SYRIA
IDP Movement and Market Monitoring in Idleb
January 2018
Photo credits: CBR-TWG (2016) About REACH REACH is a joint initiative of two international non-governmental organizations - ACTED and IMPACT Initiatives - and the UN Operational Satellite Applications Programme (UNOSAT). REACH facilitates the development of information tools and products that enhance the capacity of aid actors to make evidence-based decisions in emergency, recovery and development contexts. All REACH activities are conducted through inter-agency aid coordination mechanisms. For more information, please visit our website www.reach-initiative.org or contact us directly at [email protected] and follow us on Twitter @REACH_info.
About ISMI
The IDP Situation Monitoring Initiative (ISMI) is an initiative of the Camp Coordination and Camp Management (CCCM) Cluster, implemented by REACH and supported by cluster members. Displacements are identified through an extensive key informant (KI) network, either from alerts initiated by KIs or from follow-up by enumerators. This approach allows for regular updates on IDP movements at the community level across sub-districts monitored by ISMI in northwest Syria.
SYRIA
IDP Movement and Market Monitoring Overview Report – January 2018
SUMMARY
As of December 2017, the barrage of complex issues facing Syrian citizens continued to persist. Alongside the arrival of winter, market prices remained volatile, clashes between numerous armed actors and their negative humanitarian repercussions persisted, while mass movement of internally displaced people (IDPs) continued to increase.1 Combined, these issues may bring a myriad of problems for Syrian households, putting more people in need, , such as in Idleb governorate, a place that has been impacted by many of these challenges.
To understand the ways in which markets cope with the adverse circumstances that violent protracted conflict brings, the Cash-Based Response Technical Working Group (CBR-TWG) and REACH conduct monthly monitoring of key markets in Syria. In addition, the IDP Situation Monitoring Initiative (ISMI), an initiative of the Camp Coordination and Camp Management (CCCM) Cluster, implemented by REACH and supported by CCCM cluster members, tracks IDP movement in northern Syria through bi-weekly and ad-hoc rounds of assessment using a combination of remote and direct data collection methodologies. This thematic assessment has brought together elements from ISMI and Market Monitoring (MM) to conduct a multi-sectoral analysis of IDP movement and market fluctuation trends within Idleb governorate, which has seen mass conflict-related displacements during the coverage period, resulting in a deteriorated humanitarian situation.
This report provides an analysis of trends on IDP movement and price monitoring in 12 sub-districts (Ariha, Armanaz, Badama, Dana, Janudiyeh, Heish, Idleb, Kafr Nobol, Kafr Takjarim, Khan Shaykun, Maaret Tamsrin and Ma’arrat An Nu’man) in Idleb governorate, between 1 August and 30 November 2017. The 12 sub-districts were selected due to accessibility and consistency of data collected during the coverage period. Simultaneously, these sub-districts also have a higher and more consistent degree of ISMI and MM data collection coverage over time in comparison to other governorates. This ensures data reliability geographically and chronologically over a four- month period. Existing historical data was used from ISMI and MM at the lowest possible administrative level, the community and market, and was aggregated to the sub-district level.
Key Findings
• IDP flow patterns during the coverage period indicate a deteriorating humanitarian situation in the assessed sub-districts in Idleb governorate as a result of the ongoing clashes within and around the assessed sub-districts and the governorate. An analysis of IDP flows to assessed communities in Idleb governorate points to an increase of arrivals (76,605) by an average of 77% over the entire observation period, notably increasing by 126% between September and October. Markedly, Dana (29,911) and Ma’arrat An Nu’man sub-districts received the highest number of IDPs arriving to assessed communities during the coverage period. In total, the first two months during the observation period saw 30,842 arrivals to all assessed communities, increasing by 34% over the period. In contrast, the last two months saw an even greater increase up to 45,763 arrivals to all assessed communities, an increase by 70% between October and November.
• An analysis of outward flows from assessed communities in Idleb governorate shows a total of 31,571 IDPs departing assessed communities during the coverage period, primarily from Dana sub-district (18,539). However, counter to inward movement, the number of departures from all assessed communities decreased over time, from 12,593 in the first month of observation, to 6,856 in the last month. This does not indicate nor assume that those who remained in the communities did so by choice, especially considering the security situation in and around Idleb governorate was worsening during the period, likely limiting the movement of many IDPs.
• The wave of increasing arrivals (+77%) to assessed communities and relatively low change in the number of departures (+5%) from assessed communities within the governorate during the coverage period highlights the shrinking space in opposition areas in Idleb that IDPs could travel to. Due to the increase in the intensity of violence, resulting in higher civilian casualties, in and around the governorate, many
1 News Deeply, Syria deeply “Syrian Government Returns to Geneva” (December 2017) Retrieved from https://www.newsdeeply.com/syria/executive-summaries/2017/12/11.
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Syrian civilians were likely trapped within the governorate, with both limited and diminishing options of escaping to safer locations.2
• A November assessment of stock numbers estimated the resident community population in Idleb governorate to have been up to 1,178,057 people (approximately 7% of the total Syrian population), with the highest in Ma’arrat An Nu’man (248,294), Kafr Nobol (237,696), Idleb (137, 937) and Dana (132,720) sub- districts. Notably, a number of these same sub-districts with high resident populations were reported to be receiving increasingly large waves of arrivals to assessed communities such as Dana, Ma’arrat An Nu’man, and to a lesser extent, Idleb and Kafr Nobol sub-districts during the coverage period.
• The prices for food items, NFIs, water and fuel fluctuated in all assessed sub-districts each month, noticeably peaking in October through November. Idleb (5,209 SYP), Dana (5,073), Badama (4,951 SYP), Khan Shaykun (4,849 SYP) and Armanaz (4,700 SYP) sub-districts saw some of the highest average food prices during the coverage period, while Ariha (3,793 SYP), Maaret Tamsrin (4,681 SYP) and Heish (4,319 SYP) sub-districts witnessed some of the lowest. The most notable price increase among the food items was for cucumbers which increased by 41% during the coverage period, which were out of season during the coverage period. Among the assessed NFIs, sanitary pads increased by 19% during the coverage period. Lastly, although water and fuel prices fluctuated from month-to-month, the change was minimal, ranging from -4% to 2%, respectively, during the coverage period.
• An analysis of the relationship between the relative change of IDP arrivals and relative change in market prices in assessed communities found no evidence of a correlation between the two. An analysis of the relative change in IDP arrivals vs. the relative change in NFI prices across time did result in a statistically significant and strong relationship in Khan Shaykun sub-district; however, similar findings did not occur for the remaining assessed sub-districts. Overall, these results indicate no relationship between the variables examined in the accessed communities.
• Dana and Ma’arrat An Nu’man sub-districts were identified as notable exceptions, due to significantly large influxes of IDP arrivals and relatively low average prices of food and NFIs. In addition, the price of food decreased over time by -2% in Dana and -3% in Ma’arrat An Nu’man sub-districts. The price of NFIs in Dana sub-district were also found to be decreasing over time (-9%). Although the price of NFIs in Ma’arrat An Nu’man sub-district were found to be increasing (+11%), they were still relatively low compared to the other assessed sub-districts. These findings may be attributed to the opening of the M5 highway in October which passes through Ma’arrat An Nu’man sub-district and the Bab al-Hawa humanitarian border crossing with Turkey, located in Dana sub-district. Both access routes provide means for humanitarian actors to distribute goods and supplies to various communities, camps and informal sites.
Overall, despite the lack of evidence of any relationship between IDP movement and market prices in assessed communities in Idleb governorate, the pattern of increasing prices and displacement indicates worsening humanitarian conditions for IDPs, spontaneous returnees, and resident populations, likely signifying a strain on already limited resources for communities that are witnessing high unemployment and poverty rates and deteriorating health and security situations. Future analyses of these trends and their unique indicators would benefit from looking at availability of market goods, as well as an expanded geographic area. Furthermore, the findings demonstrate the need for humanitarian actors to mitigate and reduce the challenges to accessing affordable goods for people in need in Idleb governorate, especially as the number of new IDP arrivals as well as individuals spontaneously returning and increases.
2 Middle East Eye. “Nowhere to go: Thousands displaced from Aleppo fear same fate in Idlib”. (October 2017). Retrieved from http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/Nowhere-to-go-Thousands-displaced-from-Aleppo-face-same-fate-in-Idlib- 1920340065.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS SUMMARY ...... 1 List of Acronyms ...... 3 Geographical Classifications ...... 3 List of Figures, Tables and Maps ...... 4 INTRODUCTION ...... 5 METHODOLOGY ...... 7 FINDINGS ...... 9 IDP Movement Overview ...... 10 Market Monitoring Overview ...... 15
Context ...... 15
Food Items ...... 15
Non-Food Items...... 19
Water and Fuel ...... 20
Relationships: Comparison of IDP Movements and Market Price Changes ...... 21 CONCLUSION ...... 23 ANNEXES ...... 24 Annex 1: List of Indicators ...... 24 Annex 2: List of Assessed Communities ...... 25
List of Acronyms AoG Armed Opposition Group CCCM Camp Coordination and Camp Management CC Collective Centre CFW Cash for Work CBR-TWG The Cash-Based Responses Technical Working Group (CBR-TWG) IDP Internally Displaced Person INGO International Non-Governmental Organisation IS Informal Settlement MM Market Monitoring NFI Non-Food Items RP Resident Population SR Spontaneous Return SYP Syrian Pounds WASH Water, Sanitation and Hygiene
Geographical Classifications Governorate An administration division of a country headed by a governor Sub-district A low-level administration division of a district administered by officials Community A neighbourhood, village, town, or city that is listed on the UNOCHA p-code list Camp A formal site for the shelter of IDPs, run by a CCCM member
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List of Figures, Tables and Maps Figure 1. IDP Movement and Market Monitoring Profile Assessment Design ...... 7 Figure 2. IDP Arrivals (from August – November 2017) ...... 10 Figure 3. IDP Departures (from August – November 2017)...... 11 Figure 4. Spontaneous Returns to community of origin (from October – November 2017) ...... 12 Figure 5. Resident Population (RP) sizes (from November 2017) ...... 12 Figure 6. Spread of cheapest reported food items ...... 14 Figure 7. Spread of cheapest reported NFIs, water and fuel (manually refined kerosene) ...... 14 Figure 8. Total Food price variations* ...... 16 Figure 9. Total NFI price variations...... 19 Figure 10. Relative change in IDP arrivals vs. relative change in food prices ...... 21 Figure 11. Relative change in IDP arrivals vs. relative change in NFI prices ...... 21 Figure 12. Relative change in IDP arrivals vs. relative change in the price of water and fuel (manually refined kerosene)...... 21
Table 1. Food item price changes ...... 15 Table 2. NFI price changes ...... 19 Table 3. Water and manually refined kerosene (cooking fuel) price changes ...... 20
Map 1. Community and market coverage ...... 5 Map 2. IDP Movement from August - November 2017 ...... 9 Map 3. Average sub-district Food Prices and percent change from August – November 2017 ...... 14 Map 4. Average NFI prices and percent change from August – November 2017 ...... 16
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INTRODUCTION Atma The humanitarian crisis in Syria has intensified in its severity and TURKEY breadth over the past year, exacerbating the already complex Sarmada O barrage of issues facing Syrian citizens. 2017 saw an additional afr Takharim Armanaz AAleppoleppo 1.8 million new displacements within Syria, now amounting to 6.1 Ma arrat 3 Tamasrin million internally displaced persons (IDPs). The conflict has left
herbet Idleb over 13.1 million people in need, including 5.6 million with acute Eljoz anudiyeh ID needs.4 As clashes prompt continued IDP movements, coping Ariha capacities diminish, and households struggle to meet basic needs, the humanitarian situation in Idleb governorate continues Maasaran LLattakiaattakia to rapidly deteriorate.5 Despite Idleb being designated as a “de- afr Nobol escalation-zone”, clashes have endured between the Syrian Heish Government offensive and armed opposition groups (AoGs).6 As Abdin the conflict persists, fighting in Idleb and the surrounding areas has been intensifying, worsening the already dire situation for civilians. Factors such as unemployment, price volatility and
TUR additional taxes on trucks traveling between government- HHamaama 05 10 20 Taartousrtous Kms controlled areas and Turkey are increasing the need for basic 7 NON ISMI Assessed Communities M Governorate Capital goods and services. IR Assessed Market Capital Urban Area ORD N M5 Highway Map 1. Community and market coverage To understand the ways in which markets cope with the adverse circumstances conflict brings, the Cash-Based Response Technical Working Group (CBR-TWG) and REACH conduct monthly monitoring (MM) of key markets in Syria. In addition, the IDP Situation Monitoring Initiative (ISMI), an initiative of the Camp Coordination and Camp Management (CCCM) Cluster, implemented by REACH and supported by CCCM cluster members, tracks IDP movement in northern Syria through bi-weekly and ad-hoc rounds of assessment using a combination of remote and direct data collection methodologies. This thematic assessment has brought together elements from ISMI and Market Monitoring (MM) to conduct a multi-sectoral analysis of IDP movement and market fluctuation trends within Idleb governorate.
Existing evidence on the relationship between displacement and markets in Idleb is limited. This hampers the ongoing response by humanitarian actors, especially when cash-based programming is considered to be a potential assistance modality. This report seeks to address this evidence gap by providing a profile of market dynamics over time and across sub-districts in Idleb governorate that have experienced IDP movements, to better understand displacement, market relationships and areas of vulnerability in need of humanitarian assistance.
Based on these information gaps, this thematic assessment’s research objectives fall into the following categories: • Flow patterns: provides an overview of IDP population flow patterns within the northern Syrian governorate of Idleb over a 4-month period, identifying both the scale and direction of IDP movements to inform how population flows have changed over time. • Stock numbers: total resident population (RP) within a sub-district at the end of the coverage period. • Market Monitoring: prices of goods such as food, non-food items (NFIs), water, and fuel that comprise the Survival Minimum Expenditure Basket (SMEB) over a 4 month period, to identify the baseline cost of resources prior to the first bi-weekly period of analysis, and the increase, decrease, or stagnation in the price of items for both IDPs and RPs. • Relationships: correlation of any negative or positive trends between the price of goods and the flow of IDPs arriving and departing Idleb governorate at the sub-district level over 4 months.
3 2018 Humanitarian Needs Overview (HNO). 4 Acute need refers to individuals facing severe forms of deprivation of their rights, security, and living conditions. 5 Ibid. 6 Syria Deeply Executive Summary (As of 11 December 2017). 7 UN Human Rights (OHCHR) Monthly Human Rights Digest: Syria (As of December 2017).
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This report provides a detailed description of the methodology and its selection, and subsequently outlines the key assessment findings, organised into the following sections:
1) Methodology 2) Findings a. IDP movement b. Food prices c. NFI prices d. Comparison of IDP movements and market prices 3) Conclusion
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METHODOLOGY This thematic assessment on IDP movement and market prices in Idleb governorate analysed historical data from two key sources; 1) ISMI; and 2) MM. ISMI data is collected at bi-weekly intervals by REACH, and MM is collected monthly via eight partners: Concern, GOAL, IRC, Mercy Corps, People in Need, REACH, Shafak and Solidarités International.
For ISMI, data is collected at the community level8 through Key Informants (KIs) to provide granular information on IDP movements, in order to inform humanitarian response. To ensure the accuracy of the data collected, KIs are selected that have specific knowledge of the community at hand. Similarly, MM collects minimum prices of food items, NFIs, fuel, and trucked water at the shop or vendor-level. Prices are collected in Syrian pounds (SYP) and are aggregated as a median minimum price at the community- or sub-district-levels.
The analysis was based on data covering the period between 1 August and 30 November 2017, collected in 135 ISMI communities and 13 markets in 12 subdistricts within Idleb governorate.9 The MM data was aggregated to the sub-district level to show overall trends affecting each sub-district. IDP movement and notable price fluctuations were highlighted geographically and chronologically by month. November estimates for RP were used because ISMI data is collected only when and where IDP movements occur, and thus month-month stock numbers would fluctuate not only because of arrivals and departures, but also because of shifts in coverage based on access and if movement occurred.
Figure 1. IDP Movement and Market Monitoring Profile Assessment Design
Market Monitoring Profile
Sub-district (IDP + RP)
IDP/SR IDP/RP Arrivals Departures
Data Collection Process
Community level data collected through ISMI between 1 August and 30 November 2017 was used to conduct an analysis of the flow of IDPs in Idleb governorate at the sub-district level. REACH enumerators based in Syria can access certain areas either directly or remotely, through both existing contacts and developing relationships with potential KIs. Enumerators conduct biweekly face-to-face and remote interviews with KIs to collect data on IDP movement. Data was triangulated with available reliable news outlets, International Non-Governmental Organisations (INGOs) and UN reports and real-time mapping sources during the coverage period.
Price data on essential goods collected by CBR-TWG members through the MM initiative was used to conduct analysis on the price of goods over time. CBR-TWG members use a single set of online survey forms to collect the data, which is uploaded to a central server. The REACH MM assessment team regularly compiles and cleans
8 This is the 4th administrative level of data collection according to OCHA, following governorate, district and sub district level collection. 9 Not all communities that were identified to have IDP movement had price data also collected; however, all movements in the markets that were assessed were tracked by ISMI.
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partners’ data, identifying the median monthly price of goods, cross-checking outliers and triangulating results with reliable sources on prices and key economic indicators. For this assessment, comparisons over time were made with available resources such as news reports and humanitarian publications. Most items selected for this assessment were part of the Survival Minimum Expenditure Basket (SMEB); however, not all standard SMEB items are included in this analysis due to varying data collection.
Data analysis plan
IDP flows were analysed through consolidating multiple sources of population figures and movements to produce best estimates of movement trends and patterns. MM data was simultaneously examined through an analysis of market prices at the community level to identify trends and patterns. Subsequently, a correlative analysis of trends took place by overlaying the patterns of migration flows with prices of goods over time.
The aggregation of individual variables in the two datasets before the analysis began was conducted as follows:
ISMI data collected at the community level: • Continuous variables (e.g.#, %): average across all communities, or summed where appropriate (e.g. total population figures). • Categorical variables (select one): most commonly selected option reported or proportion of KIs reporting across all communities. • Categorical variables (select multiple): top 3 or top 5 most commonly selected options with proportion of KIs reporting each option across all communities. MM data collected at the community level: • Continuous variables (e.g.#, %): community median of monthly SMEB goods costs (e.g. price of food, non- food, fuel and water), item price change and item percentage change. • Categorical variables (select one): binary variable on the availability or unavailability of goods in assessed markets.
Challenges and limitations
There are several challenges and limitations in this analysis, such as the congruence of data collected at the community level, the varying consistency of SMEB goods prices collected from month-to-month, limited Spontaneous Returns (SRs) and Resident Population (RP) data, and modifications to the survey during the start of period of observation. Individually, neither ISMI nor MM had 100% coverage in Idleb governorate during the period of analysis nor is the overlapping ISMI and MM coverage in Idleb governorate completely congruent. In addition, limited and restricted access in some markets resulted in a number of SMEB items median prices not being collected each month during the coverage period. To address these issues, measures were taken to mitigate and reduce challenges that may arise. Firstly, to address the issue of coverage consistency, an analysis of overlapping coverage was made at the sub-district level, to identify month-by-month which sub-districts have parity in data collection for both tools. Secondly, only goods in the SMEB that were consistently collected across the assessment period were used for the assessment to avoid numerous gaps in data and information presented. Data on SRs returning to their place of residence and RP departures started to be collected by ISMI in October. Therefore, information on SRs and RPs is limited and is only reported in this report for October and November, respectively. RP stock numbers were limited to November 2017 populations numbers to avoid inconsistency in numbers fluctuating due to changing coverage each bi-weekly period. Lastly, modifications to the ISMI and MM survey during the coverage period were considered, and thus, new data such as SRs was analysed separately, and significant outliers in data that may have been attributed to survey changes were excluded.
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FINDINGS The main findings from this assessment comprised of: • A series of IDP movement overviews on arrivals, departures, SRs and RPs. • A series of MM profiles on notable food prices, NFIs, fuel and water price fluctuations. • A comparison of IDP movement and the prices of food, NFIs, fuel and water during the coverage period. Map 2. IDP Movement from August - November 2017
A a ¯ ,
Atma , Daret A a TURKEY , ah , Dana , Sarmada A PP , afr Der an Deir assan Darhashan , , Atareb , ALEPPO Maaret le hwan Maaret le hwan , ,
Idleb Idleb , , ID isr Ash Shugur Ariha , , allisa ,
abilla Maar Shurin , ,
San ar ,
LATTAKIA
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As Saan ,
AMA HAMA
eirbat ,
05 10 20 30 40 Kms TARTOUS AN N IDP Departures IDP Arr va s M ighwa HOMS Ma or Displacement overnorate apital I A Movement , MS DAN apital rban Area , ,
9 IDP Movement and Market Monitoring Overview Report – January 2018
IDP Movement Overview Between 1 August and 30 November there were a total of 76,605 IDPs arriving to assessed communities in Idleb governorate during the coverage period comprised of individuals going to Dana (29,911), Ma’arrat An Nu’man (15,114), Maaret Tamsrin (6,180), Ariha (4,165), Idleb (4,143), Janudiyeh (3,645), Heish (3,485), Kafr Nobol (2,914), Armanaz (2,582), Khan Shaykun (1,951), Badama (1,536) and Kafr Takjarim (1,006) sub-districts (Figure 2). The number of total arrivals to assessed communities fluctuated each month during the coverage period. The areas covered witnessed 13,932 arrivals in August, ending with a significant influx of 28,094 IDPs in November. The surge in arrivals towards the close of the coverage period is likely attributed to the ongoing violent clashes in Idleb and surrounding governorates, amounting to escalations each month in airstrikes, heavy-weapon fire, improvised explosive devices and handheld firearm clashes.10
Figure 2. IDP Arrivals (from August – November 2017) 30000
Ma'arrat An Nu'man 25000 Maaret Tamsrin Khan Shaykun 20000 Kafr Takharim Kafr Nobol
15000 Janudiyeh Idleb
10000 Heish Dana Badama 5000 Armanaz Ariha 0 August September October November
The assessed communities in Idleb governorate saw a total of 31,571 IDP departures during the coverage period (Figure 3). Over half of the departures were from communities in Dana subdistrict (18,539), followed by Heish (4,004), Khan Shaykun (3,112) and Ma’arrat An Nu’man (2,615) sub-districts (Figure 3). Changes in the number of departures fluctuated within sub-districts across time, gradually decreasing in August through October, followed by an increase in November. Overall, August saw the greatest number of individuals being displaced (12,593), primarily from communities in Dana sub-district, while a reported 6,856 departures occurred in November.
10 2017 Syria HNO Report. Retrieved from https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/2017_Syria_hno_161205.pdf.
10 IDP Movement and Market Monitoring Overview Report – January 2018
Figure 3. IDP Departures (from August – November 2017) 14000
Ma'arrat An Nu'man 12000 Maaret Tamsrin Khan Shaykun 10000 Kafr Takharim
8000 Kafr Nobol Janudiyeh 6000 Idleb Heish 4000 Dana Badama 2000 Armanaz Ariha 0 August September October November
The comparison of arrivals and departures reveals that the number of IDPs arriving to assessed communities greatly outnumbers the number of individuals leaving communities by 45,034 people. This indicates that most of the IDPs who arrived in assessed communities, within the coverage period, remained in these same communities. This does not indicate nor assume that those who remained in the communities did so by choice, especially considering the fact that the security situation in and around the governorate was worsening, thus, likely limiting opportunities for IDPs to move to other locations within or around Idleb governorate.
Overall, the wave of increasing arrivals (+77%) to assessed communities and relatively low change in the number of departures (+5%) from assessed communities within the governorate during the coverage period highlights the shrinking space in opposition areas in Idleb that IDPs could travel to. Due to the increase in the intensity of violence, resulting in higher civilian casualties, in and around the governorate, many Syrian civilians were likely trapped within the governorate, with both limited and diminishing options of escaping to safer locations.11
Spontaneous Returns and Host Communities Between 1 October and 30 November 2017 there were a total of 4,516 SRs returning to their communities of origin across Idleb governorate. Out of 11 sub-districts that saw SRs arrive to their communities, 3 were sub- districts covered in this assessment, namely Maaret Tamsrin (114), Ariha (114) and Idleb (40). Almost half (2,174) of the SRs returned to communities in Jisr-Ash-Shugur sub-district, with most going to Jisr-Ash-Shugur community itself (1,254). Mhambal sub-district saw the second largest number of SRs (722), followed by Sanjar (690), Ehsem (388) and Saraqab (149) sub-districts. Over half of SRs during the coverage period returned from communities elsewhere in Idleb governorate. SRs arriving from locations outside Idleb came from As-Saan sub-district (445) in Hama governorate and Daret Azza (97) and Atareb (97) sub-districts in Aleppo governorate.
11 Ibid.
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Figure 4. Spontaneous Returns to community of origin (from October – November 2017)
Jisr-Ash-Shugur 2,174 Mhambal 772 Sanjar 690 Ehsem 388 Saraqab 149 Maaret Tamsrin 114 Ariha 114 Salqin 52 Idleb 40 Qourqeena 12 Harim 11
A November assessment of stock estimated the RP in Idleb governorate to have been 1,178,057 with the highest in Ma’arrat An Nu’man (248,294), Kafr Nobol (237,696), Idleb (137, 937) and Dana (132,720) sub-districts.12 Figure 5. Resident Population (RP) sizes (from November 2017)13
Mar An Nu'man 248,294
Kafr Nobol 237,696
Idleb 137,937
Dana 132,720
Maarat Tamsrin 104,772
Khan Shaykun 82,686
Kafr Takharim 57,000
Armanaz 50,333
Janudiyeh 33,541
Heish 20,447
Badama 13,058
12 Due to the nature of ISMI data collection for which data is only collected when IDP movements occur, the change in stock was not collected each month. 13 ISMI RP data as of November 2017.
12 Figure 6. Spread of cheapest reported food items14
Figure 7. Spread of cheapest reported NFIs, water and fuel (manually refined kerosene) 15
14 All food items are measured per kilo, except for bread which is measured per 8 pieces, cooking oil which is measured per litre, and salt which is measured per 500g. 15 Laundry soap is measured per kilo, dish soap per litre, bath soap per piece, sanitary pads per 10 pads, toothpaste per 100g, and fuel and water are measured per litre. IDP Movement and Market Monitoring Overview Report – January 2018
Map 3. Average sub-district food prices and percentage change from August – November 201716 ¯
TURKEY
ana 073 -2 A
ALEPPO afr a harim 4 1 Maaret amsrin 4 463 Armana 4 700 1 1
anudi eh d eb 20 4 743 1 -1
adama Ariha 4 1 3 7 3 2 1
LATTAKIA Ma arrat An Nu man 4 3 6 -3
afr Nobo 4 262 -6 eish 4 31 0
han ha un 4 4 1
0 5 10 20 Kms HAMA Average ota ood tem rice Arriva s igh a AN N ess than , 1 overnorate apital , 1 , 1 A TARTOUS , 1 , apital rban Area AN 1 , AMA ore than ,
16 Average cost and percentage change calculations for Ariha food prices exclude data on bread and chicken in November due to access issues, and calculations for Kafr Nobol exclude all November data due to access issues to assess the price of rice, bulgur, red lentils, ghee, sugar, tomato paste, oil, salt and bread.
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Market Monitoring Overview
Context Since the conflict began, Syria has lost over $16 billion worth of livestock, agricultural assets and crop production.17 Idleb governorate, an area known for its agricultural production has witnessed numerous attacks on its farmland, weakening agricultural recovery.18 The negative effects on the Syrian agricultural industry, in turn, impacts the Syrian economy and specifically Syrian citizens’ means of accessing necessary goods and services related to food, NFIs, fuel and water.19
Several economic indicators for Syria during the period of observation were high yet relatively stable considering the circumstances. The inflation rate in August 2017 was 47% and dropped to 43.2% in November.20 The food inflation rate was at 53.4% in October but similarly reduced in November to 46.6%.21 Syria’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the cost of a basket of goods recorded an increase in early 2016; however the CPI during the coverage period was unavailable.22 Lastly, the exchange rate for the Syrian pound (SYP) relative to the US dollar was at 515.45 on 1 August. This rate marginally fluctuated during the coverage period, rising to a high of 519.58 SYP in September, but remained approximately 515 SYP in October and November.23
Food Items Notable price trends were observed for six food items in Idleb governorate during the coverage period: bulgur, cucumbers, onions, rice, salt and tomatoes. The prices of these food items fluctuated considerably but to varying degrees in each of the sub-districts assessed. Furthermore, these price trends are likely a result of numerous factors related to the ongoing humanitarian crisis, such as access to the local economy, and besieged areas. Table 1. Food item price changes* Food item* September October November Bread (per 8 pieces) +6% +6% -5% Bulgur 0% +16% -3% Chicken -21% +5% +7% Cucumbers +29% +34% +60% Ghee -9% +6% -2% Cooking Oil (per L) -2% -3% +1% Onions +13% -3% +12% Potatoes +5% -1% -1% Rice -9% +17% -9% Red Lentils -3% +1% -5% Salt (per 500g) -54% +75% -22% Sugar -8% +1% -8% Tomatoes +7% -6% +11% Tomato Paste -12% +5% +2% *Food Item price changes were calculated by taking the cheapest price for the food items in a market, aggregating the price up to the sub-district level, and then calculating the average price across the assessed sub-districts. The price changes were determined by calculating the percentage change between each month to identify the relative change compared to the month prior. 17 Food and Agriculture Organization. (May 2017). Syria Crop Calendar. Retrieved from http://www.fao.org/emergencies/resources/maps/detail/en/c/889469/. 18 Ibid. 19 The World Bank in Syrian Arab Republic Overview. 20 Trade Economics: Syria Inflation. (As of December 2017). 21 Trade Economics: Syria Food Inflation. (As of December 2017) (August and September rates were unavailable). 22 CPI: food and beverages, housing, apparel, transportation, healthcare, education, communication, and other goods and services. 23 Trade Economics: Syrian Pound. (As of December 2017).
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Figure 8. Total Food price variations* 6000 Ariha Armanaz 5500 Badama Dana 5000 Heish Idleb 4500 Janudiyeh Kafr Nobol 4000 Kafr Takharim Khan Shakyun 3500 Maaret Tamsrin Ma'arrat An Nu'man 3000 Mean Average August September October November *Prices for Kafr Nobol sub-district in November are not included due to access constraints during the data collection period. Protein Items Chicken was the highest costing food item during the coverage period, with the highest average prices identified in communities in Kafr Takharim (875 SYP/kg), Badama (869 SYP/kg), Janudiyeh (844 SYP/kg) and Idleb (744 SYP/kg) sub-districts. Furthermore, each of these prices exceeded the sub-district average cost of 717 SYP/kg for chicken. The trends in the price of red lentils during the coverage period showed little variation. However, the average price for red lentils was highest in Khan Shaykun (400 SYP/kg), Dana (381 SYP/kg) and Armanaz (356 SYP/kg) sub-districts, which were also all above the governorate average of 308 SYP/kg.
Vegetables The trend in the cost of tomatoes marginally oscillated during the coverage period, rising (+7% and +11%, respectively) and falling (-6%) in price from month-to-month (Table 1). However, the highest average prices in Idleb (188 SYP/kg), Badama (169 SYP/kg), Janudiyeh (166 SYP/kg) and Maaret Tamsrin (166 SYP/kg) sub-districts did not deviate far from the average governorate price (161 SYP/kg).
Tomato paste was the third most expensive food item in the governorate during the coverage period, but did notably drop by -12% in September, attributed to declines in price in Dana (-200 SYP/kg), Badama (-150 SYP/kg), and Ariha (-50 SYP/kg) during the same month. The highest average costs for tomato paste during the coverage period were recorded in communities in Idleb (794 SYP/kg), Janudiyeh (706 SYP/kg), Armanaz (663 SYP/kg), Badama (663 SYP/kg) and Dana (663 SYP/kg) sub-districts, which also all exceeded the sub-district average price of 620 SYP/kg.
The price of onions increased during the coverage period from 78 SYP/kg in August to 96 SYP/kg in November; however, they were identified as the second cheapest food item during the coverage period, on average. Furthermore, Khan Shaykun (114 SYP/kg), Badama (110 SYP/kg), Dana (100 SYP/kg) and Janudiyeh (100 SYP/kg) sub-districts had the highest priced onions, on average, during the coverage period, yet only marginally deviated from the governorate average cost (87 SYP/kg). The average price for cucumbers increased each month despite the harvest for cucumbers taking place in June through July, prior the coverage period. The most notable increase in cost for cucumbers occurred in November, where the average price climbed from 184 SYP/kg to 295 SYP/kg (+60%) (Table 1).24 Notably high sub-district prices, that exceeded the governorate average
24 Food and Agriculture Organization. (May 2017). Syria Crop Calendar. Retrieved from http://www.fao.org/emergencies/resources/maps/detail/en/c/889469/.
16 IDP Movement and Market Monitoring Overview Report – January 2018
(181 SYP/kg), were observed in Maaret Tamsrin (201 SYP/kg) and Heish (200 SYP/kg) sub-districts, during the coverage period.
Grains The trend in the cost of rice showed marginal fluctuation during the coverage period and varied in the interquartile range from 250 SYP/kg to 450 SYP/kg (Figure 6). The most notable price change in rice occurred in October, attributed to price increases in Badama (+290 SYP/kg), Armanaz (+200 SYP/kg) and Kafr Takharim (290 SYP/kg) between September and October (Table 1). Furthermore, the average prices of rice in Khan Shaykun (463 SYP/kg), Kafr Nobol (450 SYP/kg), and Heish (450 SYP/kg) sub-districts were the highest in Idleb governorate, and also above the governorate average (357 SYP/kg). The price of bulgur notably increased in October, likely attributed to price increases observed in Armanaz (+100 SYP/kg), Khan Shaykun (+100 SYP/kg) Badama (+75 SYP/kg) and Kafr Takharim (+75 SYP/kg) sub-districts between September and October. In addition, bulgur was one of three food items to be increasing in price, above a rate of 5%, during the coverage period (Figure 6).
Other Food Items Bread prices did not significantly deviate in cost between August and November. The highest costs for bread were recorded in communities in Khan Shaykun (188 SYP/8 pieces) and Dana (175 SYP/ 8 pieces) sub-districts, which only marginally exceeded the governorate average price (140 SYP/ 8 pieces). The relatively stable price may be attributed to subsidies put in place by the Syrian government and the collection of the necessary items for making bread taking place during and a month prior to the period of observation.25 However, according to the World Food Programme (WFP), during the coverage period, Idleb governorate was recorded as having the highest prices for bread in August through November, relative to other governorates.26
The average price of ghee showed little change in cost during the coverage period; however, notably higher prices were identified in Idleb (875 SYP/kg), Dana (875 SYP/kg) and Ma’aarrat An Nu’man (875 SYP/kg) sub- districts, which were all considerably above the average Idleb governorate cost (703 SYP/kg).
The cheapest price of potatoes (100 SYP/kg) was not considerably different from the average governorate price (141 SYP/kg) during the coverage period. The sub-districts with the highest average prices for potatoes were Idleb (162 SYP/kg), Badama (155 SYP/kg) and Khan Shaykun (149 SYP/kg). The relatively consistent price of potatoes during the coverage period may likely be attributed to potatoes being harvested in June through August, during the start of the coverage period.27
Sugar was the only food item where the price decreased by over 5% during the coverage period (Figure 6), with the most notable price drop occurring in Kafr Nobol sub-district (-120 SYP/kg) in September. This decline was also observed across Syria and may be associated with the globally declining price of refined sugar during this period.28
The average price of salt notably changed each month, falling by 54% in September and rising by 75% in October (Table 1); even so, salt was the cheapest food item during the coverage period with a relatively narrow interquartile range (Figure 6). Markedly, the highest average prices for salt during the coverage period were in Janudiyeh (125 SYP/500g), Idleb (125 SYP/500g) and Badama (121 SYP/500g) sub-districts.
The trend in the cost of cooking oil did not notably fluctuate in price during the coverage period, with Khan Shaykun sub-district (633 SYP/kg) having the highest average cost and exceeded the governorate average (548 SYP/L).
25 Ibid. 26 WFP. VAM food security analysis. Syria Country Office. (August – September 2017). Issues 33 – 36. 27 Food and Agriculture Organization. (May 2017). Syria Crop Calendar. Retrieved from http://www.fao.org/emergencies/resources/maps/detail/en/c/889469/. 28 Wernau, J. (8 December 2017). Sugar Selloff Extends into Fourth Session. Fox Business. Retrieved from http://www.foxbusiness.com/features/2017/09/18/sugar-prices-fall-on-supply-glut-concerns0.html.
17 IDP Movement and Market Monitoring Overview Report – January 2018
Map 4. Average NFI prices and percentage change from August – November 201729 ¯
TURKEY
ana , 9 A
ALEPPO afr akharim , 9
aaret amsrin Armana , 2 , 9
I anudiyeh , Idleb , 9
adama Ariha , 2 , 2
LATTAKIA a arrat An Nu man , 9
afr Nobol , eish 92
han haykun ,
0 5 10 20 Kms HAMA NFI Average rice I Arriva s igh ay AN N ess than .2 overnorate Capital ,2 , I A TARTOUS , , Capital rban Area AN , AMA ore than ,
29 Calculations for average price and percentage change for toothpaste in November and bath soap is excluded for Ariha. In addition, calculations for NFI prices exclude bath soap in October due to their unavailability in markets.
18 IDP Movement and Market Monitoring Overview Report – January 2018
Non-Food Items Figure 9. Total NFI price variations 2500
Ariha Armanaz 2000 Badama Dana
1500 Heish Idleb Janudiyeh 1000 Kafr Nobol Kafr Takharim Khan Shakyun 500 Maaret Tamsrin Ma'arrat An Nu'man Mean Average 0 August September October November
Soap Dishwashing soap notably fluctuated in price during the coverage period with the highest increase recorded in October by +111 SYP (+47%) and greatest drop in November by -75 SYP (-22%) (Table 2). The highest average prices for dishwashing soap were identified in Maaret Tamsrin (469 SYP), Badama (453 SYP), Dana (325 SYP) and Khan Shaykun (325 SYP) sub-districts. Furthermore, dishwashing soap increased in cost, on average, above 5% during the coverage period (Figure 7). Due to access constraints, bath soap was unable to be collected in numerous communities, therefore, only the change from August to September was included, which identified a 15% drop in price between the two months. Markedly, the price for bath soap in November revealed an increase by +45 SYP during the coverage period in comparison to the price in September (107 SYP).
The trend in the price of laundry soap oscillated each month (Table 2). The highest average prices were recorded in Badama (645 SYP), Maaret Tamsrin (588 SYP) and Janudiyeh (516 SYP) sub-districts during the coverage period. Other Sanitation and Hygiene Items The average price of sanitary pads considerably fluctuated in price with a significant increase in price in November by +159 SYP. The spike in price in November is primarily attributed to the increase in prices in communities in Ariha (1,200 SYP/10 pads), Ma’arrat An Nu’man (850 SYP/10 pads), Kafr Nobol (800 SYP/10 pads) and Idleb (550 SYP/10 pads) sub-districts in November, which were all well above the average governorate cost (322 SYP/10 pads). Furthermore, these same sub-districts had the highest average prices for sanitary pads during the coverage period. Table 2. NFI price changes* NFIs September October November Dishwashing soap (per L) +2% +47% -22% Bath soap** (per piece) -15% NA* NA Laundry soap (per kg) +8% -29% +28% Sanitary pads (per 10 pads) -12% +14% +55% Toothpaste (per 100g) -12% +34% -1%
19 IDP Movement and Market Monitoring Overview Report – January 2018
*NFI price changes were calculated by taking the cheapest price for NFIs in a market, aggregating the price to the sub-district level, and then calculating the average price across the assessed sub-districts. The price changes were calculated by calculating the percentage change between each month, to identify the relative change compared to the month prior. **It was not possible to collect the price of bath soap due to resource and access issues in October. Therefore, the average change in price was not included for October and November.
Water and Fuel Table 3. Water and manually refined kerosene (cooking fuel) price changes* Water and cooking fuel September October November Manually refined kerosene (per L) -1% +40% -33% Water (per L) -15% +8% -4% *Water and cooking fuel price changes were calculated by taking the cheapest price for water and manually refined kerosene in a market, aggregating the price to the sub-district level, and then calculating the average price across the assessed sub-districts. The price changes were analysed by calculating the percent change between each month, to identify the relative change compared to the month prior. The price of water and manually refined kerosene (used for cooking) fluctuated from month-to-month during the coverage period, both rising and falling in price in congruence with one another during the same months to varying degrees. The largest spike in the price of cooking fuel was recorded in October in communities in Dana Ma’arrat An Nu’man (+700 SYP/per L), Dana (+500 SYP/per L), Maaret Tamsrin (+500 SYP/per L), Kafr Nobol (+425 SYP/per L) and Heish (+400 SYP/per L) sub-districts. This spike and subsequent drop in price, especially for fuel may be a result of limited access due to widespread insecurity, blocked routes (such as highway M5 in the first half of the coverage period) and the presence of checkpoints and security threats. Notwithstanding, the opening of humanitarian corridors such as the M5 highway in the latter months of the coverage period may be an explanation for the drop in price in November. However, this is unconfirmed from the data collected as part of the ISMI and MM projects.
20 IDP Movement and Market Monitoring Overview Report – January 2018
Relationships: Comparison of IDP Movements and Market Price Changes Figure 10. Relative change in IDP arrivals vs. relative change in food prices 3% Badama Khan Shaykun 2% Ariha 1% Armanaz Kafr Takharim Janudiyeh 0% Heish -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% -1% Idleb -2% Dana Ma'arrat An Nu'man -3% Maaret Tamsrin Regression analysis comparing relative change of IDPs vs. relative -4% food price change results: 2 2 Relative Change in IPD Arrivals -5% Kafr Nobol R = 0.025, R (excluding outliers) = 0.058 -6% p-value= 0.6, p-value (excluding outliers) = 0.5 *Outliers are Dana and Ma’arrat An Nu’man sub-districts -7% Relative Change in Food Prices
Figure 11. Relative change in IDP arrivals vs. relative change in NFI prices 40% 35% Kafr Nobol Regression analysis comparing relative change of IDPs vs. relative Ariha NFI price change results: 30% R2= 0.053, R2 (excluding outliers) = 0.08 25% p-value= 0.47, p-value (excluding outliers) = 0.43 *Outliers are Dana and Ma’arrat An Nu’man sub-districts 20% Heish 15% Armanaz Kafr Takharim Maaret Tamsrin 10% Ma'arrat An Nu'man 5% Badama Idleb Khan Shaykun 0% Janudiyeh
Relative Change in IDP Arrivals -100% -5% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% -10% Dana -15% Relative Change in NFI prices
Figure 12. Relative change in IDP arrivals vs. relative change in the price of water and fuel (manually refined kerosene) 90% Ariha Regression analysis comparing relative change of IDPs vs. relative 80% NFI price change results: 70% R2= 0.015, R2 (excluding outliers) = 0.018 Idleb p-value= 0.7, p-value (excluding outliers) = 0.71 60% *Outliers are Dana and Ma’arrat An Nu’man sub-districts 50% 40% Badama 30% Ma'arrat An Nu'man 20%
Relative Change in IDP Arrivals Dana 10% Heish Kafr Nobol Armanaz Kafr Takharim Maaret Tamsrin 0% Khan Shaykun Janudiyeh -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% Relative Change in the Price of Water and Fuel (manually Refined Kerosene)
21 IDP Movement and Market Monitoring Overview Report – January 2018
An analysis of the relative changes in IDP arrivals and market prices across the 12 sub-districts found no evidence of a correlation between the two. An individual analysis of the relative change of IDP arrivals and the relative change in the market prices of the three item groups (food (Figure 10), NFIs (Figure 11) and manually refined kerosene and water (Figure 12)) revealed no correlation between the two.
An analysis of the relative change in IDP arrivals vs. the relative change in NFI prices across time did result in a statistically significant and strong relationship in Khan Shaykun sub-district; however, similar findings did not occur for the remaining assessed sub-districts. Overall, these results indicate no relationship between the variables examined in the accessed communities.
Dana sub-district and Ma’arrat An Nu’man sub-district were identified as notable outliers, due to significantly large influxes of IDP arrivals and relatively low average prices of food items. Additional analysis was conducted with absolute numbers, including and excluding the outliers; however, the findings did not produce any evidence of a relationship.
“Bab al-Hawa opening again means the prices of goods are lower...”30
The price of food in Dana sub-district may be a partial result of humanitarian assistance (for example, coming from the UN Bab al-Hawa border crossing operation located in Dana sub-district), which delivers food baskets, shelter/NFIs kits, water sanitation and hygiene (WASH), health and educational kits and nutrition spreads to communities and camps located within the sub-district and northern Syria as a whole.31 Similarly, Ma’arrat An Nu’man sub-district witnessed lower food prices than seven other governorates during the coverage period.32 The M5 highway passes directly through Ma’arrat An Nu’man sub-district, which serves as a vital access point for humanitarian aid for delivery of food items to people in need (Map 3). The second half of the coverage period was the first time in over four years that humanitarian aid trucks were able to access both AoGs and government held areas along the M5 highway, following the opening of the road during the coverage period, a route previously blocked, restricting aid delivery and public transportation. Therefore, the re-opening of the M5 highway during the coverage period granted the transportation of goods and aid to people in need.
30 Edwards M, Hamou A, Ibrahim M. Syria Direct. Ankara re-opens Idlib border crossings as Turkish soldiers build presence in northern Syria. (18 October 2017). Retrieved from http://syriadirect.org/news/ankara-reopens-idlib-border-crossing-as- turkish-soldiers-build-presence-in-northern-syria/. 31 UN OCHA Syrian Arab Republic: UN cross border operations under UNSC resolutions 2165/2191/2258/2332. 32 CCCM Cluster Syrian Arab Republic: IDP arrivals from northern Hama and Southern Idleb (As of 26 November 2017).
22 CONCLUSION This report was based on a trends analysis of 12-sub-districts in Idleb governorate looking at IDP flows and markets. It analysed IDP movements and the market prices of food items, NFIs, fuel and water between August and November 2017, examining indicators monitored by ISMI and MM projects.
An analysis of IDP flows to assessed communities in Idleb governorate points to both a large number of displacements (76,605) and an increase in displacements over the observation period, as a result of violent clashes between numerous armed groups in and around the assessed sub-districts. Markedly, Dana (29,911) and Ma’arrat An Nu’man (15,114) sub-districts received the highest number of IDPs arriving to assessed communities during the coverage period. In total, the first month during the observation period saw 13,932 arrivals to assessed communities and the last month saw over double the number of IDPs arriving, increasing to 28,094 arrivals to assessed communities. An analysis of outward flows from assessed communities in Idleb governorate shows a total of 31,571 IDPs departing assessed communities during the coverage period, primarily from Dana sub-district (18,539). However, counter to inward movement, the number of departures from assessed communities decreased over time, from 12,593 IDP departures in the first month, to 6,856 in the last month.
The large change in arrivals (+77%) and low change in departures (+5%) from assessed communities within the governorate during the coverage period highlights the shrinking space in opposition areas that IDPs could travel to. Due to the increase in the intensity of violence, in and around the governorate, many civilians were likely trapped within the governorate, with limited options of escaping to safer areas.
A November assessment of stock numbers estimated the resident community population in Idleb governorate to have been up to 1,178,057 people (approximately 7% of the Syrian population), with the highest in Ma’arrat An Nu’man (248,294), Kafr Nobol (237,696), Idleb (137, 937) and Dana (132,720) sub-districts. Notably, a number of these same sub-districts with high resident populations were reported to be receiving increasingly large waves of arrivals to assessed communities such as Dana, Ma’arrat An Nu’man, and to a lesser extent, Idleb and Kafr Nobol sub-districts during the coverage period.
The prices of food, NFIs, water and fuel fluctuated in all assessed sub-districts each month, noticeably peaking in October through November. Idleb (5,209 SYP), Dana (5,073), Badama (4,951 SYP), Khan Shaykun (4,849 SYP) and Armanaz (4,700 SYP) sub-districts saw some of the highest average food prices during the coverage period, while Ariha (3,793 SYP), Maaret Tamsrin (4,681 SYP) and Heish (4,319 SYP) sub-districts witnessed some of the lowest. The most notable price increase among the food items was for cucumbers which increased by 41% during the coverage period. Among the assessed NFIs, sanitary pads increased by 19% during the coverage period. Lastly, although water and fuel prices fluctuated from month-to-month, the change was minimal, ranging from -4% to 2%, respectively, during the period of observation.
An analysis of the relationship between the relative change of IDP arrivals and relative change in market prices in assessed communities resulted in no correlation. Dana and Ma’arrat An Nu’man sub-districts were identified as notable outliers, due to significantly large influxes of IDP arrivals and relatively low average prices for food items. The price of NFIs in Dana sub-district were found to be decreasing over time (-9%). Although the price of NFIs in Ma’arrat An Nu’man sub-district were found to be increasing (+11%), they were still relatively low compared to the other assessed sub-districts. These findings may be attributed to the opening of the M5 highway in October which passes through Ma’arrat An Nu’man sub-district and the Bab al-Hawa humanitarian border crossing with Turkey, located in Dana sub-district. Both access routes provide means for humanitarian actors to distribute goods and supplies to various communities, camps and informal sites.
Overall, as the individual ISMI and MM assessments continue, efforts to expand coverage both within the governorate and in surrounding governorates will provide valuable information on IDP flows and market prices in new areas. At the same time, continued coverage in the same sub-districts and their respective communities and markets would provide a means to expand into longer-term trends analyses of relationships between conflict, IDP movement, and markets in Syria and would benefit from looking at availability of market goods. This will assist in granting humanitarian actors a greater understanding of the linkage between the sectors, in an effort to better respond to people’s needs, as the situation in Syria continues to evolve.
IDP Movement and Market Monitoring Overview Report – January 2018
ANNEXES Annex 1: List of Indicators
Research Question Indicator Dataset How many IDPs have arrived to an Idleb Total number of recent IDPs at the community ISMI governorate sub-district? level. Where have IDPs arrived from? Last place of departure for IDPs. ISMI How many SRs have spontaneously Total number of SRs at the community level. ISMI returned to their sub-district of origin?
Where have SRs returned from? Last place of departure for SRs. ISMI How many IDPs have departed an Idleb Total number of recent IDP departures at the ISMI governorate sub-district? community level. How many RPs have departed an Idleb Total number of recent RP departures at the ISMI governorate sub-district? community level. What is the stock (total population) of DPs in IDP population at the community level. ISMI Idleb governorate sub-district? What is the stock (total population) of RPs in RP population at the community level. ISMI Idleb governorate sub-district? What is the price of SMEB food items Price (Syrian pounds), quantity, availability and MM between September and November 2017 in brand of food items such as bread, bulgur (wheat), Idleb governorate? chicken, dried pulses (grains/seeds), eggs, fresh vegetables, ghee (butter), rice, salt, sugar and tomato paste at the community level. What is the price of SMEB NFI items Price (Syrian pounds), quantity and brand of NFI MM between September and November 2017 in items such as sanitary pads and toothpaste at the
Idleb governorate? community level. What is the price of fuel between September Price and availability of manually refined kerosene MM and November 2017 in Idleb governorate? such (cooking gas) at the community level. What is the price of water between Price (rates), quality (chlorinated or not), source, MM September and November 2017 in Idleb truck capacity and availability of water at the governorate? community level.
24 IDP Movement and Market Monitoring Overview Report – January 2018
Annex 2: List of Assessed Communities
_
district district ernorate - - rict code code - - code code Governorate Gov p - District Dist _p Sub Sub _p Community Community_ p - Assessed Market Yes/No Idleb SY07 Idleb SY0700 Idleb SY070000 Idleb C3871 Yes Idleb SY07 Idleb SY0700 Idleb SY070000 Northern Ora C3874 No Idleb SY07 Idleb SY0700 Idleb SY070000 Falyun C3877 No Idleb SY07 Idleb SY0700 Maaret SY070005 Hazano C3944 No Tamsrin Idleb SY07 Idleb SY0700 Maaret SY070005 Ma'arrat C3947 Yes Tamsrin Tamasrin Idleb SY07 Idleb SY0700 Maaret SY070005 Maaret C3950 No Tamsrin Elekhwan Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Ma'arrat SY070200 Maar Shurin C3978 No An Nu'man Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Ma'arrat SY070200 Maar C3983 No An Shamarin Nu'man Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Ma'arrat SY070200 Ma'arrat An C3985 No An Nu'man Nu'man Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Khan SY070201 Khan C3987 No Shaykun Shaykun Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Kafr SY070203 Sfuhen C4054 No Nobol Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Kafr SY070203 Sheikh C4055 No Nobol Mustafa Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Kafr SY070203 Kafr Oweid C4062 No Nobol Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Heish SY070205 Tah C4099 No Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Heish SY070205 Heish C4105 Yes Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Heish SY070205 Armanaya C4106 No Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Heish SY070205 Moqa C4109 No Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Heish SY070205 Kafrsajna C4110 No Idleb SY07 Harim SY0703 Dana SY070301 Hezreh - C4120 No Hezri Idleb SY07 Harim SY0703 Dana SY070301 Sarmada C4121 Yes Idleb SY07 Harim SY0703 Dana SY070301 Tal C4122 No Elkaramej Idleb SY07 Harim SY0703 Dana SY070301 Selwa C4123 No Idleb SY07 Harim SY0703 Dana SY070301 Termanin C4125 No Idleb SY07 Harim SY0703 Dana SY070301 Dana C4126 No Idleb SY07 Harim SY0703 Dana SY070301 Aqrabat C4127 No Idleb SY07 Harim SY0703 Dana SY070301 Deir Hassan C4129 No - Darhashan Idleb SY07 Harim SY0703 Dana SY070301 Qah C4131 No Idleb SY07 Harim SY0703 Dana SY070301 Kafr Deryan C4132 No
25 IDP Movement and Market Monitoring Overview Report – January 2018
Idleb SY07 Harim SY0703 Kafr SY070303 Jadeen C4156 No Takharim Idleb SY07 Harim SY0703 Kafr SY070303 Kafr C4157 Yes Takharim Takharim Idleb SY07 Harim SY0703 Kafr SY070303 Kuku - Ein C4160 No Takharim Eljaj Idleb SY07 Harim SY0703 Armanaz SY070305 Ghafar C4175 No Idleb SY07 Harim SY0703 Armanaz SY070305 Armanaz C4176 Yes Idleb SY07 Harim SY0703 Armanaz SY070305 Sheikh C4179 No Yousef Idleb SY07 Harim SY0703 Armanaz SY070305 Biret C4180 No Armanaz Idleb SY07 Harim SY0703 Armanaz SY070305 Baliya C4181 No Idleb SY07 Harim SY0703 Armanaz SY070305 Dweila C4182 No Idleb SY07 Harim SY0703 Armanaz SY070305 Kuwaro - Um C4183 No Elriyah Idleb SY07 Harim SY0703 Armanaz SY070305 Milis C4184 No Idleb SY07 Harim SY0703 Armanaz SY070305 Kabta C4185 No Idleb SY07 Jisr- SY0704 Badama SY070401 Baksariya C4223 No Ash- Shugur Idleb SY07 Jisr- SY0704 Badama SY070401 Armala C4227 No Ash- Shugur Idleb SY07 Jisr- SY0704 Badama SY070401 Hanbushiyeh C4228 No Ash- Shugur Idleb SY07 Jisr- SY0704 Badama SY070401 Ein El-Bayda C4229 No Ash- Shugur Idleb SY07 Jisr- SY0704 Badama SY070401 Ramliyeh C4234 No Ash- Shugur Idleb SY07 Jisr- SY0704 Janudiyeh SY070403 Janudiyeh C4255 Yes Ash- Shugur Idleb SY07 Jisr- SY0704 Janudiyeh SY070403 Qanniyeh C4260 No Ash- Shugur Idleb SY07 Jisr- SY0704 Janudiyeh SY070403 Foz - Zuf C4263 No Ash- Shugur Idleb SY07 Jisr- SY0704 Janudiyeh SY070403 Jdidet Eljisr C4265 No Ash- Shugur Idleb SY07 Jisr- SY0704 Janudiyeh SY070403 Hamama - C4267 No Ash- Kafr Debbin Shugur Idleb SY07 Ariha SY0705 Ariha SY070500 Sarja C4273 No Idleb SY07 Ariha SY0705 Ariha SY070500 Shinan C4275 No Idleb SY07 Ariha SY0705 Ariha SY070500 Ariha C4278 Yes Idleb SY07 Ariha SY0705 Ariha SY070500 Kafraziba C4282 No
26 IDP Movement and Market Monitoring Overview Report – January 2018
Idleb SY07 Harim SY0703 Dana SY070301 Bab El Hawa C6389 No Idleb SY07 Jisr- SY0704 Badama SY070401 Alzayneya Other No Ash- Shugur Idleb SY07 Harim SY0703 Dana SY070301 Atma camp C4130 Yes Idleb SY07 Idleb SY0700 Idleb SY070000 Nayrab C3867 No Idleb SY07 Idleb SY0700 Idleb SY070000 Ein Shib C3868 No Idleb SY07 Idleb SY0700 Idleb SY070000 Mastumeh C3872 No Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Ma'arrat SY070200 Tqana C3958 No An Nu'man Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Ma'arrat SY070200 Western Deir C3968 No An Nu'man Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Ma'arrat SY070200 Abu Makki C3973 No An Nu'man Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Ma'arrat SY070200 Telamnas C3974 No An Nu'man Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Khan SY070201 Hbit C3989 No Shaykun Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Kafr SY070203 Faqie C4052 No Nobol Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Heish SY070205 Kafr Basin C4111 No Idleb SY07 Harim SY0703 Dana SY070301 Burj Elnumra C4128 No Idleb SY07 Harim SY0703 Kafr SY070303 Abarita C4152 No Takharim Idleb SY07 Jisr- SY0704 Badama SY070401 Kherbet C4231 Yes Ash- Eljoz Shugur Idleb SY07 Jisr- SY0704 Janudiyeh SY070403 Maland C4259 No Ash- Shugur Idleb SY07 Ariha SY0705 Ariha SY070500 Majdaliya C4280 No Idleb SY07 Idleb SY0700 Maaret SY070005 Ram C4232 No Tamsrin Hamdan Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Ma'arrat SY070200 Halbeh C3966 No An Nu'man Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Ma'arrat SY070200 Harran C3970 No An Nu'man Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Ma'arrat SY070200 Maasaran C3980 Yes An Nu'man Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Khan SY070201 Um Zaytuna C3988 No Shaykun Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Khan SY070201 Baarbu C3992 No Shaykun Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Khan SY070201 Kafr Ein C3993 No Shaykun
27 IDP Movement and Market Monitoring Overview Report – January 2018
Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Kafr SY070203 Has C4058 No Nobol Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Heish SY070205 Abu Habbeh C4108 No Idleb SY07 Harim SY0703 Dana SY070301 Tilaada C4124 No Idleb SY07 Harim SY0703 Armanaz SY070305 Hafasraja C4178 No Idleb SY07 Jisr- SY0704 Janudiyeh SY070403 Yaqubiyeh C4256 No Ash- Shugur Idleb SY07 Ariha SY0705 Ariha SY070500 Kafrlata C4283 No Idleb SY07 Idleb SY0700 Idleb SY070000 Qminas C3876 No Idleb SY07 Idleb SY0700 Maaret SY070005 Ram C3941 No Tamsrin Hamdan Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Ma'arrat SY070200 Babilla C3964 No An Nu'man Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Ma'arrat SY070200 Hraki C3969 No An Nu'man Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Ma'arrat SY070200 Barsa C3975 No An Nu'man Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Ma'arrat SY070200 Kafruma C3984 No An Nu'man Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Khan SY070201 Qasabiyeh C3986 No Shaykun Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Kafr SY070203 Um Nir C4059 No Nobol Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Kafr SY070203 Kafr Nobol C4068 Yes Nobol Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Kafr SY070203 Kawkabeh C4072 No Nobol Idleb SY07 Idleb SY0700 Maaret SY070005 Zardana C3938 No Tamsrin Mashehad Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Ma'arrat SY070200 Thahrat C3967 No An Talamnas Nu'man Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Ma'arrat SY070200 Jarjnaz C3977 No An Nu'man Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Ma'arrat SY070200 Maar C3981 No An Shamsheh Nu'man Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Ma'arrat SY070200 Qaratli C3982 No An Nu'man Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Kafr SY070203 Qoqfin C4064 No Nobol Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Kafr SY070203 Lweibdeh C4074 No Nobol Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Heish SY070205 Maysruneh C4113 No
28 IDP Movement and Market Monitoring Overview Report – January 2018
Idleb SY07 Jisr- SY0704 Janudiyeh SY070403 NA CP000300 No Ash- Shugur Idleb SY07 Jisr- SY0704 Janudiyeh SY070403 Az-Zawf 1 CP000330 No Ash- (Sham) Shugur Idleb SY07 Jisr- SY0704 Janudiyeh SY070403 Az-Zawf 3 CP000289 No Ash- (Al Ikhaa) Shugur Idleb SY07 Jisr- SY0704 Janudiyeh SY070403 NA CP000241 No Ash- Shugur Idleb SY07 Idleb SY0700 Maaret SY070005 NA CP000402 No Tamsrin Idleb SY07 Idleb SY0700 Idleb SY070000 Sijer - C3873 No Bqesemtoh Idleb SY07 Idleb SY0700 Maaret SY070005 Kafr - C3942 No Tamsrin Kafrehmul Idleb SY07 Idleb SY0700 Maaret SY070005 Haranbush C3943 No Tamsrin Idleb SY07 Idleb SY0700 Maaret SY070005 Kelly C3949 No Tamsrin Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Kafr SY070203 Maarzita C4066 No Nobol Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Kafr SY070203 Karsaa C4073 No Nobol Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Heish SY070205 Maar Hattat C4112 No Idleb SY07 Ariha SY0705 Ariha SY070500 Orm Eljoz C4269 No Idleb SY07 Ariha SY0705 Ariha SY070500 Mseibin C4281 No Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Ma'arrat SY070200 Dana C3965 No An Nu'man Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Khan SY070201 Abdin C3990 Yes Shaykun Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Kafr SY070203 Shorlin C4053 No Nobol Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Kafr SY070203 Milaja C4060 No Nobol Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Kafr SY070203 Maar Tesin C4063 No Nobol Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Kafr SY070203 Ftireh C4070 No Nobol Idleb SY07 Ariha SY0705 Ariha SY070500 Maarbalit C4285 No Idleb SY07 Ariha SY0705 Ariha SY070500 Moataf C4287 No Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Ma'arrat SY070200 Kanayes C3956 No An Nu'man Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Ma'arrat SY070200 Hazzan C3960 No An Nu'man Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Ma'arrat SY070200 Ghadqa C3963 No An Nu'man
29 IDP Movement and Market Monitoring Overview Report – January 2018
Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Ma'arrat SY070200 Tal Kersyan C3971 No An Nu'man Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Khan SY070201 Nqeir C3991 No Shaykun Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Kafr SY070203 Jbala C4050 No Nobol Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Kafr SY070203 Basqala C4061 No Nobol Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Kafr SY070203 Maar C4071 No Nobol Tahroma Idleb SY07 Ariha SY0705 Ariha SY070500 Maarzaf C4279 No Idleb SY07 Al Ma'ra SY0702 Ma'arrat SY070200 Western- C6597 No An Nuhiyeh Nu'man
30