3 111.7 79 115.0 114.7 115.0 115.8 114.4 122.0 121.2 122.4 121.4 121.7 123.8 124.7 119.3 80 122.4 122.7 123.7 122.4 123.2 124.8 93.2 84.1 98.0 97.3 111.6 122.1 112.1 81 121.2 121.9 122.1 119.6 119.0 124.2 119.1 119.7 118.9 112.0 112.2 110.1 118.3 82 105.8 101.4 100.1 95.6 84.3 82.8 70.9 62.6 59.9 56.6 58.3 60.4 78.2 83 62.2 59.7 60.2 59.9 61.3 62.4 58.7 58.6 58.3 60.2 60.9 61.6 60.3 84 62.9 62.1 62.8 63.1 64.6 64.7 62.3 58.5 59.1 57.3 57.5 55.1 60.9 85 53.2 53.9 55.1 54.9 54.9 55.2 51.9 51.6 50.6 50.1 50.7 50.0 52.7 86 50.1 50.3 50.3 50.4 49.6 49.1 48.0 44.9 46.2 46.1 46.4 48.3 48.4, 87 49.7 COAL f-1NTNC (SIC 11,12) INDEX OF ACCRFCATF HnI0RS BAFF-1 967

APR MAY JIUN .1111. A VC SEP OCT Nov' oFf ANNI'Al. YEAR JAN FFB MlAR AVC

11.(0 1o0.2 9R.7 107.0 no0.5 In1.0 67 1 02.3 99.1 7I.2 97.0 98.5 In2.6 Ill.4 44.8 96.2 93*5n6.q 68 98.6 98.0 99.0 97.0 96.9 Q9.q 99.3 97.6 96.9 9R.2 98. 1 01.1 *0 69 98.0 95.7 89.8 96.7 99. I 83.2 8R.R8 7.9 1)7. 6 101.4 106.1 10.1 I 11.4 111.1 111.4 109.3 70 99.7 101.4 100 .9 103.4 99.5 105.6 114.2 7.9 16.1 II.7 I0l.7 71 115.5 113.9 114.6 115.6 113.0 114.5 115.1 1IS.I 114. 4 7. 72 119.7 118.1 117.3 114.2 1 17.1 11IR.2 10.R I 5.4 117.1 19S.9 I IR.7 127.5 1 1l. 73 116.7 113.3 107.7 i08.9 lq.3 1 14.2 1 10.9 113.5 114 .1 138.7 S7. 112.7 178.4 74 123.4 123.7 117.8 128.2 131.9 130.4 127.0 133.8 131.2 199.3 157.5 147.2 75 133.1 135.8h 135.7 128.7 151.8 155.S 14q.7 14R.R 194.4 1SP.6 106.7 16R.2 161.7 167.51 1.2 616.7 76 197.8 160.1 162.4 153.4 16. 3 158.0 198.2 193.0 19S.4 48.3 163.0 77 164.4 160.0 172.6 173.2 170.1 179.6 174.5 156.7 191.4 176.2 178.2 174.7 171.7 171.S 176.2 11.3 1I7.4 141.S 78 410. 42.4 48.5 170.2 100.9 170.1 17I. 181.o 79 8I2.8 178.3 183.5 183.6 172.6 182.2 164.1 17q.6 1O0.7 14 7.1 IhP.27 169. 7 16P.8p 175.3 171.4 1(7.1 161.4 14{7*.4 149.48 I 14. 168.6 80 179 h n 81 1 R 4 I 6 9. 7 II.6 n6 1 6R . 7I5.1 I 6 I R 6 .7 I S1.t 81 170.3 170.4 153.4 60.2 H162. In R S2.1I 1 1 14S.7 144.1 11S.4 11 17q.8 179.2 171.9 82 177.5 131.S hO5.? 130.9 133.6 1?7.4 13 129.5 121.4 122.9 121.8 17.0 426.1 173.9 129.R P4 134.0 131.9 134.9 135.0 1 37. 1 1319.I 132.5 139.5 13R.R 120.9 17.I 170.0 131.1 1136.6 127.7 129.7 1113. 12. 7 1,71.6 126.72 1 2.I1 85 123.5 124.6 l"1.O 130.8 1 31.6 118.8 Il19.4 111I.0 116.9 117.5 117.6 114.1 11.3 170. 86 129.2 124.9 124.0 121.6 87 113.3 . . 0 BITUMINOUS COAL MINING (SIC 12) INDEX OF AGGREGATE HOURS sAS1-1967

YEAR JAN PFE MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC ANNUAL AVG 67 102.1 99.0 97.3 97.1 98.7 101.2 99.8 101.3 100.1 98.8 103.3 101.1 100.0 68 98.9 98.8 99.5 97.7 97.4 100.7 100.0 98.2 97.6 42.7 96.6 97.7 93.8 69 98.3 96.4 90.4 97.4 95.6 83.6 89.8 99.0 98.4 99.0 99.0 101.7 95.7 70 100.3 102.2 102.3 104.5 100.9 107.2 104.5 107.1 109.1 112.5 112.2 114.8 106.4 71 117.2 115.7 116.2 117.5 114.6 116.2 117.0 116.8 115.7 29.9 33.6 120.8 102.7 72 122.1 120.7 119.8 118.9 119.5 120.8 113.1 117.8 119.9 116.6 121.3 117.9 119.6 73 119.0 115.5 109.7 110.6 111.3 116.5 113.1 115.7 116.2 118.0 121.2 125.1 116.2 74 126.0 126.4 120.6 131.3 135.2 133.7 130.3 137.4 134.7 142.5 57.2 83.8 121.2 75 136.8 139.6 139.2 134.1 156.1 160.0 153.8 152.9 158.8 163.1 164.0 162.3 151.8 76 162.4 165.0 167.4 158.1 161.0 162.8 163.1 109.2 173.5 168.7 172.4 170.4 161.5 77 165.5 164.8 178.1 178.9 175.4 185.3 180.0 161.5 197.7 199.4 202.0 48.1 169.0 78 40.4 42.0 48.4 175.9 182.3 184.5 181.1 177.7 177.3 182.3 194.9 188.6 148.1 79 189.1 184.4 189.8 190.1 188.7 188.3 169.6 184.5 186.7 186.4 185.8 185.2 187.2 80 185.8 181.1 177.0 172.7 166.4 172.8 150.0 168.4 174.0 172.3 173.4 175.0 174.1 81 175.7 175.8 158.1 60.3 62.6 142.3 174.6 185.6 190.0 191.0 191.4 192.7 158.5 82 183.0 185.3 184.8 177.4 174.1 167.8 156.6 151.3 149.9 148.5 139.2 135.2 1'63.2 83 133.3 125.3 126.7 125.7 126.8 130.1 128.1 134.1 135.8 135.0 135.2 138.0 131.4 84 138.5 136.2 139.3 139.5 141.7 144.6 137.1 144.2 143.5 124.7 120.8 124.6 136.6 85 127.4 128.6 135.3 135.1 135.9 141.3 126.6 134.6 138.4 133.6 128.3 131.0 133.7 86 134.1 129.4 128.5 125.8 122.9 124.0 114.7 120.6 121.6 121.7 117.9 123.3 124.5 87 117.1 NONMETALLIC MINERALS. EXCEPT FUELS (SIC 14) INDEX OF AGGREGATE HOURS BASE-1967

YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC ANNUAL AVG

67 88.3 85.4 89.9 97.9 101.9 107.4 108.7 110.6 108.8 105.8 101.7 93.8 100.0 68 80.4 86.1 87.3 96.9 100.7 104.2 105.3 105.6 103.2 100.1 94.2 91.9 96.4 69 83.6 84.7 88.8 96.8 100.3 103.7 104.4 104.8 104.2 101.2 98.0 92.8 97.0 70 80.3 83.5 88.1 94.5 97.4 101.5 103.4 102.7 99.6 97.7 94.2 89.6 94.4 71 80.9 78.8 85.0 92.7 97.0 301.8 102.5 101.9 99.5 99.6 96.1 89.7 93.8 72 82.2 81.4 87.1 91.5 96.1 101.2 101.9 103.4 102.1 100.1 94.8 87.0 94.1 73 79.9 81.9 89.3 94.8 99.6 105.7 106.0 106.6 105.8 104.7 100.8 96.7 97.6 74 84.6 90.8 94.0 97.5 103.5 106.4 105.4 105.8 104.8 103.0 99.0 92.7 98.9 75 82.6 80.7 80.1 88.5 95.1 95.8 96.4 96.7 95.6 96.0 90.0 86.2 90.3 76 79.4 79.6 83.3 89.5 91.7 95.7 96.8 96.6 95.8 94.3 90.5 86.4 89.9 77 72.2 78.0 84.1 92.6 96.5 101.0 301.0 100.2 98.9 97.9 94.9 87.9 92.1 78 73.1 78.2 84.6 94.2 97.1 103.8 105.0 104.6 103.3 102.7 100.5 93.5 95.1 79 81.0 84.1 92.7 97.5 103.2 107.5 106.2 107.9 106.5 106.1 102.6 99.3 99.6 80 87.0 86.4 91.8 94.2 97.3 98.2 98.2 96.8 97.6 96.4 94.7 90.9 94.2 81 80.1 77.5 83.7 89.5 92.1 92.7 93.9 93.6 91.8 90.7 87.2 82.4 88.0 82 64.2 69.6 74.4 79.3 84.0 86.8 87.6 87.3 87.0 84.5 80.3 73.7 79.9 83 65.8 62.4 68.8 74.3 79.7 83.5 84.3 84.5 85.2 83.8 81.4 75.6 77.4 84 67.8 68.9 73.6 80.5 85.7 89.9 90.9 91.6 92.6 90.1 86.9 80.4 83.1 85 70.3 69.1 77.6 84.1 89.6 91.2 92.1 91.5 91.4 88.7 85.6 78.6 84.2 86 71.3 67.7 75.0 84.9 88.6 89.5 90.1 91.3 90.9 88.6 84.6 79.5 83.5 87 73.3 EMPLOYMENT-UNEMPLOYMENT

FRIDAY, MARCH 6, 1987

CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES, JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE, Washington, DC. The committee met, pursuant to notice, at 9:30 a.m., in room SD- 138, Dirksen Senate Office Building, Hon. Paul S. Sarbanes (chairman of the committee) presiding. Present: Senators Sarbanes and Proxmire; and Representatives Solarz and McMillan. Also present: Judith Davison, executive director; and William R. Buechner, Christopher J. Frenze, and Dena Stoner; professional staff members. Senator PROXMIRE [presiding]. The committee will come to order. Chairman Sarbanes has been delayed and he has asked us to go ahead so that we can move as rapidly as possible. Without objection, Chairman Sarbanes' opening statement will be put in the record at this point. [The written opening statement of Senator Sarbanes follows:]

(225) 226

WRITTEN OPENING STATEMENT OF SENATOR SARBANES, CHAIRMAN

BEFORE THE

JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE

"FEBRUARY EMPLOYMENT SITUATION"

March 6, 1987

This morning the Joint Economic Committee resumes its monthly hearings on the employment and unemployment situation with the figures for February 1987. We are pleased as always to welcome Janet Norwood, Commissioner of Labor Statistics.

Yesterday the Joint Economic Committee released its Annual

Report, which discusses in detail the economic problems that face the United States in 1987. Today, we will look at several of those problems, particularly high unemployment and the recent surge in inflation. 227

First, with respect to inflation, it must be noted that in January both the Producer Price Index and the Consumer Price

Index showed disturbing increases. Producer prices for finished goods rose 0.6 percent, after actually falling 1.5 percent in 1986. This rise occurred despite a 2 percent decline in food prices. The indec for intermediate goods rose 0.9 percent in January and the index for raw materials rose 2.9 percent.

At the same time, the Consumer Price Index rose 0.7 percent in January. The increase in the CPI for the entire year in 1986 was 1.1 percent.

Falling oil prices last year were largely responsible for the lowest inflation rate in 25 years. Oil prices rose somewhat at the end of the year, and OPEC is continuing its renewed efforts to keep prices up. The CPI figure for January reflects some upward movement, and raises questions about the trend in oil prices in the months ahead.

Apart from oil prices, there appear to be other upward pressures on prices. Even excluding energy, consumer prices in January rose 0.5 percent. 228

This trend is particularly disturbing because factory utilization rates have been trending downward since 1984, the high point following the 1982 recession, and are currently below 80 percent. Unemployment has not fallen significantly, and as the BLS reported this morning the unemployment rate in February was 6.7 percent, precisely the same as in January. Unemployment fell slightly for adults but rose for teenagers. There were some good signs -- employment rose by more than 300,000 in both the payroll and household surveys and manufacturing employment rose by 50,000. But there are still 8 million Americans unemployed and that remains a major problem for our economy.

The Committee will now hear from Commissioner Norwood. 229 Senator PROXMIRE. Congressman McMillan, do you have a statement of any kind? Representative McMILLAN. I have a brief statement. Senator PROXMIRE. Go right ahead, sir. OPENING STATEMENT OF REPRESENTATIVE MCMILLAN Representative MCMILLAN. It gives me great pleasure to welcome Commissioner Norwood here this morning again on your monthly visit, and once again Mrs. Norwood brings encouraging news. Employment as measured by the household survey rose 371,000 last month. This increase pushed the level of civilian employment to 111.4 million, a new record. More Americans are working now then ever before. - Another positive sign is the increase in the employment-population ratio. This important measure of the ability of our economy to provide enough jobs rose to 61.2 percent and this is another record high. Some of the recent economic figures haven't been all that positive, but these may have been distorted by tax consideration. In this regard, the healthy 335,000 jump in payroll employment, an important coincident indicator, is especially reassuring. - To date this expansion has created over 12 million new jobs for American workers. Today's report indicates that the strong employment performance continues. Furthermore, this morning's figures should dispel some of the doom and gloom we have been hearing lately about the health of the U.S. economy, and I thank you for coming this morning. Senator PROXMIRE. Thank you, sir. Go right head, Commissioner. STATEMENT OF HON. JANET L. NORWOOD, COMMISSIONER, BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR, AC- COMPANIED BY THOMAS J. PLEWES, ASSOCIATE COMMISSION- ER, OFFICE OF EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT STATIS- TICS; KENNETH V. DALTON, ASSOCIATE COMMISSIONER, OFFICE OF PRICES AND LIVING CONDITIONS; AND JEROME A. MARK, ASSOCIATE COMMISSIONER, OFFICE OF PRODUCTIVITY AND TECHNOLOGY Mrs. NORWOOD. Thank you, it's always a pleasure to be here to offer the Joint Economic Committee a few comments to supplement our Employment Situation news release. In February the labor force rose and more people found jobs. Un- employment held steady; for the third consecutive month, the overall jobless rate was 6.6 percent and the civilian rate was 6.7 percent. These rates are half a percentage point below the levels of a year ago. Indeed, they are the lowest since the spring of 1980. Both the business survey and the household survey showed strong employment growth from. January to February. Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 335,000 and total civilian employment in the household survey by 370,000. Since last October employment has increased by 1.2 million in both surveys. The pattern of job growth in the business survey continues to show expansion in the service producing industries. In February employment in retail trade rose by 130,000 with nearly half of the 230 growth in general merchandise stores. Employment in the services industry rose by 115,000 with sizable gains in business services and health services. Employment was also up in the rapidly growing finance, insurance, and real estate industry. On the goods-producing side, the number of factory jobs rose by 50,000 in February, but most of the increase represented the return to work of persons who had been involved in labor-management disputes in the previous month. Nevertheless, factory hours rose sharply reaching 41.2 hours in February, the highest level in two decades. Largely as a result of the increase in the workweek, the index of aggregate hours in manufacturing rose by 1 percent. Seasonally adjusted employment growth has been especially strong this year in the household survey. The proportion of the civilian working-age population with jobs reached a new high of 61.2 percent in February. Over the past year, that measure has risen by nearly a percentage, point, with all groups, blacks, whites, and His- panics, sharing in the employment increase. The labor force has risen by 2.2 million over the past year. Blacks have entered the labor force at almost twice the rate of whites, and the rate of labor force increase for the Hispanic population has been even greater than that of the black population. Indeed, the increases in labor force participation for both Hispan- ic men and women were greater than for either their white or black counterparts. A sizable number of Hispanic workers have found jobs over the past year. Although they comprise only about 7 percent of all U.S. workers, Hispanics accounted for 23 percent of the overall increase in employment. The jobless rate for Hispanic workers fell a full percentage point in February to 9.6 percent, about halfway between the 14.3 percent jobless rate for blacks and the 5.7 percent for whites. In fact, the Hispanic rate was the only one among all the major population groups which showed any significant change from January to Feb- ruary. The number of Hispanic workers is relatively small, however, and we need several months of data to indicate that a trend has occurred. Although little movement occurred in unemployment rates for other groups of the population from January to February, the median duration of unemployment dropped to 6.6 weeks. Of some concern, however, is the fact that the number of persons working part time because they could not find full-time jobs rose to 5.8 million in February. This series is more than 30,000 higher than a year earlier. In summary, the data for February showed that the labor market improvement of the last few months continued. Unemploy- ment rates were unchanged, but considerably lower than early last year. Both surveys show strong job growth, especially in services and retail trade. Although the number of factory jobs changed little over the month, factory hours were in the highest level in 20. years. Mr. Chairman, last week the Bureau of Labor Statistics introduced the revised Consumer Price Index. That, as you know, is a large project. It took 5 years at a cost of something like $45 million. It was done on time and within budget. You may want to review with us some of those changes later, but I would like permission to 231' insert in the record a short report describing the CPI revision and its improvement. Senator PRoxMIRE. Of course. Without objection, so ordered. Mrs. NORWOOD. And now I and Mr. Dalton on my right, our price expert, and Mr. Plewes on my left, our employment and unemployment expert will be glad to try and answer any questions. [The table attached to Mrs. Norwood's statement; together with the news release and the CPI report, follows:] Unemployment rates of all civilian workers by alternative seasonal adjustment methods

X-11 ARIMA method -11 method Month Unad- Concurrent (official Range and justed Official (as first Concurrent Stable Total Residual method (colo. year rate procedure computed) (revised) IIbefore 1980) 2-8) (1)5 (c2e) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

1986

February.... 7.8 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.3 .1 March ...... 7.5 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 .1 April ...... 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 .1 ED May ...... 7.0 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 - June ...... 7.3 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 - July ...... 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 6.9 7.0 7.0 .1 August ...... 6.7 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.9 7.0 6.8 .2 September... 6.8 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 - October .... 6.6 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.0 6.9 6.9 7.0 .1 November.... 6.6 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.0 .1 December.... 6.3 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.7 .1

1987

January ..... 7.3 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.7 .2 February .... 7.2 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.7 6.5 6.7 .2

SOURCE: U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Bureau of Labor Statistics March 1987 233

(1) Unadjusted rate. Unemploymenr rate for all ctivilan workers, ortseanonaly adjonred.

(2) Official procedure (X-li ARIRAmethod). The published seasonally adjusted rate for all civilianwrkern. Each of the 3 major civlian labor force cooponents--agricultoral employment, nonagricultural employment and uneoployment--for 4 age-sem groups--aleu and females. ages 16-19 and 20 years and over--are seasonally adjusted independently using data fram January 1975 forward. The data series for each of these 12 components are extended by a year at each end of the original series using ARIK.A(Auto-Regressie, Integrated M.oing Average) models chosen specifically for each series. Each extended series is then seasonally acjusted with the X-li portion of the X-1l ARIMAprogram. The 4 teenage unemployment and nonagrIcultural employment components are adjusted with the additive adjustment model, while the other components are adjusted with the multIplicative model. The uneploym.ent rate is c-nputed by summing the 4 seasonally adjusted unemployment umuponents and calculalting that total as a percent of the civilian labor force total derived by .sinnng all 12 seasonally adjusted components. All the seasonally adjusted series are revised at the end of each year. Extrapolated factors for January-June are computed at the beginning of each year; entrapulated factors for July-December are computed in the middle of the year after the June data become a ailable. Each set of 6-month factors are published in adance, in the January and July issues respectively of tMPlOYmemt and Earnings.

(3) Concurrent (as first computed U-il ARIMAmethod). The official procedure for computation of the rate for all civli-an workers using the 12 components is followed except that extrapolated factors are not used at all. Each component is seasonally adjusted with the X-1l ARIMAprogram each onth as the most recent data become avaIlable. Rates for each month of the current year are shown an first compured; they are revised only once each year, at the end of the year when data for the full year become available. For example, the rare for January 1985 would be based, during 1985, on the adjustment of data from the perIod January 1975 through Janoary 1985.

(4) Connurrent (revised. X-li ARIMAmethod). The procedure used is identical to (3) sbove and the rate for the current month (the last month displayed) will always be the same in the two columns. However, all previous months are subject to revision each month based on the seasonal adjustment of all the components with data through the current month.

(5) Stable (X-Ul ARIMAmethod). Each of the 12 civilian labor force components is eutended using ARIMAmodels as in the official procedure and then run through the X-il part of the program using the stable option. This option assomes that seasonal patterns are bhsically constant from year-to-year and computes final seasonal factors as unweghted averages of all the measonal-irregular components for each month across the entire span of the period adjusted. As in the official procedure, factors. are entrapolated in 6-month Intervals and the series are revised at the end of each year. The procedure for computation of the rate from the seasonally adjusted components is also Identical to the official procedure.

(6) Total (X-il ARUMAmethod). This is one alternative aggregation procedure, in which total unemployment and clvlian labor force levels are estended with ARIMAmodels and directly adjusted with multiplitatie adjustment models in the X-li part of the program. The rate is computed by taking seasonally adjusted total unemployment as a percent of seasonally adjusted total civilian labor force. Factors are extrapolated in 6-month Intervals and the series revised at the end of each year.

(7) Residual (X-il ARIMAmethod). This is another alternative aggregation method, in which total civilian employment and civilian labor force levels are extended using ARIMA models and then dJrectly.adjusted with multiplicative adjustment models. The seasonally adjusted unemployment level is derived by subtracting seasonally adjusted employment from seasonally adjusted labor force. The rate is then computed by taking the derived unemployment level ax a percent of the labor force level. Factors are extrapolated in 6-onnth intervals and the series revised at the end of each year.

(8) X-ll method (official method before 1980). The method for computation of the official procedure Is used except that the series are not extended with ARIMAmodels and the factors are projenced is 12-month intervals. The standard X-li program is used to perform the seasonal adjustment.

Methods of Adjustment: The X-li ARIMAmethod was developed at Statistics Canada by the Seasonal Adjustment and Times Series Staff under the direction of Estela Bee Daguom. The method is described in The X-11 ARIMASeasonal Adjustment Method, by Esteis Bee Dago, Statistics Canada Catalogue No. 12-564E, February 1980.

The standard S-il m thod is described in X-il Variant of the Census Method II Seasonal Adjustment Progr, by Julius Shiskin, Allan Young and John Musgrave (Technical Paper No. 15, Buream of the Census, 1967). 234

e V s United States ~~~Departmnent

Technical information: (202) 523-1371 USDL 87-93 523-1944 523-1959 TRANSMISSION OF MATERIAL IN THIS Media contact: 523-1913 RELEASE IS EMBARGOEDUNTIL 8:30 A.M. (EST), FRIDAY, MARCH6, 1987

THE EMPLOYMENTSITUATION: FEBRUARY 1987

Employment continued to rise in February, and unemployment was at the same level for the third straight month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The overall unemployment rate was 6.6 percent and the civilian worker rate was 6.7 percent; both were half a percentage point below year-earlier figures.

Nonagricultural payroll employment--as measured by the monthly survey of establishments--rose by 335,000 in February, while civilian employment--as measured by the monthly survey of households--was up by 370,000. Both employment series have increased by nearly 1.2 million since last October.

Unemployment (Household Survey Data)

The number of unemployed persons was unchanged in February, remaining at a seasonally adjusted level of about 8.0 million. The jobless rate for civilian workers of 6.7 percent remained at its lowest point in nearly 7 years.

Jobless rates for most major labor force groups--adult men (5.9 percent), adult women (5.8 percent), teenagers (18.0 percent), whites (5.7 percent), and blacks (14.3 percent)--showed little or no movement from their January levels. The unemployment rate for Hispanics, which is relatively volatile, dropped to 9.6 percent. (See tables A-2 and A-3.)

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons--sometimes referred to as the partially unemployed--increased by 275,000 in February. Their total has generally fluctuated in the 5.5 to 5.8 million range for the past 3 years. (See table A-4.)

Civilian Employment and the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)

Civilian employment rose by 370,000 in February, after seasonal adjustment, following a similar increase in the prior month, as the proportion of the civilian population that is employed edged up to a new high of 61.2 percent. The gain was concentrated among married women, whose employment rose by 290,000. (See tables A-2 and A-4.) 235

The civilian labor force continued to expand, rising by 315,000 to a seasonally adjusted level of 119.3 million. The labor force participation rate rose to 65.6 percent, also a new high. Over the year, the labor force was up by 2.2 million, with adult women accounting for nearly 3 out of every 5 added members.

Table A. Major indicators of labor market activity, seasonally adjusted

Quarterly Monthly data averages Category Jan.- 1986 1986 1987 Febn _F change III______1 IV Dec. Jan. Feb. HOUSEHOLD DATA I Thousands of persons Labor force 1/...... 119,866 120,308 120,336 120,782 121,089 307 Total employment 1/.. 111,675 112,170 112,387 112,759 113,122 363 Civilian labor force... 118,171 118,558 118,586 119,034 119,349 315 Civilian employment.. 109,980 110,420 110,637 111,011 111,382 371 Unemployment...... 8,191 8,138 7,949 8,023 7,967 -56 Not in labor force..... 62,664 62,807 62,961 62,793 62,649 -144 Discouraged workers.. 1,150 1,127 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.

Percent of labor force Unemployment rates: All workers 1/ ...... 6.8 6.8 6.6 6.6 6.6 0 All civilian workers. 6.9 6.9 6.7 6.7 6.7 0 Adult men...... 6.1 6.1 6.0 6.0 5.9 -0.1 Adult women...... 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.8 -.1 Teenagers ...... 18.1 17.8 17.3 17.7 18.0 .3 White...... 6.0 6.0 5.8 5.9 5.7 -.2 Black...... 14.5 14.1 13.7 14.3 14.3 0 Hispanic origin.... 10.8 10.2 10.5 10.6 9.6 -1.0 ESTABLISHMENT DATA Thousands of jobs Nonfarm employment..... lu,~1o ii'us Z 10172,322 plUI ,641 plo0,978 p337 Goods-producing ...... 24 ,872 24,892 24,920 p25,009 p25,059 7 6 7 p50 Service-producing .... 75,444 76,180 76,402 p 6, 32 p 6,919 p287

Hours of work Average weekly hours: 3 Total private.. 34.7 34.7 34.6 p34.8 p 5.0 pO.2 Manufacturing...... 40.7 40.8 40.8 p40.9 p41.2 p.3 Overtime...... 3 3.5 3.5 3.5 p3.6 p .6 pO

1/ Includes the resident Armed Forces. N.A.-not available. p=preliminary. 236

Industry Payroll Employment (Establishment Survey Data)

Total nonagricultural payroll employment rose by 335,000 in February, reaching a seasonally adjusted level of nearly 102 million. There have been increases of at least 240,000 in each of the last 6 months, with the largest in January and February. As in previous months, the February gain occurred largely in the service-producing sector, reflecting increases in the services and retail trade industries, the latter particularly in general merchandise stores. The finance, insurance, and real estate industry also experienced an employment increase. (See table B-i.)

Manufacturing employment rose by 50,000, due in large part to the return of workers after settlement of labor disputes in the steel and machinery industries. While there was a small rebound in motor vehicles and equipment, most other factory payrolls, both in durables and nondurables, were little changed.

Employment in the other goods-producing industries was essentially unchanged. Mining remained at a very low level, and the construction industry, which had risen markedly in January after seasonal adjustment, was unchanged in February.

Weekly Hours (Establishment Survey Data)

The average workweek of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls expanded by 0.2 hour to 35.0 hours, seasonally adjusted. Weekly hours in manufacturing rose 0.3 hour to 41.2. This was the longest factory workweek since November 1966. (See table B-2.)

As a result of the increase in both employment and hours of work, the index of aggregate weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls rose by 1.1 percent to 121.1 (1977-100), seasonally adjusted. The manufacturing index rose by almost the same magnitude to 94.5. (See table B-5.)

Hourly and Weekly Earnings (Establishment Survey Data)

Average hourly earnings rose 0.5 percent in February, after allowance for seasonality, while weekly earnings increased 1.0 percent. Prior to seasonal adjustment, hourly earnings rose by 2 cents to $8H89 and weekly earnings were up $2.46 to $307.59. Over the year, hourly earnings rose 15 cents and weekly earnings were up $6.93. (See table B-3.)

The Hourly Earnings Index (Establishment Survey Data)

The Hourly Earnings Index (HEI) was 171.4 (1977-100) in February, seasonally adjusted, an increase of 0.5 percent from January. For the 12 months ended in February, the increase was 1.9 percent. The HEI excludes the effects of two types of changes unrelated to underlying wage rate 237

movements-fluctuations in manufacturing overtime and interindustry employment shifts. In dollars of constant purchasing power, the HEI increased 0.9 percent during the 12-month period ended in January. (See table B-4.)

The Employment Situation for March 1987 will be released on Friday, April 3, at 8:30 A.M. (EST). 238

Explanatory Note

Thinnes rele presentsatistia frometwo major surveys. thtattime; andthey madeapecific efforts to find employnent the Current Population Survey(household urvey)and the sometimeduring theprior 4 weeks.Persons laid off from their Current Employment Statitics Survey(establithent survey). former jobs and awaiting recalland thos enpectingto report The householdsurvey provides the information on the labor to a job within 30 days neednot be looking for work to be force, total employment,and unemploymentuat appearsin countedas unemployed. the A tables,marked HOUSEHOLD DATA. It it a sample The liborfoprr equbsthe sum of the numberemployed and surveyof about 59,500households that in conductedby the the number unemployed.The oterrnployment rn'e is the Bureauof the Censuswith mostof the findings analyzedand percentage.of unemployedpeople in the labor force(civilian publisted by the Bureauof Labor Sttistislasts plus the residentArmed Forca). TabloA-5 presentsa special The establishmentaurvey provides the information on the grouping of sevenUsaSUr of unemplOymentbhsed on vay- employment, hours, and earnings of workers on ing defsisinui of unemploymentand the labor force. The nonagricutural payrollsthat appearsin the B tables,marked defunitionsare provided in the table. The most restrictive ESTABLISHMENT DATA. Thin information it collected deflnitio yieldsU-I andthe most oomprehensieyields U-7. from payroll recordby aisincooperation with Stateagencs. The overall unemploymentrate Is U-a while U-5b represents The sampleincludes 250,00 establihmentsemploying over 35 the samemttm, with a civilian lbor forcebhse. million people. Unlike the bouseholdsurvey. theestablishtmnt surveyonly For both surveys,the data for a givenmonth ar actually countswage and salary employes whosenames appear on the collectedfor andrate to a particular week.In the household payroll recordsof nontagicultural fItrms.As a result.there are survey,unless otherwite indicated, it b the candar weekthat many differences betwen thetwo survy, amongwhich ar contains the 12tMday of the month, whichit calledthe survey the following: week.In the establishmentsurvey, the referencework it the Th. boud sae. bAt ed S , a pay period including the 12th,which may or maynot corres- hra. sl&e pershem; mkeaabt*ems amvobdd Wicekr. pond direcly to the calendarweek. O. att-Pb7W. .d ftft .ka W- ua.M mi ad The data in thin r areaffected by anumber of technical nedb de midas A..d Fume factos, Including dft, surveydifference, seasonalad- -MTh bo-okei soo Wdd.d par c d ksv .. Or justments, and the inevitable variancein results betwen a surveyof a sampleand a cemuasof theentire population. Each of thea factors in eplae below. ...bfd- _- ,,ea s sob-b dn W. lb." sretd amr Inhe. e One tOru es ai aide C00veamgdttHntiont andel 1t h a a a, sav p -..The e~~~brsoff.sbiune.6a _ ..s~n rdlidt.bs.fi0b o b1s The samplehouseholds in thebousehold survey are selected so asto reflect the ntie civilia noninsutional population 16 yearnof ageand older. Each personin a householdit Other differenes betwemnthe two surveysare described in clasifled asemployed, unemployed, or not in the bMooforce. tComnpaingEmployment Estimatesfrom Household and Thosewho hold morethan onejob ar classifiedaccording to Payroll Surveys." which maybe obtained from theatUs upon the job at which they workedthe mosthours. request. Peopleae classifiedas uemloyedif they did any work at all aspaid civilians; worked in their own businessor profeasionor Mltt n on their own farm; or worked 15hours or more in an emer- Over the cours of a yenr,the sizeof the Nation's labor priseoperated by a memberof their famdly,whether they were force and the levelsof employmentand unemployment paidor not. Peopleare also counted as employed if theywore undergo sharp fluctuations due to suckseasonal events as on unpaid klav becauseof illness.bad weather, disputes be- changesin weather,reduced or enpoudedproduction, ba- tween bor andmanagesent, or personalreaons. Members vests.major holidays, and theopening and closing of schoob. of theArmed Force sationed in the United Statesare also in- For esample,the Labor force increases by a largenumber each eludedin the employedtotal. June,when rchools closeand many young peopleenter the job People are classifiedas unenwtploYed.regardless of their market. The effort of such seasonalvariation Calnbe very eligibility for unemploymentbenefits or public assistanceif large;over the courseof a year.for examPc. seasonalitymay they meetall of the following criteria: They hadno enmply- accountfor as much as 95 percentof the month-to-month meentlluring thesurvey week; they wereavailable for work at changosin unemployment. 239

Because these seasonalevents follow a mor or less regular from the results of a complete census. The chancesare approx- patter each year, their influence on statistical trends can be imately 90 out of 100 that an estimate based on the sample will eliminated by adjusting the statistics from month to month. differ by no more than 1.6 times the standard error from the These adjustments make nonseasonal developments, such as results of a complete census. At approximately the 90-peremt declines in economic activity or increases in the participation level of confidence-the confidence hmits used by sLs in its of women in the labor force, easier to spot. To return to the analyses-the error for the monthly change in total employ- school's-out example, the large number of people entering the ment is on the order of plus or minus 328,000; for total labor force each June is likely to obscure any other changes unemployment it is 220,0Oi; and, for the overall unemploy- that have taken place since May, making it difficult to deter- ment rate, it is 0f19 percentage point. These figures do not mine if the level of economic activty has risen or declined. mean that the sample results are off by these magnitudes but. However, because the effect of students finishing school in rather, that the chances are approximately 90 out of 100 that previous years is known, the statistics for the current year can the "true" level or rate would not be expected to differ from be adjusted to allow for a comparable change. Insofar as the the estimates by more than theseamounts. seasonaladjustment is made correctly, the adjusted figure pro- Sampling errors for monthly surveys are reduced when the vaes a more useful tool with which to analyze changes in data are cumulated for several months, such as quarterly or economic activisy. annually. Also, as a general rul, the smaller the estimate, the Measures of labor force, employment, and unemployment larger the sampling rror. Therefore, relatively speaking, the contain components such as age and sex. Statistics for all estimate of the size of the labor force is subject to less error employees, production workers, average weekly hours, and than is the estimate of the number unemployed. And, among average hourly earnings include components based on the the unemployed, the sampling error for the jobless rate of entpylyer's industry. All these statistics can be seasonally ad- adult men, for example, is much smaller than is the error for justed either by adjusting the total or by adjusting each of the the jobless rate ofteenagers. Specifically, the error on monthly components and combining them. The second procedure change in the jobless rate for men is .26 percentage point; for usually yields more accurate information and is therefore teenagers, it is 1.25 percentage points. followed by aLS. For example, the seasonally adjusted figure In the establishment surey, estimates for the 2 most current for the labor force is the sum of eight seasonally adjusted months are based on incomplete returns; for this reason, these civilian employment components, plusthe resident Armed estimates are labeled preliminary in the tables: When all the Forcestotal (not adjusted for seasonality), and four seasonally returns in the sample have been received, the estimates are adjusted unemployment components; the total for unemploy- revised. In other words, data for the month of September are ment is the sum of the four unemployment components; and published in preliminary form in October and November and the overall unemployment rate is derived by dividing the in final form in December. To remove erors that build up resulting estinate of total unemployment by the estimate of over time, a comprehensive count of the employed is con- the labor force. ducted each year. The results of this surey are used to The numerical factors used to make the seasonal ad- establish new benchmarks-comprehensive counts of justments are recalculated regularly. For the household employment-against which month-to-month changes can be surey, the factors are calculated for the January-June period measured. The new benchmarks also incorporate changes in and again for the July-December period. At the time the first the classification of industries and allow for the formation of half year's factors are calculated (upon availability of data for new establishments. December), historical data for the previous 5-year period ace subject to revision. For the establishment survey. updated factors for seasonaladjustment ae calculated only once a year, Additional statistlcs and other Intormatlon along with the introduction of new benchmarks which are In order to provide a broad view of the Nation's employ- discussedas the end of the next section. ment situation, BLSregularly publishes a wide variety of data in this news release. More comprehensive statistics are contain- Sampling varIabilIty ed in Employment and Earnings. published each month by Statistics based on the household and establishment surveys BLS. I is available for S4.50 per issue or S31.00 per year from are subject to sampling error, that is, the estimate of the the U.S. Govenment Printing Office, Washington, D.C., number of people employed and the other estimates drawn 20204. A check or money order made out to the Superinten- from thesesurveys probably differ from the figures that would dent of Documents must accompany all orders. be obtained from a complete census,even if the samequestion- Employment and Earnings also provides approximations of nairs and procedures were used. In the household survey, the the standard erors for the household surey data published in amount of the differences can be expressedin terms of stand- this release. For unemployment and other labor force ard ero. The numerical value of a standard error depends categories, the standard erors appear in tabbs B through J of upon the size of the sample, the results of the surey, and other its "Explanatory Notes." Measures of the reliability of the factors. However, the numerical value is always such that the data drawn from the establishment surey and the actual chancesare approximately 68 out of lO that an estimate based amounts of revision due to benchmark adjustments are pro- on the sample will differ by no more than the standard eror vided in tables M, 0, P, and Q of that publication. 240

HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA tea Tes A-1. mpi5lW t statue of the M .nluding Aimed F01eeIn thn UnitedStates by ~-38 ______'_'___ _ No- r od .... . e_____F.W...... J.t I ! FF.,Oe

j ij W 1 I -.. VWA l s 3,1$ Ao~~~~~~....~~~~1& 2 * | 2:l ..V;IC 't-N 11 2.735 11 .14 1.2,i 182.73 IS .4 ...... _~w 1 103575 183.73 180,2 110,248Xi.11.041 112,8 112.082 I.so i11l3,15276 708057 10.06 1.82 11120

10 ,731,° '.7 1.074evi ° .74t -720t8 . 10,671 1.7 8l3. . 40 .° 7 i .°o1 7222 2. 111.33 .I,68 107i-0 07.l463 *2017 ii1.2 11*10.j61s|*2i7i Oot.,0e ii7 !0.5 6. P.3aa31000' 64.7 6S~~~~1101.2 ' 6. S. 37

8,53 1 07.602 87.3 77 8$7,868 88.020 88,077 _ _ _Sp 86.055 80.020 88.077* ! 6. 800 .8 66,701 I 61,0 67 607 | 61-25 j 67,612 I 67.764 _Ik lhl0 .. 788a-~~~~~~O"-- 0 63.SS 60.745 .721li~j62,132 62.545 62,0335|278 j j 37 7600 j _ 7- is aw i-

.570 1 .3 A- 9 ...... j .527 1,S 5 1.5 I.,.4jj58... 5

108 6.4; 6 7. 7. s46. I 76. 76.

55.030 5.3 53.318 50,2 _ W7 51,510 52.579 5,0 a5233.. , 55.0 525.°2 jS55. Si55.7 35j.6 55.0l 55.1 S53.8 88i 55.5 37,00 *7.401 6.572 4 7,70 1_v*_ 4~~~~~~~7.860,t003 67,282 *8.106 67,376 50.6 .7 51°i06.8 d S6.8 8 51.6.6- 53.t7.6 S i52j.. bFlo,.250.S800*r0.ooblraO . 0..8 51.7. 51.5. 37,637 37.8 0683 37.3426 37.754 I 37217 I 67,171 108.206 67.415 C el__ 3.3 3,338S _~8 6.60 0.560 3.i521 3.870 0.6571.6 I 8.s510 6.s s76. 6. 8508887.6r8~~~ 7.5 6. 6. 751. [ ... LJ.iL 1500707ill 33 76080411138p83111 _llt 808i61t p0870_0 atod. 8000080*0276701 * 486C0la7000898 8 018800 0Cn_5388 700 _ clanlO23 168327 8 .* _JS13878 241

HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA TableA.2. Employmentstatus. of15the arill populat1ionby sax anidage

C 84.o-- w.b. - 1"P84 4. 84 0.. 3.0.. PS C,---...... - 084 008 084 000 40

...... 7.3 0.2

08.000 05.032 '..'.....:. w.".Pw ...... 03....28 0,9,

C~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~0. 000 20 880. 81 ...8503..020.0...3..3.,00..822 8.2 000028200800 ...... 0.4.03. 03.0.0.4 03. 05. I 3...... 825 2 ,08 2480 2,200 2,303 2.230 2.54 2,0 003704003010250002040088. 55.800 ~~~~~58,2485`.20 55,0355 5.8 5.82 5.2 5,05 5.4 2980'034 ,380 ,8000, 300 5.80 I 8,2 305 3.2 3.8 4'0,8 1" r82t.4. 0.2.0.3..4...... 2.....88.8.3.5.

E.oOO.o...... 3 '.03 .48 3 04 . 87 4 05 4 4 48 20040405 05 52 535 5*0 82 o..5.42..28..8. Ooo.Iovo.4,.o3 ...... 5I2520 5.4 3.4 F 5.4 5 52.Is 521.5 .

...... 5..0 8.4 . 8.0 5.I. 5... 5.

8 58 ...... A00000390....049840.0448 0.40 0558 4,8 0.50 555 0,58 0455 4.4

401834 045040048 253 258 230 25...'0 284 20 IN4.4S048841588 ,3 i 5-0by88I 8.2 .25 422 820I .0

0 242

HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA TableA,. Employmentsatusu at the clvllIan population by rcne, sax, age.cand Hispenio origin

. &O 8- t S0 - . 0. 09.00 I ______1I_ ___l______d

I cS. ract. '. Oc 0.3 1OctI: I Hoc.i I 0c..i I Oct.i I p;.c

Oltlltlc0.to...... t... ~ 62 11,0 ~,7 t227 12.5 200 0270 0,7

...... tH t.06 to?, soo 0,cc ".00 t..t..,t

hoc'~ to scoot ~ - ~-~ ~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~4 5zi s; to c. .~ct.. .51 SO.t.0.00.0.0..c t5.5 ,01.tt..50....0 17

Cc S" c- -

ct.ct T. t c/ f.. c t .5.0. .5.. . .5.5. .0 6.0.. 5.2 .2 5.o s.c .

E. .4l.. d ...... 5.22...5,2 ...... 5 01. 5,706.. .7 0 , tS .0 2 5, 8

occcploc.H 1,115 1,008 l~~~~~~~~~~~tOtOO1~ 21,071 c1tct 1,026 cOO I105 . .t ...... 6 0.6.2.1 6.5. .0 I S.3 - I6 0 0 1 0 0 . M.8.0oo-- .0.4...0.5.6. c6 0 S . ...c . c 6. tooc~~c~o 16.1 10.0 cO.0 IS. 0 15.2 15.7 10.6 1tO.0I's t5.

...... to ltooc...... 1886.2,17.0.c.co..2005...20 2c...2.07.0,1 020 1 07 .12..0...... 2.80 0 12.72....2..2.15.2..t.....I.,50

Pocco,. ..cct... . 02.0 62.2 62.0 0... 03 6. 0. 06 6. tl - Qcooc.0,40..t .....7 .7.. .t.. ...0.5 O.. 2.. 0 10. 60 - 28t ~ o (H W tl c~. 10 .....l t c~ o 2 0 0 . 0. 0 0 5 . 0. 5 0 5 . E. . .tl ...... 2.. . ..6 l.- c l .02 51 I .0 0 t. 7 0 1.00 0 o c oS5

...... I ...... 1.. 8.1 0. 1 0. 0 1 0.5 .10 O t . 1 5 t S .0 7 . a..~ Uboo. ~ -~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~3:2 ~ 3 . .I 00 0 01 0 8. I 10 .2.5 ..7.0 ..6 .7.5 5 , 2 , 6 5.9. .500.5...... 00 2 EP c.tl o ...... t ...t o.,.7 .0.7 07.7 0.6.0 .5.. o,.7 5.

W0PUsc -on- O l lw ...... 7.56 5 . 1 0. 0 9 1 0 00 7 t oc S506 0 5. 0 7 .~0 ' 0 0 clot~c.. 50.0....50.8....07.5.. 50.6 58.1c 55.0 50.5 56 0. .oc.o ... 0..5105...8..06...57.5.00.,18...2...25 Eocooo...... tctool...... 5.0...7 01.5....5.0.....5.7.2.0 52. E.o tPt o 7 -7 1 7 0 70 20 t to o 72 76 0: I -S Occ ...... octtm .. 12 5 2.1 2. c2 502 0c .S 2. l. .12. 50000-.ccooogjoor.s Oolcc .c ...... 770 704 770 " 8 0 Ott. 0 0 I .,501

*70 ccoto8ca e dotdo .cc oltc:c-a acc. ut0.50w-a.11, ~oI~ oe 809-t o 243

HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA

Ta £4 Seletota _ebyit tiFllors

....._...... h .. - - 6

06d70l73~..3 .~ 24.313 27.470 20.422ZZ745ZS ss 27. 323 Z7.3 -0C4Z0 20Z3S 27.37 Wn7301003...... oa 5,37J .5* S.-Z 00...... 0...7. 063 c_ ~~~~~~~~~~~T F 5243.r0"n 4,1; F O4.4 4.0OC;F v CteJ0S-5 S; 00

Z 7733 ..... 1 1 Z 7,S 1,12 1.Z 7.52 7.42. 1ZS. .4OF.1...70 z67373133o3l lT287O15.2r711.500 1.Z4 rXi441.37.551401.7014S

737331337470.33~~~~~~~7 7135 0 02s 73 ZS143 132 12 Z 734X ZOZ24

006ZZ730?3 ?5 74,3 14,3? 51.60 ?413 144 1447 ?444 -741 ?14.33 13X0.303.0.733.2 -5,73 62,37 61,348 67.34 32.324 32,472 82.71 Z3--S Z.21 133630*I3 7.73 ,1443 1.12 1,2380 Cs1,1 XOs1.113 1772 40 12041 733 73.4F_363.43753.34650.2375 .7.344 81.223 07 .332 51.201 52,37 333833333333 23-2 2335 237- 247 43ss 23s2S2 7324 233Zs

POeh 4 WO bJP~saRT OW

-7*30-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~0-f

7.3333 73.603737 333030 s T" ~~ b ~ ~a T unmloyent tmossums btsd an varying d Tftnitioso nmlone/dXnt an~d the labor tome,

W lo d 3M Dl

334W33 J016380373ol733M7674_7,7* .0 6 6 ...... ~ e eo h3 ...... 0 . 70 70 ss s ~ ~ ~

U.0 003333R.DS~.... .~s.. r9r ...... 7.7 .7 7.4.3 4.4.7...74..1 T4_ ral 11 _ m orl e ...... ~~~~~...... ^ N.^ ".^ 349603. ".3374 *-37pe 3333333333333 33- 323W7 3...... a 3 2 3 3 6 .333 3...... 244

HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA TableA4 elecotedunemWplomet Indlcdon,. eseemsailyadjusted

9...... a. .. .. F . os o . . D . J . 1 I L 19fi 98473flas 17 7,37 7 3 8 4 73 8 7 8 7 9 8 8 4 -_

7 4.7 Tai ......

M..n78w 3.38 ...... 8 4 29 . .0 . .7 8...... 5

...... 3 4 .2 .2 . .8 4.0 5.3

. aYln~...... rb ______*.I.77.7.-. *3Oin8.3333 35885 7.2 3,443 77.7 273 77.77 8.553

d~...... s$8s8T5fiETZt75s11.a Wr .U3 ...... 13,8 4414. 4. 5.3 3.9 3.8

4.9 3 7...... 5 5.8 3.3 4.8 4.8 Ma,7w337W788888338 7.4 7.4 7.4 Wlt 0 .0.7..3...... 7 -- -l ...... 1 z- s4 s S s ~ . . ~ AW~74l 97 734 . 737...... 3.. 24

03A 13784 b784 n7P.3.772.277.47a 739 3 .d 7

Tal XT. Drtlon of J-

3.4.ZZ 933788W3338 3,757..7.473, 3.44 5Z.3 5T.4 3.4 5r.7 3.Z

4. 7 3 , 3 ,4 7. .3 .4...... 34.8 0 .8 ...... s..s.e5...... 8~?A9$2s35*s-az8 11 I 4.z 13 . 10b,833388o__f i ...... 984 883 ...... 833 7....' : 2

11_ ...... D21.o2i5 s5rs61*Xss 24. 8 4. 3 _nt ...... 7 9 .....828 837 237 5.3 5 . . 3 . .8 7.8 7. . . .3 7. r k...... *.2-...... 4 e72X*w...... sts S

_ 11B1_'1110" ~ 11: 77.5 77.4 77.2 .7_ ...... 8 02 7 .9 78.7 *5o.4W 38. ,.. 39.0 S783 , .372po .9 3338338397.. 245'

HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA T "Is £4 R ing.,mmf r 0 yu1~l s o

OP unemp55omb~95~

J~~bkPVPP ...... 4 Jo, 4.4 (MWA",::::: ...... " 4...... 4458 Z.5a'. 954 9 J.. 1...... w2 . I:w1. .So tbm , 1" "P- bIM ...... ,5....4~4 5.55 ...... S 550...... I0S4 .0 75 ,., *

bab"Pa ... 400.0.. 405.5...... 00.4 0 .4 00 400 4 4 0 0 . 0 . - - 5.4 044O5.5 4. 447p5.4 40. 0.8F0. 55.54 8.A455L9 74 .4N4. 42449 59 .0 2. k~~aP, ...... 08..45..05..45..05...... 5.. - P ...... 0.424...... 2.....0....4...... 2..2.24.2.2.2 28.5 25..2....25.4.2...... 0...0...... 2...... 2..44...0.

...... 4 .4

i --.. mm3'6 " ...... o.. 0.4 a... ob

,IPPS,4Va.400...... 9,448...... 47.7....2 44.0 47.7' 4.0 Ifta,",b-Iad...... 844 844 2.8.4...208.455.24. 20.

8,09 7 52,1 0. ..5 5.50. 50

10f4,at, 444.4..444 47.2...0.4.2.97.0.484.97.

*4e5202s 474 440 243~~~~~~~~~~~~I'41.5 4.0 4.4 4o.. . . .P55557w . .. 5.....4...... 75....4.....2....42.4.42.7- 92.5 U5557 559...... 0...... 25I.9I 95.8 44.. 45.4 45.7 942 246

HOUSEHOLD DATA " HOUSEHOLD DATA Table X1O. Empoyonot statua of black and 00 wi

0.1...... F*S. _.05. _ 4... P.. F*3. O~t. 00. ,,30 1387 .387 ,flO 380 2300 7300 .387 2307

2. 0 2 . 5 2,.5...... 0...... C na31 2. 3 5.7 .0 2.3

407 CUtl103nat033 .... I. . I. 27......

50 3¢ 3 I dP. 351 53.7 55. 53. 5&0.1 50.3~ellF 00033030203elah...... i .i...... -;.Z7.JXt ZbOS.rZ.1s 2.055 .37 20. 0030*3 In33 dl 2.I0 2.7 2.710 2.0I

Tabla A1i. Oempatioai status of tha wmpoya and wuamoloyad. notmacaoolly *4Dio 73 08 5 3 * ______.

. rb . Fb. Fb b.

3,001 0.303 7.5 7.2 ...... 302 30 2. 20 _ , _... d _ ...... 2.23 1.72 P._ 7 ...... ~...... 13J.t07 70,522 ...... 33.703 33.5,, 7.07,s 0.000 5.3 4.0 TblI nlerl SW0 ...... ISO 233 3.3 4.1 5.00 0.203 3.3 | ...... 1 ...... 024 753 0.7 32.03 23,751T 320 731 0.3 3.2 04 ...... i.e ...... "I1 1,470 1,373 3., 0.5 ...... r_...... 07 17o 05 7.2 T-.ss5 .e". ll, dr...... 1,307 1,135 3.5 7.3 3.3 3.0 nF- M p ...... 220 275 ~ ~ 753 050 74.0 72Z.0 C _...... I 5 .Z0~ u l ...... e : ...... 572 203^ 7.3 0.2 ': .... -2 ...... T_~~~~ ~ ~~~..a4 .e..s...... I. 330 300 10.7 11.2 577 75 11.7 70.2 ,1Z1 , _ a_, ripan...- n .~~~...... 031 043 15.5 25.0 Xs. 1. 223 235 27.0 Zt.S ._ ...... 09__9w X_*n~~~~~n, no4...~~~...... 357 303 12.3 20.3 F W17 dll~~~le ......

P.80.. -1 .0- - t 3 t Job.a 47758 77n2 - 1a4000 .I .1pWompbdh01 247

HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA Table A-1Z.Empboymen glatus of male Vetmnam- vetrns and noetrans by age, not seesonally adjusted -M -

F.C. F .C. F .C. F 8C. F C .|. . .1 . . | 1.5;.F...C. F .C.

ToDI7.71vyb...... T.73O 7.004 7,142 7.138 0.030 0.380 402 380 0.5 5. ~730,70 024.847 30...... * 7 5...... -3 ,307 1.07Z1 83 I 0 8.4

S03300no1, ...... 1.34 2,323 2.487 Z 522 2,37 7.4 3144.4*.5

703*l.300443w0. .. 77.88078.02310 .38213.3S315.374110 .900 7.738 7,0371OS 0. m73337087 8,2S.aZ0 8.723 7.835 8.283 17,330~ 7.743 52 10754 0.8 0.0 oloun 5~~~~.34303203. 23 3,555T7 482 5.34 1 320Z 0a.0 5.7 NOTCh2fel003s . baI4.23 he AuFm4.2 3,328 cib4.03S~armt 3.04 o 3.83 20 Y 27s4 0. 3.3mtil 307..meS4877n3.8o7 5!N02ne 73 731327.4321700717mi weh w~mi 7I.270704373ooodao70227038777,72747437870233,3700 777007pul777.7m757 248

HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA Table A,13. Employm n status of Ohecivillbn popubaibn for elevn large5t1t1 'I . V-w

to. i;;I , ;rc ;or ;

Cb~~b 7 ...... ~~~~~~~111 :I' 11 Il82l! 13513-1, 11.0 7t162 [-3 _ ...... 1 6 2^4 1 5 230 1 9 265 [.6 I5d t.7

1_ _ ......

_ ...... 3 s 1 | - .07.7 t8 31: 311 . Cl. -11...... 5.**572 5.*81 7 7276 79 77

E ...... 5,1. 1. 5. s.16 5.2 5.122 . 1..e 5. 7

_...... *s65s61s6 "I 4 "I "I 7 "I I 4 8 .8 _11...... 1:7 5Il 1:1 207 0 1:1117 0 *

_1_ E 1_- ...... 101I2 . .. 7.5 3. . .

_ ~ ...... 5z8129l324 1_w_-77...... ,277771~~..9 7 7 7 1 '9S20 3o73

_ 1.* ...... 936 3 8.5 0.38 S.. 6 87 0

_ 3 *°° *~~~~~~~~~:.1351 1:;'37 ':I 7 I67763 2p33 1"I2 *163 w77 ...... ~.....

0__...... I., ..6 .. I.,3 0§ 5§51 .90s2 1 .--61

_ ...... *s25 Zs39370782t sss33s74 3 .907 I.. .2T S. 8l 4 247174188 5,3 ...... I__d :I 2713L1 6 1 _1 ...... 1.1 6.7. 5.6. I.. 6.0 . .

C8AW_...... 1:12 71 12 1 13 I 1: IIl l S .. 1 12 13 114 4 ]79l6 1S...... 's04 s *0 I* 43 12 S~ | |___|_~~~~~~~~~~~~, . .7 57 5l 6. 'I...... 1.6. 6.

=~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~: 1.0i3 50 3 078 3 36 30"°30467 1.3° 137 3 362 _67 ...... 5.6 ..5.2 7 357.5.1. ..

Mew 1 _ W ...... 809 8,122 6 l* s 09 E l Z 8lS 2 2 C11 .7 11...... 5 15 1'I.0 92642 ..107 8

. i ...... |43*24346*-394547S

C19 ...... , 1 t.9 5.:6 TT . T§ A.

_ ...... |1 5.0131 1 .11,6t 1,1 1 5 2 2 1 5.22, I.- 6 1.23 A_~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~...... ! 5 2795 ?-130-9*t335 . |. 7 1...... ,t. .,6. . T_

Cl - " llW_ 11:11...... l.X 12:09ll.0 .02 8 12.l2l02S11.1 C :w 2w: ^ 30lw_. h:: 8. 63 IIYICd.113 ..... 8.10 ...... 2.6 s26 *

Id...... | Ot95 6 8 9 9 2 ...... 1.7 .9.0 1.2 0:t. 2 . 9.6 . . ,1 7 1 249

UETAILI&HMENT DATA TUALIBNMENT DATA Tl &ImpeyO1. A n nWOM_ I PINla S by bous"

*0. JaR 0.. 9W- :_ i I.,: _T.I. .; 1 ;.. r1.;;F ;;.- r _i - * ! : Ten. 303 .970 $ 99.335 *o.oool 300.000 30O.000 3331.001 01 30.0031 303.900 80.9304 NW" F ...... ,,,. I 0.00 30..1 :,0'3.3 00.300 00.293 I""'0 250.000 I.05 .1O9.305 AX| 030Z} 900i 70AS ,,, I 0291., 7 0 0 003"'I as Wp n ...... ,.,.,..,.i 003.3* 0.928 1,3, - - 3.! . 1,0. joogol 39.330 9.3.01 09.00 ,...... ,.,.1 .1j, 60..:: .9...0:': 3,208. 3.303 30.223, 1s0031,

_o,I ,S,...... ,1701 FD ..o ...... ,...... 13.109 3 10.0 1 19 I., 1 32 -- - 1 0S.3 0 _ ...... ,..., ... ,,. I 3 .03 3s. ..,,...... ,,,...1 I 3 3.0 99 030.ol 000. 0.03 494soo500*s$111,2** 0.32soo:3,00.1 00soo0F5001: 1:4007,00 15.010.9 0.'"0' soo 090 900.0 160.091 32S.90 _ _ _ _ , *37 , ! .i .* 4I1 .. I AS ~~~~~...... 000.0 I,0;09 00I, ,i. i" T n _ ...... J.,.,I*0:4 osaii 00~ , i .'0,00 ---.... ,,,,,,...... 1 !00.: 2 :9'',7 1 :.**. a ': 's :l 1._bZ 290.0. 300.01 000. PO ~~~.....,,,,,..... I . "°I0 3.9 3 00 7 1 30 08 8d I 0.:. 003A 3 7 203( 100 ~ ...... S'I"':11.8 II7.90.1 ll82 3.90 3.90 3.992 3.90 3.79, 3,90 3,025.5. T - _ t ,- ...... 0. 00.0I t ...... ,00.... 70.1 73401.32 M o.8 o_.... O 0. 00o.0 .. 030 , 0.! 7091 .... , ,,, , I 3I.9 0 0,..... 000.37., 009.0 070$ 003' I@' 3951 27 010 ' 'I :o000 * S-W~s ...... 'I A"' 9 0 ., 'Is0 803.5 0.0 0.0.. I"""I I""'1 03 1 2.84 3.300. 3,30. 0..,29 0.005 0.80 ___ ...... ,,,,,13.02,8 902.9 4 I 0.9901 0.S $,I0.905 ~~~~~.... 0 09low.0il 10*.701 4X.1 a~~eS_ D DW ~~...,.....,....,,.....5,800-* 3.00.IS30.01.100. .00I . 0.029S.O38 . 0 $ 3.09 0 ' 1 0. 93 I."'4'1 0l.03. 0.00. 097 994 090 090 *99 090 b _ I Dl ...,,,,,, ..,,,.. 33.10$ 300.0 ,- SS- 4 A'_ ... D:. .... ,,. ..11.11100.0s 4 3.000 7.491 6.190 1.493 3.09 I .00 l__dD ...... ,,,,,, 032.0 900.2 ~~~~.. I .3 9.3. 300 300 3001 I00.0o090.09 00.0 I.01300 309 35 309 13.3220, 990.9o _ _ _ _,,, ...... ,.,,...I 000.3l 3.300,2 IASa I .4 1 I Ioa I ,oo I 1,o 3 'AS t~~~ol I3,040.2 ~~...... ,.,,.,.,..I SO':.o .. .3 0.90 00I0 1 0 039I2 .160.009,3t.3 |.030,9 800. 900 009,. 9.30 2,3 .3 -_..,...... ,,...... 790.0 5.277A.1 0.030AS 5.031 i ''5,009 0 A51500A5 350.09041 133~0.8 1 0,008 3.090 AS31 ASA 2:303 0.3*0 359.0s 8301.o 1.360 2.320 30.000 2.234 2,300 02.30 2.*23 1.000 00 li., 5l.0 30,95 INSSSSAI ,,o ..., ',,...... ,..,.,,, ...... I t:.. .0 20 0. 1 0,990. 3902.0 0,03. 1'2 0'' 001.330 1.830 10.189 10.9 0.929 .8200 10.80 Q-o ,; ..,,,,,,, ...... , 5.0 0,oI'"'0 0.082 2.080 0.089 0.000 0.0 toot ...... , , ,,...... , 0.090o 0.003 0.09,06 0.099 E _ft .,,,,,,...... 2. [email protected]' :O'". A,]7Aa t *3*s *at *3 I.0 01.00I0i 3 0.030 0.030 [email protected] 0.200 3.990. 2.000 _ _ _-_A ...... I0t.050, 0.900 I0.t 3 3 2 8.2 309.0 A - A.... :.-,..... 0X,908.0 0.200.o3.03 ,,... , , ..,. .. 2.,093 3.929 3.900 1.903 0.990 3,993 3s.0 0.092 3.030 2.200 3.200 0.200 3. I0 IASO...... ,...... ^, ...... 3.080$ w3.200 63.0001.695 }A2 6.1243.209l :.713.23 6.7.53.209

0 1 _. . . --...... '..'.''.''.'..'.''.'..'. 0.909,0 0.903, 131.003 j.009, 0.00,0 00.090 30.800 39.990 38.98 30.900 301.93 S1,,,,,,,,...... ,,,,,,,...... 108.0 30.080 to 0 -- 0 t.1 0.920 0.939 5.903 2.99s3 0.90 0.970 9.8293 0.030 30.020 30.039 30.03 0 30.02 D.D_. 250

ESTAULISHMUNT DATA ESTABLISHMENT DATA

Table Avleweklty hou lf plOtd oWOFn'r eblwy*wOsOe at, lt "ultul pyolls by b -s_1

403~~~~~~~~~d - 2~~~~~I;:d. -T~~~~~~ 4 2.0 J... r.b. 1.4. Ont. | ;;. |2.0. J... t*4.

Tot .,. ... , ...... 34.1 34.| 3.4. 3.6 .3 7 . 34.4 34.8 35.0 32) Ib.4h.O . 42. 42.4 42. 43.3 (22) ( (2) 2 ) ...... 3 34.9 31.3 3 .8 (2) () C2) (2) (2) (2)

. . . .7...... 4 0.7 40.8 .6 .3 44U.0 OlMhW...... 3. 3.6 3. .. > TI,2443 3.4 4.0 3.3 3. 3. 3.4 3. 3.4 3.6 3.0

L.,3r,4.,W .3 ...... ::: 30.3 40.5 40.0 40.3 40.0 40.3 40.0 40.4 40.0 0.0

03433gll4343 3...... 00.4 43.0 43., 42.0 43.6 42.3. . 3 42.4 43. 4331 P,30207,03043340J803S 43.3 43.0 42.4 42.4 3.3 42.3 43.4 43. 42.7 42.4 ...... : ...... I 5 4'2.0^1 41.9 12.. .1.6 s .1.6 1. 1 I * s I 23.00303408*8340003034)0'... . 31 140 02 40. 0 43 43.0 40 43.3 U T,;,,2p,,,,,,,,.' ...... , 4. 41.0 43.2 43.2 42.4 4.4 4. 42.6 4 3.2 43.7 7 (2) (2) (3) t433083-030tI33200O32 . 33.3 40.3 33.3 33.4 (2) (2) 333 O~~ltill~lIOWT | ol 3 * *0 | 3 39 T 3 *02;2 1 *0 1 *0 1 *0 rco.q ...... 33.2 40.7 40.0 39.3 39.7 33.o 40.3 40.3 .3 40 I...... I...... 3.0 3.6 3.4 3.3 3 3. 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.

...... 3.0W4.ll4P3.4.4 3. .3 4330. 31.4 40.0 3.6 40.3 40.3 7030333r0327,30t.3 ...... 7 40.0 3.3 3 4.3 43.8 .2 43.0~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~144.2 4.3: 43.3 43.3: 43.0 43.2 43.4 43.4 43,.:I 7O03fl332O43Slll:~l~u70083.003 34.4 37. 7 37. 34. 32) (2)t (2) (2)6 323 (2) Tp __11_o .6.7 37.4..33.8..37.3..37.7..38.0...... 33...... 39..0 34.3 38.3 37.I 34.3 Oo~o232a3 ~ 3 . 43. 42.7 42.3 42.4...... 42.81 43.1 42. 42.2 4.3 42..3. 54.rwalm~~sO.3340.0420473032t07,343243.0 42.3 43.4 43.3 (2) (2) (0) (2) (2) (2 (3) (.) Il-_latO.2t 4...... 3.. - .0 .34.2 37.3 37.1 32) (2) I.) (2)

7.ap.888a~~~~~~~~...... 33.2 33.0 38.7 33.3 33.3 3.3 30.3 33.0 36.4 30.3

...... 38.0 36.4 33.3 38.2 34.4 34.4 38.3 38.2 34.3 34.3

...... 38.4 06.3 26.3 28.7 00.:, 2:.3 33.3 2.3. 04.3 20.4 72fl . 36.6 34.6 34.3 34.7 32) (2) 3...... 2) 30)...., (2) 3)( 8. .. 33.433.4 32.2 33.3323.4 32.432.s 30.4 32.4 32.3

Ot In.3 toepotloo 3.7n3 Inn_0083 maooala3 30ottstlo 3).1_.5.0 In468 6227 3*b48300 _04 0T0 utlllt~~~~~~~~s _ a f~~~~~~~-DI-I 1 . "'' 4tf .t 103 7 nt ..IOan1 0 , W -* pto0. 3t 0 .1 4 t 251

ESTABLISHMENT DATA ESTABLISHMENT DATA

Tab. B.&Aeago howly and We erng of production or noraupeor Warkw 0onprit nfgdbWg payrl by Industy

-_ --_ A _

p.4...... 8.7. J* . t4b...... S.S 2986 2964 4987D 2987 2 984 2906 2987 290§7

T.bl ...... 8. 0..748.. 9 8200.449308.01 3105.238307.S9 b ...... 9.72 8.82 8.53 8.87 303.98 303.27 307.2537 0.45 1.40.2 218. 01 9.2 23 .5 322 0.1I 0 0I3 .013 .03...... 2..2 6 .9 C_ 2...... 22.70 12.53...... 12.3922.40 430.32 *48.4. 447.27 433.26 _q 9 s~~~~~~~~~~~'.709.84 9.83 3.89 390.92 403.34 404.04 400.90

F...... 20:710.29 10. 0 ...... 0 27:34 20:4, 32.03 704.: 429.03 430. 7 0W.026y.09fl~~p~aot.9.90.0....20.27.20.27.*03.54 427.264232 *2.24 F723.2bk 0.32 d~7.60 03.133@ 0.30. 28.36...... 130.69s4 290.07 294.479.1

F ps 2...3...... 12.95 0.009 .93 503. 35321 .00 53.24 311.50 , ...... 20.33 20.65 10.60 10.66 437.00 *53.7 4 444.* 407.70 22.8 23.00 22.36 22.3 343.3 944.203...... 90.80390.39

UkO4O.7..a~k7.,7.030f 0 . 7.30 7.32 7.71 7 .3 127 3. 304.3 321 2

__...... 2. 3 T T.03229272.o0*c39.6~~~~~~~~~-...... : :. s.]X:...... 04 .i io3.6 z.....9.03 1 5i.01347. 3 599s.2366.34 383.510 20 5565.23 2.89 F ooslfaur W *~~~~~~~~~.728.807.23 ~~~~~8.927.22 ~~.838.8i37.22 329.492709 338.033023 330.329.9 330.93244 T___J_. W...... t . .39...... I _- ,I- -_1hPr...... 39...... 5gI1s 4 s 0 3.-86::.2,0 2...... 383 1 3.8 20.12 22.28;9 243.330*11 16.953 d,_ ...... 9.06 *02.2 6 20.81 370.3 33.00 92 r _ 200826.Opso3.22.92_ _ . _ _ 22.20 22.28 22.20 492.40 920.96 323.22 927.28 2A4W -7I,02.76 9.63...... 9.98...... 6.06 6.0 3-9209.88 5207.84 223.23 226.236

W ...... 9.34 9.47 9'.48 9.30 29 8 34.3 62.9 302.99

06W9.4.WW.9.4949.3.28....8.46.8.38..8.73.300.30..308.66 S23.27 320.34 6.90.. . .. 9.27 9.31 8.36 8.40 246.31 269.24 269 '1.32

'S. `-.2I8I9 . 69 8la

TableWC HourlyEarninp Ind.s for production or noaupaley warls' 089petomno sbipgiltunal psprolla by hduoby JWFn.10ox (37.5 ______

......

,S - ~~~.S. 8*7. J544.l 0.. (2). 04.4 08.0 N7.J 504.3 Sn. 8. S(4

.-~ ...... I.....166.6 . 1w1.1.2 171.ss1*.6 10.0 170. 10.170,: 1,11: l:.l I'l .5j _--''' 180 5 1:':: S 2 O 1 0 1 _, (O0) (4) (4) (0 -) ( 2_0386_ _171 w.*2996- ,73.e ,s.~~~~~~.2 23977-.o I 29970 23 IL,7 .3238 3.17.2 17.Iy.18) 29 ,2.1. 6 )4984 24 97 2 93;7- r __,,,,,,,,, 090.888-a968.6- - 272.2 272.2 279.8-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~158 2.3 249. 270. 230. 27O. I.6(70. .932. 0.3 9983 9.4 93.4 347.8 87.47.§ (20 3.4 93.0 33b.3 93.0 94.3 8.3 (32.. I .s . I I " ) 111. .54.1 .5 .16'.I

* Sh ,,, , ,, jbP...... t., ..b. 280.3 282. ,282...... 280.9 ..24.....-.2;( 0...... /

79-018 0 - 88 - 9 252

ESTABLISHMENT DATA ESTABLISHMENT DATA TableB.S. Indseacaf alggregateweekly hoars atproduction a, onanauprleary workers' anprtnate nantagricutlurat payratll by Indastsy

M_ I215 . - -- __

2986 3986 29229238P9638 9638 2 298

...... 9 4.2 59. 5 .2 9.9 5 8.9. 98.S 9 5.8 9 5.2 22 2.2 2 2 .9

...... 3025.. .2 32 .5 32 3.2 326 . 2 3 26.2 323 .2 32 2.8 23 .2 29 5. 3 28.6 M8 .892 ....5 ...... - -I ...... j 9 .6 5 2.21 92. 9 2.6 52. 5 92. 6 3 95. 2 53. 4 23. 6 2 4.5

I 4 3 33 2 52 2 .545 ...... 12 2.. 3 . 9 32 2 .3 20 .8s 2 2 .9 22 4. 9 22 2. 3 22 6 . 39 6. 5 3 02 . 5, 2 ...... 52.2' 8 6.2 8 9.5~ 9 4.2 82 . ,92 3 , 86 2 8 . 9. 9 2.

F5 2 2 - -2. -53 -31o2 6...... 5 ..j.. 2:2.9 8. 88 . 52. 6 8 . 5. 8 8 85 4 8 . a.462.232'528356314 98..92..82..87..89. 55. 85.3" 826 5.: 8.

5 4..4 2.6 2.8 5 9 3 5 9 2.2 59~~ ~ ~ 95~~~.9: 5 5 925 54.-9 .2 92. 6 5 2.6 9. 5 P24 2 2 3 29 2 8 2 9 4 3 2. 2 3 8 2 2 2 2 93 . 2 32 2~ ~~.5: 56 2 8 . 5 9 2 9 9 2 2 . 2 2 2. 2 3 2 2. 2 32. 5 22 2.5 2 22 5 23. 2 ...... 29. 9 83 .8 79 .8 2 5 2 9 . 2 . 5 9 7 8.2 26. 2 2 .6 42p828122235838233.4274235.84.5~99.3 8.5 96.925.5 5.9 56. 817. 87.2 92.9

C - 3 53 .2 93 0 2 22 3 2 .8 1 W4. 53.2 5 4. 2 5 3. 85 7 9 4 8563 2. 5 . 20 399 2 34 2 34 4 2.28 2 2.8~ 2 3 2~ ~ ~ ,26.5 I2 2.6 2 8. 2 9.2 832 72 4 i 25 I6 8 2.2: 8.2. 56232353322.86328328.. 9.22 22..3. 2. 224.2.222.2 229.5. 234.8235.2 25. 225.4 2.5 5 3 6 2 .2 ...... 5 9. 2 52 . 6 521 . 9 59 2 6 3 2 56 8 5 .5 5 .8 5 .2 6 .

22..p~98225.3922k2133...... 225.51 322.6 229. 327.6 32. 7. 256382 2. 3. 2...... 3 .3 2.5. 22 . 3 32 9 . 2 22 8 . 229 .9 23.1 29 5 3 5 2 2 9.92 . 9.22ts3. . j2222 25.92359 26.23293 32.22229!.29..23.8.22. F228325.33545598.3552.185828 255.3 24.5 38.2 22.4235. 2352 24.3 22.7 42.2242. I -..1 . .2 ...2 ..3 3 6 2.8.. 1 42 .2.. 44 .2.. 4 9.5. 3 42 . 2 2 6. 8 1 34 . 9j 34 .2 24. 6. 24 5 . 2

Table84. Indexesat dtttastan: Percentat industries in whichesptaymeat I~mscnaad Sc,. J~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~SP

5.22 a , .6. 5. n i .2 25 42 9n t. 82. 5

22. ses... 38 4..5..7..62.68.28 639 5.6 5.

322. 986...... I . ' 5. 51 5. 42 4. 46 5. 29 5. 22 5.

5252. 3292~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~~~E 2553 . 99551.1 I '~ ~~~~~~~_-66.2P 253

The Consumer Price Index: 1987 Revision 0 U.S. Department oi Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics January 1987

Report 736

Effective with the release of data for January 1987, the In calculating the index, pric changesfor the various items Bureau of Labor Statistics (aLs) began publication of a re- in each sampled urban arem are averaged together according vised Consumer Price Index (ct). Major objectives of this to the weights which represent their importance in the revision were: (1) To update the content andweights of the spending patterns pf the appropriate population group. Data market basket of goods and services priced for the CPt; (2) for the sampled arefs are then combined to form a U.S. to update the statistical sample of urban areas,outlets, and City Average. However, area indexes are not designed to uniclue itens used in calsulainmg the CPI; (3) to improve the measure differences in the level of prices or costs of living statistical methods used for computing a mnber of Cn, com- among cities; they do measure the average change in prices ponents; and(4)to Dimprove operating procedures. This report for each rea from one period to another. provides background information andfurther detail on these changes. Uee of the cPI Since the CPIis a mensure of the price change of a constant Btld description of the cI market baket of goods and aervices over time, a principal use The cpi measures theaverage change in prices over time of the cn isas anindicator of inflation: As an economic infor a fixed mnarketbasket of goods andservices. CPI's are dicator, it is used by the Executive Branch, the Congress, and published for two population groups: (I) A CPt for AR the Federal Reserve Board to determine and evaluate Govern- Urban Conasuners (cPr-u), representing the spending habits ment economic policy. A seconduse of die cpt is to adjust of 80 percent of the population of the United States; and(2) dhereconomic nsues for price change andtranslate contn- a cpt for Urban Wage Earriers andClerical Workers dollar amoumns hnt inflation-free values. Statistics thdt are (ct'-w), representing the spending habits of 32 percent of adjusted-or defld-by the cn include retail sales, hourly the population. The Cn u covers, in addition to wage earners and weekly earnings, and personal comnamption expenditures andclerical workers, professional, marngerial, and technical used no Calculatethie gross natitall product (crNP).All are im- workers, scaat-tenm andself-employed workers, unemployed ptsnt indicators of economic performance. persons, retirees, andothers not in the labor force. The Another major use of the cpQis to escalate income cPI-w covers those conasmer units in which more than one- payments. More than 3 million workers are covered bv col- half of the income is earned from cerical or wage occupa- lective bargaining agreements which provide for increases tions, andat least one of the msembers is ermployed for 37 in wage rates based on increases in the CPI. In addition to weeks or more in suchan occupation. Not covered by ether private secor workers whoae wages or pensions are adjusted index are permoa living in rural arems, members of the according to changes in the CPt, the index affects dheincome armed services, and persons in institutions. of about 60 million pernens through Federal expenditures The CFIis based on a sample of prices of all goods and for social programs: 38 million recipients of Social Security services that people buy for day-to-day living. Price changes benefits, over 3 million retired military and Federal civil ser- are measured by repricing essentially the tansemarket basket vants and their survivora, and about 19 million food stamp of goods and services at regular time intervals. The total cost recipients. Changes in the Cn also affect 24 million children of that market basket during one period is compared with through adjustments to the School Lunch Program. The thetotal aggregate cost i a different period. Prices of most official "poverty threshold" estimate, which is the basisof goods andservices are obtained through personal visits by eligibility in many health and welfare programs of both the theBureau's trained representatives to approximately 21,0C0 Federal Goverrunent and Stateand local govemnments.is retail establishments and 60,0C0 housing units. updated periodically making use of the cn. The cpn's market basket of goods and services is held con- In fiscal year 1986,an increaseot I percent in the cpi st t between revismonsin order to nepat price changes frnm woutld have means a $2.8-billion increase in Federal changes in qiraities purchased. The CPIis a measure of price expenditures for theseprograms. In addition, since 1985the change and not a mensure of the cost of living. For this reason, Cr1-uAD lemts index hasbeen used to adjustthe taxbracits the cm, is nd affected by changes in income taxes, but does of the Federal income tax in order to prevent inflaiiin reflect changes in sales taxes and other itlirect taxes. induced tax rate increases. It was estimated by the Otfi- 254

of Management and Budget that prior to passage of the Tax Price changes over time may differ among items, and these Reform Act of 1986, an adjustment for a I-percent increase differences can affect consumer demand. This is illustrated in the CPRwould reduce potential income tax revenues by by rapidly rising prices for energy items through the 1970's $1.8 billion. and early 1980's. In the Consumer Price Index for All In addition, escalator clause in an increasing number of ren- Urban Consumers (crps-u),energy products (gasoline, motor tal. royalty, alimony, and child support agreementsuse the cpt oil, electricity, natural gas, fuel oil, bottled gas, and coal) to adjust payments to an undetermined number of people. rose 259 percent from December 1972 to December 1983, nearly twice an fast an the average increase for all items. Interpretatoln of the cPI According to data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey. The CPRmeasures price change for the goods and services urban consumer units reported an increase of 167 percent consumed, on average, by the specified population group. for energy expenditures from 1972-73 to 1982-84. This in- These items run the gamut from bread and butter to tele- creasewas subntantially smaller than the change in energy vision sets and compact discs, from prenatal and obstetric prices and implies a reduction in the consumption of energy services to charges for funeral services, from popular paper- items per consumer unit as a result of higher relative prices. backs to college textbooks. This kind of economic adjustment was also seen in related The CPtis expressed as an index number with a specified consumption, such asthe increased demand for smaller and base penod. Currently, for meat items in the index, the base more fuel-efficient automobiles. period is 1967 (1967 = 100). Thus, an index of 150.0 for a Another factor which can influence consumers' consump- given month means that consumer prices in that month tion patterns is changing real income. While an increase in averaged 50 percent higher than in 1967. If the cRi then rises income usually will lead to a rise in total consumption. it from 150.0 to 180.0 in a later month, the prices in the generally will also lead to changes in the proportions spent second month average 80 percent higher than in 1967 and on the various items. 20 percent higher than in the earlier month when the index Social and deosogrupitic changes can also create changes was 150.0-i.e., (180.0-150.0/150.0) x 100. in spending pateeus. For example, in 1972, about two-fifths The constant market basket used in the construction of the of married women with a husband present were in the labor CPIdoes not imply that consumers wil actually purchase the force. By 1983, this had increased to slightly over one-half. same goods and services year after year. Consumers, in fact, At the same time, the labor force participation rate for mar- tend to adjust their shopping habits for a variety of reasons. ried women, with husband present and with a child under 6 Since the cPt is predicated on the purchase of a fixed market years of age, increased from less than a third in 1972 to almost basket of goods and services, in the same proportions, month one-half. Demographic changes of this kind affect expenditure after month, it is called a price index rather than a cost-of- patterns. For example, relative expenditures for such items living index. In addition, because it is expenditure based as day care, nursery school, babysitting, and eating meals out rather than income based, the cpi does not include the have assumed a larger proportion of the family budget. effect of changes in income-related items such as income Other factors, such as technological innovation and pro- taxes or Social Security taxes. Also, it does not reflect non- duct modification, also affect the pattern of consumption over cash items, such as certain benefits received as part of a job, time. For example, in recent years the electronics industry or services supplied by government agencies without pay- has influenced consumer purchases through the introduction ment of a specific fee. of such items as personal computers, video games, and video recorders. Also, over time, products already on the market The consu~mption market basket are modified and improved. The weight of an item in the CPtreflects the importance Finally, a more subtle phenomenon which contnibutes to of that itern in the budget of the consumer unit and is changes in the relative importance of items in the market derived from expenditures on that item as estimated by the basket is the change in consumers' tastes. There are a variety Consumer Expenditure Survey (CEt). This survey provides of ways in which lifestyles and tastes change, such as the data on average expenditures for every category of consup- increasing number of persons who use the facilities oi a tion by all persons in the relevant population-renters, physical fitness organization. These shifts in preferences may homeowners. families with children, couples, and individuals. also change expenditure patterns for complementary items Consumers change their purchasing patterns as a result of such as sports clothing and equipment. changes in a number of factors, including relative prices, Not only do the consumption patterns of individual con- real incorc. dcm )graphic characteristics, and tastes. To en- sumer units change over time, but also the geographic sure that thcCPT reflects price change for a market basket distribution of thepopulation iay change. Between 1970 and of items thit is -elevant for contemporary consumers, it is 1980, the total population of the United States grew II 4 necessary soupdate the market basket periodically. percent, but the population of the South grew 20.53percent and the West 23.9 percent. The South and West now have IorF i.ornuioi osn ihe rrectduresioe inea i. a.rau5enms. see U-eg the Co-s.,ver PMe rndx fee -veielio-, ast Repton732. 51.4 percent of the urban population. this compares o..: i7t) Ottrebee1985, percent for the 1972-73 market basket. 255

Consumer Expenditure Survey (2) housing, (3) apparel and upkeep. (4) transportation, (5) One of the most important elements in the revision of the medical care. (6) entertaiment, and (7) other goods and CPIis the Consuser Expenditure Survey (CES).which is the services. basis for selecting and weighting a new market basket of goods and services to be priced. For the 1987 cPI revision, Relative Importarme an the chsangrng market expenditures from the 1982-84 period are being used. The beaket previous revision, introduced in 1978, used expenditure data The expenditure on each category of consumption in the from 1972-73. base period as a percent of all consumption expenditures is The CESis composed of two separate surveys-an inter- called the redative inportance of the particular category for view survey and a diary survey, both conducted by the the base period. The relative unportance of an item in the Bureau of the Census for Bas. The interview survey is used cPt for a given month is the share of total expenditures that to collect data for expenditures which respondents can would occur for that item if quantities consumed remained remember fairly accurately for periods of approximately 3 consttat and only the prices to consumers changed. Although otonths. The diary survey is designed to obtain expenditure the quataity weights remain fixed in the cPI, the relative im- information for smnall,frequently purchased items which con- portance changes over time, reflecting the effect of relafive sumers tend to forget. Approxinately 5.000 consumer units price changes. are contacted each year for each type of survey. Table I shows the relative importance of major groups in In the interview survey, the respondent is visited in each the CQ for each revision since 1939, along with those of five consecutive quarters. The purpose of the first inter- based on 1982-84 expenditues that have been updated for view is to collect information on the chtaacteristics of the price chbnge and used in the January 1987 revision. Table consumer ueit and to establish inventories of itemnsheld by 2 provides the relative importance of each item in the cpi-u the respondent-properties, vehicles, major durable goods, fronmthe 198284 base period Consumer Expenditure Survey and insurance policies. In subsequent interviews, expenditure and the relative importance from the CQiu for Jlune 1983, data are collected for a full year on all varieties of consumer which are based on 1972-73 expenditure weights and updated expenses. for relative price changes. Some of the more significant The diary survey consists of two consecutive week-long changes in relative iurpoetnce that result from this revision records of purchases. The goal is to record every purchase are discussed below. madeduring the 2-week period by any member of the con- Items whose prices rise ftster than the average become sunmerunit including spouse or children. The diary is used relatively more important. Between 1977 and 1982, motor primarily to capture information on grocery store purchases, fue prices rose faster than moss other prices. As a result gasoine, meals, snacks and beverages, many apparel items, in the Cs for AD Urban Consrners, the reative unportance and other small, routine purchases. Spending out of town of moor fuel, which was 4.2 percent in December 1977. is not included in the diary survey. In those cams where the increased to nearly 6.2 percent in December 1982, even same expenditures appear in both surveys, the data are though the sate quantity and quality of motor fuel figured evaluated to determine which source should be used. in the calculation. The weeks in which diaries are kept are spread throughout Compared with 1972-73 expcnditure data, the 1982-84 data the year. with the sample size being doubled during the ast show a snaller relative importtnce for food and beverages. 6 weeks of the year to obtain better estimates of saesonal Within that major group, however, grocery store bouds iterns purchased during the Christnas season. The diary dropped swbStant31llyin relative imporance, while food away survey, with a 2-week reference period, provides more detail from home maintained its share of total expenditures. This than the interview survey. The diary survey obtains data for increased unportance of restaurant meals may. in pars, be 10,400 survey weeks from 5,200 consumer units, while the the resudt of the increase in two-earer hotseholds and interview survey covers 20,000 survey quarters from 5,000 smaDler family size. The increase in the relative inportance consumer units. for alcoholic beverages reflects improved reporting Each expenditure reported in the two surveys is coded to techniques. one of the 364 entry level items (EU's) which constitute the The relative importance of housing increased to 42.6 per- most detailed level of the cP classification structure. These cent in 1982-84 expenditures. The largest dcange was in EU-s are grouped to form 184 priced item strata. The homeowner costs and resudts from a number of factors. First. stratum is the lowest level for which expenditure weights are the percentage of the population living in their own homes calculated, and thus, the level at which the market basket rose between 1972-73 and 1982-84. Second. the quality of expenditure weights are determined. Allocation of the these homes increased. Houses became larger and con- samples of prices and of outlets is done at the stratum level. tained more rooms and bathroomns. In addition, more houtse, Strata are combined to form 69 expenditure classes were built with central air conditioning. In the revied crt, (EC's)-categories of commodities or services with similar owner use of vacation property is included in the weight lor characteristics. Expenditure classes are joined to form the lodging while out of town. seven major groups of expenditures: (I) Food and beverages, The revised transportation component bus a snik; rldiivc 256

importance than in the 1972-73-based Cpi. The largest came from a composite of the price for covered medical reduction is in the importance of used cars, which results, expenses. The price change for the retained earnings por- at least in patn, from improvements in definitions and in the tion is the combination of the price change for the benefits derivation of the expenditure weight for used cars. and the relative of change in the retained earnings rate. Re- Prior to the 1987 revision, only some sales of used cars tained earnings data are obtained from secondary sources. by crnsumers were subtracted from used car purchases, while For the 1987 revision, the basic method for pricing health most were subtracted from new cars. In the expenditure data insurance remains unchanged, but there are some changes flrom 1982-84,all sales of used carsby consutmers (including in presentation. Instead of keeping the benefits portion of the market value of new car wade-ins) have been subtracted premtums under the health insurance classification, the ex- from used ear purchases to avoid doumle-cumnting of the same penditure weight for eachclass of benefits has been added car. The relative importance of used cars in the index, thus, to the direct out-of-pocket payments. Thus, the relative im- is determined by consumer purchases of used cars from portlane of hospital rooms, for example, represents not business, governsent, and foreign countries, plus any only consumer payments to hospitals for rooms, but also markup by used car dealers on sales of cars purchased from payments for hospital rooms by health insurance carriers consumers. from policies paid for by consumers. As a result, more than The new sample of used carspriced for the cpmalso is con- a quarter of the weight for hospital rooms comes from in- sistent with this change. It represents purchases by consumers surance benefits. No change was made in the pricing pri- from the nonconsumer sectors. The average age of cars in endure. Before 1987, hospital room prices were the basis the sample is somewhat lower than before since most for calcubtng hospital room charges paid by insurance, but businesses dispose of their cars on a 3-year cycle. they were not published in the health insurance portion of For many years, BLShas made "quality adjustments" for the index. Now the ful eonsumer-financed hospital room new car prices. That is to say, price changesresulting from expenditure-whether directly out of pocket or from physical changesto the automobile (e.g. radial tires becom- consumer-paid insurance-is shown as part of the relative ing standard or improved crash resistance of bumpers) have imprtance of hospital rooms, with the insurance-paid por- been removed for index calculation. Beginning with 1987, ton separately identified. similar adjustments are being made for used cars. The unpublished portion of the index for health insurance One parn of the transportation component that has increased now represents only the retained earnings portion of the in importance is new cars.This is, in part, because the value premiums. Although the method of pricing continues as of all used car trade-ins is now subtracted from the weight before, the secondary data on retained earnings rates come for used cars and not new ears.Another reason is the in- from more timely and more accurate sources. creased quality of cars that are purchased today compared AD of the changesin coverage and definition for item in- with a decade ago. New cars are being purchased with more dexes are summarized in table 3. A number of individual features and quality improvements, resulting in an increase indexes with small relative importance, especially in the food in the relative importance for new cars in the revised ct. group, have been combined in the 1987 revision. Combin- The decline in the weight of transportation in the Cmtis ing them permits construction of a more accurate overall largely the result of the decrease in the relative importance index AnMmakes room for indexes for new or expanding pro- foi motor fuel. This change is primarily due to conservation ducts. Some of the indexes which disappeared in the com- efforts generated by the sharp increase in fuel prices in the bining process are stl provided as special calculations. These period between expenditure surveys and to the increased fuel special indexes, however, have much smaller samples and effeciency of vehicles purchased by consumers. are subject to higher sampling variablity than during the The medical care component also has declined in relative 1978-86 period (see table 3). importance, in part because of the growth in employer- provided health insurance over the period 1972-73 to New sample 1982-84. The cPt measures price changes for out-of-pocket The CMis developed from a series of interlocking sarsples. medical expenses. The index does not include the cost of Every month, prices for about 100,000 items and data on medical care paid for by employer-financed health insurance. about 8,300 housing units are collected.' The specific cases Health insurance premiums pauidfor by the consumer (in- to be priced have been selected through probability sam- cluding contributions to employer plans) are in the Cm, but pling to imsurethe most precise cPI possible with these sam- they are priced in an indirect manner and are not published ple sizes. The sampling process has multiple stages. The first as a separate index. The revised index will continue the treat- is a selection of urban areas within which pricing will ment of health insurance that has been used for some years. occur. For the housing survey, sets of blocks are selected The premium provides the insurance carrier with funds for and thes individual housing units within those blocks. For two purposes: (I) To pay benefita for health care and (2) other item strata, Eu's are chosen sorepresent each trlu to administer the policy and provide for any profit. The stratum in each urban area based on the relativc imponrance second element is called retained earnings. In the pre-1987 5l ui u4,wv0ri1uul-b Aclrdn'ilwl ..,Y.,,i1 I 2'1iikl CPm,the price change for the benefits portion of the premium c-w, Ufsr o-C a y- 257

of each Eu within the stratum. The outlets (stores, doctors' areas-39 new areas and 52 retained from the old sample. offices, public utilities, etc.) are selected where residents of This was an increase from 85 areas in the pre-1987 index. the urban area shop, and finally the unique items are selected A comparison of primary sampling units in the old and new for pricing within each outlet. The following discussion pro- samples by population size and region is shown in table 4. vides additional information on each of these sampling Table 4 also shows the population weights in terms of con- phases. sumer units for both the ct-u and cps-w in each of the published areas as a percentage of their respective national Urba, area samples. The new urban area sample is based 1980 totals. If these weights are compared with the weights on the 1980 Census of Population and uses the new Con- shown for 1970, one can ascertain the degree of relative solidated Metropolitan Statistical Area (CMSA)definitions. population change for each area since 1970. For example, the Of the 27 urban areas for which individual cpt's are pub- weight for the CPI-u population in the Norhlseast region lished, 5 (Anchorage, Buffalo-Niagara Falls, Honolulu, declined by about 2.5 points between 1970 and 1980. This Milwaukee, and San Diego) were unchanged in their decline reflects the thsterrate of population growth in the South geographic coverage. Most of the other areas have larger and West in recent years. Even though the definition of the geographic coverage. Only Dallas-Fort Worth became New York area hasbeen expanded since 1970, table 4 shows smaller, since Wise County was removed from its official that the relative population weight of the area has declined. definition. The decision to use sample allocations to produce the most Several sampling areas have been significantly expanded. accurate national CP1possible within the existing budget cot- For example, the New York area now inchudes Danbury and sraints affects the frequency of publishing cpi's for 13 local other pats of Connecticut; Wilmington and Trenton have areas. Beginning with the January 1987 ct, San Francisco been added to the Philadelphia area; Boston now includes is being published on a monthly basis along with the other some pats of New Hanmpshire; the Miami area now includes four largest local areas-New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Fort Lauderdale; the Chicago area has three additional coun- and Philadelphia-while Detroit is being published bimon- ties including Kenosha, Wisconsin; Houston has added thly in even-numbered months. Bimonthly indexes continue Galveston; Los Angeles now includes Riverside-San Bernar- to be published for each of the next 10 largest areas, with dino; and San Francisco now includes San Jose. The com- the Cleveland index changing from even-numbered months plete list of counties for each local area published can be to odd-numbered months. Bimonthly indexes which had been found in table 4. published for the 12 smaller local areas are no longer CMsA'sand the Metropolitan Statistical Areas which are available; they have been replaced with semiannual average not a part of a CMSAwere defined as individual primary indexes. In addition, the index for Northeast Pennsylvania sampling units. All nonmetropolitan counties were grouped (Scranton) has been discontinued. These semiannual average into primary sampling units to allow all urban places with indexes, which are the averages of the 6-month periods from a population greater than 2,500 outside metropolitan areas January through June and July through December, are an opportunity to be selected. The overall primary sam- published with the release of the cpTfor July and January. pling unit design consisted of 278 metropolitan areas and 810 respectively, i.e., in the months of August and February. noninetropolitan urban areas, which cover all the urban The method of calculating the semiannual average index population. Primary sampling units with at least 1.2 million derives from the one used for calculating annual average in- persons were designated "certainty areas." Prices are col- dexes which BaS publishes at the end of each year. Because lected in each of these areas, and each represents itself in monthly and bimonthly indexes are not published in areas the weighting of the estimates to the total CPIpopulation. with semiannual average indexes, the first step is to calculate The noncertainty selections have a population weight that intermediate monthly and bimonthly indexes for use in the represents the population of all cities (including their own annual average computation. For those items priced population) in their stratum-a collection of areas of similar monthly, such as food at home, an intermediate monthly size in the same geographic region. The 29 largest primary calculation is prepared for eachof the 6 months. These six sampling units and 2 unique areas (Anchorage and Honolulu) calculated numbers are summed and then divided by six to were designated certainty areas. obtain the semiannual index. A similar but more complex Prior to the 1987 revision, these largest certainty areas had technique is used for items priced bimonthly in each area. been divided into two size classifications: A-I (over 4 An intermediate index is compiled for each of the 3 months million), and A-2 (1.25 million to 4 million). These two in which items are actually priced during the 6-month period. groups have since been combined to form one classification, The monthly index for each of the other 3 months is inter- A-sized, which is made up of areas of 1.2 million inhabitants polated by calculating a geometric mean of the months adja- or more. cent to the one being estimated. For example, in an area The remaining primary sampling units in all naJor regions priced in even-numbered months, a January interpolation is were assigned to three city-size classes-medium-sizmd estimated by taking the geometric mean between the index metropolitan areas, small-sized metropolitan areas, and calculations for December and February. Interpolations are nonmentropolitanurban areas. The sampling process selected 91 made in a similar manner for March and May. I he three 258

intermediate numbers for February, April, and June, selected for pricing, the sample of entry level items within calculated with collected prices, are summed with the three each stratum also was updated, using the 2 most recent years interpolations and divided by six to obtain the semiannual of Consumer Expenditure Survey data. Although weights at average index for the first 6 months of the calendar year. the item strats level will continue to be held constant Semiannual indexes for areas in which items are priced between major revisions of the cPI, relative shifts of con- only in odd-numbered months are calculated by the same sumption among items within a stratum or new products ap- method except that the data for February, April, and June pearing within the stratumswill he represented in the index. are interpolated by using the geometric mean between the In other words, the entry level item sample will reflect the calculations of their adjacent months. For example, the June chdnea ronurm- amrmaking in tdi variety of products pur- interpolation would be estimated from the calculations made chased among those that make up an item stratum of the for May and July. index. For example, one of the item strun in the cni includes expenditures for both books snd magazines, with separate Outler and item sampks. Outlets in which items for the Ctt ELu's for each of them. If consumption should begin to shift are to be priced are derived from data collected in the Point- away from magazines to books, then the composition of the of-Purchase Survey (pops). Conmner units are inter- ci sample would also shift over the 3-year rotation cycle viewed in each of the areas in which prices are collected. of the outlet sample. The base-period relationship of books Respondents are asked for informnation on purchases of items and magazines combined to the overall market basket will. within specific categories during a prescribed reference however, remain the same. The resetection of the item period. If a purchase has been made, the name and address samples within each fixed-weight category for one-fifth of of the outlet is recorded along with the cost of each transac- the rea sample does not alter the fixed-weight nature of the ion. ass then selects a probability sample from these outlets CPIhecaus the population-expenditure weights will remain for each expenditure category, using the expendiures at each fixed at the item sta level until the next revision. ThbisELI outlet as s measure of size. This ensures an unbiased outlet reseleton will not affect entry level items which have a very sample with representation of all types of establishments; the large relative titportmnce or are tie only ones in the particular system also permits estimation of variances and sampling strata and, therefore, are certain to be priced in all urban error. areas. ne samples of unique items in single-eu sterst have, The outlet sample has, since 1978, bees rotated on a 5- since 1978, been fully updated by the sample roution year cycle, and this rotation process will continue. A POP process. In multiple-Eu strata, the sample rotation process survey is conducted each year in about one-fifth of the has been confined to updating within Eu's. MThnew pro- urban areas included in the CPI;the reaults are then used to cedure places both types of strata on the same basis. select a new, more upto-ae sample of oudets and unique items. This framework also was used to update the area Enatim eat to the ulbr component sample for the 1987 revision. The adoption of owners' equivalent rent to measure In previous CPIrevisions, all new samples of urban areas, changes in the cost of the shelter component of owner- items, and outlets were introduced at one time. The 1987 occupled homes put the housing component of the cPt on revision uses a concept of rolling-in the new area, item, and a flow-of-services conceptual footing, and isolated the con- outlet samples. Thiat i, tde composition of the area amditem sumpton element of owner housing from its investment samples will be gradually updated over a period of 2 years, celment.' The 1987 CPerevision continues the definitional rather than substituting the ful as of new area and outlet 4ud -overge features asocinsad with that change while in- samples at the same tine. The system, which in more effi- corpeesting somnerefinenses. Tbe new index for materials, cient and easier to manage than the approaches suPlIest.Ad egriptnent for home repairs, which combines used in the past, is possible bectuse a continuing Point-of- three more detaild old indexes, includes for pricing only Purchase Survey for a systemnatic updating of outlet samples those types of iteans thatwould be purchased by teants and is now in place, and broader definitions of the characterietica those tht are associated with the cost of shelter. The index of items which define stats were developed. The first stage exchades items purchusd fur c pital improvements. of rolling-in was the initiation of pricing in 20 new areas 11e new sbdker sample has been designed to represent to reflect changes in population distribution. optimally both owners and rentcm. A multistage sampling The new process allows more ormeto tramnfield represent- proeeidre was used tht stratifes te residtis arms of each stives and reduce the problems associated with a rapid primary sampling unit by tenure (percent owner-occupied) expansion and subsequent reduction in staff. More impor- and rent level. Smaller areas were then defined and tant, use of theupdating procedures to introduce new outlet samtpled within each selected are. The bousing units of each samples on a systematic basis reduees the need for duil opera- seleced smnal area were screened for tenure arnd sampled tions during the -imontbperiod when both the old and the at differential rates according to tenure. In heavily owner- revised cPi will be published. occupied areas, for example, the renters were selected Beginning in 19S7, when the outlet samples were updated TWe i f amas' qWivalmoron in uvinlin lKCPI -I for one-fifth of the urban areas and new detailed items were in 1983 dadis ie cl-w is1985. 259

frequently in order to find those rental units which are most the population. Owners' equivalent rent expenditure weights like owner units, because it is fromnthese units that the best however, exclude all utilities. Utility charges paid by owner, estimates can be made for changes in the implicit rent of and paid directly by renters are represested by the appropriate owner-occupied dwellings. The new shelter sample has been utility index. By removing utility costs from contract rent drawn based on the 1980 Census, updated for new construc- before calculating owners' equivalent rent, the effects of tion. Because of its dual purpose-support of both owners' changes in utility rates will not appear in the owners' equivallent rent and rent indexes-the new sample includes equivalent rent index. almost twice as many remers as the old one. The calculation of the revised owners' equivalent rent INCONCLUSION, this revision, as in the past, permits BLS index has also been improved. Before 1987, the owners' to introduce the latest advances in sampling, data collection, equivaules rent index was obtained by simply reweighting processing, and statiatical estimation procedures in addition rented units in the rent sample to represent all the owners to allowing for the updating of the expenditure weights of from the same set of blocks. Beginning in 1987, the rate of the market basket and the updating of the area sample. Once implicit rent charged for each owner unit in a sample of a revision has been completed, however, the BLSstaff must homeowners is estimated by using a netof rents for housing continue to evaluate procedures, to monitor changes in the from the same geographic area and with similar economy which might affect compilation, and to investigate cbaracteristics. alternative methods for all phases of the cmt program. It is The rents used for estimating the owners' equivalent rent only through this constant vigilance that the BLScan con- index are adjusted to remove the rost of utilities paid by tinue to maintain the statistical integrity of the Consumer landlords. The residential rent index measures contract Price Index for its numerous different users. rent-i.e., the rent actually paid. If the contract rent includes Iapqiries concerning die cmtmay be directed to the regional some (or all) utilities, then both tbe expenditure weights and offices of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, listed at the back the rent charges for the CPtproperly include these utilities of this report, or to die Office of Prices and Living Condi- in the proportion that they are included in contract rents in tions, Bureau of Lahor Statistics, Washington, DC 20212.

Tabk 1. Pnm dstribution of the Consumer Price Index mirtkt be" by motor expendiure group, benchmark year

TM, _P taps-60 otms 11448 97W tow lss4i9 Fs9 99... a ...... 322 2.2 250 2152 19 1is1 201 78 ,...... 4 3...... 7 3.5 51 47 41 44 1 31 28

9. 12 94.0 282 2 29 8 218 18.17 ...... xs 44 V 02 4.5 SA 19 to2l .1 4.0 3.2 4 295 394 8. 2 48 gwtF4.8e 41 4.. 4 4 5.2 5 4 * 50 I *'l" . vre s -MP.W 9R)M01 P".d .r2'5.995 15W14114. . 4 8 5 9940nr IIA.M. W_ dli. ow fis OMW f * brir ry pd 4 F 3, NO. b1 .."6*neRp.WtV2-73W80t58d. 14lesa..,inc15.r84,~ 14..w,.4ft9rM.We Re~ .lammPW172780Ueco.-.*.V.n-11147nd591o5.14-v4-99.914. f 1 W _ 'm 260

Tdb 2. Re11t- I e - by Item, for tMAConsumr Prle Inxdx hw All Urbn Consumet. U.S. Clit Avere, unrmered -ed rQLd r-nrn_ tbXT 1 la r. Ceomrr EXesdltue Surey Pled _ .0kes3 19M8 19B2484 Otorenmd) (rcxrsd)

Al rarns 100.000 a00000 Froesand oexab FoodNd ereCe 20.076 17840 18.961 16283 Proox-ed noit 451 Jo, 12853 10.138 Frot juim "ardSoenx 3r911 Crmedend beker7 V'4ss 1 703 1351 ns ... 122 209 Cued end ced V- 438 429 Caroledand ded roe 157 06S Rowrsod - Proossd osgetot ... 440 flew mixe 107 062 Fr- ogsbs 123 U97 C.l ...... 203 237 Oahuproxeneed 791 Fr6 Pefo, sod r_" 123 11I eegslelo 317 Is, 8- r- Vd 1265 921 Oth., foo Q heeie 3 376 2564 358 229 Sbgr. and s.e.e 488 361, Freft cu Irred Sogerend odnfe rwrQ ~~~~~~~141105 binr-s Irh and 2S2 210 Sweei ndoig cnedr 348 261 .pu~mk...... FaMned dh 341 770 bOMi..ay 315 226 Nocnroc ses. I403 Rs7 340 2S6 Crionalad drnks 869 490 Men potry. fr h d egps 4134 3177 CoW.fe 274 sat Vthry. nd 0.. 3946 2992 M.. 3.147 2.219 doonkS 261 156 G-end dtii , 1.713 1 140 Orar prrepax d1 0 .. .. 1 44 050 Cannd andpkgd 445 438 2103 Chuckrcrr4 .... 201 094 Froaanpreard foods 0 rio o Isn RPundd-k 172 062 ok...... 216 'Il PoundSteak 107 098 -rs. conedlaes Solon 0508 122 090 solos and spips 306 275 Oftr bed aV o 667 356 Mnen prepared 910 638 foodS.rndving babytOb "' 335 290 Chops 19,2 5SO Food eweyloon heno 6 107 2,182 Hm 226 143 Lundl I 9SB 21b Dr-oex 2 190 2 639 322 231 Oih meds nd0sneks0 16, 1025 524 441 UnpkOedIrOIrd *nd Unposedi6rms 002 ~ 000 calered.te0r- 778 319 I5X Prs"y ,,,~wm 39 439 Aloicfbr- ragag.s ... f 16 Fneorelide cheoCk 151 I144 Akhoc t, gesF h-m '851 911 Freh ondIroom ee *endl* 426 I00 chokes pafs 127 205 Wine 136 215 Othrmpoty 105 069 DWxd ,pmfrt . . 289 228 Fsr end seaood 417 334 AkdOC b-aGa~ Cwnredfhr nd from lor 120 152 093 Uxproodrams v55 000 ..eafood HOagI 37.789 42 637 265 241 Shdler 21 407 Egs 188 195 Dairyprotd`s 1680 1350 Ranrg dr4505 6 042 Frrlshmilk endwear, 9S2 680 Othr radesg 921 1601 Freshwhole mi6k 692 396 Lodorp eihe 0Wdof l 600 I 801 Oth 1 rexheni, id Lodging ste rsoledw 239 175 260 284 Terinra eroorerma 083 035 728 670 Ffnwr~aooowneonCs 13916r dream 361 374 Owele er e rlen 13 524 10175 394 lx crem end rde Hfosedd i n 393 P00935 103 170 MainQ- and rpirs 527 230 Olrer dairypsodoels Manee ald lep., incoongkbtlleT 104 126 unrocos 286 Fro65and oogxl esf 1959 1 677 MurOnGI nd rape, Freh roesand gotles 1069 1009 -omrodits 240 FrnshfIros 516 512 Ma eroiassuples. en- ApOph 099 096 qoipmermfor roric Roanos 072 088 repairs 49 051 Oraongasrindding Dafermiraraoono anod L~ngerines 151 001 -ammodnen N A ns Orhexresh Iros 243 267 Fed enddhaG 10440$i~ 0432 Freonoegvbles 553 497 FVel 6 201 5 br 122 03 Foes and oMenhes.hOr s"I 117 068 fu coemodfrxs- I 371 Tomaxtoes 065 076 Fvdd 1rt65 Orhenfresih neefbes 248 265 OCh= -Iohdd fodo FreoosaRdT-0 roits end COmmO I 19 .46 0891 66 Unrpted o-m,' j o9

See 1onoes or enddof fIA 261

TM* 2. Relatie Ifp I by It fomthle Csumer Pdog bde for Al Urbtn ConusM. U.S. City Aerap. rmtd mid red. rareng MO 19U244 Conmr Expeittun &ae Pffod-Cnlled

J- 83 I 198244 Jun1843 - he-0

App"o .4a upk.W 5158 60524 f. (rme5faei 4 870 4617 App"~ con 4 368 5581 2 945 0 8 v00.. .. .W... OM.uctft .d{ 2190 1 672 3 700 5 062 049lpnd o 419 1614 2192 3331 ,25 0400 10 .. ... 1 300 1.506 2.181 1102 397 .13 T - r 10800 -8 384 cN ..l ...... \.... ,394 255 314 '008 000 201 315 S-,4q110~ Ng"oc 111 W - ,.4000 ,11 408 .501 010108 85n118'fr E02 257 273 059 409 u0 8ebo ' 40 rn Uw-ds 118 139 015 41448140914088d-Iru ..... 017 293 7950 7 835 280 311 41974 WID_ ...... 578 436 E e-pp.ard' . 014 .002 000 1392 1581 2 642 f lide-t . ..., 1302 1352 1291 2 .'69 421 H41frlr11 1 ng8 e trzt 428 103 2:11 R4 .s 00 1 -8 - 228 260 qxr dp- ..-.. . 330 eFuHffdhrnIlftlnars 4000 ...... ,0 ,,1 Drs .. .- 218 0,257 0 220 1088 278 396 Oudlcomhql-p-. eit pp. NA t32 1 183 1 647 107 106 Teb*;onl~l GmUp.i .... tibZ '..d' ' '. 004 034 645 9E5 004887Tr1 _1g 270 80nnq444l0 :173 T~hrweooo fo~ s 284 357 .heseT, ua s _. b 265 365 NA 250 884 OL9 391 35B 119 2J3 534 349 Rtrifem -. h- 091 711 01119r1406114110188118 109 129 026 022 In6ls'Orporn .rz 'a~ 074 133 er400 601 573 PWY.. .., NA 147 NA Omo. 4 NA 102 NA 233 Ne5008 a~ apcœb NA 165 0 1.8W...... Cfb 01---81 .. f008118. ffna - 88P.. 8l 1884 UnpcaN 140411011 0 08 te-0 8q 8 1 ww 667 916 C.hef- u r . 0New9. . 840811...... 233 270 0,08 8408111 177 167 202 197 T-pd-.011008081118 258 453 Fbir and wif kd AWd.01111010 40000008 4e 11 8800 790 040 164 297 11074h 01010111 4444141'~ anc 525 283 .dX Mf hem...... 327 260 0110108088118'.. 265 Tffthnu.01001 4141110610181118 ffff4 f 4. 75: 0Ehd704414108----0-8- 21 631 1096 201 262 5.814n48408 00881th,0.ak 20 096 17303 fXM kf&.hi-f .. New, 11881V - 0 4 0 06 9 4n 3891 5497 W4101189.mu5ew 4ca0 8 3 48 4439 70Fcfe41 10 1, he.fiq9 4110111 Ppfl-scelloa p NA 222 427 1053 1'd Fs~ fd f'ff.h NA 976 NA 193 NA 0112 109 109 4 108 1271 6876 1253 eP- plance piiae 3729 AOfl 04pr18048L 377 4000 L-.&Y W.~P 836 433 6140 4 80'3

1115418.81110 498 407 Tlro co1prod1 1 708 1153M 510 O ln0011 8810111Ws o 1, beI.o- h1c80 247 543 HxsekPrn sec 414 2209 1E84 ISO Fwalw 204 261 376 394 332 E27 530 430 300 458 394 Appkga W7Vrudul e 362 184 NA 022 C4 1101011811041,010 4251 NA 054 717 755 383 065 124 102 034

01010d 0 ea- 0el ubl 0 262

Ta. 2. R1 IltpwttW by ltk, fe Irt.eCeem Ptfut haI teo7AUs t Cewune, U.S. Cty Awrge, ueoAeted end ne. reprdent thue 1fl244 Conrisaw Expee - PeAI_-Cented

J-ct 83 1I t.44 Jaa 83 1 -e284 (oeaeet (_Innod(

T ,eeottsot- t,ssd Atoneobilepadstend Tos.hob . ndotheT 819 I100 438 420 T~ytsetp¢enrmtottetho*_. ng mv Os_ pensand qpepno 177 391 547 481 Octet penat baspttsa Ptto ea supphtes s ipt...... 3.534 3,304 end oQnPm .nt 208 I072 724 FPt soppbeend eetse 320 Aotnobte rIh ettre ue S39 912 Urpr-od tens' OAbie bnata tatoecs 030 785 749 Eottentrenatrscanoes 734 Utpemedewes' 055 163 Catu mmeesbhipand S.' 547 722 066 NA Im Otttttomoaeteogstotoen Feeslot pmutspentSpoCtis NA n120 Isening and Adm..son .. . 296 nopetdio foe.s 387 315 Fees1o eto5011ot rnarooso"o NA Otho. toe Othat entelttentent gttomes NA 619 retsaedtents' NA 329 Unpocedtanto' 692 046 024 Ottr goodsand ns 5 059 ,393 atnetetatem 535 ptdo~stsFdderso~ lls Onto,trSetOtd ttonatao 75b prtoodtcnte 1 428 O55r M-rfctyInmp~r -e 074 149 805 OttteoypbIs tlranspataton 666 349 Toletogods end penst UntprLd 3ertse 037 4061 sate eptaroeso 064 02 Medcdlsate 6071 ol796 Cottatos, bathand sad MedoLdnate ot-imodt s 940 tpretsatons.'tanrota and Ptosscpaenn'oos 477 583 ayetnakt ,emtse-ntrs r6b '20 NpnpoostpsWodtog and 0shertoad goodsand ena5 ~18/ menuS supd-es NA 363 Fewstwaowe ptatoes IntetKd endtospiretoY itudow hbaend oovt4erCrr e dogS 308 232 doetd ptod'ods s59 Nonpaeosnptonmedal Personalnote satntes ,00r '4 eqvpante nd e ppess 112 131 *Onoty pubr setnes oar Medrallsatre arsteos 5071 3 850 tot tatnialo 6Ss Protasoonal modasl setnoes 2 319 2 546 Patentlsand tothbertDe 1173 1 313 stropsetnoes lor maelS 319 Dentil stres 847 767 Urrprond tents' not Eye Psre NM 320 Pnrspotaland adosatronat Satoroasby OMtr edrdt oepetoes T76 ptatastnsnals NA 147 SbOtoIDt ntr end sttp~lnt 224 120 Uspt-od ttes' s4a 00X Caogeo toatbookoa 1183 linaptat ann rleatedtYsornes NA 1170 1690scthod tostbooeo I"03 Hcsip tdoom 227 467 Otthod eonlis' 030 Othatrapatrent hosqrtl satose NA 429 023 010 NA 279 Porsnat endedocatrosat urtlatod 'tents' 002 003 54 '556 2 263 125 OTteottnFhd thrt soeo tees 220 2930 @KNH.Wh .m8K ...... 252 000 Coangetattoo 802 6 4 217 0380 Elersehnatyand hrgtt Ehtonaoeo~Newsptdewers' ston ddas 2483 2200 Sottodtattoo 212 DoP.d .s .. 719 660 Childdlncate and 369 323 NA Tostrchnaand ottttration'0 NA (In'54 Nespepots. ck 348 346 Usntood ttts'm 206 or? speaingmatna p 665 530 Petesatd esepnhres 322 Spanyenhoes Onidln0 Logo sarom toes NA 910 Iycdles A96 239 Ftrrtoatespetos NA OthIKepte goOdS NA 291 NA '042 Unpnced oin.s' .015 000 Unpohd tenms' 066

sent t pWnhed by te3 buY sY espan d antter rodeo pad dtely bynOerooterto h -eatsateptooders ''onto rr '1.1' ,Not sAinte Sal ott 1987rotar Pbb t I begene anadi. pdothodolstsnotnnatdot-re soc heatlrrnna-ttor'rrlntrtrrrrr Est ec e ewthInn roioon rnJsnvry 1987l healfth-tourrn t5ndtted o as a nrrentmadoat sate enpand-nte ttr panoWnatpt-n.-m p.ymen.Maeon s rewtandby 0 'soTl-0 n I om af podto ando.andrng e.panesThe pattonnat th pOnrm ash s ertho. N A -N. avalde 263

Table 3. TIht and delldtlan c _amInt the Ctntut er Price Indf ,baj wihd JaNy 1987 data New tub WfIdn C New tite Definltan change ll - l - _ r Fund atd be r Other maintenance ad Adds hucdstarfce fuir covering Fresh uthr breas, bis- Combines -Other breads- and repair comnodities and landscaping items oar pnevi cuius,rolls, and "Fresh biscuits, lls, tand I(Ol tttle-Miscela- ously priced. muffins " neus supplies and equipment) LCstkrs. rnsh calkes. Cambires "Fresh cakes awl cup- anlcupcakes' cakes" and "Crakes" Other household fuel Adds rd. careal. awdpeat w- comnoodities previously priced. Other bakeryprductst Cfbds "Fdiuh sunedec rieca tOld title-Same) .haist"inHuamsl and damna," 'FtseF and vtW- id baly -ax awedbufh pi, Other video equipment Consistsof video canara, am. ad tmuwims." and "Craders necitdeirs. players. assettes. a)dbhad ad oaclusepoondu." disks, and related equipment Hair" Cuttbines "Hatn other than canned" Major household ppli- Consistsof iodex seoes titles: ad 'Canned hkem" "Refrigertor and home freezer,;" "Laundry equipmrem" and Orberpork. including Combines "Sausage" and "Other "Strves, ovens, dishwashers sausage' pork." and air condirroreri" Otherdairy products, an- Combines "Butter" and Other dairy Sroves, ares, dish- Combines prts of "Stases, dih- cluding burter' products"' washers, ad air can- washers, va-cum. and sawing (aages. including am- Adds tangennes. | ilitoncrs machines" and "Ofice ma- getnues chines, sal) electric appliaes, (Old litle-Oranges) and air condilinuers," Other fresb fruits Eshoides tangerines tInforlation processing Consists of home compurcrs, rle- (Old title-Same) Wequipmnt phones. and other electronic and office equipment FIorujuices and frozen Combines "Fozen fruit ad fruit tuo nonbusiness fmil. juices" and "Fruit juices other than frozen." Other houefumishings Coasisrs of indem sees litles Ott. pf..cescwd segeta- Combines "Cut corn and canned (I) "Floor a;d wrdow coser- bcmasencept lima" and "Other ings, infats', laundry, cleaning. canned and dried vegabls." and ouldonr eqaipmnenl" (2) "Clocks, lamps, and decor Sweets, including Combines "Candy ad chewing items:" (3) "Tablewae, serviag carly' gum" and "Oher sweets" preces, and noelectric kitchen- Carsunated drinks' Combines "Cola drinks, excluding wae':" (4) "Lawn equtip ntl, diet cab" d "Carbonated power tools, and other hard- drinks, including did cola" war;" and (5) "Sewing, floor cleaning, and small kitchen and Cnmbines "Roasted coffee" amd portable heating appliances" "FRete dried and insmat caffee " Seasnnings. coudimentrs. Combies "Seasonings,olives, Sewmtg, floor cleaning. Cambines parts of "Sriies, dish sauces. and sptces' pickles relish" ad "Other condi- and small litchen and washers, s umss and sewing mew ".. portable heaing appli. machines and "Office ma- Mtscellaneuas prepared Combines "Miscellaeous prepared chines small electric appliances fouds. including baby foods" and "Other canad ad and air conditioners.- packaged prepared foods " Lawn equipmen, power Adds hand tools tools, and other hard- lIstilled spirits (at Combimes "Whiskey (at home)" and "Othr alcoholic heverages(at (Old hame)." Utle-Sam) Laundry and cmaning Combines "Snaps amd detergents" prnducts including ad "Other laundry ad cleaning Lntdging while tul of Adds the rental equivalnce value sop products" town of owner'used vacaion property Household paper prod- Comrbies "Cleasing and toilet tis- (Old tale-Sane) ucts and stationery sue, paper towels, and napkins" MateriaL,. spplris. and Combines "Paint ad wallpaper, supplarsi and "Stationcry, stationery sup, equipmnt for hrume supplies, tools, and equipment," plis. and gift-rap." repars "Lumber, awnings, glass, ad Other household, lawn, Combines "Miscellaeons housc- masonry," and "Plumbing, eklc- and garden supplies' hold pmducto" and "Laws ail trical, hearing, ad cooling sup- garden supplies." plies - Eucludet capital improe- menis and major repau irrms Ivoicall, eravided hy landlords. ro I "'tw .a mdIt aid . 264

TIable 3. Conlnuted-Ie mnd definition dunges In the Consumer Price Inde", beginning ith Jmarwy 19°7 data Nw seres tite | Definition clange | Nw seris title I Definision chasge

hrdcning and other Combine "Moving, storage. Physicias' services Adds benefits paid bycisnitier hnschirld sorvices freight, houshehld laundry and (Old title-Sumn) purchased insurance shy cleaning services" with Denal services Adds benefils paid by consumer "Gardening and lawn care sees (Old title-Saroci purchuned insurncc. ices," which ws p iously o Eye caie published. Includes all consumeriiai'o' lrid-sr plant andI-eh peckel espensesfor c've cte crwitiiiirlziltiesanld serlencli well as benelils paid by co- 'a l inai, elderly Net puhliuhed initially, will be puh- s5mer-perchased insurance and ciinvalcscenis in fished when saple is adqeaite. bhehom Sersices by icher mcdi- Includes sesicc's renderedby thet cal professionals apims, narses, and other pacti- Appard tioners including both out-i- Men' suils. slint coals. Cnmhines "e'sutspoeteo..ts, pocket expeniri and benefits coa.s, and jackeis' and jackets" and "Men's coa, paid by cnssniec purebahed s und jackets. suorsce. Adds women's acce n Hospital and nelated Adds previn-sly unpnccd out- vighiwear, hosiery, .Mrvces patient hospital -ervice. and acces.iries (Old title-Hospital (Old tic-Women's and other medical undonnear, nighlwee. servi~cs) rnd hosieryl Hospital mom Adds benefits paid by consmer- Sewig matenas', n Cowbine "Sewing matenialsand (Old lille-Samel purchased insurance lions. and luggage notions wth pan of "Jewely Oflcr inpatient services Consistsof other hospital and inpa- and luggage tient services including nultisng Watches 'n ly was part at Jew y and and concalescentiimc service. luggage. paid out1i piket as well aS Jewelvy Fonrly ws pac of "Jecry and benefits paid by con.s..iir luggages" sEcludewtees. purchasedinsurance. Transportation Ounpatientservices Consists of emergency rivnt serv- New cars Trn tio. expendioorelnot duced ices, ahoratry lees, and a-rays. lOld title -Sanl by muckt value ofvehiclc trded including beth ni-of-fiket ex- in l pensesand benefits paid by ciin Tronsaction enpenditure not nduced sumer purchasedinsurance. by mrket. whicvolsebice traded Health insurance (un- Portion of premium paid ht con- in. publishedl snmer n0t paid out in benefits. New tiviteycles Trosation espenditure not reduced (Old title-Samel by martinilvalue f sehicle tended Entertaimentt Spn sehicles, including Used car Purchaseof used cars frmomthe 1 Combines Spon vehicles" and bicycles (Old lill-Sam-) business winor Elcludns valu "Bicycles." of used carssold ortraded by Other sporting goodi Combines "Indiwe ad warn weather spon equipment" and ,\iriiiiilnegistration, Combises "'Stat registraiaon," "Oher sporting goody and liwc.nsing and inspee- 'Aiit~nnbile irspectioni." "Local equipment" as well as equipment tlio best registration" lanpublished), and for water sprts. -Dsd cs' licnsde Club memberships Formerly part f "Fees Ir pasici- itiher auIn~obwthdrlated Adds nrsenas of vehiclc quipment pant spots." lees Feesfor participant Portion ot "Fees for participant (Old title-Same) sports, excluding club sports" exclusise of club mem- Other interity pohlie CombinecsItetctty''us fares" and memberships beeshipdues and fees. ironspuflalionl "ofinteity train faces" Feer for lessonsor in- Formerly pan of "Other enterin- niacilypublic iro Combines "Itotacty mass,transit" structions ment serices." and "Taxi fre. Other enterainment Includes film processing, phsnogra- Medical rare services pher Ices. veterinarin services. Prescniptio dmugs Adds buseftswpaod by conewdyr- purchasedinsurance. (Old title-Same) pet srvices, and rental of mi- l()ld title -Sme) cellancus entertinment equip- Nonprescoiploin drugs Encludes eyeglass ment. and nadical supplies I(ld le-Sanre

seI-Giw anae ufsti 265

Tuttk 3. C Thsed-Ttdewed t che s Itt the Cotttet Pete I-de, IK _nnWish Jt uy 1987dts NMw tr tide Dd|m ehu | New Iekt tdtIe Defidite het

tr ed, Ittt Igs] faes Cottsists d the legol feespssuen Toso od ttwhing of IPersonal penss" ptutcs RAtting sod -scounting Consists of te stfe deposithWn (Old tsle-Tobsoco etpewtes rental andbank scteticechge prouces) portion of Persoali expe-nos Otler toilet goods and Coobinws -Products for the har, plus ft foe ccoutuing -tki es smoll petonat cae: htttpices, tutd tlwgs:"Dental m ttly prticed Wptaee5s.itcluding muilshaing peoducts; snd Ftoest excsese Cotssttl of the ftteatl scte haertd destalpod- Othertodet goods atd smell potiotoof Personal eopense,' t.M persteal tpplitusces." plus charges for cemetery tots Child dtycaneinursery Not published initially. .(ill ;K v-olts Me previ usdypmerd. school hepublished when smnple is

Technical andother tu- Not published isitilly. will sition be published when siunpleis

t tHit l dsta -9bloe ck toJanuary 1678. 'HiwesriCd ata stiablehk to Jsoy 1967 1 Hiria datu -Lbk bsck to J--,y 1984.'

-NOTE TO TABLB 1--

Tke futlUot hle Mats sree duttsed, buts reusd- m -orst Idtes .0he ete A stbred. .n111sol he *-Ldbhe fee the foitg itete,: ID0 - tnee-dd coffee Cod hatm T.i fae RPw bisuis. tolls. and Seasniup. oli-s pichi.. Cols nbakseacalidg dietcut Anuele drip odaht Odes cwhod dritkrW Tesmude ad e-d.u-e ndist wst F.& O ta nd Cupcakes Oller conWn-m PON. Ikp, suu ds Ce w -d diunsics Cmakin, Miseeous ped fow - Ho1me,. dsiboe drtho. bio- F-& ansd eand ad c nhe odbhy foods Lheersws glass*tvu ticaa. sd peanPou OGe p-ed foods Sonry _oot ewia Fifth swed lls ifee cake. Whiskey no b Puthimtg electl, beaus, Pas snd sym n cu"n" d doo Oth.e s ok herene at C-ling stpplis 0d dtg PI -d n', d bt hoe oosstneet Supptsawoo. o, gh asndeed _ -_dlm pi.. 1tot Hsehld lan. Oher pnveey d pions ad espsy ad nne, CjlD es dhpe. Hm ot- dm .od rineg Meesat StoIa. dishahus. twa. Eyeglsses Soep. -d dedonu MA -Wse feofOthe (esedosl) Od-Glekfpan Pon, OGIe Landr dsm oing oleeeWn-, - electric -noea _ow _d - e _ hoW_ nd osedical Care Bolga, hi-nnst.l Ceanssg sodtod ensue. ps- *b~c~senousll d pol MA per toeh. sod fk- rs d - suppiea S wbick. L.b dW set C-nry. y suphu baa. e. fa.. b StYoISh d gift wep htld 7y. md diyddmek - ws VpW Od ndi Oka Mkn's wa apon mat aid BuSyft-*-p Gir' ;sw a'i Othh apmng gos sod Mn's C aimd j hd esee-ih_ CGte-d -d e- Boys'Cnewh. pldu. san, 5.ag - d wae ost sodshving pn Rev shirm Dm'. lib (Odu aio goodsnd - Awie Q. Pd do C - can Spol,,,ee ow. andjekeu Iy e_ as Citm Os. -af Gnto' cow, pckeu. dnus. - urn e,,w Otb, lwhar -.Ct sod and smb - -_ in 0-. km wo OGhe feO. as. Iad _ Ge wp sodsptewsw ldy ntes. andpo- Sume -i repnaso teDhct foreue ht_ pY. R .. od(I -p 266

Table 4. Con ee Pll. Inde 1a AM"s ad rgan., bY Ia abase..,pubculOan bChbdula, and 1980 nds1970 populatlin .eight. [= "zT-: M o~:def

M7 2$MI2*1 829671 9621875 27459 _ d l 72_n...... 1M.047 7247 7:A57 76.743 77822 0Yoll0shaM_ ,:-s~ Nw Y~~~~~~~~n..2 __"~~~~~~~~. ua...... I01a4r 9252 .296 7009 7087 1 eK, Yk_ O.- FlI, ,O.W. F0

on. E~ 19,. r, 9'0d82, b. W1 -~O P~l.~Fss .- 78SaL th_*n F.iai nki.4 Nl.ha H- OM

RF o b=Trn w . .eW ...... 2150 2A2M 3r,23 Eh al0. 0. _M.. _m60.

En. Cn. w. , M- Ssm

Ced

Eww _l k ...... a-"' 1 21071 1 N In7 1653 IW j797.E-I, WS.l (lsl. F.M (9W.FV-h W5 (- _829~50 F IF7)

PF ... W . ....W...... I721 7327 I 03 1510 Aft7," B- Fp_,W W

SsFW , ...... ES53 E.. N595 1727

N.# r*SE.E4d 0Ab 12 _n...... 3579 7729 4373 ZnS _ _o d75 rOrb 50SOD...... a-3373AN 380 . .f . -5 d tsr .2 751 ...... Ifto 2as 95m9 O." _"W...... 24802 ts 795 a2&m laIqp597 ..d d. e na...... samR 14.so 5E10 Cmg G j-M C., ...... -- ...... 48031 4.M9 C050. Pe.r*. Knr. KM. Lee_led.W

L8. FDS .MW.t - ...... kle2t-9~1 0oS9 Cue. L .m' .010,,_ 1 12801 2Y17 2497 2J33 S.L EM S 9,- ...... 5."7wa7 I~ 7.51 I i 7 I.S707 a s~, ~ Mar905-9> Ck J50, Lid-M-9 l

Ca.Ak-L-h. .. . I 478 1675 1.297 Cv, G-,,,n 19.. EM 1 MF. 7am

9 F.sp l __ ...... 7.155 ,Ms 1.141

a, C- 10 17s lo i r ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~ ...... 787 as E4-. On.. W"Ma.w

h2. CM

Sa-Clf. C.v82Mm r 7. 474. WeF_.Fu

K.",_, 0m 757 j M

Cl_ 99 d75000 ~ha 7b3020 ...... fto1 __] 3.1r9 i 3 3i912 *720 h O SO7M M3 S0M 5521 b C al r _d 75-0...... hfi~ Uff, - - .131 '^ II SII£/C:..i!. z1a sa m 267

Table 4. Contlnun-Cosume Ple Index ampl ax and rgc, bysl C . pubaton whbdul., and 1980 and 1970 population weights

_I_Wa _ _ _ I _J -

_tM-.0. .t f 1 25 z7774 t. 7 d. 12t V ...... 2e -IbSa.4 ...... I. .7 I n01 I I027772.6, I 1407fC- a- . elny I X 00 I l45 I 7 s ,I

CW o.1 Fd. W.,V Ft G-g kkgi Fft tgFP W lSg .A ~nC.7. F~ C,17.FM o~ C,, M_ c.Fw P. C

'OS' D=,n...... P.. .. I 555 I ..V

F. *_. T- PS I Ns

B8-1. O. B7- 1127

1297 III:. H- sF.~Cn. G. - Li": l5g CWM lI. .- 82Alm 4. . ..V.,., C.-.9 D.... 414..F.,. F.. 197. 1.111 I'M 2t, Fonswt. G h,,,LPnM. SpM,, WM, 122

A.lh II = ..% . 12~...... 1g141 7M- 9:72 0P5A 75.0nw... ,89n 77000754 _ d 2.5W. . t147 M'573 1-

41M5 1955 11-1 19Is7 1.110 1354 -1

SOa,nTA F470.F= 1427.980509S.5F' IC DV S.o g 5s. P.a ...... I W Scr4n40 s 0540, 0 7NiS F . 54 M 7. 4 2-1Z 70oVm5"_ c. 727.0-C mm... ,,,. ... S7000. na ...... 2 ...... 115D .1 ". P- 5-V--* M7, .03

009 0, -. WrV. Y~ NS8 5wSY Smoogo53 Am..Sm .51401.a Am D ...... - W9 An-. B.72r,07 D-,. 0. A0n0 S--- W7 22Po SM.000. d 2. =1.Q0W m4 .2 2 kS . V-" 1915 0098 W b- 1w f ,I... 5A.. 3 OD ...... 009 3 M2 1- 07, .70

AnI _s0.14,5:d75o 150W 0140 W241.2 Z J0.7,4 W...... M7 I ss 1..,'5 Wc7.401 705D27 '.9

52 I2 SZmf, 45 ZZ kgnmn0 750 _ Od 25 50 .,4sZ 1.5

C1n5 450.0W4 M2_

70bS I 79515 I I7577 P0 700 W7"09 09

An -.. 2059...... npsoIo ... 7 7 _37 0dsln.,.7roa 7_7! 64*0.5*1557 ,7 s ;Om7-'m P... 7,M". 8*.so .00I I ."- I g8025 I 7598159-m .b .. M I71u.74 . * 0 (F&. .4 4 4.lb- .oa D. ) 1bueS ~asrm- gC D ..- -Me.OWC 1 25 ~. -- 75.0WY2J5 ° O -,t1, -s +-# 268

Senator PROXMIRE. Thank you, Madam Commissioner. Madam Commissioner, the most striking thing it seems to me about our economy over the last year or so is that it has been growing so slowly. Last year the growth in the economy was only 2.5 percent, and when you consider the enormous stimulative action taken by the Congress in a most irresponsible fiscal policy in history, and year after year after year of huge deficits, and then a policy in the last more than year of the Federal Reserve Board pumping money into the economy at the most rapid rate relative to the gross national product ever, in spite of that the economy grew last year by 2.5 percent and in the last quarter by only 1.3 percent. What I can't understand is how that slow rate of growth and with an increase in the labor force of 2 percent and with a productivity growth of 0.6 percent why there is any improvement at all in unemployment. It isn't much; as a matter of fact, in the last 3 months it has been exactly the same. It didn't improve. Is that right? Mrs. NORWOOD. For the last 3 months the unemployment rate has-- Senator PROXMIRE. It's been flat. Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. Senator PROXMIRE. But if this slow rate of growth continues, in view of the growth of the labor force that we can expect, isn't it likely that unemployment should increase in coming months if that continues, if the growth rate continues at the present level? Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, first, Mr. Chairman, the forecasts that I have seen, and I try to cover the waterfront of them, all seem to be forecasting an increase of somewhere around 3 or 3.5 percent for this coming year. A lot depends, however, on what happens to our foreign trade account, and that in turns depends in large part on what happens to the economies of Japan and of Germany. So I think we have those uncertainties out there. What we are seeing is a restructuring, a real restructuring of industry which, it seems to me, is making us somewhat leaner in the goods producing area. Senator PROXMIRE. Somewhat what? Mrs. NORWOOD. Leaner and somewhat more efficient. We are seeing an increase in hours rather than an increase in employment. Senator PROXMIRE. Well, do we have evidence of a leaner and more efficient economy when the productivity is up by a pathetic six-tenths of 1 percent? On the basis of our historic experience that's a very feeble rate of increase, is it not? Mrs. NORWOOD. Our overall productivity rate is much slower than I think any of us would like it to be, but our manufacturing productivity is doing quite well. Senator PROXMIRE. Manufacturing I would agree, but manufacturing does not account for most of our economy. It's only, what, about a third? Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, that's true, but the point is that we are seeing growth in services and some small reductions in manufacturing employment. We are not seeing growth in manufacturing, and I think that that is because of the restructuring which is resulting in increased productivity because output is holding up. 269 Senator PROXMIRE. Now I would like to refer to your news release that you gave us this morning, the Employment Situation for February of 1987. Under percent of labor force unemployment rates, and taking it by ethnic identification, white employment is down two-tenths of a percent, black is unchanged, and Hispanic is down a full 1 percent. Now in view of those drops, why is it that there is no change in the overall rate? I mean that includes every- body and the categories are only white, black, and Hispanic. Over- all they indicate a fall here, and yet you tell us that there is no change. How do you account for that? Mrs. NORWOOD. That sometimes happens with composition of the various groups. We had, for example, very small changes in each of these groups. Senator PROXMIRE. Well, white is two-tenths of a percent. That's a significant change, isn't it? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. It's statistically significant but, as we've discussed many times, we need to look at this over a period of some time. Mr. Plewes tells me that there has been some rounding involved in some of these numbers. I think the important thing is that Jan- uary is a month with very, very strong seasonals. February is a month when there is very little seasonality. February data seem to have supported the stability in the unemployment situation that we had in January, and I think that is an important thing. Senator PROXMIRE. Let me ask you this. I think a lot of us were shocked and surprised to see that the Japanese are moaning and groaning about an increased unemployment at 3 percent; they're shocked. They say under these circumstances they have to take some kind of drastic action. How can it be that the Japanese have an unemployment rate that has been consistently below 3 percent, often well below 3 percent, and they haven't had an inflation problem, and we people argue that if our unemployment rate gets down much below where it is now, gets down to below 6 or 5 percent that we're in real trouble. What is the difference in the two economies that accounts for that startling situation? Mrs. NORWOOD. There are really extraordinary differences in the labor markets of the two countries. The Japanese have in the past at least had a lifetime employment kind of approach in which regular full-time workers are shielded from unemployment. There is a large segment of part-time, temporary, and seasonal workers who tend to bear the brunt of downturns. These nonregular workers tend to bypass unemployment status, withdrawing from the labor force when the economy slackens. A lot has to do with perceptions as well. We have become used to a little bit higher rates, both for inflation and for unemployment. But I think something else that is very different is that the managerial, the white collar workers in Japan are somewhat different. They have become much more involved in the company than our managers have. I think that is changing. I think the Japanese are going to become more like us and we're going to become more like the Japanese. But one of the big differences is a dynamic character to our labor market with lots of movement and more stability in their labor 270 market with people taking a job and staying with one company and being guaranteed a job. Senator PROXMIRE. That's very helpful and it might be useful for us to see if there are studies that have been made of the differences here. Mrs. NORWOOD. We have done some. Senator PROXMIRE. What's that? Mrs. NORWOOD. We have done some. Senator PROXMIRE. Will you make those available to the committee? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. Senator PROXMIRE. I would be very interested in that. [The following information was subsequently supplied for the record:] 271

[From the Monthly Labor Review, March 1984] Japan's low unemployment: an in-depth analysis A BLS analysis ofJapan's laborforce data concludes, in contrast to aprivate study, that Japanese unemployment rates are only slightly understated relative to U.S. concepts

CONSTANCESORRENTINO

Japan's unemployment rates have long been among the low- end of the fiscal year, when firms there traditionally hire cst in the world. From 1960 through 1974, joblessness in new workers, and the end of the school year, when graduates Japan averaged 1.3 percent and neverexceeded 1.7 percent, flood the labor market. according to the Japanese labor force survey. Among the Taira's major adjustment to the Japanese unemployed is major industrial countries, only Germany had a better labor the addition of March school graduates who are waiting to market performance. Japan's employment situation wors- start jobs within 30 days. Although he is aware that promises ened after the 1973 world oil cnsis and, since 1975, Jap- of employment to graduates in Japan are almost never with- anese unemployment has been more than 2 percent, currently drawn, Taira proceeds to abstract from this economic and 2.6 percent. By contrast, unemployment rates in most West- cultural effect and treat the graduates waiting to start jobs em industrial nations are now 3 to 5 times as high. as if they were in the United States where employment offers These relatively low Japanese unemployment rates, even are nowhere near as firm. Moreover, normally no such large in times of recession, suggest that the rates may be under- body of persons would be waiting to begin jobs in 30 days; stated as compared with Western countries because of def- hence, it is more realistic not to count them as part of the initional or conceptual differences. Some recent articles or unemployed. Taking this and some other more minor dif- studies have come to this conclusion. ferences with Taira into account, we find that Japanese un- For example, a thoughtful article by Koji Taira in the employment rates are only slightly understated in relation July 1983 Rerieo' presented a timely analysis of Japan's to U.S. concepts. low unemployment rate. Using data from Japan's special Although we challenge Taira's conclusion that Japanese March labor force surveys and U.S. definitions of unem- unemployment is considerably understated, we agree that ployment, Taira adjusted official Japanese rates to approx- the Japanese labor market is, in many ways, unique. Insti- imate U.S. concepts. He concluded that the Japanese jobless tutions, attitudes, and economic and social structures are rate would be '"nearly double the official unemployment certainly different in Japan than they are in the United States. rate' if U.S. concepts were used.' Indeed, it is in these differences, rather than in statistical The BLsdoes not agree with Taira's conclusion. We argue methods and-definitions, where we find the real reasons for that he does not give weight to the fact that March is a very the low unemployment rates in Japan. These differences unusual month for the Japanese labor market. March is the tend to push Japanese labor slack into underemployment and hidden unemployment. After a detailed analysis of Tair- ConsiavncSornnuino is an noonomioiin sti Division of Foreign taoUr a's work, this article presents expanded unemployment rates- Siii'sicss .mi Tar&. Bu.ru of Labor Smiasiio. incorporating several forms of labor undenutilization-which 272

draw the Japanesente somewhat closer to U.S. levels. was decided that the official Japaneseunemploymen9gur\ Thes expanded ratesinclude severadof Taira's adjustments provided a good enough basis for international compa2onsi according to what we believe is the more appropriate con- The following tabulation alsowsthe official Jaae; . by Japan andas adjusted by text. employment ratesas published Talrs and aLSto approximate U.S. concepts and rates for Current ttLs mnehod the United States. March 1977-80, including Arned Forces Since the early 1960's. theBureau of Labor Statistics has (the data arenot seasonally adjusted): prepared andpublished adjusted unemployment rates approximating U.S. concepts for major industrial countries, Ofillial Taim *Ls United 2 year rames method niethad States- including Japan.Table I nhowsthe asnmuafigures for 1970- by Jnpanand as adjusted by BLSto approx- 1977...... 2.4 4.2 2.8 7.8 82as reported 1978 ...... 2.6 4.7 3.0 6.5 irnate U.S. concepts. t979 ...... 2.5 4.5 2.7 6.0 The method of adjustment isexplained in detail in a 1978 1980 ...... 2.2 3.8 2.3 6.5 bulletin, Inemat-onal Coparions of Unenwloyment.' The bulletin outlines severaldifferences between U.S. andJap- Whether the Japaneserate is 2.4 or 2.8percent, it is still aneseunemployment concepts, but the Bureau madeno far lower than in most of the other industrial countries. adjustments in the official Japaneselabor adjustments becauserelevant datawere not then available. BtS makestwo 5 It noted that Japan's method of computing unemployment force to put it on a U.S. basis: (I) unpaid family workers -,results in a slight understatement of Japaneseunemploy- who worked~fewer than 15 hours (about 500,000) are sub- ment under U.S. concepts."' tracted becausesuch workers are excluded from the U.S. Sincethat bulletin waspublished, datafrom Japan's1977- labor force; and (2) for comparisons of civilian unemploy- 1980special March surveys have become available, making ment rates, the National Defense Force (about 240,000) is it possible, to some extent, to quantify the differences be- subtracted from theJapanese labor force. Theseadjustments tweenJapanese and U.S. unemployment concepts. How- have very litle effect, rising the official unemployment rate ever, the March survey results have not been incorporated by only 0.1 percentage point in a few years. into the BLS adjustment method. There are severalreasons U.S. and Japanese surveys compared for this. First, thedata are ambiguous in many respectsand, therefore, subject to different interpretations. Second, the Until 1967, the Japanesesurvey closely paralleled the fact that they arefor an atypical month of the year requires U.S. Current Population Survey. That year, the cas was caution in their use. Third, the relevant data are availabte revised so that more specific questions on labor force status only for the period 1977through 1980. Special March sur- pere asked, and a 4-week time period was specified for veys were conducted before 1977and after 1980, but these jobseeking activity on the part of unemployed persons.6 No surveys usedsomewhat different questionnaires andthe in- such questions have been added to dheregular Japanese formation required for adjustments was not collected. And survey. finally, becausethe BLs analysis of the March surveys for In the United States,an enumerator visits a home during 1977-80 shows that the Japaneseunemployment rate is, at the survey week, asks a seriesof questions, and fills out -most, understated by only 0.1 to 0.4 percentage point. it the survey form. In contrast, the enumerator in Japanvisits the sample household prior to the survey week and leaves the survey form for the respondent to complete. At the end Table1. Ja=aneseun _r9a rats, t1tet and enumerator visits the household adlusted b.yas to en a s. eonnepta,1970-82 I of the survey week, the en- 1 1-1 again andcoltects thequestionnaire, checking over the tries at that time. in._-. i tui t ti Unemployment. The unemployed in the monthly Japanese survey are defined as all persons 15 years of age or over ...... I 1.2 I2 1171130 ._...... 3 2 1.2 who did not work at all in the reference week and who were 1972...... 14 54 14 work or awaiting the results of previous employment 1977...... 13 13 13 seeking applications. answers to . .7...... 22 20 210 The Japanesequestionnaire lists the following 7 ...... 20 20 22 work atall during 1r979 ' ' '' 22° 2.3 220 the question "Was this person engagedin 1979 ...... 21. 21. 2I1 the survey week?" 2 22 22 in I. Engagedmainly in wmrk so...... o2 2 t 04 2. Engagedpartly in woakbesides inending school 3. Engagedpartly in wark besidesbom duties.erc. 4. Hadajob but did not work 273

5. Had no job but seekingone The Armed Forces are included in the U.S. definition of 6. Attending school the labor force, effective beginning in January 1983. 7. Engagedin homeduties The 8. Other Japanese aborforce also includes military personnel. Japan includes and the United Statesexcludes inmates of insti- Persons checking response number 5-"had no job but tutions in the survey universe. However, Japan classifies seeking one"-are classified as unemployed. This response nearly all inmates as not in the labor force. Again, no ad- is defined in the survey explanatory notes: "Refers to the justment is necessary. A number of unemployed persons person who had no job but was actually seeking work by officially classified as "not in the labor force"-such as answering advertisements in the newspaper, applying at the those waiting to start a new job-should also be addedto Public Employment Security Office, etc. Also refers to the the Japanese labor force for comparability with U.S. con- person who is waiting for an answer to an application and cepts. However. some of the officially unemployed should is able to take up a job immediately after he finds one.' be subtracted. The special March surveys provide these data. The Japanese definition of unemployment appears to be more restrictive than the U.S. definition. Excluded from the The specIal March suneys unemployed in Japan, but included in the United States, To supplement the regular monthly labor force survey, are: the Japanese conducs special surveys each March which a Persons on layoff who were waiting to return to their jobs probe deeper into the labor force status of the population * Temporarily ill jobseekers who were not in a condition than do the regular monthly surveys. These special surveys to begin work immediately provide much greater detail concerning the conditions of * Persons who were actively seeking work in the past 4 unemployment and underemployment, reasons for unemployment, jobseeking weeks, but who took no active steps in the survey week activities, and time of last job search. and were not awaiting the results of a previous job ap- Employed persons arequestioned on their desire to change plication jobs, and short-time workers are asked about their desire * Persons without a job and waiting to report to a new job for more work. The special surveys also delve into the job within 30 days. (In the United States, there is no direct desires of persons classified as "not in the labor force." question on this point, but those who volunteer the in- Reference periods and definitions are identical in both the special surveys formation that they are waiting to start a new job in 30 and the regular surveys. Both are self-enu- days are classified as unemployed). merations. The sample size of the March surveys was half that of the regular surveys until 1980 when the size was However, there ate persons classified as unemployed in increased to about seven-eights that of the regular survey. Japan who would be considered "not in the labor force" The surveys refer to the week ending March 31. in the United States. The Japanese definition does not require Results of the special surveys for 1977 through 1980 can active workseeking within the past 4 weeks for classification be used to analyze the magnitude of the differences between as unemployed. Such active worksoeking is required in the U.S. and Japanese unemployment concepts. However, the U.S. survey, except for persons on layoff who are awaiting results do not allow for a complete and unambiguous ad- recall and persons waiting to begin a new job. Because these justment of Japanese unemployment to U.S. concepts. latter two groups are not within the Japanese concept of unemployment, all of the reported Japanese unemployed March: a mossunusual monrh. March is a time of exten- would be subject to the "workseeking in the past 4 weeks" sive churning in an ordinarily calm labor market. The Jap- criterion for comparability with U.S. concepts. anese fiscal year begins on April 1. New hiring of permanent staff by Japanese firms traditionally occurs in the month or Laborforce. There are several differences between U.S. two prior to the beginning of the fiscal year, to be effective and Japanese concepts of the labor force. The Japanese labor April 1.7 In addition, graduation from junior and senior high force consists of all persons age 15 and over who worked, schools and colleges occurs in the late February to early had a job but did not work, or were seeking work in the March period. The new school graduates receive and accept reference week. As nosed, Japan includes and the United job offers several months before leaving school' This prac- States excludes unpaid family workers who worked less than tice of job prearrangement is oneof the reasons Japan main- 15 hours in the survey week. The number of such persons tains very low levels of youth unemployment compared with is regularly reported in the Japanese survey. Persons with other countries where youth often do not prearrange their a paid job but not at work during the survey week are in job before leaving school (when they would not be classified the U.S. labor force whether or not they receive pay for the as unemployed because they are not currently available for time off; in Japan, these workers must have received pay work). With graduation generally occurring in early March, to be considered in the labor force (however, we do not there is a period of a few weeks when the school graduates adjust for this because Japanese employees normally receive armwaiting to begin their new jobs. This explains why the pay when absent from work). March surveys report a very large number of persons waiting 274

to begin new jobs-they are mainly new school graduates. Table3. Originaand aseaunelyWalead unemptacynt The March figures also include other personswho havebeen rasteIn Japan,annual aerage, 197-8 hired to report at the beginning of the fiscal year. In no ian inm In Ion other month but March would a similar situation occur. Labor turnover data by month for 1977 through 1980 show that both accessions andseparations are atyearly highs in April-the accession rate is more than 3 times as high H S I t__'2-. * ok _* tzsr~~~~~~22:' 54 2 5 as the annual average; the separation rate is nearly twice as Jtiu" ... 22 19 24 21 23 21 21 l Isru tl - 2 23 2 i0 25 22 2 .}2 an an °2 a high. (See table 2.) Clearly. April is the month in which 2.2 22 22 2.1 220 labor turnover peaks and March is the month when the Aa...... 1.9 1.9 2.2 job is thehighest. May ....0 1 2 2 2.5 a 2a o a1 number of persons waiting to begin a new J u.. . 7 2 2 2 2 2 1 I2 It a t Also, Japanesemonthly unemployment rates for 1977 JuY.:: .::: |2°97 2'1 21I 2 2 20 22 1:9 21 LAtuit.... 1.9 2a 2 2 23 21 2 0 2.1 through 1980 show March as the high month for unem- 24 2.0a i 25 3.) Seasonaladjustment lowers the Sccmlw .. 19 2. 22 9 ployment. (See table 20 4 It 19 21 2 0 2 1 March figuaes by 0.3 to 0.4 percentagepoint-a larger N1 .. 21 21 21 22 1.9 20 21 22 seasonaladjustment than for any other month. 4Wt o'l 20I -_- 2.2 _ 21 _ 22 2 Because of the extensive hiring which occurs in March. the special surveys most likely record larger than usual A-1S-oai -une.V9120 Ptn Mos, 133 aoff.. W MasuOa-a. ksti0 no w01 ft1. 544 numbers of persons who are classified as "not in the labor Fai SUiit. InG. P, in force" but who tested the job market that month. These persons report in the March surveys that they had looked It is difficult to draw conclusions from Japaneselabor for work earlier in the month, although not in the survey force data which are available only for March. (Unfortu- nately, the special surveys have not beenconducted at any week (the week ending March 31), andthat they are avail- 0 able for work. Many of them becomediscouraged andgive other time of the year.) Only inferences can be madeabout up jobseeking by the time of thesurvey week. Becausethey what the March special surveys would show in a more sought work during the month andwere available for work, typical month or on an annual average basis. In thefollowing they would be classified as unemployed under U.S. con- section, Bn5 takes into account the timing of the special cepts. However, their numbers are probably at a seasonal surveys andmakes some estimates which put the results on high in March. They are attractedinto the labor force by a more typical basis. In several instances, however, results the prospect of hiring for the beginning of the fiscal year. are presented as "upper limits" becauserelevant data are In other months, when hiring falls to more normal levels. not available on a typical basis. the number of such jobseekers would also fall. Adjustment to U.S. concepts The BtS method of adjusting the special March surveys annual Tablet Labor turnover In Japanby mont, to U.S. concepts is compared with theTaira method in table avage, l97n-so 4. There are four adjustments with regard to Japaneseun- i In ?tin ItI employment. The first. "inactive jobseekers" (Taira calls ftt leAs- "aP.,- Ann- tsar- M. M them "non-unemployed"), arc subtracted from the Japanese .I.t s. N.ant tin alla si tta unemployed count by both BnS and Taira, but the B1. ad- Jaritr li..t Io It a 17o 9 76 _ 17 justment is larger. The second and third, "jobseekers not Fnna 215 11 1 li 14 1.2... 1.4 in the labor force" (termed "job searchin March and cur- Main..h l.1 7 a 17 1.7 1. 1 .8 Alad . .54 . S3D51 30 ittI29 731 1 rently available for work" by Taira) and "persons waiting May . 14 7 1.3 1 37 'I17 1517 to begin new jobs," are added to the unemployed under 13 74 1.2 13 Jun1 ...... 1.2 74 171 12 but the Bas adjustments are smaller. The Ja* 11 14 ii 13 12 1 123 both methods, ougust tO 1 .5 l it 13 lIt 1.1 124 fourth adjustment, persons on temporary layoff (temned by Taira) are added Seositir4i 12 lit 11 14 1 14 72 74 "layoffs, employed but closed down" Nitunmr 13, li 12. 1.1 1 3 li2t 3 1 to the Japaneseunemployed by Taira but not by nLS. Dyer 1 .9 119.1 72 I 1.1Il7.3 .9it 12 Both the BLS and Taira adjustments are presented on a A-r 9e1 6 .5 A16 1.6S 1.6 1I6 "total labor force" basis which includes the Arted Forces. AmlnW.~ P.i- it1It i t . i (The adjusted rateson a civilian basis are virtually the same d ."n becausethe esa... I13 9 340347 1 3119 In 3i5 as the ratesusing the total labor force concept JapaneseNational DefenseForce is relatively small.) lNM. ittl a'star nanitli " 35malupa- a, 1taf otnla wu.an anor susl3acsr9mo o Both nra and Taira exclude unpaid family workers who worked less than 15 hours. However, the figures differ 1990 Moult somewhat becauseBaL's figures are basedon "actual sta- 275

tus.' while Tair's amtbased on "usual status." The "ac- awaiting answers to applications for employmenttThus. tual status" figures wereused because they conform to the persons who madetheir last requestor application for work U.S. concept of employment. Furthermore. they are gen- over I month ago but are still awaiting the answer (and did erally closer to the annual average number of unpaid family nol inquire about it) may count themselves asunemployed. workers working less than 15 hours thanthe "usual status" According to the March special surveys, nearly 30 percent figures. The sioeof the labor force is also affected by how of the "minaciveworkseekers" listed their major job search many persons "not in the labor force" are reclassified as method as applying to the Public Employment Service. An- unemployed andhow many unemployed are reclassified as other 30 percent applied to employers or maderequests with "not in the labor force." (See table 4.1 schools or acquaintances. Taira and BLSagree that these two groups-accounting for 6O percent of the "inactive Jnacrio' jobsedo's. These are personswho are reported jobseekers'-should be excluded from the Japaneseun- as unemployed in Japanbut who did not actively seekwork employment count on the grounds that they did not take during the month. active stepsto find work in March. However. Taira does In the March special surveys. unemployed personsin not exclude the remaining personswho responded that their Japan were askedthe following question: "When did you main searchmethod was o f(1)study want ads or consult last requestor apply?" Accompanying this question arcthe with acquaintances;(2) prepareto start a business; or (3) other. instructions "include inquiring or demanding the result." BLSdisagrees with Taira's inclusion of these remaining There are three possible responses:(I) within this week; groups in the unemployed. Thesepersons neither took an (2) in March: and(3) Februaryorearlier. Thusit ispossible active step to find work nor checked on any previous ap- to determine thenumber of persons reported asunemployed plications during the month. U.S. concepts require specific in March whose last active searchfor work was prior to jobseeking activity within the past 4 weeks. Studying want that month. There are a large number of such persons, ads in the newspaper is not sufficient; the actual placement amounting to more than 40 percentof the reported number or answering of an ad is required to be counted as unem- of unemployed eachMarch. ployed. Checking with friends or relatives is considered as The explanation for the large number of inactive work- active jobseeking in the U.S. survey if such checking was seekers in Japan is that the survey questionnaire contains done in the paso4 weeks. Those Japanesewho "consulted the instruction that unemployed personsmay include those with acquaintances" should also be held to the "past 4

TOa . AdJuat afJapn. unaanptoymnt andbbor the dab to approbt U. e a, 1i lkftsis hit i

Tle BLS Tanh Ks Oloh ul Tail KI IReports u~acw~lenp a ...... 1.270 1.270 1.410 1.410 1.350 1.350 1.240 1.240 1fso,aau, ,a '&...... 330 520 420 Plus _5C 501nbout 1 n tn w lloe0 640 370 ODD 310 04 40,1.615 mnsoate9 ...... 010 510 5S0 50 490 490 430 430 Lmm "ZS10._or. _- so - 60 - 70 - sO Ptarons s ...... 740 7b v0.#00471 17L0 00 740 SO a8 Lflflsl no BI 740 740 gnu . . _ ...... 1 Z _ ..-S 2440..20O - 040 - 5S0 4w7ted 1 ...... - 1.510 - 1.630 _ .440 2.10 P 1.04 ...... 400 . 10 140 140 140 40D h ...... 7 570 .250 7610 1.570 ,770 10490 1.030 1)l 510 1et bee, ...... 53.4350 53.430 54.2Z0 14.204 54.770 54.470 55.70 S5S70 Last 141109gs 'olSen u0 14 l2u2 IS 2t Lesnitt 13ee 3320 520 420 640 3730 a4 310o IlSaaueos cduslesloral4n lor 540

-4-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~- I MT2140laOu50.bec.l 4.25424 30W 42...... 4.10 323 45.0 30 S .;:=- -... .tak...... ~ :=' 020 2. ". W. 2.S 22 2.2nk . byu tn n *1.2M 2.5~ hp.7 3 *.O 27 h 23 -or -o nedif w an 6 410,-b-f. 4050404011l05Wa O ta-mu ill lat ta Xam Nul Dala ft 10160'46 uaaeata Ut t 0lnio

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weeks" test. firms, it is likely that a number of personstested the job Thus, the aLsadjustment to exclude "inactive work- market in March and withdrew the following month after seekers" is higher than Taira's: 540,0.ll in March 1980. they found that there was no work available "near home' compared with Taira's 310,000. or "meeting their ability," and so forth. Thus, although thesepeople were unemployed under U.S. conceptsin March, Jobseekers nor in rhelaborforce. Theseare personsre- they are probably not representative of the average number ported as "not in the labor force" who after further ques- of such personsover the course of the year. Somefurther tioning reveal that they havesought work in the past4 weeks downward adjustment seemswarranted, but none is made and intend to begin work immediately. The BLsadjustment in table 4 becauseof the lack of relevant data. for these jobseekers is smaller than Taira's becauseBLs excludes persons who said they intended to begin work Persons waiting to begin a newjob. These are persons immediately but who werenot available during the survey classified as "not in the labor force" who, after further week becauseof housekeeping or school. questioning, say they expect to start work within I month. In the March special surveys, personsnot in the labor Taira addsall of thesepersons to the unemployed: aLs adds force are asked the following probing questions: only a portion of them.adjusting for the oversiatementwhich results from the endof Japan's school year. a. Do you wish to do any work? (Question 8) Under Taira's adjustment, the number of personswaiting b. Do you intend to take up a job immediately if you find to begin a new job accounts for 35 percent of his adjusted one? (Question ga) unemployed. In relation to results for other countries, this your in- c. Why are you not now seeking a job despite proportion is unusually high. In the United States,Canada, tention of taking up one?(Question 8b) and France such personsmake up only about 2 to 5 percent Employment Security Of- d. Have you beento the Public of the unemployed. " fice, applied to other organizations, or consulted with In the U.S. survey, personswaiting to begin a new job acquaintances for a job this month? IQuestion 8c) within 30 days are classified as unemployed if they are Responses to thesequestions show that asubstantial num- available to begin work immediately. The reasoning behind ber of persons classified as "not in the labor force" were this is that, in many cases,the anticipated job does not actively seeking work during the month andcurrently avail- materialize, and the waiting period actually represents the able for work. The reasonfor this is the wording of the beginning or continuation of a period of unemployment. survey questionaire. Personswho regardthemselves as mainly In the regular Japanesemonthly survey, no mention is keeping house, going to school, or retired may check such madeof the labor force classification of personswaiting to responses rather than "secking a job," even though they begin a new job. They are most likely enumerated as not have also actively looked for work. This possibility is even in the labor force. more likely if the workseeking occurred earlier in the month , The special surveys elicit information on such persons in rather than in the survey week, becausethe original question the question "Do you wish to do any work?" which is specifies "the survey week." askedof all personsclassified as not in thelabor force. The This entire section of the special survey is ambiguous. possible responsesto this question are as follows: of translation as well as The ambiguities involve subtleties * Yes, if there is any thosewho said they interpretation by respondents. Among * Yes, if conditions are favorable "intend to take up a job immediately" in answer to item b * A job is already available up are a number who respond that they are "unable to take to start within one month: a job due to housekeeping or school" in answer to item c. after graduation in March would like' The apparent explanation is that thesepersons other they cannot do so in thesurvey to take up a job even though to start after one month week. in For an adjustment to U.S. concepts, it appearsthat some The March surveys record a substantial number of persons persons classified as "not in the labor force" should be who respond that a job was available within I month. The added to the Japaneseunemployment count. Taira addsall great majority are young personswho check "after grad- of those who said they looked for work in the month and uation in March." There is nothing in the survey to indicate intended to take it up immediately. Ar the least,BLs believes that these school graduateswanted to begin work or were that those who were "unable to takeup a job dueto house- even available to begin work earlier thanApril I. In general, work or school" should be subtracted from this adjustment new graduates are not interested in beginning work any becausethey were not currently available during the survey sooner than April 1. They generally travel during their last week. Hence, BLs's adjustment for this category is lower school vacation. Although graduation ceremonies are over, than Taira's, but even this reduced figure may be overstated. they are formally registered asstudents at school until March BecauseMarch is the traditional hiring period for Japanese 31. Moreover, it is highly unlikely thatthere would be any 277

of these school graduatesin the "waiting to stati a new unemployed is in accord with the recommendations of the job" category during any other month of the year. International Labour Organization's 1982Conference of La- The U.S. rationale for counting such persons as unem- bour Statisticians. 'I In its revised standard definitions of ployed seems inapplicable to Japan,where, as Taira points employment and unemployment, the tLO takes into consid- out, job promises to school graduates are very firn. and eration the question of formal job attachment. Under the cancellation of such promises is rare. Data on placement tLO standards, personson temporary layoff are classified as activities by Japaneseemployment offices indicate that in employed if they havea formal job attachment (as deter- March 1977through March 1980,there were virtually two mined by receipt of wagesor salary or other factors). Per- job openings for every school-leaver applicant, andmore sonson layoff with t no formal job attachment are classified than 99 percent of them were placed in jobs. as unemployed. Thus, it appearsreasonable to omit the school graduates sLsrecognizes that personson layoff representa form of from the upward adjustment of the unemployed for three labor underutilization in all countries, whether they arc reasons: (I) they are probably not available for work prior classified as employed or unemployed. To enhance inter- to April 1; (2) they would not be included in the count in national comparisons of how labor markets are functioning, any month but March; and(3) there is hardly any chance it would be desirable to measureand compare total labor that the jobs they are waiting to start will disappear. slack-that is, unemployment, workers on layoff. workers Of the 740,000 persons "waiting to begin a new job on part time for economic reasons,and discouraged work- within I month" in March 1980,550,000 were school grad- ers. uates.BLs has omitted theschool graduatesfrom theupward The special labor force surveys for March 1977Ihrough adjustment of Japaneseunemployment. This leaves 190,000 March 1979provide dataon the number of Japaneseclass- persons who were not school leavers in March who were ified as "employed, with a job but not at work" who were also waiting to begin new jobs. Such personsare probably on temporary layoff. The category was dropped from the slightly more open to the nsk of their prospective jobs being special surveys in 1980on the grounds that it was inappli- canceled, although the risk would stilt be rather low. If cable to the Japanesesituation. Taira adds the personson included in the Japaneseadjusted unemployed, they make layoff to the Japaneseunemployed count. Although BLS up 15 to 20 percent of the total. As mentioned previously, believes they should not be added,an alternative adjustment such persons typically account for only 2 percent of U.S. (11) is constructed in table 4 which includes these persons unemployment. in the unemployed. The number of nonschool-leavers who are waiting to begin a new job in March is most likely inflated in terms of Theoutrcome. The ass adjusted rates are considerably lower an annual average becauseApril is the traditional hiring than Taira's rates." The largest adjustments are for 1977 month in Japan. sLsincludes all of them in the adjustment and 1978, when the published Japanese jobless rates are shown in table 4. with the reservation that they represent increased by 0.4 percentage point by BLs. In 1979, the an upper limit for this adjustment. increase is 0.2 and in 1980, 0.1. It should be emphasized that these include "upper limit" adjustments in two cases- Persons on lavoff Taira makes an adjustment to include persons waiting to begin a new job and jobseekers "not in persons on layoff in the Japaneseunemployment count on the labor force." Inclusion of persons on layoff raises the the grounds that suchpersons are included in the U.S. con- Japanese rate by another 0.2 to 0.3 percentage point. cept of unemployment. Personswithout work and awaiting The BLsestimates are considerably below the levels es- recall to their former jobs are included in the U.S. unem- timated by Taira even if persons on layoff are included. ployed, whether or not they were actively seeking work. This is mainly because BLshas made adjustments to put the However, thetwo countries' concepts andpractices of "lay- March surveys on a more typical basis by excluding the off" are so different that sLs believes no adjustment is t new school graduates who were waiting to take up their warranted. The reasonfor this is the overriding difference jobs. Taira's method has the effect of using the March in job attachment. Personsawaiting recall are appropriately surveys as representative of the Japanese labor market over counted as unemployed in the United Statesbecause they the course of the year. Such an approach would be similar are "jobless"-they are no longer on the firm's payroll, to using unadjusted data from a seasonally high unemploy- many are actively seeking work, and most are collecting mint month for the United States-such as June when stu- unemployment benefits. By contrast, in Japanpersons on dents flood the labor market-and presenting them as our layoff have work contracts or otherwise strong informal typical labor market situation for comparison with average commitments from their employers andcontinue to receive annual activities in other countries their pay (partly subsidized through government payments to the firm), they do not seekother work, and they answer Unemployment rate double for women surveys to the effect that they have a job. Although the overall Japanese unemployment rate is The sLsexclusion of personson layoff from the Japanese changed only slightly in our view when the March survey 278

. data are adjusted to U.S. concepts. there is a marked dif- Table S. Expwldw measures fomar the ference in the adjusted unemployment rates for men and UntiedStates Jand, 1 women. The conventional Japanesedata by sex show vir- r.1 a u-rem tually no difference between the unemployment rates for 11911) (P91695Ing) men and women. According to the BLs method, the male- as that obtained by female differential is about the same TM U.S r0d d9..b...... 7637 S247 Taira: the female ratesare about double the male rates. Ihe

following tabulation shows unemployment ratesfor menand M."Puny ...... 7n , ...... *.M2 '000200 women, March 1977-S0 (basedon the civilian labor force. 410 t.0 .2 . 43 1.920 47060561 ...... 3221 MV.00 excluding layoffs): No7 ...... 21616 an Approximaling 1161rs111416 9.115 202D As pablished U.S. 90n0eplo U-7Lou u.s- awr'1n ., ...... o,3D6o,10109 s31200 r6 Perild Men Women Men Women 7164U.S. 46W 464940 d10...940 54.560 1977 ...... 2.4 2.3 2.0 4.3 F1b1 M . 1-29 461740 2.2 4.3 1978 ...... 2.7 2.4 sm6...... 312*0 1979 ...... 2.5 2.4 1.9 4.1 940...... a2.622.. 3.61 1980 ...... '2.2 2.3 1.7 3.3 U-ttl7 a ' 12 5750 thrMa=J(P-M)7n7.1 2l3 Thus, the Japanesesituation appears more like Western countries where women usually have higher unemployment fo40611401 45 ~ 44llth611 ratesthan men. 64fl1166i460611W. 92 4.0 The reasonfor thewide male-female differential for Japan U-. 749656~t04641 after the adjustment is madeis that women account for the great majority of jobseekers classified as not in the labor force, while men account for most of the reported unem- It . 6kdM1 WnLud 600 14 41 449 nWObot 6 o

ployed who did not actively seekwork in the month of the 9r46pkd r Ma )h..1460.45141 . survey. -11.hM k. U.S.Abrc dlfi n. '6466o409d64946441011t0 661 r6a166116106190464b69444on on6 Mar0 6929 Why Is Japanese unemployment low? -Aun9061fob 6 194W-M.no. 716 PM 00 =ou,== 6ton lot- u Antmre6n1 -h Japaneseunemployment rates are very low whether U.S. 6460166-in C 65 2 4d4 6 0 7 64 Japaneseconcepts are used. The low Japanesejobless or dn64 a-n"04 m4ot95415e s6n 666644 rates reflect, in pan, the fundamental differences between 6179d0460 ti-44-_~ 05`-1475- the Japaneseeconomic system andculture and those of the industrialized Western nations. Difference in labor force mix are also significant. concessions during economic difficulties. In this social con- Lifetimeemploymentsystem. UnderJapan's "lifetime em- text, theJapanese responses to recession can be understood. ployment system," regular, full-time workers (mostly men) are shielded from unemployment. During periods of eco- Nonregular bortersk. But what happens to employees who nomic difficulties, companies refrain as much as possible are not regular workers? There is a large segment of part- from laying off or dismissing their regular workers. For time, temporary, andseasonal workers-mostly women and example, during the 1974-75 recession andthe slow-growth "retired" older workers-who tend to bear the brunt of years of the 1980's, hundreds of thousands of unneeded downturns becausethey do not come under 'lifetime em- workers were kept on company payrolls, with subsidies ployment." These workers provide a degree of flexibility provided by the government. These workers were often for Japanesefirms, allowing them to accord more permanent moved into jobs in different plants within the samefirm or status to their regular employees. As Taira points out, these 6 even lent to other firms.1 "nonregular" workers tend to bypass unemployment status, Japanesecorporations, labor, and the government co- moving from employment to "not in the labor force" when operate to an unusual degree. This cooperation is partly the economy slackens, andthen back to employment when attributable to the broad social role assumedby Japanese the economy improves. While they areout of the labor force. corporations which provide a wide rangeof social services, they areusually supported by their families. However, many including housing or financial help with mortgage payments, do show up as unemployed-the jobseekers not in the labor recreational facilities, andeven wedding halls in which em- force in the more probing March survey. ployees are married. Labor often accedesto wage andother There is indirect evidence of this "hidden" type of em- 279

ployment in Japan's labor force data. For example, partic- on part-time schedules for economic reasonsand u-7 brings ipation rates for women fell off sharply in 1974-75, but in discouraged workers as well. their unemployment rates rose only slightly. In the more Table 5 shows a comparison of u-6 andu-7 for the United recent sdow growth period, however, female participation Statesand Japan.Data from the March 1980special survey stabilized and even moved upward, as women joined the are used for Japan;annual 1980data are shown for the labor force to supplement family income (among other ma- United States. The Japanesefigures should be viewed as onm).1" This was more in line with the U.S. situation, where only approximate indicator of u-6 and U-7 becausethey women continue to flow into the labor market during reces- are partly estimated. One problem is that the March survey sions. does not give a comprehensive count of persons on part time for economic masons.The survey reports that of all Laborforce mix. Besidesthe social and cultural factors. personsusually working fewer than35 hours, 1.53 million other elements in Japanpromote low unemployment rates wished to work more hours. This is a good indicator of the vis-a-vis the United States. For instance, the higher pro- number of personson part time for economic reasonswho portion of workers in the agricultural sector in Japanmeans usually work part time. However. the number of persons that a larger segment of the Japaneselabor force is practi- usually working full time who wereon pan time for eco- cally immune to unemployment. Agricultural workers may nomic reasonsis not fully available. The number on "zero be underemployed but they are not assubject to unemploy- hours," or with no work at all during the week is reported ment as are industrial workers becausethey usually spend in the March 1977 through 1979surveys, but not in the some hours at work eachweek. Also, the higher shareof March 1980 survey. We can estimate the March 1980figure self-employed and unpaid family workers in the Japanese at 130,000, basedon the March 1979 proportion. There labor force has a similar effect. Furthermore, the shareof must be a considerable number of other normally full-time youth in the labor force is much smaller in Japanthan in workers on reduced hours, but they are not enumerated in the United States. (In all developed countries, including the survey. For purposes of this comparison, we havedou- Japan,youth under theage of 25 havehigher unemployment bled the number on "zero hours," to 260,000 persons.s9 ratesthan adults.) Moreover, young workers in the United In the March 1980survey, respondentsnot in the labor Statestend to change jobs much more often than their Jap- force who desired work and were available, but who did anesecounterparts, further increasing the unemployment not look for work during the month, were askedwhy they differential between the two countries. were not seeking jobs now. Those responding "not likely to find work" are close to the U.S. concept of discouraged An expanded uneemployment concept workers. Also within this concept are the "inactive job- International comparisons of conventionally defined un- seekers" who were excluded from the Japaneseunemployed employment rates should be understood for what they mea- under U.S. concepts. This group has beenadded to U-7. sure-they compare the proportion of the labor force in A comparison of the U-6 and U-7 ratesin relation to the eachcountry which is without work, available for work, conventionally defined ratesshows that the Japanese"ex- andactively seeking work. As such, they measurean im- panded concept" ratesare increasedto a greater degreethan portant part of labor market health. But they do not show the U.S. U-6 andU-7 rates. In other words, there is a con- the entire picture. vergence in the "unemployment rates" for the two countries Is the efficiency of the Japaneselabor market really 3 to when the definition is broadened. Under the conventional 5 times better than that of the Westernnations? A strict definition, the U.S. rate is triple the Japaneserate. Ex- comparison of unemployment rateswould arrive at thatmis- panding the concept to U-6, the U.S. rate is around 2.3 leading conclusion. However, we have noted that a sub- times the Japaneserate. Defining unemployment even more stantial part of Japan's labor underutilizaiion falls into the broadly to encompass discouraged workers (U-7), the U.S. realm of underemployment (workers on reduced hours, rate falls to 1.7 times the Japaneserate similarly defined. 'temporary layoffs') and discouragement, or labor force withdrawal. These forms of labor slack do not show up in Miracle or artifact? the conventional unemployment rate. The answer to Taira's question-is Japan's low unem- A useful international comparison to supplement com- ployment an economic miracle or a statistical artifact?-is parisons of conventionally defined unemployment could be that it is neither. Although the Japanesedefinition of un- made if the unemployment concept were expandedto en- employment is somewhat more restrictive than the U.S. compass theseother types of labor underutilization. In the definition, the regular monthly survey gives a close ap- United States,such measuresexist within the unemployment proximation of the rate of unemployment under U.S. con- measuresdesignated U- t to U-7 s Thesemonthly measures cepts. Since the monthly surrey understatessome groups include the official unemployment rate u-5. While U-1 to and overstates others, the differences tend to cancel out, U-4 represent narrower measuresof unemployment, U-6and with a slight upward adjustment remaining. However, the U-7 represent expanded concepts. u-6 incorporates persons Japaneselabor force surrey is misleading when it comes to 280

of total measuring women's unemploymenlt. Based on the March derstood for what they are--only partial measures surveys, there is a wide differential between men's and labor slack. Expanding the unemployment concept to in. women's unemployment which is not apparent from the clude other elements of labor slack-economic part-time rate closer regular monthly survey. But Japanese unemployment rates and discouraged workers-draws the Japanese differ. are still extremely low by Western standards, both for men to U.S. levels. The explanations for the remaining and for women. ential lie in such differences as thecomposition of the labor Then, are these low Japanese rates an economic miracle? force, levels of frictional unemployment, and economic The answer here is also "no." jobless rates must be un- growth rates. Q

-FOOTIOTES- of ft numberof Persns in iKojt Trim. "Jan's low unWploymem ecuromicmiracle or utais dent which coudd esulhin rmue underoonl ifcal anifct?" Mnanhly Labor Reoten.July 1983. pp 3-10. See tds Ibis categry C B insitted a questi on bthipnin in 1976eod fomnd job HenrySean Stoks. "JoblessRare Reachesa High for Jpan.'" Ne- YorJ the number of pcroc- repo:iny that they were waiing to stan. ronc T-o-. Mach 9. 19h3.p. D-9. JonWronoff. "Them is U.mopliryment increntd io about Spercenl of te unemployed.frnt annd 2 percet in Japn "The Onental Eonomi. Novcmber1981. pp. 40-3. Secalm previously Wotnofl's book lapunb Woted W /rin (Toiwc. N. J. Allenheld. Os tJapa-er Mioitry of Labour. fe.rho qL.of Lhiir Ssai-it. 1977 man aidCo 19831 itrnugh 1980 dilini. 'For evampt. se JoyannaMoy. "R-en labor -ttkri d-i/rowp-n-s " In an radon article.B. deibed in detuithe interiaonul diferences in le U.S. and9 orhe Csosnses."s M ushls Labor Rccsrn Januay 19S4. ii tire trtment of lyoffs. Sec Joyann Moy ad ConstanceScioninf. pp 4451. "IUnmployment. aborfoe trends,.and ayoff prctices in 10t onics." 1i/rerontioeol Comparrioooof Uncempo/eem.B-lhcin 1979I(Bure. MsMhn L.aor Reien. Dncember1981. pp 8- 1. of Labor Saisfics. 1978).pp 81-855 aIntemitonal Labour Org tafior. Thireenth InremutionatConfer' '/nteroationui Ceapaeia of Unerplyteveo. p 85 enco of Labon Stutisicums ReportoJ th Cor-hrfnee. Geneva. 18-29 Ortbr 1912. 'In the Japnes anneydefinitin of "family worken" the teen "an' paid" wa dpped in 1981.Now "family worke-" usdehfind a "per t'in a rescnt aticle iji Shinishi of the Jap-neseMinisry of Laboe renswhy suk o an unimcanpatedenerparis opeonedby a -eethrof onclyced Japaese ueipinyoni rateson u U.S. cocepts boric. acing dth family." Bcause of Japanes ls lawswhich allw a family bosifss te specil Mamh surneysof 1978and 1960 He djused Japaes an- or fame not favoambeita m nmt if they tepor wags onsta ries of nwploy-nnt naes to U.S. concept. tniving 3.1 percentin Marsh 1978 amily atken. nust -a topanedan "paid" for tu patuse However. and24 percnt in Much 1980 Fioih of Ihs figun-s e-e jst 0. peer Japanesstuisuiuua bhetovethat tem is no significat diffeonecebtwes ceniugepoint abve the figuresobtined in the f-rgoing BB analyss paid aid anpaidfamily mothe tnd an ich diutiant isa mde in the Like aU. Shiramshidid not makean adjustmentfor layoffs because"there aurneystutstics. Tt e t dedacions do nor amestarlymean thu cnw. is no s.ch pctice in Japn "He tJso s in accorwi the Becusionas pemaiu wanin factpaid. ofc w ahool grduates fm the djurtomo fan peros waiting to begin a neejob. SeeEiji Shinithi "l'ntematioatlCompaison of Usmployntet *Sec Robin L Stein. "Nnw rcfimtstns fr Employmert andUnem Concopts.''Mona/tyLahota atiatiessaodRetaetchBid/cnn March 1982. 1967.pp. 3-13. ployrr.ta," Enp/oymenttnd E-uemga. Pobsary pp. 13-20 (Eng/tlahtnAn.sht aninbIe frow nu). cnommunicaiawith theU.S. Embtssyin Tokyo.Febeay aBtnn 'pF. aplks of Jpanes employmetpectessee H OShiadat 1979. The Jlopnese i/ymeor Sot-l. JapaneseIdutil RelationsSenrie 6 ' Torah U aeorp/oytecor:An/ntc rionalPei0pa5tie. Rut/rlin2098 (BI . tTokyo. the JaVp ntituir of La r. 1980/. T. Shiti end thes. Con ma of Labor Staistic S.epember1981). p. 24. entpo.ev /adtun/ii Re/anionsIn Jqpan. JapiWanIAdustrial Reabloms Stnes 7 (Tokyo. the Japn tnsltur of Labour. 1980):Fujio JohnTanka. StUnSSurveys am conductedevey 2 or 3 yeas in Os- 'Employment in Japan." Chat/age. Juty-August1991; ad Don tobre bot they -a no elpful herein thatthey Osno "usualstacs aer "Lirefme E.VmeWyon Oberdrfr. "JapaneseSot Tocbh on Layoff." The WIahingrenPo.r. than "atual sdats andfthy obtain no in/ortasn on personawohu B G/-I. job and desinig wnrk Mach 9. 1975.p 'Sec Constance-Stonetiri. oImational compansensu/a borionrc cIaved on ansciarimiswith J nes statisicians,the anlsis of fthe paricipaion:. Monhh Labor R-siro Fcbrary 1983.pp 27-28. U S. Embassyin Tokyoconcluded that the whole fvesof questions mtd a items a" thugh 'd" in the tevt. suffnenform as ambiguitywith aSeeJulius Shiuki. 'Etploymeot and snemploymeatthe doughbut respectto the .nd "-with" and "intend " "Inen 's perceivedwithin o the hole." Mouh/v Lahr' Rei-. Febhna 1976.pp 3 10I thnoace /I contestof a wish. Thus. if cmndhioassunsis-en isha penou's "'This is semenb. higer th a compaable aiO Joton iUnited StIaes wish nte lasto Uom. pace. type of employment. nd so fonh). he or Usip the 1980U. S riof of persos on lyoff to pecuss ah. unsatly the susldncspand "I iniend to akeup njob inmmdiotly i/ Ic findthe cork fral time hot h. aceon rduced hearc. the Japaes figunewould apprpstanjob. sinc I don't e anythingcsisteMn with my wish.I am he esimated as 160.000rarbo t the 260.000usd he Tie Japaes nownot amkinga job in sphie n/my ifenyio* higumetsJ err increasedbecaus hour. nrductionstoncomc reasons i"Then is no direstqausion on waitingto befin a new job in 30 days eeusd more fneqanndyin Japn tha in the Unied States.whee- soers in the U.S surey. This ifrmation must be voluntenrdby the nspan are more likely tobeblid off. 281 Senator PROXMIRE. One other question. At the bottom of table 1 in the January CPI release is a section which breaks the inflation rate down into commodities and services. It shows that commodity prices which make up 46 percent of the CPI fell 1.3 percent in the year whsile the prices of services rose 4.3 percent. How do you account for the much higher inflation rate in services than in commodities and do the January figures suggest any changes from the pattern of the past year? Mrs. NORWOOD. We have been seeing for some time higher rates of inflation in services than we have seen in commodities. That is, in part, perhaps because of the competition in commodities from abroad. It's also in part due to the kinds of services that we have. We all know that health care services have not decelerated very much, and some of the services that are energy related or are classified as services in the housing component, for example, have also had fairly significant rates of inflation over the years. That's not a surprise. It's consistent I think with the data that we've been reporting for many months. Senator PROXMIRE. Thank you very much. Senator SARBANES [presiding]. Congressman McMillan. Representative MCMILLAN. Mrs. Norwood, pursuing a line of questioning the Senator was on there with respect to real growth rates in the economy and the growth in employment, could you give us some comparative figures that would indicate the rate of growth in the work force that the economy has to sustain in order to stay even? Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, we have had over the last year an increase of 2.2 million workers coming into the labor force. In the last month alone, in February we had 315,000 and in January we had 448,000. But more than 2 million a year is a sizable number to find jobs for. It is quite clear that because of population growth alone, and the increased labor force participation rates of some groups of the population, we have to keep running just to stand still. The economy must create jobs just to keep the unemployment rate where it is, and I think that that makes the job or reducing unemployment much more difficult, but it's something we have to face. Representative MCMILLAN. Is that a figure that is somewhat predictable in terms of examining prior rates of increase in the work force so that as a guide to decisions that the Congress needs to address we can relate anticipated increases in the work force to what is desirable and hopefully sustainable in terms of real expansion in the economy? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes, it is quite predictable. There are data available on birth rates going back some years, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics does have a program of projections for the future of the labor force that looks at industry and occupation. We do that about every other year. We have projections now to 1995. By fall we will be issuing a new set of projections to the year 2000. Representative McMiLL&N. It seems to me that one of the real challenging things we are dealing with is not just the expansion in the population of the country, which is perhaps, what, on the order of 1 percent? Mrs. NORWOOD. I'm not sure. 282 Representative MCMILLAN. Somewhere in that range, but we are dealing with sociological changes that have been going on in this country for a long period of time that have to do with working spouses that all contribute to family income that it seems puts us in a very difficult challenging situation in terms of meeting those needs, and I think some of the figures in terms of the percent of the working force participating are a result of those sociological changes. Mrs. NORWOOD. That's quite true. We have seen in the 1960's and 1970's an enormous increase in married women in particular coming into the work force and in women staying in the work force even after they reach the childbearing years. We believe that that rate of increase for women will slow down a bit, but that some increase is going to continue. We are seeing increases in the labor force entry of some of our minority groups. Particularly over the last year the change in the Hispanic group has been considerable. We have no idea, of course, what the effects of the new immigration legislation will be on that. The black minority has also had some considerable increase in its labor force. It's increasing at about twice the rate of the whites. So I think there are a lot of factors suggesting that people will continue to come into the labor market. On the other hand, we should recognize that some of those rates have slowed down in the 1980's. The number of young people, for example, because of a slowdown in birth rates earlier, has been sharply reduced in the 1980's. So we have both upward pressure on unemployment and some downward pull on unemployment. Representative MCMILLAN. One final question. We were talking about productivity and you indicated there is evidence of improving productivity on the manufacturing sector. It's always been extremely difficult for me to comprehend the manner in which we measure productivity in the service sector since so many aspects of the service sector have to do with delivering intangibles or delivering tangibles in which the cost of their production is only a fraction of the intangible or tangible product that they are delivering. Would you comment upon, let's say the degree to which aggregate productivity may be somewhat modified by the growth of the service sector and the difficulty in measuring productivity under those conditions? Mrs. NORWOOD. The measurement of productivity is a calculation that requires the measurement of output first and then some other things as well. In defining the output of a service industry, there can be very real difficulties. In all of the statistical agencies of the Government we have work going on in trying to develop new and better measures and expanded measures in the service producing area. There have been a number of people in academia who have also been working on this and there are some international groups which are trying to look at how to classify services and how to define them. I believe that a great deal more needs to be done in that area, particularly if we look at this industry by industry. When we get to the broad general sectors of the economy, we must rely on the data that are used in the gross national product 283 accounts, and there are improvements I believe that are needed in those measurements, but their measurements are reasonably consistent with what has happened in the past. We can at least get some information on trends. We do have work underway in our productivity office and in our price office, in particular, to look at some of these conceptual questions. Representative MCMILLAN. I guess another question would be how would you measure the productivity of lawyers in terms of li- ability lawsuits, for example? Mrs. NORWOOD. With great difficulty. Representative MCMILLAN. Thank you very much, Mr. Chair- man. Senator SARBANES. Thank you very much. We are very pleased to welcome Congressman Solarz to the committee. He is a very able and effective Member of the House, and I know he is going to bring great strength to the work of the Joint Economic Committee. He was recently placed on the committee by the House leadership. Steve, we are pleased to have you here. Representative SOLARZ. Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman. I'm very much looking forward to serving on the committee and particularly to working with you. I can't think of anybody under whom I would rather serve my inaugural term as a member of the committee than you. Let me say, Mrs. Norwood, for years I heard you on the radio driving into work each month and I never quite knew if you existed or not. So it's a delight to find out that, yes, Virginia, there is a Dr. Norwood. [Laughter.] I have a number of questions. First, how many new jobs do we in fact have to create a year just to stay even in terms of not increasing the unemployment rate? Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, over the past year we've had an increase on the labor force of a little more than 2.2 million, and then of course you always have some frictional exchange. So we certainly would have had to create several million jobs just to stand still. Representative SOLARZ. But that's a rather imprecise figure. Are you saying essentially about 2 million jobs a year is what we have to generate just to avoid increases in the unemployment rate? Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, last year the labor force increased by 2,242,000. So you would have had to have at least that number of jobs to give each of those people a job. Representative SOLARZ. And do you expect that around 2 million new people will be coming into the labor force this year and each year for the next several years based on your demographic projections? Mrs. NORWOOD. We anticipate that the rate of increase of the labor force is going to be somewhat slower or smaller than it had been in the 1970's because of young people, but that it will continue for the next several years somewhere around this figure, yes. Representative SOLARZ. Do you have a working or operative definition of what would constitute a full-employment economy in terms of what the unemployment rate would have to be? Mrs. NORWOOD. No, sir, we do not. We leave that to people who can make value judgments about the tradeoffs between unemployment and inflation, which is really what is involved.

79-018 0 - 88 - 10 284 Representative SOLARZ. Is there a consensus among economists these days as to what figures would be the functional equivalent of full employment? Mrs. NORWOOD. I don't think there is a consensus. I think there is agreement that whatever that figure is, it's a little bit higher than people have thought of it in the past to be. Representative SOLARZ. Which was 3 percent? Mrs. NORWOOD. When I first came into the Labor Department I remember going to a meeting at which there was great discussion about how could we let the unemployment rate go above 3 percent. I think most economists today recognize that it would be extraordinarily difficult to call that full employment, but how high up you go I think depends really on the particular judgments you make about the tradeoffs that would have to occur. Representative SOLARZ. Right. Now I gather your figure for this month is 6.7 percent unemployment in the labor force? Mrs. NORWOOD. That's correct, including the Armed Forces. Representative SOLARZ. What would that figure be if you added to it people who are working part time because they can't find full- time work? Mrs. NORWOOD. We do have in our release table A-5 which gives us a whole range of unemployment rates starting with the least restrictive definition and assuming that you only count someone unemployed if he or she has been unemployed 15 weeks or longer and going up to the most inclusive definition. Representative SOLARZ. Which table is that. Mrs. Norwood? Mrs. NORWOOD. That's A-5. The broadest definition includes all full-time jobseekers, half of the part-time ones and half of the part time for economic reasons plus discouraged workers. Representative SOLARZ. What does it come to? Mrs. NORWOOD. For the last quarter of 1986 it was 10.2 percent. Now if you exclude the discouraged workers and you just look at the part-timers of various types you get 9.2 percent. But you can see in that table a whole range beginning with 1.8 percent and going all the way up. Representative SOLARZ. Do you have any estimate as to the number of jobs that will be filled by American citizens as a result of the implementation of the immigration legislation-- Mrs. NORWOOD. No, not at all. Representative SOLARZ [continuing]. And the presumptive departure of people who are here illegally? Mrs. NORWOOD. We have been struggling, as a matter of fact, to figure out how to develop the kind of information needed in reports required of the Secretary of Labor and Secretary of Agriculture. Some of that is going to be very difficult to produce, but we're working on it. Representative SOLARZ. Now of the 6.7 percent who are unemployed, how many are long term, and a long-term unemployed is a person who has been unemployed for how many weeks? Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, that is also a judgment. I consider those unemployed 27 weeks or more, which is really 6 months to be the long-term unemployed, and there are 1,123,000 of those. Representative SOLARZ. And what percent is that of the total unemployed? 285 Mrs. NORWOOD. 14.1 percent among the total unemployed. Representative SOLARZ. Among the total unemployed. Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. Representative SOLARZ. So that would suggest that the great majority of unemployed are short-term unemployed? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. Representative SOLARZ. Will the great majority of those people in fact get new jobs rather than sink into the category of the long- term unemployed? Mrs. NORWOOD. What we find is that if you look at the pool of people who are unemployed in our survey in 1 month and then-you go into the next month, roughly half of those people remain unemployed in the 2d month. Although a quarter of them have found jobs and a quarter of them have left the labor force. Representative SOLARZ. Now you said the long-term unemployed were 14 percent of the unemployed. Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. Representative SOLARZ. But if you looked at just unemployment in terms of long-term unemployment, what percent of the labor force is long-term unemployed? Mrs. NORWOOD. It's perhaps 1 or 1.5 percent. Representative SOLARZ. Now how much significance would you attach to that? I mean obviously of course if a person is out of work for a few weeks or a month or two, particularly if they are living off their income, that's a great hardship and there are psychologi- cal consequences to it as well and emotional. But if in fact 98.5 percent of the work force is either working or can expect work relatively soon, how serious a problem is that? Does it make sense, in other words, to kind of make a sharp dis- tinction between long term unemployed and less than long term in terms of the significance of the unemployment rate? Mrs. NORWOOD. If you are one of those people, it's very significant. I feel rather strongly that this is the kind of problem that we often have when people look at 8 million people who are unemployed and then often try to develop programs that will take care of this whole group. The whole group does not need help, but I can tell you that there are 1,123,000 people out there who have been jobless for 6 months or longer. They are disproportionately minority, they are people who generally have very little skill, they often have very little education, they tend to live in areas where there are very few jobs and they are the prime candidates I think for the kinds of literacy programs that the Department of Labor-- Representative SOLARZ. So you're saying that one of the things that would make sense for us to do is to try to focus not only attention but programmatic remedies on the long-term unemployed because that's a more serious component of the overall unemployment problem? Mrs. NORWOOD. I think what I'm saying is that we should look at the disaggregated data and we should look at various groups of people who have particular problems, and to the extent that any programs are being developed, they ought to be based on the disaggregated data. 286 In this country we have a great deal of movement in our labor market. It's very dynamic and many people can help themselves. The data can help us focus on that. Representative SOLARZ. Have you ever done any studies on the difference between the long-term and the short-term unemployed in terms of what distinguishes the two groups other than the fact that one is long-term unemployed and the other is not? Mrs. NORWOOD. We've tried to look at the demographic composition and the geographic composition of them. Mr. PLEWES. The last time we took a serious look at it was about 2 years ago in a publication format, and we have the demographic data that we can update that study at any point. Representative SOLARZ. Could you get me a copy of the study you did 2 years ago? Mr. PLEWES. Yes. [The information referred to follows:] 287

[From the Monthly Labor Review, February 1984] Recent recessions swell ranks of the long-term unemployed During the past seven recessions. joblessness lasting more than half a year hasfar outpaced the overall increase in unemployment and in 1981-82 reached the highest level of the postwar era

PHiup L. RONES

Therecent recession in the United Statesproduced the high- lem.Particular emphasis will beplaced on the mostrecent estunemployment ratesin more than 40 years. It also pro- recession.' duced unusually long periods of unemployment for a While an assessment of the causes of lengthy unemploy- workforce that is normally among the most dynamic in the ment is not the focus of this discussion. a few comments world. are appropriate. What is being examined here is largely a Millions of Americans move into andout of eachlabor cyclical condition, that is. the sharp rise in long-duration forcecategory (employed, unemployed. or not in the labor unemployment brought about by thesevere 1981-82 reces- force)every month. Generally. abouthalf of the peoplewho sion. It should be noted. however. that some long-term are unemployed in one month are no longer unemployed joblessness is structural in nature. a result of some basic the next, some finding jobs arid others ending their job problem in the functioning of labor markets unrelated to searchfor other reasons.These people are then replacedhy cyclical changes.For example. the persistently high un- newly unemployed persons.Short-term unemployment is employment rate andunemployment duration of somegroups quitenormal in a dynamic economy and, within limits, is of racial andethnic minorities areevidence of such structural necessaryfor the normal functioning of thejob searchpro. unemployment. cess. It should be kept in mind. then, that in regard to long- During 1982,however. as in anyrecessionary year. fewer term joblessness. both structural andcyclical forces mav be unemployedpeople could find jobs. and.consequently. more atwork simultaneously. Somecases are fairly obvious. such remainedunemployed from one month to the next. As a asjoblessness among blacks. Some are not. For example. result,the number of personsout of work IS weeks or more prior to the two recessions of the 1980's. the incidence of rosesharply. long-term unemployment among workers in the primary Data on long-term unemployment provide a valuable ad- metals industries wasquite low-half the national average. dition to the more frequently reported unemployment data. More recently, long-term unemployment among thesework- Thisarticle will briefly investigate long-term unemployment ers hasbecome among theworst of any worker group. While andidentify those worker groups mostaffected by this prob- the timing corresponds to a cyclical downturn, considerable evidence indicates that the Nation's stre] industry is suf- PbiMpL. Rouns, mne-onomis iSh Illo Dwisim of Employmeninod fering from some basic problems quite unrelated to cyclical Uwoipiroyine Anaiyso.Bnso, of Labor Stijuics declines in demand.Thus, when structural problems appear 288

under the "cloak" of recession.unemployment problem' by 74 percentand. at the extreme.unempl-oymcnl if longer sill persistafter economic recescry is isell underwas than half a yea, nune than tripled. Unemployment duration and the unemployment !cvcl A similar patternoecurs in evcry perundof uncmployment should not be viewed as completely separateentities. In increasesDuring the last sevenrecessions (starting in the fact. the unemploymcnt level is really a function nl tiw- early 1950l'fs.the iiital of uneniploayedpersins rose. un factors.' The "incidence' of unemployment recfrs to the average.84 percentfrom its previous low lo its recession number of people who begin a spell of joblessness. Assum- high.' However. as table 2 shsiws.the number unemployed ing a constant duration, thc number unemployed will decline 15 weeksor morerose almost 3 times asfast andthe number if the incidence declines. Conversely. assuming a ciisnani unemployed more than a half year rosc more than 4 times incidence (a steady flow into unemployment status). the as fast. It should be noted that the recovery front the 1980 number of jobless will rise as duration increases,.that is. recessionwas so weak(the unemplovmeni rate only im- persons remain unemployed longer. Thus. the increasein proved hall a posoti that the percentageincrease in long- the unemployment levels during therecent recession (or anv termjohlessncss in the subsequent(191-182 recession was recession) snasdue bhiih in increasing duratiOnand inci- soinewhai low hy historical standards:the actual lesels dence. however. wcrelar higher thanthose in any previous piiswtar The most widely used measuresof unenmlisoctn du- rcccssiun . ration are the meanand medianduration of a spell ot an- Similarly. as a recessioncomes to an end. lung-term emplosmeni.' While these indicaiiirs generally rise with unemploymcnt coninues to increase.Enploycrs (irts stop increasesin the unemployment rate (with sieic diflerence laying ofI newworkers andthen begin recalling thosework- in timing). they may hide increasesin long-tcrm unen- ers mostrecently laid olt. This helpsto reduceunemploy- ployment during certain periods of the businesscycle. For ment of short and medium duration. Those workers who instance. early in a recession,when there is exiensive joh had becomeunemployed carl> in the downturn often have loss, the largenumber of nesihsunemployed may actually the least skills andthe least seniority. and it typicalls re. lower these measurces.It is nor until the number of newly quires a sustainedperiod of recosery Ion thensto obtain unemployed begins to decline as a proportion of the total eniployment that averageduration measuresbegin a sustainedrise Sim- Thus, there is generally a time lag beiween when the ilarly. dunng recoveries. the numberof newly unemployed unemployment rate peaksand when the number of long- may begin to decline first. putting upward pressureon the term unemployed peaks.The natureof thai lag. howeser. mean and median durations Thus, the long-term unem- has changed The following showsthe number of months ployed needto be examined directly. the high in long-duration unemployment followed the peak unemployment rate in the businesscycles since 1948: Duration is key to jobless rise Table I comparesthe number of newly unemployed (less Uneniplsied/5 fltenplosed 27 Pet iar ,se f sunsd ,s r i.s-t-c ,,d ,i- than 5 weeks) to total unemployment since1979 The number of personsin the two long-duration categoriesis also (949 (954 shown. Clearly, the newly unemployed are insufhcient to 195# account for the dramatic rise in overall joblessness.Since 1961 1979,the averageincrease in-the newly unemployed neser (97: exceeded 13 percent in any year andhad totaled i2 percent 1975 through 1982.Dunng thesame period. total joblessness rose 1980 6 1982 0 Table1. Toal unemployedby selected duratlon, with percentchauge from prnvious pear. 1979-82 annual Through the early 1960's. (he number of long-term un- venrages employed peakedwithin I or 2 months of theunemployment l[iiu_ s tiwiustul rate peak. The recessionswere followed by relaissel; rapid Ch_. -s 79 -_191 tWO -8911982 and strong recoveries: the unemployment rate declined at htnt's Imut `Nine ,uMx tat.iNum hitn. . dunt., O____Iuto. Nhtp m.,gI chan...t."' least a percentagepoint. but generally much more. within 6 months of its peak The recessionssince 1970.however. T it s .. u'i37 1 n7.637 24A t a273 t 3 l068 291 have generally beenfollowed by slower recoveries, In 1971. for instance,the rate did not fall a full point from its peak 5 -2h . 2950 30 1329 11I 3u449j I 7 3.83 12 for a year anda half. After the 1980recession, the rate did not evenfall by as much as a full point (it recovered only 7it _ 7 1.052 490 1 a*22 t7 u1.7052 2 six-tenths of a point. Theseweak recoveries do not provide many job opportunities for peoplewho haveexperienced 27 _k-t considerable unemploantent Thus. the ranks of thosejob- *hGGut . 535 .-174 320 533 lis62i 7 1 776 52s lessat least 15 weeks havenot tendedto decline sufficiently 289

fast to offse thosewho, hecome unemployed just prior to 3. The percentdistribution ol the lonagtert uncmipli-ed theuneniployment peakand who subsequentlyjloin therank' prouidesthe demigraphic anti industry sakc-up if this of the long-term unemploycd. Movement out ol the sce grtup but is a, imiucha functitin iif the size tif the labor long-term unemployed (27 uceks and ovesrh very slow. force andthe unemployment rate of a group as it is a andhence this group sometimespeaks more than 3 month' function of the probability of becoming unemployed IS after the IS- eck-and-over group peaks. cekso.r More. Recovery speeds jobless decline after lag Demographic characteristics The 1983recovery was somewhatdifferent than those In "'gintd times." the long-durati(in unc~nploYedare c(tn- that preceded it While the fall in thejobless raie was fairly pioseddisprnportionaitly *.1black sorkers and vtorkers an- slow for thefirst half year. long-term johlessness continued der 25 years of age. rcilecting these groups' high to rise until June. This pattern was similar to the three unenplosuitnt rates As a share .I tle utteiigl-osed. tlh presious recoseries In the secondhalt. hoecscr. the r- 5 slng-terni ss cover gained momentum. andhb Decemberthe 12-nonth itblc arc mire likely to hb nialc andu-sr 25 sac'iii arc A' the co nnusonissisrsetis ssni it theserc unciployiment declinewa asterthan ans preious rc'.o- laiiinships utensils and iri miderate lcinplesit erysince the 19) -6I recessionVery long-terut jtioblesnes iithe he ol Ihei-erelationships is illustrated hb lo)unIIusr mt n also declined rapidly in the secondhall ti. 2.1 miilliin at One, uneniplised. menhase a higher prihiabilii I stas yeaeend.compared with a peakol 2.9 tilli-m. ing unempyised at Ilast 15 wck'. particiarls thiisc ;if The exteni of long-duratiin unnoiployntent dtorinothe primnewoirking ageand ilder. (See table3.1 Ihbi is dueiii most recent recession is demosnstratedhere hbs esitiparine seceraltaciors. including theirgrcater likelihiid ecsccptior data for June1983 with June1979. Even though the reces- thosein the oldest agegroupsi ti behpersitent in their job sion bottomed in November 1982(according to theNatitnal search.The lower duration Bureau of Economic Research)and unemployment began of unempliymunt nring s oune ssiirkcrsand c-nten is not a resulr it their muie successful to decline in January 1983.the Junedata are usedbecause joh searchRather. it is dueto their greatertendcney to end they representthe peakof unemployment of 27 or more weeks' duration. June1979 is usedbr comparison hbcausc a period of ob searchby withdraw ing from thejob nmarket. For instance. it is near the low point in unemployment betweenthe 1975 in 1979.27 percentof women age 25 to 54 who wereunemployed in I month had left and 1980recessions. Because data for specificworker groups the labor force thenext A courparable hgure fur personsage 16 to 24 was are not seasonally adjusted.the samemonth in ans 2 sears 25 percent. Hovcwer. only II percentol men 25 to 54 left being compared should be used. This is particularly im- the labor force from unemployment in any given month. portant in analyzing long-duration unemployment, which (For 1982.comparable percentageswere 22 for women. 23 has a strong seasonalcomponent. A date betweenthe 1980 and 1982 recessionswas not chosenbecause the recovery for youth. and8 for iten.) For older unemployed persons.the high probability of from the former recessionwas so weak. particularly in re- long-term unemploymentreflects the panicularly low chance gard to long-term joblessness. that it could hardly be used as a companson betweenrelatisely good andbad times In of hnding a job for thosew ho do persistin their job search An unemplosed man age 25 to 54 hada fact. long-term joblessnessin mid-1979 vias half of what it 50-pereeni better chanceof finding a ob in 1979than did one age55 and was at its lowest point in 1981. over. Esen when mans prinre-working agemen wereout No single statistic adequatelyreflects the extentof long- of work during the 1981-82 recession.they still stood a term unemployment experiencedby different labor force 25-percent better chanceof hnding a job in 1982than their groups. For this reason.three tspesof measuresare used older counterparts. which addressdifferent aspectsof the problem.

Tabte2. Pernentchange in unempioyment'between I. The long-term unemployed asa proportion of a group's renessuonpeak and pevious Iow, 1954 to 1982 total unemployed answersthe question. "'Ifa personw as I''- usmwUnenpctw imp rtitticed unemployed, what was his or her likelihood of hating Pleakiau taut1 llama. n nk beenjobless at least 13 (or 27) weeks?' ufemletitml atamr, a.inate A-eat 7 -. i t 246 3ai 2. The long-term unemployed asa proportion of a group's 1i5t 4 XS 94650 labor foree combinestwo factors-the likelihood of being '9'538 . 02 297 471 unemployed and the likelihood of the unemployment Iis soX s; art 191 92 266 466 reaching long term. A group could havea high proportion mrs tm 269 n3o 19r0 43 1i7 tAt of long-term unemployed undermeasure I lahosei but 1932 53 iii 1t4 have a low unemployment rate. for example. per- (See. iirt-n1eat-it aisste:I tin sonsage 55 andover in column 4. table3.) 290

The situation for blacks is somewhatdiflerent. The prob- in construction were8 times a lkely and thiisein durable ermof long-duration unemployment f(sr blacks is a result ginids. 9 times In primary sise.tl dIargel, sel. a w-srkes of their higher prtbability (Iof ecoming unemployed in the was nearly 210times as likely is he jolelcss tsr 15 (sir 271 hrst place. Becausethe likelihood of reaching 15 for 271 weeks as 4 yearsearlier Nearly three-lfurshs tif all jishless weeks of unemployment, oncejobless. is roughly Ihesame workers in this industry hadbeen jsil-ss at IcVle15 wceks for blacks and whites (columns 5 and6. table3t. thelabor and s if If werejob-lss utore than tine half sear. 1hcsc force differences (columns 7 and81 are priiportionate to the hgurcs demnisstraic the combined effects sofh-lh cyclical white/black difference' in their unentployment rate'. In both andstruclural prshlems in theernphiy 'nient siluanionin steel. 1979 and 1982.blacks were from 2 io 3 times a, likely to 11should aJsBshbe ntcd thatauti manufacturing esperienced be long-teri jobless as were hites. riughbv thc samea' a marked improsexnent in its uncslplisyicensituaitssr during the relationship for overall unemployment. the first half sif 1983.The sing-terntduratsin figuresshutn Variations by industry foerJune 1983.a hadia' hiesare. a.toalf repsc, ni - 535 percent imprtisimentsn ocI fchrsuas.site indusirsswtrst The statstics by induirs shot th e lectoof therecession nisihr 1hesc deselspientis miake s fearer 'sh. prissie trst dramaticall) In 1979.there was little difference among working agc men 125-54 Near--slds *Icrc hardest hii hi industries in the probability of a worker becoming unemn- sing-term unsniplhmnieni 1 hcsectIt1 acctonicilstir ihdl l pnlied for a long inte. Ihis probabilify was generally be- the ageand salaryenph.ol stix dirahlc givid ax,d cien- tween I and 2 percentfor 15weeks or more and ahout0.5 stiuction in 1979. cesnsparedfith inlaisne-third ofsuage percent lor27 weeksandi er. Bs 1983.there, eredramaiti and salaryempl-iinsexi in the sercsco-fxdaeint.-sctir difference' in the long-term unempiynmentsituation among A jish liveJra' mIsc ikely ts reosainuneusplssed the major industry groups. Financeand ser ices continued for long ficriids than was a joh leascr or a labsr Isrce to experience relatively low levels of long-term joblessness. entrant This makes sense.gisen the ssluntar, naturesit a although the levels weretriple those in 1979 But somesif quit and the muremarginal iii niarkescois itneni oI. en- the changesin other industry statisticswere striking. niosi tranisas a griup ,Mivreiserrjob usvcrsare likels tshasc notably the cyclically sensitive construction and durahle come frisoxthe cyclically sensinisc esnids-producing sectiir goods industries. Between Junei1t 1979and 1983. jofhlocrs hadrisen Irons While about 4 percentof the civilian labor force wa one-half to alnsossthree-isurths of thesing-terem obles unemplised at least 15weeks in June1983. more than7 percentof the construction anddurable goodslabor force Work experience data hadreached that level. And while the averageworker was The duration measures discussed thusfar comefrom the 5 times as likely to have been unemployed more than 6 responsesto the monthly CunrentPspulation Survey que- months in June 1983compared to 4 yearsearlier. workers tionnaire. Another measureof unemploynent duration oh-

Table 3. Tie long-term unemployedby aeleeted charauterisfics,June 1979 and June 1993, not eausonally adjusted

witness s tU. Mit" 1 .. h Isata,u. u-stolof 77 I..astol

iota J1an eI.. a..ta it, trine "aIatsas,,tiivo'| ' si enineg sat tome sangnata Jane Junedunn anne Jane a unt aunt jaunt Jafuanandan JoneJ~e Jane1 dounTneJut t dune __1171 1983 1919 ol 3 19791 1i 17911s3 19 128 1g 1g aJn I

T.,la 6235 11.570 1 06 A1^7 17 ^ 381 1 ° 39 103 o V,0o oj2; 262|7 9 216 2 s 10 103 5Aen ~~~~~~~~263 6 3 60 2 93 21 42 9 *6 55 6X 26: 193 62 5 3 3 '0 53160 Men tuna3V 5 072 tsa 507 1a 9 27 I as *: at2i 1 ' 5 't5 5

161019p-5 203^~~,~125.27 135 313 S7 IS 2 3 2 71^ X 2 59 ^{ 5 91 5 Wont' nasar2 3472 5 760 5 2a3 sat2 3 5n is a 3'ita 2ta3 s 2a 33a t 55ussis*zoa n w363 7n5 i 129 3 32 9 5 9 s 9 2at t 9 73 293 n S 33t 6li 2 7 -71 66135

1an 21 in593 2733 9 sin22 3t in265 as33 3 i i257 53 It 3 n 21 2 is I Hlsp-cqngi 432 e93 70 240 162 256 1 I 3 6 65 5 I 26 155 60 173 5 3 0 5 3 5 5 Cn-isaur-un be 919 ta tat ta a 7s a7 - 32 2a2 7 0 26ns 5 Illi st2 M-4me CI. n6n2 2'sas 3s71,63n3 2,6s6i 33n 72 a as finu-u1ag46an 99ins na n221Iot n3 t 2n, a s n I25 2nn 258a34 s6 ma s5 naI ft ni anI.3its it tnt3 t an 2aa an Mm', nbg-~ 61 7 .602 1,2,93 2X2Q2 03X3413 7 JuOsss2nan as an 314tb95 n is nn5 as7322 3 61at * 03 1 03 635 3 7 I X17 lotawicn77Nnr - 1 sat3 at na a3 t so3 i 5 nn tw2433 nt 5 tn > an332 1 n2 ^ tn at 6. a.3t-9 3b 62 n o1;5 2it 9 2 at5922 3 a a 73 a-a72 a5 EEnna n- goosi .3ta an2m annsn matin66 ansin lat9 n nn a tnat i 44ttat 5s4 |s0 as ta ant Aat.ox 2036 T73 I ",' 333^25 66 6. 1I 81 "1 75us 75 tt73 in1326533 at 5_ a7 ins3 tan422 N..' W glls3 5 27 498 12 436 221 41760 139 2 , 'a 61 303 78337 1 _ 3 4 ' S2 291

tamable frnmthe ct-s comesProm rer.onscs frIni a set nI s-pplementalquesinins ankedeach March regarding the Tsble 4. PropotIon of unemployed who experlenced at rc- least 15 meeks of unemployment du-ing 1979ant 1982. by spnndents workexperience during thepritir calendarvyar. ea race.and Hispanic origin Each measurehas advantagesand disadvantages.The du- 1 6 r . -,".n .: ratinn measurefrom the mnnthly ct's relalcsin a singic' canacnaiou t5-nIt. an mar 207xn-a- am -n conoinuniusspell nif unemploymnnt. shdlethe Marchsup- n' 1982 19is _t? plement counts the total weeksof unemplniymntnicer the loan 334 *9 6 3 7 2r5 vMn 3549 s- it 9 12s course of a year regardlt-ssnil thenumnber *-s Nspll l'he Wet, 33 526 133 26 March data. therefore. understatethe duratinit nil uneni- Ban' 4r r 62 24 361 KOsvannonqec 344 516 ill litz pluynnet r spellsthat bvgin henire. in c-niinuc alter. a Werner 35 4*313 123 2 6 calendar year. The monthly sursey. hy cnnrasl. prnides wnlir 101 an*.33 iii 145 inurcreliable esnianesnil unctipliina nt pinninril h~attis t s1.an-r :. .an'7 I In' t n idicv-nsi entail theprInblerts nI recall assetiated W,tin-urk experience questi,.ns. lio- eser.-the -unihhls niks ntis alsin .i onennptlnn.tt.cnt in 1l82. this liturt is higher hail tine understate theduratinin nit nemph..liNitm vhen ii in buokeii ligure lniril Ilic minsihle (Is ln els iu it C.im, aII bs a bril perriodnoll epl intentir laborIn cireinilnail i slnlls nI unienimplinnestl I hi prnp.rinnnin iitnttlilnllnv.Nl '7 While neitherthc ninnlnhl northe annual unirk cperncnte seekn innlinogcr isscncreln liilvcd hs dhe mlineratile ll the data nnduratnonltlnblesness are -ithonluimiitaltnn.nhis Martchsupplement qusesillnnanr-- th hAlt sear rpen,i adl c.inhinnnted.they proside a Wairlythnrinugh n ic ni Ihe psib. wnlll in intnrelsthin the parrntnlan ealendalarslnt lem. FI-ira cyclical persptlic, the niiinthlyuRrscy is gel crally hetter To assessthe estent nif the prnbletinn an W\'1111h1 siR1 I-lOi.R I -,lsl-l.-tsisi-Wn partn the snirnal individual basis.the strk experience quesitinnaire i qunie lunntiimn ot .amarkete i innt.vlins-te jniic-hlesies ctan helplul. In this case.uneniplinnanoent durani.on nl.r 1982stIl hase pnitesundod nisqscnia tinrtltc odindual and lainl- he compared no 1979.a year nlWrelanisely i-t unenipliny- Itnanial. en inmnal. and cien phssnal. The 1981-82 ment. rece in rsuticd in lends nil lung-lrin urtnimplnskstm I4 Data Irom the stork expericoce nabulationsdennstrate higher than asN esperienced since the Great Depr-ssinn. much the samedemographic patternsas the mntilhly sur- The hardest hit s(irkers sere one. shin typicalls stork neys. In 1982. being male andheing black eachadded 1I1 in cvicalls scnsinsecindusiries and sthi tend tin per.seere percentagepointsnntheprnpiirniino~l hnnsejnhns-lincks in their jtb scarch Ratial minnrilies. shosvenserall jih. or more in eachgroup. (See table 4.) In other sords. the lessnessis extensive. experience a similarly large shareof poportnion of black women andwhile menjobless this long long-term unemployment. was about 10 points higher than the losest grmup.whine Long-term unemploitment isa cntical policy areanot only women. while the proportion of black men was 20 poinot during recessionsbut alsinduring expansiins. s henthe fi- higher. Hispanic men and women experiencedling-term cusshills to thehard-core. r sIructurally. uneniploed. This joblessness in proportions belseentheir shitc and black aspectnit the unemplnmnent picture r ceinesles atientinn counierparts. than the overall jinblcss ratemr Itiel huthears direcils in Hallfall unemployed personrreponed atIcast 15seeks the questionnit econninii hardship b

- f 'InTci7L 5- TIThr-s r of dau in nhiCu.nn Pe1pylttinin Su-n.n m-nnhin-- ic mnienidnranin AhiiiniiLn d RiSinesx. lJ. 1 I i. gg 23-i1 ial.u, * .svi ho-ushiidd. -.dintujd hhi huncu n 1 h, (an-u-.t -ThcI I-9 the Bhitu of kulr Snuinune .si..in i.. in. tijid n.niie sin di. van-in ta -1 1 i tied. .J idenini nix grexti--nn his TThem rnuaiiiinniIitrheuhal th-eco On. duIaII...... intdur- ewtninwo ruinin dtinsmstdn Rinrind S sn-nnen. n i. -chnlmin - .n n PDI'ynir-h nine .c -nn1i und ei idne- n vIi i m nansiia O-usand dtun...enii jpbl-e nineininninienni ilissin Ltin ,S.i.t rtr ninin vi itnn1 dC.i .stai March 1977. Pp 71-72 ca nt. incu cdisinpnrvin nineneinuhnini en tinev-tiinnine lolrenshnnhlnunisape edJ scekncPrenrnidunanwcninninurn 'Fo diatinnm of tire i isnintnd in oaasningthe dunainonni - in ninnciompinnosdb no coe <>u it arahin uremPlonmoi. ie N-nan Binsrm. PPrr.nngnine -i-n ol uw-mplgn- cimmidens-ua StLneak io 151il f 1umrt nl _ .np 292 Representative SOLARZ. Just a few more questions. Do you have any figures which would indicate what the poverty rate is or the percentage of the population below the poverty line in the United States compared to the other industrial democracies? Mrs. NORWOOD. There is an official OMB approved definition of poverty and it's calculated by the Census Bureau. I'm not sure what there is available for other countries, but my guess would be that the definition would be quite different. One of the problems that we have in discussing this whole issue of income adequacy in the labor market is the judgments that need to be made about what we're talking about. We have median income and you can divide income distributions into thirds and you can divide it into quarters and you can divide it into six pieces. The question is really what does it all mean and where does that judgment about the level of poverty really apply? Is it the same in this country as in Spain, for example? I don't know, and that's very difficult to put together. Representative SOLARZ. Do you have comparative figures on productivity rates on a sectorial basis in the United States in relation to the productivity rates in other industrial democracies? Mrs. NORWOOD. We do have a program of comparison of major broad sectors of the economy of the rates of productivity change in this country and other countries, the major countries. Representative SOLARZ. Could you make that available to me? Mrs. NORWOOD. Surely. Representative SOLARZ. I would appreciate it. [The information referred to follows:] OUTPUT PER HOUR IN MAUFACTURING 12 COUNTRIES, 1960-85 Average Annual Conpound Rates of Change

Country 1960-85 1960-73 1973-85 1973-81 1982-85 1983 1984 1985

United States 2.7 3.2 2.2 1.3 4.7 5.8 4.1 4.4

C'Anaadd 3.4 4.7 1.9 1.6 4.4 6.4 3.7 3.2 .apan 8.0 t~z 10.3 5.6 5.5 5.8 5.4 7.0 5.0 CD IBelgiun 6.5 6.9 6.0 6.4 4.9 6.6 3.5 4.6 I~enmrk 4.8 6.4 3.0 4.0 1.3 2.1 1.0 .7 France 5.5 6.5 4.4 4.4 3.8 4.3 3.9 3.3

C..rrrany 4.8 5.8 3.7 3.5 5.0 5.8 3.7 5.6 Italy 5.4 7.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 2.6 5.4 3.1 Netherlands 6.2 7.4 5'.O 4.6 6.8 6.8 10.7 3.1 I1ocway 3.2 4.3 2.0 1.6 3.1 5.9 2.6 .9 Sweden 4.7 6.4 3.0 2.2 4.9 7.7 4.4 2.7 United Kingdom 3.5 4.3 2.7 1.5 5.1 7.3 4.5 3.4

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics 294 Representative SOLARZ. Now the unemployment rate among blacks is obviously considerably higher than among whites. What do you attribute that to? Mrs. NORWOOD. There are a lot of reasons, some of which are rather difficult to pin down. It's quite clear that there is a geographic problem. Blacks tend to be concentrated in particular areas of the country and there may not be jobs in those areas. I believe, by the way, that we are going to see in the future much more disparity from one geographic area to another than we have in the past, and I think that some of our black population will suffer from that. We find that black women are working and have worked. Their labor force participation rates are somewhat higher than those for white women, although they have a higher unemployment rate, as well. I notice that this month the black women have a higher unemployment rate than the black men. The black population is also more likely to be discouraged. They are disproportionately represented among the discouraged workers and that's because they have a harder time, perhaps because of dis- crimination, although we have laws which are supposed to prevent that. Another factor may be the kinds of opportunities for education and advancement that they have. It's quite easy to get discouraged if you're living in a poverty situation. We know that there are large numbers of black children who are living in single parent families and if you look at the women maintaining families, 1 in 3 of them are living in poverty. So I think it's a whole host of things, including education, training, the kind of economic circumstances in which they are living, and the areas in which they live. Representative SOLARZ. Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman. Senator SARBANES. Thank you very much, Congressman Solarz. Mrs. Norwood, I want to follow up on one line of questioning that Congressman Solarz was pursuing. I'm looking at two charts that you submitted with your testimony, chart 1, the unemployment rate of all civilian workers seasonally adjusted, and chart 7, the long-term unemployment seasonally adjusted in each instance from 1948 to 1987. What strikes me is the long-term unemployed. You run two lines, 15 weeks and over and 27 weeks and over. It seems to be a worsen- ing problem, in terms of its cyclical movement, if you compare it with the unemployment rate of all civilian workers. At least that's the first impression that I derive from these charts. For instance, if you look at the unemployment rate of all civilian workers, the level now is below even the peaks of some earlier recessions, but if you look at the long-term unemployed, both the 15- week and the 27-week, that's not the case. This seems to be a growing problem. In other words, at an earlier time here obviously long-term unemployment would go up when a recession occurred and unemployment generally went up, but it seemed to move back down again, if not in tandem, at least something approximating it. It's no longer doing that, apparently. What is the explanation? 295 Mrs. NORWOOD. I think what is happening is that is is going down, but it had gone up to such extraordinary levels in recent years that it has not come down to low levels. As you can see, the peaks in the 1973-75 recession were very high and then of course in the 1981-82 recession it was even higher. But you're quite right, there is a difference. Senator SARBANES. Now the long-term unemployed would be without unemployment insurance, would they not? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes, probably, although it depends on the extent of extended benefits, but yes, in general I think you're right. Senator SARBANES. Do you have figures on the number of the unemployed who are drawing unemployment insurance? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes, we do. In the regular programs there were about 3 million in February. Senator SARBANES. So what percent of the unemployed draw unemployment insurance? Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, if you look at it as a proportion of total unemployment as we measure it in the current population survey, it's about 36.2 percent. Senator SARBANES. 36.2. Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. Senator SARBANES. My recollection is that not too long ago that figure was over half, or closer to 60 percent; is that correct? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. Senator SARBANES. Has the percentage of the unemployed drawing unemployment insurance dropped significantly over the last decade? Mrs. NORWOOD. Over the last decade, yes, it has. It was 67.2 percent in 1975 and it dropped shortly thereafter. Representative SOLARZ. If the gentleman will yield just for one question on this point. Why is it that approximately two-thirds of the unemployed are not getting unemployment compensation? Mrs. NORWOOD. Partly because of the definitions. For example, we count as unemployed new entrants to the labor force and reentrants to the labor force as well as people who have lost a job and left a job. If you took those claiming unemployment compensation as a proportion of the people who have lost their jobs and who would be most likely to have developed their eligibility, then the proportion is up to 68.9 percent. Representative SOLARZ. Well even there that would indicate close to a third of the people who were presumptively eligible are not getting benefits. Mrs. NORWOOD. That is correct. Representatives SOLARZ. Why is that? Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, there may be a variety of reasons, including, of course, the fact that they may have already have used up their eligibility. Senator SARBANES. I now want to ask about how we relate the unemployment figures to other economic indicators. Over the last few days the papers have had one story after another that new orders for manufactured goods are down, retail sales are down, and the indicators are down. 296 What is your view on the correlation between those figures and the unemployment figure? Are those figures ahead of the unemployment figures? In other words, if there is a slowdown in economic activity, which those figures would seem to indicate, is the unemployment rate likely to catch up in the next month? Are the other indicators in a sense ahead of the cycle, or is your figure clearly a contrary signal, because coming as it does in a certain timeframe relative to those figures? The unemployment rate is not going down, it's staying stable, but these others are going down. To that degree it's a contrary indication. Mrs. NORWOOD. The figures to look at in our data are the employment figures. They would relate more specifically, I think, to those you mention. Our data are for February. The data that are out there on all these other economic issues are either for January or for the last quarter of the year. So some of them could be indicating a change that could be going on. If you look at the specifics of our data, you find that in the goods producing sector things are either unchanged or somewhat down. Employment in the mining industry is doing poorly. It's had a negative employment pattern; small changes, but nevertheless for the last several months jobs have been down. It's lost 150,000 jobs over the year. Manufacturing is not gaining employment. Manufacturing has however, gained hours in February and that's quite important. There could be several explanations for that. One is that factory hours are an important leading indicator, or they have been in the past, and this could mean that things are going to get much better in manufacturing. On the other hand, it could well be that employers are finding it cheaper and somewhat more sensible to expand hours until they see whether in fact the durable orders and other data hold up. That is, they are being extraordinarily cautious before taking on a lot of new employees. In retail trade we have had significant employment increases in the last 2 months, but before that there was not a large change, and it's quite clear that some of that at least is because we did not have as much hiring during the holiday season in the retail trade area as we had in recent years. So we may have a little bit of exaggeration of the seasonality in those numbers. And the retail trade data may look better than they actually are. As Tom Plewes says, the weather has been unusually good. So we have had fairly good construction employment, but that may mean that we are borrowing from the springtime expansion and we may have moved some construction employment forward. There has also been a great deal of discussion in the literature about the possible effects of the tax laws on the labor market and on the economy in general. It's quite clear that some big durable goods purchases occurred at the end of the year that would normally have occurred in the first couple of months of 1987. People bought cars, for example, and other big ticket items that would give them some sales tax deductions which they are not going to get now in 1987. 297 It's not all clear, however, that there was much of a shift otherwise. But there is a lot of discussion about it, and I don't know quite how to assess it. Senator SARBANES. Let me ask you about chart 1 again, the unemployment rate of all civilian workers seasonally adjusted, 1948 to 1987. It is clear from that that the trend line on the unemployment rate has been moving up. In other words, it gets higher with each recession, and very high in fact in 1982 when it went into double digits for the first time since before World War II. Then it comes back down, it doesn't get down anywhere near where it used to be. We are now in the 5th year of a recovery. We had very rapid growth in 1984 but growth has been somewhat sluggish since. While we've had some growth, the rate is not far below what it was in the downturn and not in the recovery period. I'm also interested in the fact that the unemployment rate seems to move up much more rapidly than it subsequently comes down. If you take the view, which I'm beginning to take, that the economy is to some extent moving on thin ice and there is cause for concern-for example, in terms of the overhang of debt and the trade figures-then even the CPI figure for 1 month, which is not something we ought to project trends from, is of some concern. Is it accurate to say that the unemployment rate, once we go into a downturn, can move up very quickly? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. I think we have had experience of that going all the way back to 1949 if you look at that chart. Any time when it does move up it rises steeply. Senator SARBANES. In 1975, I guess it was. Do you have the month-by-month figures for the recession of 1975? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes, I do. We need to start in 1973. It was in the 4 to 5 percent range and went up very rapidly to 8.6 percent and then to 9 percent really by May 1975. So it was about 4 percentage points. Senator SARBANES. And over what period of time? Mrs. NORWOOD. We are just trying to look up the National Bureau of Economic Research's peak, but the peak of the series is a little bit different. November 1973 was the NBER peak, and the unemployment rate was 4.8 percent. It reached 9 percent in May 1975. That was a situation where it stayed fairly level for many months after the NBER had identified a peak and then took off very sharply. Senator SARBANES. My recollection is that it ran up very fast in about a 6-month period. Would that be correct? Mrs. NORWOOD. That's right. Senator SARBANES. Now I take it in 1982 it was not quite as sharp, but was fairly sharp nonetheless. In fact in all of these recessions, even if you go back, you find a very sharp runup in the unemployment rate. Literally in a matter of months we can go from an unemployment rate that everyone regards with considerable satisfaction to one that is a matter of deep concern. Would that be an accurate statement? Mrs. NORWOOD. Oh, yes, I think that is quite correct. Senator SARBANES. Well, my time is up. Congressman McMillan. 298 Representative MCMILLAN. Thank you. Pursuing that just a little further, it strikes me that if you look back over the years, the 1950's forward, I think we all acknowledge that the domestic economy is under particular stress, particularly in the last say decade and it seems to be increasing because of a lack of competitiveness if you want to call it that in certain basic industries, and we can identify them. It seems to me that we are in a different ball game compared to earlier years in the post-World War II period. Would you agree that that kind of challenge that we face is likely to produce a proportionately higher level of long-term unemployment in impacted industries, take steel, automobiles, textiles, furniture, and you could go on and on in which you have workers that have been in those industries most of their working lives and this is a major disruption in their work life in contrast to other industries where there may be a much higher degree of mobility. I think it gets back to the suggestion you made earlier that the challenge we face is targeting our response to that, to those impacted areas of the economy rather than simply viewing it in a macro fashion in which we may not get to the underlying particular cause of the problem. Is that a reasonable way of looking at this, do you think? Mrs. NORWOOD. It depends, of course, on what the issues are that we are trying to address. When you look at particular groups of people who have difficulty in the labor market you want to look at what their characteristics are and what troubles they are finding. That I think, is very important and those groups are very different, one from another. The more macroeconomic problem also needs to be addressed. We are experiencing now a tremendous restructuring by industry of our economy and that makes it a little bit difficult sometimes to compare what we are doing now with what happened before. History is not going to repeat itself in quite the same form. For example, if you look at the change during the current recovery and compare it to the recovery that followed the recession in the 1970's, you find that we created nearly three times the number of jobs in manufacturing in the 1970's, after that recession, than we have in a similar number of months in the current recovery. So that's a very real shift and I believe, it will result in, and has resulted in, some improvement in productivity rates in manufacturing because output generally has held up in manufacturing. So there are some very real changes that are occurring. We also have a number of industries which even during the recovery, have been losing employment. Some of that is because of technological change that's occurring in those industries and some of it is for other reasons. Representative MCMILLAN. Well, I think it's rather astounding that we have been able to reduce the unemployment rate at a time that we know that there are severely impacted industries. It's occurred in my own district, for example, where we have a very low unemployment rate, one of the lowest in the country, and yet I can identify 10,000 textile jobs that we've lost in 5 years within that district, and my district is not as heavily impacted as some around it. 299

But then you go to Louisiana or go to Texas and look at the unemployment rates and it seems to me that the aggregate figures are perhaps masking secular problems and focus. Yes, we do have to deal with both, but we are going to be more successful if we are successful in isolating the particular problems and addressing them. Mrs. NORWOOD. That's quite true. Specific industries have often been located in particular areas, with their feeder industries around them, which tends to intensify differences between areas. You have the high-technology area, and you need only look at the State of Texas where you've got one labor market in Houston and one around the Mexican border, and another one in Austin. There are very real differences going on all around this country. Representative MCMILLAN. Shifting gears just a little bit. One of the things we are going to be asked to take a look at will be an adjustment in the minimum wage. Do we have reliable statistics going back over time as to the proportion of the work force that is being paid at the minimum level? wage Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes, we do have data on that. We published an article recently in the Monthly Labor Review and we'll be glad to submit that information for the record. Representative McMILLAN. I think that would be helpful. [The article referred to follows:] 300

[From the Monthly Labor Review, February 1986] Hourly paid workers: who they are and what they earn More than half of all wage and salary workers were paid by the hour during 1984; median earnings were $5.95 per hour, but a closer look reveals many variations among groups

EARLF. MELLORAND STEVEN E. HAUGEN

The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes several different Who is paid by the hour data series on the hourly earnidgs of workers, each high- Altogether, 92 million American workers were paid lighting different worker and job-related characteristics. All wages or salaries in 1984. and 54 million of them were paid but one of these series are based on surveys of payroll and at hourly rates. The method of remuneration received by other records of business establishments. Data from these workers is closely linked to the nature of jobs held. For series contain considerable industrial detail. In contrast, the example, 80 percent of all part-time workers were paid by remaining earnings series is based on a nationwide sample the hour, compared with 54 percent of the full-time workers. survey of households, and provides detailed information on The fact that women were more likely than men to work part hourly earnings by the demographic and social characteris- time is reflected in the larger proportion of women who were tics of the wage earners.' (See the appendix on page 26.) paid by the hour-62 percent versus 56 percent (table 1). Moreover, the earnings obtained in the Current Population The same explanation applies to younger versus older Survey (cP's) of households represent only hourly wages workers. The proportion paid hourly rates was highest for paid to the employee-stripped of any effects of tips, teenagers-89 percent-and lowest for those in the central premium pay for overtime, bonuses, and commissions. prime age groups, comprising the 35 to 49 population. Even More than half of all wage and salary workers are in this for those aged 70 and oser. the proportion was far below category. that for teenagers and young adults. The high proportion of young workers paid by the hour reflects their tendency to work both part time and part year, and in occupations less L, I- Mfli. ,J Soven L. H-upnnerr -ons isu in tDvson of l.,wi.sywn, red UnltmpIlseoni Anityrie. 01icr touptoywno red likely to be salaried even when they are employed all year V ..., .1..,,, 9.,...,, ul oA.yl.hr 7 orf Eply-lLd in full-time jobs 301

T"9 1. EmpWoysdwig. nd- sy W.Mpapidlt,,rtyrnts by MWO3d uet.171.4 I nnual nag pk6.-a h h.l

_~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~864u_6 __6 - a _ _ T _. I T_A | %8 8

TWA,S"_ .nfo...... 9,i002Q1el 743 let...... 2633 s7. 8I77 ...... 077114 322 1I6,90 W69 ...... 24844 577 848 2246S 872 Wv- Ot ...... :...... , s627 310 7 228i 33 3277 2.765 7,.47 87.7 Ag. i1 -ON 6274s 011 766 1s b Is tn ...... 6242 3,777i 22I KOD ~~. 2.767 rzs 7l9 7.78M 5382 2.76% 757, 778 ...... 5,02, I776 "I 35 b 27 _ ...... 73766' 5.115 638 7.;Uz N.61C426 3.772 523 .0'.Y.788b797968 ...... 7s43s5`7 M'.8 5.797 276 Sub391- ...... I.917 ...... 8.787 2274 4t 565 Zsb - o...... a21 sIAM ...... 3277 7,766 52 3287 454 62375.691 3,77 2.832 .687 ...... 57, 475 s573 66847i7267 I.il7 7615 si 6 Y_ ...... o,7, 1206 5 8 3 ...... 337 7394 528 *s2 670 ...... 345 200 S26 49 , 72d...... HD...my ...... -d 7366 77252 11.91. 107 OD3 730 YO9 FoI-, ...... 876 ...... 7.8 2 402, 472 S b361'.- ...... 55 5471 2.7 bl806 ...... 6. I 6928 466 37, 538 ...... 31.23B s30 6*07858856, ...... 3,732 725O67 61 578 49 ID a h ...... 2D77 an *7s6 512) 279 s7s lI V5...... e279 553 ...... 7253 7,727 270 293 227 228 420 "a7 a,48 597 207 278 040. 67664167 nd~q 8668 ...... 20e17 4,641 223 P. , -_...... 4,797278 9,.44 3,04 743 9314 755 873 1779 2c8 1...... 2sn so, 2207 208 8500 EAn*,.W*T ,S PPIa~~~~~n 6~ ...... 29,135 72.277 74,8 3s2 T0 nd _S wvn ...... 35AM s226s 4.152 742 780' 57i 9AIG 76277 M6 299 476 I.439 3,787 5285 45I 740 32 Y 2 743so 7,476 729 s - ...... 773 ...... 13.OGG5248 94,8 6,77 347 780 S-P - --b l ...... I.008 75 P u r ...... Yn 677 3 025 707 so07 O pr.a ,3e . .6904804...... 4. 7 3.772.866 8c 03-79 5,73 II77 a6 9628 36 71.18 10224 964 8227 7,742 776 762 757 807 M w vp ,, . ou n : .ea.., ...... 16213 71.6 *,XS5 13,6"7 9721 3746 843 833 870 7.77 I=6 325 4982 1,712s2 sa7 3251 I 2.85I 2M7,120 23332527 N380I M9937DI 87.6 7 n = 7 6 ...... '29 357s 720 3A7 3215 657 832 800 913 888.6 bi,, ...... 1.776 7.240 236 54 8 IV2 746 57 6846 7 - m._W IDW.:7640..w-r~i b 6648856III .1 VdhSOD- V arDgb l

- Among while workers, women were more likely than For full-time employees. the more hours people ork, the men to be paid hourly rates, while the reverse was true- more likely they are to be in a salaried rather than in an albeil 6o a lesser extent-for blacks and Hispanics. The hourly paid position. About three-fifths of the men who following tabulation shows, however, that the situation is usually worked exactly 40 hours a week were paid hourly. quite different when numbers are reported for full- andpart- compared with just over two-fifths for thoseuorking 45 t0 time workers. 48 hours andone-fifth for thoseworking 60 hours or more. This patterawas similar for women working full time. Pereni pmid h-,url rules The occupational distribution of hourly paid workers Full itme Parn time shedsfurther light on this relationship As shown in table I, Men- omen Men Wmen fewer thanone-fifth of workers in executise. adminisiratise. White ...... 52.0 52.5 79.1 8t.2 andmanagerial occupations andabout one-fourth ol thise in Black ...... 68.3 64.3 77.5 77.3 professional specialty occupations werepaid hourly rates A Hispanic origin ...... 69.4 61b6 8O3 W47 substantial numbcr of empli!cr v in thes-occ,,pmlrisn pul in 302

long workweeks, with onte-quarterof the two groups (com- ers, helpers, and laborers were paid hourly wages. but fewer 2 bined) working 49 hours or mote a week. In comtrst, about than one-tenth put in 49 or momehours a week. nine-tenths of workers employed asmachine operators, as- The dat illustrate the inverse relationship between the semblers, and inspectors, and as handlers, equipment clean- number of hours usually worked andthe likelihood of being paid atan hourly rue. It is beyond the scope of this article. TM" 2. Median hawiy ann at wortara paId hourly however, to fully explain the nature of this relationship, atsby Ieeta hehrseterlatles, lNA anuwal awerages becauseinformation is not collected in the cps on several of the factors which may be involved. These include data on the oveutisneprovisions of the Fair Labor Standards Act, the provisions of collective bargaining agreements, the extent of nonpecuniary compensation derived from a job, and T alel ...... s es 1 121 tsoi productivity. w_...... I...... I...... GM ttM SAO EO...... I...... 5,3 1 121 413 m. W...... ,19 0.17 4M7 Median hourly earnings Median hourly AP earnings for people who were actually paid hourly rates in 1984 were S5.95-S7.27 for men and 'Sig, .S ...... 11, on &50on aOVu2.,...... 5.31SADs II' S5.08 for women. (See table 2.) It is important to under- 25t 291- ...... -.---..--...... 1.52 TS sm 3D C3I y ...... 123 ala3 stand thesignificance of what thesedata represent:Hourly 35Lt ._ ...... 1:57 048 ass 4aDaD"Y_alio-- ...... 7.17 earmingsdata amecommonly calculated for all workers son 45049t ...... 723 (wageand salary) basedon information on their weekly or V.54i ...... '23 9'65 sr.on annual eartings. These figures will be typically higher tan 115am t5I 5Sib5et ...... US il eibr4Y ...... would be the casefor those whose pay rate is hourly. For 65.8 ...... 3115 ss i0Y ...... 4M 42, example, the median weekly earnings of all workers putting in exacrly 40 hours a week-a majority of all workers-was $312 in 1984; whendivided by 40, this tims out tobe $7.80 PW4 n$ ...... s2 &40S1. an hour. The median hourly wage among workers actually rdA ...... [am o5 45.35WYsna 45t...... 520 110 paid by the bour andreported as usually working 40 hours `* ro ...... Gs ala2 41 Da ., ...... 713 Si U16ram a week was $6.95. This difference is to be expected, be- , 41sat...... 7A on4m 'a'sth...... 7.45 causethe weekly earnings data include components of earn- ODh ...... 7.14 ings beyond straight-time wages and many higher-paying 1,32ro SAOS jobs are salaried. lNtil dW ...... oa as The overall female-to-male earnings ratio for fuMl-time 723 '41 am 723am workers paid hourly rates-70 percent-is 5 percentage Am E_0 ..... 5.5 iond 5115 7.03 points higher than that associated with the medians in the S. T ...... 411 S7.1 weekly earnings series for all fuil-time workers (65 per- 3.26 TloanTIN_a ga_ o q...... 1. .... ,am cent). This finding may be explained by the more homoge- P5 i_ ...... s.s 43423 am neous universe for the hourly earnings data mentioned 2S5 _ggaSS sr4 ...... am Im above; dut is, male-dominated higher-paying occupations fbt 4 vmom ...... "Di 425 are more likely to be salaried. oPa bw_ W...... alt I2a 515 Between 1979 and 19F4, the female-to-male earnings B. 1 ...... 3. 720 S1t KEha".ai.est. . -...... ratio for hourly paid workers rose considerably for whites, W ...... S18 blacks, and Hispanics. whereas the black-to-white andthe F-~is try .4 WL ...... N.. i...... 7.51 7.77 ant Hispanic-to-white earnings ratios were virtually unchanged. (See table 3.) Regardless of race or ehnicity, the hourly S2 SmS 4.7 earnings of men rose by about 25 percent over the period hW lh to ...... "Os W %3...... and thoseof women about 40 percen the Consumer Price rho o~ a...... ift l an Index for Ail Urban Consumers rose 43 percent. &C. TJA GO.P..I..3...... Tii woep.S-a T I -.--- - Among groups, median o :rnndh and ...... n7 723 455 age hourly earnings ranged from COW~,4V .l ...... iro $3.64 for teenagersto highs in the $7.17-S7.37 range for ta 411 I511 Sli agegroups within the 30- to 54-year bracket in 1984.Men's 9.171.52 wages peaked atabout $10 an hour for those between 40 and [12U? 'it aa 72 54 years of age, while the peak for women-S5.81-was N.0 all1 on I4l not only much less, but also occurred at a younger age- among thosein their thirties. The female-to-male eamings lO,5.Si tWimih~ilW ratio, at about 90 percent for teenagers, declined with ageto the 45-to-49 group, androse thereafter. The higher ratios at 303

both ends of the age spectrum may stemfmom the fact that Table 3. Median hourty higher proportions earmings oT worklrs paid hourty of wage earners in these age groups arc rat.sbY "SX,vre., and Hiapan neigIn,1979-4 annual paid at or near the minimum wage. Hourly pay is wide-ranging among occupational and tn_ in- S ajin - - - dustry groups. Median hourly pay ranged from $4.08 for all service jobs to $9.42 among the professional specialty jobs. Tad ...... In the latter group, the median for men was 45..4..46 7.. t525755414 97745s5 a little more M. .. 573 527 a72 SAN 'M4 727 than a dollar higher per hour than that for women, a gap W::::: 366:: 47 535, 4D5 435 5750 6.7e much closer than the overall difference. 455ss7 574s 557 57 52 Among the major Wh ...... 552 3 .547 74 2 7.32 industrial groups, median hourly wages of both men and Waa, 7e5.. 42 * 43*36 I 6 529 women were highest in mining, construction, durable 47 445 5II 577 5-2 553 goods M 5 03s52 3 511 69 s6.27 manufactunng, and the transportation and public utilities God .7...... 6. 37425 423 4*2 47O 4*9 P group. Wages were lowest in retail trade, pnvate house- 4647...... 4 M I49O 513 52M 3N 455 468574 holds, personal services, entertainment andrecreation, so- 751 574 552 677 cial services, and agriculture. WO.7.n 345 354 475 44s 445 572

Earnings 667779.7447i ~~~~~6359636 54 745 36 96 distribution wh96. 62 547 6737 676 i 5Go 5 Clearly, median ...... 743 72 747 737 n 5 earnings do not tell the whole story. The HwIa.7.01 .. 727 747 757 760 7.3 7o7 median for two different groups could be similar; yet the St47-Iad : 523 96o3 5 5 7 962 646n distribution of earnings of onegroup may be tightly clus- ...... 526 47 52,6t 545967tss Wo~rnM ...... , Ad6 .,0 .725 ,t i777e 57 tered around as 1, aM.747.eo the median, while that for another group may IN...... 4 96.0. O_N7527 3 . be dispersed. Therefore, it is useful to look at distributions N.5...... t 43 655 9652 9546 72 525 as well. Table 4 shows the percent distribution of hourly wages for major demographic groups. Regardless of the About 13 percent of full-time wage earners made at least median, each demographic group has some people with $12-19 percent of the men and 4 percent earnings of less than$3 an hour andothers with asmuch as of the women- but fewer than 3 percent of part-time workers $15 or more. (It should be noted that for somepopulation earned this amount. Among workers putting in more groups, the extremes of the distribution may contain only a than 40 hours a week, the proportion was 15 percent-18 small number of sampleobservations.) The following dis- percent for men and 6 percent cussion focuses briefly on the likelihood of wage earners for women. Among receiving $12 an hour or more, the figure that is roughly the major occupational groups, 25 percent of both professional twice the overall median of $5.95, and on those earning at specialty workers and those in the precision production, or below the prevailing minimum wage of $3.35, which is craft, and repair group earned $12 an hour or a little more than half the median. Eachof thesehigh-paying more in 1984. At the lower extreme, 2 percent or fewer of and low-paying categories accounts for roughly one-tenth of those in sales; service (except protective service); and farm- all hourly paid workers. ing, forestry, and fishery jobs earned this much.

Receising $12 or more per hour. The likelihood of eam- Minimum and subminimum wage workers. The prevailing ing at least $12 an hour in 1984 was over 5 times as great minimum wage, which has been $3.35 per hoar since Janu- for men (about 17 percent) as for women (3 percert). The Ury 1981, was established by the 1977 revisions to the Fair proportion for white men was about half again as high as Labor Standards Act (FLSA)of 1938. About 4.1 million that for black men; among women, both whites and blacks workers were reported as earning exactly S3.35 an hour in were about equally as likely to earnthis amount (eachabout 1984, and 1.8 million were reported as eaming less than this 3 percent). Fewer than 2 percent of the workers under age amount. Together, these workers constituted about II 25 were in this higher per- paying category. Among workers 25 cent of all hourly paid workers. andover, the proportion rosefrom 6 percent for thosewith It is important to note at the outset that the presence of a only an elementary school education to 23 percent for those sizable group of hourly paid workers receiving less than the completing 4 or more years of college. Ai each level of minimum wage does not necessarily indicate widespread schooling completed, men were more likely than women to violations of the FLSA,as there are a number of exemptions earn$12 an hour or more. However, the disparity narrowed to its minimum wage provisions. These exemptions are at successively higher educational levels, as men not com- wide-ranging and include employees in outside sales work, pleting high school were more than 10 times as likely as low volume retail trade and service firms, and seasonal women 3 to earn this amount. Among those with 4 years of amusement establishments. high school or more, men were 5 times as likely as women For the most part, those earning $3.35 and hour or less to earn S 12 per hour or more (26 versus 5 percent). The ratio tend to be young. About 60 percent of those with these low s-as 2 to I among college graduates (31 sersus 16 percent) earnings were under age 25-one-third cre teenagers. 304

the fact thatwomen madeup adisproportionate Among teenagersalone, nearly 40 percentearned $3.35 or time. Given less. Persns 65 andover-while representing only 3 per- shareof part-time workers paid hourly rates (69 percent), cent of the total number of minimum wage earners-also those working part time accounted for almost 45 percent of had a relatively high probability of earningat or below all low-wage workers in 1984; men working pan time ac- $3.35, as nearly I out of 5 hourly paid persons in this age counted for about 21 percent. group earnedthis amount. (See table 5.) An examination of minimum wage workers by race and Nearly 15 percent of all women who were paid hourly ethnicity shows that only a slightly higher proportion of rates earnedthe prevailing minimum wage or below, which blacks than whites and Hispanics earned $3.35 or less. was double the proportion for men. These percentages, Nearly 14 percentof theblack population were in this earn- however, differed greatly according to whether the em- ings group, compared with II percent of both-Hispanics and ployee usually worked full or part time, as shown in the whites. following tabulation: Given thedirect correlation of educational attainment and Pereni al orbel-w $3.35 earnings, the likelihood that a personhad hourly earnings at or below $3.35 per hourdiminished with increased school- Bosh -enS Men Women ing. Among hourly paid workers aged 25 years and over Total ...... 11.0 7.5 14.8 Purt-timeworkers ...... 28.0 30.2 27.0 with less than 4 yearsof high school, 10 percent were low Fult-limeworkers ...... 5.2 3.5 7.6 wage earners,compared with 6 percent who finished 4 years 35to 39 hours...... 12.1 10.5 12.8 of high school, andless than 4 percent of those with 4 years 40 hours ...... 4.6 3.3 6.5 or more of college. 41 hoursor more ...... 3.7 2.4 8.5 Of the four major regions in theUnited States,the largest The number of part-time workers earning $3.35 or less, proportion of those ator below the minimum wagelived in at 3.9 million, was nearly twice the number working full the South(40 percent). Overall, 13 percent of all hourly paid

T.V A P lt dtrtlan 0 hourly "min9 0In padhourly os by I adarmetst. 19B4annual aages

1969994989 .89 * "M4o80 oM KM 05.28 7 m6 $42|20Lf9. 651629 h

TS "~~~~~m . pt94 OD2^9l987 2el7I262D3 9

T.W. le P. ~~~5944348.2 2. I". 45.3 1441 102. O. 417 MA 70 Or2 88.4 569424...... 4384 42.025 Z 44e"7 27;Esoono37.2 217164.se73 uii'I4' DM84 OM 3.482 S22 91454.4 -7zl2I. 2ee430 296 25 s -...... sa2le 27 1s37 44 94 144A 42.2 84 42 727 lIs 9SW 2O.VA0 4280 D 343 11.3 442 93 9 14 114432 4 5.32 488244 822B 4280 4.8 324 240 43 W5 GO8 88 3- 47 I 4 28VwatI4891 48 4 58 73 404 5 82 477 72 453 72 867

29 329 46 2 ...... I 6 4b 7 42423 , 3 433 84 32 30t 52 2 25w.a ...... 46 4287 22 174 185 477 427 92 408 9. 32 42 501

884. 488 .20D 24 192 4I5 138 4 32 60 99 24.2084 420 A 428 440 445 40 92 44 438 42 5 7369 8 2201 ;44O2D0 0 284a 44 1440 409 729 U 2 0a 63 A 505

Pw 881.11,Ia-d iL 3277 4280 4~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~259 485N 48 40 96 90 ~~~~~5 ~~~2 ~~ ~~~7 5 ...... 0.83- 428 42 26'8W5 40 8 8 2 7 . 2 W .8 ...... 4.47 420D 22 287 248 4713 4037 86 14a 32 248 9 473

M.- 9W2 2.165.C9 l 6-

F9 40.2 420 2 406 4se 147 446 84 442 442 9.3 3 8 5.9 803 9M. I~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~;238 428 2 Dc72 40.0 442 40 82 48'I 58.. 4305.1 5.

tO 428 485 423 82 34: 31 320 42 4 40C PO4.881338408PW9rlo P c--4h.Whd. W ~ 4020 ...... 4243 428 32 a6 42. 44 52 24 4 25 s4 47 .2 W ...... 8.367 4400 7.0 4641 489 422 6.6 39 441 32 4.5 8 440

6441114846.888188.244 w488-- 9.1186. 11045I_28 I 46.wmfgo.449s11b04p184.60.1a15*6a. 305

Table S. Worklrs paidhourbsly rnas th earnings aor below the P"veallng minimum Wage by seleted charatetrlariti.IN9A

I I tI t ttolh I 03838se7408 ~ t .1._& W-83 ~8aertt 30*1 T. Arl54.54 aml t-ft3aSi bteAT saat Ew_E g~ ~ ~ wlt Ttlltt~ Tur |en 8358|t biast g T3.16 Uwloue5143 353 4.125 7.38 76b 24s 15s64t 3542 25'D 043 '21° 34 O2yrascnouv. 384l9 2381 7596 795 7380 771 62 21 44cr i~~yr3.owuoor~ 28,10 211,2 r 7I8 t~lens rewi~s~oo7 735 ,* t4S t 9,6331 8220 492 11l0 32 520 ~ I 76 1 7 1 47 O~~~rnmi30nrr ~~~~~138911523 450 i63 355 1.1 I 7I5 2 0 79 Is I X12 W-e I6 eans neg 2530 2541 540 I 2476 348 M6 I v- 23 ll22 o xas 7416 208 '7373 323 92 s5rmi88e 715 137 82 18827 2734 '76 832 U3 27 t I I 748 3o sat.,S"i3n aetm i.nt

W ... . 48038 4923 32233 153 I I 44ev 74564~~~~~~~~~~2~1.582 1.213 4"I *5s 78" wsre3 23714 3230 1 317 20M 1219 Q7 1-11 587 t47 331 I7 824 ... 5523 828 5 5 721 252 122 17 ...... 57 1 35 8 . .... 3356 357 315 50 62 2 - ...... 3277 521 422 8 63 6 , r7" W.- 33 1 72 179 7! 1 6^ "I. w4 2155 90 867901ev 179 73 3 26 124678s32363 277 95 21 ha I1 35 160 r e-a A-I_ as 3 in. 348 Ito9 Ful.l em 42252 t 20 2079 2497 382 '7.. 1. ;l 53 k74. .... Z 5O 172 839 657 III 15 W - --- ...... 613636 31 9k2 7. 1244 842 404 302 225 Al. P18 e ..... 2Z 17 13.80 3583 2.627 725 W : 6747. 4243 230 78 1 2 Wos7 728 W96 31 7t 26. 98637 2602 767 94 a li 7.3 _gr brtb7N tress,. -0Drst2 b .fl

pw~ gloca

workers in the South earned Ihe minimum or less, compared particularly in retail S;lv in which nearly I out of every wiih 12 percent in the North Central region. 9 percent in the 4 employees cartild ItI, minimum or less. It should be re- Northeast, and 8 percent in the West membered. howescl. thatt Itr many working in sales and Nearly half of all minimum wage workers held service- food service ixcupai i...v tips and commissions supplement type jobs in 1984 Service azcupations with the highest (to varying degrees) Iti litiurly wages received concentrations of low-paying jobs included pnvate household work, food services, and cleaning and building ser- THISARTICLE has fowttt.j on e linings as a pure wage paid ices It is notable that persons employed as food service to the errpliyee-siri Iwld 22fany effects of tips, workers accounted for 31 percent of all workers at or below premium pay for overtime. bvti-c. and commissions. As the find- the minimum wage; of that number, roughly half worked at ings have suggested. Ill ucalth of information available the minimum of $3 35 and half worked belov- this level. from the Curreni tlttut2 Survey helps provide a founda- Another area in which there was a large proportion of per- tion for funher studies which can shed more light on the sons working at or below $3.35 was in sales occupations, conditions of workers paaidhourly rates E

- FOOTNOES - ' sos Meosure of Covipevteotv Bulltion 2239 (Boina- or Labor boors nsuly Siatios 1986). worked In ih I., of womkm with iwo m mo job,. tib , 04 coinptrinde icnpiooof it1 3ts va inns £6475 data -n kabubaicdaccoid me 7, is, tscupait3 at which Amn6Sthe a iheCurer LtEpltomvn- 7bcre plnyre wo0ks Sttic Suele Ar.v K.ugr the mint 8047o Surveys. 2 d Indtusny Whae Surr ys Dia mo wn kwrks by wopaion reve 70hbor aclualy worked 3S Repnn of rh Mint 7 Oop Srd Cowvrostun Voiumc1 dunng eachmorihs surnr) rererwwetrct, rather than tOthe number of p to7p rota i0 orecnltonpl 1,. tin fulltf d pa nic) vsrpfitos 306

APPENDIX: Hourly earnings data from the CPS

The Current Population Survey (CPS) is a monthly sample 59 percent, where it has remained. In 1983, there were survey conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census for the changesto the entire occupational classification system Bureau of Labor Statistics, totaling about 59,500 house- which preclude occupational comparisons with previous holds, in 50 Statesand the District of Columbia. Data on years. In addition, a change in the method of estimating hourly earnings are collected from one-quarter of each medians introduced the sameyear affects the comparability month's cps sample through questions 25B and 25C, which of any medians under $3.00 or over $5.99 per hour. read: As is thecase with estimates from any sample survey, the the 25B. Is ...paid by the hour on this job? results canvary by chance becausea sample, rather than entire population, is surveyed. A measureof this variation 25C. How much does . cam per hour? is called the standarderror. If samples arc repeatedly drawn Although data are collected monthly, the numbers are andestimates are computed from eachsample. in approxi- aggregated into quarterly and annual averagesto increase mately 68 out of 100 samples the actual population value their statistical reliability. On a quarterly basis, the data are will differ from the sample estimate by less than onestand- tabulated by sex. race, Hispanic origin, age, marital status, ard error. In approximately 90 out of 100 samples, the major occupation and industry groups, and usual full- or population value will differ from the sample estimate by less part-time status. Annual averagedata are also tabulated by than 1.6 times the standard error. All statements of compari- region of residence, number of hours usually worked, years son appearing in this article are significant atthe 90-percent of school completed, and more occupational and industrial level or higher. Usersare cautioned against drawing conclu- detail. While both the quarterly andannual averagetabula- sions from small differences among numbers for small pop- tions provide distributional data(for example, thenumber of ulation groups becauseof the relatively large sampling workers earting between $5 and $5.99 per hour). the latter errors associated with estimates based on small sample show more wage categories, as well as data for minimum sizes. In addition, results are subject to errors of response wage workers. andnonreporting-errors possible even in a complete cen- Beiween 1973and 1978, hourly earnings data were col- sus.These can result from differences in the interpretation lected only once a year as part of a supplement to each of questions, the inability or unwillingness of respondents May's cPs. Comparability between theseand more recent to provide correct answers, the rounding of figures, errors data is affected by changes in questionnairmdesign, the of processing, and errors made in estimating values for coverage of the wage and salary worker universe, and the missing data. For more mformation regarding the collec- handling of survey nonresponses. As a result, whereas esti- tion, processing, merits, andlimitations of cps data on cam- mates of the proportion of all workers paid hourly rates ings, seeEarl F. Mellor, Technical Description of the Quar- between 1973and 1978ranged between49 and51 percent, ierly Data on Weekly Eamringsfrom the Current Population changesintroduced in 1979caused the proportion to jump to Survey, Bulletin 2113 (Bureau of Labor Statistics. 1982). 307 Representative MCMILLAN. One final question, and it also has to do with measuring poverty, and I realize the difficulty in comparative figures with other nations and even in our own analysis of the problem. Would you clarify the degree to which figures could be made available that indicate what the poverty would be were there no public service assistance, no public assistance, and what impact public assistance has in reducing that poverty on an ongoing basis and is that available? Mrs. NORWOOD. The Census Bureau, which is responsible for the poverty data together with the Office of Management and Budget, has done some research. They are not official figures, but they have issued some studies looking at the effect of transfer payments of various types of governmental programs, food stamps, for example, medical assistance, Medicaid, and so on. We could submit something from those data of the Census Bureau for the record. We would be glad to do that. [The information referred to follows:] 308

Tatbe 1. Number of Persons Below The Poverty Level and Poverty Rate-Current Poverty Definition and Alternative Methods of Valuing Noncash Benefits, by Selected Characterlstics 1979 to 1982

5I. 0-6...... n8 , 4 l 4.4

I"II- 05 3 5 2 .5 ...... 5.|....5 2 745 0883495 2 .1. X3~~~~~~~283.5094. 0504.02 .. 8...45 ...... a~ ~~~~Oa7 5.o.808.090 ~ .882820 , 75108458 8. 0 |1 57_.072.5 50 RACEAND SPAN15H

1.I"I I"' I=. 32338 0 75 5...... 2411 220 2001 55 I'1 1502. 0204 111. .19 ...... 0. 2 255 2 2 0 229 409 5 5 58 52 04

IUI11 t1...... 54520 25532505564 2344 3 25553 255 24083 2548

4I8.4...... 04...... 8...... 29. .5. .N ...... 524...... X.2 53 252 4405 | 42 2295 4|2772 0.85 I-Im 44,2. .4. .... 23. 56.Z 8Z9 482 4405? ? 45?4'!'? 1. 808 .. 03S4 aY 28755j0 2465 2509 49225 200 9095241 6850 ,2534 "I

4...... 3...... 3.2433 24447882 Ill.I'. H.I 09 80......

is III 2l 342544355032329 52 42 I- I11 l 1.

II11 - 1.

I'll . _._...... I 11, I.,I'll I.7. 85.9 I...... Y.-86 8 I I I :1. I.O ...... 9 ......

a Y- od 0I/

xa ...... II:1. I - "I .4 . I.S 3484 .524040 309 Representative MCMILLAN. Mr. Chairman, I think that concludes my questions. Thank you. Senator SARBANES. Congressman Solarz. Representative SOLARZ. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Mrs. Norwood, how much of the long-term unemployment do you calculate is due to what might be characterized as geographical factors where there is depressed industry in that area and there are simply no jobs available in the community of the area and how much of it is due to what might be characterized as a lack of skills on the part of the individual who may live in an area where jobs are available but they don't have the capacity to fill the job? Mrs. NORWOOD. I don't know. We could take a look at the long- term unemployment group and see what we can find out. My guess is that there are probably combinations of circumstances that are involved. But I think it is important to recognize that the kinds of jobs we are creating tend to require more education and not less and more training and not less. Representative SOLARZ. Since I'm the new boy on the ship, as it were, and I don't know quite how this procedure works, but are you in a position to look into that and get back to us? Mrs. NORWOOD. Sure. We try to be of whatever service we can within existing resources of course. Senator SARBANES. And we try to get you adequate resources so you can be of service as well. We are concerned about that. Mrs. NORWOOD. I'm not here today asking for more resources but, yes, that's something we can do quite easily and we'll be glad to. Representative SOLARZ. Well, I would appreciate that because it does seem to me the implications and certainly the programmatic implications of this aggregation of the data on long-term unemployment are quite significant. [The following information was subsequently supplied for the record:] 310

U. S.Department of Labor ComMissIoner for Bureau of LabHe Slaslici Washingion D C 2021)

MAR 261981.?C PY

Honorable Stephen J. Solarz House of Representatives Washington, D.C. 20515

Dear Congressman Solarz:

During my testimony at the March 6 Joint Economic Committee hearing on the Nation's employment situation, you raised several questions to which I promised a response.

On the subject of long-term unemployment, an average of 2.2 million persons were unemployed for 15 weeks or more in 1986; 1.2 million of them were jobless for 27 weeks or longer (very long term). Both levels are sharply below their 1983 highs. (The trough of the 1981-82 recession was in November 1982, but long-term unemployment, which lags at cyclical turning points, reached its highest level in 1983.) Despite its substantial decline during the current economic recovery, long-term joblessness--particularly the very long component-- was much higher in 1986 than it was in 1979, just prior to the 1980 and the 1981-82 recessions. Also, as the tabulation below shows, long-term joblessness has increased as a proportion of total unemployment over the past 20 'ears.

Unemployed Unemployed 15 weeks and over 27 weeks and over

Number Percent Number Percent Year (000's) of total (000's) of total

1966 ...... 526 18.3 239 8.3 1976 ...... 2,366 32.0 1,384 18.2 1979 ...... 1,241 20.2 535 8.7 1983...... 4,210 39.3 2,559 23.9 1986 ...... 2,232 27.1 1,187 14.4

The long-term unemployed include relatively high proportions of men, older workers, blacks, and workers formerly employed in manufacturing. For example, among all the unemployed, the proportion who remained jobless for 15 weeks or more was 27 percent 311

MAR 2 6 1987

in 1986. However, among unemployed men age 45-64, about 45 percent had been jobless for 15 or more weeks. Similarly, about 30 percent of unemployed black workers and 32 percent of persons who last worked in manual occupations were in the long-term jobless group, as were 35 percent of all those whose last jobs had been in manufacturing.

Although the distribution of extended unemployment by worker characteristics clearly shows a structural element, changes in the number of persons with long-term unemployment over time primarily reflect the cyclical ups and downs of the economy. It is, of course, difficult to distinguish between structural, cyclical, and frictional unemployment. However, frictional unemployment--that which comes about because of the movement of workers into and out of the labor force and from one job to another--is seldom thought of as being of long duration.

With regard to issues associated with the minimum wage, we have prepared the enclosed bibliography of recent studies.

On the subject of trade, we publish jointly with the Census Bureau the enclosed publication, Trade and Employment. The data provided in this report are useful in monitoring changes in U.S. imports and related domestic'employment. We do not have specific information on the employment effect of imports, however, since industry employment trends are affected by many other factors, such as changing domestic demand, technology, other productivity improvements, etc. I

Our response on questions relating to productivity trends is so lengthy that I have included it as an additional enclosure.

I look forward to future contact with you at the monthly hearings.

Sincerely yours,

JANET L. NORWOOD Commis sioner

Enclosures 312

Recent Developments in Productivity

Last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) published the data on productivity as measured by output per hour of all persons in the business economy for 1986. After rising substantially for two straight years following the 1982 recession, business productivity rose by 1 percent in 1985 and only showed a alight gain of 0.7 percent in 1986.

The productivity movements for the last few years have been responses to the cyclical recovery that has occurred following the recession ending in the fourth quarter of 1982. The current upturn, which is now 16 quarters long, has been one of the longer recovery periods in the post-World War II period.

There is a cyclical pattern of movement in productivity which has taken place throughout much of our history and underlies much of our current developments. During all of our recovery periods, substantial productivity growth has occurred after the trough of the recessions. However, since the post-1961 recovery, the productivity growth rate during each succeeding recovery has been somewhat lower than the previous one. The current productivity growth rate is the weakest of all the longer term recoveries, that is, all of those which lasted 16 quarters or more. For example, in this recovery, business productivity growth has been 1.3 percent (annual rate), in contrast with an average rate of 2.9 percent for the other longer term recoveries of previous cycles.

Although the usual acceleration took place during the recovery phase of the latest cycle, it has had only a small effect on the longer term rate for the business sector in the United States since 1973 and has extended the slowdown which has been occurring in the country since 1973. 313

Long-Term Developments

After growing at a rate of about 3 percent per year during the quarter of a century preceding 1973, productivity growth since 1973 in the business sector fell to a rate of less than 1 percent per year (0.9). The earlier period was one of unusually high productivity growth. During every earlier period of similar length, the average rate was lower--usually substantially lower. Therefore, the falloff since 1973 was very large in part because of the exceptionally high rate of productivity growth in the earlier period.

Nevertheless, by the same historical standards, the average productivity trend rate since 1973 has been unusually low. In fact, it has been the lowest rate for such a long period, all the way back to 1909, the first year for which we have fairly reliable data.

The productivity slowdown has been pervasive, affecting most sectors and industries. Some sectors, such as mining and public utilities, have shown very marked deceleration and even declines. Other sectors, such as manufacturing, have experienced some falloff but to a much more limited extent. Of the 150 industries for which we publish productivity indexes, over three-fourths had significant declines in their growth rates. In general, the mining and transportation, and some specific manufacturing industries, such as petroleum refining, motors and generators, and aluminum rolling and drawing, had the largest falloffs in their growth rates.

Much attention has been focused on the slowdown and many explanations have been advanced for it. These have included the effects of shifts in the industrial composition of the economy, changes in the composition of the work force, an apparent slowdown in the growth of capital-labor ratios, the leveling off of research and development expenditures, the rising price of energy during the 1970's, the diverting of investment to pollution abatement expenditures, the impact of other government regulations, the maturation of many industries with little new technology, and even changes in attitudes toward work in our society.

There is no simple explanation of the slowdown and no general agreement as to the quantitative impact of the various factors. Various researchers have stressed different explanations of the slowdown, but after careful examination, a significant part remains unexplained. 314

In BLS we have examined some of the factors which might appear to explain the slowdown. For example, one of the sources believed to have contributed to the productivity slowdown was an alleged falloff in the growth of the capital-labor ratio.

Historically, a major source of the growth in output per hour, the traditional measure of productivity, has been the increase in the capital stock which the work force has had available to generate increased output. The slowdown in productivity growth has been partially attributed by some investigators to a slowdown in capital formation that has failed to keep up with the growth in the work force.

In order to assess the effects of changes in the substitution of capital for labor on output per hour (labor productivity) movements, other measures of productivity have been developed by BLS which include in the denominator other inputs beside labor, such as capital services. The difference in the movements of the output per hour measures and these multifactor productivity measures indicates the effect of changes in the substitution rate.

For the business economy, the contribution to the 3 percent per year growth in output per hour of the growth in the capital-labor ratio was 1 percentage point from 1948-73. After 1973, despite the fact that the growth in output per hour fell to 0.9 percent per year, the contribution of the substitution of capital for labor had only dropped from 0.9 to 0.7 percent per year. For the nonfarm business sector, the decline in the capital contribution was even less (from 0.8 to 0.7 percentage points). There was virtually no slowdown in the substitution of capital for labor over the last decade and a half to explain much, if any, of the productivity slowdown.

Similar analyses have been done with regard to impact of the shift to services, increased Government regulations, etc., with the same general conclusion emerging. Their effects were limited. The sources of the productivity slowdown are still somewhat of a mystery.

Manufacturing

There is one sector which has been exhibiting a somewhat different pattern of productivity movement from the rest of the business economy. In the slowdown after 1973, while there was a slackening in the productivity growth for manufacturing as for the rest of the economy, the falloff in manufacturing was much smaller than for the other sectors. The deceleration 315

was 0.6 percentage points (2.8 percent per year from 1943-73 to 2.2), much smaller than that which occurred in almost all of the other sectors.

In contrast to the business economy as a whole, the growth in the capital-labor ratio in manufacturing did not decline after 1973. In fact, it accelerated from a rate of 2.6 to 3.5 percent per year. As a result, the contribution of the substitution of capital for labor to manufacturing output per hour rose from 0.8 to 0.9 after 1973.

The somewhat lower rate of productivity growth in manufacturing ended in 1981 and since then it has accelerated to a rate greater than that of the entire pre-1973 period. Indeed, manufacturing productivity growth in recent years has been the highest of all sectors. These gains reflect output growth accompanied by actual declines in employment and hours. International Comparisons

For many years, BLS has provided comparative measures of labor statistics for the U.S. and other industrialized countries to shed light on U.S. economic performance relative to these countries. The principal measures developed cover labor productivity, hourly compensation, and unit labor costs for manufacturing for the U.S. and 11 other industrialized countries (Canada, Germany, France, Japan, the United Kingdom, Belgium, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, the Netherlands, and Italy).

The comparative manufacturing labor productivity measures are limited to trend comparisons rather than level comparisons because the data needs for comparing levels are more rigorous than for comparing movements. Output and input data within each country must be carefully matched and coverage and definitions closely aligned when developing level comparisons. Some data inconsistencies can be tolerated in comparing trend measures because their effects are not likely to alter the movements appreciably. This is especially true when a consistent error of measurement is present within a series over a period of years. Finally, to compare levels of manufacturing output, it is essential to have appropriate indexes of the relative purchasing powers of national currencies. Such indexes are not available on a basis appropriate to the measurement of relative manufacturing output.

79-018 0 - 88 - 11 316

Hour of Compound Annual Rates of Growth in Output Per All Persons, the Contribution of Capital Intensity, and Multifactor Productivity, by Major Section 1948 to 1985

1973-85 Measure 1948-73

1 Private Business 0.9 per hour 2.9 Output 2 0.9 0.7 Capital effects 3 0.2 Multifactor productivity 2.0

Private Nonfars Businessl 2.5 0.7 Output per hour 2 0.8 0.7 Capital effects 3 0.0 Multifactor productivity 1.7

Manufacturingl 2.2 hour 2.8 Output per 2 0.9 effects 0.8 Capital 3 1.3 Multifactor productivity 2.0

1 Excludes government enterprises. share 2 Change in capital services per hour times capital's of current-dollar output. inputs. 3 Output per unit of combined labor and capital

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics 317

What Do the Data Show?

Looking at the long-term results from 1960 to 1985, output per hour in manufacturing has risen at annual rates of 2.7 to 8 percent in the 12 countries for which we have prepared comparative measures. The United States recorded the lowest rate of gain and Japan the highest. Within Europe, two of the smaller countries, Belgium and the Netherlands, have shown the best productivity growth performance.

All 12 industrialized countries have had productivity growth rate slowdowns since about 1973. As mentioned earlier, the rate for the U.S. business economy fell from 3 percent per year before 1973 to less than 1 percent per year. In manufacturing, the falloff has not been as great--only about 1 percentage point per year.

With the exception of Belgium, the falloffs in manufacturing productivity in the other countries have been larger--ranging from about 2 to 5 percentage points per year--but from higher pre-slowdown average rates of growth.

The U.S. productivity growth rate for manufacturing of 2.2 percent per year from 1973 to 1985 was about equal to the productivity growth rates recorded by Canada and Norway, but still lower than those of the other countries. However, the productivity gains recorded by most of the European countries resulted primarily, or entirely, from reductions in employment and hours, whereas the U.S. productivity gain--and the gains of Canada and Japan--resulted largely from rising output. Recent Developments

Since the recession of 1982, nearly all of the countries have experienced stronger productivity growth. However, the U.S., Canada, and the United Kingdom standout, showing the greatest acceleration. In these three countries, manufacturing productivity rose at rates of 4 to 5 percent from 1982 to 1985, compared with rates of about 1 1/2 percent from i973-81.

Japan still had the highest productivity growth rate, nearly 6 percent, but it did not represent much of an improvement over the 5 1/2 percent rate that it had during the slowdown, and Japan clearly did not return to the exceptionally high pre-slowdown rate of over 10 percent. In some of the European countries, productivity growth actually decelerated in the more recent years, and, with the exception of the United Kingdom, none of the others matched their pre-slowdown rates.

Enclosed are a summary table on comparative rates of growth in manufacturing productivity and a copy of our latest article comparing trends in manufacturing productivity and labor costs. 318

wage is at or below the prevailing Table A. Workers paid hourly rates, whose minimum wage, 1979-86

(Numbers in thousands) At minimum wage Below xinimum we

Percent of Percent of Minimum hourly hourly Year Wage Number workers Number workers

TOTAL 5.6 1979 $2.90 3,907 7.7 2,846 1980 3.10 4,581 9.1 3,017 6.0 1981 3.35 4,311 8.3 3,513 6.8 4.6 1982 3.35 4,148 8.2 2,348 4.0 1983 3.35 4,261 8.2 2,077 1984 3.35 4,125 7.6 1,838 3.4 1985 3.35 3, 899 7.0 1,639 2.9 1986 3.35 3, 461 6.0 1,599 2.8

SERVICE-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 1979 2.90 2,750 11.2 2,204 9.0 1980 3.10 3,273 13.1 2,352 9.4 1981 3.35 3,068 11.6 2,814 10.6 7.2 1982 3.35 3,036 11.3, 1,947 1983 3.35 3 168 11.4 1,777 6.4 3.35 3,117 10.7 1, 598 5.5 1984 4.7 1985 3.35 2, 973 9.8 1 ,428 4.5 1986 3.35 2,643 8.4 1,407

SOURCE: Current Population Survey 319 Representative SOLARZ. Now following up -on Congressman Mc- Millan's question, do you have any data on the impact of previous increases in the minimum wage on unemployment? Mrs. NORWOOD. That's a $64 question. There is a whole literature on it in which people have tried to look at the effect on jobs and on various people. We have not done anything in that area, and I don't think that there is anything that I see that we could add to that today. Representative SOLARZ. Well, perhaps you could get me some of the titles that you think are most illuminating and objective. Mrs. NORWOOD. Sure. Representative SOLARZ. I assume the tradeoff is the additional money that people have to spend as a result of the increase in the minimum wage which presumably results in greater demand and that demands greater jobs compared to the loss of jobs because it's no longer economical for particular employers to hire people at the higher minimum wage. Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, it's clearly that and it's also of course the possible inflationary pressures and what happens not just to the minimum wage jobs, but to the relationship of the earnings in the minimum wage jobs and in other jobs. It's very complicated, but we'll be glad to let you know about the studies. Representative SOLARZ. And something which somebody who didn't major in economics or get a graduate degree in the subject could have some remote hope of understanding. [The information referred to follows:] 320

Selected Recent Studies of the Effects of the Mini. Wage

Behrman, J.R., Sickles, R.C. and Taubman, P. 'The Impact of Minimum Wages on the Distributions of Earnings for Major Race-Sex Groups: A Dynamic Analysis,' American Economic Review, September 1983, 73(4), pp. 766-778.

Beranek, W. 'The Illegal Alien Work Force, Demand for Unskilled Labor and the Minimum Wage," Journal of Labor Research, Winter 1982, 3(1), pp. 89-99.

Brown, C., Gilroy, C. and Koben, A. 'The Effect of the Minimum Wage on Employment and Unemployment," The Journal of Economic Literature, June 1982, 20(2), pp. 487-588.

Brown, C., Gilroy, C. and Kohen, A. "Time Series Evidence of the Effect of the Minimum Wage on Youth Employment and Unemployment," Journal of Human Resources, Winter 1983, 18(1), pp. 3-31.

Chang, Y.M. and Ehrlich, I. 'On the Economics of Compliance with the Minimum Wage Law,' Journal of Political Economy, February 1985, 93(1), pp. 84-91.

Cherry, R. "Textbook Treatments of Minimum Wage Legislation," Review of Black Political Economy, Spring 1985, 13(4), pp. 25-38.

Das, S.P. "Sector Specific Minimum Wages, Economic Growth, and Some Policy Implications," Journal of Development Economics, February 1982, 10(1), pp. 127-131.

Drabicki, J.Z. and Takayama, A. "Minimum Wage Regulation and Economic Growth," Journal of Economics and Business, 1982, 34(3), pp. 231-240.

Ehrenberg, R.G. and Marcus, A.J. "Minimum Wages and Teenagers' Enrollment-Employment Outcomes: A Multinomial Logit Model," Journal of Human Resources, Winter 1982, 17(1), pp. 39-58.

Fethke, G.C. and Pdicano, A.J. "Cyclical Implications of Indexing the Minimum Wage," Journal of Macroeconomics, Winter 1984, 6(1), pp. 1-21.

Fleisher, B.M., Minimum Wage Regulation in the United States, Washington, D.C.: National Chamber Foundation, 1983.

Forrest, David. 'Low Pay or No Pay? A Review of the Theory and Practice of Minimum Wage Laws," Hobart paper #101. London: Institute of Economic Affairs, 1984. 321

Grenier, G. 'On Compliance with the Minimum Wage Law,' Journal of Political Economy, February 1982, 90(1), pp. 184-187.

Grossman, J.B. The Impact of the Minimum Wage on Other Wages,' Journal of Human Resources, Summer 1983, 18(3), pp. 359-378.

Hamermesh, D.S. 'Minimum Wages and the Demand for Labor,' Economic Inquiry, July 1982, 20(7), pp. 365-380.

Hashimoto, M. "Minimum Wage Effects on Training on the Job," American Economic Review, December 1982, 72(5), pp. 1070-1087.

Hirsch, W.Z. and Rufolo, A.M. "Effects of Prevailing Wage Laws on Municipal Government Wages," Journal of Urban Economics, January 1983, 13(1), pp. 112-126.

Imam, M.H. and Whalley, J. 'Incidence Analysis of a Sector-Specific Minimum Wage in a Two-Sector Harris-Todaro Model," Quarterly Journal of Economics, February 1985, 100(1), pp. 207-224.

Johnson, W.R. and Browning, E.K. 'The Distributional and Efficiency Effects of Increasing the Minimum Wage: A Simulation," The American Economic Review, March 1983, 73(1), pp. 204-211.

Kaufman, R.T. 'Nqpotism and the Minimum Wage,' Journal of Labor Research, Winter 1983, 4(1), pp. 81-89.

Keyes, W.A. 'The Minimum Wage and the Davis-Bacon Act: Employment Effects on Minorities and Youth,' Journal of Labor Research, Fall 1982, 3(4), pp. 399-407.

Krumm, R.J., The Impact of the Minimum Wage on Regional Labor Markets. Washington, D.C.: The American Enterprise Institute, 1981.

Linneman, P. 'The Economic Impacts of Minimum Wage Laws: A New Look at an Old Question,' Journal of Political Economy, June 1982, 90(3), pp. 443-469.

Mellor, E.F. and Haugen, S.E., "&burly Paid Workers: Who They Are and What They Earn,' Monthly Labor Review, February 1986, pp. 20-26.

Metzger, M.R. and Goldfarb, R.S. 'Do Davis-Bacon Minimum Wages Raise Product Quality?' Journal of Labor Research, Summer 1983, 4(3), pp. 265-272.

Meyer, R.H. and Wise, D.A. 'The Effects of the Minimum Wage on The Employment and Earnings of Youth,' Journal of Labor Economics, January 1983, 1(1), pp. 66-100. 322

Mills, D. Q. and Frobes, S. hpact of Increases in the Federal Minimum Wage on Target Groups in Urban Areas,' Public Policy, Summer 1981, 29(3), pp. 277-297.

Pearce, J.E. 'The Minimum Wage and the Davia-Bacon Act: Comment,' Journal of Labor Research, Fall 1982, 3(4), pp. 411-413.

Reynolds, M.0 W *Understanding Political Pricing of Labor Services: The Davis-Bacon Act,- Journal of Labor Research, Summer 1982, 3(3), pp. 295-309.

Sellekaerts, B.H. and Welch, S.W. "An Econometric Analysis of Minimum Wage Noncompliance," Industrial Relations, Spring 1984, 23(2), pp. 244-259.

Sgro, P.M. and Takayama, A. "Cn the Long-Run Growth Effects of a Minimum Wage for a Two Sector Economy,' Economic Record, June 1981, 57(157), pp. 180-185.

Solon, G. 'The Minimum Wage and Teenage Employment: A Reanalysis with Attention to Serial Correlation and Seasonality,' Journal of Human Resources, Spring 1985, 20(2), pp. 292-297.

Swidinsky, R. and Wilton, D.A. 'Minimum Wages, Wage Inflation, and the Relative Wage Structure," Journal of Human Resources, Spring 1982, 17(2), pp. 163-177.

Williams, W.E., 'The Minimum Wage and the Davis-Bacon Act: Comment.' Journal of Labor Research, Fall 1982, 3(4), pp. 408-410. 323 Representative SOLARZ. Do you have any estimate of the impact on unemployment of the recent fall in the value of the dollar over the course of the last year? Mrs. NORWOOD. No, we have not made any estimate and I don't think we could. What we have done is to factor those changes into our analysis of our export-import price data, but I don't see any way to attribute particular employment changes to that. What we are looking at is how competitive we are in terms of price. That is a specific thing and we can look at the price changes of imports and of exports, and we do that. We have a program which we call our International Price Program which covers export prices and import prices. I think it is a tremendously important program and probably ought to be better known than it is. Representative SOLARZ. Well, I would think that you ought to be able to trace where there is an increase in exports and to what extent that increase is due to the relative fall in the value of the dollar and thereby making our goods more attractive to foreign purchasers and then presumably translate the increase in exports into the number of jobs it takes to produce those exports. Mrs. NORWOOD. One can go through that exercise, but I'm not sure that it has very much meaning because you are shifting all the factors of production as you are going through that. And it would be impossible to do for the import side, which is also an important side of our trade balance. Representative SOLARZ. Now your figures seem to suggest that there was a rather dramatic increase, at least in the last month in the inflation rate. I think it went up like seven-tenths of a percent or something in that vicinity and last year it was, what, 1 percent over the year as a whole. Does this lead you to the conclusion that we're witnessing the re- birth of an inflation problem in the country? Mrs. NORWOOD. No, not at all. A large part of that increase was due to gasoline, and we know that the firming in those prices has turned around already. So I think we need to be a bit careful in analyzing those data. I'm not saying that there weren't some other changes there as well, but an awful lot of the 1 month's change was gasoline prices which are not holding up. Representative SOLARZ. And, finally, how much of a problem is what I gather is this enormous increase in debt, in personal debt which has been accumulated. I have the impression that in historic terms we are almost at unprecedented levels of personal and corporate debt in the country. Obviously if there were to be a recession, this could be a problem, but it's not clear to me how concerned ought we to be about this. Is this a house of cards waiting to collapse the minute things really begin to go bad and people can't pay their debt and you set in motion a kind of chain reaction or would we be able to manage the problems created by a recession in spite of this enormous personal and corporate debt? Mrs. NORWOOD. We do have a lot of consumer debt. It's growth began slowing in the last quarter. Part of that is perhaps the result of changes in automobile prices. I think it bears watching certainly, but there have been some declines over the last quarter. 324 Representative SOLARZ. Well, how is it in historic terms? Is it substantially higher today by whatever indicia one uses to measure this than it has been in the past as a percentage of GNP? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. There is no question about it. Representative SOLARZ. What would you say are the most relevant figures here that would give a sense of the magnitude of the problem? I I Mrs. NORWOOD. I don't happen to have those here. I can supply something for the record. [The information referred to follows:] LY E@UI: FE 01-Apr-87

ANNUALDATA HOHTHLYDATA Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Doe Jan Feb 1984 1985 1986 1986 1986 1986 1986 1986 1986 1987 1987

goal GNP (86IIoos of 19828) 3489.9 3585.2 3674.9 -- -- 3686.4 -- -- 3696.1 -- -- * chuse..aaal rate 6.4 2.7 2.5 2.8 -- -- 1.1 _ _ lodastrial Pruductlon lodes (1977:100) 121.4 123.8 125.0 124.9 125.1 124.9 125.3 126.0 126.6 126.8 127.3 X chiage 11.2 2.0 1.0 0.6 0.2 -0.2 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.4

Caogtp Utllastlon (1) flasf. 80.8 80.3 79.7 79.7 79.7 79.6 79.6 79.8 80.0 79.9 80.1 CO'

C &I Loeos * moafla.Co". Paper (5) s1110i.s of $) 358.7 409.7 424 1 417.7 425.8 421.7 425.4 426.5 432.4 441.9 * Chasse. aaal frats 15.7 14.2 3.5 5.3 25.9 -11.0 11.1 3.1 17.9 29.8

C 8 I Loaas 299.8 332.4 342.6 337.6 341.7 340.4 343.4 346.1 353.9 363.9 aofis. Corn.Paper 58.9 77.3 81.5 80.1 84.1 81.3 82.0 80.4 78.5 78.0

Coeaoaat lastallseat Credit Total (I) Isilaeoas of 8) 453.6 535.1 570.2 573.2 576.6 584.3 576.9 577.6 577.8 578.3 I chaos.. assail rate 20.6 18.0 6.6 12.3 7.4 17.3 -14.2 1.5 0.4 1.0 326 Representative SOLARZ. Okay, but what would they be, debt in relationship to GNP or some other ratio? Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, probably, but I would like to think about that a bit. Representative SOLARZ. Well, thank you very much. Mr. Chair- man, you said when I first arrived that John Kennedy when he was in the Senate said that of all the committees he was on this one was the most fun, and I think he was right. [Laughter.] Thank you very much. Senator SARBANES. I just have a couple of areas I want to develop. I'm really very much intrigued by chart 1 and the question of a fast runup of the unemployment rate. Of course I've been trying to calibrate it off of the index at the bottom, which is the geographic timeframe, and that's a little difficult to do. I'll get the figures and do it month by month, and take a look at those. But as I look at these and make my rough calculations, the unemployment rate can rise 3 points or maybe even more in a year's time, can't it? That happened apparently back in 1953-54, when it went from about 2.5 to 6 percent in a year, and in 1957-58 when it went from 4.5 to 7.5 and in 1974-75 when it went from roughly 5 to 9 percent, and in the last recession from, 8 to 11-all, I think it's reasonable to say, within a year's time. That means that if we crack through the thin ice the economy's skating on that we could go to an unemployment rate of about 10 percent, on the basis of these past trends, within 9 to 12 months. Is that kind of apprehension reasonable? Mr. PLEWES. In the last recession we went from 7.2 to 10.8 in 16 months. Senator SARBANES. From 7.2 to-- Mr. PLEWES. From 7.2 in July of 1981 to 10.8 in December of the following year. We are at 6.7 now but we don't know what the next path will be. Senator SARBANES. So in 16 months the unemployment rate increased 50 percent, if you look at it that way. It's the sort of rapid movement that causes a very sharp degree of concern when you look at all the indicators, particularly given the high level at which we already find ourselves with respect to the unemployment rate. I wanted to ask just a couple of questions about the CPI. You are going to run the new market basket and the old weights for how long? Mrs. NORWOOD. 6 months. Senator SARBANES. And in the first month there a one-tenth of a point-- Mrs. NORWOOD. Two-tenths. Senator SARBANES. I thought it was 0.7 versus 0.8; is that right? Mrs. NORWOOD. Between the old and the new CPI, the percent change from December to January was two-tenths of a percentage point lower with the revised index than with the old index. Wheth- er that will continue or not, no one knows. Senator SARBANES. So the figures would have been 0.7 and 0.9? Mr. DALTON. No, 0.6 and 0.8. What we are comparing here are the unadjusted figures, the figures before seasonal adjustment. The 0.7 is the figure after seasonal adjustment for the new series. The 327 old series is no longer seasonally adjusted. So the comparison, to make it strictly comparable, would be 0.6 and 0.8. Senator SARBANES. Then the difference is greater than I thought. I had seen a report I guess in the press or somewhere and I thought the difference was one-tenth of a point. Percentagewise that would have been about 15 percent, I guess, but it has just doubled on me. So I guess there is more point actually to the question I'm going to put, and that is: What change in the market basket caused the difference? The difference is wider than I thought. Why is that? Mr. DALTON. It's principally the change in the relative importance of energy in the new market basket. Energy is smaller in terms of its weight in the new market basket than it is in the old. So the rather sharp increase that we had in gasoline prices in Jan- uary had a larger impact on the old index than it did on the new index. Mrs. NORWOOD. On the other hand, when we extrapolate to longer periods, we should remember that there are other changes. Food, for example, has a lower weight. Food at home has a lower weight in the revised index than it did in the older index. On the other hand, housing has a higher weight. So you've got energy with a lower weight, food at home with a lower weight and housing with a higher weight, and if you will remember, Mr. Chair- man, in the 1970's particularly the late 1970's and the early 1980's it was food, energy, and housing which brought about our inflation. So the shift in those weights and the result of those shifts will depend in large part on the relative shifts of the prices that we face. I should point out that there were other changes made in the index as well. We've improved the sampling, and particularly we have improved the homeownership component. It is a much better and much larger component and sample design, particularly the owner-occupied housing, than we have had in the past. Senator SARBANES. You mean you've improved the quality of the sample? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. Senator SARBANES. Have you decreased the quantity of the sample? Mrs. NORWOOD. No. We've doubled the sample in housing because we found that the sample that we had before was really not as large as we thought it ought to be as our testing and our model showed it ought to be. We have also got a new sample of areas for collecting prices in the index and of course new population weights, bringing the 1980 population census weights in to replace the 1970 population weights. We're moving more toward the South and the West and away from the Northeast. That is where the population is and that's how the prices should be weighted, and there are a lot of other changes. There will also be some changes that will be introduced over the next 2 years. We have a process for revising the sample of retail establishments in which we collect data. Those will be done in more cities as we move through this year and the next, and there are some other things that we have planned. 328 We did make an announcement that the work that we have done so far on the aging bias of the housing units seems to be extremely promising. We are now discussing that work with our advisory committees and we would hope if it seems as good after all of the review to bring that into place a year from now. We also feel that it is time for us to change the arithmetic base of the index because we are still on 1967 as a hundred. We now have had OMB approval to change the base to the same timeframe as the weights of the index, that is 1982-84, and we hope to do that next year in Janu- ary. Senator SARBANES. Between January 1986 and January 1987 real average weekly earnings declined a 10th of a point for workers on private nonagricultural payrolls, and in some industries such as mining, public utilities, and retail trade weekly earnings declined even before adjusting for inflation. Now this is a pattern that is typical of a recession or a period of high inflation, and neither conditions holds right now. How do you explain this decline in real earnings? Mrs. NORWOOD. I don't know. Those data have been bouncing around considerably. It may be the particular set of months that are being compared. As we have just commented, the CPI for the month of January went up. Whether that will stay up or not, we really don't know, although as I've said, insofar as the gasoline is concerned there has been some turnaround. So I would like to wait to look at that. What we are seeing clearly in our employment cost index is a little over 3 percent change, year over year. If you compare that to the rate of inflation over the year, you would have a positive change in real ECI, which is really a better measure of compensation than average earnings. Senator SABRANES. I guess my concern is that at the end of a slow but continuous 5-year period of some growth that we see a pattern of real earnings different from that characteristic of past recovery periods. Mrs. NORWOOD. That's right. Senator SARBANES. Your response, as I understand it says that perhaps it's not quite that way because of the January 1987 figure, which may have thrown if off because the seven-tenths of a percent was too much, and so forth. But if you take a broader period to look at, I'm really concerned about trend lines. Is it an accurate perception that in this recovery period real earnings are not coming back the way they have in the previous recovery periods? Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, it's quite clear, and what I was addressing really was just the particular points, you're quite right, and not the trend. It is clear that earnings have been going up much less in this recovery than in the past in large part because of the weakness in manufacturing which is where so much of the increase was going on. We are seeing really fairly flat unit labor costs in this country now. We can take a look at this and report back to you. We had very high rates of inflation in the late 1970's which would have affected that measure. Therefore, that period probably would have had smaller gains in real earnings than now, but I'm not sure 329 about that and I would like to check those data. We do know we had double-digit rates of inflation in the late 1970's. What we are seeing that is important I think is reduced labor costs. You can look at this in two ways. You can look at it in terms of employer costs and then you look at it in terms of worker benefits. Senator SARBANES. But in terms of past trends in a period neither of recession nor of high inflation, what has happened to real earnings in the last few years represents a historical departure, does it not? Mrs. NORWOOD. Mr. Mark has just given me some data which maybe he could describe to you. I'm not sure those are in real terms, are they, Jerry? Mr. MARK. The nominal hourly compensation for the business sector in this recovery, from the fourth quarter of 1982 to the current quarter, was at an average annual rate of 3.6 percent a year, and the average of the previous cycle of recovery was about 6.6. I don't have the CPI change during that period, but at least a strong proportion of it does show a much smaller increase in the current recovery. Senator SARBANES. So people's standard of living, unlike in past recoveries, is not recovering. Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. There is a great deal of data which when looked at over the last decade show very little change in family income. Senator SARBANES. I wanted to ask about your chart 3 that shows that the unemployment rate for women is currently almost as low as it was at the peak of the last major expansion, while the unemployment rate for men is much higher. Also, for the first time in almost three decades the unemployment rate for women is no higher than for men. Is that an accurate reading of your chart? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. Senator SARBANES. The question then is why have women fared so much better in this recovery than men? Mrs. NORWOOD. That is in large part I think because women fared a lot better during the recession than men did. Men had a lot more to recover from because of the very high rates of unemployment that they suffered during the recession and the fact that for so many of the men their jobs were in manufacturing industries, particularly durable manufacturing industries, which have recovered only about 50 percent of the jobs lost during the recession. Senator SARBANES. Would your last point explain why the women fared better in the recession? If you tell me the reason they did better now is because they did better during the recession, then the next question is why did they do better during the recession, and in that also related to the durable goods situation? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes, and the fact that so many women, whether fortunately or unfortunately are working in the service producing sector which held up quite well in the recession and has done remarkably well in the recovery. Senator SARBANES. How are women earning now relative to men? 330 Mrs. NORWOOD. Their earnings as a proportion of men have gone up a little bit. They are, what, two-thirds on average. I think the latest data show that they are about-I'll find the exact figure in a moment. That ratio has been edging up over the last several years, but it is still roughly only two-thirds that of men. Senator SARBANES. Finally, just to underscore it in the record, Congressman Solarz raised a line of questions about the question of debt overhang. I simply note that in our annual report we have a chart showing a very sharp increase in total debt as a percent of GNP. It shows Federal debt as a percent of GNP, and then it shows private debt as a percent of GNP. What has happened, as the text makes clear, is that in the past the ratio of domestic nonfinancial debt to GNP, Federal Government debt plus private sector, has stayed at a remarkably constant level of approximately 1.40. That is this line here. What happened in the past was that when the private debt went up the Federal debt came down and vice versa, which in part, I guess, would reflect countercyclical activity. But the total stayed at roughly the same level of GNP. What has happened in recent years is very different. Both have gone up-both private debt and the Federal debt-and the conse- quence is a shift from this kind of trend line for total debt as a percent of GNP to this very sharply rising line. So we now have a tremendous overhang of debt, and the debt has really grown very significantly as percent of GNP. Mrs. NORWOOD. The figure for the ratio of women's earnings to men is 66 percent. Senator SARBANES. Well, Commissioner, thank you very much. Mrs. NORWOOD. Thank you. Senator SARBANES. We appreciate your testimony. The committee stands adjourned. [Whereupon, at 11:05 a.m., the committee adjourned, subject to the call of the Chair.] EMPLOYMENT-UNEMPLOYMENT

FRIDAY, APRIL 3, 1987

X-II ARlHA method X 11 method Month Unad- Concurrent (official Range and jus ted Official (as first Concurrent Stable Total Residual method (cola. y_ear rate I procedure computed) (revised) before 1980) 2-8) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

1986

March ••••••• 7.5 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 .1 April ••••••• 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 .1 May ••••••••• 7.0 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 - June •••••••• 7.3 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 - July •••••••• 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 6.9 7.0 7.0 .1 August •••••• 6.7 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.9 7.0 6.8 .2 September ••• 6.8 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 - October ••••• 6.6 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.0 6.9 6.9 7.0 .1 November •••• 6.6 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.0 .1 December •••• 6.3 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.7 .1 1987

January ••••• 7.3 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.7 .2 February •• ;. 7.2 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.7 6.5 6.7 .2 March ••••••• 6.9 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.6 .1

SOURCE: U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Bureau of Labor Statistics April 1987 334

(1) Unadjusted race. Unemployment rare for all civilian workers, not seasonally adjusted.

(2) Officfal procedure (X-il ARIMAmethod) The published seasonally adjusted rare for all civilian rkers Eac of the 3 major civilian labor force csponents-agriculcural employment, nonagricultural employment and unemployment-for 4 age-sex groups-ales and females, ages 16-19 and 20 years and over-are seasonally adjusted Independently using data from January 1975 forward. The data series for each of these 12 components are extended by a year at each end of the original series using ARIKA (Auto-Regressive, Integrated, Moving Average) models chosen specificaily for each snries Each ascended series is then seasonaliy adjusted with the K-li portion of the X-li ARIMAprogrm. The 4 teenage unemployment and nonagricultural employment components are adjusted with the additive adjustment model, while the other components are adjusted with the multiplicative model. The unemployment rate is computed by sunning the 4 seasonally adjusted unemployment components and calcularing that total as a percent of the civilian labor force total derived by sutning a11 12 seasonally adjusted components. All the seasonally adjusted series are revised at the end of each year. Extrapolated factors for January-June are computed at the beginning of each year; extrapolated factors for July-December are computed in the middle of the year after the June data become available. Each set of 6-month factors are published in advance, in the January and July issues, respectively, of Employment and Earnings.

(3) Concurrent (as first computed, X-li ARIMAmethod). The official procedure for computation of the rate for all civilian workers using the 12 components is followed except that extrapolated factors are not used at all. Each component is seasonally adjusted with the X-li ARIMAprogram each month as the most recent data become available. Rates for each month of the current year are shown as first computed; they are revised only once each year, at the end of the year when data for the full year become available. For example. the rate for January 1985 would be based, during 1985, on the adjustment of data from the period January 1975 through January 1985.

(4) Concurrent (revised. X-l ARIMAmethod). The procedure used Is identical to (3) above and the rate for the current month the last month displayed) will always be the some In the two columns. However, all previous months are subject to revision each month banl on the seasonal adjustment of all the components with data through the current month.

(5) Stable (K-li ARMUAmethod). Each of the 12 civilian labor force components Is extended using ARIMAmodels as In the official procedure and then run through the X-l1 part of the program using the stable option. Thin option assuses that seasonal patterns are basically con tant from year-to-year and computes final seasonal factors as unelighted averages of all the seasonal-irregular components for each month across the entire span of the period adjusted. As in the official procedure, factors are extrapolated In 6-month intervals and the series are revised at the end of each year. The procedure for computation of the rate from the seasonally adjusted components is also Identical to the official procedure.

(6) Total (X-1l AREMAmethod). This is one alternative aggregation procedure, in whIch total unemployment and civIlian labor force levels are extended with ARIMAmodels and directly adjusted with multiplicative adjustment models in the X-il part of the program. The rate Is computed by taking seasonally adjusted total unemployment as a percent of seasonally adjusted total civilian labor force. Factors are extrapolated In 6-month intervals and the series revised at the end of each year.

(7) Residual (X-li ARI!A method). This is another alternative aggregation method, in which total civliian employment and civilian labor force levels are extended using ARItA models and then directly adjusted with multiplicative adjustment models. The seasonally adjusted unemployment level is derived by subtracting seasonally adjusted employment fros seasonally adjusted labor force. The rate is then computed by taking the derived unemployment level as a percent of the labor force level. Factors are extrapolated In 6-month Intervals and the series revised at the end of each year.

(8) X-li method (official method before 1980). The method for computation of the official procedure Is used except that the series are not extended with ARIMAmodels and the factors are projected In 12-month Intervals. The standard X-li program Is used to perform the seasonal adjustment.

Methods of Adjustment: The X-li ARIMAmethod was developed at Statistics Canada by the Seasonal Adjustment and Times Series Staff under the direction of Estels See Dag-. The method is described in The X-li ARIMASeasonal Adjustment Method, by Estela Hee Saga, Statistics Canada Catalogue No. 12-564E, February 1980.

The standard K-Il method Is described In X-il Variant of the Census Method 11 Seasonal adjustment Pogroam by Julius Shiskin, Allan Young and John Musgrave (Technical Paper N.o 15, Sureasu of the Census, 1967). -335

|S United States IUVews ofDepartment Labor 4 4 Bureau of Labor Statistics Washington, D.C. 20212

Technical information: (202) 523-1371 USDL .87-137 523-1944 523-1959 TRANSMISSION OF MATERIAL IN THIS Media contact: 523-1913 RELEASE IS EMBARGOEDUNTIL 8:30 A.M. (EST), FRIDAY, APRIL 3, 1987

THE EMPLOYMENTSITUATION: MARCH1987

The number of jobs on nonfarm payrolls rose slightly in March, and unemployment was about unchanged, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The overall unemployment rate was 6.5 percent and the civilian rate was 6.6 percent; these rates had been 6.6 and 6.7 percent, respectively, for 3 consecutive months.

Nonagricultural payroll employment--as measured by the survey of business establishments-edged up by 165,000 in March, following several months of more substantial increases. Civilian employment--as measured through the household survey-was unchanged in March, after also showing large increases in recent months.

Unemployment (Household Survey Data)

Both the number of unemployed persons-7.9 million in March--and the civilian worker unemployment rate-6.6 percent--were little changed from their Febrqary marks, after seasonal adjustment. Likewise, jobless rates for most of the major labor force groups showed little or no over-the-month change. March's unemployment rates for adult men (5.8 percent), adult women (5.8 percent), teenagers (18.1 percent), whites (5.6 percent), blacks (13.9 percent), and Nispanics (9.0 percent) were either the same or little different from February. Jobless rates have declined, however, for most of these groups over the past year. (See tables A-2 and A-3.)

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons--sometimes referred to as the partially unemployed--decreased by 325,000 in March to 5.5 million, following a rise of a similar magnitude in February. (See table A-4.)

Civilian Employment and the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)

Civilian employment, at 111.4 million in March, was unchanged after seasonal adjustment. There were no substantive over-the-month changes among any of the major demographic groups. At 61.1 percent, the proportion of the civilian population with jobs edged down 0.1 percentage point from its record high of the prior month. Over the past 12 months, civilian employment has risen by 2.6 million. About half of the increase has occurred within the managerial and professional occupations, and one-fifth 336 has taken place in sales and administrative support occupations. (See tables A-2, A-3, and A-l1.)

The civilian labor force was also unchanged over the month, and the labor force participation rate edged down to 65.4 percent. Over the year, the labor force has risen by 2.0 million.

Table A. Major Indicators of labor market activity, seasonally adjusted

Quarterly Monthly data averages Category Feb.- 1986 1987 1 1987 Mar. - I ~~~~~~change IV I Jan. I Feb. I Mar. EOUSEHOLD DATA Thousands of persons Labor force 1/...... 120,308 120,943 120,782 121,089 120,958 -131 Total employment 1/.. 112,170 112,995 112,759 113,122 113,104 -18 Civilian labor force... 118,558 119,202 119,034 119,349 119,222 -- 127 Civilian employment.. 110,420 111,254 111,011 111,382 111,368 -14 Unemployment...... 8,138 7,948 8,023 7,967 7,854 -113 Not in labor force..... 62,807 62,800 62,793 62,649 62,957 308 Discouraged workers.. 1,127 1,168 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.

Percent of labor force Unemployment rates: All workers 1/.... 6.8 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.5 -0.1 All civilian workers. 6.9 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.6 -.1 Adult men...... 6.1 5.9 6.0 5.9 5.8 -.1 Adult women...... 6.0 5.8 5.9 5.8 5.8 0 Teenagers...... 17.8 17.9 17.7 18.0 18.1 .1 White...... 6.0 5.7 5.9 5.7 5.6 -.1 Black...... 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.3 13.9 -.4 Hispanic origin.... 10.2 9.7 10.6 9.6 9.0 -.6

ESTABLISHMENT DATA Thousands of lobs ------e ------Z- ._ .-A-. -^ -- --E --^- --- Nonfarm employment ..... 101,072101,838 101,626 p101,862 10p2,026 p164 Goods-producing ...... 24 892 p25,007 25,008 p25,040 p24,972 p-68 7 6 3 7 6 8 2 2 7 7 0 Service-producing .... 76,180 p ,g l 76,618 p , p , 54 p232

Hours of work Average weekly hours: Total private...... 34.7 p34.9 34.8 p35.0 p34.8 p-0.2 Manufacturing ...... 40.8 p41.0 41.0 p41.2 p40.9 p-.3 Overtime...... 3.5 p3.6 3.6 p3.6 p3.7 P.1

1/ Includes the resident Armed Forces. N.A.-not available. p-preliminary. 337

Discouraged Workers (Household Survey Data)

In the first quarter of 1987, there were 1.2 million discouraged workers--persons who wanted to work but had not looked for jobs because they believed that they could not find work. The number of discouraged workers has fluctuated between 1.1 and 1.3 million for the past 3 years. Blacks and women continued to be disproportionately represented among the discouraged. (See table A-14.)

Industry Payroll Employment (Establishment Survey)

Total nonagricultural employment rose by 165,000 in March, a modest increase compared to those of the prior 6 months. Virtually all of the over-the-month employment gain occurred in the service-producing industries. (See table B-i.)

The services industry continued its strong expansion, with a 75,000 increase in jobs, two-thirds of which occurred in business and health services. Employment growth also continued in finance, insurance, and real estate. In retail trade, where there had been strong increases in the prior 2 months (after seasonal adjustment), there was a relatively small employment gain in March.

In the goods-producing sector, manufacturing employment edged down by 25,000. At 19.2 million, factory employment was about the same in March as it was at the end of 1986. Much of the over-the-month decline was concentrated in motor vehicles and in electrical and electronic equipment; each has lost about 30,000 jobs over the past year. Construction employment was down about 45,000, seasonally adjusted, but was still 50,000 above its year-end level. Mining employment changed little over the month, and has experienced little further erosion since the rapid job losses that occurred in its oil and gas extraction component during the first 9 months of 1986.

Weekly Hours (Establishment Survey Data)

The average workweek of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls was down 0.2 hour to 34.8 hours, seasonally adjusted, the same as the January level. The manufacturing workweek also reversed its increase of the prior month with a decline of 0.3 hour to 40.9, still quite high by historical standards. (See table B-2.)

Due to the drop in hours, the index of aggregate weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls was down 0.4 percent to 120.4 (1977-100), seasonally adjusted. The manufacturing index fell by 0.8 percent to 93.8, reflecting both the decline in hours and in employment. (See table B-5.)

Hourly and Weekly Earnings (Establishment Survey Data)

Average hourly earnings rose 0.3 percent in March after allowance for seasonality, while weekly earnings decreased 0.2 percent. Before seasonal 338

adjustment, hourly earnings increased by I cent to $8.90, and weekly earnings were up by $1.23 to $307.94. Over the year, hourly earnings rose by 17 cents and weekly earnings were up $5.01. (See table B-3.)

The Hourly Earnings Index (Establishment Survey Data)

The Hourly Earnings Index (HEI) was 171.8 (1977-100) in March, seasonally adjusted, an increase of 0.3 percent from February. For the 12 months ended in March, the increase was 2.0 percent. The PEI excludes the effects of two types of changes unrelated to underlying wage rate movements--fluctuations in manufacturing overtime and interindustry employment shifts. In dollars of constant purchasing power, the HEI increased 0.1 percent during the 12-month period ended in February. (See table B-4.)

The Employment Situation for April 1987 will be released on Friday, May 8, at 8:30 A.M. (EDT). 339

Explanatory Note

This news release presents statistics from two major surveys, that time; and they made specific efforts to find employment the Current Population Survey (householdsurvey) and the sometime during the prior 4 weeks. Persons laid off from their Current Employment Statistics Survey (establishment survey). former jobs and awaiting recall and those expecting to report The household survey provides the information on the labor to a job within 30 days need not be looking for work to be force, total employment, and unemployment that appears in counted as unemployed. the A tables, marked HOUSEHOLD DATA. It is a sample The lnborfom equals the sum of the number employed and surrey of about 59.500 bou eholds that is conducted by the the number unemployed. The unempioyment race is the Bureau of the Census with most of the findings analyzed and percentage of unemployed people in the labor force (civilian published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (sas). plus the resident Armed Forces). Table A-5 presents a special The establishment survey provides the information on the grouping of seven measures of unemployment based on vary- employment, hours, and earnings of workers on lug defmitions of unemployment and the labor force. The nonagricultural payrolls that appears in the B tables, marked definitions are provided in the table. The most restrictive ESTABLISHMENT DATA. This information is collected defmiiton yields U- I and the most comprehensive yields U-7. from payroll records by ass in cooperation with State agencies. The overall unemployment rate is U-5a, while U-5b represents The sample includes 250,000 establishments employing over 38 the same measure with a dvilian labor force base. million people. Unlike the household survey, the establishment survey only For both surveys, the data for a given month are actually counts wage and sdalry employees whose names appear on the collected for and relate to a particular week. In the household payroll records of nonagricultural fuims.As a resuh, them are survey, unless otherwise indicated, it is the calendar week that many differences between the two surveys, among which are contains the 12th day of the month, which is called the survey the following: week. In the establishment survey, the reference week is the pay period including the 12th, which may or may not corres- - 5,nmohatb d ser. aWtont sod suane -pk, otu. pond dineetly to the calendar week. hoes sen oftd- IMstasun.onebilh- mv -hodf as r .9lrlyed. sarid rasy -.kn. Pin booatld kn-, sod The data in this release are affected by a number of technical ,bn-tw of d-0 tsAnoed F-o factors, including dermitions, survey differences, seasonal ad- -Th bu-hod msev justments, and the inevitable varmiancein results between ridu mr in -rPid I.. .a be a eesd urno. itnbbo sa du at; survey of a sample and a census of the entire population. Each of these factors is explained below. -Te hn-bot M a tfiod e atn 16 yos ur sof ssd o0dm;tne ombhn svs sr faUod bo n; Coweraing,dtdinhtions, and differences - The bnouft saver ba i diasrfu orai.sidub. bemue s iu- belww Suom dhidiaJ ilas W o.1Yta ; Asobmi sner. ,sabr- smbsp ko. u. The sample households in the household survey am selected n buo n ivb m onmns ua on non shinuse Msrg wd be mnd wp...4mso. spsp . so as to reflect the entire civiliannoninstitutional population I6 years of age and older. Each person in a household is Other differences between the two surveys are described in classifsed as employed, unemployed, or not in the lhbor force. "Comparing Employment Estimates from Household and Those who hold more than one job are classified according to Payroll Surveys," which may be obtained from the ass upon the job at which they worked the most hours. request. People are classified as employed if they did any work astall as paid civilians; worked in their own business or profession or Seasonal adjustment on their own farm: or worked 15 hours or more in an enter- Over the course of a year, the size of the Nation's labor prise operated by a member of their family, whether they were force and the levels of employment and unemployment paid or not- People are also counted as employed if they were undergo sharp fluctuations due to such seasonal events as on unpaid leave because of illness, bad weather, disputes be- changes in weather, reduced or expanded production, har- tween labor and management, or personal reasons. Members vests, major holidays, and the opening and closing of schools. of the Aimed Forces stationed in the United States are also in- For example, the labor force increases by a large number each cluded in the employed total. June, when schools close and many young people enter the job People are classified unemployed. as regardless of their market. The effect of such seasonal variation cm be very eligibilisy for unemployment benefits or public assistance, if hrge; over the course of a year, for example, seasonality may they meet all of the following criteria: They had no employ- account for as much as 95 percent of the month-lo-month mentsluring the survey week; they were available for work at changes in unemployment. 340

Because these seasonal events follow a more or less regular from the results of a complete census. The chances are approx- pasterneach year, their influence on statistical trends can be imately 90 out of 100that an estimate based on the sample will eliminated by adjusting the statistics from month to month. differ by no more than 1.6 times the standard error from the These adjustments make nonseasonal devetopmsets, such as results of a complete census. At approximately the 90-percent declines in economic activity or increases in the participation level of confidence-the confidence limits usedby sLsin its of women in the labor force, easier to spot. To return to the analyses-the error for the monthly change in total employ- school's-out example, the large number of people entering the ment is on the order of plus or minus 328,000; for total labor force each June is likety to obscure any other changes unesmploymsentit is 220,000; and, for the overall unemploy- that have taken place since May, making it difficult to deter- ment rate, it is 0.19 percentage point. These figures do not mine if the level of economic activity has risen or declined. mean that the sample results are off by these magnitudes but, However, because the effect of students finishing school in rather, thau the chances are approximately 90 out of 100 thau previous years is known, the statistics for the current year can the "true" level or ratewould not be expected to differ from be adjusted to allow for a compacable change. Insofar as the the estimates by more than these amounss. seasonal adjastment ismade correctly, the adjusted figure pro- Sampling errorsfor monthly surveys are reduced when the vides a more useful tool with which to analyze changes in data are cumulated for several mouths, such as quarterly or economic activity. annually. Also, as a general rule, the smaller the estimate, the Measures of labor force, employment,and unemployment larger the sampling error.Therefore, relatively speaking, the contain components such as ageand sex. Statistics for all estimate of the size of the labor force is subject to less error employees,production workers, average weekly hours, and than is the estimate of the number unemployed. And, among average hourly earnings include components based on the the unemployed, the sampling error for the jobless rate of enmploye'sindustry. ADthese statistics can be seasonally ad- adult men, for example, is much smaller than is the error for justed either by adjusting the total or by adjusting each of the the jobless rate of teenagers. Specifically, the error on monthly components and combining them. The second procedure change in the jobless rate for men is .26 percentage point; for usuallyyields more accurate information and is therefore teenagers, it is 1.25 percentage points. followed by ass.For example, the seasonally adjusted figure Inohe establishment survey, estimates for-the 2 most current for the labor force is the sumnof eight seasonally adjusted months are based on incomplete retums: for this reason, these civilian employment componests, plus the resident Armed estimates are labeled preliminary in the tables. When all the Forces total (not adjusted for seasonality). and four seasonally returns in the sample have been received, the estimates ae adjusted unemployment components; the total for unemploy- revised. In other words, data for the month of September are mentis the sum of the four unemployment components; and published in preliminary form in October and November and the overall unemployment rate is deived by dividing the in final form in December. To remove errors that build up restlting estimate of total unemployment by the estimate of over time, a comprehensivecount of the employedis con- the labor force. ducted each year. The results of this survey are used to The numerical factors used to make the seasonal ad- establish new benchmarks-comprehensive counts of jwutments are recalculated regularly. For the household employment-against which month-to-month changes canbe survey, the factor are calculated for the January-June period measured. The new benchmarks alsoincorporate changes in and againfor the July-December period. At the time the first the classification of industries and allow for the formation of half year's factors are calculated (upon availability of data for new establishments. December),historical data for the previous 5-yearperiod are subject to revision. For the establishment survey, updated fac- ton for seasonal adjustment are calculated only once a year, Additional astatstics and other Information along with the introduction of new benchmarks which are In order to provide a broad view of the Nation's employ- discussed at the andof the nest section. mnct situation, aLsregularly publishes a wide variety of data in this news release. More comprehensive statistics are contain- Sampling veaeability ed in Employment and Earnings,published each month by Statistics based on the household and establishment surveys aLS.It is available for S4.50 per issueor S31.00 per year from are subject to sampling error, that is, the estimate of the the U.S. Government Printing dffice, Washington, D.C., number of people employed and the other estimates drawn 20204. A check or money order made out to sheSuperinten- from them surveys probably differ from the figures that would dnnt of Documents must accompany all ordems. be obtained from a complete census, even if the same question- Employment and Earningsalso provides approximations of naires and procedures were used.In the household survey, the the standard errorsfor the household survey data published in amount of the differences can be expressed in terms of stand- this release. For unemployment and other labor force ard eror. The numerical value of a standard error depends categories, the standard maorsappear in tables B through J of upon the size of the sample, the results of the survey, and other its "Explanatory Notes." Measures of the reliability of the factors. However, the numerical value is always such that the data drawn from the establishment survey and the actual chances are approximately 68 out of 100that an estimate based amounts of revision due to benchmark adjustments are pro- an the sample will differ by no more than the standard error vided in tables M, 0, P, and Q of that publication. 341

HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA TsbI A-.1EmPloynlM.. stat- of tho POPuuk, hwcoig A8md Fot.. he Unftd Sta., by sx

" -8H -. - -T

'- 1087 3787 I'08 088 3088 1s75 F;8 lar.

u a ...... L...... -a-- pnf ...... s.. TD ...... Is 15.1 ," L' ". o I I1IZ.;8 112. ';: EIV1--. n .lo ...... I..s -i:", n Aa C _...... , "i, Vlnq~d...... "'1 ...... 'o. , ...:." ";:1": ...... N IpT: ...: 1.111' '. M U" O... W ...... 4.12 12.1LI ': "" I UO ...... I.: ... 1.1- .21: 'z' -'i, u w...... nh...... 11- p ...... ":,2, .,: "" t h~ W, ...... I... 1" 11 , .. n ...... I I;'. ;, . II: W- a08810 -- *.1 .gl...... I,- U1.1 ...... "'.1 , :5" ,o:,., I _..P...... I I.. I.. I.. .11I., U _ Q ...... I'.7 1 - ...... M:'." :,:O"." 5.X .:1 : ~W...... s- .5.1 I., Tl...... ~~_...... 1;11 ."ii. "i, 1. ;;: .1 ; ", .,. I I ."'i, .E...... AmlF...... Is, 11-1 ...... Ull..mp ...... ": .. I11; I : %,, T ""; I. I I.. I., I., I., I., l _ Ill. ,o. a - r~3 fl n a *.aa~ . J.....L..L _ __ I ___ I a -oI.00808p22.* *.8500 30 8101. ute.p01ISWta w a ...8Oap Ta 0300887 1.030 88. 0828308528031~po80133 * 183000710001 P-0. 88010 80 ~38 80010 4130 Fc. 00008 01t 3218 . ft-01.01.8.21. ISO eli. 342

HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA TOb AtZ Employnmet slats oflt. clvUDn popl alll n by gm and ag

8 _a_... 1 - , i I ' ; .' I

I 7I 78. I a. Na. 83.1 O. I . 194. 9.

mn^r

Cm w 4 ccn ...... 117.t471s1 .ss _...... 44.$ 111.034 III -7 109.444 llO.ZZ E.~t ...... 110.2l *jjS3 0.1 I0. 45.2 Is., U o O-Y...... *.50s I.,Z u nlp'lL.A ...... 7.Z 510;73 Is. I Ill. IZ T$.Z: S9.: 1 . CS1 -00nonbn04 Wfm | 03832a5 IIIIW ...... _ Is., ;3.5 Clnlb I ...... s0.2 1 . fttd...... 7Z.8 An1n...... ;~...... 8 . s7 .IS Z.ZOI. s 1iis2 7L.5 55.551 SZj Tl.0 ;OWI~i~.1 ...... 52.: Ud...... ,5:.sX .1:21 U _"ns...... 2..,:

*.0 S^.. CldlI,.nnsb ra _ ...... SZ., *8.,32I T3.5 CMih...... I .t I,.., ftftk s ...... *.":7" 7.I *a-50 _.V...... *,21 W.Ar..PP niiB ...... Z.177 55.s II: ' 2 5. 2Z 7 .s05 Aocli ...... SZ. I8.Z' NOII~d ...... 54.5 6.. ,,, 2 .ldlS SZ.S Ul-ll""" ...... ,.17I 55 .ZT 5. -~i I I h I l ...... I.. I ,.5 N 1.I 11.0 *7.243 1e6Ios Is SZj7; *; .s , CN4|f1n Wsswon...... 6-1 Cloh.B ...... I: '.001 *4.557 I..415 Fl.._IIAbI .... :...... la.. 1-.X E..dY ...... El ~ul. 8nnW ...... 17.1Z "--VW in;...... 1.4 ...... *.Z2 U.., .. n......

l l. l l l . _ *7T .0 3PII- N 5.o ,. w8 8 -W a n fi . 9-tn 0. 13 .,3 7 P -W 36 n a - 33 5 4` -2 f 73 a 18 3 ,a 8 , 4 t . 3. 38 m i f l1.1A s 3 aw 7 "6J a -f l n s0 343

HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA Ta. Empomvng tt of . ciin POPaO b.bc FOu OM, MMd, HIds cst

ae-W_.5n_ __a

11_ne~ 3ah"*r. Fob7 So, a,. floe. 0.os. 'Jo,. Fob. t1 ,.

wmm O~llanna...... 053Iln 1 '53728, laoI...... I4V ...... 300.55 t eff0 - 15.2 158 101,035....102.1 o37 101,233I 1 Z 02.55 s s0.03 1 3 i on ...... 1'02. 75 302,3a53 to02,,,, . 5.1 5.2 L.. P.I3 5. 5.7 5.7 5.7 5. .7 EffblsIIalsoo-.,aomw...... v...... ss 30.201 .53 00.0 01I.0 *I.3 *01.3 0 55.717 50.205 50,93 l40,sd 1.7 01I.8 01.5 02 .0 02.0 SI_>e.4slras.lo..... 0..574 *.432 *'.105 0,253 *.1 '.5 ....0.5 ...... 0.0 0.2 7 5.970 0.02 5.850 5.75 *'.0 5.0s 5.5 5.7 5.s _311 .9_ 53.350 53,050 53.'00 55.532 53,015 54.372 55.182 54,175 l bw 54.107 Ellplofyab.nls ...... 70.3 70.3 50.333...... 1 70.2 70.5 70.7 70.8 Emcboswcl~ooglasow 50.540 50.850 50.0,5 51.005 51.206 70.7 70.., 70.3 ...... 7. 73.1 51.0257 51.302 51,004 73.7 73.2 74.4 74.0 74.5s U ...... 27 .00 75.5 7s.5 U ...... 5.0 2.517 27,20 2.300 2.005 2.013 2,7,5 01 .1 5557...... 5. 5.2 5.1 G4.111a03o11o_ 40,028 51.05 51.855 PolbIposssro 40,823 01,540 51.514 51,0 4sO1,702 t 55.5 41,0s20 55.1 55.0 55.5 55.1 55.0 nlobyd.3...... 8.522 55.2 55.2 55.3 SS.570 5. 08,51. 3l,35 59.450 30.50 5,75 5,805 ...... s....i..o.3 4 5..25...... 1.5 35t1131s50d 52.3 52.3 52.4 52. 2,330 2.0020 1.55 2,307 52.7 2,141 2.058 2,111 2.020 1.58.

lll l .oo...... 3...... 7 0.850 bIpcloX ...... So83.aa,. . 103*3018 *~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~711 000 *.817 _n.S0.85 0.35 33~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~755 33.2 53.3 57. .. " 0 2 EIIolo.2~lsq41i 50 57.3 57.8 50.5,. ..57.5 ;5.35 5.*201 5.34 5;021 3.751 5,7'1 5.8522 3,850 5.75 Ut-psy . 05...... l n D.t...... 15.0 I,007 020 103 3,057 S7 ...... 10.5 10.1 15.0 10.0 15.1 17.0 s.5 13.2 15.0 13.2 15.5 w o m 15.5 10.3 IS.5 10.1 10.0 - 14.0 135. 14.1 .17.1 ~~~~~~~14.2 15.7 15.0 13.8 14.3 135.

Cl.IoOnaO3*0141107ul.ofo,3.J.30,085...... 1sfi IAC1~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~`20,210 SbIll., 0: ...... 20,245 10.005 20,120 20.152 .2I'.20.107 130,oo 2.475 12.090 1200$7120334 20,218 20,245 PIsbeos3*4nad 12.714 12.707 12,811 12,957 12.044~ 02.7 02.8 02.7 03.5 U iniw 03.2 00.1 03.0 5.1 03I.4 1004S;' 10.825'25 10,27 10772 0 510i 1051 1357i 11,101 1.033 5 3 .l. 3 . 3 . 53.0 54.0 54.2 3...... 3.psua $ 4.2 5 .4 54.5 54.51 5 . .. 5.031 51,08 8275 1 702 5.8t0421 571. 5 17304s S383 13.-Ai4 155728i 14.5 15. 34 1 2 77713.7 15.3 1 14.1 .5

...... _ ...... o.s "4 wl-3I2 .a: ...... ~ ia5.858i 5.52i 5.204i.7t 5..502 55.0 5...... 5245 5.5 5...... 5,934l 5.O7 7 j5.005.7 ,12i00.0i 5.3500.1

PClbdOlnboraon-1_ 7454 75.3 74.2 73. 75.5 745 74.5 75. E 2n1t . ...5 . . 13...... 74.0 PwllIs la .o ...... 58 5 5.5 5. _ l~~~sO~~~os~~~~d 705.. 5. 0 . * .5 . 5.5 5...... 2 5221773 73 743 725 =W.'.''.''.'.,,o . .... 2.5 72 73252251S. I2 5 00. 7 237 770 ...... 12.2 12.0 12.7 123 1 5 12.3 712 32 7 Lao,0o000, ~ 083* 30s~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 71 M 1, Petoboososralo 35.1 30. 30 .7 30.3 35.0 50.1 4 0 E§oplsvs~~anvsopabososraos 22.5 22.7 22.3 2S.2 25. 253 Us03s~~~~bols...... 24. 200- 24.5 .... 42.5 327.2 3.330.5 5. 0 3OSS 8. 3.0 V~~onwo SI 5 30 2 38.3 42.2 07.0 30.5 43.2 OS.5~~~~2:30.4

030b~~so~stl~osm~ofpopo...~~,, 12.215 12.052 12.73 12.215 255 1,4 203 3.5 12.73 13 .p ...... 7.030. 7.45 57 E~~lpI~~leor3.-s~~a...n,4...... 05 7,47 7440 7,533: 7.05 5S 3 50 7 5.5 0. 703 5. 5. 55.0 02 0. 3051213.,..71o.... 0.100.5.4 10.3.9.0.30..10.0.5.0... da m. .op .a...... o. l o lo s b o M 0 Th 0. * t , ~ - b . a a 8 o~ ol a o, w n. 8 1 . * , ~a.Us- 3*lsooao-l-a 0in-bto - -oao.S~df3rla0sl8r.aoom.S 8oao .n 344

HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA

CAN" 5s,. 5.7.7*. 58,. 55. S~c ... . .5.. 5,

5..a5005255W55-. 7*57.4 15.05 775.s225 755.57 75552 5750577 .577577 .S2 777.1505

27.577 27.005 M755,55 ...... 205.77725077 27.0225.225 27.5.2077 20.7705.5 27.555057 27.505055 27.525.5 .50 5.5

_TAJO U AMCLAN OF W

...... 7...5 7.375 7.55. 7.055 1 .552.. 02 7 .250 .. 7 7,- 5523.05_805355 5.552 7.207 7.555 5.555 7.425 7.555 $*7.07 7S5- 7,78 W55520 ...... 352 52 735 72to 152 75 720 755 q~~~~~l~~~~~0.25555 25.s0g2 2707 5 8.0 l 505 22550 22 755 25850s _70.505 70,575 50 25 10.105I V457.4 70.572 70,552 70.505 . 55.535 87.570 *Z.205 0750 52.572 82.725 F03.735 5527 83.205 ft5 d55 7.X38 7.728 5.755 5.227 5 .75 5.755.205 7 20-7 .ZZ7 W.d 3 ...... 72 7.5.5 5....7 7 7 . ,7508.7758.550 5,722 5,707 5.0507

75vo0d5.2 ...... 254 257 255 255 252 250 250 255 27 sMoINIAT @05 PM553NMP

All _5b r 2,557 2.052 2.55*0 2.7552 2.555 202.5542 2. 75 555 25 5 5.85...... 2.. 22..55 2.50 2,555 2.717 2,07 2.55 .2 2.02 57to 74,777 75,557 15,745 75.775 75.027 75.877 75,575 75.5078 174.0

_ _"", 2.27.. 555 2.2.0 2.0 2.50 2.25 2.2 2.345 2.27 40554155dp.5.5055555 . ,05 2,505ZO 2.555 2.875 2,020 2.705 2.505 2.752 2.525 750082p7* 75.525 745.55 75.057 75.s55 7s5.57 75.555 75.755 75.507 75,052

Vok.o~yP.5 . 5 b.b5 ...... 11S .50-0 1451b0 5 - _5 _5 587O."-t5555555152 ob w 55.a

Table A Rsa 01100 UMnlSl_WS.'besd On 1111s dllibrills of 8muWyuh Wthd labw tome,

4k, _ ...... U.1 PaSS U3ot-o U--Ptow _o25is V- l_-od755.2555.575 - 755 7257 755

U4 87.510pa5500555u57S700 55 5. .5 55 5 . .5 0. 5.2

.W5 5*Vt .. 5.5 5.5 S..5.4 5.4.. 5.7 5.2 5 7

d255 0.w -a~b70. 0. 0.45 0.3 0. 0. 0.24

505 Tn1 -__ to5 5t No I. l 0 5 towdooiooodpo , ...... 7.5 7.5 0.5 0...0.0.0.0 .5

U.b ...... 7.7 7.5 05 02 0.7 .7 .7 0.0

W4 TO550J5b88755045805o75 , WM5.5P. bf _ - e to mdo _ "Ie l b _ d _ot %s 1 9f Wua r ...... ~a ...... '. v., 1. .2 . .0

117 bJItd -i_ -p ^ 1_ ... * m cf _ 8.. r555 0504 555525255 . [email protected] 2.0 2.2 ..O 0.^N

I 5555 7557._525. 5555 .. 50 345

HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA T". AG Selected __employmmt Indictor. seasonally a*_usW

-- "-l

707. F70. 3 .. 7.,. 300. 0.e. J.... 3... 7..

7cbl 1?3nxdour...... 0 o ...... 4.572 4,2 4,32 7.0 . .7 .a 0.7 0. n~ .4 3...... 57 .2...... 2 0.0 0.0 5.7 5.- 5nfl33ned. o_...... 0 7 . 33 38...... 3 2.7 2,057 S . 5. 5. 5.8 5.0 Ib0_13713~...... 30737 I 7.s03 3..43 0.424 8 .433s.2 37.3 37.7 30s.0 33.7s

...... * 73 72 4.5 .5 4. .2 .2 4. O ...... *.557 3,432 3.30 5.3 s.0 . 4. . 4.5 7 ...... 7 2 07 30.3 .7 .8 7. . 7

Fo.3738 ...... 0 0...... 2 P3333 .SO 33 3.047 7.530 7.3 7.3 8.3 * .3 3.7 7.2 L73730umob . - __ 3....3s 7.7 7.0s 7.0s 7.0. 7..4

70n0,032S370W37dWW0 0 240 33738 0.0P 7.3 7.3 0.0 0.7 0.4 .5 UO*Uo 33.....0s 37 ...... 83 330. ....34.0 74.3 74.3 32.4 7.3 Ot_ ...... 770 ....737 ....747 ...30.0 3S.3 33.7 32.2 37.0 32.3 Mwafodtx 3,01.73 3,477 3,074 7.2 7.3 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.7 D00 73...... 7 333 040 0.7 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.3 0.7 l gn.3 0...... 73 470 057 7.0 7.7 7.7 0.0 0.7 7.3 AM.37" p3lbl_ P..303 247 283t 4. 4.0 4.8 4.3 4. _ v JD737 ...... 7,73 3,s00 3.r03 7.7 7.2 7.2 7.5 7.2 7.3 3m038F___~ 3.030...... 3.003 3,24.0s 0.Z4 ..3.3 5.Z25.4 4.7 ...... 7 . . 22 237 237 32.3.333...... 33.0 33.0 3.2 3.7

Th A.. D _eloel _ 0neom.o

W.348338 -- - 2- -_ 70del "ar~~~7.. 7.0. 78r. 78,. 003. 0.3. 487. 7.5. 70,. 378 3srt7017 370 370 3730 3780 370 7737 3787

IL037837 3,374 0:230 3.003 3.3 53 .332 3,30 35s.430 3.307 3,303 0 2 4 .3 . 2 . 20 20.3...... 477 2447 mw 6o-ftem ...... 0 .2 . 22 22 7 2.7 2.0 2.I I 205 7.4 ...... 4.3 . . .0 4...... 8 74 2 . 7 7 7 0.0 0.0

7in137...... 330.0 300.0 333.0 308.0 303.0 300.0 300.0 333.0 333.3

507W 53. 33.i 32.7 33.2 33. 03.iD2 33. 03. 33.32 7Sfl*34...30...... s.3 27.4 273s 20.7 27.0 274*. 27.0 20.7 2.03 .3.0 33. 3 4 3 .23...... 32.7, 12 7 3 1237 3 23 .71_e...... :...... -,. . .1- 7 11.54 -~ s5 -4 I .41 ..0 346

HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA Table AS. Reasonfor unemploYbInt

a- " o -0-

oem~~~~~~~~H00. F ab. 0.,r. 8c|r. Hov. D3.3. J4.4. F84b. H8

.U33EROF O81OuPtonM. .071 3. 30 -. b4 .4...... 2...... 4,1 4 2-.822.8...... * O . I . .355 .20 .8...... 073 .07 , I0 O Dw pb.o ...... 3 .34 .2 3, . .2...... 42 .877 J73.b Z. 023 0.05 e034 Z0 7.053 7.0S3 8s077,z0437,000 7390.77. l...... 04 ~ .0 ,7 .05 704 700 053 0058 0007004100 700.0 Tobounwvod 7...... 00.0~ 700.0 ...... 700.0 ....700.0 700.0 700.0 700.0 700.0 - .3.3...... 52.3 42.0...... 0.7 . 4.0 4.3 48.2 48.4 O 72.8 .. 75. 75. 73.8 7...... 7.7 70.5 74.0 72.5 5|t535.3 j57 5 07*Job700*33 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.0. ....35. 7 ..... 44.4 ..... 35.7 .... 35. F_0...... 24.2 ...... 24.2 25.0 23.7 ...... 24.8 25.3 24.7 25.3. 23.0 . u ...... 7

...... H_.377330...... 8 .7 0 . 0 0 0

Table A4 Unemployed peons by sex and age, *"wonally aijusted

na.~ [ . Oh. 7 000. 7f*r003.8 7 8o.e. 8 an.. 010.4. 7 71 70. 7003 7007s Ls~ss?'' ssL a 1' 8 . ,I.6 u.ol6-s~ ...... 7.2 18t04wd ...... ,230 u I,:5,5., I.:', t6.o197_ ...... 2... 21 16 017~ ...... I, 2. 1 ii! I'11 .eX2 ,': 7 I "a o BY...... 520 3: " :2 ZO" 24y...... 745D5I I, IIS 4,472 E:' ::2 BE -v4 .Mro...... "I24 I Sol54 I N E S 0,5tO4hi ...... I I: WF-_| ...... II 2.-07$I: 1, :05 *w1t2 "If44 I .s I .1 MMIG_s .oo...... I: I UNR2u _ ...... ,II I : Z5 I09 '. 3 1 ,: 11.1 11., 7o.,8070a220_0.....~1 a...... ":I I'.. .1:2 I.. I 2 255 *054 2. 5 21 .. :I., Is. r7_- ...... -S :1:2 I . R, 01V...... I.-s ":S 20aoMWt~...... T, 1N 5:, T; I.: 25.""a ...... I , S.. 25fl4B_ ...... S:, 3.. 2.47 I"Is «saM aow ...... 1 I . II:3 I5- 3s5 ,2 . ,I ,2., ,I:I 16to2...... 2t1 12' 11 .I *s*D19Y...... 12.: -2 1;.0 31, ,,2 IW 01" " ...... , :2, Is.3 ".I '..I 120.24 l...... S., E.: '. 710 S.. . 5ad0...... T, I 1 N N 5. S 25.5f4 a ...... I., , : I 55f Mdo...... :3 2. 1 2.1 347

HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA TableA-t1. Employmeit s1t8 o0fblack and oUw

~~- - -t ...... 0. . . . . 8

C~lnsri...... biXSSTZZSsS1 SiZ14OiZv1 Pwfte~t1alla*...... s 11,4 .3 34.0 33.8 I 3.5 4.2 34.2 34.2 83P33F. . . . Is.4.303...... 7035,3 3 4.3333 bm n lW3o 54.3 553 b5.5 35753.. 5.7 533...... 2 333m33o 2..3...3 233 213 .35 .,,2,38 2.3 2.-3 U3333033"`3 .. 3. 2 $. 3.4 32.3 32.3 32.3 32. 32...... * Z O o ~ X . s1$ Z. T SS.." V.-4 S&.O S

'38030333033333.3 - 2 =It03 w 0 3T3 3CMZ3nd33P-.3 0 f30ll8n1 W3 0m 833803-. d33381808 83038733030203w

Table A311. OeClmpationalstahs ot bs emloed and unsiplDY4 not seasonally adAtd

8.,. 8.r. . ., . .8. ... 8. 3383...

Total3383.338 16~ 307.343 330.228 8.337 3.324 7.5 3. U8I3W8383033o3.83033332313 .... 2..0...... 4..5.30.2.4 2.3 383...30f03..3333.3238303...... 75.3....353..8.2.8 2.3, ...... 2.... 73 280..288 2. I. T303333383.8 ...... S3 3.730 5.3 3.8 7.333338387 3888833303 ... 7....2....328..87. 3.7 2.8' 3833033833303 858 3.4.203 723 7 5.5 5. ol o l _ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~~ ~~~~~~...... 18.|s13.'4. 4.

P333300*30 80 835s 35 54 3. . 3333833488803303 733 3.887 333 37 3.3 3.noooocao~ ~ ~ ...... 33.082 3.42 I.28 8.8 3.3.

833888338833 330p 4.528 223Z 203Z O5.0 o.s

C03035_bft3 Ik3 .27 3..4 3.733 373 32.7 S 3.

l~~ollrW__O~~~~~l_ T~.s...... 1ZM . , O .T1 10.1 bo~onlbino_ bZ9 *S SS e~1. O.. 2......

332033835.833333 ...... f43 .5 ZSS':330 M. 3...... of~~~~~~~h~~~~~dwdewC~~~~~~~~~~~S'-T 33 3 33. 233S'S$w 245- 2I.0IN , Z3 28.52

An o .2 FI8ln Ihe wn-21UI.

79-018 0 - 88 - 12 348

HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA TabO A-1L Emple*oyt slatu oi male Vlsnum*rd avetwans a mmetes by ade. not soally adMtd

-_-m

-a~ ~ ~ ~ a_

".,i 1 ". ~~~~~~~~"., ". ".. , sT" . I; ...... 2.3672 :2.52 377 ?20.4 7.377 'A2.32 3 ~ :.: 4.

T3037 734 3 . 73.334202 2~75' 7~.153 73.73 26.36717,2 .23 .322 05 ...... 255 2 '&5 .gS ,I.I2I57 1,.,1 5 6 Sf

30707.73003 3.3084 3, 5 T.I 3.023 1.30 1s7.033 437 4632 6.°2 3.6 43.3.0 .. 54. 5 .,301 .337 3.042 .642 231 277 6.2 3

A 3 7'7 -hl 74 d.* .3,da fm 3 ft 730- 4 349

HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA Table A-13. Employmnt status of the cmilan populatlon fr elen large ESates Ve -10-.y2 ~~~.-ftI~~~~~~~~~~38 -*~ 20 - -- - I if~N;I-T'';i I im;i I if.; I ,,;; I -I ';iJ.;.;I I I - i

00a ...... 2.3 002 2.0 002 2.7 004 2,0 '0000 2.* t10300 20,309987 20.03 0070 2.084 20,823 203.,0 22,.5 2.7 .23 U 9d . 2 900 060 01 003 807 033 207 027 71 *07 6.3 *.9 608 6.7 6.2 6.2 6.0

08.inOO~~~~~n~~op.1fl~~~~a7 1_41mBb .. 343s00.030 3.00.333 3,223.333 ~~~~~~~I0.000:,2603 0.2I 0:,32 0.00 I.3 3.0057 .76243 37720 i7 727 30 }3.3 §37 E.00, . .. 4 3.522 3,430 16.02 3,004 .049 5 3.094 3,040 332 1 . . . 320 300 322 333 320 270 300 3 723 . 3.8 I . 3.4 0.2 3. 2 . 1 3.36 3.0

'c8.317a527001988602 062 846 .67 0.052 866* ,00 2.474 8.674 .0787 7 E070W.. Eft.0 ... 3.223,023 3.03730 3.122,30 3,270300 3.222,0 3.220 5.203I.2,20 73.2003.03 3,006I.2 2W3_4 ... 30 40 43 40 4 20 403 3 3 ...... 3.2 B.3 a.. 8.0 7.4 7.. I., 7.7 7.,

O.02a700s042Mb" poO 4,34703 3.3034.307 4.34 04.3 ,33023 .083 4303 43607 _NOl 2,300 2.§80 2,002 2.043 2.322 2.330 6I_1.. 2130 117 2.040 2.003 2,033 130 1012 22112 2 20X0 003 221 ...... 3. 0.5 3.8 4.0 33 0. 3.5 3.0

IY bn 8407. 0.4 0.003 0.000 6000,440 0.882 0.888 ,8907 0,903 0 b ef. .. *.2,002 ,032 4,003 2..... 947 4.72 4.. 4,4.0 o0. 24a,.u,8 4074 o7 30 3 2 370 306 7373 362 3 337 °302 302 1 _-,P0...... 6 80 8 0. 0.2 0.0 8.7 0., 0.3 0.0 _83

Acllaw D ~~~~3820.8053 3.330 3.800 53,900 2.00 53.037 53.900 3.9703 _70 . 0633 3.707 3.08 Ih b1 P-P~ ::::::,: ;::II 088 60 3.0 2737 0.727 3,728 3,700 3,820 ~ 20 200 2771220 013 130 102 120 __1973030 * . 4.0 0.0 4.3 4.3 4. .4 3.0 4.0 0.7

Ca70,w7000894 1S3.720 03.702 13.706 13.720 23.742 100727 13.73 13.762 03760 a31d~~~~b¢@~~8.300 8.389 0.430 8.338 8.378 8.423 0.300 8.484 8.322 _09d . 7.700 7.923 0.000 7.002 7,803 7,020 I44l .. 04 *.003 .00 8,009 400 030 33. 493 302 302 403 C~ 3S p ..... 0.0 3. 403 363 6.7 3. .0 3.3 4.0 4.0

08,,0000f80p4889 .7033 *0.00 .800 0,703 0.783 0.032 1>_blW0n. *.802 *.803 4.020 3.242 3.333 3.230 3,200 3.201 3.221 3.271 3.230 3,000 _ 0.08 _2.On3 ~~~~~~~~2.0043.079 2.300 3.020 .09 3 .023311 3.220 3,007 270 080 000 070 272 073 030 008 037 60,i s ...... 31.7 3.0 4.0 3.3 3.4 3.4 4.8 3.2 4.

c..m.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ pld.f Sa . 8. 09 8.124 8.227 0.090 8.022 0,003 0.222 .0624 8.007 C131bR .. 3203 3.203 3.034 3.290 3.204 3.270 3.200 3.303 3.223 _O04. 4.800 4.032 0,749 0.090 0.873 4.802 4.830 4.008 4,834 _knO~ ... 00 473 403 402 838 _ 1_n80a .... 1....9 403 437 033 302 9.2 7.9 7.6 7.4 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 am 0m. _, 8 ...... 20 9,000 3.- 9.200 0.228 0.230 0.204 9202 I200 0.20 O.91,IOem .. 63.3 3.427 _mb~d - 3.400 3.722 3,337 3.328 3.*10 3.302 3.330 ...... : 2..6..3 .070 183.88 3000 3.801 3..29 b a 2 3.22 3.27 3.12 3.200 . 440 343 3.0 403 343 233 0Nw40 3 ...... 343 300 320 7.0 0.0. 0.2 7.0 0.2 s.4 0.0 5.3 3.9

012,32 1.034 12.09 02.92 '.0II I2.089 .2..2. A2.a34 02.034 fl85in.. 8.023 8.220 10.70 * 8034 0.300 .334 8.203 8.323 8.034 _ 7 7.068 7.438 7.403 0.308 7.330 1_ ...... ~~~~~~~0308677 739 7.007 7,302 0,000 00 030 730 00 4 730 720 040 ...... 7.8.4 0.2 0.2 8.0 0.0 3.0 9.0 0.7 0.0 - -- - - 0 - .me, 0.fl - - - .s -n - .o 350

HOUSEHOLD DATA - HOUSEHOLD DATA

Table A.14. Peosola rot In labor fore by maseec and race, quarteuly avrga

-.- _- _ . _ ,,___._ 784 1td7 laS I1'".7

T7lllh '10 ..4403.04 4...... 2.S.2...... 07 2..00

O ...... 00 7. S 7.074

Oll 47:C2 4,200 4.107 4 ' 4,0 4040 4.002 4 Z592 '4,40 lal_ Z~~~~~~4.491 24,140 24.734 24.407 24.474 2Z,000 24.2EO

0_, 4.407 3.104 4.024 4.474 4.SZ 4,840 .45C 4 _.loo. b l. _. S.94 0.332 0,'0S 4,002 0,380 S.008 3.2 ....1 ...... I.... ,4 4 4.34 4 Sb 1.427 *.54Z 540041 . . 797 004 030 030 303 144 042 30.1 11_.. 4,44 4.225 I,4S5 1,041 *.203 4,347 *.222 b 7 ...... 1.1.11 9 1,10 4.12 1.150 ..... ~ 3 4 343 000 444 2...... 44442 ...... o_0 4...... ,430 4.04 4.470 4.44 4,440 .24

Jl'...... 85*5757X7;S5 7 .3 .2. 4 ,0 2, 2 4 04...... 0.440.400

C4*o0.0..4440 404~ 4350 302z 420 434 403 H 5~~~~~~72 422 442 440 433 430 441 17> _.11...... 1.7 sr4 l,5 s4 - *.8 844 1.5

. 0.t~04. . 344..074.044.474..430.350.414 1o024,4t.40W7_1F 1d~~~~. 5.43,040...... Z.05Z77|7S1e4472'S4Z... D 42.043 42.030 42,344 42,2 04 32,004 42,432 00,64.4.4.. 5.00,0 30.043 30.040 00,304 30,402 00.000 00,440

Wo._. . . . 3,304 3.044 0.043 0,333 4,003 3,702 4,040 ...... 7 2 90 0 74 47 0 .I.. C0...... 400 424 444 42 440 407 447 ...... 3 .22 5 .20 422 .1.0...... 01 7 727 72 ...... 0 7 74 0 72

71410a511..... - hR N 5404...... 044 03,423

...... 0.3..... 0,2 4..04 40,4 43.200 43.44 3.340 ...... _Ojt. b . 454 4,243 4. 4.244,352 4,230 4 .244 4.405 ...... 0 94 7 ,0 7 . ll 4 032 040...... 420 44...0 420 034 4

l l o ...... 43 7 4 741 700 0 00 0 ...... 3 0 3 04 44 44

. 1...... 1_fsZ Z*O 059 7 7.:_h :.I4 ...... 7,430 4.044 7.274 4,230 7.4Z5 7.404 7.344

0002_0I44~4,44 4.44 *r45.-47 0,037 4.027 4,020 0.340

WC3.ld .....0...... r.304 4,4054 4,0 4.23504.2 ,425 4.,4234r .444 0,,_,_,04,, Oad,00, _ 404...... 444 ....304 ....333 .440 004 555 454027,04.400. ....200 ....244 ....220 ...240 402 229

Oh31_,op.Ib.0...... 20 3..44 324 234 274 204 042

- 00400U W 2Zh _0 G -f.t _ 3 00 351

ESTABLISHMENT DATA 613TABLISHMENT DATA

Table B-1. Employees cm m.agdcuftural paymils by Induaby

D,;; "M P

...... T-1 P...... O' 8, .3I. ...9 -85-01'.. a...... 21,313 21.91, 21.92. 25.0.. 25 .0 10 2..112 ...... 10 116 11 116 112 112 is 131 112 131 O'. D. ..,...... 2 - .2 1. 5 .I 1. I 11. 120 11. I: D, ...... 1, 1;11,1 II; DI11 1.131 1,8 33 .:D Dwwft ...... I .2 ..O- ..29. 1.3031 "M-.2 1.111 ..122 1. 1.2 ...... 19.00, 11.12I :12:1 :2, 3 ...... 12,1.I .1..13 .2,9 0 1 1 0 o- g- ...... -...... I..23. 11.211 .1.118 1. .2.2 11,89 11.211 .1.30...... ". '.., ", '.., ". ."I I.. I.- "'...... :::: 19I.: 21 1 111.1. 13,1:0 11,1 "' "' ...... D I" .. '03 'O' 501 -9- P- 1...... 511 11. III .. " M.- ...... I"113:: I' I 21 '7"'S., I' III 112 113 11" a,.., 211 113 216 :I ..I 2:1 I :'I .'IN. l.'1'2" 1.00 1.110 I.110 ...21 ...... 2.- A 2,01I.6 2,16 2 .030 1:11: 2 11 ...... 2 ...... I I I :16 1.:11 1,11'. 11,1:2 -.11 112 11: ...... I .I1 ID I .13:2 1:. 121 III .. 'O, 111.0 319.1 I', .. I'D 3.9 311 ...... 1.14 311 'I N- , q...... ;:III 1 1102 11, 1316 11, 1.1 1:; 13 1 11 I 11 ...... 32 1,111 I.111 1.111 I.111 1.11: T- ...... 0:1 1::'l .'6 T.".. .11. 7.3., 7.., 71, 1,3:, IDI 71 1: 122 1107 121 ...... :...... P- P- 1...... '81.7 "..I 6.. .. 11, 611 11 - ft..D- ft ...... --- .,.93 .,D. "'.. I.,.: C- ...... :0,,,,,:: ::.".9 ,..20 ,Ozl 1.121, 1.01,: ...... 15:3 - 3 151:: 161 1 061 I I," ,I, ,D .2, .2 ...... :::: I "0, : 'O I ,,D., ID.9 111' 153 152 M IS' ...... 15,119 16.151 16 .IjD1 I.:539 16,Il 16.- I..618 16.822 11.05. 1:03.1,2 1:11.1 :.,,I 1:3" 1:31.1 1 1 ,1:11.1 I , 3 I . I ':OO.' 21 ...... 2.21. 1.221 2.233 2,236 2,221 2 .2 3 1 2.231 1.2.6 2,211

W.- 0...... -- ... S.SD3 3 ,6"' 26 I1 :1" 2.1 3I:112 .. 3':"' - I%:5 II " ':. I " ': ...... 11 I 1 2.11D 2 1353 2 36. 2 ,310 2 36. ,369 2 ,311 1 .3. . A-D 11.031 11;11,1 17 11" 121:121 11 I 11 101 121:1131 11:11 1:: I 3 I2 I ;2 .. 2 :1 2'I!:"1 3:, 2I , 11 I I: 3.. 2 :61 1:1 2 :9 5 1 :3 2:18 3 :1 2 :91 3 : 3 2 .901 2 .111 2:111, I 3:01" 3:111 ...... I ',:'12"1:31 '5:.69. 6:'0.. 1 .0 3 5 6,000 6 2 6MG .21 6 ,112 ",93 ...... I:- I:M 3:52 I :01 1 1,220 1 .11. 1 13:2: 3 21', ...... 1 '.1 I,:02 I 7, :"73, I ."O 21.2 .2,1;,Il,3 ."';,M 1,3;,111 IO1j11I 11 '.O' 11 1 13 : III 11 ::.10 23 13: 5 2 . :. . : 112, I O,! ...... :...:3 1 :1 .3 :1 6 :163 :1 I :11 1:. 191 . :91 :.71. I .1 11 ..7.1 1 .6.2 '7 1 11 :1.1 I:, I I , I1 12 101" 11, : :12,1 16 .110 I I .1 1. 1 91 1 121 ::1 112 ::1I & M 17 1,101 3.97 1 1 1 1 1 .3 3 .1. 1 1,003 ...... 0 101, I 0 I I'D 9 .a.9 I ..026 10,030 10 .021 10,005 10,031 352

ESTABLISHMENT DATA ESTABLISHMENT DATA

Table M. Avwag. wktY hoiis of PmoductJonor nomspr_7io workws, on pldvat tal3lcituhrl psyroll,by hduy

* I8888~- 888* o~~~br3er~~4.1 |288f. r.-. |8847. 244. 8447. 0*. J84. 78. 277

2384.3887 19827 2987i 4856 3886 9884 2887 2i8 iD 88;;ii

2188 7..2...... 34.7 3.4 4.7 34.8 34.8 34.8 34.6 34.8 85.0 34..

...... 4 8. )...... (22 (22

CS.,282 ...... 386.4* 327.3 36 .9 37. (2) (22) 222) 222 22(2 2(2) Ma.900oLIK4bi...... 40 .) 40 . 40o.8 40 .8 40 0 3l78...... 0 40.8 40.8 42*1.0 41 .2 40.89 .... . 3. 3.5 3.5 3.8 3.2 3.5 3.5 2.4 3.6 3.0 i bl t ...d...... 412.4 42 .5 42.4 412.4 42 .4 42.4 42.3 42.6 *12.9 42. 8fl)37,83T...... 3.5 3.. 3.6 3.) 3.6 3. 6 3.4 3.7 .7 3.8 ...... *0.0 30.0 40.4 4. 0.8 40 0.4 40.7 42.2 42. Fum p8 58.2 30.4...... 3 9. 3.4 . S703.,022.*0tloo 38.8 0.2 40.1 3 8 t1227 i 42.Z.42.3 44. 42. 42. 42. 42. 442.8 43.I2 425 ...r..... 42.2. 42.4.42.8.4..42.84...... *.4 .2. . 42.8 42.7 hlitsi1ni47 3c784204407*022 42.8rw 44.3 420.3 42. 42. 42. 42. 44. i 40z.4 42 .2 P*47022d705*22OO el~~~twlZnZtim~ ~ bK ~ul...... 42311 4) 1 *1044. 42.5 *09 *1042. *1042. *1042. *1042.5 42.8. 42.50 m67mm*n00)ntn4silht~mtumls...... 5 ...... 42 .2:'I .41.2 4*2. i3liw7l2ntw2202l.3lur52.0 ...... 429.8 32.5S 62 .5 44. 42. 42.5( 42.2( 42.3 42. 42.2Z

"92 t 30.7 40.0.3. .3.If358 40.0 38.8 40.2 40.2 3 4...... 90.2 9 40.41I 40.2 049733442024,2 3... .. 13.5...... 7402877dki4t3t8t747023 078 ...... 39.4 09.8 39.3 3.5 33.8 4.0 39.8 40.0 40.2 40.0 20484403uacu776t2* * ...... 332) 2 T ...... 2) 22 2) .4 4.3 4.6 .8 4...... 40.2 .5 4 3 2.0 4048h t2832025828.23) 07024328...... 36.3 34. 8 37 .2 52.0 34.5 34.8 32.0o 36.89 37.4 37. 0 Ci m/sil2itw 1)*2 i nb i4l. . . 4*3.3 43.5 432 43.28i 43.5 432 43*2.4 43*.4 437.4 43.

P8224I84m82220*3oimX0st4...... 43.2 44.2 40.4 43.3 43.8 43.8 43.4 45.2 44.2 44.0 iubr44.a2243and ml 38oia 22)0s07lcoru ...... 42.3 42.6 43.5 42.4 32)2 203 22) 322) (222 323)( 3483fl878721882587220233028 ...... 34.3 32.3 33.2 37.5 (23 2)3 (32) (22) 3(2)2 223 Ts~sp2288...,28p44284842 33...... 2.4 38.7 33.0 38.4 39.6 33.3 33.0 38.2 39.3 38.3 T .. . . 3.... .2 38.0 38'. 38.3 38.3 38.2 36.3 58.4 38.3 8 T8.*.084 ...... 28.9 48.4 28.2 2.8I 28.5 29.3 2 8.9 28.0 29 .4 29.2 ot Wnst n . .... 0...... 2 34.5 36.5 36.4* (Z (23 32) 22 (3 (2 880288 ...... 1Z.46Z.Z...... 23. 3 . 3 . 3 .1 15.0 1Z.S 1-

4724)23.* . 763.543 ...... 3 . 2)82 1) ( ) 0* 178)83 2 4 8204487, ..4 m m...... 5: 00187 )6 . '053 8 3.6 . (2) 82) 8074874in37 conomstlon: 2*)0'h *4i4835*I*3(I a2 o30 2887334 82220203840*24)834047024*2*777782I*0098d lo7222407107...... 36 3 vt02*32244i20 m7720 v02.0. t3 80202h3tT48i-7 0*47282

2Thvsi s ....23.....3...... i,.tl-h Ib.. .. 60 D n .o2o 8' 3.itnl9ml2933y 353

ESTABLISHMENT DATA ESTABLISHMENT DATA

Table 84 Avers" hourly end wstly .affinp of production or. Fnonsport Workerf, on pi1mat noTagImltural pSayrl by bedevily

.r .~a-...... _-

10pfte ...... $.XJ*.88*.es*~*O.$o*~sa37 S_;X ...... 8.7.s.s .8 c 2.22 - 5 a 12.15 Zl 2.loZo

CBftA ...... 12.2 1 1z.63 12.851.* j s.16.Z7s1 *1- 11

, ...... 10.33 80.88 3.8 0.0.0 $302.032030.23 30.1358333.00 L7030w333822.x00 ...... 8.33 8.20 8.32 8.20 3. 3 37.031 331.73 33101.17

Sbc0o.u.OIpwb...... poo*...... 3 0.3 S10 0.0 170.3 032.10 020.51 000.00 *00.12 P203...... 71:0 20...... 3 00.339. SUB, lZn3 t003 . . . I300.031...... 13. 1.6 :'I I I.: 2.t '10.2333... I 0 . 3...... 3.S3 306 30.63 30.09 00.0 0 .03 0 .3 . 0700330078308380003408007020823...... I03 003.33 Tn,0orun00cqulp.3,7003 ...... 1.s 72.03 32.98 73.03 73.03 3I.7 333.03 333.38 330.33 7in20033C2303S7038000003.. 0.02~~~~~~~~16130 380.3I.3 30.3 303.30303.00 00030~dbuzaulnl0 In~iisus...... 0.73.00...... 2.1 . 12.1873.3.6 .0 I 23.03.0 : :s2:6.' 302.00I 333.30 300.8038I 3a.s 55'1:2 .37 027077 ...... 03 300 ...... 0o3.

FooO.00700.Opooo3 ...... 30 8.80 0.03 2.0 30.30 333.82 330.70 333. ToOoo.3..30,3.o3 ...... 32.30 .03. 13.33 1. 03.3013.30 00.0 I003.20 333.33 33o37hm7773 ...... 0.00 3.73 3.13 .701 030.30 330.01330.00 308.33 0003S0037077002002 s3.0 3++.80 3.80 3.03 277.30 2301.33 278.32 238.30 P8 .803d.07030300008+ 33.0 33.01.731.30 31.73 030.0 003.00 087.80 003.33 0 0o. .4n ...... B3.70 72 9 .2B. 300.07I. I 30 . alA03P0 3 ...... 38 33.73100.10 33.00 40.30 316.35 370.00 317.37 P.0W0.p. .8 ...... 1 .22 70.00 .-70.33 70.30 027 003.00 03.06 030.01 ft~o~o0333780770...... 8.32 8.83 8.04 8.83 300.72 300.03 300.80 300.70 18338083307003080230030228...... 3.86 6.03 3.00 0.00 072.72 230.30 222.30 330.30

T1_ 3P 3 b_ ...... 1 .11 1 .B. '10.1o03......

n ...... 0.33 0. 0.33 0.37 33 .133 1.3 32.900 362.13

. bll...... _ _...... '.03 6.01 6.06 64 - .21 111.Zz17.9- 12 .sz1- *.

0F0008.8._0000080008 ...... 0 . . .3. 0.31 8.00 300.01 373.73 317.92 317.90 . . . 8 30 8.30 2 .7...... 0 0.1 3.3. 2 0.1.0

.00300030083.30bSt6 p. p..O~~oy.

Table8-4. HourlyEarnings Index for production r noosuprvisory worker' 00nprinte nonsgdcultural payrolls by Industry 70037.lo.)

003. 0.B3.

_0(1_2 33.2 0. 8 30. h03 27 03.0 03:3 33.0 00.0 . 00 73 ...... 70.7 780.0 780.5 780. 3 3 04 (07) (7) 07 70 7 ...... 78.3 32.0 737.0 752. 3.8 702.2 730.0 73307 3 7 7 3 7.0 I.. 708 730. 73.2 1738-3 78 I730. 17372 17350 7373 732. 173. . T_ _ _ _ 169 8~737.730. 1 733.3 1735.3 0. B000 703 007l7 70 l707 7 07 70 _723.3 | 738.0 730.7 733.7 .0 733.0 73*.3 700.3 738.0*) 73.( 7 ne"n - - 1733. 780. 383.0 783.0 0. 703 703 7073 7074 707 707 30

__170-20_17.02.72.703.9 76 73 181 17 __ .... 7.. 3...... 8.3.2 .300737.0 3.7300. 354

ESTABLISHMENT DATA ESTABLISHMENT DATA Table B-5.Ind..es of aggregateweekly hours of productlon or nonsoperviory workerson pristo noduagiscuiturol payrolls by Industry

- -. .I .9. 60-. I28-- 9.2. I5877. 2986 2987 298 2sX980

...... 9.1 229l.0l 229.91 220.9 227.4 ...... -.-. -.-.-.-.-.. .- 9 97738. 086. 98.. 98 .1 98~ 99.0 200o.4 202ol.0 9.9...... b -- 92.8 82.0 79.5 79.4 95 .0 82. 82*s.0l 92.9I 82.2

r .cle...... -...... 222.- 522.5 26.2 20.5 1 21 .. 132.2 239.91 138.6 35.5 13. I ...,O.- ISF...... 92.7 52.3 92.0 55.2 13 .3 93.1 93.6 84.61 3.9 93 .1 . . S . .. 1...... 92.6 85.9 90.5 52.9 8 0.51 90.51 92.9 529.2 LmnF> do ...... S' .03 205.2 204o.2 205.4 204.4^ 2.2 276.5627.2 208.2 Slond~ IX CIb ...... ~~~~ 95.5 80.5 97.4 95.0 8 7.7 |09.71 66 90.7 |99.2 ...... ep o3L -ts...... 4 67.0 65.3 94.2 62.9 62sl.9 60.5 456.5 54.2 20. 820460.46 0. 67.4 49.6 50.5 13 4 9 .5 47 .9 49*§.6 50.0 1d:2 9. I 95.41 90.2 89.1 90.3 85.5 86.7 87.2 .5 .1 .53 205.7 202.2 202.2 2102.91 202.5 I *vs sI 205.41ssI 202.611C, Iotuwtad. taelw. ct 57.8 96.2 96.5 96.9 195.6 95.5 994 96.4 B.294 9 5.2 87.2 194.7 20.4 81 .3 205.6 203.2 20.0 204.5 2 05.41 204.2 200.5 80.9 59.2 80.0 9.81 912.5 85.7l 83.41 85.2

95.6w 87. 5w19.519 7. 82.4 56.2 54.0 94.7 I 200.6I00.2 20. 200.7 ^AIlaW0hrt1tl nd- o t ...... 78.5 22.2 76. 0.2 75T.2v*3 :'2 so" s . 9178.4 79.4 0579.4 92.0 92.2 82.9 82.4 94i*l.7 92*.7 85*.5 t 3.2 925.5 95.7 97.2 96.3 .5 I In... 7826...2704829188 ...... S5.68 89.2 96.6 0267027877.2nF2" 0,000228D. I30 .I 2l05.5 205.41 205.6 202.5 228.2 229.5 250.5 202.5 0," :0. 2130.1 232.2 152.0 250.6 SbIIUn n 90908720278andms Wea W ...... 93.6 95.0 90.5 95.6 IOS.1 '95.4 95. 93.8 95.4 58.5 58.8 77.4 75.5 09.0l 82.8 *29d778 92.2l 80.8 22.9 224.6 225.2 226.2 119.5 22l5.2l 245.0 226.51 226.2 ...... 59.5 57.4 57.6 59.3 so2 sl58.5 59.21 60.6l 60.5 22.5 227.4 228.5 228.5 1 21 .0 I s. 2l30.21 250.71 252.01 452.7 I0. 206.2 206.0 207.7 208.2 10. .2 08.2 109.7 1209.51 10.1 22.5 228.2 227.7 229.2 I 2 22l9.21 225.6 220.01 229.8 In..... d. 8.88.7...... 82 . .6 22.7 226.0 226.0 226.9 11 229.21 220.2 222.5 922.7 27.6 259.6 240.2 240.0 I 1 .6 240.5 242.3 4*2.8 124.3

262.5 244.8 246.9 248.2 1 13 .I 1269.2 248.4 2499.7 269.2 . . TSble- .. ...s...ehl . ec I te I w D . m II.Incre.

TableB4. Indexesof dliffsion: Percent of Industiebs In which ehmployment, Increased

5m r i|-4 1 FeF 2A. t , J Ads. 8 O r. L

09.7 | 995 . 52.4 41.8 53.8 49.2 52. 47.0 54.2 56.8 50.8 42.5 57.6 55.5 8089 2995. 51~~.0 545.0 '94.0

5687 1982 5 .5.5.5 7.h 6257 *621 8-7772 2989 . 55.8 55. 67.6 45.5 25.I5 5 4t 48.7 55.4 62.2 40. s.45. iSt O. 9 .. 4 2 2 40 .4.. 4 4 8 5 4 50.2 55 55.9

097 9. a . 2.7 47 4694794 7 .9 6 .5 .5 2 9. 50.7 5.2 2.25.. 4 5 5..' 55.5 955. 955.9 SFn...... 027...... L...... 2997......

N un - .- -1,7d7868 71 37,58d67-2 86507086500. 9 NO7497t707 RW2478.. 7.76-.- 0520662 .7i26092252925.0I . T77 -48-70 1242-09D 5 D.7.0822927820 -767 0 'v72p2n73b6 78 4 7 7d74086876 Ud7im2 . I8D86n98080.277O72886 355 Senator SARBANES. Thank you very much, Commissioner. I have a couple of almost technical questions at the outset. The overall unemployment rate includes the military as being in the work force and as employed, is that correct? Mrs. NORWOOD. That's correct. Senator SARBANES. And then the civilian rate, of course, excludes them. That's the essential difference? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. Senator SARBANES. I notice that they differ by a tenth of a point this month and my recollection is that that has been about the difference-well, let me ask the question without recollecting. What has the difference been between those two rates since you made that change-which was, what, about 2 years ago? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. Generally, the civilian rate is a tenth higher than the overall rate, including the Armed Forces. Once in a while, there may be a two-tenths difference, but that's due to rounding differences. There generally is a one-tenth difference between the two rates. Senator SARBANES. Between overall and civilian? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. Senator SARBANES. I've been looking at the level of long-term unemployment and according to the figures we've been looking at there are more than 2 million who have been unemployed for 15 weeks or longer. Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. Senator SARBANES. And more than half of them-in other words, something over a million-have been unemployed for 27 weeks or longer. Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. Senator SARBANES. My first question is, are these figures unchar- acteristic, and in effect very high for this stage of a recovery period? Mrs. NORWOOD. They are much higher than they were this number of months after the recession in the 1970's. Of course they had been considerably higher right after the 1981-82 recession. They were about double what they are now. So they have come down considerably since the recession, but they are higher than they were before the recession. Senator SARBANES. According to our calculation, if you look at the long-term unemployed as a percentage either of the labor force or of the total number of unemployed, you really have to go back quite far to find a comparable situation. As we calculate it, currently 26 percent of the unemployed have been out of work for 15 weeks or more. In other words, more than a quarter have been out of work for more than 15 weeks and our historical survey would indicate that we have to go back to the recession of the early 1970's and the recession at the end of the Eisenhower years to find long- term unemployment as severe as it is today. Would that be correct? Mrs. NORWOOD. I haven't made those calculations, but it would not surprise me. We can go over them, but that sounds about right. Senator SARBANES. Let me turn then, having focused on this aspect of the problem, to the number of the unemployed covered by unemployment insurance. 356 What we see is a sharp drop in the percentage covered by unemployment insurance, compared to the past situations. In fact, I think the figure is now down to about 30 percent of the unemployed. Would that be correct? Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, if we look at actual unemployment insurance claimants as a percentage of total unemployment in our survey, it's 37 percent. Senator SARBANES. 37 percent? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. It's gone up slightly. Senator SARBANES. How does that compare with past periods? Mrs. NORWOOD. It's considerably lower coverage than occurred early in the 1980's and very much lower than in the 1970's. The rate of coverage in May 1975 was 67.2 percent. It's now 37.1 percent. Senator SARBANES. And what explains that? Mrs. NORWOOD. I'm not sure. Some of it may be changes that have occurred in the administration of the laws by the States. Many States have reviewed their procedures to ensure proper eligibility. So there may be some effect there, but it's unmeasureable, at least with the data that we have. Second, we did have a recession in 1980 and then another steep recession in 1981-82. There were two back-to-back recessions. Some people say this was just one. In any case, there are many people who lost their jobs and probably used up their eligibility. So I think there were several reasons. I might add also that I have-as I've explained to this committee before-some concerns about the use of the UI data as a statistical data base. It's a very good administrative data base, but there are variations in procedures from one local area to another which make it difficult to look at the statistical validity of the data. Senator SARBANES. That leads right into my next question. Let me put a question to you on that point because I'm concerned about some very sharp variations. Even accepting the point you've just made on the statistical validity, it seems to me the discrepancy is so great that there's a bigger problem. We took a look at the trigger notice dated March 31, which gives each State's current insured unemployment rate, and compared that with the State's total unemployment rate. One of the things we were struck by-we being the staff of the committee that's been doing some work on this-was the wide variation among the percent of each State's unemployed that are covered by unemployment insurance. Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. Senator SARBANES. We've just established the point that looking at it nationally there's been a vary sharp drop in the percent of the unemployed covered by unemployment insurance, from 67 percent in I think it was the mid-1970's to 37 percent today. So we've gone from roughly two-thirds to one-third-not quite. Now if you do it on a State-by-State basis, you have very wide variations. For example, slightly less than half the unemployed in Maryland appear to be covered by unemployment insurance compared to almost 90 percent in Rhode Island and less than 30 percent in Texas. 357 So my question is, What accounts for these State-by-State variations in the percent of total unemployment covered by unemployment insurance? Mrs. NORWOOD. There are at least two explanations and there may be many others. One is that there are different administrative requirements State by State. That's one of the reasons that in the calculation of local area unemployment estimates our Bureau has found it necessary to use data from the Current Population Survey to try to get all States on the same definitional plane. So that's one of the problems. The second problem, of course, is that there's a big difference in the coverage for people who have lost a job and for people who have just entered or reentered the labor force, perhaps having used up eligibility before or perhaps not having had any. The ratio of unemployment compensation claimants to job loses is almost 70 percent. That is still less than the proportion in the 1970's, when it was nearly 100 percent, but there may be, and probably are, some variations from one State to another in the proportions of entrants and reentrants compared to job losers within the State. Senator SARBANES. Well, my time is up. Congressman McMillan. Representative MCMILLAN. Pursuing a little bit the current level of unemployment, it strikes me that this expansion, unlike most in the post-World War II period, I believe it's correct to say is the second longest sustained expansion since World War II or in the post-World War II period, has been characterized by something that the Congress is attempting to address right now that has to do with the import problem. And it strikes me that it has been a very strong performance for the economy to achieve the unemployment levels that we have achieved when we all know that there are heavy pockets of secular unemployment caused by import problems which, as we all know, have grown to record proportions in the past 2 to 3 years. Do you have any data to indicate to what degree the current unemployment level is impacted by the import problem or is it simply too complex to develop that kind of information? Mrs. NORWOOD. I believe it is too complex to develop a direct causal relationship. We import things into this country because they are cheaper or perhaps because consumers find them more desirable. If we were to produce those items, the factors of production would shift completely and we really don't know any way to develop any effective statistical mechanism for measuring them. I think the most that we can do is what has been done in a variety of reports-and the International Trade Commission has done a good deal of work in this area-is to try to look at the obvious places. We've seen a lot in the news about the electronic chip industry. We talk about automobiles and so on. One of the major problems, of course, is the effect of imports on prices and the kinds of reaction to import competition that our domestic producers producing for export take. That can have a very big effect on our export volume. Represenative MCMILLAN. Well, it has been my experience, looking at the State of North Carolina and my own district, I believe 358 the figures this month confirm that the unemployment rate in North Carolina dropped. My own district has among the lowest unemployment rates in the country and yet we've lost close to 10,000 textile-related jobs in that district over the past 6 years. It speaks well for the general health of the economy in this expansion in terms of its capacity to create jobs. It perhaps would be interesting to consider doing some studies of particularly well-docu- mented impacted industries to see what in fact has occurred with respect to the former textile employees or perhaps other industries as steel to see what they have done to recover. Mrs. NORWOOD. Congressman, I believe that such studies, if they were done, really would be extremely difficult and I think quite expensive. What is really needed is-as you say, the textile industry, for example-would be to look at the response in terms of technology, in terms of price, in terms of marketing, that is taken by individual firms to the competition, whether the competition comes from imports or from the domestic market, and then assess the via- bility of the industry. It seems to me that what we are seeing in many cases, particularly in the textile industry, has been a reaction to competition. As we find obsolete plants or plants with old technology facing competition, sometimes those plants close down and sometimes they are refurbished. But even in the textile industry, we are finding new plants coming into existence. Those plants are usually very efficient plants. I just don't think that one can do some sort of aggregate study to look at those issues and it would be an extremely difficult job to do comprehensive studies by industry. It would require personal visits. We are trying to look at some of the technological change in some industries. We have added a few questions as a pilot to our industry wage surveys to see whether we can identify any changes. But it has been many years since the Bureau of Labor Statistics had a problem to actually send data collectors out to plants to do real surveys of new technology and I think that's what would be required. Representative MCMILLAN. Well, I will admit it's difficult because often aggregate figures tend to mask the problem and therefore don't provide any clear indications as to potential solutions. Just using the phrase textile industry as if it were one industry and that a given participant in the industry can modify their product mix or their equipment with any ease, some elements of the industry may be doing extremely well while others are severely impacted. Mrs. NORWOOD. That's right. Representative MCMILLAN. And I think it's really that issue of masking performance that troubles me a little bit about simply viewing unemploymnent rates in the aggregate for the Nation, ig- noring the fact that in the longest expansion in the post-World War II period, despite heavy impact that we would generally acknowledge has occurred because of imports, we have had perhaps one of the longest sustained periods of new job creation that we've experienced. On that note, could you characterize-because claims have been made that we've created 12 million new jobs in the 53 months of 359 this expansion-how that rate of job creation might compare with other expansions in the post-World War II period? Mrs. NORWOOD. It has been extremely vigorVus. In the 1970's we created about 13 million jobs during the same period of recovery- that is 52 months after the trough of the recession. We have created a little over 12 million jobs in this recovery. So both of them have been extremely strong. The period of the 1970's was a little bit stronger than now. Representative MCMILLAN. Would the same be true basically in terms of the employment-population ratios? Mrs. NORWOOD. The unemployment-population ratio is extraordinarily high now. It reached an all-time high last month at 60.2 percent. It has gone down a tenth of a point, but it is extraordinarily high. Last month was an all-time high and this one is an all-time high except for last month. So it is very high. Representative MCMILLAN. And compared with the 1970's, how would that compare roughly? Mrs. NORWOOD. It's much higher. It's approximately the same rate of increase during the two recoveries-that is, the one in the 1970's and now-but we started in the 1980's from a higher level of employment. Employment-population ratios started at a higher level. So clearly there are more people working as a proportion of the population than in the past. That's quite true. Representative MCMILLAN. I think my time is up, Mr. Chairman. Thank you. Senator SARBANES. Senator Proxmire. Senator PROXMIRE. Commissioner, your statement emphasized that the 6.6 percent unemployment rate of March was little changed from February. Would you say that the one-tenth percent improvement was mainly due to rounding the rate to 1 decimal point? Mrs. NORWOOD. There is some rounding in it, but the unemployment rate has to change by almost two-tenths of a percentage point in order for the change to be statistically significant over a single month. Of course, over a period of time, a succession of tenths can accumulate and become significant. But that's why I said that the unemployment rate was about the same. Senator PROXMIRE. Well, I notice in your household data tabulation you show an actual decline in the total employed between Feb- ruary and March, seasonally adjusted. It dropped from 113,122,000 to 113,104,000. It's a small drop, but it's a drop. Isn't that right? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes, but it's not a statistically significant drop. Senator PROXMIRE. Well, the reason apparently that unemployment improved was because the labor force dropped and the number of people working dropped. Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. Senator PROXMIRE. Now the March household survey shows an increase in the number of discouraged workers in the first quarter. How do you interpret that? Isn't it unusual for the number of discouraged workers to increase during a period of economic growth? Mrs. NORWOOD. The number of discourage workers is about the same as in the previous quarter I believe. It's 1,168,000 and in the 360 previous quarter it was 1,127,000. So there is really no significant difference. Senator PROXMIRE. Now the diffusion index-that's one we've had fun with in the past and it's a pretty good index because I understand that that indicates the proportion of industries that actually increased employment compared to those who have lost employment. What happened in 1 month's time to cause that drop? It dropped from 63 percent in February to 49.7 percent in March. In view of the fact that there wasn't much of a change, by and large, in the statistics, that diffusion index is pretty spectacular. Would you interpret that decline as a sign that the economy is weakening? Mrs. NORWOOD. The diffusion index is heavily weighted toward manufacturing. Manufacturing employment from February to March was quite weak and the diffusion index is showing that. Nevertheless, almost 50 percent is still not cause for panic. Senator PROXMIRE. Well, we usually say that the industrial sector is in trouble when the diffusion index falls below 50 percent. It's not much below 50 percent, as you say, but it is below it. Does that mean that the industrial sector, the manufacturing sector, faces a weak spring? After all, it was a big drop. Mrs. NORWOOD. It's quite clear that employment in durable goods manufacturing in particular is weak. On the other hand, a lot will depend on whatever the response is in the volume of export sales. That will depend in large part on price relationships and also on how that might translate or not translate into employment. The employment growth that we are seeing and that we have been seeing for many years now is largely focused in the service- producing sector, as we have discussed many times. Senator PROXMIRE. Now the payroll employment figures for each of the first 2 months of the year were revised down by more than 100,000. This month you show no growth in employment when measured by the household survey, but the payroll survey shows a growth of 165,000. Do you believe that this month's payroll employment growth might be another overestimate and you will shortly have to revise the figures downward? Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, you will recall, Senator, that when I was here in the previous couple of months I emphasized some concern about the retail trade figure. I said that I thought that might be an exaggeration. It actually was something of an exaggeration when we got full reports in. That's where the problem was. Retail trade is up only slightly now, 36,000 this month. So I don't see any really serious problem there. Another area that we have some concern about is in government, which seems to be very difficult to measure, but the total private has still gone up. So I don't think that's a problem. Senator PROXMIRE. As you know, Members of Congress are especially sensitive to the regional changes. Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. Senator PROXMIRE. And we have some regions of the country that are dominated by energy production or by agricultural produc- 361 tion which have suffered a great deal. We notice that especially in the banking industry and in other areas. Can you give us a quick r6sume-it's hard for me to interpret your figures because I don't understand the acronyms. They seem to be contradictory. At any rate, give me a brief r6sume by what the six or eight or nine regions that you have, whether unemployment is up or down? Mr. PLEWES. This will take a minute because we don't have the columns lined up exactly, but taking a look just over the past year, for example, from March 1986 to March 1987, and take a look at the unemployment experienced in each of the regions, in the Northeast region the unemployment rate has gone down by 1.2 percentage points. Senator PROXMIRE. That's probably the most prosperous part of the country. Mr. PLEWES. Yes, sir. It surely is. In the Middle Atlantic area, the unemployment rate went down by 16 percentage points. The East-North Central area unemployment rate was down about six- tenths. Senator PROXMIRE. That includes Wisconsin? Mr. PLEWES. That includes Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Iowa, and Indiana. Senator PROXMIRE. Six-tenths down? Mr. PLEWES. Six-tenths down. Not as much as the Northeast but the direction is down. Going through some other areas, in the farm areas, West-North Central area, eight-tenths down, starting from reasonably low levels actually, but eight-tenths down. In the South Atlantic region, two-tenths down. That's the North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia areas down to Georgia and Florida. In the Ken- tucky, Tennessee area, the East-South Central, down 1.5 percent. In the West-South Central-that's the area hit by the oil and gas problems-Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Texas-up two- tenths of a percent. Most of their increase was prior to this year, but it's still up two-tenths. Senator PROXMIRE. So that area, Oklahoma and so forth, they're worse off now than they were? Mr. PLEWES. That's correct. The Mountain Area in the West, that's also impacted-Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, down in Nevada and in that area, up nine- tenths, again fairly largely through mining-losses in both metal mining and oil and gas extraction. Senator PROXMIRE. When you say "up," you mean unemployment? Mr. PLEWES. Unemployment is up nine-tenths of a percentage point on average in that region. The Pacific region is down-California, Hawaii, Washington, Oregon, and Alaska-down eight-tenths percent. Senator PROXMIRE. So it sounds as if the healthier are getting healthier and the sicker are getting sicker. Mr. PLEwES. That's correct. And I think if we could characterize it right now, we have problems in oil and gas and mining that affect certain areas. We have problems in farming, in agriculture, that are affecting that area. And we have continued problems, of 362 course, in some of the manufacturing industries that affect certain areas. Senator PROXMIRE. I think maybe I have time for one more question. This month you reported that we lost 68,000 jobs in the goods- producing sector. I find that rather startling because it was reported that the operating rate of the Nation's factories had begun to rise to 79.8 percent in February. New orders for manufactured goods rose 4.3 percent in February. Inventories lowered in the last quarter of 1986 should probably need rebuilding. Can you explain why goods-producing employment should drop so dramatically? Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, as you well know, Senator, the fact that employment goes down does not always have a relationship to output. Output in manufacturing has held up much more firmly than has employment in manufacturing. Senator PROXMIRE. Well, that's hard to understand. I would think that as production goes up jobs go up, as production goes down jobs go down. Why not? Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, there are two things going on. One is new technology, of course, and the other is the distinct effort by employers to become more competitive. Labor costs are quite high and they are paying a great deal of attention to trying to reduce labor costs and to get as much production as they can by using capital equipment and workers more effectively and more efficiently. So we are finding in the newspaper almost every week some indication by large corporations of reductions in their work force without necessarily affecting the output of those factories. Senator SARBANES. We have a rollcall. I think we are in a position to adjourn the hearing, but Congressman McMillan wanted some answers to some questions as I understand it. Representative MCMILLAN. I have some questions with respect to drawing a historical and a profile of people at the minimum wage level classifications by age, part time, head of household, joint head of household, which I would like to pursue with in writing, Mrs. Norwood, if that would be permissible, Mr. Chairman. Senator SARBANES. Certainly. Representative MCMILLAN. Thank you very much. Senator SARBANES. Commissioner, I thank you and your associ- ates very much. We appreciate you appearing before us. The committee stands adjourned. [Whereupon, at 10:10 a.m., the committee adjourned, subject to the call of the Chair.] EMPLOYMENT-UNEMPLOYMENT

FRIDAY, MAY 8, 1987

CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES, JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE, Washington, DC. The committee met, pursuant to notice, at 9:35 a.m., in room SD- 628, Dirksen Senate Office Building, Hon. Paul S. Sarbanes (chairman of the committee) presiding. Present: Senator Sarbanes and Representative Wylie. Also present: William R. Buechner and Christopher J. Frenz, professional staff members.

OPENING STATEMENT OF SENATOR SARBANES, CHAIRMAN Senator SARBANES. The Joint Economic Committee will come order. to We are pleased again to welcome Commissioner Janet Norwood for her testimony this morning on the employment and unemployment figures for April 1987. This is one in a continuing series of such hearings that this committee has held and we are very pleased to have Commissioner Norwood back before us. I am going to depart from the usual statement that the chairman makes on the unemployment figures when we hold these monthly hearings and take a moment to say that since Commissioner Nor- wood's last appearance before us we have received the very welcome news that President Reagan has nominated her to be the Commissioner for a third term as the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Commissioner Norwood has had a very distinguished career; she has been a Bureau of Labor Statistics employee for almost a quarter of a century. Before her nomination to her first full term as Commissioner of Labor Statistics, she had served as Deputy Com- missioner for 5 years, from October 1973 to April 1978, and as Acting Commissioner from April 1978, following the death of Com- missioner Julius Shiskin, to May 1979. She then got her first 4-year term. She was reappointed to a second 4-year term in 1983, and she's now been nominated-and I have every confidence will be confirmed-to a third 2 4-year term. Throughout her nearly 5-year career at the BLS, she's unfail- ingly adhered to the highest professional standards of competence and integrity, and her pending reappointment is a most welcome development. (363) 364 I have talked to the leadership of the Labor and Human Re- sources Committee. I gather they hope to act on this nomination in the next few weeks. So, Commissioner, I simply say congratulations and we are very pleased about this nomination for your further reappointment, and we are very pleased to welcome you once again before the committee. Mrs. NORWOOD. Thank you very much. Senator SARBANES. Congressman Wylie. OPENING STATEMENT OF REPRESENTATIVE WYLIE Representative WYLIE. Mr. Chairman, it gives me a great deal of pleasure to welcome Commissioner Norwood here this morning and I, too, would like to congratulate her on her nomination and certainly voice my strong support. She has become a real expert in her field and is looked to for advice and guidance in the area of employment and unemployment. I see this morning that the Commissioner brings us very good news indeed, that there is a sharp three-tenths of a percentage point decline in the civilian unemployment rate and that its level is down to 6.3 percent. I think that's probably the lowest rate since way back in 1980, if I read my figures correctly. But it seems as if this increased employment is across the board and I would just make the observation that over the course of the upswing almost 13 million jobs have been created, if I read your report correctly, and this is the longest economic recovery I think for a long time. But we are clearly it seems moving in the right direction, but I want to hear from you and I look forward to your testimony. Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman. Senator SARBANES. Commissioner, we would be pleased to hear from you. STATEMENT OF HON. JANET L. NORWOOD, COMMISSIONER, BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR, AC- COMPANIED BY THOMAS J. PLEWES, ASSOCIATE COMMISSION- ER, OFFICE OF EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT STATIS- TICS; AND KENNETH V. DALTON, ASSOCIATE COMMISSIONER, OFFICE OF PRICES AND LIVING CONDITIONS Mrs. NORWOOD. Thank you. Mr. Dalton is on my right and Mr. Plewes is on my left. We are always very, very pleased to be here to supplement the press release. Unemployment fell sharply in April, and employment growth was quite strong. Both the overall and the civilian jobless rates declined three-tenths of a percentage point-to 6.2 and 6.3 percent, respectively. In addition, both the household and the business surveys recorded healthy job growth. Jobless rates declined for most worker groups. The rates for adult men and women dropped three-tenths of a point to 5.5 percent. Unemployment rates for men and women have been quite similar for some time now and identical for the last 2 months. This shift away from the historical pattern of a higher rate for women than for men, especially in a recovery period, is an interesting one. 365 During the late 1970's, for example, the rate for women generally exceeded the rate 9 for men by 1½/2 to 2 percentage points. In the 1 80's, however, the male unemployment rate rose steeply during the recession. Partly because of the industrial restructuring that has occurred, it has remained well above its historical level, whereas the unemployment rate for adult women is now back to 1979 levels. The adult male unemployment rate is still very much affected by the relative weakness of mining and of several key manufacturing industries. Women, on the other hand, have traditionally been more concentrated in some of the fast-growing service industries. The service-producing sector is now the primary source of increased jobs for both men and women. In addition, the trend has been for women to shift more and more into full-time, career-ori- ented employment. Their educational attainment has risen, and they have sharply reduced their movement out of the labor force as they have children. Jobless rates for whites declined to 5.4 percent, and the rate for blacks dropped to 13.0 percent. Over the past year, the rate for blacks has fallen by nearly 2 percentage points. The proportion of the black population at work, while still well below the 62.1 percent for the white population, has risen from 54.3 to 54.7 percent. The unemployment rate for the Hispanic population-at 9.2 percent in April-was down from the 10.5 percent rate of a year ago, and their employment population ratio picked up by about 2 percentage points over the year. Despite the decline in overall unemployment, there was no significant reduction in the number of jobless for 6 months or longer, or in the number of persons working part time for economic reasons. After 53 months of expansion in the labor market, there still are more than a million persons with very long-duration unemployment and another 5.4 million working part time when they want full-time jobs. As I indicated earlier, both the household and the business surveys showed strong employment growth in April. In fact, since last September, both surveys have registered gains of about 1.8 million. The fastest growth over the year continued to take place in the relatively well-paid precision production, craft and repair occupations and in the managerial and professional specific occupations. Growth in the business survey followed its now familiar pattern. Most of the 315,000 growth was in the service-producing sector. Services, the largest industry group, with almost one-fourth of all payroll jobs, accounted for 100,000 of the over-the-month gain. Fi- nance, insurance and real estate continued strong, adding about 35,000 jobs, and retail trade rose by 65,000. In the goods-producing sector, construction, which had experienced unusual seasonal patterns during the winter months, rose slightly on a seasonally adjusted basis. In mining, the long downward slide in employment seems to have bottomed out. Although there has been little increase in mining employment in recent months, we are no longer seeing the large and consistent job losses that occurred in the last 2 years. Employment in manufacturing continued the lackluster performance of recent months, with little change occurring in April. The 15,000 job drop in the motor vehicles and equipment industry was 366 due to a temporary layoff. The workers affected by that layoff are now back at work. Although factory employment held steady in April, the average factory workweek declined by half an hour, and overtime declined by three-tenths of a hour. As a result, aggregate hours in manufacturing declined by 1.0 percent. Our experience shows, however, that these declines was probably associated with religious observ- ance, both of which fell within the reference week. In summary, the labor market in April was quite strong. Sizable job growth resumed, especially in the service-producing sector, and unemployment declined. I would like to take a moment, Mr. Chairman, to comment briefly on the first quarter 1987 price data which suggest that the effects of the declining dollar are influencing the prices of consumer products. Prices paid by importers for commodities other than fuels, which has been rising since 1985, rose appreciably again during the first quarter of this year. In the CPI, a sharp turnaround in energy prices was the major cause of the 6.2 percent rise in the overall index during the first quarter of this year; the CPI had risen only 1.1 percent in all of 1986. Nevertheless, consumer prices for commodities other than food and energy also accelerated. Many product areas that are heavily influenced by imports had substantial annual rates of increase in the first quarter, and I list a few examples-wine, apparel, and jewelry. While one should not make too much of a single quarter's data, evidence that the dollar's decline is putting some upward pressure on domestic prices is beginning to accumulate. There is even some limited evidence that domestic producer prices may be responding to the advent of higher import prices. After rising 2.9 percent during 1986, the index for prices received by domestic producers of consumer goods other than food and energy rose at a somewhat more rapid annual rate of 3.7 percent during the first quarter. The evidence for price accelerations among domestic producers is very limited, but the large increases for such things as apparel and home electronics suggest that prices of domestically produced and import-sensitive commodities bear watching in the coming months. Mr. Chairman, we would be glad to try to answer any questions. [The table attached to Mrs. Norwood's statement, together with the press release referred to, follows:] Unemployment ratea of all civilian workers by alternative seasonal adjustment methods

X-II ARIHA method X-ll method Month Unad- Concurrent (official Range and justed Official (as first Concurrent Stable Total Residual method (colB. y_ear rate ,procedure computed) (revised) before 1980) 2-8) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

1986

April ••••••• 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 .1 May ••••••••• 7.0 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 - June •••••••• 7.3 7.1 7.1 7.1 . 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 - July •••••••• 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 6.9 7.0 7.0 .1 August •••••• 6.7 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.9 7.0 6.8 .2 September ••• 6.8 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 - October ••••• 6.6 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.9 7.0 .1 November •••• 6.6 -6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.0 .1 December •••• 6.3 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.7 .1

1987

January ••••• 7.3 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.7 .2 February •••• 7.2 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.5 6.7 .2 March ••••••• 6.9 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.6 .1 April ••••••• 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.3 .1

SOURCE: U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Bureau of Labor Statistics May 1987 368

adjusted. (1) Unadjusted race. Une.ployrment rate for all cJiIian workers, not seasonaily for (2) Off1cial procedure (X-li ARIDIAnethod). The published seasonally adjusted rate a1l civilian work rs. Each of the 3 oajor civilIao labor force va-ponents--agricultural and employment, nonagricultural epPoynent and unemployment-for 4 age-sex groupso-ales ages 16-19 and 20 years and over-are seasonally adjusted Independently using data femalei, by from Jaouary 1975 forward. The data series for each of these 12 components are extended a year at each end of the original series using ARIKA (Auto-Regressive. Integrated. Hoving Average) models chosen specifically for each series. Each extended series is then seasonally and adjusted with the X-1l portion of the X-li ARIMAprogram. The 4 teenage unemployment nonagricultural employment components are adjusted with the additive adjuatment model, while the other components are adjusted with the multiplicative model. The unemployment Is computed by sumaing the 4 seasonally adjusted unemployment components and calculating rate seasonally that total as a percent of the civilian labor force total derived by summing all 12 year. adjusted components. All the seasonally adjusted series are revised at the end of each Extrapolated factors for January-June are computed at the beginning of each year; extrapolated become factors for July-December are computed in the middle of the year after the June data July available. Each set of 6-month factors are published in advance, In the January and issues,respectively, of Employment and Earnings.

Concurrent (as first computed. -ll ARIMAmethod). The official procedure for (3) Is computation of the rate for all ciia-n workers using the 12 components followed that extrapolated factors are not used at all. Each component Is seasonally adjusted except Rates for with the X-ll ARIMAprogram each month as the most recent data become available. once each each month of the current year are shown as first computed; they are revised only year. at the end of the year when data for the full year become available. For example, from the rate for January 1985 would be based, during 1985, on the adjustment of data the period January 1975 through January 1985.

(revised, K-l ARIMAmethod). The procedure used is identical to (3) (4) Concurrent the above and the rare for the current month (the last month displayed) will always be same In the two columns. However, all previous months are subject to revision each month month. based on the seasonal adjustment of all the components with data through the current Is extended (5) Stable (X-Il ARMAmethod). Each of the 12 civilian labor force components using ARIMA as in the official procedure and then run through the X-il part of the program using the srable option. This option assumes that seasonal patterns are basically constant from year-to-year and computes final seasonal factors as unweighted averages of all the seosonal-irregular components for each month across the entire span of the period adjusted. As In the official procedure, factors are extrapolated In 6-onth intervals and the series ace revised at the end of each year. The procedure for computation of the rate from the seasonally adjusted components is also Identical to the officialprocedure.

(6) Total (K-liARIMA method). This is one alternative aggregation procedure. in which total unemployment and civilian labor force levels are extended with ARIMAmodels and directly adjusted with multiplicative adjustment models In the X-il part of the a program. The rate Is computed by taking seasonally adjusted total unemployment as percent of seasonally adjusted total civillan labor force Factors are extrapolated in 6-monCh intervals and the series revised at the end of each year.

Residual (X-ll ARIMAmethod). This Is another alternative aggregation method, in (7) ARIMA which total civilianemployment and cIvilian labor force levels are extended using and then directly adjusted with multiplicative adjustment models. The seasonally models employment adjusted unemployment level Is derived by subtracting seasonally adjusted from seasonally adjusted labor force. The rate Is then computed by taking the derived In unemployment level as a percent of the labor force level. Factors are extrapolated 6-month Intervals and the series revised at the end of each year.

(8) X-Il method (official method before 1980). The method for computation of the official factors procedure is used except that the series are not extended with ARIMAmodels and the the are projected in 12-month intervals. The standard X-li program is used to perform seasonal adjustment. the Methods of Adjustment: The X-1l ARIMAmethod was developed at Statistics Canada by The Seasonal Adjootment and Times Series Staff under the direction of Estela Bee Dlgua. e.e method is described in The X-il ARIMASeasonal Adjustment Method, by itela Orgun, Statistics Canado CAralogue No. 12-564E, February 1980.

The standard C-li method is described in X-il VaOtastof the Census Method 11 Seasonal Adjustment Prograom,by Julius Shskin, Allan Young and John Musgrave (Technical Paper No. 15, Burean of the Census, 1967). 369

|S United States Department of Labor 4 Bureau of Labor Statistics Washington, D.C. 20212

Technical information: (202) 523-1371 USDL 87-185 523-1944 523-1959 TRANSMISSION OF MATERIAL IN THIS Media contact: 523-1913 RELEASE IS EMBARGOEDUNTIL 8:30 A.M. (EDT), FRIDAY, MAY 8, 1987

THE EMPLOYMENTSITUATION: APRIL 1987

Unemployment declined in April and employment rose substantially, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The overall unemployment rate and the rate for civilian workers each were down three-tenths of a percentage point to 6.2 percent and 6.3 percent, respectively.

Total civilian employment--as measured by the monthly survey of households--rose by 470,000 in April, and nonagricultural payroll employment--as measured by the monthly survey of establishments--was up by 315,000. The two employment series have advanced by 2.8 and 2.5 million, respectively, over the past year.

Unemployment (NouseholdSurvey fata)

The number of unemployed persons declined by 350,000 in April to a seasonally adjusted level of 7.5 million. The civilian worker unemployment rate fell by 0.3 percentage point to 6.3 percent, matching the rates last reached in January-March of 1980.

Unemployment rates for virtually all labor force groups declined to their lowest levels for the current expansionary period. The rates for adult men and adult women each decreased by three-tenths of a point to 5.5 percent, while the rate for teenagers edged down to 17.4 percent. Jobless rates for both whites (5.4 percent) and blacks (13.0 percent) improved over the month, while the rate for Hispanics (9.2 percent) was about unchanged. (See tables A-2 and A-3.)

Most of the over-the-month decline in unemployment occurred among those jobless for less than 15 weeks. The average (mean) duration of unemployment was unchanged at 14.9 weeks, while median duration edged up to 7 weeks. (See table A-7.)

Civilian Employment and the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)

Civilian employment rose more than usual in April and, after adjustment for seasonality, advanced by 470,000 to 111.8 million. Adult women accounted for more than half of this increase. The proportion of the 370

civilian population that was employed rose 0.2 percentage point to 61.3 percent. (See table A-2.)

The civilian labor force participation rate, at 65.4 percent, was unchanged in April. Over the past 12 months, the civilian labor force has

Table A. Major indicators of labor market activity, seasonally adjusted

Quarterly Monthly data averages Category Mar.- 1986 1987 1987 Apr.

HOUSEHOLD DATA IV I Feb. I Mar. I Apr. change _ Thousands f --r-ns Labor force 1/ ...... 120,308 120,943 121,089 120,958 121,070 112 Total employment 1/. . 112,170 112,995 113,122 113,104 113,570 466 Civilian labor force... 118,558 119,202 119,349 119,222 119,335 113 Civilian employment.. 110,420 111,254 111,382 111,368 111,835 467 Unemployment ...... 8,138 7,948 7,967 7,854 7,500 -354 Not in labor force..... 62,807 62,800 62,649 62,957 63,009 52 Discouraged workers.. 1,127 1,168 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.

Percent of labor force Unemployment rates: 6.2 -0.3 All workers 1/...... 6.8 6.6 6.6 6.5 All civilian workers. 6.9 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.3 -.3 -.3 Adult men...... 6.1 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.5 Adult women...... 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.5 -.3 Teenagers...... 17.8 17.9 18.0 18.1 17.4 -.7 White...... 6.0 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.4 -.2 Black...... 14.1 14.2 14.3 13.9 13.0 -.9 Hispanic origin.... 10.2 9.7 9.6 9.0 9.2 .2

ESTABLISHMENT DATA Thousands of jobs 1010/ p101,0)0 1010)4IAc pclULUS pnlawh,3Lwo palu Nonfarm employment..... 11,7pl,310101/z 2 5 0 1 7 , 84P102 5U0 0ADZ")4 OUZ2 5 0 4 6 p'10 Goods-producing ...... 24,892 p , 25,038 p , p , p42 7 6 8 1 3 7 7 2 7 9 7 4 Service-producing.... 76,180 p 76,816 177'005 p , p2

Hours of work

Average weekly hours: 3 4 8 3 4 7 0 1 34.7 p34.9 35.0 p . p . p- . Total private...... 4 1 1 4 1 0 4 0 5 5 40.8 p . 41.3 p . p . p-. Manufacturing...... 3 6 3 7 3 Overtime ...... 3.5 p . 3.6 p . p3.4 p-. . _ ava__ II labe 1/ Includes the resident_ . Armed Forces. ~~~~~~.A.-oN.A.-not available. p-preliminary. 371

grown by 2.0 million to 119.3 million persons. Adult women have accounted for three-fifths of this increase.

Industry Payroll Employment (Establishment Survey) Total nonagricultural payroll employment rose by 315,000 in April. usual, the increase was mostly As among service-producing industries, there was a gain of 275,000 jobs. where Since April 1986, the industries sector have added over in this 2.5 million workers to its payrolls, practically all of the over-the-year accounting for job growth. (See table B-I.) Jobs in the services industry increased by almost half 105,000 in April, with of the gain occurring in business million jobs and health services. Over I have been added in this industry trade also during the past year. Retail posted strong gains, increasing grew by about 65,000. Employment by 35,000 in the finance, insurance, and real estate industry, finance alone rising by 20,000. with

In the goods-producing sector, the construction industry of about 25,000 jobs posted a gain (seasonally adjusted). Manufacturing little changed, as a decline employment was in motor vehicles and equipment but widespread gains elsewhere. offset small Jobs in mining and extraction component have its oil and gas edged up over the last 3 months, the large and steady in contrast to losses of the prior 2 years. Weekly Hours (Establishment Survey Data) The average workweek of production or private nonsupervisory workers on nonagricultural payrolls edged seasonal down 0.1 hour to 34.7, after adjustment. Weekly hours in manufacturing declined by 0.5 40.5 hours, and factory overtime hour to' declined by 0.3 hour movements resulted from to 3.4; both religious observances in the (See table B-2.) reference period.

Despite employment gains, declining hours aggregate weekly caused the index of hours of production or nonagricultural nonsupervisory workers on private payrolls to edge down 0.1 percent April. This to 120.5 (1977-100) in level was still 2.4 percent higher table B-5.) than a year earlier. (See

Hourly and WeeklyEarnings (Establishment Survey Data) Average hourly earnings were down 0.2 percent weekly earnings in April, and average declined by 0.5 percent, after Before seasonal adjustment for seasonality. adjustment, hourly earnings were average weekly unchanged at $8.89, while earnings were down 88 cents to $306.71. (See table B-3.) The Hourly Earnings Index (Establishment Survey Data) The Hourly Earnings Index (HEI) was 172.2 seasonally adjusted, (1977-100) in April, an increase of 0.3 percent from March. For the 12 372

months ended in April, the increase was 2.2 percent. The HEI excludes the effects of two types of changes unrelated to underlying wage rate movements-fluctuations in manufacturing overtime and interindustry employment shifts. In dollars of constant purchasing power, the HEI decreased 0.9 percent during the 12-month period ended in March. (See table B-4 .)

Revisions in the Establishment Survey Data

The Employment Situation news release of data for May will Introduce revisions in the establishment-based series on nonagricultural payroll employment, hours, and earnings to reflect the regular annual benchmark adjustments and updated seasonal adjustment factors.

The Employment Situation for May 1987 will be released on Friday, June 5, at 8:30 A.M. (EDT). 373

Explanatory Note

This news release presents statistics from two major surveys, that time; and they made specific efforts to find employment the Current Population Survey (household survey) and the sometime during the prior 4 weeks. Persons laid off from their Current Employment Statistics Survey (establishment survey). former jobs and awaiting recall andthose expecting to report The household survey provides the information on the labor to a job within 30 days need not be looking for work to be force, total employment, and unemployment thatappears in counted as unemployed. the A tables, marked HOUSEHOLD DATA. It is a sample The laborforee equals the sum of the number employedand surey of about 59,500 households that is conducted by the the number unemployed. The unemployment rule is the Bureau of the Census with most of the findings analyzedand percentageof unemployed people in the labor force (civilian published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics at~ss. plus the resident Armed Forces). Table A-5 presents a special The establishment survey provides the information on the grouping of sene measures of unemployment based on vary- employment, hours, and earnings of workers on ing defimitions of unemployment and the labor force. The nonagricultural payrolls that appears in the B tables,marked definitions are provided in the table. The most restrictive ESTABLISHMENT DATA. This information is collected defmition yields U-I snd the most comprehensive yields U-7. from payroll records by Bnsin cooperation with State agencies. The overall unemployment rate is U-5a, while U-5b represents The sample includes 250,000 establishments employing over 38 the same measure with a civilian labor force base. million people. Unlike the household survey,the establishment survey only For both surveys, the data for a given month are actually counts wage and salary employeeswhose namesappear on the collected for and relate to a particular week. In the household payroD records of nonagriculturad firms. As a result, there are survey. unless otherwise indicated, it isthe calendar week that many differences between the two surveys, among which are contains the 12thday of the month, which is called the survey the following: week. In the establishment survey, the reference week is the pay period including the 12th,which may or may not cores. - Threhoued mny. _.A t.d ma*undo sre. f - ta sWom, pond directly to the calendar week. of sherau. : Or m _btdmserr snde ftaeksm. Acreti-rYoyd. md Wm b, vne sh.d emrs, and The data in this release areaffected by a number of technical .mebo-of re dW AmodIans; factors, including definitions. survey differences, seasonal ad- - Thehosld mery wnd. peapl aped trer avonasshe justments, and the Inevitablevariance in results between a ealooeyd:Or nhubtlms mr don a; survey of a sample anda census of the entire population. Each of these factors is explained below. *- Theh bWdmery h trebedre Osue 16sn of ae ad aldo:;h. easiurems emy b m tbed by p; Coverage, deIfnitllo , anddiferences - Tthhtead meorrbre - dpaue oa rediduab.bame tIh between surveys dsvdu.]a Ounuedeony n: nod.e sbtfidomt snl. oaploywerko.irm The sample households in the household survey are selected m Aoe Ihb asoaeele ao*gvan aut An oar psv wor.dbe naseledpeya fSmesb ppe. so as to reflect the entirecivilian noninstitutional population 16 years of age and older. Each peon in a household is Other differences between the two sunreys are described in classifiedas employed,unemployed, or not in the labor force. "Comparing Employment Estimates from Household and Thosewho hold more thin one job are classifiedaccording to Payroll Sueyns," which may be obtained from the BaSupon the job at which they worked the most hours. request. People are classified as employed if they did any work at all as paid civilians; worked in their own business or profession or Seanonal adjustment on their own farm; or worked 15 bour or more in an enter- Over the course of a year, the size of the Nation's Labor prise operated by a member of their family. whether they were force and the levees of employment tnd unemployment paid or not. People are also counted asemployed if they were undergo sharp fluctuations due to such seasonal events as on unpaid leave because of illness. bad weather, disputaesbe- changes in weather, reduced or expanded production, har- tween labor and management. or personal reasons. Members vests,major holidays, and the opening and closing of schools. of the Armed Forces stationed in the United States are also in- For example, the Laborforce increases by a largenumber each cluded employed in the total. June, when schools close andmany young people enter the job People are classified as unemployed, regardless of their market. The effect of such seasonal variation can be vesy eligibility for unemployment benefits or pubhc assistance, if large; over the course of a year, for example, seasonality may they meet all of the following criteria: They had no employ- account for as much as 95 percent of the month-to-month mentluring the survey week; they were available for work at changes in unemployment. 374

Becausethese seasonal events follow a more or less regular from the results of a complete census. The chances are approx- pattern each yea, their influence on statistical trends can be imately 90 out of 100 that an estimate based on the sample will eliminated by adjusting the statistics from month to month. differ by no more than 1.6 times the standard error from the These adjustments make nonseasonal developments, such as results of a complete census. At approximately the 90-percent declines in economic activity or increases in the participation level of confidence-the confidence limits used by BLSin is of women in the labor force, easier to spot. To return to the analyses-the error for the monthly change in total employ- school's-out example, the large number of people entering the ment is on the order of plus or minus 328,000; for total labor force each June is likely to obscure any other changes unemployment it is 220,000; and, for the overall unemploy- that have taken place since May, making it difficult to deter- ment rate, it is 0.19 percentage point. These figures do not mine if the levelof economic activity has risen or declined. mean that the sample results are off by these suagnitudes but, However, because the effect of students finishing school in rather, that the chances we approximately 90 out of 100 that previous years is known, the statistics for the current year can the "true" levelor catewould not be expected to differ from be adjusted to allow for a comparable change. Insofar as the the estimates by more than these amounts. seasonal adjustment is made correctly, the adjusted figure pro- Sampling errors for monthly surveys me reduced when the vides a more useful tool with which to analyze changes in data are cumulated for several months. such as quarterly or economic activity. annually. Also, as a general rule, the smaller the estimate, the Measures of labor force, employment, andunemployment larger the sampling error. Therefore, relatively speaking, the contain components such as age and se.. Statistics for all estimate of the size of the labor force is subject to less error employees, production workers, average weekly hours, and than is the estimate of the number unemployed. And, among average hourly earnings include components based on the the unemployed, the sampling error for the jobless rate of employer's industry. All these statistics cmnbe seasonally ad- adult men, for example, is much smaller than is the error for justed either by adjusting the total or by adjusting each of the the jobless rate of teenagers. Specifically, the error on monthly components and combining them. The second procedure change in the jobless rate for men is .26 percentage point; for usually yields more accurate information and is therefore teenagers, it is 1.25percentage points. followed by sLs.For example, the seasonally adjusted figure In the establishment survey, estimates for the 2 most current for the labor force is the sum of eight seasonally adjusted months are based on incomplete returns: for this reason, these civilian employmentcomponents, plus the resident Armed estimates are labeled preliminary in the tables. When all the Forces total (not adjusted for seasonality), and four seasonally returns in the sample have been received, the estinates are adjusted unemployment components; the total for unemploy- revised. In other words, data for the month of September are ment is the sum of the four unemployment components; and published in prelminary form in October and November and the overall unemployment rate is derived by dividing the in final form in December. To remove errors that build up resulting estimate of total unemployment by the estimate of over time, a comprehensive count of the employedis con- the labor force. ducted each year. The results of this survey ae used to The numeescal factors used to make the seasonal ad- establish new benchmarks-comprehensive counts of justmeants are recalculated regularly. For the household employment-against which month-to-month changes can be survey, the factors are calculated for the January-June period measured. The new benchmarks also incorporate changes in andagain for the July-December period. At the time the first the classification of industries and allow for the formation of half yea's factors ae calculated (upon availability of data for new establishments. December), historical data for the previous 5-yearperiod are subject to revision. For the establishment survey, updated factors for seasonal adjustment ae calculated only once a yea, Additional stataitics and other Informatlon along with the introduction of new benchmarks which are In order to provide a broad view of the Nation's employ- discussed at the end of the next section. ment situation, ass regularly publishes a wide variety of data in this news release. More comprehensive statistics are contain- Sampling varlabillty ed in Employment and Earnings,published each month by Statistics based on the household and establishment surveys aLS.It is available for S4.50 per issue or $31.00 per year from are subject to sampling error, that is, the estimate of the the U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., number of people employed and the other estimates drawn 20204. A check or money order made out to the Superinten- from these surveys probably differ from the figures that would dent of Documents must accompany all orders. be obtained from a complete census, even if the same question- Employment and Earnings also provides approximations of naires and procedures were used. In the household survey, the the standard errors for the household survey data published in amount of the differences can be expressed in terms of stand- this release. For unemployment and other labor force ard errors. The numerical value of a standard error depends categories, the standard errors appear in tables B through J of upon the size of the sample, the results of the survey, and other its "Explanatory Notes." Measures of the reliability of the factors. However, the numerical value is always such that the data drawn from the establishment survey and the actual chances are approximately 68 out of 100that an estimate based amounts of revision due to benchmark adjustments are pro- on the sample will differ by no more than the standard error vided in tables M, 0, P, and Q of that publication. 375

HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA Tble A-. Emptonut status of tht populatb, Icuding Anuad Fore" In the Unid Stata, by mx

7dSMh &P A8 AI AP A y 4

_tU _- ~ A Apr. |ar. Apr. APr. -J.n. .b 8.r lp04 1007 7087 'p. b1 o 7004 1007 7107 1087 la0

TOTAL

-_Db~m~h~fopo~nOO . LI1A 181.843 I03.b15 184.070 I8l.31 I8S.797 118 012 IZo.oa0 120.0I 1%: 575 183,758 183.015 184.-09 P.W. 2 370.087120.334 720.702 121 .... 45.3 12D.58 121 070"a0 109.890 5...... 74.95. 4.4 7ll.Y43 112,774 I10ID.4 . 45.8 5 112,387 112,750 11511Z 48.4 40.0 41.3 40.0 1135104 113.57D nAA 47.3 "S.4 41.4 4.5 FwOO. . . . *.. 47.77 73A 1 735 1.A9S 1075D A47I44A 13 7 174 1 773 I 7:55 3 .1221 22,32 10223 3. 7 1 .4 23A U _Psod- " 5.24 5320 IDSI05 ID8707.2I7 1 07.017 107,a73 I00.10T 108. 04 108.545 870 Ifi Il-tbblob~rlawostnl ...... 1 0 402A 43.7 42.034 *2.04133 s .5 * 42.70 A2.44 A2 57 43.00

_M . O7.120 88.8AX *88271 *7.120 87,848 Iatorltof $88020 88,0 80.l8 08.S271 F_1 *,~i74.0 ss~~~44102 AA.054 4A00 *770A4 74.0 *7.425 *7.472 A7.744 47.444 47.403 TU.1i 11_It nlf75.0 s 7 74.4D * 2 4 $74.7s s *~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.&6.s 74.0 74.0 74.75 1. s2 7 . 8 AI.443 42.201 42.811 A2.233s2b 74.4 0.80 4708 43181 43.335 43.282 70.4 71.2 715 77.7 43.417 71. 71 70 71.8 _ 725.3_ 11.2 *5 7Z37I 1.575 7 S *So4 Tol l720 w l.2 57Z 75750 a 3.03 82714.80 87120455;t *.4387845257 T P.odp. .824 420 4.32 4.i041 4023 4047W400 7.41 40.47 057 4.8 4.27 0. 3 Tftw..... viwVOOO~~~b7.Upli7.I7.I~~~~o1103 o Al?'30 0 So13 2?57.0 .14 78i'32.240 ;~I'31734 51.8737 37.0 ~ 137 3 73. 52747 02 7.74 7I100 3.580 3.4~~~ 1.1231 6.0742 3.3103 ~~~~~~~ ~~0'7t 31.S00 1.7538 3.4071 3,374 L _b~f ~ ...... F,9 AA_1d27 5 5. 85 154 6 65 ,90. 49 3 3 7 1 7 37 4 17.4 1731.5. 3 15.

I _wlff~op~d 40.077 40.352 5 li2050*48257 40.744*0 4*413 401 4M.478 70.00t L4I.op7 3...... 0 4.0 4 .0 7 . 4.4 *.72.47 A.4 4.4

Th_.d Alm_ _ n7t0UlOr _USt 004 07 l8t0. .08ao. aA--- I8v- r~d 1 *T37 9l8 a0 p880 b _y 87 78lpJ.o0808800 _T _ltIOAt_t7p_d o A pt 0 _ 7.l 430bt4o b8Sllo.. 7.. 7.5 ,777 4 *Ot1. P 40_ SS. 8At15Co S . a0 55ho 376

HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA Table A-2.Employment status of the cMlian population by sox and age

M-- 1. __ 4 ,- __

88p. | Mar I ApI, I 89! ID.C. Jan. I 9 I 987. 1 *a,.7- 1986 1387 1987 996 986 1387 1987 1987 1 987

TOTAL

CMI. lanonInslIu.lon.Ipopustkln...... 1.0,148 182.179 182.344 180.148 151.547 181,827 18.998a I82.179 1a2,344 CInIlI.ISool ...... 6.3 1.3...... II.5311S3S47 117.2329 112.58a 6 119 ,S034 119.3 49 119,222 119,335 P.fllkIpM1n-l ... 64. 4 .I . 6*5. I5.065.5 S 65.6* 5.4 5.4 E.pMSW6 . .'0.22. I ...... I I 9 .041 O.53511112 I I I .s3s 1 ";:318. E.VIftnldlllonp0W81 nWoI.0. 680.5 0.9 63.5 l6. 9 6.I .2 . 1. 3 U9.8p10yd...... 8.115o S S.124 7,306 8.323 79 4 8,8023 7.967 7.,54 7.500 3n8198109nlmmrd8...... 7.0o 6 .9 6 .2 7.1 6 .7 6 .7 6...7 6 . 6s .3

C4,11118981111 "31u80090n...... 79,309 79,303 79,87T 7,38.0 787 79.132 79216 79.30 79.37 CM11a.Inlab1l.=c..... 'I801... 6 ,. 1 660 ",08 618 61,48 1,973 61,8 1,976 P.lIOp"lnr .... 7.16....I. 77. 8 77.7 78.0 78.3 78. 78.2 78.2 7C.11 Effloy..57.010 57.752 58.,15 57,392 s58,10 58.227 58,325 5SC410 58 567 E.;;m;14n opallon nt.72.8 72.C 73.3 73.3 73.6 73.6 73. 73.7 73.8 A6M1Wu...... 2..292'8...... 2.231 2.397 2,319 2.289 2,254 2,300 2.411 2, 11 8098330u11u1811n60811I83...... 54.713 55,51 ...... 55,762 55.8'73 ss,8812 55.974 56,0024 55.399 56,1ss Unmploy8d...... 3 .7 94 3.0 3,688 3,725 3.720 3,640 3,57S 3.409 U038Pl0 o .18.6...... 6.2 6.4 5.7 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.5

W.-,,me2P0 n-IrA

OlflARnnon.wntutonpout-on0191383n391n8111u1180811i090181189P.P.1.1...... 87,35517: 115 88,321:,:3241 ot1:se988.395 87,355~~45735 88,813::0s 88.50SS os 88.737 la48.321 I sO 883 27a8s21:o CMI1I.I0 l o=1 ...... SS SV, 46 SS 92355. 4 49,488.161 49.355 4966 P"'nd"S180981..55.0 s5.9 .8 55.2 6 .8 55.9 s5. S6.0 E8.09.y.0...... 45.120 46 .531 46.767 45,094 46,058 46.26 46.475 46,498 46,751 E0.poy-l'.10p41 Wl ...... 51.7 52.7 52. 51.S 52.3 52.5 52.7 52.6 52.9 6330411018..... 553S41 33...... ; 557 .5855s0 621 628 583 587 Noml60~ttn~unr1l1w39018...... 44.566s 46.0oo0144.5 46.210453 47 05 45,45 63 ,83 5 45,930 446.14 Un0p88d ...... 2.927 2.843 2.579 3,087 2.865 2.300 2.873 2.857 2,715 Ummp mn3S...... 6...... 5.8 S.2 6.4 .9 5.9 s.a 5.8 5.5

h -, Ist 1.lo Y.

CIA11881980198 J .18,t8..l8890I89 . 14,485 14.555 14.562 14,.484 14,558 4.s545 14.546 1454.555 14.562 CM11 31oc ...... 7. 48 7. 27 7.341 8,031 7 .837 7926 8 .028 7,84 7.894 PDIiCIp-lionfl"8l...... 51.6 50.1 50.4 55.4 53.8 54.5 55.2 54 .2 54.2 Employ...... s.6371 ...... 5.946 6,115 6.483 6,378 6.524 6.582 6,460 6.518 E19pl939989l.98p1J18nn083...... 41z.9 40.39 42.0O 44.8 44.5 44.9 45.2 43.4 34.8 Agru ...... 270 22 269 95 251 64 25 84 9 80088114311U18111160811188...... 5.801 5.745 5.845 6.1 6,227 6.260 6,287 "'.176 6.22 Un mpI07d...... 19733 1.341 1,226 1;.94 1,359s 1.4.2 .1446 1,424 1.376 Un mp103M1 rt .18...... 18.7 98.4 16.7 13.3 17.3 17.7 18.0 18.1 17.4

a CMIInn89pwpnnt SSSpan8x t 1.0c 6o il9an 1983 tWlon8lpop7d 9. I 338-111,psuttlonpop- 1.th1318 fig .- 1.9.td.OAdead1.1811y he ad8881.11.08;1,.80.8801- _I.Ace. thi ,Id-f. 377

HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA Table A4- Employwent status of the ohi[an population by race. Oex, age,L.d Hpanic aflin 880- 41 -..

Fee_

IE-b, ,-H- -a - 880 I. I ; Fus8 8.-lo

iApt 8si Apr . Apr. 0.. a.. Nar.5.F. r

acoo.,n.dnwtt..rpop~sen...... A d 1 fow ...... *55.122 154.I171754,373 154,437 754.547 1S4.474 802.740 102.503 I1OZ.754 102,.893I7OZ.187 02OZ894 dptnnb...... , 5. IZ 800.528 2-s 4S.si7 4s5.7 45.8 45.;7 457si7 Bud-- ...... 1. 8 65.42 scU . to ...... ntlo s.-0 74.2 5.984 5.970 4.929 4.898 5.789 S,554 E8s70nn~Onad so e . 6.- s5.. UricM...... 5.5 Ss.0 U #l %...... ';. 3 S341142.448 95.172 55.182 54.I1S Chillanby labor ...... 50.27 54.107 54,05 50 413 st,;i 51,284 51,2Zi7 51.734251.34 51.442 -Piwflon .a ...... 7s.7oo 51 20 50.43 73., 13.0 6 75.4 74.5 14.5 14.5 74.4 Eta...... 51.2 Z2.8584728835Z 2.81 2,Z.79 3 2Z. 508 5.4. S.,7 unumpl nx...... 5.05.8 3.7 5. dEplaElpW ...... Myle9I0slo307.l ...... 2 .Z1 5Z.3 5Z.3 5.2 ~5.45Z.7 5.8 Emw ...... 54.5 58,515 4Zll0 Z.OZ2 7.92 37.982 U-.5,Is ...... D01, SZ.7 51.5 55.01 55.20 *.55. *5.3 55. Ue...... 52.3 52.4 52.4 527. 52.9 menp. b n...... 5,.

EA n on~W l oor b...... ;1., 5.53 S..'is -1.5 U PxmIWlo...... 5.797 5.852 5,098 5.785 5.837 Embw...,...... I...1 58.7 49.2 58.5 4.5 59.9 ...... 7,024 1.033 1.,057 17,047 7,024 75.7 7;5.0 75. Z i75.5 A ...... ls.5 74.7 74.4 70.8 74.3 73.9 13.1 BLCK 3.88102087808147o.JO31DaOwl . 7iZ.i8iZ 20287 20.Z7; iZ.91420.152 ZO.787 20.27l8 20.749 702*787 v mthn ...... J 2 6. 25 s. 27 ; 5s s 254 * .

lon...... 87O8...... 3 .8 54.0 a _ ... 54.4 54.0 44 4 54.5 54.8 544 4 .0 .5 54. ur0n388n8 , 7 838...... 8 8.854 7.7 7,453 m ...... 74.4 80.8 82.0 14.8 73.7 74.3 14.3 73.8 73.0 883 o n ad ; a0781 olo...... 5.880 5.848 5.858 5.804 5.847 5.X80 *4.072 5.87 088e73808P8nltkne.5370087o88o.. 5.388 . 5.08...... 74.08 5.23474.2 5.275 74.2 75.0 7445 749 75.7 474.0 5 5.s48 5.244 5.254 . 5,288 .. 5.0 5 5.3;8 088p70889.oowssl~on,.87.44...... 7 M~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~41 1. 2. 1 37 -0 D D e_ ...... *.8 45S.07 45.7 45.4 45.7 45.7 *-4.D 44. I44.4 U l. 43 755 73 7 74 3. 72.0 88...... 78.0 72.2 72.0 77.S 70.9

CM85011ntrlol . 4.. .838 5.878 4.882 5.853 5.907 5,884 4,000 P Myt.8.0...... 58.9 58.3 5.87 5,878 870 50. 58.7 58. 59.4 58.8 5.705 5.287 58.4 58. 7 088o~oy8880...... 5.258 5.820 5.702 5.221 5.255 5,277 ...... 57.8 41.7 42.7 5,730 0 d ...... P8870780870918.0 48.0 35.4 35.4~~~~~~~~~~~-S37.7 ...... 7 S 2.0 l 52.Z S57 ...... S3 43. 39.8 40.7 424 4 .0 5.s0 . . l...... 73 7s 73 775 7 0 ...... 7 . 12.5 72.3 72.8 7 2. 7 .

0777380 83 _ ...... 8 350^ 74 s8 749 830 0555°3 8i40 : 875Z 0789849...... 84s1 845 50...... 3S4...... 481 4S0 ...... 540 5 e27p09t7alnw. .23 42 520 558 537, 524 22.3.4 22.7 25.0 53 ...... 3...... 24.2S 2.0 24 24.3 03 3 4 5 4 8 U8788788708858.0; ...... 40 ...... 7 .. 37.4.. . 34.3...... 48.9 84.5 39.5 38.9 3. 00.8 88888...... 80...... 3s 42.8 88.0 3.4 42.7 S 34.8 43.2 38.5 38.8 4 ..

OO-p*oYnIo.op08P4888C 808.8 3jf~o14 59 ,,_....nW...... S. M 2 . 2079F 58s;.3 2 s D5 1; 43 5S . 354 sFDZ2 4 Ds 402i0t 40 3 084788r377abpop8,laolona0v177bicrlo...... 3 .7.255...... *ZZ2.732 7.804...... 8.324 82.7708,484 82.2557.948 82.5408.320 82.453 72.492 72,732 72,770 BnD87470887081080W .....r m ...... 3*D.D 4.4:. 'I. s D. 8.40783 G1 .457 8 392 8.484 44n54.5 45..4.* 45.8.45.0.44..4.4...45. 3.0 s *.Z 0...... S ...... 44 4 444 7.7.439 7.707 1 ...... 798 780 787 7h4l7gu08n 98nnol5D7 0 840 74 83 8 753 783 * 0.8. 8.8989998.8 98.0880888.80.8., 180 394 108 : : - l 2sep1208. 18. 32 8 , 08838..2s8888788IE4805 12,S705 0.801079 t701 nS8 ows4nD80i H14pnk8241

8808A4. Comm _ * 8 38, 084071088.888.8808.8I8 -D 88.500:*_ d 8or888 .d n488r8In 009w 88808818.8 c0l 1885lO981.o888ndH 88l7807 .DI nl88770780384D 1 378

HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA Tab*eA 4Cle d_cl oFkl h1i1 ob1

4,l~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~a

05158A1885 . 052$150.211.410.6 0.01101113215.011.5 28:,212 W~l~.alwI.W8D==* .. 26A.0S 27.07 280.57 26. 22.400 22.525 22?,01 27.54 W1311S050fl1555~...... 5.841 5.5A3 A 00 575 A.05 554 5,D ,50 .52

I&AMEDUAY AN1DCLAW OF WORKER

1 AS 17059 1.58 W..30553 =.4 1. 4574 3.1D 5.3 564DDl 5.60 X I- I IN, 1 1~~~~4.45A.0 1I.700 IA.21 ::16.201612 6.3 1458 A4 558342500.152 W.11D 7n8 . 7.242 55.052 8357 5$7.858 St1644 55.55D 5574

bA_ l~~~~~~1.2CC7 5.104 .2225 1.00257 1.50 lr2A 1,204 1.227 5.2A6 02.027 82,3AZ OnO75.483 81.75 01. 5524 83.958 81:5,2 8585225 025.D038 2 Lvewft~my~ ...... 25 284 270 251 20 246 5 273

*8 S81Al5

13055...... 2.443 2.4402 2.26°w 5 2.5 4 2.666.62 2.335 2.44 2.322 13,8 Cl lb . 594.552'S 15.146837 15 14.54313.500 53.877 14.9770 14,06 13.6 `2

.14 511 F__ 0 31 _ m .5.1...... 4.555 4.78' 5.3A7 5.042 5,20 5.57 "5 : t 2.347 2.404@ 2.4202 2.80A2 2.27475 2 525 2 742 8 2.555 2.442 t5134O5408O 13.255 F*Mh.paslas ...... 53 50.457 j 14.202

2 FA_111b88113810030_ Dl 00* .l 5 M~ DU W 8818

Table AL _bosa ci munsplensaat ins~aM. based us sen _eg dalhol~asa of _asea~plqnmeustand lab I 1, P. P

88SO*U580588 ::1 :.:~ 6.7~~21.16.8I A.62 45 40 A . Sb 7880 dM~~~~~~~~~~~~~M 28038 2 2 3SM~

_ f~ ~ ~~~~~~~15s7t ~~3581587

U.1 _AD 15 _^ Pl bl_"s pll d1110 _ 0 000 _ 03 0_ P.C. Oar. Apr.- 1d I 05 820 ...... 0Iv I W.OU 0*.2. * 2 . 2 . * 26. IN-. 0FmM''kPl- WMIL_ dWNI

0.1 D. Job5NARN...C.0 0 .l- .50 3.2 *.5 0.5 0.4 .0 8.0 0.2

Wok.,UNYPWO ...... I 912 ..15,1 .5 14.9.3 !3.3 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.1 5.1 5.5 4.58

58WOIdt7 ...... 5 . ~~I-U81113 lSCM C13MSCWO..C OS8i1III31 F~b AP W - CPmS p80 CMU801f.tM50a 0XTw-...... ,S .4.14.- 2.420 7.0 7.0 2 .8 A.8St. .4 4.5 6.2 8.2. 3.A2 8.58 U , ...... 30.4 50.5 50.2 0.2 70.0 IJk" T .S..7...... bl...... 5..6.5 7.5 5.7 7.3 A.1 6.7 6.6 6.s

I84kW. P-1 jM A 6C8" 4W5CM15 f 548w ftC .0

... *.i8..5 _o 8 .5 .... s O . 8130888138 5- 4 ...... 5 A 5. s 5.2s0 5.0. 5.3 379

HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA Table A-4 Selected unemploynont Indleato,, sassonally adjustad

*7073*

Apr . P.C. *rC. LOC. 003. Ja.. 704. . AFr. M...'G~~~~~~~~7~dP.. 8p*p42 3 C-",

TghlWfi7AnoPao_ ...... I.5 . 7 ...... - 1.7 6 6.3 M en ...... 4,57 Z 4.1.. 6.0 .7 . 6.7 6.6 6.3

WN. 0,7fP7P078 3.8s0 3.407 . o.O I.34 I.7 . W3003,0p870l0n3 nd0r 3087 28745,T15 6.*4 5. 5.07 58 5. 5.5 -AA58 . 9...... 5 + .2. .4241 7,376 CS. 17.3 17.7 8.0 I*5.1 7.4

608I3.dm.I...... 74. 1,721 7...S 4.7 4.3 4.2 4.I 4.1 .. Un.d7134r q .78PADI1 . 1.4 1 1 .38 7,70 5.35I z44.85 4 .0 s4 47. 0 45 4 W0woAp7*oomnr.P83111 680 C 63 * *5761 *.5 .8 0*.8 * *.5 * .7 3 3

F3I4IJPIw806.7 6.730 6.273 6.010 6.7 6.3 6.4 6.3 6 7 5.0 PO ..3 - .. 1...7 1.50. 1,483 .4 8.8 0.3 8.7 0.7 3.5 7 11 ...... _ _ _ ...... 7 76s 7. 7 4 18888l7P

N11303 om A Z52.17c~mnrn787 88 0-..4 77..4 14.. 14. 4 I.3 1.., c3301-Am 8 A 761 750 725 .53 3.7 7 . 11.6 1 _ M87377374370 1,3141.s4,6 1,340 6.0 6. 6. 6. 6. 6 7

A70pgA81b7yI 7 . 7 AW. -33PM 1 703 5 4 .. W77A7d l n337IA. .. I ,70b4 7,6090 1,6727 7.0 7.7z 7.3 7.74 7.35 7.0i FGo.JspnI ~.ol3odO . . 170 ,575 S .3 5.s8 * 5.1 5 s.72 5 .4 4 .09. 4. 7 AtureouAnltva.0.188340 wo. 5 230 7I 758 78.4 77.5 11I.6 11 r.7 78.7 0.0

*~357.P = oyun bI 157.37Ir7AU 17111.7337dA0387d* 3 P0738073P0.43l 0.7A3n1.3 7373533A.

Tabli A-7. Duratlon of unemployment

M7,,kA d __n 7A b7dlNM d Ad W.06.30 NMM ..7 - A-P Apr. 000. Apr. ApC. 0.8. Jal.. Feb. 001. A0, 7086 7087 108s7 7086 I708 100s7 7087 7387 r733

[WR/APON

LA I* 06A 3 74D3o.5j....i2.5 3...... 7Z.4. 3.355 347 3,37 4,38 .743

30774.876* 2.35077_7AA~ 7.67 7.070 7.658 2.17,300 7 7.477 7.47 7.7-

273.. A m .w 7.555 ,384...4...... 3...... 71, ' I A 8 7.7 7.I' 7.75- 0-t7d.. -19771n, 7.3 il Z87 i45i 7,487 17,748 7,7 D 7737. 4 1.l A- ~AtSOO.7l.030.7.8.75...... 8 75.6 76.8 74.7 73.3 75.8 746 4.0 74:.0449

Toblurry d.. .. .04D2D...7038 70. 088.8a783.7 738.0Z 783.0 733..8c '77. 0 UNA078788 30...... 6 37.0 38.0 57.7 47.4 47.0 47. 747 47. 5030487 .. 70.5 32.9 277.6 31.8 38.7 1.1 37.7 37.7 30.0 05...OAWw...... 3 0.. 70.32t.3 33.43.....30. 255 -74 7.0. 27.7 268 77

Z7 o33p 75.4...... - 74.6, IS57 738 745 74.5 747 743 74.1

79-018 0 - 88 - 13 380

HOUSEHOLD DATA . HOUSEHOLD DATA Tale AL Reaso for _1mp&- *~ ~ izz______Apr. I .. A r. I Ap.i I 8;- | I;; I ;; | I r;I. i Apr.

_o or mpWE D

I.005 4.227 1':8220 31,32,SS Jlbbc ...... X3.020 2.035 Am g ...... I...... 8.021 2.812 :.. 2.714 2.:15 21 .5 ...... 1 .07- 1,010 :08 "I 2.010 .. ".. reen...... 2.0.2 2.30 2 .*0 '62 Is, 50.05 42 51:12. *2.. 100. . Jobl U ...... *.0S .S 12:: Onwpn .. 12.4 21:5 'S Oth._ft 'b ...... 1. 2 2,30 100.0 3?.. bft ...... 12.5 .24. ;,2:: ...... ,':I ' 1 _ ca ...... 0.1 12.8 3. 2 12. 1 - I S. I I.,I . UlZ M LAAMFORMET f H I25.2 I2.t 2. 5.1 Jo bu ...... 3 2 I 1o ...... 3.3 3.3 .: S' I_...... I I N_ D...... I:: . . . .

Table A4. Uremployed pomons by &ax and age asasonallyadjsted

ApI. IFr. Apr Ap. 0.3. J~n. reD. 0.,. Apr. 1004 1807 1087 1004 IOS 1087 10j7 187 I007

TA03.30.3...... 3...... 7.5 700 7.1 A. .7 .7 A.4 A.5 io24p .3...... S 2.0 13.7 12. 13.1 3.1 12. 2.A 10t31090 ...... 1..1...... 4 .s.14 30.3 17.3 11.1 18.0 10.3 17.4 §100317n...... 40A Ala 423 20.8 10.0 20.1 20.3 20.0 I .2 38W1800030...... ts 753 75A 0B.4 14.0 IA.2 IA.A I .S 14.4:A.3 2.00p0 .l.A7O 1.545 1.523 10.8 10.7 30.7 I0.S 10.2 10.1 253 nd0lw...... 5,007 4.012 4.558 5.44.2 5.2 S.1 S.l 4.8 25O54I .4...... 521 4.3AS 4.01 S4.7 S S.S 5. 5.4 S.0 .5...... S 0 512 . 3.5 3.2 3.0 3.4 3.4

M1 o ...... 57 . 2 4...... 4 .7 S .7 . . 024 ...... 5 1.5 4.2 1. .4 . 13.2 1.2 l00oI058...820 700 777 20.00 1. 1:1.AIs.S .SI ,owny ._ 30303lWI3...... ~~~~5s5 ~~~~34454 ~~~~~~~3433A4 21.12X.i 10.3 21.41:iz2 2,1.2S 202 2."i 183188ofldn...... 447 444 41 10.2 11.0 14.0 17.0 10.4 17.5 201 O2 ...... 11. 1 0. 10.1 2su "' ...... 2.75.2.158 2.301 5.2 5.2 5.4S S.1 .1 4.0 54 ...... 20 24 2.2 5.5 .4 . 5.7 .4 5.0 0._0...... 14 34. 30054.0 4.0 3.5 3.0 3.4 3.7 Wr 6I ...... 2 1612403...... 2.4 I.1 12.4 12.4 12.0 lo n ...... 1 INAS 30 18.3 34.8 1.8 117.4 14.7 15. I0IWl...... 320...... 524325 257 20.4 30.4 -8.7 10.2 35.7 14.7 33lo10_n.8.403..... 30S0 ....345 ...... 31.4 I.7 15.3 14S.3 14.2 15.1 120o.ys...... 742 745 720 13.2 10.0 10.4 0. 10.3 30.3 0 ...... 2.030 2.:11 1 0 5.7 5.2 S.3 S.1 5.0 4.1 2554 ...... 2.101 1.28 1.80 .0 5.5 4.3 5.4 5.4 S.0 55l0 r.lI ...... 220 133 104 3.0 2. 2.7' 2.4 3.2 3.0 381

HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA T " A.10. 11 ls sss s u oftb mab wU slhw wortu

Ap 58r |I Lt . ; 0|59 J~n. |F.. | or. *pt.r

,PI 0 43. 89.5 435 6. 4. 42 42 6. i__5 5 25 025...... 25.....8.5 25.667 25.l525 2.456 25.55 2zz ssss5.567257.655...... 23.467 '~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~--_Fdd vsisfi T W 2 5252 055 2,:5.III::283 Z.54 5 182.0 -4_~_2:.505 2.06 5.2 7Wb -m am7ass_&_dil*_ piadpas~als...... :.: 237. 53.45 .5 .25..275 p .502 54 51.56 5.2 * 15.. ~popan., ~~~~~s~ ~ *If ~ ~ ~ s.~ 5.. - pi2o. t.s.os-popia Mth. .ndsd 005I5 .4wk

Tib A.11. _O1pefo tatu Todo m - d admW nou,td as_

-- - 5.-

Ap.1es 1st7 tws~~~is_r I9tr 1sp. XsAt_r

TOSSss,.ard 55.2.511 1 It.1 1154 8. 3 7.30 7.0 6.2 5s6 596 2. 2.1 _ 85 5 . 21524.. 27.418 .4 ...... 12.48 52.5551 275 535 2.2 2. 5 bmn1W .ss,..006 14,437 28o 265 2.0 5.5

T __d_ ....l.. 3 54.4. 1 5317 4. 4 .3 T. l5ass.. 5 25*... 1* 552 3.6 5 .6 _ 12~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.575 58.564 62 656 5. 5.0 suatfdsg .68 55.548l~ 740 733 4. 3.5 sa5a0405,0 ...... 569 55.082 5.420 1.234 5.8 7.6

PWsl..585 al.5 ...... s s..009 52260 to4 .576 7 5.5 . assop't'sla ~ ~ ~ ~ 5245 3.65 552 55 5. 65 _ *~~~~~~~~~~~~.526 4.385 045 202 s.s s.s

=...... T.o24 45153 857 28 7.2 I5ass5 I. I .5 _ "ma"_ d 1 57.76T.765 2.5 S W .atwmam.U .8alla .. 7...... 7 .57 555 5,7 50. 5.

citialitaflatiall- 4~~~~~~.5124..531 71S 172 135 12. 00s5S.5s~~~~~~~~~~~~fs. W 5.0 655 754 5~~~~~~~~~~~73204 25.0 22.2 = 3.583T7 542 460 52.2 150.

1-'.- .. . . .357 3.458 503 242 *.2 6.5

_5553555w~ no p_ 05 55_ -05 aa 55* 50 s r05D5 5204P05. ~55508555.5056 382

HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHoLD DATA TOMiA-IL. MmW maa Status OfMINI VbeUrn~q whmW. m.nvWemns by age not asnoafly odlsft

5--9 suias -

T~~~~~~~df~

AAp. . ApP. Ap. AAprAAr.p. p APr.A,

TlW.305W-d ...... , .2 f 4 0 1 85 a i

StUls. .. 4.184 2.757 0.522 2.5fi4 2.880 2.575 582 125 5.4 *.7 ..41...... 2.052.5.7 1... 2.457 1.887 2 .50 125'58 4. 4.I 5 -d ...... I.312 1.54 "as.0p *.294 1.01 5.224 43 8 4.5 5.5

T70130.O s ...... is.l78 15.252 1 .194 18.184 18.251 17.402 543 582 5.5 5.7 Tel;34 ...... 1 5*21 7:8,12 *: 92 TT "a s *4415815 4.2f11 4.878 0.525 4.072 5.725 4.80 204 2S 5. 4.5 18071...... N07t-_aldht l~lldF ZhdFdCbrnlldIOIlJ O.w ....dr lI .WUln ... .. 4 0 .8rp l. *.or2 5 .45 so gs 4zo os smz al 3o* 5388.01My ...... 41N _ -dh1 u..m.....A, ||Zs 800 0105*i.7523 01 0VSWSI 25*025 104200 20. 383

HOUSEHOLD DATA NOWMEOLD DATA Table A-IL'EMBu M t eto of tdo eMmpqbAtln f, elvn 1s-Slat

- - I; .i::$s Ea,;i F ::7 I i I:s"u : .,

_ ' '.i.f 1.,:11 11@J121°t 1,1:t * 1:2 5g1:l1 ^: !

U.. ::: ...... 8: X0s 1900 . 8rz :4t $2 s 0x2

U.__.W p ...... 6.7 j 5 '8 l. *°.....5.~ 0 5 .8 .7 * 6.2 .2 60 5.85

...... ~ s . .* l 3 7 ._.,o 5... 3".O, ,5.20 1.4 3.5 .3'0475,557,63 ,5.1 24 06, 2 0 _ 7a I 7,~~~~~~11 77972 207 30I .°N 77I' l12

_ .Op ; ...... 54lj 5.**oi 1.1s 3*oo *4.83$*aj *,.o 7 5.6i _ ...... 8§.-MMWW" ,4 64 I 0 . 5~.61 Ck.10...... ,,,..5,6 ,:1 I . ,.,, .,1 I

. . ~~~~~~~~~~~~11,.,.. ,6:6 420o .05 4 483 46 ...... , . .1 . , 2 , , ., I, T., a....2

Ch_...... 7 i797...... 5 39 7 P 0 3.3 j .5 i 7 5 7 . .b0'ii*,j77jj _M.1 .....,.....5s3.0 :1,340s5j45,,2b,2iw" '6:"'. 6X°:"." ...... t os3664.0 @ o 3s~va$si ts3w!.6 4.0 .. 4,3 I Ij W. -o ...... _ _ ___ 6 . __

-----i-A= "-v I I 384

ESTABLISHMENT DATA ESTABLISHMENT DATA Tabl 8.1. Employeeaon nonegrdcultural payrolls by Industry

T-W~...... 4'32.57 63.526 63.636 94.732 63,072 6A.560 86,7A66636 65,034 I6I.522

o ...... 26,715320,343 24.472 26,795625.038 26.620 25.06 25.038 253.006I 7.066

MA ...... 826 723 722 7 33 602. 738 702 733 7335 760 ...... A .'I 615.81 424.A III2,6 S 620 6 22 62 A26 626

cmuboc~~m 6.383 6,..59.A...6...... 83 A,602 A,91695;203I3.0 5I.25 5.082 A.0.e222AI2020000072300037 .2A0.0 .293.2 .209.2 2,236.7~~~~~II1:2,315 2,3:.3 .3211 .379 .8

n-a~~~~o62d2 22.362~~,:1112223 27.257 II.26 2365 22,269 22.225 22.300 2232,9 pdeo...... 7. 3 ,83 745 7.670 8,567 7.62 7,660 7,677 7,22 7 I68 t~mb~e.AC.00082042A26. 706.3 739.7 79.21 763.0 723 763 752 752 755 756 Fu~o.e2 ...... 095.3 50.6I 56.5 5073 96 580 5003 50 50 .57 p0-.ag o2Iio V32...... 730. 752. 726 727 78 75 72 72 6 ...... 022 . 967 227 2 80.2: 632I 92 27 66 27 29 6 6660510..y.6002023222200..... 3.225,0' 2,02. 2.0, .5, .22 220 209 203 2,00 .6 E2.OAIO.2n,2.0002099020020922.270,6 4.2,6 .03,627,3.9327 2,220 2,256 2.2531 2,62 70 Teaeooo.2.l~~~oeine~ . .,.... 2.989,3 2,962.13.2,161w 2..797, 2,6 2,90I 267 I .I I292 .7

2e372222.0723023227.0200003722 7705 .2 706.3 705.2 72I0 0 0 70I0 2416A321,O~man~faetOIOO.... 6 7:671 523.6 323.8 5.68. 329 37 39 3700~ 3 1'70'

fsgs...... 7.7641 7,830 7,625 7.162 7,20 7.9 .03 792 7.92 :7.32 ...... 5,63.5,5035.536.5,54 5.52 5.5297 5,9 5.59:'3 5,20 562 -006l2I-30 I07...... 2.....373,22.6102,22.602,9 2.603, 2.,233 2.6571 2,252 2.659 2.663 2,651

7n1.e1100o2 ... 703, 722.6 726.7 726.6 703 729 722 72 726 776 A00ae-eA027w2fIh222.2.2.... 2,22.2.262.222. 2 I12.297 2.229 12,2 2..22 2",229 ,22 2.22 P_ ...... 265.2.26.7 29.2 22.7 266 697 29925 3 232 poeo~~g~eoe.Mno2.6 2,673.5 2,503.9 2.507,5 2,525~"S.82,672 2,I,29 .0 2,I.505 2,026 7.522 C0.o~ooloeO.20.o200222 2,02.7 2,02. 2,027. 7,027.2 2 ,026 I.2,020 I,02'202 2,09 22 I803763020002... 3.....255.12 252.0, 25'I7,5 226 259 25 259 258 25

. .9 ...... 255.9 250.0. 230.6 252.2 257 253 252 253 253 253

a26 ...... 00..602. 76.252 72.259 77.335 76,765 72,002 06,628 76.626 77,1005 77,279 3e*3383230329390p.670...... 5,2 23 51,3.221 5,325 5,377. 5:.262 5,559 5,082 5,92 5.22 5.2 T~~anspoottlo.,~~~~~~...... 3.026 3.0 3,2 326 300 3,223 3,26 3,5 ,2 5.229 Ce~wr.000710a00pfl10601122. 11.2,225.. 2.232 2,235 2.233 2.226 2,230 2.262 2.262 2,209 2,206

6J80...... 0 5,278.... 3.676 0.686 3,6.92 3.6651 3,632 3,295 3,693 3,50 3,29 9030o220.1 ...... 2,.360 2 ,3639 2,5503 2,066 3,373 2.326 2,329 2,078 2,5377 2,095

GI-d.te 2,878.6 232,612,93. 8632.2' 2,3120 2.3796 2,990 3.00 :5,06 5.2 t....0d...... 2 ...... 2.932. 2.220:11 2 .929.121 2 .379.9 2 30 2.96 2:.988O 2 592 23.89 7MI98 E~t.oaodddn1logql...... 3I.359,0 5,822.9 5.930,0 2.222, 5,059 6,035 6,060 I.62 6 2,22 0.223

...... 2,'906 2,005 2.026 12,020 2,32 2.99 2.002 2,007 3022 2.02 ...... 2.282 2,232 ,231225 ,23 2,066 2.252 2.265 12.22 12,72 6...... 22,87 203,692 23,720 23.926 22,825 23,578 2367 2351.75 231:.620 23,322 2eA~~on662o7006 6,7072697366,362 .0, .26867 6.930I 3,1:1036 5 75,07 06611533202033 6,502,7 6.767,2 2,808.6 2,9~~~~~ 7,2 ~~~~~27..2 2.75 6766 6,807 2.836

F20,s2. . . ~~~~2.9082,897 292 2,3 ,2 297 2366.2 2 ,5 ,:'.I907 ...0 ...... 22,022 20.209 20.272 2026 9.859:: 2.008 20,2 2 0.0I000 2.7

p..86..,nn,. 385

ESTABLISHMENT DATA ESTABLISHMENT DATA Table 32. Average weeky hours of podductioe or nonsuprlacry workers on privatenonapreulture payrolls by industry

a..- -~~~~~~ ah--.op..d -

,T. 6 ...... 4..2.. D.C. I ..... 5... h .. . 5.. 1334 2347 2337 2347 C 3 184238 |4337 19 198 ? , '

Tlb...... ,...... | ...... I.$ (2) ( )7

e32 ...... 2 42.4 42.4 42.4 02. 4(2 (2) (2) 42) (O2)

b 40...... '.5 40.3 40.3 40.4 40.7 40.. 41.0 41.5 51.0 40.3 ...... 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.D 3.3 3. ).5.4 3.7 4 ...... *1.2 41.5 41 .4 41.3 411.3 40.7 44.0 40.3 40. . . I ...... 3.* 3.3 33. 3.0 3.4 3. 0.2 0.4 43. 3.

SSOC.4547w,404...... 3 44.9 42.3 .2*.2 4. 42.4 4 3.4 4.7 42.4* POViasym.StlussSsI 44..4- ...... 42.7 42.3 42.5 14.3 42.5 42.7 42.7 2.7 04.2 F-4C4524*54234C4 . 44.01 i 44.2:3 4244 47 42 44.2 44.3 4.05 42.4 40. M24C(5.3742C534.C4 44::.5 4012.4 42:. :44.0 44.4, 45I 0 4

044C3240243(05F452344225540. 40, 44. 40. 44. 44. 44.3 44.255 445 40.

4f b ll.474730.0.S...... 44.0...... 44.3 44.4 40.5 44.5 44.3 44.2 44.5 44.3 40.2 4F137/41hO 33.7 53.3...... 35...... 3 3 0.3 734 0 1,(250 2) 42) ( 24:,i _@_~~~~~~~~~5.4...... 33.3s 490.0 33 .4 33.5 ...40.4 0.1 40.4 40.4 39.7 05.730 w ...... 4.15.4 5. 3.4 54 3.3 4 F~~awl~~~lilI~~~eBZ ; 'Z ?;j; i~~~~~~~so 2j °O ,~~~~,3.3: 0. i. s.2 j2 .1j 740440440035,C 53. 33. 33. 33. 4ii0.j2 33.3 40.0 40.0 40.0 55.(Z P.3544.s33.C2030.4p3024,Ct. 45.3 43.20 44.3 453 45.4 43. 43. 44. 44.4 44.0 3o~~r.*ds,,Iso.42.n~~a~plasrssp~~o044.4 44.5 44.4 44)1 4 4 40.9 02). 4027 444 024 3927 4*4474.3.34(.27CC~~~~~~inC2,. 34.3 57.291 37.30 34.3 74 2 44 2 42 444 _1._C444 57...... 337.4 38.0 37.3 53.0 33.4 33.0 34.2 30.9 37.3 _ 5'44.442440274...... 44...... &.3 42 .2 42.2 42.5I 4.3 42.2 42.5 40.2 42.4 40.5

T ~~~~~~~~ ~5.4 3. 44 34. Il2 24 42) 4'24 424 (2 ,__ft ...... 5. .... 3.2 33.4' 35.2 . 3.4 53.4 33. 33.0

327442 . .32...... Z Z.3 .*.

043.3(3425440005.34.343 I~cnhr7r4 552C8o3,*4 3b_117 b n71 Vl *50b.afla 3.- 5543104 233o4(4y2454382 I 3(502 - hr.: 55F3 l b 53*2384n Cs5.3544403..0434 1,,442.5W35_ I ..4n 1us~apoo.342.mesa .74 /4101. 33.2 00I.44f042wl 45.044:03 0s9c. J3 .n4b .4.3 b 4.nrIa 43(4(444.,0.954.23(2 n,0 40444 034.. d925..W.4rasm._'43(.33.34: .7,4 b34t 3"4.I28II7424.34 " 02;244.40*5 704224*0402 ees0oL53 9h 20333 bula3m3(734..4.324.2F 453 32 D.3- . Ib0 l D3532 386

ESTABLISHMENT DATA ESTABLISHMENT DATA

T L Aag Th lyT ad _waly* _ dfAlp F Tn. _ '- On pla nonalultural Piyrob by dutiy

_ea= - -

668. 1.6. 82.. 62.D ^"'7 77.4 T6~ Sni.

T...... 72 . 8. 30 .7 307. 07.59 $0.71 S 0...... 8.72 . .0 8.88 303. 310.10 . 30

Om ...... 12.43 t2.60 12.56 22.43 522.06 532.2 4520.78 519.50

(6_ ...... 12.80 22.6. 12.0$ 22.54 462.10 459.77 470.63 270.25 _ ..... ; @~~~~~~~~~~~.70 0.03. 0.84. 0.87 .E392.80 402.06 602.46 300.75

>__ ...... 20.26 10.3$ 20.36 20.36 423.06 432.23 432.62 427.03 L ...... 6.30 6.32 6.0 6.36 334.88 3.37 337.62 339.42 F477234 ...... 7.38 7.55 7.0$ 7 .33 206.30 206.72 300.40 004.40 672478.0183.r688188.8d206..2...... 0.00 20.23 20.24 20.26 425.00 003.00 420.02 432.90 - 3 iO36 . . 3.82 23.72 23.78 24.20 568.2 570.0 54.2 .3026 07 F*1k.427889218 ...... 0.24 '.68 0.67 '.68 803.44 412.17 412.76 605.37 ...... 202...... 0.86 20.5 437 .63 440.37 430.70 23 .04 E0.6 I.9.66 :.I 0.0. 6.739 382.30...... 403.27 403.65 307.78 TO WI_ ...... 2.83 22.0 22.62 22.66 542.71 548.66 501.86 543.41 I -I.o86787dp.813.. 042 I 6.8 .81 0.365 585.62 36955 237.65 387.387 U2.42ooo.770.o6787 ...... 7.50 7.68 7.68 7.87 207.7 332.62 301.04 257.60

_-I- rww: t6 2...... 6.76 0 06 8.28 332.85 361 '.4 363.20 360.12 FG6.Iarra=0~..7~ 1 .2 8.8 6.68T 388.04 350.053 353.1333r2.020 T060827.27422i..2.. :~r:i:w:2.84 23.38 t3.'76 24.712 160.964 86.3 526.38 318.2 Tf018m4- ...... 8.87:I 7.13 7.24 7.16 276.02 206.03 300.38 282.84 4,8wxndo87.2$I188087.3...... 82 3.86 5.00 3.02 221I.48 228.74 200S.98 211I.34 FP2.62688268dp 8.22.03 11.03 22.28 1.I'22.261.18 .22...... I .30 474.0345 4 .96 878.86 478.12 0,h31nS~d#1 .bllnl727...... 00

P.5 078.24.2...... - 24.33 212.....3...... 7.36.2. 31.7.3O3 125. 426..53 637 .03 628.7

_6_...... 8...... 0.89 5.09 4.04 4.20 2'3.6' 222.93 026.I 0 203.25

7-8.6666.U 6S266 .mm...... -7 S -457II.55 I 15-5 1-2 *5 . 7.43 -

...... 2. .35 9.53 0.55 305.62 363.86 363.78 363.76

...... 6.02 6.09 6.06 6.06 173.89 174.331 75.131 76.35

Fb _ _ _ -d ...... 9 6.721 B.89 S.83 301.76 327.02 3216.3 312.13

...... 8.228.1 - 8.42. ..6.43 6.38I223 0 2 . 2...2...Z1. 328 324.84

*.767797 2_*266 p.p2471. 7.

Tab 84. Hourty EanpIT' inde for productim or r0nsupwftM wwktWS on pftate _lnal6ult82l pyrolbo by InduWT/y

(It".208_._log ~2*".~.*b______a...~__ ___a _ _ _

b- - 478AF. 766. 826. 497. 40*. *67. 268. 368. 6.6. 880. 437. 8

7688018686 12-6 1987 1987P 19sF 1915198*_ 1986 1966 1987 197 1987 C -_dS ...... 2868.4 272.8 272.6 272.2 8.2 268.8 270.8 270.7 272.4 272.6 272.0 3.2 C906311_...... 83.4 64.6 64.3 6.. 223 80.3 90.0 64.4 64.4 84.2 0.0. 23) _ ...... 284. 262.4 282 *11.3160.6 -.2 262 043 4 060 242 242 282 C~~~~l_~~4.8...... I4 20.2 .10I2.3 232.7 10.6. 23. 203.6 20. .752I.2 203.2 2 53.5 .2 _ ...... 272.2 274.2 274.2 270.2 2.7 272.0 273.0 273.4 273.9 273.8 275.0 .6 _ S . 269.0 273.0 272.7 273.3 2.4 260.3 274.2 272.5 272.3 272.0 273.6 .4

NW-I .... !s romar_"_...... 2017.8...... 6. ..I M 8.0.(4A 450.08.41. 250.2 236.0. 2.2 257.3 200.3(4 258.4 256.5"al , 258.8I I 200.7 .2

236 2~~~~~~~~~~:2.. 78.92eces :02g 2 87.5 266.9ac IeDspretth 171:2280.4 3rc*3. 1§8I 242b "3-5~263 "It240 11b 142 242 242 242 4 _ .6.2...... lv.4...4..o44.6..,.o...,n2...2 170.1 ...... 276.6 .....3.3 ,/9.1t.0 2 173.I 726261 173. 176.817 04.7770377'8d 16.479.0 27.92 .1 p ...... Itt p.. 80772476.95.,0 M.488..... 5 d .8.4.ff1ol.38.724 3 t 0rc7.7e 7.7 20 0.36 772,4 870.98846 2064 8876 27, 466 224. Ill(462. 8418..

p~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~I - 11. .- b 1Z1.1. 387

ESTABLISHMENT DATA ESTABLISHMENT DATA Table c-5.Indexex of aggregate weekly hours of pronduci or nonsuaP.y. r o. po f 9sura payeollsby Industry , 7 .10 0_b_

0p1. 6.4. IIo 39_ 398.3 398 0we. 3Ts987 3987S 398 I9817 3I967 33867 3199679 Tel. T~l...... 16.333 116.8 337.9 339.3 9 5- 2--- , 93093 337.8 339.0 339.9 323.3 3270. 300.5 .~9...... 97.6 93.9 91.1 97.4 ...... 99.4 99.0 300.4 303.0 300.3 99.3 C-ld ...... 88.6 80.7 $0.1 80.7 90.2 83.2 83.0 80.3 67.3 93.6 C _ ...... 128.3 ...... 26.8 136.3 110.7 133.7 132.2 139.9 138.7 335.8 373.3 Ilaela ...... 9-2.3 902. .. 92.6 3.3 93.2 83.0 33.4 94.6 90.0 93.3 s...Cu~co ...... 90.0 .3.3 90.4 91.1 93.5 60.5 90.9 93.9 93.3 30.4 him~~~~~~rIv OD 10 3...... 56.4 300.1 101.4 1 103.4 130.7 08.5 308.4 3 303.02 304.352308.0 l30. 3o606.7 306.9 Cdm ... ld...... n~u 89t.4 23.8 2S. 6m---u nlall m e...... 60.4 760.2 62. 9 63.9 43.37 63.2 Zm~1C7C.vd...... 33.6 62° $1.3 52.4 63IO.5 53.8 69.5 67.9 48.9 50.7 50.7 M. h e ec omo...... 87.6 90.3' 6.8 99.4 99.9 88.3 89.0 $9.3 80.7 87.2 ucv,. .~ndc~bio. I...... 064. 9.4 1084.4 5.4 .102.1 302.0 303. 3l 86.6 068. 96.. ll"c ..... 83.9 ~cm"1...... 96.2 91.2 91 .3 33 8. 53 9. 40 8. In~lrov1 an3Nla~3 cn n ...... 86.4 $6.2 Illelilanv6W2 86 .3 mnlldg...... 00.3 3 06.3 30 3 03. 304.. 03. 3 80.6 83.6 943 0635 60 6 1 92.5 83.0 63. 3 8.6 63.2 TCI ...... u_...... [email protected] 94.8 93.2 95.4 95.8 7. l 5.3.gcoo .IAbWT~ll ilc~es...... 9.3 9.0 8 .3° 71-.ove . M63...... 70.8 cvrnllo 771.3 872.0 83.6 78.0 09.3 09.381 8. ~ s...... 873.0 80.5 78.0 83.7 93.7 76.7 89.8 87.2 $1.0 89.6 93.0 83.9 c~~s~mlcovbg. .1bcl2s..... 80. 300.9 303.0 303.5 l I3.7 I6.6 87.6 87. 29.0 90.6 31.27 330.7 333.0 3213. 327.8 330.8 3.3 .~lw.n .~h.~ ...... 93.0 84.0 333.0 37.6 333. 93.9 64.0 93.0 80.4 93.9 93.9 43.7 99.9 ...n ...... 80.3 90.3 179. 17.15 79.3 83.9 80.7 60.7 00.9 4 l769.2 34.8 1133.8 T__Ie3 vd 11191 33.2 339.I1,3 3 76.7 330.0 ~l~b ...... 58.3 57.4 26.9 58.0 38.5 38.9 59.2 00.0 00.5 50.0 __sIO~m ~~~~ ...... 326.7 328.4 329.4 1333.3 327.9 130.1 130.7 33.0 393.9 330.9 . 1...... 305.4 307.4 307.9 3338.0 306.8 308.0 308.7 309.9 330.3 303.6 33.3 1.5 337.8 338.3 33 300.6 119.2 379.0 300.3 119.8 339.9 ...... I333.4 334.2 337.3 32 20.5 313.3 339.2 300.3 172.6 132.02 30.1 334.6 200.0 340.9 342.1 135.0 140.7 343.3 131.8 ab...... 303.3 330.0 .... 306.3 346.8 348.3 34 *9.4 344.2 349.2 308.0 339.7 349.5 339.7 O.0oNllmorllmlostY.

Table 04. Indexes o0diffuslon Percent of IndustrkesIn Which employment' Increased

ThlY_ bn _ . _. 80. W9 -N J 00. 8 pb. 0Da 80A. De.

0097 3983 .52.4 47.8 1.35070 59.9 49.2 51. 3 67.0 56.2 56.9 .59.1 53513986 1.49.116.2 50.8 03.9 57.6 59.3 821 SO 46.2 54. 36.3 54.9 319877 . .6 43.8 650.2 939.2 3 60.7 62.6 0081 3981 5 35.3 68.7 66.0 44i.0 3210om 3986 45.3 53.4 49.7 33.3 53.3 s.58s.3 54. 3.3 49.7 09.0 99.9 63.0 60.5 9291 44.9 87.3 307 54.9 60.0 3987 .40.5 854.8 940.8 65.7 s 69.0 0-1 ...... 8 63.0 63.8 46.3 64.3 n Ihi0Y 77 48.9 30.8 56. 157.0 50.0 53.9 3984. 59.9. ...93.8 47.4. 4.9 43.9 -8.6 69.7 55.0 63.1 40.5 61.1 293.7 D1_1 3983 . 6. 2 65. 44.8 43.6 320116275 7966 ...... 50.3 53.3 06.9 67.3 47.6 68.9 47.3 52.2 3. 52.7 54.6 53.5 69.3 I8.s 6 0 3 ... 53.3 757.3 P57.0 -987

2119&577.~cz6NrO ib NDERunhos~lln~seewl cl-tli0(Flo~on 388 Senator SARBANES. Well, thank you very much, Commissioner. I have a couple of definitional questions first. How is "adult" defined when you talk about the jobless rates for adult men and women? Mrs. NORWOOD. Twenty years and over. Senator SARBANES. I take it that for that age group the unemployment rate now for men is 5.5. percent and separately for women is 5.5 percent. Mrs. NORWOOD. That's correct. Senator SARBANES. The unemployment rate among black workers seems to have fallen more rapidly since February than for other groups. Is that decline statistically significant and is there an explanation for it? Mrs. NORWOOD. The unemployment rate for the black workers needs to be a little more than nine-tenths of a percent in a single month to be statistically significant. Over the last several months, there clearly has been an improvement for black workers, but, of course, their unemployment rate has been extraordinarily high. Their rate fell this past month from 13.9 percent to 13.0 percent in January and February. Senator SARBANES. Now do you have any theory on why this is happening? Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, I would like to believe that it's because of job growth and that that is being shared now by more people in the economy. I am concerned, nevertheless, that the unemployment rates, even though improved over the past year for the black and the Hispanic population, remain fairly high. Senator SARBANES. Now that rate is for-when we say 13 percent for blacks-- Mrs. NORWOOD. That's the total black population. If you look at the individual groups, there are some significant differences. The rate for black teenagers is extraordinarily high. It's in the 38 percent range. Senator SARBANES. And do you have it separately for adult black men and adult black women? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. It's 10.9 percent for black men 20 years and over and 11.5 percent for black women 20 years and over, and then it's 38 percent for black teenagers. Senator SARBANES. And do you have the same figures for Hispanics? Mrs. NORWOOD. No. All that I have for the Hispanics is the overall rate. That's a smaller group of the population and we really need to use annual average data, which we can supply to you, to have further breakdowns. Senator SARBANES. If you would do that, we would appreciate it. Mrs. NORWOOD. We'd be glad to. They generally fall in between the black and the white. Senator SARBANES. In your statement this morning you pointed out that most of the decline in unemployment occurred among workers who had been jobless for a short period of time, while long- term unemployment remained quite high. Mrs. NORWOOD. That's quite right. 389 Senator SARBANES. I understand that in Europe, where unemployment has been more severe than here in recent years, there's a growing concern that employers are simply refusing to hire those who have been out of work for a year or more on the assumption that they have lost their job skills. That's an issue that's now apparently being debated there. Do your figures suggest that the same phenomenon is occurring in the United States, that we are increasingly structuring a permanent class of unemployable individuals? Mrs. NORWOOD. I'm not sure that it is a matter of losing job skills. I am sure that 1,100,000 out of work for more than 6 months suggest that they are in some very real difficulty. There are, of course, some specific geographic problems that we have. They tend to be concentrated in central cities. They tend to be heavily minority. They have different experiences in different industries which also exacerbates the geographic problem. So I'm not sure that it's entirely a training problem, though clearly that is important. Senator SARBANES. Thank you. Congressman Wylie. Representative WYLIE. Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman. Clearly, you have brought us good news this morning for which we are all very pleased. Is this decline in unemployment soft or would you say it's fairly firm? Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, I always look at the data and try to report them as best I can. There has been, I believe, extraordinarily vigorous employment growth. We did have a little bit later survey week this month and that may possibly have brought a little of the employment that the seasonal adjustment process would normally pick up next month into this month. But my belief is that if that happened, it would be a relatively small amount and that we would still have very vigorous employment growth even so. Representative WYLIE. Much of the unemployment that we've experienced over the last several months-maybe 2 or 3 years back- was in the manufacturing employment area. Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. Representative WYLIE. And I noticed that that's down considerably for the April figures. Does that seem to be fairly firm to you? This is a big area of unemployment-or it was at one time, and caused the big unemployment figure that we first say. Would you care to comment on what impact that might have? Mrs. NORWOOD. It's quite clear that factory employment doesn't seem to be going anywhere. It has been relatively unchanged, with slight upticks and slight downticks, over the past year. Very little has happened over the past year and over the course of the recovery period, the 53 months of the recovery period, we have really recovered only about half of the employment that we lost in manufacturing. 390 Now we're talking about employment I want to emphasize, and not about output. Output has remained relatively high in manufacturing. We are just producing more with fewer employees. Representative WYLIE. Now Senator Sarbanes touched on the statistics as they relate to geography. You have in your cover sheet here-let's see, it says "Household Data Table A-13," and it indicates in Illinois that the unemployment rate is about 8.2 percent, whereas in New Jersey-and I'm just trying to figure out how to compare these-the unemployment rate is 3.9 percent. Is unemployment more than twice as much in Illinois than it is in New Jersey or is that just a comparison figure with the number of persons who are employable in New Jersey? Mrs. NORWOOD. Unemployment, according to those figures, is higher in Illinois than in New Jersey and I would expect it to be higher in Illinois than in New Jersey because of the industrial structure of the economy in Illinois. I would point out to you that there are larger errors surrounding-or wider confidence band surrounding-the data for each of the States. You will note that Texas had an increase in unemployment and that many of the others seem to be relatively stable, going up or down a little bit, within the band of statistical confidence. I think what we are seeing is a fairly widespread drop in unemployment, which is not concentrated in any particular place, but there are marked differences by locality in this country and, as I've said many times here, I believe that they are getting larger in some ways, that the industrial restructuring that's occurring in this country should make us pay a great deal more attention than we have in the past to differences in geography. Representative WYLIE. Okay. Well, I'm especially interested in my own home State of Ohio and I noticed that the unemployment rate has dropped by three-tenths of a percentage point, which is a pretty healthy drop I guess. I wouldn't expect you to know from a statistical standpoint what happened in all the 50 States, but can you tell me how that decline is reflected in Ohio? Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, in Ohio, there has been a sizable drop in unemployment over the last year. The drop in unemployment this month is within the bound of statistical error, so it probably is not very much of a change. There has been some increase in employment and a relatively small increase in the labor force in Ohio. So things look fairly opti- mistic. Representative WYLIE. Okay. I was taken with your statement where you say that many product areas are heavily influenced by imports and had substantial annual rates of increase in the first quarter. For example, wine, apparel, and jewelry. Is there any linking with imports that can explain this? Mrs. NORWOOD. It's very hard to link product by product. In our micro data and data that are on import prices, all that we have been able to do is to pick out some commodity areas that clearly are known to be very much affected by imports in which a large part of domestic sales are imports, and look at what has happened to their prices. And that's really essentially what we were doing. 391 One must be careful, too, to look not just at the prices of imported commodities in this country, but also at domestically produced commodities that compete with imports. As prices of imports go up, there is more of an opportunity for domestic manufacturers to consider what they will do with their price levels and still remain competitive. So we can expect a variety of things to go on there. But it is an extremely hazardous place to do a lot of analysis at this point. We are beginning to see some effects and I thought it was important to point that out. Representative WYLIE. I'm not sure that I got the full import of that, but you say that domestic producers are raising their prices vis-a-vis some of these products? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. I'm saying there are two effects that we can expect to see. One is that as the value of the dollar falls, the prices of a product imported from another country, particularly from Japan and some other countries whose currencies are affected by the value of the dollar, would go up. That's the price of the imported product itself. The other side of that is to look at the competitive situation that a domestic manufacturer finds himself in, and if he finds that his competitors have higher prices, then he has more of an opportunity to consider where he is going to put his prices and has an opportunity to decide whether he wants to try to go out to get more of the market share or whether he wants to increase his own profit margins. Those are decisions which individual businessmen will be making as we go through the next several months. Representative WYLIE. It could have an impact on employment? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. Representative WYLIE. Well, one other observation I would like to make then is that this kind of places us in the horns of a dilem- ma. We hear all the talk about our trade imbalance, $170 billion deficit, and we need to do something about that, but here is a statistic which indicates that maybe in some areas at least imports are creating American jobs. Mrs. NORWOOD. Oh, yes. Imports are not always a source of job decline. It seems to me that we are getting into a much better position to really position ourselves to increase our share of export markets. That's what's really needed if we're going to keep the employment levels in manufacturing rising. Representative WYLIE. What are the fastest growing occupational categories over the last 12 months? Mrs. NORWOOD. Well, they have generally been the professional, technical and management occupations. Representative WYLIE. Are the jobs generally in the poor-paying sectors? We hear that they are. Mrs. NORWOOD. The jobs tend to be in the occupations which in the past have paid more. They are spread out among industries. Certainly one of the fastest growing industries has been what we call eating and drinking places, otherwise known as restaurants, and many of those are rather low-paying jobs clearly. But there are many others in the service-producing sector that are high-paying jobs. 392 Representative WYUE. Thank you. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Senator SARBANES. Commissioner, thank you very much. We appreciate your testimony and we appreciate your colleagues accompanying you and we look forward to seeing you next month. Mrs. NORWOOD. Thank you. Senator SARBANES. The committee stands adjourned. [Whereupon, at 10:05 a.m., the committee adjourned, subject to the call of the Chair.] EMPLOYMENT-UNEMPLOYMENT

FRIDAY, JUNE 5, 1987

CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES, JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE, Washington, DC. The committee met, pursuant to notice, at 9:30 a.m., in room SD- 628, Dirksen Senate Office Building, Hon. William Proxmire (member of the committee) presiding. Present: Senator Proxmire. Also present: Judith Davison, executive director; and William R. Buechner and Christopher J. Frenze, professional staff members. OPENING STATEMENT OF SENATOR PROXMIRE, PRESIDING Senator PROXMIRE. The hearing will come to order. On behalf of the members of the Joint Economic Committee, I would like to welcome Commissioner Janet Norwood before the committee this morning to testify on the employment and unemployment figures for May 1987. Today the Bureau of Labor Statistics is releasing revised payroll employment data that show slower job growth during the past 2 years than was originally reported. These figures will give us a much better picture of how the economy has been performing during the past 2 years and may clear up the inconsistency that many have seen between the slow growth reported in the GNP figures and the strong job growth reported by BLS. I hope Commis- sioner Norwood will discuss this in her prepared statement, but if not, it can be addressed during the question period. The unemployment figures for May show no change from April. The only major changes occurred for blacks, whose unemployment rate returned to the March level after a significant decline in April, and for Hispanics, where the unemployment rate declined to 8.7 percent. The labor force and household employment rose by more than 600,000 in May after seasonal adjustment, both much larger than normal. By contrast, payroll employment rose only 123,000, all in the service-producing sectors. Weekly hours were up, with large increases in manufacturing. Representative McMillan is unable to attend today's hearing and has requested that his opening statement be included; which I will do at this point, without objection. [The written opening statement of Representative McMillan follows:]

(393) 394

WRITTEN OPENING STATEMENT OF REPRESENTATIVE MCMILLAN It gives me great pleasure to welcome Commissioner Norwood here this morning. This morning Commissioner Norwood once again brings us very good news. April's plunge in the civilian unemployment rate has been sustained, and its level stands at 6.3 percent. This is the lowest rate of unemployment since March 1980. During May employment gains were also impressive, with the household survey posting an increase of 600,000. Even if this may be somewhat overstated, the strong employment performance indicates economic strength. The recent employment data certainly do not support those who constantly voice pessimism about the economic outlook. Another encouraging sign is the rise in the employment-population ratio, an important measure of our economy's ability to create enough jobs. The May increase brings the level of the E-P ratio up to 61.6 percent, an alltime record high. With this expansion now entering its 55th month, it is already the second longest peacetime recovery since World War II. During this upswing over 13 million jobs have been created. With economic growth continuing, we may look forward to solid employment gains in the months to come. This will provide expanded opportunities for all of our citizens, especially the less fortunate. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Senator PROXMIRE. The committee will now turn to Commission- er Norwood for her analysis of the employment and unemployment data for May.

STATEMENT OF HON. JANET L. NORWOOD, COMMISSIONER, BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR, AC- COMPANIED BY THOMAS J. PLEWES, ASSOCIATE COMMISSION- ER, OFFICE OF EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT STATIS- TICS; AND KENNETH V. DALTON, ASSOCIATE COMMISSIONER, OFFICE OF PRICES AND LIVING CONDITIONS Mrs. NORWOOD. Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman. It is always a pleasure to be here. The labor market improvements of recent months held in May. Increases occurred both in the labor force and in employment, while the number of unemployed persons in May was the same as in April. Both the overall jobless rate and the civilian rate-at 6.2 and 6.3 percent, respectively-were unchanged. Both rates were about 1 percentage point lower than a year ago. May 1987 marks the 4V2 year point in the current economic expansion. The civilian worker jobless rate has fallen during this period, but the pace of the decline has varied. The rate fell steeply during the first 2 years of the recovery, dropping by 3.6 percentage points from its high of 10.8 percent in November 1982. As usually occurs during the course of a recovery, the decline then slowed down; from November 1984 to November 1986, the unemployment rate edged down only three-tenths of a point-to 6.9 percent. Over the last 6 months, however, the pace of decline in unemployment picked up, with the rate dropping by 0.6 point since November of last year. Most of this recent decrease has occurred among adults, both men and women. The jobless rate for teenagers-at 17.7 percent in May-has shown little improvement in the last 6 months. Over this same period the rate for whites fell, but that for blacks has displayed no clear pattern. Joblessness among persons of Hispanic origin has dropped. In May their rate was below 9 percent for the first time since early 1980. Total civilian employment, as measured by the household survey, showed an unusually large increase in May-about 600,000-and 395 the labor force rose by about the same amount. A large part of the increase occurred among adult women. Even though employment normally increases strongly between April and May as outdoor activity picks up and young people enter the labor market, the size of the April-to-May change is probably somewhat exaggerated. Payroll employment, as measured by the business survey, rose by only 125,000 in May. This change, however, followed much larger job gains during the first 4 months of this year. All of the May increase occurred in the service-producing sector. The services industry itself continued to expand, adding about 100,000 jobs, and the finance, insurance, and real estate industry also continued its long- term job gain. As has been the case for several months, factory employment was unchanged over the month. However, the factory work week rebounded strongly in May from the holiday-induced April decline. Overtime in manufacturing rose simply, to 3.8 hours, the highest level since the spring of 1978. I want to call your attention to the fact that these data from our business survey reflect the usual benchmark adjustment as well as updated seasonal factors. BLS practice each year is to adjust the establishment survey estimates to the comprehensive employment counts from the unemployment insurance tax records for the preceding year. The revisions this year were larger than usual; they have brought the trend in the payroll survey estimates closer to that of the household survey. The current levels of payroll employment have been reduced by about 700,000, or by 0.7 percent. The largest revisions downward were in manufacturing and in wholesale and retail trade. In summary, the data released this morning corroborate the labor market improvements of the last few months. The April jobless rate drop was sustained in May and employment in the service-producing sector continued to increase. Mr. Chairman, my colleagues, Mr. Dalton and Mr. Plewes, and I will try to answer any questions. [The table attached to Mrs. Norwood's statement, together with the Employment Situation press release, follows:]

79-018 0 - 88 - 14 Unemployment rates of all civilian workers by alternative seasonal adjustment methods

X-11 ARIMA method X-11 method Month Unad- Concurrent (official Range and justed Official (as first Concurrent Stable Total Residual method (cols. year rate procedure computed) (revised) ______before 1980) 2-8) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

1986

May ...... 7.0 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 - June ...... 7.3 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 _ July ...... 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 6.9 7.0 7.0 .1 August ...... 6.7 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.9 7.0 6.8 .2 September .. 6.8 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 - October ..... 6.6 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.0 6.9 6.9 7.0 .1 November.... 6.6 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.0 .1 December.... 6.3 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.7 .1

1987

January ..... 7.3 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.7 .2 February.... 7.2 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.5 6.7 .2 March ...... 6.9 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.6 .1 April ...... 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.3 .1 May ...... 6.1 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.3 6.4 6.3 .1

SOURCE: U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Bureau of Labor Statistics June 1987 397

(1) Unadjusted rare. Unemployment rate for all clvilian woriters. noc seasonally adjusted.

(2) Official procedure (X-ll ARLMAmethod). The published seasonally adjusted rate for all civilian wrkers. Each of che 3 major civilIam labor force componeots-agricultural employment nonagrlculcural employment and unemploymemt-for 4 age-sex groups-males and females, ages 16-19 and 20 years and over-are seasonally adjusted Independently using data from January 1975 forward. The data series for each of these 12 components are extended by a year at each end of the origlnal series using ARLMA(Auto-Regressive. Integrated. Moving Average) models chosen specifically for each series. Each extended series Is then seasonally adjusted with the X-ll portion of the X-1l ARIMAprogram. The 4 teenage unemployment and nonagricultural employment components are adjusted with the additive adjustment model. while the other components are adjusted with the multiplicative model. The unemployment rate Is computed by suning the 4 seasonally adjusted unenploynent components and calculating that total as a percent of the civilian labor force total derived by summing all 12 seasonally adjusted components. All the seasonally adjusted series are revised at the end of each year. Extrapolated factors for January-June are computed at the beginning of each year; extrapolated factors for July-December are computed In the middle of the year after the June data become available. Each set of 6-month factors are published In advance, In the January and July issues. respectively, of Employment and Earnings.

(3) Concurrent (as first computed, CX-ll ARIMAmethod). The official procedure for computation or the rate or * civil~an worlers using the 12 components Is followed except that extrapolated factors are not used at all. Each component Is seasonally adjusted Wth the X-1l ARLMAprogras each month as the most recent data become avallable. Rates for each month of the current year are shown as fIrst computed; they are revised only onre each year, at the end of the year when data for the full year become available. For example. the rate for January 1985 would be hosed, during 1985, on the adjustment of data from the period January 1975 through January 1985.

(4) Concurrent (revised. X-1l ARIMA ethod). The procedure used Is Identical to (3) above, and the rate for the current nooth (the last sonth dIsplayed) will *Iways be the some in the two columns. Rowever, all previous sonths are subject co revision each month based on the seasonal adjustment of all the components with data through the current monch.

(5) Stable (X-ll ARIMAmethod). Each of the 12 civilian labor force components I extended using ARIMAmodels as In the official procedure and then run through the X-Il part of he program using the stable option. This option assuwes that seasonal patterns are basically constant from year-to-year and computes final seasonal factors as unweighted averages of all the seasonal-irregular components for each month across the entire span of the period adjusted. As In the official procedure, factors are extrapolated In 6-month Intervals and the series are revised at"the end of each year. The procedure for computation of the rate from the seasonally adjusted components Is also Identical to the official procedure.

(6) Total (X-lI AREtA method). This Is one alternative aggregation procedure, in which cotal unemployment and civilian labor force levels are extended with ARIMA sodels and directly adjusted with multiplIcative adjustment models In the X--l part of the program. The rate Is computed by taking seasonally adjusted total unemployment as a percent of seasonally adjusted total civilian labor force. Factors are extrapolated In 6-month Intervals and the series revised at the end of each year.

(7) Residual (X-11 ARLEAmethod). This Is another alternative aggregarion method, In which total civilian eaployment and civil an labor force levels are extended using ARIMA sodels and then directly adjusted with multiplinative adjustment models. The seasonally adjusted unemployment level Is derived by subtracting seasonally adjusted employment from seasonally adjusted labor force. The rate Is then computed by taking the derived unemployment level as a percenc of the labor force level. Factors are extrapolated In 6-aomth Intervals and the series revised at the end of each year.

(X) I-Il method (official method before 1980). The method for computation of the official procedure Is used except that the series are not extended with ARItA models and the 'actors are projected in 12-month intervals. The standard X-Il progrom is used to perform the seasonal adjustment.

Methods of Adjustment: The X-1l ARIMA method was developed at Statistics Canada by the Seasonal Adjustment and Times Series Staff under the direction of Estela Bee Dagun. The method Is described In The X-11 ARIMA Seasonal Adjustment Method, by Estela lee Dagum. Statistics Canada Catalogue No. i2-564E, sebruary 1980.

The standard X-11 method Is described In X-l1 Variant of tbe Ceosus EIItIhd Seasonal Adjustment program, by Julius Shiskin Allan Young and Jon Muagrave (T chnical Paper No. 15. Bureau of the Census. 1967). 398

KtA A W%. United States NMews Department 0of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics Washington, D.C. 20212

Technical information: (202) 523-1371 USDL 87-423 523-1944 523-1959 TRANSMISSION OF MATERIAL IN THIS Media contact: 523-1913 RELEASE IS EMBARGOEDUNTIL 8:30 A.M. (EDT), FRIDAY, JUNE 5, 1987

THE EMPLOYMENTSITUATION: MAY 1987

the Employment rose in May and the unemployment rate was unchanged, Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. remained Following a marked decline in April, the overall unemployment rate Both were at 6.2 percent and the civilian worker rate at 6.3 percent. nearly a percentage point lower than a year earlier. of Total civilian employment--as estimated through the monthly survey adjusted, households-showed an increase of about 600,000, seasonally monthly whereas nonagricultural payroll employment-as measured by the survey of establishments-rose by 125,000.

Unemployment (Household Survey Data)

The civilian unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.3 percent in May, 800,000 and the number of persons unemployed remained at 7.5 million, about (5.5 less than a year earlier. The unemployment rates for adult men have percent) and women (5.4 percent), while unchanged over the month, for dropped substantially during the last year. The unemployment rates teenagers (17.7 percent), whites (5.3 percent), and Hispanics (8.7 percent) percentage were little changed, although the Hispanic rate has fallen 2 percent) points so far this year. The jobless rate for blacks (13.8 A-2 and returned to its March level after falling in April. (See tables A-3.)

Among the unemployed, there was a small increase in May in the number seeking their first jobs. In terms of duration, there was also a small The increase in the number of persons unemployed ror less than 5 weeks. A-7 and median duration of unemployment declined to 6.5 weeks. (See tables A-B.)

Civilian Employment and the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)

Civilian employment rose to 112.4 million,- a seasonally adjusted gain of about 600,000. Most of the increase was among adults, particularly age women. The employment-population ratio--the proportion of the working point. population who held jobs-increased by three-tenths of a percentage (See table A-2.) 399

The civilian labor force also showed a sharp increase (660,000), following 2 months of little change. The labor force participation rate was up three-tenths of a percentage point to 65.7 percent.

Table A. Major indicators of labor market activity, seasonally adjusted

quarterly Monthly data averages _ Category Apr.- 1986 1987 1987 May l | ~~~~~~~~change IV I I Mar. Apr. May ------p HOUSBKULU UAIA I ae nno ann

Labor force 1/...... 120,308 120,943 120,958 121,070 121,719 649 Total employment 1/.. 112,170 112,995 113,104 113,570 114,173 603 Civilian labor force... 118,558 119,202 119,222 119,335 119,993 658 Civilian employment.. 110,420 111,254 111,368 111,835 112,447 612 Unemployment ...... 8,138 7,948 7,854 7,500 7,546 46 Not in labor force..... 62,807 62,800 62,957 63,009 62,540 -469 Discouraged workers.. 1,127 1,168 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.

Percent of labor force Unemployment rates: All workers 1/. /. 6.8 6.6 6.5 6.2 6.2 0 All civilian workers. 6.9 6.7 6.6 6.3 6.3 0 Adult men...... 6.1 5.9 5.8 5.5 5.5 0 Adult women...... 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.5 5.4 -0.1 Teenagers...... 17.8 17.9 18.1 17.4 17.7 .3 White. 6.0 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.3 -.1 Black...... 14.1 14.2 13.9 13.0 13.8 .8 Hispanic origin.... 10.2 9 9. 9.0 9.2 8.7 -.5

ESTABLISHMENT DATA2/ Thousands of jobs .100I,37 ATI11,1 I I A1,JLV pl

Hours of work Average weekly hours: 3 4 7 3 4 8 1 34.7 34.8 34.8 p . p . pO. Total private...... 4 4 Manufacturing...... 40.8 41.0 40.9 p4l0.6 p l.0 p. 3 5 Overtime...... 3.5 3.6 3.6 p . p3.8 p.3 _ I/ Includes the resident Armed Forces. N.A.-not available. 2/ Establishment data have been revised to reflect March 1986 benchmarks and updated seasonal adjustment factors. p-preliminary. 400

Industry Payroll Employment (Establishment Survey Data)

The data from the establishment survey showed a relatively small job gain for May, bringing nonagricultural payroll employment to a level of 101.7 million, after seasonal adjustment. This level reflects the results of the annual benchmark adjustment of these data, which has produced a downward revision. (See the explanatory note on pages 4-5 for a description of the benchmark process.)

Gains in May were essentially limited to the services industry and in finance, insurance, and real estate. Continuing the strong growth in evidence during the current expansion, employment in the services industry rose by 95,000 in May. About half of the increase was in business and health services. Finance, insurance, and real estate also continued to expand with an over-the-month employment gain of 15,000. Employment in both wholesale and retail trade was unchanged after seasonal adjustment. (See table B-i.)

In the goods-producing sector, construction employment rose a little less than expected for this time of the year and, after seasonal adjustment, was down slightly from the April level. Mining and its oil and gas extraction component have shown small increases over the last few months. Manufacturing employment remained unchanged in May, as movements among individual industries were small and generally offsetting.

Weekly Hours (Establishment Survey Data)

The average workweek of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls edged up 0.1 hour to 34.8 hours, seasonally adjusted, returning to the March level. In manufacturing, the workweek rose by 0.4 hour to 41.0, rebounding from the previous month's dip, which had stemmed from religious observances in the reference week. Factory overtime rose by 0.3 hour to 3.8, the highest level since April 1978. (See table B-2.)

Largely as a result of the increase in hours of work, the index of aggregate weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls rose by 0.4 percent to 120.1 (1977-100), seasonally adjusted. This was 2.5 percent higher than the May 1986 index. (See table B-5.)

Hourly and Weekly Earnings (Establishment Survey Data)

Average hourly earnings rose by 0.4 percent in May, while average weekly earnings rose 0.7 percent, seasonally adjusted. Prior to seasonal adjustment, hourly earnings increased by 2 cents to $8.92, and weekly earnings were up $2.48 to $310.42. (See table B-3.)

The Hourly Earnings Index (Establishment Survey Data)

The Hourly Earnings Index (HEI) was 172.6 (1977=100) in May, seasonally adjusted, essentially unchanged from April. For the 12 months ended in May, the increase was 2.2 percent. The HEI excludes the effects of two types of changes unrelated to underlying wage rate movements-fluctuations in manufacturing overtime and interindustry 401

employment shifts. In dollars of constant purchasing power, the HEI decreased 1.3 percent during the 12-month period ended in April. (See table B-4.)

Revisions in the Establishment Survey Data

In accordance with annual practice, the establishment survey data published in this release have been revised to reflect complete counts of employment (benchmarks). The counts are principally derived from unemployment insurance tax records for the first quarter of 1986. In addition, new seasonal adjustment factors have been calculated to take account of the experience through March 1987.

The effects of these adjustments on current data are shown in table B, which presents data prior to seasonal adjustment for February 1987, the last month of final published estimates prior to this benchmark revision.

To reflect these changes, establishment data series have been revised from April 1985 forward, and seasonally adjusted series have been revised back to January 1982. The June 1987 issue of Employment and Earnings will contain a discussion of the effects of the benchmark, seasonal adjustment factors for use in the ensuing 12-month period, and revised data for all regularly published tables containing national establishment survey data on employment, hours, and earnings. All of the revised historical series will be published in a special supplement to Employment and Earnings, which is expected to be issued in about a month. This supplement, when combined with the historical volume, Employment, Hours, and Earnings, United States, 1909-84, Bulletin 1312-12, will comprise the full historical series on national data from the establishment survey.

The Employment Situation for June 1987 will be released on Thursday, July 2, at 8:30 A.M. (EDT). 402

Table B. Establishment survey employment estimates for February 1987, not seaso ly adjusted

(In thousands)

February 1987 employment estimates Industry Difference

As Before revised revision

Total nonfarm employment ...... 99,792 100,494 -702

Total private ...... 82,587 83,316 -729 Mining ...... 713 723 -10 Construction ...... 4,506 4,559 -53 Manufacturing ...... 18,853 19,061 -208 Transportation and public utilities ...... 5,252 5,321 -69 Wholesale trade ...... 5,707 5,827 -120 Retail trade ...... 17,644 17,872 -228 Finance, insurance, and real estate ...... 6,438 6,462 -24 Services ...... 23,474 23,491 -17

Government ...... 17,205 17,178 27 Federal ...... 2,897 2,897 - State ...... 4,020 4,072 -52 Local .1 12888...... 10,209 79 403

Explanatory Note

This news release presents statistics from two major surveys, that time; and they made specific efforts to find employment the Current Population Survey (household survey) and the sometime during the prior 4 weeks. Persons laid off from their Current Employment Statistics Survey (establishment survey). former jobs and awaiting recall and those expecting to report The household survey provides the information on the labor to a job within 30 days need not be looking for work to be force, total employment, and unemployment that appears in counted as unemployed. the A tables, marked HOUSEHOLD DATA. It is a sample The labo-fome equalsthe sum of the number employed and surveyof about 59,500 households that is conducted by the the number unemployed. The anemploymenr rate is the Bureau of the Census with most of the findings analyzed and percentage of unemployed people in the labor force (civilian published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (sBas. plus the resident Armed Forces). Table A-5 presents a special The establishment survey provides the information on the grouping of seven measures of unemployment based on vary- employment, hours, and earnings of workers on ing definitions of unemployment and the labor force. The nonagricultural payrolls that appears in the B tables, marked definitions are provided in the table. The moss restrictive ESTABLISHMENT DATA. This information is collected definition yields U-I and the most comprehensive yields U-7. from payroll records by BLSin cooperation with State agencies. The overall unemployment rate is U-5a, while U-5b represents The sample includes over 290.05Westablishments employing the same measure with a civilian labor force base. over 38 million people. Unlike the household survey, the establishment survey only For both surveys, the data for a given month are actually counts wage and salary employees whose names appear on the collected for and relate to a particular week. In the household payroll records of nonagricaltural firms. As a result, there are survey, unless otherwise indicated, it is the calendar week that many differences between the two surveys, among which are contains the I2th day of the month, which is called the survey the following; week. In the establishment survey, the reference week is the - Thehoushod ervey,ahohgh bhaed on a ertr .awek. fLeussa pay period including the 12th,which may or may not corres- irsu rwestalor thewpopotioo: the .abhmhmoetsrve rdae aarmhrde. pond directly to the calendar week. the olteroyrd. ucraid avdv siy-otho. pri-e hosehod worrkosod The data in this release are affected by a number of technical wenb- of th o-ide.i Anoed Fore: factors, including deftnitions, survey differences, seasonal ad- - The housholdsuroeI inctuds people us orraid lrate amora the justments, and the inevitable variance in results between a wpbyolod:th esihbthhmi serverdoes -r: surveyof a sample and a census of the entire population. Each - Thehoushold .oy a hwisEdorh 16 ye or suead a.des:the of these factors is explained below. enahbttoimivery ao tholieihd byear: Coverage, definitlons, and dlffranens - the houshold-uey hs no duprctnoreor itdvidob. bw -sehis- between surveys diodt iaminted anly oro; iatheestbtihm sey orv.rpbyt s aorktiat we th.r onrjob or heesir vpsps on mowthan oae proot semUdbe The sample households in the household survey are selected -Wotedovoory f. eachppI . so as to reflect the entire civilian noninstitutional population 16 years of age and older Each person in a household is Other differences between the two surveys are described in classified as employed, unemployed, or not in the labor force. "Comparing Employment Estimatesfrom Household and Those who hold more than one job are classified according to Payroll Surveys," which may be obtained from the BLSupon the job at which they worked the most hours. request. People are classified as employed if they did amywork at all as paid civilians; worked in their own business or profession or Seasonal adjustment on their own farm: or worked 15 hours or more in an enter- Over the course of a year, the size of the Nation's labor prise operated by a member of their family, whether they were force and the levels of employment and unemployment paid or not. People are also counted as employed if they were undergo sharp fluctuations due to such seasonal events as on unpaid leave because of illness, bad weather, disputes be- changes in weather, reduced or expanded production, har- tween labor and management, or personal reasons. Members vests, major holidays, and the opening and closing of schools. of the Armed Forces stationed in the United States ace also in- For example, the labor force increases by a large number each cluded in the employed total. June, when schools close and many young people enterthe job People are classified as unemployed,regardless of their market. The effect of such seasonal variation ca be very eligibility for unemployment benefits or public assitance, if large;over the course of a year, for example, seasonality may they meet all of the following criteria: They had no employ- account for as much as 95 percent of the month-to-month ment during the survey week; they were available for work at changes in unemployment. 404

Because these seasonal events follow a more or less regular from the results of a complete census. The chances are approx- pattern each year, their influence on statistical trends cam be imately 90 out of 100that an estimate based on the sample will eliminated by adjusting the statistics from month to month. differ by no more than 1.6 times the standard error from she These adjustments make nonseasonal developments, such as results of a complete census. At approximately the 90-percent declines in economic activity or increases in the participation level of confidence-the confidence limits used by aLSin its of women in the labor force, easier to spot. To return to the analyses-the error for the monthly change in total employ- school's-out example, the large number of people entering the ment is on the order of plus or minus 328,000, for total labor force each June is likely to obscure any other changes unemployment it is 220,000; and, for the overall unemploy- that have taken place since May, making it difficult to deter- ment rate, it is 0.19 percentage point. These figures do not mine if the level of economic activity has risenor declined. mean that the sample results are off by these magnitudes but, However, because the effect of students finishing school us rather, that the chances are approximately 90 out of 100 that previous yeawsis known. the statistics for the current year can the "true" level or rate would not be expected to differ from be adjusted to allow for a comparable change. Insofar as the the estimates by more than these amounts. seasonal adjustment is made correctly, the adjusted figure pro- Sampling errors for monthly surveys are reduced when the vides a more useful tool with which to analyze changes in data are cumulated for several months, such as quarterly or economic activity. annually. Also, as a general rule, the smaller theestimate, the Measures of labor force, employment, and unemployment larger the sampling error. Therefore, relatively speaking, the contain components such as age and sex. Statistics for all estimate of the size of the labor force is subject to less error employees, production workers, average weekly hours, and than is the estimate of the number unemployed. And, among average hourly earnings include components based on the the unemployed, the sampling error for the jobless rate of employer's industry. All these statistics can be seasonally ad- adult men, for example, is much smaller than is the error for justed either by adjusting the total or by adjusting each of the the jobless rate of teenagers. Specifically, the error on monthly components and combining them. The second procedure change in the jobless rate for men is .26 percentage point; for usually yields more accurate information and is therefore teenagers, it is 1.25percentage points. followed by aLS.For example, the seasonally adjusted figure In the establishment survey, estimates for the 2 most current for the labor force is the sum of eight seasonally adjusted months are based on incomplete returns; for this reason, these civilian employment components, plus the resident Armed estimates are labeled preliminary in the tables. When all the Forces total (not adjusted for seasonality. and four seasonally returns in the sample have been received, the estimates are adjusted unemployment components; the total for unemploy- revised. In other words, data for the month of September are ment is the sum of the four unemployment components; and published in preliminary form in October and November and the overall unemployment rate is derived by dividing the in final form in December. To remove errors that build up resulting estimate of total unemployment by the estimate of over time, a comprehensive count of the employed is con- the labor force. ducted each year. The results of this survey are used to The numerical factors used to make the seasonal ad- establish new benchmarks-comprehensive counts of justments are recalculated regularly. For the household employment-against which month-to-month changes can be survey, the factors ace calculated for the January-June period measured. The new benchmarks also incorporate changes in and again for the July-December period. The January revision the classification of industries and allow for the formation of isapplied to data that have been published over the previous 5 new establishments. years. For the establishment survey, updated factors for seasonal adjustment are calculated only once a year, along wthbthe introduction of new benchmarks which are discussed Additional statistics and other Information at the end of the next section. In order to provide a broad view of the Nation's employment situation, BLsregularly publishes a wide variety of data in this news release. More comprehensive statistics are contain- Sampling variability ed in Employmentand Earnings,published each month by Statistics based on the household and establishment surveys BLS.I is available for$8.50 per issue or522.00per year from are subject to sampling error, that is, the estimate of the the U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C.. number of people employed and the other estimates drawn 20204. A check or money order made out to the Superinten- from these surveys probably differ from the figures that would dent of Documents must accompany all orders. be obtained from a complete census, even if the same question- Employment and Earnings also provides approximations of naires and procedures were used. In the household survey, the the standard errors for the household survey data published in amount of the differences can be expressed in termsof stand- this release. For unemployment and other labor force ard errors. The numerical value of a standard error depends categories, the standard errors appear in tables Bthrough J of upon the size of the sample, the results of the survey, and other its "Explanatory Notes." Measures of the reliability of the factors. However, the numerical value is always such that the data drawn from the establishment survey and the actual chances are approximately 68 out of 100that an estimate based amounts of revision due to benchmark adjustments are pro- on the sample will differ by no more than the standard error vided in tables M, 0, P. and 0 of that publication. 405

HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA Tabl A-I. Epbyno oltus of tVe POPqoletlao.k ng Armed Forn hi the Unlte State by mi

Eses K.0wo--e8,-_ _ - __ oonsw_ _-

SO ] 110 388w7 1184 1507 1807 1887 1887 7807 9. 88 ...... 0 .. .. 30. AI o

_ 10*32n.I0038 181.888 184.875 184.3$ 30.5 18455 1-584738 183.815 185.878 184.25- 1 1.31 .884 128,002 121,421 118.273 128.782 121.00 120.-58 121.878 121.718 Prj~jlle' :45. 45.s2 45. - 5. 43. 05.9* 4 5. 45.8 40.1 8813808 .128 112.774 334.IOS II-.-C2 112.75- 113.122 338185138.I S78 114.173 t1-433~4.803 nl4I3 40.3 41. J 01.b ^ 1 48. 41.4 4. 5l 41.7 42.0 lnldF7302008 1 . 87 1,7J5 1.724 1.481 3.748 1.138 1.744 1.7J5 1.724 508a318810 101,841 111.041 112.J77 I--.1-S I11 .11 111.482 111.8 733.833aJ 112.437

= 873028753fl7*300' '' ' .4838103 1848150.4 387.4 388 24 10.8i - 3.4 2 01.112l5 lM..3770050 l.158 7.3J 7.81...7 8.0..23 7.8.. .4.7,834 7 5.0 7 48l-238.3W 4. - 4.1 0.8 7.1 *4 4. 0. 4.s2 4 2 NlOlefllwS .J 120*J 87 42,3 42.~3274 42,180 02,s44 42,857 4388 4o2.340

I08I5 _dpA7 03,355 88.273 80.8 7 01,35 8802288,018 00.384 88.271 $80.00 L*010k0 .721 04,880 4,73 4485sa 07.0327 417444*7.44447.--0343.8I- 10341850048.03 .~~~~~~~~~~~2474i27843.440| 42.2037 03.;383 743,85 03,232i 03.4743.sJ502 D74451nlW37034 77.5 73.2 72.0 71.J 73.0 77.8 73.0 73.8 73.8 I A0F30 .54SJ 3.575 3,300 I.5J5 3,8 3,I584 7,575 3,575 I.444 O70310o7812 - 48.328 43234s 42,14s 0.04 03751 43,5 03707 03.8424s1,88 I _7.3034 .50 4,3031 4,0784,05-SJ 5,485 5,32, 4,302 4,194 8,754 33494m8344 0.1ff 4.s2 4.8 7.0 4.ss 0 3 .4 .s24*.3

_0.381.3 p3.883 85,0 85,8 8500k 8 5.4345,435 8-5.728 9108 B s83,8 l h 52' 1-5 53.095 58 483 52.020 53.7 S3.0JJ2 58.374 S3.307 54.103 71723 7030' 55. 45.4 84.8 55.0 55.0 55. 55.7 53.05 50.2 D _-3875-03*03f33 53.7 52.2 52. 57. 53.Sl 52.7 52.8 52.3 52.8 Pa7777873P53 754 708 3483 54 157 754 743 744700o O.38138- .3752 3880 30.54203 40,583*748,473 4843 38043 35,813 50.457 3U844484 .488 4,724 J.240| 0707 3,0 8,58 8,59-2 3,4743, 282 43W383315S7304 7,1 5. 0.0 7.2 4.7 4. 4. *24. 4.1 _...... _ _ _ 350 884341 030 80w. ... o2M0 0000*4041 8 sol 8o87 4 *73080 -437.38 8. r4.4 n-7- 40 o -l 0 - Fl080 406

HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA Table A bmploymentE status o the clvilan population by sw and age

E.O~~-..~ - --- a -0- I 8--s, .-*~ 3 3svs.68- S~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~nus. - ins.s~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~d 1~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~4 -Tr 7 S~~~~~ S' ,i O JI 8jI FJIs, Isj.oj.-- -''i - - jTh

4141ni371nnl1 2l07hl p . . .1 ...... 80.31. 182. 344 1 5 5 1 60.311 1 1.62 7 1 81 ,86 32. 178 132.344 182.

E ...... 10 3.841 111.54 112. 377 1 . 8 1. I. 3 ll.8 12.347 E 1 33w...... 1.0 .... 40.5.45.8 41.4...... 8. 1.1 41.2 41.1 41.3 41.4 .363117....1 . 8.1. 7,30. 7.31 3,422 8..23 7,347 7.85 7.500 7.5-- 14U01713317 5...... 2 . 7.2 4.7 4.7 4. . . em.22n, sd S-m

14414n733l3111us4141131031...... 78,387 73.37 73.474 7 .333 79.132 7 .214 73.353 73.37 73.474 4441n71530317s ...... 333 41,37442.154 r..3010.118013... 7 . 7 7 7 2 8 8 . 7 . 72...... 7 3. 73. 2 071001782 . 37...... 317 55 ,721 E .3 l .837 ...... 7 3.2 73.3 7 3.5 7 3.1 7 5.4 7 3.4 7 .7 73.8 73.3 . - ...... 2.373 2.337 2..48 2.273 2,254 2.353 2.4 2.4 1 2.4

....m...... - - 51211571,031173174115173...... 1 87. 68.4 37.355.0 8.287 352 35.33558.4 131 n...... 5 37 43. 344 .2 5 34...... 4.. , 3 3 5 4 7 4

.om4l5II32407 ...... 144 44,440 7n. 2 .. 3 32.2 37.2 4 1 .0 ,33...... 73 2 ,837 2.7 1I 2 ,430 1 ...... 4.7 3.2 3.3 4.4 3.3 3.8 . . .4

41s3~non o...... 14.483 14.342 14.3 14.4 I 3 10.344 13.535 14.342 14595 4131 0 7.74.7 3 3 3 2 7 .34.7 324 3...... 5..287 . 3 7.8 34 5.0 4 131d...... 2 El ...o 4113 4.34 .4.238 ;32 .324 ;; 4.3824 4I.340 4.3 8 4.433

3 ...... 4 40 3 2 0 4 2 3. 4. 3. 4 . 4 . 4... N o el-lqwlmllo II...... 175 4,224 4.372 U1n314 el.S3...... 46 1.224 7.378 1,305 1.4 2 1.344 1.424 1,374 I .430 375171017373n7,1 ...... 13.7 14.7 17.4 13.8 17.7 18.8 . 15.1 17.5 17.7 *7503151308 ., lInt.s- . s,0 ssfson t .lo 71 In'5335 . .1V177flI -. 7.15S. 317- sMl 3o10o30n ooo4s -413f68W1 IS. 43n i .i610 On ,o Iyd338 .3053r . . 407

TableA.& Emplymnt eb= oates cIvilian pepubltion by nre, ee, age.and Htipsnic orign

_ - _~~~~~~~Foe7___ ht I '0's | __ II_N| si |' 573 _IFob - 3|7 f __IIi;~ . I i sl|

C~402330 6...... 333305.23' 350.33350.5 05.053 35605 36.3s' "I3, 43b03873003307 101.202 302.03- 330.273 303.50330t2,76030-2.306302.73730.03433.5 7w73ospo330733 65.2 63.2 05.3 05.4 05 .70535457 £stsw6s.1se

. ..0 ...... 0 3 . 6 34 . 23...... 302. 0.3 2.5 6k3n7i0 0.0 5.4235 5.3032 0.;243 0.323 3.35 s.73 5.5- s5,2

03.333300,335 53.037 53.070 50.202 53,532 50.332 50.375 50.337 5.05 54s.310 73230308330333 70.3 73.3 70.0 70.0 70. 70.0 573.0 735.0s 70.0s 5. 5.0 5.7 .0 .. 5...... 2553 0 50 2 5.27 5.02 5 2.5 33333730=0782 .. 2...... 5. 5.2 5.3 4.0 4.7 E.0m733330307370333. 5.2 5.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 o ...... 5. W 4.0 5.0...... 5.0 54.3 5 2 5 2 5.3 5.5 52.7 42.3 53.2 57~10673333.907301063 5.7 52.3 53. 53.05 52.0s l 52.0. . * s . .n ...... ~s . U7837.01007.2...... 2 .3 33 0 3,0 3 2.333. 2,023 3. 3 .7 3

03_338730-303n0 .700i 0.037 0.300,00' 335 0,3ss.55 0.002 0.30 7.2 .5 57 5.7 PE ... 504 5075...... 7.253.3 5 7 5 4.3 5.733 3.0 5.3 5 s .735 5,037 5.5 E530 .7.05...... 03.0 E.w0l7 00 3 0 .0. 3.50...... 2 43.5 00.0 00.3 U0 ...... 024 3.70; S 30. 35.2 0 .733ns3...... 5.2 3...... 0...

...... 5 t s . II.s 5s s . s Er...... s.7s.Oz~as.5aw71~~s.s1~f~ s.2 3,303 2 2 2. 2 3 0 0 7 03...... 0...... 20,26 20.27 20. 2 2.300 r0 1.7 ...... 3 33 3533 3

53333307l3873000.....0...... 5....5 5. 54. 54.3 55.5 53.3 5.0 507 4

...... 5 5.350 0.053 5.4 30 032 57 5 r 058 . .n3.3 . 74.2.70.2 75.3 70.' 75.3.74...... 74.. 7...... 2i 5s 5523 .2 b ...... *2 s2 7 U ...... E m...... I...... 0...... 5.0 05.7 00.07o 03.475 64.77D 07- .0 s*s5 0.3 00.0 05.0

...... 32.0 33. 532.2 32.332.2 3 2.033 .5 30. 2.5

Cl 14r-hw5 ...... 0..3 5.332 5.333 5.37 5,30 0.030 5.387 5.03 5.370 .oooam'5.0 58.0 53.3 53.2 43.6 53. 53.0 50...7 43. .2 E ...... 5...... 2 2 5223 5.255 5.2 5.2 3 52.2 W r W . .. 533 2..5.0 537.2..5.2 537...... U ...... 730 650 037 700 763 775 770 000 63 008.73030333.33333033 32.7 3.3 33.032.73.2.0.12.33.0 33.5 3..0

...... 70...... 7 5 807 33372033733 53...... *.255.0 37.333.240o.332.060.033. 203.7

3332-3707.0383037625.2 Ž2.7 23 8 25.7 24.2 20.0 25.3 20.0 20.2i 52 ...... 2 27 55 7 5 52 3 303 5.3 3. 4. 3.8...... 7. . . E-n ...... 3. 56.3 38.0 30.5 30.5 38.6 00.5 33.5 30.0 wa ...... 3...... 0 5 .5 .2 5 .5 . . .

43lnM~aln.3333033307.2.3.7...... 2.230712.7703s2.00332.2303s2.6533t2.03232.732312,770 32,003 433038r03730...... 7,323 0.035 0.300 5,000s 0.003 3.07 0.332 0,060 8.530 n ns0-o ...... 65.3 05.3 00.4 05.3 06s.0 00.0 5.3 60.4 67.0 E.D7...... 030302...... 7.033 7.070 7.733 7,300 7.508 7.600 7.0037,703 7 3., E25003333.,3.fl7033000...... 57.7 00.3 00.0 58.3 53.0 60.2 60.0 00.3 63.2 Ud033303002 ...... 800 737 735 870 833 838 753 783 768 03330 330f I 30...... 58s.83.530a.33 X.03 s.0 3.0 3.2 8.7 7

17.038333083. lOd03.3rhowco.303 003 300 3* o 3 on.08200270o83 3.8030333- 3030333.3003 uo,3830 -330800837 803323303-303033 8033300 9-083.3073037820203030303.8-2 003008.3530- - 6-p308.3 338 736336 03.0008 37303038.338025028076833309- 408

HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA Table " Solsold Soisg b oile o

C _ 42.. 907 057 JO. 00. 0"5. 477. 09 1044 1747 l05 994I 1047 9047 9057gr I0 407

..0i 5: w.40.0 '.44 :::::::::::.99 :::: .04 70IO 59.874 4010 s0X e2.F§z7 44.20 v74 P0I9 . 24 .47 24.457 2Il..4 27.01. 27.024 27.07 2, 7.4 2 .57 24,4i

_ _ 7 _ t ~~~~~~~.445*ss11 1.444 9.400 1.0 9st|.447 1.700 1.009 1.400 __dn0.200 ...... 402 1.00 .7 * 70 1.41s .I'0s 1,442 I_10 0 .42 200 ' 174 9277 14 12 44 170 ' 970

-V ..... : ...... 8.4707..707 04 500. 05.047 D0. a 0.740 .0 10 .112 1 0s.404 _ n l 1.007 4.2744 .S010 164.00 14.a12 1 14,42.002 1.45 0*42.710

PdDhDV t 1,207 I20s 1.260 1.241 447 .204 1.2227 .24 4'.24 0, n 77.bl:o.2 01.0 02.00 50.45024 04 42,0 .012 42.s42I41 02.0s 0S4~i-7's~0 7.7072 .002 5.000 7.790 4,17422 457 0.200 5.1T7 .42 LS4IS~~~~~~~~fl0~~~~234 I70 245 205 244 24 20 4 7

...... 1 ...... 2.544I47 2.440 2.02 2.225 vok .. 2 . 2 . .:?:I.0.7222: ,400 22.744 2.440 V7...... 4,11 . 94.45 0,24,. 14,17 40.0514,.44 14,147 90.442 14.575

-I0woa.5 .404 4.700 4.0 5.54 5.0 5.457 0ws.144 5.1 5.0s20 wh ~~~~~~~~2.4042.002 2.015 2.440 2.21 2.040 2.244 2.157 2.074 V57 4 .4 . .9 2.4s20 2w~Ea.470 2.740 2.400 2.742 2.574 2.442 2.404 70471S7 tl 15.7 14.401 14.444 94.412 50.750 94.507 12.42 15,000e 94.4

~-~s07le=_- 5w _7 *44 as W-r _

TdbeA aseo nfsmst messa bae as suowo duboa U uoosgsmos uod l labr 1, -~~~~~ _

H..Wbw~~~o _wl 111 ______1 ______ie _ _0 _0 47_ 4-057 d__lacs ~~~~~~~~~~~~.0. ,.0...... 4.0 ...... 9.4 .9.0 1. X.79.7 1.4 W4b__dleb.2...... 70,.,,a~o.o 5.4. 0.5 3.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.9 0.0

455WI0W 0.5 4.5 5.4 S.4 4.9 0.9 4.4 4. U54 1_Sess_od _e o -. oo4 094 dI~~lb ...... , ~.7 4.5 4.4 4.0 4.0 4.0 0.0 4.0

__i0F_ ...... :t~~7. 7.0 4.5 4.0 4.4 4.5 4.2 4.2.

1e 7,_ ' m oo _ _ 7.9 7 s 4.7 4.0 4.7 4.4 4.0 4.0

_§_''. ~~~~~~~~~~~~.4 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 4.0 0.4 W. T0Iso 94 =~sp 70 _0V0 _

_1' 1 , §a~~~~~~~~~~9.490.0 10.2 90.2 90.0 0.4. 0.4. 0.4. 409

HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA Table A4L Selected-urneo1 IndlC2etomIseeonalty *justW

-~00 --- 037

So C:~ *3, r. 5.a7 9a8 Jo|n. r783b. Noar. 3 r. fl 1

wn .o11lo ...... s*Z Tot 7...... 0..0 . 0.22 .50 7.543 7 3.7 3.7 3. 3.3 3.3 s.7 3 .'Z .8 3.7. 33...... 73. .3 . 5 7 ...... 5.4 3.2 3.0 5.5 5.8 5 5.5

oo ...... 2.7 3.4 5.5 5.0 5.8 5.5 S..

sbbo_ 0 ,5 .8 43 32 32...... 37 37 3 . ,...... I...... z.*1Zsss^g. ~

L887383- 130 0 0.5...... 5. 5 ,,' '', .' 8.2. ' ....'.3 2 ....7.3~ ..7.5 7-.35 7.25 s2. .2. Pn ...... hl 5 ooM, 5s 7 &4 X5 , , ...... 7

Fbrd__ ~~~~~~~~~...... z58s*55ZD70s _ t0 ...... *s ' o '7 ' . e . . . 0A0 05 .3.. 5 . 77...... 5

00778550733 U-M.Y-dd ~~~ ~ ~ ~ b bb 738 7.8 ...... 702857033000 557 755 075 7.3 3.8 3.0 3.7 3.2 3. 37 5 5 75 383_ . . .

T A3l 7. 0t2n 72 7 .. 5 .

I,:.T All Ia I83. Apr.0 ,. _s _be 1 W7

-35- IMY,0

0.554 2,053 0.245 3. 33 7 3 ,3 3 .__...... 2.255 2.820 3 3, 7 3 9.758 ':'3':2 , 2.377 2.437 2,2325 asor_ .,...... 2,478 2.432 2.233 2:.' ,2...... N 2.737 2,050 2,373 ': ..a I.z72 X.2j7 :".10 0.000 545 7,.025 7.237 .743 0.730 IIX ; :', 2'. 0. 72 3 0s.705 7, 0 4, 11.09. I.7 2 8,. 703I. 00703o730.70...... n_ -...... §5S~ s I 04. 3 35. 5 03. 5 .. :.0^ 7 : ' sr 1.s o. b.l...... t... T-0.b...... r00.0 100.0 780.8 783.0 700.3 Tas4 ...... 58.s **.5 ... 42.2 32.5 32.2 ...... 11 2.s 27.s 24.4 ss.4 ss .0 7 - -.-...... , 23.7 20.8 27.5 V520 .1 ...... 15.r 72.7 15 87 72.0 73.0 15.9 : 11-. : 3 3l.7 7 3.0 73. 7

_ _ _ . 410

HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA Tabte Ad. R4son tor unmiwmployment

4, AS_^_,,. 4.7 N. 44. , 74. 4,. A. N ^

MANE OF 11 .LO

O ^ 2~~~~~~~~.443T$ 5l45 3.42| 4.T27 4.47 5.43 22 .24T2 T.7 _ 4 . .. . 2. 7 4.4A5 2.042 4.44A 2.,.4 2 .42 2.47 2.2742 2. 44

...... A .0 47 I a .040 *

- -67 557,2: 444n 12.2 12.4 11.4 *X.2 2.4 2.042 *2.7 7.4 2.4

,...... --... ":j2 .,2, 27 s- 7.7370i

F . 4...... 2 .2 - .. ;": ;": T ". . Ui 2S. 2 -X7 _ ...... _...... 1.1 I.: 2.1 - , 1. Job.y47 .2.3I...... 2 2.7 3.4 4.. 72 7.2 .

J47 4 54 ...... 9 S . S .. 4 . 4 . J l ~TableE 7_.,~ ~ - ~by ~A-LmW slUnmmoo 4.45 3.2| 4.24 l.A | iM4.4 FBy4.2 *W?4.2 F.,4.7 *4.

T74WoS 4.. . IA.4 44.2 4.42 7 A.2 17.7 45.7 to., 4. 45.4

474a 1$4 27.2 242. 24 2j .7 25. 2j.A 2.4 24.4 2. Table4$Ad .°.a p .Uns-7pb .a idui2 a uss72 2j 2 *i2id * 5- Is , ...... 4... . *. .S *744 S 2 S. S.2

O j"S -...... 7. 7.5 7.7 7.4 7.2 7.7 titsi~~~~~~y..t 474~~~~~~S54 44A 2744. 2A 24.7.4 24.4 .A 75. 7.20 374744S a,_$e F_ ...... _ . ..4254 i 7.2Ai.25 .7...... 2i22,IS,4 24077.4 4w.74.7 i7744 .S 74.52.5 .4 4s..7.2. 44.674., :74 447. .4 om...... 6A72 4.5447.5 4 4.A277. . 5.7.7 42 .7 4. . . , 4 47 U7447 w54 ...... 44...... 4...4 4.442, 4 734I4 224.424.45.4 44.75. .5 447,0 4 .. 74.4..T 27.45.

34.40. .... 554...... 7.21 544 7.7 14.2 47.4 4.4 . 44 . "4 4 MSS47...... 74.25.74.4.7.. 44S.4 7. 737477,4 444 444 442 27.4~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~:27. 127. 44 2. 24.2

S`= =- 2.05 .57'4.4 445 . 4.705.7 4.4 4.4I Soblf2.54 2-. IS:4 35. 4.7 5.4. 5.4 5.4 5... 411

HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA Tabl A-1I Enum satu of bl aniusot

23...... 437 23.723 103.34 .57 23.347 2 25. 5.4"o,24. 723

_~w9-7 4 ...... ~ ~ 750 2.04 2.93 2.04 7.i25 490n~-OWn ,.73.9. 7...... 2.4 2.077 7. 93..r2.2 72.. 2. 77.I 7 67334mlolo5* ...... 4. . 9.0 3 9.030 2 2t.1 . f 734 9.273 9.25 * 0 p W h'ro.4 - 990 dl - 933 - O. _90.7054933;n_3 el dals, _3539n.l #43

a c . .~~~~~~~ b3~~~~~Wms2.

537 fl t. 43...... 9. . f.. 4 , Tail A-T. Occupfima sta.of uloandoh smw_~d ndt _asnlbi _ -__~~~~~~~S" , & _ _h_ ~ -3 CS_~~~~~~~m...... ---l.orNr2.r2.rs2.12.. 2 . s,1 4 11 33 290 T., TOW.~:_ A. 7 40 _ _m

"SinOW~~~~~~~~733*o..43qrO Wwo sbr |wo TroreX...... 9*90|9. s2r7.Frslro

37. n5 ._ ci o b 73 9.339 9.203 7.04 9.5 7.3

_r0n.9S.39..._ 25...... 70i.44 7.034i jjin7337 7.3 . _ 33OW9| n 344r 4.347 274 793 4.T7 4.4 W~t_.S9330...... 3.43 4.990 _ _ ,~ ...... 474 43 9fi.0 .3 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~3*es *1Z4,7l 330 230 7.4 3.3 e~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~4 77.532ss7 2.024 9.0 90. 7.4 X__...... _ *.7 S ,.. *, 420 73. *.*i| t9sOW34a7 sW.a0_h ...... Isa303 4.774 ...402 ...... 593 7.9 4.4

lox~~~~~7 4.70 70 47 73. 90.4t a

JlllI 90907705490.4_099ObW h79030933U_195919790 412

HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA TabooA.12. Emopyaed atus of molb Vlelob ma noerno arid _aotmns by age notseasonally adjusted

__ . . T_ _.

1o n$1l~ 0.1 1 P s Is6700 Io 001 00 1plo

4.7 4.3 I3 - 0 .43 0 . I .07 33 33...... 4,.-3 4.243 4,003 3,074 725 20 23I 4 .0 4.2 70 .44.,7.. ... 0 4 . .70 . .. I .73...... 7.. 4 132 1.000 34 0 71 7.. 2.530 2.037 2.-33 141 103 4.7 4.3 3551307Z ...... 3.OOS 2.443 2.3S7 731 3.4 5.0 013 0. - ... 2.IOS 2.433 2,322 2.323 I.050 2.330 72 34 42 3.2 7.0 4370704007 ...... 30 3.370 1.070 1.274 1.0S4 .274

70303.333044003 3...0,...... |244 I0.521 177.255 70.233 74.337 1 7.303 000 * 35 3.2 4.4 243 4.3 4.3 337033003 5*03.43. 4.237 3.303 S.707 3,032 4,324 255 333 3.2 4.5 Zk2...... 4403 4,70 4.372 3.000 4,033 3,5 4.070 234

SOTE 331 Vl.7333_33 lbO__0h13403730034334300 FCFalW 5030 Ih2t 70100O01h_.203 34330103 0 44ol0347 000 ...... 14737735037014 4440315p34mM.,7.707.370003.. 19. 75J43033Zb07i3lb330d3bZ3 4370. 43403coooo 345bb,035 35301.003747.23 413

HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA Table A.13.Employment status of the. Ocivianpopulations for eleven large. states

......

62222no ...... 6oOS 0 .0.7 I0.32, 0,3 I2.,6 00602 20.. 007 0 n tm F2a8.. 2 , 0 3. 9 3 6 2 2 , 9 3 6 3 236 6 2 . 3 3 7 2 2 .2

pw2262.. ,20 ,03 S.6 3.35 .36 522 ,22 357 .6 E0WW, 09.3. 53 30 S. . .2 . . . .

u- 292Z822300 ...... 5 . 0 . 6 , 3 . 7 . 7 . 7 , 2 , 3

Q.2222.2708 ... 3,690 115.60 3.2 7 3.42 :.1600 3.03 ...... ~~~~1.ZZO 3,20. 3.20 5,32 5.6 3.0 3.20 '2 3.03 323 6 .2 6 3.2 E.O.62d ...... 6016 AOZ2 629 262 603 236" 636 026 W22o.7*Z ...... - 03 .Z . 2. .06 7. 7. .M. 0 230.Pw...... 3 -.. ,367 630 ,3 6,56 6.56 I.36, ,6 .7

26w. ... 2.0.3.3.3.. ~~. 2.6 .36 . 3.0 2.09 .

809290..... 3,393..0.072 620 .2 2.269 .92 603 .8 .2

62 5.29 2 ...... 7 .... 3 .2, 2.5 6. 36 . 25 . 62 .

0 . 2U-0 ...... 3,2 3. 3 2.0 3.9 3.3 3.0 3.6 3, 6 200

22.U7093707675.3 3.6 .2' 3.L.3 3.6I 2.2 3.7 2.0 2.2 782...... 062 62 . . 3. 0 23 67 2 , 7 03 06 3. 5 2 , 60 3. 6 2 , 60 2 77

3 7 .3r . S...... 0,4 .20 5.224 .0 6,60 6.0 .2 .32 ,2

9600W 7.M'.6 26. 2. . .6 22 06 . .

6.73 2.63 61.6 6,72 16,3 0,0 666 0.2 287 .626...... 38 .36 27.3.37 63 32G7 2 414

ESTABLISHMENT DATA E8TABLISHMENT DATA

Tabi. B&I. Eaployea Casnom8gricultuior paymofl by Industry

-~~~~ I 1: 1, W ~ ~ 23II20. 230II 2080 1. I920 ~ I , .

09,223.00.000 101 .03 0220 99.020 200.23 22.200202.329 20 .00" 102.002

0000.2...... 23'.22 $'.032 .... 84.002 .0 83.930 80.220 84.352 8400 2. 6

...... 04.I2 I .24,2 20 2224.I053 2.0 2.100 24.003 24.?.04 22.030 2 4.000 .,.v "I~~~~~~~~~0022 020 3 7 2014 022a 0l 22 002 32 035 ol I.od...22 .. 4 40.3 2093.2 02.0 43 403o I0 0 2 0 ...... 4,.0.....4..4.3.0..4..0 .030 0,03, 3.32: .02 4.~ G.- I0ld000~,*2l.2000..22...2,20.0.2..4..:3 0-2 2 .3122 2.303 2.291 .202 2.2..' ...... 8.02 2082 28.92 28.383 .2.020 22IsI08oII o A24.326I2I.0232 .02 2. p,0.r~...... 22,2235 22.84I 22,2046 20.93022 .003 22.2 22.222 3.162 92$ 12,tl 122.233 0o.20200000.22.224~~~~11 2274 I2.002223 2. 2.20 2.20 4220 22,20I 2I.204 pO4~C20..0.022 0.402 0000 .334 01.22 01.43 01.30 .2 03 000 .2

62..20....ooooo..062ok80.3I02od0028234.3 060.0 203.8 202.2 220~~~~6200 242 2.. 202 200 Fo6.,64224,..21.20.000028. 2,430.0...... 2,4432400 200.V .3 .2 2.04 2.03 240 .0

I4I.....2.0U40007I .. .. . 0,2000 2,090.62,08.3.I. 2,080 .29 .2 ,22.2.022 . 0.0o23 2.020 2,2. ,2.2'72,002.2I 01,0. 0.002 2.024011I ,0021 02 211I.004 2,002 2001,0200t08000.00022 .. 20220 634.0 63.2 023. 020 030 420 4.4 000 42

012n114..ooOO000400000. . 323. 343.3 36.3 33. 340 34 30 34 40 36 v2a.6220 0.6...... 3....0,03I0 0.0077:' 0.0' 0.003 0.02 080 0.229 0.3 0.840: 0.00000200.200.20.3~: 3.0 .8 ,0 .* .2 .2 .0 3.30 ,.4 . . .062230...... ,300 2,0. .06, 2.420 2.028 2.430 5.2.036 00 .0 2 ...... 0.07 03.0 3.0 33.0 60 321. 321 00 001I11 30. T.21202000402. 0.6006 02. 0 02 s22 00 02o0 ,0. 22322,0. ,200 220 .0 2,202fl2~.203 2.200 0.20 O-o..oa th,22I8.000 0 0 020.008220000028602.00,2.400,2220i20. ,63. 2,263400. ,63.7403.0 ,0.00.21 .040'0I42 .0 .8 .248 .2 . , 0I2d2I2d.. . . .2,022...0. 20200 202.0 .2 , .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 I020 ...... 202.0200.0 23 .4 24. 20 202I 204 202 204 200

00022010I ...... 0".32 2.2204 2.23 2 .2289 2.2 2.20 2.22 2.2 222".2

0004202,846.4 9 2,300.0 2 .22,3 2,023.0 2.2421 2.02 1 2.1200 0.040 2,04 2.030

7220...0.020.0,000...... 233 6,034 8.032 6.304 62306 2 .0 .30 2.20.3760 0.300 ...... I2093 7. 3,20 38,242 3.202 13.232 I 3.230 36.243s 3.26 36.200 320 2,020 2.20 002 202 000I,3s.2 ,2 .3 2.030

0.o.2.o..n 2~~~~...... 6.0221 20,207 20300 325.30020 0 2 40,33620.30 203 20.030I 20.03 0042.2' 2,022~s1'1 2,026s 2,024 2.230 2.222 202 204 2.2 .2 .2

0...02...... 201,23020,330 20. 20.4I2 2 2 7,00 2200 1201 .022 00.23 2 .24 0. 0o o..Io.I~.,o 0000.2*8080,0 - 080*800820,02202 08 820 2- 920 2 . 15.0 *80o : I I:o7 415

ESTABLISHMENT DATA ESTABLISHMENT DATA Table 8-2. Awnrge mreky houn of prd-ton Tn nodnr on pfvsto nonegricuitmi paymil. by hd..tly

...... ) (2) (2) (2) (2 c o n...... 31. (2) (2 ( ) (2) (2) (2) c r ...... *0 9 * - 4 ...... 0, ...... 1 1 * 9 * 6 * ...... 3 3.3 3.1 I., . ~ 3s 35 3 O -wtl qor ...... h .nwn ...... 3. 3.1X * 2 *1 * 3 3 .51 I z Z 3.6 mbrw0mwP J* 0.7 *6 *1- * AO.. .11 10.9 06 4 SIW5s ¢'GV K B~~ass 42W 6 *2 C *2 0 42 7 *2 1 -252 *25I.. 1, s *26

s~ .A~w...... - * 1 1 .6 41.4 6 ^ 2 4

Tnonpcnalbmmu ...... 31. .142s41 39*21 2 1 2) 0)*2 5 *23 2 s* 0

...... m .... 38.1 0 .I ( .1 0.) O .,2) ( ) (2 2 "0 W h * 3.9 ~~~~~~~~~~~~3.23 .1 I., 3.1 *0 3 *01 3. 8 *0z .. esm...... w. .1...... 5333

T -ilm cc ~ .T ...... 1 '1 315. 12)O (2)* (22) 02)1 I0} (2)7

prinilnoandout~~~lahingChemisolssoosell~~~~~~~~~priw~~~s 1741 ^ 9 382*2 0 1 11- s2 7 2 3.1*2 .,0 3.20 3. 41 s *2: 2 3.3*2 2 1 3.*2 0 13.*2 2 3*2 0~~~~~~~~~~~31

Trannaraulllm - §~~...... 3'.. 39.1 - 8~ 39.. o 31.2 31.. 31.o 9 ~ 1 31.2 n bb as ^ 37 9 3.....$. 3- 2 -, 18.3 30.3 18.1 3- -62 ...... 29 a 29 2 1.a3 - 1 21.0 21.3 19. 11.29 5 .1

r~~~u_ 325 t2 323 32~~~~~~~~~~332 26 -22 32.1 3-4

> sfIoProsb oo nmnn auacm2l mtw- ~41 o U 5Ue1o noh F w-r7InCO#UJWK o wl o I rwabwan Ail ni lnlsllora l Kr rrcu1r F q FW Fo utl17wOIlKrhl fOhfnom uo ro ~ew--c O00 sl dwmpcu 416

ESTABLISHMENT DATA ESTABLISHMENT DATA

Table &3 ArSa haudy and weudy earning o production or noeSTupeeaory woT e I on pdlnt. nonamgrkltwa payrolls by bndusb

-~ Nd -

_47 7.7|. *7.. 9.73.7 ...... 7. 4989 79197 1987 4987 8 798* 4990 1797 1*76 2

. . . 1 0 ...... 9 9309.03 3 7. .4 :* S88740.390 9.0* 9.94 .94 9.35 304.145 340.07 009.49 li11 . 2 _ ...... _2.5. 120.4. 11 11 12.91 2.911 51 9.6.2.92...0... 122.-2 5

. .. 4...... 12.37 42 1 42.551 2.94 4 1499.32 470.97 46.67

...... 72 9.95 9.7 .9 94.4 400.97 9 .7 0 .

11 1 0 .29 10.3910.3 40.9 423.54 . *41.9-. 11 401 2i9.3413 FrmlS7347479747Wf 739| 7.59 87.57 7.63 299.69 3047.-3 2337.2 8909327.7892*970 4 2 79.570 -4 40.49 40.22 40.05 420.29 44..46 30.0513 1437 73.85| 3.6* 47.97 43.70 500.35 594.92 597.94 599.56 84978789924C.0589894767 4421.76 F.427079474 7 9390e 9.59 9.99 9.97 403.67 444.59 409.49 l059 40.72 40.70 4 0.70 439.07l 432.78 224.05 45*.54 94967787.6.399245 396.55 65007624 950887499427.963 5.94 9.95 9.94 092.80 *02.44 535.901 Tnnnbr7729942548 42 73 42.96 42.79 4 2.92 535.95[ 5*7.9* 595.39| 539.74 DOD61d= . 29|7...2. 673 43.37|. 47.39 962.9 592..77 965.5 566.4 8147487920796273 *52 7.66 7.67 7.73 290.29 5770.04 497.60 5073.24 736.4 8 _92a 9 92 9.09 5.44 9a.79 955.021 363.60 764.07 w D 097 9.97 8.7 8.94 352.2 1 352.74 754.701 757.60 F039707 1a29nlw 929.77 546.97 o ...... 49 3.9 4429 464..... 529.79 48976.64 79479,747797f0| "77.4 17.47 7.43 2906i.99 26 2990 29.9 59 7 7 ...... 94 . 70...... 190 42.24 72.39 42.74 499.41 515.70 51.2 9417.04 67794570a442444*4748949 6-.6004 P.92928783879 92. 74.50 44.39 44.55 607.00 039.95 6341.76 9.90 9.92 9.94 357.991 345.20 363.7*1 395.62 Rr9.bIC~.771798478770207097 224.72 209.52 L..777.7.22422777478 99 0.06| 6.| 6.74 247.70 220.25 .67 464.4 ...... 44.9 7.90115 14.94 4546 400 61 303.09. 363.57 91_6 3.30 6.97 9.59 9.87 757.72 704..49 779.44 e _ust 2.0 4 .09 0.061 6.09 474.99 4 75.74 477.901 344.07 759..m9898949 37 9'.72 9.07 9.05 900.971 340.94 344.721 ..... 40.9.04.6.39.9.38.297.45.272.47.272...... 70.67

- 709973 bl982. 942J E:70 79*9 4799_ 50334 7099.62r 94Sopad _ . . 7. ._...... 7 .. . 69.. . *77. 947 4I ,.

...... 74 98 * 2 78 8 9 9 79...... -.30 p - p1 15 .1 - 31 - - 5

...... 67-T 09 - n971 17 . I .

...... 07,8 .... A.'O4 9 S . 9 *0 u a 0 4 0 9 9 2 9 9 2 9 9 29 9 0 7.3*~i 9193 69449 ...... 8. . . .. 72.6 7 .. 2.2 46 474.2 .9 72 .2 012.5 772.6 42 Tal97 Hul. EripIne o production or87*,77007208994934nonsper489d r w*999rs anpiae8n.rclue srol yIdsr __ ~~~~~~9.9...... 45 .53.0 453.7 454.0 I4.9 757.4 492.0 452.4 453.9 433.7 450.2 .3 772.3 177.6 775.0 474.7 I.7 472.3 779.4 773.7 474.3 479.4 474.2 .5 .6 T____ 409.5 474.4 774.7 4742 3.21 170.9 473.0 174.3 170.0 147.7 479.7 S C_ 158 1~4777775.9 479.8 770-.9 2.9 45i75 757.S 05537 7975 4945i (9s 497

0. 499.9 3. 9 . .90.2 4 05 257 7501 5)(54 . 454 99.9999 479...... 3 ...... 73.2 7.3 79.3 79 3 73.6 77.5 . 79.0 179. 179.7

*899 sal. as5 * 58 :27 2 709'. 5. ..909 ...... 1.. .. . 8.90 a- 6

Ir7.36.92 5 ...... 7 to 7__.. . ..b9 . ..?, / 1,

417

ESTABLISHMENT DATA ESTABLISHMENT DATA Table B.S. Indexes of aggregate .- kly hours OfProduction or n.m-pemlsory workerson what. Payroll$ fly Industry

'N, T- ,...... 13 .9 ...... I. .. C...... '33. '".1 V. .3'.. - .0 U ...... - -, .- ...... _...... 12.1 .1, 11.1 1- 12.1 11-1 ...... M - , - ...... 11.1 .0- ......

...... 16.1 " A' E.- ...... 1, 8- - I 18, I 11: d ...... 11.3 ...... T.. 11.3 11.1 1- 11 3 11 11 I ...... :"-3 11-1 62...... V.- ...... 11.7 ...... 13 ...... - .1 - .1 13- P-- -"' - - - 1- 1 1.6.2 - .1 1- 1 11, 81 ...... - ...... 1- 3 ...... - ...... ! I" .. 12, ...... ::2.: .1- ......

p d

Table 6-6. Indexes Of diffusim: Percent of Industries 1. which employment, Increased

1 -7 a- MY I - - 8-- I - I - ';:,3 '13:1 11 :.1 'I'I: ' ": : " 'I" :3 .7- -2- -6 I I .I , 11 .1 p

11 . : I "" : '. ,,:', . .1p 61 .1, '

-13:.1 13:1 0- ":11 2' 1,1:3, , 11 :l 1: :,2 1; :.1 I.,-; 1 3

11:6 11 .. 1 1.3 11. ... c-12- ":i " r 51.9 .,p 51 8,

I I I - --. -- y - . 1. , .. .- - . r- . -- r-. - . - .- - -P1-. N.. - ,. -11- . . I- - - -. - - - . -O) ------. - - - - - - .4-- - 418

Senator PROXMIRE. Thank you Mrs. Norwood. Mrs. Norwood, as I indicated, both the labor force and employment grew more than 600,000 in May after seasonal adjustment. Before seasonal adjustment total employment rose more than 1.2 million in May. All the other economic signs suggest the economy has been flat. How can a flat economy create more jobs and how can a flat economy sustain this kind of an increase that we had in April and that was carried over into May? Mrs. NORWOOD. We always create this number of jobs, somewhere between 2 and 4 million jobs, between April and July, because in the summer as the weather improves and schools close, there are a lot of people who are looking for work and most of them are successful in finding jobs. Senator PROXMIRE. Let me interrupt. I am trying to get behind that. All these data are seasonally adjusted, right? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes, but this May the increase was more than seasonally adjusted. Senator PROXMIRE. If you make an adjustment for the normal increase you would have in May, and yet we have a big drop in April, the indications are that that was sustained in May, carried through in May, but at the same time we seem to have a flat economy on every other measurement. Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes, that's correct. Senator PROXMIRE. I know that unemployment is a lagging indicator. Mrs. NORWOOD. Unemployment, of course, was flat this month. Moreover the establishment survey shows a relatively small employment increase. Clearly construction has not been doing well, and that, as you indicate, certainly fits together with the data in the housing area. I think that even though the economy is not growing very rapidly, it is still growing, and we would still expect to have an increase in jobs in the summer months. However as I've indicated in my prepared statement, I believe that the size of the May employment and labor force increases are probably exaggerated. Senator PROXMIRE. The economy is growing, but the economy is growing at a rate which on the basis of past experience is not enough to diminish unemployment. In fact, at a rate of about 2.5 percent or so, or less-the last figure we had was 1.4 percent or something like that-that normally results in an increase in unemployment, particularly if productivity is increasing, and there has been some increase in productivity. Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. Much of the research has suggested a 3 percent growth rate for the economy is necessary to keep the unemployment rate from increasing. That research was based on conditions that were quite different from now. The labor force increase has slowed down and we project for the future that it will continue to be slower than it has been in the past. That means that you don't need to create quite as many jobs as you did before. If you look at the current recovery period compared to the recovery period of the 1970's, there is clearly a much smaller labor force increase as well as a somewhat smaller employment increase. Senator PROXMIRE. Average weekly hours and overtime hours in manufacturing rose significantly in May. That is another indica- 419 tion of economic activity and it is particularly noteworthy in view of the fact that we had a relatively flat economy. Was that just a reversal of the April decline that you attributed to the fact that Good Friday and Passover both occurred in the April survey week, or is it a sign of strengthening in manufacturing? Mrs. NORWOOD. As we said last month, we thought the drop in hours last month was holiday related. I think this month's figure proves that to be the case. Therefore, there is no real increase in hours. The one thing that is different is that overtime hours are rather high. But, of course, employment in manufacturing is really very flat. Senator PROXMIRE. I notice in your diffusion index you have another contrary indicator here. In February the percentage of industries in which employment increased was 56.8 percent; that increased in March to 58.6 percent; it increased in April to 59.7 percent; and then last month it dropped to 55.9 percent and wiped out all of the gains over the past 4 months. Mrs. NORWOOD. That is correct, but it is still a fairly high number. Senator PROXMIRE. It's still a high number, but it dropped below February, below March, and below April, and quite a significant drop. Let me ask you about something else. I am certain you are aware that Irvin Kelner, the chief economist at Manufacturers Hanover, has developed what he calls the nuisance index. That index follows the prices of frequently purchased goods and services, such as toothpaste, ground coffee, haircuts, dry cleaning of a suit, and a 2- mile taxi ride. Because these items are bought all the time, the changes in their prices may heavily influence consumers' perception of the rate of inflation. The nuisance index rose an average of 15 percent a year in 1985 and 1986, or four times faster than the official Consumer Price Index. Since we can postpone buying a new car but must have our morning cup of coffee, does the nuisance index better reflect the short-term perception of inflation than does the standard CPI and does the BLS have anything similar to the nuisance index? Mrs. NORWOOD. No, we don't have any nuisance index. I would be very disturbed, Senator, if we tried to look at inflation without taking account of the price of basic food and shoes and clothing and transportation, subway transportation and buses, the kinds of things that people of this country really have to buy. Senator PROXMIRE. Nobody is asking that. I am just saying could you have something of this kind that would supplement it to a modest extent? You are absolutely right. What we are concerned about are the fundamental increases in the cost of living that go to the necessities. At the same time I think that is an interesting perception. Politically it is a good perception, at least. Mrs. NORWOOD. It certainly is an interesting concept. I think there would be a great deal of disagreement on what should be included in it. BLS issues a number of indexes with specific exclu- sions and there are people who redefine inflation by looking at what they call an underlying rate, which excludes food, housing, and cars, for example. There are lots of different approaches to this. 420 Senator PROXMIRE. There is another statistic that indicates that the workers in this country are being left out, that people who work are not getting their share; the people who own stock, the people who benefit from higher profits are doing well. A headline in yesterday's New Times proclaimed "As Output Gains Wages Lag." According to the article real hourly compensation of Ameri- can manufacturing workers rose an average of only eight-tenths of 1 percent annually from 1981 through 1986. During the same period the U.S. manufacturing sector enjoyed annual productivity growth which averaged 4 percent. What has happened to unit labor costs and profit margins in the U.S. in the past 5 years and would you please compare the changes in labor costs over the past 5 years in the U.S. to those in its major trading partners? Mrs. NORWOOD. It is quite clear that unit labor costs and wage rate increases in the last 5 years have been much lower than in previous years, partly because the rate of inflation has decelerated in manufacturing. For example, over the last year unit labor costs were negative. I think we had a period during the 1970's and the 1960's when wages were increased more than productivity and where because of the tremendous inflation that we had we were finding an even greater increase built into collective bargaining agreements that had cost-of-living adjustments. So everything got out of line. It is clearly true that increases in productivity now are not being reflected in increases in wages. You are quite right about that. We have become noncompetitive in a number of areas, and somehow costs have to be reduced in order to reduce prices. That does not mean it has to come out of wages, of course, but labor costs have been considered to be four-fifths or more of the total cost. That is a continuing problem and I think will be with us for a long time. Senator PROXMIRE. Is that in part because of a relatively high level of unemployment compared to what we had in the 1950's and 1960's when unemployment averaged 5 or 6 percent? It is much less than it was a little while ago, but it is still substantially higher than it was in the 1950's and 1960's, and therefore, I presume that labor's bargaining position is weaker. Mrs. NORWOOD. That is certainly a factor. I think a greater factor is the restructuring of industry that is occurring. Those workers who have had the largest bargaining power tend to be in the industries that are going through the greatest difficulty right now. Senator PROXMIRE. Does that mean the labor unions are weaker? Mrs. NORWOOD. I wouldn't say that the unions are weaker, but the unions have been strongest in the past in those industries which now are going through tremendous structural change, where plants are closing down and where the emphasis both of the union and of management seems to be to keep jobs rather than to worry about trying to increase wage rates. The union movement is clearly recognizing the need to move into many of the service-producing industries to strengthen their position there, but they have lost membership disproportionately to the decline in employment. 421 Senator PROXMIRE. Last Sunday's New York News Day featured an article entitled "Inflation Comes Back for More." The subtitle reads "The 1987 rate is already 6 percent. Are rough times ahead?" For the 3 months ending in April the CPI rose at a 5.3 percent annual rate compared to 2.5 percent the 3 months ending in De- cember. What caused this increase in the inflation rate and do the figures suggest to you that inflation is returning? Mrs. NORWOOD. We don't see any evidence of very high rates of inflation, but we may be seeing and are seeing somewhat higher rates of price increase than in the past. We are anticipating and we are beginning to see increases in the price of imports, and that is going to go through the economy. The big issue, as I indicated last month or the month before, is what will be the reaction of Ameri- can producers as import prices go up. If we raise our prices along with the prices of imports we will have more inflation. If, on the other hand, we keep our prices low and try to expand our markets we would have a different situation. Perhaps Mr. Dalton has something more to say about that. Mr. DALTON. No, I don't think so. Specifically, the reason for the acceleration is we no longer have the ameliorating effects of lower energy prices. In part that is the explanation. We also had some very, very substantial increases in the last 2 months in apparel prices, which are apparently associated with higher import prices. Senator PROXMIRE. Except for 1986 the inflation rate has been just under 4 percent for every year since 1982. In 1986 the inflation rate would have been 4 percent except for the decline in oil prices. What explains this 4 percent ceiling over the inflation rate? Mrs. NORWOOD. I don't know. Perhaps, stickiness of prices, a growing economy, expansionism. Senator PROXMIRE. In previous testimony you listed a number of industries that have not regained all the jobs lost during the 1981- 82 recession. Are there currently any industries that still have not recovered all the jobs lost during that recession, in view of the recent increase in employment? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. There happen to be 10 industries that have lost employment during the recovery period. Senator PROXMIRE. They still have lost even as of May 1987? Mrs. NORWOOD. Yes. Senator PROXMIRE. Can you tell us what those 10 industries are? Mrs. NORWOOD. Mining lost close to 300,000; primary metals and steel, nonelectrical machinery, instruments, tobacco, apparel, chemicals, petroleum and coal, and leather. All have lost employment since November 1982. Textile employment is about at the same level it was in November 1982. In addition several other industries have not regained all of the jobs lost during the 1981-82 recession. Senator PROXMIRE. For most of the recovery from the 1981-82 recession the unemployment for adult women was higher than for adult men. By March 1987, the unemployment rate for women had fallen to 5.8 percent, the same rate as for men, and both fell to 5.5 percent in April. Since women work predominantly in service industries, does the decline in the unemployment rate for women suggest that the service industries can expect labor shortages? Are 422 there any service industries that are currently experiencing labor problems? Mrs. NORWOOD. I think women are beginning to move into some of the occupations in the service industries which require greater education and training. At the moment we don't see any real evidence of labor shortages. Senator PROXMIRE. Let me ask you about one other area of labor shortage that might tie into that. According to your May 14 release on the youth labor force, the overall population of 16- to 24-year- olds will be about 450,000 lower this summer than it was last summer. I am wondering how that will affect employment opportunities and wages for young people this summer, and are there any industries that are being adversely affected by the decline in the number of young people available? Mr. PLEWES. I think that there are a couple of things going on. First of all, the total number of young people in the population is going down, but that is somewhat counterbalanced by the increasing tendency for those young people who are around to participate in the labor market. So, on balance there seems to be an offset. Some industries may be having shortages and some areas of the country, as well. We can look at the New England economy as an example, with a very low unemployment rate not only in Massa- chusetts, which we have on a monthly basis, but in other States up there. We are beginning to see some real shortages in certain industries in New England. There may also be other areas of the country and certain industries where there are shortages. How these are related to the amount of wages that the industries are offering to pay to people is not quite clear. Mrs. NORWOOD. This demonstrates, I think, Senator, the problem that we have in the statistical system. We have quite good data, high quality at the national level, but the labor market developments are really occurring at local levels, and our data at local levels are not as good as we would like. There seems to be a clear shift; that is, increases in employment seem to be in the western States and decreases in unemployment seem to be in the East. We have graphed that, and it is quite striking. This really fits in with what Mr. Plewes was saying. In some parts of the country the labor force is smaller than the economy would seem to need and in other parts of the country employment is growing and people may be beginning to move now. Senator PROXMIRE. I am going to have to leave to go to the floor, but let me ask one more question. The revised payroll figures show that manufacturing employment is about 200,000 less than we originally thought. Since September of 1986 we have seen a slow but steady rise in payroll employment in manufacturing under the old figures. Do the new figures change that picture? Mrs. NORWOOD. Not really. Over the past year manufacturing has been flat. There has been no increase in employment over the past year. But since January there has been an increase of about 60,000. It is small, a little bit each month, but there seems to be a slightly different pattern since the beginning of this year in manufacturing. 423

Senator PROXMIRE. Thank you very, very much. I apologize for having to leave. I think you made an excellent appearance, as you always do. The committee will stand in adjournment. [Whereupon, at 10 a.m., the committee adjourned, subject to the call of the Chair.]

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