Syria Intelligence Report – 07-09 October 2017 On Friday evening, the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK), supporting numerous Free Syrian Army (FSA) factions that participated in the Operation Euphrates Shield, launched the first steps of its operations in Idlib. Dubbed Idlib Shield, the operation was described by the TSK as a means to observe and enforce the de-escalation regime that was agreed in December 2016. The TSK stated that these operations, which are being conducted with support from the Russian Airforce, are looking to facilitate the suitable conditions to ensure the return of Syrian refugees to their homes and deliver humanitarian aid to the region. The TSK statement further mentioned that the immediate objectives of the forces are to set up observation posts in key areas. So far, the TSK has ruled out any intent of operations against the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), Hayy’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the People’s Protection Units (YPG). However, subsequent statements, as well as statements from the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan over the weekend suggest that in the long-term, the TSK and its FSA allies are seeking to contain the HTS and the YPG in Idlib and Afrin respectively, removing the potential of either force threatening Turkish interests. Indeed, since the launch of the operation, the Idlib Shield forces have positioned themselves in the countryside south of Afrin, entering Atmeh (and its adjacent refugee camp), Qah, Salwa, Zarzitah, Qaturah, Mount Simeon and Mount Barakat. A Turkish delegation has also reportedly entered the town of Dar’at Izza for negotiations. In the immediate aftermath of the Turkish forces entering into Idlib, localised clashes were reported between the Idlib Shield forces and the HTS. These clashes have since come to an end and it would appear that the TSK has negotiated an agreement with the HTS. Clashes were also reported in the town of Armanaz where Ahrar al-Sham was ousted by the HTS and the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP). It is unclear if this development was linked to the wider developments in the region. The Turkish entry into Idlib has elicited a wide range of responses. Some 15 FSA factions that previously participated in Operation Euphrates Shield, as well as rebel groups such as Ahrar al-Sham and Harakat Nour al-Din al-Zinki have tentatively supported the Turkish entry even as they rejected cooperation with Russia. Hassan Soufan, the head of Ahrar al-Sham, in particular, reiterated Turkey’s position as a “trusted ally of the Revolution” even as it rejected Russian involvement. However, not all pro-Turkish factions have embraced the Turkish intervention. Shortly after the TSK entered Idlib, there were unconfirmed reports of an 850-fighter- strong unit within Faylaq al-Sham defecting into the HTS. The United States also expressed support for the operation. In a statement issued on Sunday, the US' Department of Defence said that “the Syrian regime has allowed northwest Syria to become a safe haven for al-Qaida terrorists that not only threaten the Syrian people and regional security, but also support international terrorist networks” and added that “the Nusra Front has publicly declared itself an al- Qaida affiliate – it shares al-Qaida's terrorist aims and agenda, not those of the Syrian people.” The pro-Turkish stance is notable given the rapidly-cooling relations between Ankara and Washington. For further information, contact Integrity UK on: [email protected] or +44 (0)20 3515 0057 The HTS, as predicted, completely denounced the intervention. In a statement published shortly after the initial Turkish entry into Idlib, the HTS claimed that Operation Euphrates Shield was corrupt and worked against the interests of Jihad and the Syrian Revolution. The HTS vowed to fight any groups entering Idlib, although never mentioned Turkey. Developments that took place since suggests that the HTS was not as willing to fight against the TSK as it claimed. However, numerous HTS militants on social media still claimed that they consider the TSK and the SAA one and the same. Furthermore on Monday, a number of Idlib-based Islamist rebels announced the formation of a new group, Ansar al-Furqan fi Bilad al-Sham. In its founding statement, the group vowed to fight against both the TSK and the FSA. A number of other figures in prominent rebel politics were more ambiguous. Prominent ex-HTS jihadist ideologue Abdullah al-Muhaysini stated that he was still debating his exact position on the matter with his peers. Meanwhile, Abu Amar al- Omar, the former leader of Ahrar al-Sham, criticised the HTS for using Turkish entry as a rallying point against his group, only to allow the entry of Turkish forces unchallenged anyways. With the intervention underway and the likelihood of anti-HTS operations high, it would appear that the Idlib-based Syrian General Conference is looking to establish itself as the legitimate civilian authority. On Saturday, the Conference appointed Mohammed al-Sheikh as the Chairman of what it called “the Government of Salvation.” Al-Sheikh was previously the President of the University of Idlib. His government will likely focus on gaining local and international influence from the internationally-recognised Syrian Interim Government. The Syrian Interim Government has refused to recognise the appointment of al-Sheikh. Amidst these developments, clashes across Syria continued. In addition to the scattered fighting resulting from the Idlib Shield intervention, the rebel-held Idlib Province has witnessed significant developments along its borders with Hama. In the town of Abu Dali, clashes between the SAA and the HTS continued despite the former’s claims on Friday that the rebel offensive had broken. By Saturday, the HTS offensive had renewed, resulting in the rebels instituting a siege on the SAA forces present. The rebels finally took the town of Sunday, as well as the surrounding villages of Musherifa and Tamat al-Khalifa. Since then, heavy shelling and airstrikes have continued. On Monday, the FSA-affiliated Free Idlib Army announced that it had shot down a Syrian SU-22 as it was “targeting civilians.” The HTS offensive, however, will likely be complicated by a new development. On Monday morning, the Islamic State (IS) announced that it was opening a new front in the rebel-held northeast Hama countryside, north of the Salamiya-Ithriya Highway, under the umbrella of its Abu Muhammad al-Adnani Offensive. The IS rapidly captured about a dozen villages in the area. The HTS has since launched a counterattack, reporting the recapture of the villages of Buyud, Andarin, Qasr Ibn Wardan and Muslokhah. The sudden appearance of the IS in what is considered the IS-free area of greater Idlib has led to widespread confusion among Syria observers, both pro and anti-government. There is common agreement that many of the IS militants came from the Uqayribat pocket in eastern Hama and it is known that large numbers of For further information, contact Integrity UK on: [email protected] or +44 (0)20 3515 0057 civilians have fled the SAA offensive in the region into Idlib. It is likely that a large number of militants were able to hide among the civilians, although the HTS has accused the SAA of deliberately transporting the IS militants into the rebel-held areas. Pro-government analysts, meanwhile, speculate that the militants escaped the Uqayribat pocket and infiltrated their way into the region. Indeed, reports of clashes between the SAA and a group of IS fugitives was reported on Sunday. Other speculation suggests that sleeper cells of IS militants who smuggled themselves from Raqqa were responsible or that the SAA had failed to secure the entirety of the Uqayribat pocket. Regardless, the incident represents one of the most puzzling developments in Syria over the recent months. The SAA in Deir ez-Zour Province continued to gain ground against the IS militants in Mayadin City over the weekend. The government forces reported the capture of the Mayadin Airport and the Shibli Farms on Saturday, subsequently announcing that they have captured the Kunafi Farms and the Mayadin Castle on Monday. It would appear that at this point, the government forces are looking to encircle the city before pushing into it. North of the Euphrates, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) has also gained further ground from the IS. On Saturday, the SDF announced capturing the village of as-Sawa northwest of Deir ez-Zour City on Saturday, although other sources suggest the village was merely besieged and clashes continue. The SDF also reported capturing the villages of Zughayr and Huwayj and pushing towards Muhemidia and Safirah Fawqani nearby. Clashes between the IS and the SDF continued in Raqqa City. On Sunday, the SDF spokesperson Talal Silo issued a statement, claiming that his group was getting ready to take over the last positions of the group, centred on the Raqqa City Stadium and the National Hospital, with reports of militants holding civilians in both areas. Furthermore on Monday, there were reports of some militants contacting local tribal leaders affiliated with the SDF in a bid to negotiate an exit from the city. If true, this could mean that the final militant surrender is near. For further information, contact Integrity UK on: [email protected] or +44 (0)20 3515 0057 .