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IDP Movement and Market Monitoring in Idleb

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IDP Movement and Market Monitoring in Idleb SYRIA IDP Movement and Market Monitoring in Idleb January 2018 Photo credits: CBR-TWG (2016) About REACH REACH is a joint initiative of two international non-governmental organizations - ACTED and IMPACT Initiatives - and the UN Operational Satellite Applications Programme (UNOSAT). REACH facilitates the development of information tools and products that enhance the capacity of aid actors to make evidence-based decisions in emergency, recovery and development contexts. All REACH activities are conducted through inter-agency aid coordination mechanisms. For more information, please visit our website www.reach-initiative.org or contact us directly at [email protected] and follow us on Twitter @REACH_info. About ISMI The IDP Situation Monitoring Initiative (ISMI) is an initiative of the Camp Coordination and Camp Management (CCCM) Cluster, implemented by REACH and supported by cluster members. Displacements are identified through an extensive key informant (KI) network, either from alerts initiated by KIs or from follow-up by enumerators. This approach allows for regular updates on IDP movements at the community level across sub-districts monitored by ISMI in northwest Syria. SYRIA IDP Movement and Market Monitoring Overview Report – January 2018 SUMMARY As of December 2017, the barrage of complex issues facing Syrian citizens continued to persist. Alongside the arrival of winter, market prices remained volatile, clashes between numerous armed actors and their negative humanitarian repercussions persisted, while mass movement of internally displaced people (IDPs) continued to increase.1 Combined, these issues may bring a myriad of problems for Syrian households, putting more people in need, , such as in Idleb governorate, a place that has been impacted by many of these challenges. To understand the ways in which markets cope with the adverse circumstances that violent protracted conflict brings, the Cash-Based Response Technical Working Group (CBR-TWG) and REACH conduct monthly monitoring of key markets in Syria. In addition, the IDP Situation Monitoring Initiative (ISMI), an initiative of the Camp Coordination and Camp Management (CCCM) Cluster, implemented by REACH and supported by CCCM cluster members, tracks IDP movement in northern Syria through bi-weekly and ad-hoc rounds of assessment using a combination of remote and direct data collection methodologies. This thematic assessment has brought together elements from ISMI and Market Monitoring (MM) to conduct a multi-sectoral analysis of IDP movement and market fluctuation trends within Idleb governorate, which has seen mass conflict-related displacements during the coverage period, resulting in a deteriorated humanitarian situation. This report provides an analysis of trends on IDP movement and price monitoring in 12 sub-districts (Ariha, Armanaz, Badama, Dana, Janudiyeh, Heish, Idleb, Kafr Nobol, Kafr Takjarim, Khan Shaykun, Maaret Tamsrin and Ma’arrat An Nu’man) in Idleb governorate, between 1 August and 30 November 2017. The 12 sub-districts were selected due to accessibility and consistency of data collected during the coverage period. Simultaneously, these sub-districts also have a higher and more consistent degree of ISMI and MM data collection coverage over time in comparison to other governorates. This ensures data reliability geographically and chronologically over a four- month period. Existing historical data was used from ISMI and MM at the lowest possible administrative level, the community and market, and was aggregated to the sub-district level. Key Findings • IDP flow patterns during the coverage period indicate a deteriorating humanitarian situation in the assessed sub-districts in Idleb governorate as a result of the ongoing clashes within and around the assessed sub-districts and the governorate. An analysis of IDP flows to assessed communities in Idleb governorate points to an increase of arrivals (76,605) by an average of 77% over the entire observation period, notably increasing by 126% between September and October. Markedly, Dana (29,911) and Ma’arrat An Nu’man sub-districts received the highest number of IDPs arriving to assessed communities during the coverage period. In total, the first two months during the observation period saw 30,842 arrivals to all assessed communities, increasing by 34% over the period. In contrast, the last two months saw an even greater increase up to 45,763 arrivals to all assessed communities, an increase by 70% between October and November. • An analysis of outward flows from assessed communities in Idleb governorate shows a total of 31,571 IDPs departing assessed communities during the coverage period, primarily from Dana sub-district (18,539). However, counter to inward movement, the number of departures from all assessed communities decreased over time, from 12,593 in the first month of observation, to 6,856 in the last month. This does not indicate nor assume that those who remained in the communities did so by choice, especially considering the security situation in and around Idleb governorate was worsening during the period, likely limiting the movement of many IDPs. • The wave of increasing arrivals (+77%) to assessed communities and relatively low change in the number of departures (+5%) from assessed communities within the governorate during the coverage period highlights the shrinking space in opposition areas in Idleb that IDPs could travel to. Due to the increase in the intensity of violence, resulting in higher civilian casualties, in and around the governorate, many 1 News Deeply, Syria deeply “Syrian Government Returns to Geneva” (December 2017) Retrieved from https://www.newsdeeply.com/syria/executive-summaries/2017/12/11. 1 IDP Movement and Market Monitoring Overview Report – January 2018 Syrian civilians were likely trapped within the governorate, with both limited and diminishing options of escaping to safer locations.2 • A November assessment of stock numbers estimated the resident community population in Idleb governorate to have been up to 1,178,057 people (approximately 7% of the total Syrian population), with the highest in Ma’arrat An Nu’man (248,294), Kafr Nobol (237,696), Idleb (137, 937) and Dana (132,720) sub- districts. Notably, a number of these same sub-districts with high resident populations were reported to be receiving increasingly large waves of arrivals to assessed communities such as Dana, Ma’arrat An Nu’man, and to a lesser extent, Idleb and Kafr Nobol sub-districts during the coverage period. • The prices for food items, NFIs, water and fuel fluctuated in all assessed sub-districts each month, noticeably peaking in October through November. Idleb (5,209 SYP), Dana (5,073), Badama (4,951 SYP), Khan Shaykun (4,849 SYP) and Armanaz (4,700 SYP) sub-districts saw some of the highest average food prices during the coverage period, while Ariha (3,793 SYP), Maaret Tamsrin (4,681 SYP) and Heish (4,319 SYP) sub-districts witnessed some of the lowest. The most notable price increase among the food items was for cucumbers which increased by 41% during the coverage period, which were out of season during the coverage period. Among the assessed NFIs, sanitary pads increased by 19% during the coverage period. Lastly, although water and fuel prices fluctuated from month-to-month, the change was minimal, ranging from -4% to 2%, respectively, during the coverage period. • An analysis of the relationship between the relative change of IDP arrivals and relative change in market prices in assessed communities found no evidence of a correlation between the two. An analysis of the relative change in IDP arrivals vs. the relative change in NFI prices across time did result in a statistically significant and strong relationship in Khan Shaykun sub-district; however, similar findings did not occur for the remaining assessed sub-districts. Overall, these results indicate no relationship between the variables examined in the accessed communities. • Dana and Ma’arrat An Nu’man sub-districts were identified as notable exceptions, due to significantly large influxes of IDP arrivals and relatively low average prices of food and NFIs. In addition, the price of food decreased over time by -2% in Dana and -3% in Ma’arrat An Nu’man sub-districts. The price of NFIs in Dana sub-district were also found to be decreasing over time (-9%). Although the price of NFIs in Ma’arrat An Nu’man sub-district were found to be increasing (+11%), they were still relatively low compared to the other assessed sub-districts. These findings may be attributed to the opening of the M5 highway in October which passes through Ma’arrat An Nu’man sub-district and the Bab al-Hawa humanitarian border crossing with Turkey, located in Dana sub-district. Both access routes provide means for humanitarian actors to distribute goods and supplies to various communities, camps and informal sites. Overall, despite the lack of evidence of any relationship between IDP movement and market prices in assessed communities in Idleb governorate, the pattern of increasing prices and displacement indicates worsening humanitarian conditions for IDPs, spontaneous returnees, and resident populations, likely signifying a strain on already limited resources for communities that are witnessing high unemployment and poverty rates and deteriorating health and security situations. Future analyses of these trends and their unique indicators would benefit from looking at availability of market goods, as well as an expanded geographic area. Furthermore, the
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