Northern Syria Market Monitoring Exercise Cash-Based Responses August 2015 Technical Working Group

INTRODUCTION METHODOLOGY ASSESSED MARKETS

To understand market functionality in northern Between 17 and 23 August 2015, a network of field KoBoCollect Android app to upload data. Lower Ain Al Azaz ALEPPO Syria and how markets cope with the challenges enumerators affiliated with CBR–TWG members Shyookh Arab Afrin Tall In order to be included in the Market Monitoring created by the conflict, the Cash-Based Responses collected detailed information about the availability ALEPPO Refaat Exercise, markets had to be permanent in nature, Technical Working Group (CBR–TWG) and REACH and prices of key food items, non-food items and large enough to support at least 2 wholesalers, Daret conduct monthly monitoring of key markets. In each fuel in northern Syria. Ten partners (CARE/Shafak, Azza Haritan and diverse enough to provide a sufficient variety market, the field teams record the prices and stock Concern, GOAL, IRC, Mercy Corps, the Norwegian Harim Aleppo of commodities. The shops surveyed within each levels of selected food and non-food items (NFIs) Refugee Council, People in Need, REACH, Salqin Qorqanya Atarib market had to be housed in permanent structures Armanaz Kafr Zarbah sold by local traders and retailers. Data collectors Save the Children and Solidarités International) Takharim and had to sell certain commodities to be eligible Hadher also monitor the prices of several types of fuel to contributed data from 27 subdistricts across Idleb, Darkosh Teftnaz for inclusion. Enumerators obtained consent from Idleb Maar understand the availability and pricing of different Aleppo and Al-Hasakeh governorates. IDLEB Tamsarin traders prior to administering each survey. fuel types. Basic commodities have been identified Sarmin Al-Malikeyyeh Enumerators were trained on methodology and Amuda based on what is typically available, sold and used Following data collection, the REACH assessment Qahtaniyeh Jwadiyeh tools by the REACH assessment team and CBR– Ma'ra by an average Syrian household. Many of these team compiled and cleaned all partners’ data, Kafr An-Nu'man TWG members. Each enumerator assessed one to Nobol AL-HASAKEH items are components of the Survival Minimum normalizing prices, cross-checking outliers and HAMA three major markets in their assigned subdistrict, Expenditure Basket (SMEB), detailed in the table triangulating the results using secondary sources. using surveys to elicit information about prices, the to the right, which outlines the minimum culturally- The cleaned data was then analysed by commodity availability of stock and the time needed to replace adjusted group of items required for survival for a and by subdistrict. Prices were divided into current stocks. six-person household over a one-month period. quartiles and boxplots were created to help CBR– SURVIVAL MINIMUM EXPENDITURE Seven survey forms were deployed on KoBo to TWG members understand the distribution of the BASKET (SMEB) CONTENTS This report provides an overview of price ranges capture price and stock information from different data set. In addition, the average cost of an SMEB and medians for key foods, NFIs and types of fuel types of establishments, including grocery stores, in each subdistrict was calculated and mapped by Item Quantity across the areas assessed. In order to illustrate bakeries and fuel traders. Enumerators used the the REACH GIS team. Food Bread 37 kg variation in prices and availability, REACH has Items Bulgur 15 kg used the collected data to map the price of an Chicken 4 kg SMEB in each subdistrict. The cleaned data sets Eggs 6 kg are available on the REACH Resource Centre and CHALLENGES AND LIMITATIONS Fresh vegetables* 6 kg are distributed to CBR–TWG partners, as well as CBR–TWG partners closely monitor the security alongside data from other governorates. Ghee 7 kg to the clusters. context in the subdistricts where they have Rice 19 kg Coordinating a cross-border price monitoring committed to collect data and are encouraged Salt 1 kg exercise via remote management is inherently not to expose their enumerators to undue risk. Sugar 5 kg challenging, as issues of enumerator training, In August 2015, two partners scaled back their Tomato paste 6 kg consistent communication and verification of WHAT IS THE coverage and one delayed its participation due to Non-Food Individual soap 12 pcs results are harder to resolve from afar. As the CASH-BASED RESPONSES security constraints. All of these partners plan to Items Laundry/dish soap 2 kg Market Monitoring Exercise grows, aligning the expand their participation in future months if the Sanitary pads 4 packs of 10 TECHNICAL WORKING GROUP? data collection efforts of all participating partners security context allows. Toothpaste 2 pcs The Cash-Based Responses Technical becomes more difficult. CBR–TWG members have Fuel Kerosene 25 L Working Group (CBR–TWG) was established Data from Qamishli and Janudiyeh were removed sought to overcome these issues by using a single (manually refined) in March 2014 to analyse the impact of the from the data set for methodological reasons, as set of online survey forms, uploading all data to Water Water* 2790 L ongoing conflict on markets in Syria and to prices there were not collected from a sufficient a central server, and harmonising procedures to Other 6% total value guide the implementation of humanitarian cash number of markets. In addition, restocking data ensure that the data uploaded are as clean and 6% float* and voucher programs within those markets. from al-Hasakeh governorate was collected using accurate as possible. a different methodology and could not be analysed * Starred items were excluded from SMEB calculations. AUGUST 2015: of 27 sub-districts; of these, 6 sub-districts lacked NORTHERN SYRIA CONTEXT only bread and no other commodity. Kerosene MAIN PRICE CHANGES MAIN SHORTAGES shortages were observed in Harim, Ain al-Arab, The governorate of Aleppo has been the focus of Lower Shyookh and Qahtaniyah sub-districts, but international headlines throughout the month of EGGS, TOMATO PASTE, BULGUR, BREAD, could not be called widespread, in contrast to July August, as discussions continue surrounding the POTATOES, GOVERNMENT DIESEL KEROSENE when kerosene was unavailable in nearly two- creation of a “buffer zone” extending from Suran thirds of assessed subdistricts. in the west to Jarablus in the east. Rival militant groups have been trying to consolidate their COMMODITY PRICE CHANGES toothpaste has fallen slightly from 140 to 125 SYP Other commodities that were locally unavailable control over this area, with heavy fighting taking On 20 August 2015, at the midpoint of the data (0.47 to 0.40 USD, 11%). Meanwhile, the maximum included bulgur in Ma’arrat an-Numan, tomato place in the villages surrounding Mare. As a result, collection period, the price of the US dollar on recorded prices rose greatly for sanitary pads (175 paste and eggs in Ain al-Arab and Lower Shyookh, CBR–TWG partners’ plans to collect price data in Aleppo’s informal currency exchange market was to 375 SYP, 0.58 to 1.20 USD, 114%) and laundry and all types of soap in the city of Aleppo. Overall, Mare and the nearby city of Tall Refaat had to be 313 Syrian pounds (SYP), a 4% rise from 300 SYP/ soap (379 to 550 SYP, 1.26 to 1.76 USD, 45%), there were 15 assessed subdistricts where all abandoned. USD in mid-July. Despite this slight rise, Aleppo’s though this was driven largely by higher local SMEB commodities were available. unofficial exchange rates for most global currencies prices in sub-districts that have been newly added In Idleb governorate, the Syrian government and have remained relatively stable since late May. to the Market Monitoring Exercise. RESTOCKING TIME opposition forces continued to clash over the Rates for the Turkish lira (TRY) have been more government-held villages of al-Fuah and Kafraya, Fuel prices seem to have stabilised after the Apart from localised shortages, supply chains volatile, but have for the most part hovered around just northeast of Idleb in the heart of the assessed extreme price swings of late June and early July. throughout the assessed area seemed to be 110 SYP/TRY, hitting 108 SYP/TRY on 20 August. area, as well as over the Kwaires military airport Prices tend to cluster tightly around the medians, functioning well, with markets retaining adequate This trend held steady even as the value of the lira east of Ma’arrat an-Numan. The Kwaires conflict which have changed little since July, with localised stock of most available items and reporting median continued to slide throughout August. has severed several supply routes leading into shortages and subsidies creating some distant restock times of 1 day. The situation in Ain al-Arab Ma’arrat an-Numan, making it difficult to restock The prices of most food items remained steady outliers. The minimum reported prices of all types and Lower Shyookh subdistricts, however, was very many items. Meanwhile, the bombing of Bennsh during the month of August, with eggs and tomato of fuel have dropped, often dramatically, due to the different. Enumerators there found shortages of 10 and Maaret Tamsrin has reportedly abated and paste standing out as the major exceptions. The expansion of the Market Monitoring Exercise into commodities and median restock times of between residents and traders are beginning to return, median price of eggs rose from 500 to 650 SYP al-Hasakeh governorate and Ain al-Arab, where 3 and 7 days for all remaining food items, NFIs and which has made it possible to reincorporate (1.67 to 2.08 USD, 30%), while that of tomato paste local councils generally subsidise the cost of fuel. types of fuel. Traders in Ma’arrat an-Numan also Maaret Tamsrin into the August Market Monitoring fell from 425 to 350 SYP (1.42 to 1.12 USD, 18%), The only type of fuel to exhibit price instability was reported difficulty restocking many items in a timely Exercise. In al-Hasakeh governorate, however, receding after its earlier rise in July. Bulgur and government diesel; this commodity remains hard manner, including flour, rice, tomato paste, eggs, weeks of non-stop fighting among non-state potatoes also became notably more expensive; to find in opposition-held areas, but even so, the vegetable oil, toothpaste, and government petrol actors and the Syrian government led to a suicide the median price of bulgur rose by 41% (78 to 110 August median price plummeted from 312 to 135 and diesel. SYP per litre (1.04 to 0.43 USD, 57%). bombing in Qamishli that forced a premature halt to SYP, 0.26 to 0.35 USD), and that of potatoes rose In general, traders across the assessed area CBR–TWG data collection in that city and several by 46% (65 to 95 SYP, 0.22 to 0.30 USD). The ISSUES OF AVAILABILITY reported that they had the most difficulty restocking others. price of chicken in most subdistricts fell slightly in flour. Median flour restock times were greater August after rising rapidly throughout July, though Two-thirds of SMEB commodities were found in all In late July, opposition-held areas of eastern than 3 days in Idleb, Kafr Takharim and Armanaz. localised price spikes kept the median roughly even markets assessed in August. Of the remaining one- Aleppo unofficially abandoned the Syrian pound Enumerators also observed low potato stocks (500 SYP in August vs. 490 SYP in July). Vegetable third, most were missing from only one or two of the and adopted the Turkish lira in its place. ATMs in Teftnaz, Maaret Tamsrin, Kafr Takharim and oil and sugar exhibited assessed subdistricts. dispensing lira have been set up throughout Armanaz; in all four areas, traders estimated that similar localised spikes. However, the bread eastern Aleppo to help residents switch currencies. ALEPPO EXCHANGE RATE their remaining stock of potatoes would last them shortages observed for fewer days than it would take them to restock. The eventual aim is to implement the Turkish lira Non-food items, too, have 20 AUGUST 2015 in July persisted into as the primary currency throughout opposition-held remained surprisingly August. Enumerators did northern Syria. CBR–TWG partners report that stable after the volatility 313 SYP/USD not find bread for sale in some shops in the city of Teftnaz and elsewhere of previous months. 108 SYP/TRY any assessed market in 8 have already begun to conduct business in lira. The median price of

Cash-Based Responses 2 Northern Syria Market Monitoring Exercise, August 2015 Technical Working Group FOOD ITEMS

2500 2400

2000 1700 ($5.43) ▼75 1500

1000 950 925 ice (SYP) 1000 750 750

P r 650 600 ($2.08) 500 ▲150 ($1.60) 500 375 350 375 325 325 360 ▲10 ($1.20)▲ ($1.12) 250 375 ($1.04) ($1.04) 230 175 200 200 0 ▼75 ▲25 ▲13 ($0.80) 110 100 165 100 125 95 150 220 250 ▼25 ($0.56) 60 200 200 ($0.35) ▲ ($0.30) 125 150 ▼5 ($0.32) ($0.32) ($0.19)▲ 0 90 60 ▲32 12 0 65 ▼10 60 ▲30 20 0 Tea Eggs Chicken Ghee Tomato Paste Rice Vegetable Oil Red Lentils Sugar Bulgur Bread Flour Potatoes Salt (1 kg) (30 eggs) (1 kg) (1 kg) (1 kg) (1 kg) (1 L) (1 kg) (1 kg) (1 kg) (7−8 loaves) (1 kg) (1 kg) (1 kg)

NON-FOOD ITEMS FUEL How to read a box plot

Box plots provide a variety of data to aid in 550 500 500 understanding the distribution of the data set. 500 425 All price figures in the box plot are in USD. ($1.36) 400 ▲25 400 375 Maximum price in data set (SYP) 350 200 300 292 300 Upper quartile: 25% of the ($0.93) 300 150 data is above this point ▼1 225 225 202 Median price in data set ice (SYP) 200 185 200

ice (SYP/L) (SYP and USD) 200 200 ($0.59) 170 P r 150 ▲5 ($0.54) 140 150 100 90 ($0.48) 125 125 125 P r ▼5 135 125 ($0.29) Change in median from 150 ($0.40) ($0.40) ($0.40) ($0.45) ($0.43) previous month (SYP) ▼25 ▼10 ($0.40) ▼15 100 ▼5 ▲13 ▼15 ▼177 ▲5 100 100 Lower quartile: 25% of the 75 40 data is below this point 40 50 50 50 0 24 40 35 35 0 Minimum price in data set (SYP) Laundry Soap Dish Soap Individual Sanitary Pads Toothpaste Gov't Gasoline Manually Kerosene Gov't Manually (1 kg) (1 L) Soap (1 pack) (100 g) Petrol Refined Diesel Refined (1 bar) Petrol Diesel

Cash-Based Responses Northern Syria Market Monitoring Exercise, August 2015 3 Technical Working Group CCash-BasedASH-BAS EResponsesD RESP O NSE Syria - Survival Minimum Expenditure Basket (SMEB) Cost For Humanitarian Purposes Only Production date : 27 August 2015 TTTechnicalEechnicalCHNIC AWWorkingLorking WOR GroupKING GROUP Market Monitoring - August 2015

SURVIVAL MINIMUM EXPENDITURE BASKET This map illustrates the price and availability of a range of basic commodities in 27 Item Quantity Azaz sub-districts of Idleb, Aleppo and al-Hasakeh governorates in northern Syria. Primary $90.66 Bread 37 Kg data was collected by CBR−TWG members from 17-23 August 2015, on behalf of the Rice 19 Kg Cash-Based Responses Technical Working Group, in order to understand the impact of Afrin Tall Refaat Bulgur 15 Kg $96.07 $94.12 the ongoing conflict on markets in Syria and inform the implementation of humanitarian Ghee 7 Kg cash and voucher programs within those markets. TURKEY Haritan Sugar 5 Kg $93.59 The assessment monitored the prices of basic food and non-food items, selected based Tomato paste 6 Kg Daret Azza on what is typically available, sold and used by an average Syrian household. These Chicken 4 Kg Harim Qourqeena $88.90 $82.25 items form a Survival Minimum Expenditure Basket (SMEB), detailed in the table below, Eggs 6 Kg Salqin $86.66 Atareb Salt 1 Kg $97.58 Kafr Takharim Jebel Saman which represents the minimum culturally adjusted set of commodities required to maintain $87.83 $77.12 $73.75 Maaret a six-person household for a one-month period. For the purposes of this assessment, Laundry/dish soap 2 Kg Armanaz Tamsrin Teftnaz fresh vegetablesTU andR waterKE areY not included in the calculations, as prices vary Individual soap 12 Pcs $91.36 Darkosh $96.12 $95.43 Zarbah Hadher considerably according to source and season. Toothpaste 2 Pcs $65.73 $84.52 $86.61 Idleb Sarmin Sanitary pads 4 packs of 10 $89.10 ALEPPO $86.63 Based on the data collected, this map shows the calculated price of an SMEB for each of Kerosene the assessed sub-districts. The majority of items could be found in all assessed markets, (manually refined) 25 L IDLEB but shortages of some items mean that not all baskets can be directly compared. 6% float 6% total value

Maarrat An Numan $84.82 SYRIA Kafr Nobol Al Malika $83.26 Jawadiyah $75.75 HAMA TURKEY $60.69 Amuda Qahtaniyyeh $78.07 $65.48 Ain Lower al Arab Shyookh $53.96 $63.29

ALEPPO AL-HASSAKEH Al-Hassakeh

IRAQ AR-RAQQA ² Turkey T

km A e s

Al-Hassakeh S v

Ar-Raqqa O DEIR-EZ-ZOR i N

Aleppo o f a t

0 50 100 i U t Idleb Ar-Raqqa e v d n i i I t a n a T

Lattakia i t D C Deir-ez-Zor i n A

Hama i T E P Syrian Arab C n

Tartous M A I Governorate Capital Complete SMEB A Homs Republic Data sources: OCHA COD, REACH, Note: Data, designations and

© OpenStreetMap contributors boundaries contained on this map are H Roads SMEB excluding kerosene only

not warranted to be error-free and do C Damascus Iraq Coordinate System: GCS WGS 1984 not imply acceptance by the REACH Quneitra Sub Districts A SMEB excluding bread only File: REACH_SYR_SMEB_Aug2015_A4_V2 partners, associates or donors

Dar'a E Jordan As-Sweida Contact: [email protected] mentioned on this map. Governorates SMEB excluding other items R